Sea Ice News: Volume 4 #1 – Arctic Ice gain sets a new record

From the Nature abhors a vacuum department comes this note from RealScience showing that Arctic sea ice has made a stunning rebound since the record low recorded in the late summer of 2012.

With a few weeks of growth still to occur, the Arctic has blown away the previous record for ice gain this winter. This is only the third winter in history when more than 10 million km² of new ice has formed.

ScreenHunter_175 Feb. 12 10.35

Source data: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

Of course, this is only a record for the satellite era data back to about 1980, and just like the much ballyhooed record low of 2012, we have no hard data to tell us if this has happened before or not.

Here’s the current Cryosphere Today plot, note the steep rebound right after the summer minimum, something also noted in Sea Ice News Volume 3 Number 14 – Arctic refreeze fastest ever:

seaice.recent.arctic[1]Source: Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois

The Arctic ocean is well filled with ice right now:

cryo_latest[1]

Source: Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois

In other news, the Antarctic seems to be continuing on its slow and steady rise, and is now approaching 450 days of uninterrupted above normal ice area according to this data: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008…which shows the last time the Antarctic sea ice was below normal was 2011.8932 or 11/22/2011.

seaice.recent.antarctic[1]

This continued growth of ice in the Arctic Antarctic make the arguments for ice mass loss in Antarctica rather hard to believe, something also backed up by ICESAT data.

As always, you can see all the sea ice data at the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page.

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of

Perhaps the ice is flowing from Antarctica into the Southern Ocean 😛

Phobos

Please; this is merely an attempt to be clever with statistics. If we keep seeing record gains since the summer minimum, why do we keep seeing lower minimums and lower yearly averages?

The hotter it is, the more ice we get. Don’t be a denier of basic physics. It’s like reverse condensation, like a refrigerator makes it hot in the room, a counter-intuitive thing certainly that is beyond the intellect of dumb deniers.
“If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder by the year 2000…This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age.” -Kenneth E.F. Watt, Earth Day 1970
“Telltale signs are everywhere (regarding the coming of the next Ice Age) from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice in the waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest. Since the 1940s the mean global temperature has dropped about 2.7° F.” -Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia U in Time Mag, 1974. http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,944914,00.html

Greg

yep, no surprises there. The “catastrophic accelerating melting” ended in 2007 !
http://oi49.tinypic.com/xudsy.jpg

MangoChutney

@Phobos
Isn’t “record” ice melt, temperatures, etc etc just an attempt at being clever with statistics anyway, especially when you consider all this “unprecedented” stuff has happened before

Eric Simpson – What did Fran and Ollie say?

Mohatdebos

Don’t get too excited. It just means there will be more first-year ice to melt next year.

OssQss

The weather pattern in the US over the next few weeks will make many folks think they live in the arctic 😉

James at 48

Also notable is snow cover. Earth may be moving into a different mode, something unseen during recorded history. One frightening second order effect is drought. Here in CA, with the true nature of negative PDO (and maybe some even longer term modulation in force) is really setting in. Our failure to invest in water storage and delivery infrastructure over the past 40 years is really going to be a hard lesson.

An excellent choice of metaphors Anthony. I understood it to mean “the mind wants to know”.

Roy

Presumably the record rate of ice growth is a consequence of global warming and is therefore something we should worry about, just like we are supposed to do when the ice is melting.

Liberal Skeptic

I know it’s new growth and unlikely to survive too well in the summer, but the rapid growth is encouraging (for the debate) as it shows the artic is feeling this cold as well.

Ian H

Isn’t a bigger than normal recovery just spin on a lower than normal minimum?

Greg

Phobos says:
Please; this is merely an attempt to be clever with statistics. If we keep seeing record gains since the summer minimum, why do we keep seeing lower minimums and lower yearly averages?
No. It’s counter propaganda. If alarmists expect us all to wet ourselves everytime there’s an ice minumum in September, we should also be looking at the speed of recovery.
The annual ice minumum jamboree is like saying OMG it was dark last night a midnight, if the “trend” continues it will soon be dark 24 hours per day!
As my plot above showed, if you use ALL the data rather than just one day per year you start to get some understanding of what is happening.
http://oi49.tinypic.com/xudsy.jpg
And, yes, there is less ice now than 30 years ago, that means a lot of it is thin ice, so there will be a larger loss AND gain cycle each year.
It is blattently obvious from my plot that there is a strong cycle of 5.4 years.
There is also a strong linkage with Atlantic SST , which we know to have a strong 60 year cycle.
http://oi46.tinypic.com/r7uets.jpg
The “statistical trick” is the alarmist hugh and cry every year whilst ignore the clear signals seem by looking at the whole year and not just one day.

