Last weekend, I took my familiy on a trip to see the Lava Beds National Monument (the kids had a great time exploring the lava tube caves) and also a stop at Crater Lake. Crater Lake happens to have a USHCN weather station, and it is one of the few stations that GISS excludes (they have an exclusion code for it in their software Mosher located some time ago). This is what the station looked like in fall 2007 when I visited:
And here it is was on May 29th, 2011, from approximately the same view:
My lovely wife, who is a better photographer than I am, (and lighter on her feet) took a hike to the top of the snow and got this photo:
Note the rain gauge on the stilt tripod and the tracks leading to it. That was placed there by park staff in an effort to catch May rains…except, it was snowing the day we were there. There is also a snowboard to catch fresh snowfall to the left of the tower.
Note the Stevenson screen has been elevated on the tower, here is a closeup:
Note the MMTS thermistor temperature shield on top of the Stevenson Screen (circular plates), an addition since 2007. It moves up and down the tower with the screen based on snow depth.
How much snow was there at the end of May? A closeup of the snowpole gives a value:
Snow depth on May 29th, 2011, just shy of 10 feet.
The posted weather statement in the visitor’s center is enlightening:
Snow depth, 213% of average. One wonders if it will melt before winter sets it.
Crater Lake was one of the most stunningly beautiful places i have ever seen.
“One wonders if it will melt before winter sets it”.
Is this the start of a new glacier or even a new ice age?
I am busy doing a statistical analysis of some weather stations to determine whether global warming is natural or man made.
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
I stumbled upon some data from Gibraltar (UK) which appear strange when compared to the neighbouring Spanish stations. More specifically it seems the incline of maxima at Gibraltar does not tie up with that observed by other surrounding stations. That would seem like a case of “hide the incline” . Funny enough I noticed the same opposite trend result on Hunululu. As a result I now view all USA and UK results with some suspicion. Any comments on this by WUWT from the USA?
Your kids are blessed to have you as their Dad.
They’ll grow up knowing the truth.
Cheers
Robin
Friday we had a stunningly hot day … and by chance I was sitting in a hall with 800 other people all sweltering away wishing we’d got out our shorts. Saturday, it was back to fleece and I kid you not, I could have done with a bobble hat and gloves. It may have been the wind chill with the dry air, but after and afternoon in the open (60m above sea level in an urban playing field) I needed to warm up.
We’ve had it wet before, before I’ve never known such a cold and wet spell so late into the “summer” … I laugh writing that … I’ve only just been able to cut the grass.
I wonder if that little tree in the foreground of the 2007 image is going to make it?
One theory of how glaciation starts, is that one summer on the Ungava plateau in Northern Canada, not all the snow melts. This then modifies the local climate sufficiently that the snow begins to accumulate, year on year.
Then, if I may be forgiven for using the term, it all just snowballs from there.
Hey, we made the big time and escaped without negative comments! I work at Crater Lake and the snow is a major headache this year. We want to start lake monitoring but the trail to the lake is on the other side of the rim, rats. The snow plows are working hard to make it by the end of next week. You can go here and find a pdf of the latest info, updated daily. http://www.nps.gov/crla/planyourvisit/current-conditions.htm or visit the webcams I installed here http://www.nps.gov/crla/photosmultimedia/webcams.htm
You can also browse our weather station data at http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/crater_lake/index.html The pdf mentioned above uses weather data going back to 1931.
See ya.
Cold winters do not precipitate glaciers, it’s cold summers that do the trick.
hydropsyche says:
June 5, 2011 at 1:43 am
Alas it’s the middle of the night out on Craker Lake so I can’t enjoy the views over breakfast here Paris. The wonders of modern technology!
There is a Gibraltar in the UK, Gibraltar Point in Lincolnshire and the northern mouth of The Wash on the east coast, and the one joined to Spain which the Spanish do not acknowledge. A Rumanian lorry driver turned up in Lincolnshire looking for an address to be told he was nearly 2000 miles from his destination. He reprogrammed his sat nav and departed.
That weather station could do with a clean up as it now violates siting rules. Interesting post and a late summer view would be good as well to see how the snow is holding up.
Hi Scottish Sceptic, meet another! Been there, done that, got the long uncut grass because of the wet wet wet May. Guys abroad, May is supposed to be one of the best months in Scotland. Now it’s June, OH and I don’t talk about sunny days, we just comment on the varying thickness of the cloud cover. We had summer on 4 June. But, to be fair, you can’t complain about rain in western Scotland; it’s normal for us to have frequent chunks of the Atlantic dumped on us. Just not in MAY!!!!
