From the world bank…sound the general alarm! (sound of klaxons) But see the data at the end.
4-degrees briefing for the World Bank: The risks of a future without climate policy
Humankind’s emissions of greenhouse gases are breaking new records every year. Hence we’re on a path towards 4-degree global warming probably as soon as by the end of this century. This would mean a world of risks beyond the experience of our civilization – including heat waves, especially in the tropics, a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people, and regional yield failures impacting global food security. These are some of the results of a report for the World Bank, conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics in Berlin. The poorest in the world are those that will be hit hardest, making development without climate policy almost impossible, the researchers conclude.
“The planetary machinery tends to be jumpy, this is to respond disproportionately to disruptions that come with the manmade greenhouse effect,” PIK’s director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber points out. “If we venture far beyond the 2-degree guardrail, towards 4 degrees, we risk crossing tipping points in the Earth system.” This could be the case with coral reefs which face collapse under unabated global warming, or with the Greenland ice sheet. To melt the ice sheet would take thousands of years, yet this might be an irreversible process that could start soon. “The only way to avoid this is to break with the fossil-fuel-age patterns of production and consumption,” says Schellnhuber.
Climate impacts: Heat waves, sea-level rise, yield failures
Already today impacts of climate change are observed. The Russian heat wave in 2010, according to preliminary estimates, produced a death toll of several thousand, annual crop failure of about 25%, and economic losses of about US$15 billion. Extreme events like this at 4 degrees global warming would become “the new normal” in some parts of the world, according to the report. In the tropics, the coolest months at the end of the century are likely to be substantially warmer than the warmest months today.
Sea level, under this scenario, would rise by 50 to 100 centimeters within this century, and more so in coming centuries. The rate of rise varies from one region to the other, depending on sea currents and other factors. Projections suggest that sea-level rise will be strongest in countries like the Philippines, Mexico, and India.
Within economic sectors, too, tipping effects with rapidly increasing damages can occur, for instance in agriculture. Already, observations showed that important cereals are sensitive to temperature increases passing certain thresholds, resulting in large-scale yield failure. Changes in the water cycle can aggravate this, when droughts occur or flooding affects farmed land.
World Bank President Kim: “A 4-degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided”
“The report draws from the current state of science and delivers new analysis of heat waves and regional sea-level rise, so of course there remain some uncertainties,” says William Hare, co-founder of Climate Analytics in Berlin and guest scientist at PIK. “We work with that by defining risk as potential damage multiplied with the probability – a rather improbable event can be a great risk if its impacts are huge.”
World Bank President Jim Yong Kim who was nominated early this year by US President Barack Obama and assumed his new position in July, has personally been briefed on the 4-degrees report by Schellnhuber some weeks ago in Washington D.C.. “A 4-degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided – we need to hold warming below 2 degrees,” President Kim now said in a statement. “Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. Climate change is one of the biggest single challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest.”
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Tom Nelson points out this tweet from “The Carbon Brief””.
Twitter / carbonbrief: The World Bank 4 degree report …
The World Bank 4 degree report in full here: http://ow.ly/foBEX and summary for policymakers here: http://ow.ly/foBGN
From the summary:
This report spells out what the world would be like if it warmed by 4 degrees Celsius, which is what scientists are nearly unanimously predicting by the end of the century, without serious policy changes….The science is unequivocal that humans are the cause of global warming, and major changes are already being observed: global mean warming is 0.8°C above pre industrial levels; oceans have warmed by 0.09°C since the 1950s and are acidifying; sea levels rose by about 20 cm since pre-industrial times and are now rising at 3.2 cm per decade;
.09 degrees? That’s still in the noise band of the measurements…only bankers would tell us we are a few pennies off and this will lead to catastrophe.
Tipping point to be met. Do not cry for me Argentina, world Fascism is achievable.
All Are trying to cash in on BS like Al Gore. Al Gore is already taking donations( like he needs to take more money from feared followers, whats his cut of $24? $20 of each?)for next years show$24 for 24 hours. I guess he is trying to get all money he can before 2013 tax year starts. Let’s see how many trips around the world he takes next year while burning all that jet fuel.
when meteorologists turn bad…
If you need some morning humor, read the quotes section. It is truly awesome. The AGW folks are just going to the mat. I just hope that science is not too badly wounded in all this.
