NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center reports sunspot 1263 burped a big one:
1400Z, August 9, 2011– The largest flare of the solar cycle, an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout, alternatively classified as an X6, occurred today at 0805Z. Region 1263, now poised near the west limb, produced the event and a few others of lesser magnitude in the past day. The region remains hot at this writing.
Click for video, then have a look at the plot below.
A quick rise in the protons at GOES reached S1 (Minor) levels soon after the eruption. Given the location of the activity, any CMEs would likely be directed away from Earth so no significant Geomagnetic Storm activity is forecast.
“It’s alive! Alive!”
“… an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout … ”
We experienced a radio blackout event a few mornings ago … propagation on 80 meters and 40 meters both dropped off like a rock! This was a little before quarter to 9 AM CDT local …
.
First, Al Gore explodes, and now this!
I aint’ skreered. What’s comes after X-Class? Bring it on Sol! 10 to the negative fourth, ffft – I fart in your general direction. I bet you can’t send a ten to the negative second watts per square meter, you ninny.
It should make for some pretty good shortwave radio dx-ing.
I thought solar activity was going to be very low for the next decade or so… possibly another Maunder Minimum.
But NOAA seems to be warning about significantly increased activity through 2013.
So is it more or less?
Related to sun activity, here is a sad, but funny, parody from the onion:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/scientists-trace-heat-wave-to-massive-star-at-cent,21088
e. c. cowan says:
August 9, 2011 at 11:59 am
“I thought solar activity was going to be very low for the next decade or so… possibly another Maunder Minimum.”
Flares and CMEs can happen at any time. Even the Carrington Event occurred in a non max year on the downward side of cycle 10.
SiliconJon says:
August 9, 2011 at 11:48 am
X2
My enter key works too fast.
Try this:
http://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html
And this.
http://www.spaceweather.com/solarflares/topflares.html
Solar activity has nothing to do with any phony GLOBAL warming. Extra heat in the planet’s atmosphere is not accumulative. Those contemporary solar flares have being triggered by Obama not being able to impose carbon tax on American people. If he did; Warmist would have used it as justification why is no global warming. Without that ‘’backdoor exit’’ there will be solar, lunar and galactic activity to blame; instead of admitting that they have being lying about the phony GLOBAL warming.
I strongly suggest: the Warmist con club should leave the solar, galactic, lunar influence on the planet to the horoscope people! When is a solar eclipse, the moon reflects tremendous amount of sunlight, not to come to the earth. But is no GLOBAL cooling. Because the atmosphere shrinks for the duration of the eclipse = releases less heat / intercepts less coldness, if you will. Temperature stays the same. Also, when for any reason the atmosphere warms up – it expands = intercepts extra coldness / releases more heat = no change in temperature! That’s how oxygen and nitrogen regulate to be same warmth units in the atmosphere every hour of every day, every year of every millennia. If one part of the atmosphere gets warmer – another part instantly gets colder. Get the correct informations how the self adjusting mechanism function and much more on http://www.stefanmitich.com.au Stop molesting the essential CO2! Your own body is 25% made of carbon. Time to stop demonizing carbon; start demonizing the Warmist deviates.
A case can be made, according to our own Dr. Svalgaard, that a lower than normal level of Solar Activity can increase the liklihood of big Solar Events. That energy has to go somewhere. Think volcano, and replace magma with whatever the Sun has. We have ice volcanoes on other moons, do we not?
e. c. cowan says:
August 9, 2011 at 11:59 am
I am no expert by any stretch, but I recollect Dr Leif telling us peons that the most severe solar phenomena tend to occur during a minimum. Paging Professor Svalgaard…
Is this connected in any way to all the screwed up satellite imagery of the Arctic and Antarctic over the last few days?
TrueNorthist says:
August 9, 2011 at 3:08 pm
I am no expert by any stretch, but I recollect Dr Leif telling us peons that the most severe solar phenomena tend to occur during a minimum. Paging Professor Svalgaard…
Well, not always, rather they can occur at any time and some may even grow to be large at relatively quiet sun, so this one is not surprising. It occurred in a place where we would expect flares to be more common, namely at a Hale Solar Sector Boundary: http://www.leif.org/research/Hale-Flares.pdf here is the current map of the boundary and the region: http://www.leif.org/research/1263-2011-08-09.png
Same on YouTube
So in the video after the green burp there is a shock-wave that runs across the surface of the sun. For example on the right edge of the image there is a sort of circular feature with black squiggly lines in it. The lines seem to bob up and down. That must a a fair few miles from the burp. So what exactly are we seeing there?
(apologies if the language is a bit too technical)
HR says:
August 9, 2011 at 8:15 pm
So in the video after the green burp there is a shock-wave that runs across the surface of the sun. […] So what exactly are we seeing there?
Just that. The wave is in the sun’s atmosphere, actually:
http://youtu.be/heVeq_anewU
Looking at my own smoothed sunspot data, it appears that time interval between the starts of cycles 9 and 23 was 152.930 years and the interval between cycles 10 and 24 was 152.851 years. The infamous ‘Carrington’ event occurred during cycle 10 on September 1 1859. That was about 151.940 years ago. If it happens again, the solar gun is not likely to be pointed directly at the Earth this time, but it might provide some fireworks to kick off the election campaigns.
‘Flares and CMEs can happen at any time’
‘I recollect Dr Leif telling us peons that the most severe solar phenomena tend to occur during a minimum’
Thank you all for the information.
Terry W says:
August 9, 2011 at 12:31 pm
Related to sun activity, here is a sad, but funny, parody from the onion:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/scientists-trace-heat-wave-to-massive-star-at-cent,21088
Or lordy, I wet myself .
As for the high/low solar activity, it was my understanding that we’re coming into a peak of activity sometime in 2012/2013, but then may go into a lasting minimum afterwards, though they certainly haven’t been very straight with their answers or continuity between the two speculations. Then again, they aren’t very sure of their selves given the relatively lacking data and knowledge on the subject.
It appears as though some more scientists are coming around to the dark side, according to this news article on Onion News:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/scientists-trace-heat-wave-to-massive-star-at-cent,21088/?utm_source=recentnews
I’ve always noted most climate scientists seem to have no knowledge of this star’s influence on Earth’s temperature, especially when it cancels government grants.