There’s a surging current of alarm that we’re headed for a food doomsday by 2050—that the world’s food-producing capacity will crash before population peaks at 10 billion. Don’t you believe it! Smart technology and better management policies will let us feed the hungry hordes to midcentury and beyond. —IEEE Spectrum, Summer 2013
World total cereal production is forecast to increase by about 7 percent in 2013 compared to last year, helping to replenish global inventories and raise expectations for more stable markets in 2013/14, according to the latest issue of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report. —Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 11 July 2013
Africa’s economy is growing faster than any other continent, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB). A new report from the AfDB said one-third of Africa’s countries have GDP growth rates of more than 6%. The continent’s middle class is growing rapidly – around 350 million Africans now earn between $2 and $20 a day. The AfDB’s Annual Development Effectiveness Report said the growth was largely driven by the private sector, thanks to improved economic governance and a better business climate on the continent. —BBC News, 11 July 2013
After nearly a decade of drought, Israel has decided to make its freshwater rather than wait in vain for enough of it to fall from the sky. The Sorek desalination plant opening next month will be the largest facility of its kind in the world. Once it’s operational, Israel’s four desalination plants will be capable of producing 60 percent of the country’s freshwater. There’s speculation that the country will soon see a water surplus, something that was almost unthinkable during the arid 2000s. –Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, 30 May 2013
Humans may never have to worry about the supply of fresh water again. The University of Texas at Austin reports that some of the university’s scientists have found a new way to desalinate sea water, potentially easing concerns over one of the crises facing human civilization we’ve been told is just around the bend. –Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, 13 July 2013
Thanks to The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser for that roundup.
Compare that news to the gloom and doom of Paul Ehrlich from juts a few months ago:
=============================================================
Contemplating Collapse
by Paul Ehrlich
It’s been three months since Anne and I summarized our views on this topic for the Royal Society, and we’ve been pleased that it has generated a fair amount of discussion and particularly, invitations to share our take on the future in various forum in the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand. So far the paper has not elicited any significant attacks, save one “rebuttal” based on climate denial that was rejected by a journal. But it has also not yet generated some of the discussion we might have hoped for, especially on key issues such as how to buffer the global agricultural system against global change so as to retain a real possibility of at least maintaining today’s nutritional situation and steps that need to be taken to increase human security against vast epidemics (such as that which now may be threatened by the H7N9 “bird flu” virus).
============================================================
Source: http://us4.campaign-archive2.com/?u=88e1f9157b8a1070712b4dd12&id=22001abf1d&e=f8b6a6b78b
I’d love to see him explain how the world agricultural system will collapse in the face of gains like this, it should be entertaining.
Increasing CO2 helps.
(Ahem.) Of course, the relevant metric is production PER CAPITA, and it has been dropping for many years now:
http://www.springerimages.com/Images/LifeSciences/1-10.1007_s12571-009-0026-y-4
When has Paul Ehrlich EVER been right?
How does this serial failure maintain any credibility?
I wonder about this considering the damage to China’s wheat crop (up to 16% so far being declared unfit for human use due to cold, wet conditions), the loss of a good portion of the US winter wheat crop due to severe cold, loss of crops in Europe due to cold/wet conditions, and the current loss of some crops, particularly in the mid-Atlantic region, due to continued wet conditions. A friend of mine in a mid-Atlantic state told me that most of the summer grain crop is down due to wet/windy conditions. The heads of the grain got large due to a lot of rain and wind has blown it onto the ground. We are looking at another 7 to 9 days out of the next 10 with rain in the Eastern US.
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.”
― George Bernard Shaw
I believe the quote is relevant to conversations, arguments, discussions or attempts to reason with progressives.
“The fact that world population growth has been outpacing cereal production since 1984 readily attracts attention, but interpreted without any qualification, it is seriously misleading for two reasons. First, it hides the fact that much of the recent decline in world cereal production has occurred in relatively well-fed regions. Second, it does not account for the fact that the regional composition of humanity is changing. In particular, most demographic growth is happening in parts of the world with low levels of per-capita cereal consumption and, other things being equal, this fact tends to weight downward the average level of world per-capita cereal consumption (and hence production). ” — http://www.pnas.org/content/96/11/5929.full
Kon Dealer says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:13 am
When has Paul Ehrlich EVER been right?
Well, umm, err… he’s still alive, so I assume he’s capable of correctly determining when traffic’s stopped so he can cross the street. Aside from that, I don’t know of any other instances…
@Sedron L
Total food production per capita has outpaced population growth.
http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/events/archive/2011/paa/david_lam.html
Now, if we can only stop the diversion of cereal crops to ethanol production – that’s where the REAL deficit in them is.
“…cereals account for approximately two-thirds of all human calorie intake.”
This paper breaks cereal production down into seven regions, and finds it is decreasing per capita in five of them: North America/Oceania, Europe/FSU, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.
