539 new snowfall records were also set.
Since we are often treated to lists of record high temperatures when heat waves occur and they are improperly linked to global warming (like in Russia’s heat wave this summer), I thought it only fair that I show the number of record cold and snow records around the USA for the past week that aren’t linked to global warming.
Of course it wouldn’t be fair to show just the lows temperatures and snow, so here are the high temperature records for the USA in the past week.
And here’s just the lows:
The summary of new records of interest for the past week in the USA :
| Snowfall: | 539 |
| High Temperatures: | 18 |
| Low Temperatures: | 336 |
| Lowest Max Temperatures: | 278 |
Lows outnumbered highs by a factor of 19 (336/18=18.6 ~19). That’s quite the cold snap.*
The coldest?
Deadhorse, Alaska, on Sunday, 26 Dec 2010 at -40°F beating -38°F set in 1984
*Note: some people clicking on the interactive map will see different numbers, since that map will record new highs and lows as this post ages. The headline was originally based on 16 highs during the week (see the highs map for a ratio of 21 to 1) then by the time the post editing was completed and the post made, the number of highs was up to 18, giving an 18.6 to 1 (~19 to 1 in the title) ratio. Later in the day the number of record highs in the one week period increased as new weather occurred (on Dec 31) and reports came in. The numbers were accurate at the time the post started. Weather records, like weather itself are dynamic with the forward moving one week period the interactive map generator uses, so please don’t assume error if you click on the interactive map and the numbers don’t match now, or in the future. – Anthony
No wonder the horse died.
All this proves is that carbon taxes and the threat of cap and trade were enough to make the weather sit up , take notice then back off. Next we have to introduce a snow tax, and eventually we will tax the weather back to the ideal ‘normal’ state.
The weather will just have to learn the hard way, not to mess with us.
It’s worth reminding the alarmists of the difference between weather and climate when they use record weather events as anecdotal evidence of climate change.
Other cities figured there’s no use beating a Deadhorse.
Badda boom!
Using eyeball Mark 1 method, how come the station just south of Houston [Corpus Christi?] has a record high and a record low in the same week?
The Warmists will still be complaining about CO2 when the mile thick ice sheets start rolling.
Good to read this sort of balancing data, however I have to say that 336/18 is 18.67 and not 21, not that it changes a lot but just to have your record right.
It will be great if it was possible to do it at a global level.
Very timely post Anthony, but I thought that the latest model results show that these record lows are not only “consistent with” but also the “result” of global warming.
Thank goodness for the models putting us right, we might otherwise get the silly idea that minus 40F is actually very chilly.
I wonder how many of the record highs, if any, were used in GISS and extended up to 1100 K?
USA record lows outpace record highs 21 to 1 this week,
Do you mean the UHI contaminated Hansonised highs.
Why no mention that Arctic sea ice cover was clearly the lowest ever recorded thru December?
Last nights local weather said that this December will be the coldest on record for Florida … Unless today’s temperature breaks the new hi hi for the day of 323 degrees. The last part I made up, so don’t use it as a climate prediction … LOL
It has been cold in south Florida, our temperatures are struggling to get back to normal. Supposed to be achieved ‘normal’ yesterday, but those dang clouds kept us cold again.
Record low, record high, what’s it matter; it’s a record and that means A) we evil humans are responsible and 2) more research dollars are needed and needed fast! /sarc
The computer models show this recent cold effect is merely Mother Nature’s thermometer squatting down on its Global Warming haunches as it prepares to leap into the stratosphere. Just as we changed “Global Warming” to “Global Climate Disruption”, we’ll change “tipping points” to “squatting points” and the Mauder Minimum will morph into “The Mauder Squat”.
Anthony, there are more thermometers in the Southeast than the West. So is it fair to base a claim on the number of records broken? Also, the Western thermometers were spread over a wider region than the SouthEast. (Just playing Devil’s Advocate here)
Just be thankful it’s only minus 40F and not minus 40C 😉
Same statistic for week ending Dec. 25:
Record highs outnumbered record lows by a factor of 91 (272/3=91)
Both statistics are equally meaningful (and therefore equally meaningless).
And corrected for UHI, who knows how bad the lows REALLY were.
David says:
December 31, 2010 at 4:34 am
> I wonder how many of the record highs, if any, were used in GISS and extended up to 1100 K?
Probably very few. I’ve looked at some of the New Hampshire records in the past and came away fairly confused as to just what sites those are and what quality control is in place, and no idea of the length of the record.
Not that USHCN sites are any better! The best thing for these plots is confirmation that it was hot/cold last week. I generally ignore the record rain/snow plots, too many low hanging fruit to pick there.
TFN Johnson says:
December 31, 2010 at 4:44 am
Why no mention that Arctic sea ice cover was clearly the lowest ever recorded thru December?
