At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
Why do I get the feeling this sucker will take the far eastern track and hit Martha’s Vineyard just in time to catch the last of Zero’s vacation?
I failed to poste my prediction when it was first requested.
Still predicting a landfall around Virginia, but not sure if the eye will actually cross over land.
Not much hope left of Irene bringing any rain to Texas it would appear.
Where’s that parade of worse than we thought globally warmed hurricanes?
I think that this hurricane will be a beast when it makes landfall. I don’t think anyone has a clue as to where it will actually go. Here is my prediction…
(Every time the United States has told Israel to give up land for peace or they tell Israel to do something against their best interests the United States is hit with a major disaster. Don’t believe me? Look Up a guy named John Muncy on youtube. Check out his video series about how America curses itself whenever the president (republican or democrat) or his minions tell Israel to give up land. It is some fascinating stuff. If it happened just one time it could be written off as a mere coincidence. But tens of times since 1991? Thats a little eerie.)
C’mon Manfred, the US does something stupid vis-a-vis Israel — on a regular basis; repub or dem.
The models are predicting a South Carolina hit, but I should remind people that it could waffle too….
I think its entirely possible for it to head out towards sea on a northward track and miss everything. Odds are, if it misses land in the Carolinas, then odds are it will hit nothing but *possibly Mass./Canada and that area. I wouldn’t rule anything out, but I think it will hit the N. And S Carolina border around Myrtle Beach. That is my edujumacated guess.
The storm has slowly been tracking on less westward route and I think this will continue making what I said probably the gist of it. Unfortunatly, looks as though it will be Cat. 3 or 4 when it hits. Possibly higher if it takes longer to hit land.
They get better at forecasting every year but they have tended to underpredict the curvature near the GA & SC coast. We worry but NC gets hit.
The track they are showing right now has it pointed directly at me, here in the middle of central coastal South Carolina. I work at a bread factory and we’re starting emergency production to try to get product out early to cover the days afterwards. We’re going to be running non-stop for as long as we can safely continue. We provide bread all the way from North Carolina down to about 1/3 the way into Florida. Thankfully, my house is about an hour farther inland than this factory.
Guess it’s a good thing I’m going to go down to Florida next week to visit the ‘home I will retire to at the end of 2012’. Looks like the track keeps moving eastward out to sea as the week progresses. Saturday the track was straight up the middle of Florida, now it shows about 200 miles off shore.
Here’s what I don’t understand. The center of rotation is 100 miles north of any land, but, NOAA puts the eye right over the Dominican Republic. What is going on here? I just checked the Cabarete wind speed, and, it’s only 12 knots… far from hurrcane force. Is the major media just going for the big lie here, because, I don’t see a hurricane force wind. Check it yourself: http://www.windfinder.com/windreports/windkarte_carib.htm
Why did I not designate North Carolina? I think that it will run along the coast between North Carolina and Virgina, but I doubt that the eye will actually cross over the land.
Actually, it will all depend upon what is happening around Northern California today and the interactions of the low pressure systems when they interact.
So for the moment it looks like it’s headed for SC. Still way to far out to tell. If it takes a slightly more westward path than currently projected, it could hit Florida, if it veers more eastward it could miss the US completely. I’m currently in the 50% probability Zone for TS force winds, so even if it stays away from landfall near here I expect some strong “breezes” so to speak.
@DEEBEE And? Go check out John Muncy, you will be astounded. Incidentally Both the Joplin Tornado and the Tuscaloosa tornado struck within 24 hours of Obama telling Israel to give up land. [snip]
It’s pretty amazing how well the models predicted this storm before the wave was even noticed. I started a thread about it on another site on 8/16! And that was only after noticing the run to run consistency for about three days. Normally I don’t put much stock in a forecast 10+ days out but the models were really consistent with this storm and now it looks like they had everything but the exact track right.
The latest model spread has it hitting from FL to NY:
http://i55.tinypic.com/1jlr9d.jpg
It is always interesting to go to the hurricane details page on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov then choose ‘Archive’ from the top menu bar. Then in the Archive choose Graphics Archive (the only entry in the top menu bar). Then choose “5-Day Track Forecast, Uncertainty Cone, and Watch/Warning” from the list of archives. Watch the movement of the predictions as the storm gets closer.
Manfred José Nissley says:
August 22, 2011 at 12:52 pm
I hear there’s almost always a Full Moon two weeks before or after Obama tells Israel to give up land.
Gary Swift, when did you get the order from FEMA for the emergency production?
(Just kidding… Thank the “invisible Hand” that we have businesses than think and act for themselves.)
The track currently shown at the top of this page from NHC, places the eye directly on top of Charleston SC on Saturday morning. That’s a heavily populated area and a major port. That’s exactly where Hugo made landfall too. We really don’t need another one of those.
@Manfred, you’ll excuse people if they equate that with the *correlation* of pirates and temperature, I hope?
Looks like Fran.
why is it they’re naming every band of thunderstorms this year? Irene the first one to possibly be dangerous?? If they keep it up we’ll have “tropical depression Omega” come november… Anyway this one looks a lot like heading out to sea
Does anyone know any cheap or free software that tracks hurricanes? There used to be a small freeware application (that I lost in one-of-many computer upgrades) that gave a simple display similar to the second illustration. The program could also display historical tracks for comparison.
“Twenty people have escaped unhurt from a fire that broke out at Sir Richard Branson’s luxury home in the Caribbean.
British actress Kate Winslet was among those staying on Necker Island in the British Virgin Islands when a tropical storm broke out and lightning hit the house, said Sir Richard.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14616123
Carbon War Room, eh?
New 12z 22 aug. NAM, has storm placed much further west at 84 hours (175 miles). Close enough to warrant hurricane warnings for southern east coast Florida. Why? it has the northern energy less amplified then the coarse global models at 84 hours .if this is correct SC and NC are going to get hit hard, with inland landfall. The NAM is our best northern stream model, so when the
NAM, speaks forecasters listen. First high accuracy short range models says “[Head ] west, young storm.” In short it does
not agree with coarser long range models with regard to northern energy. Nam limit is 84 hours.
Anthony,
Can we leave this (and future hurricanes) stuck to the top of the page? We’re using all of these at our state EMA and it’d be great if we could use WUWT as our one-stop source.
JDN, where does NOAA put the eye, such as it is, over the Dom Rep? nhc.noaa.gov has it out to sea, with tropical storm-force winds barely brushing the coast.
Looking at the latest satellite loops, it appears that Irene is finally getting properly organised, with some very deep and symmetrical convection growing ever-broader slap-bang over the circulation centre. It’s still just a CDO (central dense overcast) at present, but a visible eye should be forming pretty soon. In fact, the visible image from 20:45 UTC shows the very beginnings of one (at least I hope it’ll grow a bit – it better not be a pinhole eye). This may be the preliminaries of some pretty rapid intensification.
What could be the saving grace is evident in the two most recent satellite images available at the time of writing, between 20:15 and 20:45 UTC. May well just be another wobble, but the movement is definitely on the north side of north-west. Fingers crossed Irene’s starting to break through the ridge early, giving her plenty of time to curve away from the USA, and not make a direct hit on most of the Bahamas. The next two hours will give a firmer indication.
Earlier this year someone noted that there had never been 3 years in a row when no hurricane made landfall in the USA. After none in 2009 and 2010, this would be such a third year. Except Irene is #1 in line to make sure that 2011 doesn’t go the way of 2009 and 2010. But this #1 could still miss, and be a TS when it hits New England instead – but I don’t believe the models will be _that_ far out.
Rich.
My wife is in the Puerto Plata, DR north coast area. I just called and she tells me there is a warning but presently it is a nice refreshing rain without a strong wind. I predict this baby is going to fizzle somewhere off the mid US coast – oh I think there will be lots of rain along the coast.
Jim Patrick says:
August 22, 2011 at 1:54 pm
Does anyone know any cheap or free software that tracks hurricanes? There used to be a small freeware application (that I lost in one-of-many computer upgrades) that gave a simple display similar to the second illustration. The program could also display historical tracks for comparison.
If you want to look at models you could try Mike’s weather page at http://spaghettimodels.com/ Anthony may find it interesting too.
I usually end up on Wunderground for hurricane tracking and info, because of the way they present all of the charts/tracks/models.
One thing that seems strange about this one is that they “forecasts” are calling for landfall in the Carolinas, but if you click on the model map, the models all seem in agreement that it’s offshore going past the Carolinas and heads right up to Mass/Maine.
Don’t think I’ve seen the difference between models and forecast like this on any storm previous.
JimB
I’m just north of West Palm Beach and we start gathering hurricane supplies at the beginning of every summer. We prepare and its no big deal. I’d still rather deal with these than -30degree midwestern winters with 60mph winds where no power means you freeze to death…
@Keith. says:
August 22, 2011 at 2:21 pm
JDN, where does NOAA put the eye, such as it is, over the Dom Rep?
ON the map at the top of this page, second image, the center of the storm is depicted by NOAA as being right on the coast of the Dom. Rep.
Looks to me that Irene is tracking further and further out and will not make landfall.
One question though: is there an official definition for “landfall”? Does the eye need to cross land?
I use Stormpulse – not sure what models they use , but most are projecting a more easterly path than they were a few hours ago .
http://stormpulse.com/
Emily was a fickle thing and messed with men’s minds.
This Irene though, she’s got her mind made up … all that’s left to do is figure her out.
When the forecast track was still at the tip of Florida, I was guessing for the N/S Carolina border, which is where the latest forecast puts it. I guess it may slip even further east and maybe even miss a direct hit on the Carolinas. She may just keep on leaving men guessing.
My prayers with those who may get hit if this does become a monster. Early yesterday, it was projected to only be a hurricane briefly and would hit FL as a tropical storm.
From a statistical perspective, this will be the first US landfall in almost 3 years (nearly a record drought) and the first major US landfall in over 5 calendar years (also nearly a record drought). But I am sure this will have “global warming” written all over it if it does do a lot of damage as a major cane.
“likely Category 4” ? Really? NOAA is saying “likely strong hurricane” (cat 3 at least) .. but the probability chart doesn’t even support that assertion. It’s showing a 4% probability in 72 hours. diminishing after that. It just sounds like you’re rooting for it to become big.
I suggest you look again. It’s north of the coast, with tropical storm-force winds set to just brush the north coast. As with all northern hemisphere storms, the strongest winds are always to the right of the centre due to the direction of circulation. Check this plot from the NOAA:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205112.shtml?radii#contents
The only hurricane-force winds are in a maximum 25 nautical-mile strip to the north east of the centre. There are no hurricane-force winds in any other quadrant. Heading south-west of the centre, tropical storm-force winds only extend up to 40 nautical miles from the centre.
See here for details:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/222050.shtml
Indeed, the radii of hurricane-force winds are forecast to contract even further. Might actually be a pinhole eye on its way.
Hi Madman2001,
There is indeed an official definition: “The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.”
Of course, the absence of a landfall doesn’t mean that field of the strongest winds won’t hit land – ‘landfall’ is very much a technical term, rather than denoting the striking or otherwise of land by hurricane-force winds.
Unless a large eye develops, it’s unlikely that Irene would bring hurricane-force winds to the US coast in the absence of an actual landfall. Let’s hope it keeps ducking to the right…
I hope it doesn’t hit us here in Nova Scotia. It could do hundreds of dollars worth of damage.
@Manfred José Nissley
Or every time israel doesn’t return occupied lands the US gets it from mother nature
@TimO “-30degree midwestern winters with 60mph winds where no power means you freeze to death…”
I’m not sure what they do in the midwest, but here in VT we cut, split, and stack firewood. You don’t need electricity to keep warm, just a wood stove.
“Einar Rønbeck Evensen says:
August 22, 2011 at 1:41 pm
why is it they’re naming every band of thunderstorms this year? Irene the first one to possibly be dangerous?? ”
There has been a paradigm shift that actually makes sense. They have decided to err on the side of caution and make sure that people are as prepared and warned as possible. Just because a tropical storm doesn’t make landfall doesn’t mean that it is safe for people on the water or flying in the path of a storm. Just my opinion, but I agree with the decision to report large disturbances and issue warning earlier than they used to. That’s what we really pay those people for, right?
Gary Swift says:
August 22, 2011 at 4:47 pm
” Just my opinion, but I agree with the decision to report large disturbances and issue warning earlier than they used to. That’s what we really pay those people for, right?”
No Gary, their job is to consistently tell the truth, the same truth, about weather, in a manner that allows intelligent people to make rational decisions of their own. They are not paid to be chicken little shills for the disasturbationist movement.
There is a cold front just clearing the East coast which will likely interact with the system and push it eastward out to sea at about the latitude of Jacksonville FL-could see the flow in upper air being west to east north of about latitude 30. The recent jog to the north in the motion of the storm could be the beginnings of this-but we shall see.
Regarding my comment above – placing your cursor on the lines of each model will give you the source .
Hampton Roads.
Nature’s thermostat has clicked on….like clockwork.
Let the cooling begin!
The NHC issued a special advisory due to recent data from the hurricane hunters. Normally advisories come out at 0500, 1100, 1700, and 2300 ET
Hurricane Irene Special Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092011
830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
The hurricane hunter aircraft found a 850-mb flight level wind
maximum of 106 kt on its first pass through the center of Irene.
Based on this…the initial intensity is adjusted upward to 85 kt.
Over the past couple of hours the satellite presentation of the
hurricane has continued to improve…although no eye is visible yet
in geostationary imagery. However…an eye has become apparent on
the San Juan doppler radar and was also seen in a 2230 UTC SSMIS
pass. The central pressure has fallen to 981 mb based on a
dropsonde observation of 982 mb with 10 kt of wind at the surface.
Given that the environment appears conducive for additional
strengthening…the intensity forecast has been adjusted upward by
15 kt through 36 hours with a smaller upward adjustment at 48 and
72 hours. Only slight weakening is indicated at days 4 and 5. The
new forecast now shows Irene becoming a major hurricane on Tuesday
as it moves through the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos islands. The wind radii have been expanded based on aircraft
data and the new intensity forecast.
No changes have been made to the track forecast on this special
advisory.
If it does hit North Carolina, it has potential to be produce another Hurricane Floyd type flooding on the Tar River.
I well remember Hurricane Floyd, I knew several people who woke up the morning after and only had time to save themselves because the waters rose so fast. Major flooding was along the Tar/Pamlico River because the city of Rocky Mount (which is neither rocky nor a mountain) had to release the dam at its water reservoir on the Tar River. Unfortunately, due to a prior hurricane, the city’s reservoir was already full. The area around the city’s reservoir received 15 inches of rain. All in all, most of North Carolina received no less than 10 inches of rain in a short period. So between that and the dam being released, people downstream of the dam were in trouble. Water kept coming in upstream, so the dam had to stay open. People who lived along the Tar River in Rocky Mount were the first to feel its wrath. They were the ones who had no warning. Next were the people in Princeville, which was on land given to freed slaves and thus bad land to begin with. The entire town of Princeville was flooded out. Tarboro, which shares a border with Princeville, also had major flooding. A few days later, Greenville was next. And so on. A lot of land on the Tar River, which becomes the Pamlico River at the small city of Washington, is flat and has farms on it. A lot of pig farms were flooded, releasing pig waste and drowned pig carcasses into the water.
Most of North Carolina has had little rain this summer. Most areas, except unfortunately the area around the Rocky Mount reservoir. The past week, the area has had about 5 inches of rain from thunderstorms, this month it has had 10 inches of rain. The water reservoir is full and probably will stay that way because upstream also has had big rains, just not as much. I drove by there this Sunday. Joe Bastardi keeps saying this is much like Hurricane Floyd, and that has me worried. If this storm does make landfall in North Carolina, watch the Tar River closely.
However, the situation is not as bleak as it might seem. FEMA condemned many properties that are likely to flood again, so fewer people are in danger of rising waters. Princeville now has a levee to help protect it from rising water. And people still remember Hurricane Floyd and will take Irene seriously.
