Northeast US blizzard proves global warming, or something

Global warming is so two days ago. It is now ‘climate disruption’.

This is the third consecutive year of the “warmest decade” that weather has killed my tropical plants. This is the earliest date in these three years of the “warmest decade” that the weather has killed my tropical plants. If this global warming keeps up I am going to have to move farther south to escape the killing frosts of said warming.

[snip]

The NAO graph tells the story. The NAO has been deeply negative over a prolonged period, but previously over the last 30 years the dominance has been largely positive. The positive trend of the NAO which provides warming we have been told is compliments of rising CO2 levels, but it is more likely controlled by high solar activity.
Recent reduced solar output has meant much lower levels of EUV have been with us which has resulted in a much smaller outer atmosphere. This correlates with a more negative AO and NAO which produces blocking highs that bend the jet stream, allowing cold arctic air to flow south. Coupled with a very large La Nina that is forced on by a very positive AAO along with the PDO in a cool phase and we see that nearly all the cards are stacked. We just need the AMO to go a bit more negative and it will all be happening.
This is a result of natural ocean oscillations and low solar output, and nothing to do with CO2. Any warmth which drives the precipitation in the arctic region is from the large stationary high over Greenland which is part of the negative oscillations, along with the left over warm waters from the now dead El Nino.

The blizzard is proof-positive of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The concept is simple, modelled by experts from NASA, the Untied Nations, and numerous publically-funded NGOs from around the world. The consensus of accredited climate scientists and philosophers is that the result of mankind’s fossil fuel consumption is crystal clear:
1. Global warming causes evaporation of water molecules into the atmosphere;
2. Evaporated water molecules, when they get cool enough, come back down to earth as precipitation;
3. Lots of evaporation = lots of precipitation;
4. Lots of precipitation in winter = snow and sleet; and
5. Lots of snow and sleet = blizzard.
I simply cannot believe how the Deniers are incapable of linking the simple, proven scientific LAWS to Global Warming, and how they deny the blizzards, snow-storms, early seasons, ocean acidification, teenage pregnancies, declining Polar Bear populations, and extinction of thousands of species that are the clear and cogent results of fossil fuel use.
The Deniers are so scientifically illiterate that they seem to think that these inconvenient blizzards are a steady-state view of the future, whereas every accredited climate model predicts that the snow will melt, and the atmosphere will heat up significantly as soon as July or August next year.
The most significant prediction of the models is the 2012 dedication of the James E. Hansen SuperMax facility for Deniers and recalcitrant fossil-fuel executives.

Global warming clearly caused the northeast blizzard of Dec 26-27, 2010. It was also caused by George W. Bush and Sarah Palin and big Pharma and low capital gains taxes and also by weak gun control laws and Walmart, yeah definitely Walmart, oh yeah and also GM when they were run by Republicans and also the military industrial complex and FoxNews, oh yeah, also the Jews.
This can clearly be seen by the computer simulation I’m going to do someday as soon as I get that grant for $10M from Goddard which I expect Obama will be authorizing any day.

