“Connect the Dots” for this one. Mother Nature has just proven how idiotic some one the arguments trying to link global warming and severe weather are: in this case, the “global warming makes more tornadoes” argument has just gone down in flames.
Given how hot July was in the USA, setting a new record high temperature for the continental United States, and given that the U.S. is the world’s tornado capital, and given the wailing of paid political shills like Joe Romm, Brad Johnson (who tried to get traction for a Twitter meme of #poisonedweather going) and weepy Bill McKibben, that tornadoes are exacerbated by global warming, you’d think Nature would have come through for them in July. By their twisted “logic”, with record heat, it would naturally come to pass that July had a record number of tornadoes, right? As John Belushi would say: “But nooooooo….”
It’s another CLIMATE FAIL, bring out Roger Pielke Jr.’s handy BS button, because Nature has just blown these idiots a raspberry. The only “poison” is their message. – Anthony
Guest post by Paul Homewood from Not a Lot of People Know That
NOAA has now released preliminary numbers for US tornadoes in July, showing that the remarkably quiet season seen up to June has continued. As the graph above indicates, April through July are by far the busiest months, so it is unlikely that the rest of the year will make any significant difference to the overall trend.
As at 6th August, preliminary tornado reports total 905, lower than any year since 2005. ( NOAA’s Storm Prediction Centre take about three months to finally confirm actual tornado numbers and classification ). Figure 2 attempts to compare trends since 1954, with “inflation adjusting” to compensate for changes in methods of detection over the years. Again, the number of tornadoes is very low by historical standards. (For more discussion on these topics, see here.)
Figure 1
Figure 2
July Report
Figure 3
According to data from the SPC, during July, there were only 24 preliminary tornado reports. This is the least number of tornadoes reported during the month since 23 tornadoes occurred in July 1950 and July 1951. It is possible the number will be revised lower once storm surveys are completed. On average, the U.S. experiences 134 tornadoes during July. This also marks the least active tornado month since January 2011, when 16 tornadoes were confirmed.
On July 28th, a tornado touched down along the northeastern slope of Mount Evans in Colorado at an elevation of approximately 11,900 feet above sea level. The location was remote and no structural damage or injuries were reported. The tornado was uncommon due to the high elevation of its occurrence, marking the second highest elevation at which a tornado has been observed in the nation. Mountainous terrain and high elevations typically create unfavorable conditions for tornadoes, making these events rare, but not impossible. The highest elevation of an observed tornado in the country occurred in July 2004 at 12,000 feet above sea level in California’s Sequoia National Park.
Confirmed numbers for March.
The SPC have confirmed the actual numbers for March, with a total of 82 tornadoes of EF-1 classification or greater. As in February, this was unusually high, comparing with the 1970-2011 March average of 42. Since 1950, the March total ranks 4th highest, behind 1976, 1961 and 1991. The total for 1976 of 147 was a good deal higher though.
Figure 4
Confirmed numbers for April
There were 81 confirmed tornadoes in April, close to the 1970-2011 average of 85.
Figure 5
Last year, of course, April was the worst on record, so what has changed. NOAA themselves admit that nobody really understands how tornadoes are formed, but do give some clues.
How do tornadoes form? The classic answer–”warm moist Gulf air meets cold Canadian air and dry air from the Rockies”–is a gross oversimplification. Many thunderstorms form under those conditions (near warm fronts, cold fronts and drylines respectively), which never even come close to producing tornadoes. Even when the large-scale environment is extremely favourable for tornadic thunderstorms, as in an SPC “High Risk” outlook, not every thunderstorm spawns a tornado. The truth is that we don’t fully understand.
Now take a look at the next two temperature maps from GISS for April, first last year and then this year.
There has been little change in the Gulf, where it has remained warm, but the cold air towards the North West that was so prevalent last year has simply disappeared this year. It seems that a warm Spring can have its advantages.
Where was it hottest just the USA because in Scotland we have had practically No Summer at all.
This is the thing about so called climate change nobody gives accurate info about what is going on World Wide. Some Nations are getting colder weather is this just ignored
Except the ‘poisoned weather’ meme…was focussed on heatwaves, drought, and flooding.
REPLY: Are you capable of reading what is in front of you before bloviating? Read the headline on the Thinkprogress article front and center:
Poisoned Weather: Global Warming Helped Fuel Killer Tornadoes
Sheesh. – Anthony
As far as political idiocy goes, I expect that kind of thing from anything that is funded by George Soros because all he wants to do is fund individuals that push his progressive beliefs no matter how wrong they may be.
