When bankers turn climatologists

From the world bank…sound the general alarm! (sound of klaxons) But see the data at the end.

4-degrees briefing for the World Bank: The risks of a future without climate policy

Humankind’s emissions of greenhouse gases are breaking new records every year. Hence we’re on a path towards 4-degree global warming probably as soon as by the end of this century. This would mean a world of risks beyond the experience of our civilization – including heat waves, especially in the tropics, a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people, and regional yield failures impacting global food security. These are some of the results of a report for the World Bank, conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics in Berlin. The poorest in the world are those that will be hit hardest, making development without climate policy almost impossible, the researchers conclude.

4-degrees briefing for the World Bank: The risks of a future without climate policy

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim. Foto: Simone D. McCourtie / World Bank

“The planetary machinery tends to be jumpy, this is to respond disproportionately to disruptions that come with the manmade greenhouse effect,” PIK’s director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber points out. “If we venture far beyond the 2-degree guardrail, towards 4 degrees, we risk crossing tipping points in the Earth system.” This could be the case with coral reefs which face collapse under unabated global warming, or with the Greenland ice sheet. To melt the ice sheet would take thousands of years, yet this might be an irreversible process that could start soon. “The only way to avoid this is to break with the fossil-fuel-age patterns of production and consumption,” says Schellnhuber.

Climate impacts: Heat waves, sea-level rise, yield failures

Already today impacts of climate change are observed. The Russian heat wave in 2010, according to preliminary estimates, produced a death toll of several thousand, annual crop failure of about 25%, and economic losses of about US$15 billion. Extreme events like this at 4 degrees global warming would become “the new normal” in some parts of the world, according to the report. In the tropics, the coolest months at the end of the century are likely to be substantially warmer than the warmest months today.

Sea level, under this scenario, would rise by 50 to 100 centimeters within this century, and more so in coming centuries. The rate of rise varies from one region to the other, depending on sea currents and other factors. Projections suggest that sea-level rise will be strongest in countries like the Philippines, Mexico, and India.

Within economic sectors, too, tipping effects with rapidly increasing damages can occur, for instance in agriculture. Already, observations showed that important cereals are sensitive to temperature increases passing certain thresholds, resulting in large-scale yield failure. Changes in the water cycle can aggravate this, when droughts occur or flooding affects farmed land.

World Bank President Kim: “A 4-degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided”

“The report draws from the current state of science and delivers new analysis of heat waves and regional sea-level rise, so of course there remain some uncertainties,” says William Hare, co-founder of Climate Analytics in Berlin and guest scientist at PIK. “We work with that by defining risk as potential damage multiplied with the probability – a rather improbable event can be a great risk if its impacts are huge.”

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim who was nominated early this year by US President Barack Obama and assumed his new position in July, has personally been briefed on the 4-degrees report by Schellnhuber some weeks ago in Washington D.C.. “A 4-degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided – we need to hold warming below 2 degrees,” President Kim now said in a statement. “Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. Climate change is one of the biggest single challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest.”

Executive Summary

Full Report

Quotes (approved for attribution) from global leaders on the World Bank “Turn Down The Heat” report and the climate challenge

==============================================================

Tom Nelson points out this tweet from “The Carbon Brief””.

Twitter / carbonbrief: The World Bank 4 degree report …

The World Bank 4 degree report in full here: http://ow.ly/foBEX  and summary for policymakers here: http://ow.ly/foBGN

From the summary:

This report spells out what the world would be like if it warmed by 4 degrees Celsius, which is what scientists are nearly unanimously predicting by the end of the century, without serious policy changes….The science is unequivocal that humans are the cause of global warming, and major changes are already being observed: global mean warming is 0.8°C above pre industrial levels; oceans have warmed by 0.09°C since the 1950s and are acidifying; sea levels rose by about 20 cm since pre-industrial times and are now rising at 3.2 cm per decade;

.09 degrees? That’s still in the noise band of the measurements…only bankers would tell us we are a few pennies off and this will lead to catastrophe.

