Open Thread Weekend

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Topics of general nature per the blog masthead today.

Behave, don’t make me come back here.

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Paul Vaughan

Chandler = cracked
Last night I cracked the code of the Chandler wobble phase reversal. I’ve no time to explain, but check out figures 4-10, particularly the top panels (Rz) of figures 7 & 10 here:
Lu, H.; Li, Y.; Clilverd, M.A.; Jarvis, M.J. (2012). Trend and abrupt changes in long-term geomagnetic indices. Revised for Journal of Geophysical Research – Space Physics 08-03-2012.
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/18615/1/LuEtAl_2011JA017422_JGR_SpacePhysics.pdf
More details as the days & months unfold (almost certainly not in the format people crave & demand if the natural-climate funding drought persists — good health and a hearty sense of humor are the only defenses against this).

Gunga Din

I had put this up as a comment before. I changed the first and last lines.
To the tune of “I saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus”
Original here:
http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/c/christmas_songs/i_saw_mommy_kissing_santa_claus.html
I saw Al kiss Arab Oil’s can
When I saw “His Rotunda” last night.
There was oil everywhere
In that sale to Al Jazzera
Guess anything is “Green” it seems if dollar signs are there.
Then, I saw Algore make the PR rounds
And pretend that he is still all snowy white.
Oh, what a laugh it would have been,
To hear what Hansen and Greenpeace screamed
When Al kissed Oil’s can last night!

Paul Vaughan

I’ve found a substantial error in the thermospheric neutral mass density literature, but I’m not free to elaborate due to the “Rules of the Road”:
http://cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu/wiki/index.php/Tools_and_Models:Emmert_sat_drag_neutral_mass_density
Background:
Qian, L.; & Solomon, S.C. (2012). Thermospheric density: an overview of temporal and spatial variations. Space Science Reviews 168, 147-173. doi:10.1007/s11214-011-9810-z.
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/assets/osgc/OSGC-000-000-010-554.pdf

Paul Vaughan
jim waters

Here’s an saying i like.
“Being a global warming skeptic is cool”

ENSO Meter fans, umm, Sea Ice fans too:
The meter is missing. Not AWOL, but broken for now. It lives as an image file on Comcast’s “Personal Web Pages,” a “free” service of Comcast that they are muttering about abandoning. Well, already abandoned, new subscribers can’t sign up for it, but today I think broken and not shutdown.
My guess is Comcast will fix it tomorrow. Unless they say it’s not worth their effort. I also have other WUWT stuff there, probably a couple sea ice images and my guide to WUWT. If Comcast doesn’t fix it soon, Anthony and I can get things back up quickly.
Oh hey – it may be back now.

D. Patterson

CNN appears to be pulling out all of the stops for journalistic integrity during the current Northeast U.S. severe weather in order to support the Obama Administration’s latest push for Climate Change legislation. Are readers seeing anymore gaffes like the following?
Chad Myers Lies .
Published on Jan 23, 2013
Chad Myers blamed cold air gripping North America on the lack of sea ice in the arctic, when in fact, it is frozen solid.

Parody or Does She Believe It? CNN Anchor Blames Asteroid on Global Warming .

CNN Anchor Blames Asteroid on Global Warming? Guest, Bill Nye .

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2014/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2014/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2002/to:2014/plot/gistemp/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/uah/from:2002/to:2014/trend
the lowest linear trend in this graph is the one from UAH
which seemingly goes against all other dataets
so pray do tell,
how can anyone reconciliate UAH with any other data set
never mind my own,
which shows much more cooling, still, generally, than any other data set,
and where is Roy Spnecer trying to defend his data set?
(he always seems to avoid WUWT)

DirkH

HenryP says:
February 10, 2013 at 9:58 am
“and where is Roy Spnecer trying to defend his data set?
(he always seems to avoid WUWT)”
At his blog.
Dr. Roy Spencer:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/02/uah-global-temperature-update-for-january-2012-0-51-deg-c/
“Due to the rather large 1-month increase in the temperature anomaly, I double checked the computations, and found that multiple satellites (NOAA-15, NOAA-18, and Aqua) all saw approximately equal levels of warming versus a year ago (January, 2012), so for now I’m accepting the results as real. The most common cause of such warm spikes (when there is no El Nino to blame) is a temporary increase in convective heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. This would suggest that the global average sea surface temperature anomaly might have actually cooled in January, but I have not checked to see if that is the case.”

