Climategate 2.0 emails – They're real and they're spectacular!

A link to where to download the new FOIA2011.zip file is posted below the fold – This will be a top post for a few days -NEW STORIES APPEAR BELOW THIS ONE -I’ve also reversed the order of the updates to be newest at top for better visibility – Anthony

UPDATE50: 1:15 PM PST 11/30 The genesis of RealClimate.org seems to have been found. Surprisingly, the BBC’s Roger Harrabin seems to have been involved in the genesis meeting.

UPDATE49: 10:00 AM PST 11/30 While not email related, just as Climategate breaks David Suzuki commits an egregious propaganda error second only to the 10:10 video where kids are blown up for not going along with carbon reduction schemes at school. He’s targeting kids and Santa Claus at Christmas – Santa’s home is melting.

UPDATE48: 9:20 AM PST 11/30 Dr. Phil Jones on the  “lack of warming” -he may need a backup plan.

UPDATE47: 9AM PST 11/30 Fudge factor collection in the emails, or is climate modeling a social issue?

UPDATE46: A look at UEA/CRU’s email infrastructure and email systems in general suggests that the “deleted” emails to/from Phil Jones and others at CRU probably still exist and can be subject to FOIA.

UPDATE45: 1:30PM PST 11/29 If there was award for clueless timing, this would win it no contest: Penn State to lecture on “climate ethics”

UPDATE44: 9AM PST 11/29 Mike Mann reprises the role of Captain Queeg in The Cain Mutiny when seeing de Freitas being vindicated by the publisher of Climate Research (see the update in the article).

UPDATE43: 8AM PST 11/29 An Excel Spreadsheet with Climategate 1 and 2 emails ordered chronologically should be helpful in determining that supposedly missing”context”

UPDATE42:  7AM PST 11/29 The CRU crew says:  “what we really meant was…”

UPDATE41: 4AM PST 11/29 James Padget schools Steve Zwick – Guide to Defending the Indefensible. Some people just can’t handle Climategate.

UPDATE40: 12AM PST 11/29 Penn State has the same “look the other way” problem with Climategate as they did with the Jerry Sandusky scandal.

UPDATE39: It seems “vexatious” is Dr. Phil Jones favorite new feeling word after summer 2009.

UPDATE38: Severinghaus says Mike Mann didn’t give a straight answer regarding why trees don’t work as thermometers after 1950

UPDATE37: Climate sensitivity can’t be quantified with the current data according to NCAR’s Wigley, with paleo data – even less so.

UPDATE36: Dr. Chris de Freitas responds to the ugly attempt by The Team at getting him fired.

UPDATE 35: “Stroppy” Dr Roger Pielke Sr. shows just how much a “old boys network” the peer review process is.

UPDATE34: More internal dissent of the hockey stick. Mann tries to beat down the concern over “hide the decline” while not letting the dissenting scientist know there was a decline.

UPDATE33: Gobsmacking! Rob Wilson proves McIntyre and McKittrick correct in an email to colleagues at CRU, showing that when random noise time series are fed into Mike Mann’s procedure, it makes “hockey sticks”. The confirmation that M&M is right never leaves the walls of CRU.

UPDATE32: 9:30PM PST  11/27 BREAKINGCanada to pull out of Kyoto protocol. Another Climategate fallout ?

UPDATE31: 4:30PM PST 11/27 BOMBSHELL An absolutely disgusting string of communications that shows the tribal attempt at getting an editor of a journal fired on made up issues – all because he allowed a publication that didn’t agree with “the Team”. This is ugly, disturbing, and wrong on every level.

UPDATE30: 9:45 AM PST 11/27 Newsbytes. Major crack in the warming wall at the UK prime minister’s office. BBC in collusion with Climategate scientists.

UPDATE29: 9AM PST 11/27 The saga of the missing station data at CRU and the “pants on fire” defense of it as told by Willis Eschenbach. Dr. Phil Jones is between a rock and a hard place, quite.

UPDATE 28: 1:30PM PST 11/26 An email shows the UNFCCC considers activists an essential tool saying “…organized and deeply committed environmental activism has long been an important part of the UNFCCC process…”

UPDATE27: 7AM PST 11/26 Climategate 2 features prominently in WUWT’s newest feature “Hits and Misses

UPDATE26: 2:50 PM 11/25 Two separate examples show obstruction and collusion by members of “The Team” to prevent any dissenting science from being properly considered by the NRC in 2007.

UPDATE25: 2PM 11/25 Keith Briffa asks another colleague to delete email to avoid FOIA

UPDATE24: 1:30PM 11/25 New Climategate 1/2 combined search engine here

UPDATE23: 9AM PST 11/25 via bishop-hill, strange infighting:

#4101 – Edward Cook tells Phil Jones that Mike Mann is “serious enemy” and “vindictive”. Mike Mann had criticized his work.

Apparently Mann went “a little crazy” over a paper showing the MWP exists.

Details here

UPDATE22: 11AM PST 11/24 Am unsurprising admission from a BBC environmental reporter to Dr. Phil Jones that they really have no impartiality at all (ho ho) when it comes to climate issues.

UPDATE21: 9:50AM PST 11/24 “FOIA2011″ and Climategate – A Chinese-POTUS connection?

UPDATE20: 9:30AM PST 11/24 World renowned climatologist Phil Jones can’t even plot a temperature trend line in Excel. I’ve offered a solution that WUWT readers can help with.

UPDATE19: 9AM PST 11/24 Gail Combs finds some disturbing connections between the Team and The World Bank

UPDATE18: 1:45PM Scott Mandia, aka “Supermandia” wins the award for the silliest climategate rebuttal, ever. It’s like stupid on steroids.

UPDATE17: 12:55PM PST 11/23 Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has an excellent piece on “Gatekeeping” related to Trenberth and the Pielke-Landsea hurricane paper and the IPCC. You may recall Landsea resigned from the IPCC over this. Pielke says: “The gatekeeping of the IPCC process is abundantly clear, and the shadowy suggestion that they can find out who the reviewers are from another colleague is a bit unsettling as well.” Trenberth looks particularly bad here.

UPDATE16: 11:30AM PST 11/23 Insider scientist at CRU says our “reaction to Mike Mann’s errors was not particularly honest” – story here

UPDATE15: 7:50AM 11/23 Ric Werme found an email from the late John L. Daly to Mike Mann and the team – it is well worth a read here

UPDATE14: 2:45 AM PST 11/23 Willis Eschenbach offers a guest post here explaining how his FOIA requests went astray. Mr. David Palmer was the Freedom of Information Officer for the CRU at the time. In the newly released emails, he expresses his frustration with the whole procedure.

UPDATE13: 12:05AM 11/23 Craig Stone writes:

I have published a searchable database of the emails at http://foia2011.org

All email addresses and phone numbers are automatically redacted. It’s extremely rudimentary right now, but I’ll be refining the functionality and improving the search capabilities and navigation over the course of the next week.

UPDATE 12: 9:30 PM PST We’ve known for some time that Al Gore made up a bunch of claims in his AIT movie that simply weren’t true. Now this revelation in the new email batch shows that in the case of Kilimanjaro’s disappearing snows, even Phil Jones and Dr. Lonnie Thompson don’t believe global warming is the cause, even though Thompson put out a press release nearly a year ago saying just that. Told ya so. Pants on fire and all that. Anything for “the cause” right?

UPDATE11: 4:45PM PST Kevin Trenberth gets all misty eyed and sing-songy at Christmas here

UPDATE10: 4:30PM PST Some thoughts on cracking the big remaining all.7z file here

UPDATE9: 2:25PM PST Josh weighs in with the first satirical cartoon here

UPDATE8: 140PM PST Mike Mann shows his true colors:

email 1680.txt

date: Wed, 29 Aug 2007 12:03:05 -0400

from: “Michael E. Mann”..

subject: Re: Something not to pass on

to: Phil Jones

Phil,

I would not respond to this. They will misrepresent and take out of context anything you give them. This is a set up. They will certainly publish this, and will ignore any evidence to the contrary that you provide. s They are going after Wei-Chyung because he’s U.S. and there is a higher threshold for establishing libel. Nonetheless, he should

consider filing a defamation lawsuit, perhaps you too.

I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his thusfar unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.Perhaps the same needs to be done w/ this Keenan guy.

I believe that the only way to stop these people is by exposing them and discrediting them….

UPDATE7: 1:20 PM PST Phil Jones and Tom Wigley calls another scientist (The former state climatologist of California) a “jerk” for publishing his UHI results.

UPDATE6: 12:08PM PST Here’s an email that collaborates a radio interview I did in Seattle with Thomas Peterson in summer 2007, yes these are 100% real emails, no doubt whatsoever now. More here: Climategate 2.0 – NCDC: “Mr. Watts gave a well reasoned position”

UPDATE 5: 11:00AM PST In a statement, UEA doesn’t deny these emails, but posts about the whitewash investigations of the past, like they matter now.

UPDATE4: 9:45 AM PST I’ve changed the headline from Climategate 2.0 to Climategate 2.0  emails – They’re real and they’re spectacular!  with a hat tip to Jerry Seinfeld. The relevance of that headline is particularly interesting in the context of where Dr. James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has his office in NYC.

UPDATE3: 9:25 AM PST – Having read a number of emails, and seeing this quote from Mike Mann in the Guardian:

When asked if they were genuine, he said: “Well, they look like mine but I hardly see anything that appears damning at all, despite them having been taken out of context. I guess they had very little left to work with, having culled in the first round the emails that could most easily be taken out of context to try to make me look bad.”

I’m going to conclude they are the real deal. I’ve posted a BitTorrent link to the file below. One big difference between Climategate 1 and 2 is that in 1, it took days for the MSM to catch on, now they are on top of it.

UPDATE2: 8:45AM PST The Guardian has a story up by Leo Hickman, and this excerpt suggests they may be the real deal:

Norfolk police have said the new set of emails is “of interest” to their investigation to find the perpetrator of the initial email release who has not yet been identified.

The emails appear to be genuine, but this has yet to be confirmed by the University of East Anglia. One of the emailers, the climate scientist Prof Michael Mann, has confirmed that he believes they are his messages.

UPDATE1: 8:20 AM PST These emails have not been verified yet, and this story was posted by one of my moderating staff while I was asleep. Until such time they are verified, tread lightly because without knowing what is behind the rest of the zip file, for all we know it’s a bunch of recipes and collection of  lorem ipsum text files. I’m working to authenticate these now and will report when I know more – Anthony Watts

===============================================================

Early this morning, history repeated itself. FOIA.org has produced an enormous zip file of 5,000 additional emails similar to those released two years ago in November 2009 and coined Climategate. There are almost 1/4 million additional emails locked behind a password, which the organization does not plan on releasing at this time.

The original link was dropped off in the Hurricane Kenneth thread at about 4 AM Eastern. It is still there.

Some initial snippets floating around the blogosphere:

<3373> Bradley: I’m sure you agree–the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year

“reconstruction”.

<3115> Mann:  By the way, when is Tom C going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year

reconstruction??? It would help the cause to be able to refer to that

reconstruction as confirming Mann and Jones, etc.

<3940> Mann:  They will (see below) allow us to provide some discussion of the synthetic

example, referring to the J. Cimate paper (which should be finally accepted

upon submission of the revised final draft), so that should help the cause a

bit.

<0810> Mann: I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she think’s she’s

doing, but its not helping the cause

<2440> Jones: I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the

process

<2094> Briffa: UEA does not hold the very vast majority of mine [potentially FOIable emails] anyway which I copied onto private storage after the completion of the IPCC

task.

JeffId has some initial reaction

From the ReadMe file:

/// FOIA 2011 — Background and Context ///

“Over 2.5 billion people live on less than $2 a day.”

“Every day nearly 16.000 children die from hunger and related causes.”

“One dollar can save a life” — the opposite must also be true.

“Poverty is a death sentence.”

“Nations must invest $37 trillion in energy technologies by 2030 to stabilize

greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels.”

Today’s decisions should be based on all the information we can get, not on

hiding the decline.

This archive contains some 5.000 emails picked from keyword searches. A few

remarks and redactions are marked with triple brackets.

The rest, some 220.000, are encrypted for various reasons. We are not planning

to publicly release the passphrase.

We could not read every one, but tried to cover the most relevant topics such

as…

==============================================================

Here’s one about UHI that is convincing:

cc: liqx@cma.xxx

date: Tue, 25 Sep 2007 11:16:37 +0800

from: =?gb2312?B?JUQ1JUM1JUMwJUYyJUMzJUY0IA==?= <limmy@xxx>

subject: Re:Re: thank you

to: p.jones@xxx

Dear Phil,

Again I find that the emails from my CMA mail boxes can not get to you.

From attaches please find the data of 42 urban stations and 42 rural stations (by your

list) and a reference of homogenization of the data. we have tested and adjusted the abrupt

discontinuities of the data during 1951-2001, but the following years (2002-2004) has only

been quality controled and added to the end of the series, but we found the relocation

during these 3 years have minor effects on the whole series in most of the stations.

I  partly agree with what Prof. Ren said. and we have done some analysis on the urban heat

island effect in China during past years. The results are differnt with Ren’s. But I think

different methods, data, and selection of the urban and rural stations would be the most

important causes of this. So I think it is high time to give some new studies and graw some

conclusion in this topic.  I hope we can make some new achives on this both on global scale

and in China.

Best

Qingxiang

—– Original Message —–

From: “Phil Jones” < p.jones@xxxx >

To: “Rean Guoyoo” < guoyoo@xxxx >

Cc: “%D5%C5%C0%F2%C3%F4” < limmy@xxx>, < liqx@cma.xxx >

Sent: 2007-09-24 16:25:59 +0800

Subject: Re: thank you

Dear Guoyu,

I think I emailed you from America last week. I am away again next week,

but here this week.

I do think that understanding urban influences are important.  I will

wait for Dr Li Qingxiang to send some data, but there is no rush, as I am

quite busy the next few weeks.

Best Regards

Phil

At 00:59 20/09/2007, you wrote:

The following message was returned back when I sent via cma site. I send it again via

this site. I also forwarded this message to Dr, Li Qingxiang.

Regards,

Guoyu

Dear Phil,

Thank you for your message of Sept 11, 2007. I have just been back from the US. Sorry

for the delayed response.

I noted the discussion on blog sites. This is indeed a big issue in the studies of

climate change.

In the past years, we did some analyses of the urban warming effect on surface air

temperature trends in China, and we found the effect is pretty big in the areas we

analyzed. This is a little different from the result you obtained in 1990. I think there

might be at least three reasons for the difference: (1) the areas chosen in the analyses

are different; (2) the time periods analyzed are obviously varied, and the aft-1990

period is seeing a more rapid warming in most areas of China; (3) the rural stations

used for the analyses are different, and we used some stations which we think could be

more representative for the baseline change.

We have published a few of papers on this topic in Chinese. Unfortunately, when we sent

our comments to the IPCC AR4, they were mostly rejected.

It is my opinion that we need to re-assess the urbanization effect on surface air

temperature records for at least some regions of the continents. I am glad that you are

going to redo it using the updated dataset. I expect you to obtain the new outcome.

As for the dataset, I believe that Dr. Li Qingxiang could give you a hand. He and his

group conducted a lot work of detection and adjustment of the inhomogeneities in the

past years, and the adjusted and the raw datasets are all stored and managed in his

center. The datasets we used are also from his center.

I’d be happy to discuss some issues with you late, but I would not necessarily be as a

co-author because my contribution would be rather minor.

Best regards,

Guoyu

NCC, Beijing

Shape Yahoo! in your own image. [1]Join our Network Research Panel today!

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 xxxx

School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 xxxxx

University of East Anglia

Norwich                          Email    p.jones@xxxxx

NR4 7TJ

UK

—————————————————————————-

=======================263ÌìÏÂÓÊ£ÐÅÀµÓÊ×Ôרҵ=======================

Attachment Converted: “c:\eudora\attach\Detecting and Adjusting Temporal Inhomogeneity in

Chinese Mean Surface Air Temperature Data.pdf” Attachment Converted: “c:\eudora\attach\To

Jones.rar”

====================================================================

Here’s a bit torrent link to the FOIA2011.zip file

You’ll need a bit torrent client

BETTER LINK:

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ROCGBR37

Documentation Of A Cozy Interaction Between An AMS BAMS Editor And Phil Jones

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Lance
November 22, 2011 6:36 am

Interesting times we live in….

Rick Bradford
November 22, 2011 6:38 am

The e-mails are hilarious — the sequel is better than the original.
It shows that Jones et al don’t and didn’t have a clue what they were doing, and desperately didn’t want anyone to find out about it, to protect their funding stream.
In any sane world, that would be the ballgame.

John Marshall
November 22, 2011 6:43 am

Even more!
It has also come to light that Mr Harrabin, science and environmental correspondent for the BBC received £15000 from the UEA for services rendered. Harrabin established the BBC as media of choice for climate alarmism. I am having problems at the moment getting a blog about this accepted on Paul Hudson’s page.
So wheels within wheels and money flowing to maintain the lies.
Wonderful revelations just before Durban.

Steeptown
November 22, 2011 6:44 am

Here we go again. Just in time for Durban we learn of more climate science corruption, fraudulent science, FOI illegal activities and cover-ups. Pass the popcorn.

Frank K.
November 22, 2011 6:47 am

I read the e-mails early this morning at Jeff Id’s blog and to be honest there’s nothing unexpected (for me) in the content. It simply confirms what we’ve known all along about the politicization of climate science by the climate elites in search of fame, publicity, and (of course) loads of climate ca$h…
(By the way, Anthony, in the words of Mike Mann in several of the e-mails, you’re NOT helping “the cause” – LOL!).

Ray
November 22, 2011 6:47 am

We see that the insider is still active…

Patrik
November 22, 2011 6:48 am

Wow… Will be interresting to see what they conclude that the scientists haven’t done wrong this time. 🙂
Funny quotes. 🙂

Bloke down the pub
November 22, 2011 6:49 am

It’s beginning to feel a lot like Christmas…..

P. Berkin
November 22, 2011 6:50 am

Admit it, WUWT, you’re funded by Big Popcorn!

Patrik
November 22, 2011 6:50 am

Rick Bradford>> I agree. Better than 1.0 – if they are genuine! 🙂

PaulH
November 22, 2011 6:51 am

The gift that keeps on giving.

Shevva
November 22, 2011 6:51 am

The read me file in MY opinion shows that Mr FOIA is not an environmentalist, conservationist, kill-all-humans(excepttheonesIlike)ist.
But a humanitarian, very rare these days.

ferd berple
November 22, 2011 6:52 am

0021.txt
date: Sat, 12 Sep 2009 16:51:44 +0200
from: Manola Brunet
subject: Re: Omar’s email
to: P.Jones@xxx.xx.xx
Hola Phil,
…snip…
P.Jones@xxx.xx.xx escribió:
> Hola Manola,
> I’ve saved emails at CRU and then deleted them from the server. Now
> I’m at home I just have some hard copies. I also don’t

Steeptown
November 22, 2011 6:53 am

And he has retained 220,000 emails for future release/insurance. Sleep well climatologers.

Editor
November 22, 2011 6:53 am

Climategate 2.0 – see if the MSM can get it right this time.

Bloke down the pub
November 22, 2011 6:55 am

Wasn’t climategate 1.0 released just before a UN climate shindig?

JJ
November 22, 2011 6:55 am

Ray says:
We see that the insider is still active…

Is he? Are any of the new emails of more recent vintage than the release of the first batch?

paul
November 22, 2011 6:55 am

Anyone cracked the PW on the 7zip file yet?

Frank K.
November 22, 2011 6:57 am

Bloke down the pub says:
November 22, 2011 at 6:49 am
It’s beginning to feel a lot like Christmas…..

Yes it is! In fact, here comes Santa “Cause”!!
// The Cause ///
Mann:
By the way, when is Tom C going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year
reconstruction??? It would help the cause to be able to refer to that
reconstruction as confirming Mann and Jones, etc.
Mann:
They will (see below) allow us to provide some discussion of the synthetic
example, referring to the J. Climate paper (which should be finally accepted
upon submission of the revised final draft), so that should help the cause a
bit.
Mann:
I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she think’s she’s
doing, but its not helping the cause.

FerdinandAkin
November 22, 2011 6:57 am

Note there are 220000 more emails ‘hidden’ behind a password. This implies that the password will be used at a later time to reveal them.
I am willing to speculate that the holder of the password is waiting to see if the advocates of CAGW will take some preemptive action to protect their position, and make their situation orders of magnitude worse.
It will be interesting to watch the core members of the hockey team in the coming weeks to see which one breaks for the tall grass first.

Wucash
November 22, 2011 6:57 am

Hah, this is going to be entertaining.
I wonder how many more whitewash inquiries this will produce this time around?

UK Sceptic
November 22, 2011 6:58 am

More explosive revelations of climate fraud [SNIP: a word too far. -REP]? Bring it on!

Kaboom
November 22, 2011 6:58 am

If the ZIP is all text it should be quite vulnerable to brute force cracking by using known information (i.e. email addresses, keywords/phrases) in it.

Steeptown
November 22, 2011 6:59 am

What a coincidence. Oxburgh of inquiry fame just happens to be mentioned in the emails about which his inquiry dealt. No conflict of interest there then.

D. Patterson
November 22, 2011 7:00 am

As Crowley says the “truth” must take a back seat to their presonal relationships, including their religious beliefs and self-appointed duty to arbitrate the end results of climate research. They find the ends justify the means, like so many Utopians before them. Their beliefs and Utopian ideals take precedence over all of tthose other people who may have other Utopian ideals and disagree with them.

Theo Goodwin
November 22, 2011 7:00 am

Donna was prescient when she choose the book title “The Delinquent Teenager…” All of them are delinquent teenagers.

Anonymous
November 22, 2011 7:00 am

I think this is IT caught!
http://nigguraths.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/climategate-ii-more-skeletons-in-the-closet-of-anthropogenic-global-warming/
look at the programs
[REPLY: Those code snippets are from the original FOIA two years ago. There is no computer code in the current download. -REP]

Ray
November 22, 2011 7:01 am

It would seem that we have the reason why Mann doesn’t want those emails released.

November 22, 2011 7:01 am

I may even be running rarcrack now…
(not optimistic given the possibilities, but it’s bopping away on a separate thread)

Andrew
November 22, 2011 7:03 am

Penn would do well to fire Mann immediately (re new emails) considering their extremely fragile position at this time.

Tucci78
November 22, 2011 7:04 am

I’m still in “wait” mode for the .ru server to respond to my download request.
This archive file really ought to be mirrored in multiple locations elsewhere.

Jeff
November 22, 2011 7:04 am

Can anyone re-host the files? I think the original server getting slammed

Tom
November 22, 2011 7:06 am

If there is an encrypted zipped version called ‘all.7z’ and a selection of unencrypted files, then it seems rather likely that we have several cleartext and encrypted pairs. Shouldn’t take some clever people very long to break that…

stanj
November 22, 2011 7:07 am

Buy popcorn and whitewash futures!
Have to say I’m enormously impressed with the patience of FOIA – to sit on that treasure trove for 2 years waiting for the right moment to strike again.
The mention of the password is surely a threat – we’ve already seen the BBC’s Richard Black’s dismissive reaction. I wonder if further attempts at whitewashing will see the nuclear strike of releasing the password.

Sean Peake
November 22, 2011 7:07 am

Moderators, I guess you’ll need to call in reinforcements to handle the coming tsunami of comments. To quote Flounder in the epic Animal House,”Oh boy, is this great!”

JonasM
November 22, 2011 7:08 am

I’m also hoping for someone to extract the MIME-encoded attachments. I’m swamped at work today with a big deplloyment or I’d give it a shot.

TheBigYinJames
November 22, 2011 7:11 am

You won’t break AES-256 (the encryption used by 7-zip) in a zillion years, but no matter, have fun trying 🙂
I do love the way that we all now have all of the emails, but we can’t read them until the key is released – this makes further revelations very easy to do without any more uploading of files to dodgy servers. Just the key posted on a blog and the whole lot is out.
Clever.

Grant
November 22, 2011 7:14 am

“…there are reports circulating of unprecedented demand on the world’s whitewash reserves…”

November 22, 2011 7:14 am

Golly this is gonna be fun.

Michael R
November 22, 2011 7:15 am

As with the last time, I have re-uploaded to another download location in case the first one stops working.
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ROCGBR37

diogenes
November 22, 2011 7:15 am

there’s a torrent url
http://tinyurl.com/d7jxlt7

Tobias Ostien
November 22, 2011 7:15 am

Kick the leaves and the cockroaches shuffle….hear that sound?

dave ward
November 22, 2011 7:16 am

As huge amounts of computer processing power are now readily available (via the “Cloud” for example), I imagine attempts are already being made to brute force the password…
The US Air Force linked up 1760 Sony PS3’s and got themselves a cheap but extremely capable super computer: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/31784/US_Air_Force_Creates_Powerful_Supercomputer_Out_Of_PS3s.php

wfrumkin
November 22, 2011 7:17 am

I wish this would finally bring an end to the global warming/ climate disruption movement. Unfortunately, I suspect the climate disruption zombies will keep going no matter how clearly their lies are exposed. I think this site should run a contest to predct the exact date when the truth finally triumphs and global warming dies. I bet everyone playing would donate towards a prize. I bet the contest would get media coverage too.

Editor
November 22, 2011 7:21 am

If Jones really said “I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the
process”

He should be suspended immediately.

Tucci78
November 22, 2011 7:22 am

At 7:03 AM on 22 November, Andrew had written:

Penn would do well to fire Mann immediately (re new emails) considering their extremely fragile position at this time.

Be advised that in the Keystone State and thitherabouts, the use of “Penn” denotes the University of Pennsylvania, an Ivy League school in Philadelphia, whereas Dr. Mann is employed (for the nonce) by Pennsylvania State University, established in Centre County as the Commonwealth’s agricultural school.
When referring to this latter (now exquisitely tarnished) institution, it’s common to differentiate it as “Penn State,” not “Penn.”

November 22, 2011 7:26 am

@TheBigYinJames
And if it’s structured correctly, each archive could contain another encrypted archive to allow the mail to be released in tranches. A bit like an electronic onion, but perhaps with more crying.

ChE
November 22, 2011 7:26 am

Jones: I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process

Silly man. 😆 😆

November 22, 2011 7:28 am

If it talks like a conspiracy, and walks like a conspiracy, it just might be a – conspiracy…

November 22, 2011 7:29 am

The most fascinating part of this is to watch it spread around the blogosphere (with of course the MSM being quiet as a tit mouse). I caught it early at tAV, but even Oz got it within an hour!

Kev-in-Uk
November 22, 2011 7:29 am

Paul Homewood says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:21 am
He should have been sacked two years ago! The manipulative little twonk. I had some sympathy for him originally, thinking he may just be a misguided scapegoat – but he is clearly in the thick of it. Worse still, as I have said for all of the miscreant self protecting sycophantic members of the ‘Team’ – the day one of them has the guts and decency to become a scientist again, admit mistakes and retract their pre-fabricated BS – is the day that science can hold its head up high again. But I’m not holding my breath.
In respect of the this new release, I can only hope the politicos realise that they are the also ones who have been duped and immediately decide to cut ALL AGW related funding dead in its tracks, at least until the truth is out.

Editor
November 22, 2011 7:30 am

I don’t think we should get too excited about the 220,000 emails behind the password. My guess is these are non relevant and personal emails that would only strengthen the argument that “scientists’ personal emails should not be released” if they were put online.

Gary
November 22, 2011 7:35 am

November – the month of miracles.
FOIA – who are those guys?

dearieme
November 22, 2011 7:37 am

I wonder how the chump who released the “BEST” results feels now? Proud of the club he’s joined? Keen on The Cause?
Anyway, back to scepticism: how do we know they’re genuine?

November 22, 2011 7:38 am

Yet this will once again be swept under the rug. It is interesting to see how the media has already chosen sides in this.

ChE
November 22, 2011 7:38 am

If I had to guess, the encrypted files were included as insurance against a complete server wipe. This way, they can run their servers through the fires of hell, and FOIA forever retains the option of releasing them.

November 22, 2011 7:39 am

Probably the same guy that did Climategate 1.0.
No new emails from 2010 & 2011
Ecotretas

Don Monfort
November 22, 2011 7:41 am

OK, I will say it. It’s worse than we thought.

November 22, 2011 7:42 am

Well, we all knew they were fooling us.
Despite COP 17 being held here, I am finding the knowledge on the subject at the universities here in South Africa so appalling that it reminds me of the situation 35 years ago when we had these scores of white people and (white) universities who actually believed that black people were animals.
There are no papers and there has not been any research here on the subject of man induced global warming. So the whole world is relying on these fraudsters like Mann.
In the meantime I have done my own research.
An important finding that I made is that a correlation can be picked up if you compare the results in my tables with that of the leaf area index, shown in the world chart below:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/the-earths-biosphere-is-booming-data-suggests-that-co2-is-the-cause-part-2/
In the red areas, which shows the areas on earth where life is blooming and where it is getting greener, you will note from the results in my tables that the increase in maxima is picked up and trapped by the increasing vegetation as exhibited by higher means and minima. In the blue ares, where substantial de-forestation has been going on, you will find mean temperatures staying largely unchanged or even declining, even though maxima are rising.
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/more-carbon-dioxide-is-ok-ok

November 22, 2011 7:42 am

Voila, “noble cause corruption” again. The end justifies the means.

DaveS
November 22, 2011 7:43 am

If genuine, then Acton and Davies at the UEA are going to look pretty stupid too, given the lengths they have gone to to defend dear little Phil.

1DandyTroll
November 22, 2011 7:45 am

” Mann:
the important thing is to make sure they’re loosing the PR battle. That’s what
the site [Real Climate] is about.”
Real Climate or the climate of PR not the science of climate but the science of how to make the other side win … And a splendid job you did little Mann. :p

mikef2
November 22, 2011 7:45 am

..yippee…I’m the first toi say “its worse than we thought”………

MikeEE
November 22, 2011 7:46 am

“Nations must invest $37 trillion in energy technologies by 2030 to stabilize
greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels.”
The US is $15 trillion in debt. How much debt does Europe have. So who is going to pay? The Chinese? I think their vastly overrated holdings won’t even dent that number.
MikeEE

November 22, 2011 7:47 am

http://files.sinwt.ru/download.php?file=25FOIA2011.zip
Link is gone I hope a lot of you downloaded it.

J Brunemeier
November 22, 2011 7:47 am

Penn State’s Michael Mann should be convicted of molesting young temperature data!!

Shevva
November 22, 2011 7:47 am

It’s already up at the BBC, check Bishop Hills blog about the play that won the award for a link (Credit where credits due) ->

Alan the Brit
November 22, 2011 7:48 am

I wonder who this guy is, he is certainly very clever & patient! Was the November 09 release just a warning shot across the Clique’s bow to try & get a reaction to come a little bit clean on the realities? Is this the second warning shot now a lot closer to that bow? Is the final release the “all right matey youv’e asked for it” shot straight amidships to blow the Clique ship clean out of the water? Whatever it is, it’s going to get jolly uncomfortable & rather smelly as the steaming brown stuff flies around the interweb, for some people in East Anglia & Penn State (or is it State Penn?)! Lovely jubbly, can’t wait! 🙂

A physicist
November 22, 2011 7:51 am

If we mask-out from this Watts Up With That? post those claims that amount to:
   (1) slogan-shouting,
   (2) cherry-picking, and
   (3) witch-hunting,
is there is anything left of Watts Up With That? but hollowed-out blank pages?
That hollowing-out is the common-sense reason why the perception of a “Conservative War on Science” is becoming the consensus view of America’s mathematicians, scientists, and engineers … and even more seriously for all who hope that American conservatism has any future, is becoming the consensus view too of America’s serious-minded CEOs.
Fortunately, those hollowed-out brands of conservatism that are grounded in slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting are unlikely to survive the coming decade — and will not deserve to survive. Whereas the robust brand of conservatism espoused (for example) by J. Wayne Leonard, Chairman and CEO of the Entergy Corporation, in his letter “Entergy and the Environment” (Google it!) has excellent changes to provide solid foundations for 21st century American conservatism.
Everyone understands that slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting is going to continue unceasingly here on Watts Up With That and other ideology-first sites (both far-left and far-right) … and everyone understands too that this slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting has become utterly irrelevant to the serious concerns of America’s mathematicians, scientists, engineers, and CEOs.

November 22, 2011 7:53 am

Gosh,
I’m just surprised how many passwords are conveyed through email… I hadn’t done that search in Climategate 1.0 🙁

November 22, 2011 7:53 am

Here is an example of the science presented at the
Santa Fe conference (November 2011)
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SantaFe2011.htm
Was this taken seriously ?
I hope not !
Pal Brekke , H. Abdussamatov, Lockwood any comments ?

David
November 22, 2011 7:56 am

This one wis classic, Pery like, ecept Perry at least at one time new the answer.
3456> Overpeck:
I agree w/ Susan [Solomon] that we should try to put more in the bullet about
“Subsequent evidence” […] Need to convince readers that there really has been
an increase in knowledge – more evidence. WHAT IS IT?

November 22, 2011 7:57 am

OK folks be prepared for these defences:
i) “I won’t touch stolen emails”
ii) “these are out of context”
Then check to see what these people are on the record as saying with regards to Wikileaks….

tallbloke
November 22, 2011 7:57 am

‘foia’ left a comment on the talkshop at 9.28GMT. We’ve been looking through some of the mails and found some juicy bits.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/breaking-news-foia-2011-has-arrived/
There’s a torrent link there now too.

November 22, 2011 7:59 am

Best email till now, from Phil:
Here are a few other thoughts. From looking at Climate Audit every few days,
these people are not doing what I would call academic research. Also from
looking they will not stop with the data, but will continue to ask for the original
unadjusted data (which we don’t have) and then move onto the software used
to produce the gridded datasets (the ones we do release).
CRU is considered by the climate community as a data centre, but we don’t
have any resources to undertake this work. Any work we have done in the past
is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden. I’ve
discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are
happy about not releasing the original station data.

(…)
Some of you may not know, but the dataset has been sent by someone at the Met Office
to McIntyre. The Met Office are trying to find out who did this. I’ve ascertained it most
likely came from there, as I’m the only one who knows where the files are here.

David
November 22, 2011 8:00 am

Briffa here is quite clear on his internal repression of a true scientific view
2009> Briffa:
I find myself in the strange position of being very skeptical of the quality of
all present reconstructions, yet sounding like a pro greenhouse zealot here!
I wonder where here was.

G. Karst
November 22, 2011 8:01 am

This is beginning to have the elements of an extortion play. Mann you must do this and that or the password gets released. I hope someone cracks the zip and any criminal intent thwarted.
I wonder if Mann, Jones, and the others have already picked out nice condo(s) in China. I heard Maurice Strong has been feeling lonely lately. I worked under Maurice, for a time, and I know how he loved having an entourage around himself. Most dangerous men do! GK

maz2
November 22, 2011 8:02 am

Leftist Red-Green Grauniad on the offensive.
Grauniad is hacking & spitting …
…-
“Hacked climate science emails leaked”
“Last updated less than one minute ago”
“File containing 5,000 emails made available in an apparent attempt to repeat impact of 2009 release”
“In the new release a 173MB zip file called “FOIA2011” containing more than 5,000 new emails, was made available to download on a Russian server called Sinwt.ru today. An anonymous entity calling themselves “FOIA” then posted a link to the file on at least four blogs popular with climate sceptics – Watts Up With That, Climate Audit, TallBloke and The Air Vent. The same tactic was used in 2009 when the first 160MB batch of emails were released after being obtained – possibly illegally – from servers based at the University of East Anglia, where a number of the climate scientists involved were based.
One marked difference from the original 2009 release is that the person or persons responsible has included a message headed “background and context” which, for the first time, gives an insight into their motivations.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/22/fresh-hacked-climate-science-emails

David
November 22, 2011 8:05 am

Did Jones really say, “we’re choosing the periods to show warming” Does anybody have some blink charts available?
2775> Jones:
I too don’t see why the schemes should be symmetrical. The temperature ones
certainly will not as we’re choosing the periods to show warming

Ryan
November 22, 2011 8:05 am

“This archive contains some 5.000 emails picked from keyword searches. A few
remarks and redactions are marked with triple brackets. The rest, some 220.000, are encrypted for various reasons. We are not planning to publicly release the passphrase.”
I would guess from this that FOIA used a keyword search within the 220,000 emails to quickly find the juiciest ones and present those. I am guessing that with these juicy emails removed, the remaining 220,000 are not so interesting, apart from a handful of exceptions.
I guess FOIA did things this way because Team AGW used the fact that a lot of the previous released emails were just “blah” and therefore they were able to imply that all of the emails were uninteresting to discourage their acolytes from delving further. FOIA probably need to read and process some of the emails to ensure that simply posting them all isn’t putting anybody at risk (especially if FOIA is an insider that could be named in the emails – maybe he/she got fired in 2009/2010?).

November 22, 2011 8:06 am

I’m willing to bet that some clever investigator will be able to eventually puzzle out what the passphrase is since these climate scientologists aren’t so bright that none of them would ever leave the passphrase lying around on some server in an unencrypted form – buried in an email or some such…

Jonas N
November 22, 2011 8:06 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am
____________________________
Your comment sounds a lot like:
‘It started by them hitting back … ‘

Latitude
November 22, 2011 8:07 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am
====================================
The preceding public service announcement was brought to you by Pfizer pharmaceuticals, the makers of Aricept…….

Greg Holmes
November 22, 2011 8:08 am

“Getting people we know and trust into the IPCC will help” gawd I just love Jonesey. UEA will have a wriggle a lot to win the Ministers aroung=d this time, the MP’s in house, well the ones who are awake, will catch up on this , in about a week or so. Harrabin is a DMW.

Harriet Harridan
November 22, 2011 8:08 am

Torrent link:
tinyurl.com/d7jxlt7
[Supplied via Tallbloke’s Blog]
It’s slow at the moment, but as more people join it’ll get exponentially faster. Please keep seeding

Tucci78
November 22, 2011 8:08 am

Pennsylvania State University – the employer (for the nonce) of our hockey-sticking “suppressio veri, suggestio falsi” Dr. Mann – is currently getting scandal-to-the-jaybirds treatment in the (old, moribund, bankrupt, and increasingly irrelevant) “mainstream” media over the eyeball-grabbing salacity of events more than nine years ago in the shower facilities of the school’s Division I football program (the only real reason why the Commonwealth’s former agricultural high school in Centre County has any national prominence at all).
With this antique but gonads-groping story occupying every third minute of the news cycle throughout the nation (all these nominally orthosexual men and women so lickerishly fixated upon allegations of a grown man in unnatural coitus with little boys…), and in light of the fact that the MSM “journalista” types desire desperately to shove the preposterous anthropogenic global warming fraud figuratively up the public tochus for their own left-”Liberal” political purposes, this FOIA2011.zip archive is going to get studiedly ignored to death.
Looks as if we’re going to have to hammer this one home ourselves, just as we had to do with FOIA2009.zip.
Gives continued significance to the phrase “an army of Davids.”

Ken Hall
November 22, 2011 8:10 am

” Crowley:
Phil, thanks for your thoughts – guarantee there will be no dirty laundry in
the open.”
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!! I <3 FOIA!

ChE
November 22, 2011 8:10 am

Time for a memory check. I seem to recall Deep Climate (cryptically) saying at the time of the original drop that there was more. Can that be confirmed? This may very well have been sitting around for two years.

motsatt
November 22, 2011 8:12 am

P. Berkin says:
November 22, 2011 at 6:50 am
Admit it, WUWT, you’re funded by Big Popcorn!
Spot on. This should be fun 🙂

TRM
November 22, 2011 8:14 am

Don’t worry I’m sure Penn State and CRU will do another thorough investigation (HA!). The BBC article on this ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-15840562 ) mentions the previous investigations and clearance of those involved constantly. Me thinks they do protest too much 🙂
Ah my Christmas present came early this year. Happy reading all.

ujagoff
November 22, 2011 8:14 am

It’s better than we thought…. Indeed.

Jean Parisot
November 22, 2011 8:15 am

I burned a few to DVDs to drop off on CapHill – just in case their firewall block some of those dodgy file sites. Whoever does have the password, an “in confidence” letter to Issa’s office would be appropriate – at a minimum to establish your whistleblower status.

David
November 22, 2011 8:16 am

A clear will to repress results, even from models tuned for desired results, if they do not match your CAGW senario.
0310> Warren:
The results for 400 ppm stabilization look odd in many cases […] As it stands
we’ll have to delete the results from the paper if it is to be published.”
Be warned, the feel their life is threatened by posts like Bob Tisdales, showing ocean caused multidecadal trends. (Mosher, stop supporting these guys)
Wils:
[2007] What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural
fluctuation? They’ll kill us probably […]
No Wils, but prison is posssible.

Andrew Harding
Editor
November 22, 2011 8:16 am

“Climategate” I feel was the turning point for AGW. Most people don’t believe AGW because it goes against common sense, Climategate actually provided the evidence to say that it is a big hoax. Like all things of this nature, Climategate was a seven day wonder and AGW proponents are at it again with their ridiculous statements. Now we have “Climategate 2” which should reaffirm the original Climategate. The person who has these e-mails is being very clever, he/she knows that if they were released all at the same time then the effect on public opinion would not be as great than if they were released twice or preferably on several more occasions.
We have had “The Cause” I am now looking forward to the effect!

Martin Clauss
November 22, 2011 8:16 am

Dang, I missed this when it first came out, and I should have loaded up on stocks in POPCORN companies . . . maybe I still have chance . . .?
Just fascinating the whole thing. I might guess that the recent spate of papers and articles trying to push CAGW hard again, just before Durban, this was a ‘response’ to that.
Enormous thanks to the person(s) who allowed access to the e-mails ! And thanks to you, Anthony, and to Jeff ID, and Tallbloke, and Steve M. . . and ALL other I have missed!

JJ
November 22, 2011 8:17 am

A physicist says:
That hollowing-out is the common-sense reason why the perception of a “Conservative War on Science” is becoming the consensus view of America’s mathematicians, scientists, and engineers …

Gads, another fabricated “consensus”.
Speaking as an American scientist, I view the “Conservative War on Science” meme to be little more than the Liberal Pot’s preferred method of chasing the Conservative Kettle around the political cooktop. The damage that Liberal religiosity is doing to science right now is unprecidented.
… and even more seriously for all who hope that American conservatism has any future, is becoming the consensus view too of America’s serious-minded CEOs.
LOL. Serious minded CEO? You mean the ones that see the ‘wisdom’ in making sure the tracks for the gravy train run through their station? Yes, they can be quite serious about such things. Downright earnest, if they think they can garner a subsidy or a mandate …

Nick Shaw
November 22, 2011 8:17 am

I absolutely LOVE this one
Cook:
A growing body of evidence clearly shows [2008] that hydroclimatic variability
during the putative MWP (more appropriately and inclusively called the
“Medieval Climate Anomaly” or MCA period) was more regionally extreme (mainly
in terms of the frequency and duration of megadroughts) than anything we have
seen in the 20th century, except perhaps for the Sahel. So in certain ways the
MCA period may have been more climatically extreme than in modern times.
LMFAO! Take it Mikey! Take it deep!

Tucci78
November 22, 2011 8:18 am

At 8:06 AM on 22 November, Tom Davidson had commented:

I’m willing to bet that some clever investigator will be able to eventually puzzle out what the passphrase is since these climate scientologists aren’t so bright that none of them would ever leave the passphrase lying around on some server in an unencrypted form – buried in an email or some such…

The password encryption scheme imposed on the FOIA2011.zip archive had not been the work of “these climate scientologists,” but rather that of the FOIA.org folk who had organized the file and released it to the ‘Net.
Doubtless there are “cracker” types out in the virtual universe who have the ability and the inclination to break the embargo, and we’ll see it accomplished soon enough. Such folk respond to these kinds of challenges with gusto.
But “these climate scientologists” are merely peculators and fraudsters, clumsy in their arrogance and positions of government-funded privilege, with all the real security consciousness of the average seven-year-old sneaking cookies out of the kitchen.
Don’t attribute to them even the kind of conscientiousness required to learn the use of TrueCrypt.

David
November 22, 2011 8:19 am

Jones just never stops, yuck.
1788> Jones:
There shouldn’t be someone else at UEA with different views [from “recent
extreme weather is due to global warming”] – at least not a climatologist.

wobble
November 22, 2011 8:19 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am
is there is anything left of Watts Up With That? but hollowed-out blank pages?

Ironically, it is your comment which is quite hollowed out.
Watts Up With That is chocked full of science and scientific discussions. Your claims to the contrary are strange.

Ken Hall
November 22, 2011 8:20 am

“A physicist says: ….”
What you posted was such a classical example of projection that psychology students could use it as a case study.
Most of the people here at WUWT are interested in truth. The alarmists are the ones who indulge in cherry picking and slogan shouting and avoiding the real science and attacking the messenger. Just as you are doing, hiding behind the name “A physicist”….

David
November 22, 2011 8:20 am

A climatologist, and his view of the scientific method…
4693> Crowley:
I am not convinced that the “truth” is always worth reaching if it is at the
cost of damaged personal relationships

wobble
November 22, 2011 8:23 am

Andrew says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:03 am
Penn [State] would do well to fire Mann immediately (re new emails) considering their extremely fragile position at this time.

Concur. The president that protected Mann is gone after a “cover-up” scandal of sorts was exposed. It’s quite possible that the university will now steer clear of new cover-up out of fear of being branded by cover-ups.
It’s time to hit Penn State about Michael Mann again and hit them hard.
Any PA State senators reading?

David
November 22, 2011 8:24 am

Just wow,
2095> Steig:
He’s skeptical that the warming is as great as we show in East Antarctica — he
thinks the “right” answer is more like our detrended results in the
supplementary text. I cannot argue he is wrong.”
I wonder who “he} is, but thes clowns do not wish their “dirty laundry”, code for scientific doubts, to be in the open…
2733> Crowley:
Phil, thanks for your thoughts – guarantee there will be no dirty laundry in
the open.

Ryan
November 22, 2011 8:26 am

@A physicist: Nice straw man you’ve created there! I guess Entergy is hoping to get a slice of that $37trillion that would need to be spent on “renewables” to meet Team AGW targets. Where do physicists get a job these days? Wouldn’t be in carbon-free electricity generation in your case would it?

David
November 22, 2011 8:26 am

Well Gates, do you still wish to join hands with this man and claim the cooling 1940 to 1970 was manmade.
0953> Jones:
This will reduce the 1940-1970 cooling in NH temps. Explaining the cooling with
sulphates won’t be quite as necessary

Steve Oregon
November 22, 2011 8:27 am

I want to read “cause for prosecution”

November 22, 2011 8:27 am

a physicist says:
Everyone understands that slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting is going to continue unceasingly here on Watts Up With That and other ideology-first sites (both far-left and far-right)
Henry says
We have to get rid of this idea that we “have” to vote for people (who vote for us on issues)
We have to vote in the idea that people have the right to vote for issues
especially in the modern world where people can vote with a click.
( I bank on-line, so why cannot we all vote on-line?, for issues I mean)
Now if we were all to ask our parliaments that we want to be able to vote like they do,
why would we still need parliamentarians?
The money saved can be used for elderly coming to schools to be able to vote on issues, rather than vote for people
Anyway, for those interested in my earlier comment, see here
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/#comment-804548

Ken Hall
November 22, 2011 8:29 am

Mann Should be toast after this, as should Jones, Briffa et all, and all the other usual suspects involved in perverting peer review and locking real science out of the IPCC.
We need a bunch of real scientists to replace them at the IPCC and then the next IPCC report might actually be honest, for once.

john
November 22, 2011 8:29 am

I hope that the good folks at http://cryptome.org/ take a good hard look at this new development.

ferd berple
November 22, 2011 8:31 am

Wow, it didn’t take long for the link to disappear! Both these look good.
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ROCGBR37
torrent url
http://tinyurl.com/d7jxlt7

November 22, 2011 8:32 am

“UPDATE: 8:20 AM PST These emails have not been verified yet, […] Until such time they are verified, tread lightly because without knowing what is behind the rest of the zip file, for all we know it’s a bunch of recipes and collection of ipsem lorem text files. I’m working to authenticate these now and will report when I know more – Anthony Watts”
That is why I love this blog. Because you guys always strive to stick with the truth. There is enough ugly in the truth without having to revert to any bogus publication. I am waiting too see how all this goes and I am certain that also this time Antony and his team will confirm their trustworthiness.

Steeptown
November 22, 2011 8:32 am

“A physicist” is clearly not a physicist. It takes one to know one.

Kaboom
November 22, 2011 8:33 am

Briffa (2967) “To what extent is this issue now generally considered urgent, or even
real?”
A fabulous insight into AGW-think. Urgency of an issue trumps its reality.

F. Ross
November 22, 2011 8:33 am

Does this mean that all the investigations that “cleared” the various actors in this whole travesty were NOT really cleared? /sarc.
“Plop, plop, fizz, fizz, oh what a relief it is.”
Now if we just had some model DDT to spray on all the model cockroaches …

David
November 22, 2011 8:33 am

More support for Tidale, Mosher, stop helping these people.
5131> Shukla/IGES:
[“Future of the IPCC”, 2008] It is inconceivable that policymakers will be
willing to make billion-and trillion-dollar decisions for adaptation to the
projected regional climate change based on models that do not even describe and
simulate the processes that are the building blocks of climate variability.

David Falkner
November 22, 2011 8:34 am

The celebrations are a bit premature, I think. Are they actual emails? How will we know for sure? If they are, I am personally beginning to wonder if the leaks aren’t coming from a foreign governmental entity. China and Russia have been doing quite a bit of hacking recently.

Latitude
November 22, 2011 8:35 am

Wondering how long until the media tries to frame it……
Stolen, criminals, thieves, crime……..etc

G. Karst
November 22, 2011 8:36 am

Now we know why climatologists are picking up musical instruments and forming bands. It may soon be their only way to finally earn a living. GK

Jean Parisot
November 22, 2011 8:36 am

“the cause” will make a nice synonym for “conspiracy to commit …”

stephan
November 22, 2011 8:39 am

AW I dont think this stuff could be made up ie there genuine

November 22, 2011 8:39 am

The encrypted file has very big files inside (several MBs).
That was not observed in ClimateGate 1.0

Gary
November 22, 2011 8:40 am

From the UK Guardian, this quote:

Prof Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Centre at Penn State University, who is quoted in the batch of released emails described the release as “truly pathetic”.
When asked if they were genuine, he said: “Well, they look like mine but I hardly see anything that appears damning at all, despite them having been taken out of context. I guess they had very little left to work with, having culled in the first round the emails that could most easily be taken out of context to try to make me look bad.”
He said, the people behind the release were “agents doing the dirty bidding of the fossil fuel industry know they can’t contest the fundamental science of human-caused climate change. So they have instead turned to smear, innuendo, criminal hacking of websites, and leaking out-of-context snippets of personal emails in their effort to try to confuse the public about the science and thereby forestall any action to combat this critical threat. Its right out of the tried-and-true playbook of climate change denial.”

Sticking to his story…

Tucci78
November 22, 2011 8:42 am

At 8:23 AM on 22 November, wobble writes:

The president that protected Mann is gone after a “cover-up” scandal of sorts was exposed. It’s quite possible that the university will now steer clear of new cover-up out of fear of being branded by cover-ups.
It’s time to hit Penn State about Michael Mann again and hit them hard.
Any PA State senators reading?

Gawd. You’ve never been either to State College or to Harrisburg, have you, wobble?
As in most state governments, there is in the Commonwealth a culture of corruption and thoroughly “bipartisan” concealment of corruption that dates back to Colonial times, thoroughly understood by those of us who have perforce had to waste our time and effort in dealings with these meatgrinders of political chicanery but utterly unappreciated by the average citizen, whose interface with “the Malevolent Jobholder” doesn’t rise beyond the quiet desperation of the bewildered passive victim.
The recent appointment of Louis Freeh (former Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation) to figurehead “the university board of trustees’ internal investigation into the abuse allegations that ultimately led to the ouster of longtime football coach Joe Paterno and university president Graham Spanier” (i.e., yet another whitewash, this time with a putative paragon of probity to make it menthol) is nothing more than gaudy stonewalling perpetrated at honkin’ humongous cost to the pitiful sweating Pennsylvania taxpayer.
And I guaran-goddam-tee you that all the “PA State senators reading” about this are breathing sighs of relief at the fact that they can now respond to their angry constituents’ inquiries with: “Hey, we’ve got the former boss of the FBI handling this!”
Confident, of course, that absolutely nothing of real substance (or hazardous to things-as-they-are) will ever see the light of day.

David Falkner
November 22, 2011 8:43 am

Oh, whoops! Now I see the update by Anthony. Should have known you’d be on that.

November 22, 2011 8:43 am

“Over 2.5 billion people live on less than $2 a day.”
“Every day nearly 16.000 children die from hunger and related causes.”
“One dollar can save a life” — the opposite must also be true.
“Poverty is a death sentence.”
“Nations must invest $37 trillion in energy technologies by 2030 to stabilize
greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels.”
Today’s decisions should be based on all the information we can get, not on
hiding the decline.
AND THE REAL PEACE PRIZE GOES TO…Those who seek truth!

Viv Evans
November 22, 2011 8:43 am

Picked from the stuff at AirVent:
Jones:
Basic problem is that all models are wrong – not got enough middle and low
level clouds.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Well well well – all models are wrong, Professor Phil Jones?
But we still must pay trillions to alleviate something based on wrong models …
How dare they!

John
November 22, 2011 8:44 am

I concur with TheOnlyPomi,
I trust you will be cautious, Anthony. Based on your excellent track record. I’m certain there are plenty of those who would deceive you.
Good look!

kwik
November 22, 2011 8:45 am

Mann:
I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she think’s she’s
doing, but its not helping the cause

November 22, 2011 8:50 am

I’m not a scientist, and certainly not a climate scientist. What I know is mostly self taught and many of the discussions on this blog, frankly, go a bit over my head.
However, one thing I know a tremendous amount about is electronic discovery. Any suggestion that only these 5,000 emails have anything worth reading is ~WAY~ off base. While keyword searching is a great way to find what you’re thinking about – at the moment – it is limited by the scope and imagination of the one crafting the search terms. One of many limitations, but probably the most important.
There’s a treasure trove of information somewhere in those other 220k emails. Much could well be exculpatory. There is no longer any advantage to the team to continue to resist FOIA and not just go ahead and make all documentation public. That password is going to be released one day anyway. Pulling the bandaid slowly won’t really make it hurt less.
I also find myself thinking that the Michael Mann whitewash should be part of the investigation going on at Penn State. The CYA climate fostered at that institution now has some true victims of crime. The odor of cover-up from the Board of Trustees on down is fetid. It points to a knee-jerk response that has become their automatic modus operandi. One that is not in the long term best interests of an institution they purport to love.

TheGoodLocust
November 22, 2011 8:50 am

When the first Climategate emails came out they really ringed true to me. Something seems off about this – like they are too incriminating? Could they really be this stupid and fanatical?
I don’t know.
I need to read through them more; I’m going to reserve judgement.
If these do turn out to be true then the defense will be, “It is only a small segment of climate scientists. 97% of 1000’s of scientists agree on man-made climate change.”

November 22, 2011 8:50 am

Does anyone have the zip file? Either the link is bad or (I suspect) so many people have tried to download it that it crashed the server.
Please send to mark@ispyonsalem if you do.

danj
November 22, 2011 8:51 am

The BBC uses the release to continue its defense of Jones, Mann, et al.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-15840562

Dreadnought
November 22, 2011 8:52 am

Happy days are here again! I’ve been saying since Spring that Climategate 2.0 would break this Autumn, and it’s nice to be right. I’m very much looking forward to reading all the naughty snippets that are gleaned from this latest batch, and earnestly hoping that they get considerably more MSM coverage this time.
Whilst we are urged to tread lightly for now (with good reason), if these emails are indeed verified as bona fide then I hope that not only the main culprits are finally brought to book, but that all the whitewash ‘inquiries ‘after Climategate 1.0 will be shown to be such and leave those involved with serious egg on their face.
BTW, if you’re reading this ‘FOIA 2011’, good on yer for putting these out there just at the right time once again! They should give a lot of people pause for thought, not least the droves of teat-suckers who are packing their suitcases ready for the latest taxpayer-funded knees-up in Durban next week.

Jean Parisot
November 22, 2011 8:55 am

Right before a long weekend, so we all have time to pick thru this — nice timing foia.

Spector
November 22, 2011 8:56 am

Of course references here to ‘the cause’ are perfect examples of the ‘Noble Cause Corruption’ of Science, when an assumed noble ideal is allowed to force the interpretation of scientific experiments and data. In the modern world this is compounded by computer models that can be developed creating artificial realities to support this cause without recourse to ground truths.

mikef2
November 22, 2011 8:57 am

grrrr..I see Don Montfort beat me to it after all…I did not see your comment earlier Don I promise, maybe it was while we were in moderation I think, damn.
Can we call it a draw?
Ohhhh….idea…lets go see if anyone has said it yet on Bish’s site.
I know…little things, but it is a rather happy day wot!
More seriously…lets get it all guaranteed its genuine first, then send it to everyone who doubted the orig climagate meme. I cannot see how anyone of the original ‘nothing to see here’ brigade can get away with it this time.
If its all true of course.

pat
November 22, 2011 8:57 am

If real, this explains what Mann et al. are hiding from the various FOIA requests. This and the Climategate 3.0 which will discuss the placement of individuals on panels, the EPAs complicity in funding this nonsense, etc.

November 22, 2011 8:58 am

If it’s a zip, and the password is done with the zip system, it might be amenable to cryptanalysis. Anyone? It almost seems an invitation.

danj
November 22, 2011 8:58 am

It is interesting to get a glimpse into the motivation of FOIA 2011. He/she obviously is concerned about the impact overbearing government regulations on carbon emissions will have on those who are least able to endure higher energy costs–the poor. As Dr. Christy has so aptly stated: “Life without energy is short and brutal.” FOIA 2011 obviously shares that belief and is attempting to act accordingly.

jeff
November 22, 2011 9:02 am

Interesting claim in the BBC article by Richard Black,
“A hacker entered a backup server at the university and downloaded a file containing administrative passwords, which were subsequently used to access a vast number of files and emails dating back to 1997.”

jeff 5778
November 22, 2011 9:02 am

How many people does it take to create the atmosphere that a complete change in how money is transacted should take place world wide?

Alberta Slim
November 22, 2011 9:03 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am
====================================
Time for you to get back to looking for the Higgs Boson.
WUWT is the best site on the planet.

November 22, 2011 9:03 am

BBC: New batch of emails, apparently from University of East Anglia unit involved in #Climategate affair, released online http://bbc.in/uJxd12

Dagobert
November 22, 2011 9:05 am

My gut feeling is that this is a fake. Let’s take it with a (large) grain of salt. I wouldn’t put stuff like this beyond people like that but… it doesn’t sound genuine, somehow.

November 22, 2011 9:06 am

Interesting that Mann (in the Guardian story at http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/22/fresh-hacked-climate-science-emails ) asserts that the emails were released by “agents doing the dirty bidding of the fossil fuel industry” when no one but those involved in the release knows the indentity of the leaker/whistleblower/hacker/sharer and the emails have not even yet been verified as genuine, even though he seems to suspect they are.
Even if we knew nothing of Michael Mann before, we would have to wonder about the reliability of a man who will confidently announce to a major newspaper the motives of a person or person whose identity is (presumably) unknown to him.

stephan
November 22, 2011 9:06 am

From the Guardian
“The emails appear to be genuine, but this has yet to be confirmed by the University of East Anglia. One of the emailers, the climate scientist Prof Michael Mann, has confirmed that he believes they are his messages. The lack of any emails post-dating the 2009 release suggests that they were obtained at the same time, but held back. Their release now suggests they are intended to cause maximum impact before the upcoming climate summit in Durban which starts on Monday”
There genuine enough…..

November 22, 2011 9:08 am

From a quick analysis the following words appear with the following frequency:
f**k – 22
c**p – 66
idiot – 21
fool – 39
dishonest – 51
Some are, or course, duplicates and others appear in a compound form, e.g. dishonestly.

November 22, 2011 9:08 am

Hiding the decline,
Hiding the decline,
We will go together,
Hiding the decline.
I’ve been recovering from a nasty bout of Pleurisy, and still feel bloody rough. I can’t tell you how much this has cheered me up. Have just sent richard.black@bbc.co.uk the following subject only email
‎”Jones: I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process”

A physicist
November 22, 2011 9:08 am

So far, there have been 113 comments on this particular Watts Up With That? post. If we mask-out those comments that amount to mere slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting, have there been any Watts Up With That? comments (so far) that contain content of interest to serious-minded mathematicians, scientists, engineers, and CEOs?
Out of 113 comments, has there been even one that is substantively skeptical?
If we assume that the present exclusive focus of Watts Up With That? upon slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting is sustained, then the brand of skepticism that is practiced here will never be disproved — how could it be? … because shouted slogans, cherry-picked data, and witch-hunts are none of them susceptible to disproof — yet it is true too that Watts Up With That?‘s peculiar brand of skepticism will exert no lasting influence upon America, upon conservatism, or upon the world.

Rich
November 22, 2011 9:08 am

Email 0071 From M. Mann I believe.
I pointed out to him that we certainly don’t know the GLOBAL mean temperature anomaly very well, and nobody has ever claimed we do (this is the question he asked everyone). There is very little information at all in the Southern Hemisphere on which to base any conclusion.
So I told him that of course the answer to that question is *no* and it would be surprising if anyone answered otherwise. But, as I proceeded to point out, that’s the wrong question. I pointed out that a far more sensible question is, “do we know the relative temperature anomaly for the NORTHERN HEMISPHERE to within that accuracy, and that we almost certainly do know that.
So is it global warming or hemispheric? Doesn’t he belittle the MWA down to it not being global?

November 22, 2011 9:08 am

Here is a personal favorite:
Tolleris:
The point is not that the scientists disagree among themselves but that they publicly proclaim from the rooftops that the science is settled and anyone who questions them is a bone-headed denier oil-lobby funded hooligan.

davidmhoffer
November 22, 2011 9:09 am

[FOI, temperature data]
Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we
get – and has to be well hidden.>>>
Haven’t read them all, but of the ones I have, that one is just priceless. It was my number one but has now dropped into a three way tie with :
I thought I’d play around with some randomly generated time-series and see if I
could ‘reconstruct’ northern hemisphere temperatures.
[…] The reconstructions clearly show a ‘hockey-stick’ trend. I guess this is
precisely the phenomenon that Macintyre has been going on about.>>>
and this gem:
[IPCC AR5 models]
So using the 20th c for tuning is just doing what some people have long
suspected us of doing […] and what the nonpublished diagram from NCAR showing
correlation between aerosol forcing and sensitivity also suggested.>>>
They’ve declared their own guilt repeatedly! I’m a fraction of the way through and there’s enough in here to drop kick these guys into jail!

November 22, 2011 9:09 am

says:
November 22, 2011 at 8:40 am
My mind works in mysterious ways. I wonder if the remaining emails are really damning, and the leaker just wants the principals to verify the pap stuff before lowering the boom.

EternalOptimist
November 22, 2011 9:10 am

FOIA2011, next time you’re up in Manchester, give us a shout, I’ll get you a beer in

Leon Brozyna
November 22, 2011 9:11 am

Psst … Dr, Mann … not a good idea to be using the old “out of context” pitch. Sets alarm bells to ringing, don’t you know.

Enneagram
November 22, 2011 9:13 am

“The Cause” and its “illuminati” will not fail: http://www.earthsummit2012.org/

mac
November 22, 2011 9:13 am

If this genuine then it is explosive.
1680.txt
date: Wed, 29 Aug 2007 12:03:05 -0400
from: “Michael E. Mann”
subject: Re: Something not to pass on
to: Phil Jones
Phil,
I would not respond to this. They will misrepresent and take out of
context anything you give them. This is a set up. They will certainly
publish this, and will ignore any evidence to the contrary that you
provide. s They are going after Wei-Chyung because he’s U.S. and there
is a higher threshold for establishing libel. Nonetheless, he should
consider filing a defamation lawsuit, perhaps you too.
I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an
investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his
thusfar unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.Perhaps the
same needs to be done w/ this Keenan guy.
I believe that the only way to stop these people is by exposing them and
discrediting them.
Do you mind if I send this on to Gavin Schmidt (w/ a request to respect
the confidentiality with which you have provided it) for his additional
advice/thoughts? He usually has thoughtful insights wiith respect to
such matters,
mike

November 22, 2011 9:14 am

mrsean2k says: November 22, 2011 at 7:26 am
@TheBigYinJames
And if it’s structured correctly, each archive could contain another encrypted archive to allow the mail to be released in tranches.

Right. Wikipedia on AES-256 says there are now approaches for it, but it’s all ahem cryptic to me.

November 22, 2011 9:14 am

Amy Ridenour says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:06 am
Interesting that Mann (in the Guardian story at http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/22/fresh-hacked-climate-science-emails ) asserts that the emails were released by “agents doing the dirty bidding of the fossil fuel industry” when no one but those …………………………….
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
WELL SAID!

Wil
November 22, 2011 9:14 am

To this point in time I see nothing those guys (Mann el al) can’t and won’t be able to explain away. There is no there THERE yet – so I urge you all to be skeptical – we only have POSSIBLE emails from these guys with no password. I ask why would anyone release this junk with no password to back up anything of value? This seems rather suspicious to me. You either have the goods or someone’s playing big time with us with INTERNET promises and we all know internet promises are worth squat until and unless the goods are delivered in full we have NOTHING! As the movie said – SHOW ME THE MONEY!

Harriet Harridan
November 22, 2011 9:14 am

Mark, says:
“Does anyone have the zip file? Either the link is bad or (I suspect) so many people have tried to download it that it crashed the server.”
Try the torrent: tinyurl.com/d7jxlt7

Enneagram
November 22, 2011 9:15 am

…Times of a “revelation from above” (Apo-kalypse)

DGH
November 22, 2011 9:15 am

0755
“FYI, the radio interview seemed to go well. I must say in fairness
that, considering the photographs of how not to observe temperature on
Anthony Watts’ blog, http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/weather_stations/
, Mr. Watts gave a well reasoned position. For example, when asked if
the stations with poor siting were removed from the analysis would it
show less warming, Mr. Watts said we won’t know until the analysis is
complete.”

ferd berple
November 22, 2011 9:16 am

UPDATE2: 8:45AM PST The Guardian has a story up be Leo Hickman, and this excerpt suggests they may be the real deal:
The Guardian article selectively edits README.txt to create a misleading impression about the motives of foia.org. The Guardian edits the text to remove any suggestion that $37 trillion might possibly be a death sentence for 2.5 billion of the world’s poor. Or for the elderly in the UK living in fuel poverty..
Here is the full version:
README.txt
/// FOIA 2011 — Background and Context ///
“Over 2.5 billion people live on less than $2 a day.”
“Every day nearly 16.000 children die from hunger and related causes.”
“One dollar can save a life” — the opposite must also be true.
“Poverty is a death sentence.”
“Nations must invest $37 trillion in energy technologies by 2030 to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels.”
Today’s decisions should be based on all the information we can get, not on hiding the decline.

the_Butcher
November 22, 2011 9:17 am

When will these charlatans get behind bars?

November 22, 2011 9:20 am

Wigley:
I heard that Zichichi has links with the Vatican. A number of other greenhouse
skeptics have extreme religious views.
Houghton [MetO, IPCC co-chair]
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
IMO helps explain the Pontifical Academy of Science Paper

commieBob
November 22, 2011 9:20 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am
If we mask-out from this Watts Up With That? post those claims that amount to:
(1) slogan-shouting,
(2) cherry-picking, and
(3) witch-hunting,
is there is anything left of Watts Up With That? but hollowed-out blank pages?

Here is the list of recent stories: * Climategate 2.0
* Hurricane Kenneth forms southwest of Baja
* Oyster crisis: Yale 360 eco-activist author Elizabeth Grossman wrong again about ocean acidification
* GMU on climate scientists: we are the 97%
* NOAA’s Susan Solomon, still pushing that 2 degrees in spite of limited options
* Carbon, on the uptake
* Don’t mock the Monck
* Duking It Out With Foreign Investors
* Shades of Foster Grant
* Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup
* The Odd Omission in IPCC’s Summary for Policy Makers for SREX on Extreme Weather and Climatic Events
* Santer’s “17 years needed for a sign of climate change” compared against the IPCC models
* The dehydration and bottled water debacle
* On the anniversary of Climategate, RealClimate’s Ray Pierrehumbert sings the CO2 blues, Chicago style
* Dr. James Hansen’s growing financial scandal, now over a million dollars of outside income
What I find there is mostly substantial. You may be right about the readers’ comments*. AFAICT, Watts mostly isn’t trying to present new science. His contribution there is the station siting stuff. That, in itself, is an important contribution to our understanding about the reliability of climate data.
What Watts purports to do on his mast head is: “Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology and recent news.” He does that. In fact, he does it well. If he is going to criticize science, he criticizes the science by presenting well supported logical arguments and data. That is not what I would characterize as ‘hollowing out’.
Your post is pretty much the pot calling the kettle black. If you were a real scientist, you would supply examples and statistics to back up your argument. Look at all the stories and see how many are ‘hollowed out’. Tell us why they are ‘hollowed out’. Use whatever criteria you choose but tell us what those criteria are so we can have a reasoned discussion. Your criteria seem to be:
(1) slogan-shouting,
(2) cherry-picking, and
(3) witch-hunting,
We aren’t going to let you get away with those unless you can tell us the difference between a substantial piece of news and ‘slogan-shouting’ for instance. You have to tell us what it is about a story that makes it ‘slogan-shouting’. The mere fact that you assert something does not make it so.
If you can’t supply the rudiments of a reasoned argument, we’ll think you are just another troll.
p.s. Perhaps you will deduce from my sig that I am not precisely the model of the rednecked neanderthal Republican you seem to think frequents these pages.
*That may not matter because blog comments are what they are. In fact, the comments on Wattsupwiththat seem to me to be somewhat more informed and reasoned on most blogs. YMMV.

November 22, 2011 9:21 am

I remain … sceptical.
It’ll take a while to analyse. Not having the resources of No Such Agency at one’s beck an call can be a major inconvenience.
Still worrisome that the MSM such as the Guardian consider emails sent between professionals in the conduct of their work to be “private”. They might be commercially-sensitive if they worked in private industry (but still not private – they belong to the corporation) but as the emails are ostensibly being produced by the use of public funds, the public has a right to see them; except for the bits that are private.

Richard deSousa
November 22, 2011 9:21 am

The pro AGW scientists and their useful idiotic bureaucrats should continue to host big climate meetings…. this way we can have more emails leaked to embarrass them.

Andrew
November 22, 2011 9:21 am

Maybe Mann released them.. he’s become a masochist hahahaha.

Kaboom
November 22, 2011 9:22 am

Saving more billions from being wasted on data manipulation via this release may indeed save lives – by reducing the inevitable cutbacks in budgets worldwide that will hit the poorest of the poor either domestic or abroad. I have an idea who to give that Peace Nobel Prize to after Gore and the IPCC will have to return theirs …

Chuck
November 22, 2011 9:23 am

The entire file needs to be released to put an end to the “taking out of context” charges by The Team.

Jean Parisot
November 22, 2011 9:25 am

dagobert – are you talking about the files or the AGW hypothesis?

sceptical
November 22, 2011 9:25 am

It will be interesting to see how partial quotes taken out of context will be spun this time. Last time, those who did the spinning were left with egg on their face after numerous investigations.

Scott
November 22, 2011 9:29 am

“Prof Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Centre at Penn State University,” — You are a grubby little man who will get his comeuppance.
I find it quite offensive that a ‘scientist’ takes such a political / activist approach. Using terms like ‘denier’ and his phraseology used to describe anyone who disagrees with him makes his agenda clear.

Jason
November 22, 2011 9:29 am

“My gut feeling is that this is a fake.”.
The reality is of course that its NOT fake. If it was why would Mann be on twitter right now saying how good it is the UEA CRA has already published a piece condemning the theft.
Mann has flicked through them already, that is obvious. If they were fake he would have said so.

Will Gray
November 22, 2011 9:29 am

Im wanting to write a cSi story/
Profile the person “FoIR”
Humanitarian does state urgency in energy poverty and the blaming of greenhouse gasses,
Next.
As just in time for durban/Copenhargen this time with a password- and scrit code that as yet is unchallengable.
He shows unique stealth and patience.
Q. guess his age-
Q. sexual orientation-
Q. who manifest a cause for a competative minority meaning has the person a reason to have a cultural dissconect from work?
Q. Push towards fair play-exceptionally consciencious neat orderly.
Etc.

Jostein
November 22, 2011 9:30 am

Here is another link to the FOIA2011.zip.
https://www.filesanywhere.com/fs/v.aspx?v=8a6e638f5f62757d6b9b

DirkH
November 22, 2011 9:31 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:08 am
“So far, there have been 113 comments on this particular Watts Up With That? post. If we mask-out those comments that amount to mere slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, ”
Ah, so pointing to an e-mail in which the climate “scientists” call for deletion of e-mails is cherry-picking because in the other 99% of e-mails they talk about something different. That’s a stupid argument, physicist. You’re stupid.

Taphonomic
November 22, 2011 9:32 am

The cause…
Yes, much has been done “For the Good of the Cause”. Solzhenitsyn lives.

highflight56433
November 22, 2011 9:35 am

A PHYSICIST… and everyone understands too that this slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting has become utterly irrelevant to the serious concerns of America’s mathematicians, scientists, engineers, and CEOs.
What is irrelevant about trillions of dollars we will have to absorb? Get a brain. WUWT is the messenger, not the crooks of Mann et al.

coldlynx
November 22, 2011 9:40 am

I guess this is “the original unadjusted data ” about the AGW fraud.

November 22, 2011 9:41 am

Minns/Tyndall Centre:
In my experience, global warming freezing is already a bit of a public
relations problem with the media
Kjellen:
I agree with Nick that climate change might be a better labelling than global
warming
Pierrehumbert:
What kind of circulation change could lock Europe into deadly summer heat waves
like that of last summer? That’s the sort of thing we need to think about.

Jason
November 22, 2011 9:41 am

“I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an
investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his
thusfar unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.Perhaps the
same needs to be done w/ this Keenan guy.
I believe that the only way to stop these people is by exposing them and
discrediting them.”
So Michael Mann is part of a Mafia then.

RockyRoad
November 22, 2011 9:42 am

I shall, in honor of a great mind and a terrific entrepreneur, quote the last words of Steve Jobs:
“Oh, wow! Oh, wow!”

Michael Larkin
November 22, 2011 9:44 am

Check out 0452.txt. It contains this bit:
> At 02:45 14/10/2009, Tom Wigley wrote:
>> Dear folks,
>>
>> You may be interesting in this snippet of information about
>> Pat Michaels. Perhaps the University of Wisconsin ought to
>> open up a public comment period to decide whether Pat Michaels,
>> PhD needs re-assessing?
>>
>> Michaels’ PhD was, I believe, supervised by Reid Bryson. It dealt
>> with statistical (regression-based) modeling of crop-climate
>> relationships. In his thesis, Michaels claims that his statistical
>> model showed that weather/climate variations could explain 95%
>> of the inter-annual variability in crop yields. Had this been
>> correct, it would have been a remarkable results. Certainly, it
>> was at odds with all previous studies of crop-climate relationships,
>> which generally showed that weather/climate could only explain about
>> 50% of inter-annual yield variability.
>>
>> How did result come about? The answer is simple. In Michaels’
>> regressions he included a trend term. This was at the time a common
>> way to account for the effects of changing technology on yield. It
>> turns out that the trend term accounts for 90% of the variability,
>> so that, in Michaels’ regressions, weather/climate explains just 5
>> of the remaining 10%. In other words, Michaels’ claim that
>> weather/climate explains 95% of the variability is completely
>> bogus.
>>
>> Apparently, none of Michaels’ thesis examiners noticed this. We
>> are left with wondering whether this was deliberate misrepresentation
>> by Michaels, or whether it was simply ignorance.

Jeff D
November 22, 2011 9:44 am

I want a large Popcorn with Extra Butter please!
Me thinks the backroom discussion topic at Durban is not going to be what was on the agenda.

November 22, 2011 9:47 am

What is the catch phrase for my next video? Is their anything as quotable as “Hide the Decline”?

Joe Horner
November 22, 2011 9:47 am

Seems like all copies of these are being torn down fast – none of the links I can find are still active and my ISP doesn’t like torrents 🙁

Elftone
November 22, 2011 9:50 am

I guess they had very little left to work with, having culled in the first round the emails that could most easily be taken out of context to try to make me look bad.
Mann, you will note in his statement in The Grauniad, manages to make it all about him again. He appears to have an ego the size of Belgium. And what, exactly, is “the cause”? Sounds reminiscent of the Crusades…

November 22, 2011 9:50 am

“A physicist” says November 22, 2011 at 9:08 am

Sorry fella, but at this point you’re being just plain booring
.

A physicist
November 22, 2011 9:53 am

I thought “commieBob’s” post (above) was one of the most sensible on this whole thread … not a trace of slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, or witch-hunting in it.
Life being too short to waste on slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, or witch-hunting, I’ve taken to reading more-and-more from climate-change analyses written by CEOs and/or military strategists and/or folks who work in nature (farmers, fishers, and hunters) … because these folks too have no time for slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, or witch-hunting.
So that’s my answer to commieBob’s question “Use whatever criteria you choose but tell us what those criteria are so we can have a reasoned discussion.”
It seems to me that conservative groups like Republicans for Environmental Protection (and other groups like the Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership) called it right way back in the early 1990s, and since then the accelerating trend among CEOs, military strategists, farmers, fishers and hunters has been to embrace the REP’s foresighted science-driven point-of-view.
Skepticism of course is valuable: when that skepticism is driven by solid physical theory and high-quality data analysis — and not driven by cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting. Here on Watt’s Up With That, especially in recent months, there’s getting to be far too little of the former, and far too much of the latter.
That’s the practical reason why CEOs, military strategists, farmers, fishers, and hunters, not to mention most mathematicians, scientists, and engineers, are rejecting the peculiar brand of skepticism that is increasingly practiced here on Watt’s Up With That.

wmsc
November 22, 2011 9:54 am

The file on the Russian site is 404’d.

November 22, 2011 9:54 am

Henry@a physicist
Why don’t you actually talke the time to read the comments?
Henry
I can confirm that my average increase in the mean temps on the SH is exactly 0.000 degrees C /annum over the past 4 decades. In the NH it is different as more heat is trapped there by the blooming earth, spurting more green (due to the increase in max. temps and carbon dioxide)
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/more-carbon-dioxide-is-ok-ok

the_Butcher
November 22, 2011 9:54 am

@elmer,
yes, “the cause”

More Soylent Green!
November 22, 2011 9:56 am

So, will Mann stop his legal action to halt the release of his emails now?

James Sexton
November 22, 2011 9:56 am

I haven’t seen this one posted yet, so ……..

Bradley:
I’m sure you agree–the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should
never have been published.
I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year
“reconstruction”.
Osborn:
Because how can we be critical of Crowley for throwing out 40-years in the
middle of his calibration, when we’re throwing out all post-1960 data ‘cos the
MXD has a non-temperature signal in it, and also all pre-1881 or pre-1871 data
‘cos the temperature data may have a non-temperature signal in it!

Esper:
Now, you Keith complain about the way we introduced our result, while saying it
is an important one. […] the IPCC curve needs to be improved according to
missing long-term declining trends/signals, which were removed (by
dendrochronologists!) before Mann merged the local records together. So, why
don’t you want to let the result into science?
Cook:
I am afraid that Mike is defending something that increasingly can not be
defended. He is investing too much personal stuff in this and not letting the
science move ahead.

Jeff
November 22, 2011 9:58 am

2203
from: “Keiller, Donald”
subject: Yamal and paleoclimatology
to: <K BRIFFA
As an environmental plant physiologist, I have followed the long debate
starting with Mann et al (1998) and through to Kaufman et al (2009).
As time has progressed I have found myself more concerned with the whole
scientific basis of dendroclimatology. In particular;
1) The appropriateness of the statistical analyses employed
2) The reliance on the same small datasets in these multiple studies
3) The concept of "teleconnection" by which certain trees respond to the
"Global Temperature Field", rather than local climate
4) The assumption that tree ring width and density are related to temperature
in a linear manner.
Whilst I would not describe myself as an expert statistician, I do use
inferential statistics routinely for both research and teaching and find
difficulty in understanding the statistical rationale in these papers.
As a plant physiologist I can say without hesitation that points 3 and 4 do
not agree with the accepted science.

November 22, 2011 9:59 am

Best headline ever!

jaypan
November 22, 2011 9:59 am

This all is so telling. A small group, impressed by their own importance, acts in the interest of a “cause”. Hiding, tricking, deceiving, pushing … everything included, going from science to crime, but almost nobody of them really cares.
Politicians, as they have to save other things than climate now, should realize finally how they are being played like puppets on a string. Ridiculous, but not funny at all. As the intro text rightfully reminds everybody: Starving children are murdered this way by a green mafia.

Robert of Ottawa
November 22, 2011 10:02 am

I like Phil Jones admitting he deleted his e-mails and keeps printed copies at home. Where’s the Norwich plod when you need them!

More Soylent Green!
November 22, 2011 10:04 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am
If we mask-out from this Watts Up With That? post those claims that amount to:
(1) slogan-shouting,
(2) cherry-picking, and
(3) witch-hunting,
is there is anything left of Watts Up With That? but hollowed-out blank pages?
That hollowing-out is the common-sense reason why the perception of a “Conservative War on Science” is becoming the consensus view of America’s mathematicians, scientists, and engineers … and even more seriously for all who hope that American conservatism has any future, is becoming the consensus view too of America’s serious-minded CEOs.
Fortunately, those hollowed-out brands of conservatism that are grounded in slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting are unlikely to survive the coming decade — and will not deserve to survive. Whereas the robust brand of conservatism espoused (for example) by J. Wayne Leonard, Chairman and CEO of the Entergy Corporation, in his letter “Entergy and the Environment” (Google it!) has excellent changes to provide solid foundations for 21st century American conservatism.
Everyone understands that slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting is going to continue unceasingly here on Watts Up With That and other ideology-first sites (both far-left and far-right) … and everyone understands too that this slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting has become utterly irrelevant to the serious concerns of America’s mathematicians, scientists, engineers, and CEOs.

Personally, I’m waging a war for science. I support the scientific method and seek open, fair and honest debate. That’s why I’m a skeptic.
I know science is not performed by consensus or proclamation. I know the truth of any scientific question can never be determined when one side attempts to block honest and fair inquiry. I know computer models do not output facts nor do computer models output data.
I know the difference between science and activism. That is why I’m a skeptic.

UK dissenter
November 22, 2011 10:04 am

I am Michael Mann, as pure as the driven snow. A disinterested, objective scientist only concerned to discover the truth. So it must be a different Michael Mann who wrote:
“3115 It would help the cause to be able to refer to that reconstruction …”
and
“0810 I don’t know what she (Judith Curry) think’s she’s doing, but its not helping the cause”
and, on 29th August 2007 to Phil Jones (CRU, East Anglia University, England),
“I (Mann) have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his thus far unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests”
And the response of the second Michael Mann, to the Guardian today (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/22/fresh-hacked-climate-science-emails) is textbook paranoia. He describes the person/people who released the latest batch of CRU emails as:
“agents doing the dirty bidding of the fossil fuel industry know they can’t contest the fundamental science of human-caused climate change. So they have instead turned to smear, innuendo, criminal hacking of websites, and leaking out-of-context snippets of personal emails in their effort to try to confuse the public about the science and thereby forestall any action to combat this critical threat. Its right out of the tried-and-true playbook of climate change denial.”
I think the purely scientific Michael Mann needs to contact his paranoid doppelganger, and ask him to calm down, and get some treatment. He’s clearly not well.

Jeremy
November 22, 2011 10:04 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:08 am
If we assume that the present exclusive focus of Watts Up With That? upon slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting is sustained, then the brand of skepticism that is practiced here will never be disproved…

You know how I know you’re not a physicist? You display no curiosity at all.
A physicist is a generally a person who demonstrates curiosity and does not cringe at learning something new, regardless of subject matter. I know this, I am one and I’ve spent lots of time around them. Go find a physicist and talk to them about sports, they’ll be interested. Go talk to them about art, they’ll be interested. Go talk to them about anything, they’ll generally find something of interest in it. They are true generalists that could find something interesting or something worthy of skeptical inquiry from anything in existence.
As far as “brand of skepticism”… “never be disproved”… what on earth are you talking about? Skepticism is defined as a state of mind, how can you disprove a state of mind?
You are displaying yourself as little more than a blogosphere troll. It is you who is repeating yourself accusing others of things they have not done. This thread is not a scientific thread, it is a thread about a leak of e-mails from scientists who have been abusing their positions. Coming onto this thread and trying to demonstrate a lack of scientific rigor is like jumping into a congressional debate and demanding people start kissing and hugging.

Dave N
November 22, 2011 10:08 am

From the snippets in this post, I don’t see anything “damning”. Arrogance, yes, however that’s hardly damning; just unbecoming of those purporting to be engaged in science.

Bill Thomson
November 22, 2011 10:08 am

Does this show the foibles of some climate scientists?

Jeff
November 22, 2011 10:09 am

2211 has a long discussion by Mann on M&M’s critique of his reconstruction

Rod Everson
November 22, 2011 10:09 am

In my opinion, first prize so far should go to this one:
” Haimberger:
It is interesting to see the lower tropospheric warming minimum in the tropics
in all three plots, which I cannot explain. I believe it is spurious but it is
remarkably robust against my adjustment efforts.”
Hmmm…I wonder how many of the plots that are supportive of his position get a similar level of scrutiny? Conclusion (belief) first, evidence (adjusted data) to be manufactured later?

TheGoodLocust
November 22, 2011 10:10 am

“Chuck says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:23 am
The entire file needs to be released to put an end to the “taking out of context” charges by The Team.”
No, they’ll always say it was “out of context.” This is a very typical tactic since their defenders will believe them because they want to believe them.
For example, Obama’s pastor preached that white people invented HIV to kill blacks. The response? It was out of context.
And that worked until the pastor opened his nutty mouth again – then he just disowned him.
That’s why I think the ultimate defense of this, assuming these turn out to be unaltered/true, is that they’ll simply disown Mann and Friends, while still claiming the “vast majority of climate scientists” agree with AGW.

Latitude
November 22, 2011 10:11 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:53 am
That’s the practical reason why CEOs, military strategists, farmers, fishers, and hunters, not to mention most mathematicians, scientists, and engineers, are rejecting the peculiar brand of skepticism that is increasingly practiced here on Watt’s Up With That.
===========================
You are a hoot!
…the whole time you are claiming that you are jumping to a conclusion that “move along, there’s nothing to see here”
Take a good dose of your own hypocritical advise…..and wait and see
=====
Overpeck:
I agree w/ Susan [Solomon] that we should try to put more in the bullet about
“Subsequent evidence” […] Need to convince readers that there really has been
an increase in knowledge – more evidence. What is it?
======
Jones:
I too don’t see why the schemes should be symmetrical. The temperature ones
certainly will not as we’re choosing the periods to show warming.
=======
…and just to lighten the mood
Mann:
the important thing is to make sure they’re loosing (sic) the PR battle. That’s what
the site [Real Climate] is about.

Jeff
November 22, 2011 10:11 am

2212, Phil Jones: “Don’t put too much faith in the models”
though not clear to me which models he is discussing, perhaps someone more familiar with this stuff can help

Jeff
November 22, 2011 10:13 am

2213
“I happen to agree with him and I actually think our statement is too
strong. It almost seems that we are suggesting physical models should be
thought of as empirical ones, which, despite the tuning, I think is an
overstatement. ”
Empirical models, you know, as opposed to made up projections

Spector
November 22, 2011 10:13 am

RE: the_Butcher: (November 22, 2011 at 9:17 am)
“When will these charlatans get behind bars?”
That may prove difficult for self-elected ‘heroes’ of the green revolution who honestly believed they were acting for the good of all mankind. Only those who can be proved to have knowingly corrupted science for personal gain run that risk. Note that all juries are likely to include people sympathetic to the ideals of the green revolution.

More Soylent Green!
November 22, 2011 10:14 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am
… Whereas the robust brand of conservatism espoused (for example) by J. Wayne Leonard, Chairman and CEO of the Entergy Corporation, in his letter “Entergy and the Environment”

Since you didn’t, I’ll provide the link: http://www.entergy.com/our_community/environment/ceo_letter.aspx
There is nothing in the letter you reference that has anything to do with conservatism. Do you mistaken believe that because Mr. Leonard is CEO of a corporation, that he’s a conservative?
Having read the letter in question and some other pages on the site, I found nothing there that is not a rehashing of the IPCC “consensus view” of climate change, including the call for various federal programs. There is no science there at all.
Either you’re a poor excuse for a physicist or just another troll. You’re not even clever enough to direct people to a website that supports your contentions.

