The Week That Was: 2013-03-09 (March 9, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week: “…scientists are neither saints nor devils but human beings sharing the common weaknesses of our species.” Freeman Dyson The Scientist as Rebel, p. 15] [H/t Donna Laframboise]
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Number of the Week: $40 Billion US
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Changing Sun: In its Fourth Assessment Report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC – AR4) dismissed the sun as a major influence on the earth’s climate change. AR4 stated that changes in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI – sunshine) are not sufficient to explain the changing climate. The IPCC ignored other forms of energy from the sun, such as solar wind and magnetism.
This week, several articles appeared discussing a just published paper by Willie Soon and David Legates: Solar irradiance modulation of Equator-to-Pole (Arctic) temperature gradients: Empirical evidence for climate variation on multi-decadal timescales. The paper asserts that changes in TSI influence changes in the temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole.
An article in Quadrant, explains that the best way to reveal the influence of the sun on temperatures is to use daytime-highs rather than day-night averages. This goes to one of criticism of the models by five-time IPCC Expert Reviewer Vincent Gray (of NZ) that the sun does not shine at every location 24 hours a day as depicted in the models. Please see links under: Science: Is the Sun Rising?
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US Assessment Report: In January, the US National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) published an alarmist draft report on global warming / climate change consequences for the US. Roger Pielke Jr. promptly slammed the report for some of its factual errors, noting that with so much money spent, and so many authors involved, how could the draft report be so wrong?
On his web site, Bob Tisdale presents a more detailed critique. In closing, he suggests the Committee abandon alarmism because, with the internet, false claims are long remembered and evidence can be found to refute them. It remains to be seen if the bureaucratic who wrote the report will understand.
These government efforts are being supervised by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which has as a motto “Thirteen Agencies, One Vision: Empower the Nation with Global Change Science.” The factually challenged reports reflect on all the agencies involved. Please see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/.
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IPCC Run-Up: Just in time to be included in the up-coming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), researchers from Oregon State University published a report in Science magazine that estimates that temperatures of the last decade were hotter than 75% of the time since the end of the last ice age (start of the Holocene about 11,500 years ago). According to an article in the Oregonian: “The rate of change in the last 100 years is very much unprecedented compared to anything we’ve seen in the last 10,000 years,” said Marcott, the study’s lead author.” “If climate models used by the IPCC, temperatures in 2100 would exceed previous Holocene temperatures in ‘all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios,’ the study says.” The study is based on 73 sets of climate records, mostly from ocean sediment cores.
Immediately, several red flags come up. One, there has been no warming for at least a decade, and the climate models are failing. One cannot make any scientifically supported projections to 2100 based on the models. Two, researcher Marcott claimed that prior research had not extended global temperatures from proxies beyond the last 2,000 years. Ice cores go far beyond that and the new study is inconsistent with Greenland ice cores, which are supported by significant other proxy data. Three, the sampled time interval is between 20 to 500 years, making it difficult to make any comparisons with the rate of warming in the 20th century.
Four, a simple review of the studies listed in CO2 Science, the web site of Sherman, Craig, and Keith Idso, produces a multitude of studies that contradict the claim that the current warm period is unusual, even in the last 1,000 years. Under Medieval Warm Period, there are studies for every continent. Under Medieval Warm Period, Global, there a multitude of studies listed including one that had 6,144 sets of heat flow measurements from all the continents.
This episode is one more illustration of once distinguished scientific journals hyping an upcoming article by sending out early press releases to selected journalists who will write a sensationalized report on the article before anyone in the scientific community has a chance to read and think about it. Please see Article # 1, links under Defending the Orthodoxy and http://www.co2science.org/subject/m/subject_m.php
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Madison Avenue Science: Since the 1920s until recently, Madison Avenue in New York has been identified with the American advertising industry. Here many highly successful ad campaigns for consumer products such as toothpaste, aspirin, toilet paper, and, yes, cigarettes were concocted and implemented. In his book Propaganda, pioneer Edward Bernays made it clear he believed in what he was doing, and it was for the good of consumers and the country. He believed it was important for a self-selected elite to influence the general masses as to what to buy, to think, and to vote. Today, the term propaganda is no longer fashionable and has been replaced by “scientific marketing.”
Joe D’Aleo has pointed out that sociologist Edward Maibach established a scientific marketing center for the Climate Establishment. Indeed, a review of the web site of The Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University confirms D’Aleo’s view. All the trappings of Madison Avenue are there. “We use social science research methods – experiments, surveys, in-depth interviews and other methods – to find ways of effectively engaging the public and policy makers in the problem, and in considering and enacting solutions.”
“Our mission is to conduct unbiased public engagement research – and to help government agencies, non-profit organizations, and companies apply the results of this research – so that collectively, we can stabilize our planet’s life sustaining climate.” [Note the scientifically false assumption – that humans can stabilize the earth’s climate, which has never been stable.]
