From the Global Warming Policy Foundation, the questions begin, news coverage follows:
Did UK Government Keep Cold Winter Warning Secret In Run-Up To UN Climate Conference?
Press Release
London, 6 January: The Global Warming Policy Foundation has called on the House of Commons Transport Select Committee to set up a parliamentary inquiry into the winter advice the Government received by the Met Office and the renewed failure of both the Government and local authorities to prepare the UK transport system for the third severe winter in a row.
In a letter to the Chair of the Transport Committee, Louise Ellman, MP, the GWPF stresses that “Lessons have to be learned well in advance of the start of next year’s winter so that we are much better prepared if it is severe again.”
In recent days, the Met Office has stated that it apparently warned the Cabinet Office in late October that the start of the winter would be exceptionally cold. It would appear that the extreme weather warning was kept secret from the public.
According to media reports, the Cabinet Office has been unwilling to confirm whether or not it failed to pass on the Met Office warning to local and road authorities, airports and water companies.
“Not only is the lack of Government preparedness a cause for concern, but we wonder whether there may be another reason for keeping the cold warning under wraps, a motive that the Met Office and the Cabinet Office may have shared: Not to undermine the then forthcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun,” said Dr Benny Peiser, the GWPF director.
It will be important to establish whether the Met Office consulted with government officials about their Cancun strategy and what effect this may have had on the handling of the ‘secret’ cold winter warning.
In light of the renewed failure to prepare the UK and its transport system for a prolonged and harsh winter, the GWPF has listed 19 questions that need to be addressed in order to avoid future debacles.
The full letter is attached below.
Louise Ellman, MP
Chair, Transport Select Committee
House of Commons
London
SW1A 0AA
5 January 2011
Dear Mrs Ellman
Transport System’s Winter Fiasco
I am writing to you on behalf of the Global Warming Policy Foundation regarding the transport system’s ill-preparedness in face of this year’s record cold winter.
The GWPF is calling on the Transport Committee to set up a parliamentary inquiry into the winter advice the Government received by the Met Office and the renewed failure of both the Government and local authorities to prepare the UK transport system for the third severe winter in a row.
This year’s winter fiasco has severely damaged the British economy – and its international reputation – as a result of the country’s ill-preparedness.
It would appear that the Met Office provided the government with contradictory winter advice and we need to find out what went wrong. Lessons have to be learned well in advance of the start of next year’s winter so that we are much better prepared if it is severe again.
Last summer, the Department of Transport carried out a study of the resilience of Britain’s transport infrastructure in the light of the two previous severe winters.
When the Quarmby Report (The Resilience of England’s Transport Systems in Winter) was published in late October, it entirely relied on the Met Office’s assurance that the chance of a severe winter and heavy snow would be relatively small and that the effect of climate change had further reduced the probability of severe winters in the UK; see also Transport chaos not an annual issue, say official report. Investment in more equipment may not be economical given rarity of British snow, says RAC Foundation chairman http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/dec/21/transport-met-office
In recent days, the Met Office has stated that it apparently changed its original advice in October and actually warned the Cabinet Office that the start of winter would be exceptionally cold. It would appear that the Met Office’s cold warning was kept secret from the public.
According to media reports, the Cabinet Office has been unwilling to confirm whether or not it failed to pass on the Met Office warning to local and road authorities, airports and water companies.
Not only is the lack of Government preparedness a cause for concern, but we wonder whether there may be another reason for keeping the cold warning under wraps, a motive that the Met Office and the Cabinet Office may have shared: Not to undermine the then forthcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun.
Throughout October and November, the Met Office repeatedly pushed and published their key message in the run-up to the UN climate summit – that 2010 would probably turn out to be the hottest year on record, culminating in these Cancun-timed media reports: Cancun climate change summit: 2010 was hottest year on record http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8175591/Cancun-climate-change-summit-2010-was-hottest-year-on-record.html
The Met Office was represented at the UN Climate Summit in Cancun by key scientists who briefed news media about their key message; see Scientific evidence is Met Office focus at Cancun <http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20101126b.html>
It will be important to establish whether the Met Office consulted with government officials about the UK’s Cancun strategy and what effect this may have had on the handling of the ‘secret’ cold winter warning.
The transport minister Philip Hammond has asked the government’s chief scientific adviser whether the last three cold winters may signal a ‘step change’ in weather in the UK.
The Met Office appears to deny this possibility. In its submission to the Quarmby Report, the Met Office claims that the chances of a harsh winter are receding steadily. Yet, the Met Office models were contradicted by Sir David King, the former government’s chief scientific adviser, who has publicly warned that the government should plan for more cold winters in the next few years.
It is evident that Sir David King has serious doubts about the reliability of the Met Office’s computer models. This manifest contradiction is further undermining the credibility of the Met Office which makes it all the more important to properly investigate the underlying problem of its erroneous winter projections and government advice over the last three years.
In light of the renewed failure to prepare the UK and its transport system for a prolonged and harsh winter, the following questions need to be addressed in order to avoid future debacles:
1. Why did the Met Office publish on its website estimates in late October showing a 60 per cent to 80 per cent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures this winter? What was the scientific basis of this probabilistic estimate?
2. Why did the Met Office provide the government with a secret forecast about a exceptionally cold start of the winter, at the same time it was publishing an opposite forecast to the public?
3. Did the government conspire to keep the Met Office forecast secret in the run-up to the Cancun climate summit?
4. Did the Cabinet Office fail to take appropriate action in response to the forecast and inform the relevant authorities to prepare the country, to keep the highways clear, to prepare airports?
5. Why did the government let its Winter Fuel Allowance budget be used up with only a fraction of the winter gone?
6. On what scientific basis did the Met Office tell the Cabinet Office that there were early indications of an exceptionally cold start to winter?
7. Why did the Met Office confirm to the news media on 27 October that its probability map showed significant warming in the months ahead?
8. Has the late October prediction by the Met Office that this winter would be mild affected planning for this winter? If so, what is the best estimate of how much this has cost the country?
9. In 2009, the Met Office predicted a 65% chance that the winter of 2009/10 would be milder than normal. Has the Met Office subsequently explained what went wrong with its computer modelling?
10. What is the statistical and scientific basis for the Met Office’s estimate of a 1-in-20 chance of a severe winter?
11. Has the Met Office changed its view, or its calculations, following the harsh winters of 2008, 2009 and 2010?
12. Is the Met Office right to be confident that the severe winters of the last three years are not related?
13. Which severe weather alerts were issued by the Met Office and when?
14. Although the Met Office stopped sending its 3-month forecasts to the media, it would appear that this service is still available to paying customers, the Government and Local Authorities for winter planning. What was their advice, in September/October, for the start of winter 2010?
