From NOAA/NWS Western Regional Headquarters, something that makes me wonder if they’ll have a similar celebration of the coldest temperature in the USA of −79.8 °F (−62.1 °C) recorded in Prospect Creek, Alaska on January 23rd, 1975, or the coldest temperature on Earth of −128.6 °F ( −89.2 °C ) at the Soviet Vostok Station in Antarctica, on July 21st, 1983. Somehow, I doubt it.
They offer this once in a lifetime event (open to the public):
Join the Celebration:
On July 10th, 1913 the weather observer at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California recorded a high temperature of 134°F (56.7°C). This is the highest reliably recorded air temperature on Earth. Please join us at the Furnace Creek Visitor Center on Wednesday, July 10th, 2013 to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the world record high temperature. By attending you will:
- Experience the conditions that make Death Valley the hottest place on Earth.
- Be there as the official temperature observation is made.
- Learn about Weather and Climate Extremes (WMO Extremes Archive)
- Learn about how another claim to the world’s hottest temperature title was invalidated after 90 years.
- Learn about protecting yourself from extreme heat from people who live there.
Guest Speakers:
- Christopher Burt – Weather Underground
- Dr. Randall Cerveny – Ariz. State University/World Meteorological Organization
- Chris Stachelski – NOAA’s National Weather Service – Las Vegas, NV
- TBD – Death Valley National Park
About the record:
Death Valley, California is known for being a land of extremes, including its climate. Temperatures here normally reach or exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit from mid-May until early October. On July 10, 1913 a temperature of 134 degrees Fahrenheit was recorded here which stands as the hottest air temperature ever recorded on a properly sighted and maintained thermometer anywhere in the world.
During July 1913, Death Valley endured an intense stretch of hot weather from the 5th through the 14th when the high temperature reached 125 degrees Fahrenheit or greater every day. This 10 day consecutive stretch ranks as the longest such period on record here. The hottest days were from the 9th through the 13th when the high reached at least 129 degrees Fahrenheit. The most sweltering day was on July 10th when the temperature spiked to 134 degrees Fahrenheit. Although Death Valley was known for being an extremely hot place, this reading helped to solidify this reputation.
On September 13, 1922 a temperature of 136 degrees Fahrenheit was recorded at El Azizia, Libya. This was eventually certified by the World Meteorological Organization as the hottest air temperature ever recorded on Earth. However, evidence about the 136 degree reading suggested that it was invalid. On September 12, 2012 the World Meteorological Organization officially re-certified the 134 degree reading at Death Valley as the all-time highest air temperature recorded on the planet.
Agenda:
| 11:00 – 12:00 | Press conference and media interviews |
| 12:00 – 12:20 | What Makes Death Valley the Hottest Place on Earth? – NWS |
| 12:20 – 12:45 | History of the Death Valley Weather Station – Chris Stachelski, NWS |
| 12:45 – 1:30 | What is it Like to Live in the Hottest Place on Earth? – NPS |
| 1:30 – 1:50 | Break |
| 1:50 – 2:35 | Overturning the Libya Record – Christopher Burt, Weather Underground |
| 2:35 – 3:20 | World’s hottest recorded temperature? Who’s to blame? – Dr. Randall Cerveny, WMO/ASU |
| 3:20 – 3:45 | What Made July 10, 1913 So Hot? – Chris Stachelski, NWS |
| 3:45 | Head outside for 4:00 temperature observation. |
Contact Information:
| Dan Berc | Cheryl Chipman |
| Warning Coordination Meteorologist | Public Information Officer |
| National Weather Service | Death Valley National Park |
| Las Vegas, NV | Furnace Creek, CA |
| daniel.berc@noaa.gov | cheryl_chipman@nps.gov |
| (702) 263-9744 x223 | (760) 786-3207 |
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Word has it that CNN will be there. Hopefully Al Gore will attend also so that we can get the full power of the Gore effect demonstrated on international television.
Barring that, I have a friend who flies an air fire tanker who might be able to supply some instant comic relief.
We have to much time on our hands.
More “Hot Air” sponsored by NOAA?
they had to get a “who’s to blame” in didn’t they.
Muppets.
Hurry celebrate now before134F gets homogenised away.
I wonder whether “properly sighted” means it has a clear view of the surrounding conditions or whether they are simply illiterate and meant “properly sited”.
And why would you want people to voluntarily come and expose themselves to such high temperatures. Everyone in the UK knows that (according to the BBC during earlier hot spells) temperatures above 30 deg C are lethal.
I think it is nice that they point out that this heat record has not been broken in 100 years. I just can’t imagine that Al Gore would leave the climatized environment of one of his manisons to break into sweat to attend.