On another note, I couldn’t help but notice the drastic difference in the south pole region between this year and last year in the two temperature maps from GISS. Looks to have been drastically cooler this year over last year.
Is that what’s called a bait and switch? Pick an article about tornadoes that was written in early March and pretend it contradicts a July headline about the record heat in the USA?
That seems as silly as someone saying global warming couldn’t lead to both worse drought and heavier rainfall.
Since tornado count should be a relative sure thing to go up on the average going forward, then this will serve as a nice point to start plotting trends from in future alarmist stories.
If you chaps were really worried about tornados you’d drop your insistence on driving on the right, whereby cars passing in opposite directions promote tornado-friendly air rotation: in the Northern Hemisphere it’s bettter to drive on the left, as the sage peoples of Britain and Japan do.
Mark says:
August 13, 2012 at 7:07 am
Except the ‘poisoned weather’ meme…was focussed on heatwaves, drought, and flooding.
REPLY: Are you capable of reading ………..
==================================================
Indeed. But, if Mark want’s to talk about droughts and flooding, there’s not significant upward trend in U.S. droughts and no significant trend in global flooding either.
The facts are the none of the weather memes have materialized.
From the Climate Progress article:
“Because of that variability and imperfect historical records, scientists have not found a measurable trend in tornado intensity and number.”
“Scientists are only beginning to have a formal understanding of how our disruption of the global climate is influencing extreme weather such as tornado-bearing thunderstorms.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/08/439053/poisoned-weather-global-warming-helped-fuel-killer-tornadoes/
So yes, they add their spin, but the article is not blatantly dishonest.
On a related topic, how many consecutive hurricane season days has it been since the last major hurricane strike on the mainland US? Aren’t we in record territory for number of days since the last strike?
[Posted this in Tips and Notes, but maybe it’s apropos here. If not, delete.]
More ‘extreme weather’ hype from the Washington Post on Saturday:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/summers-record-heat-drought-point-to-longer-term-climate-issues/2012/08/11/e1e6c68c-e313-11e1-a25e-15067bb31849_story.html
Lots of comments. I posted this:
To which one ‘afilv’ responded:
I answered,
It appears, however, that the entire exchange has been deleted from their Comments thread. Leastwise, I can’t find it.
These articles in the MSM are coming fast and furious (to coin a phrase). Maybe it’s time to issue a challenge: “Here are ten simple reasons why none of the ‘extreme’ weather events we’ve seen this year have anything to do with hypothetical man-made ‘global warming’. We dare you to print them, and see if any of the climate alarmists can refute them.” Then send it to every media outlet you can find.
/Mr Lynn
Why is it that every time someone wants to show how the global temperature has gone up over the decades they use the cold period40-70’s as part or most of the bench mark to compare to. Try this trick with the 30’s and presto GLOBAL COOLING is happening. Those of us who lived through those cold times remember and can not be fooled by this trick.
I had the privilege to live in Thurso for 3 years and got used to the idea that I’d get 2 or 3 weeks of spectacularly beautiful weather around the end of August into early September. The rest of the year was horizontal rain. I remember going down to Knockhill in July to race. Froze my butt off. Nothing like racing a motorcycle on a curvy, bumpy track in a cold, driving rain.
CAGW poisons tornadoes, dontchaknow?. Hurricanes too.
Looks like the South Pole stole our winter!
Honestly, we’re looking at temps right at or slightly below 60 tonight in KCMO. We may have had the so-called hottest July, but it seems to be cooling off quickly enough. Now if we could only get some rain …
Harry Reid has no credability whatsoever. I used to live in Nevada; he used to be my “senator”. He was an abject failure on all issues except highly questionable land deals that made him rich and representation of unions that are bilking taxpayers through excessive compensation.
In a big way, Harry Reid is a legal criminal–and he’s clueless that he is. Such a sad, sad little man.
Minor re-write needed here Anth?
“Mother Nature has just proven how idiotic some one the arguments trying to link global warming and severe weather are: ”
Maybe “some of” ?
.
Oh dear! My twisted brain initially read that ThinkProgress headline as “Poisoned Weather: Global Warming Helped Fuel Killer Tomatoes”.
James Scott says:
August 13, 2012 at 6:59 am
Where was it hottest just the USA because in Scotland we have had practically No Summer at all.
This is the thing about so called climate change nobody gives accurate info about what is going on World Wide. Some Nations are getting colder weather is this just ignored.
That’s is correct. The NW US is cool all summer with remaining snows in the mountains, Alaska Bering sea area has been cold. If there is a blocking high pressure it will be associated with a persistent low pressure where the temperature will be cooler.
