The Week That Was: 2013-09-14 (September 14, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week: “What is wanted is not the will to believe, but the will to find out, which is the exact opposite.”- Bertrand Russell [H/t William Ready]
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Number of the Week: 90%
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Major New Report on Climate Science — Says Global Warming Is Not a Crisis
The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) will release a major new report on climate-change science produced by an international team of 40 scientists at a press conference on September 17 at the James R. Thompson Center in downtown Chicago.
The new report, titled Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science, challenges what its authors say are the overly alarmist reports of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose next report is due out later this month.
| What: | Press conference announcing release of Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science |
| When: | 10:00 a.m., Tuesday, September 17. |
| Where: | James R. Thompson Center
100 West Randolph Street Press Room (15th Floor) Chicago, Illinois USA |
| Who: | Lead author S. Fred Singer, Ph.D., professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, Chairman of the Science and Environmental Policy Project
Lead author Craig Idso, Ph.D., Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change Co-author Willie Soon, Ph.D., Chief Science Advisor, Science and Public Policy Institute |
| Media: | Open to all credentialed press |
Copies of a Summary for Policymakers, an executive summary, and the entire book (unbound) will be available to reporters at the news conference. All three documents will be available for free online following the news conference.
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Book Launch Luncheon, Wednesday September 18, 11:30 to 1:30pm
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Presenters: S. Fred Singer, Craig Idso, and Willie Soon
The Heartland Institute, One South Wacker Drive # 2740; Chicago, IL 60606
Cost: $15.00; Contact Tonya Houston at thouston@heartonland.org or call 312-377-4000
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Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Science the U.N. Will Exclude from its Next Climate Report
September 23, Noon, Heritage Foundation Allison Auditorioum
214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington DC, (202) 546-4400
Lead author Bob Carter and Co-author Willie Soon, Joseph Bast, hosted by Robert Gordon
Lead authors Fred Singer and Bob Carter will be making presentations in Europe and in California. Details to follow.
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
IPCC: On September 27, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is scheduled to release the first part of its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), including the politically negotiated Summary for Policymakers (SPM), and the Working Group I section that contains the science supporting the SPM. This is a departure from prior releases when the SPM came out long before the scientific section was ready for release.
Much has happened since the last major report, AR4, was released in 2007. Numerous scientists exposed glaring IPCC mistakes, Climategate exposed game playing of many of the participants, etc. Probably most importantly, nature has undermined the credibility of the IPCC and the entire climate establishment and their models by refusing to allow the globe to warm, over 15 years on the surface and about a decade in the atmosphere. This failure to warm is in spite of human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) continuing to increase, directly contradicting the prior claims of the IPCC and its followers that CO2 is the control knob of climate. Of the industrial countries, only the United States has significantly reduced CO2 emissions – without any governmental mandates to do so.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal and on the web site of Anthony Watts, Matt Ridley reports he has seen a key prediction in the new documents – the IPCC will reduce the most extreme projection of warming from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide somewhat, 30%, as compared with its 2007 projections.
Writing on his web site, The Reference Frame, Luboš Motl is far from impressed. Motl thinks that based on the scientific [physical] evidence the warming from a doubling of CO2 would about 0.5 to 1.5 deg C. This is different than the values obtained by using computer models that have not been validated. Also, Motl is disturbed by the IPCC’s continued use of unsubstantiated probabilities in making its projections.
We shall have to wait to see what the final documents actually contain. Please see Article # 1 and links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.
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SCC: Monday marks the last day for public comment to the Department of Energy on the Social Costs or Carbon (SCC) as recalculated by US government agencies, without legislative authority. The specific issue seems trivial – the electricity use by microwave ovens. But this is how some agencies now operate. Establish regulations on a trivial issue, then slowly expand such regulations to other non-trivial areas until no one dare question the authority of the agencies for asserting such questionable power. One can label it as industrial policy by bureaucracy. The strategy was successfully employed by the EPA and the Corps of Engineers in regulating privately owned properties, labeled wetlands, even though many of the labeled wetlands had no water.
Several Washington think-tanks are submitting comments, including the Heritage Foundation, CATO, and the Competitive Enterprise Institute. One issue is sea level rise. Is it proper for the government agencies to apply future sea level rise from projected global warming from CO2 emissions to US industries when US emissions are falling and countries such as China are the principal sources of increasing emissions?
Another main issues is the appropriate discount rate, how to value the possible future harm in today’s economy? The lower the discount rate the higher possible future harm is valued in today’s economy. The New York Times carried an interesting article presenting the issue as being a moral vs. business issue. The moral standpoint will be a low discount rate, thus a high present value assigned to future warming. The business standpoint is a high discount rate with a low present value.