“..makes me wonder if they’ll have a similar celebration of the coldest temperature in the USA of −79.8 °F (−62.1 °C) recorded in Prospect Creek, Alaska on January 23rd, 1975, or the coldest temperature on Earth of −128.6 °F ( −89.2 °C ) at the Soviet Vostok Station in Antarctica, on July 21st, 1983. Somehow, I doubt it.”
Instead of just whimpering about it, Tony, you could do something. 😉 Uuups! Forgot. You won’t be about then. By then they’ll no doubt be commiserating those looong gone cold records. Or on the other hand, as we’re on our way towards the “New Little Ice Age”, by that time the cold records ought to have tumbled regularly…
This is temperature the sun can heat to the normal COOLING effect of the atmosphere are turned off by small blockages in circulation.
There is no need for any greenhouse effect, just spread this heat around the globe..
Anyway.. its good to know the world still capable of the same maximum temperature now, as it was 100 years ago.
I take it that your friend in the tanker will pour some cold water on all the hot air.
Make sure to park all the vehicles with their exhaust pipes aimed towards the thermometer. Also run all the air conditioners full blast. Be there!
ps.. do people realise that when the sun is directly overhead at the equation, the 342w/m2 reading is well inside the arctic circle !! (75 deg to be nearly precise)
Fantastic! For a while there I thought this was being promoted by CAGW skeptics …. but I still think it is very educational to highlight that the hottest air temperature on earth was recorded 100 years ago.
Surely that’s going to make the average citizen stop and think; “Hang on, haven’t they been telling us it’s been continuously getting warmer for the last 50 years or so?”
um this looks pretty innocent to me. with sincere respect, attributing this to an NOAA “agenda” is a little black helicopterish if you ask me. just my opinion.
Peter Plail says:
July 2, 2013 at 3:46 am
And why would you want people to voluntarily come and expose themselves to such high temperatures. Everyone in the UK knows that (according to the BBC during earlier hot spells) temperatures above 30 deg C are lethal.
——————————————————————————————————————————–
The average daily high for Richmond, VA, is 32°C. I’ve been attempting the “lethal for us senior citizens” excuse for going fishing and not cutting the grass. She who must be obeyed is not amused.
The NPS has curtailed activities at Civil War parks around here for temps above 100°F because of health concerns. 134°F can be really dangerous for people who are not prepared for it and for some who are prepared. I can’t imagine what NOAA is thinking with this invitation. Obamacare that good in CA?
100 years and no increase. So I guess just the rest of the planet is warming, not Death Valley?
From an AGW point of view this must be a diappointment; no warming for a hundred years. 🙂
But from another point of view: According to the coordinates the sun should be about 13 degrees from zenith in the middle of the day. With no atmosphere this would correspond to about 1330 W/m2 incoming radiation, which for a blackbody (as the earth is compared to in such situations) would give a surface temperature of 244 degrees F. Even with a desert albedo of 20% it would be 206 degrees F. With an atmosphere the greenhouse effect should add substantially with back radiation and give an even much higher temperature. But the reality shows the opposite, it is much, much lower. Not denying radiation from CO2, this must be a good example of the very strong effect of convection; it beats the greenhouse effect. If the greenhouse effect increases, so does the the convection. A matter of balance.
I was once in Death Valley, more than 30 years ago.
It rained.
So.. Will the event be attended by people using fossil fuels or do they intend to cycle, hike etc?
JPS. Spot on. It looks like the whole thing is just about a previous record. That can’t be sure that a high pressure stall over AZ will still be there in 8 days. Frankly, in MN we love it when these events happen as the same Hi-P stall over AZ that causes these records temps is the same event that causes MN to have beautiful summer weather. After spending many a summer in the field in the desert SW I have to say, why the heck would anyone live there. This is pretty normal in the big picture. Lethal weather that you can barely escape. At least at -50 F you can put some clothes on.
NOAA thinks the Libyan thermometer is poorly sited? Pot, meet kettle.
And is Death Valley really “the hottest place on earth”? What about those locations in Saudi and Kuwait, etc. that (occasionally) have it worse?
It may not be as bad as suspected. Dr. Cerveny has been associated with some well-known skeptics in the climatology field.
> 1:50 – 2:35 Overturning the Libya Record – Christopher Burt, Weather Underground
If anyone goes, ask what the motivation was to reexamine that record reading so many years after it was recorded. A perfectly innocent answer is that it hadn’t been beaten in that many years. The reason it was overturned made a lot of sense, the claim is that a novice observer read the wrong end of the wire on the max thermometer (the wire is pushed up by mercury and remains there when it retreats).
AndyG55 says:
July 2, 2013 at 4:10 am
Which equation? Stefan–Boltzmann, I presume. 🙂
Trond A says “If the greenhouse effect increases, so does the convection. A matter of balance.”
