Note the section about how he talks about better reporting through technology causing “report inflation.”, something I’ve covered time and again.
The folly of linking tornado outbreaks to “climate change”
– Anthony
From the National Center For Atmospheric Research:
Summertime, and the twisters are missin’
July heads for a record-low tornado count
Bob Henson | July 24, 2012 • Heat and drought are punishing much of the United States right now, but there’s actually some good weather news to report. This month is on track to produce fewer tornadoes than any July on record, and by a long shot.
As of July 23, this month has produced a paltry total of 14 tornado reports, according to preliminary data from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC). While there could be more twisters before month’s end, a major outbreak doesn’t appear likely at all.
The chart below shows just how unusual this month has been, compared to past Julys. Graphed in blue are the final July tornado counts from the 1950s (when modern records began) to 2011. The next-most-quiet July after 2012 is 1960, which saw a total of 42 tornadoes—three times what we’ve seen thus far this month. Many Julys have produced more than 100 twisters.
The results get even more interesting when you adjust the numbers for “report inflation.” Tornado reports have gradually increased since the 1950s, especially for weak twisters.
This appears to be a byproduct of the steady growth of interest in storm spotting and tornado chasing, along with the advent of inexpensive, high-quality digital photo and video tools. The attention and technology have combined to boost the reported numbers of weak tornadoes, whereas the strongest ones are being observed about as often as they were 50 or 60 years ago—a clue that it’s observing practice rather than climate change behind the trend.
Shown in red are the tornado counts as adjusted for report inflation by Harold Brooks (National Severe Storms Laboratory) and Greg Carbin (SPC). This procedure boosts the numbers in earlier years to replicate what might have been observed if Twitter, smartphones, and chase tours had been around at the time. The adjustment is smaller for more recent years, zeroing out for the current year. What this means is that the dearth of tornadoes in July 2012 becomes still more impressive. In the adjusted data, the quietest July is 2007, with 73 tornadoes—more than five times the current total for this month.
In fact, this month could end up producing fewer tornadoes than any month on record for meteorological summer (June, July, and August). Among these, the old record is 20, set in August 1957. The inflation-adjusted number for that month would be 39.
Drought at work
What’s going on? Clearly, this month’s vanishing act is related to the intense ongoing drought, which is the nation’s most widespread since the 1950s. If thunderstorms aren’t happening, you can’t get a tornado—but not all thunderstorms can produce twisters. Violent tornadoes, in particular, need a complex blend of upper-level winds, unstable air near the ground, and other ingredients still being studied. This month, where thunderstorms have managed to form, they’ve been largely of the scattered, “air mass” variety, driven by local instability and limited by the lack of strong upper-level winds.
The drought’s onset this spring is mirrored in the rapid dropoff of tornado activity shown in the inflation-adjusted graphic at the bottom of this page. After a spate of deadly twisters in early April, tornado counts were at near-record highs for the time of year. After that point, activity plummeted, and 2012 is now in the bottom quarter of years, as ranked by total tornadic activity through mid-July.
Interestingly, prior to 2012, the three most tornado-starved Julys in the adjusted data are 2002, 2006, and 2007. Both 2002 and 2006 were among the nation’s warmest 10 Julys in the last century, just as this one is shaping up to be. When a summer month is unusually hot, it generally means the polar jet stream has been shunted well to the north by domes of high pressure. That means less upper-level energy to fuel tornadic thunderstorms. Nontornadic storms (which rely less on wind shear and more on heat and moisture) may still pop up, assuming drought hasn’t taken hold.
Even without taking inflation into account, there’s no doubt tornadoes have been remarkably scant this month. For residents of the U.S. heartland, where the drought and heat are laying waste to crops and yards, that’s at least something to be grateful for.
Gee, do you think the MSM will cover this? Naw, me neither.
This is all exactly as the models predicts…[they’re being updated as I type]…
The lack of tornadoes caused by the drought is obvious global warming. If there were alot of tornadoes, it would also be global warming. If there was an average of tornadoes, it would also be global warming as each and every tornado would receive “Unprecedented” news coverage
The Atlantic Ocean seems pretty quiet also.
“Bob Henson | July 24, 2012 • Heat and drought are punishing much of the United States right now…..”
