WUWT commenter Cal65 from Hawaii burns away all of the irrelevancy of posturing and pronouncements and gets to the core truth of what the Durban climate deal is really all about. He writes:
The UN plan will shift wealth from the first world’s poor to the third world’s rich without making any difference in climate control.
Don’t believe that? All one has to do is look at the whiny grifters known as the Maldives, who are building airports like crazy to handle the increased tourist trade…
11 new airports to be constructed in Maldives
The Government is working to construct 11 new regional airports in 11 regions and work is under way to complete them as soon as possible, said Minister of Communication and Civil Aviation Mahmoud Razi. Razi who is among the newest three cabinet ministers appointed by President Mohamed Nasheed in June said so answering questions in the People’s Majlis Razi said regional airports will be constructed in Shaviyani, Noonu, Raa, Baa, Lhaviyani, Alifu Dhaalu, Dhaalu, Gaafu Alifu, Gaafu Dhaalu and Gnaviyani atolls.
…while at the same time wailing “please save us” [from rising sea levels].
With the cry “mic check!” a large crowd of activists took over the COP17 international climate negotiations taking place in Durban, South Africa. “Listen to the people, not the polluters,” they cried, before repeating a plea from the delegation of the small island nation of the Maldives: “Please save us.” The occupiers were also addressed by Greenpeace International president Kumi Naidoo. After sitting down and refusing to move, the occupiers were escorted out by security.
…
The real issue is spelled out clearly by weak minded regurgative reporter Laura Flanders of The Nation without so much as a thought given to what is really going on.
That’s not acceptable to the people of the Maldives. And they’re not the only ones. “Climate change is a matter of justice,” Mary Robinson and Desmond Tutu of the global Council of Elders declared on the eve of the Durban meeting.
“The richest countries caused the problem, but it is the world’s poorest who are already suffering from its effects. In Durban, the international community must commit to righting that wrong.”
It’s not justice, its called a “shakedown”.
Recall that the Maldives is the same country that pulled this sort of stupid publicity stunt before Copenhagen COP15:
Let’s tally up the FAIL on these boneheads.
From TV New Zealand:
An Auckland University researcher has offered new hope to the myriad small island nations in the Pacific which have loudly complained their low-lying atolls will drown as global warming boosts sea levels.
Geographer Associate Professor Paul Kench has measured 27 islands where local sea levels have risen 120mm – an average of 2mm a year – over the past 60 years, and found that just four had diminished in size.
Working with Arthur Webb at the Fiji-based South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, Kench used historical aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images to study changes in the land area of the islands.
They found that the remaining 23 had either stayed the same or grown bigger, according to the research published in a scientific journal, Global and Planetary Change.
“It has been thought that as the sea level goes up, islands will sit there and drown,” Prof Kench told the New Scientist. “But they won’t.
“The sea level will go up and the island will start responding.
2. The Maldives can’t take a joke (Delingpole’s satire omitting Maldives from new map with higher sea levels causes the government to respond)
3. Willis explains how Floating Islands work, and he should know, he spent a lot of time working on one. He also explains why CO2 isn’t an issue. He writes:
Does increased CO2 cause increased sea level rise?
Short answer, data to date says no. There has been no acceleration the rate of sea level rise. Sea level has been rising for centuries. But the rate of the rise has not changed a whole lot. Both tidal stations and satellites show no increase in the historic rate of sea level rise, in either the short or long term. Fig. 1 shows the most recent satellite data.
Figure 1. Change of sea level over time. Radar data from the TOPEX satellite. The light blue line is sea level with monthly anomalies removed. The interval between data points is usually ten days. The gray line is the 1993-2004 linear trend projected to the end of the timeline. Gaussian average using a 71-point filter. Photo taken at Taunovo Bay Resort, Fiji.
Up until about the end of 2004, there was little change in the rate of sea level rise. Since then the rise has slowed down. The average (dark blue line) does not stray far from the trend (black line) up until 1994. Since then, it is well below the projected trend (gray line). We were supposed to be seeing some kind of big acceleration in the sea level rise caused by increased CO2. Instead, we are seeing a decrease in the rate of sea level rise. So the first claim, that increasing CO2 will cause increased rates of sea level rise, is not supported by the evidence.
Note that I am not saying anything about the future. The rate of sea level rise might go up again. What we can say, however, is that there is no hint of acceleration in the record, only deceleration. The claim of CO2 induced sea level rise is false to date.
4. The sea level is actually dropping now:
Source: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2011_rel3/sl_ns_global.png
Of course that is the highly adjusted Colorado SL data. Let’s look at others.
Here’s a composite of measures, note the Envisat in yellow, nearly flat then falling:
Source: http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_ALL_Global_IB_RWT_GIA_Adjust.png
5. Lorne Gunter: Global warming is the least of Tuvalu’s worries
Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, formerly chairman of INQUA, the International Commission on Sea Level Change, has studied real-world sea levels for nearly 40 years. Rather than relying mostly on computer models, as most climate scientists do, Dr. Morner has concentrated on using satellites, photographs and detailed measurement records to determine whether the oceans are rising, falling or remaining pretty much the same.
“The sea is not rising,” he has told anyone who will listen. ”It hasn’t risen in 50 years.” What’s more, if it rises in the 21st Century, it will be by ”not more than 10cm (four inches), with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10cm.” That’s pretty much the same prediction as that derived by the other real-world measurers, Houston and Dean.
…
Two American experts on coastal construction and sea-level — James Houston, director emeritus of engineering research and development for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Robert Dean, professor emeritus of civil and coastal engineering at the University of Florida — examined decades worth of data from all the tidal monitors around the U.S. and determined earlier this year that “worldwide-temperature increase has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years.” indeed, the rate at which oceans have been rising has “possibly decelerated for at least the last 80 years.”
6. If sea level is such a big problem, why is the Maldives government allowing new development?
“Only 6 luxurious beachfront private residences will be built at both the sunrise and sunset sides of this magical island, Soneva Fushi Resort.”
…
The Republic of Maldives in the Indian Ocean, home to some of the world’s finest white sand beaches and exceptional marine life, has to date never allowed ownership of private real estate to foreigners. Soneva Fushi by Six Senses will be among the very first to offer this privilege.