That proves, that man-made global warming is real, freak weather!
Come on Anthony, you know warmth equals snow, geez!!!!!!
Disturbing Imagery Of Declining Summer Snowpack In Colorado
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/06/04/disturbing-imagery-of-declining-summer-snowpack-in-colorado/
Authorities said because of so much snow, they could not open on Memorial Day.
The latest date known for meltoff is July 23, 1983, the year of the big snow in Oregon/California. The earliest date is May 2, 1934. From COOP records back to 1919.
Crater Lake. bad place to bring your children 7700 years ago.
http://www.nps.gov/crla/naturescience/index.htm
Crater Lake, no global warming
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=425725970120&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
rbateman says:
June 5, 2011 at 3:24 am
The latest date known for meltoff is July 23, 1983, the year of the big snow in Oregon/California. The earliest date is May 2, 1934. From COOP records back to 1919.
1934 JAN -1.3 FEB -0.4 MAR 3.4 APR 5.0 MAY 6.0 JUN 8.0
2011 JAN -1.8 FEB -4.1 MAR-4.4 APR-3.4
March and April 1934 were extremely Warm. (Global Warming)
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/work/gistemp/STATIONS//tmp.425725970120.1.1/station.txt
HenryP wrote
“I stumbled upon some data from Gibraltar (UK) which appear strange when compared to the neighbouring Spanish stations. More specifically it seems the incline of maxima at Gibraltar does not tie up with that observed by other surrounding stations. That would seem like a case of “hide the incline” . Funny enough I noticed the same opposite trend result on Hunululu. As a result I now view all USA and UK results with some suspicion. Any comments on this by WUWT from the USA?”
In January we were stranded in Spain because Newcastle Airport was closed due to heavy snow. I checked temperatures and weather forecast on Yahoo’s Weather Channel they were saying that Newcastle was minimum -1 maximum 0. My work colleagues were telling me it was actually -9! This is too big a discrepancy to account for error. Currently Weather Channel is saying High 13 Low 7 in a little box above this it says “Feels Like” which states 9. Now I thought that “feels like” indicates wind chill, there is no wind here, just a very light breeze, certainly not enough to create a 4 celsius subjective fall in temperature.
I have just had to put central heating back on. 12:55 pm, 8.7 celsius outside according to my weather station and rain.
Just re-read my post, should have done so before submission. We were stuck in Spain in January 2010.
http://img863.imageshack.us/img863/802/840601b7.jpg
Picture of the Crater Lake Lodge June 1, 1984. Not of the weather station but does show that heavy snow in late May early June is not unknown at Crater Lake. If my memory is correct it was mostly the heavy drifts left as some of the ground was bare even around the lodge. It is pretty rare for the snow at these National Park Lodges to last through the summer, otherwise they would have been built in different places. My really vague memory was that the snow was 3-foot deep at the summer minimum at Paradise Lodge on Mount Rainier the year they set the all-time snowfall record the winter of 71-72, since surpassed by Mount Baker Lodge.
Elsewhere in the Cascades, Washington State DOT reopened Rt 20, the North Cascades Highway for the summer. Apparently it’s one of the latest openings (May 25th), but the only personal memory I have of the area is from 1974 on a bicycle tour from Palo Alto CA to Billings MT (via Banff, Alberta). I remember people saying it opened late that year too, and there was still 8 feet of snow (2+ meters) at Rainy Pass.
I forget where I heard about it (I don’t see it on Tips & Notes), see:
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/passes/northcascades
http://www.flickr.com/photos/wsdot/sets/72157626170712679/
WSDOT notes reopening in the spring usually falls between late March and early
May.
BTW, that road is a great route for a bicyclist to cross the Cascades. The road follows the Skagit River and I could comfortably stay in a lowish gear. Only around the hydro dams and after leaving the river for the pass did I need my low gear.
http://wermenh.com/biketour-1974/leg3.html
Hmm, 1974 – the analog year for this year wrt Australian flooding, tornadoes, and cold PNW.
Anthony,
Is it a wonder that butterflies and birds developed their survival techniques of flying south for the winter?
hydropsyche says:
June 5, 2011 at 1:43 am
> I work at Crater Lake and the snow is a major headache this year.
I couldn’t find daily snow depth information for 1974, but did see it was a 600+ inch year. How do the two years compare for today? When did the snow cover reach 0″ in 1974?
I had originally planned on riding around the rim on that 1974 trip, but skipped it. The “rolling mountains” of California Rt 1 and Rt 101 had taken their toll. I finally did make it there by car during a break on my family’s 2003 bicycle tour. Nice volcano you have there.