Snowmageddon 2.0. Blizzard Causes Travel Chaos!
Less than a year after record snows buried the nation’s capital, another major winter storm is wreaking havoc across the Northeast. The storm ruined travel plans in the busy post-Christmas travel period by closing airports, delaying trains, and snarling traffic.
Forecasters are calling for as much as 20 inches of snow across the mid-Atlantic to southern New England by Monday afternoon. Snow could pile up at rates of 2-4 inches per hour at the heart of it. Hundreds of flights were canceled from Boston to Washington as the storm pummeled the most densely populated area of the U.S.
This storm came as a bit of a surprise to many as the storm unexpectedly tracked closer to the coast and put the eastern seaboard in the worst of the storm.
For Joan Fredrickson, of Atlanta, this is the worst snow storm she has ever seen. “It’s unbelievable just how fast this snow is piling up!” Fredrickson, in New York for the Christmas holiday, was caught by surprise. Her flight has been canceled and she may not get out of New York until Wednesday, 3 days later than planned. “It’s awful, but this is a once in a lifetime event. I’m trying to make the best of it.”
Gavin Schmidt, climate expert at NASA’s climate unit, was a little skeptical of Ms. Fredrickson’s claim of a “once in a lifetime event.” Citing robust computer model forecasts, snow storms such as the one currently pummeling the East Coast are likely to become much more common in the future as a result of greenhouse warming. “People need to realize that even in a warmer world, snow will still fall. In fact, that snow could come in heavier doses in many areas thanks to the air’s ability to hold more moisture. A warmer climate will mean warmer and wetter, but also snowier conditions for many locales. Storms such as those last winter and this winter are consistent with what the models have predicted as a result of human emissions of greenhouse gases.”
For those that would attribute the storm to a good, old fashioned winter, Dr. Schmidt reminds us that “2010 is likely to be the warmest year ever recorded on the globe. While it’s easy to forget global warming when it looks so wintry outside, we mustn’t forget the devastating heatwave and fires in Russia this past summer or the flooding in Pakistan. Such events will be ever harder to forget as they become the new ‘norm’ in a greenhouse warmed world.”
For Ms. Fredrickson, such predictions leave her un-phased. “I don’t mind the snow. I’m a southern girl. I’m going to relish this while I still can.”
[ryan: okay, this is really good]

Well that’s easy Ryan.
We need to keep 2 things in mind.
1-) A warm planet means more moisture in the atmosphere, not even the deniers deny that.
2-) Warm air rises.
This has been the warmest year of the warmest decade of the warmest century. And as most people know, the warmer the air, the quicker it rises. So what’s happened in the northern hemisphere is this quickly rising warm air leaves a vacuum behind, which is quickly filled by cold air sucked down from the arctic regions. Coupled with the moist air, this causes all the snow we’ve experienced.
In the southers hemisphere, exactly the same thing has happened, but it being summer down there, they’ve gotten lots and lots of rain.
See? totally consistent with our models which showed warmer atmosphere will have more moisture. 🙂
[ryanm: like that “refrigerator door” being left open, as Jeff Masters explained the Arctic see-saw paradox, or something]

If it gets cold, blame on global warming. If it gets hot, blame it on global warming.
Climate science is like quantum physics: the cat is both dead and alive at the time.

Well it should be obvious, the Law of Assymetrical Reversal always applies in cases like this.

Winter climate disruption causing unprecedented widespread chaos.
As climate models have been predicting for years, extreme winter weather now strikes the heart of the northeast.
Furious flatulent waves of wicked white hell have created thousands more climate victims overnight.
IPCC has mandated an immediate stop to all greenhouse gas emissions before this CO2 supercharged winter throws us into the next ice age.
IPCC is working with the Obama administration to create a national state of emergency. Under this state of emergency, all coal and natural gas fired power plants will be shut down immediately. All residential gas supplies will be turned off. All highways and roads closed. Power is to be shut off nationally within 12 hours.
[“Furious flatulent waves of wicked white hell“] definitely top-notch, scientific verbage

The sad thing, the greeners have everyone so revved up over global warming.
Global cooling is far more dangerous. Global warming would be a good thing.