This is the logical fallacy of a false dilemma. The real moral issue is what right do government agencies have for imposing costs on industry and the public for emitting CO2 when the government agencies have failed to produce a valid climate model that has been shown to successfully predict future global warming? At this point, it has not been scientifically established if CO2 emissions are a net cost or a net benefit. The NIPCC reports have reviewed thousands of studies showing increased atmospheric CO2 is a benefit. SEPP is submitting its comments on SCC, which will probably differ from most. Please see links under Social Cost of Carbon.
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Supreme Court: The US Supreme Court begins its fall session on October 7. It may announce its decision of whether or not to hear the challenges to the EPA Endangerment Finding at that time, or sometime afterwards.
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Australia’s Election: The coalition that opposed Australia’s carbon tax has announced the dismantling of significant climate change programs. But it does not have clear control of the Senate. Thus, the status of the carbon tax is not yet clear. Please see links under Questioning Green Elsewhere and Cap and Trade and Carbon Taxes.
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Benefits of Smart Drilling: The Wall Street Journal has two articles on the great benefits to the poor from the US oil and gas revolution. The revolution can be described as obtaining oil and gas from dense shale, deep underground by applying precision directional drilling, multi-port hydraulic fracturing, insertion of sand or small ceramics to keep fractures open, and use of selected chemicals to promote continued oil gas flow.
Many politicians oppose the revolution, preferring to believe the false claims of the Sierra Club and other extreme environmental groups. The actions of these politicians and environmental groups demonstrates how insensitive they are to the plight of less fortunate humans. Please see Articles # 2 and #3.
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Demolishing Icons? On his web site, Bernard Lewin has begun a series to investigate the various depictions of temperatures over the past 1000 years, and longer, that have appeared in IPCC publications. The first of the series centers on the writings of H.H. Lamb, particularly the Medieval Warm Period. Lewin’s analysis may prove to be illuminating and controversial. Please see link under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Global Cooling? Several articles and web posts have appeared proclaiming global cooling. The authors doing so are using the same logical fallacy as many global warming advocates – the hasty generalizations. Very simply, the existing data has too short a term to declare a trend. Warming has stopped, we do not know if the warming will resume, or if temperatures will remain roughly steady, or if there will be definitive cooling. Certainly, the failure of the Arctic Ice to melt to the extent that it did last year is not a trend. That said, solar scientists may have theoretical reasons for stating the earth will cool. Please see links under Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.
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Responsibility: Judith Curry has two posts on responsible conduct in research enterprises and developing a standard for policy relevant science. In the latter post she quotes extensively from Ian Boyd, who is science advisor for the UK Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs. Boyd points out how bias often enters into government sponsored research, no matter how unintentional. Curry concludes her post with: JC request of the IPCC: Please replace Rachendra Pachauri with Ian Boyd.
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Additions and Corrections: Last week, TWTW carried an article by Fred Singer in the American Thinker on data trends. Unfortunately, Singer omitted the clause that the spike in temperatures in 1998 should be discounted because it is widely accepted that it was the result of a strong El Nino. Otherwise, his argument stands, that surface temperature trends prior to around 2000 may be over-estimated.
Vincent Gray continued the discussion on hypothesis testing as stated by Feynman, which was challenged by Professor Cramer, who stated that the null (no association between two phenomena) must be tested. Gray writes:
“I object to the reformulation of Feynman’s argument on statistics by Professor Cramer
He does not explain how it is possible to test for a “level of confidence”.
If a scientific theory is successful in predicting all possible future behaviour you are justified in rejecting the null hypothesis and to have confidence in it
Sometimes a theory is only successful in a limited range of circumstances. You may have confidence within this range but not outside it where the null hypothesis is accepted.
The IPCC claims “levels of confidence” in its theories which are no more than the personal opinions of “experts” who usually have a conflict of interest. None of the models has been shown capable of successful prediction of future climate behaviour. The null hypothesis still stands.
Until the theories have been shown to successfully predict a range of future climate behaviour over all the circumstances for which they are claimed to be valid they need to be rejected and the null hypothesis accepted.”
[Behaviour is spelled the New Zealand way.]
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Number of the Week: 90% According to energy economist Mark Perry, data from the Energy Information Administration shows that in May the total energy produced in the US is was 90% of total consumption. The last time the percentage was that high was in September 1987. The change is dramatic from about 70% in 2006-7, when Washington refused to expand production in the Federal government controlled lands of Alaska, falsely claiming it would not help the US. Although the difference between production and consumption swings widely during the year, Perry’s five graphs illustrate the US oil and gas revolution – which many politicians and environmentalists desire to stop.