Yesm.. its controlled by the pressure gradient. Increase the temp at the surface, the atmosphere tries harder to cool it down. But without a lot of H2O, the cooling is not as effective.
Ric, the flat earth climate models use 342w/m2 as the solar energy. ie quarter of the direct incident TSI.
So if the sun is directly overhead at the equator you have 1368w/m2 (or close to), and you have to go 75 degrees to get quarter that value.
Just for the record, I went to Death Valley at midday in July about 15 years ago, it was over 125 degrees F – never again.
This party looks a little too much like someone is worried about budget cuts and is trying to drum up some PR for the cause of bloated bureaucracies in government climate organisations.
Does it all matter?
I observed 57.1 degC at the Yibal oilfield in Oman about 80 km from the Saudi border in 2002. That was hot, real hot, and made my central Australia seem quite mild. Omanis who had worked there for years said at the time that they had witnessed 61 degC several years earlier. In 2003 I spent the summer 80 km away at Lekhwair oilfiled, also in Oman, on the Saudi / UAE / Omani border where every day for my whole 28 days roster the maximum temperature was at least 52 degC, most days exceeding 53 degC. The Omani rig hands just kept working and chattering away, 40 minutes on the rigfloor and 20 minutes off in the aircon. The Omanis stay wrapped up in the wooly scarves until it reaches the high 40s but then heat retention exceeds heat loss via evaporation through the wooly mesh so they start stripping off. The Omanis have adapted to higher – much higher – temperatures than most people will ever experience. OK the meteorological obs weren’t done in a strictly scientific way but the engineer in me made sure that I protected the gauge from as much radiation exposure and conductive heat gain as I could. A year earlier I was at a well 150 km further south on the Saudi border in the empty quarter – Google that area, there’s nothing there, no roads or towns, no observable signs of life, just the old dead little bush. It was just as hot. There are a lot of hot places in this world, most not monitored, and somewhere has to be the hottest. Being able to proudly claim the record proves nothing. I guess it gives a place a reputation and makes money for someone. Of course, it just has to be in the good ol’ US of A otherwise it aint important and aint worth mentioning. And – an old memory, probably corrupted by age – years ago didn’t the Guiness Book of Records used to list a place in Ethiopa as the hottest at 61degC in 1965?
What made it so hot in 1913? Just freakish weather I guess. If one day is 0.1 deg hotter now it is global warming.
Headline in LA Times-
“As tourists flock to heat, Death Valley plans party: Hottest day ever”
Jay Jones, July 1, 2013
So, we have people traveling in response to a weather extreme.
Climateers claim that man’s carbon toxins drive all weather extremes (and all routine weather as well?).
Can the tourists flocking to Furnace Creek claim status as ‘climate refugees’?
Are they entitled to climate reparation money laundered by the UN?
1913..? How can that be..? Everyone knows that ‘climate’ only started about 1975….
Even if the record temperature of 134 deg F is equalled or exceeded this year it will not be as extreme a hot record as the 1913 event.
The decade average back then was around two deg F lower than the present so that 134deg F record was two degrees more above the average than any current record.
The larger the margin between the average for a month and the record (low or high) the less frequently such records occur. The probability follows a power law rather than a Gaussian distribution. This means that any current temperature equalling or surpassing the old record is actually less extreme and much more probable than the old record.
I’m all for highlighting our current inability to break this record.
This is just bazaar. With all the anticipation and money spent on the event it makes me wonder that someone might try to rig the scene to make it happen. I hope there is more than one thermometer.
I suspect we’re reading too much into this event. If we follow the rule of “Follow the money” I think we might find the local chamber of commerce or tourism board behind the whole thing, with NOAA merely pasted on the front for appearances.
Small towns are always looking for money and tourist money is sweet sweet stuff. How to get some is the question. Any marketer will tell you that you sell what ya got, and if you ain’t got nuthin, you make something, ahem, find something. In a world where, for a small fee, we can see the image of Jesus in a ham sandwich, or visit the building which was formerly Elvis’ Junior High School, I don’t find this event too surprising.
So, do you think they will talk about nature’s extremes and beauty, or make it a climate change political event?
Have they never measured the air temperature over a volcano?
When has science (of the non political variety) ever been about “blame?”
A deep sea black smoker is a lot hotter also.
Let’s start celebrating all weather events. Brrrrr.
“highest reliably recorded air temperature on Earth”
That’s because the empty quarter in Arabia is so hot and dry and foreign that no one considered “reliable” goes there. Since Death Valley is 282 feet below sea level, I’m curious about how many degrees would come off if you corrected for lapse rate effects and adjusted to a sea level elevation.
We did a snowball fight at Badwater Basin – that’s how cold it really is there 😉 — Brought our snow from the mountains 🙂
That seems to work in our favor. Celebrating a world record in heat that is over 100 years old would seem to bring attention to the fact that it IS 100 YEARS OLD!
