Glacially modeled snow job

From the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)  Alarmism, I think maybe they are a bit unclear on the concept of how glaciers work.

As snowfall varies with the seasons, the flow of ice speeds up and slows down.

Besides, it isn’t real data, but just another modeling scenario tweaked for a particular outcome. I had to laugh at this quote:

“We now know that snowfall in Antarctica will not save us from sea-level rise,”

More ice loss through snowfall on Antarctica

Stronger snowfall increases future ice discharge from Antarctica. Global warming leads to more precipitation as warmer air holds more moisture – hence earlier research suggested the Antarctic ice sheet might grow under climate change. Now a study published in Nature shows that a lot of the ice gain due to increased snowfall is countered by an acceleration of ice-flow to the ocean. Thus Antarctica’s contribution to global sea-level rise is probably greater than hitherto estimated, the team of authors from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) concludes.

“Between 30 and 65 percent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall in Antarctica is countervailed by enhanced ice loss along the coastline,” says lead-author Ricarda Winkelmann. For the first time, an ensemble of ice-physics simulations shows that future ice discharge is increased up to three times because of additional precipitation in Antarctica under global warming. “The effect exceeds that of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting,” Winkelmann says.

During the last decade, the Antarctic ice-sheet has lost volume at a rate comparable to that of Greenland. “The one certainty we have about Antarctica under global warming is that snowfall will increase,” Winkelmann explains. “Since surface melt might remain comparably small even under strong global warming, because Antarctica will still be a pretty chilly place, the big question is: How much more mass within the ice sheet will slowly but inexorably flow off Antarctica and contribute to sea-level rise, which is one of the major impacts of climate change.”

Since snowfall on the ice masses of Antarctica takes water out of the global water cycle, the continent’s net contribution to sea-level rise could be negative during the next 100 years – this is what a number of global and regional models suggest. The new findings indicate that this effect to a large extent is offset by changes in the ice-flow dynamics. Snow piling up on the ice is heavy and hence exerts pressure – the higher the ice the more pressure. Because additional snowfall elevates the grounded ice-sheet but less so the floating ice shelves, it flows more rapidly towards the coast of Antarctica where it eventually breaks off into icebergs and elevates sea level.

A number of processes are relevant for ice-loss in Antarctica, most notably to sub-shelf melting caused by warming of the surrounding ocean water. These phenomena explain the already observed contribution to sea-level rise.

“We now know that snowfall in Antarctica will not save us from sea-level rise,” says second author Anders Levermann, research domain co-chair at PIK and a lead author of the sea-level change chapter of the upcoming IPCC’s 5th assessment report. “Sea level is rising – that is a fact. Now we need to understand how quickly we have to adapt our coastal infrastructure; and that depends on how much CO2 we keep emitting into the atmosphere,” Levermann concludes.

###

Article: Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Martin, M.A., Frieler, K. (2012): Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall. Nature [doi:10.1038/nature11616]

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mpainter
December 12, 2012 6:53 pm

More wishful thinking by global-warming scientists courtesy of Nature. When you tell these types that there has been no warming this century, they look at you blankly.

Harold Ambler
December 12, 2012 6:58 pm

The press release is at war with itself. The most significant statement in it, IMHO:
“Since snowfall on the ice masses of Antarctica takes water out of the global water cycle, the continent’s net contribution to sea-level rise could be negative during the next 100 years – this is what a number of global and regional models suggest.”
By the way, it’s a good time of year to buy your pals a book about climate.
Best of the season to all.

Niff
December 12, 2012 7:01 pm

Virtual reality.
Provided they did not want to apply this in the real world it would be tolerable. Alas, we know different.
I am sure if they could simply replace all the carbon units (humanity) with virtual ones, that would solve everything….?

Steve Keohane
December 12, 2012 7:08 pm

The increased water from the ocean that makes the glacier calve more quickly back into the ocean is a problem how?

David Banks
December 12, 2012 7:11 pm

Its always worse than we thought. Today we had wind blowing higher than 5mph I barely survived as this was unprecedented.

garymount
December 12, 2012 7:15 pm

“Since snowfall on the ice masses of Antarctica takes water out of the global water cycle…”
It is the amount of surface area exposed to evaporation of the global bodies of water that determines how much water participates in the global water cycle. Rising sea levels increase this quantity. There is also sublimation.

