The Week That Was: 2013-08-31 (August 31, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week: Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.—Voltaire [H/t J.A. Curry & P.J. Webster]
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Number of the Week: 22
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Distortion of Science: The Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons published an article by Richard Lindzen, MIT Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, emeritus, explaining how the climate establishment has distorted science to serve political purposes. Among other points, Lindzen states climate science has become a source of authority rather than a mode of inquiry. “The real utility of science stems from the latter; the political utility from the former.” He lists several features politicized science including: 1) powerful advocacy groups claiming morality and superior wisdom; 2) simplistic depictions of the science; 3) events claimed to promote a sense of urgency; 4) scientists flattered by the public attention and 5) scientists eager to meet the public demand.
In his discussion of climate science, especially that produced by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Lindzen produces two graphs of surface temperature increases and challenges the readers to identify which period the IPCC claims is caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), and which one is largely natural. One graph covers the period 1895-1946 and the other covers the period 1957-2008. The IPCC and the climate establishment declare that the latter period is significant, but, as Lindzen shows, the difference is trivial. The data provide no basis for the IPCC claims of Catastrophic Anthropogenic (human caused) Global warming (CAGW).
In what may be a complete definition of the climate establishment, Lindzen describes how scientists, advocates, and politicians benefit from each other’s claims and cites other examples of the politicization of science, which have been used to expand governmental power. In the end, both society and science suffer from such authoritarian expansions. Please see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Model Overestimates: As posted by Judith Curry, in its Opinion & Comment section Nature Climate Change published a paper by three members of the climate establishment comparing observed surface warming with the results of 117 model runs of 37 models. The periods cover the last 20 years and the last 15 years. The authors write that for the 20 year period the models over-estimated decadal surface warming by more than 2 times and that for the 15 year period the models over-estimated decadal surface warming by more than 4 times. They state: “[S]uch an inconsistency is only expected to occur by chance once in 500 years, if 20-year periods are considered statistically independent.”
The results are not surprising for those who have questioned IPCC claims. What is surprising is that the study was reported by members of the IPCC climate establishment and that a study questioning climate modeling was published by Nature Climate Change. Would the journal publish a similar study submitted by a scientist skeptical of the IPCC and its models?
The paper states: “In conclusion, we reject the null hypothesis that the observed and model mean trends are equal at the 10% level.” Theoretical physicist Richard Feynman may have found such statements strange, at best. As shown in the videos of some of his famous lectures, Feynman considered a hypothesis to be a guess that must tested against all relevant data from experiments and observations. In this instance, the hypothesis would be there exists a close association between model results and observations. If the hypothesis fails testing, the null is accepted. There is no close association between model results and observations. The quote is another example how the IPCC climate establishment is distorting science. Please see links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.
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The Pause: Nature published a study claiming the pause in global warming is being caused by ocean cooling, namely in increase in La Niñas, during which Pacific Ocean surfaces are cooler compared with its opposite sister, El Niños, during which Pacific Ocean surfaces are warmer. These occurrences are part of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Of course, many in the climate establishment quickly picked this up as a compelling explanation for the pause.
This is doubly rich. Professor Bob Carter, a co-editor of the NIPCC reports, was a co-author of a paper on the frequency of El Niños influencing surface warming. The climate establishment ignored such suggestions. Now it finds it convenient to embrace the cooling effect, but not the warming effect.
A second richness comes from the current claims by some in the climate establishment that the warming is hiding in the deep ocean. A warming of the atmosphere, which is not occurring, passes to the deep oceans even though the surface of the vast Pacific Ocean is cooling!
On her web site, Judith Curry politely discusses some of the weaknesses in the study including that one must accept the assumption that climate models are useful for untangling natural from human causes of climate change. Further, she states that if one accepts the reasoning, one must accept the corollary that the PDO was a major and likely dominant cause of the warming in the last quarter of the 20th century. One of the authors of the study responded to such criticism by stating that the IPCC conclusion applies to centennial warming from 1880. This is a rather unusually reading of the meaning of the statements in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) with clearly refer to the last half of the 20th century. Will the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) explain climate change since 1880?
On his web site, Luboš Motl dismisses the explanations of the pause, and points out that the climate establishment has frequently claimed that small changes in global mean temperature are important and predictable, which they are not. John Brignell suggests that the pause started when independent researchers, who understand such matters, started to question the collection and processing of the data.
Please see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Problems in the Orthodoxy.
