Below, you’ll find the latest update from NHC (as of this writing plus an animation from Dr. Ryan Maue that shows the details of the projected path and the meteorological variables as Sandy progresses.
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 70.5W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. WEATHERFLOW STATIONS AT LEWES DELAWARE AND TUCKERTON NEW JERSEY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 MPH AND GUSTS TO 52 MPH. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...LATER TODAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
==============================================================================
Here is a forecast animation from Dr. Ryan Maue which depending on your browser, may or may not animate until you click on it. It is 8.8MB in size and may take a couple of minutes to load on slower connections.
It depicts wind speeds and pressure. Not the the center of pressure (the eye) in this model NCEP is forecast to landfall in central new Jersey and cross into Southern Pennsylvania, passing almost directly over Philadelphia.
Foof, this should be called Hurricane Ben, for Benghazi, because the media wants to scream about it until election day so that they can ignore Benghazi. I reckon its projected path is as much a political calculation as any other. But I admit I’m no weatherman.
Dr Maue, and his weatherbell colleagues have been right on Sandy at every turn. The eye in this animation makes landfall before midnight tomorrow.
At the 10/28 11 PM forecast discussion the NHC states, “THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN ABOUT 30 HOURS…
AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN EARLIER
LANDFALL TIME THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.”
That would be 05:00 Tuesday. Surely the forecast is more accurate than a 6 hours at this point. That’s the rough difference between high and low tide, or incoming and outgoing. If the peak hits my town tomorrow night at 8PM Monday there will be water filled wazoos in low lying areas. But if it happens 6 hours later, this is a wind event with much less coastal flooding.
WUWT?
From the above article:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…
280 KM…MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES…835 KM. WEATHERFLOW
STATIONS AT LEWES DELAWARE AND TUCKERTON NEW JERSEY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 MPH AND GUSTS TO 52 MPH.
=====
The report from the NWS for Lewes, DE does not match:
HumidityNA
Wind Speed N 16 G 30 mph
Barometer 29.42 in (996.2 mb)
Dewpoint NA
Visibility 8.00 mi
Wind Chill 51°F (11°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 1:54 am EDT
————
Anyone know whats going on with the reports?
The NWS current conditions for Tuckerton, NJ:
Humidity 89%
Wind Speed N 24 G 31 mph
Barometer 29.46 in (997.4 mb)
Dewpoint 50°F (10°C)
Visibility 5.00 mi
Wind Chill 47°F (8°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 1:54 am EDT
———
Consider with my post above.
WUWT
What is remarkable is how the storm is NOT being attributed to AGW. The absence of truth is not enough to explain the absence of the claim.
Sandy has almost no outflow, that is the storm isn’t breathing well. There is dry air to south. Center circulation looks discombobbled the last few hours.
Sandy is still tracking north. Hard to tell exactly where the center is now, but it may have just turned NNW just as the center spread out.
It will still be a surprise to many folks living on the water. I hope they moved furniture upstairs and parked their cars uptown. Still looking at a lot of rain.
Sandy is now a large nor’easter.
Out on the earthquake shaken Canadian West Coast I am hoping that this will be a non-event. Wind, a fair bit of rain, a bit of flooding…we all hope and pray that the Frankenstorm predictions turn out to be more than was called for. Meanwhile, hunker down and know the rest of us are rooting for you.
“stacyglen says:
October 29, 2012 at 12:15 am”
Depends where you look; http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/28/1101241/cnn-bans-term-frankenstorm-but-its-a-good-metaphor-for-warming-driven-monster-largest-hurricane-in-atlantic-history/?mobile=nc
Some are attributing part of the hurricane to climate change:
Global climate change has contributed to the higher sea surface and ocean temperatures, and a warmer and moister atmosphere, and its effects are in the range of 5 to 10%. Natural variability and weather has provided the perhaps optimal conditions of a hurricane running into extra-tropical conditions to make for a huge intense storm, enhanced by global warming influences.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1706035/Hurricane-Sandy-mixes-super-storm-conditions-with
eyesonu says:
October 28, 2012 at 11:53 pm
The NHC report tells you that the information is coming from WeatherFlow stations, a private company not a NWS site.