Money quote:
“Finally…we now may be entering an era of rather greater international cereal price volatility than has prevailed for some time…. However, just a glance at Fig. 2 reveals the major rise in North America’s harvest volatility. This rise is important because the region is still the main supplier of cereals to world markets. This increased volatility in North America is largely weather-induced (witness the output declines of 1983, 1988, 1993, and 1995), and it is possibly a negative result of climate change.”
http://www.pnas.org/content/96/11/5929.full
Ehrlich is like a living study in human stupidity, in that the guy has predicted disasters decade after decade that have never come to pass, and yet some people still pay attention to what he’s got to say.
There’s a sucker born every minute, I guess.
Based on current demographic trends, by 2050 Europe’s population will have fallen 25%; the US population will go below 300 million; China’s median age will be about 50 as its population begin to plunge downward; Japan’s population will have dropped 35%, and most of Asia and North Africa will begin losing people.
This demand demand for food will decrease, as will the number of acres farmed. Demand for energy will drop rapidly, commodity prices will plunge, as strong deflationary pressures mount on a global scale. As the number of consumers and producers fall, so will the demand for food, energy, and consumer goods. It is high time the UN wake-up to this demographic nightmare. The AGW fetish has run its course.
It speaks very poorly of The Royal Society that there weren’t wholesale resignations when that once-august institution decided to confer Fellowship on Paul Erlich.
Kon Dealer says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:13 am
Kon, you took the words right out of my keyboard.
Plants produce 67 pounds of sugar for every 100 pounds of CO2 they extract from the air, by weight.
Kon Dealer says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:13 am
When has Paul Ehrlich EVER been right?
How does this serial failure maintain any credibility?
—-
He says what the glitterati want to hear.
Let’s see, John West goes with a university study. Sedron goes with propaganda sites full of maybe, mights, and what ifs. Who to believe?
I’ll stick with the science.
Ehrlich would still give the wrong answer if he stood in front of a clock and you asked him for the time of day. Only in leftie academics could he rise above an assistant janitorial position.
Kon Dealer says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:13 am
When has Paul Ehrlich EVER been right?
If the current predictions from Russia of a Maunder minimum are borne out, then I expect he will be ‘right’ if only for the wrong reasons. If the ‘grow line’ for crops moves 500 miles equatorward then the world is in a LOT of trouble. This could happen quite rapidly.
The 50% increase in US corn productivity since ~2000 has been burnt via forced ethanol production. leaving no increase in exports to feed the growing world population.
Wallington et al. Corn Ethanol Production, Food Exports, and Indirect Land Use Change, Environmental Science & Technology 2012, 46, 6379−6384 dx.doi.org/10.1021/es300233m
there just might be a problem coming up…
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
Sedron L says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:12 am
(Ahem.) Of course, the relevant metric is production PER CAPITA, and it has been dropping for many years now:
http://www.springerimages.com/Images/LifeSciences/1-10.1007_s12571-009-0026-y-4
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Lies by omission. That chart leaves out the USA, Canada, EU and Australia. Four big cereal producers.
From the EPA (Try not to gag)
Australia: http://www.nff.org.au/commodities-grains.html
China is the larges producer of wheat and India is second largest. The United States is the third largest producer of wheat in the world. France is the fourth largest producer of wheat, Russia is the fifth largest producer of wheat in the world, and Canada is the sixth largest producer.
Australia is the seventh largest wheat producer in the world, and exports average 14,936 TMT, which is over 75% of their total production, and makes Australia one of the largest exporters of wheat in the world. Germany is the eighth largest producer of wheat and the sixth largest wheat exporter in the world.
Above data stolen from: http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/statistics/wheat.html
Sedron L says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:46 am
“However, just a glance at Fig. 2 reveals the major rise in North America’s harvest volatility. This rise is important because the region is still the main supplier of cereals to world markets..”
So, a 3% area of the world is the main supplier. What does that tell a sensible, unfettered mind? The US does this and also can stupidly produce most of the world’s ethanol fuel from corn to keep Luddites happy, too (maybe expanding your thesis intelligently you could discover why the volatility – hint it’s in the front of this sentence). Yeah, perhaps you can convince yourself of terrible things about capitalism if you want to believe them, but from what you say, the alternative is massive death from starvation in apparently 97% of the rest of the world’s area if the destroyers succeed in crippling the US 3%. Instead of being a useful fool of the economy-destruction sector, you would be a Nobel Prize winner if you could get just another 3% to follow US agriculture methodology. Oh, and one way to tell an agenda-brain-washed individual is his continuing applause for a guy who has never been right. There is nothing to criticize Paul Disaster Ehrlich for? I knew a cranky guy like this who really was trying to get even with his father.
Sedron L says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:46 am
….However, just a glance at Fig. 2 reveals the major rise in North America’s harvest volatility. This rise is important because the region is still the main supplier of cereals to world markets. This increased volatility in North America is largely weather-induced (witness the output declines of 1983, 1988, 1993, and 1995), and it is possibly a negative result of climate change.”…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>…
Absolute bopkes!