I’m not sure if they included the Baltic Sea in the extent. It is where it usually is Jan-Feb:
http://www.itameriportaali.fi/en/itamerinyt/en_GB/jaatilanne/
Peter says:
December 31, 2010 at 5:25 am
Just be thankful it’s only minus 40F and not minus 40C 😉
They are both the same… but of course you knew that.
Since we are ALSO often treated to lists of record LOW temperatures when COLD waves occur and they are improperly linked to global warming SKEPTICISM, what does total look like for some more significant period of time, like the past 12 month? In the last year how many record highs and lows have been set?
In the US and Canada for many months, in fact the year overall, the ratio of record highs to lows was over 2:1. It’s not surprising to have a nationwide cold snap at some point.
Recently, the upper Hudson Bay has been 18 oC above the long term average. Perhaps when the parts of the arctic with open ice finally freeze, we will get warmer temperatures down below.
The only things that are certain are death, taxes and climate change and I’m not so sure about death…
Dear Peter:
There is a big difference between +40 F and +40 C, but -40 F = -40 C.
Just be thankful that “global warming” now causes global cooling. Happy New Year, and do enjoy higher costs for energy in this coming year. Sam in CA
“USA record lows outpace record highs 21 to 1 this week”
So, essentially, one can infer that due to recent cold snap, and therefore the extra need for heat rather than light, the average greenie hippie home grower has not been able to harvest in time for the holidays. Which subsequently could strongly suggest that the lack of a surplus of weed is strongly linked to the lack of record highs.
TFN Johnson says:
December 31, 2010 at 4:44 am
Why no mention that Arctic sea ice cover was clearly the lowest ever recorded thru December?
Why no mention of a whole bunch of stuff off-topic from US record low temps? If you are interested in sea ice, go to the sea ice page.
Gary Pearse, You noticed the winkey at the end of my post. It’s amazing the number of people I’ve caught out with that.
TSA Johnson, not to point out the obvious, but I believe the title said “USA”. Unless I’m mistaken, the Arctic Circle doesn’t quite extend that far South, though my backdoor thermometer here in Wallowa County begs to differ.
“Eric Worrall says:
December 31, 2010 at 3:24 am
The Warmists will still be complaining about CO2 when the mile thick ice sheets start rolling.”
Do you mean like the Iraq news man who denied the Americans were in Iraq when they were almost in front of him?
For educational purposes only, I point TSA Johnson to a study on the affects of winter season Arctic Oscillations that turn negative. What this means is that vortex circulations (which form concentric circles around the pole, each with varying degrees of pressure and height above sea level), especially the high pressure one, moves poleward, while a less tight/lower pressure loosy goosy vortex circulation moves more South. When it is positive, the low loosy goosy one is at the pole and the high pressure barrier-like one is a bit further South.
When the AO is in its negative mode, this is like exchanging a pretty formidable solid oak barrier floor in our Arctic Attic for cheesecloth. All kinds of things leak out from around the perimeter, including ice and wind, along with frigid temperatures.
So what are the expected signs? Three things. 1. Frigid temperatures invading our nice Temperate climates, 2. Lotsa snow further South than would be the case otherwise, and 3. The Arctic core should freeze solid and thick, but the perimeter should be less than expected.
So what do we find? Three things. 1. The deep South drinking hot sweet tea instead of cold sweet tea, 2. Snow up to our hoo haas, and 3. The Arctic frozen sold where land prevents ice moving South and loosy goosy ice elsewhere along the perimeter, as in the Okhotsk and Bering Sea, Hudson Bay, and the Baffin/Newfoundland Sea.
I could add a fourth. We get moose in Oregon.
Case closed.
Now back to USA records.
Q1 2010 in west central Florida averaged 6 degrees F below “normal”. I’m not sure how normal is defined, at a guess the average for the last 20 years. Dec. 2010 in west central Florida has averaged 11 degrees F below normal. Today 12/31 is only the second day at or above normal for the month.
TSA Johnson, sorry for the grammatical and spelling errors in my educational post to you. Too early in the morning for class I suppose.
You people are terrible – it’s time to think of the polar bears!
No one cares about these poor creatures, so get your wallets out now.
As for me, this emotional, unscientific and money grabbing crap makes me want to throw up.
http://www.google.co.uk/aclk?sa=l&ai=CW-MJqvMdTbuICMOdhQey1KyiBo23rK0BjfSUzxWlhoKsHQgAEAEgtlQoAlDL16oQYLu-roPQCqABw4Wl9APIAQGpAhD75x5XALo-qgQcT9AVl1gUd9lgLbyZY9dCyPhtNKlP-rmZZZ2ihYAFkE4&sig=AGiWqtz47uiggMwFic1Ad0-abnw3xqk4mw&adurl=http://www.wwf.org.uk/adoption/polarbear/index.cfm%3Fpc%3DAGT004001&rct=j&q=wwf%20polar%20bear&cad=rja
Now do a 1200Km grid average and try and find anything meaningful in it. Then justify why the Arctic has shown warming in the 20th century.
Pamela Gray says: (December 31, 2010 at 6:51 am)
Poor Alaska, never gets any respect.