The other interesting observation is that while snow depth is 214% of normal, precip is 132% of normal – ie it is deep because it has been very COLD this spring & the snow has not been melting. True over most of the western mountains this spring.
I have to say (very reluctantly) that this isn’t one of your more convincing efforts, Anthony. Crater Lake is well known to be a snow-trap. Snow has been recorded there in every month of the year. Average snowfall per year is 530 inches (44 ft/13.6m); the record is nearly twice that. Many years, the Rim Drive is closed by snow until mid-June. There are places inside the crater that see so little sunlight you can still find isolated piles of snow there in September. 120 inches of snow at the Park HQ on Memorial Day just isn’t all that impressive. Or all that unusual.
Hello Anthony.
Thanks. You saved me a 4000 mile trip! (Almost).
Just two days ago, over coffee we were discussing Crater Lake.
Were you able to drive to the main area? Hotel?
We visited friends in Bend, Oregon in 1999, who took us there. Only one half of the route was open(west side?). The other half was still snowbound. This was about July 6.
That lake is only about 5000 feet above sea level. Very interesting place.
One more thing. Our friends moved from Chico, CA to Bend in retirement.
Is there a simple reason that GISS excludes this station?
Some of the best times we had as kids was running loose in the state parks !!!
I tell you what, when “global warming” gets up to my hoo hah, I am not a very happy voter!
Scottish Sceptic says:
June 5, 2011 at 1:10 am
I can remember back to 50s, but in particular I can remember snow in June in Edinburgh in the mid 70s. 2nd June I think, 1975.
I don’t want to worry you but from then on until we had a Minster for Drought (Dennis Howell) in the autumn of 1976 we had the worst drought on record followed by record floods.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/The-greatest-drought-on-record.htm
So the hockey stick is real after all; only its pointing downwards not upwards.
Crater lake is one of the natural wonders of the world. I highly recommend everyone to make it there at least once.
Anthony,
Your family outing at Crater Lake sounded fun.
Perhaps a bit O/T but western US snow pack is filling up western reservoirs.
http://lakepowell.water-data.com/
I know its only weather but the temp. records shown on the Crater lake web site seem to show this year starting out not so bad but just refusing to warm up as normally….
It is June and the azaleas and rhodies have just begun blooming here in the pacific NW of the US. These are the markers we use here to denote the arrival of spring- usually in the latter half of April.
That’s about six weeks late. Plus we have 200% of snowpack.
Like Joe Bastardi says we haven’t seen these conditions since the early 1950’s. Too long ago for me to remember.
It seems to me that what we are seeing is quite different than the mid 1970’s. Back then we had colder winters, but the summers were not shortened.
Recently at a science summit at Montana State University, a climate change professor was all set to present on how drought was now setting in on the state as proof. Unfortunately, he didn’t plan on the state having record snow-pack with associated record flooding.
Crater Lake: http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/climgraph.aspx?pltparms=GHCNT100AJanDecI188020100900111AR42572597012x
This winter and spring have been amazing here in Montana. We are now waiting for the mountain snow that fell clear up to June to start melting and swelling our rivers. The lakes and reservoirs are already full: http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_5eebd3d8-6511-5cfd-a685-180dd44e4177.html
Pick a warm summer and hike down to the lake from the north rim. Jump into the water. The viz is great, but the temperature isn’t, so get your fanny out fast. The quick dip is very refreshing. And if it is a warm year, you’ll be dry by the time you get back up the trail.
http://omniclimate.wordpress.com/2010/11/10/a-new-treasure-trove-of-1970s-global-cooling-articles/ Global cooling meme (consensus?) through 1970s, (25+ years after cooling started), fading to 1985, 10 years after warming started. Subsequently we started the global warming meme, with growing consensus at least through the early 2000s, with clear skeptical growth starting about 2003 and becoming significant by 2010, about 13 years after warming stopped. It may take another 7 or 8 years to get back to a global cooling consensus. Maybe by then we will get to a variable climate consensus?
Meanwhile, down in the south central Gulf coast of Florida I was a bit chilled swimming in the Gulf yesterday morning. Seems the water wasn’t yet quite up to the 84 F I am used to at this time of year.
Murray says:
June 5, 2011 at 9:49 am
It may take another 7 or 8 years to get back to a global cooling consensus. Maybe by then we will get to a variable climate consensus?
Don’t bet on it. Alarmists have always conjured up a doom of some sort as a pretense to getting in your pocketbook.