In 1995 Bill Clinton ratified the World Trade Organization treaty (and shipped US jobs overseas)
Amstutz was VP of Cargill. He wrote the WTO Agreement on Ag in 1995. (Even Clinton admitted that agreement lead to starvation and riots of 2008) Amstutz then wrote the Freedom to Farm act in 1996. This law was later called the Freedom to Fail act as US farmers over produced and grain prices dropped like a rock. Grain traders used the surplus of very cheap grain to bankrupt farmers around the world. This was actually a KNOWN US policy as Clinton has just admitted.
Amstutz was also responsible for wiping out the US grain reserve system. How to fight a food crisis: To blunt the ravages of drought and market greed, we need a national grain reserve… the 1996 Freedom to Farm Act abolished our national system of holding grain in reserve.
Amstutz then went to work for Goldman Sachs. This has always puzzled me until I finally ran across the last piece of the puzzle.
That is where things get really interesting. This is stolen from WANTtoKNOW. Info: Excerpts of Key Financial News Articles in Major Media
The first articles states:
NOW we know WHY Goldman Sachs hired Dan Amstutz!
The second Article states:
Here is the real attitude of these sons of syphilitic jackals:
Dan Amstutz was president of the North American Export Grain Association.
They even named an award after the B@$t@rd!
More on Biofuel, starvation and profit:
The possible consequences were clearly communicated in a Senate briefing a week before initial passage of the Senate bill and 6 months before final approval of the final House-Senate bill.
Here’s a bit from a June 13, 2007 Senate briefing given by Lester Brown from the Earth Policy Institute:
To add insult to injury Congress did not even see if biofuel actually saves on the use of oil. It does not! David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell found it takes more fossil fuel to produce biofuel than is recovered:
* corn requires 29 percent more fossil energy than the fuel produced;
* switch grass requires 45 percent more fossil energy than the fuel produced; and
* wood biomass requires 57 percent more fossil energy than the fuel produced.
* soybean plants requires 27 percent more fossil energy than the fuel produced, and
* sunflower plants requires 118 percent more fossil energy than the fuel produced.
WHO PROFITS? That should alway be the question you ask about any seemingly idiotic moves by politicians.
I often wonder why more people have heard of Paul Ehrlich than have heard of Norman Borlaug.
Ehrlich continues to be wrong with his doomsday predictions; Borlaug introduced high-yielding varieties of whet combined with modern agricultural production techniques around the world and has been credited with saving over a billion people from starvation.
The world per capita demand for cereals is actually stagnant since the 1970s. This overall stagnation results from diminishing per capita demand in developed countries and still rising per capita demand in developing countries. Another process underlying the stagnant per capita demand for cereals is a slightly decreasing per capita demand for cereals as human food, and increasing per capita demand for cereals for other purposes (mainly for animal feed, and secondarily for biofuels). In the meanwhile, per capita demand for non-cereal foods is increasing, especially vegetable oil, meat of various kinds, fruit, vegetables and more. The adequate metric for total food production (or total agricultural production including non-food products such as hides, tobacco or wool) is total value of production at world average producer prices, converted into a common currency at Purchasing Power Parity conversion rates. FAO provides this metric in FAOSTAT (production – value of production). It has been increasing in per capita terms since the beginning of the series in 1961.
Sedron is a paid drone, a Progressive apparatchik whose world view is centered on belief rather than reason.
Mark Bofill says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:46 am
Ehrlich is like a living study in human stupidity, in that the guy has predicted disasters decade after decade that have never come to pass, and yet some people still pay attention to what he’s got to say…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Worse his co-author, John Holdern became Obama’s Science Czar.
I forgot to include the link http://zombietime.com/john_holdren/ (Sorry the power just went out again)
Wyguy says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:27 am
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.”
― George Bernard Shaw
I believe the quote is relevant to conversations, arguments, discussions or attempts to reason with progressives.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Shaw should know since he was co-founder of the Fabian society the well from which the progressives sprung.
Gail Combs says:
July 22, 2013 at 11:56 am (Edit)
——————————————–
Gail, you like so many people, believe that countries like Haiti are unable to counter the actions of America in her trade dealings. What you are basically saying is that places like Haiti are governed badly as though that is America’s fault. Why are you so keen to excuse bad governance in third world countries as if it is the fault of others?
Haiti has been independent of France for over 200 years. It is an economic and social catastrophe through the fault of its political leadership. America , like other advanced societies , will take advantage of this situation and why shouldn’t it. Until Haiti, and others , learn that being useless has big consequences they will never get their act together. That is nobody’s fault but their own.
Instead what we find are societies that claim equality and the right to pursue their own philosophies without interference yet claim exploitation when they fail. Good governance is the solution and if they are not up to the task so be it. That is the way the world works.
Steven Hales and Sedron L
The paper you are quoting is from 1999 – there have been significant changes to most indicators since this time and a much more optimistic outlook now pertains to a number of the factors in this paper. Primarily, productivity gains in the major cereals are on the rise and the FAO review quoted in the article points out that the increase in production has outpaced increases in population. Furthermore, estimates of population increase have declined over the past 15 years, with more recognition that reduced poverty and increased child mortality leads to reduced birth rates in developing countries.