LamontT
November 22, 2011 10:14 am

It’s sad “a physicist”, really apparently nothing more than a propagandist, doesn’t offer any actual arguments for her position but instead does nothing but spout empty psychobabble rhetoric that means nothing as if if were somehow a profound criticism.
Really Miz “a propagandist” needs to present coherent logical arguments not just the empty disenfranchised language that they have used for this is the practical reason why CEO’s, military strategists, farmers, fishers, and hunters not to mention most mathematicians, scientist, and engineers are rejecting the peculiar brand of religion that states that man is causing catastrophic climate damage and instead embracing the skepticism that is seen in much of the world.

A Lovell
November 22, 2011 10:15 am

I can remember reading an interview with Phil Jones. It was when he came out of hiding after the first climategate. In it, he said he was just ‘waiting for the other shoe to drop’.
I have often wondered since then exactly what he meant. I guess this is it!
PS ‘A physicist’……….do put a sock in it. You sound inebriated.

November 22, 2011 10:17 am

I think he [Chris Landsea] has behaved irresponsibly and ought to be fired by NOAA for not have an open enough mind to even consider that climate change might be affecting hurricanes.” – Kevin Trenberth

More Soylent Green!
November 22, 2011 10:18 am

Was the file created with 7zip? Just Google 7 zip password cracker and go from there. Be sure to carefully check all downloads for malware@

November 22, 2011 10:18 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:53 am
I thought “commieBob’s” post (above) was one of the most sensible on this whole thread … not a trace of slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, or witch-hunting in it. blah, blah, blah..
Wordy troll is troll.

Stephen Richards
November 22, 2011 10:19 am

My guess is that this person is very patient and totally dedicated to his cause. Listen up Warming loonies. I suspect that he has sorted these mails into good, very good and EXPLOSIVE!! Bang. You stop lying or the next load is going to go boom. he he he !!!

James Sexton
November 22, 2011 10:20 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:53 am
That’s the practical reason why CEOs, military strategists, farmers, fishers, and hunters, not to mention most mathematicians, scientists, and engineers, are rejecting the peculiar brand of skepticism that is increasingly practiced here on Watt’s Up With That.
==============================================================
Interesting….. I live in a decidedly conservative part of the country, where farmers, fishers, and hunters appear in this location. I’m not sure which of those you think are rejecting this “brand of skepticism”, but I think your a bit off. While its been a while since I personally spoke to any military strategists, and CEO’s but the dynamics are completely different. But, all of that aside, what do you say about this?
Blockquote>Bradley:
I’m sure you agree–the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should
never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year
“reconstruction”.
Osborn:
Because how can we be critical of Crowley for throwing out 40-years in the
middle of his calibration, when we’re throwing out all post-1960 data ‘cos the
MXD has a non-temperature signal in it, and also all pre-1881 or pre-1871 data
‘cos the temperature data may have a non-temperature signal in it!
Esper:
Now, you Keith complain about the way we introduced our result, while saying it
is an important one. […] the IPCC curve needs to be improved according to
missing long-term declining trends/signals, which were removed (by
dendrochronologists!) before Mann merged the local records together. So, why
don’t you want to let the result into science?
Cook:
I am afraid that Mike is defending something that increasingly can not be
defended. He is investing too much personal stuff in this and not letting the
science move ahead.

November 22, 2011 10:21 am

@the_Butcher says:
yes, “the cause”
I like it.. I like it a lot

Some European
November 22, 2011 10:21 am

Wow! That’s spectacular!
I will stop believing in the religion of Al Gore now.
Such amazing revelations!
Give me a break! Give the world a break! Get a life!
REPLY: get a clue Arne

LamontT
November 22, 2011 10:22 am

Actually A Lovell the psychobabble from “a physicist” sounds very much like the random posts you can get from one of the various rant generators online. This particular one is odd and seems designed to generate fake psychobabble nonsense for the troll that sounds profound but doesn’t actually mean anything. Probably set it a few keywords and away it goes generating the text that is then posted. Note the uniformity and emptiness of all of the posts there is no soul in any of them which tends to lend credence to the thought that they are just random computer generated babble.

November 22, 2011 10:24 am

A physicist:
The onus is not on scientific skeptics to prove a negative. The onus is entirely on the alarmist crowd to show convincingly, per the scientific method, that a rise in CO2 will cause runaway global warming and climate disruption.
They have failed spectacularly. The planet itself is falsifying their wild-eyed predictions of doom. You’re just getting folks stirred up here by blaming skeptics for being skeptical of the repeatedly failed CAGW predictions. We have nothing to prove; it is the alarmist crowd that must defend their demonization of “carbon”, and so far they have completely failed.

Sean Peake
November 22, 2011 10:24 am

I wonder if the protected emails are the ones that Phil Jones et al “never” deleted?

Steve In S.C.
November 22, 2011 10:26 am

Stock tip of the day:
ConAgra Foods, Inc. Common Stoc(NYSE: CAG )
providers of ActII and Orville Redenbacher brands of popcorn.

Jeff
November 22, 2011 10:27 am

2226, Phil Jones suggests going “over the top” to encourage acceptance at Nature:
Dave,
Rather than go through the doc file, I’ll make a few points directly by email.
1. I’ll reckon you’ll have to go over the top to get Nature to send this out for
review.
One way of doing this would be to add in some quick analyses of the
residual global mean series. for recent years. Only a few sentences.
Basically to show that years like 2005 and others in the period 2002-2007 are
after extraction warmer than 1998. Maybe also over 1997/8 to 2007 show
the trend. I know this is somewhat silly, but there is a lot of rubbish on
web sites about global warming stopping. Maybe just rank the top ten
years in the residual series. This might give it more appeal, but not detract
from the main 1945 message.

A Lovell
November 22, 2011 10:32 am

LamontT says:
November 22, 2011 at 10:22 am
Thanks for that information. It was the odd, meaningless babble that led me to think he was under the influence of something. Even drunks have a soul!!

November 22, 2011 10:35 am

So, Dr mann, if the emails seem to be “taken out of context”, then maybe you’d be willing to provide the entire email so we can see the full statements.
That is, if you haven’t deleted them already…

SunderlandSteve
November 22, 2011 10:35 am

And so there we have it, science, from the teams’ point of veiw is not about finding the truth, its all about “THE CAUSE”.
How unremittingly pathetic!

Stephen Richards
November 22, 2011 10:35 am

Dagobert says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:05 am
My gut feeling is that this is a fake. Let’s take it with a (large) grain of salt. I wouldn’t put stuff like this beyond people like that but… it doesn’t sound genuine, somehow.
DAGOBERT is a cartoon character in france. Need I say more!!

November 22, 2011 10:36 am

As with last time, here is a free program to format and make the emails easier to read,
GetDiz

A physicist
November 22, 2011 10:38 am

James Sexton asks:

That’s the practical reason why CEOs, military strategists, farmers, fishers, and hunters, not to mention most mathematicians, scientists, and engineers, are rejecting the peculiar brand of skepticism that is increasingly practiced here on Watt’s Up With That.

Interesting….. I live in a decidedly conservative part of the country, where farmers, fishers, and hunters appear in this location. I’m not sure which of those you think are rejecting this “brand of skepticism.”

That would be the alliance of fishers and hunters at “Seasons End” whose members include:
• Ducks Unlimited
• Trout Unlimited
• BASS/ESPN Outdoors
• Izaak Walton League of America
• Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies
• Coastal Conservation Association
• American Sportfishing Association
• Pheasants Forever
• Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership
• Wildlife Management Institute
• Delta Waterfowl
• Boone and Crockett Club
Prominent non-skeptic farming organizations include 4H and FFA (if you’re from a farm-family, you won’t have to ask what those are).
The plain fact is, almost every serious professional organization nowadays is rejecting those brands of climate-change skepticism that express themselves mainly in cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting.
Good. 🙂

John
November 22, 2011 10:38 am

YAWNNNN.

Frank K.
November 22, 2011 10:39 am

It is very interesting to see truckloads of trolls showing up here to defend “the cause” [LOL!].
(I must give the trolls their due, however. They recognize these new climategate e-mails as yet another torpedo ripping into the hull of the sinking S.S. GlobalWarming…)

AdderW
November 22, 2011 10:40 am

Jones:
Basic problem is that all models are wrong – not got enough middle and low
level clouds.

Hilarious

AdderW
November 22, 2011 10:41 am

Jones:
GKSS is just one model and it is a model, so there is no need for it to be
correct.

Hah, even better !

cui bono
November 22, 2011 10:41 am

In other news today:
“180 pensioners died every day as a result of cold conditions during the 2010-11 winter months in England and Wales. The annual ‘Excess winter mortality’ report found that an estimated 21,800 people over the age of 65 died as a result of adverse conditions, on top of the average mortality rate for the same period of time (4 months from December 2010 to March 2011). Over-65s accounted for 84% of the overall 25,700 ‘excess’ deaths during the winter months.”
These liars think they’re saints. My 97 year old mother has dementia and I care for her in my house. That means keeping her warm, and not dreading bills going through the roof because we’ve been stuck with useless ugly windmills and stupid solar panels.
They aren’t saints and perhaps a new special circle of hell could be constructed for them. One where it’s very, very COLD.
Meanwhile, for grim humour, check out Trenberth’s ‘song’ on the IPCCs winning the Nobel prize with Al Gore. Yeesh!

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 10:41 am

HenryP says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:42 am
Well, we all knew they were fooling us.
Despite COP 17 being held here, I am finding the knowledge on the subject at the universities here in South Africa so appalling ……..
There are no papers and there has not been any research here on the subject of man induced global warming. So the whole world is relying on these fraudsters like Mann.
In the meantime I have done my own research………

___________________
HenerP, I know you have a blog but how about either writing an article for WUWT or cross posting some of your articles here I read the one you used to answer R Gates with and I had not seen that point of view before.

Ray
November 22, 2011 10:42 am

It looks like the Climategate email poster is using the old 1-2-3-YOU’RRRRRE OUT!

November 22, 2011 10:42 am

Can you post the IP address or full web server logs? I’d like to see if the hacker was using proxies like last time:
http://erratasec.blogspot.com/2009/11/climate-hack-used-open-proxies.html

strawbale
November 22, 2011 10:48 am

date: Tue, 05 Dec 2006 15:40:47 +0000
from: Phil Jones
subject: Dave – in confidence
to: k.briffa@xxxx
Keith,
Chris was pretty positive with Dave. Dave is going to make a business
case for the MSc with additional modules. Try and have a look
through it later this week. Chris has given Dave a few ideas
for the plan. There is likely to be a demand for more people
to get Climate Change training in the future. If Chris is successful it
might be
possible to get Dave a Senior Lecturer post. He won’t get a Reader
though as he’s not got the publications for the RAE.
Any post would have to be advertised and it may not all be able to
be done in time for the end of March.
You could raise the issue at the next Strategy Comm. which
Chris says you’ll have next week.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 xxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@xxx
NR4 7TJ
UK

strawbale
November 22, 2011 10:55 am

emails in document 0333 are worth a read for entertainment. Too long to post here but gives an insight into behind the scenes at Realclimate.

November 22, 2011 10:56 am

Looks like the FOIA.org link is broken?

strawbale
November 22, 2011 10:56 am

Sorry, correction, that should be document 0330, not 0333.

G. Karst
November 22, 2011 10:57 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:53 am
CEOs, military strategists, farmers, fishers, and hunters
I (and others) have performed these roles (and more) through more years than I want to contemplate, as well as the duties of a physicist. Your world is not THE world. GK

November 22, 2011 10:58 am

LamontT says November 22, 2011 at 10:14 am
It’s sad “a physicist”, really apparently nothing more than a propagandist, doesn’t offer any actual arguments for her position but instead does nothing but spout empty psychobabble rhetoric that means nothing …

Perhaps an exemplification of the Peter Principle? Or maybe the final product of ‘state schooling’ from K through to BS, MS or PhD?
I would like to see, purely from an entertainment perspective, a good line of argumentation put forwards, but, alas, not forthcoming from this ‘specimen’ …
.

strawbale
November 22, 2011 10:59 am

Jeez what have I been smoking tonight! Correction again, the correct document IS 0333!
Apologies

Mike
November 22, 2011 10:59 am

As a fisher, hunter, farmer, and CEO, I must be one of those who was overlooked by a “Physicist” (heh) during his less than extensive survey. The house of cards is collapsing, and I am sure you and yours are in a panic. My doubts harken back to my early training in the method where an old prof inculcated the most basic principles of scientific inquiry- skepticism itself. The moment those associated with the AGW enterprise (and it is an enterprise) began to viciously attack those who presented any data or theory counter to the narrative, I knew. These emails, part 1 and 2 prove one thing for certain. These people committed to “the cause”, regardless of their credentials, are not scientists.

Pete in Cumbria UK
November 22, 2011 11:02 am

am I alone in thinking that our ‘physicist’ friend is being just a bit naive.
He talks about reading what CEOs, militarists etc etc (incl. farmers (that’s me)) are saying about catastrophic climate change and apparently how they all believe it to be true.
No.
What is true is that our elected leaders believe it to be true and it is their actions that all these people are talking about- especially that huge and very dangerous thing that will impact on everyone – Carbon Tax. That is the catastrophe, not the climate.
And if, 37 trillion is going to be spent, who in their right mind would not be hankering after a share of that – not at all of course thinking of anybody/thing called Solyndra for example.
Is it yet another sad reflection of our education systems that modern physicists can be so ‘green’ in every sense of the word?

Kay
November 22, 2011 11:02 am

@ “sceptical says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:25 am
[quote]It will be interesting to see how partial quotes taken out of context will be spun this time. Last time, those who did the spinning were left with egg on their face after numerous investigations.[/quote]
Oh, you mean like how Penn State handled its knowledge of a child predator in their midst? If they managed to whitewash that for 33 years, whitewashing a little climate investigation would be a piece of cake.

Venkman
November 22, 2011 11:04 am

2368
Dave,
Do I understand it correctly – if he doesn’t pay the £10 we don’t have to respond?
With the earlier FOI requests re David Holland, I wasted a part of a day deleting
numerous emails and exchanges with almost all the skeptics. So I have
virtually nothing. I even deleted the email that I inadvertently sent.
There might be some bits of pieces of paper, but I’m not wasting my time
going through these.
Cheers
Phil

Spector
November 22, 2011 11:04 am

RE: Smokey: (November 22, 2011 at 10:24 am)
“The onus is entirely on the alarmist crowd to show convincingly, per the scientific method, that a rise in CO2 will cause runaway global warming and climate disruption.”
That is exactly the condition that Fear-Forced (Post-Normal) Science is meant to lay aside, as the presumed consequences of inaction are supposed to be so dire that there is no time to debate the issue.

Jackal
November 22, 2011 11:05 am

Thanks, Prof. Mann for screwing more people from Penn State than Jerry Sandusky.

November 22, 2011 11:06 am

Henry@Gail Combs
I assume you are referring to the fact that I said that
“a correlation can be picked up if you compare the results in my tables with that of the leaf area index, shown in the world chart below:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/the-earths-biosphere-is-booming-data-suggests-that-co2-is-the-cause-part-2/
In the red areas, which shows the area on earth where life is blooming and where it is getting greener, you will note from the results in my tables that the increase in maxima is picked up and trapped by the increasing vegetation as exhibited by higher means and minima.. In the blue ares, where substantial de-forestation has been going on, you will find mean temperatures staying largely unchanged or even declining, even though maxima are rising”.
However, I am still working on that,
I think I do need to do more statistical analyses of weather stations before I can make an historical claim.
This is just a “hobby” and I don’t have a lot of time for it.
I sure wish I had the universities here working with me (especially the stats classes) instead of being so completely naive and pathetic.

Flask
November 22, 2011 11:08 am

“farmers, fishers, and hunters, not to mention most mathematicians, scientists, and engineers”
“fishers”
That tells me that A physicist is more likely “A journOlist”, probably in the employ of the CBC. But who knows, maybe they use that stupid emasculated name for fishermen in certain hyperpolitica parts of the USA, too.
LOL

November 22, 2011 11:08 am

My guess is that “a physicist” is that well known heavyweight, Scott Mandia. Who else would name himself in such a pretentious manner.

Martin Brumby
November 22, 2011 11:13 am

@A physicist says: November 22, 2011 at 10:38 am
“The plain fact is, almost every serious professional organization nowadays is rejecting those brands of climate-change skepticism that express themselves mainly in cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting.”
I wouldn’t expect a cowardly, anonymous troll to even recognise a “serious professional organization” if one was to bite his ass. And your boring and tendentious posts prove the point.
Whilst you clearly excite yourself with your endlessly repeated “cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting.” chant, most rational people are more concerned about the dogma, incompetence, greed & malice which has been the hallmark of the Thermogeddonists for years and which is abundently here on display in the latest Climategate 2 emails. This concern is greatly amplified by being mindful of the Trillion Dollar expenditure on non-solutions to the CO2 non-problem.
The outcome?
Just read
@cui bono says: November 22, 2011 at 10:41 am.
And contemplate for once in your selfish, miserable little life, the effects of the cAGW scam on the poor and dispossessed in countries far poorer than the UK. The education, clean water & medicine that a tiny fraction of “decarbonisation” would pay for. The destruction of hope. And (with obvious implications for future peace and stability) the claim that their misfortune is down to the First World’s unpaid “Carbon Debt”.

Nik
November 22, 2011 11:15 am

Exceptions to the hearsay rule include “informal admissions” and evidence that tends to show a state of mind. This is what these emails do.
The timing is intriguing. Just as the first block was released a few days before the Copenhagen shindig, these predate the Durban upcoming fiasco.
There is another important factor. We are in the midst of a growing global financial crisis. The crisis will affect both the appetite for funding and policies which might affect the exit from financial stagnation. There are not many economists around who in these circumstances would support “green economies” as a serious means of getting back on the right economic track.
Because of the above this second batch of emails will have a much harder impact than the first. Which shows that the person(s) doing the leaking have a strategic mind.
Nik

AdderW
November 22, 2011 11:15 am

Any Josh cartoons on the horizon ? 🙂

SteveSadlov
November 22, 2011 11:17 am

Let us raise our fists and red flags … for THE CAUSE!!!!!

strawbale
November 22, 2011 11:17 am

0339- Discusses Mann and his bristle cones + McIntyre

Barbara Munsey
November 22, 2011 11:18 am

In some quarters I have seen it offered that the reason the President of Penn State was sacked in the pedophilia scandal is because the non-investigation into something that could have jeopardized a revenue stream is a pattern there (at the university under his watch)—because of the non-investigation into Mann, and other more minor issues.
If so, while it may not gain massive “media” attention, it may gain some university attention.
Write to the board of governors; they have the sacking power, and with fewer places to hide, Mann will be easier to corner, won’t he?

Jean Parisot
November 22, 2011 11:18 am

2333 — “This is for YOURS EYES ONLY. Delete after reading – please !” Ooops

Stephen Wilde
November 22, 2011 11:18 am

Scientists welcome sceptical viewpoints because such viewpoints give them an opportunity to show why their hypothesis is to be preferred.
It didn’t happen quite like that did it?

John-X
November 22, 2011 11:20 am

Is the “perpetrator” (as described by the crack [smoking?] Norfolk police) really saying we need to find USD37,000,000,ooo,000 to spend on bird choppers, solar panels, lunar panels, perpetual motion machines, and other “sustainable” energy, so we can “stabilize” (American spelling) our emmissions at “sustainable levels” (whatever that means) ???
Great. No problem.
Someone please call China and tell them we need to borrow enough for 74,000 more Solyndras.
We’ll pay them back with, um, stabilised, …sustainable, …um, levels. Of something.

Jeff
November 22, 2011 11:24 am

From Raymond Bradley to Keith Briffa (2560)
re Mike’s last missive, I have responded to Julie directly. Forget about
it…too much acrimony on all of this. One day, (perhaps) Mike will grow
up…
Ray

Alan
November 22, 2011 11:28 am

One of my favorites (and note, put it in context with Mann’s angry reaction reported today in the media):
Cook:
I am afraid that Mike is defending something that increasingly can not be
defended. He is investing too much personal stuff in this and not letting the
science move ahead

More Soylent Green!
November 22, 2011 11:28 am

@A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 10:38 am
You’re obvious new to this trolling thing, aren’t you?
Consensus does not determine science, nor does appeal to authority. I find the progressive mind, like that of children, to be very susceptible to peer-pressure. That’s why progressives have such uniformity of opinion and so little original thought. Conformity is very important to progressives and they inhabit a shame sub-culture.
Me, I’m from Missouri (which a often pronounce as Mizzura, just to annoy my spouse) and you have to show me. Give me some real facts.

Jeff
November 22, 2011 11:28 am

2563, from Barrie Pitock
“>(b) Ensure that such misleading papers do not continue to appear in the
>offending journals by getting proper scientific standards applied to
>refereeing and editing. Whether that is done publicly or privately may not
>matter so much, as long as it happens. It could be through boycotting the
>journals, but that might leave them even freer to promulgate misinformation.
>To my mind that is not as good as getting the offending editors removed and
>proper processes in place. Pressure or ultimatums to the publishers might
>work, or concerted lobbying by other co-editors or leading authors.
>(c) A journalistic expose of the unscientific practices might work and
>embarass the sceptics/industry lobbies (if they are capable of being
>embarassed) e.g., through a reliable lead reporter for Science or Nature.
>Offending editors could be labelled as “rogue editors”, in line with current
>international practice? Or is that defamatory?”

Stephen Wilde
November 22, 2011 11:29 am

In light of all this it is clearly time to rapidly extract as much fossil fuel as we need in order to educate and empower the world so that every nation reaches the stage where its population voluntarily limits its fertility as happens and has happened in every nation that has achieved sufficient wealth, education and freedom.
Then the world will all the sooner reach peak population and begin a population decline towards long term sustainability with the wealth derived from fossil fuels (or any genuinely economic alternative) providing a buffer against the economic effects of a global population contraction.
That is the way forward. Not a Luddite type regression to the politics and economics of the Middle Ages when life for all was nasty brutish and short.
Not only do wealthy, free and educated nations limit their fertility, they also care for the environment.
The so called ’cause’ is evil incarnate.

TomRude
November 22, 2011 11:32 am

Funny how the ramping up number of Op-ed and alarmist news articles by Seth Borenstein, immediately peddled around the globe by the MSM is journalism, information … LOL

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 11:32 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am
….. is there is anything left of Watts Up With That? but hollowed-out blank pages?
That hollowing-out is the common-sense reason why the perception of a “Conservative War on Science” is becoming the consensus view of America’s mathematicians, scientists, and engineers…..
__________________________
Give it a break. The days when a scientist could take on the mantel of a “priest” are now long gone. At this point after all the fecal material that has hit the news lately I would not even want to admit I was a chemist!
Especially after “The FDA has found “widespread falsification” and “manipulation of equilibration samples” at Cetero research from 2005 to 2010.” (Cetero is based only a couple towns over. ) Followed by Diederik Stapel: “A well known Dutch psychologist falsified data in dozens of studies in one of the biggest cases of scientific fraud on record, an investigative committee has found.”
If Scientists do not get their act together and clean house SOON they are going to find the reputation of science very badly tarnished. That is the true tragedy of this whole mess.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-42849261/fda-finds-falsification-of-drug-trial-results-affecting-dozens-of-companies/
http://www.clinicalresearchsociety.org/2011/07/28/fda-says-cro-cetero-faked-trial-data-pharmas-may-need-to-redo-tests/
http://www.bmj.com/content/343/bmj.d7201

Mike
November 22, 2011 11:33 am

Wow, you guys proved it again! Emails!111!11 That’s what is important! No, really, look over here, I have comments, taken out of context! They prove…uhh…it! That’s right, they prove it, can’t you see? Atmospheric chemistry, time series analysis, isotopes, all crap!!! Here…look at these emails!!!
Sells on Faux News, so whatever.
Jeezus on a cracker, help us.

Paul Benkovitz
November 22, 2011 11:33 am

Does anyone have a link to the actual torrent? The first link I clicked wanted to download a Microsoft windows executable. I guess that was suppose to be a torrent client. The other links are for magnet links. I drop torrents to a headless server. unfortunately it doesn’t do magnet links.

November 22, 2011 11:33 am

What RealClimate has to say:
“The blogosphere is abuzz with the appearance of a second tranche of the emails stolen from CRU just before thanksgiving in 2009. Our original commentary is still available of course (CRU Hack, CRU Hack: Context, etc.), and very little appears to be new in this batch. Indeed, even the out-of-context quotes aren’t that exciting, and are even less so in-context.”
“A couple of differences in this go around are worth noting: the hacker was much more careful to cover their tracks in the zip file they produced – all the file dates are artificially set to Jan 1 2011 for instance, and they didn’t bother to hack into the RealClimate server this time either. Hopefully they have left some trails that the police can trace a little more successfully than they’ve been able to thus far from the previous release.”
“But the timing of this release is strange. Presumably it is related to the upcoming Durban talks, but it really doesn’t look like there is anything worth derailing there at all. Indeed, this might even increase interest! A second release would have been far more effective a few weeks after the first – before the inquiries and while people still had genuine questions. Now, it just seems a little forced, and perhaps a symptom of the hacker’s frustration that nothing much has come of it all and that the media and conversation has moved on.”
“If anyone has any questions about anything they see that seems interesting, let us know in the comments and we’ll see if we can provide some context. We anticipate normal service will be resumed shortly.”
————————————
“…this might even increase interest! [for Durban]”
Hah! Looks like they know that Durban is going to be a snorefest. Glad this will liven it up!
“We anticipate normal service will be resumed shortly.”
SurrealClimate got hacked 🙂

Al Gored
November 22, 2011 11:36 am

Possibly has been noted before, and it is a bit like pointing out a spelling error in Attila, but here’s a typo:
“Guardian has a story up be Leo Hickman”
by
Now, on to reading the gory details.

strawbale
November 22, 2011 11:38 am

From 0344, FOI requests and Climate Audit
Jones:
“When the FOI requests began here, the FOI person said we had to abide by the requests. It took a couple of half hour sessions – one at a screen, to convince them otherwise showing them what CA was all about. Once they became aware of the types of people we were dealing with, everyone at UEA (in the registry and in the Environmental Sciences school – the head of school and a few others) became very supportive. I’ve got to know the FOI person quite well and the Chief Librarian – who deals with appeals. The VC is also aware of what is going on – at least for one of the requests, but probably doesn’t know the number we’re dealing with. We are in double figures. One issue is that these requests aren’t that widely known within the School. So I don’t know who else at UEA may be getting them. CRU is moving up the ladder of requests at UEA though – we’re way behind computing though.
The inadvertent email I sent last month has led to a Data Protection Act request sent by a certain Canadian, saying that the email maligned his scientificcredibility with his peers! If he pays 10 pounds (which he hasn’t yet) I am supposed to go through my emails and he can get anything I’ve written about him. About 2 months ago I deleted loads of emails, so have very little – if anything at all. This legislation is different from the FOI – it is supposed to be used to find put why you might have a poor credit rating !”

Al Gored
November 22, 2011 11:39 am

And really love the timing. Climategate 1.0 skuttled Copenhagen in the nick of time. Now this just before the Durban Watermelon Festival. Purrrfect!

Steve Jones
November 22, 2011 11:39 am

I posted this on Bishop Hill:
Can I suggest that links to the various blogs discussing these e-mails are posted, wherever possible, on the BBC comments boards. Rather than ‘wherever possible’ I was originally going to say ‘wherever appropriate’. This is not possible at the moment as the most appropriate location would have been in the BBC’s Science and Environment section where, strangely, comments do not appear to be welcome right now.
No surprise to see Richard Black instantly launch into a damage limitation exercise. If I was Inspector Knacker I would certainly be wanting to clarify his unambiguous statements about how the e-mails were accessed.
Interesting times for decent folk, worrying times for conspirators.

November 22, 2011 11:41 am

I hear that Lord Oxbourgh phone is already ringing off the hook.

Al Gored
November 22, 2011 11:43 am

Anthony writes: “UPDATE4: 9:45 AM PST I’ve changed the headline from Climategate 2.0 to Climategate 2.0 emails – They’re real and they’re spectacular! with a hat tip to Jerry Seinfeld.”
Looks like the next Seinfled reference could be about ‘shrinkage.’

Skeptik
November 22, 2011 11:43 am

Tucci78 @ November 22, 2011 at 7:22 am
Funny (=strange) you should use the word ‘nonce’ in relation to an employee of Penn State. In British gaols (and possibly also in the State Pen :)) this has a specific meaning – those deserving of that sobriquet usually meeting unpleasantness involving razor blades fused into toothbrush handles or boiling saturated sugar solutions.

DirkH
November 22, 2011 11:48 am

elmer says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:11 am
“What do you guys think?
http://www.minnesotansforglobalwarming.com/m4gw/assets_c/2011/11/Hide-the-Decline-2-The-Cause-755.html
Marvelous! Add some “Starring: Phil Jones as The Eraser and Mike Mann as himself” or so and it’s perfect.

Snotrocket
November 22, 2011 11:51 am

Anthony, with the comment count at 276 and counting, not to mention the 80-odd on BH, etc,etc, I figured it’s about time FOIA had a name. Much like ‘Deepthroat’ became the legend of Watergate.
It’s not immediately obvious, but I have come up with the name: Inspector Gosling, and the reason in this.
FOIA posted the first link to your blog in the Kenneth comments. He/She/They did it between comments from a P Gosselin and Spector. As it was posted ‘in’ between the two I figured they should have the honour of the name: So, ‘Inspector Gosling’, the one who really goosed the Team.
Too weak??

A physicist
November 22, 2011 11:52 am

More Soylent Green! posts:

Me, I’m from Missouri (which a often pronounce as Mizzura, just to annoy my spouse) and you have to show me. Give me some real facts.

Missouri! That’s the country we bottom-tier-county Iowa farmkids always called “lower Iowa.” We also called it “lapland” `cuz it’s where Iowa laps down into Missouri. :).
The serious way to gather facts is to begin 180 years ago, on the American Institute of Physics web site “The Discovery of Global Warming: Timeline.”
The history shows plainly that — much like America’s Founders — America’s scientists have been pretty much right-on-target for eighteen decades in a row … which oughtta be enough to convince even the folks in Missouri that the scientists most likely have got it right in the present decade too.

IAmDigitap
November 22, 2011 11:54 am

[snip]

View from the Solent
November 22, 2011 11:55 am

More Soylent Green! says:
November 22, 2011 at 10:18 am
Was the file created with 7zip? Just Google 7 zip password cracker and go from there. Be sure to carefully check all downloads for malware@
=======================================================
You’ll only find password brute-forcers. Cracking a pass-phrase is *hard*. http://xkcd.com/936/ gives you some idea of the difference.

Bob Parker
November 22, 2011 11:57 am

Well Penn State / UEA
No pressure hey

G. Karst
November 22, 2011 11:57 am

One big difference between Climategate 1 and 2 is that in 1, it took days for the MSM to catch on, now they are on top of it.

Anthony:
It will be extremely interesting to see what difference that actually makes. Anthropologists (ethnologists?) start your recorders. GK

Jean Parisot
November 22, 2011 11:58 am

5315 — from ’04 — glacier doubt:
… about the Kilimanjaro core and he got some local temperatures – that we don’t have access to, and there was little warming in them. The same situation applies for Quelccaya in Peru and also some of his Tibet sites. Lonnie thinks they are disappearing because of sublimation, but he can’t pin anything down. …
Note the date 04

DirkH
November 22, 2011 12:01 pm

I think “A physicist” is in fact an astrophysicist…

gallier2
November 22, 2011 12:01 pm

Also available on emule/edonkey P2P net
ed2k://|file|FOIA2011.zip|181781854|0D57BD8900034A3497275D18E2BF2458|h=EK5NQCJH7VFYQGJZ2WX2GN63DRVUQ62Q|/

November 22, 2011 12:02 pm

collection of ipsem lorem text files

It’s “lorem ipsum“, which in turn is “dolorem ipsum” (“pain/grief itself”) broken in the middle of the word.

Stonyground
November 22, 2011 12:07 pm

Maybe my memory is playing tricks. In the OP it says that the MSM took days to begin reporting on the original Climategate story, as I recall there was a deafening silence for weeks. The blogs were buzzing about the subject and as time went on it was impossible to believe that the MSM were not fully aware of the story but hoping that if they kept quiet for long enough it would go away.
@A Physicist
It is a bit difficult to see how we could do an in depth analysis of climate data when those involved fight tooth and nail to prevent their data entering the public domain. Pop science books by Dawkins, Sagan, Goldacre etc, assure me that scientists welcome intense scrutiny of their work because only then can they be sure that they have the truth. If they are in the right even the best efforts of the sceptics will fail to prove otherwise. If you are indeed a physicist, why are you defending people who hide their data and resort to name calling to deflect attention from that?

Stephen Wilde
November 22, 2011 12:08 pm

“The history shows plainly that — much like America’s Founders — America’s scientists have been pretty much right-on-target for eighteen decades in a row …”
America’s founders thought that the Constitution had long term sustainability.
A chap called de Tocqueville foresaw that the system would only be sustainable until the politicians realised that they could buy votes with taxpayer money.
We are now on the cusp of determining which was correct.
I pray that de Tocqueville was wrong but the numbers say otherwise.

Dave Wendt
November 22, 2011 12:09 pm

sceptical says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:25 am
It will be interesting to see how partial quotes taken out of context will be spun this time. Last time, those who did the spinning were left with egg on their face after numerous investigations.
There is a neologism that has gained quite a bit of currency lately. The word is “beclowning”. You would do well to look it up.

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 12:09 pm

David Falkner says:
November 22, 2011 at 8:34 am
The celebrations are a bit premature, I think. Are they actual emails? How will we know for sure? If they are, I am personally beginning to wonder if the leaks aren’t coming from a foreign governmental entity. China and Russia have been doing quite a bit of hacking recently.
_______________________________
In that case politely thank them.

CodeTech
November 22, 2011 12:13 pm

November 22… another day that will live in history… oh wait, it already does: 1963.
Just randomly spot-checking through the emails I’ve seen enough incriminating text to, at the very least, fire many of these people, and possibly have them in front of a court.
Really? Have your FOI person call my FOI person? They probably already know each other? The outright discussion of how to avoid legal requirements SHOULD be answerable in a court of law.
We (here, at WUWT) already had pretty low respect for the Team, and their Cause, but this takes it to a whole new lower level. Frankly, I wouldn’t want any of them so much as serving me at McDonalds. Hey… Briff… TWO COATS of wax you idiot…

Brian Macker
November 22, 2011 12:15 pm

“Well, they look like mine but I hardly see anything that appears damning at all, despite them having been taken out of context. ”
I guess he was expecting the emails to be damning. Not a very good admission to make.

Joe
November 22, 2011 12:19 pm

I’d like to see the log of rejected comments at RealClimate right now. Somehow they have only had 12 comments today on this story….
This one is funny:
===========================================
Could you put these in context, please?:
[John] Cook: “I am afraid that Mike [Mann] is defending something that increasingly can not be defended. He is investing too much personal stuff in this and not letting the science move ahead.”
[Response: Not “John”, Ed, and this was in 2002, related to the Briffa/Osborn perspective in Science 2002. Those were early days in the paleo-reconstruction business and different groups had different opinions about how to proceed and interpret the results. Normal science…. – gavin]
Bradley: “I’m sure you agree–the [Mike] Mann/ [Phil] Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year ‘reconstruction’.”
[Response: Again, people are free to make their own judgements on papers. This was in 2003 (discussing Mann and Jones (2003)). – gavin]
Crowley: “Phil [Jones], thanks for your thoughts – guarantee there will be no dirty laundry in the open.”
[Response: The discussion is related to SST anomalies, but I don’t really understand crowley’s characterisation. The difficulties in the SST record have been well discussed in the literature – most recently in Kennedy et al. – gavin]
[Phil] Jones: “There shouldn’t be someone else at UEA [University of East Anglia] with different views (from “recent extreme weather is due to global warming”) – at least not a climatologist.”
[Response: Jones is pushing back against the idea that there are always ‘two sides’ on science discussions for a media event, where the organisers wanted someone else from UEA to argue with Jones. – gavin]
==============================================
So they have simply accepted that these are the real deal over at RC and have started the PR work.

Alec, aka Daffy Duck
November 22, 2011 12:19 pm

from another blog:
From: Phil Jones
To: mann@virginia.edu
Subject: CLIMATIC CHANGE needs your advice – YOUR EYES ONLY !!!!!
Date: Fri Jan 16 13:25:59 2004
Mike,
This is for YOURS EYES ONLY. Delete after reading – please ! I’m trying to redress the
balance. One reply from Pfister said you should make all available !! Pot calling the
kettle
black – Christian doesn’t make his methods available. I replied to the wrong Christian
message
so you don’t get to see what he said. Probably best. Told Steve separately and to get
more
advice from a few others as well as Kluwer and legal.
PLEASE DELETE – just for you, not even Ray and Malcolm
Cheers
Phil
http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/1/FOIA/mail/1074277559.txt

Frank K.
November 22, 2011 12:21 pm

The story is now on Drudge. (Link is to The Guardian story at this time). Floodgates = Open.

Bernal
November 22, 2011 12:21 pm

I sense a disturbance in Teh Force. I really do. There is a shift in the narrative from argument from authority to argument from Bass Pro-Shops. Wonder what that is in Latin. “Everybody is on the Catastrophic Wet/Dry Warm/Cold bandwagon even these murderous hunting organizations or Up With Ducks” or whatever that was.
Where are the trolls of yesteryear. I miss our old trolls and wish we had them back. These new trolls are inferior trolls. Someone without a life should compile a climate troll registry so we would never forget.
One thing great about all this is that we are witnessing the destruction of the Green brand. When Solyndra is gone, the electric cars are gone, the Polar bears are still here, the windmills we will have with us always, when the rent seekers are in jail, that green e is going to look like kim chee gone bad. Actually kim chee is born bad. Any way expect the search for a new symbol soon.

Geoff C
November 22, 2011 12:23 pm

All I can sayis..
“This is cheering news”!

Skeptik
November 22, 2011 12:25 pm

vide my earlier post:
For the uninitiated, ‘nonce’, for British prisoners at least, is a convicted sex-offender.
Apologies for having posted on a later thread..

RockyRoad
November 22, 2011 12:25 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:53 am


That’s the practical reason why CEOs, military strategists, farmers, fishers, and hunters, not to mention most mathematicians, scientists, and engineers, are rejecting the peculiar brand of skepticism that is increasingly practiced here on Watt’s Up With That.

Let’s see… I’ve been a CEO, (but not a military strategist although I do have two sons in the military), have been a farmer, and a fisherman, a hunter, have minor degrees in math and physics and an MS & BS in geology and an ME and BS in mining engineering, work as a computer systems engineer…. and I find the “peculiar brand of skepticism that is increasingly practiced here on Watts Up With That” you speak of is:
a) Exactly what it should be–both practical and to the point,
b) Particularly devastating to The Cause (and proportional to the attraction it has on trolls like you so it must be doing great!).
c) A black hole for trolls that try to downplay or refute the damage ClimateGate 2 is doing to their pet watermelon project and the UN’s IPCC.
d) Just opposite of the hysterical, unfounded (untruthful), unscientific pronouncements from the likes of Gore, Mann, and others in The Team and elsewhere in cushy positions feeding from the public trough.
Nice try, “physicist”, but yours is a case of Epic Fail. (I also seriously doubt you’re a “physicist” or anything else, but what really matters is that some of our great establishments of academia have been suckered on this whole topic, so you may be excused.)

Another Gareth
November 22, 2011 12:25 pm

John-X says: “Is the “perpetrator” (as described by the crack [smoking?] Norfolk police) really saying we need to find USD37,000,000,ooo,000 to spend on bird choppers, solar panels, lunar panels, perpetual motion machines, and other “sustainable” energy, so we can “stabilize” (American spelling) our emmissions at “sustainable levels” (whatever that means) ???”
I believe they are not.
The reference to $37trillion is a figure the International Energy Agency produced two years ago. Contrast that with the preceding points on poverty and the following remark on how “Today’s decisions should be based on all the information we can get, not on hiding the decline.” and I take their message to be one of incredulity that politicians and environmental advocates are seriously intending to commit *massive* amounts of resources and redirect *enormous* proportions of our productivity into chasing something so vague (and possibly even beneficial!) in comparison to real crushing abject poverty that affects a huge number of people day in day out, all year round, whether the world is warming or cooling.
They are making a statement about priorities and honesty.

John
November 22, 2011 12:25 pm

Ok, still waiting for something interesting…

A Lovell
November 22, 2011 12:29 pm

Dave Wendt says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:09 pm
I like your new word,’beclowning’. I heard another the other day. ‘Testiculating’. It means waving your arms about whilst talking bo***cks.

Peter Miller
November 22, 2011 12:34 pm

“A physicist” obviously works for a government organisation and is therefore a grant addict, and/or someone who is required to preach the party line of giving politicians the rationale for taxing the wrong things in order to support welfare dependence schemes etc.

November 22, 2011 12:34 pm

This latest chapter in the Climategate saga may prove to be more fun than a bucketful of doorknobs!

RockyRoad
November 22, 2011 12:34 pm

John says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:25 pm

Ok, still waiting for something interesting…

May I suggest you wash your glasses with soap and water and start, oh, several years ago…. Then return and report.

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 12:41 pm

elmer says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:47 am
What is the catch phrase for my next video? Is their anything as quotable as “Hide the Decline”?
_______________________
Thank you for the “Hide the Decline” video, I loved it.
Also thank you for the posting the information about the abandoned windmills blotting the landscape. I had been wondering about that recently. Looks like the “Green ” Corporations take the grants and subsidies and leave their messes behind for the little people to clean up as usual.

…The US experience with wind farms has left over 14,000 wind turbines abandoned and slowly decaying, in most instances the turbines are just left as symbols of a dying Climate Religion, nowhere have the Green Environmentalists appeared to clean up their mess or even complain about the abandoned wind farms….

http://minnesotansforglobalwarming.com/m4gw/

Jimmy Haigh
November 22, 2011 12:43 pm

John says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:25 pm
John’s in denial! John’s in denial!….

DirkH
November 22, 2011 12:43 pm

Dana Loesch @ Breitbart mentions ClimateGate 2.0; will discuss details tomorrow.

wsbriggs
November 22, 2011 12:44 pm

@a physicist
Listing groups whose administrators may have joined in the cacophony of bogus AGW claims, is not the same as listing individuals. This is starkly visible in the refusal of AGU to put the question to their membership. APS is the same. Scratch a Geophysicist and you find a strong sceptic with nearly 100% certainty (note I said nearly, I know some folks whose politics get in the way of reason just like some folks religions do).
Do note that unlike the Warmists, we don’t use the 3 Billy Goats Gruff to keep you at bay. You’re free to live beneath you bridge all you want.

Rhoda Ramirez
November 22, 2011 12:44 pm

I wouldn’t be altogether surprised if the underground support for Mann, Jones, et.al. disappears as the movers and shakers move their emphasis to their backup strategy, ‘ocean acidification’, now that the ‘global warming’ crowd is getting freighted with more and more questionable practices and outright scandals

Jean Parisot
November 22, 2011 12:44 pm

Someone should take away M Mann’s twitter key before he hurts himself

wsbriggs
November 22, 2011 12:44 pm

Correction: your bridge

November 22, 2011 12:46 pm

This is 5341.txt from the newly released information. Bolding is mine.
date: Fri, 09 Oct 1998 16:09:24 +0000 (GMT)
from: Robert Nicholls
subject: Re: IMPORTANT:NATURE COMMENTARY
to: m.hulme@xxx.xx.uk, nwa1@xxxxx.xx.uk, arnell61@xxx.xx PARRYML@xxx.xx
All numbers are correct and I find the new text fine. The two
additional paragraphs make an excellent case for adaptation.
However, an implicit message of Table 2 is that adaptation could
handle climate change alone (the -15% option), so why are we worrying
about mitigation? I think that this will be noted by many readers and
it would be best if the piece had an explicit view on this, or delete
the -15% option.
We could note the long-term benefits of mitigation
earlier in the piece (like GEC), or alternatively the cummulative
threats of an unmitigated pathway.
The only other change I would suggest is to table 1. Remove sea-level
rise and replace with “coastal flooding (per year)”.

Robert
______________________________________________________________________
Note New Fax Number Below
Robert J. Nicholls
Middlesex University
Queensway
Enfield EN3 4SF
United Kingdom
44-181-362-5569 (Tel and answer phone)
44-181-362-6957 (Fax)
R.nicholls@xxx.xx

November 22, 2011 12:48 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:52 am
Missouri! That’s the country we bottom-tier-county Iowa farmkids always called “lower Iowa.” We also called it “lapland” `cuz it’s where Iowa laps down into Missouri. :).

Love these interstate jibes! Another for my collection!!

commieBob
November 22, 2011 12:48 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:52 am
The history shows plainly that — much like America’s Founders — America’s scientists have been pretty much right-on-target for eighteen decades in a row … which oughtta be enough to convince even the folks in Missouri that the scientists most likely have got it right in the present decade too.

This is not scientists vs. ‘the great unwashed masses’. There are two groups of scientists in this debate. One side believes that man made CO2 in the atmosphere will cause catastrophic warming. The other side does not. There are more on one side than the other but that does not make them right. In fact, the ‘skeptic’ side has some quite senior and distinguished scientists whose expert judgment should not be easily discounted.

Karl Maki
November 22, 2011 12:48 pm

UPDATE6: 12:08PM PST Here’s an email that collaborates a radio interview…
Are you sure that shouldn’t read that the email is corroborated by the radio interview?

Crispin in Waterloo
November 22, 2011 12:48 pm

@A physicist
You do not sound like a physicist.
“Prominent non-skeptic farming organizations include 4H and FFA (if you’re from a farm-family, you won’t have to ask what those are).”
I attended a FFA meeting in Iowa and realised for the first time there is a BrownShirts movement in rural America. Why on earth would they support CAGW?? All Canadian farmers have the good sense to know that the climate is cooling (outside town) and they are getting some extra growth from the extra CO2 to compensate for it. The rest is noise
4H?? Like 4H is full of graduate engineers. The last guy I know who was a member sold his cow and bought a motorcycle.
I agree that “A physicist” is a bot. A dumb one at that. There is a clown at RC boasting about dupes not realising they are talking to a computer generated load of generic AGW tripe. “A Physicist” is using the same boilerplate without the links to shoddy papers and hollow rebuttals.
From now on we will be able to say, “You sound more like “A Physicist” than a physicist” when they mean, “You are talking crap.”

Jason
November 22, 2011 12:49 pm

I just left this on RC:
Straight question to Gavin.
Mike Mann said in one email:
“I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an
investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his
thusfar unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.Perhaps the
same needs to be done w/ this Keenan guy.
I believe that the only way to stop these people is by exposing them and
discrediting them.
Do you mind if I send this on to Gavin Schmidt (w/ a request to respect
the confidentiality with which you have provided it) for his additional
advice/thoughts? He usually has thoughtful insights wiith respect to
such matters….”
Putting climate science to one side, and ignoring the obvious question “did he pass this on to you”, do you think it is acceptable for a climate scientist to consider what Mann suggested doing?
————————-
Lets see if their open anwsering if questions continues.

codehead
November 22, 2011 12:51 pm

“UPDATE6: 12:08PM PST Here’s an email that collaborates a radio interview I did…”
I know that you meant to type “corroborates”…

Matt
November 22, 2011 12:53 pm

UPDATE4: 9:45 AM PST I’ve changed the headline from Climategate 2.0 to Climategate 2.0 emails – They’re real and they’re spectacular! with a hat tip to Jerry Seinfeld.
Shouldn’t the hat tip be to Teri Hatcher?

A physicist
November 22, 2011 12:55 pm

Stonyground says:

It is a bit difficult to see how we could do an in depth analysis of climate data when those involved fight tooth and nail to prevent their data entering the public domain.

Stonyground, there’s tons of climate data available and has been for many years (and more data coming on-line every month).
Equally importantly, mathematicians and scientists around the world are working overtime to give folks all the mathematical tools they need to analyze that climate data.
A terrific example is the article in the November Notices of the American Mathematical Society, by Chen, Laane, Wheeler, and Zhang, titled “Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective.”
This article is available “free-as-in-freedom,” and even for folks who don’t care to work through the details, this article provides a very thorough overview of the real mathematical foundations of climate change science.
Now, it is natural to hope that both climate science, and skepticism of that science, do not require any grounding in mathematics — needless to say, that hope isn’t realistic.
It’s fair to say, however, that the folks who understand the mathematics of climate change science are overwhelmingly more likely to be convinced by the data than folks who lack that grounding; that’s why rational climate-change skepticism absolutely requires a solid grounding in mathematics.
As for the non-rational brand of climate-change skepticism that is mainly grounded in politics-first slogans, cherry-picked data, and witch-hunting … well … that kind of skepticism is becoming (unfortunately) the most common kind.

Alex the skeptic
November 22, 2011 12:56 pm

Climategate Season 2 Episode 1. Darn, cannot find one single bag of pop corn from any corner shop anywhere round the neighbouring ten blocks. I’ll stick to finger nails.

Ray
November 22, 2011 12:57 pm

Out of context?
I think the context is well established… and lots of emails give enough context to see The Game The Team Plays.

Dave Springer
November 22, 2011 12:57 pm

@Anthony
“They’re real and they’re spectacular”
LOL – I recognized it without the attribution.
Mann Hands might be experiencing some shrinkage right about now. And those other two face characters as well. But we celebrate here. For the rest of us, Festivus!

Richard M
November 22, 2011 12:57 pm

As others have indicated this release appears to be more of a threat to the team. Come clean NOW guys or you will regret it.
This makes be believe our whistleblower actually knows one or more of the team and is trying to get them to finally admit the truth. He doesn’t want to make it SO OBVIOUS that a caveman could figure it out. But he WILL do it if they continue to hide the truth.
It makes me believe there is some obvious evidence of illegal activities.
PS. Elmer … liked it, hopefully a new song is in our future.

Skeptik
November 22, 2011 1:00 pm

It took 1h:15m for the first troll to respond, and 2h:32m for the same troll (from her/his handle, claiming to be ‘A physicist’, but using only non-Physics arguments). The ‘Rapid Response Unit’ is broken – or its ghast is flabbered by the release!
Use proper scientists to respond under scientific handles. If it’s just ‘believers’ – who cares? There’s one born every minute.

Bulldust
November 22, 2011 1:01 pm

Seems I am a little late to the party this time… though I approve of the name ClimateGate 2.0 😀

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 1:02 pm

Jeff says:
November 22, 2011 at 10:11 am
2212, Phil Jones: “Don’t put too much faith in the models”
though not clear to me which models he is discussing, perhaps someone more familiar with this stuff can help
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Try WUWT: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/11/20/tamino-misses-the-point-and-attempts-to-distract-his-readers/

Latitude
November 22, 2011 1:03 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:52 am
The serious way to gather facts is to begin 180 years ago, on the American Institute of Physics web site “The Discovery of Global Warming: Timeline.”
The history shows plainly that — much like America’s Founders — America’s scientists have been pretty much right-on-target for eighteen decades in a row … which oughtta be enough to convince even the folks in Missouri that the scientists most likely have got it right in the present decade too.
==========================
At least they are not still lying and worshiping weather Gods … throwing virgins in volcanoes and requiring other sacrifices and payments from the general public…..
of course I’m kidding……everyone knows they are still doing that
This racket has been going on since the first shyster put on a feather hat

Tom
November 22, 2011 1:07 pm

physicist,
What is “slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, or witch-hunting” but a slogan. You repeat it and other variants over and over.

Matt G
November 22, 2011 1:08 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:53 am
17 years of warming is cherry picking and the only period that the scare has been based on. (blue graph)
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1998/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1998/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1998/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1998/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1980/to:1998/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1980/to:1998/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1934/to:1980/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1934/to:1980/trend
Based on whats happened before and after, the planet Earth demonstrates natural cycles dominate.

David L
November 22, 2011 1:13 pm

X-mas comes early!!!! What a nice present. I remember a month or two ago someone around here was speculating (more like wishful thinking) of more email leaks sometime this fall. Well, they’re here! I can’t wait for the thorough dissection and commentaries!!!

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 1:14 pm

Steve In S.C. says:
November 22, 2011 at 10:26 am
Stock tip of the day:
ConAgra Foods, Inc. Common Stoc(NYSE: CAG )
providers of ActII and Orville Redenbacher brands of popcorn.
________________________________
I would not touch ConAgra for all the money in the world. (Or eat their food)
The Conagra-gate scandal:
“Shielding the Giant: USDA’s ‘Don’t Look, Don’t Know’ Policy for Beef Inspection.”
http://www.whistleblower.org/storage/documents/Shielding_the_Giant_Final_PDF.pdf

David Ball
November 22, 2011 1:15 pm

My gran used to say ” Your sins will find you out”.
She also used to say ” It’s going to end in tears” when we were rough-housing.
Looks like both are applicable here.

Alix James
November 22, 2011 1:18 pm

“Skeptik says:
November 22, 2011 at 1:00 pm
It took 1h:15m for the first troll to respond, and 2h:32m for the same troll (from her/his handle, claiming to be ‘A physicist’, but using only non-Physics arguments). The ‘Rapid Response Unit’ is broken – or its ghast is flabbered by the release!
Use proper scientists to respond under scientific handles. If it’s just ‘believers’ – who cares? There’s one born every minute.”
Heh. I think this might be an example of “red shirt syndrome”, i.e., the ensign with the red shirt on the away mission on “Star Trek” is laser fodder. Why waste front line troops clearing the land mines? Send in the donkeys first.
Although, they are progressing through the “7 stages of grief” fairly quickly this time.
Stage 1: they aren’t real emails
Stage 2: they are real emails but they aren’t in context
Stage 3: they are in context, but that’s how scientists work
Stage 4: ok, this isn’t really science, but you guys stole the emails!
Stage 5: this is old stuff
Stage 6: this is nothing
Stage 7: look everyone! Winter storm! See, we have proof of our theories now.
Repeat as needed

Dave Springer
November 22, 2011 1:22 pm

Kaboom says:
November 22, 2011 at 6:58 am
If the ZIP is all text it should be quite vulnerable to brute force cracking by using known information (i.e. email addresses, keywords/phrases) in it.
————————————————————
the same thought occurred to me

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 22, 2011 1:23 pm

A Physicist,
Notwithstaning all of the poor data, bull crap topping does little for the pie.
The old ones had a better long range outlook than your guys via rocks with drawings in Chaco Canyon in New Mexico.
History knows you, history will long remember your support of poor lie pie.
AN APACHEWHOKNOWS

Milo
November 22, 2011 1:23 pm

Phil Plait Professional “skeptic” is already doing is best to dismiss these emails. Its really sad but high predictable from him http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/climategate-2-more-ado-about-nothing-again/

David Ball
November 22, 2011 1:23 pm

CodeTech says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:13 pm
Nice “Back to the Future” reference. Absolutely hilarious.

J Martin
November 22, 2011 1:28 pm

So the password encrypted emails are part of the download ?
If that’s so then perhaps there’s a chance that someone can crack the key and the public can have access to ALL the emails.
After all, it is our money that pays these so called scientists and our economy they are trying to get our goldfish brained politicians to destroy.

Ken Hall
November 22, 2011 1:29 pm

“2213
“I happen to agree with him and I actually think our statement is too
strong. It almost seems that we are suggesting physical models should be
thought of as empirical ones, which, despite the tuning, I think is an
overstatement. ””
So there is an empirical model of the climate? Wait… Are they saying that there is another full-sized identical earth on the opposite side of the sun from us acting as a model? or as a “control? against which we can test the hypothesis?
If not, then they must be referring to computer models which are anything but empirical.

Latitude
November 22, 2011 1:30 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:55 pm
It’s fair to say, however, that the folks who understand the mathematics of climate change science are overwhelmingly more likely to be convinced by the data than folks who lack that grounding; that’s why rational climate-change skepticism absolutely requires a solid grounding in mathematics.
As for the non-rational brand of climate-change skepticism that is mainly grounded in politics-first slogans, cherry-picked data, and witch-hunting … well … that kind of skepticism is becoming (unfortunately) the most common kind.
======================================================================
….obviously
Jones:
I too don’t see why the schemes should be symmetrical. The temperature ones
certainly will not as we’re choosing the periods to show warming.

Adrian
November 22, 2011 1:30 pm

Ah!
Today is my b-day. Thank you for the nice present.

Barbara Munsey
November 22, 2011 1:31 pm

elmer says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:47 am
What is the catch phrase for my next video? Is their anything as quotable as “Hide the Decline”?
——————————–
I’m sure you’ll think of something, as you are BRILLIANT!

It IS beginning to look a lot like Christmas, and I have every faith in you.

Jason
November 22, 2011 1:31 pm

What is fascinating this time is that the whistleblower has put the WHOLE lot out there, but used aes-256 encryption in 7zip to keep it secure.
It seems to be a deliberate spreading of the information that will require just the leaking of a password to allow thousands of copies to be accessed without downloading anything else.
It seems to be part of a strategy, but what is that strategy?

November 22, 2011 1:32 pm

From Real climate
“Explain this!
Dec 31 23:49 1999
From: Phil Jones
Subject: One world government
To: IPCC-group
Comrades,
Soon our once-great nation will rise from the ashes of the greatest war the world has ever known. Russia has changed. But our lives will not be wasted. The master plan is proceeding apace. Adolf Hitler once said “The great masses will more easily fall victim to a big lie than to a small one.” Indeed, the best kept secrets are the ones that everyone knows. Double agent Anthony Watts has a remarkable summary of the global warming charade. Stupidly is his sword and Folly his shield. By placing the truth where everyone can see it — nobody can! Today we have recruited over 2,000 scientists to The Team. To you I say we have only completed a beginning. There remains much that is undone. There are great tricks undiscovered, breakthroughs available to those who can remove one of the truth’s protective layers. Onward.
Phil.”

? !
REPLY: This is a fabricated email, Gavin apparently does not know any better – Anthony

dave ward
November 22, 2011 1:34 pm

It seems that there are some untrustworthy individuals in Norfolk Police:
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/staff_sacked_after_security_breaches_at_police_and_councils_in_norfolk_1_1133024
And other local news:
http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/norwich_mp_to_meet_with_climate_change_group_ahead_of_un_talks_1_1133957
Believe it or not “Norfolk is home to many experts on climate issues”

DirkH
November 22, 2011 1:38 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:55 pm
“This article is available “free-as-in-freedom,” and even for folks who don’t care to work through the details, this article provides a very thorough overview of the real mathematical foundations of climate change science.”
Dropping the insults and starting to lecture people about their lack of mathematics skills? You’re on the wrong thread and on the wrong blog. Go find yourself a climate model, SHOW that it has predictive skill and don’t come back before you have done so; take the rest of the warmist cult with you.

More Soylent Green!
November 22, 2011 1:39 pm

Iowa, just like Nebraska but without all the glitz and glitter.

November 22, 2011 1:39 pm

Anthony you may be interested in this one:
Double agent Anthony Watts has a remarkable summary of the global warming charade.
Real climate comment #19
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/11/two-year-old-turkey/
REPLY: That’s a completely fictional made up email in a comment, Gavin apparently doesn’t know better – Anthony

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 1:41 pm

Pete in Cumbria UK says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:02 am
…What is true is that our elected leaders believe it to be true and it is their actions that all these people are talking about- especially that huge and very dangerous thing that will impact on everyone – Carbon Tax…..
_________________________
What is really dangerous is things prepared by “Professional Researchers” Such as Shutdown of the Federal Government: Causes, Processes, and Effect by Clinton T. Brass, Analyst in Government Organization and Management. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34680.pdf
I saw one, released by WikiLeaks, about the Animal ID system that ONLY carried the opinions of the 5000 Corporate farms and did not include the opinions of the 2.1 million small farmers. That was several years ago and we are still battling the blasted ID here in the USA. I am expecting it to get rather nasty and lethal if they insist on pushing it through despite the resounding HECK NO!
This climategate /Obama buddies getting all the stimulus/ DOE loans is not going to help convince people that politicians/bureaucrats have the right to rule.

Mr.D.Imwit
November 22, 2011 1:42 pm

You need to amalgamate these Email’s with with the first batch.

Urederra
November 22, 2011 1:43 pm

elmer says:
November 22, 2011 at 10:21 am
@the_Butcher says:
yes, “the cause”
I like it.. I like it a lot

I cannot wait for “the effect”

JimOfCP
November 22, 2011 1:44 pm

Apologies if this already posted, but this news has hit SlashDot and the usual climate fraud deniers are running full tilt!

Latitude
November 22, 2011 1:44 pm

getting funnier………
“We should keep in mind that the climate system is complex, so that it is difficult, if not impossible to define a metric that captures the breadth of physical processes relevant to even a narrow area of focus.”
“[…] we found the [urban warming] effect is pretty big in the areas we analyzed.
This is a little different from the result you obtained in 1990.
[…] We have published a few of papers on this topic in Chinese. Unfortunately, when we sent our comments to the IPCC AR4, they were mostly rejected.”
“What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural fluctuation? They’ll kill us probably.”
‘I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process’
“It is inconceivable that policymakers will be willing to make billion-and trillion-dollar decisions for adaptation to the projected regional climate change based on models that do not even describe and simulate the processes that are the building blocks of climate variability.”

Christopher Hanley
November 22, 2011 1:44 pm

As they come to the home stretch it’s “slogan-shouting” in the lead (26), closely followed by “cherry-picking” (25), with “witch-hunting” struggling in third (23).

JimOfCP
November 22, 2011 1:45 pm

Apologies if this is already posted, but the Climategate 2.0 news just hit Slashdot. The usual suspects are blaming it on the Koch brothers again.

Gaz
November 22, 2011 1:48 pm

Maybe this will distract everyone from that pesky Berkely Earth Surface Temperature study. You know, the one that confirmed the results of the CRU, NASA, and all the other intrumental temperature records. Good luck with that.

JimOfCP
November 22, 2011 1:50 pm

Gaz says:
November 22, 2011 at 1:48 pm
*****
Oh, you mean that study that included only land records? That one?

TheGoodLocust
November 22, 2011 1:51 pm

Here is my comment that I just “submitted for peer review” at Realclimate:
“So in 1680.txt, why does Michael Mann say that you (Gavin), “usually has thoughtful insights wiith respect to such matters,” when discussing finding a journalist to investigate “fossil fuel connections” and any other dirt they could find in order to discredit McIntyre and Keenan?
Do you have a lot of experience in discrediting people whose work exposes your own?
Don’t worry, I’ll take your silence in this matter as an admission of guilt. “

Dave Wendt
November 22, 2011 1:52 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:55 pm
“A terrific example is the article in the November Notices of the American Mathematical Society, by Chen, Laane, Wheeler, and Zhang, titled “Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective.””
Just found your cite. In the first paragraph came upon this
.”The molecules of these gases trap heat in the form of infrared
radiation, causing the atmospheric temperature to rise. But which molecules are the greenhouse
gases, and just how do they trap heat?”
Not a hopeful start.

Theo Goodwin
November 22, 2011 1:53 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:55 pm
“It’s fair to say, however, that the folks who understand the mathematics of climate change science are overwhelmingly more likely to be convinced by the data than folks who lack that grounding; that’s why rational climate-change skepticism absolutely requires a solid grounding in mathematics.”
What kind of math are you referring to? Statistics? Sorry, but Climategaters should have learned by now that recorded data and statistics do not a science make. You need something more. You need reasonably well confirmed physical hypotheses. You do not have any.
Climate science has created no reasonably well confirmed physical hypotheses that go beyond Arrhenius’ work in the 19th century. Worse, climate science has failed to rigorously formulate Arrhenius’ hypotheses for use outside the laboratory and in application to climate phenomena in the real world.
Let’s take an example. Climate scientists are constantly referring to “forcings” and “feedbacks.” If climate science were a genuine science, use of such hand-waving terminology would have been replaced by reference to reasonably well confirmed physical hypotheses that can be used to explain and predict some important climate phenomena such as the behavior of clouds. You know that there are no such hypotheses. Admit it. You cannot produce one.

David L. Hagen
November 22, 2011 1:56 pm

Much faster MSM response this round:
Fox news: Climategate 2.0? More Emails Leaked From Climate Researchers Published November 22, 2011
Andy Revkin: Another Treaty Negotiation, Another Batch of Climate Science E-Mail November 22, 2011, 4:23 pm

Jon P
November 22, 2011 1:58 pm

Gaz,
As the PR Firm RealClimate has taught us, the BEST study is not peer reviewed and thus should not be taken seriously, at all.
Thanks for playing!

David Ball
November 22, 2011 2:00 pm

Howdy Elmer! If I may be so bold, I have a notion for your next video. Perhaps mods would be so kind as to provide my info? Regards, …….. D

Tucci78
November 22, 2011 2:01 pm

At 8:20 AM on 22 November, Ken Hall had responded to “A physicist with:

What you posted was such a classical example of projection that psychology students could use it as a case study.
Most of the people here at WUWT are interested in truth. The alarmists are the ones who indulge in cherry picking and slogan shouting and avoiding the real science and attacking the messenger. Just as you are doing, hiding behind the name “A physicist”….

The use of a pseudonym isn’t necessarily to be decried, though the wonderful arrogance of this critter’s choice – “A physicist” – manifests in this sort of forum a grandiosity so typical of narcissistic personality disorder (ICD 9 301.81) as to be effectively pathognomonic.
Couple that with this specimen’s absolute lack of any scientific argument whatsoever (if only to establish a defense of the discussions into which the C.R.U. correspondents had entered in their professional e-mail exchanges exposed in the FOIA2011.zip archive) and it lends credence to the supposition that “A physicist” is anything but a practicing professional in that discipline.
Indeed, in his opening post, “A physicist” made it explicit that his motivations are entirely political, stating that the tone of the comments in this forum gave visitors to the thread some kind of a

…common-sense reason why the perception of a “Conservative War on Science” is becoming the consensus view of America’s mathematicians, scientists, and engineers … and even more seriously for all who hope that American conservatism has any future, is becoming the consensus view too of America’s serious-minded CEOs.

In other words, the gripe of this “A physicistSchnorrer is not that those of us pressing the case against the anthropogenic global warming fraud are skeptical on the basis of adherence to sound scientific principles and practices but that so many of us are politically conservative – or, at least, hostile to the politically “Liberal” statists who are struggling to put the AGW fraud across in massive schemes of government-enforced pillage and economic dislocation.
I am myself neither a political conservative (see F.A. Hayek for why I should not be considered such) nor am I all that much “ interested in truth.”
I am instead a
libertarian, interested politically in the protection of the individual human beings rights to his life, his liberty, and his property, and when it comes to the issue of the AGW fraud, I am far less “interested in truth” than I am focused upon exposing lies in order to ensure that such mendacity is not exploited to violate peoples’ rights to their lives, their liberties, and their property.
I would suggest that “A physicist” has proven to be someone with not only delusions of grandeur but also obvious political intention to violate the individual human rights of his neighbors.
Those of us skeptical of the AGW fraud and its perpetrators have effectively scotched one of the ways in which “A physicist” had been hoping – fervently – to engage the machinery of civil government in the plunder and suppression of his fellow human beings, predicating extraordinary schemes of taxation and normative intervention on those whom “A physicist” obviously hates and envies, and upon whose wealth and freedoms “A physicist” has arguably criminous intentions.
In that sense – in that the modern American “Liberal” is in fact a predator practicing policies designed to turn our Western polities into quasisocialistic kleptocracies – those of us who engage here on Watts Up With That? as advocates of scientific skepticism do, indeed, give substantial aid and comfort to the political conservatives who make up greatest part of the opposition to “Liberal” mamzers like “A physicist.”
And that really does seem to knot the hell out of “A physicist‘s” underwear, doesn’t it?

Theo Goodwin
November 22, 2011 2:02 pm

Ken Hall says:
November 22, 2011 at 1:29 pm
“2213
“It almost seems that we are suggesting physical models should be thought of as empirical ones…”
Even among the Climategaters there were scientists who understood the limitations of computer models, especially the fact that they are not empirical. Yet none have come forward with an explanation of this fundamental objection to the IPCC’s use of computer models as evidence.

A physicist
November 22, 2011 2:04 pm

A physicist says:

“This article is available “free-as-in-freedom,” and even for folks who don’t care to work through the details, this article provides a very thorough overview of the real mathematical foundations of climate change science.”

DirkH responds: Dropping the insults and starting to lecture people about their lack of mathematics skills? You’re on the wrong thread and on the wrong blog. Go find yourself a climate model, SHOW that it has predictive skill and don’t come back before you have done so; take the rest of the warmist cult with you.

I respectfully suggest again that DirkH, and all who are interested in climate change science, visit the November issue of Notices of the American Mathematical Society and retrieve the free-as-in-freedom article Chen, Laane, Wheeler, and Zhang, titled “Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective.”
This article offers a vivid time-line, clear physical explanations, powerful mathematical tools, and yes, it offers too precisely what DirkH is looking for: links to seminal observations and experiments that extent back in time to the dawn era of climate change science.
Whether one is skeptical of modern climate change science or not, rational skepticism is just plain impossible without a solid appreciation of these scientific foundations.

Nestor
November 22, 2011 2:05 pm

Sorry Gaz. the not BEST group was at sloppy and used the same poor data records as mann et. al. with some interesting errors.
http://climate.n0gw.net/BEST_Data_Quality_Problems.pdf
as we in the Comp biz say… GIGO.

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 2:07 pm

elmer says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:11 am
What do you guys think?
http://www.minnesotansforglobalwarming.com/m4gw/assets_c/2011/11/Hide-the-Decline-2-The-Cause-755.html
____________________
Nice
Just remember that Mann has FREE lawyers…… Talk about a travesty of justice.

TheGoodLocust
November 22, 2011 2:07 pm

Oh fun, I goaded Gavin into a response. It looks like webcite isn’t working or Realclimate has blocked webcite (gee, why would they do that?).
[Response: My ignoring you would simply be a sign that your out-of-context smear is too stupid to address. But I think it worthwhile to point out that the first line of this email has “They will misrepresent you and take out of context anything you give them”. How prescient! For everyone else, this is an email discussing the appalling (and officially investigated and rejected) allegation of fraud that Keenan made about a scientist at SUNY Albany. Jones was asking for advice on whether and how to respond to a request from Peiser (acting editor of Energy and Environment) for comments on a paper Keenan had submitted claiming a ‘fraud’. If you are looking for people who have experience discrediting people, I would start with Keenan. – gavin]
Of course, he doesn’t actually respond to the question. Just claims “out of context” and attacks to distract from why Mann thinks Gavin is good at discrediting people.

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 22, 2011 2:07 pm

Jason,
To make the guilty sweat, to pull them into lies real time. Then get them on the stand and pejury.
Sort of a Al Capone deal.

November 22, 2011 2:08 pm

A physicist says…
What was that after “slogan shouting” again? I must have missed it in your earlier posts?

James Sexton
November 22, 2011 2:13 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 10:38 am
Prominent non-skeptic farming organizations include 4H and FFA (if you’re from a farm-family, you won’t have to ask what those are).
==================================================================
Give me a break. You listed a bunch of groups that have political wannabees at the top. I am a member of some of those groups and no of none that believe the tripe of Catastrophic CC. And every 4H and FFA person I know….(literally hundreds if not thousands) are as skeptical about climate change as I am.
Please, RHINOs do a great disservice to the conservative perspective. Please quit acting as if these views are anywhere close to mainstream conservative views.

Joe Public
November 22, 2011 2:14 pm

It’s at a time like this, that that someone with Glenn Mulcaire’s phone-hacking skills could be taping some pretty interesting transatlantic telephone conversations.

LamontT
November 22, 2011 2:17 pm

Gaz you may want to do some research before stepping in it like that. Yes everyone here knows and agrees that for the 100 years or a bit more we have been warming. We have been coming out of the little ice age after all. We don’t agree on that for the last 10 years. And more importantly there is considerable doubt about how much of a role man has had in the warming or if it was bad. Particularly there is doubt that it will result in catastrophic disaster.
Perhaps it would help if you studied and learned what exactly the skeptics are skeptical about.

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 22, 2011 2:18 pm

Moderator/Anthony etal,
Make sure Congressman Ralph Hall gets a heads up on this.
He has people who know of your site and who work on his Science sub-committee.
http://www.ralphhall.house.gov/

Jon Orendorff
November 22, 2011 2:19 pm

It is simply amazing and pathetic how “science” mags like Discover and New Scientist just attempt to say nothing to see here, Dr. Mann is so unfairly attacked, he was exonerated etc. etc.

J Martin
November 22, 2011 2:19 pm

The use of the annoying ‘full stop’ (‘point’ in the US ?) instead of a ‘comma’ is a curious mismatch with as far as I can tell, near perfect English. And I am very fussy about the use and abuse of the English language.
The inclusion of the read.me file is a huge mistake. Even if PC plod spends most of his time filling in (out) overtime forms, not all of them are stupid. They will no doubt be asking themselves who had the time, contacts, money (?) and especially the motivation to be behind this.
It would be a loss to society if the people behind the email releases were stopped from continuing to benefit the tax payer in this manner. I would ask those who are behind the email releases to refrain from adding read.me files to any possible further releases of emails. Also, “remarks” I can handle, I do not approve of “redactions”, let us have the whole truth.
In addition, I appeal to the “FOIA.org” to give us ALL the emails. It is clear from your read.me that you do not have the resources to sift through all the emails. The World at large and the sceptic community and the people, and genuine scientists DO have the resources to sift through all 220,000 emails. Please release all the emails to us and the World.

Theo Goodwin
November 22, 2011 2:19 pm

Joe says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:19 pm
I’d like to see the log of rejected comments at RealClimate right now. Somehow they have only had 12 comments today on this story….
‘Bradley: “I’m sure you agree–the [Mike] Mann/ [Phil] Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year ‘reconstruction’.”’ [From the newly released emails.]
[Response: Again, people are free to make their own judgements on papers. This was in 2003 (discussing Mann and Jones (2003)). – gavin]
Gavin, you are making a childish attempt to deflect questions. We are Americans and know that we are free to judge papers. Your statement is a classic Red Herring Fallacy.
However, what is your comment on the truth of the statement by Bradley. That is what we want to know. I doubt that you will say that Bradley’s statement is true. Will you say that it should be taken seriously? If you say that it is false or irresponsible then please explain why you say that?

November 22, 2011 2:20 pm

Oh dear !…… ooh err !……. bless my soul ! We appear to have got ourselves in another fine mess…. Phil, can you come up with some new excuses?

DirkH
November 22, 2011 2:21 pm

Gaz says:
November 22, 2011 at 1:48 pm
“Maybe this will distract everyone from that pesky Berkely Earth Surface Temperature study. You know, the one that confirmed the results of the CRU, NASA, and all the other intrumental temperature records. Good luck with that.”
Gaz, none of the temperature products including BEST tell us why all the climate models failed to model the static temperatures of the last 10 years. The models are junk; THAT is your problem. With the models stands and falls CAGW.

November 22, 2011 2:22 pm

MikeEE says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:46 am
“Nations must invest $37 trillion in energy technologies by 2030 to stabilize
greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels.”
The US is $15 trillion in debt. How much debt does Europe have. So who is going to pay? The Chinese? I think their vastly overrated holdings won’t even dent that number.
=============================================================
Don’t worry, our ‘esteemed’ prime minister here in Australia will pick up the invoice … she’s already started us down the road of sovereign bankruptcy.

More Soylent Green!
November 22, 2011 2:23 pm

I’d like the “physicist” to explain
1) How the ice core data supports the “consensus” by showing that first it gets warm, then CO2 goes up — with an average of 800 years warming before the CO2 increases?
2) Where are the missing hot spots in the troposphere?
3) Where is the “missing” heat from the models? There is no data to show that the heat is in the ocean.

November 22, 2011 2:23 pm

Physicist:
You said, “A terrific example is the article in the November Notices of the American Mathematical Society, by Chen, Laane, Wheeler, and Zhang, titled “Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective.”
I read it. It certainly does not live up to your description. There is, for example, no assessment of the actual additional energy absorbed by increased CO2. In addition Figure 12 is to say the least gratuitous and fingernail on chalkboard discordant.

Atomic Hairdryer
November 22, 2011 2:26 pm

Re: Kaboom says: November 22, 2011 at 6:58 am

If the ZIP is all text it should be quite vulnerable to brute force cracking by using known information (i.e. email addresses, keywords/phrases) in it.

Unlikely. The files are encrypted with AES which is resistant to brute forcing and chosen plaintext attacks. Dictionary attack against the password/phrase might have more luck if that’s weak and some of the plaintext is known.
I’ve seen a few comments noting the use of “tranche” by some of the rapid rebuttal media. Given the Climategate v1 release hinted at more to come, the usual suspects may have planned ahead and prepared some rebuttals in advance. They would have had the full CRU archive to work from to identify the most potentially damaging/incriminating emails and prepare responses.

DocMartyn
November 22, 2011 2:28 pm

With regard to the ‘passphrase’, you don’t think that one of the phrases used in the preamble is the answer do you?
i.e. “Over 2.5 billion people live on less than $2 a day”
I can never remember passwords and use things I can readily access.

November 22, 2011 2:28 pm
November 22, 2011 2:30 pm

How is referring to one’s belief’s about AGW as “the cause” either sinister or funny?

NikFromNYC
November 22, 2011 2:32 pm

Instapundit linked to it over the afternoon hour. That’s how the original Climategate likely got the eventual attention of Limbaugh and Beck, in that order. I read all of the original ones and all the code too. Happy hunting gentlemen, I’ve been back to work for months now but it’s nice to see some news that will help deflate “the cause” that climatology represents as a threat to science itself.

NJmom77
November 22, 2011 2:33 pm

Is it time to hire a rowboat to rescue Santa? I’ll help pass the hat.
As a gardener, I see evidence of warming when I walk into my backyard. How much it is exacerbated by human activity is beyond my scope to say. I don’t want climate scientists of dubious agenda throwing out mandates before human impact is measured, but I would like some practical suggestions on how individuals might lessen their eco-footprints just in case it would make a positive difference. It’s a shame science has to be so political. Money talks more loudly than the truth.

November 22, 2011 2:33 pm

[waaaaayyyy off topic – save it for another thread please – Anthony]

J Martin
November 22, 2011 2:38 pm

Atomic Hairdyer said;
“I’ve seen a few comments noting the use of “tranche” by some of the rapid rebuttal media. Given the Climategate v1 release hinted at more to come, the usual suspects may have planned ahead and prepared some rebuttals in advance. They would have had the full CRU archive to work from to identify the most potentially damaging/incriminating emails and prepare responses.”
——————-
Very good point. All the more reason for the rest of the emails to be made public as soon as possible.

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 2:38 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:52 am
…..The history shows plainly that — much like America’s Founders — America’s scientists have been pretty much right-on-target for eighteen decades in a row … which oughtta be enough to convince even the folks in Missouri that the scientists most likely have got it right in the present decade too.
_______________________
What crap.
My husband is a physicist. Practically all of the lab equipment at his University was in non-working order. Some had been assembled incorrectly from the get go and other equipment had wires disconnected however YEARS of lab students “Did the experiments” and got results. This was confirmed by an older physicist (now teaching) from the same school married to a friend.
Dishonesty is just as prevalent among scientist as anyone else.

The Shadow Scholar: The man who writes your students’ papers tells his story
In the past year, I’ve written roughly 5,000 pages of scholarly literature, most on very tight deadlines. But you won’t find my name on a single paper.
I’ve written toward a master’s degree in cognitive psychology, a Ph.D. in sociology, and a handful of postgraduate credits in international diplomacy. I’ve worked on bachelor’s degrees in hospitality, business administration, and accounting. I’ve written for courses in history, cinema, labor relations, pharmacology, theology, sports management, maritime security, airline services, sustainability, municipal budgeting, marketing, philosophy, ethics, Eastern religion, postmodern architecture, anthropology, literature, and public administration. I’ve attended three dozen online universities. I’ve completed 12 graduate theses of 50 pages or more. All for someone else….. http://chronicle.com/article/article-content/125329

My husband rewrites physics papers into decent English and has to turn down 1/2 for lack of references or out right plagiarism.

Jason
November 22, 2011 2:40 pm

With regard to the ‘passphrase’, you don’t think that one of the phrases used in the preamble is the answer do you?
Im sure there are lots of people who have reached the same conclusion and are already trying to crack the password. Tell the hacker community, they love a challenge….

Michael Reed
November 22, 2011 2:42 pm

I find it telling that Michael Mann’s first published comments today re Climategate 2.0 are about defending the cause, not about defending the science. Go back and look at his comments after Climategate 1.0 — they proved to me that he is first and foremost an activist, not a scientist.

Jon P
November 22, 2011 2:46 pm

“How is referring to one’s belief’s about AGW as “the cause” either sinister or funny?”
Or scientific?

DirkH
November 22, 2011 2:46 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 2:04 pm
“This article offers a vivid time-line, clear physical explanations, powerful mathematical tools, and yes, it offers too precisely what DirkH is looking for: links to seminal observations and experiments that extent back in time to the dawn era of climate change science.”
Do you think condescension buys you anything here, loudmouth?

JimOfCP
November 22, 2011 2:46 pm

It has hit the Drudge Report … rip on, yon emails!

Barbara Munsey
November 22, 2011 2:49 pm

elmer says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:11 am
What do you guys think?
——————————–
“The Cause: Just when you thought it was safe to hide the decline”—hmm, “cause” rhymes with “Jaws”, which had as a tagline on one of its versions “just when you thought it was safe to go back in the ocean”…
I think this has great possibilities!

November 22, 2011 2:51 pm

This might be a good time to watch once again “The Great Global Warming Swindle”, a film made in 2010. All the greats are there; it really is worth just a snippet of your time.

cui bono
November 22, 2011 2:56 pm

The problem is that the guys at the University of East Anglia haven’t heard of ethics.
Which is odd as it’s only a few miles to the South of them.
(File under extremely poor British jokes).

Jason
November 22, 2011 2:57 pm

Email 4241:
Maybe Tom Melvin has it right: “Controversy about which bull caused
mess not relevent. The possibility that the results in all cases were heap of dung has been
missed by commentators.”

November 22, 2011 2:57 pm

Here we go again, round the merry-go-round. All the people who think it’s a giant conspiracy will yet again mindlessly regurgitate the cherry-picked quotes without a thought for where they came from or the context.
Just as last time “hide the decline” and “Mike’s nature trick” were touted as proof of scientific fraud when they referred to valid statistical methods (as vindicated by multiple independent inquiries), this will be the same. Watts, Delingpole (http://goo.gl/i3Sp9), Booker (http://goo.gl/Y5ioc), cranks like Alex Jones and the Fox News Network (who mislead about the most basic science: http://goo.gl/JYQOy and http://goo.gl/wB9w4), will go again into overdrive, mindlessly repeating quotes they can’t be bothered to check the proper meaning of.
This is tactics and politics. It’s not science. See here for a Climategate 1 debunking: http://goo.gl/bNFgC, http://goo.gl/bNFgC and http://goo.gl/0a54a as well as here: http://goo.gl/GJcd6
But it’s pointless even to put this comment up here; this site is a Church to those who repeat canards like that warming stopped in 1998 and that CO2 molecules are “perfectly spherical”. Past experience shows that scientific literacy amongst those who take these emails seriously is virtually non existent. (See Delingpole/Booker links above for a start.)

A Virtual Computer Sciencist.
November 22, 2011 3:00 pm

Climate Change Science???? Global Warming Science???? More like Chicken Little Science.
I have had the benefit of reading through much of the original ‘dumps’ and some of these emails through the colored lenses of both degrees in CSC and Physics (including graduate degrees emphasizing computer modeling and numerical methods and analysis). I can say with a fair degree of certainty that if the quality of my graduate work had dropped to the level of this bunch my committee would have thrown me out of the program. Making up data, suppressing data, etc… The graduate school would have probably had me expelled from the university.
Maybe a few degree granting institutions should take a look at revoking a few credentials and degrees. It has been done for less. De-fang these people before they can do more damage.

David Hewison
November 22, 2011 3:01 pm
Steve Jones
November 22, 2011 3:01 pm

Quick, get over to the BBC’s environment section, Richard Black is running a story about this that you are allowed to comment on.

November 22, 2011 3:01 pm

@ Barbara Munsey
Good point! must have been my subconscious at work.

November 22, 2011 3:03 pm

Just being reported on the BBCs flagship news programme ‘Newsnight’ with analysis.

Al Gored
November 22, 2011 3:08 pm

Here’s Richard Black’s spin blog on this, wishfully titled ‘Storm or Yawn”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15846886#dna-comments
The few comments so far indicate that his fog has failed to have its desired effect. Unless the BBC wants its credibility to be reduced to zero, they really ought to ship Black off to Greenpeace where he belongs.

Robuk
November 22, 2011 3:08 pm

BBC newsnight airs climategate 2.

John Whitman
November 22, 2011 3:09 pm

The climategate release 2.0 has following significant impacts from my perspective:
1. For the now well identified clique of climate scientists detailed further in climategate release 2.0 who have deliberately gamed the IPCC system, they have been effectively neutralized now. Their words are the reference for what the future of climate science must leave behind. They are known now to the broader scientific community to be beyond the pale of basic ethics of professional behavior and beyond the pale of simple scientific virtues. Now release 2.0 shows that there is nothing they can hide from the general public; the public is now even more vigilant of their activities.
2. In contrast to those IPCC gaming climate scientists, for other climate scientists that are now bringing balance to climate science this climategate 2.0 release makes their acceptance much easier. There is a lot of balancing needed given the past 20+ years of myopic IPCC centric alarming/concernist AGW by CO2 from fossil fuels.
3. For the historically unbalanced investigative journalists who adovated alarming/concernist AGW by CO2 from fossil fuels, the climategate release 2.0 gives an opportunity to start some digging. Carpe diem.
John

Manfred
November 22, 2011 3:09 pm

Michael Mann
“I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his thusfar unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.Perhaps the same needs to be done w/ this Keenan guy.
I believe that the only way to stop these people is by exposing them and discrediting them….”
—————
So is this what he has in mind when talking about improving communications with the public ?

Latitude
November 22, 2011 3:10 pm

luke whined: “This is tactics and politics. It’s not science”
..study at the feet of the master

brc
November 22, 2011 3:11 pm

By the look of the readme.txt, the use of the . in the 20.000 instead of 20,000 would indicate a European person behind the release. That said, they use 2.5 billion, so that could be a red herring.
As a side note, everyone here should pause and note that, was the SOPA law currently active, it would be possible for a determined government to shut down WattsUpWithThat for hosting and/or spreading what could be considered copyrighted material. The proposed law is broad enough that a determined government could activate it in a situation like this. Activating it would mean revoking the DNS entries for this site, in a guilt-first, establish innocence later action.
Anyone in the US needs to pause and think about that, then get onto their local representative and ask that they not back the SOPA law. If you don’t know what that is, google SOPA now.

David M. Brooks
November 22, 2011 3:11 pm

My recollection is that after the original Climategage emails were released, the CRU said that they were taken “out of context” and were going to do a full release of their own so everything would be in context.

November 22, 2011 3:13 pm

Ecotretas says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:39 am
… No new emails from 2010 & 2011
==========================
and the reason is :
“Jones: I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process.”

RockyRoad
November 22, 2011 3:15 pm

Gaz says:
November 22, 2011 at 1:48 pm

Maybe this will distract everyone from that pesky Berkely Earth Surface Temperature study. You know, the one that confirmed the results of the CRU, NASA, and all the other intrumental temperature records. Good luck with that.

I think today is one of the luckiest days of my life, and I also hope the earth continues to warm up out of the Little Ice Age. That people like Mann and Jones are using that natural warming to spoof people and ride on the coattails of dubious interpretation (i.e., man is the cause) for money and fame shows just how dishonest they are.
Now, do you have irrefutable proof that people are the cause of the warming, or is this another deceptive piece of drivel you’ve written?

November 22, 2011 3:16 pm

Three of the 5000+ emails are by me. (I of course forgot to write down the numbers.) These three are genuine.

November 22, 2011 3:23 pm

“Or scientific?”
Huh? The emails are tangential to their science. How is that a surprise? cause for alarm?
The email reveal the scientists debating the issues among themselves. Damning their enemies. Gossiping. Oh, no! Human beings! Alert the media!

Jeremy
November 22, 2011 3:27 pm

Luke Scientiae all you hot air sounded great but you would have been better served if you had not made boldface lies
Luke Scientiae states, “Just as last time “hide the decline” and “Mike’s nature trick” were touted as proof of scientific fraud when they referred to valid statistical methods’
These methods are ABSOLUTELY NOT “valid statistical methods”, furthermore the emails implicate the “hockey team” because they openly admit that they are hiding something by using a trick. Therefore we know that these INVALID statistical methods were used DELIBERATELY and NOT due to incompetence.