Eli rather suspects this event is the result of some real science. Read it.
Fascinating. The floor of Death Valley is radiating some 673w/m^2 which exceeds TSI at TOA.
Accuweather doesn’t even predict it to be close to 134 deg F.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/death-valley-ca/92328/july-weather/2258469
Bunniboi comments here because he gets no traffic on his own blog. Maybe that is because no one is interested in reading about a putative adult who pretends to be a rabbit.
NOAA just sent me an email telling me that they will no longer be sending weather alerts because of cost. But they can find the money for this sort of garbage?
Pity they can’t afford anyone to proof read their press releases too:
“recorded on a properly sighted and maintained thermometer” should of course read “recorded on a properly sited and maintained thermometer”
World’s hottest recorded temperature? Who’s to blame????????
……….in 1913!
Goldie says:
July 2, 2013 at 4:52 am
So.. Will the event be attended by people using fossil fuels or do they intend to cycle, hike etc?
———————————-
Silly, they’ll arrive in in town in their private jets and be driven to the “sight” in big black SUVs.
I recommend everybody show up in EVs and touring bicycles.
Prove that you mean it.
BTW don’t forget, if Al Gore is coming bring a jacket.
cn
Since Warmists have now shifted to blaming hot weather on global warming, I’ll blame unprecedented summer snow on catastrophic global cooling. 🙂
I assume everybody will be parking their cars as close to the weather station as possible?
Also, will they be checking the temperature every few minutes just in case they they miss getting the reading on TV?
This looks like the “Golly Gee!” contingent at NOAA. They seem to be breathlessly naive about their own PR effort. Only “true believing” alarmists could muster the energy to celebrate the possibility that a 100 year high temperature record might be broken. There is no point in giving them the standard explanation of why high temperatures record are worthless.
Will wonders never cease? Might NOAA minds be opening up beyond the ‘consensus science’ crowd? I think it is noteworthy that this NOAA-sponsored program includes Dr. Cerveny, who is a listed ‘Expert’ by the Heartland Institute.
This marketing event just shows how broke the CA parks are and desperately need the cash flow. It is kind of like the photo radars that they have installed at the stop signs in some of the state parks that send you a $50.00 ticket for not completely coming to a stop even though you are already only going 15 mph through the parking lot because of all the speed bumps.
‘Eli rather suspects this event is the result of some real science. Read it.’
Yes, real science! An inaccurate surface temperature reading that took 90 years to adjust downward.
The only thing Death Valley needs is more cowbell.
Meanwhile… on the other (eastern) side of the ridge this morning…
Record Low set at Amarillo: 55°F (previous 56° in 1924)
Record Low tied at Borger: 57°F (original 57° in 1995)
So much for sequestration in the NWS.
A war buddy of mine experienced 140 degrees F on the ramp in Kuwait with a plastic thermometer & recorded the sweaty event. It used to be my screen wallpaper.
More NOAA conference, travel, and PSA costs at a time of sequester cuts? How can that be?
In amongst all this pie-throwing, can I say that visiting Death Valley, Badwater and surrounds was one of the landmark experiences of my life. I wasn’t stupid enough to go there in summer, though.
In the middle of vast, flat, deeply encrusted salt flats were little puddles inhabited by brine shrimp and other creatures. The sun sizzled off the salt like it was snow – and in the distance were forbidding mountains with romantic names like The Badlands.
At the risk of further over-running the place with tourists, can I say that along with the Grand Canyon, it is a wonder of the world.
Shouldn’t the very fact that it took 100 years (i.e. nearly 2/3 of the entire Industrial Age) to break the old record by a statistically insignificant margin say everything about the insignificance of this event WRT alleged anthropogenic global warming?
izen says:
July 2, 2013 at 5:39 am
Even if the record temperature of 134 deg F is equalled or exceeded this year it will not be as extreme a hot record as the 1913 event.
The decade average back then was around two deg F lower than the present so that 134deg F record was two degrees more above the average than any current record.
Nope, you appear to be confusing global with regional. You would have to know the “average” of the Death Valley region at that time to determine delta increase. And, as was shown in the thread below, the Death Valley temperatures are not easily determined by so-called global temperatures.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/30/it-seems-noaa-has-de-modernized-the-official-death-valley-station-to-use-older-equipment-to-make-a-record-more-likely/
brians356 says:
July 2, 2013 at 10:46 am
Absolutely. But alarmists are allergic to the obvious.
Theo,
My hometown of Lewiston, Idaho (LWS) sees average high temperatures of 89 degrees (f) in July. The all-time high temperature record of 117 degrees (!) was recorded in … … 1962. Oh the irony.