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TRBixler

Tipping point to be met. Do not cry for me Argentina, world Fascism is achievable.

Chris @NJ_Snow_Fan

All Are trying to cash in on BS like Al Gore. Al Gore is already taking donations( like he needs to take more money from feared followers, whats his cut of $24? $20 of each?)for next years show$24 for 24 hours. I guess he is trying to get all money he can before 2013 tax year starts. Let’s see how many trips around the world he takes next year while burning all that jet fuel.

Raven00

when meteorologists turn bad…

Tom Jones

If you need some morning humor, read the quotes section. It is truly awesome. The AGW folks are just going to the mat. I just hope that science is not too badly wounded in all this.

Perhaps along with the PDF report, there seems to be a relatively new supporting data/fact/opinion World Bank Climate Change website called:
Climate Change Knowledge Portal (Beta)
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm
with this rather broad disclaimer:

Disclaimer: Information in this screening tool is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or scientific advice or service. The World Bank makes no warranties or representations, express or implied as to the accuracy or reliability of this tool or the data contained therein. ….

In other words: “We’re going to scare you silly to rob you blind. But don’t hold us to anything we write.”

Mike Bromley the Kurd

It never seems to reach a limit. It’s as though they are hell-bent to drown out their own droning tome. As more and more people tune out, the louder they become. Now, the BANK, of all institutions, is screaming POVERTY!!!!…and offering a way out, I suppose by sacrificing trillions on a nonexistant boondoggle while the starving, thirsty, diseased masses gawk in horror at this ostensive display or worldly good. Lots of photo ops with Bono and Daryl, and as the years go by, the increasing din from McKibben’s creaking knuckles as he gollumizes his hands in a fit of weepy wringing. What an image. Or set of images. But this is serious stuff, folks! Guess a disaster, and bash people over the head with it. How’s that workin’ fer ya?
Brother….!

Ufsi

Again it all hinges on the age old sentence. “the observed warming cannot be explained by natural factors alone and thus can largely be attributed to anthropogenic influence”
Sounds almost rational and reasonable until you discover how little we actually know about the various natural factors.

John West

“To melt the ice sheet would take thousands of years, yet this might be an irreversible process”
Melting is irreversible?
“The only way to avoid this is to break with the fossil-fuel-age patterns of production and consumption,”
There’s at least a dozen different ways just to get from my house to work and yet there’s only one way to “save the planet”?
Why not just abandon the age old pattern of Production (Photosynthesis) and Consumption (Respiration)? That should fix it.
Alarmist drivel.

“Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. ”
Um…sorry, the world my children are going to inherit is already a completely different world than what we were living in yesterday. And it isn’t a good thing, and while it has something to do with “climate change” it has nothing to do with the actual temperature of our planet or any possible side effect of it.

It seems to me that international bankers should be more interested in the effects of attempts to control anthropogenic emissions on world economics. Oh, I forgot. They hope to control world economics by using international controls on the burning of fossil fuels.

Gary Pearse

Why did they go to PIK? Even IPCC doesn’t make it this hot. I guess they shopped around for a consulting organization that would give them 4 degrees. Maybe it was in the terms of reference.

scadsobees

“Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. ”
The world my children will inherit is already completely different than the world that I inherited. This is NOT a good thing, and while it has everything to do with “climate change” it has nothing to do with the temperature of the earth or any real or imagined side effects from it.

Chris @NJ_Snow_Fan

Anthony can you post the link to the 4 degree drop in temps article from last week again? Had to do with sunspot cycle.
So one says up 4 and one says down 4. I say from real data we are going down rather then up. Ice will keep melting fast in summer unless china cleans the stout from emissions, high altitude BC emissions are cut and we do not get more volcano eruptions like we did two years ago in N Hem.
From tests I know is if it snows with more then normal amounts of Black carbon, ash or particles in the winters snow fall and summer rains on snow/ice. Snow & ice will melt up to 5 times faster then if none. High altitude Jet exhaust BC is one of main snow smelters in N hem cap is my feeling.