Source: http://www.ilre.com/maldives-luxury-real-estate.html
And this just isn’t an isolated event, it’s part of the official policy for tourism:
The Ministry of Tourism embarked on an ambitious expansion of the tourism industry with 37 new islands opened for bidding in the period 2004-2006. The first round of developments was announced in 2004, with 11 islands being opened for bidding.
All this while they were simultaneously squalling about “inundation” by the sea.
7. And again, if sea level rise were really a problem, why would the Maldives government allow this?
11 new airports to be constructed in Maldives
The Government is working to construct 11 new regional airports in 11 regions and work is under way to complete them as soon as possible, said Minister of Communication and Civil Aviation Mahmoud Razi. Razi who is among the newest three cabinet ministers appointed by President Mohamed Nasheed in June said so answering questions in the People’s Majlis Razi said regional airports will be constructed in Shaviyani, Noonu, Raa, Baa, Lhaviyani, Alifu Dhaalu, Dhaalu, Gaafu Alifu, Gaafu Dhaalu and Gnaviyani atolls.
Oh, wait, I know… to serve the government approved “ambitious expansion of the tourism industry” in #6
8. So why all the government sanctioned pronouncements about sea level/CO2 ??
Follow the money at the Copenhagen and Cancun climate talks
The accord promised $30bn (£19bn) in aid for the poorest nations hit by global warming they had not caused. Within two weeks of Copenhagen, the Maldives foreign minister, Ahmed Shaheed, wrote to the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, expressing eagerness to back it.
30 billion? Heck, that’s 10 times more than the gross domestic product of the whole country! They’ll say anything to get their hands on that.
| Maldives GDP (PPP) | 2010 estimate | |
| – | Total | $2.734 billion[7] |
| – | Per capita | $8,541[7] |
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maldives
==========================================
So since the Maldives is fond of making grand pronouncements about how climate change is going to hurt them/kill them make them climate refugees or other such silliness, let me make a pronouncement of my own based on the available data shown above.
Anything coming out of the mouths of Maldives officials related to climate, CO2, or sea level is pure bullshit.
The only purpose of it is to continue to paint Maldives as a victim, so they’ll get some of that climate cash promised by the fools that attend these climate conferences. Meanwhile, they continue to expand their travel industry, build new resorts, build new airports, and promote tourism while laughing all the way to the bank.
Thinking people should cross the Maldives off their vacation possibilities list. I have, I refuse to go there, even if offered a free trip, because these grifters are playing victims at the expense of taxpayers everywhere.
The Maldives shakedown is only slightly more sophisticated than a Nigerian email scam.
I hate to say this BUT the AGW crowd have been and are doing a much, much better job of selling their warming product however crazy then WE are of forcing our elected representatives to represent OUR point of view. The results more than speak for themselves. WE are losing this battle. Sure we can claim more are believe us these days but that’s an illusion. NOT a single one of our west nation representatives EVER represent OUR point of view at these climate conferences and willing to stand on OUR principles we know and understand here – NOT one of our western representatives would dare kill kill climate change. Billions of climategate emails can prove junk science but it doesn’t affect a single decision of western delegate votes. NOT ONE.
The hard, cold facts are: Without China and India standing up for the entire west – this latest global warming conference would have robbed the entire west of BILLION OF DOLLARS for generations yet to come.
We didn’t get a stalemate because of anything the entire west DID – we got this stalemate directly because INDIA AND CHINA stood up FOR us. We, the entire west, vote FOR climate reparation ever single time.
OUR, the west, only representatives in those conferences ARE China and India! How insane is that?
I enjoyed the first part of the video but they didn’t sing the part about having “diamonds on the soles of their shoes”.
“The sea level will go up and the island will start responding.”
Talk about rediscovering the wheel! Have any of these guys read Charles Darwin “The Structure and Distribution of Coral Reefs” – any of his 19th century editions?? (All vary as new data came back to the Mother Country.) Kench has simply rediscovered Darwin’s basic thesis of reef growth and atoll origins.
One item Darwin did not know about was guyots. These are the product of what you get when the sea rises too quickly and/or the reef fails to respond quickly enough.
Of course, the term “coral reef” is something of a misnomer. In many reefs corals are in the minority. Coralline Algae, encrusting foraminifera and other calcaerous-secreting organisms are major contributors to the mass and, like the corals themselves, grow upward to the surface and the sun.
Funny how CO2 is evil, except when it comes out of aircraft carrying tourists to the poor sinking Maldives.
Sinking under the weight of their own hypocrisy…
@Albertalad
It doesn’t matter what these representatives vote for if they have no legal authority. The US congress will never ratify any of this idiocy (no idea about Canada).
This human tragicomedy gets more depressing with every turn,
The whole conference is a publicity stunt to shakedown the West.
What a mess. It’s time the West walked away from this.
It was fairly clear that the Durban talks would produce something that they could call a success. After all, the UN bureaucrats running the show are no different to their counterparts at the EU. Their sole raison d’etre is to produce new laws, whether we need new laws, whether we want new laws, or whether we can afford new laws, they’ll carry on churning them out. It’s a Darwinian urge to promote the species. If they ever stopped, the rest of the population might realise how much better off we had become without them and the bureaucrats would be heading for extinction.
TheGoodLocust says:
December 11, 2011 at 10:30 am
It doesn’t matter what these representatives vote for if they have no legal authority. The US congress will never ratify any of this idiocy (no idea about Canada).
——————
Well, somebody gave your US delegate to VOTE on behalf of the United States. Thereby allowing a climate deal to pass in Durban – whether or not it passes in the US is another matter. The fact is – the US vote allowed Durban to pass. The exact same for Canada occurred.