http://www.weatherflow.com/coastal-weather-networks/why-choose-a-weatherflow-mesonet/station-siting-2/
So the question is, is the information NHC put in the report what WeatherFlow told them or do they have direct feed. I live just down the coast near Ocean City Md and this is what the Airport has (A NWS site)
Wind 22mph, Gust 40 and pressure at 992 MB as of 2:53 AM. However the gusts appear to be higher than 40 since they are stronger than they were back at 9 pm when the NWS had them as 44 mph. I’m sitting 3 feet from a Patio door and the sound of the wind and rain hitting it gives a good indication.
“stacyglen says:
October 29, 2012 at 12:15 am”
Also here:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/26/1097391/climate-change-frankenstorm-beyond-strange-unprecedented-bizarre/
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/SANDY.html
NOAA Tide gauges, wind speed, pressure etc quicklook for stations affected by Sandy
Appears to be 4+ foot storm surge beginning and winds as high as 50mph in some onshore areas
Al Gore-ultrawarmists at HuffPo know it’s Climate Change. Astonishingly, rather a lot of skeptic comments, at least for now.
Nathan Currier.Climate Reality Project; Classical Composer
“Climate Change Sandy Says to US, ‘Take That, Idiots!’ ”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-currier/climate-change_b_2032363.html
No, but you are pathetic.
Watching some of the still active webcams from the hotels down on the Boardwalk in Ocean City MD, you can see that the waves have completely covered the beach and are now crashing on the concrete barrier separating the boardwalk from the beach. Here is a site that links to different webcams:
http://oceancitylive.com/
I’m waiting for it not to turn to the west, and then we will hear for months about how we just avoided the biggest global warming disaster ever.
But it does seem to have started its turn west and the main surge will be along the Jersey Shore , which from memory was mostly sand dunes. Checking on Google Earth, those sand dunes are barrier islands.
Not much fun for Atlantic City, but the barrier islands will protect the mainland from the worst of the surges.
stacyglen says:
October 29, 2012 at 12:15 am
Maybe not, but that won’t stop them from doing so later & using it as an “example”! Remember, the warmists rarely claim that this or that event are direct evidence of AGW, they just say that this is what they expect to see as a result of it! It’s the “No it isn’t, but yes it is, answer”. 🙂
Remember, this is a political storm. And it’s caused by global warming, er climate change, er climate disruption, er climate propaganda.
More extreme weather from a Lance Armstrong climate.
And a taste of the problems rapidly accelerating sea levels cause.
And for a bit of levity, we return to 2005, epsilon and zeta. xkcd
As a Brit I was just trying to out this into some sort of context. Those of us that remember the “Great Storm of 1987” might want to be reminded of the details. The pressure dropped to 959mb. Continuous wind sustained wind speed was 81mph with gusts up to 120mph. The highest gust recorded was 122mph.
The highest storm surge recorded in the UK was in 1953 – a 10 foot storm surge.
We are in central Maryland watching this come in slow motion. It doesn’t feel like a tropical event as it was in the high 50’s yesterday, will be in the low 50’s today and down to the high 40’s tomorrow. Sunday was a day of intermittent light rain although about 75 miles to the east on Maryland’s eastern shore there was a line of thunderstorms that sat over the same general area for about 12 hours where the cold air met up with the tropical air. They got ~2.5″ of rain. My daughter and her new husband were scheduled to leave on a honeymoon cruise to the Bahamas but as we were taking the bags of of the car at the cruise liner terminal, the trip was cancelled by the coast guard. They made a spur of the moment decision to head to the Canaan Valley in West Virginia where 2 feet of snow is expected over the next 2-3 days. (They made it there safely last night.) Will be interesting to see how long it takes them to get out.
I don’t want to appear insensitive since I wouldn’t want to be in this things path and it has already killed but the latest update has sustained winds of 85mph (11am GMT), isn’t that ‘just’ a catagory 1 hurricane?
I realise its probably going to accelerate and there is some unknowns due to its collisions with two other weather fronts but apart from the obvious George Clunie reference how did this become a super-storm in the eyes of the media?