“Grumbleher says:
December 31, 2010 at 3:22 am
Using eyeball Mark 1 method, how come the station just south of Houston [Corpus Christi?] has a record high and a record low in the same week?”
Probably the guys at the Firehall decided to do some BBQ after the big freeze and all that lovely brisket cooking warmed up the thermometer located beside the BBQ pit.
To those who think Oregon’s rain and Douglas Firs:
http://www.oregonphotos.com/pagetwentyone-Q-1.html
Seneca is a bit of the Yukon in the lower 48….
Oh and in the article they do mention AGW….
so here are the high temperature records for the USA in the past week.
=====================================================
Some of those record highs are not really record highs,
they just tie an old record from up to 40 years ago
I hope someone is archiving this data, since it’s likely it’ll be “adjusted” to help 2010 be the warmest year ever.
It’s 6deg F here in Reno this morning….
Sorry Anthony both record hot and cold is caused by global warming. They have to have it both ways. ;>)
“Pamela Gray says:
December 31, 2010 at 7:22 am
When the AO is in its negative mode, this is like exchanging a pretty formidable solid oak barrier floor in our Arctic Attic for cheesecloth. All kinds of things leak out from around the perimeter, including ice and wind, along with frigid temperatures.”
Absolutely right, Pamela, but Iwould take the logic a step further as follows from a post I made elsewhere:
Always remember that more meridional jets during a cooling phase will encourage more warm air into and cold air out of the polar regions so during cooling spells the polar regions and high latitude regions immediately adjacent to them will always be warmer at the surface than during warming spells.
If one looks at the standard descriptions of the characteristics of the polar vortices that must be so. Poleward jets run faster round the poles to isolate the polar vortex which gets colder yet poleward jets occur when the globe is warming. The polar vortex is less cold when the globe is cooling.
Anonymous Howard says:
December 31, 2010 at 7:40 am
Pamela Gray says: (December 31, 2010 at 6:51 am)
“not to point out the obvious, but I believe the title said “USA”. Unless I’m mistaken, the Arctic Circle doesn’t quite extend that far South”
Poor Alaska, never gets any respect.
And I would add that poor Pamela Gray needs to go back to grade school Geography.
EternalOptimist says:
December 31, 2010 at 3:13 am
>Next we have to introduce a snow tax,
We already have that here in New Hampshire the money is used to plow our roads.
My idiocy has led to some learnin! The Arctic Region is different than the Arctic Circle. Significant parts of Alaska may lie within the Circle but it apparently has less land within the Arctic Region.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Arctic_circle.svg
There is not a day goes by that I don’t learn something new here or get a mistaken idea smashed to smithereens upon the rocks of facts and figures.
Again in Texas, we see record highs and lows next to each other, This is unlikely and someone should review these stations for accuracy. Likewise in Oregon we have 2 highs literally surrounded by snowfall, just about at Grants Pass. Possible, but unlikely.
Also why no mention of Arctic ice concentration?
By the way the 2006 January extent was the lowest on the record but in September it was near the top of all the years. Extent in winter does not correlate well with September.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Douglas, thanks for the Oregon Temperature link! I bookmarked it! Fabulous.
It’s not just a regional phenomena:
http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/12/globe-cooled-by-056-c-in-four-days.html
At least a portion of a 0.75C rise over the past 100 years is due to AGW. Given that today it’s -9C and two days ago it was 12C, I hardly think that AGW is perceptible.
Of course some above have mentioned the greater warming in the arctic which seems to be real. They want you to explain the ice extent which might be lowest in the last 30 years. But it’s all happened before. The well documented migration of peoples to the arctic about 1000 years ago didn’t happen because it was colder.
Peter 5.25am says Just be thankful it’s only minus 40F and not minus 40C 😉
I did enjoy that. The childish thing is not just getting the joke but being one of the insiders who spotted it! I feel both smug and cross for feeling smug!
Speaking of outliers:
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/12/30/botched-environmental-forecasts/
Climate is like a moving train, it will not stop on a dime but will keep heading in the general direction of whatever drove it that way, long after the driving forces have switched. The Alarmists mistake this for climate disruption as proof of their one-track-minded theory. They’ll never get it right.
I call the stage we are in right now the ‘penalty ice box’. Even if the climate drivers were to shift warm tomorrow, it would be years before the climate reversed direction. Object in motion/stopping distance
Peter Miller says:
“December 31, 2010 at 7:28 am
You people are terrible – it’s time to think of the polar bears!
No one cares about these poor creatures, so get your wallets out now.”
I think its high time WUWT adopted two polar bears-we could call them Jim and Michael- and if we fitted a bearcam to them we could follow their exciting exploits, just as we do the summer sea ice pages.
tonyb
R. Shearer says:
“At least a portion of a 0.75C rise over the past 100 years is due to AGW.”
Yes, but it is a very small proportion: click.