Harold Ambler
December 12, 2012 7:16 pm

BTW, I see I cleverly linked the Kindle version. It is fun and easy to give Kindle books as gifts. All you need is your friend’s e-mail address, the knowledge that they’re a Kindle reader, and you’re good to go. Want to send them paper anyway? I understand.

Louis
December 12, 2012 7:36 pm

“…the higher the ice the more pressure. Because additional snowfall elevates the grounded ice-sheet but less so the floating ice shelves, it flows more rapidly towards the coast of Antarctica where it eventually breaks off into icebergs and elevates sea level.”
=====
I can’t follow this. Are they saying that Antarctic ice is already at a maximum so any additional snow will cause the ice underneath to flow into the sea? Has the ice on Antarctica ever been higher than it is today? If so, what kept it from flowing into the sea then? Does excess CO2 in the air make the ice more slippery? I’m really at a loss to understand the logic behind their conclusions.

Don Easterbrook
December 12, 2012 7:39 pm

Papers like this are why I don’t bother to read Nature anymore–it has lost all scientific credibility by publishing such nonsense. The authors apparently didn’t bother to check the temperature records at the South Pole and Vostok, which go back to 1957 and show no warming whatsoever over the past 55 years. If I understand the AGW arguments, sea levels are rising because the Antarctic ice sheet is melting away, and it’s also rising because the ice sheet is growing? That’s right up there with “the hotter it gets, the colder it will be!”
The Antarctic ice is growing because of its positive mass balance (more snow or less ablation). If snowfall has increased, it isn’t because of warming because there hasn’t been any.

December 12, 2012 7:49 pm

I saw this paper early today. The press release was worth a good laugh the remainder free and worth every penny.

P.G. Sharrow
December 12, 2012 7:50 pm

Catastrophe is the only outcome from any possible scenario, We are all doomed! pg

mbw
December 12, 2012 7:50 pm

“Niff says:
December 12, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Virtual reality. …”
No. I call it “virtual reading”. What else explains people criticizing an article they have not read?

December 12, 2012 7:55 pm

Usually when I read an article and have no clue what the author is talking about, the article is heavy in math, but this article is just bizzare. They seem to be saying if it snows more the glaciers just calve icebergs faster because the snow weighs down the ice. Then they say it’s snowing more because of global warming and the warm air holds more moisture, yet that doesn’t make any sense to me because as the warm moist air moves south along the surface from the horse lattitudes toward the polar region where it rises at high latitudes in the vicinity of 60 degrees, dumping the moisture as rain and release vast amounts of heat into the upper atmosphere above the CO2 saturation level, which cools the temperate regons. The rising air cools and dehydrates, then returns to the surface over the poles; therefore no matter how warm the Earth gets, the air is unlikely to bring additional snow fall over Antarctica, and that’s why Antarctica is a desert.

Antarctica, on average, is the coldest, driest, and windiest continent, and has the highest average elevation of all the continents.[4] Antarctica is considered a desert, with annual precipitation of only 200 mm (8 inches) along the coast and far less inland. Antarctica

With an annual precipitation of 200 mm, I wouldn’t be surprised if the glacers didn’t have sublimatation as their primary albation mechanism.

anarchist hate machine
December 12, 2012 8:04 pm

Potsdam Institute for Climate Alarmism… PICA – A disorder in which a person hungrily craves things that have no nutrient value, such as clay, sand, or dirt. In this case, money. It fits.

u.k.(us)
December 12, 2012 8:07 pm

Ya just can’t win for losing.

RockyRoad
December 12, 2012 8:15 pm

F = ma
That’s the equation all glaciers obey (along with practically everything else unless approaching the speed of light). If they don’t, then there’s horseplay at work.
My rock mechanics professor began each lecture with that simple equation then derived the day’s lesson from it, which was fascinating in and of itself. A stiff course in rock mechanics derived from this simple yet elegant equation would do these “theoretical glacial climatologists” a lot of good.
Add to that a lesson in logic and more research on the topic would likely change some of their conclusions, but their big stumbling block is that CO2 has caused this warming. Everywhere in the geologic record does it show warming increases the level of CO2; nowhere does it show that CO2 causes the warming.

alex
December 12, 2012 8:18 pm

“Since snowfall on the ice masses of Antarctica takes water out of the global water cycle, the continent’s net contribution to sea-level rise could be negative during the next 100 years – this is what a number of global and regional models suggest…”
“Thus Antarctica’s contribution to global sea-level rise is probably greater than hitherto estimated, the team of authors from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) concludes…”
……………………..
What they mean “greater contribution”? Greater negative?
Never mind. Anyway, Ricarda is such a sweet mice in her red jacket on the pristine white antarctic snow!