The jokers in the article do not know their weather. The tornado is associated with intense thunderstorm development. That requires very unstable air that is rising due to the hot surface air moving quickly upward into cold air aloft…thus accelerates as the differential increases… that is NOT found in descending air associated with of high pressure areas…
Our schools are so inept in educating people on their favorite TV program…the weather forecast. As a consequence, our Attorney/Politicians/Media elevate themselves as intellectuals; however, they are seen by the rest of us as being liars, devious, arrogant and ignorant.
The last statement in the article is at the root – the money: “In the face of this warning, we must ask if our current path of increased pollution and decreased investment in public safety is the wisest course.”
I don’t want to be a bloviator either, but I couldn’t help but notice that this sentence seems incongruent, “Given how hot July was in the USA, setting a new record high temperature for the continental United States,” becasue it linked to http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/08/an-incovenient-result-july-2012-not-a-record-breaker-according-to-the-new-noaancdc-national-climate-reference-network/
And that link clearly shows that July did not break any records–which is what I have been telling my “on-the-fense-alarmist” freinds. Am I missing something? Maybe this is not as clear as I read it?
Using the old network, NOAA says the USA Average Temperature for July 2012 is: 77.6°F
Using the NOAA USCRN data, the USA Average Temperature for July 2012 is: 75.5°F
The difference between the old problematic network and new USCRN is 2.1°F cooler.
This puts July 2012, according to the best official climate monitoring network in the USA at 1.9°F below the 77.4°F July 1936 USA average temperature in the NOAA press release today, not a record by any measure. Dr. Roy Spencer suggested earlier today that he didn’t think so either…
Good post, Anthony. I was once taken in by these climate scoundrels, and while I still believe it is warming and that human activity is a significant cause of the observed warming, these alarmists are just getting ridiculous. I realized how ridiculous when I was discussing global warming with some of others… none of us could come up with any reason that wasn’t highly speculative and unlikely as to why global warming would be a bad thing. In fact, there is NO evidence to suggest that global warming would be anything but beneficial for large portions of the world! But these clowns are now getting so desperate as to say we must spray ocean water into the clouds and deploy sulfur particles in the upper atmosphere… WTF? Who gets to decide what is the best climate for earth? I don’t see how a 2-3C warming in the northern US, Canada, or Russia would be a bad thing? Can somebody explain how this could possibly be a bad thing? It seems like it would open up much more arable land and even improve crop yields in the future. If aliens could visit our planet, they would probably assume we were deliberately moderating the climate to make the planet more inhabitable. I realize some of the high projections for future climate change (i.e. 5 or 6C would probably be bad), but those are based on impossibly high CO2 of 800-1000+ ppm. Currently, we’re at 394 ppm and increasing at about 2 ppm per year. Even if that growth rate continued, we only wind up about 550 ppm or so by 2100.
Heat is just one component needed for tornado formation. If the other requirements are not present then there will be no tornadoes. Unless someone prominent has prominently made the claim that increasing temperature alone will spawn tornadoes this lack of observed tornadoes seems to be hyperbole.
A better question to ask is has the July 2012 heat done something to prevent tornado formation. So off we go to http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html and we see that this July is not particularly remarkable in recent history.
Playing got your nose (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_got_your_nose) with weather variability is probably not good science.
Facts matter not…you say something again and again, no matter the facts/observations and the scientifically inept general public accepts it….as do the absolute filth that makes up the dem party by and large.
I, too, was puzzled by that juxtaposition. Perhaps the sentence should read, “Given how hot July was in the USA, getting close to a new record high temperature. . .”
/Mr Lynn
REPLY: Note the press release from NOAA “State of the Climate” in it making the claim – Anthony
Absolute heat does not create tornados. A difference between temperature zones and the resulting convection is what creates right conditions to spawn tornadoes. You are not going to get any under a high pressure system, that’s for sure.
The key factor connecting lack of tornadoes, heat and drought is high pressure
High pressure suppresses storms, increases sunshine, brings a southerly airflow to the East half of the US (when in the position it has been), and in summer increases temperatures.
It is often mistakenly said that heat creates drought. In reality they share the cause.
The U.S. was hot in July, but globally, July dropped from June on UAH, RSS and GISS. The drops were, respectively:
UAH from 0.37 to 0.28
RSS from 0.339 to 0.292
GISS from 0.56 to 0.47
Jim asks what is the possible harm of 2-3 c temperature rise.