Richard LH

“Phobos says:
February 12, 2013 at 11:31 am
Please; this is merely an attempt to be clever with statistics.”
No just the inconvenient fact that, for some of the year at least, the Artic Sea Ice remains stubbornly high.
The sign of a well regulated system?

Keitho

I see what you are doing, but why bother. Stooping to their low standards is easy but meaningless. Maximum and minimum have meaning, averages are just folk doing sums.

Bob722

Phobos says:
February 12, 2013 at 11:31 am
“Please; this is merely an attempt to be clever with statistics. If we keep seeing record gains since the summer minimum, why do we keep seeing lower minimums and lower yearly averages?”
So record (of the last 30 years) lower minimums and record lower yearly averages are YOUR facts, but record gains are merely an attempt to be clever with statistics?? If you know the answer please tell us the WHY?
I am not a scientist, nor did I stay in a Holiday Inn last night, but Manhattan Island was under a few thousand feet of ice about 20K years ago. One could presume it melted because the earth has warmed, and has been warming almost continually for the last 20K years, not just the last 200 years.
But since you apparently know better, so please enlighten us.
Thanks and have a sparkling day…

Rhys Jaggar

I have to say that there is nothing very surprising in this.
Given that the temperature at the North Pole is around 40 below, it follows that large areas around there will have temperatures well below zero in mid winter. Ergo, the ice will reform in most places.
Perhaps the issues which will become more important in time are the areas with thickness greater than 1m, 1.5m and 2m??
Has anyone started looking at that yet, or is the data still too young for any meaningful analysis to be made?

Resourceguy

Maybe this needs to be classified as one of the many small shifts at the margin of cooling climate from turning points and declines in ocean cycles and solar grand minimum. There are bound to be a lot of subtle shifts in this turn.

SCheesman

I have to join the “not impressed” crowd. You would expect a record rise following a record drop. Didn’t the previous record rise in 2008 follow a previous record low? Drop a ball farther and it will bounce higher. Ice melts and and ice forms. It’s warmer now, it was cooler then. It might get cooler again, or not — give it time. Here is my prediction – if the minimum ice level later this year returns to more “average” levels, we will see a corresponding drop in the recovery come next spring!

RACookPE1978

The thing to remember about Arctic sea ice loss is that – contrary to every generalization in the CAGW alarmist “doctrine” – reducing Arctic sea ice extents, at the time of their minimum extents in Mid-September near the equinox, means MORE heat loss from the Arctic waters! (That is, you can calculate more heat loss from the Arctic waters above 80 north latitude by radiation, evaporation, conduction and convection heat transfer when the sea ice is removed from those latitudes, than you gain from the increased solar heat that is absorbed into the newly exposed but “darker” Arctic waters.
Thus, LOSING 2 million square kilometers of sea ice in mid-September from the Arctic COOLS the Arctic, and – as Judith Curry reports – INCREASES the probability of increased land-side snow and ice accumulation in the next months!
On the other hand, down south at the edge of the Antarctic sea extents of 15.5 million sq kilometers – in a latitude band of 62 south to 63 south – INCREASING Antarctic sea ice extents DOES reflect more solar energy than the open water formerly exposed to the sunlight, and thus ALSO COOLS the southern seas around Antarctica!
This is because at 62 to 63 south latitudes, the sun is much higher in the sky at the equinox and so spreads out less than in the Arctic at the same day-of-year, has much less attenuation in the atmosphere during every hour-of-the-day as penetrates that less distance, and the water it hits has a much smaller albedo at those higher solar incidence angles.

Athelstan.