It appears that most of the increase in CO2 is not from human emissions, but probably as a result of prior natural warming, since CO2 lags temperature.
PS: Kudos to Pamela Gray for admitting she had a fact wrong [I was under the same mistaken assumption]. CAGW believers tend to either keep silent, disappear for a few days, or change the subject when presented with contrary facts.
Thanks, Anonymous Howard, for adding to my geographical knowledge with that great photo.
John Day says:
December 31, 2010 at 5:15 am
Anthony, there are more thermometers in the Southeast than the West. So is it fair to base a claim on the number of records broken? Also, the Western thermometers were spread over a wider region than the SouthEast. (Just playing Devil’s Advocate here)
Sorry, you fail as an advocate of the Devil simply because you expect something to be “fair”. {grin}
I believe Anthony is pointing out, quite successfully in my opinion, that while these lows may or may not be significant, their lack of coverage in the main stream media at the same level it would be covered if they were high temps, is significant.
Just an observation.
“Global Climate Disruption” disrupted by Nature
” TFN Johnson says:
December 31, 2010 at 4:44 am
Why no mention that Arctic sea ice cover was clearly the lowest ever recorded thru December?”
The rate of accumulation is approximately the same as for every other year. The difference from year to year of when this amount has accumulated changes but the rates are pretty consistent. So here’s a question for you – why does it matter? Nobody knows what the level of accumulation should be on Dec. 31 of each year. All we have is a brief record which is hardly a representation of what is normal. Take this moment in the spotlight and assure us you know what the ice level should be on this day of this year and if it shouldn’t be what it is, present why. And don’t rely on using the 1979-present data average as that is simply too short to be representative of a norm.
BillD says, “In the US and Canada for many months, in fact the year overall, the ratio of record highs to lows was over 2:1.”
Can I ask you for a source? We have not broken a single record all year here in northern Alberta.
Denver got down to -3 deg F last night for a departure from normal of -9 deg F.
Although here in the suburbs north west of the metro area I recorded 1.3 deg F as the minimum.
For the month Denver is still listed as +4.9 deg F departure from normal, but that will likely change in the next few days (although we will be in a new month/year), as we are expected to dip into sub zero temps tonight.
These warm fall days in early December followed by cold snaps are not unusual. In fact the local weather forecasters talk about the “warm before the storm” as approaching cold fronts cause compressional heating just before they arrive.
For old timers who have lived through a few of our winters, a really warm day in December is mother natures way of saying check your antifreeze in the car, put the snow tires on, fill the gas tank and run to the grocery store, as it might be subzero tomorrow.
Add the effects of chinook down slope winds off the mountains and we can have 50 deg F temperature swings in a matter of hours if conditions are right.
In just a week we will be in the time period when some of our most severe cold can set in, as an example the records set in January of 1962 and 1963. It will be interesting to see if this January comes in the same way.
Larry
“Why no mention that Arctic sea ice cover was clearly the lowest ever recorded thru December?”
Probably because that “record” only goes back to 1979 so saying “lowest ever recorded” is rather meaningless as there is anecdotal evidence that sea ice was as low or lower in the 1920’s.
A look at the record temperatures where I live shows that we have not broken a warm temperature since 1981 or a cold temperature since 1950. We have come close to breaking both of these in the past 20 years. That said, I do not have much fear of breaking the 34.5 C extreme heat temperature of August 9, 1981. However, my feeling about exceeding the record cold of -52.2 C on January 2, 1950, is quite a different story. I don’t think people realise the dangers of extreme cold unless they have experienced it first hand.
Our record daily snowfall was established in 1957.
Extreme snow depth, 1982.
My favourite, the extreme wind chill record of -63, established in 1953.
The Kid From Bristol on December 31, 2010 at 3:19 am says:
“Other cities figured there’s no use beating a Deadhorse.”
LOL! Yes, no use being a sado-necro-bestialist!
🙂
Pamela Gray says:
December 31, 2010 at 8:08 am
“And I would add that poor Pamela Gray needs to go back to grade school Geography.”
========================================================
Indeed, it appears myself, too. All this time, I thought the U.S. had a large ocean separating us from Europe. Imagine my surprise when I find that the U.S. has been in Western Europe all this time.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/the-uk-may-be-cold-but-its-still-a-warm-world-says-met-office-chief-2165492.html#disqus_thread
“This is not a global event; it is very much confined to the UK and Western Europe…” sez Dr. Julia Slingo, head of the UK’s Met office.
This geological shift is confirmed by the world famous American scientist Jim Hansen. http://redgreenandblue.org/2010/12/12/yes-cold-weather-in-europe-still-means-global-warming/
Obviously, given the level of expertise these two brilliant examples of climatology have, I’ve no choice but to come to the conclusion my geography teachers weren’t aware of a continental shift back from whence we came.
Even imagined warming makes the headlines.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Tea-off-Indias-farmers-say-apf-3453251374.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Climate change is now affecting tea – for the worst, of course.