15. Has the Met Office been the subject of any complaints from its paying customers regarding the quality of its advice?
16. Is it appropriate that the chairman of the Met Office is a member, or a former member of climate pressure groups or carbon trading groups?
17. Should senior Met Office staff (technically employed by the MoD) make public comments advocating political action they see necessary to tackle climate change?
18. Has the government evaluated different meteorological service providers and has it ensured that it is using the most accurate forecaster?
19. What plans has the government to privatise the Met Office?
In view of the high level of public interest in this matter, we shall be releasing the text of this letter to the press.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Yours sincerely,
Dr Benny Peiser
— end
================================================================
Here’s some news coverage:
The Met Office knew that Britain was facing an early and exceptionally cold winter but failed to warn the public, hampering preparations for some of the coldest weather on record. In October the forecaster privately warned the Government – with whom it has a contract – that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter. It kept the prediction secret. Motoring organisations and passenger groups said yesterday that the delay hampered preparations for winter. – The Daily Telegraph. 4 January 2011
The Met Office has defended its decision not to make public a long-range forecast which predicted “an exceptionally cold” winter. The forecaster, which has its headquarters near Exeter’s Sowton Industrial Estate, told the Cabinet Office in October that temperatures would plunge lower than usual, and the winter would be longer than average.–Patrick Phelvin, The Exeter Express & Echo, 5 January 2011
It’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry over the latest antics of the nation’s official weather forecasters. The Met Office now claims that it briefed the Cabinet Office privately in October that the winter would be ‘exceptionally cold’. Forecast? The Met Office didn’t warn the public about the severe winter weather. It’s increasingly difficult to understand what they do to deserve our £200million a year.—Daily Mail, 4 January 2011
You couldn’t have asked for a better snapshot of the chasm that divides today’s so-called expert classes from the mass of humanity than the snow crisis of Christmas 2010. They warn us endlessly about the warming of our planet; we struggle through knee-deep snow to visit loved ones. They host million-dollar conferences on how we’ll cope with our Mediterranean future; we sleep for days in airport lounges waiting for runways to be de-iced. They pester the authorities for more funding for global-warming research; we keep an eye on our elderly neighbours who don’t have enough cash to heat their homes. –Brendan O’Neill, Spiked Online, 4 January 2011
And finally, an article from 2005 that underscores how the Met Office used to handle such news:
Forecasters are predicting that Britain could be facing one of the coldest winters in a decade. Ewen McCallum, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said the vulnerable and elderly would be particularly at risk as temperatures fall. He said it was important to give an “amber alert” to government, fuel firms, business and the health sector. He added that the aim was for “forward planning” to “make sure that government departments and business utilities have got their act together”. —BBC News, 19 October 2005
Yes, well…and, you see…but…you must understand that first we…
Aw, forget it. I got nothin’.
Those are some great questions that should/must be answered.
This only reinforces the perception that this warming hysteria is a hoax perpetrated to introduce infinite controls on peoples lives, the economy, and our beliefs. And let us not forget this is the second consecutive year of record cold in Britain.
May I strongly suggest the Global Warming Policy Foundation make sure they do not forget Scotland – particularly as I believe the FOI law in Scotland is stronger than in England and even if it isn’t the Scottish Government aren’t exactly thrilled with the way the UK government, BBC (known here as EBC) and Met Office treat Scotland.
There are some very tricky questions the UK government has to answer – particularly as the minister for transport lost their job in Scotland as a result and the Scottish politicians may be more than willing to supply the answers if someone were to ask! E.g. Were the Scottish government also made aware of this “forecast”, if not why not and, at what point did the UK government make the Scottish government aware of this forecast for a colder winter?
AGW is nothing but attempt to form a corporativism. (The most known form of corporativism is called fascism.) When Met-Office purposely confused public while giving secret information to privileged in order to allow them to capitalize on fuel and antifreeze speculations on detriment to society they proved the AGW institutions are corrupt plotters against public that serves to cartels of privileged. That approach is peculiar to everybody that have anything common with AGW.
I expect the answer will be draughted in the best “Yes Minister” fashion by some Civil Service jobsworth.
“hide the decline”
Either the Met Office:
(a) predicted a warm winter and were caught flat-footed and stupid (not a great stretch as they like their stupid models)
or
(b) they knew of the cold winter (I would love to know how as they have been so wrong for so long) and lied, making a warm prediction to support Cancun.
Either way, they fail.
I choose the first because they have been so consistently wrong in the past and it would also support Cancun.
If it is (b), then how are they suddenly right? Or are they now channeling Piers Corbyn? In which case, the people need a refund on their crappy supercomputer.
It will be interesting to see how quickly this is responded to by the Member of Parliament concerned, & what if anything, she has to say about it all. The Wet Office is already playing the “told you so”game & passing the buck to the government for failing to act fast enough despite the apparent warning. Personally I don’t believe until it is either confirmed or denied. The are other who are shoveling as I type to find the answers through FOI.
Good luck with Louise Ellman. When she was leader of Lancashire County Council she was an unsurpassed Labour stonewaller and fudger. I don’t believe she changed when she quit the council to become an MP.
I’ll be watching how this situation develops because pinning UK politicians down is like nailing water to the ceiling.
…. and if the Global Warming Policy Foundation really wanted to stir the pudding, what better place than Scotland which has an election on May 5th.
With petrol prices at a ridiculous level, a minister resigning for their “first class response” which led to people spending days on the main motorway from Glasgow to Edinburgh. With a mini repeat of the fiasco yesterday whereby temperatures as low as -1C (irony) led yet again to the closure of the M8 — and there seems no real explanation for this closure except for a lack of gritting and/or vehicles to grit (yet more cost cutting due to global warming rubbish?).
In a country where the politicians are hell bent on destroying the main industry in much of the country (tourism) by littering the place with bird mincers.
In a country where politicians are more than happy to increase the tax on electricity for Scots in order to help the English achieve their renewable obligation target.
In a country where the politicians were warned that they would not get any economic benefit from wind (because I told them in 2000)
In a country where the wind “industry” were asked to set the rate of the renewable obligation tax and where the renewable industry run & fun the parliamentary committee on renewable energy (which if it isn’t corruption what is?).
In a country with a mad kind of voting system that allows even people like the Greens to get in ….
…. it is quite possible that if some sceptic could be found to stand in the election then they might well get elected given the fiasco we’ve just experienced! Even if not I’d love to see the politicians faces if someone stood for lower petrol prices, more spending on the roads and an end to bird mincers!