The cynical among those commenting, obviously don’t live near a coast which gets occasionally hit by a big storm. Yes the media does play it up, but the force of a large storm is mind boggling.
Ike hit Houston, and we were all glad it wasn’t any worse. 18 months later they were still finding bodies, after the storm surge took out a number of small settlements that had survived other hurricanes.
The upper right quadrant of the storm is where the most damage will occur from winds. If the storm does turn left, then NYC will get the “benefit” of those winds and the water they drive. It won’t be pretty.
J. Philip Peterson says:
October 29, 2012 at 2:55 am
“Remember, this is a political storm. And it’s caused by global warming, er climate change, er climate disruption, er climate propaganda”
You forgot climate chaos.
I am located 5 miles inland of Scituate Ma.. The strongest winds on the NE side of the model indicate we will be hit pretty hard.
Hurricane Sandy will amount to nothing more than our usual fall gale. We get them every year on the east coast. We look forward to them each fall, the surfing is choice.
Piers Corbyn thinks it may veer east like the last one that made it up that far … lets hope he is right.
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=499&c=5
From Piers’ website.
“END GAME for Hurricane Sandy. Piers Corbyn announced 7am BST 2am EDT Thurs Oct25 That the track of Sandy from Friday 26th onwards is likely to be TO THE EAST OF THE STANDARD MODEL TRACK (ie curving slightly rightwards compared to standard models – such as forecast iaaued 2am edt Oct 25 http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html ) and so LESS OF A THREAT to mainland USA. “This will happen because of solar particle factors and we are 80% sure of this. We made similar corrections to the track of Irene and some other Storms last year which were confirmed – see http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No15.pdf“
Max RECCON surface wind 66 KT. No convection. Cold, dry air encircling storm. Still no sustained gale force winds on the coast.
The January 2009 ice storm killed 65 or more people, 35 in Kentucky alone. Nothing at all was said about that storm by this shameful CAGW hyper pumping media we have in the USA. Global warming drums must remain silent about reporting the -35° to -22°F accompanying that storm.
2008 Hurricane Ike met up with a cold front that delayed it’s dissipation and even added to it’s strength for a period of time inland. So I hope it doesn’t get too serious on folks in the northeast.
Hurricane Ike put a pine tree down on my home in critter junction, Arkansas and the ice storm put down a big hickory that busted up my leg.
Just be careful, folks.
You can follow it here, live, as Mark braves the elements to set up equipment (video and data logging) as Sandy comes in to shore.
http://hurricanetrack.com/
This is a serious storm. Not to downplay, that, I have a comment about the supposed global warming cause: the only place where the Atlantic has been warmer than usual is where this storm has not yet been – of t e New England coast. Isaac pulled a lot of heat out of the atlantic in the path this storm is following. Tropical depressions happen. It is really quite something to declare that the air temp, atlantic ocean temp, or atmospheric humidity were unusual, are attributable to the global warming, and are a sign of what is to become normal.
Katrina was supposed to be the new normal, and we have gone since Ike without a landfall hurricane. This one technically cannot be a ‘tropical storm,’ cuz it is now a post-tropical storm, but that is just a technicality; sandy may not have sustained winds at or above 75mph at 20 meters at landfall, and so may not be a hurricane at landfall.
It will be a whopper of a storm, like Irene was, even though Irene was not a hurricane at landfall.
These things happen .They have happpened in the past, when CO2 was lower.
Looking at Sandy’s wind speed advisories (#s 21-27), she / he had 7 in a row with sustained winds at 75mph, the hurricane definition. how likely is that?
John A says:
October 29, 2012 at 1:53 am
Name calling (my bold) doesn’t do anything more than belittle your position, John A, and make you look intollerant in front of the world. But that’s your choice, apparently.
@- Goode ’nuff
“The January 2009 ice storm killed 65 or more people, 35 in Kentucky alone. Nothing at all was said about that storm by this shameful CAGW hyper pumping media we have in the USA. Global warming drums must remain silent about reporting the -35° to -22°F accompanying that storm.”
Perhaps they should have mentioned that factor.