One of its programs was titled: “The Climate Change In The American Mind Series – Fall 2012,” which includes a series of reports concluding with: “The final report from Fall 2012 shows that the Alarmed have grown from 10 percent of the American adult population in 2010 to 16 percent in 2012. At the same time, the Dismissive have decreased in size, from 16 percent in 2010 to 8 percent in 2012.”
The site includes a special section for TV weather forecasters and their role as “Climate Educators.” Another section is titled: “Public Perceptions Of NASA And Other Federal Agencies’ Climate Research.”
NASA, the National Science Foundation, the National Park Service and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are listed among the major funding organizations.
No doubt, as with Bernays, the organizers of this site believe it is a noble cause. Critics may refer to it as “brain washing” using public tax money. Please see link: http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/welcome
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Extreme Weather: Maplecroft, an independent risk analysis firm, which sells its findings to businesses, humanitarian organizations, etc, came out with its report of the natural hazards experienced in 2012. Overall the year was the least deadly year in the past 10, with fatalities at about 10,000 or about 9% of the average for the past ten years of 106,000. Its findings were similar to those of the re-insurance company Munich Re. The major exception was the US, with Sandy and the drought. Please note there were no major mass deaths from earthquakes in 2012, which are unrelated to weather.
The organization’s Socio-economic Resilience Index 2013 ranks countries into four risk categories. The countries under extreme risk are mostly poor countries in Africa. Combining the resilience index with the natural hazard risk illustrates the importance of resilience in overcoming risks of natural disasters.
For example, with its many natural weather hazards, the US is in the top 20 countries most at risk countries for exposure to hurricanes, tsunamis, extra-tropical cyclones, storm surges, flooding, volcanic risk and wildfires. But it ranks at 169th (out of 197 countries) and “low risk” in the Natural Hazard Risk Atlas because it has the resilience to respond. This shows the importance of disaster preparedness. Please see link under Extreme Weather.
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Keystone XL: As expected, environmental organizations are furious about the State Department report on the environmental impact of the extension of the Keystone Pipeline proposed to be built from Canada to the US Gulf coast. A critical assumption in the report was that the oil sands will get to market somehow, probably by rail. Plans for rail shipments are underway and it would be very difficult for the Administration to stop rail shipments.
The hard core environmentalists are in a difficult position. As James Hansen explained, the purpose of the Keystone protest was not so much to protect the environment along the pipeline route, but to prevent the oil from reaching refineries, which Hansen believed would promote dangerous global warming. Now, even Hansen is being criticized for his public role in the protest by some of his allies in the press. Please see links under Energy Issues – Non-US and Washington’s Control of Energy.
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Václav Klaus: After ten years in office, Václav Klaus retired as President of the Czech Republic. He is one of the few politicians who confronted extreme green and climate alarmism. He understood the goal – control of humanity. His countryman, Lŭboś Motl lists some of President Klaus’s many accomplishments. Please see link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Additions and Corrections: A number of readers corrected a sentence in the section on Antarctic Ice Cores: … prior research with had indicated with changes in temperatures leading changes in temperatures carbon dioxide by about 800 years plus or minus several hundred years.
One such study states: “High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 +/- 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations. Despite strongly decreasing temperatures, high carbon dioxide concentrations can be sustained for thousands of years during glaciations;…” The last part goes to the unanswered question that with the onset of an ice age, why do temperatures fall when carbon dioxide levels remain high? CO2 concentrations are not the control knob of climate the Climate Establishment asserts. Please see: Ice Core Records of Atmospheric CO2 Around the Last Three Glacial Terminations, By Hubertus Fischer, et al. Science, 1999, http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~hfischer/Publications_files/fischer99sci.pdf
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Number of the Week: $40 Billion US. During a speech at a major energy conference, BP CEO Bob Dudley said BP spent over $24 Billon on spill response, clean-up, fines, restoration, and claims paid to people, businesses and governments. The company has spent or provisioned for over $40 Billion [including sums already spend]. Even when recognizing the regrettable loss of 11 human lives; the sums spent, or provided for, should be put in some perspective.
BP is the largest deepwater leaseholder in the US section of Gulf of Mexico. Reportedly, the oil spilled (including that recovered) amounts to about 4 million barrels. $40 Billion is $10,000 per barrel, about 100 times the going price. After considerable delay, in part from a “boot on the neck” Washington mentality of which Department of Interior Secretary Salazar boasted, the well was capped and the plume virtually disappeared in three weeks, largely eaten by microbes.
Environmentally slanted reporting became an absurdity. Oil soaked pelicans were the poster children in the press. As reported in the April 23, 2011 TWTW, contemporary reports from US Fish and Wildlife showed the agency, which advertised for them, had collected 2303 dead birds with visible oil for the year immediately following the spill. This works out to be $17,368,650 per bird. Should this be the standard for wind farms?