December 12, 2012 8:34 pm

“A number of processes are relevant for ice-loss in Antarctica, most notably to sub-shelf melting caused by warming of the surrounding ocean water. These phenomena explain the already observed contribution to sea-level rise.”
One has to wonder if they ever rehearse or practise these articles/speeches/hypothesis/dream-time-theories in the mirror, it would at least give them some indication on how ridiculous they really sound. It is a typical example of an article, with the bets going both ways but zero on the winner. Cognitive dissonance is an affliction granted to these type of almost-thinkers. The rationale of their presented argument does not stand any scrutiny at all. I am absolutely amazed and flabbergasted about how anyone can get their thinking processes so completely befuddled.
If it was a child, you would send it to it’s room for being silly.

Manfred
December 12, 2012 8:52 pm

Disturbing to hear that a PIK employee is lead author of the sea-level change chapter of the upcoming IPCC’s 5th assessment report, despite the Interacademy Report
“called upon the IPCC to develop policies governing conflict of interest, including
intellectual conflicts of interest in which Lead Authors are in a position of reviewing their own
work, or have revealed through speeches, public statements or writings that they hold “fixed
positions”.”
http://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/rmck_climategate.pdf

Patrick B
December 12, 2012 9:05 pm

“We now know that snowfall in Antarctica will not save us from sea-level rise,” says second author Anders Levermann,
“Know” this? as in scientific fact? based on an unproven model that is regularly adjusted?
This is not science. This is a religion based on studying the entrails of chickens.

john robertson
December 12, 2012 9:15 pm

This is good, almost as coherent as saying CO2 emissions from Asia cause cooling, I smell an attempt to explain the sea ice expansion around the antarctic continent, by the most bizarre reasoning .
Glowball warming causes more snow, more snow(by weight) causes ice to flow to sea faster, ice flows calving into sea cause sea ice to grow(cause it can’t escape? melt? Pinned by manmade wind?) Sea ice expansion makes continent colder.And makes the ocean colder.
Ergo…. AGW causes Antarctic ice to grow.
Death is too good for these shaman impersonating grant suckers.
Trade them to North Korea?

Wellington
December 12, 2012 10:08 pm

I beg to differ. This is a major scientific discovery. Winkelmann et al have proposed the perfect mechanism to underpin Lovelock’s self-regulating Gaia hypothesis. The more the glacier grows the more it self-destroys. A genius of simplicity. No more mysterious planetary consciousness required.

December 12, 2012 10:59 pm

I have no great problems with the sub-hypotheses and assumptions – nature does cycles – but the whole matter depends on the accurate measurement over long times of a large number of variables. It’s the type of scenario where a small error in one assumption can upset the whole apple cart. For example, in mining we use principal component stress analysis to predict rock burst; but an offshoot of that type of study is that I require much persuasion that the addition of a century of ice at the South Pole will have any measurable effect on the pressure at the base of the pile, however defined. Like, you can take a brick from a big brick wall and it not fall down or seem any different at the top.
I’m still waiting for someone from PIK to state in clear, unequivocal terms that no disconformity or unconformity has been identified in the extant ice layers, especially near the South Pole. It does not have to be the easily-recognised angular type, just a hiatus in deposition. This is important, not only for historical calibration, but also because the absence of a disconformity would indicate that the near-Pole ice has not melted before in the 700,000 years or so that are claimed to be measured in drill holes. I’m optimistic enough to think that 700,000 years of history is unlikely to be upturned at precisely the year in time that experts write their opus magnums.
Also, I keep wondering what climate existed at the bottom of these deep ice holes when the ice pile started to grow. Was it bare rock and warmish, was it sea near freezing, or was there already an accumulation of several km of ice that has long been moving down and out. Any evidence for conditions there in the past?