Robert of Ottawa
November 22, 2011 3:28 pm

Nathony gets a mention in 0600.txt:
P.S. We are getting blogged all over for a cover-up of poor global station and US stations
we use. They claim NCDC is in a scandal by not providing observer’s addresses. In any
case Anthony Watts has photographed about 350 stations and finds using our criteria that
about 15% are acceptable. I am trying to get some our folks to develop a method to switch
over to using the CRN sites, at least in the USA.
Phil Jones said the following on 9/11/2007 9:51 AM

Myrrh
November 22, 2011 3:31 pm

Gail Combs says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:41 pm
elmer says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:47 am
What is the catch phrase for my next video? Is their anything as quotable as “Hide the Decline”?
_______________________
Thank you for the “Hide the Decline” video, I loved it.
…………………………….
ditto, for the video.
Early days for the next catch phrase as the emails are gone through, ‘the Cause’ gave me pause for a laugh re Judith Curry not playing.
Here: Mann: I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she think’s she’s
doing, but its not helping the cause
But – in going back to fetch that….
Jones: I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the
process
How about, ‘delete all the emails’? 🙂

davidmhoffer
November 22, 2011 3:31 pm

Luke Scientiae says:
But it’s pointless even to put this comment up here; this site is a Church to those who repeat canards like that warming stopped in 1998 and that CO2 molecules are “perfectly spherical”. >>>
1. If it is pointless, why did you bother?
2. If this is a “church” then it is a church chalk full of heretics. Even the science that disputes the AGW thoery gets shredded on this site if there is the tiniest of flaws in it. Try that at RealClimate. you know the one, the one referred to in the ClimateGate 2.0 emails as a PR site?
3. Warming didn’t stop in the mid 90’s? so you are saying that HadCrut, GISS, RSS and UAH are all wrong? Because that is what THEY show.
4. I challenge you top provide a link to any thread on this site where the suggestion that CO2 molecules are perfectly spherical was made and allowed to stand.
My hat is off to you though. that’s a lot of disinformation in just two lines.

Editor
November 22, 2011 3:33 pm

The time lines seem to be:
WUWT November 22, 2011 at 1:02 am (California = 9:02 GMT)
Climate Audit Nov 22, 2011 at 4:09 AM | Permalink (Canada, Eastern = 09:09 GMT)
Tallbloke’s November 22, 2011 at 9:28 am (GMT)
DITC November 22, 2011 at 9:44 am (GMT)
The Air Vent November 22, 2011 at 5:08 am (Michigan = 10:08 GMT)
JoNova November 22, 2011 at 7:08 pm (Perth = 11:08 Aust EST = 09:08 GMT)
Anyone know of any other blogs on which the link was posted?

Robert of Ottawa
November 22, 2011 3:35 pm

#1577 from Phil jones
Any work we have done in the past
is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden. I’ve
discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are
happy about not releasing the original station data.

So why must your funding source be well hidden? Perhaps the US Congress might like to ask you that questio, Phil..

Shevva
November 22, 2011 3:36 pm

One thing I take from these e-mails at this early stage is that Global Warming, Cliamte Change, Climate Disruption can now be known as it is called by the scientists at the heart of it – ‘The Cause’.
If it’s an enviromental or political cause I guess is in the belief of the believer in ‘The Cause’.

RockyRoad
November 22, 2011 3:37 pm

Luke Scientiae says:
November 22, 2011 at 2:57 pm


But it’s pointless even to put this comment up here; this site is a Church to those who repeat canards like that warming stopped in 1998 and that CO2 molecules are “perfectly spherical”. Past experience shows that scientific literacy amongst those who take these emails seriously is virtually non existent. (See Delingpole/Booker links above for a start.)

So are you here to do more damage control, Luke? If this latest revelation were a non-starter, you wouldn’t even bother to stop by. And what you have said is cause for even more damage control.
For you say the “scientific literacy amongst those who take these emails serious is virtually non existent” and I’d have to agree with your wholeheartedly.
You do realize these emails were meant for Phil Jones, Michael Mann, Ken Briffa, and all the other “scientists” on “The Team” You’re absolutely correct when you say “Past experience shows that scientific literacy amongst those who take these email seriously is virtually non existent.”
Yes, you are absolutely correct, Luke. (I love to push people’s noses into their own words.)
(Even Mann has said of his email correspondence while at the UVa that he was the only one who could understand it. And that’s a big, big concern to everybody that wants to know how he comes to the conclusions that he does. And the same can be said for “Can’t Find My Data or Methodology” Phil Jones. Of course, even if he could find it, he’d be damned before he’d share it like any real scientist would.)

petermue
November 22, 2011 3:38 pm

TheGoodLocust says:
November 22, 2011 at 2:07 pm
Oh fun, I goaded Gavin into a response.

Of course, he doesn’t actually respond to the question. Just claims “out of context” and attacks to distract from why Mann thinks Gavin is good at discrediting people.

Yeah, I read it.
Why don’t you insist inviting him to put it *into* context?
I’m very anxious about his reply, because my post has been censored.

David Hewison
November 22, 2011 3:38 pm
David Hewison
November 22, 2011 3:39 pm

Oops.. that was GMT+11

You Guys are unreal
November 22, 2011 3:39 pm

“The Cause” = the cause of getting the world to sit up and take notice of the warming, future warming and detrimental effects thereof. Nothing sinister.
Instead of picking emails to bits, surely all the ‘skeptic’ side have to do is come up with evidence disproving the warming…

Red Jeff
November 22, 2011 3:41 pm

Red Jeff @ 3:06 Password is a hoax…. sorry for the misinformation, learned my lesson!

petermue
November 22, 2011 3:42 pm

Michael Mann
“I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his thusfar unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.Perhaps the same needs to be done w/ this Keenan guy.
I believe that the only way to stop these people is by exposing them and discrediting them….”

Obviously this is how modern “real climate science” works….
/sarc

fp
November 22, 2011 3:43 pm

That password did not work for me, Red Jeff.

banjo
November 22, 2011 3:47 pm

The bbc were frantically `on message` straight away.
Mentioned skeptics, didn`t talk to any, but unsuprisingly found time to talk to mr mann.
Anyone suprised?

Robert of Ottawa
November 22, 2011 3:48 pm

Rocky Road, in a matter such as this, you cannot have irrefutable proof that people are the cause of the warming.
You must first demonstrate that there is warming and then that the warming is not natural (how you ever could do that is beyond me – it’s called the NULL hypothesis); further you must positively show that this warming is caused by man … rathern, than, say, the phases of the moon or Jinns.

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 3:49 pm

Jeffrey Davis says:
November 22, 2011 at 2:30 pm
How is referring to one’s belief’s about AGW as “the cause” either sinister or funny?
___________________________
“Beliefs” and “Causes” belong to religion and politics they have absolutely no place in science because it leads to “Confirmation Bias”
In quality control we had a word for it called “flinching” If you plot the Analytical results for a year’s worth of production you sometimes find a bell curve with a spike at the Accept/Reject limits just within the “good to go” value and few or no data just outside the “Good” limit. That is a special case of confirmation bias.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
Unfortunately ASQ doesn’t have a simple on line definition http://asq.org/qic/display-item/?item=4850
http://books.google.com/books?id=Ryv1EGIkAaYC&pg=PA70&lpg=PA70&dq=%22flinching%22+%22Quality+control%22&source=bl&ots=CpVamjwNQb&sig=7yHwYznBJsOB5IELnZHKrCSmWj8&hl=en&ei=2zPMTuPFD9HAtgfh3dyfAQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&ved=0CDwQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q&f=false

November 22, 2011 3:50 pm

OK, as with CG1, I’ve put the unzipped CG2 files at
http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/2/FOIA
You can browse through (e.g.) the ‘mail/’ directory, link to individual emails (e.g. http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/2/FOIA/mail/0477.txt — example chosen at random).
Not sure yet whether a repeat analysis is called for — we now know what to expect from these jokers.
john

Power Grab
November 22, 2011 3:51 pm

IMHO, and as the parent of a teenager who makes impressive scores on the practice ACT and has been college-bound since learning how to read, the reason the Penn State president was sacked over the Sandusky scandal is that the regents knew their constituency would be thinking, “No way I’m sending MY KID (or my money!) to that hotbed of immorality! At least, not when there’s the possibility of misbehavior being broadcast for all to see!” On the other hand, with the Mann whitewashing, they may well have thought, “Maybe I should send my kid to Penn State because their a$$-covering machine is fully operational. It’s obviously Who You Know that matters there!”

Mac the Knife
November 22, 2011 3:52 pm

elmer says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:11 am
“What do you guys think?
http://www.minnesotansforglobalwarming.com/m4gw/assets_c/2011/11/Hide-the-Decline-2-The-Cause-755.html
Love It !!!!

Clive
November 22, 2011 3:54 pm

Totally trite comment in these interesting times …
“the emails from my CMA mail boxes ”
Wow, these climate guys have a “Cover My A$$” email folder. How telling! ☺

Power Grab
November 22, 2011 3:55 pm

Re A Physicist’s use of the term “fishers” –
Meh…that’s wordsmith talk if I ever heard it. None of them good ol’ boys down at the bait shop talk thataway!

John from CA
November 22, 2011 3:59 pm

Huff Post mention:
Fresh round of hacked climate science emails leaked online
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/22/fresh-hacked-climate-science-emails?CMP=twt_gu
“In the new release a 173MB zip file called “FOIA2011” containing more than 5,000 new emails, was made available to download on a Russian server called Sinwt.ru today. An anonymous entity calling themselves “FOIA” then posted a link to the file on at least four blogs popular with climate sceptics – Watts Up With That, Climate Audit, TallBloke and The Air Vent. The same tactic was used in 2009 when the first 160MB batch of emails were released after being obtained – possibly illegally – from servers based at the University of East Anglia, where a number of the climate scientists involved were based.”
Note: Watts Up With That, Climate Audit, TallBloke and The Air Vent are links.

Ron
November 22, 2011 3:59 pm

This new email trove could not possibly have been a surprise to those who wrote them? SOME emails they wrote were publicized two years ago. At the time, did they foolishly think, ‘whew, they didn’t get them all’? Either that or this is the day they’ve all suspected and dreaded would come eventually.

hotrod (Larry L)
November 22, 2011 4:01 pm

I have been watching this develop all day, (as much time as I can spare from work) what a wonderful Thanks Giving this will be!
Personally, I suspect that the strategy is to put that content out there with a password and let 10,000 geeks bang on the password. I strongly suspect the encryption will not survive such a brute force assault for long. Like the The RSA Laboratories Secret-Key Challenges, someone will crack it sooner or later, and once the password is leaked to the web it will all be out there. It will be interesting to see if the password is an obvious easy to crack password or something that makes the geeks sweat a little. 😉
Gentlemen (used loosely) your time clock is ticking, I would start edging toward the door if I were in your shoes.
Larry

tania820
November 22, 2011 4:02 pm

date: Wed, 29 Jul 2009 11:57:34 -0400
from: Michael Mann
subject: Re: ENSO blamed over warming – paper in JGR
to: Phil Jones
HI Phil,
re Grant, great–I agree he’ll need to reduce the number of figures and focus on the key
points. Jim has already drafted something on ENSO/temp relationships and I made a few
comments, once we have a revised version of that can send on to you for further
comment/addition/revision etc.
thanks for the update re CA–caught a hint of this latest fuss in a comment that came in at
RC (which we deleted from the queue). Sounds like they’re moving from person to person,
first harassed Ben earlier this year, now you, who knows who is next. I’ve been trying to
no avail to get some journalist to look into their funding, industry connections, etc. they
need to be exposed–badly!
by the way, are you going to the paleo meeting being hosted by Gabi and crew in Edinburgh
next summer (July 12-13 I believe)? If not, perhaps I can schedule a short visit at CRU to
see you, Keith, and the gang either before or after, once I know schedule…
mike
Does Mann spend his days cooking data and trying to expose his critics? Can Penn State continue to afford this nonsense?

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 4:03 pm

My hubby, who knows a bit about the Chinese language, noted that in the top Climategate 2 e-mail quoted here on WUWT, from someone named Qingxiang, there is a reference to “Prof. Ren.” He says it is possible that “Prof. Ren” is a mistranslation of Prof. Mann’s name into Chinese (where the character 人 means man and is pronounced ren) and then back into English.
It’s not easy to understand things out of context, but it is possible.

Ron
November 22, 2011 4:06 pm

I mean, Mann’s response to the Guardian was rather full of prepared invective, I thought.

charles nelson
November 22, 2011 4:06 pm

A ’cause’ by its very nature requires ‘Martyrs’…I wonder if they truly, truly believe in it?
Looking forward to see someone getting burnt at the stake (figuratively).

November 22, 2011 4:06 pm

I don’t know. I’m away for one day and all hell breaks loose in the Climasphere! Now I’m going to be up all night reading blogs and emails. At least my sleepless night will be through choice. Not worry. 🙂

November 22, 2011 4:11 pm

A physicist says: November 22, 2011 at 11:52 am
…The history shows plainly that … America’s scientists have been pretty much right-on-target for eighteen decades in a row… which oughtta be enough to convince even the folks in Missouri that the scientists most likely have got it right in the present decade too.

well that’s a shockingly non-scientific statement. Have you never understood the motto of the Royal Society “Nullius In Verba”? It means that whether you like it or not, you have to do your own research, your own spot checks, think for yourself, use commonsense, look for mistakes, and don’t let up. Ever.
Also, it’s unscientific to take this thread out of context. Click my name to read the story that is the real context, not just mine but also that of a lot of us here. Of course we are whooping on this thread. There is time for celebration and time for the science.
A physicist says: November 22, 2011 at 12:55 pm
It’s fair to say, however, that the folks who understand the mathematics of climate change science are overwhelmingly more likely to be convinced by the data than folks who lack that grounding; that’s why rational climate-change skepticism absolutely requires a solid grounding in mathematics.

Indeed. That person has full answers to all challenges to his mathematics, as I have checked. His challengers will not tell you this, but a thorough search will. Nullius In Verba. Do thou likewise.

Lance of BC
November 22, 2011 4:12 pm

physicis(bo)t,
“slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, or witch-hunting” beep wer beep beep!
“slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, or witch-hunting” beep beep wiz beep!
“slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, or witch-hunting” Oh my!
Lions and tigers and bears! Oh my!
Just when i thought it couldn’t get any stranger?!
…. and could it be the over use of popcorn causing AGW?!
Where’s my grant? Hehehe!

AdderW
November 22, 2011 4:13 pm

“Help the cause”, would be great to spoof!

November 22, 2011 4:13 pm

I find it interesting when Mann decides he wants to discredit McIntyre he injects the name of his friend Gavin as one who would know how to to do such a deed. That can only mean he thinks Gavin is capable of this type of criminal behavoir. I hope McIntyre has the guts to sue and then maybe we can really find out what these characters were up to.

Julian Williams in Wales
November 22, 2011 4:15 pm

Maybe the passphrase is so complex to be uncrackable; is that possible? Surely after having sat on this material for two years FOIA would have made a decision how he is going to play this, and it just makes no sense to put most of the material behind a crackable passphrase.
But supposing he then sent the passphrase to Phil Jones and M Mann with a threat; Resign now, get the hell out, otherwise this passphrase goes online to the general public. That is a strategy that might push FOIA’s enemies out without completely disgracing the “scientific community”
Just another way of looking at what might motivate FOIA.

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 4:16 pm

Christopher Hanley says:
November 22, 2011 at 1:44 pm
As they come to the home stretch it’s “slogan-shouting” in the lead (26), closely followed by “cherry-picking” (25), with “witch-hunting” struggling in third (23).
____________________
HMMMmmm, good Idea for name for my lambs this coming spring. I can use Jones, Mann, Briffia et al for the ram lambs I am planning to put in the freezer.

Christopher Hanley
November 22, 2011 4:16 pm

You Guys are unreal says:
November 22, 2011 at 3:39 pm
“The Cause” = the cause of getting the world to sit up and take notice of the warming, future warming and detrimental effects thereof. Nothing sinister.
Instead of picking emails to bits, surely all the ‘skeptic’ side have to do is come up with evidence disproving the warming…
================================
Who’s trying to disprove warming?
How do you take notice of “future warming”?
Begging the question is a logical fallacy, look it up:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question#Related_fallacies

John
November 22, 2011 4:19 pm

I don’t understand how you guys can justify posting links to someone’s information, which was obtained illegally. This is blatant support for illegal hacking, you know, like posting cop’s social security numbers, or putting porn on Facebook, or any of the other things that I’m sure at least one of you have (rightly) condemned. Just because your cause might be bolstered doesn’t make it all right to do this.

November 22, 2011 4:19 pm

Oh bore me some more would you?!
Go read some emails that tell you what? Gossip, that is ALL I’ll bet.
Like last time, or do some of you STILL believe some great secret was uncovered then too?
I suppose this is pointless but I really will feel better for at least having told you lot how Dumb you are heh.
So now you can attack me and jump on the bandwagon to attack Luke too, he is the only one person bothered enough to set out a great list of links for you … silly man, trying to convert the religious!
Have fun reading those emails folks 😉

Anon
November 22, 2011 4:26 pm

Junk Scientist Michael Mann says, “truly pathetic,” at http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/11/22/climategate-20-more-emails-leaked-from-climate-researchers/
Mike, CORRECT!!!

pat
November 22, 2011 4:31 pm

very bad timing for Romm:
22 Nov: Economist: Carbon control
This house believes that climate-control policies cannot rely on carbon capture and storage
Join this Live Debate
Defending the motion: Joseph Romm
Opening Remarks: Joseph Romm
Any debate over climate policies must begin with the scope of the problem and solution…
Needless to say, anything close to 6°C warming this century would probably mean suffering beyond imagination for billions:
• devastating heat waves, floods and other extreme events;
• myriad direct health impacts;
• dust-bowl conditions over much of the arable and heavily populated regions around the globe;
• sea-level rise of around 1 foot by 2050, then 4-6 feet (or more) by 2100, rising some 6-12 inches (or more) each decade thereafter;
• massive species loss on land and sea—perhaps 50% or more of all biodiversity;
• food insecurity—the increasingly difficulty task of feeding 7 billion, then 8 billion, then 9 billion people in a world with an ever-worsening climate.
Most of these will be happening simultaneously and getting worse decade after decade. Equally tragic, a 2009 study found that the worst impacts would be ““largely irreversible for 1,000 years.”..
http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/781

Latitude
November 22, 2011 4:31 pm

Gail Combs says:
November 22, 2011 at 4:03 pm
My hubby, who knows a bit about the Chinese language, noted that in the top Climategate 2 e-mail quoted here on WUWT, from someone named Qingxiang, there is a reference to “Prof. Ren.” He says it is possible that “Prof. Ren” is a mistranslation of Prof. Mann’s name into Chinese (where the character 人 means man and is pronounced ren) and then back into English.
It’s not easy to understand things out of context, but it is possible
====================================
Tell him ‘good catch’, Gail…….

G. Karst
November 22, 2011 4:35 pm

What was the phrase used by the original climategate leaker? I think it was something like:
“A miracle has happened”
Anybody else remember it exactly? That’s the passphrase, I reckon. I don’t have the zip file so I can’t try it. GK

Bigred (Victoria, Australia)
November 22, 2011 4:36 pm

Nobel Prize for this Leaker.

Konrad
November 22, 2011 4:37 pm

WUWT 5th birthday and a Climategate Christmas 2.0 together!
In keeping with the seasonal theme, Tallbloke has unwrapped this gem from Kevin “travesty” Trenberth over at the Talkshop –
date: Fri, 14 Dec 2007 08:58:09 -0700
from: Kevin Trenberth
subject: The first Nobel and other Christmas greetings
to: IPCC-group
Seasons greetings to you all, my fellow Nobel Laureates (even if we did not get to go to
Oslo).
I just want to wish you and your families all the best for the holiday season, and Merry
Christmas to those of you who celebrate that festival. As part of IPCC we have achieved
something to be proud of. Thankyou for being a part of it with me.
At NCAR at the Christmas party a group made up a song that mentions by name all the NCAR
LAs in AR4. The song is below. You may appreciate it. (or not).
All the best for 2008.
Kevin
Sung to tune of The first Noel
Our First Nobel
Our First Nobel, for the IPCC,
Goes to Beth, Bette, Bill, Jerry, Kathy and Guy.
Kevin, Linda, Paty, Re-to and so many more,
And we’re sharing the honor with Mister Al Gore.
Nobel, Nobel, a story to tell,
We hope our coworkers’ egos don’t swell.
The First Working Group said to sound the alarm,
Rising CO2 levels are causing great harm.
Temperatures and greenhouse gas are racing up neck and neck,
Soon the whole Earth will be hotter than heck.
Nobel, Nobel, the planet’s unwell,
This is the future the models foretell.
The Second Working Group said that change is assured,
>From the melting of glaciers to migration of birds.
>From loss of land and crops to habitats,
How can they make it much clearer than that?
Nobel, Nobel, the oceans swell,
Polar bears search for new places to dwell.
We must work to mitigate, tells us Working Group Three,
Change from fossil consumption to clean energy.
If we all do our share in reversing the trend,
Our children might have a clean Earth in the end.
Nobel, Nobel, sound the warning bell,
Let’s make a future where all can live well.
Nobel, Nobel, we are stars for a day,
Can an Oscar be far away?

****************
Kevin E. Trenberth
0462

Mooloo
November 22, 2011 4:38 pm

It’s fair to say, however, that the folks who understand the mathematics of climate change science are overwhelmingly more likely to be convinced by the data than folks who lack that grounding; that’s why rational climate-change skepticism absolutely requires a solid grounding in mathematics.
Could you enlighten us with the Maths background of Mann, Jones, Briffa etc? How many of “the Team” are statisticians?
Statistics is one of their weakest points, leading to bogus hockey sticks, whole Antarctic warming from one peninsular etc. Sceptics with real Maths continue to catch them out.
The Team have no particular training nor skill in Maths. In fact I would suggest they have the Dunning-Kruger effect in operation very strongly.

Kev-in-Uk
November 22, 2011 4:41 pm

Paul-H says:
November 22, 2011 at 4:19
you flatter yourself greatly.
you’re not worth the effort!

Jay Curtis
November 22, 2011 4:44 pm

This new round of emails, damning as it is, reveals nothing more about the writers than what most people of good conscience hadn’t already realized from the first round. Unfortunately, Not only has the pursuit of truth been abandoned by some in the scientific community but by many more in the journalism community. The edifice is crumbling, but it will still take awhile to bring it all the way to the ground.

Robert of Ottawa
November 22, 2011 4:47 pm

Do I notice a concerted counter-attack by damge controlls?
I bet Gavin & Co. are not going to get any sleep tonight.

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 4:48 pm

NJmom77 says:
November 22, 2011 at 2:33 pm
Is it time to hire a rowboat to rescue Santa? I’ll help pass the hat.
As a gardener, I see evidence of warming when I walk into my backyard. How much it is exacerbated by human activity is beyond my scope to say. I don’t want climate scientists of dubious agenda throwing out mandates before human impact is measured, but I would like some practical suggestions on how individuals might lessen their eco-footprints just in case it would make a positive difference. It’s a shame science has to be so political. Money talks more loudly than the truth.
___________________________
Try looking into Thorium Nuclear. It is completely different that Uranium. China and India are working on commercial applications. So is the USA and Japan. The USA originally looked at it decades ago for a nuclear powered Aircraft, so it has promise for ships, possibly trains and small reactors for remote locations.
My collection of info (some are older and the engineering is rapidly changing)
http://news.change.org/stories/thorium-nuclear-energys-clean-little-secret
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/default.aspx?id=448&terms=thorium
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf62.html
http://pubs.acs.org/cen/email/html/8746sci2.html
http://thoriumenergy.blogspot.com/2006/05/chronology-of-nuclear-history-with.html
http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=187:thorium-as-a-secure-nuclear-fuel-alternative&catid=94:0409content&Itemid=342
Overview of world Nuclear: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf33.html

Barbara Munsey
November 22, 2011 4:50 pm

elmer says:
November 22, 2011 at 3:01 pm
@ Barbara Munsey
Good point! must have been my subconscious at work.
——————–
I bet some of them (Mann, Jones, etc) must feel like this is currently the soundtrack to their lives:

If they don’t, they SHOULD.

Steve C
November 22, 2011 4:51 pm

Harumph! Middle of the night, quick last look at WUWT and I come across this! I shall have to “redact” what I feel about losing sleep waiting for the d/l to finish. The story continues, evidently … Good! Can’t wait.

timg56
November 22, 2011 4:52 pm

RockyRoad,
I’ll refrain from casting aspersions at A Physicist, but I’ll back up your point regarding the inaccuracy of his statements regarding …
… That’s the practical reason why CEOs, military strategists, farmers, fishers, and hunters, not to mention most mathematicians, scientists, and engineers, are rejecting the peculiar brand of skepticism that is increasingly practiced here on Watt’s Up With That. …
I have three degrees, two of which are graduate science degrees and have worked mostly in technical and engineering fields. The majority of people I know with engineering or science degrees hold sceptical opinions of at least some aspects of the “climate change” debate. Like you, my personal experience is directly at odds with what he is claiming. And while that doesn’t mean he is wrong, it does cause me to believe he most likely is.

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 4:55 pm

cui bono says:
November 22, 2011 at 2:56 pm
The problem is that the guys at the University of East Anglia haven’t heard of ethics.
Which is odd as it’s only a few miles to the South of them.
(File under extremely poor British jokes).
_________________
That is OK, Mass, where I used to live has wonderful town names. Governor Endicott Peabody had several towns named after him like Endicott, Peabody, Athol, Marblehead and of course Grafton. (File under extremely poor Taxachusetts jokes).

wayne
November 22, 2011 4:57 pm

At least we have an idea how the UHI was wiped. Dishonesty.

Pamela Gray
November 22, 2011 4:59 pm

Out of the mouths of naive scientists comes the new title for climate change: “Climate Change CAUSE”! Skeptics can not compete with these guys for pregnant vocabulary. Which seems fair that climate scientists get to win at something.
On a related note, you don’t suppose that Judith will become the sleeping giant now aroused from her make-peace-not-war slumber by the slurs hurled her way?

A physicist
November 22, 2011 4:59 pm

Dave Wendt says:

A physicist says: “A terrific example is the article in the November Notices of the American Mathematical Society, by Chen, Laane, Wheeler, and Zhang, titled ‘Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective.’”

Just found your cite. In the first paragraph came upon this” ”The molecules of these gases trap heat in the form of infrared radiation, causing the atmospheric temperature to rise. But which molecules are the greenhouse gases, and just how do they trap heat?”

Not a hopeful start.Take courage & read further, Dave … the plot thickens! 🙂
Seriously, a very complete, free-as-in-freedom, follow-on compendium is Spencer Weart’s on-line “Discovery of Global Warming — A History”, which is hosted by the American Institute of Physics (AIP).
If more folks appreciated that rational skepticism of climate change begins with an appreciation of the mathematical foundations, then the level of pointless slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting here on Watts Up With That (and many other skeptical sites) would sensibly diminish.
Rational skepticism accepts too that sometimes the math tells us what we don’t want to hear. As the navigator (James Earl Jones?) famously says in Kubrik’s Dr. Strangelove:

“I’m sorry sir; those are the numbers.”

tallbloke
November 22, 2011 5:00 pm

Red Jeff says:
November 22, 2011 at 3:06 pm
Someone is claiming to have cracked the password protected emails….. this is the (supposed) password.
4x00y312dym!231@4

Nope…. try again.

AndyG55
November 22, 2011 5:02 pm

I wonder what’s in those other emails, behind the password.
A very interesting ploy !
Is it a bluff ?
It is devastating to the AGW bretheren?
I really hope the bretheren are EXTREMELY worried about the password being released.

Jimmy Haigh
November 22, 2011 5:02 pm

No. 4194. “£27 million…”
date: Fri Feb 2 22:22:25 2001
from: Mike Hulme
subject: C Trust
to: berkhout
Frans,
We had a very constructive meeting today with the C Trust team from DETR. The Trust is very keen to work with Tyndall in a number of areas. In effect there is £27m to be allocated by the Trust during 2001/02 on projects/initiatives that take forward the de-carbonisation mission and they are clearly looking for good ideas to support.”

eyesonu
November 22, 2011 5:07 pm

WUWT certain to hit 100,000,000 (one hundred million) views this calendar year and now maybe before Dec 7. Would have been nice for the fifth anniversary. It’s rock and roll time again. Another fifth for the anniversary?

Robert of Ottawa
November 22, 2011 5:10 pm

AndyG55, maybe you should view this to provide some answers

R. de Haan
November 22, 2011 5:11 pm

Department of Energy involved in hiding temperature data (and financing the fraudsters)
http://junkscience.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0-department-of-energy-involved-in-hiding-temperature-data/

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 5:15 pm

Robert of Ottawa says:
November 22, 2011 at 3:35 pm
#1577 from Phil jones
“Any work we have done in the past
is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden. I’ve
discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are
happy about not releasing the original station data”

So why must your funding source be well hidden? Perhaps the US Congress might like to ask you that questio, Phil..
___________
THAT climate e-mail is certainly one to send to all our Congress Critters asking what the heck is going on and WHAT is DOE trying to hide. ESPECIALLY after the Obama/DOE grant bomb that was dropped a short time ago.
Time to make the politicians squirm.

November 22, 2011 5:19 pm

G. Karst says: November 22, 2011 at 4:35 pm
What was the phrase used by the original climategate leaker?…

A miracle just happened at CA
At tAV,

We feel that climate science is, in the current situation, too important to be kept under wraps.
We hereby release a random selection of correspondence, code, and documents.
Hopefully it will give some insight into the science and the people behind it.

davidmhoffer
November 22, 2011 5:23 pm

Ooooh this FOIA guy is a sly one. I think I just figured out his game.
Question: Who is sweating bullets right now trying to figure out what else is in those encrypted files and how bad it might be?
Answer: The Team
Question: How do you systematically break an encryption key?
Answer: A brute force attack which requires…supercomputers.
Question: Who has lotsa supercomputers at their disposal?
Answer: The Team
I’m betting the WE are going to be up all night reading the dirty slimeballs’ emails and mocking the feeble attempts of trolls to defend them. THEY are going to be up all night trying to break that encryption key.
I wonder if it actually is more emails? Or just an obscene taunt?

Marcus
November 22, 2011 5:26 pm

This is hilarious.
date: Mon, 8 Dec 2008 19:49:18 -0000 (GMT)
from: “Tim Osborn”
subject: RE: FW: FOI_08-50 ; EIR_08-01
to: “Jones Philip Prof”
Hi Phil!
re. your email to Dave Palmer [which he copied in his response to you and
cc’d to me, Keith & Michael McGarvie, and which has hence already been
multiply copied within the UEA system, and therefore will probably exist
for a number of months and possibly years, and could be released under FOI
if a request is made for it during that time!]… I assume that you didn’t
delete any emails that David Holland has requested (because that would be
illegal) but that instead his request merely prompted you to do a spring
clean of various other emails that hadn’t been requested, as part of your
regular routine of deleting old emails. If that is what you meant, then
it might be a good idea to clarify your previous email to Dave Palmer, to
avoid it being misunderstood. 🙂
The way things seem to be going, I think it best if we discuss all FOI,
EIR, Data Protection requests in person wherever possible, rather than via
email. It’s such a shame that the skeptics’ vexatious use of this
legislation may prevent us from using such an efficient modern technology
as email, but it seems that if we want to have confidential discussions
then we may need to avoid it.
I shall delete this email and those related to it as part of my regular
routine of deleting old emails!
Cheers
Tim

pat
November 22, 2011 5:31 pm

will this mean no more solar ads on every youtube u open?
will this mean no more manipulation of search results to favour CAGW?
22 Nov: Reuters: Alexei Oreskovic: Google quits plans to make cheap renewable energy
* Says other institutions better placed to carry on effort
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/google-idUSN1E7AL1X520111123

November 22, 2011 5:32 pm

davidmhoffer says November 22, 2011 at 5:23 pm

Question: Who has lotsa supercomputers at their disposal?
Answer: The Team

Rich, truly rich …
.

Pamela Gray
November 22, 2011 5:32 pm

This is way better than Thanksgiving day football. Problem is, I will be in a location that has NO internet access other than what I get on my smartphone. Which I am thinking of putting on an intravenous mobile tree with a very long cord plugged into the outlet.

richard verney
November 22, 2011 5:34 pm

Some suggest that a foreign government such as China or Russia is behind the hacking. If so, what do they stand to gain from the release of this info?
For example, China has done very nicely from the cAWG meme. Lots of industries/jobs have been outsourced from the developed countries to China so that the developed countries can meet emission/red tape targets and China’s foreign earnings have increased dramatically because of this. China is playing a key role in the manufacture of windmills and to some extent solar panels and is benefitting from trading back these products to the West, again to the benefit of China’s economic development and wealth.
It cannot be in China’s interest to see the developed countries in the West suddenly pull out of the cAGW meme and thereby allow those developed countriues invest in cheap energy and keep ‘polluting’ industries in the West.
It seems more likely to me that the source of this info is from someone who is trying to save the developed countries in the West. If so, they are an unsung hero.

Wayne Delbeke
November 22, 2011 5:34 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am and everyone understands too that this slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting has become utterly irrelevant to the serious concerns of America’s mathematicians, scientists, engineers, and CEOs.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
As a professional Engineer registered in multiple provinces, I resent your inclusion of my profession as a whole in your comment. There is considerable on going debate in our professional associations and there is NO CONSENSUS so far as I can tell. If you want to speak on behalf of your fellow Physicists, go ahead. But remember, engineers believe in empirical data and proofs and the topic of Climate Change is in its infancy at the moment so it is way too early to draw conclusions.

John from CA
November 22, 2011 5:34 pm

Gail Combs says:
November 22, 2011 at 4:03 pm
My hubby, who knows a bit about the Chinese language, noted that in the top Climategate 2 e-mail quoted here on WUWT, from someone named Qingxiang, there is a reference to “Prof. Ren.” He says it is possible that “Prof. Ren” is a mistranslation of Prof. Mann’s name into Chinese (where the character 人 means man and is pronounced ren) and then back into English.
It’s not easy to understand things out of context, but it is possible
====================================
“Over 2.5 billion people live on less than $2 a day.”
This statistic appears to come from 2005 World Bank information. The 47% in China is no longer accurate — approximately 15% now. I suspect the Read Me, beyond its meaning, is constructed aa cleaver ploy.
http://www.prb.org/Journalists/PressReleases/2005/MoreThanHalftheWorldLivesonLessThan2aDayAugust2005.aspx
“More than one-half of the world’s people live below the internationally defined poverty line of less than U.S. $2 a day—including 97 percent in Uganda, 80 percent in Nicaragua, 66 percent in Pakistan, and 47 percent in China, according to data from the World Bank.”
“66 percent in Pakistan” <– What's up with that?

Mooloo
November 22, 2011 5:37 pm

I don’t understand how you guys can justify posting links to someone’s information, which was obtained illegally.
There’s illegal, and there’s immoral. This information should have been available legally, and only needed to be obtained illegally because of the obstructionism.
So do you write to Mann now and complain of his much more illegal activities concerning deleting OIA material? Or are only sceptics expected to be fully legal?
Given the Team’s attitude to legality, I think you are pursuing the wrong theme. The other troll’s are doing better with the “look a flying monkey” and “nothing new” themes. They at least don’t implicate those they are trying to defend.

SteveSadlov
November 22, 2011 5:38 pm

@ Mike says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:33 am
====================
Howdy pardner!

sandw15
November 22, 2011 5:43 pm

This offer is specially prepared for
A Physicist (or occupant troll)
You are just the kind of forward-looking person I’m looking for. What you need is an investment strategy for the future. This is your opportunity to be among the first to get a ground-floor stake in the investment opportunity of the century. I’m talking about Sandw15’s South Texas Sea Resort Communities. I can fix you up with real estate which is now nearly worthless ranch land but which will soon be very valuable ocean front property. Imagine having a beach villa on the shores of a brand spanking new shallow sea. You could even afford your own island in the warm waters of the new South Texas Sea.
Worried about cost, you say? No problem. This is the perfect time to invest in real estate…and because of the current economic conditions; large tracts of land can be bought for a song. Building costs in South Texas are amongst the lowest in the country and we can fix you up with anything from a small vacation cottage to a mansion at an unbelievably low cost…and if you commit to building before January 2013 we’ll throw in a fishing pier, absolutely free. All you have to do is tell us where the shoreline will be and we’ll take care of the rest. Imagine having your own paradise-on-earth waiting for the Gulf of Mexico to roll in. And for the first hundred buyers, we’re offering an all expenses paid trip to the First Annual Sandw15 Death Valley Regatta. (To be scheduled at a later date). Don’t wait. This introductory offer will expire at the end of 2012 or upon the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (whichever comes first).
I can offer you great deals for properties in the original Bryan/College Station Island Chain and the new Beeville Archipelago. Prices start at only $22,000 per acre.
Don’t forget to ask for the 10% Troll discount

Spector
November 22, 2011 5:48 pm

RE: A physicist says:
“… the perception of a “Conservative War on Science” is becoming the consensus view of America’s mathematicians, scientists, and engineers …
The falsification of Science for the sake of a political or social cause cannot be taken lightly, whether that is done in full knowledge of the truth or under the spell of mutual self-deception.
The ‘Hockey Stick Hypothesis,’ attempting to show from multiple variable dependent, tree-ring growth data purporting that nothing like the current climate change had ever occurred in the past thousand years is a primary example of this. This appears to have been a blatant attempt to show that the past indications of recent large temperature variations were illusory.
Another problem appears to be allowing science journalists to gloss over the fact that the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect is limited to a narrow band of wavelengths around fifteen microns and the effect of each new cohort of CO2 added to the atmosphere is largely masked by that already present. This principle appears to be well known and a standard program used by the Air Force seems to indicate a raw one degree C ground temperature increase for each complete doubling (280:560:1120:2240 PPM) of the CO2 content in the atmosphere. By hiding this principle from the public, the danger of CO2 in the atmosphere can be exponentially magnified and we have people desperately fighting to hold the line at a mere 350 PPM.
For the past ten years according to data published by the university that is at the heart of the Climategate issue, there has been no significant global average temperature increase despite ever increasing CO2 levels. Something is rotten in Denmark.

SteveSadlov
November 22, 2011 5:48 pm

@ wayne says:
November 22, 2011 at 4:57 pm
At least we have an idea how the UHI was wiped. Dishonesty.
=====================
I always sensed this to be a hot button (pardon the pun) based on responses I would get bringing it up at RC and Wascally Wabbit’s blog.

SteveSadlov
November 22, 2011 5:49 pm

Re: It seems more likely to me that the source of this info is from someone who is trying to save the developed countries in the West. If so, they are an unsung hero.
==================
MI5?

wayne
November 22, 2011 5:49 pm

A Physicist, it’s not so much as mathematics though many here and myself (we) never seem to have a problem with the maths. It is the pure logic and terminology within this subject. Why don’t you open you eyes to where this “CO2 heating the surface” came from in the first place.
One good link to a complete analysis of Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861), Arrhenius (1896) and beyond where the misunderstandings crept in:
http://tyndall1861.geologist-1011.mobi/
“Text of Tyndall (1861)
About this Web Page.
I have included the full text of Tyndall’s 1861 dissertation on the opacity and radiative emission of gases because it would seem that those citing Tyndall have not bothered to read his work. It is immediately apparent that Tyndall did, at no time during his research, measure any radiative absorption. Tyndall’s “absorption” measurements are revealed, by his method, to actually be measurements of opacity. I refer you to the Frontispiece of the article reproduced here. Nowhere does Tyndall account for the proportion of opacity due to reflection, nor is any attempt made to simultaneously measure both opacity and emission in order to determine what proportion of opacity is due to absorption, in spite of the significant reflection of visible radiation by chlorine gas, which Tyndall actually handled. This is probably a fundamental misunderstanding on Tyndall’s part because he uses the terms “opacity” and “absorbing power” interchangably throughout his work. For more information concerning why I’ve included Tyndall (1861) among the most misquoted and abused papers in the public domain, see http://geologist-1011.mobi/.” …
You might find it is instead you, not we who misunderstands.

Gail Combs
November 22, 2011 5:54 pm

tania820 says:
November 22, 2011 at 4:02 pm
date: Wed, 29 Jul 2009 11:57:34 -0400
from: Michael Mann
subject: Re: ENSO blamed over warming – paper in JGR
to: Phil Jones
….. thanks for the update re CA–caught a hint of this latest fuss in a comment that came in at
RC (which we deleted from the queue). Sounds like they’re moving from person to person,
first harassed Ben earlier this year, now you, who knows who is next. I’ve been trying to
no avail to get some journalist to look into their funding, industry connections, etc. they
need to be exposed–badly!…..
__________________________
This is rather interesting. I noticed that the “sticky fingered” individuals I have known were always very quick to accuse someone else of their own behavior. It was a real good way of knowing who the culprit was when things went missing.
Interesting how CA, WUWT and others are always being accused of being funded by industry or Big Oil. I wonder just how much the “Team” is socking away from “special interests” and I am not talking about research grants. $1.6 million has already been revealed for Hansen.
Too bad there are so few real investigative reporters left and most of them have to run blogs because the news media is so bias.

A physicist
November 22, 2011 5:57 pm

A physicist says:”Everyone understands too that this slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting has become utterly irrelevant to the serious concerns of America’s mathematicians, scientists, engineers, and CEOs.”

Wayne Delbeke says: “As a professional Engineer registered in multiple provinces, I resent your inclusion of my profession as a whole in your comment. There is considerable on going debate in our professional associations and there is NO CONSENSUS so far as I can tell. If you want to speak on behalf of your fellow Physicists, go ahead. But remember, engineers believe in empirical data and proofs and the topic of Climate Change is in its infancy at the moment so it is way too early to draw conclusions.”

Wayne, every professional society has great respect for rational skepticism.
But no professional society respects “slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting.” Isn’t that correct, Wayne? For sure, I cannot think of a single one that does.
Except maybe, the society of paid political operatives and professional corporate lobbyists. Now those folks purely love skepticism that’s based on “slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting” … and do all they can foster it. Ain’t that right?

TheGoodLocust
November 22, 2011 5:57 pm

“petermue says:
November 22, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Yeah, I read it.
Why don’t you insist inviting him to put it *into* context?
I’m very anxious about his reply, because my post has been censored.”
I just posted a comment in response, but I doubt it’ll get posted since it looks like I’m banned for a while after that comment. The Realclimate guys like to “rebut” a comment and then block the offender so it looks like they cowed the initial commenter with their intellectual brilliance. The amusing thing is that their regulars always fall for it and laugh how nobody can formulate a response to their silly defenses.
In any case, here was my response:
“[Response: My ignoring you would simply be a sign that your out-of-context smear is too stupid to address. But I think it worthwhile to point out that the first line of this email has “They will misrepresent you and take out of context anything you give them”. How prescient! For everyone else, this is an email discussing the appalling (and officially investigated and rejected) allegation of fraud that Keenan made about a scientist at SUNY Albany. Jones was asking for advice on whether and how to respond to a request from Peiser (acting editor of Energy and Environment) for comments on a paper Keenan had submitted claiming a ‘fraud’. If you are looking for people who have experience discrediting people, I would start with Keenan. – gavin]
The only thing that is out-of-context is your response. Michael Mann said,
“I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his thusfar unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.”
So you think this is okay as long as he doesn’t hire the journalist in question? What is the context where it is okay to find a person to discredit someone you don’t like? Is it “when they deserve it” (in your opinion) or “when they are wrong” (your opinion)? I thought you guys were supposed to be sticking to the science, but behind the scenes you are apparently recruiting journalists to smear your opponents.
Again, why does Mann think you have “insights wiith respect to such matters?” Do you often “nudge” journalists into discrediting (Mann’s word) your ideological opponents like McIntyre?
FYI, attacking other people and claiming things are out-of-context won’t seem like a valid defense for anyone except the Realclimate regulars. “

Theo Goodwin
November 22, 2011 6:03 pm

Tucci78 says:
November 22, 2011 at 2:01 pm
Well said. Use more street language next time.

Benjamin P.
November 22, 2011 6:07 pm

Yawn
[REPLY: This is on a par with all of your other “contributions” to this site. -REP]

Chazz
November 22, 2011 6:09 pm

Jerry Seinfeld was quoting the famous line from Blazing Saddles.

Latitude
November 22, 2011 6:16 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 5:57 pm
“slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting.”
================================================
Lord, you love that phrase, don’t you……
Witch hunting has been with us since the beginning of time…..because we’ve had these witches since the beginning of time….claiming they could control, predict the weather/climate.
At one time it took some white chickens, a few goats, and maybe a virgin or two…
….but nothing has really changed
A magic man, shaman, witch doctor…..doesn’t matter….it’s always been about weather, good crops, floods, droughts….same old same old
Not enough rain…call a witch doctor
too much rain…..call a witch doctor
too cold, crops fail….call a witch doctor
drought, crops fail….call a witch doctor
and the same old shysters are still with us….
…and the same old morons still believe

November 22, 2011 6:21 pm

Gail Collins sez, “Beliefs” and “Causes” belong to religion and politics they have absolutely no place in science because it leads to “Confirmation Bias”
Well, no.
Scientists are scientists only when they do science. The rest of the time, they have ordinary lives to lead. Many of them think about the consequences of what their science has revealed. Like the dangers inherent in human-induced climate change. I’m sure they wish everyone agreed with them, but as Freud said they can’t change their way of thinking on account of people who think differently. (GIS: A Philosophy of Life by Sigmund Freud)

MattN
November 22, 2011 6:23 pm

Very humorous to see some in here doing damage control (A Physicist). Too much damage to control, I think…

Gerald Machnee
November 22, 2011 6:32 pm

It is time to ignore the physicist and ask why he/she will not post his/her real name – Troll.

sky
November 22, 2011 6:35 pm

Could the encryption password be “fight for the cause”–in cockney?

Robw
November 22, 2011 6:36 pm

I have to ask Jeffrey Davis
Since it is well documented the global average temp has not gone up but down in the past decade all-the-while CO2 continues to go up. Please share your wisdom as us mere mortals who live in the real world of real science are having a tough time with it. We await your wisdom.

MattN
November 22, 2011 6:38 pm

What the new “trick”?
Fox/Environment Agency:
if we loose the chance to make climate change a reality to people in the
regions we will have missed a major trick in REGIS.

MattN
November 22, 2011 6:40 pm

I see the prurpose of RC is revealed:
“the important thing is to make sure they’re loosing the PR battle. That’s what
the site [Real Climate] is about.”

davidmhoffer
November 22, 2011 6:45 pm

Trenberth is an awful poet. I figure even I can do better:
We, the kings, of climate are
Raising the price, of running your car
Data’s bogus, And we know it
Follow the money and you’ll know who we are
Stars alarming, stars of fright
Stars with gravy funding rights
Disaster leading, still proceeding
Guide you to economic blight
Mann thinks that it is a pain
To analyse data again and again
To h*ll with it, a hockey stick
Easier to draw, and to maintain
Stars alarming, stars of fright
Stars with gravy funding rights
Disaster leading, still proceeding
Guide you to economic blight
Answers are easy, we all will die
Jones says the data don’t lie
Asked to see it, but he deleted
Says there is no reason why
Stars alarming, stars of fright
Stars with gravy funding rights
Disaster leading, still proceeding
Guide you to economic blight
Trenberth’s whine complains of doom
Climate is all a gathering gloom
Heat he missed and he is p*ssed
Tragedy, sealed you see, in a deep, ocean tomb
Stars alarming, stars of fright
Stars with gravy funding rights
Disaster leading, still proceeding
Guide you to economic blight
Glorius, glorius, glorius Gore
No one believes anymore
Experiment, faked it, Watts explained it
Even RGates, supports him no more
Stars alarming, stars of fright
Stars with gravy funding rights
Disaster leading, still proceeding
Guide you to economic blight
We the kings of climate are
Being exposed, for what we are
Reward our lies, Nobel prize
We the stars need no cars
The right to fly instead is ours
Hotels first class…hey…this room is kinda sparse….and what’s with the bars?

Stephen Prower
November 22, 2011 6:45 pm

<David M. Brooks said:
<November 22, 2011 at 3:11 pm
<My recollection is that after the original Climategage emails
<were released, the CRU said that they were taken “out of
<context” and were going to do a full release of their own so
<everything would be in context.
I tried to confirm the accuracy of Mr Brook's recollection, but
failed.
Instead I came up with the fact that in March 2010 the House of
Commons Science and Technology Committee concluded the report of
its investigation of the Climategate 1 revelations: 'We consider
that further suspicion could have been allayed by releasing all
the e-mails'.
As we now learn: Quite the opposite!
Stephen Prower
Wednesday 23 November 2011
—-
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387/387i.pdf
'House of Commons
Science and Technology Committee
The disclosure of climate data from the Climatic Research Unit
at the University of East Anglia
Eighth Report of Session 2009–10
Report, together with formal minutes
HC 387-I
Published on 31 March 2010
by authority of the House of Commons
London: The Stationery Office Limited
Conclusions and recommendations
Datasets
1. … Professor Jones told us that the published e-mails
represented only “one tenth of 1%” of his output, which amounts
to one million e-mails, and that we were only seeing the end of
a protracted series of e-mail exchanges. We consider that
further suspicion could have been allayed by releasing all the
e-mails. … . (Paragraph 38)'

wayne
November 22, 2011 6:45 pm

Gail Combs says:
Too bad there are so few real investigative reporters left and most of them have to run blogs because the news media is so bias.
__________________________
Exactly! You can’t help but wonder… the stink in climate science is so thick:
now what would be lurking in those 220,000 encrypted messages… hmmm, let’s guess… the specific criminality? The government connections. Congress? Parliament? The NGO money, the charity laundering, the covert corporate sponsor Nth-party web, …. mustn’t leave out Wall Street, Goldman-Sachs, Soros. Oh yes, and what of Bush’s ethanol. Gee, too many to list here.
One reason to imagine of those green-stinking-fumes are locked behind a passphrase wall is that district attorney’s have dictated it strictly off-limits to bring those public. Maybe that is why it took this individual so long to filter what is exactly releasable and what is legally not (due to ongoing investigations).
Let’s hope something like that is in fact the case, but also could be but a day-dream and in reality there is no one who enforces justice anymore.

G. Karst
November 22, 2011 6:51 pm

“A physicist” IS Michael Mann!
[REPLY: Sorry, no he isn’t. -REP]

LamontT
November 22, 2011 6:52 pm

[i]You Guys are unreal says:
November 22, 2011 at 3:39 pm
“The Cause” = the cause of getting the world to sit up and take notice of the warming, future warming and detrimental effects thereof. Nothing sinister.
Instead of picking emails to bits, surely all the ‘skeptic’ side have to do is come up with evidence disproving the warming…[/i]
————————
Um why would we try to disprove that the earth has warmed as it came out of The Little Ice Age? That would be nuts. Perhaps you should take time to find out what people actually believe instead of accepting the strawman arguments you appear to have embraced. We who are skeptical don’t disbelieve that the world warms can cools. We don’t even challenge that man can have a local impact on things. Where the doubt comes is just how much man has affected things and that warming is even a bad thing. After all we know that the earth has been much warmer than this at periods in the past. We are still below the average temperature that preceded the last full Ice Age. Last there i doubt that warming will have the supposed catastrophic effect on things that are insisted on by the AGW followers of [b]The Cause[/b].
One of the major problems has been that when people claiming that it will all end in DOOM are asked to show their work they call you names and try to do anything but show how they came to their conclusions.

November 22, 2011 6:52 pm

Jones: I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts.
The IPCC is above the law, eh? They’re not above the court of public opinion.

November 22, 2011 6:56 pm

Folks, A physicist may be a troll or a bot. In either case it’s clear- A physicist is brainless. Here’s a link to a similar but modified post made on 11/10/11 on PJ Media over the Mens’ Warehouse support of OWS.
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2011/11/10/youre-gonna-hate-the-way-this-looks-we-guarantee-it/

MattN
November 22, 2011 7:00 pm

Pepsi shot out my nose on this one:
Haimberger:
It is interesting to see the lower tropospheric warming minimum in the tropics
in all three plots, which I cannot explain. I believe it is spurious but it is
remarkably robust against my adjustment efforts.

AndyG55
November 22, 2011 7:01 pm

@ a non-physicist…
“Except maybe, the society of paid political operatives and professional corporate lobbyists. …. based on “slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting” … and do all they can foster it.
Ain’t that right”
Aye, it surely is.. and these emails show exactly that case.

November 22, 2011 7:02 pm

A physicist is either a bot or a troll. Google “mainly slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting” and see what comes up.

cui bono
November 22, 2011 7:04 pm

To Elmer and the wonderful MinnesotansforGlobalWarming:
Some years ago we had “Jerry Springer: The Opera”. To recreate the TV show, a choir sang “F*** you” often and in bass to soprano. Funny, if not quite prime-time family entertainment.
Many of the comments in these mails would do well as arias. And think of the smash hits:-
“No dirty laundry in the open.”
“I’m gonna find myself an investigative journalist…”
“Delete the emails!” ( a wild showstopper with dancers on giant computer keys)
“I don’t know about Judith Curry” (sad solo)
“Truly pathetic” (passers-by to antihero in gutter)
Think big!

AdderW
November 22, 2011 7:04 pm

Heartland Institute is all over it
heartland.org/press-releases/2011/11/22/heartland-institute-reacts-climategate-2-emails

Gerald Machnee
November 22, 2011 7:08 pm

**“the important thing is to make sure they’re loosing the PR battle**
Well, he could not even spell “losing” correctly.
If you need a laugh, Gavin and the usual ones are making excuses at RC.

Fernando
November 22, 2011 7:13 pm

I’m wondering what these guys talk on MSN.

davidmhoffer
November 22, 2011 7:15 pm

…and this time the MSM seems to be getting up to speed a lot quicker.
Terence Corcoran over at Financial Post is on it already. They took weeks to call BS on ClimateGate 1.
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/11/22/terence-corcoran-climategate-2-0-reveals-familiar-cast-of-characters-blundering-glory/

RockyRoad
November 22, 2011 7:22 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 5:57 pm

A physicist says: ”Everyone understands too that this slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting has become utterly irrelevant to the serious concerns of America’s mathematicians, scientists, engineers, and CEOs.”

But no professional society respects “slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting.”

You, “physicist” are complaining that people here are“slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting”
But that’s exactly what you’re doing, “physicist”.
I see you’re “cherry-picking” your statements.
I see you have been “slogan-shouting” with the phrase “slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting”
And I see you’ve been “witch-hunting”, too.
So to sum it all up, it is you that has been “slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting”
Well, enough of your “slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting”!
What a hypocrite (and a boor). Please try a new approach, and please, please shout a new slogan!

Daphne
November 22, 2011 7:25 pm

Hooray! Another early Christmas present!
FOIA 1 was the best thing that happened at the end of ’09 – this is gonna be good!

November 22, 2011 7:26 pm

Norfolk police have said the new set of emails is “of interest” to their investigation to find the perpetrator of the initial email release who has not yet been identified.
Don’t know yet? You’ve got to be kidding me. I know people that could have found out the exact computer and time, and found it long since by now.

Steve Garcia
November 22, 2011 7:28 pm

[Rean Guoyu, to Phil Jones] In the past years, we did some analyses of the urban warming effect on surface air temperature trends in China, and we found the effect is pretty big in the areas we analyzed. This is a little different from the result you obtained in 1990.

Jones was a co-author on that Chinese study, the one that claimed that all the sites were unchanged, but that was untrue. That study came up with a UHI of something like 0.012C/year or so, and was deemed not significant.
Compare that with this

Jones:
[…] every effort has been made to use data that are either rural and/or where
the urbanization effect has been removed as well as possible by statistical
means. There are 3 groups that have done this independently (CRU, NOAA and
GISS), and they end up with essentially the same results.

That word, “removed” – is that a misstatement, or is the plain language of this passage correct, that they “removed” as in “got rid of” the “urbanization effect” by playing with the numbers.
“Removed as well as possible” – that sounds nasty, doesn’t it?
But the underlying thing in this is that NOAA and GISS had essentially the same results – so, are we to wonder, then, if those other two didn’t also “remove” the urbanization effect, in much the same way? No one knows how much overlap there is in methodology between the Big Three, do we? With Gavin and Hansen at NOAA and GISS, respectively, and at least Schmidt being in the middle of all these shenanigans, one has to think there has been some serious overlap.
I guess that Hansen was NOT in the middle of all of this is a plus on his side…

November 22, 2011 7:28 pm

Amazing that there are still people defending ClimateGte scientists. At long last have all of you no shame!

Steve Garcia
November 22, 2011 7:29 pm

Oops! Those two emails were 0044 and 2939.

November 22, 2011 7:30 pm

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/11/22/global-warming-good-for-trees-councillor
posting here just to be part of history…
yay for an Anonymous that does something useful..
now how about those Obama University transcripts… 😉

John
November 22, 2011 7:31 pm

A sequel? That’s it…

Lilly
November 22, 2011 7:34 pm

Western ethics goes with western research. Get it back.

pwl
November 22, 2011 7:42 pm

Yes it’s possible that the paraphrase is in the preamble. That would be smart. Certainly that will be one line of attempting to crack it.
I find it rather bizarre that they’d not release all the documents. I don’t agree with them playing games like that, it smacks of dishonesty. They got the docs and they should release the pass-phrase forthwith otherwise they are really no better than those in “the team”, playing games rather than being honest.

MattN
November 22, 2011 7:43 pm

“Instead of picking emails to bits, surely all the ‘skeptic’ side have to do is come up with evidence disproving the warming”
You do know this is a strawman argument, right?
You do know what a strawman argument is, right?

wayne
November 22, 2011 7:54 pm

Man, how could I have left Obama and his administration from my list of culprits above! Must be because he such a late comer in this fiasco, but he was given it all lock, stock and barrel, so put him in there near the very top. ☺

Jimmy Haigh
November 22, 2011 7:56 pm

No #1635 has Phil Jones upset at an article on the BBC website by Dr Martin Keeley.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4066189.stm
date: Tue Dec 7 16:23:04 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxx
subject: Re: FYI
to: trenbert@xxxx
Kevin,
Wasn't rung about this one !
What an utter load of rubbish. He should go back to the oil company who pays his
salary. He should take the logic course he says we should go on. Claims climate
can't be predicted (as the weather can't) and we can't modify the climate anyway,
but wait for it (!) we should accept it's going to change – abandon Holland, shift
Mediterranean crops to N. Europe ! Doesn't seem to consider modelling the climate
to try and say when it might happen, so we can plan !
Should be working for the Bush govt, with this sort of logic !
Phil

November 22, 2011 7:57 pm

Somehow, AGW’s trillion dollar heist seems a whole lot less threatening. It would be sad, really, if the perps hadn’t already bilked so much out of so many.

Dave Wendt
November 22, 2011 7:58 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Dave Wendt says:
A physicist says: “A terrific example is the article in the November Notices of the American Mathematical Society, by Chen, Laane, Wheeler, and Zhang, titled ‘Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective.’”
Just found your cite. In the first paragraph came upon this” ”The molecules of these gases trap heat in the form of infrared radiation, causing the atmospheric temperature to rise. But which molecules are the greenhouse gases, and just how do they trap heat?”
Not a hopeful start.Take courage & read further, Dave … the plot thickens! 🙂
Not too quick on the uptake are we? You give yourself the moniker “A physicist”, then show up here pimping this wonderful piece of scientific explication that begins with the above and goes on through some really “fascinating” mathematics to their “Concluding Remarks” where they slip in this beauty
“We have only touched lightly on the greenhouse gas methane here. But methane (the key ingredient of natural gas) could be a much more worrisome greenhouse gas as it can trap
much more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide does.”
Greenhouse gas molecules “trap heat”? That’s really what you want to hang your hat on? “A physicist”? Sound’s to me more like “A pharmacist” sitting around dreading the next time the authorities show up to check his inventory of psychotropics.

Allen
November 22, 2011 7:59 pm

‘Instead of picking emails to bits, surely all the ‘skeptic’ side have to do is come up with evidence disproving the warming…”
The temperature record does not support the “hockey stick” hypothesis of AGW. If it did, the Inuit would be wearing shorts outside year round. Instead they are getting ice roads for winter. Again.
Natural climate variability is a hypothesis borne out by data representing hundreds of millenia. This is the more convincing hypothesis for those who know science and not the political advocacy / pseudoscience known as “The Cause”.

November 22, 2011 8:26 pm

Absolutely priceless.
Once again the financial and corporate interests of the globalists in manipulating climate data have been exposed. Why are these “scientists” still in their jobs? Anywhere else they would be sacked long ago. Someone is desperate for the global warming agenda to be rolled out.

Kozlowski
November 22, 2011 8:30 pm

The Readme file used unusual notation for the separation of thousands. Most countries use a comma but in the file it was a decimal point. So whomever was the originator of this file, the Readme file, might possible have come from one of these countries.
http://www.statisticalconsultants.co.nz/weeklyfeatures/WF31.html
Here is a list of countries that use a decimal point for separation of digits:
Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia and Sweden.
Not that I would want to out the person. They are doing a tremendous service for the integrity of science. Why should *any* of this ever have been hidden away from us? It all needs to see the light of day.

Eve Stevens
November 22, 2011 8:49 pm

5333
It is hard to find evidence of a drastic warming of the Arctic.
It is also difficult to find evidence of a drastic warming outside urban
areas in a large part of the world outside Europe. However the increase in
temperature in Central Europe may be because the whole are is urbanised
So, I find it necessary to object to the talk about a scaring temperature increase because of increased human release of CO2. In fact, the warming seems to be limited to densely populated areas. The often mentioned correlation between temperature and CO2 is not convincing. If there is a factor explaining a major part of changes in the temperature, it is
solar irradiation. There are numerous studies demonstrating this correlation
but papers are not accepted by IPCC. Most likely, any reduction of CO2
release will have no effect whatsoever on the temperature (independent of how
expensive).
You can object all you like but you are not looking at the evidence and
you need to have a basis, which you have not established. You seem to doubt that CO2 has increased and that it is a greenhouse gas and you are
very wrong. But of course there is a lot of variability and looking at
one spot narrowly is not the way to see the big picture. In my mind, we have to accept that it is great if we can reduce the release of CO2 because we are using up a resource the earth will be short of in the future, but we are in error if we claims a global warming caused by CO2.
Yours sincerely Wibjörn

AndyG55
November 22, 2011 8:52 pm

“Instead of picking emails to bits, surely all the ‘skeptic’ side have to do is come up with evidence disproving the warming”
Matt, these emails pretty much point out that there was almost certainly NOTHING to disprove. !!

David Falkner
November 22, 2011 8:56 pm

I haven’t checked the emails themselves yet, but is there anything in them about the science?

Harry Won A BAgel
November 22, 2011 9:08 pm

I presume this is game, set and match. It would be in a rational world. Also in a rational world some of these people would be facing gaol time.

crosspatch
November 22, 2011 9:09 pm

The Readme file used unusual notation for the separation of thousands.

What’s Julian Assange doing these days? Isn’t this whole thing about releasing an encrypted file sans passphrase along his MO?

A physicist
November 22, 2011 9:12 pm

A physicist says: “A terrific example is the article in the November Notices of the American Mathematical Society, by Chen, Laane, Wheeler, and Zhang, titled ‘Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective.’”

Dave Wendt says: Greenhouse gas molecules “trap heat”? That’s really what you want to hang your hat on? “A physicist”? Sound’s to me more like “A pharmacist” sitting around dreading the next time the authorities show up to check his inventory of psychotropics.

Gee Dave, your remark surprises me, considering that the infrared resonances responsible for greenhouse heat-trapping are thoroughly reviewed on pages 1425-6 and pages 1430-1 of the article cited.
Most scientists think these theories have been pretty solidly validated over the past 180 years — one might even call this view a “consensus.” Certainly these authors don’t mind exposing their greenhouse gas analysis methods to the critical review of the AMS, whose members comprise the largest and technically strongest body of professional mathematicians in the world.
This must mean … the AMS mathematicians are one-and-all of them … witches!!!  🙂   🙂   🙂

Jeff C
November 22, 2011 9:17 pm

Seems pretty likely “a physicist” is our old friend TCO. I don’t think he’s been around since he showed up as “scientist” over at CA a few months back.

pat
November 22, 2011 9:21 pm

Samenow says nothing to see here!
Washington Post Capital Weather Gang Blog
Posted at 06:39 PM ET, 11/22/2011
Climategate 2.0: Do new emails undermine global warming science?
By Jason Samenow
The “new” emails (not new in that they are from 2009 and earlier) – while trumpeted by some climate skeptics as “spectacular” and draining life from the manmade global warming movement – mean little substantively from a scientific standpoint, just like the set that preceded them.
The climate skeptic blogosphere has been quick to cherry pick certain snippets from the emails they claim show dissension within the climate science ranks, perhaps to demonstrate scientists may express more doubt about their confidence in the science in private than they do in public…
And they’ve pointed to emails where a scientist discusses ways to avoid releasing data, suggesting he has something to hide…BLAH BLAH
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/climategate-20-do-new-emails-undermine-global-warming-science/2011/11/22/gIQArptGmN_blog.html
Jason Samenow: Center for Climate Change Communicati George Mason University
by Kevin Rosseel
Climate Change Division (formerly Division’s Communications Director)
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Jason Samenow is an environmental scientist working in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change Division in Washington, DC. A meteorologist by training, with degrees from the University of Virginia and the University of Wisconsin, Mr. Samenow has worked tirelessly in 2009 – and for almost a decade – to use communications as an effective tool to combat climate change.
Among the activities in which Mr. Samenow has been a leader in 2009 are participation and sometimes management of the federal Communications Interagency Working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program – see http://globalchange.gov/. His tireless efforts on behalf of promoting coherent and consistent climate messaging from federal agencies has been a remarkable contribution to making science intelligible to U.S. and international citizens at all levels, general and technical.
http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/Jason.cfm

Mac the Knife
November 22, 2011 9:25 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:53 am
“That’s the practical reason why CEOs, military strategists, farmers, fishers, and hunters, not to mention most mathematicians, scientists, and engineers, are rejecting the peculiar brand of skepticism that is increasingly practiced here on Watt’s Up With That.”
You empty bandwaggoning, bloviating git! I grew up farming. Done and still do a lot of fishing and hunting, as well. I hold 2 engineering degrees and have worked as an engineer and scientist for +24 years. Yes – I’ve done the things you just talk about. I and many folks like me reject the tragically flawed, criminally bastardized, and scientifically unsupported hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming. We reject similarly impaired folks like you, that spout ad hom attacks while providing nothing of merit to the discussion. We know crap when we see it being shoveled and smell it. Comes, in part, from growing up on a farm…..

pat
November 22, 2011 9:26 pm

Bob Ward says nothing to see here:
23 Nov: Independent UK: Michael McCarthy: Climategate erupts again ahead of key summit
More hacked emails between researchers released in apparent bid to destabilise conference
But climate experts asserted that they did nothing to undermine global warming science. “The emails… do not raise any questions of substance that have not already been addressed by the independent inquiries into the original publication of hacked messages in November 2009,” said Bob Ward at the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change.
“None of the inquiries found evidence of fraud or serious misconduct by climate researchers, but they did conclude that levels of transparency should be improved. These emails, like the last batch, show that climate researchers are human and prone to the same rivalries and disputes that occur in many professions.”..
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climategate-erupts-again-ahead-of-key-summit-6266361.html

David A. Evans
November 22, 2011 9:31 pm

Not read all the comments so this has probably already been mentioned. The reference to Judith Curry indicates this is a new set of emails.
We’re talking at least one seriously peed off sysop here!

DR
November 22, 2011 9:33 pm

@ physicist
Now we know who Al Gore employed to do his “heat trapping” glass jar experiment.
BTW physicist, just where is that missing hot spot?

David Ball
November 22, 2011 9:33 pm

I love the “Yawn” posts on here when there is a 350 car pile up going on behind them. Who are they trying to kid?

David Falkner
November 22, 2011 9:34 pm

http://www.yourvoicematters.org/cru/mailsearch.php
Searchable database here.
REPLY: Thats Climategate 1, not 2.0 – Anthony

pat
November 22, 2011 9:36 pm

safer for the MSM to publish on Blogs!
22 Nov: ABC America Nature & Environment Blog: Ned Potter: ‘Climategate 2.0′? Or Just Nasty Climate Politics?
On the other hand, Gavin Schmidt, a climate modeler at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, writes on RealClimate.org, “Very little appears to be new in this batch. Indeed, even the out-of-context quotes aren’t that exciting, and are even less so in-context.”…
And there is this from the University of East Anglia itself:
…“As in 2009, extracts from emails have been taken completely out of context…
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2011/11/climategate-2-0-or-just-nasty-climate-politics/
previous articles by “climate” hack Ned:
http://abcnews.go.com/Author/Ned_Potter

David Falkner
November 22, 2011 9:36 pm

Crap, nevermind, these are the old ones! I was fooled by the fact that today’s date was on it. Apologies.

Dave Wendt
November 22, 2011 9:42 pm

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:12 pm
Gee Dave, your remark surprises me, considering that the infrared resonances responsible for greenhouse heat-trapping are thoroughly reviewed on pages 1425-6 and pages 1430-1 of the article cited.
Most scientists think these theories have been pretty solidly validated over the past 180 years — one might even call this view a “consensus.” Certainly these authors don’t mind exposing their greenhouse gas analysis methods to the critical review of the AMS, whose members comprise the largest and technically strongest body of professional mathematicians in the world.
This must mean … the AMS mathematicians are one-and-all of them … witches!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
What in your understanding is the residence time of a photon of infrared energy emitted from the earth which is absorbed by a molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere? There are number of physicists among the community of commentors here. How about we do a short poll? How many of you guys or your colleagues in the physics community would use “heat trapping” as an analogy of what occurs in the radiative forcing that is supposedly the basis of the CAGW conjecture?

crosspatch
November 22, 2011 9:44 pm

I have been fascinated with the emails pertaining to i.harris@uea.ac.uk

Ron Cram
November 22, 2011 9:49 pm

MattN says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Pepsi shot out my nose on this one:
Haimberger:
It is interesting to see the lower tropospheric warming minimum in the tropics
in all three plots, which I cannot explain. I believe it is spurious but it is
remarkably robust against my adjustment efforts.
——————-
I hope Jon Stewart runs that on the Daily Show! That is high comedy to anyone who understands the lingo.

pat
November 22, 2011 9:54 pm

Revkin is shameless, and he already has a newer thread above his Climategate 2.0 thread called “Dot Shot: Hong Kong Haul of Smuggled Rhino Horn and Ivory”, demoting the new email release in his mind, no doubt:
22 Nov: Andrew C. Revkin: Another Treaty Negotiation, Another Batch of Climate Science E-Mail
9:42 p.m. | Updated
Talk about getting ahead of the news. There have already been pre-emptive posts by climate campaigners warning journalists not to be fooled into seeing news in a freshly revealed batch of what appear to be old e-mail exchanges among climate scientists. The material swiftly spread around the Web sites of climate doubt purveyors and energy stasists early today.
Joe Romm’s headline began, “Fool Me Once, Shame on You, Fool Me Twice, Shame on the Media.”
Jocelyn Fong of Media Matters put it this way:
The question is: will mainstream media outlets allow themselves to be made part of a campaign to distract the public from the big picture on climate change? Or will they fulfill their responsibilities as journalists? Looks like we’ll find out if they’ve learned their lesson to research first, then report.
What these activists forget is that the first time around there was news. The contents of the files did raise questions. The questions were answered.
In the meantime, Anthony Watts, perhaps desperate for a new raison d’être now that the relevance of his weather station investigations into global warming have evaporated, described the e-mail trove this way: “They’re real and they’re spectacular!”…
I still stand by what I wrote in August of 2010:
Do I trust climate science? As a living body of intellectual inquiry exploring profoundly complex questions, yes…
[9:50 p.m. | Updated | Interviewed for the news story in The Times tonight, Raymond S. Bradley, a climate scientist at the University of Massachusetts, said that criticisms he made in one e-mail of a particular past paper by Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist now at the University of Pennsylvania, had no bearing on his confidence in the basic body of science pointing to substantial human-driven warming:
“I did not like that paper at all, and I stand by that, and I am sure that I told Mike that” at the time, he said. But he added that a disagreement over a single paper had little to do with the overall validity of climate science. “There is no doubt we have a big problem with human-induced warming,” Dr. Bradley said. “Mike’s paper has no bearing on the fundamental physics of the problem that we are facing.” Read the rest.]
It’s also important to keep in mind how little of significance the first batch of e-mails and other material contained…
Francesca Grifo, senior scientist and director of the scientific integrity program of the Union of Concerned Scientists, said in a news release that the new incident was a good reminder to British law enforcement agencies to “redouble their efforts to find the criminals who are behind” the initial release of the douments. “To do otherwise sends a message that freedom of expression will only selectively be protected.”
Of course, the first step — after two years and counting — is for the Norfolk Constabulary (as I’ve written here before) to decide whether a crime was committed in the first place…
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/22/a-new-batch-of-climate-e-mail-surfaces-ahead-of-treaty-talks/
——————————————————————————–

November 22, 2011 10:05 pm

The blogger who calls himself “A physicist” claims that “America’s scientists have been pretty much right-on-target for eighteen decades in a row …” (Nov. 22, 2011 at 11:52 am). This claim is false on at least four counts. First, the implication that America’s scientists are unanimous in their opinion is wrong by reference to postings on blogs such as this one. Second, the implication that the subset of “scientists” supporting the anthropogenic global warming conjecture are indeed scientists is false, for these “scientists” have failed to frame their conjecture in a manner in which it is refutable by by comparison of the predicted to the observed outcomes of statistical events, thus placing this conjecture outside the realm of science and inside the realm of dogmatism. Third, the HADCRUT3 global temperature time series extends backward in time only 161 years; in climatology, the canonical duration of a statistical event is 30 years not the 1 year that is implied by “A physicist.” Thus, the 161 year period contains no more than 161 divided by 30, rounded to the next lowest integer or 5 events; the “scientists” can have been right in at most 5 events not 18. Fourth, whether the “scientists” were right is indeterminate in view of the fact that the models of these “scientists” did not make predictions; they made “projections” but unlike a prediction, a projection is irrefutable by the definition of terms.

Lee
November 22, 2011 10:08 pm

Release all the emails, whats with this crap encryption.
release it all or else its just crap.
Sorry, as it stands, couldnt care less anymore…
Release it all or else I state to everyone ‘load of hogwash’. Actually I already do this now, anybody that deliberately limits the release of information is not to be trusted or given the time of day.
Cheers.
Lee.

David Falkner
November 22, 2011 10:10 pm

crosspatch says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:44 pm
Are there any from Mick Kelly or Nguyen Nuu Hinh?
m.kelly@uea.ac.uk
cered@hn.vnn.vn

Ron Cram
November 22, 2011 10:12 pm

Did everyone catch this bit from the end of the README file?
Jones:
[FOI, temperature data]
Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we
get – and has to be well hidden. I’ve discussed this with the main funder (US
Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original
station data.

JustMEinT Musings
November 22, 2011 10:13 pm

Can’t be happier than I am right this minute thinking of all of this coming out right on DURBAN. These lying swines have had their fun – now it is our turn. Thanks for all the great work being done…..

Ron Cram
November 22, 2011 10:16 pm

Lee, I think this release a little bit at a time thing is following the Saul Alinsky strategy of “drip, drip, drip.” It keeps it in the news cycle longer. The more they draw it out, the more painful it is to UEA. It is kind of like holding something over your opponent’s head and trying to take their will to fight.
I’m not sure it is a bad strategy. It appears whoever this deep cover agent is has a plan and is a very patient person.

crosspatch
November 22, 2011 10:18 pm

Bunch pertaining to Mick Kelly, one pertaining to “Nguyen Nuu Hinh”

Ron Cram
November 22, 2011 10:19 pm

When is someone going to put these emails into a searchable format online? I can’t wait to run a few keywords!

Jeff C
November 22, 2011 10:21 pm

Charlie Martin at PJ Media outed A physicist was long ago. It’s in the comments of this thread:
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2011/09/24/cain-what-happened-in-florida/

crosspatch
November 22, 2011 10:23 pm

$ less 0062.txt
date: Tue, 24 Jun 2003 14:17:15 +0000
from: “Mick Kelly”
subject: NOAA funding
to: Nguyen Huu Ninh
—-boundary-LibPST-iamunique-1131694944_-_-
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=”utf-8″
Ninh
NOAA want to give us more money for the El Nino work with IGCN.
How much do we have left from the last budget? I reckon most has been spent but we need to show some left to cover the costs of the
trip Roger didn’t make and also the fees/equipment/computer money we haven’t spent otherwise NOAA will be suspicious.
Politically this money may have to go through Simon’s institute but there overhead rate is high so maybe not!
Best wishes
Mick

David Falkner
November 22, 2011 10:23 pm

I ask because he is involved in some interesting stuff in the first batch. To wit:
From: Mick Kelly
To: Phil Jones
Subject: RE: Global temperature
Date: Sun, 26 Oct 2008 09:02:00 +1300
Yeah, it wasn’t so much 1998 and all that that I was concerned about, used
to dealing with that, but the possibility that we might be going through a
longer – 10 year – period of relatively stable temperatures beyond what you
might expect from La Nina etc.
Speculation, but if I see this as a possibility then others might also.
Anyway, I’ll maybe cut the last few points off the filtered curve before I
give the talk again as that’s trending down as a result of the end effects
and the recent cold-ish years.

Also:
From: “Mick Kelly”
To: Nguyen Huu Ninh
Subject: NOAA funding
Date: Tue, 24 Jun 2003 14:17:15 +0000
—-boundary-LibPST-iamunique-1131694944_-_-
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=”utf-8″
Ninh
NOAA want to give us more money for the El Nino work with IGCN.
How much do we have left from the last budget? I reckon most has been spent but we need to show some left to cover the costs of the trip Roger didn’t make and also the fees/equipment/computer money we haven’t spent otherwise NOAA will be suspicious.
Politically this money may have to go through Simon’s institute but there overhead rate is high so maybe not!
Best wishes
Mick

Is there anyone that knows of someone creating a webpage with a search engine function like the one I mistakenly linked to?

philincalifornia
November 22, 2011 10:26 pm

Ron Cram says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:49 pm
MattN says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Pepsi shot out my nose on this one:
Haimberger:
It is interesting to see the lower tropospheric warming minimum in the tropics
in all three plots, which I cannot explain. I believe it is spurious but it is
remarkably robust against my adjustment efforts.
——————-
I hope Jon Stewart runs that on the Daily Show! That is high comedy to anyone who understands the lingo.
============================
Might be similar comedy for A Physicist to explain it.
….. or maybe for him to show us the difference between radiative forcing of 280 ppm of CO2 and 30,000 ppm of water vapor vs. 392 ppm of CO2 and 30,000 ppm of water vapor in the oceanic tropics below 2 kilometers altitude.
Cue a response with no mathematics in it, just links and appeals to “authority”.

Mann Bearpig
November 22, 2011 10:33 pm

So we have;
Global Warming
Climate Change
Weather Weirding
The Cause

November 22, 2011 10:34 pm

Sure looks like turkeys simmered in their own bastings to me. :> My guess is that these burnt birds will be having trouble digesting their stuffing this Thaksgiving weekend. So sad. Couldn’t have happened to a badder bunch of snake oil swillers. A large helping of indigestion all around for those exposed author turkeys.
Let’s see, FIOA2011 (Yeah! Hurrah!) released the first bunch of emails and torpedoed Copenhagen.
The climate racketeers snubbed the release and kept pressing for CAGW funds to be pulled from the mouths of the world’s poor (and almost poor).
So FOIA released a second batch of emails, just before the climate faithful meet in Durban and again try to ram CAGW regulatories through.
This time FOIA left a huge maybe sitting on the shelf. Can one say the nuke option? Now most rational people would recognize overwhelming force when they see it, especially if they are responsible for many of the emails. Does anyone know any rational CAGW climate hucksters?
Snippets of emails does allow claims of “out of context”. However, the nuke option on the shelf just might have entire email threads; and those complete threads will make it much easier to determine “intent”. It’s a shame that FOIA (as far as we know) doesn’t have some of the American mail boxes; those complete email exchanges would be very entertaining.

David Falkner
November 22, 2011 10:39 pm

Ok, there are definitely duplicates in the second batch then. Is it even a second batch? The original set of emails had 6 from Mick Kelly and one to Ninh.

November 22, 2011 10:40 pm

Well the tax is in and at the end of the day (Psalms 118:8) It is better to trust in the LORD than to put confidence in man. God is incharge.

wayne
November 22, 2011 10:48 pm

Eve Stevens says:
November 22, 2011 at 8:49 pm
5333
______________________________
Eve, the way you put that text without divisions threw me at first… just spent the time to dig up that e-mail and read top to bottom. Quite interesting, probably would have never made it that far down the email list to ever have read it. It is especially amazing how trivially Trenberth tries to put Wibjörn, a geology professor evidentially, in his place by claiming “You seem to doubt that CO2 has increased and that it is a greenhouse gas…” which is not at least what Wibjörn had laid out in great sensible detail through his e-mail. It’s like Trenberth saying—YOU MY DEAR SIR ARE A DENIER.
But what Wibjörn presented make IPCC a bald face liar.
I recommend all to dig that e-mail up at some time, 5333, and read it completely. (watch for the ‘>>’ being Wibjörn speaking and ‘>’ when usually Trenberth is replying, but not always)
Just shows you just how pompous these clown gods of AGW can be. There is no reason they should be receiving public funds of any kind with such attitudes. Not a single penny.
UAE and Boulder Colorado, without them both this world would be a whole lot saner.

Danielle Westerbank
November 22, 2011 10:56 pm

What is astonishing is that these emails seem to have less to do with manipulating science than the first set did….
And this is proof of something?
Ok.

P Wilson
November 22, 2011 11:06 pm

Interersting.
The Cause = made up dogma, possible bearing no relation to reality
At least labels such as “global warming, climate change, climate disruption”, give the impression of a pretense to objectivity

PositivePaul
November 22, 2011 11:07 pm

the politicians go by the information given them from the IPCC – the Gillard Brown Carbon Tax is much like the bloke in old B & W movies wearing a sign that reads “The End Is Nigh” and we look but at the same time know that the ignorance of the dark past has still not left us. Church and State still believes it has total power over us – but the masses are now learning what they are not supposed to know and the light is on – and it’s not powered by windmills but by enlightenment.

Robbo
November 22, 2011 11:16 pm

@ Venkman says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:04 am
2368
“…With the earlier FOI requests re David Holland, I wasted a part of a day deleting
numerous emails and exchanges with almost all the skeptics.”
Nice catch. Now we know why the enquiries never asked Jones if he deleted emails.
The task ahead is to parse the ‘Team’ responses to and enquiry evidence about Climategate 1 emails against the further background now revealed.
In the markets, they say “When the tide goes it it shows who’s been bathing naked”. The Climate tide is now going out (again).

November 22, 2011 11:37 pm

Hello folks
I have published a searchable database of the emails at http://foia2011.org
All email addresses and phone numbers are automatically redacted. It’s extremely rudimentary right now, but I’ll be refining the functionality and improving the search capabilities and navigation over the course of the next week.

November 22, 2011 11:41 pm

Excerpt from #5323
3. After “The Ten” have signed on, we need an enthusiastic
organization to carry out the time-consuming task of collecting as
many signatures of scientists in Europe as possible, so that we can
say “1,865 European scientists, including (the prominent ten) have
signed a Statement that says .. and so forth”. I don’t think that
either you or Rob or I have the time to do this. For the American
statement this job was done by an organization called “Redefining
Progress”. Perhaps for us it could be WWF. What do you think.

November 22, 2011 11:41 pm

Could the statement in the ‘readme.txt’ file be the password?

Roger Knights
November 22, 2011 11:43 pm

And the response of the second Michael Mann, to the Guardian today (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/22/fresh-hacked-climate-science-emails) is textbook paranoia. He describes the person/people who released the latest batch of CRU emails as: “agents doing the dirty bidding of the fossil fuel industry …”

And they stole his strawberries too!

Jimmy Haigh
November 22, 2011 11:49 pm

Danielle Westerbank says:
November 22, 2011 at 10:56 pm
Danielle. You remind me of the story of Louis Armstrong, when he was asked what jazz was, replied: “Lady? If you gotta ask, you just ain’t got it”.

crosspatch
November 22, 2011 11:59 pm

I find one of the emails pertaining to Rob Swart fairly interesting. Seems he is really interesting in getting the correct “spin” on things and cranking up the alarmism. e.g. 4957.txt

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 12:06 am

Actually, I find many of the emails pertaining to Rob Swart interesting, as he seems to be pretty much completely concerned with spinning things in a political sense. Looks like he is good for “the cause”.

petermue
November 23, 2011 12:16 am

I like the WP comments:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/climategate-20-do-new-emails-undermine-global-warming-science/2011/11/22/gIQArptGmN_blog.html
Or, as MIT climate scientist Kerry Emanuel said in an essay published by the National Association of Scholars, the emails demonstrated scientists being human, frankly discussing the quality of their peers’ work, usually nobly but with the occasional lapse:
… the emails in question were semi-private correspondence among scientists …

Semi-private… LOL
Sounds like semi-pregnant, or semi-dead… or semi-truth.

Larry in Texas
November 23, 2011 12:26 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am
I wonder who this troll really is. If you want open and honest intellectual debate, tell us who you really are and where stands your affiliation.
As for the so-called “Conservative War on Science,” I have to laugh at the observation. I know a lot of engineers and scientists, many of whom have posted artfully on this website (and no, mr. physicist, there has been little – if any – cherry-picking, slogan-shouting, or witch-hunting among them), who are quite legitimately concerned about the state of science in general and climate science in particular, and the fact that there are a number of people in government who seem to want to control not only the process, but the results. The conservative war is not on science itself, simply bad science and bogus science put to political ends. You, on the other hand, seem to have sold out for a mess of porridge.
The claim that conservatives “war” upon science is just another bogus ploy by those who seek to place control of everyday life on the planet in the hands of a relatively few technocrats and bureaucrats, rather than ordinary people. I tire of egos like yourself, mr. physicist, who claim to know better than I how I should live. Enough! Mr. physicist, you are a dunderhead.

PositivePaul
November 23, 2011 12:37 am

Getting paid to officially falsify the records must attract some kind of penalty surely. So which courtroom do we approach? The ABC or The Australian?

November 23, 2011 12:49 am

>>
Roger Knights says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:43 pm
And they stole his strawberries too!
<<
The mental image this gives me is of Captain Queeg clicking those steel balls in his hand.
Jim

Spector
November 23, 2011 12:50 am

RE: Dave Wendt says: (November 22, 2011 at 9:42 pm)
“What in your understanding is the residence time of a photon of infrared energy emitted from the earth which is absorbed by a molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere? There are number of physicists among the community of commentors here. How about we do a short poll? How many of you guys or your colleagues in the physics community would use “heat trapping” as an analogy of what occurs in the radiative forcing that is supposedly the basis of the CAGW conjecture?”
The following diagram would seem to indicate that CO2 has a relatively minor role in radiative forcing. I see a primary CO2 hole at about 667 kayzers (cycles per centimeter, cm-¹) that occupies about ten percent of the bandwidth and a minor ozone hole at 1111 kayzers, but curiously, no holes due to H2O–the primary greenhouse gas in the lower troposphere.
Comparison of Radiative Forcing for 300 PPM and 600 PPM
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the Atmosphere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png

Jimbo
November 23, 2011 12:54 am

Yes!
Most of us suspected there were more emails due to the language used in the first release. Our suspicions have been confirmed. Are there still more?
Cue Lord Oxburgh and whitewash team 2.0. ;O)

Patrick Davis
November 23, 2011 12:54 am

“Dave Wendt says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:42 pm”
Exactly! This is one question no alarmist I have asked has been able to answer.

Robert
November 23, 2011 1:03 am

There’s no “Conservative War on Science” but there sure is a “progressive” war on truth.

smr
November 23, 2011 1:05 am

#666
> > I will be emailing the journal to tell them I’m having
> >nothing more to do with it until they
> > rid themselves of this troublesome editor. A CRU person is on the
> >editorial board, but papers
> > get dealt with by the editor assigned by Hans von Storch.
> >
> > Cheers
> > Phil

Editor
November 23, 2011 1:21 am

Some material has apparently been removed from UEA computers, and is now held privately by Jones and Briffa. Surely that does not put it out of range of FOI – perhaps someone needs to get an FOI application in pronto. (It should of course be sufficient for UEA to be alerted to the fact that material that belongs to them has been removed, thus causing them to retrieve it, but somehow I suspect it would not happen quite like that.)