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change
A forthcoming report points lowers estimates on global warming
By Matt Ridley, WSJ, Sep 13, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324549004579067532485712464.html
2. Fracking and the Poor
The natural gas boom may be America’s best antipoverty program.
Editorial, WSJ, Sep 6, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323734304578543613292394192.html?mod=ITP_opinion_2
3. More on Fracking and the Poor
The U.S. oil and gas boom added $1,200 to disposable income in 2012.
Editorial, WSJ, Sep 10, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324094704579065432802151184.html
4. Japan and the Fate of Nuclear Power Radiation phobia prevents a rational response to Fukushima.
By Holman Jenkins, WSJ, Sep 10, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324094704579066751347436222.html
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
IPCC and the end of summer
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Sep 11, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/11/ipcc-and-the-end-of-summer/
[SEPP Comment: A lengthy post on the improper use of proxy data including tree rings and certain lake sediments.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Climate Change Reconsidered II to be Released on September 17
By Jim Lakely, Somewhat Reasonable, Aug 29, 2013
The Earth’s Energy Imbalance,
By Vincent Gray, NZ Climate Truth Newsletter No 315, Sep 11, 2013
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/the-earths-energy-imbalance.html
Beating the IPCC with Their Own Numbers
By Topher Field, American Thinker, Sep 13, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/09/beating_the_ipcc_with_their_own_numbers.html
[SEPP Comment: An article by the producer of the amusing video 50 to 1.]
IPCC AR5 Renews Demand Governments Buy Their Climate Change Pig In A Poke
By Dr Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Sep 12, 2013
http://drtimball.com/2013/ipcc-ar5-renews-demand-governments-buy-their-climate-change-pig-in-a-poke/
Please, please, believe
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 14, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/9/14/please-please-believe.html
[SEPP Comment: The climate establishment is getting desperate to have the public believe it.]
How and why great news about Chukchi polar bears has been suppressed
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 8, 2013
Defending the Orthodoxy
Economic woes may mute impact of U.N. report saying warming manmade
By Alister Doyle and Nina Chestney, Reuters, Sep 6, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/06/us-ipcc-climate-idUSBRE9850JM20130906
IPCC Calls in Moral Philosopher as People Cool on Global Warming
By Ben Webster, Times, via GWPF, Sep 13, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/ipcc-calls-moral-philosopher-people-cool-global-warming/
Questioning the Orthodoxy
An unequivocal rejection of the scientific method
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 10, 2013
Selling Fear Is A Risky Business: Part Last
By William Brigs, His Blog, Sep 12, 2013
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=9005
[SEPP Comment: A statistician’s assessment of risk. Somewhat technical.]
A science-based rebuttal to global warming alarmism
By Steve Goreham, Washington Times, Sep 10, 2013
Man Made Climate Change Arguments Don’t Survive Scrutiny
By Art Horn, ICECAP, Sep 11, 2013
Global Warming To Cause New Crisis. What Will It Be?
By William Briggs, His Blog, Sep 9, 2013
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=8981
[SEPP Comment: Makes the point that the use of the term global warming paused implies the belief that global warming will resume.]
The end of Sternonomics?
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 12, 2013
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/9/12/the-end-of-sternonomics.html
[SEPP Comment: An end to data manipulation by discount rate?]
Into the Dustbin
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Sep 10, 2013
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/09/10/into-the-dustbin/
[SEPP Comment: See the three links immediately below.]
Laframboise’s new book on the IPCC
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 9, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/09/laframboises-new-book-on-the-ipcc/#more-12909
A new book on the IPCC and Pachauri from Donna Laframboise
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 10, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/10/a-new-book-on-the-ipcc-and-pachauri-from-donna-laframboise/
Chapter and verse on the Great Climate Con
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Sep 11, 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/thomas/2013/09/chapter-and-verse-on-the-great-climate-con
Reality intrudes on a hot dream
The globe cools, and Al Gore’s ‘Climate Reality’ does, too
Editorial, Washington Times, Sep 5, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/5/editorial-reality-intrudes-on-a-hot-dream/
United Nations’ Panel Admits Global Cooling?
