Well it seems the Gulf Coast is in for a wet and windy start of the week. It will be interesting to see what hype the media tries to make out of this storm. I wonder if they learned anything from the overhype of hurricane tropical storm Irene last year?
Here’s the latest tracks and bulletins:
Live Tracking map:
Tracking map in high definition (updates every 3-4 hours, click to enlarge)
Track map in HiDef – click to enlarge:
I’m not too worried about it becoming a hurricane:
Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data: 0.1 degree .shp 0.5 degree .shp ![[Image of probabilities of hurricane force winds]](https://i0.wp.com/www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0412_PROB64_F120_sm2+gif/152438.gif?resize=500%2C400)
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 ...DEBBY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 86.2W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE CENTER OF DEBBY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H. THE LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Awwwww, c’mon. Now that the result of the Rio Green Slime-fest is a secret, we need something to hype!
Not much of an eye. Where did it come from? The Atlantic looks a bit cold for it to be the corridor from W. Africa. I guess they can develop locally over warm water.
Will any rain bands reach Texas? They always celebrate a bit of precip.
Thanks Anthony. June storms make me think of busy 2005. We stayed and watched Dennis come ashore in the panhandle after we boarded up. To this day it is one of my kids fondest memories. More so than trips.
That part of Florida is the highest point in state with 40 foot dunes most people always thought would protect them. Force of water comes in and then just goes vertical and the force gradually takes out lineal foot after foot of dunes. Dennis took out 5 lineal feet including the crest.
Worst storm you could be out in because it was a tropical storm where we were but had gotten as high as a 4.
The ocean always wins.
It formed in the Gulf of Mexico.
Having first hand experience anchoring for Irene in a creek south of kingston, NY, which i later discovered drained an 1100 square mile watershed including parts of New Jersey, I can assure you that the effects were not trivial even if the windspeeds officially reported never met the criteria anticipated in the hype.
Anthony, why risk diminishing your credibility with a likely accurate but very term-specific criticism of the quality of the forecasts when the storm had isolated but significant adverse effects from North Carolina northward? Some of us could have used some insight into the possible effects of a whole lot of water showing up in a very short period. But over-hyped? maybe only in California.
Maybe Dr. Mann will publicly state that the intense rainfall from Debby is due to global warming that caused the Gulf of Mexico to be abnormally warmer than usual.
That’s what he stated regarding the recent US storm named Irene (tropical storm, I think).
Here’s the latest (today’s) SST anomaly plots. Doesn’t look very much warmer (if any) to me.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
Ah Little Debbie. With respect to “I’m not too worried about it becoming a hurricane”, you never know if these things are going to spin up, or die off.
The hype should be surrounding the clueless models this week. They are still currently flipping coins for forecasting purposes. Heads – East,,,,,,, Tails – West 🙂
j ferguson says:
June 24, 2012 at 10:45 am
Having first hand experience anchoring for Irene in a creek south of kingston, NY, which i later discovered drained an 1100 square mile watershed including parts of New Jersey, I can assure you that the effects were not trivial even if the windspeeds officially reported never met the criteria anticipated in the hype.
Anthony, why risk diminishing your credibility with a likely accurate but very term-specific criticism of the quality of the forecasts when the storm had isolated but significant adverse effects from North Carolina northward? Some of us could have used some insight into the possible effects of a whole lot of water showing up in a very short period. But over-hyped? maybe only in California.
Amen to that, cut off by floods for two days at home, many townships far worse, no power for 48hrs (many off for as much as a week).
John Norris says:
June 24, 2012 at 10:53 am
Ah Little Debbie. With respect to “I’m not too worried about it becoming a hurricane”, you never know if these things are going to spin up, or die off.
How about a direction? The highly refined, ultra accurate and mega expensive computers that state that we should bow to the Lords of Anthropogenic Global Warming have this to say about where it goes…
GeoLurking
But at least they admit it.
“WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al04/al042012.discus.005.shtml?
In Hansen-supporter lingo, they are setting the groundwork for being able to say “We were right!….once we figured out where we were wrong.”
It is fun trying to figure out if it will go east or west. It is sort of like a marble rolling up a rise: If it gets over the crest it will roll down to the east, but if it fails to get over the crest it will roll back to the west.
What really drives the forecasters nuts is when it gets to the crest, and just teeters there, neither going east nor west. In that case it is like flipping a coin, and having it land on its edge.