“””””…..AndyG55 says:
July 2, 2013 at 4:10 am
ps.. do people realise that when the sun is directly overhead at the equation, the 342w/m2 reading is well inside the arctic circle !! (75 deg to be nearly precise)……””””””
“…when the sun is directly overhead at the equation, the 342w/m2 reading is well inside the arctic circle !! …””
Well, I doubt it.
I’ll give you the typo , and have the sun over the equator, instead of whichever equation you had in mind.
But not this : “””””…..the 342w/m2 reading…..”””””
With the sun on the equator, both poles are in sunlight: All day long in fact, since the sun is only over the equator at the equinoxes. And at the equinoxes, the TSI, total solar insolation is fairly close to 1362 W/m^2.
Nobody ever got a “””””…..reading……””””” of 342W/m^2 when pointing a radiometer at the sun.
Now the polar sun elevation is not going to be much, maybe one degree max, due to atmospheric refraction. When the bottom limb of the sun is apparently right on the horizon (oceanic) the sun itself is completely below the geometrical horizon.
But at your 75 deg. latitude, the equinoxial sun elevation will be more than 15 degrees above the horizon. At that sun elevation, the atmospheric extinction, is nowhere near 75%, so the “reading” will be closer to 1,000 W/m^2 than to 342.
The 342 number is a fiction that nobody ever read on a radiometer pointed at the sun in CAVU.
342 W/m^2 on the ground on the equator, at noon, could not even bring the surface Temperature up to 288 K, let alone +134 deg F.
And I don’t see any reason to place any more credibility in a 134 deg F Death Valley reading in 1913, than a 136 deg F reading in Libya in 1922.
Somebody measured a +173 deg F surface reading on the Las Vegas strip, just the other day. I have no idea what the calibration of the non contact thermometer can guarantee.
But you can’t reach any of those Temperatures at 342 W/m^2, without some very fancy frequency selective surface coatings.
But
Anthony – it’s an extremely good news – a temperature record not broken in 100 years! You should speak there. That’s definitely something to celebrate.
@ Eli Rabett
Eli might have missed this:
“”””””……This committee identified five major concerns with the 1922 El Azizia temperature extreme record, specifically 1) potentially problematical instrumentation, 2) a probable new and inexperienced observer at the time of observation, 3) unrepresentative microclimate of the observation site, 4) poor correspondence of the extreme to other locations, and 5) poor comparison to subsequent temperature values recorded at the site.
1) potentially ……………, 2) …. probable new…. inexperienced observer……………….., 3) unrepresentative (yamal like)………….., 4) poor correspondence…….. to other locations (such as Vostok), and 5) poor……….. subsequent (next winter)temperature values ……………
Talk about weasel word “science”. Does “potentially” mean the same as “unprecedented.” ?
My favorite is #2. Yes blame the poor slob who made the observation. I seem to recall that “ad hominem” argument, is the nadir of debating tactics; gets you a fail, even at 4H-club events.
I was impressed by how many eminent international scientist got credit for this hatchet job on some as yet unidentified (maybe Arab) lab technician.
Yeah Eli; the science of innuendo !
But at your 75 deg. latitude, the equinoxial sun elevation will be more than 15 degrees above the horizon. At that sun elevation, the atmospheric extinction, is nowhere near 75%, so the “reading” will be closer to 1,000 W/m^2 than to 342.
Doesn’t the angle of the square meter matter?
At an latitude of 75 degres, the cosine if the normal to the sun is 0.259.
So the maximum incident solar radiation to the ground at 75 deg N at equinox would be
1362 W/m^2 normal incident solar * 0.259 = 352.2 W/m^2 at local noon.
Now deduct for atmospheric dust, clouds, and reflectivity, and angle away from noon.
@Curious George 12:12 pm
Anthony – it’s an extremely good news – a temperature record not broken in 100 years! You should speak there. That’s definitely something to celebrate.
Far be it from me to suggest anyone go there….
But there could be an opportunity to advertize the surfacestations.org project.
Maybe even an impromptu poster session under a big white (shady) awning.
If you are denied permission for a fixed awning, then maybe a human wearing a sandwich board with posters and holding a beach umbrella would garner attention. Just brainstorming.
And I thought that only crazy European tourists (myself included) would visit Death Valley mid-summer. Maybe NOAA only invites innocent Europeans? Or is this a medical test, just to increase the rates of heat related mortality?
Is there some sort of climate controlled facility there where they will be having this event? Or will everyone be standing around in the blazing heat? This seems kind of foolish and irresponsible to gather the general public outdoors for a day in the Death Valley heat for no particular reason!
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Didn’t you know that steam engines were burning coal back then? The original “Coal Trains of Death”! (Valley, that is. Black gold. Texas …er… West Virginia Tea.)
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Never. It’s about understanding cause and effect. (I know. Oversimplified.) Unfortunately some snakes have found a way profit by convincing the sheep that they are to blame for the cause.