There is a long way to go, but progress is being made, especially in Africa which missed out significantly on the agricultural productivity gains in the 70’s and 80’s. The IEEE article (also listed above) focussed on Africa in particular and noted that much of the improvement is based on adoption of ideas and technologies which are hardly new, but which had not been seen in Africa. Yes, we all trumpet cutting edge breakthroughs, but there is a long way between the highest and lowest yields even in a continent where productivity has been comparatively low. Raising the lowest to even a median level represents a productivity increase far in excess of that required just to cope with population growth.
Jeff York says:
July 22, 2013 at 10:00 am
It speaks very poorly of The Royal Society that there weren’t wholesale resignations when that once-august institution decided to confer Fellowship on Paul Erlich.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
What did you expect when The Royal Society hosted a pro-eugenics conference in 2004 link
Ian W says:
July 22, 2013 at 10:58 am
…..If the ‘grow line’ for crops moves 500 miles equatorward then the world is in a LOT of trouble. This could happen quite rapidly.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Especially since the USA got rid of her grain reserves and the Food Safety Modernization Act is designed to drive family farms out of business via massive red tape. see: http://www.fda.gov/Food/GuidanceRegulation/FSMA/ucm257978.htm
Sedron L says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:12 am
(Ahem.) Of course, the relevant metric is production PER CAPITA, and it has been dropping for many years now:
__________________________________________________________________________________
(Ahem) Of course, climate change is expected to directly affect TOTAL production, leading to lower per capita as a result. Any reduction in per capita production, as total production increases, must (kinda by definition) be because of increasing population.
To date at least, by far the biggest effect of climate change on available food has been the diversion of crops from food to fuel.
Paul still can’t get over the fact that we are not all going to starve to death in the next decade, or the next, or the next or next …
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Director of CIGI, last year was playing the same card with wheat and drought… Debunked again… I better understand why he sticks to anti pipeline politics these days!
JP says (July 22, 2013 at 9:47 am): “This demand demand for food will decrease, as will the number of acres farmed. Demand for energy will drop rapidly, commodity prices will plunge, as strong deflationary pressures mount on a global scale. As the number of consumers and producers fall, so will the demand for food, energy, and consumer goods.”
The decline in demand will be offset, partly or entirely, by the rising standard of living of the poorest Earthicans. Think of a world population with, on average, the living standards (and per capita demands) of the US today (the future US will be even richer, if our electorate stops mucking things up).
The good news is that more efficient production and higher yields may allow some reduction in the total amount of farmland needed with a hoped for reduction in habitat destruction.
Gail,
Thanks, I was unaware of that about Holdren.
Creepy…
Keitho says: @ July 22, 2013 at 12:21 pm
….Gail, you like so many people, believe that countries like Haiti are unable to counter the actions of America in her trade dealings. What you are basically saying is that places like Haiti are governed badly as though that is America’s fault….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Haiti’s a victim of an intentional policy of ‘Interdependence’ (I will cover that later)
No I do not consider it the fault of US citizens however I do consider it the fault of America’s Ruling Class. or the Regulating Class or what ever you want to call them
Until people figure out the ‘Us’ vs “Them” is not about progressives vs capitalists or blacks vs whites but about those who would rule us through lies and stealth vs the people who pay through taxes and in some cases lives this world will never be a better place.
IMHO our politicians are very rapidly hauling us toward a worldwide totalitarian state. Sound like a lunatics Conspiracy until you read the direct quotes from people like Pascal Lamy, Director General of the WTO.
Note the word interdependence. This is THE big clue. Al Gore and other liberals/Fabians/ progressives/socialists have been pushing that concept for years. SEE The Interdependence Movement
You can also look at the IMF.
There is a reason why interdependence vs self-sufficiency is being fostered by the world’s elite (aside from raking in mega bucks) Haiti was just a casualty of that movement and it is an intentional movement.
I suggest you also read DEATH BY GOVERNMENT By R.J. Rummel
My goal is to fight the accumulation of power by the unelected by shining a spot light on their activities.
Mark Bofill says:
July 22, 2013 at 1:29 pm
Gail,
Thanks, I was unaware of that about Holdren.
Creepy…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes, Trying reading up on what the Fabian founders wanted if you really want nightmares!
The Real George Bernard Shaw
The eugenics movement Britain wants to forget
And the USA was no better.
Margaret Sanger, Founder of Planned Parenthood: In Her Own Words
This about my home state North Carolina:
If you think this is “Old News” you are wrong.
Gail Combs
Thanks, I’m not paranoid after all, they are out to get me.
Sedron, you assert that grain production has become more volatile. Droughts and floods have affected grain production throughout all history (earliest recorded that I am aware of is Egypt in the time of Joseph). That is the entire reason of building reserves.
Second, per capita grain production should be expected to level off at some point. Once I have the ability to consume 2,000 calories per day more wealth will not increase my consumption.
Let’s consider a world in which much less third world agricultural production goes to rot (almost twice the amount in the US). Even without any improvements in yield there could be a drastic drop in production to give the same amount of edible calories. Now lets add to that world an abolition of favorable treatment of ethanol. Grain production per capita would again be expected to drop. So, remove distortive subsidies and improve third world delivery efficiencies and production should be expected to plummet even as more people are well fed.