Um, will the BBC report this remarkable rebound? Ha ha ha…..
Having said that, low sea ice in summer, big sea ice in the Arctic in Winter – so what – that’s winter in the NH.
Anecdotally speaking, here at 52′ N in dear old Blighty – winters are getting colder and man made emissions are nowt to do with it – its a cyclical thing and we are on the down slope, in the Alps the snow cover – is coming again and some Russian observers are talking about a real return to winters cold…..
http://notrickszone.com/2013/02/10/new-peer-reviewed-study-shows-climate-trend-reversal-in-swiss-alps-now-cooling-since-2000/

Why do alarmists persist in trying to have it both ways? If ice melts, it’s due to CAGW. If ice grows, it’s due to CAGW. Is it supposed to be one or the other, or maybe both at once, or does it takes turns? What triggers that? Again and again, they sound like they don’t know, but persist in being certain it’s CAGW.
Just when DO these guys question the meme? Oh, of course, they don’t – because if they did, they’d instantly stop being alarmists. Maybe they are too terrified of that possibility to dare question anything. Poor sods.

Phobos says:
take a look at global sea ice and you will see we are at either near normal or at record high levels I mean if you people are going to speak of this on a global level then look at it as a global level and don’t leave out the things that could ruin your propaganda.

Gunga Din

Hmmm…Did Mann tweet anybody to confirm this is record? Guess not.

RACookPE1978

Does the DMI and NSIRDC consider the Hudson Bay, Denmark Straits, and Bering Sea and North Sea “part” of the Arctic sea ice extents in all of the sea ice page charts?

Austin

I wonder what it would take to ice over the GUIK gap? And how that would affect the Arctic vortex? I watched the wind fields this winter as Hudson Bay iced over. Once it iced over, this allowed much colder air to form and stabilize over Canada. I imagine that full ice cover over much of the GIUK gap would do the same thing. The Arctic would have a much larger reservoir of cold air to push around – and this would intensify the cooling of the mid-latitudes due to MPHs?
Has anyone plugged something like this into the current weather forecasting models to see what pops out?

Scottie

Is this a tipping point?

Phobos

@MangoChutney says:
“…all this “unprecedented” stuff has happened before.”
When? Not since 1900 http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/images/ice_extent.gif

Ken Chapman

“..we have no hard data to tell us if this has happened before or not.”
Have you tried the US Naval Oceanographic Office (formerly US Naval Hydrographic Office)? They likely have historical arctic sea ice extents dating long before satellite data was available. In the American Practical Navigator (1966), it mentions USNHO publication of monthly charts showing the average extent of various degrees of navigability in the northern and southern hemispheres throughout the year. Figure 3609 page 754 is an example.
An interesting observation for a 1966 publication, “There is evidence to indicate that the polar regions are becomming warmer. Nearly all the glaciers are receding; the ice shelves of the northern Canada and Greenland are breaking up; shipping off the Siberian has become possible; cod are found farther north along the Greenland coast.”

Phobos

@PaulID says “take a look at global sea ice and you will see we are at either near normal or at record high levels.”
You mean this week? So what??? Were u asleep last september? Or sept 2007?

Phobos

@RACookPE1978 — if you think losing arctic summer ice cools the artic, show the proof. rss and UAH both show a warming arctic LT.

Manfred

A good reminder that claims of “lake effect type snow” in the northern hemisphere are bogus at least since January.

Pat Michaels

Um…the greater the area of open water at the summer minimum (~Sept 15), the greater the recovery once the sun goes down, which would start on Sept 21 at the North Pole. More than anything, this graphic is an illustration of summer ice loss, as the entire Arctic Ocean re-freezes every winter. There are declines in maximum extent driven at the southern margins (mainly), but, in general, the more that is lost in the summer, the more that is gained in polar night.

michaelspj

This appears to have eaten my previous comment–
Um…this graphic is really a proxy for maximum summer ice loss. The more that is lost at the northern margin the more that is gained in polar night. After all, the entire Arctic Ocean refreezes every winter (and will until the cows come home). Declines in maximum ice extent are driven at the southern margins in the Atlantic and Pacific. So the big gain after this summer’s lows, thanks to the refreezing of the Arctic Ocean is hardly surprising.

Matt

Phobos says:
February 12, 2013 at 12:39 pm
@MangoChutney says:
“…all this “unprecedented” stuff has happened before.”
When? Not since 1900 http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/images/ice_extent.gif
#########################################################
It’s too bad NOAA doesn’t include error bars on that graph. Ice extent data prior to the satellite era is iffy at best and the data prior to WWII is little better than pure speculation.