You have to understand ‘tipping points’ jim. these little degrees will melt the tundra and put lots more water vapour into the atmosphere. Water vapour is a magnificent greenhouse gas, and will magnify your 2-3 degrees by a factor of lots. This will cause the oceans to boil and will release even more water vapour. This process, once initiated, is irreversible.
Once the world becomes a boiling mass, it is stuck like that, like Venus, forever. fixed.
It has happened to the earth 4 times so far, when co2 levels were very high.
luckily, the previous 4 times, it made a full recovery
dearieme said:
“If you chaps were really worried about tornados you’d drop your insistence on driving on the right, whereby cars passing in opposite directions promote tornado-friendly air rotation: in the Northern Hemisphere it’s bettter to drive on the left, ”
Our storms over tornado alley (which is actually more eastward than shown in graphic) for the most part rotate clockwise. Thus, our driving on the right-hand helps “prevent” tornado formation.
There is no “global warming makes more tornadoes” argument in the linked article (although perhaps Anthony meant some OTHER article rather than the one he linked to). The whole discussion in this post is a mis-representation of the linked article.
I looked briefly at tornado data a year or so ago. At that time, there was a clear trend in the tornadoes — not MORE tornadoes, but EARLIER tornadoes. Tornadoes historically tend to come earlier in the year in the south and later in the north. You can see the trend in individual states — consistent with individual states warming over the years. And in fact, that is precisely what the linked article claims: “This year’s early start to tornado season is consistent with what we would expect from a warming climate.”
There is nothing inconsistent with the claim that the EARLY tornadoes were enhanced by warming, while later tornadoes were diminished. (And of course, there are many factors besides simply temperature involved). The ‘poisoned weather’ meme was not falsified by Nature. In fact, the dearth of later tornadoes would SUPPORT the hypothesis of GW affecting tornadoes.
REPLY: The headline is quite clear, and Brad Johnson has a long history of trying to link tornadoes to global warming. For example: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/29/never-let-a-good-crisis-go-to-waste-tornado-deaths-blamed-on-lawmakers-opposed-to-climate-legislation/
But, if I’m so wrong, why did they need to disappear Twitter comments about it? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/13/bill-mckibben-disappears-his-own-commentary-on-poisonedweather/
They are welcome to bring the issue front and center and tell me how wrong I am and that they really aren’t trying to link tornadoes and AGW at all and this is all just a big misunderstanding and hugs all around.
-Anthony
Thus demonstrates the folly of averaging temperatures. While a fair portion of the US was very warm, the west coast was below average. Out in Western Washington, we haven’t had a summer in three years. June, which is normally sunny and temperate, was very cool and the wettest on record. July started out the same, but eventually got sunnier, though still below average for the season.
Paul, exactly. So now the onus is on AGW scientists to connect increasing CO2, increasing evaporation, and increasing water vapor to the development of extreme kinds of high pressure systems and the record temps they often cause. Right away arm chair weather nuts like me know that there can be no connection. The very definition of high pressure systems is lack of clouds and low humidity over land. You will not find increasing water vapor –the signature of runaway CO2 caused warming– in high pressure systems. You will find just the opposite.
Therefore, these high temp records CANNOT be caused by CO2 driven water vapor increase causing these temps to be hotter than normal. There isn’t any water vapor around in high pressure systems for that degree of increase to happen and CO2 alone cannot cause the increase. Maybe the problem here is that Hansen and others like him are NOT meterologists, which is why they make these kinds of weather versus climate versus AGW mistakes.
The high pressure over the central US explains the heat, drought, and lack of tornadoes as has already been pointed out. This is weather not a climate change.
Here in SE TN at the end of tornado alley we have been on the edge of the high pressure and have been getting an abnormal amount of rain coming from the north around the edge of the high pressure. It seems like it has rained almost every day for the last six weeks.
The normal spring/summer weather pattern is to have a weekly front move through from the WSW with some of these bringing strong storms including tornadoes.
As I am typing this one of these typical fronts is approaching now and we are under a severe thunderstorm watch. Hopefully this is a sign that the high pressure area is starting to move away from the midwest.
Weepy McKibben disappears the discussion on tornados, because “it isn’t worth the trade off”.
Not because they’re wrong about it. Because it isnt worth the tradeoff. Everything about these ______ is about propganda value, not truth. Wrong = right, if it plays well.
Then put the phrase “setting a new record high temperature for the continental United States” in quotes, to distinguish it from the rest of the paragraph, which I assume is yours. Otherwise, it sounds like you’re contradicting yourself.
/Mr Lynn
dearieme says:
August 13, 2012 at 7:51 am
If you chaps were really worried about tornados you’d drop your insistence on driving on the right, whereby cars passing in opposite directions promote tornado-friendly air rotation: in the Northern Hemisphere it’s bettter to drive on the left, as the sage peoples of Britain and Japan do.