Even if Ehrlich were right about production he would still be wrong about hunger.
Note – primary rot in third world countries is primarily before delivery to final consumers while in the first world it is after. We can afford to throw away food when it goes bead in our refrigerator, third world countries have to throw it away because it goes bad in a warehouse somewhere. Thus even though we are often referred to as “wasteful” when it comes to food, we waste less than poorer countries. Somebody please build more electricity generation capacity in Africa and India so they can use refrigerators to improve the food storage situation.
SandyInLimousin says:
July 22, 2013 at 2:17 pm
Gail Combs
Thanks, I’m not paranoid after all, they are out to get me.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Nah, All they are after is all your wealth. You don’t kill off the golden goose…. Well not unless you are Stalin (Only fitting that the article is from Stanford University)
It’s funny that they still talk about food shortages, when obesity is such a growing (no pun intended) problem. There’s way too much food, not a dearth of it.
Reblogged this on Anthropogenic Global Alarmism and commented:
“Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun.” – Malthusian, eco-alarmist Paul R. Ehrlich in The American Spectator, September 6, 1992
“In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” – Paul R. Ehrlich, Earth Day 1970
Ian W
You are correct if we do get a a Dalton minimum or Maunder Minimum the planet will have less water which means more difficult to feed our people. Gail Combs seems to have some reasons why a country would eliminate one of the primary functions of what government has done for thousands of years. Store food for bad times.
The US government at this point is not working for it’s people.
Sedron L @ July 22, 2013 at 9:12 am talks about per capita.
There must be something amiss with your chart because it does not square with reality. Worldwide, starvation is on the decrease. Per capita caloric intake is on the increase. And India — which for decades was synonymous with starvation – is now exporting food.
It could be that the data sources for the chart are faulty, but there are a few peculiarities of the chart: First, it leaves off key food-production areas of the world. Second, the forward projections of decrease are not consistent with the historic record – even with the historic record presented in the chart. Third, the area of primary concern – with historic downward trends — would be Eastern Africa, and there are lots of reasons why this data may not be reliable for a projection: the area has low production so that any disruption either in production or reporting could be responsible for the trend. Potential disruption could be (a) wars in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eretria, Somalia, etc. – where not only production could be disruption but also data collection could be most dangerous; (b) Kenyan efforts to preserve wildlife parks at the expense of agriculture; (c) the destruction of productive farms in the transition from Rhodesia to Zimbabwe – an ongoing catastrophe; and (d) the socialist disaster of Mozambique.
And earlier this month
Arid areas of the Earth are greening. The Sahel and the biosphere in general. According to Ehrlich India was supposed to be the land of skelator, yet last year it was the world’s top exporter of rice. We are doomed……………again!
What I don’t understand is why, with so many spectacular failed predictions, does Paul ‘Nostradamus’ Ehrlich continue? How will history remember him? Not for being right that’s for sure.
Ehrlich’s views have been proven wrong. Updating does not change that fact. But the IEEE (international electrical and electronic engineering) is hardly an authority either on future food security. Their article, which I studied carefully, is nothing more than a pastiche of current anecdotes that does not even begin to deal with the longer term food issues. Worse than most CAGW nonsense. This article obviously could not get published in journals traditionally dealing with agricultural topics.
Just because it’s conclusions might accord with the worldviews of many AGW sceptics does not make it right. It is actually very wrong. Detailed specifics can be found in the food, water, (and climate impacts on both) chapters of Gaia’s Limits.
Bottom line, irrigation has reached limits, best practice limits (feetilizer, planting types and practices) are being reached for some (not yet all, e.g. Rice) crops, intensification limits have been reached for most important crops (wheat, rice, alfalfa, potatoes, sorghum, taro…). Corn, soybeans, and vegetables are the notable intensification exceptions to date. And, some recent crop intensification practices are threatened by reversals from Darwinian pest evolution (best and most worrisome example being Ug99 wheat rust).
Even the optimistic FAO explicitly does not see any present way forward to feed its projected 2050 population, save some hoped for not yet in evidence miracle. A more detailed analysis shows feeding projected 2050 popularion is just possible under a specific set of limiting assumtions (lower average daily calories than at present, no growth in certain meat proportions, unlimited ‘virtual water’) but represents a fairly certain ‘soft’ limit on global population at boutmthatntime and population.
IMO Best this site stick to its expertise, climate, rather than air ill informed biases on fundamentally different topics.
Has anyone ever met a happy activist environmentalist? How about an optimistic one? You see their entire worldview is that we are ‘cereally’ doomed (pun intended) and it’s all our fault. They are the most miserable bunch of sods you could ever hope to meet. Really sad.
Keitho says:
July 22, 2013 at 12:21 pm
America , like other advanced societies , will take advantage of this situation and why shouldn’t it. Until Haiti, and others , learn that being useless has big consequences they will never get their act together. That is nobody’s fault but their own.