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Greenland: Using radar images gathered over decades by NASA, and others, international researchers discovered a large canyon in Greenland under the ice, which is up to 2 miles (3km) thick. Specifics are not yet clearly reported, but the canyon runs roughly from north-central Greenland to the northwest coast. According to reports, the canyon is at least 470 miles long (800km), six miles (9.6km) across at its widest, and up to 2,600 feet deep (780) – reaching its widest and deepest points near the coast. The Grand Canyon, by comparison, is 277 miles long, 18 miles wide, and 6,000 feet deep.
As some of the reports state, the weight of the ice has forced the center of Greenland to about 650 feet (200m) below sea level. Except for along the coasts, Greenland is large bowl of ice, formed by tall mountains with few openings to the sea. What occurs on the coast does not reflect what occurs in the interior, which has an average altitude of about 7000 feet (2130m). In 1888, Fridtjof Nansen led a team of four Norwegians and two mountain Lapps on a ski trip crossing southern Greenland from east to west at about 64 deg. North latitude. He exposed many myths about Greenland, including one that the center of the island is warm and free of ice. It is amazing that many articles on Greenland and its potential contributions to sea level rise ignore 120 year old knowledge about its geography. Hopefully, the new geographic mapping will help reduce such ignorance. Please see links under Changing Earth.
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False Precision: On her web site, Judith Curry discusses an interesting paper published in a journal of the American Statistical Society on the topic of overconfidence and false (over) precision. She uses examples from the IPCC to illustrate some important points and to explain the difference in the precision of weather forecasters compared with the false (over) precision of climate modelers. Please see link under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Wildfires: In the US, the Climate Establishment has changed the name of forest fires to wildfires, giving a false sense of urgency to do something. TWTW reader Clyde Spencer provided a link to the National Interagency Fire Center, which reports the number of fires and the total acres burned to date for each year since 2004. As of Aug 30, 2013 there were 34,256 fires and with 3,784,499 acres burned. This are well below the ten year average to date of 54,910 fires and 5,950,332 acres burned. Also for both categories, 2013 is below every year since 2004. One wonders if there may be an error in the tables that are updated daily. Please see link under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Number of the Week: 22. According to an article in Sail World, there are at least 22 yachts and other vessels in Arctic waters in and around the Northwest Passage. This week ice blocked the passage on both ends. How many vessels are equipped to spend the season in the ice – up to July? Before undertaking such adventures, the yachts owners should read the exploits of the Greenland skier Fridtjof Nansen and the adventures of the Fram, as relayed by Farley Mowat in The Polar Passion.
In hopes to reach the North Pole, Nansen had the Fram specially designed and built with a rounded hull to withstand the ice. When the ice closed, rather than crush it, the ice would raise the boat out of the water (and ice). In the summer of 1893 he and his crew deliberately drove the Fram into the ice. When the ocean currents failed to carry the Fram to the North Pole, Nansen left the vessel in charge of Otto Sverdrup, while he made an unsuccessful effort to reach the pole over the ice. After almost three years, the Fram was finally freed of ice. The voyage provided a great deal of scientific information about the Arctic Ocean, including its depth, which was speculated to be very shallow. Please see link under Changing Weather.
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Study Shines Light on Tremors and Fracking in South Texas’ Eagle Ford Shale
Removing Oil, Water From Ground Allows Surrounding Rock to Settle
By Tom Fowler, WSJ, Aug 27, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The tremors are from extraction of oil and water, not from hydraulic fracturing.]
2. California’s Smoke Signals
San Francisco’s power emergency is a warning about green mandates.
Editorial, WSJ, Aug 26, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323407104579034680037579034.html?mod=ITP_opinion_2
3. Giant Texas Refinery Battered by Accidents After $10 Billion Upgrade
Fires, Leaks Cripple Largest Refinery in U.S. After Owners Shell and Saudi Aramco Invested to Double Capacity
By Ben Lefebvre and Alison Sider, WSJ, Aug 23, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323980604579030961699637196.html?mod=WSJ_Energy
[SEPP Comment: No organization, private or public, is immune from mistakes. The issue is do the organizations learn from their mistakes.]