OT sort of-Pamela Gray-how’s the flooding Wallowa Co? here in the Grand Ronde Valley
we’ve got quite a mess. I and wife were up at Joseph about a month ago amazed at
the snows on the north side of the Wallowas, the south west side isn’t so shabby either.
I can view China Cap from my deck. It would be worth noting if some of the snow fields get a little more ah, solid this year….
Re: Crater Lake-Yes I wonder if the snow will melt this year-beautiful place though, love to go through when I get the chance…
So, like, does the lack of snow melt as we approch Summer mean that we can now count Oregon as part of the “arctic snow pack” ?
Just wondering…
FWIW, it’s still winter weather down hear south of San Francisco too…
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/06/04/california-rain-now/
wolfwalker says:
June 5, 2011 at 6:16 am
I have to say (very reluctantly) that this isn’t one of your more convincing efforts, Anthony.
____
??? Was Anthony making an effort to try and convince us of something? I thought he reported the weather facts rather nicely…i.e. high snow pack levels at Crater Lake. How much more convincing does he need to be?
What he does provide is a nice record of yet another weather phenomenon associated with a strong winter La Nina and cool phase of the PDO. So, combine the heavy snowfall across the mountains of the western U.S., with the flooding in Australia this past winter, and the heavy tornado activity in the SE U.S. this spring, and it probably gives you a pretty good record of what a La Nina/Cool Phase PDO can do globally…similar in many ways to the winter of 1973-74. Overall, an excellent benchmark to compare for the next time these conditions present themselves.
Murray says:
June 5, 2011 at 9:49 am
http://omniclimate.wordpress.com/2010/11/10/a-new-treasure-trove-of-1970s-global-cooling-articles/ Global cooling meme (consensus?) through 1970s, (25+ years after cooling started), fading to 1985, 10 years after warming started. Subsequently we started the global warming meme, with growing consensus at least through the early 2000s, with clear skeptical growth starting about 2003 and becoming significant by 2010, about 13 years after warming stopped. It may take another 7 or 8 years to get back to a global cooling consensus. Maybe by then we will get to a variable climate consensus?
____
There’s just one small fly in the ointment…throughout all this up and down “consensus” activity, arctic sea ice has continued to decline on a year-to-year basis. Seems the arctic is more responsive to longer-term climate forcing rather than the short-term ups and downs of the ENSO cycle. As the arctic is, and always has been on the front lines for the earliest signs of AGW…until we see the Arctic sea ice began some kind of long-term year-to-year recovery, all signs indicate that GCM’s are pretty much correct in thinking we’ll see an ice free arctic this century.
As E.M. Smith notes it is still winter here in California as well. Foot of new snow on the crest this morning, lots of artistic avalanche debris paths as the heavy wet new snow slides off. Looks like the snow level was about 9500′, although one slide did make it down the mountain almost to the valley floor.
We have gotten a few inches of snow in town as well the last few storms. June 1 we had a daytime temp of 33F, blowing snow, and maybe an inch or two on the ground. Normal high: 67F.
And more snow on the way. Overnight lows forecast in the mid twenties, highs around 40. That’s 25F below normal.
As to whether all this snow will melt: Once it warms, a 25ft snowpack will disappear in 2-4 weeks.
http://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/cms/ladwp013390.pdf
What would be interesting is if the jet stream stayed south all summer, and we did not get those 2-4 weeks…I suspect that is how we get glaciations. Last summer we only got about 6 weeks of dry warm summer weather, which is enough to finish off the snowpack in the high country. And it snowed every month of the year.
I have it on good authority from a commentator here at WUWT that snow is caused by warmth. Since no one was able to convince him he was wrong I guess he must be right. It is 90 here in Florida so I expect a blizzard any moment.
The SF Bay Area – and most of CA as far as I can tell – is having a very cold spring this year. Typically, we’re well into the 80s and low 90s by now in inland areas, and at least mid to high 70s around the Bay. We’ve been hard-pressed to get above 65 this year, and we’ve had maybe three days over 80 that I can recall. Also, after a warm and very pleasant January (a fairly typical La Nina phenomenon), we’ve had lots of drippy weather right through today.
I was just watching Canada’s The Weather Network where it was noted that the Edmonton airport received 1.4 cm of snow the other day, the first ever recorded June snowfall at Edmonton airport.
Robertvdl says:
June 5, 2011 at 3:14 am
Disturbing Imagery Of Declining Summer Snowpack In Colorado
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/06/04/disturbing-imagery-of-declining-summer-snowpack-in-colorado/
Authorities said because of so much snow, they could not open on Memorial Day.
=//=//=//=//=//=//=//=//=//=
Yeah, Trail Ridge Road, the most altitudinous through highway in at least the Lower 48 and maybe in the whole dang country!