You can be sure that the global warming religious zealots in the House of Commons will do everything possible to squealch such an inquiry to save their skin, the Met’s skin, and keep the funds flowing to the rent seekers and NGO’s that live off the global warming research grants. When will it stop? How many harsh winters must be endured, and deaths incurred, before the funds wasted on global warming research are used for snow removal and heating assistance for the elderly, infirm and poor?
Met Office: Clearer view of the future for fund managers:
As the potential impacts of climate change on investment portfolios are examined by fund managers globally, the demand for highly specialist research from independent companies has accelerated. The Met Office, a world leader in weather and climate change research, will provide high-level independent advice to enable fund managers, often responsible for pension funds, to reduce the risks from both natural and man-made climate change on their investments.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20081013.html
How many deaths?
Mike Haseler:
“In a country where politicians are more than happy to increase the tax on electricity for Scots in order to help the English achieve their renewable obligation target.” It is not an English target. It is a UK target from the EU, signed up to by TonyBliar and his mainly Scottish-led Government (Brown, Darling etc etc)
We know they are liars, they have admitted as much. The question now is “Were they lying then or are they lying now” in fact, have they ever not lied?
How about ‘Pothole-gate’? Here in UK roads are at third world collapse levels. Is this because local councils, taken in by Met Office ‘forecasting’ decided global warming = warm winters = no more freeze-thaw = cheaper, lower-spec asphalt — which falls apart when the forecast turns out wrong! Can County councils sue the Met Office? What fun. Can buckled-wheeled citizen-cyclists sue Councils for 4″ holes around the roads ironworks? In N Ireland a public official has actually resigned – pretty well unheard of in the UK – the N Ireland water board man listened to the Met Office and didn’t lag his pipes so they all burst and now he’s toast.
The Express and Echo quoted on a US blog run from California – wonders never cease….
One thing is clear, the GWPF sure are huffing at puffing at that teacup. What they’re blathering on about is the question. Supposed leftie conspiracies as per usual I guess.
One thing I would say is almost a dead cert…
The MO did NOT warn the government office!
If they had any clue as to the weather even DAYS ahead, what was Julia Slingit doing stuck at an airport?
DaveE.
While it remains to be seen if the Met Office really did advise that winter’s start would be exceptionally cold, it is unlikely that our ruling classes will be open and honest about the matter. 13 years of misrule by a Scottish Mafia followed by a coalition equally obsessed with global warming cannot help but ensure that Britain will continue to take the wrong decisions because so many politicians prefer fantasy to fact. The exceptions, and there are many individuals who do see matters clearly, rarely seem to have enough clout to change this depressing trend.
Just like the CRU inquiries, this will be swept aside.
Additional questions:
1. Why does the UK government maintain a government-funded weather service?
If answer contains the following or similar:
A: The Met Office is connected to the Ministry of Defense, which needs their forecasts.
Q1: Doesn’t the MoD have its own weather forecasters?
Q2: Is it appropriate for the MoD to issue warnings about climate change?
A: The Met Office provides its historic role of providing weather forecasts for shipping.
Q1: Then why is it doing all these other activities?
Q2: What percentages of shippers rely solely and partially on those forecasts?
Q3: Were the shippers provided with this economically-valuable forecast of a severe winter? If not, why not?
A: The Met Office provides its forecasts to serve the public good.
Q1: How was the public good served by not publicly releasing this severe winter forecast?
Q2: How has the public good been served by the Met Office issuing public warnings about climate change?
Q3: Where and how does the public apply for recompensation from this incompetent provider of incomplete and erroneous service?
A re-direct of the Pleiser letter to Scotland sounds like a good idea. If the Met Office was holding its advice secret to the English Cabinet, perhaps they froze out (literally) the Scots (and the Welsh, BTW). That should make the Scots (Welsh) unhappy – or, which would be worse, the Met Office also told the other governments the “truth” privately, which should make another two sets of voters unhappy.
“What tangled webs”, indeed! I see what Tony Blair hated the FOI legislation: he believes that lies and conflabulations underpin “sensible” government. There is no hope of an improvement in human affairs as long as such leaders, capable technically as they are, are so morally weak and corrupt.
Was Phil Jones advising them?
If there’s one thing that should bring warmistas and skeptics together, it should be an end to bird mincers. Or not. Mike Haseler, please help your non-Commonwealth cousins out here…what’s a bird mincer?
Is this going to be an inquiry like the whitewashes of the CRU Emails? Sorry, once burned twice shy.
I think it is clear why the Met Office did not warn the public. They are selling the forecasts and the public is not a paying customer. We must also remember that civil servants or quasi civil servants in parliamentary systems do not have responsibility to anyone other then the government of the day. The public simply does not count.
If you were composing the following chart, would you not think that the trend line was telling you something?
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif
“the red line is a 21-point binomial filter, which is equivalent to a 10-year running mean.”
Where are the FOI requests to the BBC and the shining of a light on Harrabin’s dead-hand manipulative watermelonery in all of this? After all, it is his uncorroborated blurting on state funded media that started this whole controversy. Let’s see what evidence he had for that, where he got it from and when.
Methinks the GWPF have acquired and locked onto the wrong target. Maybe that was the whole idea.
They have proven over and over that they are not the brightest bulbs in the box…
…now look what a can of worms they have opened up
By trying to say they did not make a wrong prediction again.
And some people still have faith in them, why?
Is anyone really surprised??
Warmists do not consider human lives as important as polar bear lives. Ideology is of supreme importance. Fanatics will sacrifice anything or anyone, as long as it furthers their agenda. Truth has no importance, UNLESS it serves the cause. This sort of behavior will not end, unless someone eventually goes to prison. GK
During the exceptionally cold weather the contribution to the power grid from wind farms was practically nil. So in the future when the UK has gone over entirely to renewables and shut down fossil fuel power generation we will be entirely dependent on French nuclear power (if they have any to spare) to keep the lights on and our electric cars running.
Yeah well good luck with all that but it ain’t gunna happen.
Why would the govt. set up an inquiry into itself.
The Met Office is part of the defense department so you got buckleys chance of getting anything out of ’em.
Do I need to explain what buckleys chance is?
Is the BBC reporting anything on this or are they doing a cover-up by omission ?