The UK has the greatest number of tornados in the world for its land size!
I think it would be OK to average temperatures if, (1) one referred to it properly – as a temperature-station average, not as an average temperature, (2) one used the same set of temperature stations (in the same places) for each average.
Paul Martin says:
August 13, 2012 at 9:10 am
Oh dear! My twisted brain initially read that ThinkProgress headline as “Poisoned Weather: Global Warming Helped Fuel Killer Tomatoes”.
===============================
The heat in Illinois is making for some killer tomatoes in my garden. They always taste better with more heat and they are heaven this year. And Archer Daniels Midland grew hothouse tomatoes for a while using their CO2. To some, AGW is a win/win. Beware Big Tomato.
Harry Reid is the best man solar could buy. Which isn’t saying much about the other guys they bought. Solar is like public service unions but without all the union members standing between Reid and the government money he’s handing out. Thinking Progress yet?
Anthony says: “The headline is quite clear …”
I wouldn’t have used the word “poisioned”, but otherwise, I don’t see anything misleading about the headline. Data shows that tornadoes are shifting earlier in the season throughout the country, consistent with a general warning trend. So any especially early tornadoes would logically be influenced by early warming. (Just like late-season tornadoes would be diminished by warming.) (At least this is what I recall from my brief explorations of the data. I would welcome anyone confirming or refuting my recollection.)
On the other hand, YOUR headline is clearly misleading. Nothing in the article suggests that temperatures ABOVE those typically associated with tornadoes (like we have seen in July) should increase tornadic activity. Nature is confirming that there is a typical temperature range where tornadoes occur, and that typical range is occurring earlier in the year than it used to.
“… and Brad Johnson has a long history of trying to link tornadoes to global warming. “
I agree that Brad Johnson’s OTHER headline (and entire article, for that matter) is inappropriate political grandstanding. But I don’t see how his poor title (for a DIFFERENT article) is related to your poor title (and poor analysis) in this post.
“But, if I’m so wrong, why did they need to disappear Twitter comments about it? “
I have no idea why … you would have to ask them.
“By their twisted “logic”, with record heat, it would naturally come to pass that July had a record number of tornadoes, right?”
Wrong! I think this assumption is only your “twisted logic”, projecting your misunderstanding onto others. Can you find anything in the article you quoted (or any other article for that matter) where “they” (climate scientists, not random bloggers) come to such a conclusion?
REPLY: Your opinion is noted, that should not be taken as an endorsement. – Anthony
Oh noes. The earth has a fever – a fever, I tells yer! And what do we do? We poison its air. I’m sure that up in heaven baby Jesus is weeping like a McKibben.
@Tim Folkerts
Can you find anything in the article you quoted (or any other article for that matter) where “they” (climate scientists, not random bloggers) come to such a conclusion?
The article quotes
Because of that variability and imperfect historical records, scientists have not found a measurable trend in tornado intensity and number. However, with greater greenhouse pollution scientists expect changes. “The number of days when conditions exist to form tornadoes is expected to increase” as the world warms, atmospheric scientist Robert Trapp told Reuters.
This is in fact disingenuous. All the evidence points to a long term decrease in tornadic activity over the last 40 yrs.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/03/31/us-tornado-report-2011/
It also quotes
NASA climate scientist Anthony D. Del Genio wrote in 2011: “As the climate warms, we might experience fewer storms overall, but more of the strongest storms.” They have identified the risk of longer tornado seasons with stronger thunderstorms.
As shown above there has been no increase in stronger storms, and despite warmer weather in the US this year the season seems to be shorter not longer.
James Scott says:
Where was it hottest just the USA because in Scotland we have had practically No Summer at all.
This is the thing about so called climate change nobody gives accurate info about what is going on World Wide. Some Nations are getting colder weather is this just ignored.
What is wrong with you, James? The Northern Hemisphere is warming, and you should be able to perceive it! That is what Hansen’s new paper says, so it must be true.
Since 1955, the June-Aug temperature anomaly of the Northern Hemisphere increased from -0.09 to 0.45C. Are you telling me that you can’t perceive a 0.54C change in the integrated temperature field of half the planet, spread out over 55 years? Why not? That is almost 0.01C per year! You should be able to perceive that. Perhaps you are defective.
Evidently you are defective, because you seem all hung up on the weather that is happening in your immediate vicinity. Hansen says that real men are able to perceive global temperatures. You are a real man, arent you James? Perhaps you just need some help in interpreting what you see.