Just have to say, this summer noticed many wasps nests built low to the ground, in one location only one foot above.
When bringing in our heating wood, a bit late this year due to rain we noticed many earth worms frozen right on top of the (pea gravelled driveway) ground directly under the wood. Normally bring wood in after a hard freeze to keep the inside bug count down, didn’t work this year – still finding one or two on inside window sills every week.
The ribbons of migratory birds left about a month later than normal and in fact the herons were still around last week. Last big flocks of geese went – east in mid Dec.
I said, we’re going to have a milder winter, maybe lots of snow, but nothing like the last few years and so far I’ve been half right and I was only guessing. Only needed one plough out thus far… and that’s not normal, usually have had at least 4 or 5 by now. A walk in the nearby woods yesterday, noticed the ground is soggy underfoot, not firm and frozen and in spots, no snow. Smaller waterways have not frozen over yet either.
Right now I’ve watched the temps outside at night “rise” instead of plunging like normal, night after night, which is great for the wood consumption. At this rate we’ll have half our wood in for next winter.
Makes up for the awful harsh winters we’ve had of late and lousy damp cool summers.
Currently we’re sitting at +8.9 C with just clouded over skies. They predicted we’d be at +1c to +4c above today. Even burning the embers down in the stove this morning heated the house inside to, 27.5C, had to open a window and are planning a BBQ New Years Eve dinner tonight.
Don’t like to see folks suffer freezing cold weather where they normally are not accustomed to dealing with it… but I am liking this mild winter for us thus far, helps make up for the past couple of damp cool summers and very cold snowy winters.
And if it helps debunk the earth is getting too hot myth I’ll suffer mild winters gladly.
Happy New Year to all from a cozy warm house midway between Ottawa and Montreal.
Can someone remind me: what is this ” 1200 km ” figure that’s
been mentioned a couple of times ….. ?
Im puzzled by the claim of AGW proponents that global warming will produce more intense storms. A caveat of first year meteorology is that the intensity of mid latitude storms is controlled by the temperature contrast between cold arctic air and warmer southern air masses. If AGW theory is correct then arctic will warm preferentially and a warmer arctic should lead to a reduction of latitudinal temperature contrasts and dampened storm intensities. Ice core records show that during interglacials storms were less frequent and intense. .
Record highs in Southern Oregon? It has been snowing on and off in the valley where I live for the past few days and this morning the grass was covered in a thick frost. The mountains have been white with snow every time I’ve looked….
I don’t buy for one minute that we have “record highs” here.
Britain
“Official! December coldest for 120 years”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/official-december-coldest-for-120-years-2173012.html
tonyb says:
December 31, 2010 at 9:09 am
“I think its high time WUWT adopted two polar bears-we could call them Jim and Michael- . . . ”
I think its high time WUWT adopted two polar bears-we couldfeed them Jim and Michael-
There. Fixed. — Just kidding! I love those guys; what would we do without them?
Happy New Year
TFN Johnson says:
December 31, 2010 at 4:44 am
Why no mention that Arctic sea ice cover was clearly the lowest ever recorded thru December?
=================================
Because that is not the subject of this thread, and, frankly, 31 years of “ever recorded” does not mean much at all.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
OT, but I’ve always wondered why people say that (“both”). Could you ever have just ONE the same, and not the other?
“They are the same.”
Larry(Hotrod)
We in NE Oregon have a similar climate- more like the West Slope. Grand Junction
say, bit more desert and Mountain, than Denver, but, when those warm winds preceed
a front, my Granma called a warm windy day a “Weather Breeder.” meaning time to look out!”
Pamela Gray- those stories about Seneca back in the 30’s and 40’s were confirmed by my Uncle who was a Locomotive Engineer for the Mt. Emily Lumber Co. in Starkey maybe 60 miles north of Seneca.
He had tales that sounded like Alaska interior or the Yukon. Steam worked real well
during those times. They had a little GE-60 tonner diesel that wouldn’t fire up
at all-so it set until it thawed out… But the Lima Shays kept chugging away at -40F or
below….
Anonymous Howard says:
December 31, 2010 at 5:44 am
Both statistics are equally meaningful (and therefore equally meaningless).
======================================
Nice Newspeak, Anonymous Howard! I figured “your people” speak that language.
Also, the sloshing back of records of warm and cold all fall in a category which is called, and I know “your people” don’t have it in their vocabulary…
Its two words: na-tur-al var-i-bil-i-ty.
Also, this little bubble of warmth which caused those warm records last week in the west and is being scooted eastward today by that vigorous trough digging into the west (and unfortunately causing todays killer tornados), may just have been: the “January thaw” come early.
Indeed, looking at the latest ECMWF and GFS prognostications into the month of January, it looks like a lot of blue and purple for the USA.
The cards now hold some intense cold in the coming weeks as, as Bastardi and others at AW point out the 10mb forecast warming over the Arctic, which may put a squeeze down on the ole’ tropopause and really force some bitter bitter air down and out, flooding the continents in the temperate lats with some really bitter air.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
You just don’t get it. Don’t you know that more cold is ‘consistent’ with warming?