Perhaps along with the PDF report, there seems to be a relatively new supporting data/fact/opinion World Bank Climate Change website called:
Climate Change Knowledge Portal (Beta)
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm
with this rather broad disclaimer:
In other words: “We’re going to scare you silly to rob you blind. But don’t hold us to anything we write.”
It never seems to reach a limit. It’s as though they are hell-bent to drown out their own droning tome. As more and more people tune out, the louder they become. Now, the BANK, of all institutions, is screaming POVERTY!!!!…and offering a way out, I suppose by sacrificing trillions on a nonexistant boondoggle while the starving, thirsty, diseased masses gawk in horror at this ostensive display or worldly good. Lots of photo ops with Bono and Daryl, and as the years go by, the increasing din from McKibben’s creaking knuckles as he gollumizes his hands in a fit of weepy wringing. What an image. Or set of images. But this is serious stuff, folks! Guess a disaster, and bash people over the head with it. How’s that workin’ fer ya?
Brother….!
Again it all hinges on the age old sentence. “the observed warming cannot be explained by natural factors alone and thus can largely be attributed to anthropogenic influence”
Sounds almost rational and reasonable until you discover how little we actually know about the various natural factors.
“To melt the ice sheet would take thousands of years, yet this might be an irreversible process”
Melting is irreversible?
“The only way to avoid this is to break with the fossil-fuel-age patterns of production and consumption,”
There’s at least a dozen different ways just to get from my house to work and yet there’s only one way to “save the planet”?
Why not just abandon the age old pattern of Production (Photosynthesis) and Consumption (Respiration)? That should fix it.
Alarmist drivel.
“Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. ”
Um…sorry, the world my children are going to inherit is already a completely different world than what we were living in yesterday. And it isn’t a good thing, and while it has something to do with “climate change” it has nothing to do with the actual temperature of our planet or any possible side effect of it.
It seems to me that international bankers should be more interested in the effects of attempts to control anthropogenic emissions on world economics. Oh, I forgot. They hope to control world economics by using international controls on the burning of fossil fuels.
Why did they go to PIK? Even IPCC doesn’t make it this hot. I guess they shopped around for a consulting organization that would give them 4 degrees. Maybe it was in the terms of reference.
“Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. ”
The world my children will inherit is already completely different than the world that I inherited. This is NOT a good thing, and while it has everything to do with “climate change” it has nothing to do with the temperature of the earth or any real or imagined side effects from it.
Anthony can you post the link to the 4 degree drop in temps article from last week again? Had to do with sunspot cycle.
So one says up 4 and one says down 4. I say from real data we are going down rather then up. Ice will keep melting fast in summer unless china cleans the stout from emissions, high altitude BC emissions are cut and we do not get more volcano eruptions like we did two years ago in N Hem.
From tests I know is if it snows with more then normal amounts of Black carbon, ash or particles in the winters snow fall and summer rains on snow/ice. Snow & ice will melt up to 5 times faster then if none. High altitude Jet exhaust BC is one of main snow smelters in N hem cap is my feeling.
Well…. maybe… it could, you know…. it just might… assuming…
“Just give us all your money and we’ll make sure nothing bad happens.”
CO2-based CAGW… the new protection racket.
Is that 4 degrees C, or F? Not that it matters for a SWAG. Just curious.
What gets me in this article is the suggestion that, even if all this climate change nonsense were true, the “new normal” would continue to cause massive economic losses year on year while the Russians (e.g) just sit back and let it happen rather than diversifying or adapting to the change.
What utter drivel; what kind of retards are these people?
The conjuring of scary scenarios is accelerating.
We should have a “Gore Award” for the person who says the stupidest thing in climate science – problem would be too many nominations.
We could send them a pretty certificate for their office wall and then they could pretend they were Nobel Laureates.
Banksters and Climate thugs; what could possibly go wrong?
/sarc
Even under the most alarmist projections, the serious bad effects of “global warming” won’t happen until long after major world economies have collapsed under persistent over-spending and wasteful central planning decisions. Does anyone even nominally rational think Greece is going to survive long enough to be troubled by rising sea levels?
Vell thats when they definitely earns the epitet “Banksters”
What is it with Koreans? They have Kim Jong-un, Ban Ki-moon and now this guy Jim Yong Kim, all obsessed with trying to turn out the light for ordinary people. Although all in their own peculiar way.