=========
A large wealthy country can afford to flood a small poor country will cut rate goods, driving local producers out of business. At which point the large country can increase prices and take advantage of its manufactured monopoly to reap enormous profits.
Such a situation is not free trade, it is market manipulation, and it kills people. Either through poverty or through force of arms to try and resist. A rich country does not need to profit in this fashion. As you sow, so shall yea reap.
Jimbo says: @ July 22, 2013 at 6:26 pm
….What I don’t understand is why, with so many spectacular failed predictions, does Paul ‘Nostradamus’ Ehrlich continue? How will history remember him? Not for being right that’s for sure.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” ~ H. L. Mencken
How history will remember Ehrlich depends entirely on who wins the current undeclared war between the tax payers and the parasites. Remember it is the winner who writes history.
You only have to look at the true story of Thanksgiving to see how history is being rewritten. link 1 and link 2
Paul Ehrlich, the definitive alarmist … but only in our lifetimes because he is merely a modern day clone of the alarmists of centuries ago blaming all ills of the moment like earthquakes, floods, droughts, plagues, crop failure, fire and ice on a comet in the sky or God’s wrath and sacrificed a hundred oxen and friars.
The word “Science” should never appear in the same sentence as “Paul Ehrlich”, except for purposes of drawing a stark contrast, like this one. They are antonyms, polar opposites.
Paul Ehrlich is no different than the kooks we used to see around Times Square and Bryant Park wearing sandwich boards that proclaimed: “The End Is Near. Repent!“. He is also a symbol of the state of decay of higher education in the USA, naturally granted tenure to ensure his continual ridiculous prophecizing with no possible accountability.
Rud Istvan says: @ July 22, 2013 at 6:27 pm
…. Bottom line, irrigation has reached limits, best practice limits (feetilizer, planting types and practices) are being reached for some (not yet all, e.g. Rice) crops, intensification limits have been reached for most important crops (wheat, rice, alfalfa, potatoes, sorghum, taro…). Corn, soybeans, and vegetables are the notable intensification exceptions to date. And, some recent crop intensification practices are threatened by reversals from Darwinian pest evolution (best and most worrisome example being Ug99 wheat rust)….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
To some extent you are correct however you are leaving out the most basic principle. If left alone to get on with it mankind is highly innovative and quite capable of coming up with methods for growing food yet undreamed.
When ever someone says something like this I think of the old woman I met in the 1970’s. During her lifetime she saw the USA go from horse drawn wagons and outhouses to space travel and computers. It is only the greedy and the envious and the Luddites they are manipulating that hold mankind back from a decent standard of living. Worse it is done intentionally.
Keitho says: @ July 22, 2013 at 12:21 pm
America , like other advanced societies , will take advantage of this situation and why shouldn’t it. Until Haiti, and others , learn that being useless has big consequences they will never get their act together. That is nobody’s fault but their own.
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ferd berple says: @ July 22, 2013 at 6:38 pm
A large wealthy country can afford to flood a small poor country will cut rate goods, driving local producers out of business. At which point the large country can increase prices and take advantage of its manufactured monopoly to reap enormous profits.
Such a situation is not free trade, it is market manipulation, and it kills people. Either through poverty or through force of arms to try and resist. A rich country does not need to profit in this fashion. As you sow, so shall yea reap.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
To me it is even worse because it was done under the guise of ‘Socialism’ by President Clinton and his Fabian/Socialist buddies Tony Blair, UN Special Envoy and WTO Director Pascal Lamy (The WTO on Agriculture: Food as a Commodity) among others.
“Social Justice’ anyone?
Rud Istvan says:
July 22, 2013 at 6:27 pm
IMO Best this site stick to its expertise, climate, rather than air ill informed biases on fundamentally different topics.
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Following your own logic, you should therefore not be offering others advice. Rather you should stick to climate.
As to the expertise of readers on this site, I expect more than a few are like myself. I found that Climate Doctrine was at odds with the findings in my own areas of expertise. I tried to make this information public on sites like Real Climate and was shouted down, censored, and not allowed even the basic fundamentals of reasoned argument and debate.
And I asked myself why? Why if the science is settled, if the researchers are so certain of their results, why would they act in this fashion to prevent reasoned debate. That is not how science works. So I researched the question and found the answer. Climate Science is not a science. No true science needs to include the word “science” in its name.
Climate Science is a cult, a belief system, a religion dressed in the trappings of science. It is a high priest, wearing a lab coat, carrying a clip board. Any time something happens to fit the belief, that is proof of the belief. Every time something happens to contradict the belief, that is evidence that change is just around the corner, and with this change will come even more proof of the belief.
Skunkpew says:
July 22, 2013 at 4:10 pm
when obesity is such a growing (no pun intended) problem.
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shortage of micro nutrients from food produced on heavily farmed land will induce food cravings in the population, increasing the rate of obesity. perhaps the solution to obesity is a simple as adding some dirt from the ocean bottom to our diet.
ferd berple says:
July 22, 2013 at 7:29 pm
“shortage of micro nutrients from food produced on heavily farmed land will induce food cravings in the population, increasing the rate of obesity. perhaps the solution to obesity is a simple as adding some dirt from the ocean bottom to our diet.”