4. Fracking Debate Divides New York
By Erica Orden, WSJ, Aug 25, 2013
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy
MIT professor: global warming is a ‘religion’
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Aug 29, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://dailycaller.com/2013/08/29/mit-professor-global-warming-is-a-religion/
Link to essay: Science in the Public Square: Global Climate Alarmism and Historical Precedents
By Richard Lindzen, Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Fall 2013
http://www.jpands.org/vol18no3/lindzen.pdf
Protecting the Environment
By Vincent Gray, NZ Climate Truth Newsletter No 314, Aug 28, 2013
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/protecting-environment.html
If warmists would only tell the truth…
By Barry Brill, Quadrant, Aug 30, 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2013/08/if-warmists-would-only-tell-the-truth
Climate Deception: How The “Hottest” Temperature Game Is Played To Offset Prediction Failures
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Aug 24, 2013
The zombie theory
By John Brignell, Number Watch, Aug 26, 2013
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/2013%20August.htm#zombie
Pacific waters as an excuse for the warming hiatus
By Luboš Motl, Reference Frame, Aug 30, 2013
http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/08/pacific-waters-as-excuse-for-warming.html#more
Historical Temperature Trends in China
By Staff Writers, SPPI & CO2 Science, Aug 28, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/historical_temperature_trends_in_china.html
Link to pdf: http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/china_historical_trends.pdf
Medieval Warm Period in the Arctic
By Staff Writers, SPPI & CO2 Science, Aug 28, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/medieval_warm_period_in_the_artic.html
Defending the Orthodoxy
Can UN scientists revive drive against climate change?
By Richard Ingham, AFP, Aug 25, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
Climate leaks are ‘misleading’ says IPCC ahead of major report
By Matt McGrath, BBC, Aug 19, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23755901
Humans’ complicity in climate change can’t be ignored
Editorial, Washington Post, Aug 26, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
NEXT MONTH, the international arbiter of the scientific consensus on global warming will release its latest evaluation of the state of the research.
Climate: The sun’s role is important, but it’s just a cameo
By Freya Roberts, Carbon Brief, Aug 28, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Contrary to the author’s statements, the role of the sun is not limited to sunlight.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The New York Times’ Global Warming Hysteria Ignores 17 Years Of Flat Global Temperatures
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Aug 21, 2013
Climate Change Editorial by the Washington Post contains many mis-statements, half-truths, and omissions. Reply by a scientist is warranted
By Robert Endlich, Climate Depot, Aug 29, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Contrary to the author’s statement, the change in sea level near Pevensey Castle may be due to local factors, not a decline in global sea level.]
High School Science Discredits The New York Times’ Latest Global Warming Whopper
By Patrick Michaels, Forbes, Aug 29, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
Another Climate Embarrassment
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Aug 28, 2013
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/08/another-climate-embarrassment.php
[SEPP Comment: As the author states, the correct conclusion from the graph is Nothing.]
Global warming is ‘no longer a planetary emergency’
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Aug 28, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/28/global-warming-is-no-longer-a-planetary-emergency/
[SEPP Comment: Latest from the World Federation of Scientists.]
Another Paper Blames ENSO for the Warming Hiatus
By Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations, Aug 28, 2013
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/08/28/another-paper-blames-enso-for-the-warming-hiatus/
Betting Against Apocalyptic Thinking
The Simon-Ehrlich Wager
By Roger Pielke Jr, Breakthrough Institute, Aug 28, 2013
http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/voices/roger-pielke-jr/betting-against-apocalyptic-thinking/
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Aug 28, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/28/overestimated-global-warming-over-the-past-20-years/
Link to paper: Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years
By Fyfe, Gillett, and Zwiers, Nature Climate Change, Aug 28, 2013
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n9/full/nclimate1972.html?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201309
Pause tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Aug 28, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/28/pause-tied-to-equatorial-pacific-surface-cooling/
Link to paper: Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
By Yu Kosaka & Shang-Ping Xie, Nature, Aug 28, 2013
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature12534.html
Leading IPCC Scientist Concedes Oceans Have “Profound Effect On Average Global Surface Air Temperature”
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel has issued a press release.
By P Gosselin, Trans, No Tricks Zone, Aug 26, 2013
Spiegel: Scientists Hopelessly Stumped By Present Ocean Cooling, Still Insist They Are Certain About The Future!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 29, 2013
Pacific cooling explains break in global warming, study shows
By Alister Doyle, Reuters, Aug 28, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Pause politics
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Aug 30, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/30/pause-politics/#more-12782
Global Warming Slowdown Data Sought in UN Climate Report
By Alex Morales, Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
EU’s Oettinger warns against Germany cutting renewable subsidies
By Christoph Steitz, Reuters, Aug 26, 2013
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/26/uk-renewables-eu-idUKBRE97P0FS20130826
Seeking a Common Ground
Revisiting Wood’s 1909 Greenhouse Box Experiment, Part II: First Results
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 26, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Spencer continues with his basic test of the greenhouse effect. The test may make a good high school science fair project.]