Here’s the link to the Bloomberg story on this item:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-19/globe-risks-cataclysmic-changes-from-warming-world-bank-says.html
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@ Chris: It’s 4 degrees C.
We are releasing CO2 at an ever increasing rate. Yet for some reason there has been no increase in temperature for 17 years.
Let’s think, who would you trust to provide a reliable, honest, accurate account of climate change?
That’s it – bankers!
jgmccabe says:
November 19, 2012 at 7:52 am.
What utter drivel; what kind of retards are these people?
—
Proffessional ones, apparently.
What utter bollocks.
sarc on/
And Kim is correct. Lets get in some windmills and our problems are solved.
……………hang on a cotton pickin minute. What’s this we see in Germany? Home of the PIK.
jgmccabe;
What utter drivel; what kind of retards are these people?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The kind that understand politics. Soon you will hear politicians saying things like “even the World Bank says….blah blah blah” when trying to justify carbon taxes. My understanding is that the current head of the World Bank obtained his position in large part due to lobbying from Obama. See how one hand washes the other? Right after the election the Obama admin starts floating the idea of carbon taxes, the World Bank announces a new study, and being the World Bank, don’t have the stigma of the discredited IPCC sticking to their opinions. Watch for the NGO’s to trumped this to no end at Doha.
Not to mention that the “solution” will be some financial arrangement where “polluters” pay some large amount of money into some fund which is then used to compensate “victims”. Any guess who will get to manage that fund? For a slight “management” fee?
When politicians and bankers try and sell you a tax on the premise that it is good for you, grasp your wallet tightly and don’t let go.
So – if the banks are so concerned – why don’t they sart by giving ALL of their annual profits direct to governments to use for AGW mitigation. After all, their profits ulimately come from the people – why don’t they give it back to the people to help mitigate the impending doom?
And they say we are in bed with big money, now look who is in bed with the world bank.
Kim’s statement also contains the “97% of scientists” rubbish, enough said.
The ‘tipping point’ is now somewhere beyond 4°? I though (we HAVE been told!) that the tipping point had already been passed.
“The oceans are acidifying?” Where? The pH of sea water varies considerably with location, but the bulk of the sea *surface* water (the only region for which we have anywhere near a data set that is extensive enough to be considered a ‘survey’) has a pH in the weakly alkaline ‘buffer’ range (8.0 to 8.15) of the bicarbonate system: http://www.earthlyissues.com/oceanacid.htm
Increasing CO2 content merely increases the buffer capacity of the system and provides additional bicarbonate resources for the growth of marine life such as plankton and coral.
Four degrees would put us on a par with the Eemian interglacial, which tried but didn’t completely succeed in melting Greenland before this last ice age hit. Maybe we’ll have better luck.
Then there’s that sea level rise, but U of Colorado can fix it with their glacial isostatic adjustment, which is accelerating at an unprecedented pace.
That Potsdam Institute has shown up here quite a few times. Wonder who’s funding them?
Well there are true believers in the innermost circles in that org. I know this from personal connections. This is no surprise.
World Bank. IMF, OECD are all a dump for unemployed statist politicians so what is the surprise?
0.8 degr C up since pre industrial times. (No mention of the lack of increase for the last 15 or so years)
So that is all for an increase in CO2 of 33% since pre industrial times, not bad.
Sea level is “already” increasing by 3.2 cm per decade (that sounds bad). That makes it 3.2 mm per year ( that makes it sound like nothing to worry about) and that is the average for the last century and plenty of indications that it is slowing down.
Oceans warming by all of 0.09 C, that is the problem when you get more accurate equipment doing the testing.
Does the world bank now have shares in solar power companies? In a roundabout sense they do I guess, perhaps that is what is driving this.
Always remember, what prof.Edenhofer of the Potsdam based PIK siad in rthe Swiss newspaper NZZ: It has nothing to do with climate. It is only for redributing the wealth from the industrialised nations to the others.
…and the propaganda machine hums on.
The poor are already suffering, world bank policies mean African nations can not borrow from world bank organs to build coal fired power stations, hydro electric dams are held up and of course the IMF is still collecting interest on money that never existed.
Without reliable electricity supply civilized life as we know it is impossible.
4 degrees is a safe bet, if kyoto had been implemented, these same politicians would be bragging about how the global temperatures are steady or falling.See we fixed global warming, ect.