Editorial, IBD, Sep 9, 2013
Social Benefits of Carbon
Greens Anti-Coal War Turns Heat on World’s Poor
By Peter Glover, Energy Tribune, Sep 13, 2013
Carbon Price Distorts
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Sep 13, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/09/13/carbon-price-distorts/
Social Costs of Carbon
Counting the Cost of Fixing the Future
By Eduardo Porter, NYT, Sep 10, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/business/counting-the-cost-of-fixing-the-future.html
A Further Look at the Social Cost of Carbon
By Paul Knappenberger and Patrick Michaels, CATO, Sep 13, 2013
http://www.cato.org/blog/further-look-social-cost-carbon
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Research & Commentary: Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide
By James Taylor and Taylor Smith, Heartland, Sep 12, 2013
http://heartland.org/policy-documents/research-commentary-social-cost-carbon
Biz groups, GOP attack ‘social cost of carbon’ on multiple fronts
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Sep 13, 2013
Problems in the Orthodoxy
IPCC AR5 will reduce sensitivity by 30% or so
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Sep 14, 2013
http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/09/ipcc-ar5-will-reduce-sensitivity-by-30.html
Terrifying Flat Global Temperature Crisis Threatens To Disrupt U.N. Climate Conference Agenda
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Sep 10, 2013
Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds
By Maxim Lott, Fox News, Sep 12, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Link to paper previously discussed in TWTW: Overestimated global warming
over the past 20 years
By Fyfe, Gillett and Zwiers, Nature Climate Change, Sep 2013
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Climate%20model%20results/over%20estimate.pdf
The Climate Science Capitulation Begins…Hans von Storch: “We Definitely Have Seen Less Warming Than Expected”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 11, 2013
PR Firm Enlisted to Convince Leaders to Ignore Public
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Sep 12, 2013
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/09/12/pr-firm-enlisted-to-convince-leaders-to-ignore-public/
Running on empty
By Lorne Gunter, Sun News, CA, Sep 11, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/straighttalk/archives/2013/09/20130911-073919.html
Seeking a Common Ground
A standard for policy-relevant science
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 12, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/12/a-standard-for-policy-relevant-science/#more-12949
Responsible Conduct in the Global Research Enterprise
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 11, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/11/responsible-conduct-in-the-global-research-enterprise/#more-12932
Global Warming Without Fear
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Sep 13, 2013
Millennium Idols: smash the Hockey Stick but smash the others too!
By Bernie Lewin, Enthusiasm, Scepticism, and Science [H/t Bishop Hill]
Lowering Standards
National Geographic and the Statue of Liberty
By Marita Noon and Michael Economides, Energy Tribune, Sep 10, 2013
Naomi Oreskes, Professor of the History of Science
Department of the History of Science, Harvard University
http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~hsdept/bios/oreskes.html
[SEPP Comment: How low can you go?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Teaching Climate Change to Skeptics
By Carmen Nobel, Harvard Business School, Sep 9, 2013 [H/t Cork Hyden]
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/7319.html
[SEPP Comment: Harvard Business School finds the government money too rich to pass up. The analogy to the obesity problem is a complete joke.]
Questioning European Green
Australia’s U-Turn: Is Germany Next?
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Sep 9, 2013
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/09/australias-u-turn-is-germany-next.php
Environmentalism: The Road To A Primitive Existence
Editorial, IBD, Sep 11, 2013
Germany Could Face Electricity Customer Revolt
By Bill Sweet, IEEE, Sep 9, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/policy/germany-could-face-electricity-customer-revolt
Brussels fears European ‘industrial massacre’ sparked by energy costs
Europe’s industry is being ravaged by exorbitant energy costs and an over-valued euro, blighting efforts to reverse years of global manufacturing decline.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph, UK, Sep 8, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Clean Energy Damaging Europe’s Competitiveness
By Ante Batovic, Global Risk Insights, Oil Price.com, Sep 12, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/Clean-Energy-Damaging-Europes-Competitiveness.html
MPs Attack Impact of Climate Change Act on Families & Industry
By Staff Writer, GWPF, Sep 11, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/mps-attack-impact-climate-change-act-families-industry/
I urge the minister, in the light of all the evidence that has come out about the lack of any change in temperature over the past 15 years, to think again about the Climate Change Act and to revoke it, amend it and support home owners and British businesses. –David T. C. Davies, MP
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Australia liberated from their long national green nightmare
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 7, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/07/australia-liberated-from-their-long-national-green-nightmare/
Australia rips up climate-change policies
By Michael Slezak, New Scientist, Sep 10, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Bad news for the climate? The climate supports a particular political party?]
Coalition takes axe to climate programs
By Sid Maher and Lauren Wilson, The Australian, Sep 11, 2013 [H/t Stefan Björklund]
Coalition starts axing Australia’s carbon-bureaucrat-machinery
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 11, 2013
Climate Change and Property Rights
By Sierra Rayne, American Thinker, Sep 10, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/09/climate_change_and_property_rights.html
97% Consensus
97% Climate consensus ‘denial’: the debunkers debunked
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Sep 9, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/09/97-climate-consensus-denial-the-debunkers-debunked/
‘Consensus’ on Climate Change just PR Campaign
By Andrew Montford, Austrailian, Via GWPF, Sep 13, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/andrew-montford-consensus-climate-change-pr-campaign/
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
More settled science: Climate change/warming speeds up tree life cycles instead of causing migration
By Anthony Watts, Sep 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Could it be that global warming/climate change is not occurring as rapidly as many claimed?]