December 12, 2012 11:22 pm

I’ve come to the conclusion these extremists are all robots.We’ve been taken over by robots. Or aliens. Something that doesn’t think, doesn’t feel, doesn’t consider any other way. Brainwashed or programmed, I guess it’s the same thing. Maybe possessed. How do we snap them out of it? Stronger coffee? A slap upside the head? A group hug? What?
Humour was the first thing to go, then any consideration for others, up to and including acceptance of thousands of deaths to cold, soon more to hunger – let’s not get to the firing squads. Now they’ve stopped thinking. I suppose they have to in self-defence. I mean, how could they bear to? They’d self-destruct.
Is the restriction of CO2 so important to them that they’re willing to give up being HUMAN? The sad thing is, I think some really are, you know? Some are willing to sacrifice not only themselves but their own families and all of humanity. So here is another crime in all this mess – that someone has come along and very delibately taught these people to self-hate, to turn them into tools, into robots, into aliens. It must be so horrible inside their heads, seeing only the dark side, knowing only hatred and fear. Those poor sorrowful hopeless people, all of them.

P.G. Sharrow
December 12, 2012 11:22 pm

john robertson You have discovered the explanation for growing Antarctic Ice causing sea level increase! The Sea Ice that grows causes more sea water to be displaced then the the water that that was removed to create the ice. So the sea level rises. See I can be a Climate Scientist too. 😉 pg

E.M.Smith
Editor
December 12, 2012 11:35 pm

So… let me get this straight… as I read it, they’ve discovered:
“Ice does not infinitely build up in Antarctica” Who knew…
Then concluded that having X-30% or X-60% of new ice, constantly building up, causes the sea level to rise? What?
@mpainter:
Hmmm… good one… but doesn’t that also mean one could say:
“There has been no global warming this millennium!” ???
(Hey, if THEY can bend the truth, invent bogus stats, and generally make all out of proportion panic doomsaying out of nothing, then I can dress up a truth with some ‘seller puff’ 😉

December 12, 2012 11:43 pm

BTW, if my post (above) seemed a bit off topic, my point was that these same people keep pumping out these same reports, based on the same weak science or no science. They KNOW their models are faulty. They’ve known that for years. And, while they are in it for the money, they must KNOW that roll-on effect is catastrophic for civilization and all of humankind. They KNOW what they are doing. When are they going to face up to themselves?

grumpyoldmanuk
December 13, 2012 12:13 am

“Between 30 and 65 percent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall in Antarctica is countervailed by enhanced ice loss along the coastline,” Unless basic percentage maths has changed since I was at secondary school (college) 50 years ago, then it follows that 35-70% of the enhanced snow-fall accretes and adds to ice gain, taking water out of the oceans. Anyway you look at it, it’s a net gain for the frozen waste. Don’t they teach logic or maths at warmist school any more?

December 13, 2012 12:26 am

What if (ha) my pen was blue, and I use my blue pen everyday. what if (ha) tomorrow I changed the type of pen I used. What color would my blue pen be?
Answers on a self addressed envelope please.

December 13, 2012 12:32 am

Some of those glaciers must be awfully long if they all “reach the sea” as this paper seems to claim.

December 13, 2012 1:10 am

Louis:
There isn’t any logic.
That is the main problem.

Peter Stroud
December 13, 2012 2:30 am

As Don Easterbrook says: “The authors apparently didn’t bother to check the temperature records at the South Pole and Vostok, which go back to 1957 and show no warming whatsoever over the past 55 years.” Surely this must worry both the editors of Nature and those funding the work. All they have to ask is for the authors to produce the empirical data supporting their claims about Antarctic temperature history. What the hell is happening to science these days?

Admad
December 13, 2012 2:32 am

Remarkable. More snow and ice = higher sea levels. Higher sea levels = even more snow and ice. A perfect feedback loop, creating H2O (as snow and ice) out of nothing. Who’d have thought it? (sarc off).
Bull 541t.

grumpyoldmanuk
December 13, 2012 3:34 am

More on antarctic ice, this time from the British Antarctic Survey. It appears they’re all at it together.
H/T NoTricksZone
http://notrickszone.com/2012/11/12/study-confirms-antarctic-sea-ice-expanding-due-to-climate-change-british-antarctic-survey-scientists-claim/

Bill Irvine
December 13, 2012 4:51 am

The more snow that falls on Antarctica the heavier the glaciers become, and eny fule kno that heavy bodies fall faster than light bodies.