Looking at the weather maps for the period of the Jan 2009 Midwest ice storm makes it clear that the jet stream was again looped south allowing the cold arctic air to descend to the mid-latitudes. A process seen again now, but further out into the Atlantic, that is far more probable with the extreme warming of the arctic.
Current conditions @ Lewes, Delaware from the NWS:
Humidity NA
Wind Speed N 14 G 31 mph
Barometer 29.17 in (987.5 mb)
Dewpoint NA
Visibility 2.50 mi
Wind Chill 50°F (10°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 8:54 am EDT
———–
Current conditions @ Tuckerton, NJ from the NWS:
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed N 18 G 32 mph
Barometer 29.12 in (986.1 mb)
Dewpoint 51°F (11°C)
Visibility 1.00 mi
Wind Chill 48°F (9°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 8:54 am EDT
———–
Somebody is going to have some explaining to do when this is over. This is beginning to smell like a replay of Irene with the NHC.
Never forget Irene.
To add (just for fun) the current Cleveland, OH conditions from NWS to my previous comment:
Humidity 89%
Wind SpeedN 25 G 36 mph
Barometer 29.89 in (1012.4 mb)
Dewpoint 40°F (4°C)
Visibility 6.00 mi
Wind Chill 33°F (1°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 8:53 am EDT
——
izen says:
“…the extreme warming of the arctic.”
As opposed to the extreme cooling of the Antarctic.
Cape Cod National Seashore webcam (Coast Guard Beach)
http://easthamchamber.com/visitors/coast-guard-beach-webcam
The top of the bank is about 50′ above the shoreline. This will get really interesting around 1300EDT onward.
People with Jersey Shore interests (not the TV show) may want to check out http://www.facebook.com/JerseyShoreHurricaneNews
Maybe http://www.facebook.com/groups/271722322839260/ too.
klem says:
October 29, 2012 at 4:53 am
> Hurricane Sandy will amount to nothing more than our usual fall gale. We get them every year on the east coast. We look forward to them each fall, the surfing is choice.
Be sure to take photos this afternoon! Perhaps you can start an informal competition to see how far inland people can surf.
izen says:October 29, 2012 at 7:14 am
[…]A process seen again now, but further out into the Atlantic, that is far more probable with the extreme warming of the arctic.
No, a process far more probable with the inexorable onset of winter…
It’s interesting that we see people like izen here taking full advantage of peoples’ misery for his own selfish (and bizarrely incorrect) CAGW extremism…
Izen, I hope you’re not saying the chances of a déjà vu of that ice storm are high. At least there are no more trees that are real dangerous to fall on my cabin. Unless… the wind was to get really stout on thickly ice coated ones.
None of them turned brown from the drought this summer, except a few way off in the woods. We did bucket brigades and saved a lot of trees.
This coming spring will reveal the true drought kill of the trees in the Ozarks. *fingers crossed* a lot of them wilted.
Ric Werme says:
October 29, 2012 at 7:39 am
> Hurricane Sandy will amount to nothing more than our usual fall gale. We get them every year on the east coast. We look forward to them each fall, the surfing is choice.
Be sure to take photos this afternoon! Perhaps you can start an informal competition to see how far inland people can surf.
—
Please everyone – be sensible. This is a dangerous storm. I live in New Hampshire and I am taking appropriate precautions to secure my home and property. We may be without power for a while…
@- D Böehm says:
“As opposed to the extreme cooling of the Antarctic.”
I await with interest some scientific data supporting this assertion.
http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/6/3703/2012/tcd-6-3703-2012.pdf
izen:
Empirical scientific evidence:
http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/3241/spannualkq5.png
Just had a call from a relative. The colorized videos being shown on the weather sham show indicate that we (where I live) in the Virginia area, have been experiencing hours of severe rain bands; extremely heavy rain, high winds, scary stuff… Only, we’ve had a fair amount of rain, relatively steady sometimes heavier, occasional gusts of wind. Most of the time the light branches of the trees (still heavy with leaves) are only waving and rustling.