Perhaps an easier solution would be to close all McDonalds, Wendys, Burger Kings et al.
Fat may be ugly, but, like ugly cars and ugly houses and ugly music, FAT IS FREEDOM.
LOL, even if all the fast-food places were closed, they’d still go buy a box of doughnuts and eat the whole thing topped off with two bottles of sugary pop.
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Most American farmland’s nutrient content is, I believe, well-maintained by planting nitrogen (or other nutrient)-replacing cover crops in the off-season, crop rotation, and or fertilizing. It is the “organic” and “sustainable” divisions of the Fantasy Science Club who falsely mischaracterize mainline farming as less healthy (along with their cohorts in the “no gene splicing/Franken food” flummadiddle chapter). Most farmers with farms of any size in this valley have bachelors degrees (or at least one of their kids do) in Agriculture from W.S.U. (Wash State) or O.S.U. (Oregon State) (or have the Envirostalinists taken over O.S.U., Jim S.?). They learn the hard science of farming.
About a year ago, I had an annoying conversation with my friend who is, sadly, a brainwashed member of the “Sustainability” [Translation: requiring no CO2 emissions, since we are just about to run out of fossil fuels AND CO2 is killing the planet, don’t you know!] Division of the Fantasy Science Club (among other divisions, alas; the most tragic membership was, in my view, her joining the Paul Ehrlich Don’t-Have-Kids-to-Save-the-Planet Cult, so, she and her husband didn’t — not that choosing to not have kids is ALWAYS a tragedy, just that for that particular reason it is very sad). Anyway, my friend had the bright idea that she would start a consulting business “helping farmers.”
“Helping farmers? How?” I asked.
“By telling them how to farm with less water and less damage to the environment and, well, sustainable farming methods,” she replied fervently.
“But, there is plenty of water and those farmers are all well-educated in the latest farming science,” I said slowly, “it’s not like it was back in the 1920’s or something.”
Silence. Change of subject. Guess she decided she’d better go attend one of the meetings of the brethren before she tried again to make a convert.
And they do try. Have you noticed this? ANY chance they get, the few libs I have a chat with now and then try to convert me to the AGW cult. I encountered one in the plant section of Fred Meyer last May. “…. and have you noticed how HOT it’s been? I can hardly keep my plants watered.” We had had about 3 days of temperatures in the upper 70’s/lower 80’s F. — after which, it started raining again.
“Even the optimistic FAO explicitly does not see any present way forward to feed its projected 2050 population, save some hoped for not yet in evidence miracle. A more detailed analysis shows feeding projected 2050 popularion is just possible under a specific set of limiting assumtions”
Rud,
Have you even paid attention to recent population trends on a global level? By 2050, no one will be talking about a “population bomb”, anymore. Heck, Japan and Russia are already losing population. Europe’s population will be down a quarter from where it is now. The US will more than likely fall below 300 million by 2050 (that is unless it can find tens of millions of fertile immigrants). Even Mexico and South America have birth rates at or below replacement levels. China is a demographic time bomb, and India’s population growth rate has peaked.
The problem of population and food by 2050 will not due to over farming or over population.
Janice Moore says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:07 pm
Most American farmland’s nutrient content is, I believe, well-maintained by planting nitrogen (or other nutrient)-replacing cover crops in the off-season, crop rotation, and or fertilizing…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Actually not. Cover crops cost money (White Dutch Clover and Korean Lespedeza is ~ $200/50lbs) and time and effort so it is often not done especially on rented or commercial farmland.
My farm lost over two foot of top soil and is now down to pure clay (98% per soil analysis), that is why it was sold. Fertilizers do not put back the micro-nutrients. or organic matter. I notice that fire ant mounds on my farm were surrounded by much greener, lusher grass which may indicate nutrients deep in the soil had been brought to the surface by the ants. I also found switching from a livestock salt block (mainly NaCl) to loose mineral salts had a significant effect on my livestock. Less grain was needed to keep condition, coat color became more intense and did not fade as much in the sun and less worming was needed across three different species, horse, sheep and goat. All three species have coat colors of white, black and various shades of brown.
In other words no one has really bothered to really look at micronutrients except in livestock.
That paper led to:
“(Ahem.) Of course, the relevant metric is production PER CAPITA, and it has been dropping for many years now:”
(Ahem.) Not really Sedron L. From you same source:
http://www.springerimages.com/Images/LifeSciences/1-10.1007_s12571-009-0026-y-3
It looks like the per capita production is pretty stable. And it is clear that it is being done on less land, with fewer seeds and less fertilizer.
But I did like the scary projected drop in your cited graph. Too bad it doesn’t seem to have any relationship to their own data or reality.