Just an engineer
December 13, 2012 5:33 am

Actually it’s not because of CO2. The real warming started when Daylight Saving Time was instituted. All that extra Daylight gets turned into heat and that has to go somewhere. The really scary part is that extra hour 7 months of the year is actually depleting the sun’s energy about 2.4% faster! This means the sun will run out of energy a lot sooner than we planned, and then we will really have a problem to deal with!
/sarc just in case one of the alarmists is reading this

Paul Vaughan
December 13, 2012 6:18 am

Are their hindcasts compatible with earth orientation parameter & oblateness records?
(These are rigid constraints. My guess is they ignore inconvenient observed aggregate constraints. Nobody wants to get caught suggesting violations of the laws of large numbers and conservation of angular momentum.) This press release smells particularly foul & corrupt. In order for mainstream institutions to maintain the trust of sensible members of the public, this work should be audited by capable parties with lucid awareness of aggregate constraints. (Paywalls also don’t help with maintaining public trust.)

barryjo
December 13, 2012 6:36 am

We better hope the volume of ice on Antarctica doesn’t grow appreciably. As we know, the earth wobbles on its axis. Due to centrifugal force, the more weight accumulated off-axis will logically increase the wobble. In time, this will cause the earth to explode and the pieces go flying off in all directions. That could spoil your whole day.
/sarc off

Coach Springer
December 13, 2012 7:19 am

They’ve discovered a maximum amount of ice that can be supported by a continent after which it slides off? And with that scientific discovery, they can predict that at some point in the fuiture that almost all of the ice will fall of Antarctica due to unstoppable global warming and those of us not already fried will drown. Doesn’t sound all that scientific and full of crevices.

CostCo
December 13, 2012 8:19 am

Has it already sank in that Greenlandic mass-loss has increased five-fold in 20-years, and that Antactic mass-balance is also somewhat negative (Shepherd et. al. 2012):
http://imbie.org/imbie-2012/results/
ps. Greenland has warmed up a lot in the last 20 years, both from above and via the sea.

CostCo
December 13, 2012 8:23 am

“MostlyHarmless says:
December 13, 2012 at 12:32 am
Some of those glaciers must be awfully long if they all “reach the sea” as this paper seems to claim.”
Yes, on Antarctica the longest ice-streams are 1000+ km long, see nice animation over here:
http://www.ess.uci.edu/videos/rignotanim

john robertson
December 13, 2012 9:08 am

A.D Everard, NO you are not off topic, there is little evidence of science, the scientific method or rational thinking about the planet and its weather systems.
All of the above seem to be cover, a cloak for a humourless self hating bunch. Persons so afraid, that they must control everything and everyone.
The CRU emails woke me up, the unease I was developing about the UN-IPCC and CAGW as I observed the battles for data exposed at Climate Audit& WUWT.
Also from my personal inability to access empirical science that supported the UN’s conjecture.
I would have called you a conspiracy nut, if you had told me what was in the contrast between the IPCC-FAR, the endless press statements from the team and the CRU emails.
Since late 2009 I have been in the grip of a growing anger, the alarm sounding crew are devious and foolish. After near 30 years of “The sky is falling because of our sin of civilized living”, all the deliberate falsehoods and attacks on our society these UN clowns and enablers probably believe they can just fade away and keep their ill-gotten gains and or pensions.
Guess we will see.

David Larsen
December 13, 2012 9:22 am

Why then did the last major glaciation melt from SE Wisconsin back to above the arctic circle? Must of been a lot of global warming going on 10-12 thousand years ago.

Gail Combs
December 13, 2012 10:48 am

For what it is worth, a map of Antarctica without ice and the flows of ice labeled in meters per year, Source University of California
http://sciencedude.blog.ocregister.com/files/2011/08/GlacierAntartica.jpg
Volcanoes in Antarctica map
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/AntarcticVolcanoes2.jpg
And the WUWT article: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/01/22/surprise-theres-an-active-volcano-under-antarctic-ice/

Chris R.
December 13, 2012 11:18 am

grumpyoldmanuk completely nailed it. The press release is at war with itself.
If only 30-65 % of the mass gain from increased snowfall is balanced by increased loss, that
means the ice gains mass. Period.