Another thing that must drive the forecasters crazy is the fact it is not a nice, solid marble. The center keeps reforming. The old center dwindles away, and a new one wraps up. Each time it does this it is like the “center of the marble” jumps east or west fifty miles, and the computer has to recalculate everything based on a new “center of the marble.” So the model can say it is rolling east at noon, and an hour later say it is heading west, until the poor forecaster is just about ripping his hair out.
It is very humbling to anyone who thinks we have chaos figured out. And, while it is fun to watch the storm, it is sometimes even more fun to watch the forecasters.
GeoLurking says:
June 24, 2012 at 11:45 am
——–
ain’t it the truth?
Warning for those who live in a submarine. Screen doors on a submarine may not keep the water out. Recommended precaution is to keep the doors above sea level.
In the town where i was born,
There lived a man,
Who sailed the seas,
And he told us of his life,
In the land of Submarines,
So we sailed into the sun,
Till’ we found a sea of green,
And we lived beneath the waves,
In our yellow submarine,
-Chorus-
We all live in a yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine,
We all live in a yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine.
And my friends are all aboard,
Many more of them live next door,
And the band begins to play,
( a band plays a short song )
-Chorus-
We all live in a yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine,
We all live in a yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine.
And we live a life of ease,
Everyone of us,
Has all we need,
Sky of blue (echo) Sky of blue
And sea of green (echo) Sea of green
In our yellow (echo) In our yellow
Submarine (echo) submarine!
-Chorus-
We all live in a yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine,
We all live in a yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine,
A yellow submarine.
Was there a ‘vision’ by the Beatles in these lyrics in the day? Or not.
The local TV stations told us to expect rain yesterday (Space Coast) but nothing happened. Finally the rain is here a day late and a dollar short. More of a sprinkle than a torrent.
I found the link below to be quite impressive because it is consistent with what happened here yesterday and today. I wonder how good the forecast for tomorrow and the day after will turn out to be.
Notice how the heaviest rain fell over the Gulf of Mexico and early next week is forecast to be off the east coast of Florida:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/06/23/debby-does-padre-island/
Gary Pearse says:
June 24, 2012 at 9:53 am
Where did it come from?
=======================================================================
George Bush, of course. Just ask Al Gore.
Phil. says: June 24, 2012 at 11:14 am
I had a conversation much like this with Joe Bastardi in Chicago last month. I live on the shore just outside of New Haven harbor and remarked about Irene being “over-hyped”. Joe gave me a sit-down lecture, in almost excruciating detail, about why my experience of the storm was different than that of someone like you. If nothing else, I came away with the realization that Joe not only knows his hurricanes, he is passionate about them.
While I came away from the conversation with a sense that perhaps I am a bit too sanguine about tropical storms (hey, the waves were impressive, but they never did reach the road between my house and the beach) I am also convinced that the question we should be asking is why were we so unprepared? It has been quite a few years since the North East has been hit by a truly powerful storm (Joe would be able to tell us exactly when and just how powerful it was and lots, lots more), but I’m convinced that the discussions about the storm, pointing to the damage, suggesting that climate change is at work, is a convenient smokescreen for the failure by both utilities and civil authorities to deal with the aftermath.
I’m glad I’m not forecasting this one. Barely developed, near the coast, no clear driver.
Just been alerted by our national broadcaster in Australia that Debby is the fourth ‘cyclone’ this month which they say is ‘unprecedented’ for June. Can anyone verify?
We had three tornadoes in the last two days, Today’s cut power for the morning.
None were that big, fortunately.
Robert E. Phelan says:
June 24, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Serves you right! You coastal dwellers live in fear of wind and surge, but us inland folks learn (usually the hard way) that a stalled tropical storm overhead is bad, bad news. Some of the worst flooding has come from storms that never reached hurricane status.
Vermont was much more damaged that New Hampshire. The biggest impact to me were a couple washouts that made access to our yurt on Mt Cardigan problematic. “Vermont ain’t flat,” as any bicyclist will tell you, and several important roads follow river valleys. They and towns along them were severely impacted. The best photos I’ve see are at http://www.mansfieldheliflight.com/flood/index.html
The references to Rt 100 have special meaning to me, as it’s the central route through Vermont, and a wonderful road for bicycle touring. Except for the northernmost southernmost which are very annoyingly “not flat”.
The easy part of that answer is to compare the current AMO induced active period (starting in 1995) with the last one.
We’ve had nothing like the Hurricane of 1938, Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, Carol (1954), Edna (1954), and Donna (1960). Plus several close calls and some that had more impact on downeast Maine and Canada than Connecticut.