Gary Swift says:
August 22, 2011 at 12:16 pm
” I work at a bread factory and we’re starting emergency production to try to get product out early to cover the days afterwards.”
That’s the “yeast” you can do…(Sorry, the devil made me do it :-))
Link to a great site for tracking storms and their projected paths:
http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic
Shows where more than 12 different models from various weather resources are currently predicting the track of the hurricane.
Including the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) and the US Navy (NOGAPS) models
Be sure to click “Forecast Models” to ON in the upper right corner.
Nova Scotia/Maritimes have good reason to be concerned. If the current track DOES bring her that way and she’s still a hurricane, it could raise hell with the targa race up in Newfoundland, among many other things, that would total far more than a hundred dollars.
JimB
A lot will depend on how fast the cold front degrades, so far each of the new model runs has pushed the storm further and further east. For myself, tomorrow is check out the chainsaw and stock up on things day.
Tim Bromige says:
August 22, 2011 at 4:24 pm
I hope it doesn’t hit us here in Nova Scotia. It could do hundreds of dollars worth of damage.
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=en&n=222F51F7-1
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/06/u-s-east-coast-is-the-next-wild-weather-target/
While the center of the hurricane looks like it will most likely continue to move more towards an easterly track this does not lessen the effects of high surf on coastal areas. Erosion, heavy rain and very high tides can do their damage 100s of miles from the storm center.
1954
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C4829A9-1
1954
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C4829A9-1
jet pack says:
August 22, 2011 at 3:26 pm
“likely Category 4″ ? Really? NOAA is saying “likely strong hurricane” (cat 3 at least) .. but the probability chart doesn’t even support that assertion. It’s showing a 4% probability in 72 hours. diminishing after that. It just sounds like you’re rooting for it to become big.
============================
Huh?
Exactly when does trying to decipher the truth of the situation become “you’re rooting for it to become big.”
All bets are off on this one dude.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
They say ‘The eyes have it!”…. but Irene seems to be a reluctant cyclops. Her eye has tried to form and ‘open’ several times on the radars but keeps winking and closing. Maybe when she leaves the chain of islands, she’ll gain sufficient energy to open her eye and have a look around?!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_radar.html
My daughter Emily is exceedingly disappointed. 🙂
NRL Monterey has great graphics and lots of buttons to play with 😉
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/tropics.cgi?REGION=atlantic&SECTOR=tropics&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Full&INTERVAL=Most_Recent&PRODUCT=ir_color&PATH=/atlantic/tropics/ir_color&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant
The advent and track of Hurricane Irene confirms WeatherAction 85 days ahead forecast in detail to within a day; see TWITPIC http://twitpic.com/6a89xr and ongoing comment / monitor http://bit.ly/qv2YJk and is part of WeatherAction Whole Season Atlantic Region Tropical storm Forecast (June to Nov). Please pass on to those whom could use such long range warnings.
Thanks Piers Corbyn.
[ryanmaue: um, i’m a bit skeptical of this TwitPic. could you please provide a link to the PDF it came from to verify your claims?]
REPLY: Double ditto Ryan. Piers, show where and when this claim was published. – Anthony
Another storm has apparently moved on with a whimper-
http://www.nsf.gov/oig/search/A09120086.pdf
I think that Irene will probably hit catagory 5 status sometime in its life, it is strengthing in rapid bursts, and it is hard to forecast with that pattern, It will probably hit the US as it is slightly weaking, but still a major hurricane. I wonder how far inland the heavy rain and wind will go with this large system
The question for the day is how many other years did the first hurricane of the season start with the letter “I”?
00z GFS has Irene visiting the Big Apple. The media will be all over this story…
1938 New York hurricane would be due for a rerun either last year with Earl or Igor, or this year with Irene, just like the 1974 tornadoes had a re run this year. My personal thoughts is Irene will be kept off shore some where between the tracks of Earl and Igor, but don’t let my random thoughts get in the way of a good window breaker in NY City.
If this storm follows the track currently predicted, of moving north through the chain of the Bahama’s islands, it will be less than a hurricane by the time it makes it to 28°N. We’re too dry, the water is too cold and the dust from the Sahara is too heavy.
Richard Holle says:
August 22, 2011 at 11:38 pm
Living in New England, I’m not all that familiar with the effects of the 1938 hurricane there. Tropical storms tend to be fast movers here, and 1938 was no exception, so the winds were stronger on the east side of the storm. Hence the major damage to Rhode Island and storm surge in Providence. The eye did cross the middle of Long Island, so eastern Long Island suffered major damage.
Conditions before the storm will not be similar. Previous major rains left New England ground saturated and made trees much more suseptible to blowdowns than they are now. One huge tree named the Sentinel Pine in New Hampshire’s Franconia Notch fell and still exists as the floor of a pedestrian covered bridge.
The 1938 storm was the first of several in the active period from then to the early 1960s. We’ve been very lucky the current active period that started in 1995 hasn’t brought a significant hurricane here yet. (The last big storm, Bob, was in 1991.)
Out of what will it take power?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
“Stephen Rasey says:
August 22, 2011 at 1:25 pm
Gary Swift, when did you get the order from FEMA for the emergency production?
(Just kidding… Thank the “invisible Hand” that we have businesses than think and act for themselves.)”
Yeah, we were actually thinking that people will start cleaning the shelves and if our product is the only thing on the shelf then we can make a windfall (not pun intended) over the next few days.
This storm looks ominously like Hugo, as so many people here are happy to point out. The predicted track for Hugo was moving farther out to sea, and it didn’t look like it was going to be too strong. Then at the last minute, it strengthened and turned west, right onto the unsuspecting coast.
“Mike Lorrey says:
August 22, 2011 at 5:07 pm
Gary Swift says:
August 22, 2011 at 4:47 pm
” Just my opinion, but I agree with the decision to report large disturbances and issue warning earlier than they used to. That’s what we really pay those people for, right?”
No Gary, their job is to consistently tell the truth, the same truth, about weather, in a manner that allows intelligent people to make rational decisions of their own. They are not paid to be chicken little shills for the disasturbationist movement.”
I respectfully disagree with your opinion. The people tracking the storms and issueing warnings are, in most cases, not the same people who try to associate it with global warming BS later. The NHC does not depend on AGW funding to make a living. I consider them to be the “good guys”. The people you are talking about are another sort entirely.
Every single model run has moved it more and more to the east. It may hit the outer banks of NC, and it may only be a glancing blow. Too bad the models don’t seem to do recursive analysis of their own historical storm predictions and run it against the actuals. This would help compensate for the storms that curve outside the model guide which as a WAG is about 25%.
/ex-surfer – old habits die hard – But either way, it is going to be EPIC in FL Friday and Saturday. Strong enough for full offshore winds as the storm passes.
Get the tracking from the experts:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5NLW.shtml
Boy, we could use some rain from Irene here in western MD. Some years tropical storms are the only source of precip here in late summer/early autumn.
I expect it will veer eastward just in time to miss me.
Richard Holle says:
August 22, 2011 at 11:38 pm
1938 New York hurricane would be due for a rerun either last year with Earl or Igor, or this year with Irene, just like the 1974 tornadoes had a re run this year.
The Great New England Hurricane also required a blocking high to its east, and a trough to the west to funnel it north at 50mph, meaning it didn’t have time to lose its strength over the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic.
Track continues to pull east, now aimed at NC (yesterday at SC). If, and I stress if this shifting of tracks is a pattern, then in a couple days I would expect it to no longer be forecast to make landfall at all, or if that, make it in Virginia. HOWEVER! I doubt this is a persistent pattern. Probably we will see future tracks fluctuate between the Carolinas for a while. As always there is some possibility of a radical change in track. Nobody is out of the woods until the storm is dead in the water.
The way her track keeps shifting to the east, by the time she hits anything, it’s liable to be she’ll be washing out the vacationers at Martha’s Vineyard.
http://www.fleetstreetfox.com/2011/08/theres-storm-coming.html
given how Haiti is still awaiting all that aid money….
Perhaps all the dry cold air blowing southeast from Canada will push this thing away from the coast.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_common+/24h/
Our local independent weather expert in the Richmond, VA area, Dave Tolleris of WXRISK.COM, say’s it looks like the eye may be passing right over Richmond. His analysis is always interesting.
http://www.wxrisk.com/
The high pressure flow predominantly off shore will push the storm east. Also there is a frontal boundary in place to deal with just off the east coast that will help suck it east.. Looks unlikely to be significant.
Regardless, it will provide news for the seekers of hype.
I vacation every year on Ocracoke Island, NC & just heard they gave the evacuation order. Good luck to anyone in the path – hopefully it will head out to sea.
I liked the display of models on the site:
http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic
But it did make my cranky old computer run a bit slowly.
You can also get the various model tracks on the Weatherbell free site. Just hit the tab marked Hurricane, and check the “forcast model tracks” box.
http://www.weatherbell.com/
Looks like the models are shifting it east. No tracks through NH any more, but one bicects Boston.
The tracks will probably start switching back to the west at some point, the question is at what point? Remember, its a spinning storm, and since it hit islands and such, this changes the storm outlook to a large extent. If and once it regains strength, it will probably as I said switch to the west/south slightly which means we are probably still looking at a likely N. Carolina/VA/SC hit.
We should know for sure in the next day to a large extent. The track will change a little in the next 24 and this should allow the models to predict it well enough to know for sure. Right now, its a lot of guess-work to figure out even what part of the coast it will hit (if it does.) It could still potentially waffle, but if the track doesn’t show this within the next 24 hours, it probably will not.
It better shift E, or around here Sunday Am is going to be interesting.
Chronos Baraka… BABAKA…
Michael Tobis says:
The only way to simplify ourselves out of the present mess is by cutting our population 80%, unfortunately.
Individual actions are well and good, but as Gore said in his Noble lecture, and as Obama sed about his lightbulbs, they aren’t enough. Not even close.
Woulda been quite a show if the Virginia earthquake had held off till Sunday or so; people piling out of hi-rises, only to be blown into piles up against windblocks, or being flushed down storm drains overflowing with rain and storm surge, with maybe a few feet of assist from a tsunami …
Oh, well.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
One more revision and this thing is totally off the coast.
Goodnight Irene.
Don’t know …. but here is the list of names and descrips/intensities so far this year:
2011 Atlantic hurricane season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Your question could be answered a little research conducted on this webpage though:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_seasons
A sample of the strongest storms with names that had high ordinal value letters whose years might be checked to see when the first hurricane was named:
Janet – 1955
Mitch – 1998
Keith – 2000
Wilma – 2005
.
The track keeps getting farther east, and most of the computer models now show the eye will miss the US entirely.
[ryanmaue: um, i’m a bit skeptical of this TwitPic. could you please provide a link to the PDF it came from to verify your claims?]
Come now Ryan, do you get Joe’s forecasts free these days? 😉
[ryanm: yes, since he uses my graphics. i come up with my own forecasts, which I plot up and provide free of charge to whoever]
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
Posted only because I love maps.
COOL!!! Cyclone Page!!!
Jim, it’s the most named storms before one has become a hurricane since at least 1950 (which is as far back as I;ve gone), and is therefore probably a record, beating 2002 when Gustav was the first hurricane. However, 1994 saw Florence become a hurricane as the 11th tropical cyclone of the season (Irene’s the ninth), and not until November 4th.
Bear in mind, of course, that prior to extensive satellite coverage, some of the storms identified this season would not have been picked up.
“Michael Tobis says:
The only way to simplify ourselves out of the present mess is by , unfortunately, cutting our population 80%.”
I strongly disagree. There’s plenty of room on the planet for all. The more the merrier. I’ve lived in crowded parts of the world, and in crowded houses, and it is perfectly possible for people to not only get along, but be very happy while doing so. Problems can always be solved.
People who talk about reducing the world population by 80% are fearful problems will overwhelm them, but their solution to the problem of increased population is a terrible problem in and of itself, for it is tantamount to a genocide involving 4 or 5 billion of our fellow men and woman.
“Cutting our population 80% ” involves a nightmare that makes a Major Hurricane look like a weak kitten. Have care, when entertaining such thoughts.
manfred should go back to his homeland
Central pressure down to 969mb now. Expect this to be reflected in the wind speeds in a few hours.
Now it’s aiming for New Jersey! I’m not ready to go out on a limb yet, but it looks like the trend is pushing toward tracks increasingly away from hitting anywhere.
And with the fall in pressure we finally have a proper eye appearing on the 0015 UTC NHC infrared image, rather than the closing of gaps in cloud bands of earlier today. If the wind shear doesn’t pick up and blow the top off it, this could be the prelude to some real ramping-up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg
Don’t worry, America, we’ll take care of that pesky hurricane for you
Sincerely,
Mr Cold Front
Canada
PS. See you in January
a) Need to be specific as to which Jim (I am _Jim and have always been so).
b) Storms only began being named in the 50’s (pointed out in my link above)
c) Pls re-read my post; I understood the question … I just didn’t want to do the research!
.
Hurricane Widget.
Not a bad name for an actual hurricane, come to think of it.
Hopefully the storm will pass just a bit further east of Hatteras than currently forecast, give NE NC some rain for the Dismal Swamp fire and leave me alone. Storms on this track can cause flooding in Hampton Roads but usually the winds are not too high as the long trek up from Hatteras slows it down a lot.
If it goes west and interacts with the front currently over the midwest we can get another Floyd, which had moderate to strong winds, lost the top of a few trees, but an awful large amount of rain. 19 inches at the closest WS to me.
Sorry _Jim, that was for Jim 😉
If you include numbers as well as names, it’s the latest in the list ever (but qualified by improved observational capability).
Category 3 status now reached; winds 115mph, central pressure 957mb. Official direction is now 300 degrees, so the turn may now be underway, in case any Floridians and Georgians were still worried about whether Irene would stubbornly maintain her path (and if Dave Springer was still hoping for a miracle – sorry Dave).
If the models are correct, it looks like New England gets it on Sunday afternoon…
I’m thinking now that Irene will remain off the coast and may brush parts of the coastline…let’s see what the models say later on today…
By the way, a great resource for hurricane information and forecasts is http://www.spaghettimodels.com. Check it out.
Looks like it’s headed for Martha’s Vineyard and then Maine.
Of course, if a climate scientist were to render a forecast, he’d have it clipping the tip of Florida and then finally making landfall on the southern coast of Lousianna.
I don’t think the ‘cane’s eye will make landfall anywhere in the USA but it certainly is going to brush up next to the East Coast.
Credit where credit is due:
“Nick Shaw says:
August 22, 2011 at 11:25 am
Why do I get the feeling this sucker will take the far eastern track and hit Martha’s Vineyard just in time to catch the last of Zero’s vacation?”
Nice call Nick –
Propososed offshore wind facilities and infrastructure (east coast US)
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/10/12/google-builds-to-the-jersey-shore/
Track of Hurricane Irene…
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
wow global warming in action told ya sarc
Wherever it goes, its field of storm-force winds is very nearly as broad as that of a certain other storm six years ago.
Spring Point airport on Acklins Island about to take a direct hit. Be interesting to see the METAR data for there right now…
Could someone explain what forces suggest Irene will head up the East Coast? I can understand the forecasting showing a gradual movement further from the coast as time has elapsed, but I don’t understand the basis for all the models forecasting an east coast path, rather than an entry into the Gulf, either over FL or by scooting through the Straits of Florida.
Watching the GOES NW Atlantic satellite (@ NOAA; water vapor loop), Irene had been forecasted to head to the seam in the wind patterns that had been centered over GA/SC but appears to have shifted weakly to the south over FL over the last eight hours or so but looks like it may shift back to the north again. There’s been no notable shift in Irene’s trajectory, which seems to match up with wind patterns surrounding it (if you click on the HDW-High, -mid, & -low) but if those are the major factors, then it seems that continuing west may be just as likely as curling north. If upper level wind patterns are a predominant factor, the upper level pattern map at Spaghetti Models, wouldn’t that show favor for a westerly track over curling north?