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. The Anatomy of Climate Science Hype
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Mar 5, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/03/the_anatomy_of_climate_science_hype.html
2. Letter- Essay reveals “original sin eco-guilt”
By Charles Battig, The Hook, Mar 7, 2013
http://www.readthehook.com/109233/letter-essay-reveals-guilt-over-original-eco-sin
Link to article:
Children: Adorable environmental disasters
By Jeff Feldman, The Hook, Feb 21, 2013
http://www.readthehook.com/109160/children-our-greatest-green-legacy
[SEPP Comment: Response to an article by a new parent lamenting the future carbon footprint of the baby.]
3. Greens Bash Energy Choice,
By Kimberley Strassel, WSJ, Mar 5, 2013
4. Carbon Power Politics
The next EPA chief and next phase of the Obama green agenda.
Editorial, WSJ, Mar 5, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Changing sun, changing climate
By Bob Carter, Willie Soon & William Briggs, Quadrant, Mar 8, 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2013/03/changing-sun-changing-climate
Vahrenholt & Lüning: “Today’s IPCC Is Clueless…IPCC Models Unable To Reproduce Documented Climate Of The Past”
Sun reveals its full climate power: Equator-pole temperature gradient fluctuates in sync with the sun
Translated by P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 7, 2013
Link to article: Solar irradiance modulation of Equator-to-Pole (Arctic) temperature gradients: Empirical evidence for climate variation on multi-decadal timescales
By Willie Soon and David Legates, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Feb 2013
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136468261200288X
Impressive negative NAO and AO producing hemispheric cold…links to solar
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Mar 3, 2013
[SEPP Comment: A negative North Atlantic Oscillation features a weak high pressure system in the subtropics and a weak low pressure system roughly over Iceland. A negative Arctic Oscillation features high pressure system over Arctic, causing a deep variation in the jet stream.]
Climategate Continued
The Delusion of Independent Government Appointed Inquiries.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Mar 8, 2013
http://drtimball.com/2013/the-delusion-of-independent-government-appointed-inquiries/
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Reasons to be grateful to Václav Klaus
By Lŭbos Motl, Reference Frame, Mar 7, 2013
http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/03/reasons-to-be-grateful-to-vaclav-klaus.html#more
Those people who are able to think critically started to realize that people aren’t saints or infallible just because they call themselves “scientists”.
Blog Memo to Lead Authors of NCADAC Climate Assessment Report
By Bob Tisdale, His Blog, Mar 4, 2013
Global Microwave SST Feb. 2013: -0.01 deg UAH global temperature +0.18C
By Roy Spencer, UAH, with Comments by Ryan Maue, WeatherBELL Analytics, ICECAP, Mar 5, 2013
Defending the Orthodoxy
Oregon State University researchers track temperatures back 11,300 years to gauge global warming
By Scott Learn, Oregonian, Mar 7, 2013
http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2013/03/oregon_state_university_resear_2.html
Link to the article: A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
By Shaun A. Marcott, Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Alan C. Mix, Science, Mar 8, 2013
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/339/6124/1198.abstract
Global Temperatures Highest in 4,000 Years
By Justin Gillis, NYT, Mar 7, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Doubtful.]
Marcott et al claim of ‘unprecedented’ warming compared to GISP ice core data
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 8, 2013
[SEPP Comment: A quick, rough analysis, but it illustrates there may be difficult issues with the claims in the Marcott et al. article.]
Earth Cooler Today Than 28% of the Past 11,300 Years
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Mar 7, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/earth-cooler-today-28-11300-years/
[SEPP Comment: Word games with the headlines describing the Marcott et al. article.]
Another hockey stick – this one billed as ‘scarier’ than Mann’s
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 7, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/07/another-hockey-stick-this-one-billed-as-scarier-than-manns/
Leading “Energy Expert” Frustrated That Germans Are More Scared Of Renewable Energy Than Climate Change
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 8, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Has five cold winters in a row made global warming desirable, especially for those who are unable to pay their heating bills?]
IPCC Invites In the Activists
When Greenpeace personnel are participating, a political process is underway – not a scientific one.
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Mar 6, 2013
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/03/06/ipcc-invites-in-the-activists/
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Politics: The Real Manmade Climate Crisis (Secretary Kerry, take note)
By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Mar 4, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/03/politics-manmade-climate-crisis/#more-24541
Signs of the Times: New York Times Kills Green Blog
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Mar 4, 2013
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/03/signs-of-times-new-york-times-kills.html
Questioning European Green
The green energy mirage will cost the earth
Britain is committed to unsustainable carbon targets only because our politicians duped us
By Rupert Darwall, Telegraph, UK, Mar 5, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Germany’s Wind Performance Was Just As Bad As Great Britain’s – Sun And Wind Are Often AWOL!