Inadequate uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Aug 30, 2013
I know I’m right (?)
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Aug 26, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/26/i-know-im-right/#more-12660
Who is on which ‘side’ in the climate debate, anyways
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Aug 24, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/24/who-is-on-which-side-in-the-climate-debate-anyways/#more-12697
National Interagency Fire Center
By Staff Writers, NIFC, Aug 30, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm
Questioning European Green
The Dangerous Greenies Are in Brussels, Not Balcombe,
By Christopher Booker, Sunday Telegraph, Aug 25, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/christopher-booker-dangerous-greenies-brussels-balcombe/
A little fractious
Why even shale gas may not reignite a flagging green movement
Editorial, The Economist, Aug 24, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Wind turbines clutter the north German countryside
By Steve Goreham, Washington Times, Aug 28, 2013
BPI warns energy costs are deterring UK investment
By Staff Writer, Herald Scotland, Aug 28, 2013
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
People Don’t Fear Climate Change Enough
By Cass R. Sunstein, Bloomberg, Aug 27, 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-27/people-don-t-fear-climate-change-enough.html
[SEPP Comment: The Harvard Law School professor believes we must create fear in the population to achieve the political goals he desires. This is an example of Lindzen’s Iron Rice Bowl.]
Clanging of the bells on extreme weather change
By Bob Fernley-Jones, WTWT, Aug 28, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/28/clanging-of-the-bells-on-extreme-weather-change/
[SEPP Comment: Statistical tricks in Australia.]
Fabricating Climate Doom – Part 3: Extreme Weather Extinctions Enron Style
An Illusion of Extreme Climate Disruption
By Jim Steel, WUWT, Aug 25, 2013
Spy satellite data reveal vulnerability of East Antarctica Ice Sheet
By Laura Poppick, Live Science, NBC, Aug 28, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The data reveal change, not vulnerability.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Day of the ‘UnGreens’ – Dreaming up scary language to convince people global warming is really just like a scary movie
By Andrew Watts, WUWT, Aug 24, 2013
Al Gore’s Global Warming Desperation
By Tom Blumer, Front Page, Aug 29, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://frontpagemag.com/2013/tom-blumer/al-gores-global-warming-desperation/
[SEPP Comment: The article highlights Al Gore at his worst.]
Cook’s 97% climate consensus paper crumbles upon examination
By Bjørn Lomborg, WUWT, Aug 28, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/28/cooks-97-climate-consensus-paper-crumbles-upon-examination/
[SEPP Comment: This 97% is getting smaller all the time.]
New York Times environmental journalist Justin Gillis is wrong
By Bjørn Lomborg, WUWT, Aug 24, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The lack of fact checkers at the NYT.]
James Hansen’s many and varied furphies
By John Happs, Quadrant, Aug 26, 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2013/08/james-hansen-s-many-and-varied-furphies
[SEPP Comment: Furphy is Australian slang for rumor.]
Models v. Observations
The 200 months of ‘the pause’
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Aug 27, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/27/the-200-months-of-the-pause/
Driessen, Legates: Guessing at Delaware’s ‘future weather’
By David Legates and Paul Driessen, ICECAP, Aug 28, 2013
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/driessen_legates_guessing_at_delawares_future_weather/
[SEPP Comment: Some may disagree about the best time to measure enhanced greenhouse effect.]
Measurement Issues
Urban Heat Island – could it account for much of the century scale warming attributed to AGW?
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Aug 28, 2013
Changing Weather
North West Passage blocked with ice – yachts caught
By Douglas Pohl, Sail World, Aug 29, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://www.sail-world.com/USA/North-West-Passage-blocked-with-ice%E2%80%94yachts-caught/113788
Snowfall in South America
By Argiris Diamantis, WUWT, Aug 29, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/29/snowfall-in-south-america/
Minimum Temperature Heat Wave Hits the Northwest!
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 29, 2013
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/08/minimum-temperature-heat-wave-hits.html
[SEPP Comment: Natural greenhouse gas warming – water vapor.]
The Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935
By Donald Baucom, WUWT, Aug 29, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/29/the-great-labor-day-hurricane-of-1935/
[SEPP Comment: Sandy does not come close.]