To me CAGW/CC/Whatever its called this week, is eugenics rearing its ugly head again. the damage is disproportionately done to nonwhite populations and population control is the unspoken plan. Far too many of the people I have challenged on this nonsense acknowledge that they believe there are too many people on this planet, that population is their primary fear, how if everyone had our lifestyle the planet is doomed. But they are not willing to hold their own breath until their problem with carbon dioxide emissions goes away. Yet if I do not share their hysteria its because I don’t care for the poor? Well like the useful idiots of the past, if the alarmed ones succeed, we will all be poor and angry together. Most amazingly there is widespread acknowledgement that CO2 emission reductions will do nothing, but its important to get off our evil oil addiction. And that this belief is the best science not a new religion.
How does it go ,there is a season….
97% of the banks agree…
Ah, Bankers, sorry, misread that for a minute!
@AlexS – “unemployed [???]” statist politicians? Hardly. They are employed as “politician emeritus” with portfolio and without the pesky need to be elected.
I forgot the most important part of what MOST (Not Al Gore and company)have been saying about global climate change and warming IF, IF, IF, IF, IF, IF, IF IF & IF. Well if IF happens and IF happens and so on. I say, Well IF the sun goes into a very quiet period (Started in 2008) IT could start a new ice age.
The thing that is sad is the leaders that are suppose to guide people in government around the world. The leaders are not suppose to say things that are not backed by data and scare people so they can get rich off them. Now Al Gore has said there is no IF, it has already happened. I guess he is the only smart one in the room already cashing & cashed in (Shows, Talks ,Appearances,Donations, Donations, Donations for future show one year away, T-shirts from china?)and trying to keep scheme going for the ones he has trained. Is that why President Obama made Misleading and false comments (acordcing to data global temp charts I have seen)last week about climate change with temps the past 10 years?
I know many people who are just fed, up including my self. Sorry for my venting going on
This study is from PIK in Germany, home of Team member Rahmstorf (no need to say anything more), Schellnhuber and Edenhofer, the guy who was in charge for the IPCC report about renewables featuring prominently a Greenpeace lead author’s study.
German climate alarmisim has successfully spread its influence beyond the German borders,
Rahmstorf is Hockey Stick Team member, and his group highly connected with the Swiss, now leading IPCC AR5.
Schellnhuber, advisor of the German chancellor and the EU, had huge influence on the British as a director of the Tyndal Centre from 2001-2005, with some details rather disturbing:
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/11/29/schellnhuber-and-the-tyndall-centre.html
That the World Bank selects them for their study, tells you a lot about the World Bank.
“The poorest in the world are those that will be hit hardest, making development without climate policy almost impossible, the researchers conclude.”
—
They completely ignore the fact that development with climate policy will be completely impossible.
@AlexS – “unemployed [???]” statist politicians? Hardly. They are employed as “politician emeritus” with portfolio and without the pesky need to be elected.
Okay. Point taken i should correct then:
World Bank. IMF, OECD are all a dump for unelectable or in a career iatos statist politicians so what is the surprise?
Sick Al Gore just tweeted report ten mins as A frightening new @WorldBank report on the climate crisis describes a “doomsday scenario” for the world’s poor,, already has over 100 retweets https://twitter.com/algore
Slot machine jack pot for Al Gore donations
“…we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations”
—
In the United States alone, we charge over a trillion dollars a year to the credit cards of future generations. Does the World Bank want to take action to reduce this debt burden? No, not at all. Instead, they want to increase spending in a vain attempt to reduce the impacts of climate change that may or may not happen next century and may or may not be more harmful than beneficial. A rapidly accelerating public debt is a clear threat to future generations. But this certain threat they choose to ignore to tilt at windmills.
I won’t pretend to speak for the rest of the world, but in the US, the baby boomer years were the last of the well educated years in this country. Since then, the education system has failed miserably, thus generating literally generations of undereducated people. The “failure” of humanity thus falls on those in the “boomer” category since they are practically the only ones that are intelligent and educated enough to see the farce of what is going on, and even though we try to point it out, we still end up the scapegoats. I will take that mantle to the grave – hopefully not too soon, of course – and will feel sorry for those that cannot think for themselves because there has always been the media to do their thinking for them, can’t do math because there always has been calculators, and can’t think beyond their loins and smart phones. We created a world wasted on those incapable of understanding if there is one sure thing in this world it’s that you can’t ever count on it being the same tomorrow as it is today. All things change, climate included, and history, which they prefer to ignore, proves that fact.