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 4, 2013
Energiewende sees emissions rise
By Staff Writer, WNN, Feb 26, 2013
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/EE_Energiewende_sees_emissions_rise_2602131.html
Costs exceed benefits
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Mar 6, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/6/costs-exceed-benefits.html
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Green Agenda and the Political Tipping Point
By Peter Glover, Energy Tribune, Mar 7, 2013
http://www.energytribune.com/74785/the-green-agenda-and-the-political-tipping-point
Can Global Warmist Get Their Story Straight?
By Marita Noon, Townhall, Mar 4, 2013
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Climate-Change Science Poised to Enter Nation’s Classrooms
By Katherine Bagley, Bloomberg, Mar 4, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Apparently the National Research Council, National Science Teachers Association, AAAS, and others remain ignorant of the fact that global warming stopped over a decade ago and the science of the Climate Establishment cannot explain why.]
A despotism over the mind
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Mar 5, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/5/a-despotism-over-the-mind.html
Seeking a Common Ground
Categorical Thinking and The Climate Debate
By Craig Loehle, on WUWT, Mar 5, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/05/categorical-thinking-and-the-climate-debate/
Graph of the Day: Global Weather Disasters and GDP
By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Mar 5, 2013
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/03/graph-of-day-global-disasters-and-gdp.html
Global tipping point not backed by science
By Staff Writers, Adelaide, Australia (SPX), Mar 04, 2013
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Global_tipping_point_not_backed_by_science_999.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Volcanoes Behind Earth’s Cooling; China and India Exonerated
By Staff Writers, Science World Report, Mar 1, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
[SEPP Comment: There is no mention that volcanic eruptions emit CO2 into the atmosphere, and there is no any evidence presented that volcanic activity for the last 17 years is greater than it was prior to that.]
Aerosols from Moderate Volcanos Now Blamed for Global Warming Hiatus
By Bob Tisdale, His Blog, Mar 2, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Since there is no consensus among Climate Establishment scientists why the globe is not warming, let’s invent a reason.]
Report Blames Climate Change for Extremes in Australia
By Matt Siegel, NYT, Mar 4, 2013
Mystery black-box method used to make *all new* Australian “hottest” ever records
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 3, 2013
Britain must act now to deal with more extreme weather
By Staff Writers, Environment Agency, Mar 4, 2013
http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/news/146242.aspx
[SEPP Comment: In 2012, one day in five saw flooding and one day in four saw drought – whatever that means.]
Alarmists’ lack of Consensus.
By Geoff Brown, NCTCS, Mar 7, 2013
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/alarmists-lack-of-consensus.html
Singling out short term trends in air temperature to imply that global warming is not occurring is incorrect and misleading.
[SEPP Comment: It is misleading to point out the globe is no longer warming and the models are failing, as Tim Flannery, the head of the Australian Climate Commission, claims?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
The Climate Commission plumbs new depths
Just one day after the IPCC Chairman claimed that global warming had stopped happening 17 years ago, the Australian Climate Commission rushed out a press statement, “The Earth Continues to Warm.”
By Barry Brill, Quadrant, Mar 6, 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2013/03/the-climate-commission-plumbs-new-depths
Australian climate on ‘steroids’ after hottest summer
By Staff Writers, Sydney (AFP), March 4, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Australian_climate_on_steroids_after_hottest_summer_999.html
Not the hottest ever summer for most Australians in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane. Not “extreme” heatwaves either.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 2, 2013
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Another dose of Flim-Flannery
The latest exercise in hucksterism from the Australian Climate Commission continues its tradition of distortion by omission and makes a mockery of any pretence to independence and reliability. The previous statement’s sleights of hand saw the commission shoot itself in the foot. In combination, the pair of documents amount to two barrels, both feet.
By John McLean, Quadrant, Mar 5, 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2013/03/another-exercise-in-flim-flannery
In a nutshell, the heatwaves were caused by warm conditions in central Australia, a monsoon running late, and winds distributing the warm air. I wonder which part the Climate Commission believes is under the influence of human activity.
[SEPP Comment: Temperature trends are now irrelevant.]
Canada’s glaciers could shrink by a fifth by 2100
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), March 7, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Canadas_glaciers_could_shrink_by_a_fifth_by_2100_999.html
Models v. Observations
NASA satellite data shows a decline in water vapor
By Ken Gregory, Friends of Science.org, on WUWT, Mar 6, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/06/nasa-satellite-data-shows-a-decline-in-water-vapor/
The D.C. Snowstorm Forecast Failure
By Cliff Mass, His Weather Blog, Mar 7, 2013
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-dc-snowstorm-forecast-failure.html
[SEPP Comment: The huge uncertainty in the models was not appropriately discussed in the weather reports. The European Model again did better than the US models.]
DC snowstorm buries climate change hearing
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Mar 6, 2013
[SEPP Comment: For DC, the heavy snow did not occur.]
