Dr. Kiehl’s Paradox

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Back in 2007, in a paper published in GRL entitled “Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity” Jeffrey Kiehl noted a curious paradox. All of the various different climate models operated by different groups were able to do a reasonable job of emulating the historical surface temperature record. In…

You don’t want to see sausage or climate policy being made

Tom Nelson points this out – IPCC sausage-making details: Saudi Arabia cautioned against “giving policy makers the message that CO2 drives global warming” Summary of the Twelfth Session of the IPCC WGI and IPCC-36, 23-26 September 2013, Stockholm, Sweden Saudi Arabia proposed clarifying that evidence of future climate change is based on models and simulations…

Why Climate Science is Fallible

Guest essay by Dr. David Deming We live in a scientific age. The sciences are viewed as the only real sources of authoritative information. Knowledge derived from other epistemological systems is regarded as having less credibility. The conclusions of philosophy are untestable, and religion is often cynically interpreted as nothing more than superstition and myth.…

McIntyre on IPCC’s switching the pea under the thimble

Fixing the Facts – By Steve McIntyre Figure 1.4 of the Second Order Draft clearly showed the discrepancy between models and observations, though IPCC’s covering text reported otherwise. I discussed this in a post leading up to the IPCC Report, citing Ross McKitrick’s article in National Post and Reiner Grundmann’s post at Klimazweiberl. Needless to…

If climate data were a stock, now would be the time to SELL

Using a financial markets’ trend-analyses tool to assess temporal trend-changes in global surface temperature anomalies (GSTA). Guest essay by David Dohbro Heated debates (pun intended) are currently on going regarding if the Earth’s surface temperatures continue to rise, have remained steady, or are decreasing over the past decade or so. To argue for or against…

Confidence tricks between IPCC AR4 and AR5

Patrick Carlberg writes: I can’t assess the validity of the values from the climate models presented in AR5 (mostly due to lack of time). But I can tell you there are tricks used in the way they interpret the statistical inference. One of the key points in the new IPCC report is that the CO2…