It seems those severe rain bands are colorized to look like storms, not really. The storm has taken a severe hit. It is no longer the monster storm it used to be and the organized area is much smaller. The dry air to the south and to the NE have chopped the storm down. The bad news is that the center looks to be reorganizing somewhat just before hitting land. It makes for a much smaller storm with a more dangerous center. Still a minimal storm.
It is still a nor’easter. Gale winds over long reaches making for dangerous waves and surf. Lots and lots of the wet stuff falling.
If Piers is correct and the storm swings to the East, it might still clip Massachusetts and will still make for trouble along the coast. If not, it will slap New Jersey and New York city around some before it breaks up, again.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
@- D Böehm
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/science/climate/antarctic_peninsula.php
“2 Observed changes
Since records began, 50 years ago, mean annual temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have risen rapidly [Turner, et al., 2005; Vaughan, et al., 2001; Vaughan, et al., 2003]. A total increase in mean annual air temperatures, of around 2.8 °C makes this the most rapidly warming region in the Southern Hemisphere – comparable to rapidly warming regions of the Arctic.”
This contrasts with the Amundsen-Scott station data that you posted that shows less than half a degree difference over fifty years. And while the present temp may be around 0.3degC colder than 1957 the second half oc thr graph shows higher temperatures as well as lower in the last couple of decades. Antarctic weather seems to have got more extreme….
We can both find bits of the Antarctic that are warming, cooling, gaining ice and losing ice.
Neither the regional cooling or the gain in snow cover in the east of Antarctica offsets the much greater loss of arctic ice in the summer or the overall warming of the arctic.
@- Frank K. says:
“It’s interesting that we see people like izen here taking full advantage of peoples’ misery for his own selfish (and bizarrely incorrect) CAGW extremism…”
My apologies, I accept that people saying “I told you so…” Is not pleasant or tactful.
But there are those here rejecting the potential dangers of this storm, and completely avoiding the larger implications of such extreme weather, because of their own selfish {and bizarrely incorrect} rejection of the consensus climate science.
Izen gets shown some empirical evidence of cooling in the Antarctic….. and he simply rejects it in favor of his own reality. Sigh.
We’ve gotten some nice, long roars of wind up here in southern New Hampshire, where most of our leaves are already gone. Considering how far we are from the gale’s center, I am not inclined to scoff at this storm, just yet.
Izen
This thread is about Sandy.
Your obsession with other topics would best be served on threads related to your world view.
Current conditions @ Lewes, Delaware from the NWS:
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed NW 20 G 37 mph
Barometer 28.84 in (976.5 mb)
Dewpoint 51°F (11°C)
Visibility 2.00 mi
Wind Chill 48°F (9°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 12:54 pm EDT
——-
Current conditions @ Tuckerton, NJ from the NWS:
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed N 31 G 41 mph
Barometer 28.75 in (973.3 mb)
Dewpoint 55°F (13°C)
Visibility 1.25 mi
Last Update on 29 Oct 12:54 pm EDT
—-
Current conditions @ Virginia Beach, Va from the NWS:
Humidity 97%
Wind Speed W 22 G 33 mph
Barometer 29.10 in (985.7 mb)
Dewpoint 51°F (11°C)
Visibility 2.50 miWind Chill 46°F (8°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 12:56 pm EDT
——-
To add (just for fun) the current Cleveland, OH conditions from NWS:
Humidity85%
Wind SpeedN 26 G 35 mph
Barometer29.83 in (1010.3 mb)
Dewpoint40°F (4°C)
Visibility6.00 mi
Wind Chill35°F (2°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 12:53 pm EDT
—-
Current conditions @ Bermuda:
Latest Conditions At L.F.Wade Int. Airport in Bermuda
Recorded at 1:55 pm
Partly Cloudy
Temp.: 27°C/80°F
Humidity: 56%
Wind: WSW 25KT (29 mph)
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Current conditions @ Wilmington, NC from the NWS:
Humidity 64%
Wind Speed NW 16 G 30 mph
Barometer 29.49 in (998.5 mb)
Dewpoint 43°F (6°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 51°F (11°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 11:53 am EDT
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izen says:
“…consensus climate science.” <— absolute oxymoron. Emphasis on moron.