I was alerted to an opinion piece in NYtimes, by Judah Cohen the director of seasonal forecasting at an atmospheric and environmental research firm.
In a nutshell, he sells the “cold is global warming/climatechange/climatedisruption” by saying that:Most forecasts have failed to predict these colder winters, however, because the primary drivers in their models are the oceans, which have been warming even as winters have grown chillier. They have ignored the snow in Siberia. which is responsible for the Jet Stream changes which are responsible for the cold northern winters, because of extra moisture that precipitates into snow at low temperatures.
There is no comments section .
The “ignored cycle” he proposes sounds to me like the recipe for the new ice age : cold is pushed down from the arctic creating vast snow landscapes and the increased albedo lowers the temperatures further. He has been seduced by the anomalies and has forgotten that H2O at 0C crystallizes and stays crystalline below that. It makes no difference if the surface temperature is -4C or -44C, snow stays put and albedo increases over all the area that is snow covered. Even a 30C winter anomaly at the north pole will not melt the ice in winter. Come spring the large cold area will reflect back the sun at the lower latitudes diminishing the real energy that can go into the north pole, which will slowly recover its lost ice, as there is indication it is happening now.
At the same time the oceans have been cooling not heating as he claims.
Since this is starting earlier and ending later he is describing how from a warm world the earth is turning into an ice age world.
Maybe he has found why there are periodic ice ages, i.e. that global warming causes ice ages. It is evident that from a temperature curve that is going up in time to go into an ice age where the temperature is going down in time one passes through a plateau. We are now ten years at least at a plateau. Lets hope it will be a little ice age and not the slide into the long freezing times that the ice core records show.
Moderator: there is no “Continue reading” link , or “number of comments” link to enter the comments section. One has to hit the headline.

I asked Reindeer expert Mr S Claus what his first hand opinion of this blizzard was.
He categorically stated,” He did not want to be caught out in it but that is his business!”
There you have it,” a cold blizzard that is holding up transport in this global region.”
“And what effect do you think a global blizzard would have considering this one has been cold.”
S Claus.” Oh I think a global blizzard would be extremely bad and cold for transport!”
“Well as it happens, our computer predicted this exact problem. By adjusting some inputs and extrapolating the answer we have determined that a global blizzard could occur on the 1st of April.
And we have expert testimony that this would be bad and cold!

Apparently “Winter” has not been peer reviewed and therefore is not to be noticed.

“Note, you may use anonymous sources or experts in the field to come up with testimony.”
Well, if we can we use unconfirmed reports of alleged activities from unnamed sources, it should fit right in with their narriative.

this is a ridiculous post and should be removed.
just because Mr. Watts is away doesn’t give (some?) of you (know you who are) the rights to “post away.”
While it’s nice to see a few more articles then usual, some of these are lacking in many areas, and look kinda foolish.
/just sayin’
[ryanm: you mean me? please expound on your criticisms!]

May I offer (my emphasis):
From the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007:
Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability
Chapter 14: North America
14.3 Assumptions about future trends
14.3.1 Climate
Recent climate model simulations (Ruosteenoja et al., 2003) indicate that by the 2010 to 2039 time slice, year-round temperatures across North America will be outside the range of present-day natural variability, based on 1000 year Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations with either the CGCM2 or HadCM3 climate models. For most combinations of model, scenario, season and region, warming in the 2010 to 2039 time slice will be in the range of 1 to 3ºC. Late in the century, projected annual warming is likely to be 2 to 3°C across the western, southern, and eastern continental edges, but more than 5ºC at high latitudes (Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3.1). The projected warming is greatest in winter at high latitudes and greatest in the summer in the south-west U.S. Warm extremes across North America are projected to become both more frequent and longer (Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3.3).
Are you feeling warmer yet?

The following comment has been thoroughly “pee reviewed.”
Don’t eat the yellow snow!