Measurement Issues
A note about temperatures
By John Coleman, on WUWT, Mar 3, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/03/a-note-about-temperatures/
I conclude the temperature data does not prove global warming. The alarmists are wrong. But the temperature data is so unreliable and garbled that neither alarmists nor skeptics can use it to conclusively prove they are right.
Accurate water vapour measurements for improved weather and climate models
By Staff Writers, Bundesallee, Germany (SPX), Mar 06, 2013
NASA Eyes Declining Vegetation In The Eastern United States From 2000 To 2010
By Staff Writers, Moffett Field CA (SPX), Mar 05, 2013
Link to article “Declining Vegetation Growth Rates in the Eastern United States from 2000 to 2010
BY Christopher Potter, Shuang Li, & Cyrus Hiatt, Natural Resources, Dec 2012
http://geo.arc.nasa.gov/sge/casa/Potter_Li_EasternUS.pdf
[SEPP Comment: There are several issues with the article. The increase in forest cover is primarily from decline in logging rather than decline in wildfires. By the 1880s the eastern forests were virtually logged out. In the Mid-Atlantic States, at least, foresters are noting more robust growth, attributed to increased CO2.]
Changing Weather
2012 least deadly for natural disasters in 10 years, but lack of resilience leaves key economies at ‘extreme risk’ – Maplecroft
By Staff Writers, Maplecroft, Mar 7, 2013
http://maplecroft.com/about/news/nha_2013.html
Winter ranked # 4 snowiest, November to February #2 for the Northern Hemisphere!
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Mar 6, 2013
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/winter_ranked_4_snowiest_november_to_february_2/
[SEPP Comment: Records started in 1966/67. Addresses the claim that the snow is due to excess water vapor from the melting of Arctic ice.]
Central Europe, Scandinavia Brace For Worst March Temperature Plummet Since 1987!
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 6, 2013
This winter has been characterized by its darker, colder and snowier conditions. It was the most sunless German winter since measurements began in 1951. On average the sun appeared for only 96 hours over the three-month period, which is only 62% of the mean of 154 hours.
Changing Seas
Global Warming Report: By End of Century, Sea Will Rise 0.66 Feet–Or 6.6 Feet
By Elizabeth Harrington, CNS News, Mar 6, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/global-warming-report-end-century-sea-will-rise-066-feet-or-66-feet
[SEPP Comment: The great certainty the IPCC expressed in the projections of models is becoming great uncertainty within the models. This exhibits the lack of rigor of science from the Climate Establishment.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Sea Ice Records and the Great Storm of 2012
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Mar 6, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/arctic-sea-ice-records-great-storm-2012/
Study: Black carbon aerosol forcing may be an important factor affecting the snow & ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 7, 2013
Global warming to open ‘crazy’ shipping routes across Arctic
By John Roach, NBC News, Mar 4, 2013
Link to abstract: New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury
By Laurence Smith and Scott Stephenson, PNAS, Mar 4, 2013
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/02/27/1214212110
[SEPP Comment: And if the climate models are wrong will the mariners suffer the fate of many of those who sought the Northwest Passage? No! Because the crews of modern ships powered, largely, by fossil fuels are more able to endure the hardships of Arctic cold.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Simulating the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole
Reference: Kataoka, T., Tozuka, T., Masumoto, Y. and Yamagata, T. 2012. The Indian Ocean subtropical dipole mode simulated in the CMIP3 models. Climate Dynamics 39: 1385-1399.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2013/mar/5mar2013a3.html
Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Biases in CMIP 3 & 5 Models
Reference: Li, G. and Xie, S.-P. 2012. Origins of tropical-wide SST biases in CMIP multi-model ensembles. Geophysical Research Letters 39: 10.1029/2012GL053777.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2013/mar/5mar2013a4.html
Population Growth, Atmospheric Change and Global Food Security
Reference: Ziska, L.H., Bunce, J.A., Shimono, H., Gealy, D.R., Baker, J.T., Newton, P.C.D., Reynolds, M.P., Jagadish, K.S.V., Zhu, C., Howden, M. and Wilson, L.T. 2012. Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 279: 4097-4105
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2013/mar/6mar2013a1.html
The Potential for CO2-Induced Species Changes in Grasslands
Reference: Polley, H.W., Jin, V.L. and Fay, P.A. 2012. Feedback from plant species change amplifies CO2 enhancement of grassland productivity. Global Change Biology 18: 2813-2823.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2013/mar/6mar2013a3.html
Litigation Issues
Keystone XL pipeline faces property-rights challenge in Texas
By Laurel Brubaker Calkins, Bloomberg, Mar 3, 2013
French wind power spun into knots
By Staff Writers, Reuters, Feb 25, 2013 [H/t Anne Debeil]
http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/french-wind-power-spun-into-knots
[SEPP Comment: Tariffs, forcing consumers to more for electricity produced by wind power, are being contested in EU court as being a form of undeclared state aid.]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