November 23, 2011 1:21 am

>>
Larry in Texas says:
November 23, 2011 at 12:26 am
A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 7:51 am
I wonder who this troll really is.
<<
His first post was so content free, that the “bot” claim seemed to hold some merit. However, his later posts seem more troll-like than bot-like. I think he may have been Irwin Allen’s science advisor for the TV series “Lost in Space.” One of my favorite “Lost in Space” robot nonsense quotes is:
“Warning! The craft is surrounded by a force field in the fifth dimension, which is mathematically impossible.”
Doesn’t this sound just like “A physicist?”
Jim

wayne
November 23, 2011 1:32 am

After reading through a hundred or so emails, what stands out the most is that all of IPCC’s thousands of pages is nothing but sophisticated curve-fitting on a grandiose scale, with hundreds of instigators busily filling it, and very crafty I must add. But seems the people guiding this wagon, giving the orders, is always UCAR, NCAR or UEA. Why? Why do these entities have such ultimate power?
Of this fitting, I don’t want to imply proper curve fitting, as improper as that is per proper science, but curve fitting to match a preconceived warming trend. If it doesn’t go up, that’s a bad model run and clearly needs further adjustments of course. And what you take away after reading all of this is… this is nuts! this is not science, not even close.
For instance, in 0851 it is says:

Tmax = A + B ln(S)
which implies odd results for very low sensitivity. Instead, I have fitted
a relationship of the form
Tmax = A [S**n]
which gives Tmax = 0 when S = 0.

That’s right, that will fix it, now let’s just pick and choose different equations of all things to fit. That takes the cake and you should get my message. You keep seeing this type of subtle fiddling and fitting scattered everywhere within the words in these e-mails. Sometimes it is even picking-and-choosing entire peer-reviewed papers to support some other related relationship fit the cause, always picked for the warmest results. See some of Phil Jones emails.
Should make any real scientist sick. I have kept skeptical of other skeptics on this very matter but now I see what they have saying all along. Yes, sorry to be harsh, but, that’s all IPCC reports are, fancy ‘scientific’ trash. Can’t trust a bit of it, they are contaminated by the methods, but not necessarily the data.

Robert Clemenzi
November 23, 2011 1:37 am

from Phil Jones Tue, 16 Nov 1999
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual
land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999
for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with
data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.

Michael
November 23, 2011 1:50 am

I just had to chime in on this joy’s occasion after seeing the initial report on Drudge.
Tis the season;
Christmas by Heineken – Let It Snow / Best ad

Bulldust
November 23, 2011 1:53 am

Ironically that episode of Seinfeld is playing as a rerun in Australia tonight (The Implant). Correlation does not prove causation of course.

Michael
November 23, 2011 1:54 am

This thread will definitely go over 1,000 comments.

Corey S.
November 23, 2011 2:04 am

This would be interesting to McI:
http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/2/FOIA/mail/2274.txt
From: Hume Matthew Mr (ACAD)
Sent: Wednesday, August 05, 2009 3:16 PM
To: Palmer Dave Mr (LIB)
Cc: Walker Alan Dr (ACAD)
Subject: RE: FOI/EIR request [FOI_09-69]
Hi Dave,
We all just had a very good laugh at Phil’s comment “We do sometime ignore the
Registry advice”… If this is going to have the kind of publicity that you
suggest, I would prefer if you do not quote ANY of his answer to question 1.
The UEA actually has a very strict policy on entering into confidentiality
agreements, however as Phil so blithely admits, a handful of academics take it
upon themselves to foul things up!
As you will note from points 1 & 2 of our policy; no UEA employee, except
members of our office, has the right to sign anything on behalf of the
university – the problem is that funders/other parties can be sneaky by
sending the agreement in the name of the academic.
Our policy is:-
Someone from the Commercialisation & Enterprise Team should approve and sign
all Confidentiality Agreements:
only our staff have the legal authority to sign agreements on behalf of the
University
all agreements should be between the University of East Anglia and the party
requesting the agreement (not an individual academic or school)
we will negotiate with the other party on any issues within the document that
may be contentious
by doing this we will ensure you the best protection of your IP rights
(In special circumstances, authorisation may be obtained from the
Commercialisation & Enterprise Team allowing you to sign the agreement
yourself. Such authorisation must always be obtained in advance, will only be
valid for a specific instance, and the standard university agreement must be
used without amendment – unless we have authorised an amendment)
In all cases, a copy of the fully signed confidentiality agreement must be
retained in our office.
FYI – we are currently finishing off the final touches to our new intranet
pages – there will be a page on CDA’s with this info on it.
Also, I am away on holiday next week (10th -14th), so if you do any more info
on our policy regarding agreements etc, please contact Anne Donaldson, one of
our Commercialisation Managers ([3]a.donaldson@uea.ac.uk).
Thanks
Matt.

Michael
November 23, 2011 2:05 am

You people on WUWT may not know it, but you destroyed the third leg of the hypothetical power stool of the new world order.

phil
November 23, 2011 2:30 am

TEAM AT WORK: Fri, 11 Jul 2003: http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=5271
> At 07:51 04/07/REDACTEDTom Wigley wrote:
> >Mike (Mann),
> >I agree that Kinne seems like he could be a deFreitas clone. However, what
> >would be our legal position if we were to openly and extensively tell
> >people to avoid the journal?
> >Tom.
> >Michael E. Mann wrote:
> >>Thanks Mike
> >>It seems to me that this “Kinne” character’s words are disingenuous, and
> >>he probably supports what De Freitas is trying to do. It seems clear we
> >>have to go above him.
> >>I think that the community should, as Mike H has previously suggested in
> >>this eventuality, terminate its involvement with this journal at all
> >>levels–reviewing, editing, and submitting, and leave it to wither way
> >>into oblivion and disrepute,
> >>Thanks,
> >>mike

TrevorG
November 23, 2011 2:31 am

#4039
So, that’s how a crude fax from Jack Eddy became the definitive IPCC record on the last millennium!
> 4. Ray Bradley sent this text:
>
> I believe this graph originated in a (literally) grey piece of
> literature that Jack Eddy used to publish called “Earth Quest”. It
> was designed for, and distributed to, high school teachers. In one
> issue, he had a fold-out that showed different timelines, Cenozoic,
> Quaternary, last 100ka, Holocene, last millennium, last century etc.
> The idea was to give non-specialists a perspective on the earth’s
> climate history. I think this idea evolved from the old NRC
> publication edited by L. Gates, then further elaborated on by Tom Webb
> in the book I edited for UCAR, /Global Changes of the Past/. (This
> was an outcome of the wonderful Snowmass meeting Jack master-minded
> around 1990).
>
> I may have inadvertently had a hand in this millennium graph! I
> recall getting a fax from Jack with a hand-drawn graph, that he asked
> me to review. Where he got his version from, I don’t know. I think I
> scribbled out part of the line and amended it in some way, but have no
> recollection of exactly what I did to it. And whether he edited it
> further, I don’t know. But as it was purely schematic (& appears to
> go through ~1950) perhaps it’s not so bad. I note, however, that in
> the more colourful version of the much embellished graph that Stefan
> circulated (
> http://www.politicallyincorrect.de/2006/11/klimakatastrophe_was_ist_wirkl_1.html
> the end-point has been changed to 2000, which puts quite a different
> spin on things. They also seem to have fabricated a scale for the
> purported temperature changes. In any case, the graph has no
> objective basis whatsoever; it is purely a “visual guess” at what
> happened, like something we might sketch on a napkin at a party for
> some overly persistent inquisitor….. (so make sure you don’t leave
> such things on the table…).
>
> What made the last millennium graph famous (notorious!) was that Chris
> Folland must have seen it and reproduced it in the 1995 IPCC chapter
> he was editing. I don’t think he gave a citation and it thus appeared
> to have the imprimatur of the IPCC. Having submitted a great deal of
> text for that chapter, I remember being really pissed off that Chris
> essentially ignored all the input, and wrote his own version of the
> paleoclimate record in that volume.
>
> There are other examples of how Jack Eddy’s grey literature
> publication was misused. In a paper in /Science/ by Zielinski et al.
> (1994) [v.264, p.448-452]–attached– they reproduced [in Figure 1c] a
> similarly schematic version of Holocene temperatures giving the
> following citation, “Taken from J. A. Eddy and R. S. Bradley,
> Earth-quest 5 (insertREDACTEDas modified from J. T. Houghton, G. J.
> Jenkins, J. J. Ephraums, Climate Change, The IPCC Scientific
> Assessment (Cambridge Univ. Press, CambridgeREDACTED
> But I had nothing to do with that one!
>
> So, that’s how a crude fax from Jack Eddy became the definitive IPCC
> record on the last millennium!

Michael
November 23, 2011 2:34 am

Hide the Decline

Jockdownsouth
November 23, 2011 2:42 am

Richard Black’s BBC article is now open for comments. Guardianistas have been swarming all over it using terms such as “contrarians”, “neocon political activists”, “evil Murdoch Corporation”, “nutters”, “Climategate conspirators” etc. Any comment which is even mildly sceptical has been marked down.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15846886#dna-comments

MrV
November 23, 2011 2:45 am

Just when you were hoping to get a break (rest) Anthony …

Alec, aka Daffy Duck
November 23, 2011 2:52 am

Here’s a gem! Love the way Phil closes this email, “This message will self destruct in 10 seconds!” LOL!!!!
Mike, Ray, Caspar,
REDACTEDA couple of things – don’t pass on either.
REDACTEDHave seen you’re RC bet. Not entirely sure this is the right way to go,
but it will drum up some discussion.
Anyway Mike and Caspar have seen me present possible problems with the
SST data (in the 1940s/50s and since about 2000). The first of these will appear
in Nature on May 29. There should be a News and Views item with this article
by Dick Reynolds. The paper concludes by pointing out that SSTs now (or since
about 2000, when the effect gets larger) are likely too low. This likely won’t
get corrected quickly as it really needs more overlap to increase confidence.
Bottom line for me is that it appears SSTs now are about 0.1 deg C too cool
globally. Issue is that the preponderance of drifters now (which measure SST
better but between 0.1 and 0.2 lower than ships) mean anomalies are low
relative to the ship-basedREDACTEDbase.
This also means that the SST base the German modellers used in their runs
was likely too warm by a similar amount. This applies to all modellers, reanalyses etc.
There will be a lot of discussion of the global T series with people saying we can’t
even measure it properly now.
The 1940s/50s problem with SSTs (the May 29 paper) also means there will be
warmer SSTs for about 10 years. This will move the post-40s cooling to a little
later – more in line with higher sulphate aerosol loading in the late 50s and 1960s70s.
The paper doesn’t provide a correction. This will come, but will include the addition
of loads more British SSTs for WW2, which may very slightly cool the WW2 years.
More British SST data have also been digitized for the late 1940s. Budget
constraints mean that only about half the RN log books have been digitized. Emphasis
has been given to the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean log books.
As an aside, it is unfortunate that there are few in the Pacific. They have digitized
all the logbooks of the ships journeys from the Indian Ocean south of Australia and NZ
to Seattle for refits. Nice bit of history here – it turns out that most of the ships
are
US ones the UK got under the Churchill/Roosevelt deal in early 1940. All the RN bases
in South Africa, India and Australia didn’t have parts for these ships for a few years.
So the German group would be stupid to take your bet. There is a likely
ongoing negative volcanic event in the offing!
REDACTEDYou can delete this attachment if you want. Keep this quiet also, but
this is the person who is putting in FOI requests for all emails Keith and Tim
have written and received re Ch 6 of AR4. We think we’ve found a way
around this.
I can’t wait for the Wengen review to come out with the Appendix showing what
that 1990 IPCC Figure was really based on.
The Garnaut review appears to be an Australian version of the Stern Report.
This message will self destruct in 10 seconds!
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=231

dave ward
November 23, 2011 2:55 am

The story gets a mention in the local Norwich newspapers this morning. The same could not be said for the original leak, which barely got a mention, and even then not for several days.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/education/more_emails_posted_in_climategate_row_involving_university_of_east_anglia_in_norwich_1_1134073
http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/more_emails_posted_in_climategate_row_involving_university_of_east_anglia_in_norwich_1_1134073

David L
November 23, 2011 2:55 am

This gang, referred to as “The Team”, are unbelievable. I spent many years as a successful academic researcher (defined by garnering grants and publishing papers) and I guarantee you that if someone hacked mine and my colleague’s e-mails, you wouldn’t see anything like this. We did our research and published our findings. There was no threatening reviewers, stacking the review process, ousting editors, claiming one thing in the e-mails yet publishing another thing in the peer review. Having lived in that world I do understand the culture…and there are some “funny” things going on in general (relative to non-academic culture), but the “The Team” are really a gang of thugs. It’s evident in these e-mails and I don’t think there’s a context to justify it.
And now I work in Pharma where we have a records retention policy to delete various things at various times. However, if there’s legal action whole classes of e-mails and documents are not to be deleted under serious penalty. This is a private industry and our e-mails are open for search and seizure. These glorified public welfare recipients in academia think they are above all that? And they hide behing “context”???? Give me a break. Where there’s smoke there’s fire.

MrV
November 23, 2011 3:05 am

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=788
This shows how co-operative they are on reproducing data I think!

MrV
November 23, 2011 3:11 am

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=10362
Here is some Kiwi Cheerleaders.
Mike appears on the TV authoritive like the pope apparently.

David L
November 23, 2011 3:12 am

wayne says:
November 23, 2011 at 1:32 am
“After reading through a hundred or so emails, what stands out the most is that all of IPCC’s thousands of pages is nothing but sophisticated curve-fitting on a grandiose scale, with hundreds of instigators busily filling it, and very crafty I must add.”….
I agree with you. I spent a lot of years fitting mathematical models to data. You can fit nearly unlimited numbers of mathematical models to any data set and get the same R-square. I always attempted to fit some fundamental principle or, if that was lacking, the simplest model possible. With the simplest model, this is only good for interpolating points within the fit. Unless fundamental science is known, you cannot extrapolate the trend outside the bounds of the fit. The problem is that the simple model fitting procedure is difficult or impossible to develop the sound underlying fundamental principles even though the quality of the fit looks tempting. Classic example is the ideal gas law, joining the two relationships of pressure to volume and temperature. These work on a small scale of values but break down at larger values. The fundamental physical relationships are simply not linear.
You can fit their data to a series of sines and cosines, or even an nth degree polynomial and you’ll get an excellent fit to the current data…but it will also predict that the data will oscillate up and down in the future. I don’t see them applying those types of fits. Why not, cyclic behaviour would be expected in a climate system.
The reliance of the Team’s “science” on these simple mathematic models to predict the future is grounds enough to call their science bogus. I scientifically don’t need to look any further honestly.

November 23, 2011 3:13 am

~/Downloads/FOIA$ ../../rarcrack all.7z –threads 12 –type 7z
RarCrack! 0.2 by David Zoltan Kedves (kedazo@gmail.com)
INFO: the specified archive type: 7z
INFO: cracking all.7z, status file: all.7z.xml
Probing: ‘2Nm’ [4880 pwds/sec]
Probing: ‘6B5’ [4871 pwds/sec]
Probing: ‘aoR’ [4872 pwds/sec]
Probing: ‘ecN’ [4876 pwds/sec]
Probing: ‘i0Z’ [4881 pwds/sec]


😉
This might take me a few trillion years, but I’ll tear this universe a new black hole if I have to find that password!
(Actually, no, I’ll run it for a wee while and stop it – just having a bit of fun – I know there’s no chance of cracking this if it’s AES256 encrypted – even running this on my AMD Phenom 4-core beastie is like trying to break the Enigma code with an abacus – it can be done, but it’ll take a LONG time to do so. And by long, I mean, like never.)
Tee hee.

November 23, 2011 3:25 am

They’re tellin’ me the world is warmin’ up
And my minivan’s part of the cause
And the science is settled so it’s time for big change
To our economy and our laws
Well if the science is settled then tell me why their
Computer models can’t agree
And why the world’s cooled down for the past several years
While they’re hidin’ their data from me
Despite their erudition
And academic pedigree
The Best and the Brightest look instead
Like a box of dim bulbs to me
They’d put us in the soup lines over
Parts-per-billion probabilities
The Best and the Brightest look instead
Like a box of dim bulbs to me …
… Like a box of dim bulbs to me

MrV
November 23, 2011 3:26 am
MrV
November 23, 2011 3:30 am

Could this be the holy grail.
Phil as the chairmen of alarmist selectors!
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=8447

Andrew
November 23, 2011 3:33 am

Ill bet that BEST used this data from Jones etc to invent current data RAW data was and will never be given as it shows no warming my bet anyway

Corey S.
November 23, 2011 3:34 am

According to Jones, the raw data isn’t destroyed either. After getting an email from Ben Santer, he says still has the 1980 data from DoE reports:
http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/2/FOIA/mail/1192.txt
cc: “Phil Jones” , “Ben Santer”
date: Sun, 11 Oct 2009 18:03:13 +0100 (BST)
from: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk
subject: Re: Your comments on the latest CEI/Michaels gambit
to: “Rick Piltz”
Rick,
What you’ve put together seems fine from a quick read. I’m in Lecce in
the heal of Italy till Tuesday. I should be back in the UK by
Wednesday.
The original raw data are not lost either. I could reconstruct what we
had from some DoE reports we published in the mid-1980s. I would start
with the GHCN data. I know that the effort would be a complete wate of
time though. I may get around to it some time. As you’ve said, the
documentation of what we’ve done is all in the literature.
I think if it hadn’t been this issue, the CEI would have dreamt up
something else!
Cheers
Phil
> Phil and Ben–
>
> Thanks for writing. I appreciate very much what you’re saying.
>
> I’m going to be posting some entries on this matter on the Climate
> Science Watch Web site. I’m sure others will weigh in on it in
> various venues (Steve Schneider has supplied me with an on-the-record
> quote), and I suppose that a more formal response by the relevant
> scientists is likely eventually to become part of the EPA docket as
> part of their rejection of the CEI petition. But that will drag on,
> and meanwhile CEI and Michaels will demagogue their allegations, as
> they do with everything. No way to prevent that. But I would like to
> expedite documenting some immediate pushback, helping to set the
> record straight and put what CEI and Michaels are up to in perspective.
>
> I have taken the liberty of editing what you wrote just a bit (and
> adding some possible URL links and writing-out of acronyms), in the
> hope that, with your permission and with any revisions or additions
> you might care to make, we could post your comments. This requires
> no clearance other than you and me. I would draft appropriate text to
> provide context. Please take a look at this and RSVP:
>
> Ben’s comment:
>
> As I see it, there are two key issues here.
>
> First, the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) and Pat Michaels
> are arguing that Phil Jones and colleagues at the CRU [Climatic
> Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK ] willfully,
> intentionally, and suspiciously “destroyed” some of the raw surface
> temperature data used in the construction of the gridded surface
> temperature datasets.
>
> Second, the CEI and Pat Michaels contend that the CRU surface
> temperature datasets provided the sole basis for IPCC “discernible
> human influence” conclusions.
>
> Both of these arguments are incorrect. First, there was no
> intentional destruction of the primary source data. I am sure that,
> over 20 years ago, the CRU could not have foreseen that the raw
> station data might be the subject of legal proceedings by the CEI and
> Pat Michaels. Raw data were NOT secretly destroyed to avoid efforts
> by other scientists to replicate the CRU and Hadley Centre-based
> estimates of global-scale changes in near-surface temperature.

Andrew
November 23, 2011 3:40 am

Over at dot.earth
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/22/a-new-batch-of-climate-e-mail-surfaces-ahead-of-treaty-talks/
100 to 1 against Revkin article gave up and changed subject .To his credit he appeared to start to admit that perhaps the skeptics were right in this case anyway

November 23, 2011 3:53 am

CLIMATEGATE – ACT 2
Please be seated for our stageshow
We are about to start act two,
Of the greatest farce in history
Showing the corruption of the Cru;
Let’s reprise the cast of actors
For those who do not know the plot,
The setting is East Anglia
Where they have hit the grants jackpot.
Here’s Professors Jones and Briffa
Who helped invent the Hockey Stick,
By manipulating data
For Mike Manns Nature Trick;
The Freedom of Information
Was just a doddle to avoid,
With connivance in high places
And all the Fourth Estate on-side.
But it does not stop in England
We must now cross the ‘Warming’ pond,
For this Hydra-headed monster
Has spread its tentacles beyond;
The accepted bounds of decency
Upon which science once was found,
Now it’s dependant on the dollar
The worthless euro and the pound.
Enter Trenbet and John Holdren
Obama’s esteemed science Czar,
The former – a well known boxer
The latter holding views bizarre;
Jonnie is a Malthusian
Who would decide just who should breed,
He’s also an Algorian
Who spreads the Global Warming Creed.
It’s just Act Two of Climategate
There will be two more acts to see,
We await the leading actor
The Chairman of IPCC;
He is cooking books in Durban
Watts Up With That – for it is true?
Our new Saviour of the Planet-
From that vile poison Co2.
Pat Healy

markus
November 23, 2011 3:56 am

Take this as a comment.
How come when you post something on the Skeptical Science Blog that isn’t warmist, even if it is a balanced statement gets deleted, but on this blog all sides of the argument are aired?

Gabby
November 23, 2011 4:06 am

Exhibit A as to why the Original unedited Data is needed:
~ “I swear I pulled every trick out of my sleeve trying to milk something out of that. ”
~ “I don’t think it’d be productive to try and juggle the chronology statistics any more than I already have”
#3998

pwl
November 23, 2011 4:07 am

Dr. Michael Mann, wayward climate scientist not doing science but political games, now confirmed with his own incriminating email: “1485> Mann: the important thing is to make sure they’re loosing the PR battle. That’s what the site [Real Climate] is about.
Evidently Mann’s Real Climate site is a political machine not a science site. Good to know. Thanks for this very important clear confirmation, Dr. Mann, of what we already suspected.
http://foia2011.org/

Harriet Harridan
November 23, 2011 4:20 am

You scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours….
“Hi Phil,
I hope things are going well these days, and that the recent round of attacks have died
down. seems like some time since I’ve heard from you.
Please see below: Gavin was wondering if there is any update in status on this?
By the way, still looking into nominating you for an AGU award, I’ve been told that the
Ewing medal wouldn’t be the right one. Let me know if you have any particular options
you’d like me to investigate…

thanks,
mike
REDACTED- Original MessageREDACTED
Subject: Re: Even more on Loehle’s 2000 year climate analysis”
From: http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=130

Gabby
November 23, 2011 4:24 am

GREAT NEWS: The Dept of Energy is funding Phil Jones! #1765

Alexander
November 23, 2011 4:36 am

Is it perhaps possible to move the “fold” way up in this sticky post, so that it’s easier to find new posts beneath it? I think one paragraph, perhaps the most recent update, would be sufficient. I’d really appreciate it! Thanks.

Al Gormless
November 23, 2011 4:41 am

Here’s some REAL climate science pointing to an inconvenient truth for the warmists, which uses simple not sports-massaged statistics and make-up:
This expose will not rest until at least climategate 46.0!
HAHA!
I even include my full workings and raw data unlike all the tax-spongers (I mean ‘climate scientists’):
Climategate 1&2 + 220000 emails to come at 5000 per release

lester
November 23, 2011 4:51 am

There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi 173-6 (1883)

Alec, aka Daffy Duck
November 23, 2011 4:53 am

Tweeking The Guardian:
letters@guardian.co.uk
UEA should demand return of computer records taken by UEA employee
University of East Anglia is rightly upset with hackers taking their computer records, however UEA should be doubly upset that one of their own employees appears to have been also taking the university’s computer records.
In one of the released email UEA employee Keith Briffa writes “UEA does not hold the very vast majority of mine anyway which I copied onto private storage after the completion of the IPCC task.” [http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=2044 ]
Just as the hacker stole from UEA, it appears the Mr. Briffa also took records that rightfully belonged to stole university. Mr. Briffa notes that he kept those records “….which I copied onto private storage”.
Knowing now that those records still exist, UEA should demand that Mr. Briffa return all the records, and UEA should immediately provide copies of the records covered in the freedom of information request to all parties whom Mr. Briffa wrongfully denied access.
Alec ….
…….
Fairfax, VA 22032
703…….

Alec J
November 23, 2011 4:53 am

More bitchiness.
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=6455
#1213
Scroll down to the comments in Caps.

Gabby
November 23, 2011 4:57 am

#0344 is a great e-mail chain on UAE and FOI strategery.

Alec J
November 23, 2011 4:58 am

#1175 Dave Palmer
On phone to ICO at moment awaiting input on the section 77 question – am arguing that
taking the files off was to meet with our contraction obligations under which we received
it and to repair what we perceive as a lapse in security….
They have now stated they don’t think the removal of the data is in contravention of
section 77 in that the sole purpose of the removal was NOT to deny the requester his
legitimate right of access to the information. I did tell them that that our intention was
stated in our response to Mr. McIntyre; namely to deny him the information on the basis of
EIR Reg. 12(5)(f) & the public interest & this did not alter their position.
This still leaves us with a PR problem but eliminates the legal problem….
Cheers, Dave

November 23, 2011 5:02 am

A physicist says:
November 22, 2011 at 12:55 pm
“It’s fair to say, however, that the folks who understand the mathematics of climate change science

I just read this quote from our resident physicist. As a mathematician, I would like to correct his ignorance. The BEAUTY of mathematics is that it does not change from one discipline to another. 2+2 equals 4 in chemistry, biology, and geology. So your statement is patently false. Perhaps you meant to say “for those who understand mathematics’. The only way the statement you made could be correct is if climate science math is a sham.

RockyRoad
November 23, 2011 5:17 am

Lee says:
November 22, 2011 at 10:08 pm

Release all the emails, whats with this crap encryption.
release it all or else its just crap.
Sorry, as it stands, couldnt care less anymore…
Release it all or else I state to everyone ‘load of hogwash’. Actually I already do this now, anybody that deliberately limits the release of information is not to be trusted or given the time of day.
Cheers.
Lee.

Just one question: Who should “Release it all or else…”? Are you referring to Phil Jones (who claims he can’t find his data or methodology), or are you referring to Michael Mann (who is fighting with UVa against the release of his correspondence while at UVa–a public university)?
Or maybe you’re talking about the UEA–they have ALL of these emails and other documents but they’re anything but open. Might you be talking about James Hansen? He’s been fighting requests for open disclosure for years–and now we find he’s a tax dodger (among other things).
These folks have all deliberately limited the release of information. They’ve repeatedly fought FOIA requests. They work in secret and hide the details of their work from all but their “Team”.
And you’re right–they are not to be trusted or given the time of day.

Mann Bearpig
November 23, 2011 5:34 am

ok, so you download the file and have 5000 text files. What can you do with them ?
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=N47O1293
Email Viewer. Just enter the folder location where the text files are, Then the program will list the emails and you can view them normally. Has navigation buttons, search tool.
Let me know what you think. It is free but Contributions would be welcomed 🙂

Kaboom
November 23, 2011 5:37 am

Cram Unfortunately, for all his analytical skill and calling out of bs, Jon Stewart is a firm believer in AGW (as well as woefully uninformed about Europe, but that’s another subject entirely)

motsatt
November 23, 2011 6:06 am

For anyone using linux..
http://www.commandlinefu.com/commands/browse
for loads of clever commands to handle all these files.

Mann Bearpig
November 23, 2011 6:07 am

Version with textwrapping ..
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=PJX17WB0

Jean Parisot
November 23, 2011 6:11 am

5336 — WWII, Aug1945, and instrumentation changes and a startling admission at the end:
> And as for the dip in 1945:
> Fig 2 shows the residual (ie with the COWL or ENSO time series
> removed) global-mean land and ocean time series. The point here is
> that the large dip in Aug 1945 does not show up in the land data.
>
>
> My impression from your emails last week is that the dip is almost
> certainly due to changes in instrumentation during the war. But it’s
> also my impression that the specific reasons for the dip are not yet
> known. It’s possible that the dip is offset by spurious rises in SSTs
> at the start of the war. But this isn’t certain. And even so, there is
> a large drop in SSTs between the period before the war (1939) and the
> period after the war (1945). To my eye, the residual ocean time series
> in Fig. 3 suggests temperatures ratcheted downwards spuriously in
> 1945.
>
>
> In our view, the dip in Aug 1945 is very important and warrants being
> highlighted in the literature. In fact, once you know it’s there, it’s
> hard to view any time series of global-mean temperatures and not
> wonder how different it would appear if the dip was not there. For
> example, Fig. 4 shows the raw and residual global-mean temperature
> time series assuming the 0.3 K drop in Aug 1945 is spurious. I realize
> the figure is crude, and it might not make it into the paper. But the
> point is that you would get a very, very different impression of 20th
> century temperature trends if the dip proves to be an artifact of the
> end of the war.
>
>
> So our main point regarding the drop in Aug 1945 is this: if we assume
> the dip is spurious, then the global-warming of the past century would
> be at least ~0.3 K larger than currently thought, and global-mean
> temperatures would have risen steadily throughout the past century.
Risen steadily = no AGW signature

Shevva
November 23, 2011 6:23 am

Sorry computers on the fritz managed to copy before the web browser crashed so don’t have the exact file #, the PR machine that is Real Climate shows up alot :-
thanks for forwarding Phil,
Its amazing how much nonsense they are able to pack into a few pages. The Beck Co2 stuff
we just dealt w/ last week, and most of the other issues have been dealt with in the
past at RC. However, if folks think this is getting enough attention, maybe we need a
specific RC post debunking this.
I’ve copied to Gavin for his thoughts too.

November 23, 2011 6:27 am

The only good thing I’ve seen from these e-mails is the fact that members of the team that were not cc’d will now see exactly what other team members actually thought of them.
For example, you can bet that Mann didn’t see this email (out of context or not) until now:
“…Cook:
I am afraid that Mike is defending something that increasingly can not be defended. He is investing too much personal stuff in this and not letting the science move ahead…”
Maybe he should ask Cook to explain the full context of THAT message…

Jason
November 23, 2011 6:31 am

This chapter precedes the chapters on modeling and prediction. Therefore a
focus of the state of knowledge of the “processes” is that these are the
ingredients of models and what goes into models reflects our understanding
and the technology limitations. By the latter I mean restrictions through
space and time resolution, and so forth. The key questions, it seems to me,
concern the roles of convection and precipitation in climate and the global
atmospheric circulation, so that heat, moisture and momentum transports are
important, and what they mean for the water vapor, cloud, precipitation and
latent heating that result.
You may be interested in a study I was involved in on related matters:
Dai, A., F. Giorgi and K. E. Trenberth, 1999: Observed and model simulated
precipitation diurnal cycles over the contiguous United States.
J. Geophys. Res., \vol 104, (in press, March).
This study documents the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the United
States and how well it is simulated in high resolution regional (Giorgi’s)
models with different convective parameterizations. We have explored various
convection parameterizations over the United States in a high resolution
regional model and shown that none do it right. In particular all tend to
kick off convection prematurely compared with the real world and instability
does not build up adequately. Premature cloud formation occurs in the models
as a consequence and this prevents the correct solar heating from occurring,
impacting the development of the continental-scale “sea breeze” and
associated convergence at the surface which acts to trigger convection. No
known scheme can deal with the summer U.S. precipitation diurnal cycle.
I think this scale interaction problem is also involved in the failure of
models to deal with the Madden Julian Oscillation successfully. So this
stuff is intended to provoke you.
Other topics we listed under these categories include: lapse rate, vertical
coupling, model sensitivity, extremes, and orography.
Overall, we need some sense of how well we know these things and how limiting
the lack of knowledge might be on model simulations. Of course
parameterizations are not supposed to get the details and exact sequences
right but they are supposed to get the average effects right, so perhaps the
details don’t matter.
The first draft of the chapter is due by 14 May. This means I need your
contributions by 10 April if at all possible. (In fact I can’t use it much
before then owing to other travel commitments I have). Please copy Ray
Pierrehumbert on any responses.
Many thanks
I would appreciate an acknowledgement of this before I leave for New Zealand
next Tuesday, if possible.
Regards
Kevin

A physicist
November 23, 2011 6:38 am

A physicist says: “That’s the practical reason why CEOs, military strategists, farmers, fishers, and hunters, not to mention most mathematicians, scientists, and engineers, are rejecting the peculiar brand of skepticism [that is, skepticism founded upon cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting] that is increasingly practiced here on Watt’s Up With That.”

Mac the Knife says: “You empty bandwaggoning, bloviating git! I grew up farming. Done and still do a lot of fishing and hunting, as well. I hold 2 engineering degrees and have worked as an engineer and scientist for +24 years. Yes – I’ve done the things you just talk about. I and many folks like me reject the tragically flawed, criminally bastardized, and scientifically unsupported hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming. We reject similarly impaired folks like you, that spout ad hom attacks while providing nothing of merit to the discussion. We know crap when we see it being shoveled and smell it. Comes, in part, from growing up on a farm…”

Not all WUWT posts/comments are substantially founded upon cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting … but regrettably an increasing fraction of them are. However:
   • cherry-picking of data gets harder as data gets better,
   • fervent witch-hunts are finding … no witches, and
   • the politics-first slogan-shouting is ringing hollow.
On other forums, sober-minded folks talk seriously about the challenges of energy, technology, and climate change, these sites include The Oil Drum, Season’s End, Republicans for Environmental Protection, Skeptical Science, GreenBiz, etc. And needless to say, the Department of Defense’s Quadrennial Defense Review 2010 tackles these climate-and-energy issues unflinchingly — as will every future Quadrennial Defense Review. For the simple reason that the realities of our times demands it.
Obviously there will always be plenty of folks folks whose skepticism (on any subject) is founded mainly upon cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting; increasingly the main role of forums like WUWT is to provide a comforting echo-chamber within which cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting are viewed as praiseworthy activities.
Meanwhile, the rest of the planet is busy creating humanity’s future.

docB
November 23, 2011 6:39 am

In the documents file: statements.doc, I see…
>Re: Statement of European Scientists on Actions to Protect Global Climate
>Dear Colleague, Attached is a draft Statement that has been informally drawn up by Joe >Alcamo, Rob Swart and Mike Hulme working in Europe on climate issues. Its main purpose is to >bolster or increase support for controls of emissions of greenhouse gases in European >countries in the period leading up to Kyoto. The Statement is intended to be from European >scientists, and is aimed towards governments, citizen groups, and media in European countries. >The statement has specific goals in specific countries:
>1. In European countries where the government supports controls of greenhouse emissions: In >these countries, certain government ministries and other climate stakeholders in the country are >trying to get the government to retreat on its policies before Kyoto. Here, the Statement is >intended to be used by the government and citizen groups via the national media to support its >position.
> 2. in european countries where the government does not support controls of greenhouse >emissions: here, the statement is intended to help citizen groups and other stakeholders in the >country to convince the government to support controls of emissions.
This is activist ‘science’, not impartial science. I presume, simply to secure more funding.

averagejoe
November 23, 2011 6:40 am

Maybe the algorithm is mike’s trick?

Latitude
November 23, 2011 6:41 am

At 10:10 31/07/2009, you wrote:
Dear all,
After the recent problems with ClimateAudit, Phil has asked for all
unnecessary files to be purged from the FTP server. You have a directory in /cru/ftp1/people. Please could you take a look to see what files need to remain there?
If you would like assistance with this, let me know. Please confirm by email when you’ve done it, so I can cross you off the list.
thanks
Mike
==================================================
http://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/phils-pre-cover-up/

November 23, 2011 6:48 am

Oh dear the warmists are in a flap ; once one accepts the documented evidence that CO2 is insignificant in warming the climate, all kinds of consequences follow logically

Doug
November 23, 2011 7:10 am

Henrythethird…
I agree, in email 0003, Ed Cook writes to Briffa:
“I agree that Phil and Mike are best left out of this. Bradley? Yeah,
he has done fuck-all except for the Bradley/Jones decadal series,
which he maintains has withstood the test of time. Typical posturing
on his part.”
This was in response to a comment that Briffa had made to Cook. I don’t know who Bradley is, but if anyone knows, they should forward this on to him. Stir, stir, stir.

David L
November 23, 2011 7:10 am

@You Guys are unreal on November 22, 2011 at 3:39 pm said:
“The Cause” = the cause of getting the world to sit up and take notice of the warming, future warming and detrimental effects thereof. Nothing sinister.
Instead of picking emails to bits, surely all the ‘skeptic’ side have to do is come up with evidence disproving the warming…
——————-
Your last sentence is completely wrong. Look up the scientific process. It is NOT the burden to disprove the theory…. It is the burden to PROVE it. The theory is stated, data is supplied (and picked apart)…. If the theory can survive then it is advanced. And there’s no statute of limitations on this either. The law of gravitational attraction was proposed in the 17th century and effectively challenged by Einstein in the 20th century.

Jean Parisot
November 23, 2011 7:14 am

4265, seems they practice the “hide the baseline” trick internally as well
Kevin Trenberth wrote:
Thanks Jim
Another typical UAH response though: every time we found something, they changed the
dataset so they could argue our findings were no longer relevant, but they did not ever
take care of the issues.

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 23, 2011 7:20 am

So, if these e-mails are the way they talk via e-mail, just think of how truthful they were one on one say in a car talking it over Mann to Man on the way to a conference where they would pick up an award check.

Jean Parisot
November 23, 2011 7:27 am

4269, those silly World Bankers didn’t realize that on a 10K timescale the current and “future” warming isn’t anomalous – had to drop the scale to manage the message.
If we wanted to put the 10,000 year record of Earth’s >> avg >>
temp on the cover of our World Bank Report….
results in
Need to draw the 1000 yr >> record on a World Bank cover asap

Jean Parisot
November 23, 2011 7:30 am

4270 — oh no, somebody got our data
The problem I have now is that the file that was accessed contains data
up to the end of 2002. This was for data that went into a publication that
appeared in the Journal of Climate in 2003. Since then we’ve added
lots more data. So they have a copy of the data from CRUTEM2. They do
not have CRUTEM3.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 7:34 am

LamontT says: “It’s sad “a physicist”, really apparently nothing more than a propagandist, doesn’t offer any actual arguments for her position but instead does nothing but spout empty psychobabble rhetoric that means nothing as if if were somehow a profound criticism. Really Miz “a propagandist” needs to present coherent logical arguments not just empty disenfranchised language …

LamontT, with respect, thoughtful conservative scientists like Barry Bickmore are doing a much better job of presenting “coherent logical arguments” than me!
Prof. Bickmore’s much-viewed lecture (on YouTube) titled “How to Avoid the Truth About Climate Change” summarizes clearly the logical arguments that you and many other posters are WUWT are (rightly) seeking. Prof. Bickmore’s lecture’s includes video clips of Newt Gingrich arguing too that AGW is real, serious, human-caused, and accelerating.
Nowadays, more-and-more thoughtful American conservatives are aligning with Prof. Bickmore’s brand of thoughtful conservatism.
Recommended.

Jean Parisot
November 23, 2011 7:37 am

4271 – isn’t model initialization still an issue, here is Mike and Phil talking about and some publication issues. Personally, I’m not sure where all the various model permutations show up.
The runs will get a huge hit from this. The only way
a coupled model can get a continued trend (without invoking an energy leak somewhere) is
when there is a terrible deep-ocean spin up available even for their present day
initialization, not to speak about the subsequent shock to pre-industrial conditions.
Did you really say 1.5 degrees? Wow, that is quite a bit

Editor
November 23, 2011 7:38 am

When I realized the Climategate 2009 Emails went back many years, one of the first things that occurred to me was there might be Emails from John Daly. He died before I became involved in the online climate debate, and that’s one of my main regrets. I won’t repeat one of Phil Jones’ comments from then, except to note Phil’s a rather nasty guy.
Two interesting Emails mention Daly. One I’ll excerpt in Willis’ most recent post.
The other is the following Email from Daly about tree rings. A lot of his writing style reminds of Willis’ – simple, direct and informative.
I’ve reformatted things to post better here and deleted most of the long list of people Daly sent this to. I left a few of the more obvious or meaningful names.
3826.txt:
date: Tue Feb 13 09:05:58 2001
from: Keith Briffa
subject: Fwd: Re: Hockey Sticks again
to: wigley
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 21:47:57 +1100
From: “John L. Daly”
To: Chick Keller
CC: “P. Dietze”, mmaccrac, Michael E Mann, rbradley, wallace, Thomas Crowley, Phil Jones, McKitrick, Nigel Calder, John Christy, Jim Goodridge, Fred Singer, k.briffa
Subject: Re: Hockey Sticks again
Dear Chick & all
[I think Chick Keller wrote:]

the first is Keith Briffa’s rather comprehensive treatment of getting climate variations from tree rings: Annual climate variability in the Holocene: “interpreting the message of ancient trees”, Quaternary Science Reviews, 19 (2000) 87-105. It should deal with many of the questions people raise about using them to determine temperatures.

Take this from first principles.
A tree only grows on land. That excludes 70% of the earth covered by water. A tree does no grow on ice. A tree does not grow in a desert. A tree does not grow on grassland-savannahs. A tree does not grow in alpine areas. A tree does not grow in the tundra We are left with perhaps 15% of the planet upon which forests grow/grew. That does not make any studies from tree rings global, or even hemispheric.
The width and density of tree rings is dependent upon the following variables which cannot be reliably separated from each other. sunlight – if the sun varies, the ring will vary. But not at night of course.
cloudiness – more clouds, less sun, less ring.
pests/disease – a caterpillar or locust plague will reduce photosynthesis
access to sunlight – competition within a forest can disadvantage or advantage some trees.
moisture/rainfall – a key variable. Trees do not prosper in a droughteven if there’s a heat wave.
snow packing in spring around the base of the trees retards growth temperature – finally!
The tree ring is a composite of all these variables, not merely of temperature. Therefore on the 15% of the planet covered by trees, their rings do not and cannot accurately record temperature in isolation from the other environmental variables.
In my article on Greening Earth Society on the Hockey Stick, I point to other evidence which contradicts Mann’s theory. The Idso’s have produced more of that evidence, and a new article on Greening Earth has `unearthed’ even more.
Mann’s theory simply does not stack up. But that was not the key issue. Anyone can put up a dud theory from time to time. What is at issue is the uncritical zeal with which the industry siezed on the theory before its scientific value had been properly tested. In one go, they tossed aside dozens of studies which confirmed the existence of the MWE and LIA as global events, and all on the basis of tree rings – a proxy which has all the deficiencies I have stated above.
The worst thing I can say about any paper such as his is that it is `bad science’. Legal restraint prevents me going further. But in his case, only those restraints prevent me going *much* further.
Cheers
John Daly

John L. Daly
`Still Waiting For Greenhouse’

Jason
November 23, 2011 7:38 am

24 hours on and having trawled through a lot of the emails, I’m a little unerwhelmed.
Sorry but I am.
There is no new “wow” in the real sense rather than Judy Curry sense. It’s more of the same, but without a harryread me, or hide the decline. There is little theme building and no real paths from last time to any bigger scandal .
It seems basically to be randomly selected emails, a lot of which are completely mundane.
Does FOIA think its enough to derail Durban, or cause an outcry, or a reanalysis, or even stir a bit of general public scepticism? If he/she does then I suspect they are mistaken.
The only revelation really of any note is that there are 220000 emails locked away that nobody can open. Are they explosive? If they are, then there is little to suggest in the current batch that the paths in those emails leads anywhere explosive.
So I’m not really sure what the point of releasing it now was if I’m honest. Either this is all he/she has, in which case although its bad science, there’s not enough rope to hang them with, or the locked zip contains dynamite, the worst scandals yet. It has to, otherwise this is all utterly pointless

Jean Parisot
November 23, 2011 7:43 am

4272 — Wahl-Ammann back channel communications, they really don’t like MM/CA.
In complete confidence (please share with no one), I will now mention that they formally
petitioned NCAR and its parent organization UCAR to have them force
Caspar and me to alter the Wahl-Ammann paper in fall 2005, based on a
series of charges related in spirit to those you mention below .

Jean Parisot
November 23, 2011 7:53 am

Jason – two clear themes pop out to me: 1) control the message, 2) within the team, the science was not settled – but the cause (and the result) was.

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 23, 2011 7:53 am

Of some note regarding those of us who have a gene code of horse trading, things like,”if I’m honest” is a “tell” regarding not doing a deal with such a person.

Sean Peake
November 23, 2011 7:58 am

Looks like A Physicist has gone off to unloosen his bow tie. Or do you wear a clip-on John?

Latitude
November 23, 2011 8:04 am

Ric Werme says:
November 23, 2011 at 7:38 am
==========================================
from: “Michael E. Mann”
subject: Re: WMO Climate Statement for 1999 – IMPORTANT !
cc: k.briffa, t.osborn
Hi Phil,
I’m attaching the plot you may remember that we (actually, the UK Met Office staff) prepared for the final version of the IPCC chapter 2 draft (in pdf format). To refresh your memory, we used the ’61-90 base period for the absolute anomaly scale, but we aligned the series based on an earlier (’31-60) interval of the instrumental record, which pre-dates (largely) the recent decline in the Briffa et al series. I think this leads to a similar picture, but if you think there are any significant discrepancies w/ what Tim is preparing, we should discuss.
cheers,
mike
==========================================
The effect of an increase in CO2 would be to increase growth, which mimics warmer temperatures. Mikey’s graph should have been adjusted downwards, not upwards.
http://www.real-science.com/mikey-hiding-decline

Magnus
November 23, 2011 8:05 am

“E-mail leakage” and “methane seepage” are two serious factors leading to AGW. I bet Gavin would go so far as to say that “E-mail leakage” puts the “C” in CAGW. Therefore we need political action to stop further leakage now by sequestering leaked e-mails. In any event the government should take action and ban leakage NOW and store what is in the “pipelines” on leakage-secure servers in the pentagon.
There. Forward to ALL concerned citizens.
I have a very elementary physics question since I am a pretty stupid, so any of you physics ppl out there feel free to explain:
I have read that the basic sensitivity of climate (the power of the GHG-effects) is logarithmic expressed as about 1 degree celsius for a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. Does this mean that models stating a possible 6 degree increase by 2100 expect feedbacks to make the concentration (let’s assume a starting point of 350ppm) 350×2=700 (1C), 700×2=1400 (2C), 1400×2=2800 (3C), 2800×2=5600 (4C), 5600×2=11200(5C), 11200×2=22400 (6C).
Are they expecting a tipping point around 400ppm to send us into a possible concentration of 22400 ppm by 2100?
Sorry for this very basic question, but I need it sorted out.

Jean Parisot
November 23, 2011 8:07 am

4285 lots of politics and internal spite wrt Baliunas/Soon, I’m still trying to get check out of the “artillary” on the “other side” – I wish they would have posted an address where I could send an invoice.:
to supposedly support the non-sequitor conclusion that the “MWP was warmer than the 20th century” is irresponsible, deceptive, dishonest, and a violation of the very essence of the scientific approach in my view.
One or two people can’t fight that alone, certainly not with the “artillary” (funding and
political organization) that has been lined up on the other side. In my view, it is the
responsibility of our entire community to fight this intentional disinformation campaign,
which represents an affront to everything we do and believe in.

P.F.
November 23, 2011 8:07 am

A physicist says: November 23, 2011 at 7:34 am . . . Recommended.
Prof. Bickmore’s “brand of thoughtful conservatism” is deeply flawed, corroded with logical fallacies and a thin understanding of the depth of the history of climate alarmism. He focused on elements that have serious questions of credulity and completely ignored evidence that cuts global warming alarmism down at its knees. He has done a disservice to understanding the truth.
I’d enjoy an opportunity to take him on, point for point, but I suspect he is of the sort that backs away when he realizes history and solid data demolishes his arguments.

Mike Lewis
November 23, 2011 8:11 am

I just submitted the following at RealClimate. Hopefully I won’t be moderated into the ether. Just in case, I brought my thoughts here. The “believers” are out in full force, waving their hands and claiming intellectual superiority over the “deniers”. This really has become a PR battle, hasn’t it?

The problem with these emails is that they convey a sense of subterfuge coupled with some very insensitive remarks aimed at their peers. Regardless of the science, it gives the group the appearance of being unprofessional which lends credence to the claims that the science may have been done in an unprofessional manner as well. Proving or disproving the AGW hypothesis should not be a PR contest; it should be an open discussion as we all stand to lose much if it is true and the worst case scenarios are possible. Why “hide” anything? Share the data among the peer groups. Truth will out.

Jean Parisot
November 23, 2011 8:12 am

4286, should we laugh or cry?
With regard to refs – remember that our goal is to cut the number of
references significantly.
and —
Also, please not that in the US, the US Congress is questioning
whether it is ethical for IPCC authors to be using the IPCC to
champion their own work/opinions. Obviously, this is wrong and scary,
but if our goal is to get policy makers (liberal and conservative
alike) to take our chapter seriously, it will only hurt our effort if
we cite too many of our own papers (perception is often reality).
PLEASE do not cite anything that is not absolutely needed, and please
do not cite your papers unless they are absolutely needed. Common
sense, but it isn’t happening. Please be more critical with your
citations so we save needed space, and also so we don’t get perceived
as self serving or worse.

Jean Parisot
November 23, 2011 8:12 am

Gotta go, that was fun

Ray
November 23, 2011 8:19 am

This new release might be the proof that it is a whistle blower and not a hack job. Either that or officials lied about the size of the data that was taken back then.

TheGoodLocust
November 23, 2011 8:22 am

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=231
“This will move the post-40s cooling to a little
later – more in line with higher sulphate aerosol loading in the late 50s and 1960s70s.”
-Phil Jones
I like how the guys at CRU thoughtfully consider how the temperature record should be adjusted.
Climate science in action.

Steve Keohane
November 23, 2011 8:23 am

A physicist says: November 23, 2011 at 7:34 am
Prof. Bickmore’s[..]

Um, he calls himself an associate professor, as of 2010:
“Sincerely,
Barry Bickmore
Associate Professor of Geological Sciences
Brigham Young University”

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700016608/BYU-professor-Barry-Bickmores-letter-to-Utah-legislators.html
Without directly saying, he seems to infer that CO2 is not necessary for plant growth, or CO2 can’t be excessively used as phosphates and nitrates resulting in pollution, in the aforementioned link.

Ron
November 23, 2011 8:39 am

Now what?

A physicist
November 23, 2011 8:40 am

A physicist says: Prof. Barry Bickmore’s much-viewed lecture (on YouTube) titled “How to Avoid the Truth About Climate Change” summarizes clearly the logical arguments that you and many other posters are WUWT are (rightly) seeking.

P.F. says: Prof. Bickmore’s “brand of thoughtful conservatism” is deeply flawed, corroded with logical fallacies and a thin understanding of the depth of the history of climate alarmism. He focused on elements that have serious questions of credulity and completely ignored evidence that cuts global warming alarmism down at its knees. He has done a disservice to understanding the truth.
I’d enjoy an opportunity to take him on, point for point, but I suspect he is of the sort that backs away when he realizes history and solid data demolishes his arguments.

It seems to me that Prof. Bickmore’s analysis is rational, respectful, and fact-driven … a model for conservative scientific analysis at its best. In particular, throughout his lecture Prof. Bickmore scrupulously refrains from cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting.
Watch Prof. Bickmore’s lecture, and judge for yourself whether this assessment is correct.
Here on WUWT, far too many posts/comments relating to climate change compare poorly with Prof. Bickmore solid conservatism. The time is long overdue for thoughtful conservatism to reject cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting, because if these practices are the future of American conservatism, then American conservatism has no future.

November 23, 2011 8:40 am

From Phil:
“…Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden. I’ve
discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data…”
Seems to me that FOIA should be sent to the DoE – sure would love to see what bureaucrat signed off on that conversation.

TheGoodLocust
November 23, 2011 8:52 am

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=5703
“If we had got a larger sulphate cooling in our model, then to be consistent with the observations, the detection procedure would have to scale down the sulphate response ( in
which case the estimate of the GHG response is unchanged and there is an
implication that the non-ghg forcing or response is over-estimated) , or
scale up the greenhouse gas contribution, in which case the larger sulphate
forcing is balanced by a larger greenhouse gas warming as we imply in the
chapter. Either way, we still detect a substantial GHG contribution. ”
An argument from ignorance. No matter what the guesstimated effects of sulphates it will either have no effect on the model’s calculations for CO2’s forcing or they will increase the effect of CO2 in their models.

GW
November 23, 2011 9:01 am

If I were President of the US, I would request airtime for a Presidential Address, but I would not give the media a clue as to the nature/subject of the address.
I would then announce that in the wake of the Climategate 2.0 release which revealed the outright collusion of scientists and false, perhaps criminal behavior on their part, that the person(s) behind the release via “FOIA.org” would receive, in abscentia, the United States Presidential Medal of Freedom for services to the nation, and indeed the world, in the pursuit of truth.
I would then announce that the United States would immediately cease all funding to the UN IPCC, and freeze all existing grants/funding for AGW research to all institutions worldwide and cancel any pending awards.
I would then announce that I had directed the US Justice Department to add 1000 agents/investigators to fully investigate the conduct and research of all US scientists for potential criminal indictments.
Finally, I would announce that all funding within executive jurisdiction to or for green energy projects would be cancelled henceforth.
While the above is simply a feelgood wish for me, I sincerely hope that the republican presidential candidates will be made acutely aware of Climategate 2.0 and add these revelations into their campaign platforms and future debates.
God Bless FOIA.org
GW

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 23, 2011 9:03 am

A (gazed/glazed) Physicist,
Judge ye not harshly lest ye be judged likewise.

TheGoodLocust
November 23, 2011 9:04 am

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=6840
“In doing this we are showing that even the most extreme mitigation does not remove the threat
of global warming. Furthermore, it also highlights the problem in delaying
the next round of mitigation negotiations. My question is do we want to
proceed with this amended figure?”
So the “threat of global warming” can’t be removed …..but do we really want to show that?

Denise
November 23, 2011 9:13 am

The real sad thing is how WUWT got sucked into the BEST project, despite numerous warnings. I’m certain all their data was also manipulated to show warming . For example, ask them (BEST) to supply you ALL the unadjusted raw data. Not a chance! Muller Is from the same crowd as the team and WUWT should have seen this from word go. The video he put up was a real sucker (Skeptic, my foot) and preparation for the temp data project planned by his daughter to follow…Sad…

Gail Combs
November 23, 2011 9:19 am

petermue says:
November 22, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Michael Mann
“I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his thus far unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.Perhaps the same needs to be done w/ this Keenan guy.
I believe that the only way to stop these people is by exposing them and discrediting them….”

Obviously this is how modern “real climate science” works….
/sarc
_____________________________________
That tidbit shows that it never was about science. With science you produce evidence that puts the other scientist’s work into question.
In Climate Scientology you attack and discredit the PERSON so your “Useful Innocents” will not look at the work showing you are full of B.S.
The fact that McIntyre and Keenan must be subjected to a smear campaign instead of rebutted with scientific evidence indicate there is no rebuttal possible.
“If the law is against you, argue the facts; if the facts are against you, argue the law; If both the facts and the law are against you, pound the table and yell like hell.”
Neither the facts or the laws are in the favor of the Climate Scientologists so when it comes to the FOIA’s we are seeing a lot of pounding on the table and yelling and squirming. Mann’s being provided with FREE lawyers tells you there is a lot of money hanging on the CAGW scam or he would have been hung out to dry by now. Whether Mann is tossed under the bus or not will tell us if the money men are determined to continue pushing the Carbon Trade Bubble down the throat of the world economy. I do not know if western economies can withstand another bubble, but that is part of the game, to collapse our civilization. “Would we not shatter it to bits, and then Remould it nearer to the heart’s desire!” This is written on the Fabian Society stained-glass window installed in the London School of Economics in a ceremony attended by Fabian Tony Blair in April of 2006. Bill Clinton has been one of their speakers and George Soros a graduate.
The great American Bubble Machine: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-20100405
How Goldman Sachs Created the 2008 Food Crisis: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/27/how_goldman_sachs_created_the_food_crisis?page=0,1
The Coming Carbon Bubble: http://www.iatp.org/blog/2009/07/the-coming-carbon-bubble

November 23, 2011 9:31 am

Denise says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/#comment-806126
Henry@Denise
In the case of the Gibraltar (UK) data I’m pretty much convinced they were altered by someone
(look at the differences in the results around Gibraltar: Tanger, Malaga and Granada)
I have said again and again here that you cannot just look at the average increase of temps.
You have to also look at the increase in maxima and minima
Note the correlation with the leaf area index, that I have picked up on…
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming

Blade
November 23, 2011 9:35 am

elmer [November 22, 2011 at 11:11 am] says: :: “What do you guys think? [Link]”

That’s great work. I love you folks at M4GW.

More Soylent Green! [November 22, 2011 at 11:28 am] says: :: [to A physicist @ November 22, 2011 at 10:38 am] “You’re obvious new to this trolling thing, aren’t you? … Consensus does not determine science, nor does appeal to authority. I find the progressive mind, like that of children, to be very susceptible to peer-pressure. That’s why progressives have such uniformity of opinion and so little original thought. Conformity is very important to progressives and they inhabit a shame sub-culture.”

Yep. It is positively Freudian. Parental issues are behind it. They long for a mommy and/or daddy, hence the overwhelming need for a nanny state. If things were left to the progressives, nothing in your life would be safe. They are about control. Forget abut ‘government in your bedroom’ as they sometimes complain about, with them it is the bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, EVERYWHERE! They are spoiled children, the types that were never scolded. Good job trying to discipline this child here, but alas it probably will do no good.

sandw15 [November 22, 2011 at 5:43 pm] says: :: “This offer is specially prepared for A Physicist (or occupant troll) You are just the kind of forward-looking person I’m looking for. What you need is an investment strategy for the future. This is your opportunity to be among the first to get a ground-floor stake in the investment opportunity of the century. I’m talking about Sandw15’s South Texas Sea Resort Communities.”

Excellent response to this AGW cultist. You would think that in our enlightened technological era, that the age of the scam or hoax might be over. Nope. In reality, the abundance of male enhancement pills and free energy and fuel additives and instant cures and Nigeria investments exist primarily because of the self-broadcasting of their own stupidity of these victims-in-waiting all over the world, with these AGW zombies leading the charge. There is one born every nanosecond.

Jimmy Haigh [November 22, 2011 at 11:49 pm] says: :: [to Danielle Westerbank @ November 22, 2011 at 10:56 pm] “Danielle. You remind me of the story of Louis Armstrong, when he was asked what jazz was, replied: “Lady? If you gotta ask, you just ain’t got it”.”

ROTFLMAO! That’s gonna leave a mark. But will she even realize it?

Michael [November 23, 2011 at 1:54 am] says: :: “This thread will definitely go over 1,000 comments.”

Not only that. I predict a new hockey stick in the near future. This one will again be found on Alexa graphs when WUWT is plotted alongside RealClimate. The blade will be WUWT, the handle will be RC, and Gavin will whine about someone Hiding the Incline.

David L [November 23, 2011 at 7:10 am] says: :: [to You Guys are unreal on November 22, 2011 at 3:39 pm] “Your last sentence is completely wrong. Look up the scientific process. It is NOT the burden to disprove the theory…. It is the burden to PROVE it. The theory is stated, data is supplied (and picked apart)…. If the theory can survive then it is advanced. And there’s no statute of limitations on this either. The law of gravitational attraction was proposed in the 17th century and effectively challenged by Einstein in the 20th century.”

Perfectly stated sir, absolutely perfect. That *is* Science pure and simple. The destruction caused to Science by the AGW cult is simply unimaginable. If that troll has any sense whatsoever he will listen up and learn something, because as it stands now, he knows nothing at all and in fact has it exactly ass-backwards.

A physicist [November 23, 2011 at 7:34 am] says: :: “Prof. Bickmore’s much-viewed lecture (on YouTube) titled “How to Avoid the Truth About Climate Change” summarizes clearly the logical arguments that you and many other posters are WUWT are (rightly) seeking. Prof. Bickmore’s lecture’s includes video clips of Newt Gingrich arguing too that AGW is real, serious, human-caused, and accelerating.”

That makes you both crackpots. I don’t need Newt Gingrich to tell me the planet has warmed since the LIA, *and* since the 1970’s, *and* since the Holocene began. You are the worst kind of cherry picker on the planet. You are lucky enough to live in an age where the confluence of not one, but all THREE of those warming events are occurring simultaneously. And you have the nerve to measure the small difference between the temps now and when it was naturally colder. Then you run around madly screaming: ‘We caused this by using fossil fuels to keep warm and for transportation! We must stop!’. You’re all sick. In reality you lot are the same as earlier eras that ran wild when a comet appeared in the sky, or more recently when pacific cultures tossed virgins into volcanoes. Of course neither of these earlier peoples had science or the Internet for a reference. So what is your excuse?

John from CA
November 23, 2011 9:36 am

Steve McIntyre has made “a time-conco­rdance of the new emails and placed it online”: http://www.climat­eaudit.org­/correspon­dence/clim­ategate2/i­nfo.cg2.cs­v
He feels, “The present dossier looks like a much more complete version” of the original email set.
source: http://cli­mateaudit.­org/2011/1­1/22/new-c­limategate­-emails/#c­omments

Michael Jennings
November 23, 2011 9:46 am

I have to agree with “a physicist” here. There is a lot of slogan-chanting, cherry- picking and witch-hunting going on but most of it comes from people like him/her at other sites. I am still waiting for his answer to Dave Wendt’s last question which, if they are truly a physicist, should not be too hard.

November 23, 2011 9:53 am

from: Michael Mann
subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
to: Kevin Trenberth
Michael Mann wrote:
extremely disappointing to see something like this appear on BBC. its particularly odd,
since climate is usually Richard Black’s beat at BBC (and he does a great job).
From what I can tell, this guy was formerly a weather person at the Met Office.
We may do something about this on RealClimate, but meanwhile it might be appropriate for the Met Office to have a say about this, I might ask Richard Black what’s up here?

A physicist
November 23, 2011 9:56 am

A physicist says: “Prof. Bickmore’s much-viewed lecture (on YouTube) titled “How to Avoid the Truth About Climate Change” summarizes clearly the logical arguments that you and many other posters are WUWT are (rightly) seeking. Prof. Bickmore’s lecture’s includes video clips of Newt Gingrich arguing too that AGW is real, serious, human-caused, and accelerating.”

Blade responds: “That makes you both crackpots. I don’t need Newt Gingrich to tell me the planet has warmed since the LIA, *and* since the 1970′s, *and* since the Holocene began. You are the worst kind of cherry picker on the planet. You are lucky enough to live in an age where the confluence of not one, but all THREE of those warming events are occurring simultaneously. And you have the nerve to measure the small difference between the temps now and when it was naturally colder. Then you run around madly screaming: ‘We caused this by using fossil fuels to keep warm and for transportation! We must stop!’. You’re all sick. In reality you lot are the same as earlier eras that ran wild when a comet appeared in the sky, or more recently when pacific cultures tossed virgins into volcanoes. Of course neither of these earlier peoples had science or the Internet for a reference. So what is your excuse?”

With respect, Blade, it seems to me — and to most CEOs, military strategists, mathematicians, scientists, and engineers — that Prof. Bickmore’s brand of thoughtful science-respecting conservatism is superior to the less rational brand of conservatism that your post represents.
It seems likely to me, Blade, that in the near future more-and-more climate-change skeptics like you will be changing their minds. There will always be some skeptics, even among business and military leaders, but it is true too that both their reputations and numbers are steadily diminishing.
Another well-conceived lecture, that reaches similar conclusions to Prof. Bickmore’s, is US Admiral David Titley’s YouTube video US Navy Chief Oceanographer: I Was Formerly a Climate Skeptic.
Recommended.

November 23, 2011 10:03 am

The New York Times refers to these as “stolen” e-mails in the headline.
Did the Times ever call Wikileaks, “stolen?”

P.F.
November 23, 2011 10:12 am

A physicist says: November 23, 2011 at 8:40 am “It seems to me that Prof. Bickmore’s analysis is rational, respectful, and fact-driven.”
Without going into a long treatise about Prof. Brickmore’s lecture’s short comings, I will point out just a few of the problems.
Brickman used Oreskes’s 2004 paper in Science to demonstrate the “consensus.” Oreskes was rebuked on several levels. For one, she neglected to cover any geophysical papers that presented data that made the AGW statements based on modeling incorrect on their face. In particular, the many papers regarding the MWP refuted on evidence MBH98’s model of 1,000 year global temps. None of them were mentioned as going against the consensus.These numerous peer-reviewed papers do not expressly try to refute the “consensus” by stating they go against the consensus and so, did not appear in her search for papers. But the works that show explicitly the sea level was higher and the atmosphere warmer during the MWP strongly refute the “consensus” that bought into MBH98 (the “Hockey Stick”).
Further, the six-scenario modeling used by the IPCC and Hansen in his testimony to Congress in 1988 had its roots in the mid 1980s. We’re now more than 30 years on — plenty of time to see if those models are proving at all correct. They are not. So poorly have the models performed that their results show no statistical relevance to what really transpired. For example, Hansen predicted that, under the “do nothing” premise, the global average temperature should rise more than 1.2°C over that period. The average global temperature rise from Hansen’s base line is only about 0.2°C and declining.
Brickman himself resorted to cherry-picking when he went after Monckton’s recent decadal comparison of observed temperatures with the IPCC projections. If he had considered the IPCC’s century-based sea level projections and compared them to the PGR-adjusted tide-gage studies (Gornitz & Lebedef for example), he would have noticed that there was no agreement at all between the two projections — the IPCC’s best case scenario showed a higher sea level rise than the highest estimate of sea level rise parsed from the observed data. When the subsequent directly observed sea level rise played out over the past couple of decades, reality did not conform with the IPCC projections. The requisite accelerating rise of over 4mm/yr necessary to achieve the IPCC “target” by the end of this century, ended up more like less than 2mm/yr and decelerating. In deed, the sea level fell 6mm in 2010 and is expected to fall even farther this year when all data is in.
Brinkman’s lecture is clever, rational, and somewhat respectful, but missed (avoided?) the heart of the entire matter — what has really happened with the global climate(s).

November 23, 2011 10:19 am

For those unfamiliar with all the players and issues, I suggest a review of my (shameless plug) “ClimateGate: 30 Years in the Making” graphic timeline (hosted on JoNova’s site), which covered the first batch of ClimateGate e-mails, to get some background and context. And for those familiar with the players and issues, you’ll find it helps understand what else was happening at the same time as a given e-mail to give it more context.
http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming/climategate-30-year-timeline/

A physicist
November 23, 2011 10:22 am

Dave Wendt asks: “What in your understanding is the residence time of a photon of infrared energy emitted from the earth which is absorbed by a molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere?”

Michael Jennings says: “I have to agree with “a physicist” here. There is a lot of slogan-chanting, cherry- picking and witch-hunting going on but most of it comes from people like him/her at other sites. I am still waiting for his answer to Dave Wendt’s last question.”

It’s pleasant to see such a thirst for knowledge here on WUWT. A certain humility is helpful, since as Chen, Laane, Wheeler, and Zhang accurately assert in their article (available free on-line) in the November Notices of the American Mathematical Society titled “Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective”

“At a most fundamental level, the understanding of the greenhouse effect requires atomic and molecular physics and chemistry, as well as the associated mathematics: partial differential equations, group theory, and large-scale scientific computing. In fact, in order to fully understand the relevant properties of H2O, CO2, CH4, and others, one needs at least a whole year’s worth of graduate courses in physical chemistry. This will far exceed the scope of this article. Regardless of however small the amount of information we may be able to convey here is, we hope that we can arouse some interest in physical chemistry in the mathematics community.”

In a similar vein, a concrete place to start in grasping why Dave Wendt’s one-sentence question leads planetary climatologists to write book-length answers is the American Institute of Physics (AIP) web site “The Discovery of Global Warming” in particular Spencer Weart’s (lengthy) survey page titled “Basic Radiation Calculations” (a Google search will find it).
Spencer Weart’s survey is highly recommended … if you’re extraordinarily keen on math, physics, and the history of science! 🙂

Theo Goodwin
November 23, 2011 10:25 am

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 9:56 am
Son, we are happy to debate you. If you have an argument to make, make it in your own words. Do not refer us elsewhere and expect a reply.

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 23, 2011 10:28 am

This troll is making this thread too long, too boring.
later when its gone,,,

David Falkner
November 23, 2011 10:29 am

Interesting. Edited for readability:
We are now using the average of 4 AR4 scenarios you gave us for GHG + aerosol. What is the situation likely to be for AR5 forcing, particularly anthropogenic aerosols. Are there any new estimates yet? Pareticularly, will there be a revision in time for the 2010 forecast? We do in the meantime have an explanation for the interannual variability of the last decade.
However this fits well only when an underlying net GHG+aerosol warming of 0.15C per decade is fitted in the statistical models. In a sense the methods we use would automatically fit to a reduced net warming rate so Mike McCracken can be told that. In other words the method creates it own transient climate sensitivity for recent warming. But the forcing rate underlying the method nevertheless perhaps sits a bit uncomfortably with the absolute forcing figures we are using from AR4.
However having said this, interestingly, the statistics and DePreSys are in remarkable harmony about the temperature of 2009.

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=5794

Stephen Wilde
November 23, 2011 10:30 am

“At a most fundamental level, the understanding of the greenhouse effect requires atomic and molecular physics and chemistry, as well as the associated mathematics: partial differential equations, group theory, and large-scale scientific computing. In fact, in order to fully understand the relevant properties of H2O, CO2, CH4, and others, one needs at least a whole year’s worth of graduate courses in physical chemistry. This will far exceed the scope of this article. Regardless of however small the amount of information we may be able to convey here is, we hope that we can arouse some interest in physical chemistry in the mathematics community.”
Yeah, right. As in “certain molecules slow down the transfer of energy to space a bit more than others”.
Talk about obfuscation.

November 23, 2011 10:33 am

As expected, the only MSM coverage of this on the front page UEA’s outrage and denial.
http://news.yahoo.com/university-slams-apparent-climate-email-leak-172056597.html

Gail Combs
November 23, 2011 10:36 am

Jeffrey Davis says:
November 22, 2011 at 6:21 pm
Gail Collins sez, “Beliefs” and “Causes” belong to religion and politics they have absolutely no place in science because it leads to “Confirmation Bias”
Well, no.
Scientists are scientists only when they do science. The rest of the time, they have ordinary lives to lead…….
__________________________
I know about “Confirmation Bias” because I have caught “Scientists” in the act and had the owners of the firm fire their rumps. I have also been fired because I would not falsify lab data at the directive of other firms. I have had several knock down drag out fights because of the issue of “Confirmation Bias” during my forty year career as a chemist. From my experience “Confirmation Bias” is probably one of the biggest problems in science and the scientists not effected by it are a lot few than those who are.
Why the heck do you think new information must be replicated at three independent labs is a rule of thumb?
For example if I come up with a new drug it will be handed to a second scientist within the company to be validated BEFORE the company will spend the money for sending it to an outside testing firm.
The Fleischmann–Pons cold fusion controversy was all about independent lab validation. This is how science is SUPPOSED to be done!

Leon Brozyna
November 23, 2011 10:45 am

We’ve heard so much from everyone about this latest offering of e-mails, but have yet to hear from the Union of Concerned Scientists’ spokesdog, Mr. Kenji Watts. I wonder what his take on all this might be.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 10:56 am

From the on-line Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective: “At a most fundamental level, the understanding of the greenhouse effect requires atomic and molecular physics and chemistry, as well as the associated mathematics: partial differential equations, group theory, and large-scale scientific computing. In fact, in order to fully understand the relevant properties of H2O, CO2, CH4, and others, one needs at least a whole year’s worth of graduate courses in physical chemistry. This will far exceed the scope of this article. Regardless of however small the amount of information we may be able to convey here is, we hope that we can arouse some interest in physical chemistry in the mathematics community.”

Stephen Wilde says: Yeah, right. As in “certain molecules slow down the transfer of energy to space a bit more than others”.

Stephen, your post correctly summarized in one sentence the fundamental reason why global warming is real, serious, human-caused, and accelerating.
For many CEOs, military strategists, mathematicians, scientists, and engineers, Stephen’s one-sentence summary is sufficient; the above-named on-line lectures by Prof. Barry Bickmore and by Admiral David Titley work through the scientific and military implications very clearly.
Other folks may prefer to delve more deeply into the fundamental math and physics of climate change, and to help these ambitious learners abundant scientific resources are available on-line and free-as-in-freedom.
A third option is to embrace the peculiarly popular brand of skepticism that is grounded mainly in slogan-chanting, cherry-picking and witch-hunting. This brand of skepticism has the advantages of being easy and fun, but in the long run it has little or no enduring value.

Denise
November 23, 2011 10:58 am

AW have you seesn this
http://brohan.org/philip/job/crutem3/docs/
can you do anything with it?

Gail Combs
November 23, 2011 11:00 am

davidmhoffer says:
November 22, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Trenberth is an awful poet. I figure even I can do better:
We, the kings, of climate are
Raising the price, of running your car…..
________________________
ROTFLMAO I hope Anthony puts this in a prominent place. Or maybe elmer (November 22, 2011 at 9:47 am) can do it as another video.
(Give them permission Hint, Hint)

Robert Clemenzi
November 23, 2011 11:05 am

This is weird, when the archive is searched for the word “moon” (no quotes), it crashes.

David Falkner
November 23, 2011 11:08 am

Oh, this is good. Skeptics are funded by Big Oil, but who is running everything by Shell so they don’t “rock the boat”?
…The report back etc will be to Shell International in London and not Shell
Solar in Holland or South Africa. This is a critical point as there are
numerous sensitivities here. To over-simplify somewhat – Shell
International are interested in generic conclusions regarding the
viability of CDM (and we should have some very useful information for
them). Shell Solar do not want anyone ‘interfering’ with their set-up in
South Africa (so we have to be a little circumspect in regard to the
specifics of that situation). That’s in strictest confidence!
Regards
Mick

Mike Hulme later writes:
Mick,
Thanks for clarifying. We have no intentions of ‘rocking the boat’.

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=752

Stephen Wilde
November 23, 2011 11:08 am

A physicist said:
“Stephen, your post correctly summarized in one sentence the fundamental reason why global warming is real, serious, human-caused, and accelerating”
You should read my stuff because there is more:
The water cycle gets bigger and/or faster to speed up the transfer of energy to space thus offsetting the GHG effect.
All you get is an infinitesimal shift in the surface air pressure distribution. Merely a tiny fraction of the similar shifting from oceanic and solar causes.
Keep it simple.

P.F.
November 23, 2011 11:11 am

A physicist says: November 23, 2011 at 10:56 am “Stephen, your post correctly summarized in one sentence the fundamental reason why global warming is real, serious, human-caused, and accelerating.”
I believe the “accelerating” part has been disproved. Do you have evidence to the contrary? I’m a sea level guy mostly and whether it be decadal or century long, there is no signal of present acceleration. Indeed, all evidence says the rate of change has diminished such that the recent decadal rate is less than the mean rate going back more than 100 years. (That means deceleration.)
You, dear physicist, are resorting to slogan-chanting. I invite you to demonstrate that the present rate of sea level rise (or surface temperatures) is accelerating and is within the projections put forth by the IPCC and its ilk. In the absence of such effort, you are, simply, a slogan chanter.

Chris B
November 23, 2011 11:12 am

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 10:56 am
From the on-line Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective: “At a most fundamental level, the understanding of the greenhouse effect requires atomic and molecular physics and chemistry, as well as the associated mathematics: partial differential equations, group theory, and large-scale scientific computing. In fact, in order to fully understand the relevant properties of H2O, CO2, CH4, and others, one needs at least a whole year’s worth of graduate courses in physical chemistry.
__________________________________
And just how many Angel’s do you think can dance on the head of a pin, and why?

David Falkner
November 23, 2011 11:17 am

Robert Clemenzi says:
November 23, 2011 at 11:05 am
I have had some issues also. When I try to go to the second page of the 30 results for ‘Mick Kelly’, it is blank.
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=4&search=mick+kelly&sisea_offset=10
It isn’t a URL problem.

Birdieshooter
November 23, 2011 11:19 am

Climategate-the gift that keeps on giving

David L
November 23, 2011 11:29 am

#1737
About our friend Steve McIntyre (who sent a request to Phil to retract a statement in a paper)….See 1737 for the full thread. Mann’s advice to Phil how to respond to Steve:
To: Phil Jones
From: “Michael E. Mann”
Subject: Re: Fw: Rutherford et al. [2004]
Phil,
I would immediately delete anything you receive from this fraud.
You’ve probably seen now the paper by Wahl and Ammann which independently exposes
McIntyre and McKitrick for what it is–pure crap. Of course, we’ve already done this on
“RealClimate”, but Wahl and Ammann is peer-reviewed and independent of us. I’ve attached
it in case you haven’t seen (please don’t pass it along to others yet). It should be in
press shortly. Meanwhile, I would NOT RESPOND to this guy. As you know, only bad things
can come of that. The last thing this guy cares about is honest debate–he is funded by
the same people as Singer, Michaels, etc…
Other than this distraction, I hope you’re enjoying the holidays too…
talk to you soon,
mike

A physicist
November 23, 2011 11:33 am

P.F. says: I invite you to demonstrate that the present rate of sea level rise (or surface temperatures) is accelerating and is within the projections put forth by the IPCC and its ilk. In the absence of such effort, you are, simply, a slogan-chanter.

P.F., that’s easy. Decadal variations in Arctic sea-ice coverage are relatively small compared to predicted AGW effects, and in this relatively low-noise data-set we see the acceleration of AGW plainly, at a rate well above IPCC’s highest predictions.
Needless to say, this marked acceleration of AGW has not escaped the attention of the world’s shipping companies and military strategists; and this a major reason why prominent CEOs and military leaders are turning away from AGW skepticism. For one plain, simple, non-ideological reason: AGW skepticism doesn’t work.

motsatt
November 23, 2011 11:35 am

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 10:56 am
Other folks may prefer to delve more deeply into the fundamental math and physics of climate change, and to help these ambitious learners abundant scientific resources are available on-line and free-as-in-freedom.
Really? You really haven’t paid any attention to what is being said on data ‘ free-as-in-freedom’. FOI means freedom of information act for your further reading on the issue. Good reading.

November 23, 2011 11:53 am

a physicist says:
“…global warming is real, serious, human-caused, and accelerating.”
Two out of three wrong = FAIL.
Of course global warming is real. The planet is still emerging from the LIA. Temperatures have been much higher [and much lower] prior to the industrial revolution, when CO2 was very low. So you got that one right, but for the wrong reason.
There is ZERO testable, empirical evidence that warming is human caused. That is simply a conjecture. It may be true that added CO2 causes some minor, beneficial warming. But real world, falsifiable evidence is non-existent.
And global temperatures are not accelerating.
You don’t know much about this subject, and what you ‘know’ is wrong.

Joe
November 23, 2011 11:53 am

Police: Stop right there!
Killer: What?! What did I do?
Police: You killed that man!
Killer: No I didn’t!
Police: We caught you red handed. You’re standing over the body with a smoking gun.
Killer: So?!
Police: And a check from the dead man’s wife, made out to you, with “for killing my husband” in the memo section.
Killer: … well you’re just cherry picking!

R.S.Brown
November 23, 2011 11:55 am

Please note that neither Climategate 2.0 or the password protected 7zip file
will contain e-mails that were circulated exclusively among Team
members here in the United States and Canada.
The trioika of Mann, Bradley and Hansen may not have shared many of their
e-mails with their cousins at UEA/CRU.
If true, then the exclusively American side of the “CAUSE” will be found in
those e-mails currently sequestered by the court in the University of
Virginia FOIA case concerning the e-mails emanating from Mike Mann back
then.
Mann’s proclivity for snarky or downright insulting comments about
anyone who disagrees with him in the slightest may be why he wants
those particular e-mails to be considered his very personal and very private
property.
He could never afford to be seen offending his fellow travelers and defenders.

November 23, 2011 12:00 pm

foia2011.org id=5102 Susan Solomon calling for emails to be written to New Scientist, in rebuttal to a suggestion that there was political influence in the drafting of SPM.

Regarding Paris: If you wish to refer to the fact that you as a
group feel that the changes that occurred in Paris were essentially
editorial issues of language or presentation style, that you were
indeed surprised by how minor the changes were (as many of you have
said to me) this would be good to have in a document if you feel so.
‘Presentation style’ is good language, I think, since even the
famous change regarding ‘likely five times’ and solar in the RF
headline was a non-change, really, since we fully retained all the
information in the figure and in the main text – so in essence even
that was a matter of presentation in the end, which is a key reason
why I didn’t push harder to keep it. I don’t suggest you get into
details but this is FYI.
Regarding earlier drafts: It could also be useful to state that at
no point during any step in the drafting and revision process was
there any inappropriate input by ‘government agents’ to the framing
of the document that was the starting point for Paris (rather that it
was prepared jointly by the authors in order to present the report
clearly in the collective judgement of those authors). I had to
write a short description of how the SPM was prepared in response to
a question after our congressional hearing (and I add that Kevin,
Jerry, and Richard Alley all saw this and agreed with it). A
little more detail than I put in here could be useful for this. The
fact that collectively the authors made choices based entirely upon
their own expert judgements about clarity, conciseness, and accuracy,
bearing in mind the need for brevity in the document could be
helpful. I am not trying to put words in your mouth but rather make
a suggestion about the type of thing to say – in fact it will be
better if you rewrite this so it is your own words. Such a broad
letter could have great utility: we could all use it whenever
appropriate, rather than just for New Scientist. We might consider
putting it on the WG1 web site too.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 12:06 pm

motsatt says: Really? You really haven’t paid any attention to what is being said on data ‘ free-as-in-freedom’. FOI means freedom of information act for your further reading on the issue. Good reading.

Motsatt, to mathematicians, scientists, and engineers the phrase “free-as-in-freedom” means even more than that: it means a sustained commitment that scientific publications, data, and software should none of them be hidden behind paywalls.
Two patron saints of the “free-as-in-freedom” movement are Richard Stallman and Al Gore. For some reason, neither name is commonly applauded by conservatives … both names should be.
At the end of the day, broader acceptance of the conservative principle “free-as-in-freedom” means swifter acknowledgement of the sobering realities of climate change. Both outcomes are good for conservatism and liberalism alike.

Jeff C
November 23, 2011 12:06 pm

Folks, don’t waste your time engaging “A physicist”. He isn’t a physicist but rather college professor John Sidles of the University of Washington.
http://faculty.washington.edu/sidles/FRIAS_2011/
Google his favorite phrase, “slogan-chanting, cherry-picking and witch-hunting” and you’ll find him using it among his own community with his real name. Charlie Martin at PJ Media outed him months ago, he’s a troll of the worst sort.
I’m reasonably sure he’s also the infamous TCO, banned from Climate Audit, WUWT, Lucia’s, Air Vent, and numerous right-wing political blogs including PJ Media, Just One Moment, and Patterico. He was “scientist” at Climate Audit last year and I’m sure has countless other aliases.
Did I miss any TCO? I thought you were an HVAC engineer?
http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/01/lights-0-air-conditioners-22/#comment-96953

Theo Goodwin
November 23, 2011 12:15 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 10:56 am
We now have incontrovertible evidence that “A Physicist” is a bot.

David L
November 23, 2011 12:18 pm

Phil Jones saying that he stopped World Service from doing anything on a press release prior to COP…”control the message”!!!!
excerpt below…see #2245 for full text
from: Phil Jones
subject: RE: something on new online.
to: “Alex Kirby”
Alex,
Of course, I’ll still talk. I was just looking at your items as the COP-10
is coming up very soon – could have started.
I managed to stop the World Service doing anything on this lot (see below).
Julian could see it was just pre-COP propaganda, and all the issues are
being dealt with, some better than others.
The report is not worth getting involved with as it is all the same sort
of rubbish that these groups peddle at this time.
Cheers
Phil
From: Julian Siddle [[1]REDACTEDREDACTED]
Sent: 07 December 2004 11:01
To: REDACTED
Subject: Climate change
Dear Cathy Young,
Hi I was just speaking to Emma in your press office who suggested I send you
an email. I am a radio producer with the BBC World Service responsible for
science news coverage.
I have received a press release, copied below, from a group which
fundementally opposes the conventional views of climate change. Please could
you show this to your colleagues in the climate research unit, I would be
interested in their views on the assertions put forward in the release.
Unfortunately I do not have the full report at present.
Please could they comment on the assertions which follow the paragraph
‘There are key issues that must be better understood if policy is to more
closely match current knowledge levels. Examples of issues that are not
adequately understood in the climate debate include:’
I am hoping to produce a news report about this later today for broadcast
after midnight. Please do give me a call with any questions.
Many thanks
Julian
Julian Siddle
BBC Science Radio
Bush House
London
WC2B 4PH

Magnus
November 23, 2011 12:18 pm

I have a very elementary physics question since I am a pretty stupid, so any of you physics ppl out there feel free to explain:
I have read that the basic sensitivity of climate (the power of the GHG-effects) is logarithmic expressed as about 1 degree celsius for a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. Does this mean that models stating a possible 6 degree increase by 2100 expect feedbacks to make the concentration (let’s assume a starting point of 350ppm) 350×2=700 (1C), 700×2=1400 (2C), 1400×2=2800 (3C), 2800×2=5600 (4C), 5600×2=11200(5C), 11200×2=22400 (6C).
Are they expecting a tipping point around 400ppm to send us into a possible concentration of 22400 ppm by 2100?
Sorry for this very basic question, but I need it sorted out.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 12:24 pm

Smokey asserts: “And global temperatures are not accelerating.”

Smokey, looking for evidence of AGW in high-variability data-sets is futile: skeptic and true-believer alike shamelessly cherry-pick their data, hunt their witches, and chant their slogans … as we are seeing very plainly here on WUWT.
On the other hand: (1) oceans act as thermal reservoirs that average short-term variations, (2) shallow oceans respond more rapidly than deep oceans, and (3) high-latitudes are most sensitive to greenhouse gas effects.
For these three reasons, climate scientists expect to see evidence for AGW most plainly and most quickly in the arctic. And what every space-faring nation on earth sees plainly is accelerating climate change in the arctic … at a pace substantially more rapid than the IPCC’s most pessimistic predictions.
That’s a major, sobering, common-sense reason why the world’s prominent CEOs and military leaders are turning away from AGW skepticism.

Steve Garcia
November 23, 2011 12:27 pm

Cram says:
November 22, 2011 at 10:19 pm
“When is someone going to put these emails into a searchable format online? I can’t wait to run a few keywords!”
Ron –
I’ve been successful just using Window’s XP’s search. I narrow it down to the Mail or Documents folder, and then enter the term in the “a word or phrase in the file” field. It’s been finding things every time.
If you have Windows 7 which has a search UI I freaking HATE, I can’t help you.

Editor
November 23, 2011 12:34 pm

A physicist says:
John, you’ve done a fair job of thread-hijacking, but this thread is about the revelations in the latest group of e-mails. You are an award-winning researcher, so tell me, are the events documented here also common practice in your lab? Do you hide data and methods, obfuscate results, attempt to recruit investigative journalists to discredit your critics? Do you downplay negative results to present a nice tidy picture? If you became aware of such practices in your field, would you just shrug your shoulders and say that the underlying science is sound?
Frankly, despite your credentials and accomplishments you are just another political troll contributing nothing but sound and fury.

Ammonite
November 23, 2011 12:44 pm

Magnus says: November 23, 2011 at 12:18 pm
I have read that the basic sensitivity of climate (the power of the GHG-effects) is logarithmic expressed as about 1 degree celsius for a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere… Are they expecting a tipping point around 400ppm to send us into a possible concentration of 22400 ppm by 2100?
No, CO2 concentration does not double in the way you describe. The theory is that the initial 1C temperature rise sets of a chain of positive feedbacks that act to increase temperature further. Examples might include rising water vapour (itself a potent GHG), lowering surface reflectivity as ice melts etc. The median result from scores of studies is +3C per doubling. See Knutti & Hegerl 2008 http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/knuttir/papers/knutti08natgeo.pdf. (A result of +6C seems extremely unlikely.)

TheGoodLocust
November 23, 2011 12:49 pm

“Magnus says:
November 23, 2011 at 12:18 pm
Are they expecting a tipping point around 400ppm to send us into a possible concentration of 22400 ppm by 2100?”
No, they understand it is logarithmic so in order to get the models to show such scenarios they have invented a set of hypothetical positive feedbacks. They say the warmth from the CO2 will:
1) Increase water vapor (down 10% in the last decade of real world measurements)
2) release methane from permafrost and other sources (methane has leveled off in real world measurements)
3) Melt the Greenland ice sheet, Antarctica and generally reduce albedo
In short, such models are little more than fan fiction for the climate community that exaggerate warming effects while minimizing or ignoring cooling effects.

RACookPE1978
Editor
November 23, 2011 12:50 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 11:33 am
(replying to)
P.F. says: I invite you to demonstrate that the present rate of sea level rise (or surface temperatures) is accelerating and is within the projections put forth by the IPCC and its ilk. In the absence of such effort, you are, simply, a slogan-chanter.
P.F., that’s easy. Decadal variations in Arctic sea-ice coverage are relatively small compared to predicted AGW effects, and in this relatively low-noise data-set we see the acceleration of AGW plainly, at a rate well above IPCC’s highest predictions.
Needless to say, this marked acceleration of AGW has not escaped the attention of the world’s shipping companies and military strategists; and this a major reason why prominent CEOs and military leaders are turning away from AGW skepticism. For one plain, simple, non-ideological reason: AGW skepticism doesn’t work.