Changing Climate
Aulacomnium turgidum
By Daniel Mosquim, UBC Botanical Garden, Aug 20, 2013 [H/t Cork Hayden]
http://www.botanicalgarden.ubc.ca/potd/2013/08/aulacomnium-turgidum.php
[SEPP Comment: Buried under ice 400 to 615 years ago.]
Retreating Alaskan Glacier Reveals Remains Of Medieval Forest
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 26, 2013
Climate change could make Greenland green by 2100
By John Von Radowitz, Independent, Aug 28, 2013
[SEPP Comment: For the fringes!]
Changing Seas
Ice sheet collapse,
By Rud Istvan, Climate Etc. Aug 30, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/30/ice-sheet-collapse/#more-12791
[SEPP Comment: Issues with a recent study of the historic Western Australian shoreline suggesting a collapse of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet. This report suggests it may have been a tectonic movement of the Australian plate.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Spreading out
Antarctic sea ice nears record extent once again
Total sea ice extent around Antarctica reach a record or near-record high in August 2013, part of a long-term trend.
By Staff Writers, The Antarctic Sun, Aug 22, 2013
http://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/contenthandler.cfm?id=2889
[SEPP Comment: Near record Again?]
New paper finds the majority of East Antarctic glaciers have advanced in size since 1990
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Aug 28, 2013
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.it/2013/08/new-paper-finds-majority-of-east.html
[SEPP Comment: 63 percent retreated from 1974 to 1990, 72 percent advanced from 1990 to 2000, and 58 percent advanced from 2000 to 2010. Changes are on the warmer western South Pacific coast and no significant changes on the cooler Ross Sea coast.]
Changing Earth
Greenland has its own Grand Canyon deep under ice, study says
Greenland’s ‘grand canyon’ was part of a large river system before an ice sheet covered it millions of years ago, a new study says. Now it appears to be a vital part of the island’s plumbing
By Pete Spotts, Christian Science Monitor, Aug 29, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
Huge canyon discovered under Greenland ice
By Roger Harrabin, BBC, Aug 29, 2013
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23866810
Acidic Waters
Will earth experience extra warming as oceans acidify?
By Freya Roberts, Carbon Brief, Aug 25, 2013
Link to paper: Global warming amplified by reduced sulphur fluxes as a result of ocean acidification
By Six, et al, Nature Climate Change, Aug 25, 2013
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1981.html
[SEPP Comment: Perhaps unbeknown to Roberts, waters with a pH range of 7.6 to 8.3 are alkaline, not acidic.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
The Importance of Length-of-Record in Assessing Sea Level Change
Reference: Scafetta, N. 2013. Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes. Climate Dynamics: 10.1007/s00382-013-1771-3.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/aug/27aug2013a1.html
“long-term sea level variations are driven by numerous coupled processes arising from an interaction of eustatic sea level rise and glacial isostatic subsidence, long-term tidal and solar cycles, oscillations of ocean circulation, variations in temperature and/or salinity and other factors that can be also characteristic of the specific geographical location.”
[SEPP Comment: No matter how precise satellite measurements of sea levels are, they are subject to natural variability.]
Rainfall Measurements Throughout Northeast India: AD 1871-2008
Reference: Jain, S.K., Kumar, V. and Saharia, M. 2013. Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in northeast India. International Journal of Climatology 33: 968-978.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/aug/27aug2013a4.html
[SEPP Comment: No sign of any significant trend attributable to warming.]
The Multiple Impacts of “Ocean Acidification” on a Tropical Coral
Reference: Takahashi, A. and Kurihara, H. 2013. Ocean acidification does not affect the physiology of the tropical coral Acropora digitifera during a 5-week experiment. Coral Reefs 32: 305-314.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/aug/28aug2013a1.html
Two Millennia of Climate Change on the Northern Tibetan Plateau
Reference: He, Y.-X., Liu, W.-G., Zhao, C., Wang, Z., Wang, H.-Y., Liu, Y., Qin, X.-Y., Hu, Q.-H., An, Z.-S. and Liu, Z.-H. 2013. Solar influenced late Holocene temperature changes on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Chinese Science Bulletin 58: 1053-1059.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/aug/28aug2013a3.html
Litigation Issues
Federal Court Allows Public Nuisance Lawsuits Even When Power Plants Comply with Air Permits
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Aug 28, 2013
Exclusive: UN ruling puts future of UK wind farms in jeopardy
Tribunal warns that the Government acted illegally by denying public participation
By Margareta Pagano, Independent, UK, Aug 27, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Switzerland plans radical solar subsidy cuts
By Sandra Enkhardt, PV Magazine, Aug 23, 2013
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Energy Dept. unveils new efficiency regs
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Aug 29, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/319507-energy-dept-unveils-new-efficiency-regs
[SEPP Comment: Government agencies believe they have the power and the ability to determine how consumers and businesses can best save energy.]
