Guest post by A. Scott
Even though we all know “weather is not “climate,” that rarely stops CAGW’s fiercest proponents, so we might as well have a little fun with it as well. This weekend is the 2013 Minnesota State Fishing Opener. And the joke around these parts is the most important equipment a fisherman needs this year is …. an ice auger.
Minnesota, like much of the country (as reported at WUWT here) is currently undergoing its own ‘little ice age’ with record late season snows (18″ in southeastern MN a week ago) and cold, and near record ice out dates on the State’s lakes. Lakes in the southern third of the State saw ice outs approaching new records and many lakes in the northern half of the state are still ice covered today.
“Lake Minnetonka” in the Mpls/St. Paul area finally saw ice out on May 2nd, which easily could have been extended to May 5th or 6th had the 18″ snowstorm moved about 40 miles to the West. The Freshwater Society history shows 134 years of ice out dates for Lake Minnetonka, going back to the mid 1800’s. Median ice out for Lake Minnetonka over the last 150+ years is April 14th. Only 3 years – 1856, 1857 and 1859 – saw later ice out dates than 2013.
The story is more fun as you travel to central and northern Minnesota. Outdoors writer and photographer Ron Hustvedt wote today in a story in the Star Tribune:
In 30-plus years of fishing the mythical Minnesota walleye opener, I can safely say I’ve never seen ice on my favorite lakes this late in the season. It’s been close a few years but never like this and, according to the record books, only a time or two like this in the last century.
The picture above isn’t just a random ice auger shot – its real, from earlier today. Here’s another … 
Please do not try this at home – these guys intimately knew the area, were well outfitted with life preservers and safety gear, and never ventured into areas more than a few feet deep.
In another story, from Thursday, the Star Tribune’s Doug Smith notes:
Some of Minnesota’s most popular fishing lakes are expected to be iced in on Saturday’s fishing opener — an occurrence not seen in perhaps 60 years. Ice reportedly is still 2 feet thick on some northern lakes, and … major lakes from Lake Mille Lacs north … still could be mostly ice-covered Saturday. “There will be substantial ice cover on the northern third of the state,’’ said Henry Drewes, Department of Natural Resources regional fisheries manager in Bemidji. “It will not be gone by Saturday. This is certainly the most significant late-season ice cover I have seen in my 25 years with the DNR.’’
Some great live pictures from MN lake webcams at www.mnlakecams.com
Oh, and it was snowing earlier today in Duluth, MN. On May 11th.
And here’s what you really came to see – a live, active “glacier” – a moving wall of ice – a ‘little ice age’- right here, right now, in Minnesota today 😉 …
Has anyone measured the temperature of the ice?
It may well be really really hot ice, dozens of degrees above the temperature of normal ice because that is what global warming does. It defies laws of physics.
So actually this PROVES that global warming is real and I will be applying for a government grant to study it.
I am tempted to apply the /sarc tag but that would only tip off the warmists and spoil the fun.
Expect to read about hot Minnesota ice on the BBC soon.
Living in and having grown up in the Canadian prairies I have always weighed heavily upon the number of frost free days as the measure for the type of spring, fall, and summer we have had. It’s the one that worries me the most, not the occasional misfortune we may experience with a severe hail storm or heavy rainfalls and windstorms. Yeah, those are just weather events, some are terrible in their destruction but, when it comes to knowing that the world has enough food to eat, when we loose those frost free days, that keeps me up at night. I wonder Anthony, is there a readily available record of the number of frost free days the northern hemisphere experienced over time? It would be a darn fine way to see a cooling/warming pattern I’d think.
1. Warmists will scoff at stories like this until they literally cannot.
2. “Denier” is not a nice word, for several reasons. One of them is that it has a funny way of boomeranging.
I guess we could say Spring is coming to Minnesota … at a glacial pace … 😉
Anyone for taking bets on when the first article blaming these late ice outs on global warming will first appear???
I recall a few sayings from my travels to Minnesota:
“There are only two seasons in Minnesota; Winter and Construction.”
“I sure hope summer comes on a weekend this year.”
“Minnesota has two seasons, winter and two weeks of hard sledding.” (or is that one from Winnipeg?)
🙂
I hadn’t seen that phenomenon before. The same person put up the “after-math” (sorry, but my guess is that she’s blond). See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pqo49arRlGw
Glacier seems like the wrong word. Ice tsunami seems better, though there’s no earthquake involved, just wind blowing old ice around.
Starting with 1976, in most years I have heard of record cold and
snowfalls somewhere, even often somewhere in USA, almost every
year.
In think this is mostly because localized or regional weather extremes
of century class, especially if qualified by time of year, are common –
especially in USA and nearby parts of Canada.
I remember a time in the early 1970’s when in early May it snowed in
northern/western parts of Philadelphia, especially where elevation was
around/over 200 feet. There was even a May snowstorm sometime in the
1800s when most of northwestern Philadelphia got 4 inches of snow in
early May.
Furthermore, I remember a newspaper blurb sometime in the 1970s for
Philadelphia going through its 1st-ever March in about a century with no
weather records being broken.
Of course you are correct Ric … but its much more fun to call it a “glacier” and twist the panties of certain types all in a knot … same reason to call it a ‘little ice age’ … 🙂
Come on, you’re still not getting it. Repeat again, after me: this is exactly what is expected under CAGW scenarios. This is exactly what is expected under CAGW scenarios. This is exactly what is expected under CAGW scenarios.
Remember that whenever any weather event or statistic is mentioned. It’s the only correct answer.
We had something similar happen near where I live in Michigan.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/another-ice-surge-sends-chunks-flying-into-homes/18409
Yes. Well I now see clearly why Minnesotans might fancy a little AGW. I doubt they are going to get it though.