Dead wrong. CAGW has nothing but a religious-led dogma behind it. “The Cause” as it is referred to in these released emails: The desire to “free” mankind from all (efficient and economical) energy use. The desire (unstated) to kill billions in order to “save the planet” from that virus known as humans.
The politicians feed on that dogma, that fear that they can inspire in their enviro-led leftist community who support them. From that fear, that feeding frenzied feedback of politics and the easily-deluded leftist/social-justice voters comes MONEY and POWER. The politician use both to control money and new projects. The universities? Even more dogmatic, more tied emotionally to the CAGW dogma. Even less tied to moral reason and moral codes.
You – wrongly – claim CEO’s and engineers believe in CAGW. They don’t. But their company’s current income (this year, the past years since 2007 when Pelosi began control of the federal budget now can ONLY come from fed-funded “green energy” projects. So they apply for them – the lucky ones, the ones who bundled millions of dollars for Pelosi and Obama, get the first loans and the first grants. The “insiders” who controlled the market since Al Gore began with Enron carbon tax and carbon trading schemes in the late 1990’s, make their billions already.
The rest? The honest ones? The engineers, the CEO’s, the writers, the REAL military analysts who didn’t “buy their retirement” by toeing the party line, and who didn’t payoff the democrats? Were screwed. Were fired. Lost their companies, their lived
Academics? You, the others who claim skeptical scientists change their results for money from “big oil” … So, that means you absolutely believe “money can change scientific results”.
If so, how many “scientists” did money, power, influence, and a righteous dogmatic religious fervor in “The Cause” change and influence results did 89 billion in federal money buy?
How many “pal-reviewed” articles were approved due to CAGW group think, and how many were rejected by unknown, never-accountable judges who follow the CAGW mantra? You stand condemned by your own words.

Latitude
November 23, 2011 12:55 pm

And what every space-faring nation on earth sees plainly is accelerating climate change in the arctic … at a pace substantially more rapid than the IPCC’s most pessimistic predictions.
====================================
If your point is that they’ve been wrong about everything…….then you’re right

Jose Suro
November 23, 2011 12:56 pm

FOX News has a new piece in SciTech titled: “Did £10 Stand in the Way of Climate Science?
Article here: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/11/23/did-10-stand-in-way-climate-science/
Best,
J.

TheGoodLocust
November 23, 2011 12:57 pm

A Physicist:
“And what every space-faring nation on earth sees plainly is accelerating climate change in the arctic ”
Doesn’t sound very “global” now does it? Oh wait, we can only say that about the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age despite widespread proxy evidence that indicates otherwise.
It is awfully convenient that we only see this “accelerating climate change” in the arctic where we don’t have long records of any sort and where infillling makes things look warm – as they admit in their emails (to get things back on topic):
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=270
“The infilling is partly the reason they got 2005 so warm, by extrapolating across the Arctic from t the coastal stations.”
Warmest year EVER! Bwahaaha!

David L
November 23, 2011 1:01 pm

Mike Hulme sympathizes with Will Hutton:
“In particular his conclusion that the debate around climate change is fundamentally about
power and politics rather than the environment seems undeniable. There are not that many
“facts” about (the meaning of) climate change which science can unequivocally reveal.”
#2037
shackley_Simon,REDACTED
date: Mon Dec 8 14:10:21 2003
from: Mike Hulme
subject: Re: Will Hutton’s A-level essay
to: “Richard Starkey”
Richard,
The McIntyre and McKitrick paper (MM03) has got a hidden agenda behind it. Check out this
web site for some commentary on it. As with the contentious Soon and Baliunas paper, MM03
has been published by Energy & Environment and is part of Sonja Christriansen-Boehmer’s
on-going campaign.
[1]http://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/Mann/EEReply.html
So while not endorsing this attempt at undermining our basis for current exceptional global
warming, I must say I find myself in sympathy with much of what Will Hutton writes. In
particular his conclusion that the debate around climate change is fundamentally about
power and politics rather than the environment seems undeniable. There are not that many
“facts” about (the meaning of) climate change which science can unequivocally reveal.
I am copying this to Asher Minns, since Asher has been giving the issue of “sound science”
and Tyndall’s reaction to it some thought recently.
Mike

harrywr2
November 23, 2011 1:02 pm

@A Physicist
For these three reasons, climate scientists expect to see evidence for AGW most plainly and most quickly in the arctic.
Temperature change in Alaska – notice the step change around 1975.
http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/TempChange.html
Please explain to me how a 5F step change in a couple of years is caused by ‘gradual warming’ due to Co2 emissions. I think it’s called the ‘PDO’.

November 23, 2011 1:02 pm

How about this? A parody of ” A Hard Rain’s Gonna Fall” by Bob Dylan
“For The Cause of Global Warming”
Oh, where have you been my balding son?
And where have you been my bearded one?
I’ve stumbled on glaciers on twelve misty mountains
I’ve walked and I’ve crawled to both polar ice caps
I’ve taken tree ring samples from seven sad forests
I’ve been out in front of a dozen dead oceans
I’ve been to ten thousand weather stations that are all next to pavement
It’s for the cause, for the cause, for the cause, for the cause
It’s for the cause of global warming
Oh, what did you see my balding son?
And what did you see my bearded one?
I saw a newborn baby exhaling carbon dioxide
I saw a mass transit system with nobody on it
I saw a big glacier that seemed to be drippin
I saw 3 things floating that might have been polar bears
I saw a tall building all covered with water
I saw ten thousand tree rings that were flat as a pancake
I saw one tree ring sample that went up on the right
It’s for the cause, for the cause, for the cause, for the cause
It’s for the cause of global warming
And what did you do my balding son?
And what did you do now my bearded one?
I took the tree data that was flat as a pancake
I merged in the one tree but multiplied it by a hundred
I added the compromised land station temperature
I formed it and bent it till it looked like a hockey stick
I used it to get a lot more grant money
I showed it to a man who used it in a movie
It’s for the cause, for the cause, for the cause, for the cause
It’s for the cause of global warming
Oh, who did you meet my balding son?
Who did you meet my bearded one?
I met a young child beside a dead eagle
I met a white man who drove an SUV
I met a young woman shoveling her driveway
I met a young man, he was wearing a rainbow
I met an old man who looked really scary
I met a bunch of old men all wearing dark robes 
It’s for the cause, for the cause, for the cause, for the cause
It’s for the cause of global warming
And what’ll you do next my balding son?
And what’ll you do next my bearded one?
I’ll tell all the people the oceans are rising
We’ll tax them untill their pockets are all empty
We’ll scatter the landscape with a million wind turbines
Where the spinning blades will kill all of the raptors
Where the home in the valley is a damp dirty prison
Where the executioner’s face is always well hidden
Where hunger is ugly, where souls are forgotten
Where black is the color, where none is the number
And I’ll tell and think it and speak it and breathe it
And reflect it from the mountain so all souls can see it
Then I’ll stand on the ocean until I start sinkin’
But I’ll know my songs well before I start singin’
It’s for the cause, for the cause, for the cause, for the cause
It’s for the cause of global warming

Lance of BC
November 23, 2011 1:03 pm

Someone has said it already, “a physicist slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, or witch-hunting”
Is John Sidles
http://en.gravatar.com/sidles
Found this out last night but the internet went down and couldn’t post it, he is not a physicist.

RACookPE1978
Editor
November 23, 2011 1:03 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 12:24 pm
(Responding to)
Smokey asserts: “And global temperatures are not accelerating.”

Smokey, looking for evidence of AGW in high-variability data-sets is futile: skeptic and true-believer alike shamelessly cherry-pick their data, hunt their witches, and chant their slogans … as we are seeing very plainly here on WUWT.
On the other hand: (1) oceans act as thermal reservoirs that average short-term variations, (2) shallow oceans respond more rapidly than deep oceans, and (3) high-latitudes are most sensitive to greenhouse gas effects.
For these three reasons, climate scientists expect to see evidence for AGW most plainly and most quickly in the arctic. And what every space-faring nation on earth sees plainly is accelerating climate change in the arctic … at a pace substantially more rapid than the IPCC’s most pessimistic predictions.

False. Dead wrong.
Arctic Sea ice is declining slightly, but Antarctic sea ice is increasing. Explain that inconvenient fact.
The ONLY temperatures showing the Arctic temp’s have increased are NASA-GISS extrapolated 1200 km smoothed areas around limited single thermometers on land areas extrapolated out over the sea. And Russian stations that Russians claim are wrongly presented! (But does Hansen have any reason to present false conclusions? At 1.5 person millions is payoff a year????)
DMI Latitude 80 north summer temperatures have declined since 1959. They are declining even more since the last 12 years. What increase in temperatures are they (not) measuring? Nothing ‘melts” at -25 degrees in the winter.

Julia Townsend-Rose
November 23, 2011 1:05 pm

It would be good if they had a proper inquiry into these peoples activities, only this time appoint an unbiased chairman! Now there’s a revolutionary idea!!

sophocles
November 23, 2011 1:10 pm

ROFL … ah, what a great crowd—the comments are more entertaining than the dancing emails! 🙂 … pass the popcorn … pass the soda … pass the icecreams …

A physicist
November 23, 2011 1:11 pm

Robert, you raise plenty of good points. In medicine, about one-in-ten physicians is mentally ill and/or substance-impaired and/or unethically profit-centric — yet medicine progresses. In mathematics, science and engineering, roughly half of all articles (in my opinion, and to use Pauli’s famous phrase) are “not even wrong” — yet mathematics, science, and engineering all progress.
The point is that progress in medicine, mathematics, science, and engineering is driven entirely by the best practitioners … not the worst.
The same general principles apply both to the climate science and to skepticism of that science: (1) it is a grave mistake to focus exclusively on the weakest climate science (which to my mind is that climate science which is unimaginatively data-centric), and (2) it is equally a grave mistake to criticize climate-change science by the weakest expressions of skepticism (which to my mind are cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-chanting).
The plain fact is, a planet inhabited by seven-going-on-ten billion people cannot afford either kind of weakness, and our children’s generation is depending utterly upon our generation not to make either kind of mistake.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 1:17 pm

3556.txt is rather interesting. Here we have Briffa apparently “setting up” someone to arrange for a reviewer for someone who apparently wouldn’t want him as a reviewer. In other words, looks like Briffa is stacking the deck here for an unfavorable review:

> please accept – the answer is that it is likely someone who might
> prefer you not to do it
> Keith
>

The paper in question is “Manuscript ID HOL-09-0054 entitled “A 622-year regional temperature
history of southeast Tibet derived from tree rings” has been submitted to The Holocene.”

Gail Combs
November 23, 2011 1:24 pm

HenryP says:
November 23, 2011 at 9:31 am
…….You have to also look at the increase in maxima and minima
Note the correlation with the leaf area index, that I have picked up on…
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
___________________________
Henry, you really should cross post this stuff. That is what Willis Eschenbach has done and he ended up with a peer reviewed paper by the end of it. I hate seeing your work buried in the bottom of the comment section. Several people Like Bob Tissdale, George E. Smith (ChiefIO) Roy Spencer, and others cross post here to see that ideas get a wide exposure and a proper vetting.
The Thermostat Hypothesis: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/14/the-thermostat-hypothesis/
Tropical Tropospheric Amplification – an invitation to review this new paper: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/30/tropical-tropospheric-amplification-an-invitation-to-review-this-new-paper/
This is an extension of the ideas I laid out as the Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis on WUWT…. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/28/sense-and-sensitivity/
Willis publishes his thermostat hypothesis paper: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/24/willis-publishes-his-thermostat-hypothesis-paper/
Further Evidence for my Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/07/further-evidence-for-my-thunderstorm-thermostat-hypothesis/

November 23, 2011 1:25 pm

I have just completed a 6 month contract engineering job. I developed a Quality Assurance plan, wrote the manual, revised about 40 detailed operational procedures…fought with the “Certification Agency” to demonstrate that we met their 40 page certification guideline.
I created and recieved over 4,000 Emails in that 6 months time.
I archived and indexed the 4,000 Emails, leaving them under a folder for the QA department, for ANYONE to review.
NOTHING in my PROFESSIONAL/Courteous Emails would be found that I would NOT PUBLISH TO THE WORLD! I NEVER put any emotion into my “professional work”. I never put anything that cannot be transparently justified as “fact”. I’m not afraid of discussion and “point by point” rebuttal or responses. I’m not afraid to say, “I think you will find according to section 14.0 of the Guide, paragraph 4, this sentence (I quote.) and would ask if this document and our section (?) do not meet this criteria.
The CHILDISH, petulent, silly, politically (translate, EMOTIONALLY) driven nature of these communications drive me NUTS!
These are written by people with NO FEAR OF GOD or MAN. This is a tragedy of first order. These people have no “higher authority” to respond to. Thus they behave as their own “Demigods”. We must strive to cut off their FUNDING, to allow them to “die on or off the vine” as it would be.
I have no sympathies for them. Also, at least in the “medical field” when people are found to engage in deliberate FRAUD they are: 1. Censured. 2. Loose academic positions, 3. Banned from further research or publication for periods of time. 4. Occassionally stripped of their Medical License. IT is to bad this cannot be done to the “climate scientists”. I would recommend that PHD granting Universities consider revoking PHDs for some of the more aggregious offenders!
Max

Rob Crawford
November 23, 2011 1:27 pm

“(from her/his handle, claiming to be ‘A physicist’, but using only non-Physics arguments)”
The fellow calling himself “a physicist” used to frequent the PJMedia “Tatler” comments until he apparently got tired of having it pointed out that he never actually makes a scientific argument in favor of CAGW. His “arguments” are invariably logical fallacies and propaganda techniques: appeals to authority, appeals to the bandwagon, etc.
Kudos to the people here for recognizing his… quality… so quickly!
(BTW — weep that he apparently actually holds a PhD and a university position.)

John-X
November 23, 2011 1:28 pm

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2011/11/foia2011-on-shameful-paper.html
Trenberth:
“I am just back from travel and I have not seen any of the new batch of emails yet. Whatever is there is highly selective.”
Ha ha. Have not seen it, but it’s ‘highly selective.’ Sounds a little like, “I haven’t read Donna’s book, but it’s terrible.”
Being on The Team means you don’t need to see any evidence. And if you do see it, it supports your position completely…
…or is Big Oil-funded denier quackery right-wing anti-science confusing the public.

Jeremy
November 23, 2011 1:29 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 12:24 pm
For these three reasons, climate scientists expect to see evidence for AGW most plainly and most quickly in the arctic.

That’s strange, since they previously said they expected to see a “hot spot” over the high-altitude tropics based on their model results. That “hot spot”, btw, has completely failed to materialize. So exactly what kind of new modeling behavior now demonstrates that whatever Arctic changes have been definitively observed is enough to declare the old models wrong?
This is basic goalpost movement behavior. “Oh that model doesn’t work, quickly create a new explanation for what we expect to see to confirm CAGW and make sure it agrees with what we see.”

A physicist
November 23, 2011 1:33 pm

A physicist reminds folks: Smokey, looking for evidence of AGW in high-variability data-sets is futile: skeptic and true-believer alike shamelessly cherry-pick their data, hunt their witches, and chant their slogans … as we are seeing very plainly here on WUWT.
On the other hand: (1) oceans act as thermal reservoirs that average short-term variations, (2) shallow oceans respond more rapidly than deep oceans, and (3) high-latitudes are most sensitive to greenhouse gas effects.
For these three reasons, climate scientists expect to see evidence for AGW most plainly and most quickly in the arctic. And what every space-faring nation on earth sees plainly is accelerating climate change in the arctic … at a pace substantially more rapid than the IPCC’s most pessimistic predictions.

RACookPE1978 claims: False. Dead wrong. Arctic Sea ice is declining slightly, but Antarctic sea ice is increasing. Explain that inconvenient fact.

RACookPE1978, the short answer is that the Arctic is a shallow ocean that is surrounded by land, while the Antarctic is a deep ocean that surrounds an island — two very different climatological set-ups. A longer answer is given on-line by the folks at SkepticalScience.
The longer answer is that science and skepticism equally serve humanity best when the most rational forms of skepticism are directed against the strongest scientific evidence.
What’s happening here on WUWT is that the least rational kinds of skepticism (namely, cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-chanting) are being directed against the weakest kinds of climate science (namely, theory-free curve-fitting to noisy observational data sets).
What that combination creates is a doubly-toxic public dialog that ill-serves our children’s generation.

David Falkner
November 23, 2011 1:40 pm

@ physicist:
Counting by billions, 8 is after 7. Your welcome.

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 23, 2011 1:41 pm

A Physicist,
As you are so sure of the case of human caused global warming, a date boundary should be easy for your math skills to pass on to us of less knowledge.
Year 2030, 2070, 2100, some mark by you with your name on it for history to review in time.

Stephen Wilde
November 23, 2011 1:45 pm

“science and skepticism equally serve humanity best when the most rational forms of skepticism are directed against the strongest scientific evidence. ”
Of course. But I couldn’t find any strong scientific evidence in favour of AGW.
The strongest there is being the simple observations of Arrhenius but that tells us nothing of the system response to that which he observed. Everything since is just speculation unsupported by empirical data.
Nothing yet observed is outside the normal range of natural variability.
We owe it to our children to stop bad science. We also owe it to the energy poor around the world now and in the future.

Humphrey
November 23, 2011 1:50 pm

Update 17: This is truly shocking. This is so clear cut that I would expect that Trenberth will have to resign or be fired somehow. This is because he is in the USA. Jones will stay on he is in Europa.

strawbale
November 23, 2011 1:51 pm

from one of the emails, peer review and a science journal editor that apparently isnt AGW biased enough and cannot be tolerated…
“>>This second case gets to the crux of the matter. I suspect that
>>>deFreitas deliberately chose other referees who are members of the
>>>skeptics camp. I also suspect that he has done this on other occasions.
>>>How to deal with this is unclear, since there are a number of
>>>individuals with bona fide scientific credentials who could be used by
>>>an unscrupulous editor to ensure that ‘anti-greenhouse’ science can get
>>>through the peer review process (Legates, Balling, Lindzen, Baliunas,
>>>Soon, and so on).
>>>
>>>The peer review process is being abused, but proving this would be
>>>difficult.”

A physicist
November 23, 2011 2:03 pm

Stephen Wilde says: Nothing yet observed is outside the normal range of natural variability.

Stephen, I’m sure you didn’t mean to say that! Gee, the levels of greenhouse gases that we’ve already injected are hugely outside the normal range of natural variability.

DRE
November 23, 2011 2:06 pm

RE: A Physicist
Feeding the Trolls in ill advised. This WAS an interesting thread.

IAmDigitap
November 23, 2011 2:11 pm

Like I said before: Michael Mann belongs in the State Pen. So does Trenberth and so do about 8 or 10 other government employees who have been seen again and again going around funding fraud laws.
As far as the clown who names himself a physicist, we’ll go ahead and let him give his overview of how a class of gases whose main component is a PHASE CHANGE REFRIGERANT at ATMOSPHERIC TEMPS is to be calculated to be a special-case warming function.
The idiocy spouted by people who even fear these criminals – going to GREAT lengths to avoid offending the CRIMINALS: is precisely the effect they have tried to impart.
Well it isn’t working because not ONE of the people in these emails is innocent of grasping that funding fraud WAS and IS going ON.
Just because YOU’RE afraid to say they should be put in jail for it doesn’t mean the rest of us are.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 2:12 pm

Jones being schooled on deleting stuff: 1897.txt

Richard M
November 23, 2011 2:12 pm

I’ve got to hope that “A Physicist” is a bot. If it’s a real person then their ignorance is most apparent. He tries to claim that math supports AGW while math is simply a tool and can’t support any particular conjecture. He then claims that diminished sea ice is evidence of increasing sea level. Completely hysterical. Next, he believes it takes a full year of graduate courses in chemistry to understand that GHGs are better absorbers of radiation. Wow, talk about complete nonsense.
At least if it’s a bot then this can be explained by poor programming. If not, then it’s simply a case of someone who thinks they know a whole lot more than they do (and that’s putting it nicely).

IAmDigitap
November 23, 2011 2:13 pm

The self proclaimed physicist from skepticalscience is again proving that if you’re religious enough, you’ll believe anything: including creationist science from a failed divinity student who was a failed political figure who became a failed scam artist.

Philemon
November 23, 2011 2:14 pm

[quote]Roger Knights says:
November 22, 2011 at 11:43 pm
And the response of the second Michael Mann, to the Guardian today (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/22/fresh-hacked-climate-science-emails) is textbook paranoia. He describes the person/people who released the latest batch of CRU emails as: “agents doing the dirty bidding of the fossil fuel industry …”
And they stole his strawberries too![/quote]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUp3vhMSfZE[/youtube]
Thank you, Roger!

Mariss
November 23, 2011 2:18 pm

Whether “the Arctic is a shallow ocean that is surrounded by land” or “the Antarctic is a deep ocean that surrounds an island” makes no difference. If climate were static then each would have an unchanging amount of ice. If decreasing Arctic sea ice is proof of a warming climate then using the same logic, increasing Antarctic sea ice is proof of a cooling climate.
I’m surprised “a physicist” would make such a logical reasoning error.

P.F.
November 23, 2011 2:23 pm

A physicist says: November 23, 2011 at 11:33 am
P.F. says: I invite you to demonstrate that the present rate of sea level rise (or surface temperatures) is accelerating and is within the projections put forth by the IPCC . . .
P.F., that’s easy. . . .
===
Really? I invite you to demonstrate accelerating sea levels and your “easy” response completely skirts the question and goes down a path of Arctic sea ice extent. Sea ice has little if anything to do with global sea level. Do you not know that?
I’m calling you out. Let’s take a reasonable period of time to avoid any notion of cherry picking. How about 1000 years since Mann seems to like that period? If that’s cherry picking for you, we can go back 2000 years. I’m also okay with going back 4000 years if you like. (Going back only to 1978 as you did with your sea ice extent graph is, well, cherry picking, as it begins with the bottom of the 20th century cool period of the mid 1970s.)
Here’s my position:
• Global conditions as measured by sea level are cooler now than the first 250 years of the period in question (1ky).
• The IPCC’s worst-case-scenario for sea level rise over the next 100 years would barely reach the mean of the past 1000 years and would fall well below the mean of the Holocene Interglacial going back 7000 years.
• The present Interglacial is roughly following the same behavior of the previous Interglacial (the Eemian). It is cooling from it’s climate optimum reached 3500 years ago and is clearly trending cooler now.
• Best empirical-based predictions indicate that ten years from now will be cooler than the 1990s.
• The present rate of sea level rise will take nearly 800 years to accomplish the IPCC “target” by the end of this century. To accomplish that feat would require significant acceleration in sea level rise. However, there is no acceleration signal that can be parsed from the decadal or century-long data.
You appear to believe that it is warmer now than at any period prior in the past 1000 years (as do Mann, Bradley, Hughes, Hansen, Markey, Gore, etc.) and it is accelerating. Do I read you correctly? Now prove your position. Address each of the five above points with clear and obvious evidence based on reliable data. Show your sources. I will reply with my support for those claims. If you do a better job explaining your position, I will raise concern about human-caused global warming. If my resources trump yours, I trust you will assume the ways of we skeptics.
Your turn . . .

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 2:28 pm

“agents doing the dirty bidding of the fossil fuel industry …”

Did he REALLY say that in those words? That would tell me right now that the man is NOT a scientist, he is an activist and he is now claiming that this is dirty tricks by “the other side”. This man has no place being anywhere near any kind of science. He has absolutely no objectivity and has gone completely tribal.

Dr. Everett V. Scott
November 23, 2011 2:32 pm

The non-physicist is trying to alarm people with imagined doom from overpopulation.
The entire population of the planet could fit into a sphere only one kilometer in diameter with room to spare, so worrying about overpopulation is like worrying about a monster under the bed.
Real problems like reducing pollution and sufficient food production are worth taking action on. Worrying about overpopulation or carbon dioxide is just wasted effort. They aren’t a problem.

Latitude
November 23, 2011 2:34 pm

the levels of greenhouse gases that we’ve already injected are hugely outside the normal range of natural variability.
=====================================
Of course it is, C3 grasses evolved and lowered CO2 levels, C4 grasses evolved after that to further lower CO2 levels…..the combination has cause CO2 levels to be limiting…
…which is way outside the normal range of natural variability
Recent “outside the normal range of natural variability” CO2 levels have been so low that it not only slowed plant growth….but if it had gone just a little lower…..some plants would have stopped growing and died

Editor
November 23, 2011 2:37 pm

A physicist says:
The point is that progress in medicine, mathematics, science, and engineering is driven entirely by the best practitioners … not the worst.

John, these e-mails concern Michael Mann, Keith Briffa, Kevin Trenberth, Phil Jones and still others who are all acclaimed as the best in their field. They are all lead authors to the IPCC reports, the Climate Bible, written by the 2500 best scientists in their field. We are talking about the best, John, so just what does that say about climate science? And what does it say about scientists like yourself who fail to condemn the corruption? A war on science? Look in the mirror: THAT is the face of the enemy.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 2:38 pm

Lot of the emails mention Kyoto. One I found interesting (between Mike Hulme and Jonathan Koehler) has some interesting language on the subject:

Mike,
My view of Terry’s concerns that he has expressed is that the funding so far does only provide for a pilot (disequilibrium) model. I am happy with this, because we are building a fundamentally new type of model, which will require considerable work before it functions properly, in particular the incorporation of non-linear technological change.
There are many issues, such as Foreign Direct Investment, arrangements for technology transfer through the Kyoto protocol, the extension of the model to include other geographical regions besides the current US, EU, China (and now UK) split, for which extra money would have to be found.
Jonathan

It would seem that in 2003 they are discussing the impact of “technology” transfer from the developed world to the developing world due to Kyoto.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 2:43 pm

P.F. says: I’m calling you out [regarding sea level]

PF, like a magician, ain’cha already cherry-picked by choosing sea-level as your measure?
`Cuz sea-level rise is dominated by thermal volume expansion … volume expansion is dominated by the ocean deeps … and the open deeps warm only on time-scales of centuries.

“Science and skepticism equally serve humanity best when the most rational forms of skepticism are directed against the strongest scientific evidence.”

So don’t we take a look at the world’s shallowest, most rapidly-responding ocean, namely the Arctic Sea? Do we see any trends in that ocean? 🙂
OK P.F. … I’ve linked to some reasonably solid science … so now’s your turn to respond with some good old-fashioned rational skepticism … the ball’s in your court! 🙂
But I hafta advise yah, pretty much every shipping company CEO and navy admiral in the world thinks these warming trends aren’t gonna stop, but rather are going to accelerate. And the admirals in particular, are in posession of far better ice data even than the climate scientists, obtained by six decades of America, British, and Russian missile submarines on-patrol under that ice! 🙂

J. Felton
November 23, 2011 2:52 pm

This is amazing. Arrived a little late to the game, I’m afraid, been dealing with a sick 4 year old for the past day or two. ( And grumpier then a box of hornets.)
Simply put, there is no excuse for the behavior and disohonesty exhibited in these emails. As many others have posted in better comments than mine, to claim they were all ” taken out of context ” is not only a feeble excuse, it shows the unwillingness of those involved to come clean and admit their mistakes. I know it’s far fetched to expect the perpetrators to be fired, ( much less step down themselves,) but I think this will generate a lot more exposure this time. As someone else put it, the MSM is already following it, where last time it was weeks before anyone noticed.
If ” The truth will set you free”, I expect Mann and the Team to remain in purgatory for a long, long time.

Humphrey
November 23, 2011 2:57 pm

Heres a physicist for you;;; posted just now at CA
Posted Nov 23, 2011 at 5:11 PM | Permalink | Reply
Bruce, the “fellow Prof in Physics at Oxford” would be me. I actually started my climate education at RealClimate, but I switched over here once it became clear that the science content was of higher quality. Ha caught

David Falkner
November 23, 2011 2:59 pm

From the Met Office, interannual variability in 2000s explained with a 1.5C/century trend:
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=4621

Mariss
November 23, 2011 3:03 pm

“Science and skepticism equally serve humanity best when the most rational forms of skepticism are directed against the strongest scientific evidence.”
I cannot make any sense of that quote. Is it a plea to stop examining weak and shoddy science like the AGW theory?

Philemon
November 23, 2011 3:07 pm

Rats! I was trying to post a link to the following video for those who didn’t get Roger Knights’ allusion.

Elmer, if someone at m4gw can do a passable Bogart impression, the clip could be dubbed with things like ‘Excel spreadsheets, that’s what I thought we sent him’, ‘Yamal data, it couldn’t have been upside down’, and ‘McIntyre! He’s part of the conspiracy of agents doing the dirty bidding of the fossil fuel industry’.
Of course, you’d also need to add the clicking balls sound effect, too.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 3:14 pm

A physicist says: The point is that progress in medicine, mathematics, science, and engineering is driven entirely by the best practitioners … not the worst.

Robert E. Phelan says: John, these e-mails concern Michael Mann, Keith Briffa, Kevin Trenberth, Phil Jones and still others who are all acclaimed as the best in their field. They are all lead authors to the IPCC reports, the Climate Bible, written by the 2500 best scientists in their field. We are talking about the best, John, so just what does that say about climate science? And what does it say about scientists like yourself who fail to condemn the corruption? A war on science? Look in the mirror: THAT is the face of the enemy.

LOL … Robert, please let me break it to you gently that the folks who chair scientific committees are commonly not the best scientists on those committees … for the common-sense reason that the top-rank scientists begrudge the immense amount of time that committee chairing requires.
As for “the face of the enemy” — uhhh … yah mean the enemy in “the conservative war on science”? — please let me say that looking in the mirror is a good idea for scientists and skeptic alike, for a very good reason given by the historian John Toland:

“There are no simple lessons in history … it is human nature that repeats itself, not history. We often learn more about the past from the present, in fact, than the reverse.”

What we are learning equally from today’s too-rudimentary climate change science, and from too-foolish skepticism of that science, is illuminating for everyone — all too clearly — the past historical lessons of Jared Diamond’s Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. The sobering implication is this: our global civilization too may collapse under the strains that the 21st century is bringing to bear upon it.

Matt
November 23, 2011 3:17 pm

Just a detail. Update 6. “Here’s an email that COLLABORATES a radio interview I did in —”
Should be “Corroborates”

Dave Wendt
November 23, 2011 3:24 pm

When I checked back in earlier today I contemplated continuing to engage in my dialogue with “A physicist”. but since his return comments to me and virtually everyone here have consisted mostly of nonresponsive, self- plagiarizing, cut and paste pastiches of his previous blathering, I had to conclude that, at least for me, LIFE IS TOO SHORT!

Federico
November 23, 2011 3:28 pm

AW from what i can read at RC comments (amazing that hes allowing them to be posted nearly all negative re (climategate 2) they are all pretty much running away fast!
http://www.realclimate.org/

Federico
November 23, 2011 3:33 pm

Like this one at RC new respect for Gavin at least he seems to have a sense of humor hahahaha
Mann:
“the important thing is to make sure they’re loosing the PR battle. That’s what
the site [Real Climate] is about.”
How’s that working out for you?
[Response: Pretty well actually. Having somewhere people can go that isn’t being filtered by politicians or journalists, and where scientists can interact directly with the public, does actually make a difference. You might not like it, but lots of people do. – gavin]”
Comment by jryan — 22 Nov 2011 @ 3:00 PM

DSW
November 23, 2011 3:44 pm

As an ex formal debater, the only word that describes a physicist’s first constructive response to P.F.”s post would have to come from the current vernacular – fail.
First, when you are confronted with a salient position in a debate, you respond by going point by point and state your beliefs and why they differ from your opponent. Usually, he will then rebut your stance with evidence and provide evidence (full disclosure of sources is obviously required) to shore up the damage caused to his case by your initial statements. He also then “pulls” any points he made that you did not address in your first response. Not mentioning a point is tantamount to agreeing with it, evidenced by the inability to assail it logically and factually. These points are reinforced by your bypassing them rather than tackling them head on. (In a timed debate, this usually occurs when there are too many points to address before out of time, not necessarily due to inability – this sometimes avoids getting to the truth, but since this isn’t timed, it doesn’t apply)
Next, you do the same – rebuttal, evidence, repair. These 2 statements are also usually the last time new stances/points are made to avoid an ever widening battlefield. There should the be some evidentiary rebuttals back and forth, and then the judges make a decision.
Basically, you barely touched on any of the points P.F. made. I would say that he stated his positions clearly and with enough detail to give you solid targets (ie, solid positions rather than mercurial ones) and yet, nothing substantial from you other than “the ball’s in your court”. Even though I agree with P.F.’s stance, I could assault it effectively with an hour or two with Google, cut/paste and Wordpad.
Debate is a crucible for thoughts and ideas, burning off the impurities and attempting to leave a mostly pure product. A mathematical mind plus your obvious faith in you stance can create a much better showing.
I would suggest another nom de plume.
PS – I bet P.F. would be willing to let you have another 1st Constructive that hopefully has more bite and less bark.

Robert of Ottawa
November 23, 2011 3:47 pm

Still no comment from Judith Curry.

Tony B (another one)
November 23, 2011 3:50 pm

LOL at “A Physicist”
No you’re not a “Physicist. You’re either:
1. A badly programmed robot, or
2. A stuck record, or
3. A chanting zombie
The common characteristic of each? A complete inability to think. Oh, in which case I should also add a number 4.
4. An AGW believer.
Physicist…what a joke.

Australiano di cuoro
November 23, 2011 3:56 pm

He was sent here to dumb down the event don’t bother answering him/her its so bloody obvious they are really worried that this is IT.

P.F.
November 23, 2011 4:03 pm

A physicist says: November 23, 2011 at 2:43 pm
PF, like a magician, ain’cha already cherry-picked by choosing sea-level as your measure?
===
Again, you present Arctic sea ice volume data that goes only back to 1978. I’ll remind you, 1978 marks the end of the 1960s-1970s cooling. Remember the 1975 Newsweek article about the “cooling world”? You are resorting to the most obvious and egregious cherry picking — that which is almost pervasive in the AGW argument — by picking a 20th century low point on which to begin your data set, thus causing a misleading impression of what’s really going on. You are astonishingly disingenuous by using that point, twice now.
The challenge is to show that now is warmer than 1000 years ago.
Would you rather use temperature proxies? How about entomology? Geology? Anthropology? Botany? How about Medieval literature? All consistently show that now is cooler than 1000 years ago. Do you really want to go on sea ice extent? I’ll go there if you have an argument that shows now Arctic sea ice is less than 1000 years ago than now. You must, however, get off your pegging the data to the late 1970s. If you can’t you’ve lost the argument. Frankly, by your avoiding the core question, you are revealing that you really don’t have a good argument, do you..

old construction worker
November 23, 2011 4:16 pm

“A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 6:38 am
Meanwhile, the rest of the planet is busy creating humanity’s future.”
Yes, of course. You and other like minded are “Creating Humanity’s Future”. Never mind the unknown and unintended consequences of “Creating Humanity’s Future” Right, Mr. Physicist. Our future may depend on more CO2 in the atmosphere. Who knows? Silly Me. CO2 drives the climate is not about Science is it? It’s about control. Control a energy, you control the Nations. Control food, control population. Right? And, of course “the means” always justifies the “end”. Right, Mr. Physicist. It’s people like you that cause wars and destruction. History has taught us that.

1DandyTroll
November 23, 2011 4:27 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 2:03 pm
“Stephen Wilde says: Nothing yet observed is outside the normal range of natural variability.
Stephen, I’m sure you didn’t mean to say that! Gee, the levels of greenhouse gases that we’ve already injected are hugely outside the normal range of natural variability.”
There’s no proof of that in that NASA page, actually NASA doesn’t supply any evidence but references NOAA and IPCC AR4, from which we can exclude IPCC AR4 since per their statement doesn’t do science but dabbles in scenarios. From NOAA we can exclude pretty much all the ice cores not located in Antarctica and Greenland due to the lack of CO2 at 1000’s of meters higher elevation and lack of hundreds of thousands of years coverage. Greenland also has elevation issues but has at least sites that covers a hundred thousand year and a few more.
So, essentially, the whole 650 000 years coverage of average CO2 levels is just a handful of sites in Antarctica (Vostok only covers some 400 000 for instance) and Greenland, which as most rational people do know, isn’t exactly representative to the rest of the globe, what with CO2 not being evenly dispersed in the atmosphere but tends to be concentrated at lower elevations over land where green shit grows and where the CO2 molecule tend to fly it, apparently, takes the trade winds first and for most.
To waste so much time on trying to defuse the crippled cause and here we are not yet at the ten thousand email mark. Will you have strength left at the 210 000 email mark, or even time left, I wonder. :p

A physicist
November 23, 2011 4:31 pm

DSW says: As an ex formal debater, the only word that describes a physicist’s first constructive response to P.F.”s post would have to come from the current vernacular – fail.

DSW, your evaluation isn’r all that surprising, for the simple reason that the practices of mathematics, science, engineering (and even medicine) do not resemble formal debating in the slightest.
For one thing, these disciplines begin not with a resolution specified ab initio by some external authority, but instead they begin with an internal creative impulse: “What is a good question to ask?” The point being, that creating good questions carries mathematicians, scientists, and engineers more than halfway to good answers.
That creative courage is what’s missing on this forum: the questions that WUTW is posing inspire solely the feeblest forms of skepticism: cherry-picking, witch-hunting, slogan-chanting.
It’s plain that WUWT should be asking questions that target stronger science and thus inspire rational skepticism. For example: what will Richard Muller’s Koch-funded BEST temperature records look like in 200 years? In 500 years? Are historians like Jared Diamond and John Toland correct in suggesting that we citizens of earth are perhaps either not smart enough to foresee this future, or else not brave enough to face it, or else not creative enough to forestall it?
Those are the kind of tough questions that WUWT’s brand of skepticism should be facing … and both science and skepticism would be better-off for it.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 4:32 pm

What I think people don’t appreciate is that at the maximum of the last glacial we got very close to the point where there wasn’t enough CO2 in the atmosphere for plants to survive. We are close to all time lows in atmospheric CO2 content when looked at over geological time.
If we DON’T put CO2 back into the atmosphere, we could be in severe trouble during the next glacial period which is due “any time now”.

u.k.(us)
November 23, 2011 4:36 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 2:43 pm
“But I hafta advise yah, pretty much every shipping company CEO and navy admiral in the world thinks these warming trends aren’t gonna stop, but rather are going to accelerate. And the admirals in particular, are in posession of far better ice data even than the climate scientists, obtained by six decades of America, British, and Russian missile submarines on-patrol under that ice! :)”
==============
Not quite.
It is, for every “shipping company CEO and navy admiral”, essential that possible sea routes be examined for efficiencies of transport. Nothing more.
You say they think: “these warming trends aren’t gonna stop, but rather are going to accelerate.”
I say, they will capitalize on any situation that presents itself.
Which apparently is still being hampered by the ice.
Scary stories notwithstanding.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 4:42 pm

The longest interglacial was close to 30,000 years and ended about 395,000 years ago. It was much warmer than the current interglacial. There was a 15,000 year conifer optimum during that interglacial (compared to a 2,000 year optimum in this interglacial). Rainfall reconstructions at a location in Siberia during that period point to rainfall amounts of about 100mm/year higher than the Holocene (current interglacial). It was warmer and wetter and the atmosphere had a higher CO2 content than the pre-industrial Holocene. Forests grew in areas that are today tundra.
People generally have a very narrow view of climate and expect that the times in which they live are “normal”. But the “normal” state over the past couple of million years as been glaciation with periods such as this only a brief breath of fresh air that happens for only 10% of the time. People, seriously, CO2 is your friend, not your enemy.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 4:46 pm

A physicist says: PF, like a magician, ain’cha already cherry-picked by choosing sea-level as your measure?

A physicist says: Again, you present Arctic sea ice volume data that goes only back to 1978.
As sea-faring folks know, Russian records extending back to 1525 show no evidence of an ice-free Northern Sea Route … a sea-route that this year has opened wide to multiple record-smashing SUEZMAX supertanker passages.
The radical arctic warming that has enabled these record-smashing ship passages is yet another reason why hard-nosed shipping CEOs and naval strategists around the world are abandoning climate-change skepticism.

David Ball
November 23, 2011 4:52 pm

Humanity’s future? I’m going to make a prediction. In 2100, environmentalists will be hindering the access to the virtually infinite mineral and energy wealth of the solar system. Progressives my a**, ……………

Editor
November 23, 2011 4:59 pm

A physicist says: November 23, 2011 at 3:14 pm
LOL … Robert, please let me break it to you gently…

Not bad, John; condescension, pedantry, a Soc101 grasp of organizational dynamics and an appeal to common sense all in one sentence, followed up by a quote from a historian that ascribes the sweep of historical events to “human nature”. So let’s see… the Climategate e-mailers are the ones defining the paradigm for climate science, have more publications in the field than anyone else, are called upon to testify before Congress and Parliament, give advice to governments, receive awards of recognition, are sought out by the media and those CEOs and Admirals you’ve been going on about… but they are not “the best”? It’s an interesting idea that there is an anonymous, self-less mass of much better scientists, toiling away in obscurity, but all unanimous in their support of the ideas and theories of their intellectual inferiors, who also have the power to make or break their careers. It is obvious you have no idea of Climategate was really about, and when people have lost faith in science and recognized how many scientists have sold themselves to the forces of oppression, you’ll fail to understand why the torch and pitchfork bearers have come for you.

BigWaveDave
November 23, 2011 5:27 pm

‘A physicist’ answers Dave Wendt’s “What in your understanding is the residence time of a photon of infrared energy emitted from the earth which is absorbed by a molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere?” question by saying that it is too complicated to understand for anyone who hasn’t studied the right subjects in the right way, and that apparently there are planetary climatologists who have found it necessary to write book length answer attempts. ‘A physicist’ then directs the reader to Spencer Weart, a historian who is stupid enough to state “Here’s what all scientists agreed they knew by 1988…”
No doubt Weart quit physics for good reason.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 5:28 pm

crosspatch says: People, seriously, CO2 is your friend, not your enemy.

LOL … people, seriously, CO2 is the friend of the sharks … whose fossil teeth blanket Florida … `cuz duh, Florida (South Carolina, Louisiana, coastal Texas, etc.) goes underwater whenever the icecaps melt! And becomes prime shark habitat.
Which is nice for sharks, yes. Nice for people, not so much.

TheGoodLocust
November 23, 2011 5:38 pm

“A physicist says: Again, you present Arctic sea ice volume data that goes only back to 1978.
As sea-faring folks know, Russian records extending back to 1525 show no evidence of an ice-free Northern Sea Route … a sea-route that this year has opened wide to multiple record-smashing SUEZMAX supertanker passages.”
Wow, you mean incomplete Russian records going back ALL the way until the beginning of the Little Ice Age show that? What do their records say from before the Little Ice Age?
Whoops, guess we don’t have that – let’s just declare a climate emergency.

JPeden
November 23, 2011 5:46 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 2:03 pm
Stephen Wilde says: “Nothing yet observed is outside the normal range of natural variability.”
Stephen, I’m sure you didn’t mean to say that! Gee, the levels of greenhouse gases that we’ve already injected are hugely outside the normal range of natural variability.

Ok, let’s assume that “the levels of greenhouse gases that we’ve already injected are hugely outside the normal range of natural variability,” which is actually more of a definition of the word “natural”, while CO2 levels themselves have indeed been much higher in the geological history of the Earth, injected or not.
But then as you yourself even seem to imply, nothing else in “climate” or “weather” is “outside the normal range of natural variability,” which is what Stephen Wilde was saying. Obviously, he was not saying that the CO2 “we’ve already injected” is not present, but instead the opposite insofar as CO2 concentrations are still increasing, and implying that Climate Science’s hypotheses, as embodied by its CO2 = CAGW, have not yielded even one correct relevant empirical prediction yet, and that there also is in fact nothing new in climate and weather “outside the normal range of natural variability” that even needs an additional explanation beyond Nature’s usual forces.
Since Climate Science says it cannot “explain” the past without using CO2 as a primary driver of climate and adjusting other factors to fit, but it cannot make any successful predictions with using CO2 as a primary driver of climate, its hypotheses are falsified, leaving natural forces, perhaps with a fairly low level of CO2 operative, completely sufficient to explain climate and weather.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 5:47 pm

Robert E. Phelan says: “You’ll fail to understand why the torch and pitchfork bearers have come for you.”

Now there’s a vivid image … it’s straight outta Young Frankenstein … the “conservative war on science” come to life. 🙂
Don’t worry, Robert … me and the Pope … the world’s CEOs, admirals and military strategists … the Boone and Crockett Club together with Ducks Unlimited and the Audubon Socity … and plenty of young forlks from the World Scouting Organization … we’ll all put some shrimp on the barbie for yah!   🙂

November 23, 2011 5:55 pm

Stephen Wilde says:
“…I couldn’t find any strong scientific evidence in favour of AGW. The strongest there is being the simple observations of Arrhenius but that tells us nothing of the system response to that which he observed. Everything since is just speculation unsupported by empirical data. Nothing yet observed is outside the normal range of natural variability.”
Arrhenius’ predictions were wrong. And you are correct, there is no evidence, either weak or strong, that proves the AGW conjecture, per the scientific method. That’s why AGW is a conjecture, and not a testable hypothesis.
In fact, after rising a hefty 40%, CO2 has caused no measurable warming. The trend line from the LIA is the same; warming has not accelerated, as was universally predicted by the alarmist crowd over the last few decades. Why were they so wrong in their predictions?
The answer is simple: the sensitivity to CO2 was vastly overstated. As it turns out, CO2 has very little if any effect on temperature. At most there might be about a 1°C rise for a doubling of CO2 – an extremely unlikely scenario, as there isn’t enough recoverable fossil fuel to double current CO2 levels. [And a 1 – 2 degree rise would be a net benefit, opening up millions of new arable acres in places like Siberia, Mongolia and Canada.]
These climategate 2.0 emails show that self-serving climate charlatans like Mann and his clique privately discussed the fact that their catastrophic AGW predictions weren’t panning out. They either couldn’t understand the simple answer that CO2 causes little or no warming, or they know – but their grant gravy train is too delicious to give up, so they continue to promote the CAGW lie.
I despise what they’re doing, but at least I can understand their ulterior motive for trading in their ethics and honesty for undeserved taxpayer loot. What I have a hard time with are the unpaid lemmings who comment at Pseudo-Skeptical Pseudo-Science and realclimatealarmism, and who still believe that runaway global warming is right around the corner, despite the lack of any real world evidence.
The fact is that CO2 is completely harmless, and it is verifiably beneficial. More is better, at current and projected concentrations. Yet the demonization of benign “carbon” continues …because there’s still big money in climate alarmism.

Editor
November 23, 2011 5:56 pm

Marc Malone has some interesting comments on “A Physicist” here, from their interaction in the thread here.
It appears WUWT is not the only site he is infesting.
Best advice? DFTT, Don’t Feed The Trolls. “A Physicist” is beyond the reach of any life preserver of assistance or suasion that even the best intentioned might throw him, there’s nothing we can do to stop him from drowning in his monomania.
Let him blather on, his rants are amusing in a pathological kind of way, and just point and laugh when he goes off on another round of windmill-tilting. The amazing thing for me is, despite his leagues of perorations, he has yet to produce a single fact or item of substance. It’s uncanny! Most people can’t go anywhere near that long without slipping up and putting in at least one falsifiable claim. But A Physicist has an amazing staying power for prolonged substance-free vacuity that we mortals can only gape at in envy …
In any case, folks, how about a big round of applause for A Physicist, and our thanks for playing. And before you leave, here’s Bob Barker to tell you what you’ve won. Bob, what prize will A Physicist walk away with?
w.

Ed
November 23, 2011 6:00 pm

Physicist, the ship specified in the article you have linked to, the “Vladimir Tikhonov” is an ice class 1A ice breaker. From the reference below, “Perseverance, STI Heritage and Vladimir Tikhonov are all ice class 1A tankers and all were on charter to Novatek, Russia’s second largest gas company, for their NSR voyages.”
And “Vladimir Tikhonov, with the assistance of two icebreaker escorts, sailed in the challenging high Arctic latitudes to the north of the Novosibirsk Islands along a sea lane where the Arctic Ocean water depths are amongst the greatest and ice conditions remain relatively harsh even in the summer.”
Many Russian transport ships are both ice breakers and transports. Additionally, you can see that these ships, and specifically the “Vladimir Tikhonov” did their crossing through the Arctic sea with the assistance of separate ice breaking vessels, in addition to their own ice breaking capabilities.
The “record breaking” part of this is that these crossings were specifically undertaken, with the assistance of multiple ice breakers, to make the crossing through the large ice sections faster than had been done previously.
The implication that ordinary ships just sailed across the Arctic in a record breaking event is false.
References
http://www.safety4sea.com/page/6574/9/setting-new-records-on-the-northern-sea-route (describes the Vladimir Tikhonov crossing)
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/Arctic_Presentation_MORTENSEN.pdf (explains the different ice classifications for ships)

A physicist
November 23, 2011 6:08 pm

JPeden says: “There also is in fact nothing new in climate and weather “outside the normal range of natural variability” that even needs an additional explanation beyond Nature’s usual forces.”

That’s odd … the Pope’s Pontifical Academy totally disagrees … so hmmmm … those Vatican scientists must be all morons … or else … they’re witches!!    🙂
Seriously, JPeden, what *is* your explanation of the Vatican’s thinking in this matter? Feel free to omit all slogan-chanting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting from your response. `Cuz these Vatican guys (1) are mighty smart, (2) take the long view and (3) aren’t in it for the money, yah know.

JPeden
November 23, 2011 6:12 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 4:46 pm
A physicist says: Again, you present Arctic sea ice volume data that goes only back to 1978.
As sea-faring folks know, Russian records extending back to 1525 show no evidence of an ice-free Northern Sea Route … a sea-route that this year has opened wide to multiple record-smashing SUEZMAX supertanker passages.

Ok, so now let’s assume that “an ice-free Norhern Sea Route” is new, although it’s extremely doubtful that it is new and you have given no evidence that it is or that it is due to rising CO2 levels. But assuming it’s true, the problem then is that A implies B does not mean that B implies A. Especially when A has been wrong 100% otherwise, and when C, a decrease in Antarctic sea ice should have also occurred given A, instead of the opposite, which seems to be a feature of Climate Science’s CO2 = CAGW “hypotheses”, which simply can’t be falsified, unlike the hypotheses of real science.
You and the Climate Scientists will simply not let your “hypotheses” be falsified and instead only persist with what is essentially only a massive “perception is reality” Propaganda Operation which you want to “win” politically, and in direct contradiction to reality. That’s not real science, and you should know it!

JPeden
November 23, 2011 6:15 pm

What do I care about what the Vatican thinks? That would seem to be more up your alley, given your anti-scientific Religious fervor and “proofs”.

Chris B
November 23, 2011 6:21 pm

A prize suitable for a troll…..a trololo singalong.

vigilantfish
November 23, 2011 6:24 pm

The warm and fuzzy, nostalgic pleasures of memories of Nov. 19, 2009 and the months ensuing has totally been shattered by the irritating intrusions of ‘The Pharmacist’. I wish people would not feed the troll. It has not added any meritorious insights or arguments, and has completely disrupted the focus on the newly released e-mails. It’s winning, through totally ignoring any arguments you throw at it, and repeating its tiresome slogans to wind you up. Don’t waste precious moments of your lives engaging with this troll.

Latitude
November 23, 2011 6:24 pm

From: Phil Jones
Sent: Wednesday, December 03, 2008 1:31 PM
To: Palmer Dave Mr (LIB)
Subject: Re: FW: FOI_08-50 ; EIR_08-01
Dave,
Do I understand it correctly – if he doesn’t pay the 10 we don’t have to respond?
With the earlier FOI requests re David Holland, I wasted a part of a day deleting numerous emails and exchanges with almost all the skeptics. So I have virtually nothing. I even deleted the email that I inadvertently sent. There might be some bits of pieces of paper, but I’m not wasting my time going through these.
Cheers
Phil
=====================================================
Phil Jones
Nov. 24, 2009 : “We’ve not deleted any emails or data here at CRU”
=====================================================
So Phil Jones wasted part of a day deleting emails…..
…..and one year later says he has not deleted emails
Didn’t Jones also testify that he had not deleted emails?
http://www.real-science.com/smoking-gun-phil-jones

philincalifornia
November 23, 2011 6:26 pm

Have A Physicist and R. Gates ever been seen in the same room together ??

markus
November 23, 2011 6:28 pm

Ha Ha ha. “A physicist” who believes a Pope who believes in a supernatural God. Ha Ha ha.

November 23, 2011 6:29 pm

“The Wheels Of Justice Grind Slowly, But They Grind Exceeding Finely.”
“Global Warming” and it’s ‘scientists’ continue to be ground into a fine powder. I have sublime feelings of happiness seeing the truth win out!

A physicist
November 23, 2011 6:29 pm

Ed says: The “record breaking” part of this is that these crossings were specifically undertaken, with the assistance of multiple ice breakers, to make the crossing through the large ice sections faster than had been done previously.
The implication that ordinary ships just sailed across the Arctic in a record breaking event is false.

Read a little deeper Ed. During the 2011 Arctic Sea crossings the (many!) cargo ships making the passage encountered zero pack-ice, only small amounts of brash ice,zero pirates (which saves greatly on nautical insurance!) and therefore required no ice-breaking assistance … although needless to say, the Russians were happy to collect fees to have their nuclear ice-breakers standing by!
So yes, these ice-free Arctic Sea transits are unprecedented in nautical history. What the Russians now intend is to use their nuclear icebreakers to open year-round Arctic Sea passage, even in the (greatly thinned by AGW) winter ice.
These are the behind-the-scenes economic considerations that are leading hard-nosed shipping CEOs and naval strategists around the world to abandon their climate-change skepticism.

Ed
November 23, 2011 6:32 pm

Also, the two ice breakers that accompanied the Vladimer Tihonov are the two most powerful ice breakers in the world, both of which are nuclear powered.
Reference
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/tanker-vladimir-tikhonov-completes-successful-northern-sea-route-transit-in-a-week

November 23, 2011 6:34 pm

I wonder what Judith Curry is feeling about this?

Editor
November 23, 2011 6:37 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 6:08 pm

… That’s odd … the Pope’s Pontifical Academy totally disagrees … so hmmmm … those Vatican scientists must be all morons … or else … they’re witches!!

Having just wasted the time necessary to peruse their report, I’m forced to go with choice A, “morons”. Actually, I’d say “True Believers”, but it wasn’t on your list of choices …
w.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 6:41 pm

There is no “ice free” Northern Route. The Northeast passage still needs to be prepared with icebreakers. Russia is expected to have the required infrastructure in place to support Northeast Passage oil shipments within 10 years. Sure, you can sometimes get tankers through there for brief periods. This was a year, for example, when the wind pushed the ice against the Canadian side of the Arctic Ocean. In a year when the wind pushes it against the Russian side, there will be no shipping unless the Russians could, in effect, break up the entire ice pack. It doesn’t have to do with temperature, it has more to do with wind direction. I don’t put it past the Russians to break up the entire ice pack if they can, as it is a hazard to shipping and they really don’t give a pinch of owl scat about any polar bears.

November 23, 2011 6:45 pm

Someone upthread posted the [non] “Physicist’s” gravatar:
http://en.gravatar.com/sidles
A bow tie! Yikes.☺ [<– deliberate razz, since his always-wrong 'facts' are too easy to refute.]

A physicist
November 23, 2011 6:53 pm

JPeden says: “What do I care about what the Vatican thinks? That would seem to be more up your alley, given your anti-scientific Religious fervor and ‘proofs’.

That faith and science can coexist in amity and mutual benefit — especially in regard to the moral and economic challenges of climate change — is wisdom that the Vatican has fully embraced.
Climate change skeptics, not so much, eh?
By the way, JPeden, sediment records indicate that it’s been about 10,000 years since our planet last saw ice-free Arctic seasons.
So maybe the Vatican is right? Let’s think about it, eh?

Fernando
November 23, 2011 6:57 pm

I look forward to the next up date …..

John Whitman
November 23, 2011 7:01 pm

What I find provocative is that Tim Osborn figured prominently in the IPCC’s seemingly intentional process degradation in the preparations of AR4 (see release 1.0 and release 2.0 of climategate emails) and he is currently a significant figure in preparation for AR5.
This needs close review to evaluate what changes should be advised about Tim Osborn’s position wrt AR5.
John

A physicist
November 23, 2011 7:04 pm

crosspatch says: “Sure, you can sometimes get tankers through there for brief periods. This was a year, for example, when the wind pushed the ice against the Canadian side of the Arctic Ocean.”

It’s mighty instructive, crosspatch, that the sea-merchant press is reporting that both the Canadian and Russian Arctic Sea Routes were open simultaneously in 2011. It’s the first time this has happened (as sediment records indicate) in ten thousand years.
Hmmm … maybe this gave the Vatican to think, eh?

Lance of BC
November 23, 2011 7:09 pm

I don’t know what is funnier, the comments by “a physicis(bo)t “or you guys arguing with a bot?! hehe!
* gets more popcorn

JPeden
November 23, 2011 7:10 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 6:29 pm
These are the behind-the-scenes economic considerations that are leading hard-nosed shipping CEOs and naval strategists around the world to abandon their climate-change skepticism.
The term “climate change” has been now made by your own Propaganda Operation to be equivalent to “CO2 = CAGW”. So it is you and Climate Science that does not believe in natural climate change having ever occurred.
Therefore, I seriously doubt what you say about “hard-nosed shipping CEOs and naval strategists” abandoning “their climate-change skepticism”, and especially in favor of your own verbal denialism placing fossil fuel CO2 as a sole cause of all “climate change”. But if they think the Arctic will be navigable for whatever reason, it’s fine with me, as long as they’re not going to get any “stimulus” money from me or my offspring, or turn out to be trusting people like you and John Corzine to place their bets.

Dave Wendt
November 23, 2011 7:16 pm

In Re the Northeast Passage
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/09/pictures-tell-story.html
http://www.cnrs-scrn.org/northern_mariner/vol03/tnm_3_2_1-17.pdf
Nothing new or earthshaking, it’s been going on since shortly after the turn of the previous century at least.

November 23, 2011 7:16 pm

I’d post the peer reviewed paper explaining the evidence of an ice-free Arctic 6 – 7,000 years ago, but what good would it do? Our newbie thread hijacker is a poster boy for cognitive dissonance. And if AGW were occurring to any measurable extent, the steric sea level would be accelerating. It isn’t.
I’ve not run across anyone as deluded and misinformed as the fake physicist in a loooong time.

David Falkner
November 23, 2011 7:17 pm

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 7:04 pm
It’s mighty instructive, crosspatch, that the sea-merchant press is reporting that both the Canadian and Russian Arctic Sea Routes were open simultaneously in 2011.
Oh! No arguing with that! Oh wait, the article says 2008. Maybe this gives you time to think, huh?

mandas
November 23, 2011 7:25 pm

YAAAWWWNNNNNN!!!!!!!
I predict these emails will be twice as important as the past lot; ie 2 x zero = zero.

David Ball
November 23, 2011 7:32 pm

A physicist has done exactly what he set out to do. Distract. I wonder what benefit this is to him. Pretty sad and infantile way to get your jollies, …….
[Reply: True, and if he continues off topic he will be snipped. ~dbs, mod.]

November 23, 2011 7:32 pm

Lance of BC says:
November 23, 2011 at 7:09 pm
I don’t know what is funnier, the comments by “a physicis(bo)t “or you guys arguing with a bot?! hehe!
* gets more popcorn

I’m with you Lance –
This is the most popcorn worthy WUWT thread ever.

JPeden
November 23, 2011 7:35 pm

I’ll have to give it to you though, A physicist, you are making the case for CO2 = CAGW about as well as it can be made. So if the best Climate Scientists will still not accept you as one of their own and share some Gov’t gravy with you, it looks like they are probably violating your “Civil Rights”, or something, and the great Gloria Allred will no doubt be available to help you recover a “cash award” now that she’s been so unfairly stuffed silent in her valiant pro bono “smear Herman Cain” campaign.
A physicist, you finally got lucky!

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 7:39 pm

both the Canadian and Russian Arctic Sea Routes were open simultaneously in 2011. It’s the first time this has happened (as sediment records indicate) in ten thousand years.

The Canadian route is broken constantly by ice breakers starting as soon as they can begin work, the Russians do the same on the Northeast Passage. That route is worked all summer to keep that ice broken up. I am not convinced that if the ice breakers didn’t work those routes that they would be naturally ice-free.
There is currently some controversy of if both passages were open and the only people making the absurd (in my opinion) “first time in ten thousand years” are the “warmanistas”.
1. Completely ice free summers were probably the norm during the Holocene climate optimum, less than 10,000 years ago.
2. Ice free passages during the MWP were probably the norm in summer as well when temperatures were warmer than today.
So you have to go back only 1000 years (not 10,000) to get a regularly ice-free arctic passages.
And again, it is likely the satellite pictures were misinterpreted and both passages were NOT open. Traffic via the Northeast Passage is accompanied by Russian icebreakers (they have at least one nuclear ice breaker for this purpose).

This would have been the first time since satellite records began that both the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route had been open simultaneously.[8] However, other scientists suggested that the satellite images may have been misread and that the sea route was not yet passable.[9]
The Bremen-based Beluga Group claimed in 2009 to be the first Western company to attempt to cross the Northern Sea Route for shipping without assistance from icebreakers, cutting 4000 nautical miles off the journey between Ulsan, Korea and Rotterdam.[8][10]
However, the new (2008) ice-strengthened heavy lift vessels Beluga Fraternity and Beluga Foresight commenced an East-to-West passage of the Northern Sea Route in August 2009 [9][11] as part of a small convoy escorted by the Russian nuclear icebreaker NS 50 Let Pobedy, westward through the Bering, Sannikov, and Vilkitskiy Straits. The two vessels embarked Russian ice pilots for the voyage to the western Siberian port of Novyy, in the Yamburg region in the delta of the Ob River. The ships arrived at Novvy on 7 September, discharged their cargo to barges and departed on 12 September, bound for the Kara Gates and Rotterdam.
They were the first non-Russian commercial vessels to complete this journey, but not without Russian assistance.[12] The captain of the Beluga Foresight, Valeriy Durov, described the achievement as “great news for our industry”.[12]

A physicist
November 23, 2011 7:40 pm

[snip. O/T. ~dbs, mod.]

Dallas1965
November 23, 2011 7:44 pm

@BC Lance, I’m amused too. But, he’s not a bot, just a guy with a weak one-track mind.
Over on the PJ Tattler, he accidentally self outed himself by making two identical comments, one with his email address and one with his handle. See the two comments here where he self outs:
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/comment/66750/
and
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/comment/66753/
Since he self-outed publicly he’s fair game to tell you about.
Using his email address, you find “a physicist” who takes after Bill Nye, complete with a clown tie:
http://www.orthop.washington.edu/PatientCare/OurServices/Research/ResearchScientists/JohnASidlesPhD.aspx
He’s sharp about some things, like sports medicine and some quantum stuff, getting an award this year, but dumb as a post when it comes to other things.
http://engage.washington.edu/site/PageNavigator/UWMedicine/OnlineNews/OnlineNews_5132011R
At PJ we soon tired of his clown-like ways like you guys.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 7:49 pm

So I would accept a statement saying something like “Possibly the first time they have both been ice free since satellite observation in 1979” but that would be about as far as I would be willing to go because anything else is simply speculation. We can not observe if the passage is open before sending ships in there. We couldn’t do that before so it might have been open many times when ships didn’t make the transit because they couldn’t know in advance if it was open or not.

wayne
November 23, 2011 7:52 pm

David L, thanks for the reply and agreement. By the words you write in your posts above you are a very honest and thoughtful scientist, it shines through. Thank goodness you have the insight to see what I was pointing out. Few do.
On fitting, here is a link I stumbled upon while reading comments on The Blackboard that shows others are also seeing this near invisible and insidious pattern within the emails released.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2011/son-of-climategate/#comment-85960
Kenneth Fritsch (Comment #85960)
November 22nd, 2011 at 11:43 am
To me the part of the email excerpted by Zeke and shown below is very telling and makes the point rather directly without any nuance as I view it. In the end selecting a model by the method endorsed below is not very different than a direct tuning of the model. It is those models that get “thrown away” that we have to know and talk about.

Tuning without explicit tuning.
Fitting without explicitly fitting.
The bolding is mine. Read it.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 7:52 pm

“We can not observe if the passage is open”
Should be “We can now observe if the passage is open”

David Falkner
November 23, 2011 7:54 pm

Well, to get the topic back on thread then, how about this email from Chris Folland in the Met Office. He says that:
However this fits well only when an underlying net GHG+aerosol warming of 0.15C per decade is fitted in the statistical models. In a sense the methods we use would automatically fit to a reduced net warming rate so Mike McCracken can be told that. In other words the method creates it own transient climate sensitivity for recent warming. But the forcing rate underlying the method nevertheless perhaps sits a bit uncomfortably with the absolute forcing figures we are using from AR4.
That sounds to me like they know the math isn’t adding up. Anyone else?
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=4621

petermue
November 23, 2011 7:56 pm

Anthony, is it possible that “A physicist” is just another reincarnation of “thefordperfect” mentioned in the files?

Steve
November 23, 2011 7:59 pm

If these emails are so “spectacular” why has it been two years since the original release of stolen emails before these surfaced, conveniently well after the inquiry on climategate concluded.
I have seen nothing yet that I call spectacular, just the same old clipped out of context stuff as the first set of email back in Nov. 09.

November 23, 2011 8:00 pm

mandas says:
“YAAAWWWNNNNNN!!!!!!!
I predict these emails will be twice as important as the past lot; ie 2 x zero = zero.”
Don’t delude yourself. The first email dump did tremendous damage. This one is the second torpedo in the CAGW ship. Sooner or later she’s going down.

David Ball
November 23, 2011 8:02 pm

I am fascinated by the deluded notion of the “environmentalist” that it is nature that is weak and civilization that is strong.

P.F.
November 23, 2011 8:04 pm

A Physicist: It’s been nearly four hours now since my last response to you and you’ve posted subsequently five times, but failed to address the essential question(s) I posed. You have, apparently, abandoned the field in defeat. You have no evidence that now is warmer than 1000 years ago, do you. Neither did Mann with his cherry-picked Bristle Cone Pines or Briffa with his Yamal tree rings.
You seem terribly stuck with ships in the Arctic and the spotty Russian Arctic record. But that doesn’t prove that the Arctic is presently abnormally warm either. Avoiding slogans, cherries, and witches, here are some insights intended to help you better understand Arctic climate variations.
From AD1500 to before AD1300, there was a population of indigenous people (Thule culture) and a previous Dorset culture going back to around 500BC. The geology around known Dorset and Thule habitation sites in northern Greenland show that the sea level was up to three meters higher than now — even when corrected for PGR. In other words. It was much warmer then than now. Even the IPCC’s worst case scenarios measured by temperature or sea level do not rise to mean conditions experienced by those cultures in the High Arctic.
Archaeologists have found around 600 farms settled by Vikings from AD950 to 1350, and more sites are being found as ice recedes. These farms grew wheat to feed livestock. That can’t be done now. It’s too cold at any of the Viking habitation sites. In other words, it is much cooler now than it was just 700 years ago.
These simple, known facts demolish statements like “Nine of the last ten years have been the warmest in the history of the planet” (Congressman Ed Markey on CNN) or “1999 was the warmest in human history” (Al Gore during the presidential campaign). It also seriously compromises the conclusions of MBH98 (the Hockey Stick paper).
You are welcome to present contrary evidence, but, unfortunately, it appears your depth of knowledge is inadequate to defend your notion of accelerating human-caused global warming.

wayne
November 23, 2011 8:23 pm

David Ball says:
November 23, 2011 at 7:32 pm
A physicist has done exactly what he set out to do. Distract. I wonder what benefit this is to him. Pretty sad and infantile way to get your jollies, …….
[Reply: True, and if he continues off topic he will be snipped. ~dbs, mod.]

He’s a clear fire-spitting AGW troll, not A physicist, except possibly by letters daddy bought most likely,,, that little sign is hard to see that others should really heed —
PLEASE, DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS
OT or not! We have already heard everything he says many times over.

David Ball
November 23, 2011 8:26 pm

If the MSM shouts about this new batch they will have to admit that they bought AGW hook like and sinker.
If the academic world admits they were wrong, they fear they will lose funding and credibility (ok they both have a point there 8^D ).
None of them will EVER admit they are wrong. That takes courage and humility. I would have tons more respect for someone who admits he is wrong. Even consider further communication, otherwise, ………..
I am also wondering what other things are still unknown,……..
My personal opinion only.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 8:27 pm

The geology around known Dorset and Thule habitation sites in northern Greenland show that the sea level was up to three meters higher than now — even when corrected for PGR. In other words. It was much warmer then than now.

And it has been pretty well documented that Pacific Ocean sea levels were 2 meters higher than today during the Holocene Climate Optimum. That is from coral records so it might have actually been briefly higher but not long enough for substantial coral growth to occur that can withstand the pounding of today’s surf.
These claims about passage openings are based purely on speculation. It is quite obvious that it was much warmer in the higher latitudes during the MWP than it is today simply because things were being grown in places where those things won’t grow today. Valleys were being cultivated that are currently still under snow in the Alps, too, and as those alpine glaciers recede, they are exposing 5,000 year old wood showing that 5000 years ago that area was not only ice free, it was ice free long enough to become forested. And you must consider that where we are finding the wood is probably a considerable distance down the valley from where the glacier picked it up and transported it. 6,000 years ago there was much less glaciation at temperate latitudes than there is today.
It is quite possible that when Ötzi the ice man died, there was no ice there.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 8:28 pm

[snip]

November 23, 2011 8:31 pm

Climategate continues to grow; the hoax never ends; time to spend our time & energy solving “real” problems.

davidmhoffer
November 23, 2011 8:44 pm

A Physicist;
Putting aside for the moment the question of how long it has been since the arctic was ice free, can I ask some rather obvious questions?
How does the arctic being ice free in any way show anything other than the earth has been warming? The question is what is causing the warming, is it not? Do you have definitive evidence to show that the lower levels of ice are tied to anything other than the general warming trend the earth has been in since the last ice age?

David Ball
November 23, 2011 8:45 pm

wayne says:
November 23, 2011 at 8:23 pm
Ease up there wayne. I haven’t been battlin buddy. Read the thread. Haven’t said word one to a podiatrist. There have been hundreds like him throughout Anthony’s five years blogging. Unfortunately there will be hundreds more. They get bludgeoned and then go back their “home” blogs and claim they laid waste on WUWT? Cowards the lot. Appreciate if you back up off me about it.

A better physicist
November 23, 2011 8:49 pm

A physicist said; “slogan-chanting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting, wont someone please think of the children *sob* also slogan-chanting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting and the children, dont forget the children and slogan-chanting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting, also children. Never, never forget the children and slogan-chanting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting….”
He could have said other stuff as well but it was hard to get to for all the slogan-chanting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 8:52 pm

To recap:
1. There is no evidence that today’s temperatures are unusual for the recent Holocene (geologically speaking).
2. There is no evidence that the rate of recent temperature change is unusual and outside of the normal natural changes we have seen in the past.
3. There is apparently considerable doubt in the minds of the scientific community that they can show any human introduced signal in recent temperature variation.
4. The notion that human CO2 release will cause any measurable temperature change is a hypothesis validated only by computer models created by people subscribing to that hypothesis with no validating evidence found in observational records.

David Falkner
November 23, 2011 8:57 pm

http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/0059.txt
A call to climate campaigners!
What do you think would be the most effective
way to radicalise the UN agenda and protect the climate from our current economic
and political systems? There are plans for a team to work in USA on a parallel
campaign.
The project should begin by the end of 1999.

wayne
November 23, 2011 8:58 pm

@ Dave Wendt says:
November 22, 2011 at 9:42 pm
What in your understanding is the residence time of a photon of infrared energy emitted from the earth which is absorbed by a molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere? There are number of physicists among the community of commentors here. How about we do a short poll? How many of you guys or your colleagues in the physics community would use “heat trapping” as an analogy of what occurs in the radiative forcing that is supposedly the basis of the CAGW conjecture?

_____________________________________
Dave, I won’t get into a simple voting contest but I will give you some information of what I understand in physics so you can make the call yourself. Please, look it up any of this to confirm what I about to say. And a few statements will say ‘always’ but translate this to so rare you can ignore this immeasurable fraction.
First, there is no strictly vibrational absorption. It always includes rotation simultaneously. All IR radiation absorptions are rovibrational in nature. Look at that spectrum of CO2 and you will see lower side bands. Those are the vibrational at 667-669/cm plus any rotational energy.
Now, you asked how long a CO2 molecule holds on to the energy, its not so simple and you have to delve into Einstein A & B coefficients to answer that. The coefficients are in per second units. A is the rate at a specific wavelength that absorption occurs. B coefficient is on the emittance side. I have seen on the web a table of these but lost all of my climate notes, 800 papers and a thousand links recently so you will have to search for it. It’s in a PDF paper on spectrometry as I recall. That table listed the seven or eight prime frequencies clustered about the 667 prime vibrational peak. The rates varied from ~3/secont to 600/second depending on the exact frequency.
Now looking at the affinity of each frequency to absorb incoming radiation. The peak at 667 or so has the highest affinity where absorption is the strongest, think more tightly bound, low rate of emission, lower coefficient and less affinity on each bump to either the left and right of the peak, right being lower frequency, less energy. But these high rate emissions (600/second) are in the rotational component and there are a huge number of rotational energy levels, any molecule can easily jump between any of these levels shedding photons in the far infrared and microwave and you can imagine this causes a movement of that molecule’s energy to the right toward lower frequencies, for the energy just went down. These small emissions of rotational energy being shed can move the energy level clear past the peak and to the right side of CO2’s IR spectrum where the Einstein coefficient is larger, let’s pick one, 30/second. See it’s not a simple yes no answer.
Just remember, that about 40% of all outgoing radiation coming from the atmosphere at TOA is in the far infrared and microwave spectra range and this is primarily these rotational energies being shed by GHGs and the atmosphere as a whole. All accelerated electrons radiate, as in every collision, where either velocity and/or direction change.
Well… that’s the way I understand it.
See maybe
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/molecule/rotrig.html#c4
http://orca.phys.uvic.ca/~tatum/ Tatum, Stellar Atmospheres (ignore that on electron levels)
http://www.nrao.edu/index.php/learn/radioastronomy/radiowaves (IR included)

davidmhoffer
November 23, 2011 9:05 pm

A Physicist;
Manning’s incredibly sketchy two-man expedition failed — like all previous circumnavigation attempts had failed — because summer pack-ice blocked the attempt, forcing Manning and his hapless graduate student Andrew Macpherson to hike-out 100 miles over unexplored tundra, with the Arctic winter coming-on fast. The article tells the whole story in a wonderfully dry tone.>>>
Cleverly glossing over the fact that while Manning failed in 1952, Roald Amundsen completed the journey in 1906.

A physicist
November 23, 2011 9:10 pm

[snip. O/T, and endless threadjacking.]

David
November 23, 2011 9:11 pm

Please snip all further posts by a physicist until he addresses the post with substance.

paulsNZ
November 23, 2011 9:11 pm

I would love to a fly on the wall a the Department of Energy. WHO likes the idea hiding the raw data.

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 9:20 pm

Briffa in 2944.txt apparently concerning an audit of “98 and or 99 work in light of M and M”

To get the discussion going , we wish to ask your opinion(s) on the
concept, level of interaction between us and you guys ( in planning , or
also implementation , and synthesis, writing up?). What about this issue of
our perceived independence – do we give a damn?

wayne
November 23, 2011 9:34 pm

Anthony or mods:
Since not one word I have read coming out of “A physicist”‘s typing fingers having to do with physics could you please snip any further comments referencing “slogan-chanting, cherry-picking, and witch-hunting”, no matter who is propagating it? Enough insults.
He is clearly speaking of himself but using diversion tactics. (propaganda rule #13)

Heystoopid
November 23, 2011 9:35 pm

April First, 2009?

wayne
November 23, 2011 9:43 pm

David Ball, was not speaking of you! Sorry you thought that. Simply agreeing that this man (or boy, or lady) has gotten out-of-line, over-the-top. I can tolerate these persona’s insults but only to a point and he is way past it.

David Ball
November 23, 2011 9:58 pm

wayne, appreciate your reply. They do not realize how very revealing their posts are. Was looking at your links as well. Interesting,…..

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 10:02 pm

In 2336.txt we have Ben Matthews of UEA in 1997 mailing around a story to “Use the story to campaign for your workplace, university, school or town to use less fossil fuels. This could fit it with Local Agenda 21”
Of course, it appears the “bad guy” is Uncle Sam. Quite a display of political activism from someone’s official account. Is that generally allowed in the UK?

crosspatch
November 23, 2011 10:09 pm

5107.txt is Julie Burgess wondering if an email from an activist organization might be of interest to anyone as she blasts it out to everyone at CRU:

You have been referred to us as someone who is interested in global futures, sustainable development, and social justice issues.

And it is filled with the usual “watermelon organization” (green on the outside, red on the inside) buzzwords.

The brief of the IGFR is to build a macro interdisciplinary perspective by researching pivotal issues in the areas of peace and social justice, the global environment and climate change, poverty and Third World development, human rights and democracy, population, resources, international relations, the global economy, science and technology, urban planning, and comparative culture, to mention but some of the key areas.

Do they have a web page that automatically generates some of these phrases like the old “web economy B.S. generator” had? “macro interdisciplinary” indeed!

Steve Garcia
November 23, 2011 10:23 pm

Thread behavior comments:
1. I am ASTOUNDED that people are still responding to the troll named “A Physicist.” He IS a troll, identified by several people here, but not many have paid attention.
PEOPLE: STOP RESPONDING TO THE IDIOT.
YOU ARE LETTING HIM HIJACK THIS POST. PLEASE STOP.
It has been a PAIN, seeing so many of you let him drag you into pointless off-topic discussions that go nowhere.
2. More than a few comments mention “One of the emails said…” or something like that. On behalf of myself and everyone else, please NOTE THE NUMBER OF THE EMAIL IN YOUR COMMENT..

FirstClassFool
November 23, 2011 10:29 pm

Just for fun, repeat, courtesy Lewis Carrol.
The Hippie and the Corpulent
or
Ode to WUWT and Steve to WUWT and Steve
The sun was shining on the earth,
Dimming with all his might:
He did his very best to make
Mann’s reason really bright–
And this was odd, because it seems
At Starbucks there’s no light.
The profs were griping sulkily,
Because they thought no one
Had got business probing them
After the fraud was done–
“It’s very rude of Steve,” they said,
“To come and spoil the fun!”
The sea was huge as wet could be,
The deserts still were dry.
The winds were swirling
Just the same,
As reason passed us by.
The questioners were honest,
The scientists would lie.
Hippie and the Corpulent
Were surfing on the net
They wept like anything to see
That Wall Street’s just a bet.
“If we could only scare the world”
They said, “we’d get their debt!”
“Oh greenies come and surf with us”
Hansen did beseech
A simple trick, a mindless trip
In Google Earth’s fake reach.
We cannot do with more than four
To give a mil to each.
The sober thinkers looked at him
But not a word they said
“We need to get off foreign oil.
Who cares what’s in his head?
I’m sure our ends are similar,
But we’re not easily led.”
But four researchers hurried up
All eager for the trick
Their thinking stoned, their tactics honed,
Their ethics mostly sick–
And this was RIGHT, because you know,
extortion is a kick!
Four other dreamers followed them
And yet another four,
And thick and fast they came at last,
The media and more!
All looking for a Brand New Car,
And dreamily at Gore.
Hansen and the Goracle
slouched on a year or so.
And then they stooped down from the heights,
Conveniently low.
And all the little acolytes
just waited in a row.
“The time has come”, the UN said,
“To pay for many things.
For sycophants and secret clubs
To fly and live like kings.
And private jets and Switzerland,
Rapt groupies in the wings.”
“But wait a bit”, the public cried,
“Before we pass the hat,
We all are in foreclosure
And the future’s fallen flat!”
“Panic!”, said the Goracle
“Steve’s nose can smell a rat!”
“Hockey sticks and subterfuge
Are what we chiefly need.
Disable all reality,
This hoax we have to feed!
Some geeks are adding all this up,
Prohibit all that screed!”
“But don’t tax US”, the public said,
“We have to think this through!
Our math, so bad, but we can add,
Our earnings go to you!”
“The ice is gone!”, Jim Hansen screamed,
“Next summer, we’ll be through!
Real Climate thanked the remnant
and silenced all the rest.
For what use are the numbers,
when Gaia serves you best?
It failed to pay upon the day
the mole poop fouled the nest!
“It’s such a thrill”, the thinkers said,
“To roust them from their dumps,
Of simple tricks and media
That kicked us in the rumps.
We will not stop until their ilk
Has taken all their lumps.”
“We laugh at you”, the people said,
“We do not sympathize!
Unearthing all your data
Has opened up our eyes.
The blogosphere is EVERYONE
you need a good disguise!”
“Oh peons”, said the media
You fail to see the light,
“The hoax goes on, the stocks are pawns,
the planet’s in a plight!
If we can’t fool you one more time
we will resort to might”.
And then the savior stepped up
to cover all our sin.
“The planet first, the world is theirs,
we never planned to win.
I think that math and all that stuff,
are subject to my whim!”
The people saw the UN
had made a secret scheme
to grab it all in pretense
of making a new meme.
When really all they wanted,
was our financial cream.
The rest is up to you, dumb geeks,
the battle almost won.
Will we surrender common sense
or thank the quiet sun?
Thank EVERYONE who looks around.
and Watts is number ONE!

kwik
November 23, 2011 11:09 pm

I think the DoE mail pretty well shows us who the master pupeteer is. I am sure you all remember the youtube video where president after president in the US speaks of how important it it for the US to stop the dependence of oil.
President after president. All the way back to the 50’ies. But nothing happened.
Their problem was that fossil fuels are so cheap. So their solution is to make it artificially expensive.
With taxes.
That, in their mind, will force research and development on reneewables. They dont want to wait for it to happen through free markeds. That is, when fossile fuels gets scarce, the price goes up.
So, they need to tell the public that there is a reason for tax increase.
Hence, CO2.

Frederick Davies
November 23, 2011 11:10 pm

Is it just me or did the ads in this page suddenly became processor hogs?
FD

mkurbo
November 23, 2011 11:11 pm

paulsNZ says:
November 23, 2011 at 9:11 pm
“I would love to a fly on the wall at the Department of Energy. WHO likes the idea hiding the raw data.”
>>>
Staffer: Uhmmm, Secretary Chu ?, do you have a minute to meet behind closed doors ?
Chu: What is it now ? ..another Solyndra debacle ?
Staffer: I rather discuss it with you confidentially ?
Chu: No time, can’t you see we already have too many fires to put out ?
Staffer: We’ve had another email release…
Chu: On what ? Bright Source, SunPower, Keystone ??? ..which one ?
Staffer: No sir, five thousand more emails of a “Climategate” nature…
Chu: I thought we took care of that ? ..I thought we hid the data ??
Staffer: Sir, they seem to be rather damning… ..what would like me to do ?
Chu: Just bury it until after the election. Call what’s his name – – “A physicist” to start spinning it……..

Mann Bearpig
November 24, 2011 1:20 am

Phil Jones has replied on CRU
http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/CRUstatements/rebuttalsandcorrections/phrasesexplained
‘Phrases Explained’ – : Perfect for those that want to be patronised.

Mann Bearpig
November 24, 2011 1:21 am

Addundum:
“I too don’t see why the schemes should be symmetrical. The temperature ones certainly will not as we’re choosing the periods to show the warming.”
Phrase Explained :
The full email exchange reveals that we were choosing colours for a chart covering periods that showed warming.

Rob Dekker
November 24, 2011 1:23 am

Just imagine, there are another 1/4 million emails to misinterpret, and to throw mud at scientists. WUWT has a bright future.

Geoff Sherrington
November 24, 2011 1:47 am

Normally I would not do this because I do not use the F-word, but it zooms in on interesting emails like a homing pigeon. Use it for a search word to get some emotive emails like this one, whose second last line could make quote of the week:
cc: Tim Osborn
date: Mon Dec 16 08:52:20 2002
from: Keith Briffa
subject: Re: Manuscript Files
to: Ed Cook
ED sorry I thought the text had already been sent. I attach it.
Re the modelling fucking up the recent submissions – I am sending you (later today) also a
couple of proposals we have just had funded. Is it possible you can include some analysis
of the these model runs (albeit from European Modelling institutes?). As you can see , the
only plans in this context are to do 500 year runs , but they incorporate control, natural
, and natural+anthropogenic runs. You can argue that the common “natural ” runs use
forcings that may not be correct (ie land use change is a problem in my opinion , and the
volcanic forcing put together by Tom Crowley could be disputed), but virtually the same
forcings are used in both models and this allows inter-model sensitivities to be examined.
You can have access to these results and anyway you are explicitly a collaborator on these
contracts . We would need to talk about who would do analyses of the model/data but this
might offer something alternative to deflect the model critics over there – this is
probably a model group conflict thing. best wishes
Keith
At 11:31 AM 12/13/02 -0500, you wrote:
Hi Keith,
Did you intend only to send me the figures and not the ms? Send me the ms to if you can.
Otherwise, I can’t proceed with my review of it.
I think that you are off the INQUA hook. I thought that the Organizing Committee had
accepted my proposed symposium on supra-long tree-ring chronologies based on email with
them last Spring. Of course I have done fuck-all on it since which may have been just as
well. I went to the INQUA website today ([1]http://inqua2003.dri.edu/symposia.htm) and
did not find any reference to my proposed symposium. So I guess it is not going to
happen. Probably I should have contacted them before to let them know that I was still
intending to do it. Anyway, it is almost certainly too late now. I must say that I am
not shedding any tears over it. I’ve got much too much to do and have been receiving a
number of proposal rejections lately that have me a bit depressed. That includes the big
drought proposal with you and Tim as sub-contractors. We got fucked because of the
modelling part again. The proposal will be re-submitted to ESH on Jan 15.
Cheers,
Ed

==================================
Dr. Edward R. Cook

Jon
November 24, 2011 1:58 am

I think it is important to understand why this happend and still is happening?
As I see it “The Team” is just an effect of a political established doctrine.
It is politicians that established(1992) the UNFCCC, UN convention on climatic change. And since they have spend more than 10 billions USD each year to support their political established UNFCCC convention.
Its mostly ideology that is controlling science. Or science based on politics and policy.
Not what the age of enlightment is about. Politics and policy based on science.
In that context the real sinners and problem for democracy are the people behind and supporting the UNFCCC politically and with lots lots of money.

Rob Dekker
November 24, 2011 2:26 am

You guys seem to spend a lot of energy expressing your opinion on something as modaine as email exchanges between scientists, but slet me remind you that cientists actually publish their findings in the open. So here is one of the latest to contemplate :
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7374/full/nature10581.html

Enhanced advection of warm Atlantic water to the Arctic seems to be the main factor driving the decline of sea ice extent on multidecadal timescales, and may result from nonlinear feedbacks between sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These results reinforce the assertion that sea ice is an active component of Arctic climate variability and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming.

I know it’s a lot harder to actually construct a scientific agument sustained by evidence, than it is to simply vent an opinion about some emails, but maybe at least some of you can actually go beyond mere slander and come up with a scientific reasoning that addresses something more than taking emails out of context.

Pete
November 24, 2011 3:05 am

Steve Garcia says:
November 23, 2011 at 10:23 pm
“Thread behavior comments:
1. I am ASTOUNDED that people are still responding to the troll named “A Physicist.” He IS a troll, identified by several people here, but not many have paid attention.
PEOPLE: STOP RESPONDING TO THE IDIOT.”
Willis Eschenbach started it Steve!
November 23, 2011 at 5:56 pm
Best advice? DFTT, Don’t Feed The Trolls. and then Willis Eschenbach @
November 23, 2011 at 6:37 pm fed him!
Naughty, naughty boy Willis! Go stand in that corner! 😉

David L
November 24, 2011 3:10 am

@wayne
November 23, 2011 at 7:52 pm
I read your link…now I have another thread to track!!! My time spent behind the computer is growing exponentially. (Should I fit these two observations with an exponential, polynomial, sigmoidal, Weibull, other?)
My further point to all this nonsense model fitting for folks that don’t believe it truly is nonsense at the core: If model building based on backcasting predicted the future there would be a lot more Wall Street Millionaires. Why don’t we have accurate models to predict the stock market? There are certainly underlying principles governing the ebb and flow of stocks…and we have excellent historical stock data. In fact this data is far superior to any climate data that exists. It’s real data, collected in real time…not proxy data. We also have data of the environment in which the stock values fluctuate (socio-economic factors,political climate, etc). And yet there isn’t one model that can predict the future. Not one. Why? Nobody in the world would like to predict future stock values? Nobody tried? No…it’s because you can’t predict the future with a model because you don’t know all the underlying factors, interactions of those factors, etc. and most likely never will. Heisenberg’s Uncertainty principle guarantees that at some level (usually the quantum level) you can’t know all factors with certainty. (For those that don’t know this principle it states you can either know the momentum or the position of a particle but not both at the same time)

Stephen Wilde
November 24, 2011 3:26 am

There is clearly no evidence that the thermal characteristics of human emissions of CO2 have any measurable effect on global temperature equilibrium.
The bickering between scientists revealed in the emails provides proof of that.
Most of the comments in the emails relate to efforts to maintain the cause in spite of the lack of evidence.

