From NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Facebook page, a silver lining to the heat wave/drought of 2012:
Check out these 2012 numbers from NOAA SPC, showing only 757 confirmed tornadoes as of September 21. That compares to an annual average of 1,300 tornadoes, and 1,692 that touched down last year as of late September.
SPC writes:
“After a busy start, tornado events in the U.S. in 2012 have dropped well below the expected normal. The preliminary total of 757 tornadoes is about 400 tornadoes below what might be expected in a typical year. This chart shows that in late 2011, the annual running total was over 400 tornadoes above normal. This depicts the dramatic variability that can occur in tornado numbers from one year to the next.”
I’d call this an “inconvenient truth” when compared to Al Gore’s latest pay for play bloviation:
Al Gore hopes to show links between climate change and the effects of extreme weather worldwide with an online and social media-fueled event built around the idea of “dirty weather.”
Gore’s advocacy group, the Climate Reality Project, announced Sunday that its second multimedia “24 Hours of Reality” event will occur Nov. 14-15 and bear the title “The Dirty Weather Report.”
Gore still hasn’t fessed up to the “24 hours of reality” lie he foisted on the public last year with his Climate101 video where he faked the results of a CO2 experiment in post production because it couldn’t possibly ever work on its own.
I located all the exact same props and replicated his experiment, and proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that the end result of that experiment presented to the viewer was faked.
See my findings here.
I wonder how much fakery we’ll see this year?
h/t to A. Scott for the SPC graph
Wasn’t Algore in Antarctica at the start of this record run. They’re keeping him out of the Arctic intentionally.
Al Gore is the gift that keeps on giving. Great comedic relief in a world full of stress. Thanks big Al!
What’s up with the link to a Facebook page? It makes me cringe …
REPLY: NOAA SPC uses this as public outreach – perfectly legit. See the URL on the graph for a non FB source – Anthony
Just waiting for the oft used warmist ‘excuse’ – that it’s just been a quiet year and it’s caused by natural variation, circulation patterns etc, etc….Then, next time it’s higher again, it will be all ‘man-made’ – kinda sad that the majority of them never see the fact that the supposed anthropogenic signal (if there at all) can never really be seen above and beyond the relatively massive NATURAL variation !…….. and of course, this applies to the vast majority of climate ‘events’.
I want to see all these type of reports emphasising that basic fact but somehow they never do……..
Who is Al Gore?
That facebook page, with the image(s) carrying the stamp/imprimatur of NOAA (their ‘shield’ or emblem) as well as that of NOAA’s NWS Storm Prediction Center all denote some elevated level of authority and authenticity … is there a problem with that?
.
It’s clearly sign of AGW. Everything is.
Someone might come with theory that we’re going to face climate extremes in the form that there will either be extreme weather or extreme lack of it….
😉
A response to a Jeopardy ‘answer’ in the category of buffoons, failures or failed presidential bidders … right?
“This man –
a) fielded a failed presidential bid in 2000 and
b) went on to become a laughing-stock in the ‘weather’ and climate business for his demonstrated ability to call-up, invoke or otherwise ‘make happen’ something now referred to as “The Gore Effect *”“.
.
.
.
Anthony, I hope you don’t scare Algore away this year. Last year was sooo much fun watching you deliver the monumental smackdown to his “24 Hours of Reality”.
This years “The Dirty Weather Report” has a name already ripe for smashing story. He should dress up in a clown’s outfit with face paint and all to better identify with the audience he targets.
I beginning to believe that he may be part of a vast right wing conspiracy to discredit the CAGW movement. November seems to be a time for climate related science.
What is “…inflation adjusted annual running total”?
I have nothing against the NOAA info, it is the Facebook page I object too. I can understand why people use it but I don’t like Facebook, that’s all.
John Blake said on September 25, 2012 at 8:03 am:
The less-successful half of the pairing that made the 2000 US Presidential election an adolescent-level joke:
Which would you rather see on the world news nearly every night?
Bush or Gore?
Bonus question: Does anyone here know who was Gore’s also-ran running mate on the ticket, without looking it up?
Hey, here’s one that missed the Lewandowsky survey: The 2000 Presidential Election was stolen from Al Gore by operatives in the pay of Big Oil to keep President Gore from transitioning the US economy to clean renewable energy.
mkelly says:
September 25, 2012 at 8:36 am
What is “…inflation adjusted annual running total”?
When these annual adjusted values are plotted, we see that the linear upward trend is removed from the data. Removal of this upward trend is desirable because the increase in tornado reports over the last 54 years is almost entirely due to secular trends such as population increase, increased tornado awareness, and more robust and advanced reporting networks. By removing the upward trend and making the broad assumption that 2007 represents something closer to reality for annual tornado numbers, we can attempt to answer the question, “what constitutes a normal year with respect to modern-day tornado reports?”