Still look on the bright side. Before mechanical refrigeration the trade in ice was a major industry: for instance by the 1880s the UK was importing over a million tons [Imp] a year chiefly from Scandinavia and New England and all carried by sailing ship.
Surely here is an opportunity for a new Green Industry exporting the ice to save on refrigeration to hotter places. All it needs is a large grant from US Gov. After all think if the jobs in created in cutting the ice, moving it and carrying it in sailing ships. Not to mention the ice [store] houses needed for keeping the ice through the summer. Many of which are still to be seen in New England.
Ah well even Greens have their dreams.
But not me. I prefer refrigeration.
Kindest Regards
Huge wall of ice on Manitoba lake demolishes summer homes
”We are creating a prehistoric climate in which human societies will face huge and potentially catastrophic risks,” said Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham climate change institute at the London School of Economics and Political Science. ”Only by urgently reducing global emissions will we be able to bring carbon dioxide levels down and avoid the full consequences of turning back the climate clock.”
So says the SMH Australia.
This statement could be read that the prehistoric climate will return now CO2 is at 400ppm.
Perhaps in the light of this cold snap, he really means the usual state of glaciation./
But, but, but… Garrison Kieller said Minnesota doesn’t have winters anymore. Quick, somebody take him along on a fish’n trip.
Get the best guide in Minnesota to take him and any of his lefty buddies. Then when hopelessly lost with supplies running low, Garrison will whine, “I thought everyone claims you are the best guide in Minnesota.” Tell him, “I am, but now I think we’re somewhere in Manitoba.”
Then when he’s not looking r u n n o f t and leave him there.
Bruce Foutch says:
May 11, 2013 at 9:14 pm
I recall a few sayings from my travels to Minnesota:
“There are only two seasons in Minnesota; Winter and Construction.”
“I sure hope summer comes on a weekend this year.”
“Minnesota has two seasons, winter and two weeks of hard sledding.” (or is that one from Winnipeg?)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
No, Winnipeg has four distinct seasons:
1. Almost Winter
2. Winter
3. Still Winter
4. Road hockey
Again, just for balance, down here in Australia, we are experiencing continuing temperatures some 1.5C above the long term average for this time of year, as we head into winter.
And its glorious weather. Cool mornings and evenings, yet during the day is really nice, sunny, almost like a mild summer day, but not quite.
I apologise that we seem to have borrowed your warm temps for a while.
Any bets where Roy’s May temp will sit ? I’m still thinking marginally below April..
Ah come on that is all wrong. Global News in Vancouver BC interviewed some expert last week that the 2 weeks of record breaking weather they where having was from “climate change” It was on Global News so it must be right. sarc off.
Quote:
“Even though we all know “weather is not “climate,” that rarely stops CAGW’s fiercest proponents, so we might as well have a little fun with it as well.”
It appears A. Scott did not get the memo from the Climate Commission’s “Angry Summer” in Australia, where weather IS NOW climate:
“A few years ago, talking about weather and climate change in the same breath was a cardinal sin for scientists.
Now it has become impossible to have a conversation about the weather without discussing wider climate trends, according to researchers who prepared the Australian Climate Commission’s latest report.”
http://www.theage.com.au/national/climate-change-a-key-factor-in-extreme-weather-experts-say-20130303-2fefv.html
The ice out dates are really cool. So Apr 14 is the median? 2000 and 2012 are 2nd and 3rd earliest dates in the last two weeks of March; after 1990, only 6 out of 23 years are behind the median, 1993 1996 1997 2001 2002 and 2008; I didnt bother to figure the exact prob, but the chance of that happening by chance is way less thann one in 20.
But the freak, 2013, is evidence of an ice age?
So I am guessing that, in fair play, you are allowing the media hyping last summers record hot spell evidence of global warming, a pass? Cool.
nc,
If what you are experiencing is really a change in the climate, its in totally the opposite direction in what they have been proselytising for the last ‘n’ years.
If climate is changing then it is totally natural. Climate has, and always will, vary, and we have been on Earth for such a short time that we really have no idea what Mother Earth can bring forth.
We, in the current lifetime, have experience but a tiny fraction of what she can do.
After seeing this video I can understand why Elmer would prefer global warming.
I have to wonder if there was some local, who’d been around for decades, that warned about building in those places because of the ice incursions. It’s sort of like, ‘Don’t build in the flood plain because, well, you know.’
Surely someone knew of the phenomenon during the planning stage.
Dave
That pic is impressive, look at that massive pile of globalwarming those guys are walking on, plenty enough to make a globalwarming man out of. Almost even enough powdered globalwarming to go skiing on.
It will be interesting to hear the tall tales concocted by the warmists to explain global cooling.
Solar cycle 24 appears to be the lead into a Maunder minimum. The planet warms when the solar magnetic cycle is active and cools when the solar magnetic cycle slows down. There are cycles of warming and cooling in the paleoclimatic record that correlate to past periods of solar magnetic cycle changes.
IS THE COOLING WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT?
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Is_the_Cooling_Worse_than_Thought_-3_%285%29.pdf
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22006646
Cold weather: Winners and losers from the long winter
The UK has just experienced the coldest March since 1962, and England its fourth-coldest since records began in 1910, according to the Met Office. From 1-26 March the UK mean temperature was 2.5C – three degrees below the long-term average.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22050874
Britain ‘running out of wheat’ owing to bad weather
NFU president Peter Kendall said more than two million tonnes of wheat had been lost because of last year’s poor summer. Looking ahead to the 2013 harvest, he said farmers had managed to get only three-quarters of the planned wheat planted this year, so the UK was already 25% down on potential production.
“I’ve been walking crops yesterday on the farm in Bedfordshire and they look pretty thin. We would normally say you should hide a hare in a crop of wheat in March. You’d struggle to cover a mouse in some of mine. … ….”If we got three-quarters of the area planted, and the same yield as last year, we could be looking at a crop of only 11m tonnes of wheat when we actually need 14.5m tonnes of wheat for our own domestic use here in the UK,” he said.