Energy secretary defends ‘social cost of carbon’ boost
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Aug 26, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/318777-moniz-defends-social-cost-of-carbon-boost
Feds change endangered species law rules despite GOP protest
By Julian Hattem, The Hill, Aug 26, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/pending-regs/318829-gop-protest-change-to-endangered-species-law
Feds launch ‘Bakken Blitz’ of oil-by-rail inspections
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Aug 29, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/319459-feds-launch-bakken-blitz-of-oil-by-rail-inspections
Energy Issues – Non-US
Energy Department: World oil use hit new high in 2012
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Aug 26, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/318749-energy-dept-world-oil-use-hit-new-high-in-2012
Link to Report: World petroleum use sets record high in 2012 despite declines in North America and Europe
By Staff Writers, EIA, Aug 26, 2013
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=12691
Making Energy Access Meaningful
By Roger Pielke Jr. His Blog, Aug 28, 2013
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/08/making-energy-access-meaningful.html
Link to paper by same name
By Morgan Bazilian and Roger Pielke, Jr. Issues in Science and Technology, Summer 2013
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2013.22.pdf
It’s a ‘fracking’ good opportunity
By G. Parthasarathy, The Hindu, Aug 29, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: A perspective on the changing geopolitical considerations with the US development of oil and natural gas from shale.]
U.S. fracking is transforming the geopolitical landscape
By Rob Cox and Christopher Swann, Reuters, Aug 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Why Is Vladimir Putin Acting So Crazy?
By Brian Bremner, Bloomberg Businessweek, Aug 29, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-08-29/can-vladimir-putin-survive-americas-energy-boom
Reports: Future Coal and Nuclear Prone to Market Forces, Gas Expansion
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Aug 27, 2013
Estonia Becomes Self-Sufficient on Shale Gas Boom
By Ambrose Evans-Prichard, Daily Telegraph, via GWPF, Aug 26, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/estonia-self-sufficient-shale-gas-boom/
[SEPP Comment: The headline is misleading. The shale must be heated to produce kerogen. This is not the same as oil from shale.]
Energy Issues — US
Obama administration announces plan to boost NJ Transit energy grid
By Keith Laing, The Hill, Aug 24, 2013
[SEPP Comment: What is the source of highly reliable electric power during storms – wind power?]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Decision on Keystone pipeline likely delayed until 2014
By Sean Lengell, Washington Examiner, Aug 26, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Washington has plenty of jobs. Except for oil rich North Dakota and Texas, it is the rest of the country that is hurting.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
North America: An Oil and Gas Powerhouse
By Marita Noon, Energy Tribune, Aug 28, 2013
http://www.energytribune.com/78963/north-america-an-oil-and-gas-powerhouse#sthash.JulQMe4O.dpbs
America’s shale revolution is providing significant economic and environmental benefits; CO2 per capita lowest since 1964
By Mark Perry, AEIdeas, Aug 26, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
EOG Resources’ Shale Oil Secrets: Rail Lines And Sand Mines
By Christopher Helman, Forbes Staff, Jul 24, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The interesting statistics include $7.5 million per well and estimated 8% recovery rate for oil from shale.]
Here Are the Facts about Fracking
By Robert Mair, Daily Telegraph, via GWPF, Aug 27, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/prof-robert-mair-facts-fracking/
Large methane hydrate deposits likely in Sea of Japan
By Staff Writers, Asahi Shibun, Aug 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/economy/business/AJ201308280046
Why Sand Is The Latest Front In The War On Fracking (Yes, Sand)
By Christopher Helman, Forbes Staff, Aug 22, 2013 [H/t Bishop Hill]
The Resurgence of American Exports: Manufacturing and Natural Gas
By William O’Keefe, Fuel Fix, Aug 23, 2013
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/08/23/the-resurgence-of-american-exports-manufacturing-and-natural-gas/
Return of King Coal?