EIA: U.S. Power Sector SO2, NOx Emissions Lowest Since 1990
By Sonal Patel, Power News, Mar 7, 2013
http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/5435.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2631162&hq_l=8&hq_v=5e660500d0
[SEPP Comment: A cap-and-trade that did work.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Wind Jobs at PTC Risk: Not 37,000 per AWEA but 2,525 (these million-dollar jobs displace real jobs, too)
By Robert Bradley, Master Resource, Mar 8, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/03/wind-jobs-ptc-2525/
Inflated Numbers; Erroneous Conclusions
By Charles Cicchitti, American Energy Alliance, Mar 2013
[SEPP Comment: A sharp challenge to the report, especially the job numbers, used to justify extension of the Production Tax Credit, the major Federal subsidy to the wind industry.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
The Climate and the Constitution
By Jonathan Tobin, Commentary, Mar 5, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2013/03/05/the-climate-and-the-constitution-obama-global-warming/
Cabinet Picks Could Take On Climate Policy
By John Broder and Matthew Wald, NYT, Mar 4, 2013
EPA, Energy Department can tackle climate change on several fronts
By Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, Mar 5, 2013
Congressmen demand investigation of EPA selectively blocking FOIAs
By Mark Flatten, Washington Examiner, Mar 7, 2013
http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/2523626
Energy Issues – Non-US
Canada’s energy superpower dreams
By Terence Corcoran, Financial Post, Mar 6, 2013
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/03/06/terence-corcoran-canadas-energy-superpower-dreams/
Will Chavez’s death spoil oil sands’ party?
By Claudia Cattaneo, Financial Post, Mar 6, 2013
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/03/06/will-chavezs-death-spoil-oil-sands-party/
Harper government missing boat on Keystone
By Tom Harris, Winnipeg Free Press, Mar 7, 2013
Chronicles of Ineptitude, Special Energy Edition
By Steven Hayward, Powerline, Mar 3, 2013
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/03/chronicles-of-ineptitude-special-energy-edition.php
[SEPP Comment: Government errors.]
Energy Issues — US
US Getting More Economic Bang for Its Energy Buck
By Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, Mar 1, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Producing more with less by lowering the cost of energy in producing a product. On a GDP basis, US energy consumption and CO2 emissions are less than 50% of what they were in 1949.]
US was world’s largest petroleum producer in November, surpassing Saudi Arabia for first time in ten years
By Mark Perry, AEI, Mar 5, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comments: The number includes all liquid fuels, including natural gas liquids and Biofuels.]
Report: US oil-and-gas production up despite drop on federal lands
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Mar 5, 2013
Link to report: U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production in Federal and Non-Federal Areas
By Marc Humphries, CRS, Feb 28, 2013
A Scientist’s Misguided Crusade
By Joe Nocera, NYT, Mar 4, 2013 [H/t Bud Bromley]
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/05/opinion/nocera-a-scientists-misguided-crusade.html?hp&_r=0
Washington’s Control of Energy
Obama’s War On Drilling: Oil Surplus, Not Scarcity, Is The New Regulatory Excuse
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Mar 3, 2013
Keystone Pipeline: State Department Finds Little Environmental Impact
By Steve Goreham, Washington Times, Mar 4, 2013
State: No Environmental Reason To Delay Keystone XL
Editorial, IBD, Mar 4, 2013
Railroads emerge as alternative to Keystone XL pipeline for moving oil sands from Canada
By Steven Mufson and Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, Mar 2, 2013
[SEPP Comment: If the numbers are correct, at least 650,000 barrels per day could be moved by rail. However, rail is more expensive and more prone to accidents than a pipeline.]
Why Environmentalists Are Wrong on Keystone XL
By Robert Rapier, Energy Tribune, Mar 6, 2013
http://www.energytribune.com/74722/why-environmentalists-are-wrong-on-keystone-xl
Report: Search for oil, not drilling rules, driving rigs off federal lands
Energy » Shale oil is luring developers to private and state properties, report says.
By Brian Maffy, Salt Lake Tribune, Mar 5, 2013
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/money/55952860-79/oil-gas-report-federal.html.csp
[SEPP Comment: The low price of natural gas has caused a shift to oil and gas liquids, but the Federal government will not grant timely permits for any wells.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Industry leaders gather in Houston for CERAWeek energy conference
By Jeannie Kever, Houston Chronicle, Mar 3, 2013
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/03/03/layers-of-energy-topics-at-ihs-ceraweek/
BP CEO: ‘Peak oil’ talk quieted by abundance
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Mar 6, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/286501-bp-ceo-peak-oil-talked-quieted-by-abundance
He said that at current consumption rates, data suggests that the world has 54 years’ worth of proven oil reserves and 64 years worth of proven gas reserves, adding, “more will be found.”