Our guy, Peter Kent, was all mouth about how Canada was going to drop OUT of Kyoto – and he voted to pass Durban same as the US. At least your guys weren’t all mouth BEFORE getting to Durban – ours was. He was a big shot until the EU, the Brits, and the third world stated kicking his butt around like a little girl and he folded like a drunk on the sidewalk. I’m flat out disgusted and furious – now this charade goes on and on and on for the foreseeable future. WE lacked the courage to kill this insanity when we had China and India backing us up and covering for us IF we had chosen to stand up and take it like a man.
http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/durban_nov_2011/decisions/application/pdf/cop17_gcf.pdf
Green Climate Fund report of the Transitional Committee
Draft decision -/CP.17
2. Selection of Board members
11. The members of the Board and their alternates will be selected by their respective constituency or regional group within a constituency. Members of the Board will have the necessary experience and skills, notably in the areas of climate change and development finance, with due consideration given to gender balance.
Why not give due condsideration to ethnicity and religious balance? It would from the Durban conference that the UN rates gender more important than race or religion. This would would appear to fit the definition of a sexists. Are we to understand that the UN supports sexism?
Bloke down the pub says:
December 11, 2011 at 10:41 am
“Their sole raison d’etre is to produce new laws, whether we need new laws, whether we want new laws, or whether we can afford new laws, they’ll carry on churning them out. It’s a Darwinian urge to promote the species. If they ever stopped, the rest of the population might realise how much better off we had become without them and the bureaucrats would be heading for extinction.”
Half of the Germans now want out of the EU, I read today in a poll. Tipping point! While our media vilifies Cameron for saying njet to the latest fiscal union concepts, our population seems to envy the Brits. So, the Eurocrats might become a threatened species faster than they can say “Kyoto protocol”.
albertalad says:
December 11, 2011 at 10:02 am
“NOT a single one of our west nation representatives EVER represent OUR point of view at these climate conferences and willing to stand on OUR principles we know and understand here – NOT one….”
So we all have to ask ourselves “what’s in it for them? Sure I realize that a few “Goreacles” would stand to make a mint, a few others would also line the green nest from producing and supplying so called sustainable products, but even they must realize that sooner or later a seriously pissed off western populace is going wonder why a bunch of them are standing in food queues, while their previously “poor brothers” are whooping it up with all the green (tax) money. I find it difficult to believe that the people steering this are that stupid. If the real intention is to devolve power to the UN, to limit sovereignty, again what’s in it for the present players? I find myself somewhat stumped, and to extend this line of thinking, one almost always strays into the ridiculed and “out of bounds” territory of conspiracy.
Unlike most posters here, I have personally visited many of the low-lying Micronesian Outer Islands (formerly called the Caroline Islands) that extend along the 800-nautical mile open ocean arc from Yap to Chuuk, These islands are made entirely of sand derived from the surrounding coral reefs, and they typically have a maximum elevation of 2-3 meters.
Yes, the Outer Islanders observe that sea-levels are rising, and yes the islands are markedly eroding in consequence. No, there is no question of any financial scam … there is in fact zero tourism of any kind in the Outer Islands … the Outer Island economies are not even based on money, but rather upon a more nuanced system of social obligations.
The surrounding coral reefs are alive-and-growing, and eroding to make new sand, and so the crux question is: Can the world’s atoll reefs grow as fast as the sea level rises?
This is where key biological issues like the effect of ocean acidification of coral growth intersect with key climatological issues like the thermal expansion of the oceans (in the near term) the stability of the Greenland ice sheet (in the intermediate term) and Antarctic ice sheets (in the long term).
It is not clear (to me) that the present skeptical culture of WUWT is capable of analyzing these issues in any serious sense — but I would be very happy to be proven wrong!
Given that climate is the continuation of the oceans with other means, and the fact that Jason2 shows the same drop that Envisat shows (this was new to me), I think it’s fair to say that the oceans are telling us something now, and it’s not “we’re still warming”…
As you should know the Maldives is really 1100 islands, 200 hundred of which are inhabited. I think their plan is to raise money from tourism which they can use to purchase land elsewhere, a necessity since their long term prospects are not too good. The average height above sea level is only slightly more than a meter, and the projected sea level rise is 60 cm. This is not a comfortable prospect and prudent planning supports all efforts to control this rise, and as a Plan B, find other land on higher ground to move to.
I think your correspondent errs by failing to take a long term view of the situation in the Maldives. Small yearly increases can be catastrophic over the long term.
Three years to prove the AGW theory is a fallacy, yes it can be done!
DirkH, you want to know the irony? Cameron didn’t veto a damn thing. There was never a treaty under discussion, the “summit” (in reality a European Council meeting) was purely to decide what temporary measures would be taken and when an IGC would be set to begin negotiations for a new treaty. Cameron’s claim to have used a veto is bunk: they’re going ahead with their plans, all he’s doing is posing.
Cameron is Macbeth’s poor player in the flesh. All sound and fury, his veto is but a tale… and if you know the passage I’m alluding to you probably know what I think of the man by now.
@albertalad says:
December 11, 2011 at 10:45 am
“Well, somebody gave your US delegate to VOTE on behalf of the United States. Thereby allowing a climate deal to pass in Durban – whether or not it passes in the US is another matter. The fact is – the US vote allowed Durban to pass. The exact same for Canada occurred. ”
And again, why do I care if such an agreement has no legal authority in the US? Their vote is as meaningful as those taken at the Model UN of your local high school.
Whilst puffing up this scam balloon, they are also sowing the seeds of the next terrorist movement, with their unrelenting talk of the West’s “Climate Debt.”
When the “debt” isn’t repaid (or much more likely disappears into various tinpot dictators’ Swiss bank accounts) and the life of the third world poor continues to be without hope (not to mention without jobs, education, health provision, clean water or affordable energy), the next bunch of young men thirsting for a climate debt martyrdom operation will spring up.
Hugh Pepper:
If the islands were rock – perhaps. As they are effectively alive, it depends on the rate of growth of the island vs the rate of sea level rise. Seems to me they are safe enough, going by the present data.
albertalad says:
December 11, 2011 at 10:02 am
The blame for the idiocy you describe rests squarely on the shoulders of President Obama. For those of us who can vote in the US, that is a powerful reason to vote against Obama. Without a cheerleader for CAGW as president, the popularity of CAGW in the US would track the numbers of people who listen to NPR daily.