Sorry Apple, There’s Still Coal In The Green iPhone
By Mark Mills, Energy Facts Weekly, Aug 28, 2013
http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=29bc7d5d85828d574f86c157a&id=8a1c319197&e=
King Coal Gets Fatter, While The US Goes on a Diet
By Robert Rapier, Energy Tribune, Aug 26, 2013
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Entergy to Shutter its Vermont Nuclear Plant
Competition from Natural Gas is a Key Factor
By Ken Silverstein, Energy Biz, Aug 27, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.energybiz.com/article/13/08/entergy-shutter-its-vermont-nuclear-plant
Japan notifies IAEA of Fukushima Daiichi level 3 INES rating
By Staff Writers, IAEA, Aug 28, 2013
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/2013/ines3.html
[SEPP Comment: The rating denotes a ‘serious incident.’]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
The Wind Farms That Generate Enough Power to make a Few Cups of Tea
By Robert Mendick, Sunday Telegraph, via GWPF, Aug 25, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/wind-farms-generate-power-cups-tea/
Harbor windmills are no bargain for Massachusetts residents
By Diana Furchtgott Roth, Washington Examiner, Aug 27, 2013
Green Energy Needs to be Cheaper
So let’s invest in R&D instead of subsidies.
By Bjørn Lomborg, Slate, Aug 25, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Subsidizing inferior electrical generation is not investing.]
California Dreaming
Renewables Scam
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Aug 30, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/08/30/renewables-scam/
Court to hear challenges to cap-and-trade auction
By Christopher Arns, Sacramento Business Journal, Aug 27, 2013 [H/t Junk Science]
http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2013/08/27/cap-and-trade-emissions-challenges.html
[SEPP Comment: Obligatory propaganda photo for an article on invisible CO2 – a chimney billowing dark smoke – probably steam taken under special lighting or taken with special lenses.]
Oh Mann!
Mann: Reality and threats of climate change are clear
By Michael Mann, Richmond Times-Dispatch, Aug 24, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Environmental Industry
Fossil Fuel Self-Defense
By Alex Epstein, Master Resource, Aug 30, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/08/fossil-fuel-self-defense/#more-27366
[SEPP Comment: A series of columns suggesting ideas on how to address environmental zealots such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. who claims Coal is a Crime and a poison. Kennedy promoted the discredited idea that childhood vaccinations cause autism, based on a single study subsequently withdrawn. Now, he is New York Governor Cuomo’s go to man on the science of hydraulic fracturing of shale! Please see Article # 4.]
Today’s Scores From The Arctic – Russian Coastguard 1 Greenpeace 0
By Tory Aardvark, His Blog, Aug 27, 2013
http://toryaardvark.com/2013/08/27/todays-scores-from-the-arctic-russian-coastguard-1-greenpeace-0/
Other Scientific News
Odds Are, It’s Wrong
Science fails to face the shortcomings of statistics
By Tom Siegfried, Science News [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/57091/description/Odds_Are_Its_Wrong
UA Astronomers Take Sharpest Photos Ever of the Night Sky
By Daniel Stolte, AU, University Communications, Aug 20, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://uanews.org/story/ua-astronomers-take-sharpest-photos-ever-of-the-night-sky
Other News that May Be of Interest
Yosemite Smoke Affects the Northwest and the Rest of the U.S.
Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 26, 2013
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/08/yosemite-smoke-affects-northwest-and.html
When life gives you fracked water, make methane hydrate
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 28, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/28/when-life-gives-you-fracked-water-make-methane-hydrate/
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Vanishing ocean smell could also mean fewer clouds
By John Upton, Grist, Aug 27, 2013
http://grist.org/news/vanishing-ocean-smell-could-also-mean-fewer-clouds/
World-first pilot plant to turn carbon dioxide into rock
By Dan Cox, ABC, AU, Aug 23, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
With An ‘All-Out’ Federal Renewable Energy Strategy, How Long Before We Could Be 100% Renewably Powered?
Probably 20-30 years to get to 70-80%, but 80 years to get the last 20-30%.
By Mark Rogowsky, Forbes, Aug 22, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: What planet is he on?]
Why the U.S. Power Grid’s Days Are Numbered
By Chris Martin, Mark Chediak, and Ken Wells, By Bloomberg Businessweek, Aug 22, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
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Off topic
but I just watched the 50 to 1 video excellent
http://www.50to1.net/
Unfortunately, in the Quadrant article by Barry Brill he makes an elementary arithmetic error early on (which does not per se invalidate the rest, however).