Stephen Wilde
November 24, 2011 3:31 am

“and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming.”
Consistency with an unproven hypothesis has no value in itself. Correlation is not causation. The observations are also consistent with a more active late 20th century sun causing more zonal jets producing less clouds, more solar energy into the oceans, stronger El Ninos, more warm water flowing under the Arctic ice and so less ice.
I favour that explanation.

Pete in Cumbria UK
November 24, 2011 3:43 am

The chief medical officer fizzycist is to issue guidelines for people who want to keep breathing and have bodies
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/science-%26-technology/leaked-climate-emails-force-carbon-dioxide-to-resign-201111234578/

openside50
November 24, 2011 4:39 am

Is it normal behaviour for scientists to hire private investigators to dig the dirt on people who disagree with their work?
And why have the BBC gone straight to Mann and asked him for his views on these e-mails but not the person that Mann was proposing to nobble?
Odd

Henry Galt
November 24, 2011 4:58 am

Rob Dekker says:
November 24, 2011 at 2:26 am
These bunched up greasy sploogemops and their neophytes have laughed at us, smeared us, vilified us and committed hate crimes against us for merely inquiring into their methodology, requiring replicability and questioning their inferences. The opportunity presents itself for some of us to let off steam and joke amongst ourselves over their privately expressed uncertainty, amongst other far less wholesome shenanigans, versus the public facade they have presented of the polar opposite.
I will take that opportunity. I will not blame others for doing the same, or worse.
As to your cited paper – how did the waters warm? Hairdryer + bath = aeons.
The junk is seriously beginning to smell now. Global delta T in stasis is insufficient to prevent the stench of zombie corruption.

motsatt
November 24, 2011 5:07 am

Pete in Cumbria UK says:
November 24, 2011 at 3:43 am
The chief medical officer fizzycist is to issue guidelines for people who want to keep breathing and have bodies
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/science-%26-technology/leaked-climate-emails-force-carbon-dioxide-to-resign-201111234578/
That is priceless! 🙂

Tony Berry
November 24, 2011 5:14 am

What seems surprising is how little interest the UK press seems to be taking in the story, Mostly, they seem to report the new leak and then refer to the old ones and how the “scientist” involved had been cleared of impropriety. These new and damning e-mails appear to have been discarded as irrelevant, Curious!

November 24, 2011 5:15 am

@ FirstClassFool says:
November 23, 2011 at 10:29 pm
Little long, but clever and humorous.
crosspatch says:
November 23, 2011 at 8:52 pm

Good recap.
Small enough for “A Physicist” to laminate to carry around in his wallet.
For those that enjoy Thanksgiving – step away from your computer and have a great day.

November 24, 2011 5:35 am

“and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming.”

And the temperatures in the above 80°N as been below normal during the ice melt season this year as well as last year. Antarctic sea ice has been growing. This is in-consistent with the theory of anthropogenically forced warming.
We have discussed this very thing already on this blog. Search the archives.

Blade
November 24, 2011 5:44 am

Rob Dekker [November 24, 2011 at 2:26 am] says:
“I know it’s a lot harder to actually construct a scientific agument sustained by evidence, than it is to simply vent an opinion about some emails, but maybe at least some of you can actually go beyond mere slander and come up with a scientific reasoning that addresses something more than taking emails out of context.”

Ah but these aren’t just “some emails” now are they? These are emails that are in whole or in part owned by the taxpayers. They are a product manufactured while on our clock, using our equipment, processing our data. They also happen to be emails that were kept from their owners through a concerted effort of the perps involved. So moving on now, barely a day after these things were liberated is illogical, which is no doubt why you (AGW worshipper perhaps?) would suggest it.
Scientific arguments are constructed here every day, and night, 24.7.365. Since there is an extremely high level of intelligence and integrity among the people here you will find that they walk and chew gum at the same time just fine. In fact you should imagine WUWT as a massively parallel, multitasking and multithreaded universe as opposed to the cooperative multitasking one from whence you came. Your concern over WUWT spending time on ClimateGate 2.0 while duly noted, rings hollow.
Oh yeah, this bit: “I know it’s a lot harder to actually construct a scientific agument [sic] sustained by evidence …”, if you are talking about the AGW ‘Team’, I would have to agree fully. They do have this precise problem. In fact, that *is* the whole problem. They are very long on argument: (‘we’re gonna die‘), while completely devoid of evidence. All of the evidence as it comes along contradicts their arguments. It is they who have to work on that evidence thingie.
“Frankly, it is time that the tiny but well-connected and lavishly-funded clique that has been driving this scare from the outset realized that the science is in, the truth is out, the game is up and the scare is over. — Monckton of Brenchley [November 21, 2011 at 2:32 am] — mere hours before ClimateGate 2.0 occurred!

Blade
November 24, 2011 5:46 am

I just have to comment about that troll John Sidles that was identified thanks to Jeff C, Lance of BC, Rob Crawford, Dallas1965. If he isn’t the perfect example of the Peter Principle in action I don’t know what is. Or perhaps a cry for help really. I do feel very sad for those parents that are spending their dwindling resources on tuiton for their young’ins, and for the taxpayers at large that are extorted into financing this fiasco of tenuring crackpots.
But for those worried about his successful threadjack, let’s look at the bright side …
As I write this there are 901 posts on this thread.
The troll posted 32 (plus 3 more snipped).
He received 153 replies, none favorable that I can see.
Thus, we can call this Anatomy of an Epic Fail in light of his often stated anticipation of everyone leaving the skeptical camp to join him!
Long ago we saw this phenomenon play out in countless newsgroups before we had this web thingie. The phrase ‘Don’t feed the troll‘ originated there but many of us realized that a troll almost always defeats their own purpose, particularly when the ‘feeding’ is detailed hammering counter-arguments.
You see, (and pay attention now John if you’re lurking), he caused nearly a 5:1 ratio in increased posts to a thread at an enemy camp. Or stating it another way, his actions netted 121 more posts arguing against his, and the Hockey Team’s AGW position. They can’t win for losing! John Sidles directly added 121 more posts countering the AGW ‘consensus’ to the blogosphere all by himself, and this is only today at WUWT. There is no upside for the Team and the AGW cult at all.
Mann, Jones, Hansen and Sidles are sitting in a rowboat that is taking on water and sinking fast. Now imagine that for every bucket of water that the three stooges scoop out, our genius troll John Sidles dumps in five more. Way to go! And keep up the good work John, but somewhere else!

Buffy Minton
November 24, 2011 6:01 am

Apologies if this has already been done:
Here’s the freshly decoded Mime attachments to the Climategate 2011 emails
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=IQEKC5SR

Tenuc
November 24, 2011 6:01 am

Looks like the MSM are stirring – this has just been picked up by the Daily Express here in UK.
CLIMATEGATE: LEAKED EMAILS SHOW SCIENTISTS MANIPULATED DATA ON GLOBAL WARMING
Link to article here…
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/285743/Climategate-Leaked-emails-show-scientists-manipulated-data-on-global-warming

A physicist
November 24, 2011 6:07 am

[snip. O/T, trolling and threadjacking. -REP]

JPeden
November 24, 2011 6:12 am

Rob Dekker says:
November 24, 2011 at 2:26 am
I know it’s a lot harder to actually construct a scientific agument sustained by evidence, than it is to simply vent an opinion about some emails, but maybe at least some of you can actually go beyond mere slander and come up with a scientific reasoning that addresses something more than taking emails out of context.
Maybe someday Climate Science will generate just one “hypothesis” that is not “consistent with” everything that happens, and that therefore might actually assert something possibly factual? Instead of its usual functional nonsense = gibberish? As in:
“These results reinforce the assertion that sea ice is an active component of Arctic climate variability and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming.”
Look, Rob, the extremely bland use of the term “consistent with” is actually telltale of the decrease in Arctic sea ice not being of any particular use in confirming CO2 = CAGW, as I and others have already noted above. So it is you who apparently knows nothing about the practice of real scientific method and principle science.
Climate Science will simply not let its “hypotheses” be contradicted by empirical evidence much less falsified, but instead just pushes on with trying to win a vague “perception is reality” Propaganda War by using every cynical Propaganda tactic known to man, including everything that happens being “consistent with” CO2 = CAGW, of course in isolation from everything else that has contradicted and even falsified the hypotheses involved.
So just what is your excuse for supporting Climate Science’s specifically anti-scientific “method” and its literal nonsense as compared to the real world?
The noble Climate Scientists are still trying to get just one empirical event to “prove” their “hypotheses” correct, which the decrease in Arctic sea ice doesn’t. But they don’t really care if they ever get anything right, because they are specifically not practicing real science.
Wake up!

Jason
November 24, 2011 6:39 am

Normal people do not wear orange shirts and huge bow ties.
The only sort of people who do are:
1. People who want people to think they are different and special. Those people are usually extroverts trapped in introverted lives. Such attire screams “look at me I’m different, treat me as special and superior”.
2. Clowns.
Make up your own minds and then for crying out loud stop feeding the troll.

Sven
November 24, 2011 6:44 am

What do sociologists say on climategate?
Interesting stuff!
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,694484,00.html

Ricardo
November 24, 2011 6:50 am

My last angry request. Could you PLEASE list accuweather as a TOP 100% WARMIST site. NOT ONE story on climategate 2 Pluuuuzzzz!!!!. You are doing a disservice to science by allowing them to be tagged as lukewarmers
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/climatechange/Science
thank you

JPeden
November 24, 2011 6:55 am

Jason says:
November 24, 2011 at 6:39 am
“Make up your own minds and then for crying out loud stop feeding the troll.”
“Troll”? When they’re giving Climate Science’s very best, er, arguments?

November 24, 2011 6:55 am

Blade says:
November 24, 2011 at 5:46 am
Mann, Jones, Hansen and Sidles are sitting in a rowboat that is taking on water and sinking fast. Now imagine that for every bucket of water that the three stooges scoop out, our genius troll John Sidles dumps in five more. Way to go! And keep up the good work John, but somewhere else!

Nice analogy Blade, except while the boat is taking on water,
these guys are trying to scoop out CO2!
🙂

Alix James
November 24, 2011 7:30 am

Now we got rid of the Fizzy Cyst, how about back to the program?
#1393:
If you want the paleo information spread around all chapters, you need people with paleo expertise on each chapter – and more than one person. Unfortunately, most colleagues dealing with modern climate still have little knowledge about paleo issues.
#5131
I would like to submit that the current climate models have such large
errors in simulating the statistics of regional (climate) that we are
not ready to provide policymakers a robust scientific basis for “action”
at regional scale. I am not referring to mitigation, I am strictly
referring to science based adaptation.
For example, we can not advise the policymakers about re-building the
city of New Orleans – or more generally about the habitability of the
Gulf-Coast – using climate models which have serious deficiencies in
simulating the strength, frequency and tracks of hurricanes.

beng
November 24, 2011 7:32 am

Is “A physicist” Michael Mann?
A physicist who lost his fizz? He needs to pump himself back up w/CO2…
[REPLY: No he is not. The troll has been already been outed and routed and he is NOT TCO, Dr. Mann or Professor Mandia. -REP]

Rich
November 24, 2011 7:45 am

This one made me laugh, Consensus? Where? 1953.txt
Tim,
> I have had a reply from Barbara saying I have until mid-Dec.
> I had to go to London yesterday and I took the file with me. I began by
> reading what I’d written before and looked at Michael’s report. I can’t
> really face up to writing more. Barbara wants two things :
>
> 1) What IPCC has concluded ?
> 2) What are Michael’s main points ?
>
> (2) is very difficult to summarise. I’m not sure what points he’s trying
> to make his science is so bad. If this paper were submitted to any
> reasonable peer-review journal it would not see the light of day.
>
> (1) IPCC concluded an awful lot – the best any reader can do is to
> read its summary. I made reference to this in my piece.
>
> I’ll accept your offer of a letter if you swing it.
>
> I’m away all next week in Crete !
>
> Cheers
> Phil
> Dr Phil Jones

Gail Combs
November 24, 2011 8:01 am

Oh, BOY ~ I think I may have struck GOLD!
Do not forget Friday Mukamperezida: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/25/they-had-to-burn-the-village-to-save-it-from-global-warming/
At http://foia2011.org I searched for worldbank.org and found 32 e-mails going back as far as 1998. I have only looked at three so far. Looks like the good old World Bank may be something of a puppet master.

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=4628
Summary for Policymakers to: Rwatson
Dear Bob, [Robert Watson of World Bank]
Thanks for giving us the opportunity to react to your thinking. It forces us to think more clearly about the main messages. I must admit that I am somewhat confused about the 26 page summary, since this comes very close to (although it is different from) the full-scale document the various teams are currently writing. My view would be that those teams take their own text as the starting point and try to improve/shorten it on the basis of your text. Here, I only respond to your main messages in italics and mainly focus on WG3 issues…..
Question 2:
I would not include a WG3 paragraph, like “The Kyoto Protocol has led to the
creation of new market mechanisms”
……
Long but worth reading. Seems Robert Watson of the World Bank was TELLING good old Rajendra Pachauri and the crowd what to put into the Summary for Policymakers
I wonder what the crowd at Occupy Wall Street would think of this e-mail?
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=4953
is about drumming up CAGW projects for the “USAID on the Supplemental Grant Program” and R. Watson at the World Bank is copied.
Here is another goodie where Kenneth M. Chomitz of the World Bank is interfering with how a peer reviewed journal is run.

Editorial for Climate Policy, Issue 2.
…. Dear Michael,
I really like the solution of presenting view and counterview articles. I retain some reservations about your proposed editorial. It seems to me that you have the difficult problem of wearing two hats: one as the advocate of particular policies and viewpoints, and the other as an editor of a journal which aspires to be a neutral forum for policy discussion. I appreciate and sympathize with the depth and grounding of your personal views. However, as editor, it seems to me, you have to bend over backwards to be neutral. The editorial uses charged words like ‘demonize’ and could easily spark the war of words you wish to avoid. A strongly worded editorial risks associating the journal with a particular viewpoint, and hence reducing the journal’s value and reputation as a neutral forum….
Kenneth M. Chomitz
Development Research Group
World Bank
…..
from: Hadi Dowlatabadi
subject: Re: [New] Editorial for Climate Policy, Issue 2.
Dear Ken,
I agree with your perspective, but why not set a realistic target? The editorial columns at Science, Nature and New Scientist have rarely hidden their subjective perspectives. I think there are shades to this, and Michael can be a shade grayer, but the passion is also important.
The dialogue approach allows him to be editor, hold strong opinions, but still be viewed as someone who is willing to listen. This is how Steve Schneider has conducted his reign at Climatic Change and I believe despite his well known personal perspectives he has been able to draw on many in the community to contribute to the dialogue that defines the differences in perspectives permeating this subject.
Hadi
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=4953

So it seems the Professional journals are also getting direction from the World Bank.
Climategate the present that just gives and gives. I can not wait to get back to the other 29 e-mails.
My search is here: http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=4&search=worldbank.org&sisea_offset=0

JPeden
November 24, 2011 8:03 am

Sven says:
November 24, 2011 at 6:44 am
What do sociologists say on climategate?
Interesting stuff!
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,694484,00.html

Yes, it’s narrative is interesting and even valuable, imo.
But what appeared at first glance to be fraud was actually merely a face-saving fudge: Tree-ring data indicates no global warming since the mid-20th century, and therefore contradicts the temperature measurements. The apparently erroneous tree data was thus corrected by the so-called “trick” with the temperature graphs.
Uh-huh, so in the current world of Sociology it’s not fraud to “correct” the inconvenient data behind the very Icon of CO2 = CAGW itself? Demonstrating that the “method” behind Climate Science is to never allow its “hypotheses” to be or even appear to be falsified in favor of its “perception is reality”, “consistent with” everything that happens, “anything goes” Propaganda Operation “science”?
Yes, the article’s narrative is interesting and contains a lot of good stuff, but it appears the Sociologists are indulging in a bit of postnormal shaping and modeling themselves. They gave credence to what is nothing more than just another run of the mill Apocalyptic pronouncement, didn’t mention its already massive deleterious effects, and never did refer very approvingly to the practice of real science’s very clear method and principles, at least beyond someone else’s call for complete transparency as the way out of the narrative’s apparent attempt to “equalize” the ~”warring camps”.
When the issue is that amongst everything else going on, one side is not practicing real science and the other is, and Sociologists should be able to recognize this. Back around 1964 the Sociologist, David Reisman, did in fact anticipate this Sociological shift in Individualism Reconsidered where he noticed a shift from “inner directed”, inherently principled individualistic thinking, to “other directed”, arbitrary groupist thinking in America. That’s all Climate Science is, a play on pre-Enlightenment groupthink.
So the current Sociologists apparently think the latter is what they are supposed to do, too, in raising up Climate Science via their own Sociology, that a little face-saving fudge against reality is ok?

Gail Combs
November 24, 2011 8:32 am

While Mann and Co. were stone walling FOIA’s from sceptics, it seems the “Team” was very happy to give the World Bank RAW DATA fast!
You have to read the entire group of e-mails lots of other juicy bits on temp data uncertainty but here is the info on just how fast the rats jump when it is the World Bank who comes calling.

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=4219
subject: Re: Fw: Need to draw the 1000 yr record on a World Bank cover asap
Hi Michael, [Mann]
Hope all’s well with you. I am finishing up a not particularly contemplative
sabbatical at the World Bank, working on their World Development report. We are 2 weeks away from printing and the cover we were going to use just appeared on another book.
Chaos and panic ensued….
Dear Keith –
I understand from Michael Mann (see exchange below) that you may be ableto provide us the raw data of the 12 proxy temperature reconstructions for the past 1000 years that were used for the “Dire Predictions” book. As you will gather from the emails below, we need to quickly redesign the cover of the forthcoming World Development Report on Development and Climate Change – the cover graphic we had chosen appeared on a different report 2 weeks ago …
Alex
I am forwading this message to Tim Osborn , my colleague in CRU who will be able to supply the data – he drew the Figures in the AR4 report and you might usefully discuss the data and figures directly with him. I am away from work for some time yet – good luck
Keith
Dear Alex,
I’ve made available all the data used in the IPCC AR4 paleo chapter (at….
Tim –
thanks for these. Having the source data will make things much easier for us. I hope you
enjoyed Perseid!
-alex

A physicist
November 24, 2011 8:46 am

[SNIP: you can post when you’ve learned to stay on topic and not repeat yourself. Hijacking threads will not be permitted. -REP]

Dan in California
November 24, 2011 8:46 am

A physicist says:N ovember 23, 2011 at 2:03 pm
Stephen Wilde says: Nothing yet observed is outside the normal range of natural variability.
Stephen, I’m sure you didn’t mean to say that! Gee, the levels of greenhouse gases that we’ve already injected are hugely outside the normal range of natural variability.
—————————————————————————————————
Sir, you are the one doing the cherry picking here. That data set doesn’t go back far enough in time to show the complete non-dependence of temperature and CO2. Here’s a longer term reference: http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange2/07_1.shtml Note there was no tipping point when CO2 was twice as high as today, and no tipping point when it was three times as high. That information is widely available,but I chose a reference from the University of California, an organization that nobody accuses of being conservative or right-wing.

gnomish
November 24, 2011 9:01 am

Happy Turkey Day to all at WUWT.
Thanks Anthony & mods & all contributors.
You’re an island of rationality in a sea of postnormal stupid.

Werner Brozek
November 24, 2011 9:03 am

Tenuc says:
November 24, 2011 at 6:01 am Link to article here…
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/285743/Climategate-Leaked-emails-show-scientists-manipulated-data-on-global-warming
Thanks! A quote from this:
The University of East Anglia said: “This appears to be a carefully-timed attempt to reignite controversy over the science behind climate change when that science has been vindicated by three separate independent inquiries.”
How does this agree with the following quote:
Lord Oxburgh wrote,
Dear Dr Mcintyre, Thank you for your message. What you report may or may not be the case. But as I have pointed out to you previously the science was not the subject of our study. Yours sincerely, Ron Oxburgh

Dan in California
November 24, 2011 9:21 am

Willis Eschenbach says: November 23, 2011 at 5:56 pm
Marc Malone has some interesting comments on “A Physicist” here, from their interaction in the thread here.
It appears WUWT is not the only site he is infesting.
Best advice? DFTT, Don’t Feed The Trolls. “A Physicist” is beyond the reach of any life preserver of assistance or suasion that even the best intentioned might throw him, there’s nothing we can do to stop him from drowning in his monomania.
—————————————————————————–
Willis, I enjoy all your posts and mostly agree with them. But here I disagree. Of course, arguing with a troll is like wrestling with a pig. You’re going to lose and the pig enjoys it. But I respond to trolls because they set up strawmen to be knocked down. If the strawman is an oft-stated AGW talking point, then I feel it useful to point out the rebuttal. It’s not for the troll’s benefit, it’s for this excellent blog’s other readers that might be pondering the strawman.

JonasM
November 24, 2011 9:36 am

WTF????
Email 4659.txt
date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 05:49:11 -0700
from: Spiritual Leader of the Global Community
subject: Planetary biodiversity zone under the protection of the GPA
Investigative Report
by
Germain Dufour
Spiritual Leader of the Global Community
President
Earth Government
Global Law[3] [cid:part2.48F5E6C7.8560D0F5@telus.net]
The Global Community has established a planetary biodiversity zone now under the protection
of the Global Protection Agency (GPA). We have declared a moratorium on all development in
the zone, including all drilling, military testing, and any other destructive uses of the
ecosystems.
The planetary biodiversity zone includes : [4] [cid:part2.48F5E6C7.8560D0F5@telus.net]
* North Pole region [5] [cid:part2.48F5E6C7.8560D0F5@telus.net]
* South Pole region
* all oceans
* all forests
* all lakes
* all rivers and connecting streams
* all wetlands and grasslands
* living organisms and ecosystems in all of the above
The people of all nations are required to respect the moratorium until global law has been
completed to include regulations to be enforced by the GPA.[6]
[cid:part2.48F5E6C7.8560D0F5@telus.net]
……ok…….. ????????

G. Karst
November 24, 2011 9:39 am

I found this reference to “Mikes Nature trick” in #3451

date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
from: Phil Jones
subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
to: ray bradley ,REDACTED, REDACTED
Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or
first thing tomorrow.
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual
land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999
for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with
data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
Thanks for the comments, Ray.
Cheers
Phil

REPLY: That’s from from Climategate 1 – Anthony

Steve Garcia
November 24, 2011 9:40 am

@A physicist says:
November 24, 2011 at 6:07 am
[snip. O/T, trolling and threadjacking. -REP]
Thanks, REP!!!

Ibrahim
November 24, 2011 9:52 am

Nice,
I see that [they’re] retracting their kot on the models at RC.

Chris B
November 24, 2011 9:53 am

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=724
Mann, murder and Vampire analogies. LOL
13:28:03 -0400
from: Edward Cook
subject: Re: Fwd: revised NH comparison manuscript
to: Keith Briffa
Yeah, “moot” is the proper term. I will try to be mute on the issue
for a while now.
I just got out of jury duty. I almost got on a jury for a murder
trial with possible sequestering. My scheduled trip with Nic for his
Uni orientation the end of this month saved the day.
Cheers,
Ed
>take your point re that’s enough – but I have to point out your
>Freudian slip re “moot point” or as you would have it when associted
>with Mike Mann – hopefully “Mute point” !
>love to Michelle
>Keith
>
>
>At 09:32 AM 7/15/REDACTEDyou wrote:
>>Hi Keith,
>>
>>Thanks for the paper and help in toning down Mike’s efforts to put
>>a stake in the Esper heart. I quickly read the paragraph you
>>mention. Undoubtedly part of what is said is true, but it doesn’t
>>explain it all of the differences between the original MBH
>>reconstruction and any of the other NH recons. Now that Mike has
>>moved on to a totally new NH recon, I suppose all of this is a mute
>>point. However, your Blowing Hot and Cold piece clearly showed that
>>the MBH estimates were undoubtedly deficient in low-frequency
>>variability compared to ANY other recon. Enough said. I need to
>>enjoy myself.
>>
>>Cheers,
>>
>>Ed
>>

Joseph
November 24, 2011 9:56 am

Kind of off topic:
I posted a comment regarding these new developments at SkepticalScience. My comment centered around the fact that climate science is corrupt and there’s no room for dissent. Furthermore, I mentioned that the CRU emails showed how corrupt and messed up the peer review process is. My comment was deleted.
Case settled.

Varco
November 24, 2011 10:19 am

#4894 Looks like vindication of the climate sceptic view, of a lack of BBC impartiality on climate change, from a senior BBC environment correspondent of all people… Oops!

Dan in California
November 24, 2011 10:31 am

These emails showed me the link between the University of East Anglia and the US Department of Energy as a funding source. I am now writing my first-ever letter to my US Congressman. The point of the letter is: Why is the US DOE using my tax money to fund climate science, and how is that relevant to DOE’s mission? Furthermore, why is my money going to foreign scientists who refuse to divulge their raw data? I urge you to cut DOE’s funding so they can get back to their mandate that is relevant to their mission.
PS, as I sit here composing this letter, I can look out my living room window and see hundreds of windmills that are not turning.

November 24, 2011 10:33 am

Gail Combs says:
November 24, 2011 at 8:01 am
At http://foia2011.org I searched for worldbank.org and found 32 e-mails going back as far as 1998. I have only looked at three so far. Looks like the good old World Bank may be something of a puppet master.

Tell me again why we can’t use the term “conspiracy”?

TheGoodLocust
November 24, 2011 10:34 am

I’m not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but wouldn’t it be logical to have the password protected file contain further password protected archives?
This would allow FOIA to release bite-sized chunks over a longer period of time.

Steve R
November 24, 2011 10:40 am

Have you noticed that the Richard Black BBC story on Climategate 2.0 has been buried? Yesterday it was the prime article on their “Sci / Enviro” section, but now it’s really really hard to find.
Interestingly the esteemed RB was getting comprehensively flamed for his overtly biased reporting at the comments section at the foot of his own article. Funnily enough beeb has stopped taking comments – assuming you can now find the article on the site in a “Nothing to see here, move along…” kind of fashion.
RB is at it again too:- Now fluffing for Chris Huhne MP, our comedic minister for climate change and driving offence scapegoating. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15874995
Sometimes you have to admire the thinking of Guy Fawkes a few centuries too early !

November 24, 2011 10:44 am

if you compare the results in my updated tables
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
with that of the leaf area index shown in the world chart here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/the-earths-biosphere-is-booming-data-suggests-that-co2-is-the-cause-part-2/
you will pick up a correlation
In the red areas, where we find earth is blooming, and more greening, you will note from the results in the tables that the increase in maxima is picked up and trapped by the increasing vegetation. In the blue areas, where substantial de-forestation has been going on, you will find mean temperatures and minima declining or staying unchanged, even though maxima are rising.
Now if we could get all these “scientific researchers” – I call them fraudsters – from universities actually doing some real research they would have found what an amateur climate scientist like me already figured
if you want a greener earth, it will get a little bit warmer.

G. Karst
November 24, 2011 10:57 am

REPLY: That’s from from Climategate 1 – Anthony
It is in the climategate 2 release. I have not seen any other duplicates. Could this be some sort of clue Anthony?? It is rather a “key” memo. GK

Dave Wendt
November 24, 2011 11:07 am

Viewing the benefits of this latest Thanksgiving “drop” i couldn’t help but be reminded of another memorable “drop” from sitcom history.

The late Gordon Jump has a bit more hair and is infinitely more likable, but his pure befuddlement sure brings our boy MM to mind.
For those not old enough to have seen the original a longer version is available here
http://www.kewego.com/video/iLyROoafYtDe.html

Alix James
November 24, 2011 11:12 am

Re: Spiritual Leader of the Global Community
I was thinking that this was just spam from a raving lunatic (well, it still is), but from 4966:
date: Wed, 23 Feb 2000 10:11:REDACTEDGMT Standard Time)
from: Janice Darch
subject: World Congress Call for Papers: the Preliminary Program is now
to: REDACTED
Dear All, Anyone interested?
janice
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2000 15:43:52 -0500
From: vdufour
Subject: World Congress Call for Papers: the Preliminary
Program is now ready
Sender: vdufour
To: “REDACTED”

I mean, SERIOUSLY?!? They don’t have time to answer an FOI, but can deal with these loons?

Stephen Wilde
November 24, 2011 11:17 am

Henry P
Interesting observations. I’ll give them some thought.
Thanks.

wayne
November 24, 2011 12:11 pm

Alix James says:
November 24, 2011 at 11:12 am
I mean, SERIOUSLY?!? They don’t have time to answer an FOI, but can deal with these loons?
____________________
Alix, I really think you need to read this: (loons yes, but they are here… here now….)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/24/world-bank-global-warming-journals-and-cru/#comment-807262

November 24, 2011 12:34 pm

Don’t miss this debate next week.
“The Climate Change Act Reconsidered”
1pm-4pm Wednesday 30 November 2011
House of Commons, Committee Room 14
Westminster
London SW1A 0AA
Come via main – St Stephens (Cromwell Green) entrance
Ask for Sammy Wilson’s (DUP MP) Meeting
Please allow 30 minutes for security
RSVP Eventbrite ticket required
See here: http://repealtheact.eventbrite.com/
Chairperson: Dr Philip Stott, Emeritus Professor of Biogeography at SOAS the University of London, and was Editor-in Chief of the International Journal of Biogeography.
Speakers:
Ruth Lea, former Economic Adviser and Director of Arbuthnot Banking Group and Director of Global Vision. She was a Governor of the London School of Economics. Ruth will speak on the impact of the Climate Change Act (including the Renewables Directive) on energy prices, manufacturing and business.
Matt Ridley, author of The Rational Optimist (winner of the Hayek prize), will speak on the potential for shale gas.
Prof Ian Plimer is Australia‘s best-known geologist and author of Heaven and Earth, Global warming: the missing science and How to get expelled from School: a guide to climate change for pupils parents and punters.
Donna Laframboise, journalist and author of The Delinquent Teenager who was mistaken for the world‘s top climate expert – an in depth investigation into the IPCC.
See Donna here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TYPwPXNazOs
“The Climate Change Act Reconsidered” is of great relevance today in light of scientific scandals and the public’s loss of trust in costly green climate and energy policies.
The Climate Change Act is having huge social and economic consequences, which MPs can no longer ignore. The EU’s and UK’s climate and energy policies are too expensive, too ambitious, too complex – and ineffective. The government’s blind faith in drastically reducing CO2 emissions and liberalising energy markets will profit only a select group of companies and officials at the expense of everyone else. MPs would do well to rethink these policies – before the public rises up in anger.
I look forward to meeting you there.

Editor
November 24, 2011 12:39 pm

Pete says:
November 24, 2011 at 3:05 am

Steve Garcia says:
November 23, 2011 at 10:23 pm
“Thread behavior comments:
1. I am ASTOUNDED that people are still responding to the troll named “A Physicist.” He IS a troll, identified by several people here, but not many have paid attention.
PEOPLE: STOP RESPONDING TO THE IDIOT.”
Willis Eschenbach started it Steve!
November 23, 2011 at 5:56 pm
Best advice? DFTT, Don’t Feed The Trolls. and then Willis Eschenbach @
November 23, 2011 at 6:37 pm fed him!
Naughty, naughty boy Willis! Go stand in that corner! 😉

It’s always OK to laugh at the trolls, which is what I did. I didn’t feed him. I invite folks to laugh at him, it’s the sovereign cure.
w.

Spector
November 24, 2011 12:45 pm

Perhaps the reason that the whole discipline of Climate Science appears to have gone off the deep end of carbon phobia is that those young students who have been radicalized by Green Earth propagandists are more likely than not to seek environment-related careers.
Thus, they may be represented in these professions out of all proportion to their numbers in the general population and believing themselves to be heroic defenders of the planet; (c.f. Supermandia) they insist that their view is correct, ruthlessly suppressing all dissent and thus they can impose their dogma on the whole profession.

Another Gareth
November 24, 2011 1:06 pm

I would like to applaud Michael E Mann’s use of the term ‘contrarian’. I don’t view ‘denier’ as offensive though many do and it is intriguing to see that Mann appears to have taken that view on board.

barry
November 24, 2011 1:16 pm

Happy days are here again! I’ve been saying since Spring that Climategate 2.0 would break this Autumn, and it’s nice to be right. I’m very much looking forward to reading all the naughty snippets that are gleaned from this latest batch, and earnestly hoping that they get considerably more MSM coverage this time.

Ah yes, the way of the climate skeptic. Read snippets, alert the press, but do not read the full text the snippets came from, in case the fuller context reveals the snippets to be distortions of what was actually meant.
But I’m a poor climate skeptic. My bias for fact-finding made me google for the full emails and replies. Lo! It was just as I feared – the snippets were distortions of the authors’ meaning, and the fuller context gave the lie to the original impression.
I will try to mend my ways, and pass on the quotes without checking the full context, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, not provide links to the full email the snippets come from.
Context is nothing. Quote mining = truth.

Matt G
November 24, 2011 1:17 pm

Rob Dekker says:
November 24, 2011 at 2:26 am
You guys seem to spend a lot of energy expressing your opinion on something as modaine as email exchanges between scientists, but slet me remind you that cientists actually publish their findings in the open. So here is one of the latest to contemplate :
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7374/full/nature10581.html
Enhanced advection of warm Atlantic water to the Arctic seems to be the main factor driving the decline of sea ice extent on multidecadal timescales, and may result from nonlinear feedbacks between sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These results reinforce the assertion that sea ice is an active component of Arctic climate variability and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming.
I know it’s a lot harder to actually construct a scientific agument sustained by evidence, than it is to simply vent an opinion about some emails, but maybe at least some of you can actually go beyond mere slander and come up with a scientific reasoning that addresses something more than taking emails out of context
REPLY
While there is evidence the Atlantic ocean has warmed and flows towards the sinks near and around the Arctic ocean, this is nothing new. The AMO shows this multidecadal timescales and has warmed and cooled before. This has nothing do with anthropogenically forced warming, there is no evidence CO2 has caused this trend and is just conjecture,
The AMO is an Atlantic ocean based cycle and has been warming as it should at this stage.
fhttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg/300px-Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg.png
Shows typically known sinks around the Arctic ocean where warm water (red) is surface current and blue (cold) deep flow (that has sunk)
http://www.whoi.edu/cms/images/oceanus/GlobeCurrentsMap_550_47170.jpg

JustaMom
November 24, 2011 1:17 pm

Raymond S. Bradley: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raymond_S._Bradley
responding to Frank Oldfield http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/thompson/Frank.pdf
# 157 Dated: 10 Jul 2000 Dated
…..”Unfortunately, the proxy network we used has not been updated, and furthermore there are many/some/
tree ring sites where there has been a “decoupling” between the long-term
relationship between climate and tree growth, so that things fall apart in
recent decades….this makes it very difficult to demonstrate what I just
claimed. We can only call on evidence from many other proxies for
“unprecedented” states in recent years (e.g. glaciers, isotopes in tropical
ice etc..). But there are (at least) two other problems — Keith Briffa
points out that the very strong trend in the 20th century calibration
period accounts for much of the success of our calibration and makes it
unlikely that we would be able be able to reconstruct such an extraordinary
period as the 1990s with much success (I may be mis-quoting him somewhat,
but that is the general thrust of his criticism). Indeed, in the
verification period, the biggest “miss” was an apparently very warm year in
the late 19th century that we did not get right at all. This makes
criticisms of the “antis” difficult to respond to (they have not yet risen
to this level of sophistication, but they are “on the
scent”). Furthermore, it may be that Mann et al simply don’t have the
long-term trend right, due to underestimation of low frequency info. in the
(very few) proxies that we used. We tried to demonstrate that this was not
a problem of the tree ring data we used by re-running the reconstruction
with & without tree rings, and indeed the two efforts were very similar —
but we could only do this back to about 1700. Whether we have the 1000
year trend right is far less certain (& one reason why I hedge my bets on
whether there were any periods in Medieval times that might have been
“warm”, to the irritation of my co-authors!). So, possibly if you crank up
the trend over 1000 years, you find that the envelope of uncertainty is
comparable with at least some of the future scenarios, which of course begs
the question as to what the likely forcing was 1000 years ago. (My money is
firmly on an increase in solar irradiance, based on the 10-Be data..).
Another issue is whether we have estimated the totality of uncertainty in
the long-term data set used — maybe the envelope is really much larger,
due to inherent characteristics of the proxy data themselves….again this
would cause the past and future envelopes to overlap.”…..

Stephen Wilde
November 24, 2011 1:19 pm

“I would like to applaud Michael E Mann’s use of the term ‘contrarian’”
Not so fast. English is a subtle language.
The epithet ‘contrary’ (pronounced ‘contrairy’ as in ‘fairy’) implies disagreeing for the sake of it without regard to the facts.
It is a less honest way of saying ‘denier’.

Alix James
November 24, 2011 1:31 pm

Alix, I really think you need to read this: (loons yes, but they are here… here now….)
Eeek. Looks like that not only have the lunatics started running the asylum, but they actually designed, built and staffed it as well.

barry
November 24, 2011 1:43 pm

Rich, you quote Michael Mann’s email about the MCA:

I pointed out to him that we certainly don’t know the GLOBAL mean temperature anomaly very well, and nobody has ever claimed we do (this is the question he asked everyone). There is very little information at all in the Southern Hemisphere on which to base any conclusion.
So I told him that of course the answer to that question is *no* and it would be surprising if anyone answered otherwise. But, as I proceeded to point out, that’s the wrong question. I pointed out that a far more sensible question is, “do we know the relative temperature anomaly for the NORTHERN HEMISPHERE to within that accuracy, and that we almost certainly do know that.

You asked

So is it global warming or hemispheric? Doesn’t he belittle the MWA down to it not being global?

Did you google for the full email?
It was written in 2006. Look up Mann’s work prior to 2006, and see if what he says in the email is inconsistent with his professional output.
No, Mann does not suggest NH MCA was probably cooler than now based on hemispheric differences, but on regional differences in the NH.
—————————————————————————————————-
I tell you what, unless a link to the original, full email accompanies any more snippets, I’m not going to bother. Lack of such tells me the contributor is only interested in the noise, not the signal, and that it will probably be pointless replying. The few I’ve already checked out give me no confidence that any actual smoking guns will be unearthed.

Peter Whale
November 24, 2011 2:03 pm

ate: Sat Nov 4 16:45:25 2000
from: Mike Hulme
subject: Fwd: BP funding
to: barker,vira
Any idea who at Cambridge has been benefitting from this BP money?
Mike
From: “Simon J Shackley”
Organization: umist
To: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk
Date: Thu, 2 Nov 2000 14:44:09 GMT
Subject: BP funding
Reply-to: Simon.Shackley@umist.ac.uk
CC: robin.smith@umist.ac.uk,
brian.launder@umist.ac.uk
Priority: normal
X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v3.12a)
dear TC colleagues
looks like BP have their cheque books out! How can TC benefit from
this largesse? I wonder who has received this money within Cambridge
University?
Cheers, Simon
17) BP, FORD GIVE $20 MILLION FOR PRINCETON UNIVERSITY
EMISSIONS
STUDY
Auto.com/Bloomberg News
October 26, 2000
Internet: [1]http://www.auto.com/industry/iwirc26_20001026.htm
LONDON — BP Amoco Plc, the world’s No. 3 publicly traded oil
company, and Ford Motor Co. said they will give Princeton
University $20 million over 10 years to study ways to reduce
carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. BP said it will give
$15 million. Ford, the world’s second-biggest automaker, is
donating $5 million. The gift is part of a partnership between the
companies aimed at addressing concerns about climate change.
Carbon dioxide is the most common of the greenhouse gases believed
to contribute to global warming.
London-based BP said it plans to give $85 million in the next
decade to universities in the U.S. and U.K. to study environmental
and energy issues. In the past two years, the company has pledged
$40 million to Cambridge University, $20 million to the University
of California at Berkeley and $10 million to the University of
Colorado at Boulder.
So who benefits from big oil?

Gail Combs
November 24, 2011 2:06 pm

JonasM says:
November 24, 2011 at 9:36 am
WTF????
Email 4659.txt
date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 05:49:11 -0700
from: Spiritual Leader of the Global Community
subject: Planetary biodiversity zone under the protection of the GPA
__________________
Unfortunately I think it is for real.
Dr. Robert T. Watson, Chief Scientist and Director, Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development, the World Bank., the guy in the e-mails I mentioned, (Former IPCC chair)

…Agenda 21 and the Rio Declaration are not binding documents. They are “soft
law” documents which are the foundation for future binding documents such as the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Convention on Biological Diversity….
The Convention on Biological Diversity requires the creation of “a system of protected areas.” The COP will adopt protocols to define what is an acceptable system of protected areas long after the treaty has been ratified. The binding treaties are written in language that appears to pursue environmental objectives: however, the principles upon which the treaties are based (The Rio Declaration) are in fact a refined re-statement of the principles for social change developed by the various socialist-dominated commission of the 1980s.
For example,
Principle 1:
“Human beings are at the center of concerns for sustainable development . .. ;”
Principle 2:
“National sovereignty is subject to international law . . . ;”
Principle 3:
“The right to development must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environmental needs of present and future generations;” social change is clearly the first objective of the Declaration.73 Dr. Dixy
Lee Ray, who attended the conference, reported:
The objective, clearly enunciated by the leaders of UNCED, is to bring about a change in the present system of independent nations. The future is to be World Government with central planning by the United Nations.”
….To assure that the COPs of the respective treaties were properly guided in their discussions of the protocols necessary for implementation, the UNEP/IUCN/WWF/WRI partnership launched a Global Biodiversity Assessment (GBA). Robert T. Watson, … was chosen to chair the project…..
A Chicago Tribune article by Jon Margolis, September 30, 1994, said that the Global Biodiversity Assessment was a process that had just begun, that no document existed. A participant in the GBA process had secretly photocopied several hundred pages of the peer-review draft of the document. Summaries of the draft documents were prepared and provided to every member of the U.S. Senate. The shocking details of the bizarre plan to transform societies was sufficient to block a ratification vote in the closing days of the 103rd Congress, despite the fact that the treaty had been approved by the Foreign Relations Committee by a vote of 16 to 3.
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/global_governance.htm

The plan in the USA was called the “Wildlands Project” MAP: http://www.klamathbucketbrigade.org/wildlands_project_map-_us-_or.htm (Green is where people are allowed)
Info on the bills: http://www.klamathbucketbrigade.org/YNTKwildlandsproject_table.htm
It has not died….
Rewilding Institute http://rewilding.org/rewildit/the-science-behind-continental-scale-conservation/the-need-for-roadless-wilderness-cores/
http://www.uga.edu/srel/ecoviews/ecoview060319.htm
http://www.sciamdigital.com/index.cfm?fa=Products.ViewIssuePreview&ARTICLEID_CHAR=77497531-2B35-221B-69365BD2F8F3AF8B
http://www.sharetrails.org/magazine/article/?id=643
As far as I can tell the elite want to turn North American into one large Hunting Preserve like the kings and nobles of old had. They even want to bring back “Pleistocene” fauna! http://www.rewilding.org/pleistocene_rewilding.html

barry
November 24, 2011 2:11 pm

More Soylent Green

So, will Mann stop his legal action to halt the release of his emails now?

If the action is a matter of principle, he won’t.

Andy Scott
November 24, 2011 2:12 pm

#0497 is an interesting one, Phil Jones angry at Mike Mann for slagging off CRU in “Science”:
cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk,mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, rbradley@geo.umass.edu
date: Thu, 06 May 1999 17:37:34 +0100
from: Phil Jones
subject: Straight to the Point
to: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu
Mike,
Just back from two weeks away and from discussions with Keith
and Tim and some emails you seem quite pissed off with us
all in CRU. I am somewhat at a loss to understand why. It is
clear from the emails that this relates to the emphasis placed
on a few words/phrases in Keith/Tim’s Science piece. These may not
be fully resolved but the piece comes out tomorrow. I don’t want
to open more wounds but I might by the end of the email.
I’ve not seen the censored email that Ray has mentioned but this
doesn’t, to my way of working, seem to be the way you should be
responding – ie slanging us all off to Science. We are all
trying to work together for the good of the ‘Science’. We have
disagreements – Ray, Malcolm, Keith and me have in the past,
but they get aired and eventually forgotten. We have never
resorted to slanging one another off to a journal ( as in this
case) or in reviewing papers or proposals. You may think Keith
or I have reviewed some of your papers but we haven’t. I’ve
reviewed Ray’s and Malcolm’s – constructively I hope where I
thought something could have been done better. I also know
you’ve reviewed my paper with Gabi very constructively.
So why all the beef now ?
Maybe it started with my Science piece last summer. When asked
to do this it was stressed to that I should discuss how your
Nature paper fitted in to the current issues in
paleoclimatology. This is what I thought I was doing. Julia
Uppenbrink asked me to do the same with your GRL paper but
I was too busy and passed it on to Keith. Again it seems a
very reasoned comment.
I would suspect that you’ve been unhappy about us coming out
with a paper going back 1000 years only a few months after
your Nature paper (back to 1400). Ray knew all about this as
he was one of the reviewers. Then the second Science comment
has come out with a tentative series going back 2000 years.
Both Science pieces give us a chance to discuss issues highly
relevant to the ‘science’, which is what we have both tried to
do.
Anyway that’s enough for now – I’ll see how you’ll respond,
if at all.
There are two things I’m going to say though :
1) Keith didn’t mention in his Science piece but both of us
think that you’re on very dodgy ground with this long-term
decline in temperatures on the 1000 year timescale. What
the real world has done over the last 6000 years and what
it ought to have done given our understandding of Milankovic
forcing are two very different things. I don’t think the
world was much warmer 6000 years ago – in a global sense
compared to the average of the last 1000 years, but this is
my opinion and I may change it given more evidence.
2) The errors don’t include all the possible factors. Even
though the tree-ring chronologies used have robust rbar
statistics for the whole 1000 years ( ie they lose nothing
because core numbers stay high throughout), they have lost
low frequency because of standardization. We’ve all tried
with RCS/very stiff splines/hardly any detrending to keep
this to a minimum, but until we know it is minimal it is
still worth mentioning. It is better we ( I mean all of us
here) put the caveats in ourselves than let others put them
in for us.
3) None of us here are trying to get material into IPCC. I’ve
given you my input through the review of the chapter in
Asheville. I may get a chance to see the whole thing again
at some stage, but I won’t be worried if I don’t.
I can’t think of a good ending, but hoping for a favourable
response, so we can still work together.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
—————————————————————————-

Editor
November 24, 2011 2:26 pm

barry says : “My bias for fact-finding made me google for the full emails and replies. Lo! It was just as I feared – the snippets were distortions of the authors’ meaning, and the fuller context gave the lie to the original impression.
I, and no doubt others here, have noted that you provided no supporting information in your comment. Present the information that supports what you say, and I (and I am sure, we) will listen.

November 24, 2011 2:28 pm

barry says:
“If the action is a matter of principle, he won’t.”
barry, you are ethically blind. Michael Mann has no principles. None. Climategate 1 & 2 prove that beyond any doubt.
And your “hemispherical MCA” is an Orwellian fantasy. The global MWP has mountains of supporting evidence showing that it was a global event. Historical revisionism began with Mann’s bogus Hokey Stick, which has been thoroughly debunked.

Steve Oregon
November 24, 2011 2:30 pm

Everywhere I have read comments about CG2 there are alarmists chanting the “context” mantra.
It’s as if they feel they can disregard all of the CG2 by pretending every email and quote is taken out of context.
Of course only they know what the correct “context”. And without their explanation CG2 is meaningless.
Hey alarmists,
We can read and the “context” in most cases is not elusive or needing anything from you. So enough already.
I’m pretty sure all of us non-alarmists grasp the notion of “context”. Just as we easily understood “weather is not climate” long before that stupid chant of yours began.
Now shut up with the “context” crap and tell us something useful.
Like where the ocean is acidic.

rbateman
November 24, 2011 2:31 pm

I might actually start believing in Santa Claus again: Whomever got ahold of 1/4 million emails from under the noses of the ‘best and brightest’ has the stuff of legedary status. NOT.
Somebody (ranking very high in the upper eschalons) took the lone lifeboat and watches, as the rest of them go down with the ship. There is a hint of who is doing this in the emails across CG Email releases. This person is in plain sight, and extremely shrewd, picking just the right blend of exchanges.

Gail Combs
November 24, 2011 2:37 pm

Lance of BC says:
November 23, 2011 at 1:03 pm
Someone has said it already, “a physicist slogan-shouting, cherry-picking, or witch-hunting”
Is John Sidles
http://en.gravatar.com/sidles
Found this out last night but the internet went down and couldn’t post it, he is not a physicist.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Actually John Sidles is a medical physicist. I wonder if he ever worked for the Clinical research organization Cetero Research.

Mark M
November 24, 2011 3:08 pm

Gail,
Thanks for your: November 24, 2011 at 2:06 pm post. I am sure the folks advising Mr. Putin, or the party leadership in China, would be interested in having someone at the UN tell them what to do in regards to development…. That “Principle 2: “National sovereignty is subject to international law . . . ;” might cause a few nations some consternation
M

ThePhysicsGuy
November 24, 2011 3:22 pm

Being a physicist myself, I can recognize one when I see one, and A Physicist simply falls way short. So let me make this simple for you.
1. Mathematics is a tool. Great mathematics cannot make bad science true. Fortunately all scientific hypotheses must be rigorously tested by the tenants of the scientific method.
2. The ONLY “evidence” of a future warming given a certain rise in atmospheric CO2 is based on global climate models. But models themselves are actually a “hypothesis”, subject to falsification, and must be tested empirically. So far the models are complete failures. They are simply too crude and do not accurately represent the non-linear and chaotic nature of the earth’s climate. But don’t take my word for that. Dr. Roger Pielke Sr., an internationally recognized climate scientist with peer reviewed published papers on the subject AND a non-skeptic will tell you the same thing. Dr. Pielke says:
“Global and regional climate models have not demonstrated skill at predicting regional and local climate change and variability on multi-decadal time scales”.
Pielke is not the only scientist coming to this conclusion. From Koutsoyiannis et al 2011
“….we tested whether the model outputs are consistent with reality (which reflects the entire variability, due to combined natural and anthropogenic effects). Our results extend Huard’s statements further. Specifically, we show that, climate models are not only unable to predict the variability of climate, but they are also unable to reproduce even the means of temperature and rainfall in the past.”
Huard 2011:
“under constant external forcing, TAR and AR4 simulations have no predictive skill whatsoever on the chronology of events beyond the annual cycle. A climate projection is thus not a prediction of climate, it is an experiment probing the model’s response to change in GHG concentrations”
“However, we think that the most important question is not whether GCMs can produce credible estimates of future climate, but whether climate is at all predictable in deterministic terms.”
So in term you can understand, A Physcist, the models suck. The alarming predictions of a future temperature increase are pure junk.
3. Mann’s hockey stick graph is pure crap. The climategate emails are just another nail in the coffin. Plus, tree ring proxies are poor indicators of historic temperatures. Mann and his ilk tried to get rid of the Medieval Warm period and Little Ice Age because they needed a crisis. But the fact is that today’s temperatures are in no way unusual by any means as other more accurate proxies have indicated (and as well as historical records have indicated)
So, in summary. We don’t have a temperature crisis, and absolutely no scientific evidence of a future warming given a rise in CO2.
So put up or shut-up, A Physicist, and take your silly math and stuff it (like a turkey).

A physicist
November 24, 2011 3:41 pm

[snip]

Another Gareth
November 24, 2011 3:55 pm

Peter Whale,
The feedback of Big Oil funding is entirely dependent on who receives it!
When Geoff Jenkins bags $1million or more for UEA the effect is positive.
When Willie Soon gets some the effect is negative.
The albedo of cash is variable depending on the location of the pocket it goes into.
From email 0277:
“Re funding: we took $1M from a bunch of oil companies (inc EXXON) via IPIECA about 10 years ago. We used it to come up with the first estimate of the second indirect cooling effect of aerosol on predictions. I have to say that at no time did we come under any even slight pressure to get us to say or omit anything in papers we wrote. Of course in Soon’s case they already knew where he stood, so I guess could be confident that he would use their money to come up with more sceptical stuff.”

1DandyTroll
November 24, 2011 4:06 pm

What’s so bonkers with all these self proclaimed climate experts is the fact that it is so little about the climate of weather and instead to use their positions of ad hoc de facto authority to pervert the free market, and, the science and research communities.
From one email to Hulme this starter network analysis can be done:
CSIRO->by post retirement CSIRO fellow->at the time IPCC author->who uses his son whom is a leading staff member at WWF OZ->Who’s coworker is a WWF staff member who is on CSIRO sector advisory committee with other industry people. Following through with the other csiro fellows this email was cc:d to and it connect to other NGO’s as well not least because they to were included by the IPCC. Coincidentally the same people did influence the emissions trading scheme in OZ.
In other emails to Hulme one finds the intricate colluding with the gelatinous brain slugs (suckling your reason away from you) from Greenpeace to, but of course, have ExxonMobil loose market shares, to the benefit of such righteous corporations such as BP and Shell–both seemingly to have come onboard the ship called “the cause” quiet early on it seems (when did they notice they were running out of oil really? to get going on supplements). Maybe it’s not such a wonder that Greenpeace, and WWF for that matter, was so quiet come the BP’s Gulf disaster, since they’ve been a boon to each other for so long and BP’s very own NGO.
It gets all very funny though when a brain slug is to support the very Prince “miller time” Phillip on trying to best the evil-because-by-bad-oil-supported people of the, apparently, too cold, Anchorage.
To say the, by tax, lavishly funded IPCC induced climatological community is a tight nit community is like saying there’s only five fingers on each hand but they both support each other.

barry
November 24, 2011 4:38 pm

Mike Jonas @ here,

I, and no doubt others here, have noted that you provided no supporting information in your comment. Present the information that supports what you say, and I (and I am sure, we) will listen.

The irony here is sharp! You have quoted only a part of my post. Allow me to repeat a bit you chose to omit from your snippeting.

Ah yes, the way of the climate skeptic. Read snippets, alert the press, but do not read the full text the snippets came from, in case the fuller context reveals the snippets to be distortions of what was actually meant…. pass on the quotes without checking the full context, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, not provide links to the full email the snippets come from

I have read a thread of x hundred posts, almost all that quoted the emails failing to provide links to the full email (easily sourced from here). In the post you commented on, I was mocking the Way of the Climate Skeptic. I am glad you have a problem with it, but somehow your criticism only applied to me, not the other x hundred comments upthread. Think about why that might be.
Each of the quotes in the article at the top of this page could easily have a link to the original appended. None do. So I had to do some searching. Now it’s my responsibility to provide links and context?
Why the hell should I bother? The faithful here will quote mine and avoid context, and post outrage on decontextualised snippets. I’m not going to try any harder than they are. I’ll just note what I observed and you and maybe others will all of a sudden develop a desire for substance and context over innuendo.
But that is how this all should have started. Asking me to suddenly ‘do the right thing’ is putting the cart before the horse.
And that is why my post had no referencing – to make the point.
If you’re genuine (which I doubt), choose the first quote at the top of this page, from the article, provide a link to the full email, and tell me how you interpret the quote within the full context. If you do that, I’ll definitely reply and do the same with the second quote. This is the only way I know how to gauge your sincerity – if you do exactly this.
The conversation could take time, but unearthing the truth – being properly skeptical – usually does.

barry
November 24, 2011 4:46 pm

Smokey,
as usual, your comments are ruined by simple errors of fact.

The global MWP has mountains of supporting evidence showing that it was a global event. Historical revisionism began with Mann’s bogus Hokey Stick

The hockey stick wasn’t about global temps, only NH. There were no global reconstructions prior to MBH99 anyway, so nothing global to revise. In the real universe, global reconstructions have only recently been attempted.

Political Junkie
November 24, 2011 4:54 pm

As posted at Lucia’s:
The only reason that Phil Jones can claim that he isn’t LITERALLY a criminal is that the statute of limitations in the U.K. for destroying evidence subject to an FOI request is SIX MONTHS.
I’m not a lawyer, but is there any other criminal act that gives you a “get out of jail” card after only six months?

David Falkner
November 24, 2011 4:57 pm

This is not an email, but this caught my eye today. Something strange is going on. Are the press beginning to see through this stuff?
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jUP3GJriAWio1vrR5pNnRsRCxedg?docId=CNG.aa7c247e63265d1dd5470037b7118e67.351

Another Ian
November 24, 2011 5:04 pm

Anthony, This might be of interest if you’ve got time to look at it

Mime data
Posted by Jeff Id on November 24, 2011
Reader Buffy Minton has done some cool work to extract file attachments with the emails. This was never done for the original climategate files to my knowledge.”
More and site at http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2011/11/24/mime-data/
Snip if already posted

Brendan
November 24, 2011 5:39 pm

Out of interest I visited skepticalscience just to see how they are dealing with the emails.
The defence is in 2 parts.
1. The emails are over 2 years old. Thats it
2. Most recently, that the comments made by the ‘hacker’ about poverty are all rubbish because their ‘science’ proves that those poor perople will be even poorer as a result of climate change so lets keep throwing billions KinG Canute style and those pesky poor countries will all be better off.
good for a chuckle.

Gail Combs
November 24, 2011 6:06 pm

Another Ian says:
November 24, 2011 at 5:04 pm
Anthony, This might be of interest if you’ve got time to look at it

Mime data
Posted by Jeff Id on November 24, 2011
Reader Buffy Minton has done some cool work to extract file attachments with the emails. This was never done for the original climategate files to my knowledge.”
More and site at http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2011/11/24/mime-data/
Snip if already posted
___________________________
Good find!
That could take care of a lot of the “Context Problem”

Markon
November 24, 2011 6:24 pm

A physicist says:
If you know the math then it is ok to hide-the-decline.

Luther Wu
November 24, 2011 6:40 pm

Especially for: barry…
Jones:
[FOI, temperature data]
Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we
get – and has to be well hidden. I’ve discussed this with the main funder (US
Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original
station data.

How’s that?

Luther Wu
November 24, 2011 6:43 pm

Barry… My post immediately above shows that the included (1577) email index # was stripped from my post. The link to the entire series of emails has been linked many times. Here it is again: http://foia2011.org/

November 24, 2011 7:53 pm

barry says:
“The hockey stick wasn’t about global temps, only NH. There were no global reconstructions prior to MBH99 anyway, so nothing global to revise. In the real universe, global reconstructions have only recently been attempted.”
barry me boy, Mann’s hokey stick has been repeatedly debunked, whether it refers to one or two hemispheres. Mann tried to erase the MWP and the LIA, and failed. Thus, his runaway global warming conjecture fails. Therefore, it follows that the entire CO2=CAGW conjecture fails.

Editor
November 24, 2011 8:02 pm

Barry – you say “Each of the quotes in the article at the top of this page could easily have a link to the original appended. None do. So I had to do some searching. Now it’s my responsibility to provide links and context? Why the hell should I bother? … If you’re genuine (which I doubt), choose the first quote at the top of this page, from the article, provide a link to the full email, and tell me how you interpret the quote within the full context.
The first quote from the article is “ Bradley: …I’m sure you agree–the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year “reconstruction”.“.
3373 is the reference to the full email in FOIA2011.zip. A link is now given in this post to a searchable version: http://foia2011.org/. At the time of the post, the files were only available via the zip so there were no links to individual files, and I don’t know whether they exist yet. People on WUWT are generally pretty good at providing links in their comments, and it is very common for anyone presenting information on either “side” to have a link or reference demanded if not supplied. People do generally want to verify information before accepting it.
Coming back to 3373: The quote doesn’t look particularly good for Mann.Jones. The full context is even worse:-
I don’t think it matters about the authorship of this…although it is true that you need 2 CRU boys to balance a Mann…
If I could add any suggestion it would be to make it clear what you mean by: “several modelling centres have run climate simulations based on models with varying levels of complexity ..”
I don’t think Mike is thinking of coupled AOGCMs here, which would be ideal, but mostly energy balance models and MICs, and it’s hard to use these to look at anything but the very largest scales. Furthermore, the model output is very much determined by the time series of forcing that is selected, and the model sensitivity which essentially scales the range. Mike only likes these because they seem to match his idea of what went on in the last millennium, whereas he would savage them if they did not.
Also–& I’m sure you agree–the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year “reconstruction”.
” [my bold]
You wanted my interpretation – it is that the Mann/Jones GRL paper was indeed truly pathetic and should never have been published, and that Mann in particular is hopelessly biasedand so far removed from proper scientific method that his colleagues have to exercise damage control.

JPeden
November 24, 2011 8:03 pm

barry says:
November 24, 2011 at 4:46 pm
There were no global reconstructions prior to MBH99 anyway, so nothing global to revise. In the real universe, global reconstructions have only recently been attempted.
barry, “global reconstructions” relying upon localized stripbarks, upside down Tiljander sediment data, and one tree in Yamal can hardly be considered attempts. Then, among the many other problems with Mann’s tree ring “reconstructions”, Mann’s data was shown by McShane and Wyner to not even correlate to its own calibration period. And I assume you might have heard of terms such as “the divergence”, “Mann’s Nature trick”, and “hide the decline”?
Once again, barry, your imagination has betrayed you concerning the alleged Hockey Stick, the real universe’s MWP, the LIA, and the previous Warm Periods. The current Warm Period is nothing new, does not require CO2 to explain it, and its temperatures diverge from CO2 concentrations both at its beginning with the end of the LIA, its current lack of warming for the last 10 – 15+ years, and in the midst of it from ~1940 – 1970, just as all of the other relevant predictions based upon CO2 = CAGW have also diverged from the real universe’s empirical data and no-difference-from-normal climate results.
No, the real universe does not heel to you imaginary Climate “Science”.

Editor
November 24, 2011 8:05 pm

Barry – the “3373” got stripped from “Bradley: …” because it was bracketed by “less than” “greater than”, but you can see it in the post itself.

Editor
November 24, 2011 8:24 pm

Barry – the searchable file doesn’t support search by file number. However, there is now a link for each individual file, eg. a link for 3373 is:
http://climategate2011.blogspot.com/2011/11/3373txt.html

November 24, 2011 8:49 pm

Some good coverage of “Climategate 2.0” here:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/23/climategate_2_first_look/
WSJ is also beginning to sound reasonable again in the post-BEST era.

November 24, 2011 9:30 pm

Barry and all those others at the universities in South Africa should know by now that they are on thin ice. I warned them. They have not done any research and therefore rely on people like Mann and other fraudsters who are known to cook the books.They do not give you any answers when you confront them with actual real research.They always hide behind the the IPCC and a “large voluminous body of scientific research” that keeps their jobs save.
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming

November 24, 2011 10:11 pm

An interesting signature line…..
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/0487.txt
‘Low Carbon Innovation Centre’ and ‘CRed’ are trading names of Low Carbon Innovation Centre
Limited, a company registered in England (no. 06525180) with its registered office at The
Registry, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ
The Carbon Connections fund is operated by Carbon Connections UK Limited, a company
registered in England (no. 05906083) with its registered office at The Registry, University
of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ
Both Low Carbon Innovation Centre Limited and Carbon Connections UK Limited are wholly
owned subsidiaries of the University of East Anglia

November 24, 2011 10:20 pm

Mike nominating Phil for a prize.
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/0727.txt
Hi Phil,
I hope things are going well these days, and that the recent round of attacks have died
down. seems like some time since I’ve heard from you.
Please see below: Gavin was wondering if there is any update in status on this?
By the way, still looking into nominating you for an AGU award, I’ve been told that the
Ewing medal wouldn’t be the right one. Let me know if you have any particular options
you’d like me to investigate…
thanks,
mike

wayne
November 24, 2011 10:35 pm

The Resiter said it well about the current climate:
“The cat’s now well and truly out of the bag.”
&
Clive Crook, a believer in the manmade global warming hypothesis and supporter of carbon reduction measures, expressed it like this:
“The closed-mindedness of these supposed men of science, their willingness to go to any lengths to defend a preconceived message, is surprising even to me. The stink of intellectual corruption is overpowering.”
Thanks you FOIA.2011, whoever you are.

Leon Brozyna
November 24, 2011 10:50 pm

Fallout from Climategate 2.0 continues …
The Hockey stick lives! At least for WUWT over at Alexa, where WUWT’s ranking jumped from an average of 16,000 to 8,000 in two days.

HR
November 24, 2011 10:55 pm

Forgive the language but a search of the emails for the word b@$(@?d comes up with some entertaining stuff.
Briffa really seems to be anti-Mann.
Ed Cook has a real distaste for skeptics

November 24, 2011 11:09 pm

The reason for Realclimate.org
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/1485.txt
Thanks Phil,
I did the the BBC piece–at least it clearly marked as an op-ed, not a news story. Did
you check w/ BBC whether they would consider publishing an opposing op-ed by some Brits
(hint!).
I’ve personally stopped responding to these, they’re going to get a few of these op-ed
pieces out here and there, but the important thing is to make sure they’re loosing the
PR battle. That’s what the site is about.
By the way, Gavin did come up w/ the name!
Will keep you posted of developments….
Talk to you later,
Mike

Note in email 1171 Mike admits that he is a part author at realclimate.org

November 24, 2011 11:23 pm

2. You can delete this attachment if you want. Keep this quiet also, but
> this is the person who is putting in FOI requests for all emails

http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/1641.txt

November 25, 2011 12:19 am

Interesting one on Mann deleting McIntyre’s posts at Realclimate
date: Mon, 28 Sep 2009 22:33:06 -0400
from: Michael Mann
subject: attacks against Keith
to: Phil Jones , Tim Osborn
Phil, Tim,
……
Meanwhile, I suspect you’ve both seen the latest attack against his Yamal work by McIntyre.
Gavin and I (having consulted also w/ Malcolm) are wondering what to make of this, and
what sort of response—if any—is necessary and appropriate. So far, we’ve simply deleted
all of the attempts by McIntyre and his minions to draw attention to this at RealClimate.

Buffy Minton
November 25, 2011 1:25 am

Weather is not climate….except when it is warm
0102.txt

cc: ‘a.ogden
date: Mon, 04 Aug 2003 07:50:31 +0000
from: “Mick Kelly”
subject: What a scorcher…
to: ‘Phil Jones’; David Viner
—-boundary-LibPST-iamunique-1881879640_-_-
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=”utf-8″
Phil and David
If we break the high temperature record this week, we really should be prepared to capitalize on this press-wise.
How about we draft a short press release? This has been a classic global warming summer circulation-wise so we can dress the story up a bit.
I’m around Thursday-Friday this week but only briefly Wednesday. Either of you in Wednesday in case it breaks then?
Mick
____________________________________________
Mick Kelly Climatic Research Unit
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ
United Kingdom

Buffy Minton
November 25, 2011 1:42 am

Great to see former UEA lecturer and research fellow using his taxpayer funded time (and email account) so well (helping to design a leaflet for Norwich Green Party)

date: Wed, 20 Jun 2001 17:03:07 +0100
from: “Rob Tinch”
subject: Re: [ngp-list] revamped leaflet
to:
(1) What’s the title for the leaflet? Shouldn’t this part go on top?
Good idea, but the front side of the leaflet (which only some of you will
have seen) says:
The Green Party
GLOBAL
WARNING
Do you want:
(please tick all that apply)
* More floods
* More storms
* etc. etc.
The US President does …
which is why the second side has to start as it does. They have adopted my
suggestions for the front side, by the way, so it will be a bit less floody
and a bit more sea level risey than the draft we’ve seen.
(2) How about “communities and individual people”? This way it sounds
like you mean “individual people and individual communities”, which is a
bit odd.
Good idea, I will make that change. Any other comments? Speak now or….
Final version goes to Greg this evening.
Cheers,
Rob

J Bowers
November 25, 2011 3:19 am
wayne
November 25, 2011 3:20 am

Buffy, thanks from all here for decoding the attatchments, sure didn’t feel like reaching that far back into the past and into mime 64 decoding anyway. ☺

November 25, 2011 3:54 am

Carbon prices in Europe are diving, as a result of Climategate 2.0:
http://ecotretas.blogspot.com/2011/11/carbon-trading-in-crash-mode.html

Gail Combs
November 25, 2011 4:23 am

barry says:
November 24, 2011 at 4:38 pm The irony here is sharp! You have quoted only a part of my post….
DUDE, The Moderators ASKED us not to repeat entire comments. we can all use the find function.
“I have read a thread of x hundred posts, almost all that quoted the emails failing to provide links to the full email…”
Again we are all capable of using a search function. We are not writing a paper for submission to a peer reviewed journal. Most people here do provide attribution or links under normal circumstances.
I do not know about anyone else but my computer is so slow, esp. on this thread I am about to drop kick it out the window. It takes over a minute to tab between screens so links are a royal pain in the rump.

November 25, 2011 4:41 am

These letters are amazing just like the last batch. However, the facts on the ground (so to speak) have been against The Cause for a long time. We don’t seem to be getting through to the public with what a waste of time this whole cAGW thing is.
I hope this batch of e-mails helps a bit

barry
November 25, 2011 5:24 am

Mike Jonas,
appreciate the reply. Here’s how I interpret the quote, given the context.
Mann is lead author on a CLIVAR paper and asks co-author Briffa for advice on the abstract. Briffa flags the a need for balance in authorship and opinion, so he goes to
Ray Bradley. Bradley offers advice on wording the project, and goes further, criticising what he sees as Michael Mann’s shortcomings, and stating that the 2003 GRL paper is terrible. Briffa’s reply implies he agrees with Bradley, and indicates that Phil Jones is aware of his opinion.
What is noteworthy about Bradley’s opinion of the 2003 GRL paper?
First of all, what happened to ‘The Team’? It always looked like an invented idea to me. Other emails show the players bickering with and about each other on the science, so I think the whole ‘Team’ thing has been a bit of a meme. Might be fodder for their detractors, but disagreements and disputes between colleagues seems like normal play to me.
Now, Bradley, a former co-author with Michael Mann (MBH98/99), is dissing one paper of Mann’s. Is this a big event? Not to my mind. Bradley could 1) wrong, 2) right. What would it mean that Mann’s 2003 GRL paper was terrible? Would that mean the rest of his work was bad? Nope – that would be appallingly illogical. Would removing that paper from the literature change the general understanding of millennial climate shifts and anomalies? No, it wouldn’t. So what’s the beef here?
The beef here, is probably that someone said something critical about Michael Mann. Wow.
Mike, I am very impressed that you have the science skillz to determine the worth or otherwise of that 2003 paper. I certainly don’t, and admire the work you must have put in, Where did you study?
I note that Bradley finds it worthwhile contributing to the CLIVAR project. I also note that Mann and Bradley collaborated quite a few times on papers post-2004. This suggests that Ray Bradley considers Michael Mann’s work something worthy of his involvement. Perhaps that 2003 paper was an anomaly (as far as Bradley is concerned).
I also note that Bradley thinks Mann is over-sure of his own take on millennial reconstructions. To me, this is healthy criticism in the field, and evidence that there are a range of views pulling at each other, rather than a group-think exercise, as it is so often described by climate change skeptics.. Others no doubt see this quote as a damning indictment. Guess it depends on your lens.
Ultimately, my lens is the science, not the personalities. If you remove Michael Mann’s paleoclimate work from the record, the story is still the same re MWP etc. This quote, then, is one opinion of one paper co-authored by Michael Mann. It is grist to the blogospheric mill that focuses on figureheads and politics, but scientifically mundane.

November 25, 2011 5:30 am

After some online discussion with the RealClimate folks over the last few days I’m starting to realize that they are suffering from the “Goodfellas” syndrome. There is a moment in that movie where Karen Hill is narrating and explaining that since the mob families spent every waking hour together it made their criminal behaviors seem normal. That is what has happened with The Team.
They honestly have no anchor to the real world and think that the behaviors on display in these emails are not just normal, but are a corner stone of science.
In short: They’ve gone bonkers.

Jack
November 25, 2011 5:35 am

Was there anyone working for “The Cause” not threatened by the scrutiny and intellect of Steve McIntyre? They abused his research, used his work behind his back and did everything possible in the public domain to prevent his analysis being given credence.
Shame n Phil Jones and the CRU, they are a disgrace to the UK.

barry
November 25, 2011 5:51 am

Mike J,
I will pick up on the second quote tomorrow. Started just now, but I’m bushed after a long day’s work. it’s 12:50am here. I’ll post in the morning (Sydney time).

Blade
November 25, 2011 5:53 am

Dennis Ray Wingo [November 24, 2011 at 10:20 pm] says:
“Mike nominating Phil for a prize.”
Hi Phil,
I hope things are going well these days, and that the recent round of attacks have died
down. seems like some time since I’ve heard from you.
Please see below: Gavin was wondering if there is any update in status on this?
By the way, still looking into nominating you for an AGU award, I’ve been told that the
Ewing medal wouldn’t be the right one. Let me know if you have any particular options
you’d like me to investigate…

thanks,
mike

This sounds like prize shopping. ‘Hmmm, let’s see, what award can we have this organization give us.’ These people are scoundrels. Apparently their parents never told them that an award means nothing if it is selected, purchased, coerced or stolen. It must be earned. This is an unholy cabal.

Dennis Ray Wingo [November 25, 2011 at 12:19 am] says:
“Interesting one on Mann deleting McIntyre’s posts at Realclimate”
Phil, Tim,
Meanwhile, I suspect you’ve both seen the latest attack against his Yamal work by McIntyre.
Gavin and I (having consulted also w/ Malcolm) are wondering what to make of this, and
what sort of response—if any—is necessary and appropriate. So far, we’ve simply deleted
all of the attempts by McIntyre and his minions to draw attention to this at RealClimate.

I don’t know about anyone else but I’m getting angrier the more of these I read. I’m positive that newcomers reading about this scam for the first time are going to be surprised and madder than hell. Mann is like a loose cancer cell in the bloodstream, infecting previously healthy organs. I’d say Gavin is moving on up the ladder from pawn to collaborator now. I haven’t looked yet, but I wonder if anyone outs him for moderating RC while on the NASA (taxpayer) clock. With a quarter million more of these emails in stasis, plus pending releases from PSU, all I can say is Happy Holidays Mike.
P.S. Congratulations to Buffy Minton just above who I believe has the honor of posting the 1000th Comment on this historic thread. Some love should also go out to AGW groupies John Sidles and Barry for helping to drive the commenting traffic up a notch as well. You’re really good at this 😉

Gail Combs
November 25, 2011 6:11 am

Dennis Ray Wingo says:
November 24, 2011 at 10:11 pm
An interesting signature line…..
“…Both Low Carbon Innovation Centre Limited and Carbon Connections UK Limited are wholly owned subsidiaries of the University of East Anglia”
_____________________
Especially interesting when you read:

US universities in Africa ‘land grab’
Institutions including Harvard and Vanderbilt reportedly use hedge funds to buy land in deals that may force farmers out
…Harvard and other major American universities are working through British hedge funds and European financial speculators to buy or lease vast areas of African farmland in deals, some of which may force many thousands of people off their land,….
The new report on land acquisitions in seven African countries suggests that Harvard, Vanderbilt and many other US colleges with large endowment funds have invested heavily in African land in the past few years. Much of the money is said to be channelled through London-based Emergent asset management, which runs one of Africa’s largest land acquisition funds, run by former JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs currency dealers…. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/08/us-universities-africa-land-grab

Well now we know why the various Universities will go to the line to protect these supposed scientists. They are going to make millions by starving out the indigenous peoples in Africa.
Americans get lambasted by the EXACT same universities because our supposed ancestors did the same to the native Americans. Thieving hypocrites….

November 25, 2011 6:46 am

Eco-nomic murder – The lineup of usual suspects:

A physicist
November 25, 2011 6:57 am

[snip]

genealogymaster
November 25, 2011 6:59 am

Does anyone think anything will happen this time?

beng
November 25, 2011 7:07 am

****
Gail Combs says:
November 25, 2011 at 4:23 am
I do not know about anyone else but my computer is so slow, esp. on this thread I am about to drop kick it out the window. It takes over a minute to tab between screens so links are a royal pain in the rump.
****
Javascript really slows down my browsing (online & offline). Try turning off javascript in your browser’s options.

November 25, 2011 7:23 am

Now thanksgiving is over, let us whish to the ‘don’t know how to plot the trend line’ Jones an early Happy Christmas, ho ho ho ho, and the aunty Bib too, ho ho!
Good old Jonzy far more partial to a ‘nice’ Christmas pud than the strange intricacies of the ‘secondary school level’ Excel ‘tricks’.

November 25, 2011 7:34 am

Gail Combs says:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/#comment-808200
I wonder what Barry (whose identity is not unknown to me) has to say about that?

G. Karst
November 25, 2011 7:45 am

beng:
Gail:
The problem is thread size, just like it is at tips and notes. It makes loading and navigating difficult and slow.
Perhaps Anthony will consider rolling this thread into a new one. 1000 comments seems to be the effective limit per thread. GK

JPeden
November 25, 2011 7:53 am

barry says:
November 25, 2011 at 5:24 am
Ultimately, my lens is the science, not the personalities. If you remove Michael Mann’s paleoclimate work from the record, the story is still the same re MWP etc.
barry, your Religious Narratives and Pronouncements are what is “mundane”. Reinterpreting everything that happens so that it is “consistent with” CO2 = CAGW leaves you with a big scientific Zero here in the real universe which real science tries to understand, a reality likewise in direct contrast to the PNAS’s and the “Prophet’s” CO2 = CAGW “tenets”.
Or do you really want to have your “meaning in life” finally transcribed, along with Mann’s and the rest, as, “He was an operative in support of the biggest pseudo-scientific scam ever perpetrated upon Humanity”?

November 25, 2011 8:05 am

Joe Ryan says:
November 25, 2011 at 5:30 am
… they are suffering from the “Goodfellas” syndrome. There is a moment in that movie where Karen Hill is narrating and explaining that since the mob families spent every waking hour together it made their criminal behaviors seem normal.

Although the movie is based on a true storey, that part of the storey is actually true in real life, as John Gotti, Jr. tells it.:

Theo Goodwin
November 25, 2011 8:31 am

Dennis Ray Wingo [November 25, 2011 at 12:19 am] says:
“Interesting one on Mann deleting McIntyre’s posts at Realclimate”
‘Phil, Tim,
Meanwhile, I suspect you’ve both seen the latest attack against his Yamal work by McIntyre.
Gavin and I (having consulted also w/ Malcolm) are wondering what to make of this, and
what sort of response—if any—is necessary and appropriate. So far, we’ve simply deleted
all of the attempts by McIntyre and his minions to draw attention to this at RealClimate.’
Well, well, well, here is Mann displaying a smoking gun and bragging to his “associates” that he is the killer. He and associates, probably including NASA employed Gavin Schmidt, are deleting posts from Steve McIntyre at RealClimate not because they contain poor science, not because they are off topic, but because they are criticisms of the Yamal reconstruction that Mann and “associates” do not know how to handle. In plain English, Mann is censoring a scientific topic, censoring scientific debate, because the very topic and the debate reflect poorly on Mann as scientist. Mann convenes his “associates” to come up with some sort of response to McIntyre. Mann’s primary concern is not to engage in possibly fruitful debate but to manage his public image. He expects that his “associates” will support his brazen and desperate cunning with regard to McIntyre’s posts. No doubt his expectation was fulfilled.

November 25, 2011 8:33 am

Henry@Barry
I’m just asking if you see what happens if you do not stick with the truth?
Poor people get exploited because of wrong choices about their land and their future supply of energy.

Jeremy
November 25, 2011 8:33 am

barry says:
November 25, 2011 at 5:24 am
Ultimately, my lens is the science, not the personalities. If you remove Michael Mann’s paleoclimate work from the record, the story is still the same re MWP etc.

And what if you remove all the stacked reviews pro-and-con that Michael Mann and the team participated in? What if you remove the forceful personalities that prevented research that disagreed with them from the equation? What if you remove the conference dis-invites, and the editor removals for going off-message? What if the team were fully open and honest with their data and methods? You say you want to ignore the personalities and focus on the science. That’s about as myopic as you can be. These men influenced what the science was ultimately saying, deliberately. They were crafting a message, and in your worldview it’s ok to ignore any influence their human nature had on the outcome and focus on the (now tainted) science. That’s exceedingly naive and you should be ashamed of yourself for suggesting that “nothing changes” if you remove what Mann and the team has done.

Tim Clark
November 25, 2011 9:13 am

“barry says:
November 25, 2011 at 5:24 am”
A skunk, a vulture, and a coyote were in the roadside ditch surrounding a large chunk of well aged roadkill. They were all lamenting the shortcomings of the available supply of carrion.
It has way too many maggots for my pallette, said the badger.
I find the odor a bit strong for my sensitive nose, sniffled the vulture.
Ok, said the coyote, if you two will watch my back, I’ll eat it.
Can you follow the analogy?

Theo Goodwin
November 25, 2011 9:45 am

Joanne Nova links to a search tool that combines Climategate I and II.
On the EcoWho site he has helpfully placed all of Climategate I and II together into a combined searchable database. It’s fast, easy to scan, it copes with tricky search requests and provides a link to the full email from the results page of the search.

Bob B
November 25, 2011 10:20 am

Mann calling others frauds:
From: “Michael E. Mann”
To: Phil Jones
Subject: Re: See the attached
Date: Wed, 17 Jan 2007 11:17:58 -0500
Reply-to: ???@psu.edu
Phil,
I’ve seen this junk already. Look at the co-authors! DeFrietas, Bob
Carter: a couple of frauds. I dont’ think anyone will take this seriously…
Do you have any advance knowledge you could pass along that would help
us gear up to do something on RealClimate? I assume that there will be
no surprises in the paleoclimate chapter, but I haven’t seen the final
draft. Any hints you can drop would be great…
thanks,
mike

November 25, 2011 10:43 am

The story made it into Forbes (and Drudge:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/11/23/climategate-2-0-new-e-mails-rock-the-global-warming-debate/
“Emails between Climategate scientists, however, show a concerted effort to hide rather than disseminate underlying evidence and procedures.
“I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI [Freedom of Information] Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process,”writes Phil Jones, a scientist working with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in a newly released email.”

Joe
November 25, 2011 10:48 am

It has just occurred to me as I dig through these emails, particularly the venomous, and often paranoid rantings of Michael Mann, that progressivism is the common “cause” to this group of pseudoscientists. The Utopia of a global, green, government controlled energy industry is where they want to go, by any means necessary.
Many of them, as I see the deterioration over time, got into this line of research with the best of intentions, though having intentions really doomed them from the start. But as the giant eat beast that is government found room to grow in the energy industry, so too did it reward those who helped it grow.
What “Global Warming” provided progressivism is the one thing that it has lacked since eugenics fell out of favor (a progressive catastrophe that forced the movement to rebrand itself “liberal” in the 1930s… a move that prompted actual liberals to rebrand themselves “libertarian”). What global warming provided progressivism can only be described as a Unified Theory of Western Depravity. In this new theory we get the postulate that all evil of the Western World flows from it’s consumption of oil and the economic system that exploits it.
Under their theory we find that only big dictatorial governments can save us from such a menace. The bigger the better. This is how we get people like Hansen bemoaning the slow crawl of the US green sector and wishing openly that the US government were more like the Chinese government who doesn’t have to deal with things like personal liberty when it sets out to change the course of it’s economy.

crosspatch
November 25, 2011 10:49 am

The MIME attachments for both the 2009 and 2011 FOIA emails are available in links in this thread (2009 download link in the comments)
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2011/11/24/mime-data/

Theo Goodwin
November 25, 2011 10:59 am

barry says:
November 25, 2011 at 5:24 am
“Ultimately, my lens is the science, not the personalities. If you remove Michael Mann’s paleoclimate work from the record, the story is still the same re MWP etc.”
This is a blatant falsehood. Remove the Hockey Stick and there is no basis whatsoever for the claim that late 20 century warming is out of the ordinary.

Theo Goodwin
November 25, 2011 11:10 am

Gail Combs says:
November 25, 2011 at 6:11 am
Your post is very important. I hope that you and Mr. Wingo pursue this topic at WUWT.

November 25, 2011 11:30 am

I little handfull quotes, from mail 2160-2260, enjoy!
******************************************************
Generally there appears to be quite som disagreement in the little AGW inner crowd.
Here Mann looks forward to meet with Briffa, Crowley and one more to try to find some agreement on all the disputes:
“My guess is that anything that the 4 of us all can find consensus on, is
probably a good reflection of what the consensus is within the leaders
in this field, and you could certaintly use that as ammunition in your
deliberations with Peck and Susan…”
How is that for a “scientific consensus” ?
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/1593.txt
******************************
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2166.txt
In 2001 they are talking about who to hire…
John Shepperd to Mike Hulme and Brian launder
“Like Brian I would be less nervous if it were someone from the “fraternity”, too, but
it would all depend on who it was…

Ha! “The Fraternity”
*************************
Anyone remember the “Harry” document from climate gate I?
Anyways, I think its clear that this “Harry” Is Ian Harris talking about the document here:
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2169.txt
(Maybe all nows already ..)
****************************
Heres a little “defeat” for the hard core GW group:
They have rejected some sceptic papers in peer review, and then (darn!) a paper is published anyway.
Then they decide that this “De Freitas” is doing things wrong.
“Inner revision” has then checked out things about how De Freitas has handled things, and they conclude:
>> Conclusions:
>>
>> 1) The reviewers consulted (4 for each ms) by the editor presented
>> detailed, critical and helpful evaluations
>>
>> 2) The editor properly analyzed the evaluations and requested
>> appropriate revisions.
>>
>> 3) The authors revised their manuscripts accordingly.
>>
>> Summary:
>>
>> Chris de Freitas has done a good and correct job as editor.
>>
>> Best wishes,
>> Otto Kinne
>> Director, Inter-Research
ARGH! ICE COLD thumbs down to the GW Hard core crowd.
And then Tom Wigley (old Head of CRU) goes on

Thanx — but not quite the end.

Cant take defeat?
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2185.txt
****************************************************
Phil Jones did the most incompetent attempt to analyse UHI. He used London…
This in incompetent because London was a great multi million city already in year 1900, and at the same time, the whole south central England is one big UHI zone of increasing urbanization.
Therefore there is hardly any genuine rural station near London to evaluate if London has UHI. A sick approach to use London, hardly a coincidence that he chose London.
Jones DICTATES to Jenkins from MetOffice:

Make sure you’re not saying anything to contradict this in the urban annex
of your report.

Jones certainly dont want ANY other views than comes from his London (crap) writing.
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2197.txt
*************************************************
CRU lost data when they moved… right?
But:

You have
> several things wrong in the email you sent to Dave. CRU has lost no
> data – if you cannot accept that then there is no point in talking to
> you. If you are going to believe what is on blog sites then again there
> is no point talking to you.


http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2214.txt
*****************************************************
Phil Jones:
“Warming since 1975 to 2008 is slightly more than 1915-44.”
Sounds like a natural disaster driven by the outlet of CO2 after WW2 ?
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2234.txt
*****************************************************
Im not sure exactly what the point is here, but it does sound a little ..

The sondes clearly show too much cooling in the stratosphere (when compared to MSU4), and I reckon this must also affect their upper troposphere trends as well. So, John may be putting
too much faith in them wrt agreement with UAH.
Happy for you to use the figure, if you don’t pass on to anyone else.
Watch out for Science though and the Mears/Wentz paper if it ever comes out.

http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2252.txt
And John Christy to Phil Jones:
“I’m a little nervous now that you may have a “dog in this fight” as we say in Alabama while writing up the IPCC.”
My English is not good enough to understand it…
**************************************************
Phil Jones massaging journalistts and magasines not to puplish sceptic papers:

Just heard that New Scientist will not be running a piece on McIntyre/McKittrick. NS
have finally been convinced the two Mc’s have an agenda and that no-one can reproduce their
work !
Also been trying to put a few people right about the von Storch et al paper. Hans
sent an email around to a few of us saying the paper looks at methodological issues re MBH98/99 but that their model run isn’t an alternate history of the past. When talking to the media he doesn’t make this clear at all – let’s the journalists think it is an alternate.

http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2257.txt
**************************************************
K.R. Frank Lansner

A physicist
November 25, 2011 11:32 am

[snip]

crosspatch
November 25, 2011 11:51 am

Americans get lambasted by the EXACT same universities because our supposed ancestors did the same to the native Americans. Thieving hypocrites….