4 eyes
December 13, 2012 1:49 pm

I read this a couple of times and can’t understand it. Based on the article It seems that if it stopped snowing in Antarctica the glaciers would grow ever and ever bigger? or am i meant to conclude that whatever happens the glaciers are all going to rush into the sea and we’ll all drown

Doug Proctor
December 13, 2012 3:48 pm

“Between 30 and 65 percent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall in Antarctica is countervailed by enhanced ice loss along the coastline”
As Penny on Big Bang Theory would say, “Holy crap on a cracker!”
I was a glaciology student. Okay, I have an edge. A very little edge. As Anthony says, the author of the above comment (at least) fails on the concept. Since the snowfall comes from the ocean (the first principle), 35 – 70% of the increased, held (short-term) snowfall means a LOWERING of sea-level.
The second principle of glaciology that appears lost on all climate warmists is that glaciers move because the accumulated weight (force) of ice causes the solid (ice) to become plastic and flow. All glaciers, ice masses that move, are by definition unstable: they will continue to “thin-out” until the weight (causing flowage) is equal to the resistive pressures of friction and crystalline rigidity. Glacial movement does not indicate climate change, warming weather at all, but the current result of an earlier, historical period in which the rate of mass additions exceeded the rate of melting, sublimation and plastic flow.
There is still a third principle of glaciology that is lost on climate warmists: that all glacial mass reductions are attributable to three processes:
1) plastic flowage that terminates in the ocean or large lakes (so that calving occurs and movement to warmer climes),
2) sublimation, and
3) melting.
All glacial mass increases are due to one process: snowfall.
Greenland and Antarctica lose glacial mass year-to-year ONLY IF the rate of loss is greater than the rate of gain. Of the three methods of ice mass, only two are in any way related to warming. Melting is an obvious result of warming, but as most of the continental ice volumes are in areas which are below zero for most of the year, you can easily determine the change of amount of ice potentially melted, IF YOU CONCLUDE that thermal conductivity of ice is low. Ratio delta ice melt = delta temp increase X ratio delta time above melting X 1/heat of solid-liquid state change.
I say, IF YOU CONCLUDE, because the second method of ice loss, increased plastic flowage to the sea, claimed by warmists to be significant, assumes a high thermal conductivity to ice. Only if the general ice mass has warmed can increases in flowrate be attributed to warming, but this consideration reduces the potential for melting (as heat is conducted into the lower zones rather than used to effect a state change). So plastic flowage and melting are opposing considerations, in that you cannot pump for one while pumping for the other. There is only so much energy around.
Sublimation, while impacted by warming, is only marginally impacted by warming when you are hovering around zero. Sublimation is only a real force when sunshine is strong under dry atmospheric conditions. The more you make water vapour rise, the less sublimation occurs, especially if you think more water vapour leads to more clouds (which reduces sunshine getting to the glacier).
With all the above considerations, what really causes loss of glacial mass is the non-deposition of replacement snow. Since the existing glacial flow is a function not of recent ice gain, but of historical gain, you must be very careful in attributing glacial net ice loss to current conditions: you first must determine that current snowfall is not significantly less than historical amounts.
I do not believe this has been determined. If winter precipitation has dropped below historical levels, then you have, like Kilamanjaro, a problem not of warming, but of precipitation sourcing.
So far I have heard absolutely zero increase in iceberg activity. The large shelves don’t count. They break off all the time, and do not contribute to sea-levels. We need to see icebergs increasing. And we still need to talk about replacement snow.

RACookPE1978
Editor
December 13, 2012 4:16 pm

“Glacier speed can vary from virtually at rest to a kilometer or more per year. On average, though, glaciers move at the laggardly pace of a couple hundred feet per year. In general, a heavier glacier moves quicker than a lighter one, a steep glacier quicker than a less steep one, a warmer glacier quicker than a cooler one.”
So, just how much glacier ice (deposited in the last 30 years of supposed global warming) is getting MOVED into the oceans around Antarctica? Sea ice – and Antarctic sea ice is newly frozen every year, meled every summer – avcerages 1-1.5 meters thick. So one square km of sea ice = 1000 meters x 1000 meters x 1 meter thick. 10^6 cubic meters of ice. A glacier is (perhaps, or at most) 30 meters thick when it calves off and falls in the ocean. (Glaciers – at their tips – are NOT 1 meter thick. Few are 10 meters thick.) Glaciers are the width of their spawning valley (maybe 1 km wide at the most) it is the massive ice caps that are 100 to 1000 km wide. And THOSE do not “flow” to the sea. They are static,rarely breaking off; and when they do break off, they don’t break apart and spread out. they stay in massive thick island of ice. Those “islands” of ice DON’T spread out and increase sea ice extents!
Seems to me that – at MOST – about a 30 km “length” of glacier valley “ice” could be moved to the coast, and almost all of that was ice that was created hundreds (thousands) of years ago and is getting “moved” by ice + compressed snow getting deposited on top of the old ice.
Now, if today’s sea ice is 1,000,000 square to 1,500,000 square kilometers LARGER than any previous records for antarctic sea ice, then – if as these “scientist” apparently want us to believe – that new sea ice is coming (largely ?) from glacier snow newly deposited on top of old glacier ice that is moving less than 1 km per year towards the ocean edge …..
Where is the “new” sea ice coming from ?
The numbers PROVE it is NOT able to come from the glaciers previously attached to the rocks and contient of Antarctica.