============================
Without the drought you wouldn’t have got the heat.
It is hard to warm water vapor.
Merely a facet of man-made climate extremes……surely?
Too hot/cold/wet/dry…..etc…
Makes sense. Serious tornados happen at the edge of a MOVING front. We have droughts and floods this year because nothing is MOVING.
Ken in Beaverton, OR says:
July 25, 2012 at 7:25 pm
“The Atlantic Ocean seems pretty quiet also.”
I was just going to mention that in a comment but you beat me to it. Of course, things don’t really get going hurricane-wise in the Atlantic until August…
Having our first thunderstorm of the summer, in Southern Ontario. Thankfully that means RAIN.It is because a cold front is moving in, so something is moving.
Right after the March outbreak, I stated loudly that this season would tank based on the 400 mb methodology I have been developing. I presented all of this, including the hurricane linkage with the low ACE idea for the atlantic this year south of 22.5 north, at ICCC7 in my keynote speech. Currently I am looking at spring 400 mb temps and linkage to drought.. very interesting how the driest areas at that level in march are very strong indicators of where the driest areas will be in the summer.. I keep reminding folks not to be pompous, but because I actually presented the methodology for all to see before the fact, and well before initially the tornado season crashed. As a matter of fact it as after the march outbreak when all the hysteria cut loose about another globl warming induced season that I showed this on Weatherbell.
I really feel that there is something to this and I like putting research out to test in front of folks. I dont know if people recall, but the ICCC7 talk did include this
cheers
Virtually all heat waves are caused by blocking high pressures systems. The heat wave is caused because the descending air, and associated adiabatic heating in the blockng HIgh inhibits normal convection that normallyy ventilates the heat. The same mechanism inhibits tornadoes.that are spawned by intense convection. You can only get one extreme weather event or the other, no matter how much CO2 is pumped into the atmosphere.
This could change tomorrow and the day after tomorrow; The SPC’s Convective Outlook webpage for Day 1 and Day 2 has “Moderate Risk” areas defined …
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
A lot of welcome rain falling across the midwest (Michigan into Wisconsin, into Iowa) down into Kansas tonight too.
.
It`s obvious , the missing tornadoes are in the same place as Trenberth`s missing heat , They`re all hiding in the deep ocean dodging argo floats together :o)
I found this recent paper quite interesting and thought to share.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012JD017557.shtml
but… but… but… what about the studies in these reports?http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-08-31-severe-storms_N.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-12-03-severe-thunderstorms_N.htm
See here it is, right here: “Although the typically stormy spring could see more storms, “summer should have the highest increases in severe weather,” says Trapp”
and you know it must be true since the it is based on computer models using CO2 predictions from the IPCC, they would never put anything out there that I shouldnt believe would they?
Just an addendum to the effects of blocking high pressure systems, heat waves and suppressed tornadoes. Regards the sudden melt over Greenland, it was similarly the result of a high pressure system becoming entrenched over Greenland. Although blocking highs generate heat waves, in the winter record snowfalls are also caused when these highs block normal storm tracks. If that “massive melt” signals the tendency for high pressure systems to intensify over Greenland, Europe is in for a very cold winter as has historically been the case.
Joe Bastardi I am curious what you saw in your 400 mb methodology to make this prediction. Do you have a link?
We discussed today whether it was the drought which caused the heat or the heat which caused the drought. We concluded that the absence of clouds drove the surface temperature up. The return of clouds will send the temperature down again.
We have had 30 days of +30 Click in Waterloo so far. It partly makes up for 2010 when we had only 2. What a miserable summer that was.
Jim, there is a little more to it than that, such as the transport of sensible heat (via ‘heated’ surface air in the boundary layer) to cooler latitudes and vice versa; not all transport of ‘heat’ (thermal) energy is via convective, rain-producing ‘events’ (e.g. thunderstorms, summer showers, hurricanes etc) higher into the atmosphere. (I don’t know where you are in your education regarding meteorology, but if I can put it constructively, it may be time for a good college-level text book on the subject …)
Regards and keep at it.