Izen seems to think a 0.5 deg drop in temp is small. I guess it is but is about the same as global warming in the other direction. So why is one more significant than the other?
From the National Hurricane Center / Cumulative Wind History
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/150352.shtml?swath#contents
Graphic clearly shows wind history to be “tropical force” (i e 39 to 73 mph). No sign or reports from any other source other than the NHC or MSM.
This is Irene hype all over again. Brings up the question as to what the real measured wind speed is offshore where only the NHC can measure.
Hype will kill. I would question any report put out by the NHC.
Their storm tracks are the only thing of any value in my opinion.
Caleb says:
October 29, 2012 at 9:46 am
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Please post (copy and paste is fine) from your local Current Conditions from the National Weather Service.
Personal observations can be subjective.
izen says:
October 29, 2012 at 9:12 am
No izen, you never said “I told you so”. You didn’t predict anything. You’re just a selfish CAGW extremist who is taking the opportunity of a rare natural disaster to enjoy the pain and misery of others. Says a lot about your character…
It’s too bad izen has poisoned the waters, so to speak, since I do have serious questions about the Arctic sea ice.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
While we’ve been worried about Sandy, the unprecedented sea ice recovery has apparently stalled.
Has Sandy been moving warmth into the Arctic?
Or is Sandy’s influence already breaking up and blowing around the new ice, causing it to pile up, reducing extent?
Or are the satellites messing up because the clouds from Sandy are blocking their view?
I’m interested in what’s really going on up there.
In response to kadaka, there’s been warm southerlies blowing over Alaska holding the Arctic ice back.
eyesonu says:
October 29, 2012 at 10:50 am
Caleb says:
October 29, 2012 at 9:46 am
“Please post (copy and paste is fine) from your local Current Conditions from the National Weather Service.
Personal observations can be subjective.”
Jaffrey @ 2:42 PM Wind NE 16 G 31 Pressure 29.35
Manchester @ 2:53 PM Wind NE 29 G 49 Pressure 29.38
There. Are you happy now?
Lights have blinked. Once the power goes out I’ll be off the web, and stuck with personal observations, which can be subjective. In fact I just went out for a walk in the subjective wind using my subjective legs and headed up to the nearby flood control reservoir to stand up on the dam and feel the subjective gusts shove me. The winds would die down, and then you’d hear the pines start roaring to the east, and the mist would start slanting and fly sideways, and the surface of the water would swiftly play with darting cat’s-paws, swirling and spreading, and then from the far side of the small lake you’d hear the pines roar and see them sway and toss big boughs as the blast moved away. Utterly subjective, but undeniably cool.
At 2:52 Boston has winds NE 40 G 56 Pressure 29.27
Winds here in western NH are about 15 gusting to 30 mph. No rain (yet). The governor has declared a state of emergency and has asked everyone to remain off the roads. We’ll see if our power goes out. It didn’t during Irene, but we got a tremendous amount of flooding…
Should “Not the the center of pressure…” be “Note that the center of pressure…”?
Caleb says:
October 29, 2012 at 12:16 pm
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Thank you. The weather report was not so subjective but rather quite objective. I had to work and entailed driving through 9 hours of cross/sideways gusts at 70 mph.
I really enjoyed your subjective description. Seriously! It was award winning! And yes, you made me happy! 😉
Subjective vs objective. Both have their place.
To make the above statement objectively clear, I was driving 70 mph. I have no idea of the wind speed. Not too bad as the side profile of the vehicle was about 650 sq ft.
Caleb says:
October 29, 2012 at 12:16 pm
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Your comment/response
+1
Yesterday Anthony pointed out how the government was being alarmist like the media normally is. But this isn’t a good thing. The last thing we need from the professionals is alarmism. For example, from this report:
“…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…”
Given that people can drown in two inches of water, what does that mean? This vague, alarmist crap is counter-productive. It’s bad when media outlets engage in it. It’s worse when supposedly scientific outlets engage in it.
I guess the silver lining is it makes clear the supposed scientific outlets are just political tools. I hope everybody learns that, but I’m not holding my breath.