(A “through road” crosses over some mountains and then keeps going, while whatever the opposite is called may go to the summit of a mountain, and therefore go higher than a through road, but then the road ends and you have to turn around and come back down.)
It takes about six weeks of plowing to clear Trail Ridge Road in the spring. Sometimes they finish by their target of Memorial Day, sometimes they don’t. And then sometimes it’ll snow hard again and they’ll re-close the road until the new stuff is cleared. Rocky Mountain National Park – beautiful country!
The blog cited up there ^^^^^ has a link to a story with more photos, here: http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20110604/NEWS0101/106040361/Trail-Ridge-Road-prepared-late-opening
Here’s the COOP snowpack last day of melt in graphic format:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/CrLkSnPack.GIF
Missing are the years 1923, 1925, 1926, 1929, 1945, 1946 & 1979.
IPS Record of Climatological Observations has everything prior to 1992 offline.
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html
until July.
So, one cannot check the original observations for any clues as to those years.
“Notice: NCDC is working toward restoring access to the full period of record for all IPS documents as quickly as possible. Full access is not expected until mid-summer (July). We apologize for any inconvenience.”
Since when does it take 2 months to restore a server from backup? In a pig’s eye.
Inconveniently Convenient.
R Gates,
Well, well,well. An ice free Arctic ‘this century’? But not long back it was by 2120 or perhaps 2130 or maybe 2140, definitely 2150, but if not, 2160.
Still we can always move the goalposts!
Snow as shown is not unusual but if it lasts it might make the park’s global warming message a tough sell this summer.
Tom in Florida says:
June 5, 2011 at 9:52 am
“Meanwhile, down in the south central Gulf coast of Florida I was a bit chilled swimming in the Gulf yesterday morning. Seems the water wasn’t yet quite up to the 84 F I am used to at this time of year.”
That is truly astounding! Summertime begins May 1 in Central Florida.
R. Gates says:
June 5, 2011 at 12:25 pm
“There’s just one small fly in the ointment…”
You are joy deficient. Enjoy the snow! That’s what Anthony is doing. That’s part of his genius.
Dave Andrews says:
June 5, 2011 at 2:29 pm
R Gates,
Well, well,well. An ice free Arctic ‘this century’? But not long back it was by 2120 or perhaps 2130 or maybe 2140, definitely 2150, but if not, 2160.
Still we can always move the goalposts.
___
True, it seems the positive feedback mechanisms are far more active and numerous in the arctic than GCM’s had modeled a few years ago (as is usually the case when trying to model a system exhibiting spatio-temperal chaos). So, yes, it seems we’ll have an ice-free arctic sooner than most models forecast just a few years ago…so there has been a change in degree, but not direction. One of those recently discovered positive feedback mechanisms is the rate of heat transferred through the melt ponds in the Arctic. See:
http://www.igsoc.org/annals/v52/57/a57A101.pdf
But Anthony is a great weather reporter, and it’s nice to see him enjoying the snow at Crater Lake. If (in the unlikely chance) that the snow lasts through the summer and it becomes a trend, then we might see the beginning of a change in climate. In the meantime, many communities in the west are dealing with high run-off levels and potential floods as all that heavy snow is melting pretty fast in many areas.
tom T says:
June 5, 2011 at 12:42 pm
I have it on good authority from a commentator here at WUWT that snow is caused by warmth. Since no one was able to convince him he was wrong I guess he must be right. It is 90 here in Florida so I expect a blizzard any moment.
_____
Can’t imagine who would have said that snow is “caused” by warmth, as they surely have their facts and physics a bit wrong. Certainly we know that snow accumulation rates as measured from ice cores records shows that accumulations are greater during warmer periods when compared to cooler periods. But only a complete fool would interpret these findings as saying that warmth causes snow– for that is not at all what they say. Now some people are confused about the issue of snowfall accumulations, which we’ve seen record amounts of this year, and glacial growth. I can’t imagine that you’re one of those people though. Or perhaps you’ve misquoted this WUWT poster…we’ll assume that is the case.
R. Gates says:
June 5, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Certainly we know that snow accumulation rates as measured from ice cores records shows that accumulations are greater during warmer periods when compared to cooler periods.
I’ll see your unlinked certainty and raise you a Crater Lake, OR snowpack http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/CrLkSnPack.GIF
there’s just as much snow possible in cold AND warm phases of the PDO.
I call your bluff.
Thanks for remembering that Anthony.