I think it would be hard to beat George Monbiot’s explanation.
First you need to return to his article of Jan 2009 (during our 1st of the record 3 cold winters in a row), “I have spent the last two evenings skating…the exhilaration of this primal game was shaded with sadness: all of us knew that this time might be our last…The critics [of man-made climate change theory]use every snow flurry or frozen puddle as evidence of the collapse of global warming theory…The thought that I might never skate outdoors again feels like a bereavement. I pray for another cold snap, even though I know it will bring all the nincompoops in Britain out of their holes, yapping about a new ice age…Is there any other subject on which journalists can make such magnificent idiots of themselves and still keep their jobs?”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/09/climatechange-weather?INTCMP=SRCH
Now fast forward to 20 December 2010 (the coldest UK December in 100 yrs and coldest Christmas since records began):
Headline: “That snow outside is what global warming looks like”
“There is now strong evidence to suggest that the unusually cold winters of the last two years in the UK are the result of heating elsewhere. With the help of the severe weather analyst John Mason and the Climate Science Rapid Response Team, I’ve been through as much of the scientific literature as I can lay hands on . Here’s what seems to be happening.” [sounds like Monbiot himself has worked it all out]
“The global temperature maps published by Nasa present a striking picture. Last month’s shows a deep blue splodge over Iceland, Spitsbergen, Scandanavia and the UK, and another over the western US and eastern Pacific. But on either side of these cool blue pools are raging fires of orange, red and maroon” [read again RAGING FIRES!] – moves into discussion of atmospheric circulations and Arctic ice melt.
Then most brilliantly, he asks: “So why wasn’t this predicted by climate scientists?”
Oh dear, did the climate models fail? All the time, we thought global warming was giving us only milder winters.
But: ” Actually it was predicted, and we missed it.” So someone conveniently found that critical prediction lost in a bottom draw somewhere. A pity the UK’s Met Office didn’t hear about it. Otherwise, they might have advised the government to prepare for colder winters.
No doubt, there’s a whole cupboard full of forgotten predictions to deal with any new climate event. Perhaps George should start looking about now for the one that predicted ‘3 very cold winters followed by a series of mild winters again’.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/dec/20/uk-snow-global-warming?INTCMP=SRCH

What is with these folks invoking less Arctic sea ice as accuse of additional snow?
We are months past the Arctic sea ice minimum, and for a couple of months now every year’s record of Arctic sea ice is basically the same as every other year.

rbateman says:
December 26, 2010 at 8:59 pm
There is an added dimension to the Jet Streams forced further towards the equator: It is the reach of the loops which has stretched, not so much that the loops are displaced. For those who have been watching them intently, they have grown ever longer as measured by total latitude spanned.
Hi Robert, Ulric sent me an interesting animation that backs up the one I normally use showing the loop displacement. How long this continues will be good to watch.

Whilst there are a number of novel suggestions for the NH polar jet excursions eg Cohen etc they do not explain the SH PFJ which it seems has brought snow to Tasmania.
http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_sohem_00.gif

I was about to head for the ball game in Philly when I heard it was going to be snowed out. How in thunder can a football game be snowed out? So I checked the news and sure enough there was a major snow storm raging northward across the original colonies.
I called an acquaintance who put me in touch with a person at a major climate center where there are expensive computers and lots of people with letters after their names. This fellow (I. M. Janitor by name) claims his people talk to other people who have it on good authority that the current condition is called ICS. Their models prove that Earth Mother, sometimes called Gaia, has been ravaged of all her carbon that has then been mixed with other chemicals and force fed back to her circulation systems. The professor in the corner office has it on good authority (although he can’t remember that person’s name) that carbon-chemical mixtures will cause major heating of the tubular manifolds, or in common terms irritation. This carbon caused irritation, somewhat like an infection by bacteria about a person’s heart, also called endocarditis, disrupts flows and valves in the straits, such as in and out of the Arctic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico. When Gaia gets endocarditis from infectious carbon dioxide then several northern seas won’t freeze over and they spill their warm waters over and melt the ice holding the tundra down. The tundra pops up and floats as islands and these tip over and send tsunamis crashing about. Major disruption, that.
Well, all the out rushing from the northern areas causes a vacuum there and air and water from the south rush north to fill that. But (and here’s the trick), there isn’t room up there to hold all this stuff and it mashes together on its way north, like a traffic jam on an ice covered freeway, and all the tumbling and rubbing causes it to gush into the air where the hidden cold there turns all those chemical things into snow.
So, carbon mixtures in the tubular manifolds heats Gaia’s guts and disruptions spurt up like mushrooms within her overheated vital organs. That’s known as irritable climate syndromeor ICS and it explains conclusively how warming causes cooling.
So, you got that?