1. check volume.
2. check sat views of the condition of this ice.
3. go figure, lots of open water, lots of H20 given up to the atmosphere to fall in the NH in as snow in massive quantities.
4. faster ice buildup, but thinner and weaker than in the past.
2013 fall.. start predicting now

James Griffin

Anthony: We are aware that there was a bad storm that broke up the Arctic Sea Ice between 4th-9th Aug last year.
Question: Do we know the ice extent in the days leading up to the storm?…..if so how did it compare with previous years?
Thanks,
James

RACookPE1978

Phobos says:
February 12, 2013 at 12:44 pm

@RACookPE1978 — if you think losing arctic summer ice cools the artic, show the proof. rss and UAH both show a warming arctic LT.

I was very specific in my statement, and in the LIMITS of that statement: “You” are the one extending it to the “Arctic” as a whole, and to the “summer months” as a a long period of time!
I said above, and will repeat – at the of MINIMUM Arctic Sea ice extents – at the LATITUDE of the EDGE of the Arctic sea ice at its MINIMUM sea ice extents, losing an additional 2 million sq kilometers of sea ice increases net heat loss from the Arctic Ocean.
You asked about temperature records: The only records that exist for that latitude show exactly the trend I mentioned: And, in fact, they do show that the daily DMI Arctic air temperature record for 80 north latitude shows NO warming since records began in 1959 during the summer months (the only time when direct solar radiation “might” be affected by increasing CO2 levels), but rather, the summer air temperatures at 80 north latitude have steadily DECREASED over the past 15 years as sea ice extents near 80 north have decreased – just as the calculations show they should.
Both Hansen’s NASA-GISS and the RSS/UAH “warming Arctic” reports are for the CENTRAL CANADIAN TUNDRA and forests around Great Slave Lake and the Hudson Bay at 60 degrees latitude! – NOT the Arctic Ocean sea ice edge between 72 degrees north and 80 north latitudes. You are trying to extrapolate NASA’s central Canadian temperature -which HAS increased due to the much lower albedo of 18 to 28% greater forest, bush, grass, and tundra growth as CO2 increased the past 60 years – 1800 kilometers north across the Arctic Ocean where the only temperature record that does exist shows cooling! Look again at Hansen’s “red blanket” of his supposed Arctic warming: the “blip” that is the station he is extrapolating from is in the middle of the “greenest” depths of the Arctic.
Look again at what I wrote about the increasing Antarctic sea ice extents: At THAT LATITUDE of the Antarctic Sea Ice Maximums, sea ice DOES reflect more solar energy and the net heat balance DOES cool the ocean. But this effect does NOT at the edge of the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. Were there apprciable sea ice in the Arctic at 62 north in mid_September, losing sea ice would increase the heat gain. But there is NO Arctic sea ice that far south in September, hence the “problem” (crisis ?) of Arctic Sea Ice amplification does not – and cannot – exist.
Except in the minds of the CAGW theists.

Matt

Phobos says:
February 12, 2013 at 12:44 pm
@RACookPE1978 — if you think losing arctic summer ice cools the artic, show the proof. rss and UAH both show a warming arctic LT.
############################################################################
Likely a result of the open arctic water shedding heat to the atmosphere. The oceans have a much higher thermal mass than the atmosphere. There isn’t enough energy in the atmosphere for the atmosphere to drive ocean temps.
Sea surface temps for the arctic during the summers would be interesting to look at. It’s too bad ARGO doesn’t cover the arctic.

Manfred

Phobos,
your chart conflicting with historic evidence
From 1957:
“Northpole ice has decreased by something as 40% in volume…this has been going on for 30-40 years”
Also predicting no ice in year 2000 if trend continues
http://i680.photobucket.com/albums/vv161/Radiant_2009/popularmechanics1957-2.jpg
From 1947
“The Arctic is melting says scientist”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/22429983?searchTerm=climate%20change&searchLimits=
From 1922
“The changing Arctic”
“The Arctic seems to be warming up…all point to a radical change in climatic conditions
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf
Various more references here:
http://www.real-science.com/new-giss-data-set-heating-arctic

RACookPE1978

Matt says:
February 12, 2013 at 1:03 pm

(replying to)
Phobos says:
February 12, 2013 at 12:44 pm
@RACookPE1978 — if you think losing arctic summer ice cools the artic, show the proof. rss and UAH both show a warming arctic LT.
############################################################################
Likely a result of the open arctic water shedding heat to the atmosphere. The oceans have a much higher thermal mass than the atmosphere. There isn’t enough energy in the atmosphere for the atmosphere to drive ocean temps.
Sea surface temps for the arctic during the summers would be interesting to look at. It’s too bad ARGO doesn’t cover the arctic.