No retreat from Gulf for BP
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Mar 6, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/286521-bp-ceo-no-retreat-from-gulf-of-mexico-despite-spill
Is the Theory of ‘Peak Oil’ Dead?
By G. Tracy Mehan, American Spectator, Mar 5, 2013
http://spectator.org/archives/2013/03/05/is-the-theory-of-peak-oil-dead
Return of King Coal?
Mayor Bloomberg is wrong on coal
By Frank Clemente, Energy Facts Weekly, Mar 7, 2013
http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=29bc7d5d85828d574f86c157a&id=1cdb9dfa21&e=
[SEPP Comment: The Mayor’s dead man walking is running ahead of the pack. Harmful emissions in the US have declined dramatically thanks to new coal plant technology.]
As U.S. scales back, ‘King Coal’ reigns as global powerhouse
By Patrice Hill, Washington Times, Mar 4, 2013
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/4/king-coal-reigns-as-global-powerhouse/
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Second leak at North Sea oil platform forces evacuation
By Staff Writers, London (AFP), March 02, 2013
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Second_leak_at_North_Sea_oil_platform_forces_evacuation_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Several interesting points including: 1) the structure is about 35 years old, operating in the brutal conditions of the North Sea, and 2) the operating company is the Abu Dhabi National Energy Company. It remains to be seen how long a wind farm will last in the North Sea.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
WHO: Low radiation risk from Fukushima
By Staff Writers, WNN, Feb 28, 2013
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_WHO_Low_radiation_risk_from_Fukushima_2802131.html
[SEPP Comment: This low estimate is even from using the ridiculous linear-no threshold model.]
Japan riled by WHO’s Fukushima cancer warning
By Staff Writers, Tokyo (AFP), March 1, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Japan_riled_by_WHOs_Fukushima_cancer_warning_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Not happy with the low estimate, see link immediately above.]
US may face inevitable nuclear power exit
By Staff Writers, Los Angeles, CA (SPX), Mar 05, 2013
http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/US_may_face_inevitable_nuclear_power_exit_999.html
[SEPP Comment: The goal of many green organizations.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Bad News for Wind Energy
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Mar 5, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/03/05/bad-news-for-wind-energy/
[SEPP Comment: Wind power – expensive, unreliable, and short lived.]
Rethinking Wind’s Impact on Emissions and Cycling Costs
By David Wagman, Power, Mar 1, 2013 [H/t Peter Friedman]
Wind Farms Paid £10,000 a Day to Sit Idle in Blustery Conditions
By Tim Webb, The Times, via GWPF, Mar 6, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/wind-farms-paid-10000-day-sit-idle-blustery-conditions/
[SEPP Comment: The full article is behind a paywall.]
Why windfarms get paid to switch off
By Mat Hope, Carbon Brief, Mar 4, 2013
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/03/why-windfarms-get-paid-to-switch-off
[SEPP Comment: Questioning the £10,000 a Day in the link above and coming up with a better (?) solution: force households to use electric appliances only when the wind is blowing.]
Another solar manufacturer gives up
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 7, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/07/another-solar-manufacturer-gives-up/
The BP unit “is the latest sun energy business to fall victim to rampant competition from China, falling prices, overcapacity and lower government subsidies on which the industry still depends.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
NASA Begins Flight Research Campaign Using Alternate Jet Fuel
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX) Mar 05, 2013
[SEPP Comment: It’s bad enough for the Navy to be squandering money on Biofuels, now NASA follows suite. Perhaps they have money to burn.]
Air Quality
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Mar 8, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/8/air-quality.html
[SEPP Comment: Demand that biofuel sources be exempt from air quality rules, then sue the government over air quality.]
Hydrothermal liquefaction – the most promising path to a sustainable bio-oil production
By Staff Writers, Aarhus, Denmark (SPX), Feb 11, 2013
[SEPP Comment: May be promising, but comparing this process to the breakthroughs of the windmill industry is not favorable.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Hyping Electric Vehicle Sales
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Mar 8, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/03/08/hyping-electric-vehicle-sales/
[SEPP Comment: Clarifying deliberate confusion in naming the new vehicles – does it have an internal combustion engine (ICE) and is the ICE the primary source of power?]
California Dreaming
California’s Green Jobs: Where Did They Go?
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Mar 5, 2013 http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=22912&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DPD
Health, Energy, and Climate
Mice and men: Again no connection
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Mar 7, 2013
http://www.acsh.org/mice-and-men-again-no-connection/
Oh Mann!
Mike’s AGU Trick
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Mar 2, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/02/mikes-agu-trick/#more-17336
[SEPP Comment: Perhaps next time the new leadership of the AGU will employ magicians.]