A physicist says:
December 11, 2011 at 11:19 am
It is not clear (to me) that the present skeptical culture of WUWT is capable of analyzing these issues in any serious sense — but I would be very happy to be proven wrong!
The answer to your question was given 10-20 thousand years ago, when we entered the current interglcial and sea levels rose 300 feet at a rate significantly faster than at present.
Science has a long history of sceptics uncovering the facts, when the status quo sought to suppress the truth. The one great truth in science is that in an infinite universe there are an infinite number of discoveries still waiting to be made.
The envisat etc link seems not to work: http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_ALL_Global_IB_RWT_GIA_Adjust.png
A physicist says:
December 11, 2011 at 11:19 am
You should read the essay that begins this post. There has been no sea level rise that can be attributed to human activity. The Maldives might sink but if God does it that is His business.
Since you are a regular visitor to the Maldives, what have you done to persuade them to stop investing in the islands and to move elsewhere? Given your beliefs, that would be the morally right thing to do.
I see a bubble in the Maldives future…
Hugh Pepper says:
December 11, 2011 at 11:24 am
So, this information is contained in their sales pitch, right? Buy a vacation home here so that we can use the income to move away pronto?
And the eleven new airports are temporary? What does a temporary airport look like? Are the air controllers sitting in a tree?
Hugh, if you would be so kind as to explain the rapid contruction plans for ELEVEN Maldivean airports in the context of this crisis, both in terms of Maldives’ imminent inundation as well as lowering humankind’s carbon footprint.
“A physicist says:
December 11, 2011 at 11:19 am
These islands are made entirely of sand derived from the surrounding coral reefs, and they typically have a maximum elevation of 2-3 meters.”
Then you should apply the precautionary principle and evacuate them all. Any decent tsunami will obliterate them and all human life on them. Now how does slow sea level rise stack up against that risk?
I really despise the way the sat data is conflated. This isn’t proper. It shouldn’t be done. The measurements aren’t the same. Pretending that the satellites show continuity is just plain wrong.
http://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/12/05/alarmist-owes-me-a-keyboard/
Different recording devices, recording different measurements, all lined up as if it is some version of reality. The all show different rates of rise and different rates of lowering in the last 3-7 years. http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/image19.png
Philip Stott: The Basic Truth About Durban
http://www.thegwpf.org/opinion-pros-a-cons/4532-philip-stott-the-basic-truth-about-durban.html
Considering the government, or would that be the religion, as they are interchangeable, of the Maldives, I can only hope that sea levels will continue to rise. Perhaps accelerate in their rise.
As I know that is not happening, more’s the pity.
But that’s just me…
@KPO
“If the real intention is to devolve power to the UN, to limit sovereignty, again what’s in it for the present players? I find myself somewhat stumped, and to extend this line of thinking, one almost always strays into the ridiculed and “out of bounds” territory of conspiracy.”
You are thinking along the same lines as me. I have been trying for ages to work out what motivates so many of the players in this insanity.
The WWF/Greenpeace motives are fairly clear. The politicians, the “scientists” likewise. The NGO gravy train is pretty obvious. There is a whole raft of companies taking advantage of the green scam (its just a marketing message, after all). The poor downtrodden climate victims, who will benefit from the reparations being extorted from the rest of us.
But anyone with any understanding of science, or history, outside of this bunch, must be able to see that it is just a gigantic bubble, continually pumped up, which will finally burst, having taken 100’s of billions out of genuine added value activities, to support the scam.
How much longer is it going to take before the rest of the world wakes up? When will we have some viable political party to vote for, to take action to end this insanity? The longer it goes on for, the bigger the backlash when the bubble is seen for what it really is. If bankers are vilified now, it will be nothing compared with the hatred which will be directed towards the worst perpetrators, of this, the biggest fraud imaginable.
It is worse than a conspiracy, more pervasive than a religion. It is mass hysteria on an unbelievable scale. A hundred years from now this episode will be viewed with incredulity by our successors, in just the same way that people cannot now believe how the population of Europe tolerated 60,000 deaths in a SINGLE day of fighting in the Somme. The ruling classes needed to be swept away then, just as they do now.
“The UN plan will shift wealth from the first world’s poor to the third world’s rich without making any difference in climate control.”
But it will greatly benefit the world’s poor through the “trickle down mechanism.” Rich people in the third world have a long history of trickling down upon their poor.
/s
“…the Outer Island economies are not even based on money, but rather upon a more nuanced system of social obligations.”
aah, don’t you just love them noble savages.
It is about the facilitation of the smaller countries charging the larger countries rent for the atmosphere.
ALL economics is “trickle down”. Whenever I have money and I use it for something, some of my wealth “trickles” to someone else. If I become profitable and open a plant and hire people, that profit has now “trickled” into that town.
Money “trickles” and whoever does not believe that has no understanding of economics. What these people are doing is “directing” that trickle. Some of it going into their own pockets, and some if it going to realize their global socialist dream of everyone being equal in poverty.
This issue is as big as it is due to one single person: David Fenton. David Fenton and George Soros (Fenton’s money man) should be brought up on charges of crimes against humanity. Fenton is the PR and marketing of the scare, Soros (and other guilty rich socialists like Theresa Heinz) are the money behind it. They need to be jailed and THEIR wealth taken and redistributed but instead they profit from all of this through their “green” investments created by this very hysteria they have helped create.
But Fenton is the man who needs to go to prison.
jorgekafkazar says:
December 11, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Right. Rich men can afford additional wives.
WAKE UP says:
December 11, 2011 at 1:04 pm
“…the Outer Island economies are not even based on money, but rather upon a more nuanced system of social obligations.”
aah, don’t you just love them noble savages.”
————–
This is actually great because “nuanced… social obligations” is all they will (hopefully) get.
They should be thrilled with this outcome at Durban.
They can carry on living in perfect harmony with nature, like they are now. Yes, so noble.
I wonder if the Climastrologists will be crying into their beer tonight now that their sterling efforts to save us all from the physics defying effects their voodoo “science” ascribes to CO2 have been delayed yet again?