This is exactly the point I was attempting to make last night in a different thread when I said that these people had themselves become what they would hate most and how they are today doing the same things that had been done in previous times under different pretexts and that maybe it is now time for a new “Fletcher Memorial Home” to use a Pink Floyd song as a reference. It is despicable the extent to which they are manipulating policy and opinion and creating a global fear of climate change as the enabling mechanism for that manipulation. They create a boogieman and then assure you that they have the cure for it if you will only buy in to their policy decisions and if you don’t, the result will be eternal damnation of humanity to burn in the hell that the world would become as a result.
The global coordination in all of this is amazing. That they are allowed to get away with it is even more amazing. I sincerely hope that we never stop shedding light on how these people have perverted the public trust. It is trickery. And worst of all, they possibly believe in all sincerity that they are doing all of this “for your own good”. They believe we are stupid and they are the enemy of individual liberty. They get away with it only as long as their plans never see the light of day to the “outside” world and they are assisted in their mission by media whose members share their goals. It is a sort of meta-government making global policy and using a fear of climate disaster as their mechanism for getting the people to fall in line.
So completely sick.

john
November 25, 2011 12:14 pm

<>
date: Tue Jan 15 12:45:58 2008
from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: Fwd: Re: Fwd: FYI: Daggers Are Drawn
to: Jean Jouzel
Jean,
There are lots of other poor papers appearing at the moment. Susan is encouraging
us all to write responses to them. I’m trying to do one, Ben Santer another and
maybe David Parker a third. All are wrong, but it just takes time to put something
useful together.
Why can’t people just accept that the IPCC is right!! In Britain we have people saying
that the evidence is accepted – we’ve won the war, now let’s act!
I’ll see if I can persuade someone to follow up on the Science editorial.
I did talk to the journalist, mostly trying to persuade him not to run with the
story.
Cheers
Phil
@Gail Combs,
Here is something that Zero Hedge did on the africa land grab.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/african-land-grab-acres-bottle-scotch

Alix James
November 25, 2011 12:30 pm

Not sure where to put this one, it relates to sites:
#3003
http://dump.kurthbemis.com/climategate2/FOIA/mail/3003.txt
“from: Thomas C Peterson
subject: Re: WWR Volumes for the 1990s
to: Phil Jones
When I talked to the NWS, they said that the CIO of NOAA decided it would violate privacy laws if they allowed the name and address of observers be made public & the same is true of photos of the station if it showed any of the observer’s house or a well-known landmark. ‘Tis rough when we’re attacked for following the law.
One Congressman has requested information about USHCN that sounds straight out of CA. He requested copies of paper metadata. Our calculation is that this would be a total of 65,000 pages of information (all of which requires us to black out the observer’s personal information prior to providing it).”

November 25, 2011 12:56 pm

Conspiracy to commit fraud is never pretty.
Collusion and professional malfeasance are not respectable work habits.
A bar needs to be established and then quite a few people drawn up before it.

Alix James
November 25, 2011 1:09 pm

And final one before I head out the enjoy the unseasonal November:
#3579
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=3579
“Dear Phil,
We’re always on holiday here in Jersey!
Since the letter was to me, I have decided, with the concurrence of others at AGU, to ignore it and not reply.
You, Mike Mann, and Ben Santer should form a club.
Alan Robock, Professor II
Director, Meteorology Undergraduate Program
Associate Director, Center for Environmental Prediction
Department of Environmental Sciences”
The irony, it stings!

November 25, 2011 1:31 pm

http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/5090.txt
date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 13:48:11 -0500
from: Peczkis Jan
subject: Re: [ITRDBFOR] How to intimidate scientists
to: ITRDBFOR@LISTSERV.ARIZONA.EDU
I object to the use of this forum to promote global warming as fact.
This forum should deal directly with tree rings and nothing else.
As for politics, it works both ways. Yes, there are those who would
like global warming to be false so that they would not have to change
their ways or spend the money to make corrections. But don’t forget
that there are also those who have used environmental concerns to mask
their antipathy towards free enterprise. They would like nothing more
than to use such things as the threat of global warming to increase
their socialistic governmental power over American society in general
and American free enterprise in particular.
Jan Peczkis

Editor
November 25, 2011 1:49 pm

barry – in your long Nov 25 5:24am comment you talked a lot about ‘the team’ when I hadn’t even mentioned it, and you talk about how its members’ opinions are not important (only when it suits?), and you seem to do a lot of beating around the bush and avoiding of issues, but maybe your key statement is this: “Bradley thinks Mann is over-sure of his own take on millennial reconstructions. To me, this is healthy criticism in the field, and evidence that there are a range of views pulling at each other, rather than a group-think exercise, as it is so often described by climate change skeptics.“.
No, Bradley does not think Mann is “over-sure”, he thinks Mann is hopelessly biased. “Mike only likes these because they seem to match his idea of what went on in the last millennium, whereas he would savage them if they did not.” and that his work is shoddy “the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year “reconstruction”“. Note the quotes around “reconstruction” – he clearly does not think it was a proper reconstruction.
In this, we are looking at just one email among many. Those emails were not written to or for us, so we can’t expect them to answer all our questions. What they can do for us, however, is to help build up a picture of the field of climate science as it really exists behind the facade. When you say “there are a range of views pulling at each other” you are correct, but a very solid public facade has been constructed which serves to hide this aspect, and only the Climategatex emails allow us to glimpse behind it. A ‘range of views’ is healthy, the facade is not. But the real take-home from this email is that Michael Mann is thought by his colleague to be alarmingly biased, and that his work is shoddy. Start adding in some of the other emails, and as the picture builds up it gets less and less pretty the further you delve.
You ask “Where did you study?“. I would prefer to stick to the issue. Where I studied is not exactly relevant, any more than your name is.

November 25, 2011 1:53 pm

“TheGoodLocust says:
November 24, 2011 at 10:34 am
I’m not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but wouldn’t it be logical to have the password protected file contain further password protected archives?
This would allow FOIA to release bite-sized chunks over a longer period of time.”
Of course. My immediate conclusion on reading how the archive was set up. Makes total sense, and keeps us waiting for more.

November 25, 2011 1:57 pm

I have been searching the emails for New Zealand related content, and just posted this on my site.
http://newzealandclimatechange.wordpress.com/2011/11/26/climategatte-2-salinger-puts-the-boot-into-de-freitas/
The email is from Jim Salinger, who was a ‘scientist’ at NIWA, the organisation that created a junk science temperature record for New Zealand. In the email, he proposes that journal editors write to the dean of University of Auckland with a clear intention to try to get a skeptic, de Freitas, sacked from the university. In another email, Michael Mann approves of the action……
Shocking stuff!

Dave Springer
November 25, 2011 2:16 pm

G. Karst says:
November 25, 2011 at 7:45 am
beng:
Gail:
The problem is thread size, just like it is at tips and notes. It makes loading and navigating difficult and slow.
Perhaps Anthony will consider rolling this thread into a new one. 1000 comments seems to be the effective limit per thread. GK
——————————–
Typing in the reply box is getting pretty slow… but reading the thread isn’t.

November 25, 2011 2:40 pm

Another Hide The Decline?
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/0018.txt
>>P.S. Ricardo, here is the Oroko temperature reconstruction.
>>
>>JANUARY-MARCH TEMPERATURES RECONSTRUCTED FROM
>>OROKO SWAMP, NEW ZEALAND SILVER PINE TREE RINGS
>>BE ADVISED THAT THE DATA AFTER 1958 ARE INSTRUMENTAL
>>TEMPERATURES

Clive
November 25, 2011 3:12 pm

And this gang of lying, perverted climate thugs (at least one of them) has the gall to sue Tim Ball?! Seems as though Penn State fosters disgusting behavior by immoral low lifes like Mann.

Green Sand
November 25, 2011 3:34 pm

I think the “passphrase” is something along the lines of:-
“you’ve got to ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?” Well do ya, punk?”

November 25, 2011 3:54 pm

Something odd here. I posted a link to the following earlier today, and it has disappeared:
I have been searching the emails for New Zealand related content, and just posted this on my site.
http://newzealandclimatechange.wordpress.com/2011/11/26/climategatte-2-salinger-puts-the-boot-into-de-freitas/
The email is from Jim Salinger, who was a ‘scientist’ at NIWA, the organisation that created a junk science temperature record for New Zealand. In the email, he proposes that journal editors write to the dean of University of Auckland with a clear intention to try to get a skeptic, de Freitas, sacked from the university. In another email, Michael Mann approves of the action……most interestingly the head of the IPCC is copied in on the emails of the hatchet job.
Shocking stuff!

November 25, 2011 5:17 pm

The best search term I’ve come up with: “confidence”
(2535)
“Can we treat Holland’s follow-up letter as a separate request? As
Phil mentioned, Caspar Ammann can be rather slow at replying, so we
haven’t yet heard whether any emails that he sent us were sent in
confidence on his part. Can we respond to the initial FOI request,
and leave the follow-up till we hear back from Ammann?”
(4272)
“Hi Phil:
Sorry to hear this, but as you mention, it is no surprise. I’ve been
purposefully demure in my comments about MM. In complete confidence
(please share with no one), I will now mention that they formally
petitioned NCAR and its parent organization UCAR to have them force
Caspar and me to alter the Wahl-Ammann paper in fall 2005, based on a
series of charges related in spirit to those you mention below . They
also made complaint at this time about some comments Kevin Trenberth had
made. There was an implied threat of legal action to UCAR.”
(2624)
” I just contacted the editor, Glenn McGregor, to see what he can do. He promises to do
everything he can to achieve a quick turn-around time (he didn’t quantify this) and he
will also “ask (the publishers) for priority in terms of getting the paper online asap
after the authors have received proofs”. He genuinely seems keen to correct the
scientific record as quickly as possible.
He also said (and please treat this in confidence, which is why I emailed to you and
Phil only) that he may be able to hold back the hardcopy (i.e. the print/paper version)
appearance of Douglass et al., possibly so that any accepted Santer et al. comment could
appear alongside it. Presumably depends on speed of the review process.”
Crazy stuff!

Bob
November 25, 2011 5:23 pm

barry says:
November 24, 2011 at 2:11 pm
“More Soylent Green
So, will Mann stop his legal action to halt the release of his emails now?
If the action is a matter of principle, he won’t.”
That’s funny!
The principle in play is access to public documents. Mann does not own the emails. Since they were done for a public agency using public money for another public agency, the public owns the research, the data, and all relevant communications and documents. Whether the emails were produced on a public agency system, or in Mann’s private email system, the issue is that public funds were used in the production of those emails. Therefore, the public owns them.

ROM
November 25, 2011 5:34 pm

1000 plus thread comments and counting so i doubt anybody will read this!
CG1 was greeted with surprise, disbelief and bemusement mixed with some anger that the top climate scientists could stoop so low and be seen to be so vengeful and even incompetent but the anger was muted as we all hoped for a change of heart by those who were the architects of the whole Great Global Warming Scam.
CG2 is confirming in an even more definite way what CG1 first revealed but CG2, as bloggers delve ever deeper into the mails, has and is triggering a rapidly rising tide of anger and contempt right across the blog world for “climate warming science”, “climate warming scientists” and the institutions that house them and signs of that anger and contempt are even now starting to appear in some of the media as well.,
The full repercussions for climate science may not appear for quite a long time but a solid foundation for an eventual savage public backlash and reprisals against the perpetrators of this fraudulent scam are now being set firmly in place.

crosspatch
November 25, 2011 5:46 pm

How many emails mention people like Jones, Briffa, Mann either about to leave to go someplace or having just returned? It seems to me that many of these emails mention such trips. They would seem to be paid for from grants by various governments. I would imagine they would rack up quite a bill with just all the travel involved to far off places in the world.

1DandyTroll
November 25, 2011 6:00 pm

Essentially, they’re a bunch of eco loons as in eco-terrorists and eco-talibans as in economical terrorists and economical talibans.
The amount of financial cost them gelatinous communists have cost, and keep costing, society is astounding. And still they do not deliver!

November 25, 2011 6:04 pm

Time to scrap the light bulb ban and carbon tax at last?

JMAnon
November 25, 2011 6:38 pm

I forget what else I said at the original climategate, but I expected another tranche of data to be released, I hadn’t anticipated it would take so long.
The original data was proven true and hence should have been discoverable on the CRU servers and elsewhere.
But let’s look at it logically, from the perspective of the scientists (sorry, I know they don’t qualify any longer for the term but what else to call them? Jones et al? )
The options were:
(a) that whoever leaked the emails leaked all they had .
(b) that they had access to everything and have held back some material.
So what are the possible outcomes?
The files are verified and there is a searching official enquiry in which case they’d better be able to find the released data on the server or they’d be legitimately accused of an attempted cover up.
A searching enquiry accesses everything and even more damning and compelling evidence is revealed.
But if it is option (a) that is true then it is safe to sanitise everything not revealed and try and ride out what was leaked.
If it is option (b) they are sunk whatever happens because a later reveal will not be so readily brushed under the carpet.
Of course, if they can persuade everyone that it is option (a) and that they can survive that, then they have a chance of arranging a cover-up/whitewash in which case it doesn’t matter what is on the server, no one will see it who isn’t safe to see it. But the chances of a whitewash may be less if the politicos think there is more to come.
My bet is that the only winning strategy is to assume (a) and sanitise the files.
I would dearly love to know what is and what isn’t still on the servers.
Of course, releasing all at once and having the servers completely sanitised and hoping to deny everything would be a risk.
Holding back material means that even if the files are sanitised, there is less pressure to show the new release is genuine. The provenance comes from the first release admitted genuine.
So my bet is they’d look at what was released and make sure nothing else was discoverable if anyone wanted a legitimate look at their files. Anticipating that they’d have to leave the released emails on file because removing them, once revealed as authentic, would reveal tampering with the records, but removing other emails is a risk judgement; you either leave them and risk having them disclosed by any legitimate or official and unavoidable investigation or you assume that whoever leaked the emails leaked everything they had for maximum impact.
The risk they had was that anything else even if only privately investigated would deter a whitewash as too risky. So sanitise, show the sanitised servers and get a whitewash.
At this stage however, sanitised files will shriek “crooks” and “Cover-up” to everyone and not simply “honest” mistakes.
Please someone, let us know if these files are all still on the servers as they should be.

MarcH
November 25, 2011 6:44 pm

date: Fri, 8 Oct 1999 22:57:48 +0200
from: Wolfgang Cramer
subject: Re: apologies
to: Mike Hulme
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/0015.txt
PS: I am really uncertain whether I do something terribly bad in
sending this to you, after the explicit request for confidentiality –
so please keep this among the two of us…

November 25, 2011 6:47 pm

(4483)
“I will hold back the
print version of the douglas et al paper until I have the santer et al one”

MarcH
November 25, 2011 6:49 pm

subject: FOI/EIR requests – Strategy
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/0490.txt

barry
November 25, 2011 6:52 pm

Mike Jonas,

By the way, when is Tom C going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year reconstruction??? It would help the cause to be able to refer to that reconstruction as confirming Mann and Jones, etc.

This is the second quote in the list in the article, written by Michael Mann to Phil Jones. Here is a link to the email exchange
http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=3065
I think the climate change skeptical reading of this would be that the ’cause’ refers to 1) a deliberate effort on the part of Mann and Jones (at least) to keep their view of millennial reconstructions primary by political means, 2) a broader agenda to do with policy on CO2 regulation.
I note that Mann and Jones in this exchange make clear that they genuinely see McIntyre’s efforts as ‘baseless’ and that he has got ‘even the most basic facts wrong’. From reading other emails, Mann clearly thinks McIntyre’s analyses are utterly substandard, and that his repeated insistence for data and attempts are politically motivated, rather than scientifically based (indeed, McIntyre himself has described his original motivation on those grounds). The same view is held of the Legates paper they both mention.
The context to me looks like two scientists exasperated with politically motivated, substandard attacks on their work. The reference to the Tom C reconstruction comes in the middle of this, in the hope that it will bolster their own work. The ’cause’ can be seen as the defense of god science against pseudo-science attacks.
But I don’t know which is true, or indeed if there is another interpretation that is closer to the truth. I’d be extremely dubious of any comment other than from Mann or Jones that purports to know exactly in what way ’cause’ is meant here.
And that’s the difficulty with interpreting private emails amongst familiars – there are subtler shades of meaning than can be gleaned by people unfamiliar with what’s going on.

barry
November 25, 2011 6:55 pm

Theo @ here says

Remove the Hockey Stick and there is no basis whatsoever for the claim that late 20 century warming is out of the ordinary.

No basis whatsoever?
MBH 99, the hockey stick paper, concluded that late 20th century warming was anomalous, and that 1990s were likely,/i> the warmest in the last millennium – in the Northern Hemisphere. Let’s compare that with non-Mannian papers.

Using our model, we calculate that there is a 36% posterior probability that 1998 was the warmest year over the past thousand. If we consider rolling decades, 1997-2006 is the
warmest on record; our model gives an 80% chance that it was the warmest in the past thousand years. Finally, if we look at rolling thirty-year blocks, the posterior probability that the last thirty years (again, the warmest on record) were the warmest over the past thousand is 38%.

McShane and Wyner (2010)

The IPCC2001 conclusion that temperatures of the past millennium are unlikely to have been as warm, at any time prior to the 20th century, as the last decades of the 20th century is supported by subsequent research and by the results obtained here. We have also reviewed and, in some cases, tested with new analysis, papers (in particular Soon and Baliunas, 2003, MM2003 and MM2005b) which claim to refute that IPCC2001 conclusion and found that those claims were not well supported. The IPCC 2007 conclusion that “It is very likely that average NH temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were warmer than any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the warmest in at least the past 1300 years” (Solomon et al., 2007) is also supported by our analysis.

Juckes et al (2007)

During the late 20th century, our proxy-inferred summer temperatures were the warmest of the past two millennia, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.

Kaufman et al (2009) [Based on Arctic summertime temperatures]

Taken at face value, our reconstruction indicates that MWP conditions were nearly 0.7C cooler than those of the late twentieth century. These results suggest how extreme recent warming has been relative to the natural fluctuations of the past millennium. This conclusion, however, must be taken cautiously.

D’Arrigo et al (2006)

We find no evidence for any earlier periods in the last two millennia with warmer conditions than the post-1990 period – in agreement with previous similar studies

Moberg (2005)
<blockquote….the evidence from dendrochronology in general supports the notion that the last 100 years have been unusually warm, at least within a context of the last two millennia. However, this evidence should not be considered equivocal [sic] Briffa (2000) [Should say, ‘unequivocal,’ obviously]

The reconstructions show the temperatures of the mid-Holocene warm period some 1–2 K above the reference level, the maximum of the MWP at or slightly below the reference level, the minimum of the LIA about 1 K below the reference level, and end-of-20th century temperatures about 0.5 K above the reference level. All of these amplitude estimates are, as with the timing of these episodes, generally consistent with amplitudes estimated from other climate proxies as summarized by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [2007].

Huang et al (2008)
I left out any paper that had Mann as co-author. There are a couple of papers in the peer-reviewed literature that suggest warmer MWP than present, but the majority of studies that look at the issue come up with pretty much the same conclusions as Mann – NH temperatures in the last few decades are
likelythe warmest in the last 1000 to 2000 years.

TheGoodLocust
November 25, 2011 6:57 pm

http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=4440.txt
The Senior Adviser of Climate Change at BP and Penn State’s Lee Kump seem to be suggesting that they not mention any potential benefits of increased CO2 in the “Tyndall/CMI Symposium Summary.” Of course, more expensive coal should be good for BP’s oil business – and all their “renewable” tech that they love advertising so much.
Oh this one is somewhat interesting and amusing:
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=0149.txt
It looks like Phil Jones is helping some nut at “Friends of the Earth” with his article.
I liked this part a lot:
“There may be a negative feedback which will prevent global temperatures rising above the
present level for the foreseeable future as the climate sceptics argue. The science from
climatic research units, which is the best available science, and the IPCC, suggests that
this is only an extremely remote possibility.
The second more likely scenario is that global temperatures will start rising significantly
again in the next year or two …”
Well, that article was written in 2007 – I’d say your year or two is up.
Here is another one of his articles after Phil modified it for “accuracy:”
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=2253.txt
Any of those 2004 predictions coming true?
Indeed the collaboration between the University of East Anglia and FOE seems both long and cozy:
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=1395
And does anyone know what WS or WS2 refers to?
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=1034.txt

November 25, 2011 7:47 pm

barry, when you quote dubious statements like: “During the late 20th century, our proxy-inferred summer temperatures were the warmest of the past two millennia, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000,” you are only exposing the grant trolling of various self-serving money grubbers.
The late, great John Daly showed that tree ring proxies were scientifically analogous to astrology.
Before the alarmist crowd’s devious revisionist history, it was universally accepted that the MWP was as warm, and most probably warmer than now. And prior warmings during the Holocene were significantly warmer than the MWP. Peer reviewed charts on request. Just ask, and I’ll post as many as necessary. Cognitive dissonance is very hard to overcome, but for you I’ll give it my best shot.

Editor
November 25, 2011 7:57 pm

1060 comments (up from an even 1000 at the start of the day). I didn’t count the number of comments that involve “A Physicist”.
That makes this about to be the 3rd most commented upon post:
mysql> select comments, url from post where comments >= 1000 order by comments desc;
+———-+—————————————————————————————————————————–+
| comments | url |
+———-+—————————————————————————————————————————–+
| 1616 | http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/19/breaking-news-story-hadley-cru-has-apparently-been-hacked-hundreds-of-files-released/ |
| 1225 | http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/30/breaking-new-paper-makes-a-hockey-sticky-wicket-of-mann-et-al-99/ |
| 1061 | http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/19/obama-returns-from-the-copenhagen-global-warming-conference/ |
| 1000 | http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/ |
+———-+—————————————————————————————————————————–+

G. Karst
November 25, 2011 8:01 pm

I know it’s been said but this guy\gal is a frigging genius! Totally in control. The team will be getting fitful, medicated sleep, until this is excruciatingly over. The rest of us are like kids on candy counter glass. We can see the candy, but we can not unwrap it. GK

R.S.Brown
November 25, 2011 8:08 pm

This may be unremarkable, but I’ve never seen a comment on the handy
size of both FOIA.org’s standard e-mail files for Climategate 1.0 & 2.0.
Not including attachments, data, programs and the Harry-read-me file, each
release fits snuggly onto a standard CD-R disk when you download and
“burn” them.
It looks like all the releases, including that whopping 7zip file could be held in
two or three 16 gig memory drives waltzing around in a shirt pocket or a purse.
Easy to copy from one drive to another… and transport across borders
without leaving an electronic trace.
No wonder Mike Mann is worried about another set of e-mails (possibly chock
full of “for American eyes-only comments) jumping out of the servers at the
University of Virginia and into the court room.
These e-mails are becoming a part of the historical record in tandem with all
those “papers” he’s written that are good for bird cage liners.

barry
November 25, 2011 8:21 pm

Mike,
<blockquote.barry – in your long Nov 25 5:24am comment you talked a lot about ‘the team’ when I hadn’t even mentioned it
Is that a problem? I invited us both to review the fuller text and context. I didn’t suppose that required me to limit my comments solely to whatever you focussed on. Would you prefer me to do that? Let me know.
You interpreted Bradley’s comments to say that Mann was ‘hopelessly biased’ because Mann would automatically criticise anything that didn’t go along with his view. I don’t see much daylight between your interpretation and mine (‘over-sure of his own take’), except that your phraseology has the buzzword ‘bias’ in it. Aren’t we both (and Bradley) saying that Mann is overly ‘biased’ towards his own view? But your language is less neutral and more political than mine, considering the wider debate (more context). An objective reading of the emails should avoid such rhetoric, don’t you agree?
Further to the use of ‘bias’: I asked about your credentials (not your identity – that is not important to the discussion). That was a passing thought and a compliment, but it may as well serve to illustrate my point. You stated that the “Mann/Jones GRL paper was indeed truly pathetic and should never have been published.” If you have requisite skill to determine this at a granular level, then I am impressed. But if you do not quite have the skill to determine this, then I would suggest that your unequivocal opinion might more reasonably be described as ‘biased’ than Michael Mann’s. In such a case,the term would be appropriate.

In this, we are looking at just one email among many. Those emails were not written to or for us, so we can’t expect them to answer all our questions. What they can do for us, however, is to help build up a picture of the field of climate science as it really exists behind the facade

I think it’s possible a neutral reader could gain some insight into the private world of the people in the emails. Such a ‘picture of the field’, however, would necessarily be highly caveated, for the reasons you outlined in your first few words there.
However, the false “picture” of the 2009 release demonstrated just how malign ‘interpretation’ distorted the actual meaning behind many quoted excerpts back then. Even to this day some well-explained snippets still have traction. “Mike’s nature trick”, “hide the decline”, and the harryreadme.txt, are still cited as evidence of something insidious in the paleoclimate field.
Ultimately, the release of the emails is a political act, and have zero bearing on the understanding of GHGs and the warming of the atmosphere. It’s a side issue of political, not scientific, import, and taking it very seriously is a sign of political, not scientific, interest in the general subject.
Eg, one always hears of “Mann’s” hockey stick. It’s rare amongst skeptics that the other authors are mentioned (Bradley, Hughes), or that other groups using different methods and even different data come up with similar general conclusions as MBH98/99. No, this is a game of politics, and that requires a single identity to defame. Mann is the guy.
Notice, when in the past Bradley has been mentioned by skeptics, it has been to discredit him. Now that an email surfaces showing his criticism of one paper of Mann’s, suddenly his views have merit?
I hope you’ll forgive my skepticism that a reliable “picture of the field of climate science” will be constructed here!

but a very solid public facade has been constructed which serves to hide this aspect [a range of views pulling at each other], and only the Climategatex emails allow us to glimpse behind it

If you read the literature, you can see various authors who have co-authored with Mann, also criticise components of Mann’s work. The inability to see nuance in this field and differences between colleagues is the desire for a binary “picture” that simplifies the narrative to such a point that false claims can be made about “Team”, and then, when apparent fractures appear, revelations of goings on behind the “facade”. But as far as I can see, this is a construct of the skeptical propaganda machine, an unconscious engine for the most part.
But, you can educate me better. Where has it been given out that Mann, Bradley, Briffa, Hughes, Jones, etc agree with each other about everything in paleoclimate? Where is it writ that Raymond Bradley thinks all of Mann’s work is exemplary, so that this new revelation shows that notion to be a lie?
I’ll attend your corroboration that there is a facade belying “a range of views pulling at each other” in the paleoclimate field.

November 25, 2011 10:09 pm

Barry says
in the Northern Hemisphere. Let’s compare that……..
Henry@Barry
this must be a dilemma for you.
My statistical analyses of 9 NH weather stations gave an average increase of 0.029 degreesC / annum since 1975.
My statistical analyses of 10 SH weather stations gave an average of 0.000 degreesC / annum since 1975, in other words: no change.
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
The problem is we cannot arbitrarily cut the earth in the middle.
We need to find a mechanism that would explain the difference.
Do you agree with me that the increase in the CO2 cannot be it?

November 25, 2011 10:11 pm

Commenter “A physicist” is whistling, very loudly, past the cemetery.

JPeden
November 25, 2011 10:29 pm

barry says:
November 25, 2011 at 8:21 pm
Where has it been given out that Mann, Bradley, Briffa, Hughes, Jones, etc agree with each other about everything in paleoclimate?
They all use “climate change” to mean “CO2 = CAGW” and, hence, that there has been no climate change and can never be any climate change without CO2 = CAGW. Therefore, they all agree with all of what this absurd idea means about paleoclimate.
You’re the same, barry, with the same very disordered “unconscious engine”.
So I suppose you can’t do anything about it?

John
November 25, 2011 10:46 pm

Question: What’s the difference between “Free Speech” and “Fraud”.
Hint: It involves money.
In this story a number of people desperately need to go to jail for fraud. Prof. Mann, Al Gore and some key figures at the CRU are clearly in this crowd. …and we all know it is a large crowd. The real question now is why has no one even been charged? Like tracking terrorists, to get at that answer only requires following the money, much of which was given to politically connected “green” start up companies which are now in or approaching Chapter 11. The AGW/Climate Change propaganda was bought and paid for by tax payer money to justify billions in government grants, loans and special legislation. All those involved know the story and to a man need several years of reclamation in prison. I encourage everyone to work toward this goal in the weeks and months head. I suspect we’ll be seeing even more damning evidence in the immediate future. It is way past time for litigation against these criminals.

Richard G
November 25, 2011 11:56 pm

date: Mon, 28 Sep 2009 22:33:06 -0400
from: Michael Mann
subject: attacks against Keith
to: Phil Jones , Tim Osborn
…” So far, we’ve simply deleted all of the attempts by McIntyre and his minions to draw attention to this at RealClimate.”
Oh goody, I have always wanted to be a MINION. When do we get our pitchforks and torches? How about ID cards?

Mann Bearpig
November 26, 2011 12:01 am

Just found this beauty..
From: Ian Harris
To: Phil Jones
Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2007 18:43:38 +0100
Subject: CRU TS 3.00 Precip
Cc: dave lister
Hi
As a result of trying to produce the ‘wet’ secondary parameter, I
discovered that I was using an inappropriate algorithm to convert
percentage anomalies to real values. No idea where I got it from
though I can say with certainty that I didn’t just make it up!
In the following, N is the Normal, A is the anomaly and V is the
‘real’ value.
I was using:
V = N(A+N)/100
However, the anomdtb.f90 program (which creates the original
anomalies at the start of the process) uses:
A = 1000((V/N)-1)
which translates to:
V = N(A+1000)/1000
This only affects Pre and Wet, I have re-run Pre. An example of the
difference is that, for January 2001, the maximum was 14408 and is
now 7174! Obviously trends will not be significantly impacted so I
don’t think the Nat Geog stuff needs amending.
Apologies for any inconvenience (did Dimitrious use these files too?).
Cheers
Harry
Ian “Harry” Harris
Climatic Research Unit
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ
United Kingdom

Editor
November 26, 2011 12:04 am

Barry – I am not going to try to answer your somewhat rambling comments point by point. I answered your original criticism as requested, and I am not interested in going through emails of your selection in fine detail. I do note that you were in agreement with me that Michael Mann was biased, our only difference being semantic.
To stick to the essentials : Michael Mann was and is biased. That makes his work suspect. Of its own, that is not enough to dismiss his work, only to be very cautious indeed about it. But examination of his work by various people has shown it to be worse than “suspect”, as in this email which questions whether it is even inside ” the realm of science”:
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=1675.txt
Two, will all of you get over the “Hockey Stick Curve”? That’s a tough one. Now that two teams of recognized specialists (North, Wegman) have confirmed the critiques of McIntyre and McKitrick, many have watched the ultimate result in disbelief. Hockeysticks tend to have strong persuasive powers and the MBH version has done that job extremely well, whilst there was nothing to be persuaded about. That’s hard to digest.
Science indulges itself in being self corrective, so when things are fishy with miracle cures for AIDS or Cold Fusion or Human Genome duplication then a public rectification follows, which would be especially prudent if the case could even remotely be associated with noble cause corruption. None of that has happened with the most prominent Fig 1b of the Third Assessment Report SPM , on the contrary, it is still in the SPM of the fourth version, albeit concealed in the spaghetti graph. Is it justified to keep global warming in the realm of science where it has made itself immune for self correcting and falsification?

I will pick up on one point you made, because it shows where you have missed the plot. You say “Even to this day some well-explained snippets still have traction. “Mike’s nature trick”, “hide the decline”, and the harryreadme.txt, are still cited as evidence of something insidious in the paleoclimate field.“.
You clearly don’t understand what was done in “hide the decline”. The first question you should ask yourself is “When is it ever OK for a scientist to hide something?“. Your answer should be “never” or maybe “never that I can think of“. That should tell you to tread with extreme caution. What was hidden was the inability of temperature proxies to match the instrumental record. The inescapable conclusion was that the proxies were useless. The only immediate correct action was to cease using them. But that is not what they did. Instead of ditching the proxies, they chopped out the bits (plural) that they didn’t like, kept the bits they did like, and spliced in a part of the instrument record so that the graph looked complete. I think your word sums it up reasonably well – “insidious” – though I might choose something a bit stronger. As quoted above, Andre Bijkerk says “many have watched the ultimate result in disbelief” and questions whether the hockey-stick is in “the realm of science.

Editor
November 26, 2011 12:10 am

PS. Not just the hockey-stick – Andre Bijkerk was actually questioning whether Global Warming itself was in “the realm of science”.

barry
November 26, 2011 12:16 am

JPeden,

They all use “climate change” to mean “CO2 = CAGW” and, hence, that there has been no climate change and can never be any climate change without CO2 = CAGW. Therefore, they all agree with all of what this absurd idea means about paleoclimate.

Absolute tosh. Bunkum. Rubbish, JPeden. Not only do all these scientists acknowledge past climate change, they devote whole papers to investigating them and their possible causes, both natural and anthropogenic (land use).

Global temperatures are known to have varied over the past 1500 years… The patterns of temperature change imply dynamical responses of climate to natural radiative forcing changes involving El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation.

Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly
Mann, Bradley, Hughes, Amman etc (2009)

Proxy records and results of a three dimensional climate model show that European summer temperatures roughly a millennium ago were comparable to those of the last 25 years of the 20th century, supporting the existence of a summer “Medieval Warm Period” in Europe. Those two relatively mild periods were separated by a rather cold era, often referred to as the “Little Ice Age”. Our modelling results suggest that the warm summer conditions during the early second millennium compared to the climate background state of the 13th–18th century are due to a large extent to the long term cooling induced by changes in land-use in Europe.

The origin of the European “Medieval Warm Period”
Mann (co-author) et al (2006)
Or, take the introduction to Michael Mann’s 2007 paper,
Climate Over the Past Two Millennia
Earth’s climate exhibits variations on all resolvable timescales, from the interannual (year to year) to the geological (millions of years and longer). This variability is known to result from both internal and external factors, the latter associated with both natural and anthropogenic influences. A good review is provided by Ruddiman (2001). It is generally believed that modern (e.g., nineteenth to twenty-first century) climate change is due primarily to anthropogenic factors, including increased greenhouse gas concentrations owing to fossil fuel burning and the more regionally limited offsetting cooling influence of anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols. On longer timescales, a variety of natural processes, both internal (e.g., intrinsic modes of variability in the atmosphere and ocean) and external (e.g., solar and volcanic radiative forcing changes and, to a lesser extent, Earth-orbital changes) are believed to have been important over the past one to two millennia.”
http://www.eos.ubc.ca/~mjelline/453website/eosc453/E_prints/newfer08/mann07.pdf
That flies directly in the face of your silly assertions.
A number of replies to me have not been worth replying to in light of their obviously specious content. I highlight this one as an example.

November 26, 2011 12:19 am

Henry says:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/#comment-808878
I should perhaps rephrase that last question to Barry,
“Do you agree with me that the increase in the CO2 cannot be it?”
it must be changed to:
Do you agree that the observed warming on earth cannot be due to an increased greenhouse effect due to an increase in GHG emissions?

phil
November 26, 2011 1:39 am

These climategate II emails are a treasure trove for comedy writers–tons of materials for a TV sitcom about climate scientists. Call it Hot Air? The ineptness, mean-spiritedness, and stupidity of UEA-related climate scientists is laughable. Ricky Gervais, are you following this?

Oliver Cromwell
November 26, 2011 1:50 am

Email 4253 – what do people make of this one – if you read the gist of it, they are discussing setting up an ‘independent’ panel to review Michael Mann’s hockey stick distortion. The last paragraph is particularly damming and gives a good indication as to how they think. Apologies if this email has already been discussed.
“Mike , Ray, Malcolm
We three have been discussing the weeks shenanigans and thought we should start the
wider discussion on the concept and practical aspects of someone (perhaps us – perhaps
not us) doing the “independent” audit of your 98 and/or 99 work. It is clear that the
debate as regards the M and M results will now likely stall , until one or more people
undertake this – but it is unlikely to go away until such time as something is done. ”
“We have no particular axe to grind , but it is almost certain that there will be some
pressure for some such work, and we suspect that DEFRA here will be quizzed by various
bodies for their opinion on this. If so, why not us rather than others ?
It may be that anything we do here would not be seen as “independent” by the skeptics
anyway ( and we would not consider doing it without some appropriate level of
interaction with you lot) – but in the end , what counts, is what is published in the
peer-review literature.”
” To get the discussion going , we wish to ask your opinion(s) on the concept, level of
interaction between us and you guys ( in planning , or also implementation , and
synthesis, writing up?). What about this issue of our perceived independence – do we
give a damn?
Keith, Tim, Phil

Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: readacted
Fax: redacted”

Oliver Cromwell
November 26, 2011 2:14 am

And another example of how they work together to pressure scientific journals from Email 1051190249:
“PS Re CR, I do not know the best way to handle the specifics of the
editoring. Hans von Storch is partly to blame — he encourages the
publication of crap science ‘in order to stimulate debate’. One approach
is to go direct to the publishers and point out the fact that their
journal is perceived as being a medium for disseminating misinformation
under the guise of refereed work. I use the word ‘perceived’ here, since
whether it is true or not is not what the publishers care about — it is
how the journal is seen by the community that counts.
I think we could get a large group of highly credentialed scientists to
sign such a letter — 50+ people.
Note that I am copying this view only to Mike Hulme and Phil Jones.
Mike’s idea to get editorial board members to resign will probably not
work — must get rid of von Storch too, otherwise holes will eventually
fill up with people like Legates, Balling, Lindzen, Michaels, Singer,
etc. I have heard that the publishers are not happy with von Storch, so
the above approach might remove that hurdle too.”

Oliver Cromwell
November 26, 2011 2:19 am

Email 3791 – more email deletion and how to get round the law.
“date: Mon, 8 Dec 2008 19:49:18 -0000 (GMT)
from: “Tim Osborn”
subject: RE: FW: FOI_08-50 ; EIR_08-01
to: “Jones Philip Prof”
Hi Phil!
re. your email to Dave Palmer [which he copied in his response to you and
cc’d to me, Keith & Michael McGarvie, and which has hence already been
multiply copied within the UEA system, and therefore will probably exist
for a number of months and possibly years, and could be released under FOI
if a request is made for it during that time!]… I assume that you didn’t
delete any emails that David Holland has requested (because that would be
illegal) but that instead his request merely prompted you to do a spring
clean of various other emails that hadn’t been requested, as part of your
regular routine of deleting old emails. If that is what you meant, then
it might be a good idea to clarify your previous email to Dave Palmer, to
avoid it being misunderstood. 🙂
The way things seem to be going, I think it best if we discuss all FOI,
EIR, Data Protection requests in person wherever possible, rather than via
email. It’s such a shame that the skeptics’ vexatious use of this
legislation may prevent us from using such an efficient modern technology
as email, but it seems that if we want to have confidential discussions
then we may need to avoid it.
I shall delete this email and those related to it as part of my regular
routine of deleting old emails!
Cheers
Tim”

Tucci78
November 26, 2011 2:31 am

At 1:50 AM on 26 November, Oliver Cromwell refers to C.R.U. Email 4253, in which is found the acronym “DEFRA.”
I had to look it up, and it appears to be a reference to the UK government’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.
Again and again and again, we have demonstrations in these e-mails of concerted and coordinated connivance on the part of these malefactors, their purposes never to refine or otherwise improve the accuracy and reliability of their so-called “science” but instead to perpetrate endless suppressio veri, suggestio falsi in the pursuit of their political advocacy.
Why the hell does anybody refer to these practices as “noble cause corruption”? Is there anything “noble” – even in the diseased minds of these Cargo Cult Science witch-doctors – that can be construed as a manifest of good intentions?
The more I read and learn about what’s contained in FOIA2011.zip, the more convinced I am becoming that these weasels bear the same relationship to real climate science that Ernesto “Che” Guevara bore to the profession of medicine.
And from very much the same motivations.

November 26, 2011 3:03 am

Henry@Barry
Barry, you are ducking and diving again.
What is your explanation for the (big) difference in the warming between the NH and the SH?

Andrew
November 26, 2011 4:00 am

It should be made abundantly clear that Prof Muller never was a “Skeptic” re his own video about the hockey stick shows that “we all agree its AGWwarming” and that the data produced by BEST is a rehash of adjusted data so 0 credibility. Also it should be pointed out that with this years and month UHA satellite temps their is no significant warming what so ever. In fcat it may be a negative anomaly this month

November 26, 2011 5:20 am

barry,
You need to pay attention to Mike Jonas’ comment @12:04 am above. Especially the last paragraph. Try to rationalize that, if you can.

November 26, 2011 6:19 am

Another Hide The Decline?
http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/0018.txt
>>P.S. Ricardo, here is the Oroko temperature reconstruction.
>>
>>JANUARY-MARCH TEMPERATURES RECONSTRUCTED FROM
>>OROKO SWAMP, NEW ZEALAND SILVER PINE TREE RINGS
>>BE ADVISED THAT THE DATA AFTER 1958 ARE INSTRUMENTAL
>>TEMPERATURES

==============================
Well, that’s one way to boost a temperature model’s R-Squared.

barry
November 26, 2011 6:54 am

Mike,

To stick to the essentials : Michael Mann was and is biased.

Er, no… Raymond Bradley said he was biased. Is Bradley God or something? Is his word law?
We’re discussing the emails, right? Are you meaning to suggest that I should just accept whatever Raymond Bradley says about Michael Mann as being the final, irreducible truth?
I thought we were discussing what could be legitimately gleaned from the latest releases. You’re now talking about something else.
To whit: Bradley said he disagreed with Mann and Jones 2003. You ‘reinterpreted’ that to mean that Bradley thought that Mann’s work in general was shoddy.
You are generalizing about particulars, and drawing way more inference out of the emails than is there. I’m not rambling. I’m taking the time to point out the knowns and unknowns, and challenging your assertions. I guess you choose to characterise this as ‘rambling’ so that you can avoid the points.
As I promised, I replied to your comment on the first quote in the top article, and then I linked the second quote and gave my thoughts on it. I don’t know where you’re going with this, but I’m still willing to take these quotes soberly, one at a time, and see what can be reasonably gleaned.
My impression from the 2009 release was that a false narrative was spun, and that this now informs much of the reading of the latest releases. The “picture” being “built” here is largely a fiction built on snippets, of which the meaning is almost always equivocal, as you alluded to in an earlier post.
A sober assessment would accommodate the ambiguities inherent in these private emails. The giveaway that the “picture” is mainly a mass delusion is that there is not much equivocal about the interpretation.

barry
November 26, 2011 7:18 am

Mike,

You clearly don’t understand what was done in “hide the decline”. The first question you should ask yourself is “When is it ever OK for a scientist to hide something?“. Your answer should be “never” or maybe “never that I can think of“. That should tell you to tread with extreme caution. What was hidden was the inability of temperature proxies to match the instrumental record. The inescapable conclusion was that the proxies were useless.

I know about the divergence issue in the late 20th century WRT maximum latewood density in certain tree-ring proxies. ‘Trick’ and ‘hide’ are jargon, and you are right that one should approach such informal 9non-scientific language cautiously.
A divergence in the latter part of the proxy DOES NOT automatically mean that the rest of the series is useless. It IS a big red flag, and the data series should be tested. The data series follows the instrumental record very well for a significant period before diverging in the second half of the 20th century. Briffa and others devoted entire studies to this phenomenon. The discussion, then, devolves to how ell these issues were addressed. There was no ‘hiding’ going on, as the issue was in the public domain, and the ‘trick’ was as simple as it gets.
On the divergence issue, it is NOT an ‘inescapable conclusion’ that the data is ‘useless’, but that outcome is a strong possibility that must be explored. Most data is imperfect, but that doesn’t mean they are useless. Your comments suggests more about your preferences than your ability to weigh these issues coolly.

David Ball
November 26, 2011 7:25 am

barry, it is not clear who you are trying to convince. Us or yourself?

Richard Sharpe
November 26, 2011 8:00 am

sekuhara says on November 25, 2011 at 6:04 pm

Time to scrap the light bulb ban and carbon tax at last?

Since the light bulb ban was all about corporate profits (as most likely was another ban) this is unlikely to be undone. AGW and environmental concerns were simply used as the vehicle to get the ban in place.

November 26, 2011 8:27 am

Barry,
I’m sure you are an excellent chess player. Unfortunately life is not a chess game.
In life, the King always has the last move.
Lets have some coffee sometime and discuss things.

A physicist
November 26, 2011 8:37 am

David Ball says: Barry, it is not clear who you are trying to convince. Us or yourself?

David, perhaps its neither … perhaps Barry is hoping to elicit skeptical responses that are founded upon thorough review of the data and dispassionate analysis of the science, in service of foresighted societal objectives?
That would be the best kind of skepticism, eh?
Fortunately, there’s nothing stopping you from providing it!  🙂  🙂  🙂
[REPLY: Better, but this thread is about whether the scientists are capable of dispassionate analysis of the science. What constitutes “foresighted societal objectives” is a question of politics, not science. -REP]

Editor
November 26, 2011 9:11 am

Here is an example of Phil Jones trying to avoid a FOIA request, but he apparently struggles with the implementation…:
2577.txt
“date: Thu Sep 25 15:24:48 2008
from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: CONFIDENTIAL: Response
to: “Mitchell, John FB (Chief Scientist)”
John,
I’ve called Jo to say I’m happy with their response.
I’ll also delete this email after I’ve sent it.
We’ve had a request for all our internal UEA emails that have any bearing on the subject, so apologies for brevity.
See you in November!
Cheers
Phil”
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=2577.txt&search=CONFIDENTIAL%3A+Response
I wonder why Phil planned to delete this email. Here is the response from Jo that Phil was happy with:
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=5122.txt&search=CONFIDENTIAL%3A+Response
The Daily Mail covered this issue in 2010, i.e.
“Professor John Mitchell, the Met Office’s Director of Climate Science, shared responsibility for the most worrying headline in the 2007 Nobel Prize-winning IPCC report – that the Earth is now hotter than at any time in the past 1,300 years.
And he approved the inclusion in the report of the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph, showing centuries of level or declining temperatures until a steep 20th Century rise.”
“Some of the FOI requests made to them came from the same person who has made requests to the Met Office.
He is David Holland, an electrical engineer familiar with advanced statistics who has written several papers questioning orthodox thinking on global warming.
The Met Office’s first response to Mr Holland was a claim that Prof Mitchell’s records had been ‘deleted’ from its computers.
Later, officials admitted they did exist after all, but could not be disclosed because they were ‘personal’, and had nothing to do with the professor’s Met Office job.
Finally, they conceded that this too was misleading because Prof Mitchell had been paid by the Met Office for his IPCC work and had received Government expenses to travel to IPCC meetings.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249035/How-Met-Office-blocked-questions-mans-role-hockey-stick-climate-row.html
Why all the cloak and dagger stuff if this is all settled science…?

November 26, 2011 9:12 am

For LINUX users and if anyone is interested, I wrote a simple bash script to find phrases in the emails and then display those emails. Save the script as search-mails.sh.
#!/bin/bash
# Usage: ./search-mails.sh “search text”
# searches for “search text” in text files in current directory
# the search text does not need to be surrounded by quotes
# author patrioticduo November 2011
echo “Searching for ‘$*'”
FindFiles=$(find $(pwd) -type f -iname “*.txt” | sort)
for EachEntry in $FindFiles # loop over each file
do
#echo “Testing “$EachEntry
grep “$*” $EachEntry
if [ $? == 0 ] ; then
echo “Found in ” $EachEntry
more $EachEntry
echo “Press Enter to continue”
read
echo “Searching…”
fi
done
exit 0

Richard Sharpe
November 26, 2011 9:22 am

Hmmm, patrioticduo, you do know that grep -l will display the name of a file that a phrase appears in, so:

find ${pwd} -name \*.txt -exec grep -l “$1” {} \;
or something like that will do what you want.

Richard Sharpe
November 26, 2011 9:34 am

And then I would pipe the results into sort …
Play around with a pipeline. It might do all you want … and certainly will be faster than find followed by a bash loop and might avoid problems with the variable FindFiles causing problems if there are too many entries and it exceeds bash’s limit. Although this is probably not a problem, good practice is to enclose $FindFiles in quotes (rabbit ears) to avoid problems with spaces in names as well.

TheGoodLocust
November 26, 2011 9:40 am

“Oliver Cromwell says:
November 26, 2011 at 2:19 am
Email 3791 ”
That one is certainly a keeper for multiple reasons.

Alix James
Reply to  TheGoodLocust
November 28, 2011 7:59 am

Yes, you can almost hear the “nudge nudge, wink wink”: “I assume that you didn’t delete any emails that David Holland has requested (because that would be illegal) but that instead his request merely prompted you to do a spring clean”…
Or, as was said on the American comedy “WKRP”, when someone wanted to start a rumour, they would tell the gossipy newsman Les Nesman: “Don’t tell anyone, Les. And don’t tell anyone REAL SOON…”.
In other words, “don’t delete any emails, that would be wrong. But you might want to start deleting emails as, you know, part of a long standing policy to clean your mail box…”

November 26, 2011 9:45 am

I wanted to be able to provide the user with some friendly options in the for loop to make it easier to page through the mails that had certain text in them. But mostly, I am no bash expert and certainly thank you for helping me to improve. 🙂

David Ball
November 26, 2011 9:49 am

A physicist says:
November 26, 2011 at 8:37 am
“David, perhaps its neither … perhaps Barry is hoping to elicit skeptical responses that are founded upon thorough review of the data and dispassionate analysis of the science, in service of foresighted societal objectives?
That would be the best kind of skepticism, eh?”
I agree with you completely, but the emails clearly show the opposite of this.

David Ball
November 26, 2011 9:51 am

😉 🙂 🙂

philincalifornia
November 26, 2011 10:03 am

A Physicist:
founded upon thorough review of the data and dispassionate analysis of the science, in service of foresighted societal objectives?
=================================
Oh dear !!!! Conclusion reached, thorough review of the data to follow and “dispassionately’ reach said conclusion.
You must be A Crap Physicist.

JPeden
November 26, 2011 10:10 am

barry says:
November 26, 2011 at 12:16 am
JPeden,
“They all use “climate change” to mean “CO2 = CAGW” and, hence, that there has been no climate change and can never be any climate change without CO2 = CAGW. Therefore, they all agree with all of what this absurd idea means about paleoclimate.”
Absolute tosh. Bunkum. Rubbish, JPeden. Not only do all these scientists acknowledge past climate change, they devote whole papers to investigating them and their possible causes, both natural and anthropogenic (land use).

oopsie, barry, I did not say the noble Climate Scientists are consistent in their use of the term “climate change”. In fact their inconsistency of word use, as per their differing definitions of the same word as needed, is instead a feature of Climate “science’s” Propaganda Op. in regard to what is its very well known tactic of playing “word games”, here used by Climate “science” toward their cynically manipulative “perception is reality” goal – which likewise contradicts the practice of real science, simply by inviting the “perceiver” to choose the “reality” as per usual in the functioning of Climate “science’s” method.
Or are the Climate Scientists who use the term “climate change” as they themselves have chosen to define it by their above use, while at the same time also appearing to admit of natural processes producing ~ “climate variability”, “climate change deniers“, too?
Well, barry, absent Climate “science’s” practice of real science, you and Mann once again invite a pliant audience to “take your pick”:
…take the introduction to Michael Mann’s 2007 paper,
Climate Over the Past Two Millennia
“Earth’s climate exhibits variations on all resolvable timescales, from the interannual (year to year) to the geological (millions of years and longer). This variability is known to result from both internal and external factors, the latter associated with both natural and anthropogenic influences…It is generally believed that modern (e.g., nineteenth to twenty-first century) climate change is due primarily to anthropogenic factors…On longer timescales, a variety of natural processes, both internal (e.g., intrinsic modes of variability in the atmosphere and ocean) and external (e.g., solar and volcanic radiative forcing changes and, to a lesser extent, Earth-orbital changes) are believed to have been important over the past one to two millennia.”

Ok, the natural processes are “important” on longer timescales = “two millennia”? But given his own 1000 yr. Hockey Stick and his failure to admit its inadequacies, is Mann admitting the existence of natural factors quite apart from CO2 = CAGW which produce climate change, or is he even more denying the determinative effect of these factors by now claiming that the “modern” warming is actually “unprecedented” within the past two! millennia? And thereby denying the existence of even more naturally caused climatic events within our natural climate! And who knows how far back Mann will eventually extend these “longer timescales”?
But re-enter the principles of real science, barry, and the failure of Climate “science” to have produced even one successful relevant prediction yet based upon its CO2 = CAGW “hypotheses” makes your and Mann’s imagination simply irrelevant.

November 26, 2011 10:43 am

crosspatch says November 25, 2011 at 11:51 am

It is a sort of meta-government making global policy and using a fear of climate disaster as their mechanism for getting the people to fall in line.
So completely sick.

There is a label for a pattern similar to that: Münchausen syndrome by proxy

Münchausen syndrome by proxy (MSbP) is … [where] care-givers deliberately exaggerate, fabricate, and/or induce physical, psychological, behavioral, and/or mental health problems in others … by either fabricating symptoms or actually causing harm … , whereby convincing not only the child but others, including medical providers, that their child is sick.

Many experts feel this form of ill treatment is driven not only by the attention that the child and parent/caregiver receive because of the diagnostic tests that must be run, but also by the satisfaction of being able to deceive individuals who the abuser feels are more important or powerful than he or she.

References
.

Solomon Green
November 26, 2011 10:46 am

barry says:
“I know about the divergence issue in the late 20th century WRT maximum latewood density in certain tree-ring proxies. ‘Trick’ and ‘hide’ are jargon, and you are right that one should approach such informal non-scientific language cautiously. A divergence in the latter part of the proxy DOES NOT automatically mean that the rest of the series is useless. It IS a big red flag, and the data series should be tested. The data series follows the instrumental record very well for a significant period before diverging in the second half of the 20th century. Briffa and others devoted entire studies to this phenomenon. …
On the divergence issue, it is NOT an ‘inescapable conclusion’ that the data is ‘useless’, but that outcome is a strong possibility that must be explored.”
When I first studied statistics, I was taught to beware of spurious correlation. The fact that there is almost perfect correlation over even a long period does not prove cause. And unless cause is proved there is never any guarantee that the correlation will continue. By graduating their “proxies” to known (!) temperatures and obtaining a good fit some climatologists thought that they had unearthed natural thermometers.
When, for more recent periods, these were found wanting they replaced the later measurements obtained from their proxies with real (!) readings but continued to use the same proxies to replicate temperatures for prior periods. After it was pointed out that the data which they had obtained from the proxies did not tally with contemporaneous written records for earlier periods they continued to use the same proxies but overlaid the records by use of models. Hence Mann, after producing his hockey stick, could partially change his position and write “‘Proxy records and results of a three dimensional climate model show that European summer temperatures roughly a millennium ago were comparable to those of the last 25 years of the 20th century, supporting the existence of a summer “Medieval Warm Period” in Europ”.
Despite Briffa and others devoting entire studies to this phenomenom there has never been any satisfactory explanation as to why the proxies did not match later known temperatures and hence the a priori hypothesis, which has still to be disproved, is that the observed correlation between the proxies and real temperatures over the earlier years for which both exist is spurious. It does not necessarfly prove that the “observed” correlation was the result of overzealous graduation but that possibility should be explored. However, instead of ascertaining the reason for the discrepancy, Jones, Mann et al chose to “hide the decline”, perhaps in the hope that the “trick” would remain hidden. Hence their reluctance to provide data, raw or otherwise.
Until these missionaries come up with a rational explanation as to why the proxies which they claim provide an accurate measure of past temperatures ceased so to do in the latter half of the twentieth century, the splicing of the two series remains unsound and the proxy records of dubious validity.

Stephen Wilde
November 26, 2011 10:56 am

For some real science, see here:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=8723
“CO2 or Sun?”
It was never CO2 at all as the satellite data shows.

Sean O'Hare
November 26, 2011 11:09 am

In the following 3 paras from the intro to the readme file the Continental European form of delimiting thousands is used:
“Every day nearly 16.000 children die from hunger and related causes.”
This archive contains some 5.000 emails picked from keyword searches. A few
remarks and redactions are marked with triple brackets.

The rest, some 220.000, are encrypted for various reasons. We are not planning
to publicly release the passphrase.

How many continental Europeans work at UEA?

A physicist
November 26, 2011 11:16 am

A physicist says: “David, perhaps its neither … perhaps Barry is hoping to elicit skeptical responses that are founded upon thorough review of the data and dispassionate analysis of the science, in service of foresighted societal objectives?
That would be the best kind of skepticism, eh?”

David Ball says: I agree with you completely, but the emails clearly show the opposite of this.

David, it seems to me that the strongest skepticism derives its strength from focusing upon the strongest science. And for sure, sceptics and non-skeptics alike agree on this: neither Al Gore’s movies nor the purloined CRU emails represent the strongest climate change science.
That’s why the American Institute of Physics (AIP) does everyone a terrific service — sceptics and non-skeptics alike — by hosting its history-oriented scientific survey “The Discovery of Global Warming”. As the AIP’s survey plainly shows, neither the basic science of climate change, nor the human nature that struggles to come to terms with that science, has substantially changed in the last 60 years (essentially since Roger Revell’s climate-change synthesis in the 1950s).
The present-day climate change drama calls to mind the words of a philosopher much-cherished by America’s founders:

“If error and ignorance have forged the chains which bind peoples in oppression, if it is prejudice which perpetuates those chains, science, reason and truth will one day be able to break them.” (“Si l’erreur et l’ignorance ont forge les chaines des peuples, si le prejuge les perpetue, la science, la raison, la verite pourront un jour les briser”, Paul-Henri Thiry, Baron d’Holbach, 1770)

As the historian Jonathan Israel has written: “A noble and beautiful thought, no doubt, but was he right? That perhaps, is the question of our time.”
For sure, neither Al Gore’s movies nor the CRU emails nor the innumerable skeptical fulminations against them, have much to do with “the questions of our time”, which include the relatively simple question of whether AGW is real and serious, and also the harder question of whether the human race is capable of constructively addressing serious realities.

November 26, 2011 11:26 am

Stephen Wilde says:
It was never CO2 at all as the satellite data shows.
Henry@Stephen
never say never…
Remember I said it looks like that there could be a direct correlation if you compare the results in my tables
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
with that of the leaf area index shown in the world chart here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/the-earths-biosphere-is-booming-data-suggests-that-co2-is-the-cause-part-2/
(I wonder if someone here could tell me how I could get their actual measured figures on this, because I cannot find it in the above blog)
In the red areas, where we find earth is blooming, and more greening, you will note from the results in the tables that the increase in maxima is picked up and trapped by the increasing vegetation. In the blue areas, where substantial de-forestation has been going on, you will find mean temperatures and minima declining or staying unchanged, even though maxima are rising.
So, it seems if you want the earth to be greener, the natural consequence is that it will also get a bit warmer.
But, don’t forget, this extra greening of earth is made possible by the extra carbondioxide that we put up in the air in the first place,
because carbondioxode=plantfood

Stephen Wilde
November 26, 2011 11:44 am

Hi Henry,
I think the main factor dictating atmospheric CO2 content is the sea surface temperature. Sure, vegetation is involved but in my view a secondary factor.
I believe Murry Salby is shortly going to confirm that the oceans and soil moisture on land are the primary sinks and sources and they are temperature dependent.
So it all comes back to global cloud quantities and global albedo.

crosspatch
November 26, 2011 11:53 am

0002.txt is interesting if you are interested in dendro timelines. Here is Briffa (in conversation Edward Cook) wanting Mann and Jones left out of some research into apparently how uncertain the dendrochronological studies really are. Has some interesting comments on Bradley in there, too.

David Ball
November 26, 2011 11:58 am

A physicist says:
November 26, 2011 at 11:16 am
I hope you can understand my apprehension at allowing the authors of these emails, the world bank, and the U.S. dept. of energy determine that future for me. 🙂

JPeden
November 26, 2011 12:02 pm

A physicist says:
November 26, 2011 at 11:16 am
For sure, neither Al Gore’s movies nor the CRU emails nor the innumerable skeptical fulminations against them, have much to do with “the questions of our time”, which include the relatively simple question of whether AGW is real and serious….
Your “sceptical fulminations” are instead at the heart of real science’s method and principles. But since you don’t recognize the fact that Climate Science not only does not practice real science, but also intentionally avoids its method and principles, you have no idea how to answer your own “relatively simple” questions, or what your platitude “begging the question” = “presuming the truth of that which is the question” of whether Climate Science has any “strong science” even means!
So you need to address your own problems first.

Warrick
November 26, 2011 12:35 pm

“We have found a correlation between tree rings and galactic cosmic radiation:”
“I hope doesn’t
>result in scientific excommunication!”
0782.txt Email forwarded by Keith Briffa to someone in uea
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.03026.x/full
A relationship between galactic cosmic radiation and tree rings
Sigrid Dengel, Dominik Aeby, John Grace
Article first published online: 14 SEP 2009
DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.03026.x

A physicist
November 26, 2011 12:43 pm

A physicist says: For sure, neither Al Gore’s movies nor the CRU emails nor the innumerable skeptical fulminations against them, have much to do with “the questions of our time”, which include the relatively simple question of whether AGW is real and serious, and also the harder question of whether the human race is capable of constructively addressing serious realities.

JPeden says: Your “sceptical fulminations” are instead at the heart of real science’s method and principles. But since you don’t recognize the fact that Climate Science not only does not practice real science, but also intentionally avoids its method and principles, you have no idea how to answer your own “relatively simple” questions, or what your platitude “begging the question” = “presuming the truth of that which is the question” of whether Climate Science has any “strong science” even means! So you need to address your own problems first.

JPeden, anyone who reads the American Institute of Physics account of Roger Revell’s climate-change synthesis in the 1950s will be struck by the fact that the CRU emails are showing us precisely the same methods of science that Revelle and his colleagues practiced back in the 1950s. As the historian John Tolland was has written, the point is that:

“There are no simple lessons in history … it is human nature that repeats itself, not history. We often learn more about the past from the present, in fact, than the reverse.”

The present debates here on WUWT teach us much about the past struggle of John Revelle and his colleagues in the 1950s … they teach us that science in the 1950s faced the same struggle that today’s climate change scientists are facing: the struggle of new-and-correct scientific ideas to gain acceptance against human nature embodied in the thought-habits of a conservative establishment.
[MODERATOR’S NOTE: You are starting to repeat yourself and dangerously close to being snipped…. again. The topic is the e-mails. Make cogent references if you want to continue to comment. -REP]

David Ball
November 26, 2011 2:05 pm

Dustbin. Isn’t that where the latest climate conclave is?

crosspatch
November 26, 2011 2:23 pm

One other thing that might be interesting as FOIA2 overlaps FOIA1 in time is to combine both document dumps into one repository and then grepping through in search of various conversations. It might be that portions of context for FOIA2 are actually in 1 and vice versa. One thing I am going to do is put both archives in subdirectories of a parent dir and using grep -r (for GNU grep) to recursively search both directories for desired keywords and people.

Editor
November 26, 2011 2:30 pm

Barry – my goodness you’re good at missing the point, twisting and spinning. You say “Raymond Bradley said he was biased. Is Bradley God or something? Is his word law?
We’re discussing the emails, right? Are you meaning to suggest that I should just accept whatever Raymond Bradley says about Michael Mann as being the final, irreducible truth?

Well, let’s have a look at what I said: “That makes his work suspect. Of its own, that is not enough to dismiss his work, only to be very cautious indeed about it. But examination of his work by various people has shown it to be worse than “suspect”, as in this email which questions whether it is even inside ” the realm of science”:
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=1675.txt
“Two, will all of you get over the “Hockey Stick Curve”? That’s a tough one. Now that two teams of recognized specialists (North, Wegman) have confirmed the critiques of McIntyre and McKitrick, many have watched the ultimate result in disbelief.

So, you see, the answer is no, Bradley is not a god, his word is not law. Like anyone else, what he says needs to be checked against other evidence. In this case it turns out that there is overwhelming evidence of which I have quoted a part
re your next comment. How you can spin this one is rather breathtaking. You say “There was no ‘hiding’ going on“. Well, let me remind you that it was not me that said there was hiding going on, it was Phil Jones. Remember?
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=3451.txt
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline
Again, it is not enough to take even Phil Jones’ word for it, it is necessary to check that what he said is correct. The evidence again is overwhelming, as acknowledged by Andre Bijkirk above. Regarding the unacceptable usage of the proxy data, that is explained well by Solomon Green … http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/#comment-809311
… ending with “Until these missionaries come up with a rational explanation as to why the proxies which they claim provide an accurate measure of past temperatures ceased so to do in the latter half of the twentieth century, the splicing of the two series remains unsound and the proxy records of dubious validity.

Myrrh
November 26, 2011 2:40 pm

newzealandclimate says:
November 25, 2011 at 3:54 pm
Something odd here. I posted a link to the following earlier today, and it has disappeared:
I have been searching the emails for New Zealand related content, and just posted this on my site.
http://newzealandclimatechange.wordpress.com/2011/11/26/climategatte-2-salinger-puts-the-boot-into-de-freitas/
The email is from Jim Salinger, who was a ‘scientist’ at NIWA, the organisation that created a junk science temperature record for New Zealand. In the email, he proposes that journal editors write to the dean of University of Auckland with a clear intention to try to get a skeptic, de Freitas, sacked from the university. In another email, Michael Mann approves of the action……most interestingly the head of the IPCC is copied in on the emails of the hatchet job.
Shocking stuff!
===========================
Your previous post is also there, must have been a delay. Thanks for this, and other posting on de Freitas, I was wondering about New Zealand and Salinger of course was the one who fiddled the temperature records there (and a recent successful campaign to get these thrown out of the official record).
Found this email exchange, not from Climategate 2, but from the Grauniad – Hot enough for you? In this week’s email exchange, Dr Jean Paultikof and Dr Chris de Freitas discuss the causes and consequences of global warming
: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2003/aug/16/comment.weather
“I don’t mind saying that I would rather be in Clacton.” 🙂

RockyRoad
November 26, 2011 2:49 pm

A physicist says:
November 26, 2011 at 12:43 pm

…will be struck by the fact that the CRU emails are showing us precisely the same methods of science that Revelle and his colleagues practiced back in the 1950s. As the historian John Tolland was has written, the point is that:

The point is that these emails show disgusting science and scientists that are more activist than scientist. It doesn’t matter how long such shennanigans have been going on, what’s important is that the Internet and 24-hr “news cycle” now let the whole world see them for the “climsci” that they are–only partially open about the climate, hence the “clim”, and not complete scientists, either, hence the “sci”.
But David Ball is right–“Dustbin” is where climate science is going as the CRU bunch and those advocating “The Cause” are exposed in future repeats of Climategate. Count on upwards of 40+ 5,000-email disclosures. I predict, physicist, you will eventually wear your fingers out trying to support their horrible methodology but it really won’t matter. China and India read this blog and yet continue to finish several coal-fired power plants every week. It appears they know something that you fail to see. Obviously, they’re not taking your argument seriously.

Danny Wright
November 26, 2011 3:09 pm

To whoever –
“Most people don’t believe AGW because it goes against common sense, ”
Not sure about America but here in Britain “most people” = dunces who read tabloids and watch X Factor – their opinions on almost everything worth absolutely nothing. Their “common sense” right up there with the “common sense” of the “God doesn’t like gays” wisdom of the numerous sky pixie cult followers that populate this planet.
” Climategate actually provided the evidence to say that it is a big hoax. ”
According to you but not everyone else on the planet. So it’s an opinion.
Climategate actually provided the evidence to say that it is a big hoax.

Stephen Wilde
November 26, 2011 4:15 pm

Climategate scientists DID collude with government officials to hide research that didn’t fit their apocalyptic global warming5,000 leaked emails reveal scientists deleted evidence that cast doubt on claims climate change was man-made
Experts were under orders from US and UK officials to come up with a ‘strong message’
Critics claim: ‘The stink of intellectual corruption is overpowering’
Scientist asks, ‘What if they find that climate change is a natural fluctuation? They’ll kill us all’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2066240/Second-leak-climate-emails-Political-giants-weigh-bias-scientists-bowing-financial-pressure-sponsors.html#ixzz1erNmhTua

JPeden
November 26, 2011 4:22 pm

A physicist says:
November 26, 2011 at 12:43 pm
JPeden, anyone who reads the American Institute of Physics account of Roger Revell’s climate-change synthesis in the 1950s will be struck by the fact that the CRU emails are showing us precisely the same methods of science that Revelle and his colleagues practiced back in the 1950s.
Thanks! And here I was thinking that Climate Science’s record of not practicing real science was only really fairly well established over a period of about the past 13 years or so, leading to the production of the TAR with Mann’s Hockey Stick icon, Climate Science’s perfect record of failed predictions, the IPCC’s weighted “method”, etc., and the “Revelations” revealed by the two “Climategates”.
“There are no simple lessons in history … it is human nature that repeats itself, not history. We often learn more about the past from the present, in fact, than the reverse.”
And no, I don’t accept any theory of knowledge that sounds like Hegel’s or Marx’s magical Dialectical Materialism or tries to return science to the good old pre-Enlightenment days of Post Normal Science.

barry
November 26, 2011 4:50 pm

Henry, if you get to Sydney I’ll shout you coffee, and we don’t need to fixate on climate change.

barry
November 26, 2011 5:18 pm

Solomon Green @ here
You describe the output of paleoclimate as if the scientists do no testing of the data, and offer no caveats with their findings. You also seem to imagine that millennial reconstructions have all included the latewood proxies. What about time series derived purely from boreholes, or other proxies, or that didn’t include the MXD data?
Millennial reconstructions are built from a range of data using different methods. Some studies have more or less data overlap, some have none. The preponderance of studies, even if you throw out all the papers Mann was involved with, tends to corroborate the MBH reconstructions. With a small number of exceptions, most papers agree that the NH MWP was probably as warm as the 20th century NH, but likely not as warm as the last decade/s of the 20th century, and that the LIA was pretty cold.
Being familiar with the wider body of literature, it makes me wonder why people are singling out Mann. Why doesn’t Ray Bradley, who co-authored the hockey stick papers, or Hughes, get as much stick? Is their contribution to the so-called ‘fraud’ somehow unimportant? Why fixate on Mann?
And what about the other authors of non-Mannian papers that come up with the same basic conclusions? Why does no one here mention them? Why, in fact, does no one talk about these other papers that basically corroborate the work of Bradley, Hughes, Briffa, Mann?
Could it be no one here is actually interested in understanding the field in general? Do people actually believe that if Mann was utterly discredited, scientific understanding of millennial temperatures would be virtually unchanged? If so, then you’re waging a political battle, and catty emails from the players are just grist to that mill.
(In reply to a comment above, I’m not trying to convince anyone about what the MWP was like, or whether AGW is something to be concerned about. I’m just knocking on the door to see if there are any actual skeptics here. It’s not even worth approaching tertiary issues until people remember what critical thinking really is. Hint: if you are saying things with a lot of certainty, you’re almost certainly not thinking critically)

RockyRoad
November 26, 2011 5:43 pm

barry says:
November 26, 2011 at 5:18 pm

(In reply to a comment above, I’m not trying to convince anyone about what the MWP was like, or whether AGW is something to be concerned about. I’m just knocking on the door to see if there are any actual skeptics here. It’s not even worth approaching tertiary issues until people remember what critical thinking really is. Hint: if you are saying things with a lot of certainty, you’re almost certainly not thinking critically)

Mann is the “standard bearer” of “The Team”, yet he absolutely refuses to divulge corroboration, methodology, or data; indeed, he threatens lawsuits and colludes with UVa like it were a Penn State pedophile investigation.
Need I go deeper into this, or is his odious and offensive behavior answer enough? (One would think a professor working at a public university would have read the rules of disclosure by now but apparently Mann did not, or did not agree to them.)
So yes, we’re all interested in “the field” as you call it, but you present a red herring. Jones, Mann and others hide or lose their work and you complain we’re not interested in it because (of course) we can’t see the data or methodology.
And we’re supposed to take your offer seriously?
Laughable!

crosspatch
November 26, 2011 6:38 pm

Newsflash brought to you by Junior’s Auto Sales (Telephone BR-549) here on KORN Radio:
Newly released emails show that climate scientists privately express serious doubts about the ability to prove global climate change due to CO2 emissions. This comes on top of the recent backing down of Global Warming impacts on such places as Kilimanjaro in Africa and on Himalayan glaciers and the revelation that United Nations IPCC “consensus” was not as widespread as it was earlier purported to be
The climate scientists have expressed such concerns as “they will kill us” if the people are to discover that the observed temperature changes are due to normal natural climate variation in light of the billions of dollars that have been spent globally and the regulations imposed at great inconvenience on the populations of many countries.
It is reported that massive crowds are currently gathering with pitchforks and torches on the grounds of both the US Capitol building and Penn State University demanding all money spent on “global warming” be returned immediately to taxpayers. At Penn State the crowd has brought a set of 17th century stocks and are demanding Michael Mann be turned over to the crowd.

November 26, 2011 6:53 pm

I have made an update on the de Freitas affair, in which I have put the first half of the narrative in order, and added more commentary. I hope that it makes a better read than the original:
http://newzealandclimatechange.wordpress.com/2011/11/27/climategate-2-and-corruption-of-peer-review/
It is the story of a plot by the ‘team’ to get Chris de Freitas sacked for allowing ‘contrary’ articles to be published in journal of Climate Research. In addition to key member of the team being involved, Pachauri is copied in as cc in many of the most outrageous comments. He does nothing to stop his out of control ‘leading scientists’.

Myrrh
November 26, 2011 7:08 pm

Looking for funding Tyndall Centre

http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=0947541692.txt&search=Bank
From: Mike Hulme
To: ???@umist.ac.uk
Subject: Re: industrial and commercial contacts
Date: Mon Jan 10 17:01:32 2000
Simon,
I have talked with Tim O’Riordan and others here today and Tim has a wealth of contacts he is prepared to help with. Four specific ones from Tim are:
– Charlotte Grezo, BP Fuel Options (possibly on the Assessment Panel. She is also on the ESRC Research Priorities Board), but someone Tim can easily talk with. There are others in BP Tim knows too.
– Richard Sykes, Head of Environment Division at Shell International
– Chris Laing, Managing Director, Laing Construction (also maybe someone at Bovis)
– ??, someone high-up in Unilever whose name escapes me.

You can add these to your list and I can ensure that Tim and Simon feed the right material through once finalised.
At 20:30 07/01/00 BST, you wrote:
>dear colleagues
>
>re: List of Industrial and Commercial Contacts to Elicit Support
>from for the Tyndall Centre
>
>This is the list so far.
..
We could probably do with some more names from the financial sector.
>Does anyone know any investment bankers?
>

wayne
November 26, 2011 8:02 pm

I thought somewhere on this thread we should reflect on what has been said by the many people and organizations funding and driving this Global Warming Bus over the cliff, and why:
”A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal.”
Ted Turner,
Founder of CNN and major UN donor

”The prospect of cheap fusion energy is the worst thing that could happen to the planet.”
Jeremy Rifkin,
Greenhouse Crisis Foundation

”Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun.”
Paul Ehrlich,
Professor of Population Studies,
Author: “Population Bomb”, “Ecoscience”

”My three goals would be to reduce human population to about 100 million worldwide, destroy the industrial infrastructure and see wilderness, with it’s full compliment of species, returning throughout the world.”
David Foreman,
co-founder of Earth First!

”The big threat to the planet is people: there are too many, doing too well economically and burning too much oil.”
Sir James Lovelock,
BBC Interview

”We need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination… So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts… Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”
Stephen Schneider,
Stanford Professor of Climatology,
Lead author of many IPCC reports

“Warming fears are the worst scientific scandal in history… When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.”
Dr. Kiminori Itoh, PhD
UN IPCC Japanese Scientist
award-winning environmental physical chemist

”Unless we announce disasters no one will listen.”
Sir John Houghton,
First chairman of the IPCC

”It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true.”
Paul Watson,
Co-founder of Greenpeace

”Childbearing should be a punishable crime against society, unless the parents hold a government license. All potential parents should be required to use contraceptive chemicals, the government issuing antidotes to citizens chosen for childbearing.”
David Brower,
First Executive Director of the Sierra Club

”We’ve got to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.”
Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

”No matter if the science of global warming is all phony… climate change provides the greatest oportinity to bring about justice and equality in the world.”
Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

”The only way to get our society to truly change is to frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe.”
Emeritus Professor Daniel Botkin
”Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”
Maurice Strong,
Founder of the UN Environmental Program

”A massive campaign must be launched to de-develop the United States. De-Development means bringing our economic system into line with the realities of ecology and the world resource situation.”
Paul Ehrlich,
Professor of Population Studies,
Author: “Population Bomb”, “Ecoscience”

”If I were reincarnated I would wish to return to earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels.”
Prince Phillip, Duke of Edinburgh,
husband of Queen Elizabeth II,
Patron of the Patron of the World Wildlife Foundation

”The only hope for the world is to make sure there is not another United States. We can’t let other countries have the same number of cars, the amount of industrialization we have in the US. We have to stop these third World countries right where they are.”
Michael Oppenheimerm
Environmental Defense Fund

”Global Sustainability requires the deliberate quest of poverty, reduced resource consumption and set levels of mortality control.”
Professor Maurice King
”Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.”
Maurice Strong,
Rio Earth Summit

”Complex technology of any sort is an assault on the human dignity. It would be little short of disastrous for us to discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy, because of what we might do with it.”
Amory Lovins,
Rocky Mountain Institute

”I suspect that eradicating small pox was wrong. it played an important part in balancing ecosystems.”
John Davis,
Editor of Earth First! Journal

( These quotes are now easily cut and pasted to email you can sent to friends who might wonder what all of the fuss is about global warming. Not many realize just how deep it reaches. )

crosspatch
November 26, 2011 8:34 pm

Wayne:
I realize how deep it reaches. I live in the San Francisco Bay area. I hear these same threads parroted by people I know every week or so. It is sickening. It is so patronizing. For example: Who votes these people into power? For the most part minorities. They are dependent on EXACTLY the people who have the most children, exactly the ones they would dispose of, to keep them in office. The irony is that if they succeed, they will be kicked out of office because they will have killed off their own supporters. How the African American or Hispanic populations can support these people absolutely stuns me when these people would want those populations dead as the poor minorities are often the ones with the highest reproductive rates.
The “Progressive movement” is the most evil thing I have ever seen in my lifetime.

JPeden
November 26, 2011 8:38 pm

“wayne says:
November 26, 2011 at 8:02 pm”
Thanks for the useful Credos, wayne. This time I am saving them – I’m tempted to try to make up my own to add on, but don’t think I could come anywhere close to replicating theirs.

crosspatch
November 26, 2011 9:26 pm

grep -i “potential reviewers” *
Turns up some interesting stuff as they stack the decks for various things.

crosspatch
November 26, 2011 9:31 pm

5133.txt

On the FOI Act there is a little leaflet we have all been sent. It doesn’t really clarify what we might have to do re programs or data. Like all things in Britain we will only find out when the first person or organization asks. I wouldn’t tell anybody about the FOI Act in Britain. I don’t think UEA really knows
what’s involved.
As you’re no longer an employee I would use this argument if anything comes along. I think it is supposed to mainly apply to issues of personal information – references for jobs etc.

crosspatch
November 26, 2011 9:34 pm

5133.txt , by the way is in 2005

crosspatch
November 26, 2011 9:36 pm

5133.txt is in response to Tom Wigley Re:

I got a brochure on the FOI Act from UEA. Does this mean that, if someone asks for a computer program we have to give it out?? Can you check this for me (and Sarah).

He seems pretty worried that some of his code might be exposed to FOIA.

David Ball
November 26, 2011 9:38 pm

Nicely compiled wayne. Thanks. 30 long years I have watched this debacle unfold. I long for it to be over and logic and reason rule the day.

Anon
November 26, 2011 9:57 pm

[SNIP: Site policy requires a valid e-mail address. Please comply. -REP]

JPeden
November 26, 2011 10:06 pm

barry says:
November 26, 2011 at 5:18 pm
Being familiar with the wider body of literature, it makes me wonder why people are singling out Mann. Why doesn’t Ray Bradley, who co-authored the hockey stick papers, or Hughes, get as much stick? Is their contribution to the so-called ‘fraud’ somehow unimportant? Why fixate on Mann?
McShane and Wyner explain why they fixate on Mann, then present their findings, which I believe you left a little sparse when you quoted them:

Finally, we construct and fit a full probability model for the relation-
ship between the thousand year old proxy database and Northern Hemi-
sphere average temperature, providing appropriate pathwise standard er-
rors which account for parameter uncertainty. While our model offers sup-
port to the conclusion that the 1990s were the warmest decade of the last
millennium, it does not predict temperature as well as expected even in-
sample. The model does much worse on contiguous thirty year time in-
tervals. Thus, we remark in conclusion that natural proxies are severely
limited in their ability to predict average temperatures and temperature
gradients….
Although we assume the reliability of their data for our purposes
here, there still remains a considerable number of outstanding questions
that can only be answered with a free and open inquiry and a great deal of
replication.
Climate scientists have greatly underestimated the uncertainty of proxy-based reconstructions and hence have been overconfident in their models.
We have shown that time dependence in the temperature series is sufficiently strong to permit complex sequences of random numbers to forecast
out-of-sample reasonably well fairly frequently (see, for example, Figure
9). Furthermore, even proxy based models with approximately the same
amount of reconstructive skill (Figures 11, 12 , and 13 ), produce strikingly
dissimilar historical backcasts: some of these look like hockey sticks but
most do not (Figure 14 ).
Natural climate variability is not well understood and is probably quite
large. It is not clear that the proxies currently used to predict temperature
are even predictive of it at the scale of several decades let alone over many
centuries.
Furthermore, the
lower frame of Figure 18 clearly reveals that the proxy model is not at all
able to track the high gradient segment. Consequently, the long flat handle
of the hockey stick is best understood to be a feature of regression and less
a reflection of our knowledge of the truth.
On the one hand, we conclude unequivocally that the evidence for a
”long-handled” hockey stick (where the shaft of the hockey stick extends
to the year 1000 AD) is lacking in the data. The fundamental problem is
that there is a limited amount of proxy data which dates back to 1000 AD;
what is available is weakly predictive of global annual temperature. Our
backcasting methods, which track quite closely the methods applied most
recently in Mann (2008 ) to the same data, are unable to catch the sharp run
up in temperatures recorded in the 1990s, even in-sample.

November 26, 2011 10:30 pm

Why now? Why 2 years later? Is the FOIA avoiding clues to his/her identity. Why hold back the emails? Was the 7zip encryption around when the emails was written? Did it take 2 years to crack?
Was the release of this batch delayed by politics in London. The Whistle blower not wanting to damage the recently elected conservative/lib dem coalition government.
It also crosses my mind that he/she may be releasing things relative to the statute of limitations in various countries and that he/she is eager to take down Jones et al but not eager to see them in jail. Any thoughts on that?
Are any of the emails newer than the first batch?
My hunch with the first batch was that the first FOIA file was Jones’s attempt at a deletion and that he had either:
Created it intending to wipe the hard drive with a magnet but never got to that point when the whistle blower got to it.
Or he ordered someone to wipe it and triggered the leak.
At the time of the police announcement it was announced that all the data was from an old drive. I asked “what else was on that drive”? Now we know.
It looks extremely bad for the investigation of the CRU. They clearly did not ask the key question. “Are there, were there any other emails and how incriminating.”

JPeden
November 26, 2011 11:34 pm

Hmmm, McShane and Wyner sure don’t write very good poetry. I don’t know what happened – just copied it off a notepad paste board, first attempt ever, and it looked ok in the comment box. Could be my computer. It’s been doing a lot of strange things since I got it fixed.

Jimmy Haigh
November 26, 2011 11:34 pm

In preparation for the next batch of over 200,000 e-mails, it might be worth setting up some arrangement where volunteers go through a specific nuber of e-mails so that we don’t all spend time looking over the same ones.
I’m sure there would be loads of volunteers within in the WUWT community so that each of us might only have to study carefully, say, a couple of hundred each or so?

Jessie
November 27, 2011 12:03 am

wayne @ 8.02 pm
Was just posting below and realised your list of quotes, gob smacking!
Jeffrey Sachs
Earth Institute, previously Director and Advisor on UN Millenium Goals (external Advisory Board http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/1006 )
wiki entry: extreme poverty defined as ‘living on less than a $1 dollar a day End of Poverty http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Sachs
Sach’s attack on the Murdoch Press The Murdoch Legacy http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-sachs/the-murdoch-legacy_b_1003016.html
Yet Murdoch supports the One-LapTop-Child program (education such as reading
& writing as a development goal)!!
Here in Australia, the Weekend Australian magazine published a full page ad by BP and their role in reducing petrol sniffing (volatile substance abuse) in central Australian Aboriginal communities. BP states they received an email 10 years ago requesting help from central Australia, with BP responding and developing + rolling out an alternate fuel, OPAL.
BP’s Chairman, Svanberg is I find today also on the Earth Institute’s external Advisory Board.
.
I had the fortune to work with people that eradicated petrol-sniffing in 1995 (16 years ago) in the top end of Australia and also in the part of the Western Desert (geographically). This was achieved by switching fuels and speaking with the cartage companies. The people that initiated this successful eradication of behaviour (sniffing and consequences) and brought about an ensuing work program suffered the most atrocious behaviour from long standing academics and others in the Indigenous industry. Perhaps may one day this will be written up. The success of the program was denied in much of central Australia, where later Senate Inquiries, coroners investigations, front page media (2004, 2006, 2008, 2009) AND continuing hunger, poverty, neglect, suicides, rapes, and homicides continued. OPAL rollout in 2005 est AUS $78.9 MILLION http://waru.org/organisations/npywc/Opal%20Report%20FINAL%2006_02_23.pdf
(AUS$83.6 MILLION Federal govt report tabled 2010)
Working as a researcher it was often wondered where the actual numbers, length of time inhaling of all drugs and quantity inhaled were obtained from in the earlier reports. There were no observational studies in spite of decades of academic research.
BP state ‘a government report states that OPAL has assisted in reducing the incidence of petrol sniffing by up to 94% in affected communities.
When industry, particularly mining, in Australia, is forced to respond to poor research promulgated by the govt, where many of these govt employees previously did their utmost over years and years to undermine these industries, and neglected to conduct science, many wonder what has become of our nation and her governance. And the children and teenagers who lost their lives in this post modern science world.

crosspatch
November 27, 2011 12:13 am

I wonder why 0009.txt is missing.

crosspatch
November 27, 2011 12:29 am

Looking at 0015.txt I find something that I take as on the border of ridiculous:

Apparently from:
Dr S J Allen, Research Co-ordinator
Centre for the study of Environmental Change and Sustainability (CECS)
University of Edinburgh
It has been proposed that the assimilation of CO2 by vegetation will reach saturation within the foreseeable future as atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise and that, conversely, increase in temperature will lead to open-ended increase in respiration by soil
heterotrophs, so that at some point in the not too distant future, CO2 efflux will come to exceed CO2 influx.
This far-reaching assumption derives from global models that lack a consideration of acclimation, feed backs and biological constraints acting on these processes. This proposition will be critically
evaluated using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM’s) that include appropriate feed backs derived from new data that are becoming available from on-going experiments in the UK and elsewhere. This core project will be executed over two years by a research fellow at the
University of Edinburgh, under the supervision of Professor Paul Jarvis, FRS. The project will involve close collaboration with: the Max Planck Institut fur Biogeochemie (Prof I Colin Prentice) and the
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (Dr Wolfgang Cramer) where fully operational DGVMs are in use; the Dept of Production Ecology, University of Uppsala (Prof Sune Linder), currently conducting soil warming experiments in northern Sweden.

Now, this all seems pretty silly considering that about 600-and some thousand years ago there was an interglacial that was longer and warmer than this one where we had CO2 levels higher than today. Also, over most of Earth’s history, CO2 levels have been MUCH higher than they are today. We are STILL at near historically low atmospheric CO2 levels even with the amount of CO2 humans are adding to the atmosphere.
We should be able to find out how Earth responded in the past when temperatures and CO2 levels were near today’s levels and even higher. The secret to what is going to happen is probably recorded in the past. The part that seems ridiculous to me is that some scientists are apparently treating today’s conditions as if they are somehow unique in the history of the planet. They aren’t.
If you want to know how things are going to respond, go back to when we had similar conditions and see how they responded then. At the end of the glacial before that longest interglacial, CO2 levels would have been at or below today’s levels. As the interglacial progressed and things warmed up, CO2 would have gone higher than it is today. How did things react? What do we find in the fossil record from that time period? I mean, come ON, this is not a unique set of circumstances here. We (meaning the planet) have been here before.
This email makes it sound like we go into some sort of CO2 runaway situation and we know full well that apparently didn’t happen in the past.