As for why we haven’t had anything like that so far, I tell people we’ve just been incredibly lucky Joe D’Aleo agreed with me about that, and I expect Joe B would too.
Heck, some of the storms we had during the negative AMO have been more impressive than the recent active period, e.g. Gloria (1985), Bob (1991), and Floyd (1999).
Might want to remove or update the data so folks don’t think these are current. Looks like it might be relegated to frog strangler before it’s over.
kasphar says: “Just been alerted by our national broadcaster in Australia that Debby is the fourth ‘cyclone’ this month which they say is ‘unprecedented’ for June. Can anyone verify?”
We are running ahead of schedule on the count of storms so far (why does Australia care about Atlantic Storms?) but I would read to much into it. Debbie has set a record for earliest fourth storm of the season, beating out 2005’s Hurricane Dennis (July 5). But keep in mind that counts of total storms are almost certainly higher today than they would have been before satellites: the past is under-counted. So we can’t say for sure whether this peculiar statistic-early storms-is really “unprecedented” IMAO.
Anyway, it’s still early in the season. Since I kinda doubt that the seasonal forecasts of all the major groups (including Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray) are going to be wildly wrong, I expect the season to slow down when El Nino really gets going.
Ric Werme says: “Heck, some of the storms we had during the negative AMO have been more impressive than the recent active period, e.g. Gloria (1985), Bob (1991), and Floyd (1999).”
Um…AMO switched Postive in 1995, you said so yourself, so Floyd (1999) ain’t from the negative AMO period…
Everyone: the GFS model has been showing for two days that this storm will move to the eastern Gulf and come ashore near Apalachicola Fl. Everyone else including local Tampa weather forecasters followed the other models and predicted a western route towards Texas. In my experience here in Florida, GFS is the only model I rely on and has been right on the money 99% of the time I have been watching it. It is the red model on Weather Underground. Before everyone gets arguing about wind etc, one death has occurred in Highlands County, east of Tampa due to a spin off tornado. I am south of Tampa and we have had good amounts of rain, but not too much and gusty winds but we are pretty clear of the main area of what ever this turns into.
timetochooseagain
Thanks. Our national broadcaster likes to add little bits of information like this to remind us of ‘climate change’ and ‘unprecedented climatic events’, especially on the eve of our national CO2 tax introduction.
For those who don’t think Irene was over hyped because of the flood damage she did should remember just WHAT was being projected – remember storm surge, Manhatten under water, glass shards in hurricane force winds? That Irene could dump tons of water in the form of rain and cause inland flooding wasn’t addressed much at all — not sexy enough, I guess.
timetochooseagain says:
June 24, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Um…AMO switched Postive in 1995, you said so yourself, so Floyd (1999) ain’t from the negative AMO period…
Oops, right. I also meant to include the Wiki link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_hurricanes I did mean to stop with Bob, as Floyd wasn’t much more than a day of rain at my daughters start-of-school camp in Massachusetts. However, it did bring some flooding to Connecticut so it just sort of stayed in the list.
Floyd was the worst storm before Irene, I believe.
My friends, it’s been a lovely, drizzly day here in Orlando, Florida (copyright belonging to Disney, I think.) Growing up in the Midwest, I could never have imagined the truly sensuous nature of a warm rain shower. The rain that fell on me in Illinois in the early 50’s was cold, and chilled me to the bone. Today I walked in the rain gifted to me from TS-ish Debby, to a bistro not half a mile away, and was then glad for the air-conditioning. More Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, please.
Grammy would like for me to check on the condition of Arrrgh Gates. I haven’t found much to read to her lately, and she is concerned. She still has that Johnny-Depp-bad-boy-thing going, and wants to bake him some cookies. I’m not allowed to have cookies. Any information would be helpful.
Grampa Henry.
kasphar says: “Our national broadcaster likes to add little bits of information like this to remind us of ‘climate change’ and ‘unprecedented climatic events’, especially on the eve of our national CO2 tax introduction.”
It’s a pretty disingenuous thing to do.Given the number of weather events that occur on planet every day, at least one is bound to be a “record” especially as our ability to record weather events in remote places, and to identify them more accurately/precisely increases. There will never be a day when someone can’t claim “unusual” weather has occurred somewhere.
Is Debby a subtropical or extratropical like previous one(s) this season? It seems to match the description they had used. More categories makes it more interesting.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz………..
Mann and Hansen do a “very-scary climate change” re-make of “Debby does Dallas”.
SSDD.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz………..
Henry Phipps says:
June 24, 2012 at 6:07 pm
Grammy would like for me to check on the condition of Arrrgh Gates. I haven’t found much to read to her lately, and she is concerned.