In addition to crater Lake there were 4 other northern california stations that GISS had removed from the data. In the paper Hansen merely says this
‘
The strong cooling that exists in the unlit station data in the northern California region is not found in either the periurban or urban stations either with or without any of the adjustments. Ocean temperature data for the same period, illustrated below, has strong warming along the entire West Coast of the United States. This suggests the
possibility of a flaw in the unlit station data for that small region. After examination of all of the stations in this region, five of the USHCN station records were altered in the GISS analysis because of inhomogeneities with neighboring stations (data prior to 1927 for Lake Spaulding, data prior to 1929 for Orleans, data prior to 1911 for Electra Ph, data prior of 1906 for Willows 6W, and all data for Crater Lake NPS HQ were omitted), so these apparent data flaws would not be transmitted to adjusted periurban and urban stations. If these adjustments were not made, the 100-year temperature change in the United States would be reduced by 0.01°C”
Well, I wanted to see the analysis, the code, that was used to make this determination that these stations were flawed. Gavin basically said the paper documented everything, but these words don’t tell me HOW it was done. It just says THAT it was done. Any way that was pretty much why I wanted the code released. When it finally was released, you will see that there is no analysis supporting the removal of these stations. Upon inspection you can see some flakey stuff with the stations, but I was looking for math that quantified the flakiness. In the end, these were excluded by hand.
The argument of course is that including them or excluding them amounts to a tiny difference. That argument never held much water for me. The question, in my mind, was how many other flakey stations were there and was there math that could detect it? I think thats a good question. It doesnt make me doubt the record, I just think its a good question.
Dave Andrews says:
June 5, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Well, well,well. An ice free Arctic ‘this century’? But not long back it was by 2120 or perhaps 2130 or maybe 2140, definitely 2150, but if not, 2160.
========================================================
Dave, I ‘m with you on that one.
They tried to make the Arctic Ice the poster child for global warming.
How can anyone make a claim with a straight face that ice conditions in the Arctic are either historically low or high when we’ve only been recording these levels for the last 35 years?
The North West Passage was navigated 60 and 100 years ago.
Yikes! That seems like a lot more snow than when I was at Crater Lake around this time of year in 2007.
So, how were the mosquitoes? They ran me off last time! 😉
Here in Eugene, it’s been like February until just the last couple of days. Finally made it into the 70s.
Rhodies were later than usual this year, as well as the osprey who live near me on the Willamette. I dunno when I’ll start fishing. The McKenzie is still cold, high, and off color.
hot Hot HOT!
While others are enjoying some unseasonably cool weather (that I envy), we saw 100 degrees F. (unofficially) at my locale here in the DFW area … Hot! But fairly dry (60’s dew point).
A series of pop-up T-storms and accompanying outflow has brought the temperature at the moment to a more seasonable 89 degrees … for that we are thankful.
.
I am here to confirm it really was snowing at the Edmonton International Airport when I arrived at 12:30 a.m. on June 4th. I had traveled from Michigan (beautiful spring weather) – flew to Phoenix, AZ (95 degrees) and then landed in Edmonton (36 degrees Fahrenheit & snow flurries – even took a picture as proof).
Werner’s Sister
Thanks for the snow report.
While you were out looking at the lava tube caves, did you see the one where there was a concrete structure in it. Seems the state built a safe there during WWII to place some state documents for safe keeping. Nothing is remaining except the concrete today. I found that out talking to a local at the Millican store on our way to Pine Mt. Observatory after the cave experience.
There’s a whole area called Devil’s Garden out there that is a great place to explore all though the roads are quite rough. I was lucky to once be on a guided tour with a U of O Geologist. The Roadside Geology of Oregon and Fire Mountains of the West books from Mountain Press have good introductions to the area.
Steven Mosher says:
June 5, 2011 at 6:00 pm
The COOP data for Orleans, CA:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/Orleans.GIF
Orleans is a small town on the Klamath River, with wide benches.
My grandfather had property out there in the 1920’s, and the pictures then look just like it does now. Frozen in time… perfect for station data.
There are no other stations anywhere near that place that record back prior to 1912.
1903 to 1910 looks like a siting or instrument issue, but that’s no reason to toss out the entire data set.
wolfwalker says: “I have to say (very reluctantly) that this isn’t one of your more convincing efforts, Anthony. Crater Lake is well known to be a snow-trap. Snow has been recorded there in every month of the year.”
–Except that snow packs still linger over much of the higher terrain in the northwestern U.S. Some of the summer camps for children in these areas are delaying their normal start time by a week or two.
Crystal Mt, just east of Mt. Rainier, has a base of 70″ and is open for skiing. Their base on New Years day was 38″. Late April skiing is normally iffy, and May unusual. June?