Just a heads up. I have managed to locate the definitive link between Paul Ehrlich and the global education reforms gutting the transmission of knowledge, turning hard science into modelling, and making the social sciences about trying to use ed to change human nature. These people apparently skipped Greek tragedies and hubris. I should have it written up tomorrow.
In the mean time I have chronicled how Agenda 21 and a definition of citizenship grounded in justice for everyone and recognizing a commitment for sustainable devt was part of the 2001 ed reforms enacted all over the UK and Australia. http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/mandating-global-citizenship-mindsets-by-assessing-whether-students-adopt-social-altruism/ is where I explain that and how the Global Citizenship mandate is coming to the US and other countries through these poorly appreciated performance assessments that are an intrinsic part of the Common Core.
It is indeed how Ehrlich boasted of being more than 5 years into a near total revision of human behavior. And how USGCRP intends to use education to squelch climate skepticism.
Not so fast I say.

Jim G

@Anthony Watts
No one seems to care that we have 30mph winds (gusting to 40) and snow in WY.
Nothing on the over dramatized Weather Channel or on the news. No FEMA folks
stopping by, no over dressed reporters. Of course no one lives here and we don’t really notice it
much ourselves. It is winter in WY, after all. Too bad though that AGW is a hoax as it could help
our real estate prices here, but then we kind of like the fact that we don’t have too many
Californians moving in. Have a good day wherever you are.
The Original Jim G

Kelvin Vaughan

HenryP says:
February 10, 2013 at 9:58 am
and where is Roy Spnecer
I think he’s trying to sort himself out Henry!

Ronald

http://www.skepticalscience.com/16_years_faq.html
Ye they have found a way to turn the cooling to warming.

philincalifornia

Mann and Trenberth at it again.
Did data nincompoop Trenberth forget that he published recently that it was the deep ocean that stole his global warming ?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/08/climate-change-blizzard-global-warming_n_2649587.html

Leon0112

Just read a piece saying a group of scientists believe a giant asteroid hitting what is now Mexico caused the extinction of dinosaurs and many other species. Question: Did the asteroid cause an Ice Age? Did it cause global warming at the time? Do we have any educated guesses?

Manfred

HenryP,
UAH in your graph has not the lowest linear trend but the highest. It is just at the bottom of your plot due to the lowest offset.
UAH and RSS are very synchronous, they differed a bit around 2002, that’s why their trends 2002-2014 are a bit different.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/to:2014/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/uah/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/uah/from:1979/to:2014.

Chris4692

HenryP:
That graph is really too busy with too many subtle differences in color among the sets to easily see whatever point it is you are trying to make.

Mark and two Cats

Okay, so I never went to college. Trying to understand this stuff anyway. People in other threads talk about heat from the Earth being lost out into space. How can heat be lost to space? As I remember from high school (a long time ago), heat is molecules jostling one another. Space is empty; how can heat be transferred into nothing?
Yeah I’m prolly missing something obvious. Be kind.

Gunga Din

philincalifornia says:
February 10, 2013 at 10:38 am
Mann and Trenberth at it again.
Did data nincompoop Trenberth forget that he published recently that it was the deep ocean that stole his global warming ?

==========================================
I think his “missing heat” is buried in a snow drift.

henry@kelvin
i am glad you are also keeping an eye on things!

geran

Mark and two Cats says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:11 am
Okay, so I never went to college. Trying to understand this stuff anyway. People in other threads talk about heat from the Earth being lost out into space. How can heat be lost to space? As I remember from high school (a long time ago), heat is molecules jostling one another. Space is empty; how can heat be transferred into nothing?
Mark, the heat energy “lost to space” is radiation. There are three types of heat transfer–conduction, convection, and radiation. (Radiation is in the form of electromagnetic waves, for example, infrared.)

henry@dirkh
we are not talking abt just one result
it is many results?

Gunga Din

geran says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:32 am

Mark and two Cats says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:11 am
Okay, so I never went to college. Trying to understand this stuff anyway. People in other threads talk about heat from the Earth being lost out into space. How can heat be lost to space? As I remember from high school (a long time ago), heat is molecules jostling one another. Space is empty; how can heat be transferred into nothing?

Mark, the heat energy “lost to space” is radiation. There are three types of heat transfer–conduction, convection, and radiation. (Radiation is in the form of electromagnetic waves, for example, infrared.)

==========================================================
Also remember that the “molecules jostling” is a result of heat (energy), not the cause of it.