@ Stephen Rasey
Saved me the bother of explaining.. been my sleep time 🙂
As George says, at 75 degrees, its probably nearer 1000w downward TSI x cos 75 degrees = 260w/m2 incident to surface. so the mythical Trenberthian value of 342w/m2 probably occurs around 70 degrees off centre.
@ George.. sorry, the word ‘reading’ was bad. it was nearly midnight though. 🙂
I was referring to surface incident value.
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Tough luck Amarillo and Borger. They stopped promoting “Global Cooling” decades ago.
Attend a party in
Death Valley, California,
on July 10th?!!
You’d have to be insane!
Death Valley SHOULD be celebrating the tying a new all-time temperature record (129F), and/or celebrating the “overturning” of the “record” reports from July 1913. The temperature data from Death Valley/Greenland Ranch in July 1913 are — take your pick — dubious, flawed, untrustworthy, unreliable, not credible, bogus, etc. The high temperatures “observed” from July 9 to 13, 1913, included two 129s, a 130, a 131, and a 134F. Yet in all other years since 1911 (when the weather station at Greenland Ranch in Furnace Creek was established) the highest temperature is 129F. In 103 summers, annual maximum temperatures at Death Valley range from 119F to 129F — except for the 134F in 1913. How many standard deviations from the average annual maximum temperature is 134F?! A lot!
During the “hot” week in July 1913, daily maximum temperatures at the closest surrounding desert stations (Jean, NV; Independence, CA; Barstow, CA; and Tonopah, CA) were no more than ten degrees above average for July. Yet, the maximums temperature reports at Greenland Ranch are 14 to 19 degrees above the July average of about 115F. This simply does not happen in the Mojave Desert during summer hot spells!! High temperatures are easily predictable when a large upper high smothers the region in summer (assuming no cooling moisture/thunderstorm intrusions). Afternoon high temperatures are a function of elevation and the temperature of the air mass between about 600 and 800 millibars. If the atmosphere had been warm enough to support afternoon maximums from 129F to 134F in Death Valley from July 9 to 13, then the reports from Jean, Independence, Barstow, and Tonopah would support this. They do not.
Death Valley’s 100-year temperature record does not support the max temp reports from July 1913. Surrounding station data do not support the 130F-plus reports. The first 20 years of temperature and precipitation records from Greenland Ranch are riddled with inconsistent data. In the hot spell over the weekend, Lancaster, Needles, Daggett, Las Vegas, Bishop, Desert Rock and other stations either set or tied ALL-TIME high temperature records, or came within a degree or two. Yet Death Valley fell five degrees short of its 134F in 1913. This does not add up, meteorologically or climatologically! If the maximum temperatures of 130, 131 and 134F were indeed legitimate in Death Valley in July 1913, then there would have been additional 130F-plus readings there in the past 100 years, as there have been numerous HOTTER heat waves in the Death Valley and Mojave Desert region since then.
What is the explanation? Easy — the 1913 data are wrong! Climatologists have speculated as to the cause of the big heat in DV in July 1913 —- local heat build-up, bad instruments, etc. But I figure that the cause is human error —- human incompetence — human indifference — human manipulation. I suspect that the observer in July 1913 (Oscar Denton) intentionally “bumped up” the maximum temperature readings that week. We will never know for sure. What we DO KNOW is that the max temps from Death Valley/Greenland Ranch in July, 1913, are outrageously inflated, and if they were to be reported next week, there would be a Federal investigation!
Here are a few links to my blog on recent DV heat:
http://stormbruiser.com/chase/2013/06/30/june-30-2013-death-valley-hits-128f/
http://stormbruiser.com/chase/2013/07/02/july-2-2013-death-valley-hits-129f/
http://stormbruiser.com/chase/2012/08/19/july-11-12-2012-death-valley-record-heat/
William Reid
Excellent work, William Reid. The 134 is clearly bogus, but I doubt it will ever be overturned. The record has been endorsed by NOAA for decades and it would cause too much embarrassment for it to be retracted. I also think the “record” is going to be safe for many years given the current heat wave couldn’t come close to it.
Ford – the Model T – beginning October 1, 1908. See how sensitive the environment is to automobile CO2 emissions?
/sarc and dry, very dry humor
.
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As a layman, the main reason I doubt what you’ve said about the 1913 temperature is that none of the CAGW promoters had put it forward. They would jump at it if there was anything to it.
But, even if you are right, the take away is that if we don’t know with certainty what the temperatures were in the past, (including the sites you site?) how do we know with certainty they are “extreme” now?
“””””…..AndyG55 says:
July 2, 2013 at 2:23 pm
@ Stephen Rasey
Saved me the bother of explaining.. been my sleep time 🙂
As George says, at 75 degrees, its probably nearer 1000w downward TSI x cos 75 degrees = 260w/m2 incident to surface. so the mythical Trenberthian value of 342w/m2 probably occurs around 70 degrees off centre…….”””””
