From our WUWT.TV 24 hour broadcast answer to Al Gore’s dirty weather on November 14-15, 2012. Dr. Sebastian Lüning of Dr. Franz Vahrenholt are co-authors of the book “Die Kalt Sonne” which we previously reviewed here and here on WUWT. Here, in this interview and presentation, Lüning, who is a geologist by trade, explains how he was converted to climate skepticism by his own research.
It is a powerful demonstration of how people can come to understand just how flimsy the evidence is for catastrophic global warming, and is well worth your time to watch.
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Thank you Anthony! This (the solar affect on climate) is really to me, one of the most compelling areas of study.
Mario
Thanks for posting all these videos.
The two I’d really like to see are Marc Morano (Climate Depot) and Lord Christopher Monckton – both whom I understand were a part of WUWT-TV event. Any chance we might get their videos soon, Anthony..? Your readers outside of the States, who didn’t get to see their live appearances, would really appreciate it.
First rate presentation. It’s so unusual, and so honest, to hear a presenter acknowledge that they don’t have all the answers and to urge greater understanding.
I shall be buying Dr Lüning’s book when it is available in English.
Geology is not a trade it is a profession! Plumbers are tradesman.
Whilst there is no problem being a plumber, it pays well, scientists must be referred to as professionals. Well most of them anyway.
Interesting presentation…cooling over the next 30 years. Amazing how a huge body of evidence is being ignored by modellers and being replaced by the flakey hypotheiszed CO2-temp correlation. The IPCC really does look like a sham.
For serious common sense also watch the lecture at the Royal Society by Dr Luening’s partner Fritz Vahrenholt
http://www.thegwpf.org/vahrenholt-lecture/
Ed
“Dr. Sebastian Lüning of Dr. Franz Vahrenholt are co-authors of the book “Die Kalt Sonne””
Shouldn’t that be ” … AND Dr Franz Vahrenholt … “
Solar = Cyclical
MWP = Global
Rhamsdorf = Denial
Thanks Dr. Lüning and Anthony for a very fascinating presentation.
This study may relate to Anthony’s question on Lake Victoria: http://www.virtualacademia.com/pdf/cli222_234.pdf
Top notch presentation and great questions from Anthony made it even better.
Thanks again Anthony for putting this on and posting to Youtube; your passion and hard work are an inspiration.
The Parana River correlation to solar activity is striking in it relates to how much dryer climate can be during the upcoming solar inactivity. As well as other correlations in moisture that parallel the Parana River there should be serious preparation in advance of droughts driven by periods of diminished solar inactivity. Managing living in the cooler/warmer periods is one thing, lack of rain for crops/drinking is substantial.
Another great presentation!
Compelling stuff. Many thanks.
Regarding “cyclomania” and statistics: bear in mind that the purpose of many (if not most) methods of statistics is to smother small signals, including periodic signals. In many cases we don’t know what is noise and what is not, so we declare all of the unknowns to be of no value and navigate our data using filters that are by design insensitive to what could be important knowledge thrown away without any consideration, without even knowing it is there.
But what if the stuff we’re discarding is so obviously non-random that we don’t need statistics to see it?
I have transcribed a talk by my old-time mentor Simon Shnoll and put it out on YouTube as a poor man’s translation of his observations. Unfortunately, he does not speak English, so please turn on subtitles in the YouTube player (the leftmost icon in the bottom right, off by default):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkle618UJPY
I could post just the transcript, but it is a bit too squirrely for a written medium and there are some important visuals to go with it. If you are patient with this method of presentation, you will be rewarded with shocking new knowledge. It is about measuring things properly.
Dr. Luning says toward the end of the interview that presently, almost on a weekly basis, a paper is published confirming solar cycle observations, and so far none of them have found favor with the IPCC. Remarkable.
Side Bar Trivia:
German abbreviation: FLAK = Flieger Abwehr Kanone = Flyer defense cannon.
The term comes from World War II. Allied bomber crews coined it (flak) in describing the shells exploding around them (often times hitting their aircraft) while over their bombing targets, or in certain corridors, in Germany/German occupied Europe.
A very subtle irony is that the German abbreviation is for the GUNS firing at aircraft, i.e. CAUSE; while the English adoption of the term applies to the EFFECT of the guns…
Thank you Dr Luning and Anthony for making the guts of the story of solar influence on our climate so accessible. The slide with many different correlations from all over the globe makes it really clear that solar influence is global rather than regional.