‘Written off 2013’
Andrew Watts, a wheat farmer and the NFU combinable crops board chairman, said farmers had been hoping for a kind autumn after a poor harvest in 2012, but this had not happened.
“It seems many farmers have written 2013 off and are trying to do what they can with the crops in the ground. Everyone is focusing on 2014 and making sure the land is in a good condition to get good crops then.
“This is what producing food is all about – the weather.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130422-711874.html
Late Spring Fuels Uncertainty on Statistics Canada Planting Estimates
At the above site, the following graph, a comparison of the past solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 to the new cycle 24 is provided. That graph is update every six months or so.
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
This is a graph, that is also located at the above site, that compares solar cycle 24 to the weakest solar magnetic cycles in the last 150 years.
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png
Well, this ice thing is perfectly consistent with cAGW theory, is it not?
For each theory, according to logic, can be reduced to a (usually complex) set of propositions. If it is consistent with any state of affairs, the result happens to be pretty simple: Av~A, were A stands for a proposition of your choice.
Now, who can deny cAGW theory is simple, elegant & self explanatory?
Andg55, I am always intrigued with ‘the earth’s climate has always changed so so what we are experiencing is normal.’ argument.
First thing to remember is that previous climates have not always been capable of supporting humans, at least not 7 billion of them. Modern humans have only been around for 100,000 years or so and haven’t experienced many of the climates of the past.
The second thing is that climate changes for reason. It just doesn’t decide it’s time for a change and then changes. Something has to force it to change. Wobbles in the axis of spin, or the shape of the path taken around the sun have and effect as does volcanic activity etc.
The question I would ask are: what is causing the current change in climate and will the change be conductive to supporting 7 (or 9) billion people?
BTW, we are experiencing another prolonged dry period here in SE Oz. We are also enjoying the warm autumn weather, but I really wish it would rain! I fear another drought coming on.
Berényi Péter says: Now, who can deny cAGW theory is simple, elegant & self explanatory?
There is the Sherrington Prediction to come. This states that global warming will increase the number of time periods in which absolutely nothing of any interest happens. This is a necessary mathematical consequence of the CAGW postulate that we will see increased numbers of extreme events, after you apply an averaging factor.
You just know your satire has hit its mark when the resident troll Traffy gets his panties in a bunch about it.
Just for point of interest, here’s my lake in Calgary (Alberta)… thaw dates only, date is first completely ice-free day:
1996 – April 24
1997 – April 23
1998 – April 8
1999 – April 19
2000 – April 20
2001 – April 30
2002 – April 14
2003 – April 6
2004 – April 7
2005 – April 13
2006 – April 13
2007 – April 18
2008 – April 19
2009 – April 30
2010 – April 3
2011 – May 7
2012 – April 12
2013 – April 26
Does anyone else NOT see a trend?
No Traffy, its all just evidence of NATURAL climate variation.
And this puts a MAJOR hole in cagw fart.
If it was CO2 warming, then it would keep warming,
but it ISN’T warming, and it HASN’T for something like 17 years +
(darn, did it again…..I meant…… FARCE)
Ttrafamadore says:
May 12, 2013 at 12:10 am
“So I am guessing that, in fair play, you are allowing the media hyping last summers record hot spell evidence of global warming, a pass? Cool.”
Are you saying that last summers record hot spell in a tiny area of the surface of the planet is NOT a sign of impending doom? Please check in at your local warmist re-education centre for an examination of your ideological alignment before grabbing the next grant.
Andyg55, the earth has warmed up. The satellites tell us there is an energy imbalance on earth with more heat coming in than going out. Your 17 year claim only refers to surface temperature. The oceans are heating up and are absorbing 97% of the heat energy.
There have been apparent plateaus in the surface temperature in the last 150 years, but it inevitably trends up again. It has to as one of the problems with continual accumulating heat, eventually the temperature rises.
Meanwhile here in New Hampshire, “ice-out” on the big lake (Lake Winnipesaukee) is defined as when the cruise ship MS Mount Washington would, in theory, be able to reach all of its ports of call. Records go back to 1887, and back then, of course, the determination was made from shore. Nowadays, one man (Dave Emerson) makes the determination by doing a fly-over 2-3 times a day. The median date appears to be April 20th, and this year it occurred on April 17th, matching the date in 1996. The earliest date was last year, on March 23rd, with the latest being May 12th in 1888. With so many variables affecting both ice formation, as well as melting, my guess would be that no trend of less than a century would be meaningful. Overall, the trend has been for earlier ice-outs over the past century, which would suggest warming. By happy coincidence, we skeptics don’t claim that it hasn’t warmed up some, just that it takes a special type of goggles to see the human signal in that warming. It’s just that we prefer to look at things with a clear, unobstructed view. Different strokes, I guess.
We had about an hour of snow yesterday, 1100 – 1200 11 May 2013 N45.38287 W86.89728
Not enough, or cold enough, to persist, but quite a contrast to all the spring blossoms.
Moe, do you actually believe that? Really? 97%? Into the oceans, you say…
Deep oceans, I assume. So, can you come up with a credible mechanism for “heat” to be bypassing the atmosphere and going directly into the oceans? After all, the oceans liberate heat fairly easily into the atmosphere, whereas it is difficult for the atmosphere to heat the oceans.
Do you know what portion of the oceans the sun (or other direct radiative energy) actually affects? As in, how deep radiative energy heats (or transfers energy into) saltwater?
Sadly for Trenberth et. al, it isn’t very deep. Oh, and we don’t allow “magic” to enter into the equation.
Old locals warning, “Don’t build there.” This applies to tornadoes and cheap land speculation. The reason there are no houses there and the land is cheap is the local empiric knowledge of tornado touch-downs.
I just looked up to see more snow falling very lightly.