Steeptown says:
Mike Haseler:
““In a country where politicians are more than happy to increase the tax on electricity for Scots in order to help the English achieve their renewable obligation target.” It is not an English target. It is a UK target from the EU, signed up to by TonyBliar and his mainly Scottish-led Government (Brown, Darling etc etc)”
Steeptown, first ask yourself why renewable energy policy was devolved to Scotland? It was nothing to do with giving Scotland more power — it was simply a ruse to get the Scots to put up more windmills than was their fair share (which has some logic as we are the windiest country in Europe)
The big problem for the English is that the renewable target is e.g. 10% and the production target is 10% of all consumption. This can be very easily overlooked, but because about 7% of electricity is lost in transmission, producing 10% only delivers around 9.3% … meaning that the English were short on their “fair share”.
In contrast, Scotland started by producing some 8% of its electricity from Hydro, so only need to produce another 2% to achieve it fair share.
So …. someone in England had a cunning plan …. what if we give the Scottish numpties in parliament the “right to control renewable output but not the right to set a (lower) renewable target because we English will ensure that the target is a national obligation which has to be met … and to make up the English shortfall … we’ll tell them that Hydro power is not a renewable which means that they’ll have to produce another 8% (which almost exactly matches the amount that England was short).
So basically, we in Scotland have been stitched up. We’ve been given control over renewables so long as our numpty politicians accept that Hydro is not a renewable and therefore we suffer all the economic consequence of hydro dams littering our landscape and putting off the tourists, but we don’t get the benefit of lower renewables targets.
Erik @ 8:53am
“The Met Office, a world leader in weather and climate change research, will provide high-level independent advice to enable fund managers, often responsible for pension funds, to reduce the risks from both natural and man-made climate change on their investments.”
How the hell are they going to do that with any credibility?
The Met Office and their tentacles are really getting a wierd smell about them now.
Of course, the UK infrastructure could not have been upgraded instantly to cope with a severe freeze, but measures could have been put in place to cope with the likely problems ensuing given proper warning. It is undeniable that in October the Met Office produced probability and ensemble mean maps for November-December-January showing a strong likelihood of higher than average temperatures, with expected temperature anomaly around +0.5 degC above normal. And, we might add, the whole of Finland +2 degC and above, and vast tracts of Siberia as well, where it has been way, way below normal. My correspondent in Finland assured me on December 20:
“We haven’t had so much snow in December since 1915, 95 years ago! And the temperature has been on average 5 to 10 degrees below normal the last two months.”
As far as Northern Ireland, Scotland and South-East England are concerned, the probability that temperatures would be ‘well-below-normal’ was given in October as 95% certainty (which for forecasting is about as good as it gets) that the infrastructure would not take a knock. Yet records were broken all over the place – for central England it was the second coldest December since 1659. Incidentally, CET temperature dataset covers three and a half centuries. The yearly average temperature, averaged across all mean monthly temperatures, in 1659 was 8.83 degC. In 2010 it was also exactly 8.83 degC. What delicious irony that the first and last years in the dataset covering three and a half centuries (the first in the ‘Little Ice Age’ and the last in a time of ‘unprecedented warming’) have identical yearly averages!!
Even as late as November, when early winter was upon us, and they were supposed to have told a different story to the Cabinet Office, the Met Office were still citing the quintile probability of ‘well-below-normal’ temperatures for Scotland and Northern Ireland as between 5% and 25%, so still unlikely. The evidence is still on their website. And this really blows the Met Office out of the water, because even if they try to dissemble to say that they issued a ‘revised’ secret forecast to government at the end of October after they had issued the October probability maps, then they have no excuse for producing different public November probability maps.
If the government actually knew something different then it would be unconscionable for them to blame public and private bodies for lack of preparation. And how can we tolerate a public body soaking up £4million a day still showing their public face on their website and saying something different to their ‘masters’. They must have been lying to one or the other. By practically admitting to speaking with a forked tongue, the Met Office has effectively admitted that it is being used as a propaganda and ‘crowd manipulation’ tool to pump out climate porn. And the Met Office, after all, is a propaganda tool of the government, being part of the Ministry of Defence.
Unless anything different comes out of the woodwork, I remain convinced that the ‘climate change’ narrative that all the main parties in the UK are upholding and pushing with draconian legislation is responsible for perverting the purpose of the Met Office. If you look at the Annual Report of the Met Office following the appointment of that dreadful eco-imperialist Ex-WWF Robert Napier as Chairman (by the government, of course), you will see that it is he who ensured that the Met Office has changed direction to climate change advocacy, since he admits that was his aim.
I wrote a blog post about Napier, where I wrote
“This web of organizations over which Napier exercises influence means that Napier is responsible for the generation of climate alarmism, input into the IPCC reports, powerful secular and religious eco advocacy, directing of investments exceeding $55 trillion towards the Green agenda, monitoring of eco compliance, manipulating government fiscal policy towards green taxes, and control of the built environment towards the green agenda. Napier is an eco-imperialist, and for him and his cronies it’s all about total social control for the green agenda – controlling all bases: investment, building, land, religion, government, taxes, propaganda, media, advocacy, monitoring, climate science and data.”
Met Office credibility is now in tatters, I’m afraid.
It occurs to me that both may be right. That is the climate modelers predicted a warm winter (we have already seen evidence that the Met model is clearly wrong as it anticipates at 4C temp rise per 100 years) and the meteorologist predicted a cold winter based upon conventional weather analysis.
If harsh winters are proof of global warming, why did they decide to keep the cold winter forecast away from the public?
Something got lost – third paragraph of my post should read
“As far as Northern Ireland, Scotland and South-East England are concerned, the probability that temperatures would be ‘well-below-normal’ was given in October as <5%. In other words, the Met Office were predicting with 95% certainty (which for forecasting is about as good as it gets) that the infrastructure would not take a knock…"
Less than 5% for 'well-below-normal'.
Mark Bowlin says:
January 6, 2011 at 9:28 am
If there’s one thing that should bring warmistas and skeptics together, it should be an end to bird mincers. Or not. Mike Haseler, please help your non-Commonwealth cousins out here…what’s a bird mincer?
=======================================================
A whirlygig, or a pinwheel. When they actually serve a purpose, some may call them “windmills”.
Erik @ 8:53am
Didn’t realise it was 2008. LOL, Credibility dealt with I suggest 🙂
Well, now they are proven to be bald faced liars on their work product. This casts a serious aspersion on all their work products to date. Someone needs to acquire the raw recorded data and start from scratch. Anyone?.. Anyone?
Sooner or later the U.K. will have a warm winter and the alarmists will shout “See? See? We told you this would happen.” Nothing will change.
On the west side of the pond, we’ll be capped and traded, by law or by fiat.
Weather is unimportant. Government control? That matters.
What did you expect?