Robert Kral
December 13, 2012 6:33 pm

I guess these guys don’t understand the concept of a “push”.

Mickey Reno
December 13, 2012 6:57 pm

How smart do you have to be to assert that an increased ice flow that’s caused by a thicker, deeper, land-based ice sheet will raise sea levels? Seriously, I want to know how someone can make such an assertion.
My theory: years of public education grade inflation and University pH.D peddling are coming home to roost.

Tsk Tsk
December 13, 2012 9:13 pm

“Since snowfall on the ice masses of Antarctica takes water out of the global water cycle, the continent’s net contribution to sea-level rise could be negative during the next 100 years – this is what a number of global and regional models suggest. The new findings indicate that this effect to a large extent is offset by changes in the ice-flow dynamics.”
Models fighting models. I wonder if we can model the outcome of the discrepancy between the models…

Jimbo
December 14, 2012 9:20 am

On the subject of precipitation here’s news just in which could have some bearing on some global warming being blamed on some floods and intense rains.

“Reservoirs can make local flooding worse, says study”
“Researchers say that large man-made reservoirs can increase the intensity of rainfall and could affect flood defences.
The scientists found that rain patterns around bodies of water in Chile were much higher than in similar areas without them.
This “lake effect” could overwhelm flood defences which are often built without taking it into account.
The study has been accepted for publication in the journal Hydrology.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20663875

Berényi Péter
December 14, 2012 3:49 pm

The more you learn, the more you know
The more you know, the more you forget
The more you forget, the less you know

That must have been the first lesson they’ve learnt, but have already forgottent what it was about, so they reckon it’s related to snow, for a single letter should not matter much and that’s where the money comes from anyway. Is that clear?

December 15, 2012 10:41 pm

I understand it, the more the entire planet warms (only the planet has not continued to warm since the cold war ended), and the more ice from Antarctica that melts as it evaporates into the atmosphere then the more it falls back as snow and ice on Antarctica. I understand that! Why is it, if it’s too cold for snow does Antarctica have all that frozen water? Maybe it was so warm Antarctica gained a lot of snow? or maybe the cold temperatures freeze H20. I see a catch 22 on the horizon.

Billy Liar
December 18, 2012 5:50 am

Call me back when:
1. they have evidence of increased snowfall over a significant percentage of the Antarctic continent
and
2. they have RADARSAT evidence of increased stream velocities in the relevant Antarctic ice streams

richardscourtney
December 18, 2012 6:39 am

Doug Proctor:
re your post at December 13, 2012 at 3:48 pm.
That is an excellent summary. I write to draw attention to it in hope that this will increase the number who gain from reading your post.
Richard

Syl
December 18, 2012 6:52 am

Well, call me when they do studies of previous sea levels much higher than we have today. Call me when they go to California to study the visible high stands. Call me when they realize sea level was much higher than today before the last glaciation began. It seems to me that some ‘scientists’ believe that sea level should be a static thing.
Even a warmist I saw on tv a few weeks ago after Sandy said sea level would not be rising as quickly as previously thought but even a millimeter a year or so alarmed him and he said we ‘have to prepare’. They simply cannot let go.

Gail Combs
December 18, 2012 7:31 am

Syl says:
December 18, 2012 at 6:52 am
…..Even a warmist I saw on tv a few weeks ago after Sandy said sea level would not be rising as quickly as previously thought but even a millimeter a year or so alarmed him and he said we ‘have to prepare’. They simply cannot let go.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Boy is that evidence that they have ZERO math and science background. (A millimeter is about the same as three (female) fingernail thicknesses.) I am sure this guy thinks of a millimeter as about a foot or at least an inch (25.4 millimeters) or is hoping the audience is so ill-educated that THEY equate millimeters with meters or feet or at least inches .

Brian H
December 18, 2012 8:34 pm

Rivers are not in fact substantially fed by glaciers. So the whole disaster meme is a nullity.