Is this a science website? Sounds like a bar-room. How about some explicit counter-arguments , references and sources? Let’s grow up!
From the article: “The planetary machinery tends to be jumpy, this is to respond disproportionately to disruptions that come with the manmade greenhouse effect,” PIK’s director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber points out.”
Is this the same Herr Schellnhuber who doesn’t seem to care much for democracy and human rights?
http://notrickszone.com/2011/03/29/another-german-will-soon-unveil-a-master-plan-for-a-transformation-of-society/
Where in German history have we seen someone before who thought like that? Hmm. Now let me think……..
“Within economic sectors, too, tipping effects with rapidly increasing damages can occur, for instance in agriculture. Already, observations showed that important cereals are sensitive to temperature increases passing certain thresholds, resulting in large-scale yield failure. Changes in the water cycle can aggravate this, when droughts occur or flooding affects farmed land.”
What a coincidence. Along with bankers, scientists and politicians are also busily scaring the wits out of people about their crops and water, and waging a legislative war on growers to reduce yields.
For example: http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Rice_agriculture_accelerates_global_warming_999.html
Now will the real Tipping Point please stand up: Science used to terrify and transmit wild phobias to people about water, cattle, crops, electricity, coal, and gas.
The World Bank report gets parroted…I just ran across this:
http://news.yahoo.com/prepared-accept-risks-four-degree-warming-164012393.html
(Emphasis mine)
(Sorry, the emphasis html in my 11:53 am post didn’t come through…I was trying to highlight “threshold fast approaching”.)
Ah! the World Bank makes a prediction about the future climate, it must be true, they are really clever people.
The funny thing is the World Bank seemed unable to predict the World Banking Collapse, when you would of thought they should have been able to do this, being experts in such things.
Perhaps they are not that clever?
To be fair to the World Bank, this is a report on the consequences assuming a 4K increase in temperatures by the end of the century. They are not trying to validate the assumption – they are looking at what the consequences will be if the assumption is correct. Given that they’re claiming that that rise is almost unanimous amongst scientists, they’re looking at the consequences. That’s not unreasonable. Whether or not that assumption is a valid assumption is a completely different question.
In the UK when the sub prime crisis hit it was revealed that the UK banks lost more money than all the profits they had ever made.
And now these ‘ ‘ankers are once more about to demonstrate their ability to thoroughly and completely analyse a financial opportunity, in this case, climate change.
The world is going to warm by 4 degrees ? Good luck with putting your money behind that…
Looks like banking history might repeat itself even faster than anyone could ever have expected.
Although they do provide loans, World Bank really isn’t a bank; it’s more like an investor group, and some of their investments are going to pay off only if the scare continues.
Check out their statement on their “what we do” page. Instead of me posting the whole gobbledy gook link, just go to:
http://www.worldbank.org
and click “About”, then “What We Do”
This study seems like a repackaging of the Copenhagen Diagnosis, which Rahmstorf & Schellnhuber from PIK were involved in. Here’s a link to it:
http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/
If someone wants to analyze the similarities between the two, it would be interesting.
PS: Other co-authors were M. Mann & Eric Steig.
I’m still curious as to when your full broadcast will be available on the web for downloading, at least in parts and sections. I saw a fair amount of it, but missed many of the presentations I really wanted to see. You mentioned that each section would become available for download at some point. How’s that progressing?
Temperature tipping point or fiscal cliff or wolf, better sooner than later, better now than after the expense of a brick shiitehouse.
I was very curious as to how they were going to get around the last 14 years of inconvenient temperatures. The answer was obvious when I stared at Fig 1 for awhile. You show the “Historical observations” as a very thin line which is dwarfed by RCP3PD, which is pretty much right on it for the last decade. (It was apparently in forecast mode only since late 2009) So how long will observations have to diverge from models to make a chart like this look silly? I would think another decade or so would do it. It is worth noting that RCP3PD assumes that deep cuts are made in CO2 emissions, which I didn’t realize was happening.
In the report, there is a list of dire CO2 statistics, followed by this bullet:
• Global mean temperature has continued to increase and is
now about 0.8°C above preindustrial levels.
Now, you might think that someone would figure out that the CO2 hypothesis is wrong, but that seems to be off the table. The data in this report seems to be fairly shrieking that message, but deafness prevails. Eventually, nature will make herself heard.