DirkH

geran says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:32 am
“Mark, the heat energy “lost to space” is radiation. There are three types of heat transfer–conduction, convection, and radiation. (Radiation is in the form of electromagnetic waves, for example, infrared.)”
I’d like to add, as space is mostly devoid of molecules, energy transfer in space happens almost entirely by means of radiation.
Incoming radiation from the sun is mostly in the visible light spectrum. At full sunshine 1 kW/m^2 hits the ground. Some of this is infrared radiation. Some UV.
To compensate for this incoming radiation, Earth must radiate to space a nearly identical amount of radiation. Some of it is visible light, some of it is infrared radiation.

DirkH

HenryP says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:45 am
“henry@dirkh
we are not talking abt just one result
it is many results?”
I don’t know. You complained Spencer doesn’t appear here – I just wanted to point out he has his own blog; ask him over there (and I pasted a text that I found talking about the latest spike)

Neo

If correlation is causation then …
Some twenty years ago, I began to notice that every time there was a prediction of a snow storm, if I could go to the supermarket and find an Entenmann’s Danish with no nuts that it would be a bad storm.

I blame Global Warming on the fact that Entenmann’s stopped making the Danish with no nuts.

My sympathies to all the people in the NE of the US. This side of the pond in NE England we have below average temperatures and snow forecast. This is the stuff that we were told would be a “rare and exciting event” just 12 years ago. We have had a pretty bad winter here, but never mind AGW can be blamed for that too!

dmacleo

digging out. got just enough of driveway done to park 2 side by side. working on the road. have single lane access but am widening for double. road drifted bad, average 4 feet deep.
did a 600 foot long by 15 feet wide (to expand the single lane) done, took almost 2 hours.
use the equipment shown here
http://www.theconservativevoices.com/uploads/1299289193/gallery_2_501860.jpg
going to take me few days to widen the road, problem is I have more due and then this weekend another storm it looks like.
may have to mount the spare blower to the small tractor and have wife do the cleanup from me climbing banks and moving them.
the lugged tires on garden tractor allow me to go approx 50 deg angle climbing banks.
all while so disabled I can hardly stand or walk. long days LOL

Mark and two Cats says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:11 am

Okay, so I never went to college. Trying to understand this stuff anyway. People in other threads talk about heat from the Earth being lost out into space. How can heat be lost to space? As I remember from high school (a long time ago), heat is molecules jostling one another. Space is empty; how can heat be transferred into nothing?
Yeah I’m prolly missing something obvious. Be kind.

The respondents responding with “radiation” are correct, but not too kind.
This isn’t alpha particles and beta rays kind of radiation, it’s photons, the same sort of radiation you feel coming from the sun, a hot engine block, or a wood stove. Hot sources put out visible light, cooler sources put out infrared light, even really cold objects still radiate longer wavelengths – a frozen turkey does, the Earth’s ice caps do, carbon dioxide gas does. Pretty much every photon that makes out of the Earth’s atmosphere doesn’t come back and is lost to space.

Village Idiot

Sen. Marco Rubio (“The Republican Savior”) climbs onboard:
“First of all, the climate is always changing. That’s not the fundamental question. The fundamental question is whether man-made activity is what’s contributing most to it. I understand that people say there is a significant scientific consensus on that issue, but I’ve actually seen reasonable debate on that principle.”
“reasonable debate” – read WotsUpWThat. Good job y’all :))

Manfred

HenryP says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:38 am
henry@manfred
UAH IS OUT WITH ALL TRENDS
Not only RSS
——————————-
No, very similar to RSS
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/offset:-0.09/plot/rss/trend/offset:-0.09/plot/uah/plot/uah/trend
—————————-
Consider
1. to adjust for different baselines
2. tropospheric temperature trends (RSS, UAH) are not supposed to be the same as ground measured temperature trends, mainly due to hotspot in the tropical troposphere.
(they are supposed to be higher, though in reality they have been lower since 1979. But that is just another issue with climate models and UHI, not satellite data.)

oldfossil

Only got one “bite” when I posted this at thelukewarmersway.com so I thought I’d try it out on you guys.
Global warming will cause the following damage & disruption:
> Sea level rise
> More frequent and more severe drought
> More frequent and more severe flooding
> More frequent and more severe storms
> Species decline e.g. coral polyps, polar bears
> Spread of disease
> Large-scale population displacement
Some other but less credible claims to be found at:
http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/sciencetech/5-deadliest-effects-of-global-warming/276?image=0
How about a factual discussion of the likelihood of each of the above seven consequences?