High-res Land temp anomaly map from April 2013 (Modis satellites) shows the Canadian Prairies to Minnesota as a very impressive cold-spot. Up to -10C below normal (which would be the coldest April for this region on record tieing one other bad April in 1907).
The rest of the planet looked pretty normal actually.
http://s15.postimg.org/seyxnapiz/Land_Temps_Apr2013.jpg
UAH lower troposphere was 0.103C for the month but was declining throughout the month so it ended up below 0.0C at the end of the month (in all hemispheres / regions). Daily UAH temps 2012 and 2013.
http://s11.postimg.org/vtk52y5g3/UAH_Daily_Apr2013.png
Temps are now at their coldest since February 2012 and really, they are no different than they were in the 1980 UAH record, before Volcanoes and Super-El Ninos came along and distorted the temp trend record.
Moe says:
May 12, 2013 at 4:04 am
The oceans are heating up and are absorbing 97% of the heat energy.
So THAT’s where the heat is going. Interesting! So, sometimes it heats up the land, and other times, the oceans. That is fascinating! Please do tell us more.
Moe says:
May 12, 2013 at 4:04 am
“The oceans are heating up and are absorbing 97% of the heat energy.”
That’s interesting. 97% you say (now where have I seen that figure before?). And all without the Argo buoys picking up anything.
You got any actual evidence to back that rather dubious claim up? Which data set is showing rapid warming, and how do you know it represents 97% of (what) heat energy?
Moe forgot the /sarc lol
I HATE COLD !!!!
I cannot imagine under any circumstance that I would voluntarily sit in an ice filled lake !!
Hope they caught something .
Ok I see a lot of people cannot see that the oceans are possible of gaining heat, fair enough, but ask yourself where is the heat going?
Following a barrage of stories about our imminent doom following Mauna Loa’s recordation of 400 ppm of CO2 and a host of stories damning the evil fossil fuel companies, even NPR ( National Propaganda Radio ) carried a story on Minnesota’s still-frozen lakes:
http://www.npr.org/2013/05/11/183029107/frozen-lakes-cut-into-minnesota-fishing-tradition
“an occurrence not seen in perhaps 60 years.”
Funny how that number 60 keeps popping up.
OK Moe–if, and its a big if, there is heat going somewhere, here on this site, we’d like to see the assertion backed up by some actual facts. So the questions are: What heat, how much and where does it come from; and what is the evidence to suggest that it is going to the oceans? We try not to engage in idle unsupported speculation here, especially not of the “It must be going here, because I can’t imagine where else it would be going” sort. That is the worst–unsupported speculation combined with a poor imagination.
PS record low in Kansas City this am. Frost on the Mother’s Day lawn. Happy Mother’s Day to all Moms too.
RE: a jones says:
May 11, 2013 at 10:10 pm
Regarding sailing ice south; my great-great-grandfather’s younger brother sailed a schooner south with New England ice, and traded it for rum in Jamaica. No government grant was involved. Profits were pretty good. No expense for fuel.
Oh, I forgot to mention. He went one trip too many. Vanished. Family lore suggests he got mixed up with a hurricane.
I guess it goes to show you, wind power had its problems, even back then. However they had no “alternative energy.” All they had was guts.
The problem is that Australia is so big that that it has several different climates all at once. So AndyG55 can have nice pleasant weather, slightly warmer than normal, while Moe complains that he wants a bit of rain, while I, a 1000 miles north, probably, would rather have more than an hour’s sunshine every three days. My brother, over 1000 miles to the south, was complaining about the days – weeks – on end with 40 degree heat and no rain, here it has been about 28 at best and a bit more rain than I want. Difficult to mow the lawn as when I have the time and feel like it (not often) it is pouring with rain or gently drizzling (often). When it is nice and sunny and the lawn is dry, I have something more important to do.
And I remember one Boxing Day when it snowed at Thredbo – admittedly at a ski resort – but not what you would expect in mid summer. Frock shops that only had summer clothing, if open, suddenly had to dig around and find all the woollies, fur lined boots and thermal underwear for all the tourists who had arrived for a nice warm summer holiday in the Alps.
But I do love that glacier!
Starzmom, try googling ‘energy embalance of the earth.’
First item the search comes back with:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page3.php
Explains what is happening..
Dudley, good points. It shows we are experiencing unusual weather events, some people get extra rain, others less, some are experiencing hotter weather, some others get unseasonably cold weather. The weather records are falling over like ten pins, with hot records out numbering cold records at about three to one.
Personally, I not looking forward to when the surface temperature starts its upward trend again. My water bill came in the other day and I am using three times the amount of water than I did only a couple of years ago.
About heating, I like to keep Specific Heat Capacities in mind, of particularly water (as a submarine reactor plant engineer/technician) and air (being a human living half way to the North Pole). Depending on the specific quantity, water has four (mass) to a thousand times (volume) the heat capacity of air.
Remember that global warming is magical. It can warm the deepest oceans where we can not measure it, and yet not warm the atmosphere or the tops of the oceans. The heat is not transported, it is simply displaced magically. How does the heat get down there if not through transport? Why, only a true believer would fall for that one. Its slight of hand folks, remember that the heat could be hiding in the bowels of the Earth for all we know. Perhaps it is hiding in some arctic village as well where the heat magically skipped every other single place on the globe but caused this one location to warm up through magic. But forget about the mechanism for how the heat moves magically, we must all believe in the arrogance and the infallibality of these scientists otherwise we are the deniers. No, global warming is not a religion at all.
Most of that was sarcastic just in case.
Here in NE oregon we’ve had a warm, dry spring. Summer like temps little rain. I’m about to go
to Flight/ground school for Airtanker training after a 10 year absence . Trained DC-7 crew do not grow on trees. Of course the local warmists are wringing their hands over the warmth,
Worried about fossil fuels etc. If it wasn’t for Fossil fuels we couldn’t fight the fires…..