—————————————————————
“Arrrgh” posts fairly regularly over at Dr. Curry’s place. He is apparently well.
The rain from Irene in New England states is often brought up in discussions and has been here on this thread. You would be led to believe it was measured in feet. Were the totals 3″ or 8″ or over a foot?
Does anyone have a link to the rainfall totals over Vermont, Connecticut, and New Hampshire that were delivered by the Super Hurricane Irene. Average hourly, daily, and storm totals would be interesting.
I had it all saved but lost all after old computer croaked.
Compare Irene totals with much less hyped storm several weeks later (Lee ?) that passed through from the gulf. Was the difference in inches or feet?
Rain is rain, but the extreme winds of Irene were absolutely devastating. /sarc
Maybe someone told the NHC to tell a fable with regards to Irene. Maybe now the NHC will call it the best they can and tell no more fables. I trust that will now be the case. Credibility and fables do not run hand in hand.
Hopefully little Debby will not go ballistic and strike those living below sea level in a submarine with screen doors (New Orleans) and instead just deliver a little rain to someone who needs it. I could use an inch or two.
Home Video of Tropical Storm Debby’s power hitting Bayshore Ave. in downtown Tampa, FL! http://liveoncampus.com/wire/show/3388773 It’s scary!
eyesonu says:
June 24, 2012 at 9:13 pm
It wasn’t a Super Hurricane. It doesn’t have to be to wash something away,
Visit http://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/ , pick a map style, select days around 8/28/2011. You can get tabular data at http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx Observers’ comments are moderately interesting too, see http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyComments.aspx
Total rainfall was less than the southeast can get, but enough for the thin soils of New England. We can’t buffer a lot of rainwater, and to complicate things, I had another 3″ of rain on August 15th.
Ric Werme says:
June 24, 2012 at 10:59 pm
======================
Thanks for the links. I checked out VT and NH totals for Aug 28 and 29, 2011. Per the records that was when rain was recorded. Most gauges were recorded in am (morning) IIRC. Looked a little more closely at Vermont as where I live the picture of a covered bridge was shown over and over and over as it washed out. Looks like central part of state (a dozen or so counties) got considerably more rain than other areas in VT. Roughly 5 – 6″ over a 24 or so hour period is a pretty good rain. Really hard to tell rate of fall with only daily readings. The way it was played up in the media I thought they were talking a foot or more. Maybe there was a little hype after the fact there also. There was certainly plenty of hype at landfall at NC and again at NY. Best policy would be to just call it like it is.
3″ in a couple of hours and 5 – 6″ over the day is not uncommon where I live. Makes for good canoeing.
A lot of hype goes into the wind component of a storm and is certainly an important factor but as a storm collapses (if that is the proper term) and dumps it’s rain then water becomes a big factor. The NHC usually does a good job in their forecasts. Remarkable actually. Something was wrong/different with Irene. Seems it hasn’t been discussed in the MSM. Hummm …
Anyway, I have a question of curiosity. How many tons or cubic miles of condensed water would a storm such as Irene or, for that matter, some other storm consist of? Has this ever been calculated at least to a WAG? A WAG with a level of accuracy equal to the projections of climate related sea level rise or temp rise would be enough for conversation. Probably better estimate because it probably could not be related to taxation. It could be guesstimated from the rain totals after landfall over a known geographic area. This would allow a guesstimate of the ‘density’ of the water in a given storm and the information could be added to our vast wealth of useless knowledge. LOL
Ric Werme says:
June 24, 2012 at 5:58 pm
I did mean to stop with Bob, as Floyd wasn’t much more than a day of rain at my daughters start-of-school camp in Massachusetts. However, it did bring some flooding to Connecticut so it just sort of stayed in the list.
Floyd drenched northern NJ pretty well. I spent 50 hours of wet-feet time in Lodi and Bound Brook with my National Guard unit when the Passaic and Raritan rivers jumped their banks.
Of course, any time someone sneezes in Bound Brook, the town floods…
Latest news from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
(Bottom line: The cyclone does not seem to be going anywhere anytime soon.)
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
DEBBY HAS A HIGHLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ALTHOUGH RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE CIRCULATION…THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY SHALLOW
CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED IR IMAGES DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED…AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
DEBBY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OF MAXIMUM OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT…BUT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS ABLE
TO REGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES…BUT A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY. DEBBY REMAINS IN
A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
ANTICYCLONES…AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LONGER-TERM…THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE…WITH SOME MODELS
TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE
LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT…THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 28.6N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 28.8N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 28.9N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 29.2N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 29.4N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 29.7N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 30.2N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
Anthony,
Why the strikeout on ‘hurricane’? ” I wonder if they learned anything from the overhype of *hurricane* tropical storm Irene last year?”