And their graph clearly shows increased yield per hectare with fewer hectares harvested. So if there really is a problem, just put some of those hectares that are no longer in production back into production. Combined with increased yield per hectare, problem solved.
http://www.springerimages.com/Images/LifeSciences/1-10.1007_s12571-009-0026-y-2
Repeating something again:
Consider dairy in India. Let’s postulate that each Indian averages 8 oz of milk per day, or 62 million gallons of milk for the country. Someone has to grow the crops that feed the cows that produce the milk. Now lets add refrigeration to the country so that milk can be kept for weeks instead of hours between milking and drinking. Are more or fewer gallons poured out for going sour? Do we need more or less grain?
First world countries (with developed infrastructure and cheap reliable energy) are able to consume more calories even when fewer calories are produced. Any decline in produced grain absolutely must take this into account. In which countries do you think it is most likely for a large pile of corn to rot and be tossed? Probably not the one where there is controlled drying and humidity sensors in the storage silo. As these practices are adopted in other countries then we should expect grain production to fall (although an increase in protein consumption could hold the average stable).
An Inquirer says:
Sedron L @ July 22, 2013 at 9:12 am talks about per capita.
There must be something amiss with your chart because it does not square with reality. Worldwide, starvation is on the decrease.
Starvation is usully a result of misallocation of resources, not the lack of them.
ddpalmer says:
http://www.springerimages.com/Images/LifeSciences/1-10.1007_s12571-009-0026-y-3
It looks like the per capita production is pretty stable. And it is clear that it is being done on less land, with fewer seeds and less fertilizer.
But I did like the scary projected drop in your cited graph.
I think you misread the graph — it displays no projections.
@Sedron – Actually yes it does. It is the tailing off towards the right. Look again.
ddpalmer says:
And their graph clearly shows increased yield per hectare with fewer hectares harvested. So if there really is a problem, just put some of those hectares that are no longer in production back into production. Combined with increased yield per hectare, problem solved.
Ha. Lack of land is part of the problem, due to sprawl, population growth, water supply and climate change. There is little land going fallow, just waiting to be put back into production.
Joe says:
To date at least, by far the biggest effect of climate change on available food has been the diversion of crops from food to fuel.
Not, according to the expert who wrote the PNAS paper, in North America. And not, according to Lobell and Field (2007):
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/2/1/014002
How pathetic if your scientific legacy is a litany of predictions of doom – that didn’t happen.
Paul and Anne Ehrlich have been failing at predicting for at least 45 yrs now.Still these people are payed to do “research” and to present their ideas. What could better show that the peer review system doesn’t work in the short term?
A good friend of mine maintains that it is ‘normal’ for bad science to take 40yrs to be corrected.
Let’s see how long Paul and Anne Ehrlich get away with it.
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate ….” Paul Ehrlich, “The Population Bomb, 1968. How does an awful purveyor of awfulness, one who has gotten it wrong so many times is still listened to and given any credence?
Of course there is always this!
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=soylent+green&id=C29BB7095FDCCF7E9A50B189D0B28329C9B93EBA&FORM=IQFRBA#view=detail&id=C29BB7095FDCCF7E9A50B189D0B28329C9B93EBA&selectedIndex=0
Sedron L says:
“I think you misread the graph — it displays no projections.”
I know you need to go back to your original comment. The graph YOUR link goes directly too clearly shows projections past 2021.
Nice try and thanks for playing.
Really? You mean the half billion extra acres of trees in North America since the 18th century are just everyone’s imagination?
You mean that forest that was a farm just down the road from me, never produced?
Or do you mean it destroys your meme, and you have no facts to back up such a ridiculous assertion?
JP may hallucinate a dropping US/world population, but the projections are for the US to go well over 400 million by 2050. I and my children soooo look forward to California doubling again and again as it has done in my lifetime, from under 10 million to 38 million.
Raymond,
The projections do not measure to current population trends. The last 2 years have seen the lowest birthrates in US history. The 2010 Census had the slowest rate of population growth in the US since 1932. The US’s population is growing; but it’s only growing due to long life spans. According to Census Data in 2000 and 2010, only Hispanic immigration allowed our populations to rise. And the Hispanic TFR (Total Fertility Rate) in the US dropped from 3.36 in 2005 to under 2.2 in 2011. The TFR of Mexico has dropped from 6.0 in 1970 to 2.38 in 2012. The Median Age in the US is currently 37.5 years as compared to 24 in 1972. In other words, not only is the US significantly older, but even its immigrant population is failing to reproduce at replacement levels. The US population will only continue to grow because people are dieing off slower than newborns are entering the world. Once the Baby Boomers leave this world. the US population will drop significantly unless it is replenished with foreigners. That is not likely to happen.
As I stated earlier, Russia, Japan, almost all of Europe, and China are even in a worse position. Russia and Japan are already losing population. Germany is about to, as is Italy, Greece, Spain, Ireland and much of Eastern Europe. North Africa’s birthrate as now mostly below replacement levels of 2.1 births (down from an average of 5.5 births/female 40 years ago). Even India is headed for demographic problems. Most of South America has birth rates below replacement levels. Only portions of Africa and East Asia have positive birth rates.
Not sure where all this growth is going to happen. The UN’s own demographic data does not support its positive projections. If current trends continue. The world’s population will peak sometime between 2035-2040 before rapidly declining after 2045-2050.