Climate variability in East Africa & El Niño Southern Oscillation

Good morning! This is a bit off topic here, but take a look at this link to a Bloomberg strory.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-05/heat-will-spread-from-coast-to-coast-by-mid-august-rogers-says.html
According to Matt Rodgers of the Commodity Weather Group, “coast to coast” roasting is in his forcast over the next couple of weeks.
G.
P.S. I placed this here because the Tips and Notes link is being a bit uncooperative.

The climate and weather is a great subject to read and try to understand ..ths WUWT and the many people that take up the conversation…I just wanted to pass along this very interesting article that has some nice info in it …maybe someone could model it ,or better understand history of what the climate might do next week ….peace Gill now had proof of devastating droughts in the past, but not in the key ninth century. Then he discovered an extraordinary coincidence. He’d studied hundreds of papers on meteorology before he stumbled on one entitled ‘Dendrochronology, mass balance and glacier front fluctuations in northern Sweden’.
It had been extremely cold in northern Europe at just the time of the Maya collapse, but what could possibly be the link? Gill went back to the meteorological records, and found that one of the high pressure systems in the north Atlantic had moved towards Central America at the start of the 20th century. This was a time of both drought in the Maya areas and extreme cold in northern Europe.
Conclusive proof
The scientists discovered that the ninth century had been the driest time in the region for 7,000 years.
Though the circumstantial evidence was growing stronger, Gill still didn’t have direct proof of devastating drought in the Maya areas in the ninth century. He finally got that evidence when a team from the University of Florida visited Lake Chichancanab in Mexico’s Yucatan region.
The team was interested in past climates and measured them by taking cores of mud from the bottom of the lake. The mud had built up over thousands of years – the deeper the mud, the older the shells and seeds it contained.
Back at their labs in Gainesville, they looked at tiny shells from each part of the core, and in particular the two types of oxygen locked in them – heavy and light.
The surfaces of shells from times of high rainfall are dominated by light oxygen. More of the heavy oxygen means the water in the lake was evaporating at that time. A core from the ninth century showed an exceptional surge of heavy oxygen, indicating it was the driest time in the region for 7,000 years.
Here at last was the clinching evidence Gill had been searching for – exceptional drought at the time of the Maya collapse. His quest was over, but it had been an emotional journey of discovery.
‘There’s a certain satisfaction that I have finally understood what happened to the Maya, but as a human being it’s awful to think about what happened’, he says. http://www.world-mysteries.com/Fall_of_of%20Mayan_civilization.htm

TomRude says:
August 5, 2011 at 9:02 am
Another case of the tail that wags the dog… How about ENSO is a consequence of a global event…
And this event is?

Drought and famine in the Horn of Africa in 2000, roughly two years after peak of large El Nino that was followed by La Nina. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/696803.stm
Drought and famine in the Horn of Africa in 1984, roughly two years after peak of large El Nino that was followed by La Nina. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984%E2%80%931985_famine_in_Ethiopia
Drought and famine in the Horn of Africa in 1973, roughly two years after peak of large El Nino that was followed by La Nina. http://countrystudies.us/ethiopia/46.htm
“By the end of 1973, famine had claimed the lives of about 300,000 peasants of Tigray and Welo, and thousands more had sought relief in Ethiopian towns and villages” and led to the overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie.
Drought and famine in the Horn of Africa in 1958, after large El Nino that was followed by La Nina.
Not difficult to spot the pattern, but not easy to get a political situation in the region whereby measures can be taken to prevent widespread suffering.

Scientists have known about the effects of ENSO on East African climate for almost a century. Of course, 100 years ago they didn’t dubb the teleconnection ENSO. But Sir Walker Gilbert studied very good weather records from Tahiti to Austrialia, India, as well as East Africa. The so-called Walker Circulation was discovered through the statistical studies of winds, temperature and rainfall of the South Pacific, Austrailia and Indian Oceans. Sir Walker et als discovered there was a statistical correlation between rainfall in East Africa and changes in the windfield of the Central Pacific. And changes in rainfall in East Africa directly correlated with variations in drought conditions of the Nile Valley.
This was a groundbreaking discovery. But it would not be until the late 20th Century when the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection would be formerly quantified. It is too bad such a bright scientist as Lonnie Thompson would muddy the waters. There is still so much to be discovered about ENSO. Yet, we chase out tails as we concentrate on a trace Greenhouse Gas. Go figure.