Here: Man made ‘global warming’ causes extreme heating of the atmosphere, and this causes changes in the jet stream and ocean currents which may result in cooler than average summers in Scotland, except when it causes them to be warmer. Look out the window – is it raining or is it dry? That’s global warming!
There. Do you perceive the warming now?
/sarcoff
Apologies to James. You aren’t defective. But Jim Hansen wants you to think you are, if you don’t see ‘global warming’ under every rock.
EternalOptimist says:
August 13, 2012 at 11:06 am
Jim asks what is the possible harm of 2-3 c temperature rise.
“You have to understand ‘tipping points’ jim. these little degrees will melt the tundra and put lots more water vapour into the atmosphere.”
(Ice puts moisture into the atmosphere as well, imagine that. Look it up.)
“Water vapour is a magnificent greenhouse gas, and will magnify your 2-3 degrees by a factor of lots.” (trying to think of places where the humidity is already close to 100% banana trees are a hint…lots of what? bananas??)
This will cause the oceans to boil (amazing…all those boiled fish, stewed clams as well) and will release even more water vapour. This process, once initiated, is irreversible. (Really?)
Once the world becomes a boiling mass, it is stuck like that, like Venus, forever. fixed. (…Venus…big atmosphere, more compression, more heat..the midwest US comes to mind suddenly)
It has happened to the earth 4 times (?) so far, when co2 levels were very high (irreversibly high?).
luckily, the previous 4 times, it made a full recovery. (viral immunity?)
Which is it: “irreversible” or “fixed” or “4 times, it made a full recovery.”
Guess we are “luckily” here.
Funny guy!
As the commenter above points out with links, I didn’t disappear or delete anything. I think what happens is that you may not be following me on twitter and so the replies don’t show up on your stream. Here’s a link to the phenomenon, which is apparently common: http://www.voiceoftech.com/swhitley/index.php/2010/05/those-lost-twitter-replies/
It’s also possibly something as simple as turning on the “All” instead of “No Replies” thing next to the “Tweets” button on your twitter home page
At any rate, they’re still up there, and have been the whole time
Anyway, here’s what I was trying to say in those tweets, in case anyone else is having the same problem.
1) I was aware that July was remarkably low for tornadoes, apparently because the heat was so intense and the drought so deep–in fact, I’d tweeted about this fact two days before your post
2) I was quoting Jeff Masters as saying fewer tornadoes was not a good tradeoff for this kind of drought and heat. Here’s a link to the article that says both of the above http://www.heraldandnews.com/article_90e490d2-e419-11e1-84eb-001a4bcf887a.html
3) In response to the other comments above, I’m not actually advising the Romney campaign
and 4) I will in fact be debating publicly on the question of climate risk on Nov. 5–the Center for Industrial Progress challenged me, and I accepted. http://www.masterresource.org/2012/07/debate-350-orgs-bill-mckibben-vs-cips-alex-epstein/ As you can see, the commenters there are convinced that my clock wil be cleaned, and perhaps they’re right.
Finally, let me just state for the record: I don’t think you were dishonest in this post–it was something to do with the way Twitter works internally, or the way you’d configured your account. Nor do I doubt your sincerity in general. I disagree with your position, and I think that if we stick with it and do nothing about global warming it will do great damage to creation, but as I’ve pointed out publicly, I think you’re an able advocate and have fought with great effect. http://www.tomdispatch.com/archive/175549/
Let me add as well that I was sad to read of the passing of your colleague Mr. Phelan, and moved by the tributes to him.
bill mckibben says:
August 13, 2012 at 1:32 pm
“…I think that if we stick with it and do nothing about global warming it will do great damage to creation…”
There is nothing mankind is doing to either warm the planet or cool the planet. My objection is there seems to be a mind set that the planet has never been as warm as it is today by many on your wagon, which simply is not the case. Also, the GHG gas myth is just that, a myth. Our atmosphere is an open system. Heat escapes into space; the same heat that is a direct absorption of solar radiance, not man made radiance. The heat is a reflection off the surface of the planet, not something we put there.
Taking my money to stop something that is a myth ain’t going to happen. Keeping 3rd world nations from development bases on CO2 myths is unconscionable. Turning modern man into an apologist is pathetic.
…and why is it that those CAGW folks resist, reject, and refuse to set an example. If you truly believe something is your fault then, best you fix your own house before you attempt to tread on mine.
tjfolkerts says:
There is no “global warming makes more tornadoes” argument in the linked article …”
Yes there is. In the first sentence:
“Carbon pollution from fossil fuels is poisoning the weather, helping drive the conditions that created the killer tornado outbreak last week across the heart of the United States.”