Spread of crop pests threatens global food security as Earth warms
By Staff Writers, Exeter, UK (SPX), Sep 10, 2013
[SEPP Comment: A warming Northern Hemisphere and enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide allows for growing food crops further north. Is it surprising that crop pests follow?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Helping Out the [New York] Times
By Paul Knappenberger and Patrick Michaels, CATO, Sep 10, 2013
http://www.cato.org/blog/helping-out-times
[SEPP Comment: Reporting at the Gray Lady is not what it once was.]
A Curious Climate Analogy – Badly Reported by the NYT
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Sep 8, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/08/noaas-curious-climate-analogy-badly-reported/
[SEPP Comment: More reporting of imagination rather than imaginative reporting.]
Making up historical tornado data
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 12, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/12/making-up-historical-tornado-data/
Global warming has increased risk of record heat
By Rob Jordan for Stanford News, (SPX) Sep 11, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Global_warming_has_increased_risk_of_record_heat_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Exaggerating the weather events in the US while ignoring the rest of the world. For weather stations with records dating earlier than the 1930, 2012 was not the hottest year on record.]
New Film Shows Hans Schellnhuber Claiming “Himalayan 2035 Glacier Melt Was “Very Easy To Calculate”
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 8, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Amazing statements from the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber.]
Changing Weather
Atlantic hurricane season: A record-breaking dud?
By Tom Brown, Reuters, Sep 9, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.msn.com/science-technology/atlantic-hurricane-season-a-record-breaking-dud
Updated Major Hurricane Drought Figure
By Roger Pielke Jr. His Blog,
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/09/updated-major-hurricane-drought-figure.html
Missing Extreme Weather: German Meteorologists Confirm Global ACE 2013 Far Below Normal
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 13, 2013
Changing Climate
Siberian Arctic Is Not Warming After All – July-Temps Are Hardly Different From Those Thousands Of Years Ago!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 7, 2013
Changing Seas
PDO, ENSO and sea level rise
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 13, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/13/contribution-of-pdo-to-global-mean-sea-level-trends/#more-12959
Breaking deep-sea waves reveal a potential mechanism for global ocean mixing
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 11, 2013
Insight into marine life’s ability to adapt to climate change
By Staff Writers, (SPX) Sep 10, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Marine life has been adapting for hundreds of millions of years.]
Clues in coral bleaching mystery
By Staff Writers, Stanford CA (SPX), Sep 11, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Clues_in_coral_bleaching_mystery_999.html
Deep-ocean carbon sinks
By Gary Galluzzo ,UI News, (SPX) Sep 11, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Deep_ocean_carbon_sinks_999.html
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic sea ice up 60 percent in 2013
By Staff Writers, Fox News, Sep 9, 2013, [H/t Rob Sheldon]
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/09/09/arctic-sea-ice-up-60-percent-in-2013/
And now it’s global COOLING! Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year
Almost a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012
BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013
Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month
By David Rose, Mail, UK, Sep 7, 2013
Esa’s Cryosat mission observes continuing Arctic winter ice decline
By Jonathan Amos, BBC, Sep 11, 2013
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23964372
Global warming? No, actually we’re cooling, claim scientists
A cold Arctic summer has led to a record increase in the ice cap, leading experts to predict a period of global cooling.
By Hayley Dixon, Telegraph, UK, Sep 8, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
Confirmed: Greenland reached hottest temperature in modern record this summer
By Jason Samenow, Washington Post, Sep 10, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: The modern record started in 1958. The all-time record high was in 1915, at 4.2 deg C or about 7.4 deg F higher (rounding is not exact).]