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html
Ah, but Anthony, you are forgetting, if the climate system warms, it’s Climate Change, if the climate system cools, it’s Climate Change! Not forgetting the UK Wet Office’s highly detailed Climate Change effects, “some regions will experience warmer temperatures, some regions will experience cooler temperatures, some regions will have more droughts, some regions will have less droughts, some regions will have more rain, some regions will have less rain”. It truly is unbelievable that they expect anybody to believe the bovine faecal nature of the puter models! Oh & as for Wikipidea’s “unseasonable cold weather phenomena and meetings associated with global warming”. Trusty 1925 Pocket OED, phenomenon: Object of perception, observed or apparent object fact or occurrence; remarkable person or thing, a wonder. Phenomenal: cognizable by the senses, concerned with phenomena, evidenced only by the senses, out of the common, remarkable, extraordinary. No mention of anything wrong, or bad, or disastrous, or dangerous, just unusual really!
And don’t forget: Al Gore and his followers are trying to steer the course of the first upcoming US presidential candidate debate next week: “Gore’s Climate Reality Project begs Debate Moderator Jim Lehrer: Ask Romney and Obama about Climate Change” http://junkscience.com/2012/09/13/gores-climate-reality-project-begs-debate-moderator-jim-lehrer-ask-romney-and-obama-about-climate-change/
I can only understand an “inflation adjusted” value (number) ONLY if that number were for “amount of damage reported” or “value of insurance paid cases” or the like.
Even “number of deaths” or “number of injuries” HAVE to be unique with respect to inflation over time, unless somehow the NOAA are going to assume that there are more emergency responders nowadays, and so its “easier” to get medical attention today than earlier (people are more likely to go to a hospital rather than use a band aid at home or just “suck it up”?) .
But “number of tornadoes” could only be “inflation adjusted” if they are going to exclude all of the little tornadoes or aerial tornadoes (that don’t touch ground) which are in the database only by radar reflections of the “hook”.
In earlier times, if no ground damage reported, no tornado. Now, “one radar return” = “one tornado”. But is this “inflation” ?
For some reason the headline of this post made me think of Al and Tipper, when he claimed the movie “love story” was made about them.
Isn’t the ACE number down by quite a bit in recent years as well?
Kev-in-Uk says:
September 25, 2012 at 8:02 am
—
Anything that’s above normal is caused by global warming.
Anything that’s below normal is merely natural climate variation.
Heads I win, tails you lose. It’s post normal science.
John Blake says|September 25, 2012 at 8:03 am|Who is Al Gore?
Al Capone’s simple brother-in-law. Every time he tries to run a scam it seems to go hilariously wrong.
Obviously the warming is reaching all layers of the atmosphere, resulting in less variation between the layers. This reduction in energy differential is reducing the number of electric storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes along with their severity.
Philip Finck says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:10 am
Why does it say `inflation adjusted number’? Why would you adjust the number of tornadoes for inflation. I must be having a `stupid moment.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
My understanding is that they adjust the numbers based on a set of assumptions regarding observation effectiveness. We have more people per unit area now, and more sensing equipment, so we tend to observe tornadoes today that would have never been detected at all 50 years ago. Hence the “inflation”.
So no, you’re not having a stupid moment, but the commenter right after you appears to be afflicted with something similar or worse.
Tornadoes? Are the absent ones termed Gornadoes? Lots of them around it seems.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
September 25, 2012 at 9:09 am
Bonus question: Does anyone here know who was Gore’s also-ran running mate on the ticket, without looking it up?
—————————–
Certainly, Joe Lieberman whom I thought would have been a better choice for the top of the Democrat ticket that year.
Slightly off topic. I just downloaded for myself a pre-publication article that discusses the potential linkage of the sun with earth warming. Here is the link
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13519&utm_medium=etmail&utm_source=The%20National%20Academies%20Press&utm_campaign=NAP+mail+new+9.25.12&utm_content=Downloader&utm_term=
All you have to do is register for free and you can download. Enjoy.
“NOAA just released data showing 2012 tornado count dropping like a house in Oz”
–
I enjoyed your title, Anthony. But now the focus will be on the “intensity” of storms rather than on the “count.” They’ll claim that a lack of increase in the number of tornadoes is not nearly as important in their new and improved climate models as the increase in spin. Then they’ll ask their friends in the media to help them increase the “spin” in every way they can.
But, but this year’s extremely low tornado count is just that, extreme weather, is not it? It is certainly worse than we thought. If there is nothing to rebuild, the effect on GDP & unemployment can be detrimental.
” Al Gore hopes to show links between climate change and the effects of extreme weather worldwide with an online and social media-fueled event built around the idea of “dirty weather.”