For the past week it was very evident that a High was centered over roughly Kansas; descending ‘air’ in this high kept skies clear along with the “adiabatic heating” Jim Steele points out above contributing to the higher temperatures.
If you can find a website capable of displaying WV (water vapor) imagery in loops (of 1 to say 12 hrs length) the circulation about the high in the center of the country shows up most prominently.
This site will let you go back in time about five days: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/
.
OT? Sorta, sorta not: Oh noes, extreme weatherz due to climate change destroying infrastructure! (this baby might be worthy of it’s own post, the plethora of examples of how we are destroying ourselves and all the adaptation we are doing to survive…)
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/us/rise-in-weather-extremes-threatens-infrastructure.html?_r=1
Here is a good loop of the aforementioned phenom:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ICT&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20120722&endTime=6&duration=12
Set the “Set Animation Speed” (slider bar) to about 5/8 of the way to the right (to speed things up) and the CW (clockwise) rotating ‘High’ shows will show up most prominently to the human eye.
PS. The animation facilities of the above website required Java to be installed; thjs seems to be included/installed with most browsers there days so this should not be an issue …
.
[SNIP: Enough of the music videos. -REP]
Anthony: Didn’t you mean “before,” not “after,” in:
“The next-most-quiet July after 2012 is 1960,”
[REPLY: Roger, read the sentence again. The wording is correct. -REP]
OK, guys.
Is the line of t-strorms headed for Chicago, going to weaken ?
Or produce another headline, within about 2-3 hours.
Looking pretty nasty.
They look like they are moving at least 60 MPH.
Interpreting the SPC’s latest Mesoscale Discussion: not weaken .. at least not until 3 AM or so and until the MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) would seem to ‘unwind’
Per Mesoscale Discussion #1596 (just in minutes ago)
– – – – – – – – – – –
AREA: .EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/FAR NORTHERN IL ..
CONCERNING: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520…523…
VALID 26 04:34Z – 26 06:00Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520 … 523 … CONTINUES.
SUMMARY…SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 520/523 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z/08Z RESPECTIVELY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT FROM FAR EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI/EXTREME NORTHERN IL. ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH EXPANSION.
DISCUSSION…A LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES TO NEAR THE MS RIVER VICINITY OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI AS OF 0415Z…WITH AID OF EXTENSIVE TRAILING PRECIPITATION/COLD POOL…LIKELY MCV INFLUENCES…AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET/MEAN WESTERLIES.
STRONG/SEVERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED COMMON…WITH 53 KT MEASURED GUST AT CEDAR RAPIDS IA AND A 49 KT MEASURED GUST AT IOWA CITY OVER THE PAST HOUR /SINCE 0345Z/. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER CINH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…EXISTING ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE MCS/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND RESIDUAL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY IN VICINITY OF WSW-ENE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A DAMAGING WIND/SOME HAIL THREAT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI/FAR NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY/REPETITIVE RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL.
..GUYER.. 07/26/2012
– – – – – – – – –
From: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1596.html
_Jim says:
July 25, 2012 at 9:50 pm
========
At this moment it looks like the convection is moving into southern Wisconsin, of course my main radar is out, for now ?, looks like a hard gust front is already breaking down.
Then again, it is 1.5 hours out, so who knows.
[SNIP: So DeanL and EXP have been resurrected as TheInquirer with the same old snark and same old lack of substance. Come back when you have something intelligent to say. -REP]
Jm said, “there is a little more to it than that, such as the transport of sensible heat (via ‘heated’ surface air in the boundary layer) to cooler latitudes and vice versa; not all transport of ‘heat’ (thermal) energy is via convective, rain-producing ‘events’ (e.g. thunderstorms, summer showers, hurricanes etc) higher into the atmosphere. (I don’t know where you are in your education regarding meteorology, but if I can put it constructively, it may be time for a good college-level text book on the subject …)
Dear Jim,
Thanks so much for your condescending reply, and I too am not sure where you are in your meteorological education, but your reply wasn’t very helpful nor to the point. Of course there is more to it, but that is the domain of the textbook, not a bog post. The observation remains that tornadoes form in supercells with strong vertical wind shear that intensifies rapidly as it gains in height. Suppressed convection always accompanies heat waves but it doesn’t become a heat wave unless the passing of normal weather systems stall. THe high that lingered over “tornado alley” and generated the recent heat waves also suppressed the conditions involved n tornadogenesis . I’d be curious what textbook you have that would say otherwise.