This time it was Brazil, South Africa, India and China sailing to the rescue in Durban, though there seems no reason to suspect that this was anything other than self interest on their part, rather than recognition that the settled consensus “science” of CAGW and “robust” climate models built upon it smell so strongly of bullshit for very good reasons.
They know full well that if binding targets had been passed, whilst they might get a free ride at first, once the “developed” countries had been Carbon taxed to oblivion, they the “developing” countries would inevitably be next in line on the sacrificial altar.
By 2015 or 2020 hopefully the world of Science will have woken up to the damage being inflicted by the voodoo outpourings of Climastrologists in league with the emotive siren songs of the Ecovangelists.
So there may be good reason to raise a glass to Brazil, South Africa, India and China to thank them, even if they did it for the wrong reasons. Cheers!
Warmistas on the move;
http://www.michaelmusgrove.com/tech/why-arent-you-better/attachment/lemmings/
@A physicist says:
December 11, 2011 at 11:19 am
and
@Hugh Pepper says:
December 11, 2011 at 11:24 am
I’m pretty sure Willis Eschenbach wrote a very interesting article here concerning the health of reefs such as those in the areas you are concerned with. He pointed out how certain human actions in fact are very detrimental to the health and continued growth of the reefs and the generation of the coral sand that keeps them above sea level. Perhaps these nuanced social networkers should read this and get real busy studying what maintains their little bits of paradise and making sure that their destructive actions are minimized or terminated.
However, if the underlying edifice (typically a volcanic mount) is no longer being heated, once it begins to cool, it will simply sink back into the mantle as the mound becomes more dense. The corals are then in a race for life. Many geologic sections suggest they actually can stay up with this natural subsidence for great lengths of time. That’s where human intervention becomes important. If we do things right, the reef will support them. If not, man the life boats. It’s their island; learn how to keep it alive rather than hooking for repatriated money that isn’t going to materialize.
Hugh Pepper says:
December 11, 2011 at 11:24 am
As you should know the Maldives is really 1100 islands.
I bet you didn’t know that until you conjured up your condescending parroting of the meme. Of course, this includes the crystal-ball quotes of the Druids who know the future despite the obvious fact that NOBODY has been able to predict it with any accuracy. So, once again, we are happy to be informed by you. Like the original quote, the west’s poor will pay the third world’s corrupt rich power brokers. And your blessed statistics will continue to happen, like it or not. My question is, what are YOU doing to save the world?
This is the funniest thing that I’ve read for ages. Developing all these “waterfront” projects whilst at the same time screaming for funds to save themselves from future “drowning”.
Gold. Pure unadulterated gold.
The Maldives don’t have to worry about sinking – not when they’re busy building up Thilafushi. Any climate refugees can just move to this island Paradise.
Well, they WERE building up Thilafushi until a few days ago:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16072020
re posts by: Tony B (another one) says: December 11, 2011 at 12:30 pm
I should also have said: Awesome quote by Cal65, and thanks Anthony for bring it to our attention!
@A physicist and @Hugh Pepper
Ancedotal islander memories, while not to be ignored, carry little weight – anecdotal data of this nature have been proven time and again to far too often be flawed. This is why science, when the scientific method is properly applied and actual measurements are taken is so incredibly useful and why we’ve had such incredible advancements over the past one or two hundred years.
I seem to recall that there have been one or more studies which actually measured island land area changes over time, where the actual measurements were available online. If so, good chance that this data for the outer islands could be found rather than basing your comments on anecdotes and such.
I also have to suspect that just as they do along continental seacoasts, natural forces must also influence the amount of sand deposited or removed along those outer islands. Many locations with awesome sand beaches long ago discovered that what the sea deposits, the sea can just as easily remove. Man’s attempts to stop beach erosion in order to protect _____ (fill in the blank with one of the options: financial investments in the area, natural beauty, tourist hotspot…. etc.) with the best engineering plans of the day were found to often have the opposite effect, much to the chagrin of those involved and at the cost of huge sums of money. Currents shift, seafloor and/or land areas subside or uplift, plant or animal activities or populations change with a very complex interaction resulting, major storms occur – all sorts of things go into the equation that are far beyond just sea level changes.
son of mulder says:
December 11, 2011 at 11:51 am
Then you should apply the precautionary principle and evacuate them all. Any decent tsunami will obliterate them and all human life on them.
And yet the 2004 tsunami didn’t.
The Maldives is building all those airports so the Chinese can go on holiday
“Beale says:
December 11, 2011 at 8:57 pm
And yet the 2004 tsunami didn’t.”
So you feel lucky?
If the West has to pay all this money and reduce energy consumption the Maldives will get no tourists from the first world. developing world will not be able to go either because the monies paid to their governments will end up in the accounts of the corrupt politicians. Their poor will remain poor.
“The UN plan will shift wealth from the first world’s poor to the third world’s rich without making any difference in climate control”
A deserving quote. What I find somewhat stunning is how the statist method of creating a “we are owed” mentality in certain segments of a population (often called community organization) is now being used by those of the same totalitarian elitist mindset to create divisivness between nations.
engendering the mindset of whatever natural and normal weather event causes any damage being ALL the fault of the nasty 1st worlders and carbon…is sure going to backfire when the financials go crash bigtime and no ones going to fork over the funds they dont have anyway.
how many enraged poor who fell for the lies, and accept it with no means or desire to know if? its true or not, dont get any better life or money.
a huge huge mountain of resentment indeed.
maybe Al and james would go have a “oops we screwed up” apologia session?
hung drawn and quartered I suspect
@A physicist
Looking at the reports on the erosion of the outer islands, there is no doubt that this is anthropogenic. However it is far more the result the geomorphological impact of poor siting and design of coastal structures and land use changes than changes in sea level.
Eric, I don’t think you grasp that an outer island can be as small as a nine-hole golf course, and that every tree on that island is owned by a specific individual, with each tree valued according to its production of food, clothing, and materials for shelters and canoes. The islands have no “designed coastal structures” in the sense that your post postulates. Neither is moving to high ground an option; there is no high ground.
It seems to me that Father Hezel’s analysis of the situation (Father Hezel is a distinguished anthropologist and Jesuit priest) is far more solidly grounded in science, economics, sociology, and morality than Mr. Watts’ understanding.