From the sea ice reference page, look at the very, very small standard deviation for the 50+ years of DMI temperature data since 1959. Day-to-day variations over the entire period are less than 1/4 of one degree!
Plot the summertime temperatures (winters do show a large change from day to day!) and you’ll see the declining daily temperatures at 80 north I mentioned.
At time of minimum Arctic sea ice extents, the Arctic sea ice is now varying between 7 million km square and 4 million km square: this corresponds to a “beanie” over the Arctic from the Pole down to [76.5] degrees latitude (at 7 million km sea ice).
Today, with a 3 million km square sea ice cap, the southern edge of the sea ice is right at 81 north latitude. [At 4 million km square sea ice, the southern edge is at 79.8 latitude.]

Mike Jowsey

But.. but… but…. it’s a death spiral! A tipping point. Irreversible catastrophe. Ice-free Arctic will be the new normal. These are the alarms we have been inundated with – how dare you actually look at raw data?

michael hart

Presumably (for what it’s worth) the new ice is not yet covered with black-carbon aerosols, the previous accumulations having been rinsed into the ocean.

Manfred

After AMO, black carbon is the main driver of arctic sea ice and northern hemisphere glacier melt:
Reasons:
1. Bond et al 2012 landmark study doubled black carbon forcing to 1.1 W/m2
2. Surface effect on snow and ice average is 0.13 W/m2, but is much stronger on northern hemisphere multi year ice due to accumulated pollution. Multi year ice melt is central to glacier and sea ice variation.
3. James Hansen: “BC on snow warms the planet about three times more than an equal forcing of CO2″
4. P.K. Quinn: :Black carbon emissions from northern Eurasia, North America, and Asia have the greatest absolute impact on Arctic warming.”
5. However, black carbon emissions actually occurring within the Arctic (such as hords of NGOs and climate scientists travelling the arctic) have a disproportionately larger impact per particle on Arctic warming than emissions originating elsewhere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_carbon
Forcing estimate black carbon on multi year ice > 3 W/m2
http://judithcurry.com/2013/02/08/open-thread-weekend-8/#comment-293710

MikeN

You couldn’t add that this is to be expected because of the record melt?

Bill Yarber

Phobos
The USS Skate surfaced at or near the north pole several times during the summer of 1958. There are photos that show the Skate in open water and other pools of open water in the area. In the 1930’s, the British navy was reporting the rapid reduction in Arctic sea ice. Then in the 60’s & 70’s, the projection was we were heading into another Ide Age. There are natural cycles that produce temperature changes on decade, Millenia and longer time periods. Only looking at the past 30 years of data is like reading the last page of a book and believing you know the whole story.
Remember, the Arctic and Antarctic were ice free all the time some 3.5-4 million years ago before the formation of the Ismus of Panama blocked a deep ocean current and started the glaciation cycles. Geologist believe that Earth has come close to complete glaciation twice: 600 million and 2.4 billion years ago. CO2 concentration changes are a lagging indicator of Earth’s temperature swings, they are not a forcing, no matter what the CAGW crowd says!
Bill

Gary Pearse

And you can probably add 10% to the ice extent simply because, with an CAGW bias, there is room in the data to choose from a band of data. It is like IPCC and temp – they are not going to underestimate; they are going to choose the highest “sensitivity” they can get away with.

Nigel Harris

I can only assume this post is some sort of post-ironic joke. Of course the entire Arctic basin is going to refreeze every winter. Nobody expects anything else, at least for a good few decades yet. The only reason the area of new ice formed is a new record is that there was so much open water to start with! You’re just measuring last year’s summer minimum another way, and spinning it as a gain!

In re vacuum; There is no such thing as a vacuum, only very low pressure. Mean free path and molecules per cm^3 in interstellar space are >10^4 km and 1 cm^-1 (@STP are 66 nm and 2.5 x 10^19 cm^-3).
Even in intergalactic space, volume density of matter is not zero. Then there is ‘vacuum energy’.
I used a thousand cubic foot thermos of LN2 with a small diffusion pump to maintain ~0.1 Torr, ten orders of magnitude higher pressure than on the Moon.