Lewis P Buckingham

Mark and Two cats says..heat lost into space.
Its a bit like you are sitting in front of a campfire on a cold frosty night and the stars above are an immensity of twinkling lights.
You find your face gets hot from the radiation from the fire, your back gets cold.
The heat that hits you is radiant heat.As the embers die, so the heat on your face gets less and you put more wood on the fire.
Above you the atmosphere is ‘ feeling’ a bit the same as the campfire.
It has stored heat from the sun the day before, and it is radiating it into space where one day it may reach those stars. It can do this on its own without the help of anything else.

Shameless plug for my new blog post ‘The Power of a Tweet’ and some background to the David Attenborough ‘Africa warms 3.5 degrees’ story: http://mygardenpond.wordpress.com/2013/02/10/the-power-of-a-tweet-two-examples

Gunga Din

Neo says:
February 10, 2013 at 12:10 pm
If correlation is causation then …
Some twenty years ago, I began to notice that every time there was a prediction of a snow storm, if I could go to the supermarket and find an Entenmann’s Danish with no nuts that it would be a bad storm.
I blame Global Warming on the fact that Entenmann’s stopped making the Danish with no nuts.

=================================================================
Back in the late ’70s I occasionally had the opportunity to stop by an Entenmann’s Bakery Outlet store. They were good. But I don’t think they are to blame for Global Warming. Neither Mann nor Hansen are Danish and both are definitely nuts!

Justthinkin

Paul Vaughan says:
February 10, 2013 at 9:40 am
Cat checks out massive snow drift in Coldbrook, Newfoundland, Canada
“massive”???? You all must be from HI. My 4 cats have played with the dog in 25′ drifts. Just normal wx. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Interestingly, there was a Paul Ehrlich who was a real and honest scientist. He was Paul Ehrlich, born 14 March 1854 in Strehlen near Breslau and died 20 August 1915 in Bad Homburg vor der Höhe. He was a German physician and scientist who worked in the fields of hematology, immunology, and chemotherapy. He invented the precursor technique to Gram staining bacteria, and the methods he developed for staining tissue made it possible to distinguish between different type of blood cells, which led to the capability to diagnose numerous blood diseases. His laboratory discovered Arsphenamine (Salvarsan), the first effective medicinal treatment for syphilis, thereby initiating and also naming the concept of chemotherapy.
He was quite unlike his namesake Paul R. Ehrlich.
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ehrlich

DirkH

oldfossil says:
February 10, 2013 at 12:43 pm
“Global warming will cause the following damage & disruption:”
Change that “will” to “would, if it proceeded”.
“> Sea level rise”
yes
“> More frequent and more severe drought”
No, not on average. A warmer world is a moister world. The Sahara was green during the Roman Warm period. And during other warm periods. North Africa was the corn chamber of the Roman Empire.
“> More frequent and more severe flooding”
Yes. Warmer = moister.
“> More frequent and more severe storms”
No. Cold places would warm up more than warm places. Says the official CO2AGW doctrine, and makes sense, you need less energy to heat up something cold by one degree than something hot – the hot object loses more energy through radiative losses. (Stefan-Boltzmann law)
Heat differences between poles and lower latitudes would diminish. Less heat difference means weaker storms.
“> Species decline e.g. coral polyps, polar bears”
No. warm places always have more biodiversity than cold places. Species can migrate, often meters suffice (get more in the shade, for instance)
“> Spread of disease”
Why would that be?
“> Large-scale population displacement”
As I said, cold palces would warm up more than warm places. The population displacement that could happen would be a migration to the North where previously unproductive land would become available for agriculture, and into the greening desert belts.

dave ward

“Corn shortage idles 20 ethanol plants nationwide”
http://news.yahoo.com/corn-shortage-idles-20-ethanol-plants-nationwide-174147906–finance.html
Must be global warming causing the drought…

Ack
oldfossil

While solar is a far less polluting energy source than coal or natural gas, many panel makers are nevertheless grappling with a hazardous waste problem. Fueled partly by billions in government incentives, the industry is creating millions of solar panels each year and, in the process, millions of pounds of polluted sludge and contaminated water.

http://news.yahoo.com/solar-industry-grapples-hazardous-wastes-184714679.html

Beware the Big Errors of ‘Big Data’ By Nassim N. Taleb, 02.08.13 9:30 AM
http://www.wired.com/opinion/2013/02/big-data-means-big-errors-people/
We’re more fooled by noise than ever before, and it’s because of a nasty phenomenon called “big data.” With big data, researchers have brought cherry-picking to an industrial level. Modernity provides too many variables, but too little data per variable. So the spurious relationships grow much, much faster than real information. In other words: Big data may mean more information, but it also means more false information.
Big data can tell us what’s wrong, not what’s right.