Anthony has it exactly right, this is an extortion racket. As such, it should be settled as all criminal RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act) violations are, with SWAT teams busting down the doors at the UN, flash bang grenades and body bags. But that would take cojones and everyone knows that the progressive liberal socialists in the White House and other positions of power along with their voters, are neutered metrosexual girly men.
But that is to be expected from modern castrated politicos. There is also a level of treason, because at the root of these schemes from the International order of Robin Hood (steal from the rich, give to the poor) lies treacherous westerners that thus far have been able to operate in the shadows with little fear of repercussions. These cheerleaders working behind the scenes, whispering in the ear of these crooks for action against their native countries will have to be dealt with when the time is right. They are no better than Benedict Arnold, Klaus Fuchs or the Rosenbergs.
The infection of political correctness has paved the way for such utter nonsense, it has hammered the immune system of the body politic. The big boys on planet Earth have been busy self-flagellating thanks to the suicidal tendency to entertain the mindless meanderings of their environmental patients, rather than treating them like the insane babbling idiots they are. What is needed is to tell them (Maldives and all other rent seekers) to go stuff yourself.
Look for the UN and their tentacle organizations to expand this to using American Indians and Eskimos and Australian Aborigines and anyone else they can find to eat away at the modern West. And why not? No-one has really smacked them in the mouth like they should have. This is what happens when you don’t discipline the unruly. US out of the UN, UN out of the US. In a perfect world the building would be razed and the ground salted. But being NYC we should just hand out cans of spray paint and let the kids use it to demonstrate their artistic skillz. We can call it American Graffiti.
Note to presidential candidates, if you really want to make a splash and turn President Dumbo out in a landslide, promise to shut down that UN cesspool, sterilize the buildings, and turn it into a low income housing project. Promise to terminate all involvement with their treaties and send them a bill for past rent. Finally, promise to add the Maldives and all other rent-seeker to a banned list of travel destinations. They should be treated no better than anyone involved with piracy on the high seas.
Anthony has it exactly right, this is an extortion racket. As such, it should be settled as all criminal RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act) violations are, with SWAT teams busting down the doors at the UN, flash bang grenades and body bags. But that would take cojones and everyone knows that the progressive liberal socialists in the White House and other positions of power along with their voters, are neutered metrosexual girly men.
But that is to be expected from modern castrated politicos. There is also a level of treason, because at the root of these schemes from the International order of Robin Hood (steal from the rich, give to the poor) lies treacherous westerners that thus far have been able to operate in the shadows with little fear of repercussions. These cheerleaders working behind the scenes, whispering in the ear of these crooks for action against their native countries will have to be dealt with when the time is right. They are no better than Benedict Arnold, Klaus Fuchs or the Rosenbergs.
The infection of political correctness has paved the way for such utter nonsense, it has hammered the immune system of the body politic. The big boys on planet Earth have been busy self-flagellating thanks to the suicidal tendency to entertain the mindless meanderings of their environmental patients, rather than treating them like the insane babbling idiots they are. What is needed is to tell them (Maldives and all other rent seekers) to go stuff yourself.
Look for the UN and their tentacle organizations to expand this to using American Indians and Eskimos and Australian Aborigines and anyone else they can find to eat away at the modern West. And why not? No-one has really smacked them in the mouth like they should have. This is what happens when you don’t discipline the unruly. US out of the UN, UN out of the US. In a perfect world the building would be razed and the ground salted. But being NYC we should just hand out cans of spray paint and let the kids use it to demonstrate their artistic skillz. We can call it American Graffiti.
Note to presidential candidates, if you really want to make a splash and turn President Dumbo out in a landslide, promise to shut down that UN cesspool, sterilize the buildings, and turn it into a low income housing project. Promise to terminate all involvement with their treaties and send them a bill for past rent. Finally, promise to add the Maldives and all other rent-seeker to a banned list of travel destinations. They should be treated no better than anyone involved with piracy on the high seas.
The long view? Okay, from Wickipedia …
The Maldives are riding a slow but unstoppable freight train straight into the fires of hell underneath Asia where they will be summarily recycled as liquid hot magma and ejected at the nearest convenient volcano, their ashes scattered into the stratosphere. If they look real hard they might notice that the north ends of their islands are sinking just a tad faster then the south. They are gonna have to sue Alfred Wegener. I just wish they would sink faster. Buh Bye.
Wonderful phrase! I’ll be using that.
a physicist says:
“It is not clear (to me) that the present skeptical culture of WUWT is capable of analyzing these issues in any serious sense — but I would be very happy to be proven wrong!”
Then today is your lucky day. You’re wrong. You say:
“It seems to me that Father Hezel’s analysis of the situation (Father Hezel is a distinguished anthropologist and Jesuit priest) is far more solidly grounded in science, economics, sociology, and morality than Mr. Watts’ understanding.”
That is a textbook example of a strawman argument. You set that strawman up and knocked it right down, what a guy. However, Anthony was specifically referring to what the Maldives officials were saying. Try to respond on topic. Defend the officials’ statements, if you can.
And since you apparently believe that sea level rise is accelerating, let’s see some empirical evidence backing your belief system.
Smokey, I commend to you Father Hezel’s writings, and I think you and other WUWT regulars can learn much from them.
Regrettably, Anthony saw fit to delete an analysis of (e.g.) the economic rationality of 20-year Maldive runway construction bonds. But I think you can work these numbers for yourself.
A physicist says:
December 12, 2011 at 7:45 am
It seems to me that Father Hezel’s analysis of the situation (Father Hezel is a distinguished anthropologist and Jesuit priest) is far more solidly grounded in science, economics, sociology, and morality than Mr. Watts’ understanding.
I haven’t seen “Father Hezel’s anylysis” (whoever the heck Hezel is), but it is a sure bet the only thing he’s firmly grounded in is the basic tenets of the CAGW quasi-cult/religion, and whatever “morality” he has or professes to have goes entirely out the window by his pushing of what is fundamentally a lie, which he then compounds by attempting to punish those who refuse to go along with that lie.