When you put WWF in charge of Met Office with Mr Napier at the top.And the intimite relationsship with CRU and green fascist biased BBC? The truth? Honesty? respect of taxpayers?? You fools!! They are going to keep on lying until you fysicly kick them out.Load your hadn with tomtoes and start throwing and elect people that you can trust.Be a politician your selves! Dont accept this anymore. Kick ass!!
The real question is, Who is culpable for the deaths that could have been avoided, and are there criminal and/or civil remedies available in the UK?
In the US, a person who knowingly withholds a remedy, if he or she is in a custodial or stewardship position, and this contributes to or causes death, then this person is:
1) guilty of negligent homicide, or if intentional, voluntary manslaughter
2) guaranteed to be held liable for civil action.
Who will bring the charges?
Metoff, Madoff I fail to be able to find a distinction in the morals.
Good to see this letter. I was proposing to write to my MP along these lines anyway when I’ve got a couple of hours to draft a formal and sensible letter tomorrow and if we all write to our MPs, all asking the same questions, it might just put the cat amongst the pigeons. I can’t quite believe that all MPs truly believe in Climate Change and if enough people write to them, perhaps a few of them might start to come out and might start to be brave enough to start to question the ideology. I’m not even sure that they will have to start questioning the ideology (apart from those with vested interests) but it is so similar to the days when gays (queers, as they were then) had to keep their heads down and deny homosexuality, scared stupid that they might be outed. If there are enough sceptics prepared to come out of the closet, it might actually start being acceptable to have a sensible discussion. And we might start to stand up for ourselves, the UK that is, against the idiocies of the EU.
No doubt I’ll be howled down for having my head in the clouds, but I live in hope! Get writing, please!!!!!
BTW – Mark Bowlin – bird mincer=wind turbine
Pat “It occurs to me that both may be right. That is the climate modelers predicted a warm winter (we have already seen evidence that the Met model is clearly wrong as it anticipates at 4C temp rise per 100 years) and the meteorologist predicted a cold winter based upon conventional weather analysis.”
Nope – according to the Met Office themselves, they use the same models on the same computer to do both. There is no independence. This means, of course, that the weather forecast will always have the climate change bias being applied continually more and more each year, so if the bias is wrong, the weather forecasts will become worse and worse each year.
Yes, it’s completely nutty. But don’t blame me, blame the goons at the Met Office who call themselves scientists but can’t decouple the actual from the hypothetical.
Mark Bowlin
A “bird mincer” = wind turbine
Hardly toast. In the best traditions of the public sector he may well exit with £500,000 ($750,000). How many pensioners would that have kept alive in the recent cold snap?
bubbagyro says: “Who will bring the charges?”
I’m not a lawyer, but I would expect the Health and Safety Executive could do so under the Corporate Manslaughter and Corporate Homicide Act 2007. It applies to some government (Crown) bodies as well. Under Schedule 1 the MOD is listed, and the Met Office is part of the MOD, so I suspect they can be prosecuted under this act. The Cabinet Office is also listed, so if they try to play one off against the other, go for both.
“Application to Crown bodies
(1)
An organisation that is a servant or agent of the Crown is not immune from prosecution under this Act for that reason.
(2)
For the purposes of this Act—
(a)
a department or other body listed in Schedule 1, or
(b)
a corporation that is a servant or agent of the Crown,
is to be treated as owing whatever duties of care it would owe if it were a corporation that was not a servant or agent of the Crown.”
SCHEDULE 1
Section 1
List of government departments etc
Assets Recovery Agency
Attorney General’s Office
Cabinet Office
Central Office of Information
Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service
Crown Prosecution Service
Department for Communities and Local Government
Department for Constitutional Affairs (including the Scotland Office and the Wales Office)
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
Department for Education and Skills
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Department for International Development
Department for Transport
Department for Work and Pensions
Department of Health
Department of Trade and Industry
Export Credits Guarantee Department
Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Forestry Commission
General Register Office for Scotland
Government Actuary’s Department
Her Majesty’s Land Registry
Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs
Her Majesty’s Treasury
Home Office
Ministry of Defence
National Archives
National Archives of Scotland
National Audit Office
National Savings and Investments
National School of Government
Northern Ireland Audit Office
Northern Ireland Court Service
Northern Ireland Office
Office for National Statistics
Office of the Deputy Prime Minister
Office of Her Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Education and Training in Wales
Ordnance Survey
Privy Council Office
Public Prosecution Service for Northern Ireland
Registers of Scotland Executive Agency
Revenue and Customs Prosecutions Office
Royal Mint
Scottish Executive
Serious Fraud Office
Treasury Solicitor’s Department
UK Trade and Investment
Welsh Assembly Government
pat says:
January 6, 2011 at 9:53 am
I thought the same thing. Traditional forecasters got it right and withheld the info for some reason. Computer modelers got it wrong and blathered all over the airwaves ahead of Cancun.
1- If true, It still doesn’t help the MO much as it shows that they have big communication issues if true.
2- If true, It also shows what type of forecasting is superior…….
“Green Sand says:
January 6, 2011 at 9:43 am
If you were composing the following chart, would you not think that the trend line was telling you something?
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif
the red line is a 21-point binomial filter, which is equivalent to a 10-year running mean.”
No it would not, because there is no way you can calculate a 21-point binomial filter closer than ten points from the end of a diagram. The last ten years is some kind of a fudge, and without knowing how it was done it is impossible to base any conclusion on the trendline.
Baa Humbug: Do I need to explain what buckleys chance is?
Buckleyd if I know.
So GWPF wants the government to order an enquiry to investigate how the government conspired with the met office to deceive the public. Yeah, good luck with that fellas.
About as much chance as getting Stalin to investigate why he ignored overwhelming evidence that a German invasion was imminent. Or as much chance as asking Nixon to investigate the allegations that he bugged telephones. I could go on, but you get the drift.
James Sexton says:
“If there’s one thing that should bring warmistas and skeptics together, it should be an end to bird mincers. Or not. Mike Haseler, please help your non-Commonwealth cousins out here…what’s a bird mincer?”
Windmills, dear Sexton!
(I think the figure is one large bird per bird-mincer per month – but it might have been per year).
bill says:
January 6, 2011 at 9:07 am
How about ‘Pothole-gate’? Here in UK roads are at third world collapse levels. Is this because local councils, taken in by Met Office ‘forecasting’ decided global warming = warm winters = no more freeze-thaw = cheaper, lower-spec asphalt — which falls apart when the forecast turns out wrong! Can County councils sue the Met Office? What fun. Can buckled-wheeled citizen-cyclists sue Councils for 4″ holes around the roads ironworks?