Herr Doktor still seemed to give a nod to ‘C02ism’ at the final slide of his presentation……the final graph with the ridiculous IPCC curves and the more sane one at the bottom…..to me it seemed like the next 30 years or so were solar cycle correlated cooling and then eventually even this trace ‘takes off’ at some 1-1.5 C per doubling co2…why spend all that time saying the true drivers are not co2, the climate is correlated with soalr cycles, only to close with some graph that seems to depart from that idea, stating…well even though the 1-1.5C per doubling is far from catastrophic we will still ‘have to do something about it’….huh?….i guess even der Deutscher-Deniers must still do some mini-alamisms?? 1-1.5C per double is pure fantasy also. Thought it was a solid presentation otherwise.
Thanks, Anthony. One of the great fallacies we’ve heard purported is the apparent reluctance of the geological community to subscribe to the CAGW meme. I don’t hear their voice. Similarly, the engineers. I hear no dissent. Whilst they might talk loud, there’s long been a dispiriting acquiescence into dogma, dragged down within ever-increasing governmental largesse.
Throughout these WUWT-TV presentations it’s great to see proper and cogent scientifically-based counters, at least equally demanding of consideration. Unfortunately, the principle of ‘science’ in its best sense – empiricism – has been supplanted from within and corrupted by a relative few. It’s a fight, yes – but give me fifty years hence. The ‘method’ isn’t going away.
After watching the presentation, I tried adding sine waves with periods of 2300, 1000, and 500 years together in an attempt to get apparent peaks of around 1500 years. I could not find a combination that would do it, except by making the 500 year wave very strong, but that didn’t seem sporting, there were also two strong peaks intervening in the 1500 years. Is there some combination of phase shift and amplitude, maybe suggested by the spectral analysis, that would accomplish peaks at around 1500 years?
Leif, where are you? Shouldn’t you comment on this?
“Scuzza Man (@ScuzzaMan) says:
November 30, 2012 at 2:39 am
“Dr. Sebastian Lüning of Dr. Franz Vahrenholt are co-authors of the book “Die Kalt Sonne””
Shouldn’t that be ” … AND Dr Franz Vahrenholt … “
Not only that but “Die kaltE sonne..” if my German is correct.
Lake Victoria might be getting extra rain after the low Aswan dam was built.
Following their 1882 invasion and occupation of Egypt, the British began construction of the first dam across the Nile in 1898. Construction lasted until 1902, and it was opened on 10 December 1902, by HRH the Duke of Connaught and Strathearn. .
That would change the humidity levels over africa, I would think, and thus the precipitation and give a step function effect.
Chris:
The 1500 year figure is an average (actually 1470 for the glacial D-O cycles). The time between peaks or troughs vary for each interglacial Bond cycle. Also apparent within each Bond cycle are the signals of shorter-term solar cycles, ie 210, ~87, 22 & 11 years. When these coincide with the longer-term signals (1000, 2300 & 6000 years), ie are complementary or supplementary, then peaks occur.
Counter-trends appear within each warm & cold period, as for instance the pronounced Sui-Tang warm spell during the Dark Ages Cold Period after the Roman Warmth. It didn’t get as hot as the prior Roman or following Medieval peaks, but is noticeable in the record, arguably attributable to a Suess event (~210 year signal).
Since at latest the Minoan Warm Period (c. 3300 ya), the temperature peaks have been falling (ie, Roman warmth less than Minoan, Medieval less than Roman & Modern so far less than Medieval). One of the coming Bond Cycles (maybe even the next one) will be the last before the onset of the next glacial phase. Obviously, the Minoan-Roman, Roman-Medieval & Medieval-Modern cycle peaks average less than 1500 years, even if the Modern hasn’t peaked yet (which it might do after the solar variation-predicted coming multi-decadal cold snap akin to that prior to 1977).
For “vary” in prior, please read “varies”.
milodonharlani
I am very much aware of how sine waves work and build on each other, I use them every day at work. It is a very accurate method to model dry weather sewage flow. I also have no doubt that there is a combination that does work, since the spectral analysis presented in the video was created from a series with periodic peaks at roughly 1500 years.
Unless someone has experience with spectral analysis you are not going to convince them that you can produce periodic events at 1500 years without having a 1500 year cycle. They will be convinced only if you can show them the results of adding several specific waves and tell them the amplitudes and phase shifts. That information should be presented by the research: I don’t knowingly have access..
Many thanks for an outstanding presentation. I can’t wait to buy and read the English edition of the book. The link between solar activity and the global climate seems undeniable.
.
There’s one obvious point. Luning assumes that the one degree per doubling of CO2 applies to the climate system so that his predicted temperature eventually goes up towards the end of the century. Although Gore resorted to fraud in his demonstration, I assume that the one degree per doubling effect is genuine and can be demonstrated in the laboratory.
.