I understand the Coriolis effect’s bias for curling north, but is that enough to offset the westerly wind patterns over the states which, right now, appear to be plugging/shunting Irene’s movement north while effectively offering a smooth escape/void to travel west?
What am I not taking into account or not looking at?
OT – I follow the sea ice page almost everyday because I believe it’s the only thing warmists have left in their arsenal. But what I don’t see is a margin of error on there. Someone who knows better than me, please inform me.
Earth had a synod conjunction with Neptune on the 22nd the Moon is maximum North on the 23rd, Irene has passed TS strength as a result of the Neptune conjunction, and is making the turn to the North, associated with the Lunar maximum North position.
This is the same timing as when Katrina made landfall, correlation is not causation unless it causes things to be predictable like this. Lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere not only create the meridional flow surges that become hurricanes, but the overall global circulation patterns as well. With the additional ionizational input from the Neptune conjunction into the global circuit there is enough energy to form something stronger than a TS or H1 or H2, which is all the Lunar effect can manage on its own.
“Dusty says:
August 24, 2011 at 7:57 am
Could someone explain what forces suggest Irene will head up the East Coast? ”
This map might show the reason. Notice the corridor of low pressure pointing North just off the coast of North Carolina. That should pull Irene towards it and that area of high pressure centered near the intersections of South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee will act like a barricade.
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/CustomGraphic/tgsfc1.gif
Michael Tobis says: “The only way to simplify ourselves out of the present mess is by cutting our population 80%, unfortunately.”
I presume you’re volunteering to lead the way with yourself….
Prayer
I think its goim\ng to set over the bahamas, the wave will pass, and it will suck right up near the gulf….they have been wrong before…remember Charlie, AND Katrina? Just have a feeling.
Gary Swift says:
August 24, 2011 at 9:17 am
This map might show the reason. Notice the corridor of low pressure pointing North just off the coast of North Carolina. That should pull Irene towards it and that area of high pressure centered near the intersections of South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee will act like a barricade.
——–
Seems possible. Is there an update for that gif, Gary? The two (blocking) highs you note had moved east earlier and now they are gone (on the NOAA satellite loops) , although the frontal line hasn’t changed much.
Checking Spaghetti models a couple of times this afternoon, it appears they’ve updated the models ; most are still holding to the curvature but they have all slide west at its start to keep up with the path of Irene, as Irene does not want to curve yet. Both those various tracks and the NOAA track seem to be running out of room to curve, to the point that Irene will have to make a 90 degree turn if she doesn’t start soon.
Irene’s curving now, and also may be starting an eyewall replacement. The ECMWF model is putting her further west later in the piece now though, so some sort of landfall looks more likely. Hopefully it will be as far north as possible to give cooler seas a good chance to weaken her (and maybe increased shear a chance to cut her up a bit).
Starting to wonder what the system SW of the Cape Verde islands might serve up. If the general synoptic pattern doesn’t change much, it might live a life similar to Irene’s, though it’s too early for us mortals to know at this stage. Ryan, Joe(s), Piers, any thoughts?
I do hope the computers and ensembles have accurately forecast Irene’s path. If Irene doesn’t turn Thursday as forecast, the round of golf I’ve booked Friday morning north of Tampa might be less than pleasant.
Well, it does look like Irene is headed our way (New England). Looks like landfall in NJ, CT, RI, MA on Sunday. Here in NH, we’re going to get LOTS of rain…
Just a thought, and it is actually on topic, but who else gets the feeling that the Obama administration is likely going to use Irene as cover for massive new spending? I read an article somewhere about how the WH was looking for ways to launch another round of
porkulusstimulus and it hit me; Irene will give them ample cover for the mother of all relief programs.Sorry for getting political, but I am getting very cynical these days…
I heard Joe say that Irene’s massive spread will hit all along the coast starting possibly as far south as the Outer Banks. New York and Long Island in particular were mentioned several times. (It was an interview on The Factor after all) The intensity will likely be falling fast, but Irene is packing a massive amount of water and energy — albeit spread out very wide. Joe figures this will rival 1985’s Hurricane Gloria and some of the great storms of the 50’s.
Take cover folks. T minus 3 days and counting.
Wow, the 18z model on Ryan’s page has Irene making a direct hit on NYC as a Cat 3 storm. The pane before it hits NYC has maximum winds of 143mph!
Here’s a screen cap of the 96 hour forecast: http://i55.tinypic.com/28b4cnq.jpg
That would be a major disaster!
Well, this is a teaching moment for my 5 year old. Irene looked like it was going to veer east, but now, not so much. I’m in north-westernmost VT (St.Albans area) and it look like we’re in for a bit of a storm. Oh well, it’s been pretty dry since the beginning of July, and we need the rain. I don’t remember the one that came through in ’05, but we survived it. Same with this one, I hope.
I’m sure we’ll know more once the hurricane models are adjusted upwards beyond observed measurements to help support the hurricane models.
So I read an article last week about this revolutionary concept called “seasteading.”
Umm…yeah…file that one in the Bad Idea Jeans folder.
Hopefully this thing swings further east or weakens substantially as it makes its way up the coastline.
The 00z GFS also has Irene slamming into NYC. The media is really starting to pick up this story now and hopefully getting the word out.
Is it just me, or is SHE heading for the coast of a sudden ?
EC is showing a landfall South of New York. At least in Australia in recent seasons, this ensemble has had an excellent track record of correctly predicting paths as much as 72 hours prior to landfall.
Much will depend on the angle Irene hits the coast at. As the 96 hour graphic linked above shows the maximum windsppeds will be occurring on the Eastern side of the system.
@Nick Shaw Hate to break it to you, but Obama’s vacation ends Saturday, and Irene won’t reach Martha’s Vineyard till Sunday night I believe assuming that it follows the predicted path.
Meanwhile, with everyone’s attention properly focused on Irene, a new tropical depression has formed (#10) out in the eastern Atlantic. It’ll probably get named later today (Jose). It has all the markings of a classic tiny fish storm. Forecasts have it fading away in several days.
Aye, seems 10 is going to break north quite early, so will barely get across to the central Atlantic. Interesting for some of those more cynical of the NHC/NOAA that the suggestions are that the system may have already been at storm strength (and therefore worthy of being named), but they’ve taken a conservative approach and kept it at depression status for now.
Many in the media and the Team may hype things up beyond belief, but the guys actually monitoring and tracking these things do a good, solid job from what I can see.
The ECMWF has performed excellently this season, so any suggestions from it that NYC may be directly in the firing line should really be taken seriously. Increased wind shear may well bring the intensity down a category or two by the time it’s in the area, but it seems there’s going to be some serious weather there come what may. Whoever’s first up on Louis Armstrong court on Monday should probably cancel that early alarm call…
Oh cool – the NWS forecast has the storm going over me at 2200 on Sunday. 180 degree windshift and all that. This link might work (or visit http://www.weather.gov/ and enter 03303 for the “City, ST”. Then click on “hourly weather graph”. Hmm, it shows Nashua (03062) in an eye for much of the night.)
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=hi&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=thunder&w8=rain&AheadHour=61&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=43.23160&textField2=-71.56010&site=all&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0
50+ mph winds, which make me worry about a couple trees near the house.
Latest shows it as being TS Irene by the time it reaches NH, having brushed the Carolinas and slamming into southern New England. New Haven CT could get hit fairly hard, I think.
The model tracks are starting to come close to the 1821 hurricane; its center hit near where Kennedy Airport is today. The difference is that the 1821 hurricane was estimated to have been moving at 40 MPH+ and Irene is may be moving as slowly as 10-15 MPH. I live in Northeast NJ and am VERY worried about this one. The potential for flooding alone makes thie storm potentially catastrophic, add in predicted winds of 70 MPH and 5-10 foot storm surge at the coast and we have a major disaster in the making.
And the chorus of “we told you so” by CAGW believers will be deafening…
@Ric Werme:
You should get quite an event if the track holds. I’m going to park my vehicles away from the big old maple trees Sunday through Tuesday…
Leon Brozyna says:
August 24, 2011 at 6:12 am
“Of course, if a climate scientist were to render a forecast, he’d have it clipping the tip of Florida and then finally making landfall on the southern coast of Lousianna.”
Only if George Bush was still the President.
The forecast track’s shifted a bit west again and now it looks like this gal is headed straight for the Big Apple. The big question … will Al Roker cover this in Central Park or will he go atop 30 Rock for a Special Sunday Edition of the Today Show?
If it does hit NYC, then West Side Highway might, possibly, be underwater – 17 years ahead of hansen’s 1988 prediction of 40 years. Wow, he’s good.
Chris said “I live in Northeast NJ and am VERY worried about this one.”
You’re worried?!? I’m 10 miles in from the coast (Freehold area) and I’m half expecting an evacuation. Last storm that was even close to this my in-laws were without water for two weeks.
Chuck L noted the similarity of Irene’s current forecast track with the 1821 hurricane that ravaged New Jersey. Wikipedia has a nice summary of that storm, and a map of the track of hurricane right up the inland bays of the Jersey coast:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane
About as bad was the 1944 hurricane that tracked a bit offshore:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Great_Atlantic_Hurricane
They were still talking about the 1944 storm when Carol repeated the experience just ten years later:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Carol
I was a kid vacationing on the Jersey shore at the time, and had a joyous time swimming and frolicking in the rain and surge flooded streets and lots, much like the kids in Galveston played in the early flooding of the 1900 storm (read Isaac’s Storm). The difference was that while Carol moved on and the floods drained away, the Galveston storm rolled on in and those kids never saw the next day.
In 1985 Gloria followed the route of Carol and 1944:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria
By 1985 they had the sense to evacuate many coastal towns in New Jersey, including Cape May where my parents were vacationing.
All of the storms were cateogy 2 or 3 as they struck New Jersey, except the 1821 storm which may have been a 4.
It looks likely Irene will joing this list.
Of course, the entire eastern seaboard is already facing the terrifying and escalating deluge of MEDIA HYPE….!!!!!! As I recall, the prescribed advice is to: “Avoid prolonged exposure to the media. When exposed, liberally apply doses of rationality…”
Not to belittle what could be an ugly, damaging storm…but can’t we just do more ‘just in time’ worrying and not FREAK OUT ALL OVER THE PLACE????
Clarification–My comments were intended for the mainstream media, not the WUWT fellowship. And sincere good luck to those who are in Irene’s path!
@richard Keen
Thanks, Richard, that was fascinating to read. I wonder if it will arrive in the NYC area during a high or low tide? The thought of a 30′ storm surge during a high tide would certainly keep me away from the subways.
They have just ordered a mandatory evac of Ocean City MD and I live 5.5 miles west of that and only half a mile from one of the back bays. So I am not worrying about Irene, I’m packing up and getting ready to move out.
Bennett says:
August 25, 2011 at 1:08 pm
@richard Keen
Thanks, Richard, that was fascinating to read. I wonder if it will arrive in the NYC area during a high or low tide? The thought of a 30′ storm surge during a high tide would certainly keep me away from the subways.
I was just wondering that myself, so I had a look at the tide times for Long Beach:
http://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/locations/3406.html
Extrapolate that to the 28th and you get a high tide around 2pm. Look where the ‘H’ symbol is at 2pm on Sunday in the forecast track at the top…
Poo.
Hi Bennett,
I was wondering that myself, so I checked the tide times for Long Island. At 2pm, when the track forecast at the top of this page has an ‘H’ just by Long Island on Sunday, is low tide. Should be a very helpful mitigating factor in what’s still going to be a nasty scene.
Bennett says:
August 25, 2011 at 6:53 am
@Ric Werme:
> You should get quite an event if the track holds. I’m going to park my vehicles away from the big old maple trees Sunday through Tuesday…
I’m beginning to feel like a squirrel unsure of which way to run. The 1700 EDT forecast moved the track to the Connecticut River between NH and VT, but a private forecaster who used to come up with wonderfully detailed analyses thinks it’s an over reaction or should have been the morning forecast and shifted back this afternoon. (I.e. back to aimed at me).
The Concord area is far enough from the coast that the wind won’t be too extreme, though I’m thinking of doing some work to make sure Internet access stays up as long as possible if we lose power, a distinct possibility.
I have some childhood connections to Long Beach Island off new Jersey, I’ll be watching that closely Sunday PM. I think my daughter in MD will be fine. She gets to see it during daylight.
One good thing – my camera from 2003 died a few weeks ago. It’s replacement arrived today.
Question:
Why does the hurricane speed up? The image shows it travels a longer distance with each subsequent 24hrs.
Another question:
I remember from early this year with the talk on the hurricane that hit the Australian east coast that one issue raised was the speed at which the hurricane was moving. From memory I think one of the reasons given why the damage was less than expected is that the hurricane didn’t linger too long over any particular area. How fast is Irene moving and is this going to affect the level of damage it might cause?
Irene has the potential to produce life threatening conditions over an extensive section of the US East Coast. Hurricanes are unpredicatable and often threaten impending disaster but pass with out serious consequence. However, failure to take action and provide proper notification for a storm as dangerous as Irene can give rise to devastating results.
I think the media needs to be all over this. You can’t leave evacuations til the last moment when your talking about heavily populated areas potentially affected. Carrying out mass evacuations take time and planning.
Whilst crying wolf when there is no wolf could never be justified, crying wolf when theres one in the vicinity that poses a danger should never be criticised.
Ric Werme says:
August 25, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Yeah, the wife is worried but that’s her nature. I tell her that there’s only a 30% chance of strong winds at this point, but that the local NPR meteorologist mentioned the possibility of 6″ of rain in a 12 hour window. Thankfully I’m pretty elevated, but the long gravel driveway could suffer. I’ll cut it for drainage and hope for the best.
I wish I could ensure a connection to the net, but my setup doesn’t allow for it. I do look forward to seeing your photos!
Cheers,
Bennett in NW-VT
Keith says:
August 25, 2011 at 4:12 pm
Hi Keith,
I found the tide charts for Pimlico, SC and they are low at noon and “very high” at 6:30 PM. So it’ll be a potential problem for parts of North Carolina.
I wish everyone affected by this a good deal of luck, let’s hope Long Island is spared a huge storm surge.
Bennett
I live on Long Island and have lived through big storms before but is Algore visiting here this week? Just asking
Just a curiosity, today on msnbc Bill McKibben said that because of the record warm water along the coast that Irene’s middle name is “global warming”.
By all means please ensure your safety and that of family and pets. Sorry if my earlier post was obnoxious. I likely was oversensitive to the VA quake flurry of coverage. Fingers crossed for a big turn eastward and a fizzling out…
Last few frames here show eye moving north east! Maybe that’s a good sign.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html
Global warming, global cooling…all get blamed for weather. Here’s Time magazines take on it when the world was in the grip of the global cooling fever (June 24, 1974):
“As they review the bizarre and unpredictable weather pattern of the past several years, a growing number of scientists are beginning to suspect that many seemingly contradictory meteorological fluctuations are actually part of a global climatic upheaval. However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age.
Telltale signs are everywhere — from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice in the waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest.Since the 1940s the mean global temperature has dropped about 2.7° F.
Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been a noticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds — the so-called circumpolar vortex—that sweep from west to east around the top and bottom of the world. Indeed it is the widening of this cap of cold air that is the immediate cause of Africa’s drought. By blocking moisture-bearing equatorial winds and preventing them from bringing rainfall to the parched sub-Sahara region, as well as other drought-ridden areas stretching all the way from Central America to the Middle East and India, the polar winds have in effect caused the Sahara and other deserts to reach farther to the south. Paradoxically, the same vortex has created quite different weather quirks in the U.S. and other temperate zones. As the winds swirl around the globe, their southerly portions undulate like the bottom of a skirt. Cold air is pulled down across the Western U.S. and warm air is swept up to the Northeast. The collision of air masses of widely differing temperatures and humidity can create violent storms—the Midwest’s recent rash of disastrous tornadoes, for example.