We, the UK’s ~24 million motorists, pay £50 billion a year in tax. But the ‘stards can’t even fix OUR infrastructure. Local Authorities pay out more of the funds on compensation for damaged vehicles than they spend on fixing the roads. The grade of asphalt used, when it is, for resurfacing is banned in many countries due to skidding issues.
———-
In N Ireland a public official has actually resigned – pretty well unheard of in the UK – the N Ireland water board man listened to the Met Office and didn’t lag his pipes so they all burst and now he’s toast.
It is understood Laurence MacKenzie offered his resignation earlier this evening and recommended that Sinn Féin’s regional development minister, Conor Murphy, accept it. MacKenzie is expected to walk away with around £500,000.
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/01/limitations-of-language.html
tty says:
January 6, 2011 at 11:00 am
“Green Sand says:
January 6, 2011 at 9:43 am
If you were composing the following chart, would you not think that the trend line was telling you something?
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif
the red line is a 21-point binomial filter, which is equivalent to a 10-year running mean.”
No it would not, because there is no way you can calculate a 21-point binomial filter closer than ten points from the end of a diagram. The last ten years is some kind of a fudge, and without knowing how it was done it is impossible to base any conclusion on the trendline.
———————————————————————————————
Thanks for that, though not being a statistician I am not sure how it helps me, but I will do some research.
The description is from the Met Office site, they obviously think it is meaningful and “is equivalent to a 10-year running mean.”
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/index.html
“Other information”
“The graph above shows annual anomalies relative to the 1961-1990 average and the red line is a 21-point binomial filter, which is equivalent to a 10-year running mean.”
Question 2 drives me crazy. You can avoid answering it in snow many ways.
\\2. Why did the Met Office provide the government with a secret forecast about a exceptionally cold start of the winter, at the same time it was publishing an opposite forecast to the public? //
A2 #1: The Met Office did not provide the govenment with a “secret” forecast. (it was just a different forecast.)
A2 #2: The Met Office did not provide such a forecast. (One lone forecaster did outside the authority of the Met Office
A2 #3: We always send simultaneous forecasts that predict it will be warmer/colder at the same time to improve our accuracy by “covering our bases.”
A2 #4: Just like when we say there is a 70% chance of showers, that implies there will be a 30% chance of dry conditions. We told people there would be a 60-80% chance of warmer than usual conditions. It’s not our fault if you don’t get the message that there is a 20-40% chance of colder conditions!
Good grief, guys. I’m no lawyer, but I can ask questions better a nailing down facts.
A2.1 in Sept, Oct, Nov, what winter forcasts did the Government receive from the Met Office?
A2.2 Who authored each forecast? Were that all Official Forecasts and if not, what were they?
A2.3 Did any of the A2.1 forecasts warn of a colder than normal winter?
A2.4 Which of the A2.3 forecasts did not reach the public through TV, radio, or newspaper by December 10? Why did they not?
What I think points to lying is that all the private forecasters said there would be a record cold start to winter in August. They included JoeB , Piers C, SOlutions ltd, the polish met off, the russian off etc. The Brits still persisted in saying it would be warm or perhaps more accurately kept stumm. Said Nothing.
Sadly the UK government has never been populated by a more stupid class of politicians than now and will only get worse tomorrow ahen another LibDem gets elected to parliament thanks to a tory PM. Unbelieveable. Some of the senior tories must be cringeing in the pews.
“Mark Bowlin says: Mike Haseler, please help your non-Commonwealth cousins out here…what’s a bird mincer?”
Bird Mincer = Raptor Cuisinart, Bat Masher, Seagull Killer, Flicker Generator, Ice Thrower, Landscape Blighter = windmill.
No,No: They just didn’t know it. They did not lie. It couldn’t have appeared on the screens of their WII Models.
This story definitely has grown a pair of legs!
Autonomous Mind has more about the Met Office, its obfuscation and incorrect prognostications of late. Please read:-
http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2011/01/06/met-office-continues-to-hide-inconvenient-facts/
It sounds like a theory of conspiracy to me 😉
Can’t wait to see the outcome of this one!! Either the Met Office are lying their butts off (which would be very unwise as it’s easily verifiable), or the politicians have deliberately misled the public for political propaganda purposes.
Anyone know what the death toll is as a result of the freezing temperatures in the UK?
It’s unavoidable that heads will roll over this one, the first of many governments caught with their pants around their ankles, and it will scare the living c#$p out of the others. It’s just a matter of who they’ll scapegoat, the Met Office or governMENTAL scientific advisors, both of whom probably deserve it just as much. Either way, the public won’t buy it.
Reference my last comment, here’s one of the Met Office “Warnings” the Autonomous Mind was referring to:-
http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2010/12/27/met-office-severe-weather-warning-ignored-in-northern-ireland/
I think someone needs to send a letter to the MetOffice and ask them;
http://www.nationalreview.com/planet-gore/256035/if-global-warming-causes-snow-do-we-still-need-paint-our-roofs-white-greg-pollowi
“When Met-Office purposely confused [the] public while giving secret information to privileged in order to allow them to capitalize on fuel and antifreeze speculations on detriment to society they proved the AGW institutions are corrupt plotters against public that serves to cartels of privileged.”
If indeed this secret info engendered private market speculation, then would this not be a clear case of insider trading? Isn’t insider trading a crime?
“David A. Evans says:
January 6, 2011 at 9:12 am
One thing I would say is almost a dead cert…
The MO did NOT warn the government office!
If they had any clue as to the weather even DAYS ahead, what was Julia Slingit doing stuck at an airport?”
Maybe they don’t believe the MO either. Does a government believe its Ministry of Propaganda?
The truth of this episode is I fancy mundane and lacking in conspiracy. The Met Ofiice has aso poor a seasonal forcasting record that it announce last year that it would stop publishing them… so no public forecast. Howvere it still made a forecast and told the government what it was. Probably HMG thought that no one would take any notice of a Met Office forecast even if they did publish it given the press derision over previous wrong forecasts. Probably HMG also gave low credibility to the Met Office forecast for the same reason. When The Met office started forecasting a very cold December about a month ahaead it was too late to do much about it by way of stockpiling… apart that is from Heathrow ordering a decent amount of deicer.. which they completely failed to do by the way!
Couple of items on the Paul Hudson blog on the BBC what is of interest is the 2nd paragraph after the American 3 Monthly temperature forecasts in this link.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2010/10/another-cold-winter-ahead.shtml
and this one is interesting too.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2010/10/winter-20102011-update-cold-an.shtml
“Lessons have to be learned well in advance of the start of next year’s winter”
The first lesson is obvious … don’t believe the Met Office.
A 100% certain prediction.
You will receive a non understandable answer to a completely different question, this will be after much delay.