The California runoff season has not yet started:
Snow Water Equivalents (inches)
June 03, 2011Provided by the California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Report generated: 06/03/2011 15:41
Summary By Section
Section
Today Yesterday
NORTH Number of Stations Reporting 30 0
Average snow water equivalent 31″ 0″
Percent of April 1 Average 109% 0%
CENTRAL Number of Stations Reporting 33 0
Average snow water equivalent 31″ 0″
Percent of April 1 Average 100% 0%
SOUTH Number of Stations Reporting 20 0
Average snow water equivalent 19″ 0″
Percent of April 1 Average 73% 0%
Statewide Summary
Statewide Average SWEQ 28″ 0″
Statewide Percent of April 1 97% 0%
The reservoirs are FULL.
Get ready for some action if the weather in the PNW decides to turn hot.
If the weather in the PNW decides to stay cold, we could see some serious glacier growth.
Perhaps someone could send this cool weather to Texas? We broke records here in Houston yesterday topping out at 105 degrees.
Cooling my happy ass!
Latitude said “How can anyone make a claim with a straight face that ice conditions in the Arctic are either historically low or high when we’ve only been recording these levels for the last 35 years? The North West Passage was navigated 60 and 100 years ago.”
A little fact checking is in order:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage
“The first explorer to conquer the Northwest Passage was the Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen. In a three year journey between 1903 and 1906” – That’s right, it tok him 3 years.
“In 1940, Canadian RCMP officer Henry Larsen was the second to sail the passage, crossing west to east, from Vancouver to Halifax. More than once on this trip, it was unknown whether the St. Roch a Royal Canadian Mounted Police “ice-fortified” schooner would survive the ravages of the sea ice. At one point, Larsen wondered “if we had come this far only to be crushed like a nut on a shoal and then buried by the ice.” The ship and all but one of her crew survived the winter on Boothia Peninsula. Each of the men on the trip was awarded a medal by Canada’s sovereign, King George VI, in recognition of this notable feat of Arctic navigation.
Later in 1944, Larsen’s return trip was far more swift than his first; the 28 months he took on his first trip was significantly reduced, and he took 86 days to sail back from Halifax, Nova Scotia to Vancouver, British Columbia,[40] setting the mark for having traversed it in a single season. The ship followed a more northerly partially uncharted route, and it also had extensive upgrades.” – An ice fortified ship, taking 28 months, then only 86 days with extensive upgrades.
So, true, the passage was traversed 100 and 60 years ago. But compare those crossings with this:
“In 2009 sea ice conditions were such that at least nine small vessels and two cruise ships completed the transit of the Northwest Passage.”
So, while it it true that satellite records go back only as far as 1979, the historical evidence also supports the claim that sea ice levels are historically low. Or at least the historical evidence that Latitude cited certainly doesn’t support the claim that they are not. If you don’t like wikipedia, follow the links to the primary sources.
John
I like the funny stuff you publish:
10” snow in approx 7000′ a.s.l. and you “wonder(s) if it will melt before winter sets it”.
I guess you never dealt with measuring snow covers in a mountain region before.
You should do it before you post your funny stories.
Oops!
10″ 10’…and 10′ was in the post, not 10″.
MFK, the “depth on ground” in the report shows 117 inches. Is this not almost 10′?
Are you implying the depth “gauge” is in inches??
I’m sure after they make adjustment you’ll discover that the temperatures in the second set of photos was substantially higher than the first.
Gareth Phillips says:
June 5, 2011 at 2:11 am
“Cold winters do not precipitate glaciers, it’s cold summers that do the trick.”
That’s the general understanding. One might reasonably ask why a small change of 4 degrees in axial tilt is enough to end or begin an interglacial period. Actually it’s that combined with changes in degree of orbital ellipticity. Each have different cycle times and big changes happen when they both align either perfectly in phase or perfectly out of phase. That’s the Milankovich cycle in a nutshell.
Axial tilt and orbital ellipticity don’t change how much energy the earth receives from the sun. It changes the ratio of energy received in the winter vs. that in the summer. When summers are cooler and winters are warmer that’s when the glaciers rule the planet and when the summers are warmer and winters cooler that’s when the glaciers retreat.
Once temperatures are below freezing it really doesn’t matter much from a glacier’s point of view how far below freezing it is. Any temperature below freezing is cold enough to halt melting. In the summer the glacier cares very much how much warmer than freezing it is because every increment upwards accelerates the melt rate. That’s why it’s not cold winters that spawn glaciers and why it’s cold summers that spawn them.