…Whatever the cause of the cooling trend, its effects could be extremely serious, if not catastrophic. Scientists figure that only a 1% decrease in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth’s surface could tip the climatic balance, and cool the planet enough to send it sliding down the road to another ice age within only a few hundred years.”
So, global cooling also causes violent storms and tornadoes in the USA. The last paragraph is interesting in light of the CLOUD results. A 1% decrease in sunlight reaching the earth’s surface is a ‘tipping point’. All this stuff sounds so familiar: just change the odd word and it’s the global warming meme.
HR says:
August 25, 2011 at 5:43 pm
> Question:
> Why does the hurricane speed up? The image shows it travels a longer distance with each subsequent 24hrs.
This is typical when tropical storms get north of New Jersey or so. The jet stream above us starts dragging the storm northeast and they can really haul out by the time the remnants get to the maritimes.
With the high forward motion, the surface winds to the left of the track are significantly less than to the right. OTOH, there’s generally more rain to the left, especially if the storm merges with a weather front or has higher ground to enhance uplift.
South facing New England and Long Island can really get clobbered to the east of landfall thanks to wind and storm surge.
…… It’s Global Warmin’ wot dun it….. It caused New York’s earthquake too…;-)
Heard it weakened slightly this morning to a Cat2 with 110 mph winds.
Weakened yet again to 105 MPH. It must because of that “bizarrely high” SST that Jeff Masters says exist.
Yesterday the models proclaimed this storm would be a Cat-4. How did that work out? It doesn’t take a meteorologist to know if the ocean temperatures are much cooler this year than last year that it likely won’t get to Cat-4 strength that far north. Yesterday the models said this would be a strong Cat-3 hurricane over North Carolina. This morning the model said the storm would be a weak Cat-3 hurricane. Now the models are saying a strong Cat-2. Look at the ocean temperatures! They are cooler!
Since 95 mph is the highest Cat1 and 115 is the lowest Cat3, 105 is right in pretty near the middle of Cat2. Given the downward trend, the “worst ever” prognostications are starting to sound a bit silly.
What is up with the MSM, anyway? I agree that people should take Hurricanes seriously and GET OUT, but is using false alarmist predictions the best way to achieve that result? Won’t the long term loss of credibility lead to future refusals to heed serious warnings? This is a “boy who cried wolf” problem.
thanks Ric
12Z GFS shows it pretty strong in NYC.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlsfc.php?run=2011082612&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=051
Check out the rest of InstantWeatherMaps.com too… it’s by far the most impressive GFS map site I’ve seen (in addition to their huge selection, they put out most maps within 1-10 seconds of the raw data being on the NCEP server… by comparison, the second fastest I’ve seen has about a 2 minute delay).
My wife’s sister in Newport, NC, is leaving her manufactured home there for a motel about 7 miles north, in Havelock, with a friend from the outer banks, and her little dog. Hoping for the best. Glad to hear it has weakened somewhat. Better to over-prepare than under.
Stupid question here–but how much do or can cloud cover and wind/wave action ahead of the storm’s track de-fuel it by cooling SST’s?
So far good- Cooler air and ocean. I cannot abide the hysteria. The MSM in particular does
no one a service by “THE WORST EVVEERR!” scare bylines.. The warmists are largely to
blame: “Praise Gaia! and her Profit! the oracles have spoken! Cat Four! No,CatThree!
No wait! ” “Get that little dog out of here! pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!”
Unless it makes a big turn to the east, the latest satellite loops show it smacking into the southern coast of NC. My guess is that it will lose a bit of energy as it encounters the NC coast. However, it will still be a big rain and flooding threat as it approaches the northeast. I’m still planning on taking appropriate precautions here in New Hampshire.
I just saw on Drudge that Bloomberg is ordering 300,000 New Yorkers to flee the hurricane. I also heard on the news that much of the public transit system (forget the major city) is going to be closed down, a first it said.
Seems to me they are trying to make this into a bigger deal than what it might be.
Is it just me (a Brit living in England), or does anyone else think that Irene is getting hyped into a bigger deal than it really is, perhaps because it’s about the only hurricane there has been for two years, and the warmists are desperate for something to scare people with?
Also, I read somewhere that it’s very unusual (and therefore scary) for hurricanes to track this far east into the Atlantic. I’m not a big hurricane-watcher, but I thought that an awful lot of hurricanes track eastward up the US coast, and then out over the Atlantic where they eventually arrive up at dear old Blighty. We get about one a week, as best I can figure.
Too late for this one, but is there any mileage in a controlled nuclear explosion at selected height to diffuse hurricane pattern at earlier stage? I know it’s a horrible suggestion.
Tides for East 41st Street, New York City starting with August 25, 2011.
Day High Tide Height Sunrise Moon Time % Moon
/Low Time Feet Sunset Visible
F 26 Low 1:26 PM 0.5
F 26 High 7:45 PM 5.1
Sa 27 Low 2:14 AM 0.1 _ 6:18 AM Rise 4:29 AM 6
Sa 27 High 8:25 AM _ 4.7 _ 7:37 PM Set 6:28 PM
Sa 27 Low 2:18 PM _ 0.1
Sa 27 High 8:33 PM _ 5.3
Su 28 Low 3:00 AM _ -0.2 _ 6:19 AM Rise 5:42 AM 2
Su 28 High 9:10 AM _ 5.0 _ 7:35 PM Set 7:01 PM
Su 28 Low 3:10 PM _ -0.1
Su 28 High 9:19 PM _ 5.5
http://www.saltwatertides.com/cgi-local/newyork.cgi
Sunday morning high tide might be problematic for NYC
Check out this video I found of Hurricane Irene in the Bahamas tearing up some sailboats and tossing them around like they were toys.
Matt Lynch: ” tossing them around like they were toys.”
They’re just swaying gently from side to side!
LOL! that’s the best it could do? Bring it on!
I’m amazed at the gaggle of hopeful media, standing with their cameras trained on the beaches, praying for the worst. After mis-informing the public about how to react to this moderate threat, they’ll wonder why it is that they are ignored when a real NATURAL threat comes along.
The North Carolina Barrier Islands look like they are going to take a hit. Gee that’s never happened before! A lot of areas will see major rainfall (too bad this one hadn’t headed into the Gulf and strengthened to Cat 3 before moving into central Texas). Of course, anyone within reach of a tidal surge should get to higher ground. There are both benefits and costs to living that close to sea level. Always have been, always will be. Too bad we can’t sue God when this happens.
I have to laugh at the Warmistas. Where’s the category 4 Superstorm slamming into New York City and killing thousands? The media and the Warmista pseudo scientists can only stand by with their cameras and hope.
Matt Lynch,
I wasn’t the least bit impressed by that video – assuming you linked the correct one.
Everyone else – does anyone actually believe that Irene ever really made it to Cat 3, for the first major hurricane of the season?? If you look at the NHC numbered discussions, there’s a suspicious lack of sea-level wind measurements and “we’ll stick with an initial [meaning current] intensity of 100Kts while we check out the aircraft measurements”… There was one where the aircraft measured 99kts at some altitude (700mb I think) and they allowed that to pass for 100kts at sea level! I’m not convinced…
Rich.
While Irene is following the track predicted days ago quite nicely, the intensity hasn’t quite ramped up to the feared Cat 4. Now it lookes like Irene will come into NC and up the coast as a Cat 1 hurricane. That seems to be a sympton of this hurricane season, where it took until “I”, as in eye-rene, to get a full hurricane. Eight tropical storms, from Arlene to Harvey, and all of them losers.
So there’s something in the air that’s keeping the intensities down, and I bet it’s not CO2.
Forecasting intensity has always been harder than predicting the track. They’ve called the path of Irene really well so far. Given that path up the bogs and bays from NC to NY, it’s a real good thing the weakening will save the day.
at this type is is PURE HYPE, the storm is weakening and moving into VERY DRY air…..it also is jogging EAST now and could NOT make any landfall in the USA.
those saying it will be a huge storm hitting NYC at 7PM sunday are without a clue….and are going to cause harm later on, when a real storm is coming the people wont believe it after the HYPE on this one.
There are amphibious armored vehicles driving toward Moffett Federal Airfield (near SF, CA) no doubt to be flown back East to deal with rescues.
BTW – Joe B is on the radio today. He is depicting a fairly impactful event. The issue is, millions of people living on what used to be swampy coastal plains and barrier islands all along the track. If the models ring true, the eye will ultimately move NNE along the coast or just inland, between I-95 and the beach. That means lots of people and very built up places being impacted. Although we normally call the Midwest America’s heartland, from the stand point of a center of gravity in terms of sheer concentration the East Coast from DC up to New England is a heartland of sorts. This is going to be a bad deal.
@ Matt Lynch
Some of those waves must have been nearly 3 feet high.
I guess you don’t sail much.
Irene continues to weaken, and the SHIPS Intensity model initialized at 5PM EDT has top winds of 50mph in 48 hours, about the time it will be impacting Long Island. My guess is Irene will be less a threat to New England than a lot of wintertime Nor’ Easters.
Matt Lynch says:
August 26, 2011 at 1:26 pm
“Check out this video I found of Hurricane Irene in the Bahamas tearing up some sailboats and tossing them around like they were toys.”
I’ve seen worse in the mediterranean.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bora_(wind)
Oldie but goodie: click
I understand the President has ordered a state of panic, and the Mayor of New York has instructed citizens to “run for the hills!” Fox News has blown a gasket, and are predicting famine, pestilence and a general breakdown of social cohesion. Lets face it; according to those in power, the world as we know it is doomed.
Aren’t you glad such sane heads are keeping watch over us all?
This might be an interesting buoy to watch:
Current wave height, 24 feet.
Peak gust, 56.3 kts.
Pressure tendency, -0.24 in ( Falling Rapidly )
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013
Its location (41013):
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Southeast.shtml
Lotta hype here in New England. No batteries, no flashlights, no water…. thank god for the beer!
If the storm surge is over 8 feet I may have to evacuate… but I may just possibly be posting some really cool photos….. ughh.. if we have power.
Hmm, I was just wading through the NWS weather forecast hourly graphs, their track has the remnant eye brushing my home Sunday PM. Moderate wind (45-50), lotsa rain. The track likely will be further away, but maybe it’s worth trying to intercept, though I don’t like driving on tree lined streets in windy rain storms.
The water vapor image shows Irene is pulling in a chunk of dry air. That’s like cutting the storm off at its knees. The storm is big enough and weak enough so it won’t impact things a huge amount, but expect gradual weakening. I don’t think the air is really dry, at least it sure wasn’t at home this morning!
=====================
Bill Taylor says:
August 26, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Hardly “very” dry air. NYC at 7PM? What forecast are you referring to? Irene is going to be in Concord NH then (generally regarded as part of the USA). The last couple of forecasts have sped it up a fair amount. Don’t rely on old hurricane forecasts.
====================
gacooke says:
August 26, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Where was the forecast for killing thousands? At the time Cat 4 was a reasonable prediction. Here’s an idea – if you’re so confident you can do better, start your own hurricane forecasting service. Do well, and you’ll, well, do well.
BTW, “The Warmista” was meant to be singular, sort of like “The Team” at UEA.
I gotta admit, last night when the pressure fell to 941 I thought FOR SURE we were looking at a cat 4. I was giving tips in to my friend in New Jersey on hurricane preparation…..now…i look stupid as hell for giving her that info. Im never gonna be a weather forecast or model again. Thanks for crying wolf Weather Channel. I never knew you went to the Fox News School of Hype and Hysteria making.
Just wondering… is there an actual eye to this thing? Seems pretty ill-defined to me. Perhaps the media is overblowing Irene
Looks like it will be a damp squib
Seen much worse seas than that often in Wellington Harbour, New Zealand
Move along folks – nothing to see here
It’s interacting with land plus a hefty dry slot got in there. That said, after grazing NC and hitting open water again, and with access to a much more moist air mass in the Mid Atlantic, it could regenerate enough to remain a problem.
This just in; From Advanced Forecasting Corp.
https://www.gplus.com/Hurricanes/Insight/The-storm-cannot-master-its-own-strength
Me, I also see this baby being knocked down substantially overnight. Some are speculating that high alt shear is “tipping” the eyewall over, and Irene pretty much will fizzle to a cat 1 or tropical storm by morning.
Maybe not a repeat of 1938 then?
Did they have global warming then?
I should have added that all these forecasts might as well be in Chinese as far as my understanding goes. I took out my ability to think rationally back in the 70’s…
I will be very interested to see what Ryan thinks.
So I am wondering whether it is the cold front or the water temperature which at work in weakening the storm.
Doug in Seattle
Me too. I see the sea temps are still quite ideal, and all things being equal this should have been a monster. Until someone comes up with a better explanation as to why Irene is looking to be more of a big, wet kiss, I will go on thinking that we simply have nowhere near enough knowledge of what makes the atmosphere tick.
Saturday morning headlines … “Irene Fizzles” ???
Interesting quote from the NHC discussion issued at 5pm EST:
It’s a strange one, albeit a relief, as to why. The SST maps don’t suggest much cold water upwelling, and Irene’s been moving at enough of a rate to avoid this happening. Certainly no dry air has made it to the core to judge by the water vapour satellite loops, despite there being plenty of it to Irene’s west. SSTs along the path have been plenty warm enough to feed her too. it’s not even as though Irene touched upon the very shallow waters of the central Bahamas, as the core stayed over the deep stuff on the Atlantic fringe between island hops. Maybe that eyewall replacement just didn’t fully complete?
Regarding the false start of TD10, I think I’d have preferred it to have developed further, as it then would’ve been pulled further north and east and petered out over the high seas. If it lies low for a week or so, it’s likely to drift a bit north of west as a tropical wave, so it’s perhaps not impossible it’ll get a second chance of development in a location where it could do some damage.
Good luck to those still on the Outer Banks. Looks like you’re already getting some serious squalls at the mo.
Latest radar loop for Moorhead seems to show an intact eye and very strong circulation, fetching a vast area of the sea surface. Being that it’s a glancing blow, with the storm skittering up the coast, the concept of “front right quadrant” does not apply, the worst incident winds and surge are actually going to be in the front left quadrant / NW portion of the storm. There is surely a massive pile up of water coursing into the sounds through the various passes at this time. And the tide is rising, by my reckoning.
I believe what’s weakened it has been the high to its SSW. There are no feeder bands and that side of the storm. Meanwhile, look at the growing feeder bands on the NNE side. It’s feeding on both the immediate warmth and moisture from the sea surface as well as the ample low level moisture left from the wetter than normal summer conditions from DC north east ward. I think Joe B may be right, it may be stronger off the Mid Atlantic than it has been for the past day or so.
FYI:
http://www.weather.gov/ghls/php/ghls_index.php?sid=mhx&threat=coastal
The mayor’s Bloomberg financial news site regularly features absurd alarmist stories. It’s likely that his evacuation order was motivated by his deeply held greenie-wienie beliefs. What a jackass. I’m glad he over-reacted–it illustrates the alarmists’ Chicken Little mindset.
A long night has begun:
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
909 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY IN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN BEAUFORT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
* UNTIL 945 PM EDT
* AT 902 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENGELHARD…MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40
MPH. ANOTHER POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF SWAN
QUARTER.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
ENGELHARD…MIDDLETOWN…
LAKE LANDING…NEBRASKA…
FAIRFIELD…
PAMLICO BEACH…
FYI: Morehead long range base reflectivity loop – look at the strong cells causing the twisters. In a few hours, this will be happening in Hampton Roads as well. Also, it appears the eyewall has regenerated:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Setting aside all this trivial stuff about trashed buildings and endangered lives for a moment, lets talk about the really important things. Like what effect the remnants of Irene will have on Arctic ice levels.
With the resulting strong and unusually warm winds Irene will bring to the Arctic in a weeks time, I’d expect ice levels there to take a bit of a dip. Note that with ice levels currently closely tracking the record low in 2007, a bit of a dip is all we’d need to set a new record low ice level.