The reply will end with “The UK Met office works constantly to refine and improve its long range forecasting”.
It is a dead duck organisation, it is going through a long painful self inflicted death, its support of all things AGW is the cause of its terminal disease.
I long ago gave up with it, it is beyond hope.
BTW when the Islandic volcanoe was spewing ashes and aerial traffic was halted, Medvedev flew to the funeral of the Polish president. When asked if he was not worried about the ash cloud, he answered that he never takes his cues from the UK Met Office…
Lance says:
January 6, 2011 at 9:17 am
The impact people freezing has on the genera public is like a bitch slap to the face–they’ll let silly inquiries about 1 degree bounce off their collective consciences, but having deaths from such incompetence won’t be tolerated.
We should move over here:
http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/98789_south_baffin_swelters_in_winter_heat_wave/
Vince Causey says:
January 6, 2011 at 11:04 am
“About as much chance as getting Stalin to investigate why he ignored overwhelming evidence that a German invasion was imminent.”
If you believe “Viktor Suvorov” (pen name of a former GRU intel officer) in his book “Icebreaker” Stalin knew alright but made the mistake of believing that the German invasion was planned for a date AFTER his own invasion of Germany.
Dang, should have left my money in Whitewash futures.
SandyInDerby says:
January 6, 2011 at 12:04 pm
excellent post – so there must have been at least some indication of a colder than average winter! S’funny though, I don’t seem to remember this being passed on through the MSM by the metoffice cronies………..
Has Lord Oxburgh been asked to investigate?
tty says:
January 6, 2011 at 11:00 am
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif
Never mind the binomial point scoring. Only an idiot would come up with runaway global warming, or any alarmist conclusions, from that graph. By the way, it’s parameters were seriously tortured in 1992 by the warming gang at the MET and could be an itzy bit biased.
Now remind me, how long did Prince Charles say we had to save the planet? And our ex Prime Minister, the invisible man, Gordon Brown?
Never mind the planet, Central England is doing OK, Jack! And if Global Warming is real, we’ll just fire up all those propellers and relocate latitudinally. That is the master plan isn’t it? No one really believes they are for producing electricity, do they?
Can someone please explain to me how the MO, by discontinuing the issuance of its generally inaccurate public forecasts, might thereby improve in any way, shape or form the accuracy of the private forecasts they provide to their paying “customers”?
roger says:
January 6, 2011 at 1:21 pm
Never mind the planet, Central England is doing OK, Jack! And if Global Warming is real, we’ll just fire up all those propellers and relocate latitudinally
===================================================
For God’s sake Roger, be careful and don’t tip over!
PhilJourdan:
Is this going to be an inquiry like the whitewashes of the CRU Emails? Sorry, once burned twice shy.
and
Dennis Nikols, P. Geol.:
The public simply does not count.
————————————–
Exactly! It makes my blood boil. I’ve noticed a few commenters expressing the same sentiment lately.
For me the big deal is that i just hate being lied to, absolutely hate it. That and having my money stolen from me on the basis of those lies. That and having the MSM (fourth estate) work at the behest of the liars and thieves, to allow them to continue their looting and pillaging.
But the MSM do a great job for their masters. When I said to a colleague at work recently that the snow was hardly a sign of global warming he said “it could be”.
This is how they get away with all the windmill bollocks, the dodgy war on terror, austerity measures for the public after bailing out banks, unbelievable flu vaccine scams (in cahoots with WHO and big pharma), shipping industries abroad, promoting the break up of families by encouraging ‘business friendly’ policies.
OK I’ll stop – I’m starting to go off on one.
This will be a whitewash.
No-one is going to derail the power-grab, futures and pensions tied up in this. One only has to look at the gigantic “industry” that has been built up around the myth.
Sorry but this is not going away without revolution.
As the Met Office is part of the MoD, it’s worth mentioning that the MoD does not shrink from experimenting on the public with wanton disregard for their safety:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2002/apr/21/uk.medicalscience
Kev-in-UK says:
January 6, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Me neither, I used this and other sites to make up my mind.
In the old USSR, the daily weather reports were manipulated, doctored, (may I say homogenosed?) by the communist regime-run television and radio, according to the communist party’s requirements. For example, for the 1st November parade, the weather report was always less cold, less rainy and more sunny than it would actually be, so that more people would venture out for the cameras. Do we see any difference here? Not much, even the politicians running this cli-myth-ological parade are nearly as red as the Soviet communist party. It’s the same red-politics but wearing a green overcoat.
Thier place in in gaol.
jakers says:
January 6, 2011 at 12:25 pm
We should move over here:
http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/98789_south_baffin_swelters_in_winter_heat_wave/
Only Canadians can ‘swelter’ in temperatures just above freezing 🙂
“Throughout October and November, the Met Office repeatedly pushed and published their key message in the run-up to the UN climate summit – that 2010 would probably turn out to be the hottest year on record”
they were right….
Well, it is a stereotype that the Brits obsess about the weather and its is their ‘national’ topic of conversation. Who would have believed that they could so successfully export their focus, politicize it, and then make it so entrancingly, if painfully, interesting? If only so many people were not being hurt by this!
Interesting quote from Met Office spokesman on October 28th:
““If you look at the whole picture across north west Europe, there’s a higher chance of a cold winter than a warm one.””
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html
There’s also this:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2010/probability-forecast
“Yet, the Met Office models were contradicted by Sir David King, the former government’s chief scientific adviser, who has publicly warned that the government should plan for more cold winters in the next few years.”
A warning from Sir David King? You have to be joking. Words cannot describe how stupid that man is. He associated the Indonesian tsunami with global warming: “The tsunami disaster underlines the threat posed by climate change, Britain’s top scientist said today. ”
In: http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2004/dec/31/highereducation.uk1
It’s still possible to get 50/1 with William Hill on the Thames freezing over in London before the end of April.
Following the form, it looks like a safe bet.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/CETDECEMBER.jpg
Or a global financial-system collapse & depression. It’s in the cards.
The shorthand term I use is “the XSSR.”
Onion says:
January 6, 2011 at 2:59 pm
“Interesting quote from Met Office spokesman on October 28th…”
Is that really the best you can do? You pop up on blog comments trying to spin and dredge up bits of irrelevant nonsense, always clutching at straws. Is that what you are reduced to? Pathetic.
Your points are irrelevant to the matter under discussion. The point is, even in the link you gave, that the Met Office were showing higher probability of a milder winter FOR THE UK, which is the nation that they are supposed to serving. The probability of ‘well-below-average’ temperatures for much of UK on their quintile chart was <5%. This is, once again, in line with the Met Office's advice for the Quarmby audit that there was a 1-in-20 chance of a severe winter, the odds of which were inexorably getting longer year on year because of global warming.