Underlying ocean melts ice shelf, speeds up glacier movement
By Staff Writer, EurekAlert!, Sep 12, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-09/ps-uom091213.php
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Growing trees 40% faster with the help of the right bacteria and fungi
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 12, 2013
The Climate-Grain Production Relationship Quantified
By David Archibald, WUWT, Sep 8, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/08/the-climate-grain-production-relationship-quantified/
[SEPP Comment: Reviewing the concept that solar cycles influence grain prices.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Modeling the East Asian-Western North Pacific Monsoon & ENSO
Reference: Wu, B. and Zhou, T. 2013. Relationships between the East Asian-Western North Pacific Monsoon and ENSO simulated by FGOALS-s2. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 30: 713-725.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/sep/10sep2013a1.html
The Fate of Peatland Carbon in a Potentially Warming World
Reference: Charman, D.J. et al. 2013. Climate-related changes in peatland carbon accumulation during the last millennium. Biogeosciences 10: 929-944
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/sep/10sep2013a4.html
Southern Ocean Water Mass Circulation and Characteristics
Reference: Sallee, J.-B., Shuckburgh, E., Bruneau, N., Meijers, A.J.S., Bracegirdle, T.J., Wang, Z. and Roy, T. 2013. Assessment of Southern Ocean water mass circulation and characteristics in CMIP5 models: Historical bias and forcing response. Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans) 118: 1830-1844.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/sep/11sep2013a2.html
The Future of Wheat Production on the North China Plain
Reference: Tao, F. and Zhang, Z. 2013. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170: 146-165.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/sep/11sep2013a3.html
Litigation Issues
ATI Files Suit to Compel the University of Arizona to Produce Records Related to So-Called “Hockey Stick” Global Warming Research
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 9, 2013
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
A carbon tax would make no sense
By Richard Rahn, Washington Times, Sep 2, 2013
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/2/rahn-a-carbon-tax-would-make-no-sense/
Abbott government begins process to repeal carbon tax; says pressure on Labor to honour mandate
By Staff Writers, ABC, AU, Sep 9, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-09/abbott-carbon-tax/4945330
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Sequestration nation: DoD doles out $7 billion in wind-energy contracts
By Erika Johnsen, Hot Air, Sep 10, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA to revise climate rule for new power plants; will still require carbon capture
By Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, Sep 11, 2013
States accuse EPA of exceeding its authority with climate change plan
By Ben Goad, The Hill, Sep 13, 2013
Rep. Trey Gowdy Grills Lisa Jackson about ‘Contact me at home’ Email to Lobbyist
By Marlo Lewis, Global Warming.org, Sep 11, 2013
Energy Issues – Non-US
Basic Power Gen Cost Information
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Sep 10, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/09/10/basic-power-gen-cost-information/
Nominations for the Top 5 Energy Policy Shockers
By Staff Writers, Liberum Capital, Sep 13, 2013 [H/t Bishop Hill]
http://www.liberumcapital.com/pdf/fK9uswXJ.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Blunders may be a better word than shockers.]
Prepare for the Chinese Energy Juggernaut
By: Robert Rapier, Energy Tribune, Sep 11, 2013
http://www.energytribune.com/79147/prepare-for-the-chinese-energy-juggernaut#sthash.3pnW1lHh.dpbs
U.K. scientists say shale gas’ carbon footprint on par with others
By Staff Writers, London (UPI), Sep 9, 2013
Energy Issues — US
Five charts that help put ‘Saudi America’s’ shale revolution into perspective
By Mark Perry, AEIdeas, Sep 6, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The US produces about 90% of the energy it uses.]
ACC’s Dooley discusses impact of shale revolution on chemical industry profits, growth
Transcript by Staff Writers, EETV, Sep 10, 2013
http://www.eenews.net/tv/videos/1721/transcript
Groups: EIA Renewable Energy Data Doesn’t Reflect “Real World
By Sonal Patel, Power News, Sep 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: EIA did not project as much growth in green power as the lobbyists want. But it all depends on government subsidies and mandates. The green power advocates are partially right, but not in what they claim. The EIA does not properly estimate the burden green power places on other producers of electricity.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Obama’s Keystone Pipeline Delay Boosts Energy Cost With No Benefit
Editorial, IBD, Sep 12, 2013
Return of King Coal?
China Bans New Coal-Fired Plants in 3 Regions
By Louise Watt, AP, Sep 12, 2013
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-bans-coal-fired-plants-regions-20232209
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
NREL Report: Cheaper Chinese Solar Panels Not Due to Low-Cost Labor, Subsidies
By Sonal Patel, Power News, Sep 12, 2013
Link to paper: Assessing the drivers of regional trends in solar photovoltaic manufacturing:
By Goodrich, et al. Energy & Environmental Science, Sep 5, 2013
http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2013/ee/c3ee40701b#!divAbstract
Chinese Zombies Emerging After Years of Solar Subsidies
By Staff Writers, Bloomberg, Sep 9, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Report: $603 million in Energy Dept. biofuels funding fails to meet goals
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Sep 12, 2013
Link to Report, Audit Report
By Inspector General, DoE, Sep 2013
http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/09/f2/IG-0893.pdf
As of March 2013, the Department had obligated over $929 million, including $561 million from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, for the 29 projects, and had expended approximately $603 million (65 percent) of those funds.