Africa, same as Australia get affected by El Nino / La Nina. But affect of those two phenomena is not same every time. Therefore, another force plays a roll in coordination, sometime against those two. Same as the affect of the sun and the moon is different at different times on the sea-tides.
1] clouds go around Australia and Africa as cars around traffic island, especially around Australia. (I have repeated that sentence 20 times in my book) Clouds avoid dry land. The elite will not acknowledge that; because would have exposed that water / clouds control climate ; nothing to do with CO2. 2] the second mutual influence on rainfall for the southern half of Africa and for Australia is: the amount of ice on waters around Antarctic. When is more water covered by ice – the currents bring warmwater there – ice is insulating it – that water goes back north with less coldness absorbed = increased evaporation in the waters north = better rainfall, not just Kilimanjaro. In the ideal world, climatologists would study my work – then follow which tide takes the water where. I.e. the amount of ice on waters around Antarctic and direction of currents will tell them about the following season’s rainfall.
Unfortunately, the same idiots are demolishing as much as possible ice with the nuclear ice crushers ships. Because under their theology; ice is white = reflects the sunlight = they think is an obstacle for producing at least a small GLOBAL warming – to get them out of the mess they put themselves in, with the misleading propaganda… Without taking in consideration that: water has mirror effect also. Plus there is 6 months without sunshine, but lots of coldness to absorb without ice as insulator. Bottom line: the more ice is damaged by those ice crusher ships – water damages much more, thanks to those corridors. More damaged ice on the polar waters = worse climate / more extreme climate. On my website http://www.stefanmitich.com.au you will find some work why northern Europe /USA experienced bad winters. In my book is in more details. Here I will state a bit in two paragraphs:
North Atlantic, Mediterranean; and to a small degree far north Pacific; produce enough raw material for 0,5m of snow for Europe / north America – the rest of the moisture goes north to replenish the ice on Arctic’s water. When is less ice on those waters – they absorb extra coldness. With double strength, as ripples are radiating that coldness south and convert all the moisture in double the amount of snow in Europe / USA = no raw material for renewal of the ice on arctic – simple arithmetic. That has started the chain reaction 3 years ago. The ice crusher ships are speeding the process. Because they are wrong and back to front on everything, they cannot comprehend the damages they are doing. First they have to accept that they are completely wrong on everything; then they can realize that they have triggered a Midi Ice Age.
When northern winter starts – cold /dry winds from north poll go south right to Mediterranean and Asia Miner (Sirocco). To avoid vacuum above Arctic – lots of moist air from north Atlantic goes north. Unfortunately, the extra coldness is converting it all into snow = no moisture left to replenish the ice over the water on Arctic. Unfortunately, the same idiots from both camps still think that: when is and was less ice on Arctic’s waters means warmer planet… bullocks, boys, bullocks!!! As for example they use the Norwegian kayaker in 1883. No boys, it was colder than, when is less ice = colder. You want to find what changed at that time, is on my website, in the condensed version of my book. Why the river in London was freezing? Is all there.
This is one of the reasons I am begging the Skeptics to forget about past phony GLOBAL warmings and help me to get the truth to the public, we prevent the second biggest lunacy. If you learn about the real reasons what started the last big ice age and what made it to finish; will understand what is coming soon. Same ice age is impossible now, because Gibraltar Straits is open for business, but can be much worse. Please help, plus keep this text for a record. I and the laws of physics, we are never wrong.

Stefan;
Aside from some weird English “clangers”, what bothered me most about your post were the sheer self-praising arrogance and the statements about “coldness” being “absorbed”.
“Coldness” is not absorbable. Heat can be lost or can migrate to a colder zone, but that is not moving “coldness”.
All that said, there seem to be some important observations and guesses in your comment. But I doubt you’ll get much of an audience with that kind of ranting.