The last month of satellite TLT data shows it is not dropping which had me puzzled. I’m now wondering if this is due to there being so much snow in the NH (and SH?) the heat is being reflected back to space. Satellite SST is also not dropping; the oceans may actually be releasing more heat, setting up for another drop. The tantalizing prospect of all this could be we are in for one helluva temperature crash in the coming months after January and even more snow.
Throw in a SSW and whoa.

I cant believe this trash. They didn’t even let us vent in a comment section.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=2&ref=opinion
Last winter, too, was exceptionally snowy and cold across the Eastern United States and Eurasia, as were seven of the previous nine winters.”
What happened to Occam’s razor? Could it be Judah that winter is cold just because winter is cold”? Judah’s explanation is so complicated that it reads like a conspiracy theory. Now I believe that C02 warms the atmosphere (but not as much as AGW people would have me believe) but I will never accept that C02 warms that atmosphere and that a warmer atmosphere leads to record cold spells.
There is a sense of desparation about the piece. I would have accepted natural variation as an excuse but I guess there is just a little too much natural variation going on at the moment and people like Jodah feel they have to explain it.

rob m says:
December 26, 2010 at 7:58 pm
Judah Cohen explains it all for us. I wasn’t sure at first but I actually think he is serious.
He is serious, his comment: “How can we reconcile this?” shows he has approached the contradiction between AGW and 8 winters out of 10 being cold by embracing the Warmists theories and inventing a lunatic argument to rationalise his viewpoint.
His whole approach can be summed up by an old Australian saying: “if my Uncle had tits he would be my Aunt”
[ryanm: bingo, the word reconcile is a terrible buzzword]

snow on mount wellington tasmania in sydney cold ,it cannot be it,s middle summer here in australia .AlGore please turn up the heat please please.

This Snowmageddon II storm…was a product of the now “colder” Pacific and the lower thicknesses in the means thereby…which resulted in 15 to 20 feet of snow in the California Sierra last week.
This energy trekked across the USA and met some Arctic air and a stubborn month-long Greenland rex block (now breaking down)….and voila a widespread coastal whiteout for the eastern USA….from North Carolina to New England and on into Canada.
With the 50/50 low entrenched off of the Maritimes (until today!) and the negative NAO….this was a perfect set-up.
Obviously, “climatology” is changing….because the Virginia coast would not get a whiteout 20 years ago.
[ryanm: Tyrannosaurus Rex?]
Hopefully the model physics will be adjusted to conform with the *change* in climate that is occurring.
(Not man made for the most part….just natural variability….but a change for *us* nonetheless because we as a species can not seem to think past a few decades…not to mention a 100 years or 10,000 years or 10,000,000 years).
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

Doyle says:
December 26, 2010 at 8:30 pm
” I’m so tired and cold from all this anthropogenically cooled global warming residue”
That’s gold.

What we Denialists fail to understand is that far from being evidence of cold conditions, excess snow and ice is in fact heat, in an extreme and chaotic form.