BIO’s Greenwood discusses timeline for EPA proposal on 2014 volume limits
Transcript by Staff Writers, Sep 9, 2013
http://www.eenews.net/tv/videos/1720/transcript
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Unwanted Exotics
By Eric Peters, America Spectator, Sep 12, 2013
http://spectator.org/archives/2013/09/12/unwanted-exotics
California Dreaming
California’s Middle Class Faces Slow Death by Green Laws
By Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, Sep 11, 2013
Environmental Industry
Same Old: Procter & Gamble bans two ingredients— but not based on science
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Sep 12, 2013
If Greenpeace USA (née Ozone Action) is Proud of its old ███████████ Work, Why do they Feel a Sudden Need to Hide It?
By Russell Cook, Gelbspan Files, Sep 6, 2013
http://gelbspanfiles.com/?p=890
Other Scientific News
Alaska tundra shows surprising resilience after unprecedented fire
By Staff Writers, Fairbanks AK (SPX), Sep 10, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Doubtful the fire was unprecedented.]
Eleven Spacecraft Show Interstellar Wind Changed Direction Over 40 Years
By Karen C. Fox for Goddard Space Flight Center
Greenbelt, MD (SPX) Sep 10, 2013
NASA’s Voyager first spacecraft to exit solar system
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), Sept 12, 2013
http://www.space-travel.com/reports/NASAs_Voyager_first_spacecraft_to_exit_solar_system_999.html
New paper says ‘No evidence of planetary influence on solar activity’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 7, 2013
UH Professor Offers Insight Into Saharan Dust Migration
By Staff Writers, Houston TX (SPX), Sep 10, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/UH_Professor_Offers_Insight_Into_Saharan_Dust_Migration_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Does the EPA interpretation of the Clean Air Act include control of dust from the Sahara?]
Other News that May Be of Interest
How people argue with research they don’t like
By Dylan Matthews, Washington Post, Sep 12, 2013 [H/t Tom Sheahen]
[SEPP Comment: Clever graphic.]
Flights over Pacific highest-producers of ozone
By Staff Writers, Cambridge, Mass,. (UPI) Sep 5, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Flights_over_Pacific_highest-producers_of_ozone_999.html
New data reveals that the average height of European males has grown by 11cm in just over a century
By Staff Writers, Essex, UK (SPX), Sep 10, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Is global warming the cause?]
Water-purification plant the size of a fast-food ketchup packet saves lives
By Staff Writers, Indianapolis IN (SPX), Sep 13, 2013
Wanted: Remedial education for museum curators
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Sep 13 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/thomas/2013/09/wanted-remedial-education-for-museum-curators
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Goofed Skyscraper Architect Rafael Vinoly Blames Climate Change For Building Design Woes!
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 7, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The photos in the article in Mail, linked, are quite striking.]
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Yes. More “Singing” and the “sooner” the better!
Economic woes may mute impact of U.N. report saying warming manmade
By Alister Doyle and Nina Chestney, Reuters, Sep 6, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/06/us-ipcc-climate-idUSBRE9850JM20130906
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Not one word in the entire article about ‘THE PAUSE’ in temperature. Only one comment too which also applies to the article: “This IPCC report should be consigned to the dustbin….”
” Certainly, the failure of the Arctic Ice to melt to the extent that it did last year is not a trend. ”
Indeed not. But this might be …
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/on-identifying-inter-decadal-variation-in-nh-sea-ice/
[Behaviour is spelled the New Zealand way.] -> [Behaviour is spelled correctly.]
@ Greg Goodman…I had come to think of the change in the sea ice as a system reaching a low point, and then staying within a range. I even made mention of that a few times several years ago. That was my response to the warmist graphs that always showed such a smooth downward trend as if nothing else was going on within the system. That is why so many of the warmists were so cocksure about the demise of Arctic sea ice, and the many other ignorant views that they have come to hold as beliefs. Their beliefs so blinded them that they could no longer see what was right in front of them.
Anthony Watts is brilliant in presenting scientific discussions about problems in Climate. His site has been a part of my journey towards skepticism.
He distracts from his creditability by highlighting Heartland/NIPPC “reports”. The scientists involved are legitimate. But Heartland does actually what the UN and liberals do. Science by consensus is bad…we do not need our own report.
I love this site…..But Climate Skepticism does not need a political element. It’s your site Anthony….the best climate site…please don’t pollute it with politics.
Blue Sky:
re your post at September 16, 2013 at 1:24 pm
NIPCC Reports are NOT “politics”. Any suggestion that they are is either mistaken or is “politics”.
Richard
Richard….Heartand did a billboard comparing AGW Alarmists to mass murders. Thats not political?
Blue Sky:
re your post at September 16, 2013 at 1:54 pm
Heartland is NOT the NIPCC. By pretending it is you are being “political”.
Richard
Blue Sky says:
September 16, 2013 at 1:54 pm
Richard….Heartand did a billboard comparing AGW Alarmists to mass murders….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Heartland was correct in that comparison even if the truth is not palatable to the squeamish. Dr. R.J. Rummel has a name for it.