TrueNorthist said: I took out my ability to think rationally back in the 70′s…
Ha! That’s pretty funny. I remember doing some of that in the late 70’s but not enough to do long lasting damage. However, I could be deceiving myself about that.
Ian H says:
August 26, 2011 at 6:48 pm
Setting aside all this trivial stuff about trashed buildings and endangered lives for a moment, lets talk about the really important things. Like what effect the remnants of Irene will have on Arctic ice levels.
With the resulting strong and unusually warm winds Irene will bring to the Arctic in a weeks time, I’d expect ice levels there to take a bit of a dip. Note that with ice levels currently closely tracking the record low in 2007, a bit of a dip is all we’d need to set a new record low ice level.
=================================
However, in the longitudes closest to the Date Line, the ice edge has already begun its advance.
East Coast Americans are looking like wimpy little wusses, first they flip a crap over a small earthquake, now they flip out over what in effect will be a category 1 hurricane (IF THAT) towards New England. When did we become such a weak people?
Some more tornadoes on the ground NE of Wilmington (NC).
Christopher says:
August 26, 2011 at 7:36 pm
East Coast Americans are looking like wimpy little wusses, first they flip a crap over a small earthquake, now they flip out over what in effect will be a category 1 hurricane (IF THAT) towards New England. When did we become such a weak people?
============================================
Have you ever seen the inundation map for a Category 2 or even Category 1 storm, striking Long Island from the SSE? It’s not a trivial thing for this to happen in such a densely populated region. Granted this is not as bad as a Cat 3 or above storm making a direct hit on NYC but this could turn out plenty bad. It’s already plenty bad for NC, happening real time, now.
More tornadoes on the ground – near Greenville.
So far no damage reported due to tornadoes. Looking at detailed radar for NC looks like most of them have touched down in the woods and farmland, not in populated areas. That having been said, the outer bands have arrived at Hampton Roads. There are returns showing off of Chincoteague.
A couple of robust cells have popped up nearly atop Cape Hatteras. They are moving rapidly NW. Anyone on a line NW from the Cape toward the VA border should be preparing to take cover.
It’s fizzling out, per NWS at 11:00 pm EDT, see below: (note, Fizzle is an American slang term for diminishing in intensity or force).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Where the table shows time, date, position in Lat and Long, max wind speed in knots and mph.
INIT 27/0300Z 32.6N 76.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 43.8N 71.3W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
More of a fizzler, not a behemoth. This is all good, from the perspective of property damage and population deaths and injury.
It was a warm sunny day in NE NC and SE VA, until the cloud shield moved in. As the bands come ashore, lines of thunderstorms are lighting up the radar. One such line has suddenly popped up with a WSW-ENE orientation, heading into Hampton Roads.
@SteveSadlov
I think your knee jerk reaction responses is completely valid.
Many of us have developed a very thick skin to almost any type of headline that
refers to a weather event that sounds even remotely like the ‘it’s worse than we thought’ mantra.
Having said that, I would just like to say to those of you out on the east coast that aren’t concerned, enjoy the cool breeze and showers.
Next up, Delmarva.
(Note – I am definitely not on the East Coast)
OK, last one then my weekend begins. Here’s my prog for landfall location and subsequent track. The eye will come “ashore” half way beween Morehead and Cape Hatteras. I put quotes because it will not really come fully ashore onto the main landmass for very long. By my reckoning the eye will continue NNE mostly over the Sound, just clipping the main landmass a bit SE of Hampton Roads. It will pass literally just offshore of VA Beach, remaining either off shore or just clipping the respective points and promontories along the Delmarva coast and Jersey Shore. There will be a second landfall just East of JFK Int’l on Sunday, mid day, at a Cat 1 strength. Good luck y’all, have a good weekend.
Another huge circus of media jowl-flapping about nothing.
Does this forecast imply that it will make landfall as a Cat. 2 storm?
Hope my Navy Family Cousins in Virgina Beach and Norfolk have split to Kentucky-where the rest of the family is….
Thoughts and prayers to all out there.
Never been through a hurricane Just some Nasty Sou’ Westers on the Southern Oregon Coast..
One on Blue Water crewing on a Sailboat.-Not fun….
My prediction is that Irene will make landfall in N Ireland/Central Scotland next Thursday at twenty five to three. After all, Irene is an Irish name, who could forget the haunting song ‘I’ll take you home again Irene’ or ‘When Irene’s Eyes are Smiling.’?
Also I think you’ll find that this is god’s punishment of the Irish and Scottish for founding the U.S. 23 out of the 27 signatories of the ‘Declaration of Independence’ were of Scots Ulster descent.
Roger Sowell says:
August 26, 2011 at 8:28 pm
It’s fizzling out, per NWS at 11:00 pm EDT, see below: (note, Fizzle is an American slang term for diminishing in intensity or force)..
===============
Sustained winds of 60-80 mph, you may call “fizzling”, if I was experiencing it I would call it a hurricane.
Here in the midwest, a 60 mph wind makes the high-tension towers in my backyard , begin with a sort of low whistle which becomes a high pitched keening, very unnerving.
It only lasts 10-20 seconds, so far.
Irene may “fizzle” for an hour in one direction, and then change 180 degrees.
It must get tiring.
Didn’t one of these things run out to sea, then turn back in when nobody was looking?
Anyway, Joe Bastardi predicted a lot of Eastern Seaboard ‘canes this season, way back in winter.
@u.k.(us), I defined fizzling above. Yes, Irene is growing weaker by the day. As I recall, it was up to 150 mph winds a day or so ago. Now down to 100, and forecast by the NWS (not by me!!) to be a mere 70 mph at landfall on Sunday. That’s not even hurricane strength. So, yes, it is fizzling. Not a major hurricane, not worth all the media hype. The only noteworthy impact might be coastal flooding, if there is a significant storm surge that coincides with high tide. I’ve been trying to find information on the storm surge of Irene, but not successful yet.
I lived through Hurricane Carla in 1961 when it came ashore near Houston, Texas. That was a major storm. This one is not. Carla peaked at a Category 5 and had weakened to a Category 4 at landfall. By the hurricane severity index (which accounts for both intensity and size), Carla was the most severe hurricane to hit the US, barely edging out Hugo and Betsy. Camille was more intense but far smaller. Irene will not even make the top 10 list, based on intensity being low.
Fizzling out is a good thing. If a Carla-type hurricane hit the East Coast and waltzed all the way up to Maine, the damage and loss of life would be immense. Of course, the offshore water is now far too cold for such an event. Probably due to all that global warming over the past 40 years from man’s evil emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels. One can only wonder where all the heat is hiding. (sarc off for those previous two sentences, for those who, as Anthony put it, are as dense as a neutron star).
From the Wikipedia (not a bad source for something like this:)
“Most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricanes in the United States
based on size and intensity for total points on the Hurricane Severity Index
Rank Hurricane Year Intensity Size Total
1 Carla 1961 17 25 42
2 Hugo 1989 16 24 40
3 Betsy 1965 15 25 40
4 Camille 1969 22 14 36
5 Katrina 2005 13 23 36
6 Opal 1995 11 25 36
7 Miami 1926 15 19 34
8 Audrey 1957 17 16 33
9 Fran 1996 11 22 33
10 Wilma 2005 12 21 33 “
Correction, I wrote 150 mph above, that should be 115 mph. Big difference in the Categorization of Irene. So, 115 earlier, now down to 100, and predicted to continue falling in intensity.
Citizens,
Two nice pics http://bit.ly/rf0ed6 http://bit.ly/phHLhQ
Since we at WeatherAction long-range predicted this and other storms this season we have written to US Authorities offering advice on Irene and ALL US Storms See LETTER to NOAA-NHC / Dept Homelaad Security / Micaell Bloomberg NY Mayor http://twitpic.com/6brruh & for ongoingh comments go to http://bit.ly/qv2YJk
Thanks Piers Corbyn
Warm seas, but too close to land. Will fizzle. No seaward impact. it is that damn fast veer landward that causes havoc. Expect rain. And expect those bent on mischief to use this for cover.
BTW. we have not come close to duplicating storms in the 1700s along the Eastern Seaboard.
It is important to keep perspective in a number of ways. Yes, as a hurricane goes, Irene is rather tame in wind speeds, but makes up for this in size to an extent. the sheer size is going to cause the storm to slacken off less then if it was say smaller. This means higher winds, more rain, and worse flooding all along the East Coast. The pressure is also an indicater here.
But remember the main thing, the storm is fizzling because its starting to reach the area where the seas are not warm anymore and large parts of it are over land which both tend to stop the convective nature of the storm…
But even a fizzling will not stop the damage. Remember, that Florida would shrug off such a hurricane. The East Coast North of VA, etc not as much. Building codes are not as high and the flood areas are not as maintained, so flooding will be worse, and also the winds will do more damage.
This is not a small hurricane. The pressure shows the true strength and although wind speeds are less (I am glad for this small favor), the amount of energy will sustain itself long enough to rip apart large parts of the coast tomorrow. Remember, its all about perspective. Hurricanes do not effect the NE seaboard very often. Its like a small Earthquake for an area that is not used to it. To them it is huge, but from someone from California, they are like “what is the fuss?”
Perspective is everything. As much as I agree we all should at all times be sceptical of the media, and keep a close watch on what they say, they might be right for warning people in the track of this storm. Only tomorrow will tell, but I am hoping the media is wrong personally and that the area will swat this storm away like a mosquito. I sure hope so.
Christopher says:
August 26, 2011 at 7:36 pm
East Coast Americans are looking like wimpy little wusses, first they flip a crap over a small earthquake, now they flip out over what in effect will be a category 1 hurricane (IF THAT) towards New England. When did we become such a weak people?
===================================
Hey dude please don’t be an embarrassment to my namesake. Seriously.
Is that all you can say?
That 5.9 might not be big to you but on our 300 million year old soft-sediment piedmont it is rare…and strong enough to cause significant damage to the 6th largest cathedral in the world.
And when faced with an Ike-style cyclone on a rare track headed toward the second largest city in the world….is that all you can say??
What you don’t realize that the most important and strategic parts of the USA is the Eastern Seaboard, for a variety of reasons….but most of them have to do with it containing the largest megalopolis in the country and the center of military and leadership of the Free World and your nation’s capital.
What you don’t realize is that the Eastern Seaboard contains only 11.7 percent of the nations area….but contains 37% of the nation’s population….most living within 100 miles of the coast….which are low lying, by the way.
Oh…and let me say….we get devastating earthquakes. They are are rare….but they happen. Charleston, 1886.
And tropical cyclones, noreasters and coastal surges, tornadoes, yeah we even get wildfires, droughts, severe thunderstorms, blizzards, ice storms, you name it.
The only thing that doesn’t occur are volcanoes. But not to worry, we are downwind from you so that would affect us too.
You may or may not have ever been to NYC but you have to be there to see how densely populated it is. Manhattan is, by FAR, the most densely populated island on the planet.
Perhaps you forgot an event about 10 years ago this September, and forgot how difficult it is to evacuate people from there.
Do me a favor and go back and study the dynamics of storm surges in narrowing harbors.
And if you can’t recant your “weak wuss” comment after all this new info which should enlighten you, then do me a favor and ___ ____.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
It really is a mistake for the NHC to call Irene a Category 1, when she has the central pressure of a Category 3.
Does the NHC forget the far superior Integrated Kinetic Energy technique which takes into account the total energy output of the storm in terajoules?
Irene may not be an Ike….but she is not just some “Category 1” either.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
“Matt Lynch says:
August 26, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Check out this video I found of Hurricane Irene in the Bahamas tearing up some sailboats and tossing them around like they were toys.”
Looks like a pleasant afternoon in Wales that.
I am concerned about you guys on the wrong side of the Atlantic, but vids like that play down the effect of hurricanes IMO. Wales gets 100mph winds most years and carries on regardless.
The Category is determined by wind-speed, not pressure. Since there is little correlation between storm size and maximum wind speed, an augmented scale that uses IKE would be great. However, we do not have half-way decent historical records of storm size.
Irene is about the typical size for an east coast hurricane originated in the Bahamas. The poleward outflow channel is usually very strong just prior to recurvature which allows for the wind field to expand greatly.
@savethesharks
Shes may not just be a Cat 1 either, it may get a lot weaker. Either way we’ll know all the facts in a few days time.
This is just a practice run for the hurricane coming September 10.
The northeast sector of Irene will remain over warm water and retain more strength than some imagine, until it comes ashore on the south coast of New England.
Don’t forget the trees have their summer load of leaves on. A tree that can withstand winter gales and gusts to 60 mph from the northwest does that without leaves. Each leaf is like a sail, catching the wind. Furthermore, winter gales cause many trees to grow in a manner that leans to the south, which is the wrong way to be leaning in a tropical storm’s south and southeast winds.
Be glad this storm is losing strength and coming north much more slowly than the 1938 hurricane. The 1938 hurricane stepped on the gas and came north at 60 mph. It didn’t have time to lose strength, but Irene may “merely” be a tropical storm, when it bicects New England. It may “merely” have winds of 60 mph. But don’t kid yourself. That can still take down plenty of trees, and knock out the power long enough to melt your icecream.
Irene will clear out the more rotton trees, so we are better prepared for September 10.
Local TV station had to put “gusts” on the map to make it look worse than it is. The prophecies of a major storm have not panned out. This is about as bad as a real good Nor’easter. To be quite honest, if you live on the coast and your house cannot survive a Cat2, it is incorrectly made. Looks like NC has dodged a bullet. This will be gone and outta here in about 3-4 hours….
Irene will be the first storm to make US landfall as a hurricane since Ike in 2008.
Christopher says:
August 26, 2011 at 7:36 pm
East Coast Americans are looking like wimpy little wusses, first they flip a crap over a small earthquake, now they flip out over what in effect will be a category 1 hurricane (IF THAT) towards New England. When did we become such a weak people?
Erm, you seem a bit confused there, Chris. There is media hype, which has a tendency to exaggerate things to an extreme on one hand, and on the other are people trying to determine how to respond to it in the most sensible way. It’s easy to say, after the fact with regard to Irene, that people “flipped out” over a cat 1 hurricane, when there was nothing ever said on the news about an expected weakening of the hurricane from a cat 3. There were reports even that it could strengthen to cat 4 for a time. So, blame the forecasters, if you must, and certainly the media, but your attitude towards people responding to that in the most sensible way they know how is not only unwarranted, but asinine as well.
National Hurricane Center reports Irene’s eye made landfall in NC at 7:30 ET as a Cat. 1 with winds of 85 mph. It forecasts Irene to remain a Cat. 1 hurricane as it works up through New England.
I get the feeling that forecasters are going to have some ‘splainin’ to do after this. Crying wolf isn’t nice, and can backfire the next time, when there really is one.
Just spoke to my sister in Guilford CT. Her main concern is falling trees. They have had so much rain the last couple of weeks that some of the trees are already listing due to the saturated ground. If they get another 5-10 inches of rain even 50 mph winds will take down the trees. One newscaster made a good point earlier today. Florida soil is made mostly of sand which drains quickly whereas the northeast has heavier loam and clay soil which retains water. Flooding and uprooted trees knocking down power lines will be the main threat in New England.
“Hurricane Irene: Obama warns of ‘historic’ storm”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14687944
“President Barack Obama has warned that Hurricane Irene, currently looming off the east coast of the US, could be a “historic” storm.
Seven states from North Carolina to Connecticut have declared emergencies ahead of Irene’s arrival.
Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in parts of four states, and in low-lying areas of New York City.
The category two storm has weakened a little and is expected to make landfall with winds of up to 100mph (155km/h).
David Willis reports.”
Well, dang it, I guess the cannibalism thing was a bit premature. Umm, so, to the surviving neighbours: I am so very sorry.
The joy of cable tv. Gotta have hype. Do yourselves all a favor – take TWC off your cable/satelite menus. They live to hype and have been a major AGW advocate. They are political channel masquerading as a weather one. This has spilled over to your local news weathercasts. Damage, destruction and death are what drive ratings. Ignore it.