Lost an Ancestor to a prairie fire in NW Kansas..AH the “good old days..”
We Minnesotans actually like us some winter, and tend to scoff at those who can’t handle a little snow and ice. But this year when the calendar turned to May and we were still covered in the stuff, folks started getting a little surly. And messing with the “fishing opener” is considered High Treason by many in this state.
Most of the ice-outs in the state this year are anywhere from “latest in 50 years” to actual record setters going back deep into the second 1/2 of the 1800s.
Moe,
Quite enjoyed that NASA link. Some excellent illustrations.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page6.php
What strikes me as strange about the explanation is that so little emphasis is given to water vapor. It seems to be implying that the energy outflows from water are relatively fixed e.g. evaporation is characterized as 25% of the energy outflow. But if increased warmth and energy inflow results in increased evaporation & thunderstorms & convection near the equator, and that speeds up the hydrological cycle transporting increased latent heat to the top of the atmosphere, you have a built in negative feedback loop.
Increased evaporation and convection could offset most of the heat trapping effects of CO2 on our 3/4 water planet. Do you have a good source for why evaporation & convection are considered fixed energy outflows? I don’t see a lot of heat getting trapped in the oceans. Maybe it’s just being convected away?
As a result, air from up there is going to cause a damaging frost here in west MD tomorrow morning.
Thats soft ice, dirty ice.. Its thinner and nowhere near as moral as the ice we used to know..
Im surprised you people are not up to speed on the emotional state of ice..
Moe says:
May 12, 2013 at 4:04 am
“The oceans are heating up and are absorbing 97% of the heat energy.”
>>>>>>>>>>>
I just hit me that of this were true ( doubt it is ) the warmists would be destroying their own meme. If only 3% goes into the atmosphere, then sensitivity in the atmosphere is about 1/33 of what the models predicted. And sensitivity in the oceans would be even LESS. The oceans have a mass 1400 TIMES that of the atmosphere, and hence it would take a LOT more energy to arrive at a measurable temperature change, let alone a catastrophic one.
In the meantime Moe says he is using three times the water he was two years ago. His assumption that this is somehow tied to global warming suggests that Larry, Curly and Joe are hanging out with him.
Moe says:
May 12, 2013 at 5:19 am
Ok I see a lot of people cannot see that the oceans are possible of gaining heat, fair enough, but ask yourself where is the heat going?
==================================
You seem to be making the assumption that there exists some “heat” due to a radiative imbalance, and not having found this (Trenberths) missing heat, conclude it must have gone somewhere.
Ok, but the radiative imbalance, if it exists at all, is only around 0.8 watts per metre squared, based on Hansens calculations. Next point, the temperature of a radiating body is proportional to the 4th root of the energy that it radiates with. So we are looking for temperature anomalies based on the 4th root of an increase in energy of 0.8 w/m2.
You ask where this additional heat is? It simply cannot be detected because it is too small to separate out from the noise in the data.
That satellite image is fascinating. The Upper Peninsula of Michigan, with its subsidiary peninsula, The Keweenaw, shows prominent white bands running parallel to the shore of Lake Superior. These white areas are forested highlands (ridge-like bands of half-billion year old basaltic lavas in which great deposits of native (pure) copper were discovered and mined). This is the eastern edge of the Mid-Continent Gravity High, a huge, ultimately failed, continental rift system that formed a triple junction in the Lake Superior Basin, where more than 50,000 feet of lavas and sediments were deposited.
These highlands form a lake effect snow belt that collects up to around 400 inches of snow a year. That’s why they show up. There’s still a good deal of snow lying there. I can see it out my window.
The ice surge video really impressed me. I wonder if such a phenomena has any relevance to the quick-frozen mammoths that are found in Siberia.
But did you catch any fish?
Moe says: May 12, 2013 at 4:04 am
“….The satellites tell us there is an energy imbalance on earth with more heat coming in than going out. ..”
That would be an open and shut case Moe, but unfortunately, they are not quite up to that level of precision …. an ‘objective constrainment algorithm’ based on theory and modeling is required to ‘slightly’ adjust the measure to make it match (and slightly is an understatement):
Loeb etal 2009 ‘Toward Optimal Closure of the Earth’s Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Budget’ J. Climate, 22, 748–766
The 5-yr global mean CERES net flux from the standard CERES product is 6.5 Wm2, much larger than the best estimate of 0.85 Wm2 based on observed ocean heat content data and model simulations…
….An objective constrainment algorithm is used to adjust SW and LW TOA fluxes within their range of uncertainty to remove the inconsistency between average global net TOA flux and heat storage in the earth– atmosphere system.
Toward Optimal Closure of the Earth’s Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Budget
Loeb et al 2008
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008JCLI2637.1
That’s it!
That’s where all the extra heat is going ….. into the water first, and then into the air!
When we thought it was going into the air first, and then into the water, we were all wet!
(Or were we? Whatever.)
Craig says:
May 12, 2013 at 9:15 am
But did you catch any fish?
Finally, someone gets to one of the important things in life!
Ice, snow, sun, rain, lakes, wind; this s— just happens.
Catching fish is important.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And Moe, lay off the water; switch to beer (more filling, use less); make more sense.
Matthew W says:
May 12, 2013 at 5:17 am
I HATE COLD !!!!
I cannot imagine under any circumstance that I would voluntarily sit in an ice filled lake !!
Hope they caught something .
==========
If they weren’t hardy Minnesotans, I’d guess it’d be a choice between pneumonia and Trench Foot!
Auto
And from further north look at this:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/05/11/owners-pick-through-remains-of-manitoba-homes-crushed-by-9-metre-high-wall-of-ice/
Are Minnosotans For Global Warming (MFGW) going to bring out another video-song about this? “Hide the Glacier”, or something…..