STOP PRESS – NEW CLIMATE PREDICTION MODEL UNVEILED
Last night, before a hushed crowd of environmental reporters frantically seeking a way to redeem their trashed reputations, Professor Brains-Turnedorf of the Postdam Institute explained how he and his team had finally proved beyond doubt that global warming causes global cooling causes global warming causes . . . .
With the aid of a really cool Power Point demonstration donated by the Goracle, Professor Brains-Turnedorf detailed the basics of a completely new branch of climate study which he called his “Arctic Sea Ice Climate Predictability Model”.
According to the Professor global warming caused most of the Arctic sea-ice to melt, thereby allowing the super-heated water formerly trapped underneath to warm the air above the ocean. This, in turn caused a high-pressure cell to form in the atmosphere above the Arctic Circle, pushing colder air southwards, resulting in the record cold winter currently being experienced in the Northern Hemisphere.
Professor Brains-Turnedorf went on to detail how his Arctic Sea Ice Climate Predictability Model will make weather-forecasting a cinch in the future. He unveiled what he named as the “Three Sacred Sea ice Conditions”, which will predict all future weather patterns with 100% accuracy. These are:
SAME Arctic sea ice extent = same heat = similar winter to now.
LESS Arctic sea ice extent = more heat = even harsher winter.
MORE Arctic sea ice extent = less heat = milder winter.
To demonstrate the simplicity and validity of his model, Professor Brains-Turnedorf pointed that if by some impossibility the amount of Arctic sea ice doubled next year, then the Northern Hemisphere would suffer its hottest winter ever. Conversely, if the sea ice disappears completely then the entire Northern Hemisphere would freeze over.
During question time there was tense moment when a Denier, disguised as an environmental reporter, asked the Professor to explain away 2007, with its even lower sea ice extent and mild winter. After the unbeliever had been summarily evicted the good Professor reassured the faithful by explaining that he had only just finished working out the “Arctic Sea Ice Predictability Model” on his abacus, and hadn’t yet had time to calculate in the necessary fudge factors.
“Not that it matters” concluded the professor. “My work has been pal-reviewed by Hanson and Mann, and all the crowd over at the NOAA. So we have a consensus and the science is settled”
“And it’s even worse than we thought”, he concluded as he was carried triumphant from the dais by the adoring congregation.

Hanson is an A$$. The GISS is a joke. NOAA is redundant if the GISS still exists.
We should practice fiscal responsibility and demand that either NASA or NOAA disolve the missions or combine them to save money!
NASA has the A Train (Polar Orbit science sats) and they ignore the real data from the sensors and, well, you know, tell you what they want you to hear so that the grant moneys keep a rolling.

OK. I’ll try.
The Hottest Year Breeds The Worst Winter this Millennium
In a surprising twist that has left many New Yorkers understandably confused, this year’s global fever has brought another chilling start to winter.
“That is how fevers work,” noted one popular blogger. “First hot, then cold. But we all know that this will get more disruptive and catastrophic. If we do not cure the climate it will always be too hot or too cold, and never just right. No species can survive that kind of unprecedented change.”
The cold and snow was no surprise to experts. “This was always almost known by the leading global climatologists,” said Dr. Richard Nixon, head modeller at the Madoff Climate Data Center, “but there was still a chance that the debate on this was not over. So, to avoid unduly alarming the public with any uncertain predictions, we delayed peer reviewed publication until after it first happened.”
“The untrained public often misses the big picture,” said Nixon, “confusing their experiences and memories with the correct data. Even now it seems even colder than it really is to an average person because of the sudden change, the tipping point, from this year’s relentless heat. Still cold enough for snow, and plenty of it with the moisture boiling up from the rising oceans, but it is a warmer cold.”

Sorry Ryan but Rahmstorf has already beaten you to it. And he’s got a computer model to prove it. And it’s already appeared in MSM. So there!!!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/expect-more-extreme-winters-thanks-to-global-warming-say-scientists-2168418.html