Solar cycle 23 was 12 1/2 years long. Where I live in the Ozark Mountains we lost a noticeable amount of trees to drought and drought related diseases/parasites 10 years into it. Now we have lost a lot of trees of all sizes and we are only 3 1/2 years into cycle 24. Joplin, Missouri is doing bucket brigades trying to save trees still standing after the tornado damages. On my land we are doing it, at least until the well and pond dries up. A few are already gone it appears. Our trees used to be spectacular but since about 2005, ice storm damage, wind and drought have taken a heavy toll.
http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html
.
It is just as I have been saying for years. Increased tornado activity is not caused by heat (temperature), and therefore is not caused by so-called Global Warming.
Tornado activity is caused by a differential temperature, not an absolute temperature. This is why tornados are so common on frigid Mars. What the USA lacks at present is a differential temperature and some moisture in the atmosphere. Were a cold front to sweep down from the north, combined with the current high temperatures and a moist airflow from the Gulf, the results would be spectacular.
.
A mere 90% drop is surely within the margin of error to be consistent with AGW at the 90% confidence level?!? Just about anything else is …
Crispin:
We discussed today whether it was the drought which caused the heat or the heat which caused the drought. We concluded that the absence of clouds drove the surface temperature up. The return of clouds will send the temperature down again.
————————————————————
You have to look higher up. The surface weather is driven by the jetstreams, which channel huge amounts of atmosphere around the globe.
In the US the jetstreams are currently high up over Canada, leaving the USA dominated by high pressure and fine clear weather. In Europe they were dipping southwards all summer, down the Atlantic and into the Mediterranean, and bringing low pressure after low pressure (in the summer, they should normally be north of Scotland). Thus the US has had fine, hot dry weather, while NW Europe has had the coldest, wettest summer in 300 years.
The real question here, is what alters the path of the jetstreams. Ever since the sunspot cycle weakened, the jet streams have gone south by 500 km or so over Europe, giving us cold dry winters. This is the same as happened during the Maunder minimum – but of course it is impossible to know what the jetstreams were doing during the Maunder. However, the possibility exists, and it needs investigating further, that low Sunspot cycles allow the jetstreams to move south. This would give all the conditions needed for a colder climate in northern regions, and the extension of the northern ice-cap.
.
This is exactly what we’d expect to see in the new normal of a warming world, which makes it all much worse than we thought. P.S. Send more money.
Right on que, there’s a morning thunderstorm here in western MD. After a bone-dry March/April, 14.85″ rain since May 1st. Locally the corn is 6′ tall, tasseling & doing well, despite some hot/dry spells.
Strawman argument; that point is not in contention (see, if we had that ‘common basis’ for discussion like more complete knowledge of meteorology this ‘confusion’ would not exist.)
The ‘high’ that existed basically suppressed ALL convective activity, not simply ‘tornado genesis’, except that convective activity occurring near the periphery of that ‘rotating high’, and then that ‘activity’ didn’t produce the persistent supercells capable of ‘tornado genesis’ either … this is easily observed if you’re into observational meteorology via the plethora of near real-time tools with ‘looping’ capability and something with nationwide scale capable of showing IR (observing for those cold cloud-tops that are indicative of supercells) or WV (water vapor) imagery ans one gets a good active ‘view’ of mid and high level moisture movement.
BTW, it sounds like you may have been to more than one NWS-conducted SKYWARN class, but, meteorology encompasses a lot more than they can cover in full day even.
As I posted before, regards, and keep at.
PS. A couple of good texts available used (this means substantial price savings over new) “Meteorology Today” by Ahrens (I have the 7 ed they are up to 8 or so) and “Understanding Weather and Climate” by Aguado and Burt (3rd edition in hand but there are later eds) … Amazon can be kinda pricey on these used even but they can be found used at 2nd hand book shops …
.