This echos the headline’s claim that global warming “poisoned” the weather and “fueled” the killer tornados. The clear intent of both, and the rest of the article for that matter, is to leave the impression that the existance not the timing, of those tornados was due to ‘global warming’. Only one sentence of that entire article addresses the fact that this is strictly a timing issue and not one of total numer and/or intentisty. It is buried near the bottom, and that single sentence is immediately followed by a “we expect” based refutation of same, followed by another full parpagraph “we might experience” based dimunition.
The ‘poisoned weather’ meme was not falsified by Nature. In fact, the dearth of later tornadoes would SUPPORT the hypothesis of GW affecting tornadoes.
Yes, the “poisoned weather” meme was falsified by Nature. “Poisoned” implies that things are getting worse, not that they are staying the same but occurring on a slightly different schedule. In fact, things didn’t stay the same – they got better. Does “poisoned” mean earlier and better?
No. “Poisoned”, “fuel”, “drive”, “created” – these are terms of extreme negativity and attribution of creation, not unchanging number and intensity.
BTW – where is the more recent Think Progress article with the headline “Healed Weather: Global Warming Brings Early End to Quietest Tornado Season in 60 Years”? You know, the one where they talk about the early end to the season, and fess up to the fact that their “We expect” expectations didn’t happen, and we did not in fact experience the the scary things they said “we might”?
What’s that? They didn’t write one?
Huh. Fancy that.
It is disingenuous of you to deny the clear take-home message of the TP article.
Clearly, the record tornadic activity is “in the pipeline,” lol.
JJ says: August 13, 2012 at 2:35 pm
tjfolkerts says >> There is no “global warming makes more tornadoes”
>>argument in the linked article …”
JJ says >Yes there is. In the first sentence:
>“Carbon pollution from fossil fuels is poisoning the weather, helping drive
>the conditions that created the killer tornado outbreak last week across
>the heart of the United States.”
Ah! you have to read carefully — as in “last week”. This article was written early in the tornado season, when not so many tornadoes would be expected. So there is a “global warming makes more tornadoes EARLY IN THE YEAR” conclusion explicitly stated in the article — “This year’s early start to tornado season is consistent with what we would expect from a warming climate.”. As I said earlier, my own quick look at tornado data suggests there are indeed more EARLY tornadoes and fewer LATE tornadoes.
There IS actually a bit of a “global warming makes more tornadoes” conclusion later in the article. I don’t personally have any expectations whether this would make more or fewer tornadoes overall — it seems different people have different expectations in this regard.
And as I also said, I would not have chosen “poisoned” as the adjective in that headline. It is indeed an unnecessarily loaded word. Perhaps something alliterative like “warped weather” or “altered atmosphere”. These are both much closer the the objective truth. And, yes, the article as a whole is clearly leaning in a particular direction … not surprising since they claim “Through this blog, CAPAF seeks to provide a forum that advances progressive ideas and policies.” They are free to do that, just like WUWT is welcome to post rebuttals from a different perspective .
Finally, this is ONE YEAR! No one expects climate change to be monotonically approaching some new state — significant year-to-year changes are to be expected. Let’s see if tornadoes keep shifting earlier in the year. Let’s see how the trend for total tornadoes goes in the next decade.
Give it up, Tim. It’s all just politics, pretending that human activity is the cause. Sorry, but no. It is all natural just variability. Let’s see you prove otherwise. If not, your old adversary the null hypothesis wins again.☺
tjfolkerts says:
Ah! you have to read carefully — as in “last week”. This article was written early in the tornado season, when not so many tornadoes would be expected.
I read it carefully. I knew when it was written. Everything I said stands, and none of what I said is even referenced by you. You are equivocating on the content of the article. It was written in a manner to allow people such as yourself to do that. Shameful propaganda technique.
So there is a “global warming makes more tornadoes EARLY IN THE YEAR” conclusion explicitly stated in the article
Yes, the “Ahh, but it also says”. There are all manner of things stated in the article. Some of them are perfectly reasonable statements and there is even some decent science mentioned in there. Most of it is crap, and that crap is on message. You are denying the clearly intended take-home message. See my last post.
There IS actually a bit of a “global warming makes more tornadoes” conclusion later in the article.
Yes, and also in the headline of the article, and in the first sentence of the article, and strewn throughout the article. The typical “climate science communication” strategy: take a big bowl of crap – unscientific statements, false insinuations, scary stories, exaggerations and outright lies. Mix in a handful of berries – true statements that appear to support the insinuations at first glance but really don’t upon detailed examination, true statements that contradict some of the crap in an oblique manner not easily understood by the layperson, etc. Then when someone complains about the crap, point to a berry.