So, today it’s 65 degrees in Atlanta. Does that prove warming or cooling? Your headline has confused me.
Asia, too, apparently:
http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/12/global-warming-hits-asia.html
From Thailand to Taiwan, India to Indonesia …
Rex says:
December 31, 2010 at 10:19 am
Can someone remind me: what is this ” 1200 km ” figure that’s
been mentioned a couple of times ….. ?
=======================================================
Its probably more easily illustrated than explained. GISS’s anomaly maps have a smoothing radius of 1200 km and 250 km. The one most published and viewed is the 1200 km one. This lends the appearance of good station coverage of the globe. Also, it skews things to an unrealistic view. Click on both links provided and compare. Both maps are made from the exact same data.
Notice first, how much coverage GISS really doesn’t have. Then, for this month, look to South America. But in any given month, see how the project temp coverage where there are no thermometers (none that they use anyway.). Lots of other things to notice too, but that should suffice for a starter kit.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2010&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2010&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=reg
Pamela Gray says:
December 31, 2010 at 7:22 am
That is the best explanation of the Arctic Oscillation I’ve seen yet! I’m visiting relatives in Milwaukee, and it is 52 degrees right now; it will get back to winter normals tomorrow. So I don’t know anything about weather here, other than it gets crazy. I hope you can keep the moose out of your back yard.
Brian H says:
December 31, 2010 at 11:01 am
OT, but I’ve always wondered why people say that (“both”). Could you ever have just ONE the same, and not the other?
“They are the same.”
___________________________________________________________
The same reason folks say “skin rash”. Where else would a “rash” appear? The same is true for “statistically significant” and also any qualifier for the word “unique”. Unique is a dichotomous term…like “pregnant”.
[My pet peeve: “separated out.” ~dbs]
John says:
December 31, 2010 at 11:32 am
So, today it’s 65 degrees in Atlanta. Does that prove warming or cooling? Your headline has confused me.
========================================================
Satire, John, satire. Read the article. Since we are often treated to lists of record high temperatures when heat waves occur and they are improperly linked to global warming (like in Russia’s heat wave this summer), I thought it only fair that I show the number of record cold and snow records around the USA for the past week that aren’t linked to global warming.
Silly Anthony only italicized “aren’t”. He should have known to embolden, as I have done for you. You can view this article as a poke at all of the hyperbole we see in MSM as weather events get trotted out as “proof of AGW/CC/CD/??” Satire with a touch of irony, wrapped nicely in truth.
Rex says: at 10:19 am
“Can someone remind me: what is this ” 1200 km ” figure . . .”
Here is one of several discussions on WUWT. Have a look:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/28/giss-polar-interpolation/
Has anyone looked at the density of weather-stations?
If you have weather-stations significantly more closely packed where the cold records are being set, then you will find more cold records than hot ones, regardless of what is actually happening. With the East coast being heavily populated, and cold, while the hot records are inland and away from the Great Lakes, it looks like this may be happening. I think a fuller analysis may be needed.
Also, warming or cooling, possible danger lies in more extreme temperatures regardless of the presence or absence of a change in the overall average. I see little evidence for global warming, but there may be something actually more dangerous afoot on a large scale.
Pat, TheGoodLocust:
I share your skepticism about the reported highs in SW Oregon, at least as to Riddle. Took pictures up there last summer, look at the gallery and see how close the MMTS is to the building and parking lot. I’d like to know what might have been going on there on Christmas Eve.
Down here in Wolf Creek, it’s been colder’n a mother-in-law’s kiss.
The Weather Channel loves to post the record highs to record lows ratio all of the time, but this stat is strangely absent lately. In their review of 2010, they do post how incredibly hot it has been, though……
James,
Don’t forget the European invasion of Australia.
Maybe someone can enlighten me.
The maps show record snowfalls for: Chinook, Choteau, Flatwillow, Fort Assinniboine, Green River, New Meadows, and Riverton (all in Montana or Wyoming). I had the privilege of visiting each of these stations last year. Only 2 (Fort Assinniboine and New Meadows) show snowboards for measurement in my pictures. It’s possible that some of the other 5 had them in other locations, but I frankly doubt it.
So my question: Where are these snow measurements coming from?
Is it possible that snowfall is being ‘infilled’ from ‘nearby’ sites?
Ralph Stea says:
December 31, 2010 at 10:35 am
Im puzzled by the claim of AGW proponents that global warming will produce more intense storms. A caveat of first year meteorology is that the intensity of mid latitude storms is controlled by the temperature contrast between cold arctic air and warmer southern air masses. If AGW theory is correct then arctic will warm preferentially and a warmer arctic should lead to a reduction of latitudinal temperature contrasts and dampened storm intensities. Ice core records show that during interglacials storms were less frequent and intense. .”