H.R.

Well…. maybe… it could, you know…. it just might… assuming…
“Just give us all your money and we’ll make sure nothing bad happens.”
CO2-based CAGW… the new protection racket.

Chris B

Is that 4 degrees C, or F? Not that it matters for a SWAG. Just curious.

jgmccabe

What gets me in this article is the suggestion that, even if all this climate change nonsense were true, the “new normal” would continue to cause massive economic losses year on year while the Russians (e.g) just sit back and let it happen rather than diversifying or adapting to the change.
What utter drivel; what kind of retards are these people?

biff33

The conjuring of scary scenarios is accelerating.

ConfusedPhoton

We should have a “Gore Award” for the person who says the stupidest thing in climate science – problem would be too many nominations.
We could send them a pretty certificate for their office wall and then they could pretend they were Nobel Laureates.

Richdo

Banksters and Climate thugs; what could possibly go wrong?
/sarc

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7

Even under the most alarmist projections, the serious bad effects of “global warming” won’t happen until long after major world economies have collapsed under persistent over-spending and wasteful central planning decisions. Does anyone even nominally rational think Greece is going to survive long enough to be troubled by rising sea levels?

Vell thats when they definitely earns the epitet “Banksters”

What is it with Koreans? They have Kim Jong-un, Ban Ki-moon and now this guy Jim Yong Kim, all obsessed with trying to turn out the light for ordinary people. Although all in their own peculiar way.

Here’s the link to the Bloomberg story on this item:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-19/globe-risks-cataclysmic-changes-from-warming-world-bank-says.html
===========
@ Chris: It’s 4 degrees C.

MarkW

We are releasing CO2 at an ever increasing rate. Yet for some reason there has been no increase in temperature for 17 years.

Paul Matthews

Let’s think, who would you trust to provide a reliable, honest, accurate account of climate change?
That’s it – bankers!

MarkW

jgmccabe says:
November 19, 2012 at 7:52 am.
What utter drivel; what kind of retards are these people?

Proffessional ones, apparently.

Jimbo

What utter bollocks.
sarc on/

World Bank President Kim: “A 4-degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided”

And Kim is correct. Lets get in some windmills and our problems are solved.
……………hang on a cotton pickin minute. What’s this we see in Germany? Home of the PIK.

Germany’s Massive Renewable Energy System Puts Out Only 7% Of It’s Rated Capacity in November!
http://notrickszone.com/2012/11/17/germanys-massive-renewable-energy-system-puts-out-only-7-of-its-rated-capacity-in-november/

Kim later said:

“Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today.

When he really meant:

“Action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today.

Children won’t know what electricity is. It will be a rare and exciting utility. ;(

davidmhoffer

jgmccabe;
What utter drivel; what kind of retards are these people?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The kind that understand politics. Soon you will hear politicians saying things like “even the World Bank says….blah blah blah” when trying to justify carbon taxes. My understanding is that the current head of the World Bank obtained his position in large part due to lobbying from Obama. See how one hand washes the other? Right after the election the Obama admin starts floating the idea of carbon taxes, the World Bank announces a new study, and being the World Bank, don’t have the stigma of the discredited IPCC sticking to their opinions. Watch for the NGO’s to trumped this to no end at Doha.
Not to mention that the “solution” will be some financial arrangement where “polluters” pay some large amount of money into some fund which is then used to compensate “victims”. Any guess who will get to manage that fund? For a slight “management” fee?
When politicians and bankers try and sell you a tax on the premise that it is good for you, grasp your wallet tightly and don’t let go.

Kev-in-Uk

So – if the banks are so concerned – why don’t they sart by giving ALL of their annual profits direct to governments to use for AGW mitigation. After all, their profits ulimately come from the people – why don’t they give it back to the people to help mitigate the impending doom?