Gore’s advocacy group, the Climate Reality Project, announced Sunday that its second multimedia “24 Hours of Reality” event will occur Nov. 14-15 and bear the title “The Dirty Weather Report.””
Climate Reality Project
So we are in for yet another load of Al Gore CR_P
Right Brian, Gornadoes are invisible to all but those converted to climate alarmism. Alarmists can clearly see Gornadoes, they are tracked daily. See the latest Gornadoe report at Albert Gore’s Climate Reality Project. The UCA (unidentified climate anomaly) report can also be seen daily at 6:00 pm TT (Tennessee Time) broadcast directly from Big Al’s mansion.
I’m no statistician, but it seems to me that procedures like that applied to the “Inflation-adjusted” tornado numbers should work no matter what the baseline year one starts with. I went to the explanation page at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html to see what was up, and applied their algorithm to baseline years at 1954 and 1987 — the beginning and middle of the graph.
I got much different results each time, and in each case the trend was upward. Maybe I did it wrong, but it seemed to me the process was to take a baseline year and get every years’ delta from that. Then take the value of the trend line at the baseline year and apply the delta to that. In the case of 1987 the delta for that year would be 0, and adding it to the trend value would make it 1000. In 1954 the delta from 1987 was around -100 (hard to read the graph), so the adjusted value would be 900. In 2007 the delta was around 450, so the adjusted value would be 1450.
That did not give me a flat trend at all. Starting with 1954 gave an even worse result. What did I do wrong — or is the algorithm invalid except at the far right endpoint?
Oh my… forgot the /sarc not.
@RACookPE1978,
Yes it is inflation. Inflation of the count of tornados over time due to improved reporting/detection. For proper trend analysis, this needs to be treated as inflation because detection tech continues to improve over time such that in the next decade they will be counting tornados that went undetected in this decade.
One thing that shows this clearly to be a case of improved reporting/detection creating a false treand is that in the raw data if you separate the tornados by F rating, the 3s 4s and 5s aren’t showing much if any trend, the trend is all in the weakest tornados.
Matt.
>>Who’s Al Gore?<<
He invented the Internet, don't you know?
Al Gore seems to be bringing on a new ice age with all his talk. It is almost spooky how the Gore Effect works.
Hey!
Where’s R. Gates been hiding?
I haven’t had a chance to torture him over the bet about Al Gore’s on air experiment from last time.
Remind him that he made a bet….
That he lost….
In an embarrasing way….
… and he welched.
Is there going to be another on air experiment or other piece of “science” this year that I could get him to go double or nothing on?
I’d rather be gored by a boar
than bored by a Gore…
(apologies to William F. Buckley)
Global Warming morphs into Climate change — Extreme Weather now morphs into Dirty Weather.
Big Al’s logic, assuming there is any, seems to point to the idea of adding a human induced aspect to extreme weather to prove the human footprint.
Is there any data to support a trend in soot etc. in weather? Given the current global downtrend in manufacturing, his timing appears to be conjecture as usual.
Be careful, the next ALARM will be that there are NOT ENOUGH tornadoes, because of CO2!
Al Gore blamed the massive Arizona Wallow fire in May/June 2011 on climate change. On 22 June 2011, he said:
“Today, the biggest fire in the history of the state of Arizona is spreading to New Mexico.” Gore said. At what point is there a moment where we say, ‘Oh, we ought to do something about this?’”
But it turns out a major factor in creating increased fire potential in eastern Arizona were the dead oak trees killed by the severe freeze during the 1st week of February 2011. Here is a quote from the Coronado National Forest (http://www.inciweb.org/incident/article/2225/11448/):
“Dry fuels and oak trees, killed from the intense February freeze, are providing fuel for the fire.”
And here is a fuels advisory put out by the Coronado NF of SE Arizona in March 2011 which anticipated increased fire potential due to the severe freeze (http://www.myfirecommunity.net/discussionimages/NPost10594Attach1.pdf):
“However, what is for sure is that we can expect increased fire potential and fire
behavior in areas dominated by oaks which have suffered the impacts of the early February
freeze.”
The temperature dropped to ZERO F on 4 Feb 2011 at Douglas in SE Arizona while 3 Feb 2011 with a mean temperature of 16 F saw a -32 F departure from normal.
Climate change policies causing food shortages:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/09/25/bacon-shortage-pigs.html
Thank you green activists, your ethanol fuels damage engines and raise the costs of feed until food production becomes unsustainable. Is this what the green cult really meant when they preached about sustainable living?
MarkW says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:04 am
“Isn’t the ACE number down by quite a bit in recent years as well?”