Most people here no where to check, the websites that work, etc. This includes the NWS who has lots of nice summary information. Tell your friends to avoid the TV stuff – it is almost worthless. That is who hyped this thing.
This of course forces local govts to react to a degree more than they might like – for instance the evacs in NY. Let’s keep in mind that the emergency personnel are just trying to the job the best they can, dealing with a storm that still has variation and could cause more or less damage than we currently think. The people they report to have to face elections. Ask a former Chicago mayor about how a failure to deal with a large snow cost him an election.
I should check my spelling more carefully – “know” not “no”.
simple FACT, the media has HYPED this storm for DAYS….right NOW it was supposed to be a powerful cat 3 gaining power…reality is a weakening cat 1….and the media is STILL trying to HYPE it.
Wow, 33mph winds at Buxton, NC landfal. I can barely play golf in that.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/08/27/noaas-phony-hurricane-coming-on-shore-with-33-mph-winds/
Tim Bromige says:
August 22, 2011 at 4:24 pm
At least Canadian dollars are still worth something.
savethesharks: “Manhattan is, by FAR, the most densely populated island on the planet.”
By how far, specifically? How did you arrive at this conclusion?
Apparently this wiki needs updating: …islands by population density…
As a “landlubber”, wish these forecasts would use “mph” instead of “knots” for wind speed (I bet most people don’t know how these compare). Also wish they would use “inches” instead of “millibars” for pressure (from my experience, most home barometers use “inches”).
We don’t get too many hurricanes here in Colorado, although about 15 years ago, we had the remnant of a Pacific tropical system come through this way, and it rained for two days straight.
Try to find a legitimate weather station with sustained wind speed reports anywhere near the forecast values.
Here is the strongest so far (58 knots):
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=clkn7
Obama needed this to be a big one…
We’ll get the actual windspeed data very soon as Irene crosses eastern NC. There should be many sites that can accurately measure windspeed and duration there as well as other land sites on up the coast. NHC’s guestimate process of airplane fly-through can then be compared with actual measurements. NHC’s 11 am, Sat. Aug. 27 forecast update should have included actual windspeed data, but did not. Instead it again used the generic fly-through process to make a Cat. 1 conclusion. If NHC didn’t have access to actual measurements for the 11 am report, it should have.The storm center had been present for several hours by then. In the future, more attention should be paid to NHC’s entire approach to hurricane forecasting following facts from storm impacts after this event. It may be that NHC needs more tools and an entirely new approach to it’s 6 hour forecast intervals, and brief, cryptic, one page conclusory ‘discussion’ statements which should contain much more technical analysis. NHC’s ‘discussion’ process appears woefully outdated. It should be comprehensive and compiled by many experts, not the apparently one signatory analyst historically relied upon by NHC staff.
Slightly off topic but apropos the current Hurricane hyping, or not. Everyone pooh-pooed the “only” 5.8 earthquaker with epicenter in Mineral, VA. I live 31 miles from there and although it hasn’t received much attention in the national media it did a great deal of damage around here. The Louisa County high school and an elementary school both sustained very serious damage and the HS will not be usable for the entire school year. The elementary school may have to be condemned. The damage to the HS is more than 7m dollars which these rural areas can ill afford.
Caleb says:
August 27, 2011 at 3:17 am
“This is just a practice run for the hurricane coming September 10.”
Do you work for the media?
Where are the hurricane winds?
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=34.24169922&lon=-77.94360352&zoom=8&pin=Wilmington%2c%20NC
Well. Finally, Obama has some shovel-ready jobs. All up and down the East Coast.
In the release I cited (a few posts above) I read the NHC saying that they estimated the landfall speed based on Doppler radar. Maybe the offshore estimates were by plane.
PS: Here’s what the NHC said, in Bulletin 28A:
______________________________________
gacooke said:
August 26, 2011 at 2:25 pm
I have to laugh at the Warmistas. Where’s the category 4 Superstorm slamming into New York City and killing thousands? The media and the Warmista pseudo scientists can only stand by with their cameras and hope.
______________________________________
Ric Werme responds:
August 26, 2011 at 4:27 pm
Where was the forecast for killing thousands? At the time Cat 4 was a reasonable prediction. Here’s an idea – if you’re so confident you can do better, start your own hurricane forecasting service. Do well, and you’ll, well, do well.
BTW, “The Warmista” was meant to be singular, sort of like “The Team” at UEA.
______________________________________
First, Ric, I would not recommend driving into this, or any other, storm for a lookie-loo.
Second, I am not a meteorologist. At the time I made my post, I was thinking the storm would have turned further to the east and sped up. No, I don’t think I should be predicting weather. But it was obvious when I posted that NYC was over-reacting to something that is looking to be a day late and a dollar short.
But let’s talk about climate vs. weather. The warmistas that I was referring to are the climate Chicken Littles who have been praying for something like this to come along and take out NYC so they can blame the fossil fuel industry. I’m sure you’ll find the category 4 superstorm and the thousands of casualties in one of Algore’s screeds.
Meanwhile, TWC has to make their reporter go stand in the surf at Nag’s Head, the storm is weakening to a tropical depression and even in the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, where the eye now sits, there appears to be minimal storm surge. This is a good thing! Yes, there will be destruction and possible lives lost. That is a bad thing. Some of this will be because people didn’t heed short term warnings to evacuate and long term warnings not to build so close to sea level. Some of it will be the result of wind or rain that might have been impossible to dodge. None of it is the result of global warming (err… climate change).
Whipping up a frenzy of fear may be necessary to get our undereducated, under informed populace to move out of the way. But it will make them less likely to take these things seriously in the future.
PPS: Bulletin 29 (latest) says:
Here’s your wind speeds. This is a tropical storm at best. What a crook. NOAA strikes again.
http://classic.wunderground.com/US/NC/
Another overhyped event that is bringing every weather whacko out of the woodwork, stoked by the media and a politician or two.
There could be a very sizable storm surge and ‘grand’ high tide into the Bay of Fundy, depending on whether the storm center tracks east of the Bay, Irene hasn’t lost all rotation, and how the surge coincides with the normal tide rise…
Roger: Here’s NHC’s Dicussion No. 29, issued 11 am Aug. 27. “National Weather Service doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Irene made landfall around 1130 utc just west of Cape Lookout NC. The estimated intensity of landfall was 75 kt. This was bases on a peak flight-level of 98 kt ans a SFMR surface wind of 69 kt. A dropsonde released by a NOAA aircraft measured a minimum pressure of 951 mb around the time of landfall. The initial intensity will remain 75 kt.” This ‘discussion’ has remained unchanged. If NHC used any actual ground level windspeed measurements, it should have said so in its ‘discussion’ report and described the source. Otherwise, we’re left with NHC’s own words which seem clear. IE, it relied on aircraft measurement process to arrive at surface windspeed estimate at landfall.
NHC says 85 mph — bilgewater! What IS going on here? Is Hansen running NHC now?
Do to http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=34.24169922&lon=-77.94360352&zoom=8&pin=Wilmington%2c%20NC and scroll northward, or Observations from individual weather stations on NOAA, etc. Regardless, lots of trees will probably come down, etc. This will be an interesting study, post facto.
Since these hurricanes are such a terrible threat, why are they given innocuous names like Carla and Irene and Hugo? I suggest they be named after famous generals or admirals leading marauding armies or fleets. So started with A you’d have Attila and Alaric and Alexander, and for B you’d have… Well, the possibilities are endless. And you could even have general Robert E Lee sweeping up through Virginia, not long after general Vo Nguyen Giap.
Lots of people using hindsight to downplay things. Where were you all two days ago?
For those that seem to not understand, the top winds in a hurricane are in the eye wall. Tops winds do not extend very far away from that. So when they say what the top winds are that is only in the eye wall. Now. hurricane force winds can extend out a distance and that is the crucial number. Most of the area that wind in a hurricane never see more than 60 mph. Finally, finally, I have seen a “standing in the storm weather person” actually say what the wind speed is that is blowing them around. Those winds are NOT hurricane force winds.
Here is a list of Atlantic Hurricanes in the 1700’s Must have been Due to the invention of the
Franklin Stove and George Washington’s Hummer…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in_the_18th_century
peruse and note the all time records-like the Potomac tides….
Worse than we thought..
John Stover says:
August 27, 2011 at 9:05 am
Yeah, $6.5 million for paperwork, inspections, and bureaucratic overhead, $100K in actual repairs, by the looks of it.
Old people are walking around inside the joint without even a hard hat on. One fat ancient woman walking through the mayhem in open toed shoes. You can’t seriously expect anyone to believe that the damage was more than superficial, can you?
http://www.fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2011/082011/08272011/648059/index_html/slide_show2?qstart=1
That figure is SO inflated. It isn’t the taxpayers footing the bill either. Don’t be goofy. City buildings are insured just like any other structure. They’ll want it condemned if possible to build a brand new school on the insurance company’s nickel.
@John Stover
Isn’t this just precious?
http://www.virtexco.com/Docs/Richmond/Lousia%20High%20School/IFB.pdf
A July 25th, 2011 request for bids to renovate Lousia County High School. Approximately $7 million in renovations and improvements. Coincidence that county estimates the quake caused $7 million in damages or perhaps someone hoping to capitalize on an earthquake so they can get an insurance company to cover the cost of rennovation. You be the judge.
Seems to me they’re asleep at the NHC.
The 2PM EST update #29A says
NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH. Yet after crossing onto land “west of Cape Lookout” more than 7 hours ago it appears to be centered over East Lake. That’s only 70 miles and more like NE of landfall. Maybe I could do a better job after all!
@ Gacooke, don’t think that some of the models allow for the west slant that occurs from land friction/rotation interaction. This appears to be a common cause of missing the actual track.
John Stover says:
August 27, 2011 at 9:05 am
Sorry John, I feel for your damage, but here in Los Angeles, I don’t get out of bed until a 6.0 strikes.
Roger Knights says:
August 27, 2011 at 9:50 am
That’s all very well, because hurricanes are measured based on maximum gusts, right?
Why is Chris Lawrence, reporting for CNN, standing in the water at the end of a pier to report on the storm from Chesapeake Bay?
“Economic Geologist says:
August 27, 2011 at 1:32 pm
Why is Chris Lawrence, reporting for CNN, standing in the water at the end of a pier to report on the storm from Chesapeake Bay?”
Because he is a media whore. Next!
Crap from Scientific American republished by AccuWeather:
“For all of their harbor-side advantages, low-lying coastal cities, such as New York, are particularly vulnerable when it comes to major storms, which are predicted to become more powerful with climate change. New York state has initiated long-term plans to build sea walls and discourage waterside development as a means to decrease future high-water threats, but these preparations are still years and decades away.”
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/home-garden/earth-you/54316/map-of-flood-risks-and-hurrica.asp
At least the fire in Dismal Swamp is out… pretty sure.
From the NHC 5 PM Discussion: “BECAUSE THE LARGE WIND FIELD WILL TAKE TIME
TO SPIN DOWN…HOWEVER…IRENE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW
YORK AREA AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.” Spin down? Are hurricanes objects, like tops, with momentum? Or are they constantly propagating collections of (for want of a better word) phenomena that interact to create the thing we call “hurricane.” What are these people talking about?
When Irene began to weaken yesterday as the media, the hurricane center, FEMA and state and local governments all along the east coast were hyping the storm as major hurricane event, I tweeted, “I forecast Kartrina. Irene is no Katrina.” Then I tweeted, “When the Director of FEMA told people to ignore the category of the storm and prepare for the worst, that was stupid. Thousands of scientists have worked to develop the forecasting skill and system to classify hurricanes and give meaningful guidance based on that system, and a high government official dismisses it.”
And then I tweeted ” After scrapping the coast line from Virginia to Long Island, Irene will be a minimum hurricane or even a tropical storm by the time in reaches New York City.” Then I turned off CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, FOX, MSNBC and told our viewers in San Diego how I felt. The news Producers were upset; I was ruining their crisis coverage. The News Director cheered and said right on, Coleman. I am now watching movies and playing poker and ignoring the silliness as an average hurricane makes landfall in North Carolina and Virgina. I feel so much better.
John Coleman says:
August 27, 2011 at 4:54 pm
Amen to that good sir.
It is a big rainmaker. Though still an awesome event if you happen to be under it … those storms almost feel alive with their power … even if only at tropical storm level
Still, it’s been so hyped that credibility is strained. What happens when a REAL storm hits?
The silly coverage of this weather is just another episode of the Dumbing Down of America. Filling people’s brains with useless information makes the people stupider. It’s as simple as that.
Andrew
I just saw a report from some jerk standing in the surf, doing his best to look as though he was braving the teeth of the storm. Near the end of the shot a elderly woman strolled easily by, looking at him as though he were some kind of fool. Pretty much sums up this whole debacle. I worked briefly as a cameraman for a local TV station way back in the dark ages, and even then the on air personalities were prone to hyperbole and drama, but nothing like what we are witnessing with Irene. Here on the SW coast of BC we regularly get very nasty storms that bring down hundreds if not thousands of trees. We had a couple where the tree-fall count was in the millions. We routinely get 50-100 mm’s or more of rain — combined with gale force and greater winds over very short periods of time. Buildings get damaged and/or destroyed and houses get flooded, but never, repeat, never have we had 24 hour coverage with hundreds of “reporters” tripping over each other and wading out into the water, trying to scare the pants off of everyone. Even the President of the United States is doing his level best to frighten folks.
What on earth are you guys putting in your water?
Sitting here in South Jersey. You should understand the area has had 13 inches of rain in the last 3 weeks, so the gound starts very saturated. In addition we haven’t had a serious wind storm test the trees in the area in a long time. Even if it is a Cat 1, with overly saturated ground, I’m not real confident about the 50+ foot trees on my neighbor’s property.
So far in the last 2 hours we’ve had 4 different National Weather warnings of confirmed area tornadoes, the nearest about 3 miles away in Glassboro. We are supposed to experience the heaviest winds and rains between 3am and 7am, unfortunately the local retention ponds and streams are already over their banks as it has been raining since 9am.
The kids are treating this as a big adventure, forgot this is their first and closest taste of a hurricane in their lifetime.
Thought you might get a kick out of this in the New York Times.
“Seeing Irene as a Harbinger of Climate Change” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/us/28climate.html
After the past few hurricane seasons as well as this one and Irene, it must be hard to write that stuff with any knowledge or integrity.
Leon Brozyna says:
August 27, 2011 at 5:41 pm
“Still, it’s been so hyped that credibility is strained. What happens when a REAL storm hits?”
Excellent point! While we don’t want to downplay the real dangers associated with heavy rainfall and tropical storm force winds, if people wake up tomorrow and find that it wasn’t a catastrophic storm, then what happens when a real Cat3 or Cat4 comes along? Some will say – “Eh, they said Irene was bad but it was a big dud, so I’m going to ignore the MSM and the forecasters this time…probably wrong again…”. What a disaster that would be.
May not be as bad as it could be, but still a lot of rain up here in the North East!!
RE: TrueNorthist says:
August 27, 2011 at 6:49 pm
“I just saw a report from some jerk standing in the surf, doing his best to look as though he was braving the teeth of the storm. Near the end of the shot a elderly woman strolled easily by, looking at him as though he were some kind of fool…”
Don’t you just hate it when that happens?
They cut out the part where the reporter shakes his fist at the elderly ham, and shrieks, “You f—ing old b—-! That’s the ninth take you’ve ruined! If you pull that stunt one more time I’ll kick your a– from here to Friday!” Then he looks to the camera and wails, “I just want to go home!”
Sounds like you get some awesome storms in your neck of the woods. However the west coast rises fairly steeply from the sea, whereas here in the east, except up in Maine, the land by the sea is flat. A ten foot storm surge is nothing to you. It is just water rising down at the bottom of a cliff. Here it gives these silly reporters a reason to panic, because ten feet of water covers the roofs of single story cottages, and the floods can extend a mile or more inland. There is a very real danger, behind the foolish antics of our media.
