I said yesterday to keep an eye on this storm, and now it has grown into a hurricane rather quickly. The big question is whether or not it reforms after passing over the Yucatan peninsula. If it does, we’ll have a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and the warnings and evacuations will follow.
See the latest track forecast:
Bulletin:
BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 ...RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.$$ FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS
You guys in the USA seem to be following the path we in the UK have gone down. It will not belong before your weather forecasts are presented in degrees Celsius and Kph with the real money put in brackets afterwards.
At the moment the question is whether it’ll actually pass over the Yucatan and enter the Gulf at all, or recurve in the extreme northwestern Caribbean and head for Cuba.
Zac – The Team has already got the ‘humidex’ – ‘”feels like” – planted in the propaganda system. That seems to fool some of the people some of the time.
Forgot to say that when it is very hot the UK weather forecast reverts back to degrees Farenheit and when it is very rainy we get it in inches rather than those centimeters.
A strong cold front is expected to move into the Gulf midweek. Who knows where that’ll push the hurricane.
Hope for some rain down it Texas, but I doubt it. Do not want a hurricane – just the rain.
I thought the projected NOAA track shows the storm not crossing the Yucatan, rather it will meander around and start drifting east/north east clearing the Yucatan peninsula area around Saturday.
I’ll take the hurricane in Texas. Preferably a nice little Cat 2 making landfall on the King Ranch and taking a nice, long, slow path through Central Texas.
Sorry pittzer, not in the cards. IMO (as a meteorologist) the fact that this has strengthen so quickly means it has a less of a chance of even getting to the Yucatan. A taller storm (more intense) has a steering flow that is deduced from a thicker/higher mean flow…and in this case, would imply a curve further to the east.
The track forecast becomes very uncertain:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/242041.shtml? shouts:
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED DOWN. A
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO STEER RINA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD…THEN NORTHWARD IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT…THE
TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD…AND THE GFS SHOWING AN
EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. FOR NOW…THE NHC FORECAST
REMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE…AND THE POOR RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY…THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA.
Via spaghettimodels.com: http://flhurricane.com/images/2011/clark19latest.png
Looks more like a footballer’s hairdo than a model, if you ask me.
With the track uncertainty to the southern side, there appears to be no threat (or promise, if you’re Texan) of a US landfall. Indeed, given the small size of the system, any landfall that may happen before the cold front reaches the Caribbean (in October??) would likely only affect a small area.
My money is on a quick spin-up and equally quick spin-down without any great impact to land at all. The only exception to this may be if it eventually brings significant rainfall to Haiti, with the inevitable mudslides on the tree-stripped hillsides.
All those models look potentially correct to me.
I’ll wager it gets sucked north and clips the tip of Florida on Thursday before heading out to sea. Sorry Texas.
While Rina makes a U Turn, will the other storm run on up into it? Looks like the other 40% low Invest 97 is heading that way and speeding up.
When searching for answers about near future cycle events involving the Atlantic, one would probably do a lot better to pay attention to the hurricane guru from Homer, Alaska! Levi, the 19 year old guru knows more about hurricanes and the related weather than most humans on earth. Give him a listen at his Tropical Tibits from the Tundra you tube presentations. He is a definitely well schooled in this area. and he’s not afraid to go out on a limb.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/
Mike says:
October 25, 2011 at 4:35 am
Caution about the Weather Underground link. They show SST in the eastern Gulf to be in the mid 80’s when it is actually in the low 70’s. See the color coded map here:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Hurricane-force winds currently covering a MAXIMUM 45 nautical mile diameter, and it’s not expected to get much bigger. Those areas that get hit may get hit hard, but for most it’ll be a big rainfall event with a decent breeze.
It does seem to have Cancun lined up to some degree, but whether hurricane-force winds will even make it ashore is up in the air, so to speak.
Regarding SSTs, parts of the eastern Gulf are in the 80s but the US shores are cooling fairly rapidly over the past week, with temperatures barely in the low 70s everywhere except southern Florida. The cooler temps should continue to spread south now, and in itself should cut the fuel supply off any TCs that might head that way in what remains of the season. I wouldn’t anticipate anyone there needing to board up their windows until next year at the earliest, although a few gusts and some downpours can’t be ruled out.
Well the quick spin-up seems to have run out of puff in the face of a bit of wind shear. Given the forecast differences between upper and lower-level wind directions, Rina is going to get ripped apart and spin down fairly soon.
The satellite loops show Rina getting pinched on the southern side, with the eye gone and upper outflow showing no sign of any upper-level high pressure to aid intensification. I reckon she’ll be struggling to hold onto hurricane status by the time she waves hello to Cancun, and by Friday lunchtime you can stick a fork in her – she’ll be done.
Still nothing resembling a circulation centre for 97, which is starting to look like it won’t be doing much on the Atlantic side at least.
Hi from Playa del Carmen we are happy to let you know we will have strong rains but no hurricane winds, and Rina will probably do a u turn when in Cancun, to go back south, but even if it is smart to watch at it, all the Yucatan peninsula coast area and the Gulf too, are safe.
Hotels and restaurants will be 100% open starting tomorrow. friday. 27th.
Glad she’s fizzled out as expected Andrea.
I noticed a small circulation centre in the eastern Atlantic a couple of days ago, that NHC are now tracking. I don’t see it coming to much, but it might end up merging with one of a sequence of winter storms set to traverse the Atlantic. A bit of tropical moisture to add to the mix could make for quite a tasty storm in a week or more in western Europe.