Irony Hypocrisy on steroids–UVa plugs new “Open Science Center” while simultaneously keeping Michael Mann’s science notes away from the public
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 5, 2013
Environmental Industry
New York’s “Sustainability” Plan: aka “Agenda 21”
By Mary Kay Barton, SPPI, Mar 7, 2013
http://sppiblog.org/news/new-yorks-sustainability-plan-aka-agenda-21#more-9124
Environmentalists ‘outraged’ by federal Keystone XL report
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Mar 3, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://dailycaller.com/2013/03/03/environmentalists-outraged-by-federal-keystone-xl-report/
Other Scientific News
Additional Details on the Large Fireball Event over Russia on Feb. 15, 2013
By Don Yeomans and Paul Chodas for Near-Earth Object Program Office, (JPL) Mar 04, 2013
How to Thrive in Battery Acid and Among Toxic Metals
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX,) Mar 08, 2013
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/How_to_Thrive_in_Battery_Acid_and_Among_Toxic_Metals_999.html
Other News that May Be of Interest
Wine, Weather, and Smoke
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 5, 2013
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/03/wine-weather-and-smoke.html
[SEPP Comment: The smoky taste in that wine may not be from the grape.]
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Quote of the Week – blaming Nature for poor model performance
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 7, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/07/quote-of-the-week-blaming-nature-for-poor-model-performance/
Gov. Cuomo held up on fracking in NY to await health study
By Staff Writer, AP, Mar 2, 2013
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/03/02/gov-cuomo-held-up-on-fracking-in-ny-to-await-health-study/
[SEPP Comment: According to the article, the governor’s advisor on the issue is his former brother-in-law, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who opposed the childhood vaccination because it may cause autism, based on a totally discredited study.]
Global Warming causing biblical plagues – like locusts
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 4, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/04/global-warming-causing-biblical-plagues-like-locusts/
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not new news but thought everyone may enjoy, from NASA in 2004- the supposed hottest decade,
“No other summer in the past 117 years provided all three conditions.
Summers that were cool and rainy also tended to be cloudy, with few
sunny days. Summers with a high number of sunny days were also hot and
dry. The summer of 2004 gave farmers the perfect balance of sun, rain,
and cool air”
http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=14813
This week, several articles appeared discussing a just published paper by Willie Soon and David Legates: Solar irradiance modulation of Equator-to-Pole (Arctic) temperature gradients: Empirical evidence for climate variation on multi-decadal timescales. The paper asserts that changes in TSI influence changes in the temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole.
Soon & Co commit the deadly sin of using obsolete, outdated, and wrong data [ http://www.leif.org/research/Temp-Track-Sun-NOT2.png ]. Their use of the Hoyt&Schatten 20-year old [wrong] reconstruction is unforgivable, and your sin quoting their paper is even worse [confirmation bias]. How do you think you can have any credibility pushing this nonsense? You are damaging the reputation of skeptics.
I’ve just left this on Bob Tisdales post so I might as well leave it on yours. If you try to heat the surface of a bucket of water using a heat source such as a heat gun you will find that the water completely rejects the heat’ It appears to me that this is where everybody is wrong, they are forgetting surface tension. You cannot have a climate model that ignores surface tension.
Leif, your comment is impolite and unscientific. Have you read the paper in question? You say they use the 20-year old version of Hoyt & Schatten. First of all, the series was updated by Nicola Scafetta and Richard Willson in the published literature as you are well aware.
The Soon and Legates paper reads “The solar radiation parameter adopted here is based on the
comprehensive reconstruction of total solar irradiance (TSI) by Hoyt and Schatten (1993),
which derives from multiple solar activity proxies (see discussion below). Scafetta and
Willson (2009, 2012, private communication) have updated and re-scaled this TSI series through 2010. Note that since 1979, satellite-based cavity radiometers have measured the absolute level of TSI to lie between 1360 and 1375 W m – 2, while physical modeling yields a theoretical value of 1379.9 W m – 2 (Fontenla et al., 2011). We have used the newer value of TSI obtained by ACRIM-3 (Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor-3) which indicates that from 1979 to 2011, TSI ranged between 1360 and 1363 W m – 2 (Willson, 2011). This value is consistent with the suggested calibrated values of about 1361 W m – 2 by the PREMOS (Precision Monitoring Sensor onboard the PICARD satellite mission) experiments (W. Schmutz, 2012, private communication2) and also with the value of 1360.8 7 0.5 W m – 2 estimated by Kopp and Lean’s (2011) total irradiance monitor (TIM). Based on their comprehensive nature, we believe the estimates from Hoyt and Schatten/Scafetta and Willson to be the most reliable estimates of TSI currently available (see further discussion below”..
You may disagree with their scientific assessment and there are many uncertainties in any reconstruction, but rather than give any scientific reasoning you disparage the persons. Shame on you.
Read the paper – http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136468261200288X , then feel free to make any scientific comments.
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