Irene is making a mess of certain rules. The pressure is at 951 mb. Check out what the winds should be, using the Staffir Simpson Scale. At that pressure the winds should be 120 mph. The fact they are only 80 mph likely is causing melt-downs, within very expencive computers. In fact my understanding is that Hansen’s computer is saying, “Warning! Warning! Danger! Danger!” in the voice of the robot in the old TV series, “Lost In Space.”
With the pressure at 951 mb, I would say there is still some danger of winds picking up. This baby ain’t over ’til it’s over.
Just had a step change in winds and rain about 30 minutes ago. I was wondering if Irene would visit or not….. Ric Werme, If the leading edge is here now, you’re due in about four-six hours! Last I looked, the eye was supposed to pass over my house about 2 p.m. … and that’s about the time for high tide as well. If the water reaches the road I’ll be impressed.
Several years ago I had a small disaster in the house that required ripping up some flooring. The joists were all rotted… and sitting on cinder blocks sitting on sand. I scraped away some of that sand, expecting to find more sand, and found a concrete pad underneath! The sand the cinder blocks and the joists were resting on was deposited during the hurricane of 1938. Nothing has come close since.
Been watching the NOAA weather stations as the eye approaches (a sea based one in particular. ) Sustained winds are pretty much under 50 mph and trending slightly downwards. Seas are around 20 ft which is big, but far less than what was reported during the 1992 perfect storm.
Watching tide gauges as well. In VA, the larges surge was a little over 4 ft and its not rising. Tide gauges in NJ have started to rise, but the surge is under 2 ft so far.
I believe the majority of damage will be rain induced floods pounding towns in NJ like Wayne and Bound Brook. This storm is looking like a hurricane Floyd type storm.
What I am surprised at is the difficulty of finding actual storm information other than here at WUWT. What I find is information about Obama at the Obama crisis center.
There’s a storm in the internet as to how strong the winds currently are. Are the gusts only hurricane strength? Or are they sustained? Is it a tropical storm now? Or a hurricane?
It looks like there are not hurricane winds at the moment.
trbixler says: “What I find is information about Obama at the Obama crisis center.”
Obama is the bigger threat to the US.
John Coleman,
Thank you. I appreciate your comment. 🙂
Can someone explain why the Maximum predicted wind velocity at Barnegat Light, which is right on the shore of a NJ barrer island, is 50 MPH according to weather underground.
What am I missing?
Thanks
Another question.
Looking at the NWS track Anthony provided, it is difficult to see the track between Va, NJ, and NYC. It is busy with all kinds of overlayed information and is so small a map scale that one cannot get a very precise picture of the present location relative to land.
I’m not complaining about WUWT, I am gratefull for Anthony’s efforts. I just wonder if this is the best NOAA can provide. Is this intentional? Am I missing something?
BTW, I sat through a Hurricane in Tampico Mexico in the late 60’s and the only info we could get was via ham radio that we plotted, so we have come a long way.
Thanks
Anthony
The boy who cried wolf…blah, blah, blah. I prefer to think of it in terms of a Russian Roulette analogy. Someone could urge you not to play as it’s very dangerous. You can ignore them and probably be safe…most of the time. If the officials responsible for public safety instruct you to evacuate and you decide to stay and ride out whatever happens, you’ll probably be OK…most of the time…but not EVERY time.
Oh great … now they tell us …
Which means that the worst of the storm has kept out to sea … and that the people on the eastern end of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island will get what no one else has yet experienced from this storm. Hope those people get the word, after hearing how the storm’s been hyped so far, they may let their guard down.
So, …
When a government “official body” panics from group think and “what if” and “precautionary principles” …..
And requires – at the point of their guns – that 4 million people to leave their homes.
but they can’t – because the roads are blocked, the bridges plugged, the interstates full, the back roads isolated and not cut-through……….Who is responsible when these innocents are killed because they are trapped,trying to evacuate? Who is wiser? The ones who listened to “authority” ? Or the ones who stayed in shelter?
Are there really “government” agencies you blindly trust with your family’s life today?
Leon,
Thanks, that explains the wind conditions and predictions I found on weatherunderground.
I have a boat in the water on the mainland side of the Barnegat bay and have been trying to find out when it is going to sink!! My hopes are raised by your post. This was never revealed by several hours of watching TV including the weather channel.
RACookPE1978:
Folks with lots of experience are laughing at NY mayor Bloomberg: click
RACookPE1978 says:
August 27, 2011 at 10:04 pm
Your comment is less about the weather and more about some fuzzy political ideology.
[*****], everyone has one, but not everyone needs to use it as an excuse to post non-science, on a science oriented blog.
Grow up.
Obama takes charge at hurricane command center
“US President Barack Obama warned the US east coast was in for a “long 72 hours” as he led his government’s response to Hurricane Irene at a disaster command center in Washington.”
Ugh…. Our Dear Leader has ‘taken charge’ at the hurricane command center. Perhaps his teleprompter has commanded the hurricane winds to drop down to 30 mph, from the ‘horrifying’ 65mph gusts that Irene had been generating from all of that anthropogenic warming. Oh, the humanity!
I’ll sleep so much more soundly tonight, knowing Our Dear leader is in the hurricane command center, commanding that pesky hurricane. You can rest easy tonight America……. the community activist Barack Obama and the clown college graduate Joe Biden are ‘on the job’!
Just for clarification on my earlier comment, the following is from the NHC’s 11PM advisory:
Now … will any of the media pick up on this small but critical little bit? Folks on Long Island might like to know … and Connecticut … and Rhode Island.
Caleb says:
August 27, 2011 at 8:14 pm
RE: TrueNorthist says:
August 27, 2011 at 6:49 pm
“I just saw a report from some jerk standing in the surf, doing his best to look as though he was braving the teeth of the storm. Near the end of the shot a elderly woman strolled easily by, looking at him as though he were some kind of fool…”
Don’t you just hate it when that happens?
We had similar in Oz with the reporter in a canoe explaining the flood when someone in gumboots walked past the camera showing the water level was around 3 to 4 inches.
.
Have any wind farms been zapped?
So much interest. I remember one of the hurricanes a few years ago when I was in Boston. The media were full of reports how it spectacularly hit New England, and so on. Meanwhile, in Boston, all that I could observe was an ordinary gentle rain and moderate winds.
It’s often the case that people learn about globally “sensational events” taking place near their homes from the media. If they were just watching from the window, they wouldn’t notice that something “sensational” is going on at all.
970 mb?? In the UK that is a winter storm. Lowest I have seen over the UK was 953 mb, but we did not call it a hurricane or evacuate Kent.
.
What’s with some of these “reporters” saying that tornadoes are expected along the storm track?
Is that even possible?
REPLY: Very, and common with hurricanes. Lots of vorticity gets transferred to the mesocyclones that form in rain bands. – Anthony
I was working on an oil exploration rig in Oman a few years ago when a cyclone was predicted to make landfall near the capital, Muscat. All the local rig crew demanded to be sent home to be with their families and the rig was on downtime – something that wouldn’t happen in most places. A Scottish guy who lived in Muscat, arrived at the rig a few days later and described it as: “a wet day in Aberdeen”.
And now on CNN they are reporting that a Nuclear plant has shut down because a sheet of aluminum bounced off the reactor building. Fukushima II ?
Also a reporter in Atlantic City is pointing at a puddle on the road while saying flooding has started.
The MSM is insane.
Ah, the good ‘ol New York Times could not pass up the opportunity to blame this on AGW:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/us/28climate.html?_r=1&hp
Can someone please help me?
Why are 300,000 people being evacuated for a 75mph storm?
What am I missing?
I don’t understand how a storm of this magnitude can bring a sea-surge large enough to cause any major damage or threaten the life of anyone that isn’t already an idiot?
I’ve been seeing CNN in the last minutes…
How more stupid can it get? Even reporters are starting to laugh at this…
Someone has to grab this for further laugh!
I haven’t seen any real evidence of the hurricane force winds. Hell, the reminants of Hurricane Ike had stronger winds when it made it inland to St. Louis, MO. It took out two large trees in my yard and put a hole in my roof.
Update from Penacook NH:
OBS Penacook NH 280720 R 69F/68F ENE@1G13 29.52″ R:0.65
Pressure fall started at 0000, temperature rise started at 0200, wind picking up since 0600.
Looks like a tropical cyclone is coming this way. 🙂
Current data for Penacook, NH on Aug 28 at 0720:
Temperature 68.8F, today’s high 69.4F at 0000, low 66.1F at 0335
Humidity 97%, therefore:
Dew point 67.9F
Barometer 29.516″, Falling rapidly
Today’s rain 0.65″
Storm total 0.79″
Monthly total 3.24″
Current rain rate 0.13″/hr
Sunrise at 0606, sunset at 1929
Yesterday’s high 83F at 1357, low 59F at 0557
At 0741, storm total is 0.86″
John Goetz says:
August 28, 2011 at 2:53 am
“Ah, the good ‘ol New York Times could not pass up the opportunity to blame this on AGW:”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/us/28climate.html?_r=1&hp
__________________________________________________________
If the editors at the New York Times had a clue, they would have understood that by linking this over- the- top hurricane alarm with the AGW meme, people will have even more reason to think that Chicken Little has been running the show.
My cats [….] bigger winds than this.
Rain is falling here in New Hampshire this morning. No wind. I report more later.
John Goetz says:
August 28, 2011 at 2:53 am
“Ah, the good ‘ol New York Times could not pass up the opportunity to blame this on AGW:”
Then we should be happy that global warming = weak hurricanes!
By the way, New York will be out of the rain bands later today on the dry southern part of the storm. Let the explanations for the botched intensity forecasts begin!
I remember hurricane Gloria back in 1985 that came right over Long Island NY with strong Cat 1 to weak Cat 2 rating and Cat 3 gusts when it hit Long Island. The storm surge was high enough to lift some of the floating docks in Huntington Harbor off there supporting piles. and blew a raft of sail boats on shore. I was on a mooring in the harbor, had put out an anchor and doubled all the lines, and suffered no damage at all. That was quite a bit stronger than Irene. Where was AGW?
Murray
This whole hurricane hype is so utterly stupid and hyped. How can any president refer to the hurricane as `epic’……. relates to credability. And I say this as a Canadian so don’t care whether he is a republican or democrat. Fear fear.
Irene hits the Big Apple … and is immediately downgraded to a Tropical Sorm (65 mph).
The after-action report will be interesting … but it’ll never make the news … they’ll be busy chasing after some other over-hyped events.
Catcracking says:
August 27, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Let us know how you (and the island) make out – I have old family ties to LBI. My grandparent’s summer place in Harvey Cedars withstood several hurricanes before getting destroyed by the March 1962 nor’easter.
Can a nation of narcissistic nebbishes long endure?
What is the definition of “MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS”?
How long time must the wind blow before it can be labeled “sustained”.
I just read an interview with a Swedish meteorologist who compared the wind speed with a strong Swedish storm some years back and she said that 33 m/s is a lot stronger than the average speed of Gudrun. I have however a hunch that she is comparing apples and pears, anyone who can shed light on the definitions?
Nick says:
August 28, 2011 at 3:21 am
Because evacuation plans are made before the conditions at impact are known, duh. I am not a fan of mandatory evacuations, I’d be happy if the were made recommended and that 911 calls from those areas be shunted off to an answering machine to protect the lives of rescuers.
As for the storm surge threat, I mentioned Long Beach Island. I’m not sure what the wind conditions were like there in March 1962, but Wikipedia notes 60 mph (96 km/h) winds and 7.6 m (25 ft) waves struck Ocean City, Maryland. While the storm did stall offshore for a couple days, LBI was cut through in three places. I’ll have more to say about it in March.
From the Sunday Washington Post, no less:
“A cursory look around Virginia Beach suggested that the worst damage might have been suffered by meteorologists, emergency officials and media who overhyped Hurricane Irene’s likely devastation.”
While RW has explained why this is so, keep in mind that surge is a function not only of winds, but also of storm speed, direction, the local speed of waves in the water, and, in shallow water, slope of the ocean bottom. Some puny storms have managed an unexpectedly high surge. One such was in the NE portion of the Gulf of Mexico about ten years ago–can’t recall the name.
according to think progress, it’s worst then we thought
How Global Warming Is Making Hurricane Irene Worse
http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/08/26/305265/how-global-warming-is-making-hurricane-irene-worse/
Meanwhile I have downgraded Irene from a tropical storm to the sort of weather we get in the North West UK for about 6 months of the year /sarc
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/08/gov_chris_christie_hurricane_i.html
Who’s this clown?
Will go down in history as the “windless hurricane”. We had a few gusty bits here in central Mass, but nothing sustained. My family reports the same from NJ, but more flooding there.
This gives forcasters a really bad name. Yesterday I was hearing 40-50MPH sustained winds and catastrophic damage corridor. Yawn.
What happened to the Saturday the 20th post asking for projections of the path of Irene?
I wrote that I expected it to go “up the Hudson River estuary” and flood Hansen’s West Side Highway. Though done sarcastically, this call seems to have been right on the money:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2011/08/irene-causes-nyc-flooding-millions-without-power.html
“Flooding was also causing problems in highways across the city, including the Henry Hudson Parkway and the West Side Highway in Manhattan and the Belt Parkway in Brooklyn.
Do I get any carbon credits?
I just heard of a very good analog storm to Irene, Hurricane Doria of 1971. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Doria_(1971) :
…
h/t: Todd Gross (Boston weather fans will remember him) at CNBC.
Oops – meant to change my intro on the previous post (I think in spamurgatory) from hurricane Doria to tropical storm Doria.
I’ve probably asked this before but I cannot recall the answer. Isn’t it the case that storms, hurricanes being the biggest, actually fill the role of a massive heat distribution system? I mean, they suck up all that energy (heat + moisture) over warm oceans and then drop it far away from the hot spots….thus distributing heat. Does this mean then that weather systems, maybe all of them, are heat distribution systems that work in tandem with all winds? If so, then if the earth is really heating up a small amount then the ecosystem of our planet should respond accordingly and push the heat out into storms and winds. Am I missing something? It seems obvious…..but….
Knut Witberg says:
August 28, 2011 at 6:33 am
> What is the definition of “MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS”?
Easy one, but worth covering. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind
I’m having more trouble finding the definition for gust, I think that’s something like the minimum speed over 5 seconds.
Ric Werme says:
August 28, 2011 at 6:25 am
Ric,
Got a call from my friend in Forked River.
Boat is fine, I don’t know about LBI, but Hurricane made Landfall in Little Egg Harbor, about 20 Mi North of AC with Winds of 79 MPH. These were the max recorded in NJ. My son lives near there and had 2 trees down but no damage to house. I know that the barrier islands (LBI) got quite a pounding from the rough seas and surge the governor called for a mandatory evacuation.
We were fortunate along the NJ coast that the high winds were offshore for the most part on the east side.
Again thanks to Anthony for the great info.
950 mb pressure. Is a normal UK low pressure system.
Being from the hilly part of the uk in the north, Sheffield, the wind speeds are about 30mph and a bit of sideways rain, I’ve played rugby football(soccer) in those conditions on the top of peak district hills in my youth.
It Basically looks like a normal english low pressure system that we get continuously from September though to feb.
There is nothing quite like normal sideways rain and strong winds.
It’s the primary reason why we have cavity built brick houses in the UK, so when the rain is sideways, the water goes through the outer brick layer into the cavity and drops safetly into the space.
There is a reason we don’t do wood houses in the UK. They wouldn’t get though a normal winter !
Prepare for the worst – hope for the best. My thought is everything worked very well. People were well prepared, emergency management was well prepared, and everthing went smoothly. What’s wrong with that?
James, 950mb is a bit on the extreme side for a ‘normal UK low pressure system’! 980mb is a reasonable level for a low producing gales, while a good winter storm is around 960mb. 950mb in an extratropical system is about what the Great Storm of 1987 and the Burns’ Day Storm of 1990 reached. Not exactly everyday stuff.