.
check the Nenana Ice Classic, also very late this year.
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
Moe says:
May 12, 2013 at 5:19 am
Ok I see a lot of people cannot see that the oceans are possible of gaining heat, fair enough, but ask yourself where is the heat going?
——————————————————————
Moe,
You misunderstand. You asserted that the oceans are warming. Some asked you to produce a data set that showed that. No one said that “the oceans cannot gain heat”, just asked you produce the evidence necessary to make that claim.
TomR
may be she is a blond but she is the only one to capture the phenomenon 3:)
I suggest you re-read my first sentence … while you un-knot your panties.
🙂
@ Moe “The question I would ask are: what is causing the current change in climate and will the change be conductive to supporting 7 (or 9) billion people?”
The sun caused most of the very slight warming during the second part of last century. Human effect were noticable on thermometers in enlarged urban areas.
Because the Sun seems to be having a snooze, we will now be heading into a cooler period, and no, that will not be conducive to supporting the world population. Colder is NOT good.
America and other countries need to stop the biofuel madness and start stockpiling grain again, countries need to start beefing up their electricity systems by getting rid of wind and solar generation and building new clean coal or gas fired stations.
Unfortunately, CO2 only help plant life flourish with slight warming, not cooling.
Andyg55, there have been three solar cycles in the last 30 years or so, I am interested in your ‘Sunnis taking a snooze’ theory. Could you direct me to it.
Your second point about siting thermometers in urban areas, has 1. Been shown to be incorrect, and 2. Been made mute by satellite data.
So you are expecting a cooler world. At what point will you change your mind that there is something going on with the climate. I mean having 10 hottest years in 150 years happening in the last 11 years, should shock most people into thinking it is NOT getting cooler.
Having been involved in producing food, the ‘co2 as a plant food’ argument annoys me. It is usually spouted by people that have never grown food. People who grow food, know, benign weather and water are critical in being successful.
We are in agreement about growing crops for bio fuel. That was introduced to support grain farmers. The energy used in plowing fertilising, harvesting, transporting, distilling etc in converting grain to ethanol is never recovered in the fuel you produce.
Markx, thanks for the reference. From what I can read, it addresses the uncertainty with calibration rather than conclusion that the earth is heating up. They are saying (or as far as I can read), the heat is still accumulating on the earth, but there is some contention about how much it is accumulating. Please advise if I had read this incorrectly.
@Lew Skannen –
Well, you do know that the alarmies believe water freezes into ice when you heat it, and 2 + 2 = 5, etc.
Moe, try telling the folks in England and Germany (thousands of deaths from hypothermia, not overheating) that it’s getting warmer.
Your claim that 10 of the last 11 years were the hottest of the last 150 is so obviously false and so totally contradicted by solid empirical data as to be ludicrous. Even the big alarmies like Hansen and Jones and the IPCC are having to admit that there has been no warming for 17 years and are having to abandon their attrempts to cover up previous warm periods, warmer than today.
You’re the one who needs to get real about climate, Moe.
“2. Been made mute by satellite data.”
Which shows NO WARMING for the last 17 years !!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/07/solar-cycle-update-suns-magnetic-activity-still-in-a-slump/#comments
1. Been shown to be incorrect,
no it hasn’t.
Chad,
‘NASA scientists say 2012 was the ninth warmest of any year since 1880, continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures. With the exception of 1998, the nine warmest years in the 132-year record all have occurred since 2000, with 2010 and 2005 ranking as the hottest years on record.’
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-temps.html
Where is your evidence to show it is wrong?
And I can also cherry pick data Chad. I agree people are experiencing exceptionally and unseasonal COLD weather, while others are experiencing exception and unseasonal HOT and dry weather. But be fair, the hot records that are being broken out number the ocld records by a factor of 3 to one. Look at the big picture.
AndyG55, My point was that the problem with siting thermometers was made mute (actually I think that should be moot) by satelitte data.
I don’t know why you are introducing the surface temperature with the siting of the thermometers. It is a different issue.
On another not, do you know anything about statistics? Would care to calculate if you statement no warming in 17 years is statistically significant?
And as I said, the earth is accumulating heat, and most of that is going into water (at the moment).
Look at any graph showing the surface temperatures for the last 150 years, you will see periods of time where it appears to level off, then off it goes trending up again. Never does it get colder after an apparent plateau. Never ever, and it will not while we keep throwing extra blankets around the earth in the form of extra C02.
Still waiting on your evidence for ‘the son taking a snooze’ theory. I presume you just didn’t make it up and can point to some research.
TomR,Worc,MA
You can start here.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/07/us-climate-oceans-idUSBRE93608420130407
I thought that was normal for Minnesota.
Frost warnings all the way down to TN and NC tonight….
Moe says:
May 12, 2013 at 4:11 pm
Markx, thanks for the reference. From what I can read, it addresses the uncertainty with calibration rather than conclusion that the earth is heating up. They are saying (or as far as I can read), the heat is still accumulating on the earth, but there is some contention about how much it is accumulating. Please advise if I had read this incorrectly.
Correct Moe, the satellite tells us the imbalance over that period was 6.5Wm2 when theory and modeling tells us it should have been 0.85 Wm2 – ie, the measure is 7.65 times the theoretical value. And yes, I think there are few questions that we are warming, the questions relate to degree and causes, and the extent that humans are responsible.
The satellite measure has been adjusted to match the theoretical value, and then the satellite measure is used as proof to support the theoretical value, a circular ‘proof’.
Further, if you also take into account the tenuous credibility of the ocean heat increment measurements, the proofs become ever more circular:
1. How good was the global coverage in 1955, and onward through to 2003 when full Argo float deployment was made?
2. Is there an issue with splicing together results from at least 4 or 5 different measurement methods? (rope and bucket, then reversing thermometers, ship cooling intake water, then XPTs, and now Argo floats).