I just wanted to expand on what Gareth said and why it is correct even though it might seem non-intuitive.
Dave Springer says:
June 6, 2011 at 5:50 pm
I was going to ask what the phase lengths were for tilt & ellipticity, and where thier current peak times reside. I spot two large waves in the Vostok/EPICA core records.
They are seen at 730,000 and 685,000 BP, 610,000 and 570,000 BP, 520,000 and 490,000 BP… as if moving together. The record is not altogether clear, but it should be possible to project forward the shape of things to come, and when.
I wonder what the lesser waves are in the core record?
Whoops, forgot my link:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/Vostok.JPG
Sorry for mixing up ” and ‘
I like the funny stuff you publish:
10’ snow in approx 7000′ a.s.l. and you “wonder(s) if it will melt before winter sets in”.
I guess you never dealt with measuring snow covers in a mountain region before.
You should do it before you post your funny stories.
Lest’s hope that teh hot season will come slowly. There a re a coulple of feet water out there. And the snow will be gone by October, I bet (except a couple of small patches may be).
Re “John B says: June 6, 2011 at 7:49 am” about transiting the NW Passage, I ask if icebreaking was involved in any of the passages you list.
Cruise ships operating up there have some capability to handle rigors of that remote location. The paper published in “Arctic” that I refer to later herein lists 27 cruise ship transits from 1984 to 2004, all by “ice-strengthened” or “ice breaker” ships. Half of the trips were by a single Russian ice-breaking ship (the Kapitan Khlebnikov). One of the ice-strengthened ships was “escorted to Victoria Strait” twice (which sounds like it had difficulty with ice) and ran aground on another trip (the Hanseatic of Bahamas registry). IOW, the passage was not easy even for modern ships at the height of the last temperature peak.
The St. Roch was a small ship, reinforced with extra layers of wood material. Would it have had the ability to hit ice hard enough to get on top of the edge of it, which is how much icebreaking is done? Note that it transited the NW Passage when the climate was warm
Makes a great difference. For example in 1969, considered a cold time, an “ice-breaking oil tanker” transited the passage. (According to Encarta 2005.)
And a big problem is ice being moved around by wind and current, so the passage might be difficult in a year with less ice, or vice versa. Makes cruising up there risky. Note the passage is among islands, it is not over-the-top. (Refer to the study by Dr. Holloway and Tessa Sou from the Institute of Ocean Sciences in Sydney BC, titled “Is Arctic Sea Ice Rapidly Thinning?” for some discussion of ice moving around, and the year-to-year variation at several locations. The primary purpose of the paper is to compare submarine measurements of various vintages, but it shows variations in ice location and winds. Published in “Ice and Climate News” of September 2001, and in Journal of Climate July 2002. Refer also to “Sea Ice in Canada’s Arctic: Implications for Cruise Tourism, published in “Arctic” of December 2007, which warns that even with warming there is increased likelihood of “hull-penetrating high-latitude multi-year ice”.)
Those papers show great variability of the amount and location of ice, noting 1998 as a year of unusual melt but subsequent years were typical.
There’s also discussion of a Northeast Passage and when it was navigable.
More on the Kapitan K:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kapitan_Khlebnikov_(icebreaker) says it was built as an icebreaker, and lists several specialized features including to tow another ship up tight. It is a serious ship, with passenger accommodations added when the USSR fell apart.
No surprise it did the largest proportion of NW Passage trips in the time frame I quote.
Hey “Tom in Florida” who said on June 5, 2011 at 9:52 am “Meanwhile, down in the south central Gulf coast of Florida I was a bit chilled swimming in the Gulf yesterday morning. Seems the water wasn’t yet quite up to the 84 F I am used to at this time of year.”,
isn’t that cruelty? Just wait until July and August when I always tell people how humid it is on the east coast of the US compared to the west coast. 😉
I’m chuckling at Colin in Mission BC’s comment about removing snow.
When you’ve seen how efficiently the city of Cedar Rapids IA clears snow, you might think streets & roads people in SW BC and western WA are stumble-bums.
Of course IA gets much more snow, so has more equipment and experience, but still deserves a huge amount of credit. Their level of performance requires dedication and organization.
(Colin, you don’t want to be in some of the mountains north of Vancouver BC when it is snowing or raining much. Behind Lions Bay for example there are incredibly high rainfall rates, which can create a “debris torrent” – a mush of water, dirt, trees, rocks. Killed a few people before bridge designers and housing developers recognized the risk. Environmentalists tried to blame it on logging, investigation showed it was a normal phenomenon – it and the rainfall rate had not been recognized before.)