Mike McMillan

After watching the snow rise video in the last post, I surfed across this video explaining all the earth orbit variations. It’s a lot more than the ones in the Milankovitch cycles. 9½ minutes.

Goode 'nuff

This solar scientist has God given birth control, his personality. :*) The Spaniards converted the Mayan Calender to Gregorian and got it wrong… omg!!!! ;*)
He’$ 100% sure it’s March 28, not December 21, lol.
Losing his mind. Maybe it’s something in the water in Belgium…
http://translate.google.be/translate?sl=nl&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=nl&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http://www.nieuwsblad.be/article/detail.aspx?articleid=DMF20130118_00438765
http://translate.google.cl/translate?sl=es&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=es&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http://www.larazon.es/detalle_normal/noticias/478706/sociedad/me-arrepiento-de-haber-anunciado-el-fin-del-mu&act=url

Schitzree

First ever tornado to touch down in Mississippi.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/10/us/mississippi-tornado/index.html
Well, I assume it’s the first ever from the ways it’s taken over CNN. Maybe it’s just the biggest ever. Anyway, definitely caused by CAGW.
Global Warming
Climate Change
Climate Disruption
Ocean Acidifaction
Global Weirding
Climate Chaos
Extreme Weather
The New (and ever renamed) Normal

“dmacleo” – 50 degrees and no roll-over protection?!

Mike McMillan

Gunga Din says: February 10, 2013 at 12:54 pm
Neo says: February 10, 2013 at 12:10 pm if I could go to the supermarket and find an Entenmann’s Danish with no nuts that it would be a bad storm.
I blame Global Warming on the fact that Entenmann’s stopped making the Danish with no nuts.
=================================================================
Back in the late ’70s I occasionally had the opportunity to stop by an Entenmann’s Bakery Outlet store. They were good. But I don’t think they are to blame for Global Warming. Neither Mann nor Hansen are Danish and both are definitely nuts!

Hansen could be either Danish or Norwegian. Hanson might be Swedish. That’s the consensus view of Scandinavian names.
Mann and Entenmann could be German. Coincidence?

dmacleo

Keith Sketchley says:
February 10, 2013 at 5:29 pm
“dmacleo” – 50 degrees and no roll-over protection?!
****************************************************
thats vertical not sidehill, I do have 2 sidehill protectors. they ache right now 🙂
I also bypass the seat shutoff switch so I can shift weight as needed w/o tractor shutting off.
somewheres I had pics of the front being about 7-8 feet higher than the rear clearing a 10 foot bank.
the rear weight box tends to hit also to offer some warning but I can, and have, uassed the AO in a hurry when needed. the 200 lbs or so of snowblower and accumulated snow on it leverage out enough to help.
I am hard on equipment for some reason 🙂

D. Patterson

Leon0112 says:
February 10, 2013 at 10:39 am
Just read a piece saying a group of scientists believe a giant asteroid hitting what is now Mexico caused the extinction of dinosaurs and many other species. Question: Did the asteroid cause an Ice Age?
No, it did not. The impact generated enough heat in the region of the impact creator and somewhat beyond to reach temperatures comparable to the outer atmosphere of the Sun, 5,000C to 6,000C. This heated the Earth’s atmosphere enough in a matter of hours to cause plant life and animal life exposed to this atmosphere to burst into flames from spontaneous combustion. Terrestrial life in such protected places as burrows and caves and some marine life survived these flash fires and the rain of impact ejecta returning to Earth as a vast rain of meteoroids and a pall of dust and gases. The Earth then under went a period of time blanketed in dense clouds of dust, debree, and smoke that blotted out the Sun and brought winter like temperatures for a number of years. After awhile the skies cleared and the biosphere began to adapt to the new landscapes and marine changes to restart the biosphere. All of this occurred between the present ice age and its preceding ice age.
Did it cause global warming at the time? Do we have any educated guesses?
The Earth was already in a long and major decline in temperatures at the time of the iasteroid impact. After the asteroid impact, the long decline in temperatures reversed for a very short while and then resumed their long decline into the present ice age. How much of the brief reversal of the downward trend in temperatures was due to the asteroid impact remains subject to conjecture and study,