The Three Little Pigs were onto something about UK housebuilding though…
Why are 300,000 people being evacuated for a 75mph storm?
What am I missing?
Probably that those 300K people depend heavily on a subway and train system that does not shut down on a dime.
Problem is the boy’s cried wolf now, what happens next time?
I think some of the Americans may have gone a bit OTT about Irene. Its now windier in Scotland but we don’t have wall to wall news about it.
I am very glad that Irene ended up being an anomalous storm that defied prediction. It certainly had all of the characteristics and conditions all lined up for a real monster. 950 mb is awfully scary, and it is understandable that we should have taken all steps possible to prepare for the worst. However, every once in a while something comes along that shows us all that we aren’t perfect, and that we still can make honest mistakes. Stuff like that happens, and most folks will understand that. But the political and media grandstanding of the past few days has gone well beyond anything even resembling a reasonable response. In their desperation to attract viewers the media has behaved in a shameless and disgraceful manner. Politicians of all stripes have debased themselves in a desperate attempt to use Irene to advance their own popularity. How on earth did we let these reprehensible reprobates get where they are? And are we going to ever do something about it?
Gary D says:
“Prepare for the worst – hope for the best. My thought is everything worked very well. People were well prepared, emergency management was well prepared, and everthing went smoothly. What’s wrong with that?”
Here’s what’s wrong with that:
New York City probably lost at least one day’s worth of economic output as a result of the Mayor’s decision to shut the city down and possibly more since it is unlikely the city’s transport system will be back in operation for Monday morning’s commute. Since nearly 4,000,000 people work in the city and since the number of employed in the US is about 140 million, then it would be reasonable to estimate that NYC’s economic output is between 3% and 4% of US GDP. Since US GDP is about $15 trillion, then NYC’s annual GDP is somewhere between $450 billion and $600 billion. Thus, the loss of only one day’s economic output in NYC would be between $1.25 billion and $1.65 billion. The city was essentially shut down from noon on Saturday and probably won’t be back in full swing until sometime on Monday. That’s two full days but let’s be conservative and say one day’s output was lost.
The question is, was more than $1 billion in damages avoided by shutting the city down? Did the evacuation of 370,000 people (if anyway near that many actually paid attention to Bloomberg’s pronouncement) save even one life? Was even a single injury avoided? It’s more likely that the elderly and the sick suffered more from the efforts to “save” them than if they had simply stayed put. In the end, the city experienced a heavy overnight rain with some strong winds with the storm nearly over as people woke up on Sunday morning.
So at least $1 billion of economic activity was lost in NYC with no discernible benefit either in lives or in property. For a businessman worth more than a billion dollars, Michael Bloomberg’s decision looks more like political grandstanding rather than the action of a leader carefully weighing the costs and benefits of his actions.
Read this and laugh:
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/08/hurricane_watch_2011_the_wrath_2.html
Note that there is a picture of a guy kayaking in Manhattan. The location given for the pic is the vicinity of West Broadway and Grand Street in Soho. Anyone familiar with that part of Manhattan knows that that the area around that intersection is especially low lying. One can also see that the water is only a few inches deep so the flooding was probably very localized and probably didn’t last very long. In other words, it’s a staged picture.
Looks like Nanny Bloomie stepped in Irene’s Diaper….
The fact that now NOAA has brought up budget cut issues after this storm. Makes me believe they over-hyped this storm ON PURPOSE all for budget issues.
“Now might be a good time for Republicans to rethink their proposal to cut 30% from the budget of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) – the agency responsible for tracking hurricanes. Noaa says the Republican cuts will destroy its ability to warn of hurricanes 5 or 10 days out. That’s crucial lead time to carry out the preparations and evacuations we’ve been seeing this weekend with Hurricane Irene.”
I can see Bloomberg getting it in the neck from many quarters if the subway isn’t running tomorrow morning (and it doesn’t sound like it will be).
John Tofflemire says:
August 28, 2011 at 11:42 am
Perhaps on the next storm (we might not have to wait long!) there should be no official forecasts or they all should include an +/- 2 standard deviation error range. Then we can see how well that works!
Why won’t NYC’s transit system be back in operation?
Ric Werme says:
“Why won’t NYC’s transit system be back in operation?”
This quote from the NY TImes:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/nyregion/new-york-expects-lengthy-recovery-of-transit-system.html?hp
“New York City’s public transportation system remained paralyzed on Sunday afternoon even after Hurricane Irene moved away from the city, and the authorities expected a lengthy recovery that would most likely leave many commuters stranded on Monday morning. “
Lord help us if Irene touches the southern tip of Greenland and a few extra icebergs calve off. You see, that’ll be worse than they thought.
Re: John Tofflemire says:
August 28, 2011 at 11:42
Are you saying this was just another summer thunderstorm, and that nothing serious happened today?
No, a catastrophe didn’t occur, but there was certainly a good chance that one might, and some very serious, widespread damage has occurred. So fortunately, and I do mean fortunately, things turned out better than they could have, but there was still every reason for caution.
Perhaps this is another case of Jonah’s dilemma, no matter what you do you are going to wind up losing.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119034422671234942.html
The MTA could have kept the transit system running on reduced schedules. There were some pictures of tunnels blocked by debris and in these cases, the above-ground elevated sections would have been shut down. Where service was down, buses could have been pressed into service to provide shuttle service to stations still operating. Parked trains could have been moved from low lying areas to more secure locations.
One major concern was that the East River subway tunnels would flood. Well, then operate shuttle buses from the outer boroughs into Manhattan via bridges and highway tunnels at the height of the storm (which was, incidentally overnight as it turned out). One would expect that the MTA would have had contingency plans in case of a hurricane.
Instead, the entire transit system, including all buses, was shut down and all vehicles parked and restoring service will take time. In the meantime, there is no train or bus service in a city largely dependent on mass transit. For transit users, this situation is no different than if the transit workers went out on strike for two days.
OK. Here in the path of Irene in western New Hampshire. As of 4 PM. We’ve received lots of rain this morning and early afternoon. Some flash flooding in the area. No winds to speak of (maybe a few brief gusts of about 30 mph). That’ s right – NO WIND. What the heck? I brought in all my yard items last night. To call this a tropical storm is a s-t-r-e-t-c-h. Anyway, power’s been on all day. Nothing unusual (except the rainfall amounts). That is all :^)
John Tofflemire says:
August 28, 2011 at 11:42 am
“New York City probably lost at least one day’s worth of economic output as a result of the Mayor’s decision to shut the city down and possibly more since it is unlikely the city’s transport system will be back in operation for Monday morning’s commute. Since nearly 4,000,000 people work in the city and since the number of employed in the US is about 140 million, then it would be reasonable to estimate that NYC’s economic output is between 3% and 4% of US GDP. ”
Yabbut for every banker and broker leech that can’t get to work on Wall Street economic output rises from about 100,000 people outside the city who actually produce the things like corn and cars and computers and concrete that make up GDP. No doubt it’s a net benefit.
@ Ric & Kevin,
Thanks guys, I don’t know if you can tell from the tone of my question that I thought all the fuss an overeaction. But that’s just me, hating every moment that “the authorities” use to “tell us” what to do, when, if educated and knowledgable, we’re quite capable of making rational judgements in our own, and family’s behalf.
See this is what’s great about the skeptics camp, which is really just people asking questions. No one gives a rats clacker about your particular philosophical or ideological bent. Just give you straight facts, and leave it up to the individual to deal with.
Thanks guys.
I wonder if it’s possibly the storm actually saved lives? With all the hype, maybe enough stayed off the highways to lower the highway death toll enough to counteract the storm’s toll?
Could it be the MSM has a contract with Proctor and Gamble to help sell Depends?
Storm fails to match the hype …
Commentary: Hyping the Hurricanes
(Saturday update @ 5:15 pm Aug 27; Sunday updates @ 7:55 am & 5:00 pm Aug 28)
For the past week, news and weather reporters have been feasting on warnings supplied by hurricane specialists that the US mainland was in store for “a big one” with Hurricane Irene. As with so much these days, the hype was far worse than the storm! Read the rest at:
http://www.webcommentary.com/php/ShowArticle.php?id=websterb&date=110827
I think the “flooding” was from rain not going down overloaded storm sewers, not from the overflow of the river. I expect the media will utilize this equivocation to cover their tracks.
I just went on CBC’s web site — the remains of Irene are hitting Montreal. They are predicting 50-100 cm of rain for some areas in eastern Quebec. Too bad that our main-stream media stop reporting at the northern U.S. border. It would be interesting if WUWT could continue tracking this storm through Canada, and after it exits Canada, to see exactly what the final fate of Irene will be. Irene — what a cute name.
Great link…
http://www.real-science.com/uncategorized/locations-85-mph-gusts
only two stations reported gust over 85 MPH. Since the numbers were way lower in SC/NC then predicted, I’d say this storm was way overblown. In fact to predict impossible scenarios (we expected steady winds of 55 MPH and gusts of 67 – final results gusts of 40 MPH) should be considered criminal.
I’d like congress to haul in the NWS folks and have them explain what went wrong. And it’s not an excuse to ask for more funding. Based on this link, I’d say it’s time to defund the NWS by 20% to make sure they don’t over-hype a storm. It cost the economy billions.
I dunno… the storm is over here in Southern New England, but Fox News has a number of “scare stories” leading off…. the danger of flooding over the next several days; a huge mobilization of Guard troops to rescue 21 vacationers stranded in a motel; airline travelers stranded; sea foam stired up by Irene carries many dangers….. I’m probably wrong, but it feels like Katrina didn’t get this much attention. As a hurricane, this was an embarassment.
.
If they cannot forecast a storm 5 days ahead, why should anyone believe that they can forecast the climate 100 years ahead? MSN please note – the whole weather/climate industry is a busted flush, because nobody believes a word any more.
.
The forecasts of the track of Irene were right on, and it would have been a real mess if Irene had been two categories stronger (as forecast). So, since Irene kind of fizzled, is her middle name “Global Cooling”?
….Glenn says:
August 25, 2011 at 9:47 pm
Just a curiosity, today on msnbc Bill McKibben said that because of the record warm water along the coast that Irene’s middle name is “global warming”.
A propos of nothing, good ol’ CBC TV had a program today looking back at Katrina. Don’t ask me about it because I changed channel. Probably an emergency change of programming because Irene didn’t offer the sensationalism expected.
Ian
I’m in Montreal. Started raining at about 11 AM. It’s been raining since, sometimes light, sometimes heavy, but nothing extreme at my location. Power has been out at my parents house since 2PM. Wind has been steady, I would guess at 40-45kph gusting at no more than 75kph so far. Leaves and small branches strewn about, that’s about it, but TV showed some uprooted trees. Media says wind should pick up during the night, but they’re very vague about which parts of (the half a million sq. miles) of the province. Probably upper St-Lawrence river area. At least that’s how stormpulse.com has it displayed. Here, it *might* gust to 90kph or so, but we see that on a regular basis during winter storms.
A brief respite from the rain about an hour ago helped out, the ground was getting pretty saturated, but most of it is absorbed now. We’ll see how it goes, rain should slow down even more in 4 hours or so according to accuweather hour by hour forecast.
Overall not a *fun* day, but not scary either. I was outside for a good hour a little while ago and it was nice and refreshing.
Global TV “news” here in Canuckistan is advertizing a feature news program tomorrow (Monday Sept 29) .. its title is “Hurricane Watch!” .. but there is no hurricane. Yeah it will be wet and windy. But really, the hype here is sickening.
Heck the wind speeds I’ve seen advertized so far are a typical windy day in Pincher Creek, Alberta. Okay, THAT is a wee bit of an exaggeration. ☺
“Irene goodnight, Irene goodnight
Goodnight Irene, goodnight Irene
I’ll see you in my dreams “
In southern New Hampshire we had warm rain and strong gusts this morning, and out in the yard an old maple with a punky heart split down the middle and two out of three forks crashed to the ground. When the wind gusted the rain turned into sheets of spray that made a sort of milky smoke, streaming by. I’d guess the top gusts were around forty. Streets were pretty green with leaves stuck to the pavement, and twigs and a few small branches littered the ground.
This was followed by hours of reletive calm and drizzel.
Now a west wind has started roaring, and I’ve heard a few loud cracks out in the woods, followed by crashes. Again the top gusts are around forty.
This has been all the world like a hurricane at the edges, but without the middle. I’ve actually seen enough, just seeing the edges, and would not mind if I never saw the middle. Trees are too vunerable when they are full of leaves, and I like trees more than drama.
ew_3 says:
August 28, 2011 at 4:02 pm
Matt Noyes of necn.com did his own review and his list of the top five (mph) gusts are:
115 Cedar Is, NC
92 Ft Macon, NC
91 Sayville, NY
88 Hatteras, NC
83 Nayatt, RI
How about if before you cite the criminal law that was broken, perhaps you should consider why two of the top gusts are after the storm was beaten up by land, dry air, and cool water. Do you think it’s possible the storm had some odd features that we don’t fully understand? We already know we can’t forecast intensity as well as we can track….
Actually, forget all that – exactly what criminal law was broken? BYW, I think there are also some laws that prevent the NWS from being sued for blown forecasts, but I think that’s only civil law.
Ric Werme
The forecast on this storm really was terribly done. I don’t know why it should be excused how poorly it was done.
John Coleman knew they were wrong:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/28/hurricane-irene-2011/#comment-730132
And I see Lubos Motl has experience with these same type of exaggerations:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/28/hurricane-irene-2011/#comment-730332
So it’s not just commenters on blogs that have questions about how poorly Irene was handled. Actually it is laughable. And thankfully there there were funny videos that came along the way to show just how laughable it was. Talk of destruction was at a catastrophic level. Even the President was part of it. As one of Obama’s men said, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste”. And it looks like if there isn’t one then spend you time making people believe there is.
The question that begs an answer is how could winds be measured at 37 MPH and 45 MPH at ground level, and at 85 MPH and 85+ MPH at 33 feet in the air?
I think when a real, powerful hurricane hits America we won’t be ready just like we weren’t for Katrina. The big difference between Katrina and Irene is that Katrina was a Cat 5 in the gulf so we could see it was powerful. And still we weren’t ready.
Life goes on.
Here was my prog Friday:
=============================
Here’s my prog for landfall location and subsequent track. The eye will come “ashore” half way beween Morehead and Cape Hatteras. I put quotes because it will not really come fully ashore onto the main landmass for very long. By my reckoning the eye will continue NNE mostly over the Sound, just clipping the main landmass a bit SE of Hampton Roads. It will pass literally just offshore of VA Beach, remaining either off shore or just clipping the respective points and promontories along the Delmarva coast and Jersey Shore. There will be a second landfall just East of JFK Int’l on Sunday, mid day, at a Cat 1 strength. Good luck y’all, have a good weekend.
===========================
Landfall was slightly further West than I expected, and the eye passed right over the eastern parts of Hampton Roads. As prog’ed it skittered up Delmarva and the Jersey shore. Second landfall was also further West than expected, at Staten Island.
Also, something else I expected and happened, straight line wind proved to be only a minor issue compared with issues due to embedded tornadoes, the storm surge and, as we are still seeing, the rainfall onto saturated watersheds.
A big old sloppy, plodding beast, she was.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/08/28/kudos-to-the-national-weather-service-and-the-national-hurricane-center-for-an-excellent-forecast-of-hurricane-irene/
Justified?
Irene was rather similar to Bob and Dennis, August 1991 and 1981:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/BOB/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1981/DENNIS/track.gif
Ulric Lyons says:
August 30, 2011 at 10:02 am
> Irene was rather similar to Bob and Dennis, August 1991 and 1981
I think it was much closer to TS Doria,
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1971/DORIA/track.gif
See my comment above at August 28, 2011 at 8:22 am
Ric Werme says:
August 30, 2011 at 6:21 pm
“I think it was much closer to TS Doria,”
It is, and it`s another 10yrs back too.