Andy, it’s always a good idea to draw sketches to “sanity check” your words. You would quickly have seen that the axis tilt has no real effect at the equinoxes, which is the only time the sun is directly above the equator.
And I always take the insolation number, as being what you read, on a radiometer pointed directly at the sun, because that’s what a satellite reads.
And of course the extra-terrestrial TSI is independent of latitude. and measures the same pole to pole at the equinoxes; 1362 W/m^2, which comes down to about 1,000 in CAVU at about air mass 1.5, which allows for some increased slant angle atmospheric absorption.
A solar energy collector, would optimally be aligned normal to the sun vector. Of course, that energy is spread over a larger oblique area, if you consider the surface to be flat and horizontal.
The 342 number is 1/4 of the real TSI, on the theory that a sphere has four times the area of a circle. But that is not any real number. No physical processes are going on with solar radiation impinging on any surface at 342 W/m^2. Four leaps of six feet each, will not allow you to clear a 24 foot gap. They are NOT equivalent to a single 24 ft leap.
And since it is generally held that surfaces radiate EM radiation, at least thermal radiation with something akin to the theoretical black body spectrum, with some reduced (and maybe spectral emissivity), the we expect a T^4 dependence for the total emission. A 4:1 increase in total emission implies a 1.414 increase in effective radiating Temperature.
I suspect that part of the reason, the models don’t match reality, is all this averaged “forcings” nonsense.
If water boils away at +100 deg. C, in an elapsed time (t), it WILL NOT all boil away in a time (4t) if you heat it to +70.7 deg C
“””””…..Stephen Rasey says:
July 2, 2013 at 12:57 pm
But at your 75 deg. latitude, the equinoxial sun elevation will be more than 15 degrees above the horizon. At that sun elevation, the atmospheric extinction, is nowhere near 75%, so the “reading” will be closer to 1,000 W/m^2 than to 342.
Doesn’t the angle of the square meter matter?…..”””””
Well it does if you are tring to collect solar energy on a PV panel, in thearctic.
But if you read carefully what I wrote, I said the “reading” is taken by pointing the radiometer at the sun, so the square metre is normal to the sun vector, at whatever latitude you are. You can get lower readings by pointing the radiometer to some nebulous spot in outer space; but why would you do that ?
“Well it does if you are trying to collect solar energy on a PV panel, in the arctic”
or the surface of the Earth. That “reading” will be spread over 4 times the surface area than it would if it were directly overhead. There is a per meter squared in the “reading” that the reading device does not know about.
I presume that ceremonies will be out doors gathered round the weather station itself. Fireless wienie roasts and scrambled eggs would be in order too. Though there will probably be plenty of hot air, hot air ballons might be a flop.
If the wind is blowing on the happy clelbration day, I wonder if the wind chill factor will be taken into account. Erp!
George, I think we are both actually saying the same thing, vaguely (its been a tough week)
I am talking about the energy per m^2 at the Earth’s surface, you appear to be talking about the metre reading pointing directly at the Sun. Different things.
Anyways, the 342w/m^2 as used in Trenberthian energy equations is a farce.
F Ross says “there will probably be plenty of hot air”
of both varieties 🙂
Meanwhile, in Kansas, we’re experiencing mild temperatures of around 80 degrees. Sounds like weather being weather.
What was the lowest temp in the desert that day? I wonder how much they were paid for this. Actually F temps are taken in the shade, not in full sun, or they used to be. Wouldn’t be much shade in death valley would there?
Surely Jim Hansen can “adjust” this temperature before July 13. He’s looking for the new and improved data as we speak.
July 4th coming up folks, Independence day.
Well all this ballyhoo about Death Valley (not) breaking the world’s all time high Temperature, actually made the featured “news” story, on this afternoon’s Communist Chinese Television News (CCTV CH 36-3). They showed that you could melt ice cubes on the ground there, and even fry an egg on the ground. I don’t think the ground actually was 129 deg F. Notably, they never actually showed a picture of the official weather/climate thermometer, with any Temperature, let alone a record one. All they would say was that the record reading was taken “just over there.” Say dummy, why don’t you just haul your a*** just over there, and take some video of the Thermometer reading the record Temperature. The cackling Chinese tourist, could only say (in between giggles) that it was either the luckiest day, or the unluckiest day of his life; being there for the “record” non- display.
I’m guessing that the Chicoms are just cackling at the USA and Obama’s new 5-year plan on curbing climate change through electricity rate skyrocketing. They did have some nice pictures of parts of death valley; and by the look of the tourist people, it wasn’t a bit hot there. Maybe that’s why they didn’t show the official thermometer “right over there.”