Eimear Dywer

And they say we are in bed with big money, now look who is in bed with the world bank.
Kim’s statement also contains the “97% of scientists” rubbish, enough said.

tadchem

The ‘tipping point’ is now somewhere beyond 4°? I though (we HAVE been told!) that the tipping point had already been passed.
“The oceans are acidifying?” Where? The pH of sea water varies considerably with location, but the bulk of the sea *surface* water (the only region for which we have anywhere near a data set that is extensive enough to be considered a ‘survey’) has a pH in the weakly alkaline ‘buffer’ range (8.0 to 8.15) of the bicarbonate system: http://www.earthlyissues.com/oceanacid.htm
Increasing CO2 content merely increases the buffer capacity of the system and provides additional bicarbonate resources for the growth of marine life such as plankton and coral.

Mike McMillan

Four degrees would put us on a par with the Eemian interglacial, which tried but didn’t completely succeed in melting Greenland before this last ice age hit. Maybe we’ll have better luck.
Then there’s that sea level rise, but U of Colorado can fix it with their glacial isostatic adjustment, which is accelerating at an unprecedented pace.
That Potsdam Institute has shown up here quite a few times. Wonder who’s funding them?

James at 48

Well there are true believers in the innermost circles in that org. I know this from personal connections. This is no surprise.

AlexS

World Bank. IMF, OECD are all a dump for unemployed statist politicians so what is the surprise?

outtheback

0.8 degr C up since pre industrial times. (No mention of the lack of increase for the last 15 or so years)
So that is all for an increase in CO2 of 33% since pre industrial times, not bad.
Sea level is “already” increasing by 3.2 cm per decade (that sounds bad). That makes it 3.2 mm per year ( that makes it sound like nothing to worry about) and that is the average for the last century and plenty of indications that it is slowing down.
Oceans warming by all of 0.09 C, that is the problem when you get more accurate equipment doing the testing.
Does the world bank now have shares in solar power companies? In a roundabout sense they do I guess, perhaps that is what is driving this.

HelmutU

Always remember, what prof.Edenhofer of the Potsdam based PIK siad in rthe Swiss newspaper NZZ: It has nothing to do with climate. It is only for redributing the wealth from the industrialised nations to the others.

G P Hanner

…and the propaganda machine hums on.

john robertson

The poor are already suffering, world bank policies mean African nations can not borrow from world bank organs to build coal fired power stations, hydro electric dams are held up and of course the IMF is still collecting interest on money that never existed.
Without reliable electricity supply civilized life as we know it is impossible.
4 degrees is a safe bet, if kyoto had been implemented, these same politicians would be bragging about how the global temperatures are steady or falling.See we fixed global warming, ect.
To me CAGW/CC/Whatever its called this week, is eugenics rearing its ugly head again. the damage is disproportionately done to nonwhite populations and population control is the unspoken plan. Far too many of the people I have challenged on this nonsense acknowledge that they believe there are too many people on this planet, that population is their primary fear, how if everyone had our lifestyle the planet is doomed. But they are not willing to hold their own breath until their problem with carbon dioxide emissions goes away. Yet if I do not share their hysteria its because I don’t care for the poor? Well like the useful idiots of the past, if the alarmed ones succeed, we will all be poor and angry together. Most amazingly there is widespread acknowledgement that CO2 emission reductions will do nothing, but its important to get off our evil oil addiction. And that this belief is the best science not a new religion.
How does it go ,there is a season….

Marco

97% of the banks agree…

Adam Gallon

Ah, Bankers, sorry, misread that for a minute!

@AlexS – “unemployed [???]” statist politicians? Hardly. They are employed as “politician emeritus” with portfolio and without the pesky need to be elected.