Paul Matthews says:
November 19, 2012 at 8:14 am
Let’s think, who would you trust to provide a reliable, honest, accurate account of climate change?
That’s it – bankers!
_____________________________
Of Course, After all A World Bank employee ran the IPCC. SEE: World Bank, Global Warming, Journals, and CRU Also Maurice Strong chair of the First Earth Summit in 1972 and of Kyoto was also a senior Advisor to the World Bank.
This announcement may backfire on them.
Remember Occupy Wall Street? How about Whirledbank’s article on The Structural Adjustment Policies of the World Bank and IMF? Or better yet Mr. Budhoo’s Bombshell a scathing letter of resignation.
The IMF and World Bank are not the same but they are linked in people’s minds,
William Nies says:
November 19, 2012 at 11:24 am
Is this a science website? Sounds like a bar-room. How about some explicit counter-arguments , references and sources? Let’s grow up!
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That was the WUWT TV 24hr broadcast. I don’t know about the rest here but I think I overdosed on science. Too bad we cant get these idiots to watch the youtubes Anthony is going to put up shortly.
this is all over the swedish press, all papers
But this is the World Bank, famous for sticking poor countries with pernicious economic policies that lead to exploitation by greedy foreign companies.
The Big Money boys behind them will be licking their lips.
JoNova quoted The Very Wonderful Julia Gillard on this:
“In total around sixty per cent of the world’s GDP is either subject to a carbon price today, or has one legislated or planned for implementation in the two or three years ahead.
International carbon markets will cover billions of consumers this decade. Ask the bankers at your table whether they want Australia to clip that ticket. We’re going to help them get their share.”
Yep. Let the banksters screw us even more.
(This is a repeat of the comment I made on Australian Climate Madness.)
Tom Jones says:
November 19, 2012 at 2:14 pm
…. The data in this report seems to be fairly shrieking that message, but deafness prevails. Eventually, nature will make herself heard.
________________________________
I am hoping that will happen this year with the COLDEST, SNOWIEST winter evah!
It looks like we are off to a good start too.
CHINA:
Worst snow in 50 years damages 400 greenhouse
Heavy snow blankets Urumqi, Xinjiang
Cold wave brings heavy snow, sleet to Beijing
Cold wave brings snow to Inner Mongolia
Russia Cold Wave Update:
Somehow I think this is going to bring home to the Russians the words of their prominent scientists.
Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, Head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences thinks were are heading into a long cold spell.
In the near future mankind will face a new ice age not a global warming. That is the forecast which has been made by Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of Space research laboratory at the Saint Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory… he thinks we are headed into ” a new cold era, which may become the fifth Little Ice Age in the last nine centuries. “ No surprise that “..Abdusamatov’s forecasts fail to find support among his colleagues..”
His work:
Measure temporary variations of shape and diameter of the Sun, as well as fine structure and dynamics of the granulation on the Service module of the Russian segment of the International Space Station
That was last February, seems some Russian scientist may have changed their mind.
Scientists Of The Russian Academy Of Science: “Global Warming Is Coming To An End – Return To Early 1980s Level” “Top scientists of Russia’s most prestigious academy say global warming is ending…Russian Academy of Sciences: temperatures will drop half a degree by 2015.”
And do not forget Down Under
16 August 2011; New Zealand becomes a winter wonderland after being hit by heaviest snowfall in 30 years
Jul 13, 2012, Australian wheat yields threatened by cold weather “Nearly 14 percent of New South Wales wheat production impacted by frost”
12 October 2012: A cold snap has covered parts of Australia’s east coast with a blanket of snow, in the middle of spring. Motorists were left stranded in the Blue Mountains west of Sydney, while power lines were downed, trees uprooted and ferries cancelled due to high winds and hail in coastal areas.
October 11, 2012; Australia Storm Gives Rare Snow: An unusually cold storm in southern Australia has dished out the first October snow in a century.
I am an ‘a-political’ skeptic. On some issues I’m to the ‘left’ of Michael Bakunin on others I’m to the ‘right’ of Ghengis Khan. This story gives me great pleasure because I can use it to confuse my friends of the ‘anti-corporate anti-banking’ persuasion…who up until now have been stolidly pro-global warming. When they find out that entities like Deutsch Bank, the World Bank have been promoting the Global Warming scare many of them will have to reconsider their allegiances.