But what proof is there that this applies to the climate system? If it were true then it should be crystal clear in the ice cores going back almost a million years. But, as far as I’m aware, there is no evidence in the ice cores that CO2 had any effect on the temperature. The ice cores clearly show that CO2 follows the temperature by around 800 years. It’s almost as if AGW works in the laboratory but not in the Earth’s climate. If so, then this century is likely to be dominated by severe and prolonged global cooling.
Chris
Gene Selkov, Simon Shnoll’s finding that radioactive decay followed a pattern corresponding with certain extraterrestrial positions was an interesting point in a very informative multifaceted interview. Thank you for that link.
Sorry this is a bit off topic but I recall seeing on WUWT that a subset of the members of the US National Academy of Sciences did a magnificent critique of the notion that the issue of CO2 caused global warming is settled. But, try as I might , I have been unable to find it. Can anyone point me in the right direction.
. . Ted Swart. .
“The ice cores clearly show that CO2 follows the temperature by around 800 years.”
Maybe CO2 dilutes the water vapor to the point that CO2 actually cools the atmosphere, thus a cooler atmosphere has even less water vapor and accelerated cooling. That is what the ice core research could be indicating with the current sun/earth relationship.
Gene Selkov says: “…I have transcribed a talk by my old-time mentor Simon Shnoll and put it out on YouTube as a poor man’s translation of his observations…If you are patient with this method of presentation, you will be rewarded with shocking new knowledge. It is about measuring things properly.”
What a treasure! Acerbic irony and great wisdom. A man not afraid to say “I don’t know.” A pity the US can’t divert a few million towards that field of study. Oh, well, the money would probably corrupt the researchers, if they’re anything like the AGW crowd. What is the status of this work?
“But what proof is there that this applies to the climate system? If it were true then it should be crystal clear in the ice cores going back almost a million years. But, as far as I’m aware, there is no evidence in the ice cores that CO2 had any effect on the temperature. The ice cores clearly show that CO2 follows the temperature by around 800 years. It’s almost as if AGW works in the laboratory but not in the Earth’s climate. If so, then this century is likely to be dominated by severe and prolonged global cooling.” –Chris
Evolution of CO2 from the oceans by higher temperatures can be well simulated on a micro scale in the laboratory. The difference between theory and reality for that system is small; results can be easily adjusted to reflect any relevant physical differences. The greenhouse effect, on the other hand, being distributed throughout 7 miles of a complex, non-homogeneous atmosphere in which competing processes occur, with multiple negative feedbacks, can’t be similarly mimicked [though there were early attempts to do so, occasionally mentioned by others in various WUWT threads]. The difference between simple, lab-scale IR absorption by CO2 molecules and actual AGW is huge, not fully understood, and not easily corrected by models or any other method.
Bottom line: the mechanism for CO2 following temperature is well established. The putative mechanism for CO2 leading temperature is speculative at best, fictional at worst. AGW theory rests on a highly tenuous foundation.
It’s Fritz Vahrenholt, not “Franz”…
highflight56433 says:
November 30, 2012 at 1:14 pm
….Managing living in the cooler/warmer periods is one thing, lack of rain for crops/drinking is substantial.
____________________________________
The Australians may end up being thankful for those idle desalination plants. Mini-thorium nuclear and desalination plants for the Sahara, India southern USA and China may become necessary.
The fact the UK refuses to build more reservoirs and the USA is actively wiping out dams is absolutely idiotic.
When the fecal material hits the rotating blades due to global cooling/drought and idiotic CAGW/environmental policies have made things much worse, I would not want to be a well known activist or for that matter a politician. There are too many dangerous nutters out there.
(Please note I am a past member of Greenpeace, Sierra Club… There are reasonable environmental policies and then there are control freaks)
Gene Selkov says: @ November 30, 2012 at 3:22 pm
I could post just the transcript, but it is a bit too squirrely for a written medium and there are some important visuals to go with it. If you are patient with this method of presentation, you will be rewarded with shocking new knowledge. It is about measuring things properly.
________________________________
It is very hard to measure things properly. Ask any QC chemist who has worked in industry especially with new products.
Gail at 5:18pm – if you listen/read the entire presentation, you will discover that there are a couple of decades of reproducible data from various scientists with eye opening results which yearn for interpretation.
Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model
We conclude that the glacial 1,470-year climate cycles could have been triggered by solar forcing despite the absence of a 1,470-year solar cycle.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7065/abs/nature04121.html
Apply Anthony’s transistor analogy to that, insofar as the response of the elephant in the atmosphere’s salon (water vapour) goes. An uptick in CO2 switches on a more potent H2O response — in the opposite direction. Sort of a NOR gate. 😉