Chris NJ_Snow_Fan

I forgot the most important part of what MOST (Not Al Gore and company)have been saying about global climate change and warming IF, IF, IF, IF, IF, IF, IF IF & IF. Well if IF happens and IF happens and so on. I say, Well IF the sun goes into a very quiet period (Started in 2008) IT could start a new ice age.
The thing that is sad is the leaders that are suppose to guide people in government around the world. The leaders are not suppose to say things that are not backed by data and scare people so they can get rich off them. Now Al Gore has said there is no IF, it has already happened. I guess he is the only smart one in the room already cashing & cashed in (Shows, Talks ,Appearances,Donations, Donations, Donations for future show one year away, T-shirts from china?)and trying to keep scheme going for the ones he has trained. Is that why President Obama made Misleading and false comments (acordcing to data global temp charts I have seen)last week about climate change with temps the past 10 years?
I know many people who are just fed, up including my self. Sorry for my venting going on

Markus

This study is from PIK in Germany, home of Team member Rahmstorf (no need to say anything more), Schellnhuber and Edenhofer, the guy who was in charge for the IPCC report about renewables featuring prominently a Greenpeace lead author’s study.
German climate alarmisim has successfully spread its influence beyond the German borders,
Rahmstorf is Hockey Stick Team member, and his group highly connected with the Swiss, now leading IPCC AR5.
Schellnhuber, advisor of the German chancellor and the EU, had huge influence on the British as a director of the Tyndal Centre from 2001-2005, with some details rather disturbing:
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/11/29/schellnhuber-and-the-tyndall-centre.html
That the World Bank selects them for their study, tells you a lot about the World Bank.

Louis

“The poorest in the world are those that will be hit hardest, making development without climate policy almost impossible, the researchers conclude.”

They completely ignore the fact that development with climate policy will be completely impossible.

AlexS

@AlexS – “unemployed [???]” statist politicians? Hardly. They are employed as “politician emeritus” with portfolio and without the pesky need to be elected.
Okay. Point taken i should correct then:
World Bank. IMF, OECD are all a dump for unelectable or in a career iatos statist politicians so what is the surprise?

Chris @NJ_Snow_Fan

Sick Al Gore just tweeted report ten mins as A frightening new @WorldBank report on the climate crisis describes a “doomsday scenario” for the world’s poor,, already has over 100 retweets https://twitter.com/algore
Slot machine jack pot for Al Gore donations

Louis

“…we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations”

In the United States alone, we charge over a trillion dollars a year to the credit cards of future generations. Does the World Bank want to take action to reduce this debt burden? No, not at all. Instead, they want to increase spending in a vain attempt to reduce the impacts of climate change that may or may not happen next century and may or may not be more harmful than beneficial. A rapidly accelerating public debt is a clear threat to future generations. But this certain threat they choose to ignore to tilt at windmills.

Tom O

I won’t pretend to speak for the rest of the world, but in the US, the baby boomer years were the last of the well educated years in this country. Since then, the education system has failed miserably, thus generating literally generations of undereducated people. The “failure” of humanity thus falls on those in the “boomer” category since they are practically the only ones that are intelligent and educated enough to see the farce of what is going on, and even though we try to point it out, we still end up the scapegoats. I will take that mantle to the grave – hopefully not too soon, of course – and will feel sorry for those that cannot think for themselves because there has always been the media to do their thinking for them, can’t do math because there always has been calculators, and can’t think beyond their loins and smart phones. We created a world wasted on those incapable of understanding if there is one sure thing in this world it’s that you can’t ever count on it being the same tomorrow as it is today. All things change, climate included, and history, which they prefer to ignore, proves that fact.

William Nies

Is this a science website? Sounds like a bar-room. How about some explicit counter-arguments , references and sources? Let’s grow up!

From the article: “The planetary machinery tends to be jumpy, this is to respond disproportionately to disruptions that come with the manmade greenhouse effect,” PIK’s director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber points out.”
Is this the same Herr Schellnhuber who doesn’t seem to care much for democracy and human rights?
http://notrickszone.com/2011/03/29/another-german-will-soon-unveil-a-master-plan-for-a-transformation-of-society/
Where in German history have we seen someone before who thought like that? Hmm. Now let me think……..