Ralph, you’re only confused because you are thinking scientifically about AGW. You need to think politically in order to be on par with the AGW crowd. Throw the science and logic out the window and just remember that every weather event (every single one) supports AGW BY DEFINITION!
The 539 new snowfall records ARE evidence for global warming. You see, as the Arctic warms, more moisture enters the atmosphere, which causes greater snowfall events to occur. That’s why you always see the worst blizzards during the summer time when the Arctic is the warmest. /sarc
Very interesting interview (audio) here:
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/interview-with-iweather-onlines-peter.html#more
It’s from the new Irish web site Irish Weather On line.
Discusses sun spots, Oscillations El Nino Jet streams and Climate change…
EXTRACT from the text on the site with reference to the subject of the last three years’ harsh weather both in Europe and The US.:
“A few years ago mild winters were the norm, but three harsh winters have now culminated in recent record-breaking cold in NE USA and NW Europe. A speed bump in the progression of global warming? Or does the severe cold herald a dip into a sunspot-induced mini Ice Age?
Climatologist and Irish Weather Online forecaster Peter O’Donnell speaks to Fintan Dunne about the weather patterns now ruling and to discuss the prospects for the winter ahead. “
In a nod to another commenter above, I believe what we have is Natural Cyclic Disruption of Anthropogenic Climate Disruption. Which means that when Global Warming returns with a vengeance, it will have to be called Overriding Anthropogenic Vengeful Disruption of Natural Cyclic Disruption of Anthropogenic Climate Disruption. Until the next natural cycle commences and then it will be called Natural Oscillation of Overriding Anthropogenic Vengeful Disruption of Natural Cyclic Disruption of Anthropogenic Climate Disruption. By then we will be on the cusp of the next ice age, which will be called Glacial Age Disruption of Natural Oscillation of Overriding Anthropogenic Vengeful Disruption of Natural Cyclic Disruption of Anthropogenic Climate Disruption.
There. In one fell swoop, I may have brought the two sides together on a title we can all agree on. Ronald Reagan would be proud of me.
The thing many people fail to realize is that there is a cause and effect to global warming man made or not.
When global temps rise so does the evaporation of water, and this is why computer models show us a greater rate of rainfall and snow fall all linked to higher global temperature peaks. This is the cause of these record setting snow falls.
Also, because there are equal and opposite reactions for everything, the coldest of air is drawn down into unusually strange patterns by the record setting highs in other locations creating record setting cold temps too.
Worldwide the record setting highs outnumbered the record setting lows by 2 to 1 for the year 2010.
“Why no mention that Arctic sea ice cover was clearly the lowest ever recorded thru December?”
You could also add the fact that thicker and more robust multi-year ice has doubled at this date since 2008.
Negative anomalies are not allowed and therefore get filtered out by GISS Dr. Jim’s special code.
Our local weather site here reorded Sept to Nov at 0,5C below the long term average with December closing at 3.2 below the long term average. I expect that these figures will be filtered out by GISS.
hotrod ( Larry L ) says: Denver got down to -3 deg F last night…For old timers who have lived through a few of our winters, a really warm day in December is mother natures way of saying check your antifreeze in the car, put the snow tires on, fill the gas tank and run to the grocery store, as it might be subzero tomorrow….”
Been there, watched the natives put on their bald snow tires and drive like maniacs. I blamed it on hypoxia–their brains weren’t getting enough O² at that altitude. One iced-over morning, I saw a Ford station wagon that was all the way up a telephone pole guy wire at the corner of Quincy and Yosemite, nothing touching the ground but the rear bumper. It took me 3 hours to get home one night in a snowstorm. I decided to leave Denver after the first hour. Snowed in June, there, too. Nice people, but I’ve never regretted leaving Colorado.
Glacial Age Disruption of Natural Oscillation of Overriding Anthropogenic Vengeful Disruption of Natural Cyclic Disruption of Anthropogenic Climate Disruption..
GADNOOAVDNCDACD……..catchy!
frank, I assume you are being sarcastic. Or 10.
I love Colorado, being a native, but our wonderful La Nina autumn just came to a screeching halt yesterday. From balmy 50 degrees on Wed to a high of 10 F today, but only a few inches of snow so still dry as a bone. We had wind chills of -15 last night – brrrrrr! The mountains are much worse with multiple feet of snow every week and -25 to -50 F wind chills forecasted for tonight.
We usually wait until the Stock Show for these kind of temps.
I don’t know if we had a low max temp today but we reached a high of 18 F which equaled the historic average low for this date. Nice weather for North Eastern Arizona.
As Bertrand Russell might have said:
It all depends on what you mean by ‘warming’
and in similar appreciation of how lanuage is used to influence
our thinking, I look forward to some claim about the Antarctic
having had its ‘hottest’ year
If 250km or 1200km represent limits of extrapolation from an individual
temperature station, then that may apply in continental land masses, but
certainly does NOT apply where I live … New Zealand. Here, you could
not legitimately extrapolate beyond 20km … and I’m not joking. That is
why the NIWA “Seven Key Stations” data cannot be used as claimed by
officialdom.