Tom O says:
November 19, 2012 at 10:33 am Boomers are the most intelligent
Oh look, here’s one questioning authority now!
http://www.politicalcartoons.com/cartoon/9b28208b-bf66-4215-a19a-58f98a2a7994.html
Let’s see ..
‘new and better analysis’ — CHECK
‘tipping point’ — CHECK
‘weasel words’ (‘could’, ‘can’,’might’,’are likely’,’risk that’,’projections’) — CHECK
‘action needed now’ — CHECK
‘moral responsibility’ — CHECK
‘accelerating process’ — CHECK
Yes, all the old tiresome Green/Left talking points, dutifully recycled.
As long as Gillard is insuring bankers will have “their share” of the carbon markets scam…
Check Jo Nova’s fantastic post on that!
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/11/did-julia-really-say-that-shes-here-to-help-bankers-get-their-share/
The World bank is simply slightly impatient…
The impending deadline is the coming realisation by the general public that this thing is a bit of a mash-up.
“This report spells out what the world would be like if it warmed by 4 degrees Celsius,”
Good job it is not warming up then! If it was perhaps all the alarming things in the report would come true. It seems now that will not come to pass in our lives or the lives of our children. If the temperature can stagger back up to current levels by the end of the 21st century we will be doing well.
I know it is not re rigeur but WB studies can be unrepresentative of important thinkers inside the Bank and represent the view of the contracted organisation, or the individuals requesting it. My caution, don’t over-react. It is a large organisation. It is interesting that it has largely resisted jumping onto the AGW bandwagon for so long. Read between those lines. There is a lot going on.
This is another scare-story. Here’s a link to a list of links to over a hundred papers pointing out failed warmist predictions:
http://www.c3headlines.com/bad-predictions-failed.html
The dishonesty of this report is evident in this quote from page two of its Executive Summary (on p. 13 of its PDF at http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_Heat_Executive_Summary_English.pdf):
I.e., the same as it was in 2007.
Incidentally, this report is different from the Copenhagen Diagnosis. A summary of its outline can be found at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_Diagnosis
PS: The Report’s Acknowledgment section cited these worthies as peer reviewers, none of whom caught the howler above:
Surface tension blocks physical heat AGW is bunkum. You can’t heat water from above on this planet.
Oh, it is worse than we thought. Germany’s ARD – our version of the BBC – is reporting that it could be even 4.1°C, not just a meager 4 centigrade! and the related losses could be 68.2 billion US-$. Note the precision to 3 digits!
see here: http://tagesschau.de/ausland/erderwaermung-kipppunkte100.html
My experience in assessment of business proposals and the like is that the quality of a report is inversely proportional to the claimed precision. Here is no exception.
Here are a couple of other questionable claims from the Executive Summary (p. 3, column 1):
William Nies says:
November 19, 2012 at 11:24 am
Is this science? Sounds like a trading-floor. Why bother with explicit counter-arguments, references and sources? They never grew up!
When Anthony and guests post science the comments are mostly scientific, along the lines of “explicit counter-arguments, references and sources”. When “… puzzling things in life …” get posted the comments are a commensurate response to the content. Extreme statism, superiority complex and stupidity, in this case, are attracting some rant, ire and disbelief.
There is an overwhelming majority of science posted here but please read the site’s byline.
I am seething at the outright control freakery of the post’s subjects, thanks for asking.
If banks concentrated more on core business rather than things they know zero about then the world banking problem would not have happened.
The World Bank is a major backer for the UN’s secretive REDD program, where rainforest all over the world are being set aside and sold for carbon credits. It is in the best interest of the World Bank to say the planet is warming and we’re all gonna die. They are making buckets of money from it.
If you don’t know about the REDD program its not surprising, our media is avoiding the subject like the plague. Time to have a look.
“In Uganda, for example, a case was documented where 22,000 people were violently evicted from the Mubende and Kiboga districts earlier this year to make way for the United Kingdom-based New Forests Company to plant trees, to earn carbon credits and ultimately to sell timber. Similar incidents happened to indigenous peoples all over the world, said Overbeek. “REDD+ is about making more profit, continuing pollution and disrespecting the rights of forest people all over the world. It’s about land grabbing,” he warned. “It’s time to stop thinking about REDD+ and start protecting local populations and their land rights.”