3. There are 4 or 5 different types of Argo floats, all with their own sensing/programming quirks, and significant data adjustment is required to cope with this.
4. The main issue requiring adjustment is that pressure sensor errors can result in depth recording errors, and a drift of only 5 meters in depth measures could account for all the energy accumulation thus far measured by the Argo system.
5. Statistically speaking, repeated measurements of the same parameter by the same inaccurate tool can be mathematically resolved to provide a very high precision measure. But, are repeated measurements at different times, depths, positions of the ocean by thousands of instruments ever a repeated measure of the same thing?
Theoretical data ‘proven’ by satellite data after satellite data is adjusted to match theoretical data, then both can be used to match ocean data, where there is still much debate about ‘missing heat’?
Loeb et al 2008
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008JCLI2637.1
Moe,
You make a lot of assertions, but you provide no scientific evidence to support your assertions. For example, you say:
“Never does it get colder after an apparent plateau. Never ever, and it will not while we keep throwing extra blankets around the earth in the form of extra C02.”
See here. Now explain to us again how CO2 is causing global warming. Because I just don’t see it.
You are free to believe that ‘extra blankets of CO2’ cause global warming. Just as the Jehovah’s Witnesses are free to believe in the Rapture. But your belief is no more scientific than the Jehovah’s Witnesses religion is. Your unscientific belief is refuted by real world observations.
[Also, please, do not link to the credibilty-challenged Reuters site, which says: “Warmth is spreading to ever deeper ocean levels, he said, adding that pauses in surface warming could last 15-20 years.” That directly violates the 2nd Law; heat rises, it does not ‘spread ever deeper’.]
Moe says:
May 12, 2013 at 4:11 pm
Markx, thanks for the reference. From what I can read, it addresses the uncertainty with calibration rather than conclusion that the earth is heating up. They are saying (or as far as I can read), the heat is still accumulating on the earth, but there is some contention about how much it is accumulating. Please advise if I had read this incorrectly.
Hi Moe, a useful addition to my reply above.
Trenberth comment of Ocean heat content Jan 2012:
From http://judithcurry.com/2012/01/24/missing-heat-isnt-missing-after-all/
and http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2012/01/trenberth-response-to-todays-loeb-et-al.html
Kevin Trenberth responds at Quark Soup. Concluding paragraph:
So while their conclusions may be valid: yes there is no evidence of a discrepancy, given their uncertainties, and yes there is no “statistically significant” decline in OHC rates of change, but the uncertainties are so large that neither dataset is useful to know what is really going on, and that is the key point. The discrepancies among OHC data sets remain huge. We MUST do better. So the key point in their title is “within uncertainty”. It should add: “but the uncertainty is too large.”
Minnesota: It is like watching the Ice Age Cartoon in REAL LIFE!!! Check it out! -Paul
Amateur video captures a wave of ice blanketing backyards and threatening houses in the Mille Lacs Lake area of Minnesota. (May 12) http://youtu.be/7rxqz-_feBQ
Moe;
Look at any graph showing the surface temperatures for the last 150 years, you will see periods of time where it appears to level off, then off it goes trending up again. Never does it get colder after an apparent plateau.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Look at any graph of temps since the Little Ice Age about 400 years ago. You’ll see pretty much the exact same thing. What you won’t see is any acceleration despite exponential increases in co2 in the last few decades.
Moe;
Never ever, and it will not while we keep throwing extra blankets around the earth in the form of extra C02.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
Moe, the effective black body temperature of earth is exactly the same before CO2 doubles as it is afterward. Greenhouse theory requires a change in the temperature gradient from earth surface to top of atmosphere, but no change in the average itself. If you’re going to be a warmist, at least learn the warmist physics first.
As for the balance of your argument, I invite you to look at NOAA data that should put things in better perspective for you:
http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Images/ice-HS/noaa_gisp2_icecore_anim_adj.gif
Moe says:
May 12, 2013 at 4:07 pm
I assume “sunnis” is a spell-“correction” of a typo that should have been “sun is”.
From my Guide to WUWT:
2008 Jun 2: Livingston and Penn paper: “Sunspots may vanish by 2015” – http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/06/02/livingston-and-penn-paper-sunspots-may-vanish-by-2015/ .
By my reckoning, this is the most fascinating material I’ve read on WUWT. Now in mid-2010 the data is pretty much tracking predictions some four years after the paper was written.
Latest update 2010 Sep 18: Sun’s magnetics remain in a funk: sunspots may be on their way out – http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/18/suns-magnetics-remain-in-a-funk-sunspots-may-be-on-their-way-out/ . This reports on a new paper Long-term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields. An updated estimate of the majority of sunspots becoming invisible is 2021-2022, but I and others think some of the delay is due to some events already being invisible and hence aren’t included in the average, and that leads to an apparently slower decline.
Snow over the Highlands of Scotland fell at the weekanend, and more is forecast for today and tomorrow. Even in Wales, snow is forecast for tomorrow.
When I say Highlands, the UK is not particularly mountainess, so maybe around 2500 to just over 4000ft. So this is snow falling at relatively low altitude. In Scotland, at this time of year, it is unusual but not of course unique. I can’t recall snow falling mid May in Wales, but no doubt it has before.
But it is an indication of how a cold winter this year has lingered over Europe. Where I am in Spain, I would guess that temperatures are about 6 or so weeks behind the norm. I can usually go swimming in my pool at Easter (end of March/early April) but this year it is too cold. I have not yet been swimming and rather doubt that I shall be able to do so before the end of the month.
Yes, but it is only a mild cold.
