From Spaceweather.com
The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday’s X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud’s expected arrival time to 09:17 UT (5:17 am EDT) on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely.
I wonder if we’ll see any here in Iraq….? That would be a treat.
Hopefully Oregon will have some. I have only seen it in Alaska in Sept. 2008.
And as usual, north west England is clouded over – sigh…
I’m buying extra batteries for my transistor radio. I already have tinfoil and bottled water.
I am reading this announcment under my bed
Finally! I have somehow managed to miss a whole series of Aurora over the years. Tonight, we’ll be at the cottage, off of Parry Sound, Lake Huron, where the nearest town is 30 miles away! Just wish the camera was good enough for night photography…
Predicted big solar events are always fizzles. Big solar events only happen when they’re not predicted.
There were different predictions in the space weather forecasting between NOAA and NASA for this event which were discussed in a Washington Post blog.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/solar-storm-incoming-federal-agencies-provide-inconsistent-confusing-information/2012/07/13/gJQAkm06hW_blog.html
There is an interesting reply from NASA to the WP blogger at the bottom of the article, here are two excerpts:
“NOAA’s methods have more test and validation history and so properly make up an operational system. NASA’s job is to continually improve the state of the art in space weather understanding.”
“Those that depend on space weather information are always advised to consult (NOAA’s) official predictions. Those that enjoy witnessing the progress of science and our nation’s ability to continuously improve on its prediction capabilities will also enjoy following the work of the NASA researchers as they enable the creation of our nation’s next generation prediction systems.”
It sounds like space weather forecasting is an area NASA is trying to expand into, another being climate forecasting (troublemaking).
What NASA appears to be abandoning is space exploration. Which leads to the question: What use then is NASA? All they are now is a NOAA wannabe.
I wonder if this might mean it is more intense than Leif originally though, just more concentrated.
Aaron, are you clear on the meanings of intensity and concentration? Intensity is concentration, specifically in space or time. Concentration is the more general term for the ratio of stuff to not-stuff.
The Carrington Event of 1859, Solar Cycle 10, induced auroras visible in Hawaii and Cuba. It was of arguable X-Class magnitude, sometimes X-25 to X-55!
Well, this CME event has not completely ‘killed’ radio; just scored a 2,083 km spot to a station off to my northeast on 6m WSPR (wsprnet.org for more info):
2012-07-14 14:52 WBxyyy 50.294440
SNR=-15 dB
Grid_Square=EM13qc
Pwr=50W
Station_Spotting=N2NOM
Grid_Sqare=FN22bg
Path_Length=2083km
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Hm, lost internet service for a while last night. Wonder if a wee surge blipped something. A modem/router reboot re-established service. So it wasn’t even a micro-Carrington, I guess!
What might be termed an ‘upset’ in the local device (cosmic ray cross just the right transistor in a logic gate and at *just* the right moment?); not quite a similar event happen to one of my two DSL routers: one device ‘forgot’ an important parameter and would not connect … this was after a power down and power up cycle; after some detective work and with the correct parameter(s) back in ‘her’ all was well …switched to the other (what was a backup or spare) after that though …
Chalk it up to a 1 in a ‘millyun’ event in any case with an unknown root cause affecting either the ‘executing’ firmware or the hardware directly.
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10m band is recovering now from event; WSPR spots showing up from up and down the east coast and midwest to the south now and some spots by stations trans-equatorial to S. America (e.g. to Brazil and Uruguay) … I am still getting an occasional spot here in the US on 6m as well.
WSPR homepage: http://wsprnet.org/drupal/
“The Weak Signal Propagation Reporter Network [WSPR] is a group of amateur radio operators using K1JT’s MEPT_JT digital mode to probe radio frequency propagation conditions …”
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Concentrated:Focused