Actually, NOAA are stating the ACE is 50% higher so far this year – but they have been saying that every year and in this case the issue is definitely one of increased surveillance – if you look at their hurricane page, they are measuring weather events is so far into the Atlantic that they pose more of a threat to Africa. You can’t tell me these were included in previous years.
They are up to 53 advisories on Nadine (now as TS), which has been running around in circles in the mid-Atlantic for about 14 days. This of the ACE they can attribute to that!
Tornadoes and hurricanes: At a new low
The CO2 calms them, as far as we know
The crop yields increase
And the starving will cease.
More CO2, please, let the trees and plants grow
Al Gore…the best help deniers never dreamt of…
“Gorenado” … perfect!
We ALL live in “Dirty Wx” Al Gores new “Gorenado Alley”
“Attack of the Killer Gorenado’s” by “Dirty Wx” Al Gore
A gust of hot air and you have a Gorenado … courtesy of Al “Dirty Wx” Gore’s new project …
Ok – better stop 😉
Tornado madness!! Al and his liar chums must stop trying to scare the children. Children will know what tornadoes are. Tornadoes are not a thing of the present.
“dropping like a house in Oz”
?????????????
I haven’t noticed houses dropping around here.
If you mean price, Australian houses are overpriced, but the prices aren’t dropping anywhere near as much as they should.
[Reply: Ref: The Wizard Of Oz. — mod.]
Coming to an area near you: tornado drought caused by…………………global warming. I am not joking either, just wait and see. These scam artists have no shame when they have their snouts firmly in the lucrative funding trough. They do not hesitate to lie. They do not hesitate to deceive. It’s all about the money. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Oh…oh…I so get the twisted logic of the above folks who are predicting the LACK of tornadoes will somehow be related to globull warming. That is some heavy hitting sarcasm right there!!!! You just can’t get this kind of entertainment on TV. God bless you Anthony for bringing those kinds of folks out of their own world into the universe so we can all taste of their delicious comments!
And to make not too fine a point, the examples of twisted logic above delivered to the opposition is one of the higher forms of logic Spock himself would bow to, as in “I’m not worthy! I’m not worthy”!
Too much heat is gonna cause more severe weather … until it doesn’t.
That damn ‘ol dirty weather …
Thank YOU!
davidmhoffer says: “So no, you’re not having a stupid moment, but the commenter right after you appears to be afflicted with something similar or worse.”
I thought it was me.
MarkW says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:05 am
of course (except when it’s say something like rainfall, when below normal would be AGW ! – but I get your point).
Post Normal Science = Science based on ‘Normals’ we Post – though it isn’t science and they cannot define the normal!
“Michael (Mann) Lewis says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:30 am
Obviously the warming is reaching all layers of the atmosphere, resulting in less variation between the layers. This reduction in energy differential is reducing the number of electric storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes along with their severity.”
If you checked before you made the claim you would see that AMSU shows now convergence of temperature difference between layers thereby reducing the energy differential.
Hot air claims belong to Al Gore. Are you Al Gore?
AndyG55 says:
September 25, 2012 at 1:31 pm”Be careful, the next ALARM will be that there are NOT ENOUGH tornadoes, because of CO2!”
You’re catching on.
@Nik Marshall-Blank – Give me a few minutes while I fudge the AMSU data to support my claims. 🙂 My original post was lacking a /sarc tag but was intended to be tongue in cheek.
John Blake says:
He’s the antithesis of John Galt.
“After a busy start, tornado events in the U.S. in 2012 have dropped well below the expected normal. The preliminary total of 757 tornadoes is about 400 tornadoes below what might be expected in a typical year. This chart shows that in late 2011, the annual running total was over 400 tornadoes above normal. This depicts the dramatic variability that can occur in tornado numbers from one year to the next.”
Add to that a dearth in tropical storm energy this yr in the N Atlantic — again.
@Michael (Mann) Lewis
Message received 🙂
Poor AlGore…. No matter what he touches it does exactly the opposite….
Perhaps someone could convince him to start a rant about our impending economic DOOM and the plunge into poverty happening now!!!! Then in no time we could all have jobs and rising incomes….
FWIW, it looks to me like the energy flux “in” is down with the sleepy sun. The flux “out” is a bit high with LOTS of global rain and a nice radiating Arctic. But the gradient between equator (cooling with the rains) and Arctic (not yet cooled / iced over) has decreased. So mostly we’ve just got less “bad stuff” happening (other than the places getting boatloads of rain… rather like the last time a big flip to cooling happened…)
So the whole weather thing is ramping down with the ramp down in solar flux / UV ….
After a couple of years of high rain, I expect it, too, will drop off into a drought as less will be driving that heat engine.
(California, in particular, has a history of “droughts after rains” as we take a cold turn. In the late ’50s we were flooding, then in the cold ’70s it was a drought period.)