I would like to (rather humbly) wish all of you who have been reading, commenting on, following, pondering about, contributing to, criticizing, etc., them excellent postings by Watts and friends a most challenging yet successful new year.
And I would like to thank Watts (and friends) for the remarkable work they’ve done, even though I lack the knowledge to appreciate it in full. Hope some day I will.
Happy new year Watts! And to every one committed to climate TRUTH.
Lows outnumbered highs by a factor of 21 (336/18=21).
If not for possible UHI it could be even higher than 21.
That map of all the cold and snow records really does raise an eyebrow.
I thought this was a great write-up.
This is a great image. It nicely illustrates the effect of the blocking high that lingered over the (ice-free) Hudson Bay and it’s effect on December weather in the US.
I am not a fan of the record highs, record lows mantra. Weather is weather and therefore these highs and lows (in isolation) are not of much importance.
However, it is often overlooked (or at any rate not sufficiently emphasised) that low temperatures and colder years carry more significance than high temperatures and record warm years and therefore there is some justification in the climate realists (the warmists would refer to us as climate deniers) pointing out cold events and rhetorically asking how these fit in with AGW.
As regards record warm years, one would expect as we come out of a mini ice age for each decade to be warmer than the preceding decade such that the warmest decade so far proves nothing. It is simply being consist with the natural process of coming out of a mini ice age but is, also, of course, consistent with AGW. However, since the physics behind CO2 (I am looking at this theoretically in islolation ignoring feedbacks) only permits the temperature to go go up when CO2 levels increase, any cold year (or year when there is no warming) runs contrary to the AGW theory and therefore each and every example of cold periods requires an explanation and one which is consitent with AGW if that theory (I am being rather generous so describing it) is to survive. As soon as the AGW protaginist has to resort to natural variation as explaing the cold, he can no longer deny that natural variation could be the explanation behind the warming. This is pivitol since the entire theory relies upon there being no other conceivable explanation for the 20th century warming other than the increase in CO2 (which increase is caused by man).
It is also import to bear in mind that one could show many thousands of examples which are consitent with a theory but this does not in itself prove the theory right, whereas one only has to prove one event inconsistent with the theory to prove the theory wrong.
That post made me roll on the floor, Pamela. Thanks as always.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=48253
View of the Northeast snow from space.
Hey Frank, just a curious question, can you do a pretty good ‘Eruption’ on the guitar?
Indeed, the USA is an empire stretching from Alaska to Hawaii. 🙂
TFN Johnson says:
December 31, 2010 at 4:44 am
Why no mention that Arctic sea ice cover was clearly the lowest ever recorded thru December?
______________________________________________________
Maybe because the April /May 2010 was the highest sea ice recorded since 2002.!?
The Kid From Bristol says:
December 31, 2010 at 3:19 am
Other cities figured there’s no use beating a Deadhorse.
Badda boom!
Pity the AGW establishment (plus MSM) can’t seem to get the message!
A record high and a record low are both shown at the same location on the same day in the far south of Texas on the Gulf Coast. What’s up with that?
Our official government climate warming research site hasn’t been updated since 2004. They still think that AGW may continue to drive the AO into positive territory.
hmmmmm
Good enough for government work?
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/seminars/000320FO.html
Yes Pamela,
The reversal of the trend in jetstream behaviour and that of the AO removes a central tenet from AGW theory.
In my opinion their proposed effect probably does exist but is insignificant in the face of natural variability.
Natural processes shift the jets latitudinally by 1000 miles or more. AGW maybe a few hundred yards.
Add a new record low for this week. Last night dropped to -21 F easily beating the last record of -7 F. Way to go Concho, Arizona.
I’d think you’d need to average this over the complete year’s seasonal cycle for this to be meaningful.
Even better over an ENSO cycle.
As it stands it’s just a debating point.
chemman says:
January 1, 2011 at 10:41 am
Add a new record low for this week. Last night dropped to -21 F easily beating the last record of -7 F. Way to go Concho, Arizona.
Chonco? that’s in the White River Apache country isn’t it? Even by NE Oregon standards
that’ll neuter yer brass monkey fer sure!…
Would someone please assemble this data for all of last winter, for both north and south hemispheres, and do likewise for this winter?
It would be much easier to show the AGW moonbats how much cooler it’s getting, not warmer, with all this information together.
“Dave Springer says:
January 1, 2011 at 6:35 am
A record high and a record low are both shown at the same location on the same day in the far south of Texas on the Gulf Coast. What’s up with that?”
The records went from December 24 to December 31, so it could have been at a record warmth December 24 and at a record cold December 31. Or am I wrong?
“Galane says:
January 1, 2011 at 6:14 pm
Would someone please assemble this data for all of last winter, for both north and south hemispheres, and do likewise for this winter?”
That is being done continually. See
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
I believe that this makes James Hansen an “undocumented” scientist.