Bruce, I am happy to point to resources that will help improve your faulty understanding of Father Hezel life, work, and thought.
It would be no form of rational skepticism, and moreover a very substantial injustice to the good Father, if the assertions in your post were left uncorrected.
OK, physicist, I read some of that complete nonsense. Namakin writes for Herzel stuff like: “…in the South Pacific, the Carteret Islands of Papua New Guinea are fighting a losing battle against the ocean. It’s estimated the six islands will disappear into the water by 2015.” Three years to go and the Carteret islands will be submerged?? As if. That would make the islands currently only a few millimeters high at their highest point.
He blames all “climate change” on GHG’s. Naturally a religious mystic who believes mankind is evil would blame evil humans for everything he considers to be bad. We must atone for our carbon sins!
What’s next, tarot cards to predict runaway global warming?
Smokey, I am sure that both you and Father Hazel sincerely pray for enlightenment … as for whose prayers are the more efficacious, time will tell! 🙂
physicist,
I’m already enlightened; I don’t need that kind of pseudo-scientific mysticism.
BTW, I read a few more columns of Fr Hezel’s wacked out craziness. It was very amusing. I think the equatorial sun must addle the brains of folks who live there [think what a super genius Willis would be if he had avoided that area]. I especially liked the essay on marijuana. After admitting that there were no laws against drug use, the writer wonders why there aren’t lots of ‘criminal’ marijuana convictions on record.
Hezel says:
“We simply don’t have the luxury of waiting until we have settled the global warming question to address this issue. It is affecting us now.”
So “physicist”, the extent of his “expertise” on climate is that old Warmist standby, the Precautionary Principle? It appears my assumptions were indeed incorrect; I greatly underestimated the lameness of his grasp of not only climate, but of the principles of both science and logic.
Bruce, as Father Hezel describes in-detail, the Pacific outer islands are plainly seeing the effects of rising sea-level already. Thus, skeptical references to “the Precautionary Principle” carry no logical sense. Please try again.
@ Smokey
There is a phenomena that I have observed known as “beach stupid”. This occurs in many people that move from more temperate climes to the tropical beaches. As the Maldives are, in fact, mostly beach, perhaps the good friar is similarly affected? 😉
Nick, your theory of “tropical stupid” explains Anthony Watts’ “whiny grifters” of the Maldives … and Smokey’s “wacked out” priests of Micronesia … and maybe even “strangely strong” videos by Texas governors (is it those scorching West Texas summers?).
But obviously, such arguments are no form of rational skepticism, eh?
Nick,
If Fr Hezel really believes what he writes, that might be an explanation. But it would be really scary if would be if a physicist believed that nonsense!
Despite the blind faith, the sea level around Tuvalu in Kiribati [pronounced “Kiribas”] isn’t rising. In fact, the global mean sea level is naturally rising very slowly from its LIA lows. And recently, the sea level rise began to decelerate. Here’s a Bill Illis chart.
The credulous mouth breathers who sat through Algore’s movie, which showed 20 meter sea level rises, can’t believe that the actual rise has really only been a few inches per century – and now the rise is slowing. But so much of their egos are invested in the narrative that even when they are proved unequivocally wrong, they still won’t admit it.
physicist, don’t you get tired of posting strawman comments? This has nothing to do with Rick Perry, Republican politics – or any politics for that matter. [BTW, IANAR]
But I guess it’s no crazier than announcing that the Carteret Islands will be sinking beneath the waves in the next 3 years.
Smokey, skepticism that expresses itself in phrases like “tropical stupid” [Nick], “whiny grifters” [Anthony], and “wacked out” [Smokey] obviously has zero logical force.
Of course, neither does cherry-picking … and so may I suggest instead that you consult comprehensive surveys like “Sea level extremes in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands” (2010) …
… which arrives at pretty much the same conclusions as the wise Father Hezel.
That’s mighty good to know, eh? That the climate change science agrees so well with the common sense, personal observations, and decades of experience of a sandals-on-the-ground priest?
A physicist says:
December 12, 2011 at 11:12 am
Hezel says: “We simply don’t have the luxury of waiting until we have settled the global warming question to address this issue. It is affecting us now.”
Bruce Cobb says: So “physicist”, the extent of his “expertise” on climate is that old Warmist standby, the Precautionary Principle?
Bruce, as Father Hezel describes in-detail, the Pacific outer islands are plainly seeing the effects of rising sea-level already. Thus, skeptical references to “the Precautionary Principle” carry no logical sense. Please try again.
Apparently, you are the one who is logic-challenged, making the idea that you could be a physicist somewhat laughable. You see, the idea is that, according to Hezel, the “global warming question” isn’t settled, which is true. The global warming question has to do not whether or not some warming has taken place, which is a favorite strawman of you people. No, the question has to do with whether or not man is affecting climate in any significant way. Therefore, what Hezel has put forward is indeed the Precautionary Principle. His argument is that we should act now, regardless how little the evidence is, and to what extent that man is responsible.
der physicist is all over the map. The link he posted has nothing to do with Hezel’s false claim that sea level “is affecting us now” [at least, any more than it ever has]. The natural sea level rise [≤≈3mm/yr] isn’t affecting Micronesia or the rest of the globe any more than it did prior to the industrial revolution, so this is just another false alarm.
Sea level extremes refer to anomalies, not to the trend, which is almost flat. From the link:
Understand? The average trend hasn’t changed much – except that now it’s declining below trend.
Priests operate based on faith, so we can give the good Father a pass. He apparently believes that islands will sink beneath the ocean waves within three years. But a physicist should know better. Would said physicist wish to make a wager that six Carteret islands will sink beneath the ocean surface within the next, say, four years from today? Say, a kilobuck to the charity of the winner’s choice, paid by the loser? My charity would be Dr Tim Ball. The gauntlet is down. What does a physicist say?☺
As a Catholic, I actually take exception to the credence given to Fr. Hezel as being “wise”. Unfortunately many Jesuits have fallen into the trap of being “trendy” and modernist. That fact that the man is a priest does not make him a credible source of information.