These people have turned this into a weird fetish thing. I wonder if they will build and alter and give sacrifice to the sun or something?
“””””…..bushbunny says:
July 2, 2013 at 8:11 pm
July 4th coming up folks, Independence day……”””””
Actually the Declaration of Independence was signed by 12 of the 13 colonies, on July 2nd; today; Declaration Day. Well wouldn’t you know it, the New York delegation had not received their instructions whether to sign or not. Now there is commitment for you; a tradition that Mayor Bloomberg upholds to this day You show up for the most important single thing that ever happened on planet earth; and you haven’t even made up your damn mind what you should do.
Well by the time July 4th came around; NY had finally got over their stage fright, so they signed on July 4.
What I want to know is whether Hansen and allies will run around before the celebration turning off air conditioners and unplugging fans?
And don’t forget the afternoon nature hike from one thermometer to another scheduled at 1PM.
Better yet, maybe we should all book rooms at the ranch and fill it up before the media circus tries to get reservations or indoors…
Besides; I thought the park service didn’t like non-residents to visit during the summer months? Something about not understanding or being prepared for Death Valley?
Lets get more carbon in, in a hurry, to break the record!?
Lets face it, there is no such thing as the coldest day! Well, in NOaa land!
“””””…..AndyG55 says:
July 2, 2013 at 5:06 pm
“Well it does if you are trying to collect solar energy on a PV panel, in the arctic”
or the surface of the Earth. That “reading” will be spread over 4 times the surface area than it would if it were directly overhead. There is a per meter squared in the “reading” that the reading device does not know about……”””””
Well no Andy, you still don’t have it correct.
The sun illuminates a bit more than half of the earth surface, 24 hours per day, 365 1.4 days per year. But that surface has a projected area of pi.R^2. which is the total area intercepting solar energy. at 1362 W/m^2.
The actual solid/liquid surface sees something in the 1,000 W/m^2 range; probably a bit less. And that is over the pi.R^2 area. So no need to apply any cosine factors, which in any case is not the cause of the factor of four.
That comes from the fact that the total surface area of a sphere is 4.pi.R^2, so the total insolation, averaged over the entire globe surface 24/365 is 340.5 W/m^2.
The problem in the polar regions, where the solar altitude is low, is that the surface is typically snow, it is not an optical surface, tilted 75 degrees from the sun vector; it is a fractal optically anechoic surface, and it presents faces at all angles to the sun vector, besides 75 degrees ( for 15 deg sun altitude. So those micro facets pinting directly at the sun in the snow matrix, DO receive the full attenuated TSI, maybe 1,000 W/m^2, not the prorated 342 number. So they melt, which they might not do at 342 W/m^2. So the snow morphology changes rapidly under the sun, and when the melted snow refreezes, it tends to become ice, which is optically transparent, so next day, the reformulated “snow” is far more absorptive.
The Trenberth assumption is that all 4.pi.R^2 square metres of globe surface, will radiate at the same uniform rate at all times, Well if the global Temp is 288 K, that is less than 390 W/m^2.
Death valley in daytime radiates at a much higher rate, if the surface is actually 80-90 deg C.
“You show up for the most important single thing that ever happened on planet earth; and you haven’t even made up your damn mind what you should do.” [George]
LOL.
There’s a reason it’s called Death valley and Furnace creek. It’s been hot in the past as well. Notably, Marble Bar in NW Oz, set a world record of most consecutive days of 100 °F (40 °C) or above, during a period of 160 days from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924.
Now some, not Eli to be sure, appear to be wondering why he is commenting here. OTOH some people appear to be wondering if it was really, really hot in Death Valley during recent days. Gotta keep up.
Eli comments here because no one comments at his sorry and crappy blog except a handful of deluded RC/SKS sycophants.
Yet another chance to display my ignorance. (I suspect I do more often than I realize.)
Are satellites capable of confirming a pin-point surface temperature? Assuming their orbit has placed them above the station.)
I only recall them being mentioned in terms of atmospheric temperatures.
Well I finally learned why DV is so damned hot; from a PBS or some other network news hour; last night or maybe day before. I think it might have been Gwen eyeful giving the story.
I knew that it was a pretty big drop from the top of Mt Whitney, down to the floor of Death Valley, and some hang glider folk, have made the one way trip.
ell it seems that Death Valley is half way to hell. Gwen Eyefull put it at 280 miles below sea level. well that’s much deeper than the Dead Sea even.
S Death Valley was probably the jumping off point for the Algore expedition, that pegged earth’s inner Temperature at millions of degrees.
I’ve just spent time browsing @NOAA twitter line. They spend a great deal of time marketing instead of doing science. That led me to Dept of US @Interior and their TL is straight marketing. Hard to believe our tax dollars are being used in that manner.