3°C Sensitivity is, of course, per doubling. So 1 ppm increase does not imply “about 1°C (at current saturation levels).”, but rather about 3/400 ° per ppm.
“Except for along the coasts, Greenland is large bowl of ice, formed by tall mountains with few openings to the sea”
So is the inference that the contribution to sea level rise is really the rate at which the melt can escape the rim of the natural bowl? I wonder what percent of the total ice volume is within this geologic bowl and how many centuries it would take to run off.
=======================================================================
A hypothetical question. Since a given volume of ice when melted would result in a smaller volume of water, if all of Greenland’s ice melted how much would actually run into the sea and how much would stay behind to form “Lake More Superior”?
OT — I was just watching The Weather Channel this evening, and they had a segment on extreme weather events this year. They started out by saying that the 2013 hurricane season started right on schedule with Tropical Storm (didn’t get the name) making U.S. landfall (in FL) in early July. They also said that so far, no hurricanes have made landfall. However, they didn’t mention that there were NO hurricanes available to make landfall.
Day of the ‘UnGreens’ – Dreaming up scary language to convince people global warming is really just like a scary movie
By Andrew Watts, WUWT, Aug 24, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/24/day-of-the-ungreens-dreaming-up-scary-language-to-convince-people-global-warming-is-really-just-like-a-scary-movie/
Is there a new member of the Watts family on the pay-roll now?
Years ago in Australia we had bushfires. Now we have wildfires! Same thing name change to follow the USA experts!
Lindzen has been paid directly by Exxon Mobil, and is associated with the Heartland Institute and Marshall Institute. Just sayin’.
REPLY: Josh Caley from Connecticut (who has posted here on WUWT as Caley, JC, and Jcales, usually with the same sort of hateful rhetoric) seems too timid to come right out and say “Watts is a moron” by putting his name to it. There fixed that for you sir. Feel free to be as upset as you wish. – Anthony
Watts is a moron says:
September 2, 2013 at 2:12 pm
++++++++++++
I just happened by Anthony’s “recent comments” sidebar and saw your handle.
I figured clicking on your comment might be worth the price of admission.
I was wrong.
Just sayin’.
Watts is a moron says: September 2, 2013 at 2:12 pm
Lindzen has been paid directly by Exxon Mobil, and is associated with the Heartland Institute and Marshall Institute. Just sayin’
———————————————————————
I have never understood how “You are in the pay of Big Oil” is an epithet while being in the pay of Big Government is not viewed critically. I am an engineer and have directly worked for Shell and Exxon, as well as several federal government entities. In my experience, the oil companies are just trying to do their job, which is to create wealth by getting oil and gas out of the ground and turning it into desirable products. That job requires facts and hard work, and pays taxes. It also requires wading through an ever-changing sea of government regulations, and if those are not met, there are civil and criminal penalties for company employees.
Government agencies, on the other hand, are in the business of spending money, and in my experience, neither truth nor efficiency get much respect. Furthermore, if government bureaucrats make big mistakes, there are rarely any penalties. Why are climate scientists, who are mostly in the pay of Big Government, not questioned about their motives?
Comment from an earlier thread on WUWT:
Merovign says:
August 31, 2013 at 12:36 am
Model-based evidence? Is that like speculation-based fact?
====================
My vote for “Quote of the week”
“Antarctic sea ice nears record extent once again
Total sea ice extent around Antarctica reach a record or near-record high in August 2013, part of a long-term trend.”
An official from KNMI stopped by Judy Curry’s a few days ago (Pause Politics thread) to explain that increasing antarctic sea ice is due to AGW. There’s an explanation for everything (and it never comes before the events happen).
“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.—Voltaire”
Was he certain of that?
“Merovign says:
August 31, 2013 at 12:36 am
Model-based evidence? Is that like speculation-based fact?
====================
My vote for “Quote of the week””
That is awfully good.
Just wondering. Is someone or some group planning on doing a review of the new IPCC report when it comes out? Singer’s group? Others?
It seems like a chapter by chapter review of the IPCC report including the summary would be for the good of the order. In addition, my suspicion is that there will be “missing chapters” on topics that the IPCC does not want to touch.
Vladimir Putin is still kinda living in the old USSR.
But look on the bright side, John McCain was beating the war drums at Russia over Georgia. (Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq) Had he won in 2008 we may have all been dead by now from nukes or AT LEAST twice as in debt. Whew…