MangoChutney
November 27, 2011 3:01 am

4469:
“Dear All,
The link below has been passed along to me by a colleague (whose name has been expunged
to protect his identity):”
…………………………………….
” Mike,
This seems to be the HTML version of McIntyre’s paper. (I got this
unsolicited from Gene Avrett, Soon & Baliunas’s boss at Harvard.)
———————- Original Message ———————–
From: “Eugene H. Avrett”
To:
Date: Mon, 27 Oct 2003 12:09:22 -0500
Subject: article in Energy and Environment
—-
Dear ,
You may be interested in the article by McIntyre and McKitrick
just published in Energy and Environment which questions the
validity of the Mann et al. (1998) study that provided the basis
for the claim that 20th century warming is unprecedented.
See [2]http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/trc.html.
Yours sincerely,
Gene Avrett”
Protecting identity? Why?

A physicist
November 27, 2011 5:31 am

[snip]

John Whitman
November 27, 2011 6:24 am

crosspatch says:
November 27, 2011 at 12:13 am
I wonder why 0009.txt is missing.

—————
crosspatch,
It is being held back by ‘we’ within the 220,000 emails locked up by a passphrase in the 7zip file?
John

Blade
November 27, 2011 6:49 am

wayne [November 26, 2011 at 8:02 pm] says:
“… [quotes] …”

Bravo Wayne, great work. This is what is truly at the core of this mess – a pack of despicable eco-zealots, really eco-Nazi’s as proven by their own words. Yes, it is true that not all climate scientologists are also of this Malthusian group, but the point is that they refuse to condemn their outrageous viewpoints and most likely approve of most or all of their insanity.
So we are left with a fusion of the Malthusians (Ehrlich, Strong, etc) with the progressive leftist do-gooder socialist contingent of the Team and their sycophants. It is an unholy cabal.
I highly suggest that any real scientist left in the AGW cause, that does not subscribe to these viewpoints get out now. And if you have the goods on this pack of rats there is an unbelievable opportunity here for you to save the Scientific Method and perhaps Science itself. You will be lauded and even more famous than you could ever dream. But that matters far less than fixing this widespread corruption.

barry
November 27, 2011 7:05 am

wayne @ here
lists a bunch of quotes, and provides no links to the full tract each comes from. It is wonderful to see critical thinkers lining up to demand links for these quotes,and insist that on the full context to understand them.
Why it seems like only yesterday a bunch of snippets was accepted with no investigation of their origins, what the context was, and with people going nuts over whatever was dropped into the comments here.
Thank goodness that sort of mindless cheer-leading is a thing of the past. It makes me believe that people have remembered what it means to be skeptical.

barry
November 27, 2011 7:17 am

JPeden,
Juckes, Kaufman, D’Arrigo, Moberg, and Huang (who used no tree-ring proxies at all), and their co-authors, separately conclude that the late 20th century was likely warmer than the MWP. None of these papers involved Mann. Why fixate on him? The science is what it is, with Mann or without. What do people hope to achieve here?
McShane and Wyner gave their best estimates on MWP/present as percentage probabilities. They join a long line of authors, including the ones we like to demonise, who explain the shortcomings with the data.
I guess not many people have read the studies, just blog posts about them. There’s a big disconnect between what the studies say, and what many people seem to think they say.

John Whitman
November 27, 2011 7:23 am

Based on climategate releases 1.0 & 2.0, of the core ‘Team’ of AR4 gamers of WG1, it looks to me that only Tim Osborn remains active in AR5 on WG1.
Is that correct or have I missed other members of the AR4 WG1 core ‘Team’ who remain active in AR5 WG1? I would appreciate some help identifying holdovers of the ‘Team’ from WG1 AR4 to AR5. Thanks in advance.
It is those WG1 AR4 ‘Team’ members that remain active in WG1 AR5 that need to be evaluated wrt IPCC process deviations, gatekeeping and intentional bias.
John

JPeden
November 27, 2011 7:36 am

barry says:
November 27, 2011 at 7:05 am
wayne @ here
lists a bunch of quotes, and provides no links to the full tract each comes from. It is wonderful to see critical thinkers lining up to demand links for these quotes,and insist that on the full context to understand them.

Oh, we understand them. Some of us have followed some of those people quoted for some time, including also Karl Marx and Barack Obama. Or do we need more time to “understand” the Islamofascists, too?
You just don’t want to recognize your soul bros..

David Ball
November 27, 2011 8:23 am

barry is a lemming. Unfortunately, barry, these people you defend will not be going over the cliff with you. Population reduction and “necessarily have to crash the industrialized nations” (paraphrasing) is clearly what they are talking about. Do you not see that they have the resources to not be effected by the crash they want to bring about. They want everyone off “their planet”. It is beyond frightening. You are defending the indefensible.
I know that the lemming thing was staged, but the analogy is great!
barry talks about critical thinking and being skeptical but shows that he is neither.

G. Karst
November 27, 2011 8:46 am

What if they find that climate change is a natural fluctuation? They’ll kill us all

This question is not framed correctly. It should be phrased:

When they find that climate change is a natural fluctuation? They’ll kill us all

This makes the phrase predictive and therefore falsifiable. Now we need to know, whether it is skillful or not. GK

A physicist
November 27, 2011 9:00 am

Myrrh says: Looking for funding Tyndall Centre:

(emails): I have talked with Tim O’Riordan and others here today and Tim has a wealth of contacts he is prepared to help with … someone high-up in Unilever whose name escapes me.

In this regard I’m happy to assist the WUWT’s conspiracy-hunters: Unilever Ventures is a major investor in Voltea Technologies, whose corporate objective is to “help people and businesses access clean, potable water while reducing environmental impact.”
Given that Unilever/Voltea have (1) solid understanding of math, science, and technology, and (2) keen appreciation of the business opportunities associated to the accelerating reality of AGW … well … its plain good business for Unilever’s businesses to support the Tyndall Centre’s science.
Voltea’s web site is hightly recommended: the story of a good, solid, job-creating venture.

November 27, 2011 9:26 am

Henry@barry
there was a great seaman called willem barentz who was sure in the 16th century that there was a way up north to the other side of the world.
do you think he would have risked his life (and he lost it !) unless he was sure from his “history” lessons that indeed there was a way?
I’ve been in arctic Norway not so long ago
it is teeming with life everywhere, the water is just coming from everywhere.
So I ask you:
what is wrong with more warming,
even if man did cause it, which they don’t,
as my tables will clearly tell you/
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
I’m busy with the blue area in China, and guess what I am finding?

Another Gareth
November 27, 2011 10:25 am

crosspatch said: “I wonder why 0009.txt is missing.”
You comment intrigued me enough to see what others were not there. There are many missing files. 56 numbers are absent. 57 if you include the chance of there ever being 0000.txt. All within the first 200 txt files.
No idea whether it is significant or some kind of clue or joke or just an artifact of deciding to delete some emails they didn’t want to publish.

wobble
November 27, 2011 10:54 am

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 9:00 am
Unilever Ventures is a major investor in Voltea Technologies, whose corporate objective is to “help people and businesses access clean, potable water while reducing environmental impact.”

Voltea’s web site is hightly recommended: the story of a good, solid, job-creating venture.

How is this a story of a job-creating venture??
Membrane capacitive deionization is really only efficient for desalinating brackish water (1,000-5,000 ppm TDS). It’s also not very effective / efficient at removing enough salt to make the water completely potable since it’s not efficient at removing salts to the point of having the water considered potable.
I don’t see any evidence that this company has created anything other than researchers. This is evidenced by the fact that they only appear to be half-heartedly searching for a part-time sales person.
A real physicist would know that a not all technologies can be successfully commercialized by cost effectively addressing real world applications.

Richard Sharpe
November 27, 2011 11:05 am

Another Gareth says on November 27, 2011 at 10:25 am

crosspatch said: “I wonder why 0009.txt is missing.”
You comment intrigued me enough to see what others were not there. There are many missing files. 56 numbers are absent. 57 if you include the chance of there ever being 0000.txt. All within the first 200 txt files.
No idea whether it is significant or some kind of clue or joke or just an artifact of deciding to delete some emails they didn’t want to publish.

If you obtain embarrassing photographs (of any kind) of politicians or powerful figures, and you release them in an encrypted form but withhold the key, at what point is this legally considered blackmail?
Of course, if the targets decide not to pursue legal remedy, there is no problem. Given, however, that some of the possible targets have access to vast resources, one can imagine other remedies.

JPeden
November 27, 2011 11:06 am

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 9:00 am
Myrrh says: Looking for funding Tyndall Centre:
“(emails): I have talked with Tim O’Riordan and others here today and Tim has a wealth of contacts he is prepared to help with … someone high-up in Unilever whose name escapes me.”
In this regard I’m happy to assist the WUWT’s conspiracy-hunters: Unilever Ventures is a major investor in Voltea Technologies, whose corporate objective is to “help people and businesses access clean, potable water while reducing environmental impact.”
Given that Unilever/Voltea have (1) solid understanding of math, science, and technology, and (2) keen appreciation of the business opportunities associated to the accelerating reality of AGW … well … its plain good business for Unilever’s businesses to support the Tyndall Centre’s science.

Yes, Unilever presumably thinks Voltea is a good investment. But Unilever invests in a whole lot of things, and staying in business is its rightful job. That’s one reason why Unilever invests in a whole lot of things. At which point, however, Unilever’s approach is somewhat different from Jeffery Immelt’s extreme cozy-up approach at GE as to its, er, “emphasis”, which perhaps makes for the radical difference in the performance of each respective stock?
Unilever is near its 10 yr. high, while GE is down about 62% from its 10 yr. high, perhaps having bet a little too much on manufacturing Windmill turbines, but wisely moving its imaging division to China, of course as per Obama’s enlightened policies.
At any rate, reasoning from a particular company, Voltea, to a general one, Unilever, then even further on to a separate particular business, Tyndall, is a bit fraught with fallacy, A physicist. In other words, you FAIL once again.
Or are you investing in Tyndall and genuine fake crusty old Sea Salt “from the Arctic!”?

Tucci78
November 27, 2011 11:08 am

Anent the comment by crosspatch (“I wonder why 0009.txt is missing”), at 10:25 AM on 27 November we read Another Gareth writing:

There are many missing files. 56 numbers are absent. 57 if you include the chance of there ever being 0000.txt. All within the first 200 txt files.
No idea whether it is significant or some kind of clue or joke or just an artifact of deciding to delete some emails they didn’t want to publish.

Or, of course, that those “56 numbers…57 if you include the chance of there ever being 0000.txt” are packed into the encrypted all.7z portion of the FOIA2011.zip archive.
crosspatch‘s “0009.txt” file may well be among the C.R.U. correspondents’ machinations which the FOIA people don’t want to publish yet.
The more likely premise is one of giving the AGW scoundrels enough rope with which to hang themselves.

Tucci78
November 27, 2011 11:30 am

At 11:05 AM on 27 November, Richard Sharpe asks:

If you obtain embarrassing photographs (of any kind) of politicians or powerful figures, and you release them in an encrypted form but withhold the key, at what point is this legally considered blackmail?

Why, at the moment when those “politicians or powerful figures” are solicited for cash payment or other arguably valuable consideration, of course. No such solicitation, no “blackmail.”
Merely waiting until the “politicians or powerful figures” do something really stupid and then lifting the lid on those “embarrassing photographs” to screw ’em isn’t “blackmail” of any kind.
It’s merely the optimal exploitation of tactical opportunity against an enemy.
We’re not talking criminal code here, Mr. Sharpe, but rather the laws of war.

Thomas
November 27, 2011 11:45 am

Saw this tool to search the Climategate 1.0 and 2.0 emails on Morano’s website.Thought it might be helpful to the readers although I haven’t tried it yet.
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/11/hot-new-search-tool-for-climategate-i-and-ii-combined/
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php

A physicist
November 27, 2011 11:59 am

A physicist says: “Given that Unilever/Voltea have (1) solid understanding of math, science, and technology, and (2) keen appreciation of the business opportunities associated to the accelerating reality of AGW … well … its plain good business for Unilever’s businesses to support the Tyndall Centre’s science.”

wobble says: How is this a story of a job-creating venture??
Membrane capacitive deionization is really only efficient for desalinating brackish water (1,000-5,000 ppm TDS). It’s also not very effective / efficient at removing enough salt to make the water completely potable since it’s not efficient at removing salts to the point of having the water considered potable.
I don’t see any evidence that this company has created anything other than researchers. This is evidenced by the fact that they only appear to be half-heartedly searching for a part-time sales person.
A real physicist would know that not all technologies can be successfully commercialized by cost effectively addressing real world applications.

Wobble, your interest in AGW-related technologies is commendable! Google Patents will assure you that new desalination-related US patents are being issued about once every 16 hours … and a good overview is provided by the recent Science magazine survey by Elimelech and Phillip titled “The future of seawater desalination: energy, technology, and the environment” (2011). According to my reading of that literature and those patents (separative technologies being a special interest of mine), Volteas’ business plan is reasonably far-sighted and technically sound.
The larger point is that nowadays no business CEO and no business investor ignores the accelerating reality of AGW, the business implications of that acceleration, or the foundations in math, science and engineering of our appreciation of that reality.
That’s the practical reason why CEOs think its far smarter to be talking with the CRU scientists than speaking against them.

Richard Sharpe
November 27, 2011 12:11 pm

A physicist (surely, he/she is no such animal) makes a proof by assertion:

The larger point is that nowadays no business CEO and no business investor ignores the accelerating reality of AGW, the business implications of that acceleration, or the foundations in math, science and engineering of our appreciation of that reality.
That’s the practical reason why CEOs think its far smarter to be talking with the CRU scientists than speaking against them.

Can you provide us with links to those CEOs who think it is smarter to be talking with the so-called CRU scientists.

JPeden
November 27, 2011 12:31 pm

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 11:59 am
“The larger point is that nowadays no business CEO and no business investor ignores the accelerating reality of AGW Government Money and Power, the business implications of that acceleration, or the foundations in math, science and engineering a massive Climate Science Propaganda Operation of our appreciation of that genuine fake perception is reality!, er, reality.”
Fixed and another FAIL for you, A physicist. But then the Head Start Model for Social Justice never was much on edjumacation and actually judging reality…oops, then again, there’s certainly no need for me to tell that to A physicist Climate Scientist like you!

A physicist
November 27, 2011 12:48 pm

Richard Sharpe requests: Can you provide us with links to those CEOs who think it is smarter to be talking with the so-called CRU scientists.

Myrrh’s post was my starting point, Richard.
As a follow-on, one concrete suggestion is to trace-back the corporate threads leading to the J Craig Venter Institute’s facility named “JCVI La Jolla: Sustainable Laboratory Facility” (Google it) — it’s a fascinating saga, and needless to say, Craig Venter himself has show a considerable talent for turning fundamental science into prosperous enterprises.
On the other hand, there’s no such thing as “transparency” when it comes to business plans, yah know (Venter’s enterprises are far more transparent than most). That’s why a concrete suggestion is to Google-search the patent literature for keywords relating to climate change (start with “climate change” itself == 2,730 hits). Patents are neither easy to write not cheap to file; the patent literature thus reflects a hard-nosed appreciation by CEOs that AGW is real, and serious … and therefore, a tremendous global business opportunity.

Myrrh
November 27, 2011 1:20 pm

The Hokey Schtick:
“Best to ignore Woijcek. All he seems to want to do is deflect us into
>responding.”
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
Can’t have have that.. 🙂 Here’s the gist of Wojick on Broecker:
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=1353.txt&search=Bank

“Broecker acknowledges that the proxy evidence is necessarily somewhat murky”, but his conclusion is that “climatic conditions have oscillated steadily over the past 100,000 years, with an average period close to 1500 years… The swing from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age was the penultimate of these oscillations.” The implication being that some, if not all, of the present warming is the natural swing out of the Little Ice Age, and that Mann et al, as well as the IPCC, are mistaken.”
Dr. David E. Wojick
President
Climatechangedebate.org

Bill H
November 27, 2011 1:27 pm

OK… FOIA file link is now inactive.
“server not found”
anyone got a good link?

wobble
November 27, 2011 1:36 pm

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 11:59 am
According to my reading of that literature and those patents (separative technologies being a special interest of mine), Volteas’ business plan is reasonably far-sighted and technically sound.

Well, your reading of that literature and those patents are apparently worthless. This technology has been tested extensively in the recent past – it doesn’t matter what you think based on reading patents.

The larger point is that nowadays no business CEO and no business investor ignores the accelerating reality of AGW, the business implications of that acceleration, or the foundations in math, science and engineering of our appreciation of that reality.

Many business CEO’s and inventors are receiving funding for AGW related activities/products merely because investors aren’t smart enough to know the difference. The reality is that these products won’t be commercially viable and the company’s will eventually fail. Beacon and Solyndra are just the tip of the iceberg.

That’s the practical reason why CEOs think its far smarter to be talking with the CRU scientists than speaking against them.

CEO’s can be just as stupid as CRU scientists.

wobble
November 27, 2011 1:44 pm

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Patents are neither easy to write nor cheap to file; the patent literature thus reflects a hard-nosed appreciation by CEOs that AGW is real, and serious … and therefore, a tremendous global business opportunity.
Everybody on this website knows that an excessive amount of capital is being wasted due to unwarranted global warming concerns.
No real business opportunity exists – unless you’re like most alarmists and believe that losing 100% of institutions’ and taxpayers’ money can be considered a “business opportunity.”

David Ball
November 27, 2011 2:13 pm

wobble says:
November 27, 2011 at 1:44 pm
My guess would be that “a (fake) physicist” stands to benefit greatly from an imaginary climate crisis. Correct me if I am wrong. Be honest.

November 27, 2011 2:32 pm

I want to share something I came across in the “documents” file of the FOIA2011 release. (simply titled africa.doc)
This is a draft document for a special IPCC report titled “The Regional Impacts of Climate Change” and it focuses on Africa.
Here is a section cut n pasted from the above link..

Several comprehensive descriptions of the climates of Africa exist, most notably those of Thomson (1965) and Griffiths (1972). Surveys of African rainfall have been carried out by Newell et al. (1972), Kraus (1977), Klaus (1978), Tyson (1986), and Nicholson (1994b). These researchers agree that summer rainfall maxima, which are dominant over most of Africa, are controlled primarily by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Over land, the ITCZ tends to follow the seasonal march of the sun and oscillates between the fringes of the Sahara in boreal summer and the northern Kalahari desert in the austral summer. The latitude zones of these arid and semi-arid deserts demarcate the tropics from the subtropics. Rainfall in the subtropics is modulated by mid-latitude storms, which may be displaced Equator-ward in winter. Further modification of these broad patterns is provided by natural features such as lakes and mountains, and by the influence of ocean currents. The poleward extremes of the continent have extratropical influences associated with mid-latitude synoptic disturbances, resulting in significant winter rainfall (Griffiths, 1972).

Anyone reading the above would come away with a conclusion that we have a comprehensive description of the African climate, and that several notable experts agree.
However, from the FOIA2011 documents file, we get a glimpse into the ‘editing’ that takes place.
Below is a long paragraph, written by the contributing authors, but deleted by an editor. (my bolding)

A complete analysis of the climate, hence climatology, of Africa is difficult to achieve due to several factors. Historically, except from the mediterranean belt and Eastern and Southern Africa, where scientific weather observations have longer and relatively consistent and homogeneous records, most meteorological stations on the continent emerged during and after the Second World War (Thomson, 1965). Despite this increase in the number of stations, the network was designed primarily for aviation purposes with little regard to agriculture and other specialised sectors. In addition, vast areas are remote, inhabitable, lack suitable accommodation, water and food for observers, close at night due to poor communications and finance of staff. Due to limited national financial resources, more often than not, the location of a weather station was determined by the existence of radio and other telecommunication facilities. Consequently, the data bases have remained relatively small and their quality highly questionable, to enable necessary climatological descriptions, on a geographical basis, to be made especially in, monitoring the climatic variability, defining the fringes of semi-arid regions bordering deserts for addressing the issue of desertification, (WMO, 1993). Direct and indirect remote sensing (radar and satellite) data are not commonly used in most of the continent, because of the prohibitive cost of the equipment.

Anyone reading the above would come away with a conclusion that we just don’t have enough knowledge about the African Climate.
Who would change such an important message of a special IPCC report?
The editor of the above was one Richard H Moss, who deleted the above paragraph on 9/7/1997 at 10:32pm
Who is Richard H Moss? a google of his name reveals the following ugly truth.
About Richard Moss: (boldings mine)

Meet Richard
Richard has a passion for the environment that began long before he joined WWF. From turning his mother’s kitchen into an environmental research lab as a teen to being a member of the 2007 Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) team, Richard brings over 20 years of experience to WWF. Richard is at the forefront of WWF’s efforts to develop conservation plans that account for our changing climate and contribute to rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. He ensures that the best science and information is used in WWF’s planning, and that solutions to climate change are a global priority.

So here we have a WWF activist, working for the “Gold Standard of Climate science”; the IPCC, who is supposed to “ensures that the best science and information is used” but in fact deletes inconvenient facts that might water down “The Message” that this activist wishes to promote.
I wonder, as some of you may, how would it be if “activists” working for the fossil fuel industry had had of infiltrated the IPCC and had written/edited much of its reports?

November 27, 2011 2:54 pm
Tucci78
November 27, 2011 3:35 pm

At 2:54 PM on 27 November, guscost writes:

Enough spectating…

…and provides a link to his Web page entry titled “Celebrity Science,” in which we find a quotation drawn from Michael Crichton’s 2003 Caltech Michelin Lecture “Aliens Cause Global Warming.”
Having drawn on that source myself repeatedly – with specific reference to Dr. Crichton’s discussion of puerperal sepsis – and having been received with dead-from-the-neck-up warmista dismissal of Dr. Crichton as merely a “novelist,” I would encourage all reading here (and on Mr. Costa‘s blog) to remember that Michael Crichton was a physician, though he apparently found a better way to get himself a living than by way of the practice of medicine.
I’d sure as hell rather deal with publishers and book critics than with HMO’s and HCFA (now “CMS”) myself.
Lessons from our History of Medicine courses in the first year of med school about the failures of “the consensus” in matters such as childbed fever and (more recently) the role of H. pylori in the pathogenesis of peptic ulcers tend reliably to arm those of us in the sawbones racket with a hellacious suspicion of “everybody says” conventional wisdom unexamined and unbacked by scrupulous and methodologically sound objective examination of the facts.
Over the past decade and more, we’ve even gone so far as to develop and support evidence-based medicine (EBM) and patient-oriented evidence that matters (POEM) approaches to diagnosis and treatment.
I don’t know any professional colleagues of mine who will admit to having been suckered by this “man-made global warming” bullpuckey.
Nice comments, Mr. Cost, especially since your statement to the effect that you’re “slightly limiting [your] options for, ahem, ‘graduate education’ by taking such a confrontational tone” implies that you’re an undergraduate right now, and therefore at the mercy of the left-“Liberal” professoriate.

November 27, 2011 4:12 pm

It might be worthwhile reviewing last January’s whitewash of Michael Mann. With this new email dump it appears that he lied to the committees. Mann was asked:

I. Did you engage in, or participate in, directly or indirectly, any actions with the intent to suppress or falsify data?
2. Did you engage in, or participate in, directly or indirectly, any actions with the intent to delete, conceal or otherwise destroy emails, information and/or data, related to AR4,as suggested by Phil Jones?
3. Did you engage in, or participate in, directly or indirectly, any misuse of privileged or confidential information available to you in your capacity as an academic scholar?
4. Did you engage in, or participate in, directly or indirectly, any actions that seriously deviated from accepted practices within the academic community for proposing, conducting, or reporting research, or other scholarly activities?

The first three questions were dismissed out of hand by the first committee. No opposing witness was even allowed to be present, much less comment for the record.
The 4th question was referred to another “faculty peer” committee, which duly whitewashed it. A scientific skeptic was questioned by the committee; Prof Richard Lindzen. When Dr Lindzen was informed by the committee that the first three allegations against Dr. Mann were dismissed at the inquiry stage of the process, Dr. Lindzen’s verbatim response was: “It’s thoroughly amazing. I mean, these are issues that he explicitly stated in the emails. I’m wondering what’s going on?”
The committee asked Dr Lindzen what the standard accepted practice was for sharing information. Dr. Lindzen stated, “With respect to sharing data, the general practice is to have it available.” Dr Lindzen said that if someone asked for his code and data it was his practice to provide it. Dr. Lindzen was asked whether he would have issues with people running into compatibility issues or compilation issues. He responded by saying that even if people “screw it up” or if you have reservations about sharing codes, “If somebody asks you how did you get this, you really should let them know.” Dr. Lindzen stated that prior to publication, scientists may have a variety of reasons to keep things confidential, but “after publication there’s an obligation to explain exactly how you got them, especially if they’re controversial.”
Mann testified that he had never falsified any data, nor had he had ever manipulated data to serve a given predetermined outcome, nor had he ever used inappropriate influence in reviewing papers by other scientists who disagreed with the conclusions of his science, nor had he ever deleted emails at the behest of any other scientist, specifically including Dr. Phil Jones, nor had he ever withheld data with the intention of obstructing science. Mann stated that he never engaged in activities or behaviors that were inconsistent with accepted academic practices.
Despite Prof Richard Lindzen’s rebuttal statement of accepted academic practices, the committee unanimously exonerated Mann. No opposing party had the opportunity to question Mann during the sham investigation. The committee report highlighted in yellow that Mann’s “…level of success in proposing research, and obtaining funding to conduct it clearly places Dr. Mann among the most respected scientists in his field. Such success would not have been possible had he not met or exceeded the highest standards of his profession for proposing research.”
What does obtaining funding have to do with an investigation into scientific misconduct?
Mann’s recent coup of getting a $1.8 million grant to study mosquitoes [among many millions in his other grants] is of course the reason every university and affiliate bends over backward to “exonerate” Mann: he brings in the payola. Regular folks might wonder why a biologist or an epidemiologist wasn’t awarded a grant to study mosquitos. The answer is that it shows what can happen when someone advances the climate alarmist narrative.
With these new emails it is clear that Michael Mann lied to the inquiry and investigation committees. The only way to get the truth is with an adversarial setting with both parties having the right to call and cross examine witnesses under oath. Mann’s ‘exonerations’ were simply official coverups.

A physicist
November 27, 2011 4:13 pm

Tucci78 says: I don’t know any professional colleagues of mine who will admit to having been suckered by this “man-made global warming” bullpuckey.

Lol … Tucci78, just for the record, ain’t Craig Venter a pretty darn prominent MD/PhD who’s one of those “suckers”? … 😉 😉 😉
Hmmm … Venter’s a physician, a scientist, *and* a businessman … heck, those stupid CEO’s at ExxonMobil just invested $600M in Venter’s carbon-neutral energy startup Synthetic Genomics.
The point being that perhaps folks shouldn’t take pronouncements like Tucci78’s too seriously … unless they want to miss some fabulous enterprise opportunities. … 😉 😉 😉
By the way, Venter’s autobiography A Life Decoded is recommended reading for anyone who wants to learn more about how the intersection of medicine, science, business, and technology really works. That intersection is one lively place!

Theo Goodwin
November 27, 2011 4:33 pm

barry says:
November 26, 2011 at 5:18 pm
Solomon Green @ here
“You describe the output of paleoclimate as if the scientists do no testing of the data, and offer no caveats with their findings. You also seem to imagine that millennial reconstructions have all included the latewood proxies. What about time series derived purely from boreholes, or other proxies, or that didn’t include the MXD data?
Millennial reconstructions are built from a range of data using different methods. Some studies have more or less data overlap, some have none. The preponderance of studies, even if you throw out all the papers Mann was involved with, tends to corroborate the MBH reconstructions. With a small number of exceptions, most papers agree that the NH MWP was probably as warm as the 20th century NH, but likely not as warm as the last decade/s of the 20th century, and that the LIA was pretty cold.”
The clearest example is “hiding the decline.” To this day, no one has done the empirical research necessary to explain why the tree rings declined in size after 1960. That empirical research must yield reasonably well confirmed physical hypotheses that can be used to explain and predict changes in tree ring growth caused by environmental changes over periods of at least a millenium (because that is the time period that Mikey used). The same must be done for all specialties within paleoclimatology. It has not been done. Not one of these people has the instincts of a genuine scientist or an understanding of scientific method, as Professor Daly explained to them in emails that are now available in Climategate 2.
As regards the preponderance of studies, any size collection of data series that has no empirical grounding whatsoever is just as worthless as each of the series taken individually. The empirical work is what must be done.

Tucci78
November 27, 2011 4:34 pm

After I’d written that I don’t know any professional colleagues of mine who will admit to having been suckered by this “man-made global warming” bullpuckey (because were I to be so appraised, I’d sure as hell have to consider dropping such an idiot from my referral base, and maybe looking into whatever actions have been undertaken by hospital Quality Assurance committees wherever he’s got staff privileges), we’ve got this friggin’ warmista dork styling himself “A physicist” at 4:13 PM on 27 November puking up something about:

…Craig Venter a pretty darn prominent MD/PhD who’s one of those “suckers”? …

…and then trying like the fumblenuts he is to shovel in “emoticons” by typing: “;) 😉 ;)”
Gawd, los warmistas really do have a helluva “hire the handicapped” policy, don’t they? Our “A physicist” dickless wonder goes on to characterize Venter as:

…a physician, a scientist, *and* a businessman … heck, those stupid CEO’s at ExxonMobil just invested $600M in Venter’s carbon-neutral energy startup Synthetic Genomics.

Well, if nothing else, it’s a comfort in this indication that Venter’s not actually a practicing physician. Just another crook taking advantage of government thuggery to suck the taxpaying public dry. Hippocrates forbid that there should ever be any real, live patients depending upon Dr. Venter’s moral and professional integrity for their well-being.
And – of course – this “A physicist” cement-head shoveld in yet more “emoticon” idiocy (” 😉 😉 ;)”).
Does this blithering dolt understand the meaning of the words “professional colleagues of mine” (emphasis on the word “mine,” which connotes physicians and surgeons of my personal acquaintance and experience), or is he just determined to blow gas for no purpose other than his own coprophilic self-satisfaction?

Theo Goodwin
November 27, 2011 4:39 pm

Solomon Green says:
November 26, 2011 at 10:46 am
Extremely well said. But I implore you, Sir, use more of plain speech so that your readers can find your conclusion.

November 27, 2011 4:54 pm

Solomon Green doesn’t fool me. I know what causes rising temps:☺☺☺

Tucci78
November 27, 2011 4:58 pm

Hm. Went to Wiki-bloody-pedia and looked up Craig Venter to discover that he’s not a physician after all. Having enlisted in the U.S. Navy when he was drafted during the Vietnam War, Venter is described as having served “in the intensive-care ward of a field hospital,” and as having “attempted to commit suicide by swimming out to sea, but changed his mind more than a mile out.”
“Being confronted with wounded, maimed, and dying soldiers on a daily basis” (sez Wiki-bloody-pediat) “instilled in him a desire to study medicine — although he later switched to biomedical research.”
So insofar as direct patient care experience is concerned, Venter was (perhaps) a Hospital Corpsman. If that.
If there’s evidence that Venter is one of los warmistas, there’s no indication in open-source information online. He seems simply to be focused on the use of synthetic microorganisms to produce “biofuel” feedstocks, in which pursuit I wish him lotsa luck. If it works, it might put an end to the “fuel ethanol” boondoggle and restore agricultural land and fertilizers and machinery and expertise to the production of food instead of wasteful, inefficient, odious, government-subsidized corn-derived ethyl alcohol.
In which case, I’m pretty sure that both warmistas like this “A physicist” putz and the management of ConAgra and Archer Daniels Midland are gonna wish that Venter had kept on swimming back there in Vietnam.

vigilantfish
November 27, 2011 5:04 pm

Baa Humbug says:
November 27, 2011 at 2:32 pm
Whoaa! Nice catch. Talk about a ‘fine tooth comb’ examination!

A physicist
November 27, 2011 5:06 pm

Tucci78 says: After I’d written that I don’t know any professional colleagues of mine who will admit to having been suckered by this “man-made global warming” bullpuckey (because were I to be so appraised, I’d sure as hell have to consider dropping such an idiot from my referral base, and maybe looking into whatever actions have been undertaken by hospital Quality Assurance committees wherever he’s got staff privileges)

Tucci78, a recent lead editorial in The British Medical Journal (BMJ) titled “Climate change, ill health, and conflict” presents an analysis of the medical consequences of climate-change whose methods, conclusions, and dignity of expression all are opposite to yours.
WUWT reads are encouraged to compare the skeptical arguments of Tucci78’s post with those of the BMJ editorial and decide for themselves.

Anon
November 27, 2011 5:22 pm

1. wayne, November 26, 2011 at 8:02 pm, thanks for your in-depth analyse of EVIL!!! within the Global Warming Hoax/Climategate 2.0, whether it´s from Science, Environmentalism, Politics, Academia, Media, et cetera, IT IS EXTREMELY DISTURBING AND INSANE. (Climate change is a natural fluctuation.)
2. Man Made Global Warming Is Not Real, Michael Mann´s Hockey Stick Curve Is Debunked by S. McIntyre, and R. McKitrick in 2003!!!
http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2005/09/mcintyre.mckitrick.2003.pdf
http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/hockey_stick/hockeystick01.html
SAY NO TO GLOBAL WARMING HOAX
SAY NO TO JUNK SCIENCE
3. Restore The Scientific Method!!!
http://climateconference.heartland.org/

Theo Goodwin
November 27, 2011 5:29 pm

barry says:
November 26, 2011 at 7:18 am
“On the divergence issue, it is NOT an ‘inescapable conclusion’ that the data is ‘useless’, but that outcome is a strong possibility that must be explored. Most data is imperfect, but that doesn’t mean they are useless. Your comments suggests more about your preferences than your ability to weigh these issues coolly.”
You are aware that they never explored it, right? To this day it has not been explored. Climategaters are averse to empirical research and the genuine physical hypotheses that it can produce.

November 27, 2011 5:37 pm

Tucci78:
Luckily I’m finished with formal school for now and employed, but thanks.

November 27, 2011 5:42 pm

A physicist,
If you and yours are wrong here is a deal. Results will not be known for say 2,000 years.
So how about this deal, if your hockey stick ends up a fraud, this, “All the future earnings of our collective gene code (heirs and assigns together with decent and distrubution under the law) will go to the heirs and assigns , decent and distrubition under the law of all third world humans who are alive 2,000 years from now.
Put up or shut up. Name a date when AGW does mother earth in.
Or just play word games based on fraud data to hide the truth to the end of your days.

Patrick Davis
November 27, 2011 5:43 pm

“A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 5:06 pm”
Do a google serach on the Moche in what is now Chille/peru. Their fate was sealed by climate change, true, but I have yet to see any evidence emissions of CO2 from human activities drove that change.

Theo Goodwin
November 27, 2011 5:57 pm

barry says:
November 25, 2011 at 6:55 pm
“Theo @ here says
Remove the Hockey Stick and there is no basis whatsoever for the claim that late 20 century warming is out of the ordinary.”
I thought everyone was familiar with the claim that the Hockey Stick offers empirical evidence which shows that late 20 century warming is unprecedented. Maybe I needed to clarify that. Further responses below.
No basis whatsoever?
“MBH 99, the hockey stick paper, concluded that late 20th century warming was anomalous, and that 1990s were likely,/i> the warmest in the last millennium – in the Northern Hemisphere. Let’s compare that with non-Mannian papers.”
There is the Hockey Stick claim. They use the word ‘anomalous’ in its meaning of “unprecedented,” “unheard of,” etc.
“Using our model…” McShane and Wyner (2010)
Models are non-empirical. Also, they are tinker toys.
“The IPCC2001 conclusion that temperatures of the past millennium are unlikely to have been as warm, at any time prior to the 20th century, as the last decades of the 20th century is supported by subsequent research and by the results obtained here. We have also reviewed and, in some cases, tested with new analysis, papers (in particular Soon and Baliunas, 2003, MM2003 and MM2005b) which claim to refute that IPCC2001 conclusion and found that those claims were not well supported. The IPCC 2007 conclusion that “It is very likely that average NH temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were warmer than any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the warmest in at least the past 1300 years” (Solomon et al., 2007) is also supported by our analysis.” Juckes et al (2007)
The first sentence supports my claim. The remainder does not cover the MWP. It is irrelevant to my claim.
“During the late 20th century, our proxy-inferred summer temperatures were the warmest of the past two millennia, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000. Kaufman et al (2009) [Based on Arctic summertime temperatures]”
Temperatures that are the warmest of the past two millennia could be in the same ballpark as the MWP. They do not say. Irrelevant.
“Taken at face value, our reconstruction indicates that MWP conditions were nearly 0.7C cooler than those of the late twentieth century. These results suggest how extreme recent warming has been relative to the natural fluctuations of the past millennium. This conclusion, however, must be taken cautiously. D’Arrigo et al (2006)”
Puts the MWP in the same ballpark as today. Then warns caution.
“We find no evidence for any earlier periods in the last two millennia with warmer conditions than the post-1990 period – in agreement with previous similar studies Moberg (2005)”
Does not say that the MWP was not as warm as today. Supports my claim.
“The reconstructions show the temperatures of the mid-Holocene warm period some 1–2 K above the reference level, the maximum of the MWP at or slightly below the reference level, the minimum of the LIA about 1 K below the reference level, and end-of-20th century temperatures about 0.5 K above the reference level. All of these amplitude estimates are, as with the timing of these episodes, generally consistent with amplitudes estimated from other climate proxies as summarized by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [2007].”
States that the MWP was considerably warmer than today. Supports my claim.
“Huang et al (2008)
I left out any paper that had Mann as co-author. There are a couple of papers in the peer-reviewed literature that suggest warmer MWP than present, but the majority of studies that look at the issue come up with pretty much the same conclusions as Mann – NH temperatures in the last few decades are likely the warmest in the last 1000 to 2000 years.”
Puts the MWP in the same ballpark as today. By the way, it is a literature survey and, for that reason, is worthless. I am looking for empirical research.
But Mann and his minions, especially Al Gore, have used the word ‘unprecedented’. The MWP shows that there is nothing unprecedented about today’s warming.

Tucci78
November 27, 2011 6:03 pm

“A physicist” (who gets put between quotation marks for the same reason that intellectually honest people do the same thing with the word “Liberal” when referring to modern American milk-and-water fascists) at 5:06 PM on 27 November pointlessly refers to:

…a recent lead editorial in The British Medical Journal (BMJ) titled “Climate change, ill health, and conflict[which this “A physicist” dickwad claims] presents an analysis of the medical consequences of climate-change whose methods, conclusions, and dignity of expression all are opposite to yours.

Without, of course, quoting one friggin’ word from this editorial, or finding anything in the text thereof being predicated upon case-based clinical evidence supportive of any epidemiological conclusions, merely second-handing an International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) statement that “The earth is warming, and has been for at least a century,” claiming that this is “directly attributable to the increasing emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.”
How this got past peer review at BMJ is a manifest of how totally screwed up the medical literature has become, particularly in the same country where The Lancet gave us Andrew Wakefield’s demonstrably deadly MMR/autism idiocy in 1998.
Take what you read in any of the “prestigious” medical publications cum grano salis, kiddies. The editors get screwed out of their socks all the time. “A physicist” – in addition to not being a physicist of any kind whatsoever – sure as hell isn’t a physician, either, else the stupid sod would know this, and wouldn’t keep stepping on his prepuce every time he puts his foot down.
Meanwhile this “A physicist” load of guano concludes his nonsense with

WUWT readers are encouraged to compare the skeptical arguments of Tucci78′s post with those of the BMJ editorial and decide for themselves.

Those readers are also encouraged to understand that I do not represent (nor do I belong to) the British Medical Society, or even to that worthless collection of slurpers in Chicago, the AMA, with whose policies and pronouncements I am often in considered and conscientious disagreement.
As have been increasing numbers of American physicians and surgeons over the past half-century and more.

Theo Goodwin
November 27, 2011 6:13 pm

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 5:06 pm
Medicine is first and foremost a discipline that exists to provide care to the sick. In other words, its primary goal is not scientific.
Science is first and foremost a discipline that exists to discover truth about nature. Its primary goal is not to care for people.
Watermelons want to apply the medical model to science. They want science to be changed so that it first and foremost provides care to the sick. That change would be a perversion of science that destroys it. Science would not proceed until Bangladesh and all such places are as secure as the United States.
Medicine cannot take as its first and foremost goal that of discovering truth about nature. It cannot because it would have to set aside its goal every time a sick patient showed up. Medicine can draw upon the results of science.
Please stop being a watermelon.

A physicist
November 27, 2011 6:53 pm

WWUT readers are invited to contrast the Vietnam Veterans of America (VVA) level of respect for Craig Venter with Tucci78’s post.
My wife and have a distinct prejudice in favor of Navy Corpsman … it was a Navy Corpsman who stopped our Marine son’s bleeding in a field-tent north of Baghdad … and gave a cell-phone so he could call home … while one of my own MD colleagues prepped him for surgery.
Whatever the level of respect that is due to America’s Corpsmen and veterans, it’s pretty clear that the level of respect that Tucci78 is showing falls below that minimum.

JPeden
November 27, 2011 7:30 pm

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 5:06 pm
Tucci78, a recent lead editorial in The British Medical Journal (BMJ) titled “Climate change, ill health, and conflict” presents an analysis of the medical consequences of climate-change whose methods, conclusions, and dignity of expression all are opposite to yours.
Another appeal to an alleged Authority, by unproven Association to boot, A Climate Scientist, and therefore another FAIL. Btw, do you think the Editorial was “peer reviewed”?
But Let me guess what these “medical consequences” of “climate change” = “CO2 = CAGW” are: I’ll bet they operate on a “medical” model such that, “If we don’t do something really stupid before it’s too late!, such as effectively commit suicide or become enslaved to a fossil fuel CO2 phobia at the hands of our Totalitarian Master wannabees, and get regressed back to time zero anyway, we’re all gonna die!!”
A Climate Scientist, no responsible clinical M.D. would ever prescribe an alleged treatment for for an alleged “disease agent” allegedly responsible for a condition that itself was not only not a net disease, but instead an obvious precondition for Health. Nor would any responsible practicing M.D. prescribe an alleged cure for an alleged disease which is clearly much worse that the alleged disease.
So congratulations, A Climate Scientist, you’ve earned yet another FAIL! Or several more and counting.

Tucci78
November 27, 2011 7:33 pm

[SNIP: Sorry, but this is really over the top and you are playing into his hands. -REP]

JPeden
November 27, 2011 7:39 pm

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 6:53 pm
“while one of my own MD colleagues prepped him for surgery.”
Omg, so now you’re an M.D? What next, a Farmer or an Olympic Gold Medalist? Seriously, A Climate Scientist, by now who in their right mind would ever trust a Climate Scientist?
[MODERATOR’S NOTE: This is the last comment of this type I will approve. It is abusive and contributes nothing to the thread. The troll happens to hold a dual appointment to a graduate school of engineering and an associated medical school. -REP]
{NOTE to A PHYSICIST: Why don’t you just use your real name and be done with it? It’s not as if you’re that difficult to track down and have a sordid past. -REP]

barry
November 27, 2011 7:49 pm

Theo Godwin on the divergence issue.

You are aware that they never explored it, right? To this day it has not been explored.

This 1995 paper is one of the earliest to note the divergence issue. Briffa in 1998 discusses possible causes of the divergence in the paper, “Trees tell of past climates: but are they
speaking less clearly today?” Cook et al(2004) were able to isolate the MXD proxies that diverged from other proxies that did not diverge from the instrumental record. A study entitled On the ‘Divergence Problem’ in Northern Forests: A review of the
tree-ring evidence and possible causes
(link) looks at an array of previous studies on the matter.
Your ignorance is not a problem, it’s the certainty that accompanies it that spells it out – you are not a skeptic. you are a propagandist.

Climategaters are averse to empirical research and the genuine physical hypotheses that it can produce.

Beautifully ironic, don’t you think?
(A couple of people have commented that I’m defending the likes of Mann or Jones or whoever. I don’t care about them. It’s just sickening to observe the wholesale disregard of skeptical analysis – like Theo’s gormless certainty on the divergence issue having never been examined – by people who call themselves skeptics. I’m not passionate about paleoclimate (though I’ve familiarised myself with the literature). Michael Mann et al can go hang for all I care. I’m passionate about critical thinking and skepticism. Nowhere is the concept and practise of skepticism more abused than by the anti-AGW milieu. That, more than anything else, is what drives my comments here.)
In the deeps of this thread, most commenters are tribal, not skeptical. Thus it will pass that Theo can be so disastrously wrong in his comments, and not one of the ‘skeptics’ here will point it out, and neither will they defer to the referenced literature provided when the next ignorant comment appears that the divergence issue has ‘never been examined’. Because unity is more important that truth.
Such is the tribal mind of the so-called skeptics, that my comments here look to them like ‘defending Mann’, when all they are and have ever been is repudiation of irrational thinking.
“If you’re agin’ us, you must be with t’others.” – the fallacy of the excluded middle, a typical mistake of tribally or politically driven chatterers.

Editor
Reply to  barry
November 27, 2011 9:43 pm

barry –
– the “1995 paper” is paywalled.
– Briffa 1998 says “the cause is not understood”
– Cook 2004 says “it does very well at tracking the instrumental data on inter-decadal and longer timescales up to about 1982, after which the treering estimates systematically under-estimate the actual warming”
– all their other comments on the issue are only speculation. The issue is certainly not explored in the non-paywalled papers you provide.
Theo Godwin would appear to be correct : “To this day it has not been explored.“.
I resent having spent a lot of my limited time ploughing through those papers, only to find that your claim was in no way substantiated by them. In future, please extract the relevant bits from items you wish to cite, in order to save others’ time.

Tucci78
November 27, 2011 8:00 pm

The moderator REP obliterates my post of 7:33 PM on 27 November in response to this “A physicist” [SNIP: I know the term and it is abusive -REP] with:

[SNIP: Sorry, but this is really over the top and you are playing into his hands. -REP]

Nonsense. It is not “over the top” to observe the pitiful effort of this warmista poseur to assume the cachet of a particular biomedical research scientist first because “A physicist” mistakenly thinks Dr. Venter to be a physician who’d gotten suckered by the AGW fraud and then because – good gawd! – “A physicist” thinks that a stint as a Hospital Corpsman in Danang (1967-68) confers upon Dr. Venter some equally puissant respectability as a supporter of the preposterous junk science “A physicist” is trying to peddle in this forum.
When, of course, there’s no goddam proof whatsoever that John Craig Venter himself – as scientist, entrepreneur, or ex-conscript – gives the AGW fraud any credence at all.
[REPLY: Somewhat better, but making your points with less vituperousness would be better still. Please. -REP]

A physicist
November 27, 2011 8:37 pm

Theo Goodwin says: Medicine is first and foremost a discipline that exists to provide care to the sick. In other words, its primary goal is not scientific.
Science is first and foremost a discipline that exists to discover truth about nature. Its primary goal is not to care for people.

Theo, please let me say that your well-considered and respectfully-phrased post was very welcome.
My best answer would be, that the history of both medicine and science is replete with examples of workers for whom clinical care is medicine’s near-term mission, and scientific understanding is medicine’s long-term mission. And it’s a pretty fair approximation of the truth to say that those people who hold this short-and-long merged view are responsible for medicine’s greatest advances.
It is these short-and-long-view physicians who are most likely to speak out regarding climate change, and it is not realistic to expect them to refrain from doing so.

November 27, 2011 8:53 pm

Naturally the deluded “a physicist” would link to the repeatedly debunked Lancet. Credible sources appear to be beyond “a physicist’s” purview.

Tucci78
November 27, 2011 9:00 pm

Egad.
[REPLY: You know it is and you meant it so. Fossilized or fresh, just let’s keep it semi-civilized, OK? You’ve got a lot of great material to work with. -REP]

A physicist
November 27, 2011 9:15 pm

Tucci78 says: When, of course, there’s no goddam proof whatsoever that John Craig Venter himself – as scientist, entrepreneur, or ex-conscript – gives the AGW fraud any credence at all.
[REPLY: Somewhat better, but making your points with less vituperousness would be better still. Please. -REP]

The scientists at the J. Craig Venter Institute aren’t just “talking-the-talk” of working toward carbon neutrality to slow climate change, they’re walking-the-walk too.
This work is worthy of informed respect, eh?

Tucci78
November 27, 2011 9:35 pm

At 9:15 PM on 27 November, the piece of [self-snip] styling itself “A physicist” reaches up his [self-snip] really far and from a region normally only seen by gastroenterologists and general surgeons yanks a page from the J. Craig Venter Institute where we find the Public Relations Department simpering:

One of our quests is to help solve two troubling issues—global climate change and our dependence on hydrocarbons.

Which means that I was right about Venter to begin with and he really is “Just another crook taking advantage of government thuggery to suck the taxpaying public dry.”
How nice to get that solidly on the record.

Tucci78
November 27, 2011 9:58 pm

Censoring yet another of my posts (at 9:00 PM on 27 November), we have moderator REP writing in response to my discussion of doody (can I say “doody,” or must we descend to “caca” as a suitable euphemism?):

[REPLY: You know it is and you meant it so. Fossilized or fresh, just let’s keep it semi-civilized, OK? You’ve got a lot of great material to work with. -REP]

Tsk. I feel as if I’m confronted by my wife in the presence of the grandkids.
All of whom – even the six-year-old – roll their eyes when the Old Lady gets anal (in the Freudian sense, damnit) about such matters.
Ever heard of the expression “dogwhistle,” REP?
[REPLY: Tucci, the site policy is here. Please be kind enough to comply. You can whack trolls but you can’t abuse them. We leave that kind of behavior to RC and OM. Fair enough? -REP]

JPeden
November 27, 2011 10:22 pm

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 8:37 pm
My best answer would be, that the history of both medicine and science is replete with examples of workers for whom clinical care is medicine’s near-term mission, and scientific understanding is medicine’s long-term mission. And it’s a pretty fair approximation of the truth to say that those people who hold this short-and-long merged view are responsible for medicine’s greatest advances.
It is these short-and-long-view physicians who are most likely to speak out regarding climate change, and it is not realistic to expect them to refrain from doing so.

Well, A Physicist, my whole reason for being here at WUWT is that Climate Science is clearly not practicing real science, which also needs all the support it can get against the onslaught of Climate “Science” as a model for the practice of science, apart from the other very deleterious effects it has already wrought upon real people.
And I don’t agree with your argument that because a BMJ editorial says something you like, it has any credence whatsoever simply because it comes in some manner or other out of the mouths of “short-and-long-view physicians”. That’s a classic “appeal to authority” and also a “begging the question” fallacy.
Whereas, the issue of the validity of Climate Science’s CO2 = CAGW “hypotheses” instead stands or falls completely on its own according the the established practice of real scientific method and principle science.
But I will indulge your thesis:
I did nearly 30 years of practice as E.R. M.D.. I know what science is, how what I employed got there, and I never did anything that I did not understand pretty well, either at a basic scientific level or else at a therapeutic level simply because it either worked or didn’t work. I didn’t jump on new wonder cures or see the latest disease everywhere.
Therefore, according to your logic, I can now tell you definitively that Climate Science is not practicing real science to begin with, and by using some actual reasons: 1] it is simply not following the principles and method of the practice of real science, as has been well demonstrated completely without the “Climategates”; and 2] it does not work: Climate Science’s CO2 = CAGW “hypotheses” have not provided even one relevant correct empirical prediction yet. It has recorded straight “F’s”.
So are you ready to take its medicine? And to recommend it to the whole world? Especially given its track record?
I personally think that by now it’s useless to respond to you, because you obviously don’t know what the practice of real science is and instead continue to offer up mostly “appeals to authority” as some kind of proof of the validity of Climate Science, which they aren’t, although the Climate Scientists also think they are.
But I’d like to add that in searching for your practical identity, I’ve called you many rather mundane things, but I certainly would never call you a “t**ll”. [That’s a joke.]

November 27, 2011 10:28 pm

Okay…this is starting to get REALLY boring. Need a new topic. Now it has become “He said”, “She said”. Anthony, the turkeyday holiday is over. There are all sorts of stories out there emerging, even this weekend, about how th entire earth needs to get together to embrace this issue of global warming, and this website is STUCK on email tit for tat. Let’s get back to the science and activision to inform the ignorant.

A physicist
November 27, 2011 10:42 pm

JPeden says: Climate Science’s CO2 = CAGW “hypotheses” have not provided even one relevant correct empirical prediction yet.

JPeden, what most climate scientists expect to see is more-and-more hockey-sticks in the climate data.
And so far, they’re right.

REP
Editor
Reply to  A physicist
November 27, 2011 11:03 pm

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 10:42 pm (Edit)
JPeden, what most climate scientists expect to see is more-and-more hockey-sticks in the climate data.
And so far, they’re right.

You think so? You really need to see this.

JPeden
November 27, 2011 10:44 pm

Mike Jonas says:
November 27, 2011 at 9:43 pm
[to barry] I resent having spent a lot of my limited time ploughing through those papers, only to find that your claim was in no way substantiated by them. In future, please extract the relevant bits from items you wish to cite, in order to save others’ time.
That’s a classic barry tactic. barry first used it on me in a discussion about glaciers. The conclusion of the paper barry referred me to was a direct opposite of what barry had implied – the author actually concluded that ~ nothing definitive could be said yet about the relationship of the forces acting in climate to the advance or recession of glaciers.
The tactic is also implicated in the Climategate2 emails, where the conclusions presented to the public were neither agreed upon nor established.

barry
November 27, 2011 11:18 pm

Mike Jonas @ here

Theo Godwin would appear to be correct : “To this day it has not been explored.“

What deviant interpretation of the word ‘explored’ could possibly support such a bizarre claim? And let’s get the fuller version of Theo’s quote.

“You are aware that they never explored it, right? To this day it has not been explored.”

Theo is clearly saying no one has ever tried to understand the issue – tested the data, examined the trees, examined related data (precipitation, solar radiance, soil moisture content) – what else is the meaning of ‘explored’?
‘They’ (some of the paleoclimate community), identified the issue. They constrained it temporally. They intercompared data and isolated the particular proxy sets (NH MXD trees) that exhibited divergence. They speculated on various causes, both anthropogenic and natural. They sampled MXD trees and took measurements of the rings and Carbon isotopes to try and understand the issue (Barber 2000). Tests of samples and data – temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and temperature, solar variance, ozone indices etc – have been undertaken to get a fix on the issue. The question of whether this divergence is an indication of a long-term issue with the data, or if it is limited to the late 20th century, has also been examined, in order to determine what impact the divergence may have on the longer-term proxy record.
I do not understand the kind of mind that would announce that all this does NOT amount to the issue having been explored.
The reason for MXD divergence is not yet fully understood, despite a lot of examination of the issue. Perhaps in the mind of the Climate Skeptic, this equates to “they never even tried to understand it.”
Mike, you should have read the study I provided that was an overview of the literature. I note it is was the one paper from my post missing from your comments. Try again.
http://www.wsl.ch/info/mitarbeitende//cherubin/download/D_ArrigoetalGlobPlanCh2008.pdf
Read that and tell me the issue has not been explored!
Seriously, how do you manage to wave all this away? It doesn’t make sense.

Bob Roberts
November 28, 2011 1:23 am

I think the most tragic thing, and I suppose many are really thrilled but it really is tragic, is that so many people one would expect to be intelligent so obviously were not. How on Earth did they think that work they knew was fraudulent pretty much from the start, through and through, would not eventually be revealed as such?
This also puts those who said, “Nothing to see here” after the first release in a terrible light. No amount of whitewash will be enough.
Now, perhaps, we can get the politics OUT of science and stop all the chicken-little nonsense about how if we don’t immediately go back to the stone age it will be too late?
Somehow, I doubt it. Some people NEVER LEARN!

Another Gareth
November 28, 2011 2:18 am

0850.txt
2007, Tim Barnett of UCSD says to Gabi Hegerl of Duke University
“right now we have some famous models that all agree surprisely well with 20th obs, but whose forcing is really different. clearly, some tuning or very good luck involved. I doubt the modeling world will be able to get away with this much longer….so let’s preempt any potential problems.”

barry
November 28, 2011 2:59 am

Theo Goodwin

There is the Hockey Stick claim. They use the word ‘anomalous’ in its meaning of “unprecedented,” “unheard of,” etc.

Ok, I think I finally understand. The skeptic dictionary is anomalous.
Anomalous
1. Deviating from the normal or common order, form, or rule.
2. Equivocal, as in classification or nature.
deviating from the normal or usual order, type, etc.; irregular, abnormal, or incongruous
[from Late Latin anōmalus, from Greek anōmalos uneven, inconsistent
(I could nowhere find definitions matching yours in the regular dictionaries)
But lets get the full quote from MBH99, shall we?

Though expanded uncertainties prevent decisive conclusions for the period prior to AD 1400, our results suggest that the latter 20th century is anomalous in the context of at least the past millennium.

In what way is this substantively different from the other papers I cited?
Let’s review the conversation here. I suggested that much of the millennial reconstruction literature was congruent with the findings of MBH99 (and also MBH98, by the way), particularly in the characterisation of MWP compared to recent temperatures: that if you threw out every paper Michael Mann co-authored, the preponderance of the remaining body of work would say much the same thing. I provided corroboration by linking and quoting non-Mannian studies saying pretty much the same thing as MBH. That is, it is likely that NH temperatures in the decade/s from 1990 exceeded that of the MWP.
That’s just how it is. The only way to see it differently, apparently, is to redefine the English language and mischaracterise MBH.
Again, I’m not defending these papers (any of them) – I’m not qualified. I’m not trying to persuade anyone that the flipping MWP was cooler than now. I’m just appalled that people invest so much passion in the subject and don’t have the basic facts straight. All you need to be able to do is read and comprehend English. And if you want an informed opinion on the issue of MWP compared to recent temps, you need to read the literature broadly, not just blogs. I know of maybe two papers that posit warmer NH temps during the MWP than the last couple of decades, but the majority of non-Mannian papers on NH millennial temps tend to the opposite. These are the facts, whether you know them or not, and regardless of your (or my) opinion of Michael Mann.
Where, oh where are the real skeptics?

A physicist
November 28, 2011 3:58 am

[snip. The d-word is not allowed per site policy. ~dbs, mod.]

A physicist
November 28, 2011 6:11 am

barry says: Seriously, how do you [WUWT posters] manage to wave all this away? It doesn’t make sense.

That is an excellent question, Barry. My own experience here on WUWT has been entirely consistent with an increasingly widespread opinion:[snip. Not credible. See the sidebar concerning skepticalscience. -mod.]
“Even if a reasoned post does appear [on WUWT] the comments usually take care of cherry picking, ad homs, distortion, vitriol, conspiracy theories etc., and at that point their host, Anthony Watts, is only too happy to gently encourage them.
Remember too, Anthony Watts is close to Monckton and has on several occasions allowed his site to be used from which to launch attacks on scientists.”
The culture that SkepticalScience describes certainly matches what I have personally experienced! Thus (it seems to me) the widely-believed perception of WUWT is in fact reasonably accurate.
Hopefully, skepticism can do better.

November 28, 2011 6:14 am

barry,
You just don’t understand, do you? Read the first and second batch of emails and related communications. The “team” conspired to ‘get rid of the MWP’. That is a documented fact.
Wake up, pal. The whole runaway global warming conspiracy is based on the immense taxpayer loot flowing into “climate studies”. Ignorance is no excuse. You’re wilfully avoiding reality: there is no evidence for the AGW conjecture. None. It’s all based on models programmed by people with a vested interest. The GCMs have been wrong, every one of them. Not one predicted the flat to declining temperatures of the past decade and a half, they all predicted accelerating global warming.
In any area of the hard sciences those people would hang their heads in shame, as everyone else pointed and laughed at them. Their funding would be slashed. But in CAGW climate “science” they get financially rewarded. The question is, what do you get out of being one of their religious lemmings, barry? You have bet on the wrong horse, and you lost. There is no runaway global warming, as was universally predicted by the CAGW cult. Normal folks would say, “They lied to me,” and move on. Not you. Cognitive dissonance in action.

FredericM
November 28, 2011 6:57 am

Military Industrial Complex (mick-MIC). Viewed by the naive listener as those dirty Generals. I told you so, is common. Perhaps the most brilliant planning of the past 5000 years in How to get the commoner in line Permanently. Some 18,000 or more new Millionaires/billionaires created between January 1942 and August 1945. None of these new rulers were at the time in uniform – Congress motivated with Cost plus 10%. Grants to produce full employment, those not 4F were conscripted into uniform.
Today’s extension of the MIC key-mouse of governance is this creation of a manmade Crisis – all government at cost plus 10% creating the University-Government brothel. A Destrier vs. Palfrey purpose.
Makes Water Gate look mighty palfrey -paltry in burden of labor

November 28, 2011 7:17 am

A physicist says:
The culture that SkepticalScience describes certainly matches what I have personally experienced! Thus (it seems to me) the widely-believed perception of WUWT is in fact reasonably accurate.
Hopefully, skepticism can do better.
Henry@A physicist
My experience with Sceptical Sience is somewhat opposite to yours: they wipe all my comments and I am so severely censored there that any logical discussion with anyone there is completely impossible. I have decided that their name is not appropriate. It should be called : GullibleScience.
I am not going back there again, I am sorry to say.
Trust me, you will get the best scepticism on earth right here, on WUWT.
By the way, both Barry and yourself must still point out to me what, exactly, what is bad about global warming, seeing that the extra greening of earth (which we all want?) also causes some of that warming,
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
By the way, get a life, get a better name if you want to be on a blog, and when are we going to have that coffee?

JPeden
November 28, 2011 7:42 am

A physicist says:
November 28, 2011 at 6:11 am
Remember too, Anthony Watts is close to Monckton and has on several occasions allowed his site to be used from which to launch attacks on scientists.
Yes, but Anthony sure doesn’t let Rush Limbaugh post at WUWT, so he must have some scruples, right?
In other words, you are trying to use the fallacious tactics of what I’d call a “from Anti-Authority” tactic, and the usual but even unestablished ad hominem smear in order to valiantly establish a general “perception is reality” case for the validity of Climate Science’s “science”, which then also commits the fallacy of being totally irrelevant to the actual case – which we used to call an ignoratio elenchi = “it just makes no sense at all”, iirc.
But, A physicist, Anthony does let you post here. So how do you account that fact within your quite nuanced “balance” as relating to the real question?
And I still say you almost have to be a Climate Scientist. Because your thinking sounds a lot like their “reasoning” as revealed in the emails.

wobble
November 28, 2011 7:45 am

barry, are you seriously attempting to claim that the Mann Hockey Stick was debunked a decade prior to Al Gore using it in his film?
A physicist, are you still claiming that CAGW is obviously real because investment capital is being dumped into unviable business plans?

JPeden
November 28, 2011 8:00 am

A physicist says:
November 27, 2011 at 10:42 pm
JPeden says: Climate Science’s CO2 = CAGW “hypotheses” have not provided even one relevant correct empirical prediction yet.
JPeden, what most climate scientists expect to see is more-and-more hockey-sticks in the climate data.
And so far, they’re right.

Well, I sure hope they’ve got at least this one, completely unhinged anecdote right. Because if things keep going they way they look otherwise, and the Greenies have their way with us, we’re going to have to move up there with the Polar Bears just to survive. Either that or get as close to YAD06 as possible! Heap plenty of caribou in Yamal, too!

A physicist
November 28, 2011 9:01 am

JPeden says: But, A physicist, Anthony does let you post here. So how do you account that fact within your quite nuanced “balance” as relating to the real question?

The short-term answer is the Salon des Skeptique Refusés … the comments rejected by WUWT.
The long-term answer is that science is useless without skepticism, and that skepticism is useful if and only if it is rational skepticism.
REPLY: I agree, your irrational skepticism is not useful, nor is your constant snark and threadjacking. Basically what you are doing is creating posts that flaunt policy so they will be rejected, so you can post them elsewhere as “proof” that we don’t meet your criteria and that we are “bad”.
So here’s the deal Dr. Sidles (outed earlier on this thread by another commenter), I’m putting you in the troll bin. All your posts will automatically go to an extra level of moderation. Some might be approved, those that don’t meet policy might not. Be as upset as you wish, but do be careful how you post things and there won’t be any problem. – Anthony

JPeden
November 28, 2011 11:45 am

The long-term answer is that science is useless without skepticism, and that skepticism is useful if and only if it is rational skepticism.
Well, if you actually did know the definition of “rationalism”, that is, insofar as words and logic are applied to the real world so as to make good contact with it, or agreed that real science should be practiced according to the principles and method of real science, then you would be a real sceptic. It’s pretty simple, really, but your intentional appeal to “everything but” really does not qualify you.

Editor
November 28, 2011 12:14 pm

barry – As I said last time, I am not ploughing through a paper, you need to quote the relevant bit to make your point and save others’ time. To avoid getting bogged down in semantics, let’s go back to basics and the original statement. “On the divergence issue, it is NOT an ‘inescapable conclusion’ that the data is ‘useless’, but that outcome is a strong possibility that must be explored.“.
In this case, “explored” clearly means to investigate and find a valid reason. Without a valid reason, the data is indeed useless. It’s pretty obvious that the people involved would have looked at the problem, but they found nothing and used a trick to hide it. That’s not “explored”. Not in this context.

November 28, 2011 12:36 pm

Irrational skepticism is no better than irrational belief, in this case, of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming.
Here, it appears, Dr. Sidles’ (“a physicist”) purpose is “…constant snark and threadjacking.” Basically what he (Dr. Sidles) is doing is creating posts that flaunt policy so they will be rejected, so that he can post them elsewhere as “proof” that WUWT doesn’t meet his criteria and that WUWT is “bad”, while he defends his belief in CAGW.
I would suggest he sidle up to the bar that good science has set and engage some of the knowledgeable folks here in rational skepticism.
We all learn something when that happens.

Sean Peake
November 28, 2011 12:48 pm

Anthony, here’s an idea: give Sidles his own page where you can toss his posts wherever he has made them. Think of it as a Troll cage in a zoo (he’ll need a tire swing) where we can all watch from a distance but not feed. That way he can never say you blocked his posts.

JPeden
November 28, 2011 12:50 pm

barry says:
November 27, 2011 at 11:18 pm
‘They’ (some of the paleoclimate community), identified the issue [the divergence]. They constrained it temporally. They intercompared data and isolated the particular proxy sets (NH MXD trees) that exhibited divergence. They speculated on various causes, both anthropogenic and natural. They sampled MXD trees and took measurements of the rings and Carbon isotopes to try and understand the issue (Barber 2000).
As usual, barry, Barber’s conclusion, as published in Letters to Nature 405, doesn’t support your idea that she was investigating the “divergence”, that she was even aware of it, or that the North American white spruce stands she studied have anything to do with the trees used in generating the Hockey Stick:
Our data show that temperature-induced drought stress has disproportionately affected the most rapidly growing white spruce, suggesting that, under recent climate warming, drought may have been an important factor limiting carbon uptake in a large portion of the North American boreal forest. If this limitation in growth due to drought stress is sustained, the future capacity of northern latitudes to sequester carbon may be less than currently expected.
However, I did come across a paper by Craig Lohle, “accepted” Climate Change 6/2/2008, who did reference Barber 2000, although I don’t know if it was in the substance of his paper or only in his list of references. One of his conclusions for dealing with the divergence problem was:
More specific tests are also possible. If a reconstruction already shows divergence,
it is an indication that recent temperatures are already in the nonlinear zone. Such
reconstructions should not be used for evaluating past climates.

Which I think would erase all of the current ring width contributors to the Hockey Stick, under his assumption of a nonlinear response of growth to increased temperature, and under which a significant MWP sometimes emerges.

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 28, 2011 1:25 pm

Thanks Anthony,
Time out might help him.
One thing, get this information to Mark Levin of the http://www.marklevinshow.com
Lots of followers there and Sean Hannity and Rush Linbaugh talk to him. That and his Landmark legal team may have ideas on what laws “the team” may have broken.

barry
November 28, 2011 2:27 pm

Mike, I was responding to someone else re their confabulated notion that no one in paleoclimate science has explored the divergence issue. It is a ludicrous notion.There have been dozens of studies from many groups (Japanese, Russian, Canadian, UK, US…) investigating arboreal response to climate re the divergence issue.

In this case, “explored” clearly means to investigate and find a valid reason.

I cannot help it if commenters are unclear, or if they have strange ideas about what words mean. You are putting words in another commenters mouth. Once again, the English language is being redefined in order to ‘win’ a point. This is juvenile.
You appear to be asking me to persuade you of something. I’m not remotely qualified to tell you what is what about the divergence issue. I don’t even have an opinion, except that your assertions seem presumptive.
You made the claim that the data is useless. You are making absolute pronouncements. And you do this without having familiarised yourself with the literature and the attempts to reconcile the problem. I am not persuaded. I’ve read up on this subject and continue to do so, within my limited capacity. You should do the same. and remember your own limits. No skeptic purports to ‘know’ things of which they are only passing familiar.
The discussion can only usefully progress when it occurs within the modesty of each person’s limits. Your assertions on the utility of proxy data exhibiting divergence are presumptive.
(‘presumptive’ is exactly the right word)
If you want an overview of the divergence issue specifically WRT reconstructing millennial records, read section 3, “Implications for hemispheric-scale proxy temperature.” The issue you want to home in on is cited below, but you should read the whole section for a proper overview.

Other important issues to consider in evaluating the divergence problem are whether or not this phenomenon is unprecedented over the past millennium, and to what extent it is spatially constrained to northern latitude (boreal) forests. A recent analysis by Cook et al. (2004a) suggests that the divergence is restricted to the recent period and is unique over the past thousand years. It is thus likely to be anthropogenic in origin. Cook et al. (2004a) utilized a fourteen chronology ring width data set used previously to model low-frequency temperature variability for the past millennium (Esper et al., 2002). The data from these fourteen sites were split into northern (eight boreal sites, 55°–70° N), and southern (six temperate sites, 30°–55° N) groups. While the northern group, which broadly corresponds to the region considered most sensitive to divergence by Briffa et al. (1998a,b), shows a significant recent downturn, the southern group does not and is more consistent with recent warming trends. Prior to recent decades, the subgroups track each other reasonably well back in time until around the MWP, when replication and sample size are relatively low and the reconstructed temperatures are less certain. Thus, Cook et al. (2004a) concluded that at no time prior to the 20th century (at least until the MWP) was there a separation between the north and south groups that was at all comparable to that found after around 1950. One caveat, however, is that these analyses were based on a rather small number of treering records. Another is that the southern group included tree-ring data that may contain a purported CO2 fertilization signal (e.g., LaMarche et al., 1984; Graybill and Idso, 1993). If present, such a signal might impart an exaggerated estimate of the extent of north vs. south growth divergence. However, the existence of a CO2 fertilization signal remains very uncertain at present. Note also that the Sol Dav, Mongolia record, which shows evidence of pronounced recent warming (see above), was included in the southern group. Furthermore, end effect issues (see elsewhere in this study) can also complicate an exercise such as this one. One final point of note is that greater uncertainty exists in the earlier part of this record, and in other reconstructions, during the MWP, when sample size and replication are typically low (Cook et al., 2004a; D’Arrigo et al., 2006). Previously, Briffa et al. (1998a) conducted a similar analysis of their large-scale tree-ring data set for northern latitudes. As found by Cook et al. (2004a), Briffa et al. (1998a) discovered less divergence in the more southern regions, with declines in common variance with temperature of 5–12% vs. over 30% for some northern regions. Some of these more southern sites may have been less temperature-limited than those at the very limits of survival at treeline. Considerably more such research is needed, however, before we can conclude unequivocally that the recently observed divergence phenomenon is unique over the past thousand years.

Same link as before:
http://www.wsl.ch/info/mitarbeitende//cherubin/download/D_ArrigoetalGlobPlanCh2008.pdf

Editor
Reply to  barry
November 28, 2011 6:09 pm

barry – your last comment http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/#comment-811789 was condescending tosh, attempting to deflect attention from the issue to me. All that matters is the issue at hand.
Other important issues to consider in evaluating the divergence problem are whether or not this phenomenon is unprecedented over the past millennium, and to what extent it is spatially constrained to northern latitude (boreal) forests. A recent analysis by Cook et al. (2004a) suggests that the divergence is restricted to the recent period and is unique over the past thousand years. It is thus likely to be anthropogenic in origin.“.
That means they don’t have a clue what caused it. If they don’t have a clue what caused it then they can’t justify covering it up. But they did cover it up, they said so themselves, using a trick to hide it. That’s a pretty basic statement, my or your areas of expertise are irrelevant. Again, start with the simple question: when is it ever acceptable for a scientist to hide something?

Bill Williams
November 28, 2011 3:01 pm

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=5165
Finally, that idiot Lord Monckton or Brenchly, is making his own
> DVD, based
> on that awful Ch 4 program ‘The Great Global Warming Swindle’ !
> Hopefully soon
> Ofcom (the UK group who assesses complaints against programs) will have
> ruled
> on that program – which had many more errors than Al’s DVD.
>
> Cheers
> Phil

Third Party
November 28, 2011 3:22 pm

Open Secrets:
“MANN, MICHAEL
BOALSBURG,PA 16827 PENN STATE UNIVERSITY/PROFESSOR 8/14/08 $250 Obama, Barack (D)
Mann, Michael
Boalsburg,PA 16827 Penn State University 10/24/08 $250 Obama, Barack (D)”

Philemon
November 28, 2011 5:22 pm

#1577 from Phil Jones:
“Any work we have done in the past 
is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden. I’ve
discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are 
happy about not releasing the original station data”
Who was Phil Jones’ grant officer for his grant from the U.S. DOE? Anyone have the DOE identifier for it?

David Ball
November 28, 2011 5:39 pm

“whole lotta obfuscation goin’ on”- Jerry Lee Lewis

Steve E
November 28, 2011 6:13 pm

Ouch! This one had to hurt! Wigley asks Briffa if he’s hiding something.
email 1017.txt-
date: Wed, 10 May 2006 07:24:43 -0600 (MDT)
from: ???@ucar.edu
subject: [Fwd: CCNet: “COLLAPSE TO NEAR ZERO?” EUROPE’S CARBON CREDITS MAY
to: ???@uea.ac.uk
Keith,
See the last item. Why don’t you just give these people the raw data?
Are you hiding something — your apparent refusal to be forthcoming sure
makes it look as though you are.
Tom.
==========
The last item referred to above is this:
(10) AND FINALLY: SCIENCE SHENANGIGANS GO ON
Steve McIntyre, 9 May 2006
It’s the last item in a list of news items originally sent by Benny Peiser to a “cambridge-conference” email address and then forwarded by Tom Wigley at UCAR to Keith Briffa at UEA.
The item refers to this post at CA: http://climateaudit.org/2006/05/09/more-ob-confidential/

wayne
November 28, 2011 8:04 pm

State of Fear:
Push yourself over to RobertInAz’s post containing a great link to a video that all should watch. How the lack of knowledge of history let’s us repeat what we should have learned and have already forgotten. (subject: on Little Ice Age)

HR
November 28, 2011 8:22 pm

There’s a few interesting emails on the Landsea/Trenberth controversy over hurricanes that I thought were interesting.
Email 0890
5th Nov 2004 Landsea sent an email with concerns about Trenberth’s press conference to IPCC leadership (Trenberth cc’d)
8th Nov 2004 Albert Klein Tank highlighted this problem to Phil Jones and Kevin Trenberth.
But it looks like the wheels were already in motion to exclude Landsea’s dissenting voice.
Email 1219
28th Oct Trenberth told Phil Jones about his press release countering Landsea and was already suggesting a Japanese contribution instead.
1st Nov Jones wrote to Neville Nicholls asking for suggestions of a replacement with the line “I know Chris Landsea could do it, but he always does. It would be good to get a different perspective.”
3rd Nov Funnily Nicholls wrote back “looking for an east asian perspective perhaps you should go for Johnny Chan?” but adds “…..you (especially Kevin) may not like what he says. But I think he is the obvious east Asia expert to have a crack at such a box anyway. He might end up saying what Chris Landsea would probably say anyway.”
Email 3967
3rd or 4th Nov (not dated but must be after Nicholl email exchange and before Trenberth reply)
Jones gets back to Trenberth with Nicholls suggestion but adding “Neville suggested Johnny Chan but said he would just say the same thing as Chris Landsea!” (wonder about the full meaning in that exclamation mark)
Meanwhile Jones had also started down another route
Email 2815
Nov 2nd Approaching Hiroki Kondo.
It seems that even before Landsea stepped down Jones and Trenberth had plans to replace him.
Just as an aside and to prove a scorned climate scientist has a long and spiteful memory
Email 5215 in 2007 from Jones to Trenberth was about the Nobel Prize and a suggestion that all contributors should get a scanned copy of the certificate to hang on their walls but also includes “… next time you see Chris Landsea, maybe you can tell him he opted out the prize!”

November 29, 2011 6:24 am

UPDATE 35: “Stroppy” Dr Roger Pielke Sr. shows just how much a “old boys network” the peer review process is. Thanks you for update. 🙂

wobble
November 29, 2011 7:46 am

barry says:
“November 28, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Mike, I was responding to someone else re their confabulated notion that no one in paleoclimate science has explored the divergence issue. It is a ludicrous notion.There have been dozens of studies from many groups (Japanese, Russian, Canadian, UK, US…) investigating arboreal response to climate re the divergence issue.”

barry, again, if the hockey stick had been so thoroughly explored, then why didn’t a palecolimate scientist warn Al Gore not to use it in his movie??
Maybe the “exploration” wasn’t as thorough as you’re insisting. Regardless, it’s fun to read you touting over-and-over-and-over that the hockey stick was debunked decades again. I know several people who still refuse to accept it.

Dean
November 29, 2011 9:01 am

Oh my……..this is Too Fun!!!!………like shooting fish in a barrel…….
Keyword: “Idiot”
From: Phil Jones
To: John Christy
Subject: This and that
Date: Tue Jul 5 15:51:55 2005
John,
There has been some email traffic in the last few days to a week – quite
a bit really, only a small part about MSU. The main part has been one of
your House subcommittees wanting Mike Mann and others and IPCC
to respond on how they produced their reconstructions and how IPCC
produced their report.
In case you want to look at this see later in the email !
Also this load of rubbish !
This is from an Australian at BMRC (not Neville Nicholls). It began from the attached
article. What an idiot. The scientific community would come down on me in no
uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only
7 years of data and it isn’t statistically significant.
The Australian also alerted me to this blogging ! I think this is the term ! Luckily
I don’t live in Australia.

November 29, 2011 10:09 am

Kevin Schurig
November 29, 2011 10:37 am

Just when the believers thought it was safe to go back into the water.

Man, talk about hanging one’s self with their own rope. A shame the main stream media is deep in bed with the AGW crowd, or this would be one big feeding frenzy.

JPeden
November 29, 2011 11:18 am

“Slippin’ and Sliding, creepin’ and a hiding, I won’t be your fool no more” – Little Richard

Tucci78
November 29, 2011 2:10 pm

At 7:46 AM on 29 November wobble asks of barry:

…. if the hockey stick had been so thoroughly explored, then why didn’t a paleoclimate scientist warn Al Gore not to use it in his movie??

Because Algore is a professional liar as well as a complete bloody ignoramus in the sciences, he’s always deliberately ignored every honest “paleoclimate scientist” willing and able to tell him just what a sack of crap Dr. Mann’s flaming idiot “hockey stick” graph has always been, and the stupid “Liberal” fascist carbon-trading sonofabitch figured he could not only get away with it (An Ever-So-Convienent Fraud was pitched, after all, at people stupid enough to have voted for him) but also make himself the world’s first “carbon billionaire” if he could get away with it.
Motive and opportunity, y’know.

November 29, 2011 8:05 pm

Thoughts from Phil Jones as extracted from emails to “Sheppard Sylv Miss” in response to enquiries from outside individuals
“On your theoretical reasons: these have nothing to do with relationships
between CO2 and temperature. The confidence comes from simple physics.
More CO2 means higher temperature, it has nothing to with how well models
correlate with historic data. Also, if you look at many scenarios of future temperature change,
the emissions scenario makes very little difference until 2040. This means
that what we do now will have hardly any effect on temperature increases until 2040.
The next 30 or so years are predetermined. There will be variability from year to year,
but the level for the 2040s is essentially independent of the emissions scenario.
This is why the sooner we start doing something about CO2 levels the sooner our
children we see some effect.
Cheers
Phil”

Goleb
November 30, 2011 12:19 am

If I am reading the latest Bishop Hill post correctly, it would appear as if as if the BBC even had a hand in the creation of RealClimate, if I am reading this correctly?
“We had an interesting debate on this at the Tyndall Advisory Board last week, and the consensus was very much in line with your views, except for the journalist present (Roger Horobin), who wanted something more pro-active. I am more sympathetic to his view than most of you, I think, but the question is what more would be useful, effective, and not too burdensome ? So far I don’t think I have identified anything, but I do think that the sort of web-page mentioned above would be a start, and so I am copying this to Asher Minns, for him to consider and discuss with John & Mike at Tyndall Central.”
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/11/30/a-meeting-of-the-tyndall-advisory-board.html

A physicist
November 30, 2011 5:06 am

For the date November 29, RealClimate’s thread on the CRU emails has received 66 comments, while WUWT received 8 comments. Moreover the 66 comments on RealClimate — both from skeptics and non-skeptics — convey more information together with deeper rational analysis, relative to the 8 comments on WUWT. And finally, the vigorous give-and-take evident in RealClimate’s 66 comments is entirely lacking in WUWT’s 8 comments.
Why is there such a striking difference in reader participation and informed skepticism? What can WUWT editors do to improve WUWT’s (very important) skeptical contribution to the climate change discussion?

November 30, 2011 5:36 am

A physicist,
RealClimatePropaganda is a failed alarmist blog that has about two dozen nincompoops head-nodding with each other; it is the ultimate censoring echo chamber with no credibility.
The only reason fools like you post here is because of the traffic generated by the Best Science site on the internet. You can’t make it on your own.
You need to run along back to RC to get some new talking points, chump, because the ones you’re using are a total fail. As an educated, blinkerd, know-nothing globaloney tool, you need to wise up… IF you can.☺

JPeden
November 30, 2011 6:09 am

A physicist says:
November 30, 2011 at 5:06 am
For the date November 29, RealClimate’s thread on the CRU emails has received 66 comments, while WUWT received 8 comments.
Maybe you haven’t noticed the rest of the CRU email threads at WUWT? I think I’ve put up well over 8 all by myself within the past 30 hours and have read more of the threads without any comment, which you apparently haven’t even noticed. So your above fake factoid is just more anti-scientific anecdotal “proof” from you involving the oldest thread here – and perhaps even your own nuanced “effect” upon it? – and you give an “argument” as to the scientific credibility of Climate Science on the basis of an irrelevant standard, to boot, one of its.
And finally, the vigorous give-and-take evident in RealClimate’s 66 comments is entirely lacking in WUWT’s 8 comments.
See above, plus argument from “subjectivity” and unwarranted Authority. But, hey, just like a real Climate Scientist! So there’s that to add to your credentials.

Steve Keohane
November 30, 2011 8:21 am

A physicist says: November 30, 2011 at 5:06 am
For the date November 29, RealClimate’s thread on the CRU emails has received 66 comments, while WUWT received 8 comments.

Wrong again! On the threads directly concerning CRU emails, 427 posts were made at WUWT on Nov. 29. That’s not counting the eight you counted on this thread.
[8? Your reply is number 1253 – on this one thread alone. Robt]

Steve Keohane
November 30, 2011 8:40 am

Mod. Robt, the count was for Nov 29th alone, in reference to what “A physicist” was referring to. I was trying to stick up for WUWT!!
[Noted. 8<) ]

Jean Parisot
November 30, 2011 11:53 am

I was looking thru the various emails that discuss the spatial grids used to gerrymander this data, and was wondering if there was a pre-AGW standard for “gridding” climate data to lat/long boxes versus regions of related topography?

Jean Parisot
November 30, 2011 11:54 am

nevermind found it in 0417

November 30, 2011 12:54 pm

Sean Peake says: November 28, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Anthony, here’s an idea: give Sidles his own page where you can toss his posts wherever he has made them. Think of it as a Troll cage in a zoo (he’ll need a tire swing) where we can all watch from a distance but not feed. That way he can never say you blocked his posts.

Seconded.
ps pls don’t make this page too much longer. Suggest you clip the “updates” a the top and repost it under the Climategate header: Climategate 2.0 AND / OR keep just that at the top of front page a while longer.
What a stinker. 49 updates to date. Get some sleep (memo to self too!)

JMW
December 1, 2011 4:03 am

I wonder: we have climategate and now climategate 2.0.
So far as seems to be the case, 2.0 appears to be a second tranche of the original “hack”.
The question is, if they never found out who released all this stuff, how do they know he/she isn’t still there actively setting up a release of emails etc from the post climategate period?
Now there is something I’d like to see, the emails etc from the initial climategate release forward that show us something of the initial caution and panic.
Then, once the fix was in and the whitewash assured, I’d like to see how their attitude changed. Probably they would think themselves proven bombproof and may even have been even more revealing.
I do hope there is someone still there.
Or some new hacker if the original has left.

Tucci78
Reply to  JMW
December 1, 2011 6:03 am

At 4:03 M on 1 December, JMW had asked:

…if they never found out who released all this stuff, how do they know he/she isn’t still there actively setting up a release of emails etc from the post climategate period?

For the same reason that no more civilian airliners have been taken over by suicidal sons of the desert and slammed into prominent targets since 11 September 2001, and the senior administrative personnel of the American Mafia haven’t gathered to confer since the Apalachin meeting of 14 November 1957.
As in any other racketeer-influenced and criminally corrupt organization (see “RICO Act“), the AGW fraudsters numbered among the Climatic Research Unit’s e-mail correspondents having been exposed to public scrutiny by Climategate 1.0, these stupid, arrogant sods learned – too late! – that it was possible for their coordinated deceit and peculations to be demonstrated to their victims.
The “long con” just won’t work for crooks like Trenberth and Briffa and Mann and Jones once their methods become widely known among the marks, even if the bunco squad doesn’t pursue and arrest and convict them.
The rules of conduct regarding e-mail communications among the AGW fraudsters underwent a drastic change in the direction of circumspection on 17 November 2009, and even

…once the fix was in and the whitewash assured,

…the change in “their attitude” was more in the direction of “Oh, my God! They’re on to us!” than anything else.
And suddenly their exchanges of collegial (conspiratorial? yeah, that’s the better term…) e-mails dried way to hellangone up.
As opposed to thinking

…themselves proven bombproof

…I’d hazard a very reliable guess to the effect that they’d experienced the kind of profound shock Mr. Herman Cain felt when his past history of alpha-male behavior during his tenure as CEO of the National Restaurant Association was spectacularly exposed by Politico in October 2011.
The “Liberals” proving yet again that they’ll do anything to ensure that the Red Faction candidate next year is Mitt “the Mormon Cultist” Romney. Tsk. And you thought that this kind of “rat-[self-snip]ing” only went on among the Republicans, didn’tcha?
Anyway, getting back to los warmistas, there’s no way (JMW’s hopes notwithstanding) that there “may even have been even more revealing” e-mail communications undertaken after FOIA2009.zip hit the ‘Net.
Though a look through the AGW fraudsters’ Internet activity in the weeks following 17 November 2009 might be revealing.
Anybody else willing to bet that they’d done a lot of searching and downloading pertinent to PGP and TrueCrypt and suchlike?

Brian H
December 8, 2011 3:58 pm

cui bono says:
November 22, 2011 at 2:56 pm
The problem is that the guys at the University of East Anglia haven’t heard of ethics.
Which is odd as it’s only a few miles to the South of them.
(File under extremely poor British jokes).

Would that be where they practice E-Sex?

Brian H
December 8, 2011 4:01 pm

This could go on for a while. If the 220,000 are “bundled” for staged release, at 5,000 a crack there could be 44 more Climategates! That would get us up to CG XLVI, I think.

Brian H
December 8, 2011 6:56 pm

Magnus says:
November 23, 2011 at 8:05 am

No, you’ve been deceived by the term ‘exponential’, I guess. It’s a declining sequence, not increasing. Think of an asymptotic curve, getting nearer and nearer to a limit, never quite arriving. Or reducing bang for the buck with each increase.

Brian H
December 8, 2011 7:10 pm

Max Hugoson says:
November 23, 2011 at 1:25 pm

2. Loose academic positions, 3. Banned from further research or publication for periods of time. 4. Occassionally stripped of their Medical License. IT is to bad this cannot be done to the “climate scientists”. I would recommend that PHD granting Universities consider revoking PHDs for some of the more aggregious offenders!
Max

Great post, Max. But more QC on the spelling, maybe? E.g., just in the final para, there:
transpose an ‘o’ from ‘loose’ to ‘to bad’; remove an ‘s’ from ‘occassionally’; replace the ‘a’ with ‘e’ in ‘aggregious’. 😉
[And check the number of g’s in egregious. ~dbs]

Brian H
December 8, 2011 7:59 pm

dbs;
indeed! How aggervatin’. Missed it. Eggcelent catch.