@ Ric Werme…I see a chance for the next minimum to come in around 2016/17 or 2017/18. I lean towards the first choice as more likely. The reason for this thought is I believe that the Pacific Northwest flood cycle is going to return to its 9 year pattern. This is where my interest in CC really took off about 4 years ago and is most likely the main reason why I was drawn in. Four years ago someone linked me to a solar min/max chart in comments, might have been Space Guy. It took me about ten seconds of looking at it before I realized that the solar minimums correlated with the 9 year flood cycle of the Pacific Northwest. I made a comment at the time {on Newsvine} and it drew some interest. Then one comment asked “and what does that mean?”. I had to state that I didn’t know, but that I would think about it. Now after these intervening year, it seems that pieces of this puzzle are becoming clearer. I took a look at older weather records to fill in the flood years that I did not know for sure. When I got into the early 1920s, the next 9 year flood was not there. It seemed to be 12 years away and there seemed to be another around 12 years before that. That was the best I could do in looking back to find the flood years. Then I noticed that after the 1973/74 solar minimum and weak flood year that the next flood cycle had jumped around 12 years. The next 12 year flood was in the winter of 1996/97. It was a semi-biblical rain event in Northern California. Followed, of course, by the mighty El Nino of 1997/98. Then there is a 3rd 12 year weak flood in 2007/08. The next one is going to switch back to the 9 year pattern…1973/74, 1864/65, 1955/56, 1946/47, 1937/38, 1928/29. 64/65 and 55/56 were very heavy floods. Anyway, this means that the next flood and the next minimum is likely to fall in 2016/17. The flood always hits close to the bottom or at the bottom of the solar minimum. This could mean that it hits as the min approachs, or after the min swings back to the max. I was puzzled over how the 9 year cycle could hold its place in an 11 + year solar cycle, but then the jump to 12 years {approx} on the flood explained why. It goes 3 cycles and that maintains the solar minimum flood cycle to correspond to the bottom of the minimum.
In the list of flood years the second example should read 1964/65 and not 1864/65. A minor mistake.
Moe very obviously suffers from a brain-blinding case of “Sketpical-Science” misinformation !
By inhabiting SkS he receives about 0.01 % of the actual facts.
whoops, I meant 0.04%…
“. . . . cutting the ice, moving it and carrying it in sailing ships. Not to mention the ice [store] houses needed for keeping the ice through the summer.”
Caused Global Warming dontchaknow? . . . Ice storage relied on sawdust, sawdust (as well as sailing ships) came from trees, lack of trees kicked off CO2 explosion, CO2 caused warming, requiring refrigeration, requiring industrialization, requiring Coal, Oil, requiring ritual, lemming-like warming-mitigating suicide of Human Race. Reversal of warming due to Human extinction allows Earth to cool and nearly all life on the Planet to be extinguished during subsequent Ice Age. . . . . ‘Gaia’ saved!
@ Ric “and hence aren’t included in the average, and that leads to an apparently slower decline.”
plus of course the massive interia of the water in the oceans. Hard to say, but I suspect the Sun’s sleepiness will kick in over the next couple of years. Time will tell.
I hope those countries in the colder northern hemisphere are awake to the issue. Germany certainly is, LOTS of new coal fired power stations.
UK on the other hand is in the grip of the moronic CAGW agenda. They will suffer badly in the next few years.
And depending how cold it gets, those countries with lots of hydro could also have major issues.
[Snip. “Moe” is a serial troll who posts under the screen names:
Moe
Monemeith
Loch
Lowerup
Lowerup2
Pleeeeease
Thought4TheDay
BillMeLater
Overthetop
Superiorintellect
Harddoneby
LetsBeReasonable
myfirstattemptatblogs
*GeorgeSoros
Reading some of “Moe’s” past comments under different names, he is arguing both sides of the issue — typical troll behavior. Therefore, “Moe” will understand why he is being snipped. ~ mod.]
REPLY: 14, if you count George Soros, which you missed. Permanent spam bin for this one – Anthony
[snip.]
@ Moe, here is an excellent video done by Bob Tisdale, which should put to rest the rather obvious misconceptions you have about the lack of further warming the past 16+ years, in response to the SkS “refutations” of the idea:
Remember, the starting date for the period “the past 16+ years” is today, working backwards. I know this is a difficult concept for those who have drunk the Koolaid, but you can do it if you try. We have faith in you.
Moe;
DB Boehm, why do people pick 1998 as the starting point to illustrate a point. I challenge you to pick any other starting point and see what you get.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
LOL. Your assertion was that (and I quote):
Look at any graph showing the surface temperatures for the last 150 years, you will see periods of time where it appears to level off, then off it goes trending up again. Never does it get colder after an apparent plateau.
So, you are being shown a time period where not only is what you say wrong, but it also coincides with the highest levels of co2 ever, and you immediately complain about cherry picking. Your focus on the last 150 years in order to ignore the 250 years of the exact same pattern of warming is what? Science? Did you bother to look at the NOAA data I linked for you so that you can see just how small a blip recent warming is in the context of earth’s natural variability? Or do you only look at the data which supports your position?
The fact of the matter is that the warmist position has been that co2 increases would dominate natural variability. Now that we’ve had 16+ years of cooling trend during the highest levels of CO2 “ever”, the argument is suddenly that the cooling since 1998 is natural variability and 1998 is just cherry picking. So CO2 doesn’t dominate natural variability after all? Pick a position and stick with it!
It will be informative to follow reports from Alaska and Canada about the extent of snow fields that do not melt this summer. Year-round snow fields is an early symptom of an emerging ice age.
Moe says: May 13, 2013 at 5:36 am
[Snip. “Moe” is a serial troll who posts under the screen names:
Looks like he got moed down….
@ markx…voted up hehehehe
Record setting heat in Minnesota today. Can’t wait for the blog post about it.
sceptical,
Must mean the sea ice is at record levels, since we now know that lack of sea ice causes it to be cold.
For Fishing we should prefect tools and equipment. I have gone in deep sea fishing key west florida i mat many people there who where having different kind of fishing equipment and they were experienced also.