If Fr. Hezel was to be credible, then he would need to have the appropriate degrees in things like geology and oceanography etc. etc. The mere fact of being a priest is not sufficient credential to be considered any kind of authority.
Priests can be in error when it comes to things outside of their areas of expertise. I have known some that tend to believe the fairy stories about globull warming being man made…and a whole lot of other things that are not in fact correct.
How’s this for a simple solution:
Have the UN Declare the Maldives a Climate Heritage Site. BUY it for a couple of $Billion and “relocate to save” the population to, oh, Islamabad…. Then issue free “Global Warming Study Groups” tickets to “Climate Change Deniers” requiring that they spend 2 weeks, all expenses paid, at the “reeducation resorts” with mandatory daily exposure to the ocean each day so they can learn to observe sea level rise first hand… This is to be repeated each year until they admit the sea is rising…
It would likely cost less, and I’d sign up for the camps. It would likely take me a long time to change my mind about sea level rise though…
The rate of sea level rise has reduced since late 2005. There is no acceleration of sea level rise.
This stems from:
1. Greenhouse gas emissions will heat the planet (according to models, no observation of that).
2. Heating the planet will melt Greenland (no observations of that either. Some variation but no trend)
3. Melting Greenland will raise the sea levels. (yes it would but is all based on #1 which is speculation).
So one must first buy into the speculation in #1 above to even be worried about CO2 emissions.
I was going to say how much does anyone want to bet they will now find a new way to “adjust” sea level measurements but they already did that a few weeks ago. But they are going to have to come up with a new, new way once the trend starts downward. They can absolutely not afford to see a downward trend in global sea level.
Crosspatch, NASA satellite data confirm your claim [;… with a caveat:
It seems to me that rational skeptics needs a “Plan B”, just in case the NASA satellites, Father Hezel, and the climate change science community, all turn out to be right.
Crosspatch, what might be your personal “Plan B”, if it turns out the NASA science is right?
If the
sciencespeculation is right, Plan B is this: Relax, take a chill pill, and don’t worry. The long term trend is only ≈3 mm in nine years, per the linked NASA chart. That’s a couple inches a century. Nothing to worry about, we can easily handle it, no problem.And note that the short term trend is still down, not up, no matter how they try to spin it. The sea level rise scare is just another failed CAGW prediction within a universe of failed CAGW predictions. So far, the ‘climate change science community’ [whatever that means] has been 100% wrong. Even a broken clock beats their record.
Hmmm … so its kinda like the Pre-war Planning for Post-war Iraq, eh?
Yah know, Smokey, rational skepticism has got to do better than that.
ap,
Iraq = sea level rise?? That’s not even comparing apples and oranges, that’s apples and artichokes.
Lie down on the nice doctor’s couch, and come up with some more free asscociations. Maybe take a Rorschach test. Then the nice doctor will prescribe some thorazine and you can dream about Fr Hezel, the faith-based climatologist.☺
@ A physicist
The size of the islands is not in dispute, nor are the dire impacts of coastal erosion, but these facts do not alter the reality that the direct human impact on geomorphic processes, even on tiny islands, outweighs the potential impact of your imagined anthropogenic sea level rise.
Eric, the people who live on these islands are technologically and scientifically sophisticated — rather more so than the general American public in my experience — and their personal knowledge of natural history is unsurpassed. This is because every island has inhabitants who have traveled in the outer world, and several of the larger islands have a satellite-dish internet connection (even though these same islands lack physicians, police, banks, or stores), and yet at the same time every individual breadfruit tree and coconut tree has a history, known to all, that extends back fifty years and more — including the distance of that individual tree from the shoreline.
I encountered no climate-change skeptics in any of the men’s huts on any island, where in long conversations these matters are discussed every evening. What these islanders see around them matches perfectly with what the climate-change science tells them; in comparison, the American public is deeply and often willfully ignorant of both natural history and basic science, and in consequence of this ignorance, is too-easily misled.
Roy, P. and J. Connell. 1990. “Extracts from “Greenhouse”! the impact of sea level rise on low coral islands in the South Pacific”.
Did Canada leave the Kyoto Protocol yesterday?
If so, why did their representative vote with the warmistas?
I am no supporter of leftie David Cameron but his use of the UK veto re the EU’s EMU fiasco was the correct thing to do. France & Germany are hell bent on destroying the financial centre of London and repatriating all of that business to Paris & Frankfurt.
The EU’s proposed financial transactions tax would have (deliberately) hit London hardest, because of the size of the City’s market, and would have raised 35%+ of the entire EU fund that will be set up. The effect would have been to cripple London’s financial competitiveness.
That’s only the start: today the French have been threatening the UK that they’ll find a way to cripple the City anyway – and take the business for themselves.
The EU is a Franco-Germanic entity designed solely to line their pockets at everyone else’s expense. In addition, there is the burning desire to create The United States of Europe of which the euro was a part in that plan; unfortunately, it was doomed from the start as I & many like me said at the time.
There is only one place for the UK to be – outside the EU but in a similar EU trading arrangement to Norway & Switzerland (though without the annual fee!).
Apologies for derail.
if the maldives are so marginal and the livable land is so little and cramped, then where did they get the asphalt/concrete/hard stuff they needed to make the runway itself???
or are they going to blow the money from the construction bonds and disappear into the dark?
Eric Huxter,
You are right. The islands are subject to tectonic subsidence and have been affected by past clear cutting of trees that kept erosion at bay. Mangroves are now being planted to try and halt the erosion, which has nothing to do with human CO2 emissions. The islands are only 1 – 1.5 metres above sea level. But with sea levels naturally rising only a couple of inches per century, the inhabitants don’t have much to worry about. They are just pawns in the alarmists’ false propaganda efforts.
“a physicist” posts a citation stating that the six Carteret islands would be submerged “by 2015”. I challenged a physicist to put his money where his mouth is. I even gave him an extra year. But as we see he is tap dancing fast, trying to change the subject.
a physicist can either admit that he doesn’t have any confidence in the prediction he posted, or he can put up a kilobuck for my designated charity. That’s all the wiggle-room he has, because he overstepped badly in posting the religious prediction that the six Carteret islands will be submerged “by 2015” – only three years from now.