All my life, tornadoes have been caused when you have air masses of different temperatures and pressures plowing into each other causing atmospheric mixing and turbulence which usually causes super cell thunderstorms in the spring, summer and fall. Since, it’s been pretty clear that we don’t have many moving air masses of different temperature and pressures this summer … it should also be pretty obvious that we won’t have many tornadoes.
From the body of the post which appears to be from NCAR:
“What’s going on? Clearly, this month’s vanishing act is related to the intense ongoing drought, which is the nation’s most widespread since the 1950s. If thunderstorms aren’t happening, you can’t get a tornado—but not all thunderstorms can produce twisters.”
Since only one example is needed to disprove a statement, I suggest that the author research the December 5, 1975 tornado in Tulsa, Oklahoma. I had just returned home and remarked about the unusual weather. It was quite warm and humid with almost no breeze. Shortly thereafter, the tornado formed about a mile north of us and proceeded to demolish quite a few buildings. There was still very little breeze at my location and we did not get any rain. There was at least one very good 8 mm film of the tornado which was intensively studied by weather people since there were very few clouds (if any) obscuring the suspended debris which gave excellent data on wind velocities in the funnel itself. Since it was significantly cooler after the tornado, I am assuming that we had a temperature inversion and a few million tons of hot humid air found a way to swap places with a cold layer above it.
I apologize that I have been unable to find what the actual temperatures and humidities were before and after, but even official observations (which I do not know how to find) would have been at the airport which is several miles away and I think that this was a very localized event. My recollection is that the damage was confined within a half mile radius and may have been significantly smaller than that.
They (the tornados) have just moved North into Canada. Saskatewan (a province in Canada) has seen way more tornados than normal.
couldn’t this technically be referred to as extreme weather? 🙂
I just posted this on Mann’s facebook page. He might be enough of a narcissist to think I’m on his side.
As someone who holds truth and justice in the highest esteem, I think you should move ahead with your lawsuit against Mr. Steyn and the National Register as quickly as possible. I think we’d all like to see the bluster, rhetoric and name calling come to an end and have actual facts win out.
They went to Canada. http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Saskatchewan+sees+average+tornado+numbers+doubled+this+year/6991209/story.html
Wow … look how the Mesoscale Discussion webpage has lit up (3:27 PM EDT 7-26-2012):
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/ (webpage w/dynamic image)
Static (captured) image of above: http://i47.tinypic.com/jzxrad.jpg (frozen in time Thu afternoon)
.
Yes recent tornado activity has been happening in Saskatchewan. There have been 30 recorded observations across the pronce in recent weeks, which is above normal. The conditions for this type of weather activity is perfect as we have had high heat and high moisture. The blocking high in the US has moved tornado alley to the north.
And right on cue, we have a line of severe weather moving through northeastern Pennsylvania, tornado warnings, cells with rotation, etc. TV just said there was a confirmed tornado in Elmira, New York. Looks like it’ll hit New Jersey, if not hitting the top of it right now. Right now the wind is arriving, although the tornado warnings are barely to the north part of my county.
Oh Anthony, why did you have to post this and give notice to Hansen to fire up NASA’s Weather Maker satellite before the month was out? What did Hansen do, crank it to 11?
And there went the power! Hope the laptop keeps working.
Wish me luck!
So…..the low tornado count is….unprecedented? Then it must be due to climate change and catastrophe is soon to follow.
We on the PA/NY borderlands are doing our part to raise the total. I’ve heard of at least two (2) confirmed reports of tornadoes this afternoon. One west of Wellsboro, PA and another near Elmira, NY. There may have been more.
We on the borderlands of PA and NY are doing our best to up the count of July tornadoes. I’ve heard that this afternoon’s squall line produced two (2) confirmed twisters. One was west of Wellsboro, PA and the other near Elmira, NY. There may have been more as this was one violent front!
[REPLY: Take no chances and stay safe. -REP]
With the drought, the tornadoes have moved farther north. They have been a regular feature across mainly western Canada. In the other post on thunderstorms and the ozone layer, tornadoes were used as proxy for thunderstorms (because of few stats). I noted that the present looks a lot like the early 50s as a precursor of the ensuing 30 years of more abundant tornadoes. It’s not enough to po0h-pooh the lack of tornadoes – they will be back and I’m predicting we will see a lot more in the coming few decades.