DEMOCIDE: DEATH BY GOVERNMENT The 20th Century Democide was 169,202,000 Murdered by their own governments.
“Just to give perspective on this incredible murder by government, if all these bodies were laid head to toe, with the average height being 5′, then they would circle the earth ten times. Also, this democide murdered 6 times more people than died in combat in all the foreign and internal wars of the century.”
Think about Britain’s death by government:
Meanwhile the situation is slated to get even worse:
Government policy is responsible for those additional deaths in the last few winters. A quarter of Brits are living in fuel poverty as energy bills rocket: As energy prices go through the roof, shocking figures reveal one in four families has been plunged into fuel poverty.
If as some are predicting we are at the top of a warming cycle and about to head into cooling, the problems in the EU and Britain will only get worse and so will the political unrest.
Hiding from the truth because it unsettles us does not make it any less true.
Why U.S. Refiners Don’t Care if Keystone Gets Built
http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/a/SB10001424127887324324404579045060424047346?mg=reno64-wsj
http://grist.org/news/oil-refiners-dont-care-about-keystone-xl-anymore/
Debate Revs As Decision Stalls Over Oil Pipeline From Canada
http://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/npr/222958546/debate-revs-as-decision-stalls-over-oil-pipeline-from-canada
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/09/04/keystone-pipeline-obama-us-economy-column/2768185/
The last two articles have links to some very interesting takes on the subject.
“Several articles and web posts have appeared proclaiming global cooling. The authors doing so are using the same logical fallacy as many global warming advocates – the hasty generalizations. Very simply, the existing data has too short a term to declare a trend. Warming has stopped, we do not know if the warming will resume, or if temperatures will remain roughly steady, or if there will be definitive cooling.”
Not quite the case. The existing past data are maybe too short, but multiple instances of known periodicities strongly warrant the cooling forecast.
For instance the current solar cycle is in its peak period now and it is therefore sure the solar activity will descend at least until 2019 and will not exceed current activity at least until 2022. And because there’s known very significant direct causal dependence between solar activity and SST both in short-term and long-term sense, and because ocean covers most of the Earth, the solar activity shorterm forecast given by the solar cycle periodicity warrants a short-term cooling forecast. Such cooling period will add to the previous unsignificant cooling trend which stayed there despite the rebounding of solar activity from minima to current solar peak period, therefore the cooling trend will very likely become significant in the future. And it surely would happen under condition the next solar cycle will have simmilar magnitude as the current one (with practically lowest activity in the last 200 years).
Adding to tat the medium-term multidecadal cooling forecast is warranted by the current phase combination of PDO and AMO periodicity.
Richard,
http://www.nipccreport.org/about/about.html
Gail,
Your comments about murder by government because they don’t agree with skeptism is something I don’t want to be associated with.
We have to be better.
Blue Sky:
re your accusation at September 18, 2013 at 12:24 pm.
I have made NO claim of “murder by government”.
Please explain why you think I have with quotation or apologise.
Richard
Richard….
Please carefully reread my post.
The first part of my post was a reply to you and your denial of heartland being involved with Nipcc.
And I gave a link refuting your position.
The second part of my post…regarding “murder by government” was directed to Gail.
Blue Sky says: @ September 18, 2013 at 12:24 pm
Your comments about murder by government because they don’t agree with skeptism is something I don’t want to be associated with.
We have to be better.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
That is a warning to people who think governments/bureaucrats only have their best interest at heart.
Again from Dr Rummel.
BTW my mother was one of those innocent victims of over 4,000 secret and classified radiation experiments conducted by the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) and other government agencies… Exposing almost 200 cancer patients to high levels of radiation from cesium and cobalt. The AEC finally stopped this experiment in 1974.
Blue Sky:
Your post at September 18, 2013 at 1:16 pm says in full
OK. Thankyou for the clarification. I misunderstood your previous post and apologise for that.
Your link does NOT “refute{my} position”: that link CONFIRMS “MY POSITION”.
I copy your link to here so others can verify my reply for themselves.
http://www.nipccreport.org/about/about.html
At no time have I said, hinted or implied that the Heartland Institute (HI) is “involved” with the NIPCC.
I said to you at September 16, 2013 at 2:02 pm
The link says that HI publishes NIPCC Reports. That was never in dispute. Indeed, the above article says that.
The HI has provided no pressure, influence or contact with me pertaining to my contributions to NIPCC Reports, and I have no reason to think HI acted differently towards anybody else who was involved in compiling them. Indeed, my knowledge of Willie Soon and Fred Singer (NIPCC Lead Authors) induces me to think the work to compile the NIPCC Reports would have ceased if there had been such activity.
Richard