The damning evidence is still on their website, though deliberately difficult to find as they don't want the general public finding it too easily. If you can't find it, we can oblige by posting the link.
Erik says: “…The Met Office, a world leader in weather and climate change research, will provide high-level independent advice to enable fund managers, often responsible for pension funds, to reduce the risks from both natural and man-made climate change on their investments.”
Independent of what? This has the hallmarks of either snake oil marketing or a blatant conflict of interest. The words “high-level” make me suspect the latter. “High level” advice must be secret or it’s worth jack-slop to funds in an investment & trading market. If it’s kept secret, that means they can’t reveal it to the peons, who are paying the rent for Madame Metoffsky’s Fortune Telling Tent at £ n,000,000 per annum. Does this smell, or what?
Mark Bowlin says:
January 6, 2011 at 9:28 am
If there’s one thing that should bring warmistas and skeptics together, it should be an end to bird mincers. Or not. Mike Haseler, please help your non-Commonwealth cousins out here…what’s a bird mincer?
Windmills
In answer to my earlier, rhetorical, question, my personal take is that they are lying now; they never knew there would be a cold winter and never told the gummint; this is the lie and, as it makes the gummint culpable, will probably cost them. No politico is going to take the fall.
As far as supporting evidence, someone ealrier pointed out that some Meto-Big Wig got stuck at the airport because of the bad weather. She wasn’t in the loop??
In the UK government agencies are not liable for things like this? Their forecast of conditions very different to what they say they knew was going to happen may have led to the deaths of its citizens, and to substantial financial loses of its citizens. There are also many foreign visitors who were stuck at airports and train stations who incurred financial and other sorts of loses. Shouldn’t the government be liable for these since their actions of a misleading forecast was premeditated?
Benny reckons
———-
This year’s winter fiasco has severely damaged the British economy – and its international reputation – as a result of the country’s ill-preparedness
———-
And this preparation would have maybe stopped the snow falling? How exactly were these preparations supposed to prevent damage to the British economy by snow?
LazyTeenager says:
January 6, 2011 at 7:12 pm
Just clearing pavement and runways would have saved a huge sum and “face” also.
No-one went shopping when they risked limbs.
Visitors to these shores had their goodwill undone when they fell off schedule on their visit.
There is more. We have been “preparing” in a 180 degree fashion. Bassackwards.
Heads should roll – more than just the scapegoats’.
Mike Haseler wrote:
“May I strongly suggest the Global Warming Policy Foundation make sure they do not forget Scotland – particularly as I believe the FOI law in Scotland is stronger than in England and even if it isn’t the Scottish Government aren’t exactly thrilled with the way the UK government, BBC (known here as EBC) and Met Office treat Scotland. ”
Members of the Welsh Assembly have often complained that even senior civil servants in London appear to be unaware that certain matters are devolved to Wales. Law is not one of them (Wales does not, unlike Scotland, have its own legal system). Nevertheless it would also be interesting to know whether or not the ministers in the Welsh Assembly knew anything about the Met Office’s warning about a cold winter.
LazyTeenager says:
January 6, 2011 at 7:12 pm
”And this preparation would have maybe stopped the snow falling? How exactly were these preparations supposed to prevent damage to the British economy by snow?”
LT, your intellectual acumen is as sluggish and immature as your handle suggests. Just one example – if the airport authorities at Heathrow had invested in more snow-clearing machines and de-icer, in the expectation of a bad winter (perhaps warned by simply reading Joe Bastardi’s forecasts), perhaps our major airport wouldn’t have been paralysed for days. There are many other examples but of course you won’t apply yourself to such exhausting mental activity – so much more comfortable to rely on the scriptures and bask in the warmth of ignorance.
Very well said Mr. Haseler, you’ve got my vote!
Perhaps a lesson can be learned from American baseball – three strikes and you’re out. Heads should roll at the top of the Met office and probably elsewhere.
The public are in fact the biggest paying customers. ;>)
A few points:
– One crucial thing missing from the GWPF letter is a question on the resilience of the country’s energy infrastructure. It has been creaking under the strain this winter already (third highest demand this winter on the system was yesterday) and we haven’t even begun decommissioning coal-fired stations in earnest yet. The forecasted peak demand for this winter was an eye-watering 4GW off target. This will in large part be due to decisions and forecasts being made on the basis of data from the likes of the Met Office.
– The quote from the Spiked article is of particular interest, because writers in Spiked have adopted a consistently sceptical stance on CAGW. They are one of the few left-leaning publications to do so.
– Mike Haseler in the comments makes a great point: Any scots reading this really should submit their own FOI requests, because Scotland has its own FOI staff who have had a history of adopting much more muscular rulings on FOI requests and appeals than the English counterpart.
In order to regain credibility as a genuine weather forcasting body, the government should sack the Chairman of the Met Office, Robert Napier, and replace him with a chairman who does not come along with pre-concieved shackles of ‘Green’ and ‘Global Warming’ dogma, which only serve to muddy the waters on genuine weather forcasting. After all, his organisation has either lied to the government or lied to the public, either one of which proved to be catastrophically expensive to the British tax payer.
There should be no hesitation in getting rid of him without delay.
Mike Haseler says:
January 6, 2011 at 8:47 am
…. and if the Global Warming Policy Foundation really wanted to stir the pudding, what better place than Scotland which has an election on May 5th.
…
…. it is quite possible that if some sceptic could be found to stand in the election then they might well get elected given the fiasco we’ve just experienced! Even if not I’d love to see the politicians faces if someone stood for lower petrol prices, more spending on the roads and an end to bird mincers!
Mike, as a fellow Scot I have to say that’s a great summary of where we are. But (as in the USA) the parties have got the political system sewn up, and there’s little hope for any democratic recompense. The only heavy-hitter in Scotland I can think of who could make mince meat (to continue on the mince theme) of the idiot politicians we now have in Scotland is Jim Sillars (ex Labour, ex SNP). He’s an informed sceptic (heard him on Radio Scotland one morning last year, when for some reason they dared to let a sceptic near a microphone), but sadly he is too smart to want to get back into party politics. He was wrong about Scotland in Europe though.
From the Daily Telegraph-
‘As the good Dr North reminds us,as recently as late October the Met Office was predicting that we should expect an “unusually dry and mild winter”. ‘
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100066366/why-did-we-slide-into-chaos-well-duh/
The exact same time they were telling the government to expect an unusually cold winter. It seems quite clear that the British public has been brazenly lied to by the Met Office.