And as I also said, I would not have chosen “poisoned” as the adjective in that headline. It is indeed an unnecessarily loaded word.
Yes, and the telling way you put it:
“I wouldn’t have used the word “poisioned”, but otherwise, I don’t see anything misleading about the headline.
LOL – other than the misleading part, you don’t find anything misleading about it. And other than the bowl of crap, its a berry sundae!
And, yes, the article as a whole is clearly leaning in a particular direction …
No. It isn’t leaning in a particular direction, it is leading in a particular direction. To the point: it leads the reader to the false conclusion that ‘global warming’ results in ‘more killer tornados’. That is the clearly intended take-home message.
And that is crap, and that is the crap that Anthony was quite correctly refuting, and none of your non-responsive berry talk even addresses that, let alone changes it. Anthony was correct. Deal with it.
A simple explanation..
ALL weather is driven by atmospheric differences. If the Arctic warms up more than the tropics, there is less “difference” to drive extreme weather events. (on a global average)
Unfortunately, that means less differences to move high pressure systems along, hence slightly longer periods of them nasty really hot periods. If they get stuck, the heat builds up, as y’all over there have just experienced.
ps.. consider this… If there were no differences in the atmosphere, there would be no “weather”
ummmmmmmmm !!! too much wine ..methinks 😉
Mr Lynn says: …It appears, however, that the entire exchange has been deleted from their Comments thread. Leastwise, I can’t find it.
I bookmark when I post on the wapo forum and archive it. I posted on a Glenn Kessler thread and rechecked a day later and my post was deleted so I reposted it. It was a list of democrats who signed the southern manifesto. They don’t like it when you ruin their narrative.
The claim that early season tornadoes are increasing also does not hold water.
The number of Jan – March tornadoes of F1+ averaged 70 from 2009-11. In the 1970’s the figure was 92 pa.
I live in Toronto. As of this past weekend it is abundantly clear that the summer heat wave is now over for southern Ontario. Today it is a high of 21C with rain and the rest of the week is not going to be hot. From a quick look at the rest of Canada you get a hodge podge of temperatures. Yellowknife has highs of 20-22 C this week. Whitehorse even warmer. Moosonee, way up in Northern Ontario warmer than Toronto. All of this will rapidly turn colder in September.
My sense is that we are going to have the same early cooling off that we did after Labor Day last year. It might end up being a very cold and wet winter. What to make of this? El Nino was entirely the major input to the long drought in the USA and the record floods in Japan and China. A few nights ago I watched an old 1995 documentary on plate techtonics. Showed how the Alvin sub went down to the bottom of the Mid Atlantic ridge and they saw their first glimpses of the small but very active “smokers”. The vents exhaust water and smoke at temperatures exceeding 720 F. What is not known even in the most smallest way is how many of these vents cover the vastness of the ocean floor, releasing hydrogen compounds, super heat, ash, lava and other compounds. Been going on for billions of years. No humans are involved. Yet it has an effect that we cannot even begin to measure.
Kelvin Vaughan says:
August 13, 2012 at 11:42 am
The UK has the greatest number of tornados in the world for its land size!
You, of course, have some published evidence for this statement?……No, I thought not.
@ David Jones
The UK has the greatest number of tornados in the world for its land size.
You, of course, have some published evidence for this statement?……No, I thought not.
Actually I am pretty sure I have read this somewhere, but for the life of me can’t remember where!!
Rest assured they are extremely tiny ones though.
I usually copy the comment and its URL onto a text document, but on this occasion I forgot to do it. Oh well.
/Mr Lynn
Sure there is! You could try pounding your feet with a hammer, or digging out earwax with a long glass sliver, or rinsing your eyes with mud, or …
Install the Lazarus Add-on (FF, Chrome, Safari). Saves every comment you type, and the URL of the form/post it’s in. I’ve set mine to retain for 54 weeks instead of 14 minute, so I can search then jump to anything I’ve entered over that period, or copy it to the Clipboard for pasting, etc.
P.S. to above: Saves live as you type, so if you “lose” the connection, or a post vanishes or fails to enter, a right-click gives you a context menu option to re-enter it instantly.
Further to my comment about the frequency of early season tornadoes, I have had a chance to crank some numbers out.
Although this year was obviously high, there is absolutely no trend in the last few years, if anything a decrease.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/08/15/are-early-season-tornadoes-increasing/#more-1502