We sat Irene out on our sailboat just north of Beaufort, NC, in a tiny marina on the Intracoastal Waterway, and there was no question about its classification then. Well attested, by personal experience, as to wind speeds and 6 to 8 feet of storm surge at our location.
@Tom In Florida
> In my experience here in Florida, GFS is the only model I rely on
> and has been right on the money 99% of the time I have been
> watching it. It is the red model on Weather Underground.
Ditto on GFS reliability. Seems to be head&shoulders above the other hurricane tracking codes out there. (Based on the powerful WRF data-assimilation model)
Also, strange that WeatherUnderground has consistently picked the UKMet model as the mostly likely track out of the bunch, even though it has been 180 degrees off, predicting a Texas or Louisiana landfall!
GFS, OTOH, has predicted a Central Florida landfall from the very onset of this storm.
😐
In Pinellas county, Florida we received a lot of rain yesterday. Winds were blustery, maybe up to 50 mph at times. Rain gauge in my yard recorded about 11 inches in 24 hours. This is the second time in 10 years that we have received almost a foot of rain in a 24 hour period. We have had no flooding, no power outages, no trees down. The biggest flooding problems are in areas that regularly flood after a few inches of rain or a coastal storm surge, such as Bayshore Blvd in Tampa.
However, it looks like the fun will continue until Thursday, anyways.
Is Debby just going to just hang out there and provide a nice breeze that will cool the surface waters through evaporation and lessen the chance for the formation of another storm in the area.
Would be nice to know the water temp drop after she decides to go somewhere.
There doesn’t appear to be much cloud formation near her ‘eye’ location.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/04L_floater.html
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php
Is this named storm unusual with few clouds?
NWS rain forecast for Tampa was 3″ to 5″ over the next several days. I would be happy with a rain delivery as per the Tampa forecast in my area. We’ve had about an inch per week all spring and really kept the garden (and grass) growing .Been a week since the last 1″ rain so please deliver a couple inches, OK Debby? Send a couple inches to spare for the rivers as all that has come so far has been soaking in. Plus it makes the local weather guy happy when we get enough for runoff because it keeps the ‘average’ up while it flows down the river. They can’t seem to get the idea that 8″ of rain over time soaking in is better than 12″ with several inches runoff. But they are schooled in averages more so than I, so perhaps we’re just having a green drought. Anyway, it’s time to cut the grass again, the same 5 day schedule all spring. Too much grass or too much rain? Likely just the right amount of rain for the grass. I’m not sure the grass cares too much about averages.
The number of FL posters here is a welcome surprise. Hello from Clearwater, neighbors.
What I recall about Irene is that when I got to Annapolis a day after it passed through, hotel rooms were mighty scarce thanks to widespread power outages, and despite a lack of high winds, it and a storm from the Gulf of Mexico a week or so later demolished my vacation plans in New England by stranding me in Maine for 3 days (I was on a motorcycle), and flooding a number of roads on my original route. Waterlogged the heck out of the northeast.
I have a foot of water in my backyard in Sarasota Florida. I don’t have to leave my house yet, but I might if it gets any worse.
Its disgusting how the media took a dying tropical rainstorm(Irene) and overhyped it as a hurricane, when it actually made landfall in NC as a weakening Tropical storm. As a result of the hype, everyone expected a high wind event, leaving then all unprepared for what turned out to be a massive rain event.
not one location on the east coast recorded ground level sustained winds over 50 mph!
Here in NJ, even at 11:45 am Sunday the 28th(when the eye of Irene was passing overhead, it was breezy before,during, and after the eye. In other words it was calm before and after the eye. In fact the Proper term is storm center. IRENE HAD NO EYE! It was already extrapropical for everyone to see! Coma shaped. Zero rain west and south of center of circulation. The worst of Irene in NJ was Saturday night as she approached. Sustained winds at 25mph with gusts of 45mph got us exited about the storm, but just hours later and Sunday morning, it was just a 10 hour downpour with occasional gusts, like a summer thunderstorm. Despite the flood warnings, reporters flocked to the beaches and wooded areas to film wind driven waves and film trees blowing away(boy were they disappointed! “A reporter even said,”is that it? You mean its not getting any worse? ……because, its not that bad outside the studio”! LOL!