Read about REDD http://www.ips.org/TV/cop17/forest-dependent-communities-lobby-for-end-of-redd/
@John M
“If banks concentrated more on core business rather than things they know zero about then the world banking problem would not have happened.”
A Harvard prof gathered the top bankers in the US to show them that if they stopped lending to the bottom 2.5% of their loan portfolio the number of bankruptcies in the USA would fall by 70%. One replied that they make 50% of their profit from that 2.5%. In other words they profit most from the destruction of shaky enterprises and families and they plan on doing so as a conscious act. What happened in 2008 was just the same thing on a grander scale. They were doing really well on the repo business, about 50k income from each home they siezed back, until demographics caught up with the scam and killed the reselling market. Harry S Dent talks about the latter in his books.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/11/ipcc%E2%80%99s-chairman-pachauri-conflicted/
Bankster!!!!
I was surprised at the degree to which RCP3PD fluctuated to track historical observations, never mind the discrepancies between modelled and historical. I just found out why, by looking at the spreadsheet. It is a battery of forcings, which have been adjusted to make it fit as well as possible to what actually happened. Historical retro-tuning went up until 2005. Forward prediction starts then. GHG forcing reaches a peak in 2046, then starts sliding back. Apparently, we all come to our senses then.
The fact that carbon will be traded on Wall St tells you exactly who is behind the whole scam.
Extracting their ‘cut’ from the UN ETS scheme the maintenance of a climate of fear is imperative. What they don’t get is that a decade of thrashing the public in general with this stuff guarantees global desensitisation. The vested interests grow ever clearer. What’s interesting to me though is that World Bank President Jim Yong Kim would sign off on this stuff. I’d really want to be fully conversant in all aspects of the discourse and evidence. What the Chief Bankster has demonstrated is that he is a party apparatchik and dependent drone.
davidmhoffer says: November 19, 2012 at 8:28 am
Well, Pachauri gave the World Bank his blessing in 2010 (while he was busy shifting gears from “all peer reviewed” to some grey literature cannot be ignored):
Yet the World Bank’s latest and greatest “academic work” contains the following disclaimer:
I wonder if any of the Board of Executive Directors is aware that whatever funds the WB may have expended on Turn Down the Heat would have been far better spent on a report that urges Turn Down the Hype.
4°? If and only if CO2 is the dominant forcing force. Which is being roundly refuted by real world data in every way possible. Reality doesn’t give a flying fig for forced fake consensuses, howsomever hard they push and loudly they shout.
The real world will have its way.
This report is the bugle-call for the Doha meeting. PIK is funded by Merkel. Schellnhuber is the leading German alarmist. On his board sits the leading Swedish alarmist Rockström. These are the invenots of the two centigrade target they now feel is not scary enogh. With this alarm report they want to establish a new four grad C scare to be met allready the year of 2060. Swedish MSM have bullhorned this for about a week now and I was a bit astonished that the rest of the World turned out to be missing the News of The Week. PIK is also dependent of funding from Munich Re (Worldleading in Reinsurance). In Sweden we have SNF (a local copy of the WWF). Since all climate-journalists abandoned them for kissing the feet of our climate-tsar Rockström, SNF tried to launch a six centgrade scare to get back into the papers. It miserably failed however.
This WB-report is just another scam instgated by the bank itself. They are trying to vitalize the multi biljon dollars Big Green Fund off which the culprits hope to recieve great cuts for the noble Cause of giving them all the Power in this World!
PSE read “inventors” and “instigate” where appropriate above!
At least as worrying as the damage being done to science, is the observation that the contributors seem to lack fundamental understandings of what they are saying. Take this extract from the report as an example
“To melt the ice sheet would take thousands of years, yet this might be an irreversible process that could start soon. “The only way to avoid this is to break with the fossil-fuel-age patterns of production and consumption,” says Schellnhuber.
I don’t know Schellnhuber, I just hope he has no qualifications because if he does he shouldn’t. “The only way to avoid THIS …” he writes. But he evidences no “THIS” to be avoided. What we have is – “would”, “might”, and “could”. In other words nothing exists. One cannot ever know if one has avoided that which cannot be shown to exist; nor if one does can one know if one’s actions were the cause of the putative avoidance.
Not that Herr S. should worry – depletion rates of fossil fuels will do his bidding without any interference.
These people are genuine idiots. The Greeks of 3500 years ago would have been aghast at the illogic. We appear to have regressed since then.