Christmas snow in Atlanta for the first time in over 100 years, Europe in a deep freeze, snow in summer in Australia.. What on Giea is happening? The Watermelon Wire demands answers, so they sent me, investigative reporter Ima Neored out onto the street to find them.
My first interviewee was a Mr. C. Little, executive Director of the SIF Institute for Atmospheric Studies. “It is really simple.” stated Mr Little. “The cow farts and refrigerants have combined with the missing lower troposphere heat signature to rise to the top of the atmosphere and weigh it down.”.
“The end result,” he continued, “is that the atmosphere has dropped almost 1,000 meters closer to earth, and continues to do so at an alarming rate. This has brought conditions much like those seen in the movie ‘The Day After Tomorrow’.”
Very interesting.
Our interviews continued with a man who identified himself as Dr Curly Climategate, from an un-named university in Pennsylvania. His theory wasn’t really coherent, he kept ranting something about making hockey sticks out of tree rings, and hiding the ones that didn’t fit. Ooookay.. He tried e-mailing Larry and Moe for more coherent answers, but to no avail. Apparently they were out scouting deserts for the next climate conference.
About that time a heckler in the gathering crowd suggested that maybe GISS did it when they recently ‘adjusted’ the 1930s data set again. When asked, he shared his theory that by changing the data yet again, since 2010 was now the hottest year ever, we needed a sudden global winter event to bring the atmosphere to equilibrium. GISS started a thermo-temporal wave, plunging the planet into deep winter to bring balance.
What a kook.
We did find a climate skeptic to interview, but we did not find it useful. He kept babbling on about climate cycles, the NAO, ENSO and PDO, and the scientific method, whatever that is.
(Is that scientific method that I keep hearing about some kind of birth control or what? Let’s hope so, every human child born is an environmental catastrophe like Bopal or Chernobyl.)
In the end he insisted on denying that the global warming based global snowmageddon was caused by Soccer Moms in Chevy Tahoes and coal fired power plants.
What an idiot.
Our final interviewee was arguably the best. The gentleman only identified himself as MBP. He spoke in this really slow irritating southern drawl like he was addressing a short bus full of hick kids. In spite of the insanely irritating delivery, he did recite the gospel of Lord Gore with amazing accuracy. When asked if he really was The One, he ran off yelling something about being late for a rubdown. Bye Sir! We love yooooo!
The answer is clear to this reporter. As always, look to the scripture of Lord Gore, the answers are there to be twisted into shape for any occasion. Personally I have had enough of the 15″ of global warming caused rotten snow here in NYC, and I am off to Cancun. What? The airport is closed? Aw crap.
Hey! Maybe there is a global warming protest in town…
This is Ima Neored reporting from the white hot streets of NYC for the Watermelon Wire. Have a green (and red) day.

The Australian non summer.
As I type this 7:58PM Sydney time
Sydney 17C
Melbourne 13C !
Adelaide 18 C
Canberra 13C
Brisbane 22C
Cairns 26C
Perth 33C

The science is indeed settled – what can be more settled and irrefuteable if the predictions and the exceptions support it…?
The current cold spell in northern Europe is interesting. CET for December (up to the 25th) is at -0.9C, and the anomaly is -5.7C. The coldest December on record since 1659 is -0.8C. However, if we accept that global warming raises the level around which there will be natural variability, this December will be more like a -7C anomaly. That’s pretty much off the charts statistically for the CET. And this proves… make your pick!

You guys in the NH won’t have to worry about all that missing heat in the Pacific Ocean any more. 90% of the ocean has now been dumped on Queensland and New South Wales down here in Australia.
By Friday I’ll be able to walk to New Zealand !
AND it is cold ! AND wet, AND still it comes down. Worst floods in 70 years.
What did you guys do with our Summer ??

‘This is what happens when people who don’t understand “the science” get involved in the debate’, a weary Professor Grant-Collector explained to a journalist who asked about the cold winter. ‘Firstly, this winter has not been peer reviewed and the snow measurements are in the hands of irresponsible people with an agenda. Secondly, our model conclusively contradicts its existence. I just despair sometimes at the ignorance of the general public and self-styled experts on this issue.’
Activist Lulu Green points out: ‘All this cold weather is a bonanza for Big Oil, as the demand for, and price of, fossil fuels for heating rise dramatically. You don’t have to be a genius to join the dots …’.
Homeowner Gomer Gormless has another take: ‘I’m sure glad that the globe is warming. Just think – otherwise it would be even colder than it is now!’
The final word goes to 10 year old Starflower Windrush, snuggled up in front of the log fire with 20 others at her parents’ commune in chilly Minnesota. ‘Please Gaia, don’t destroy the Earth and kill all the cute squirrels.’
As usual, the wisdom of a child trumps all the silly arguing of the apathetic and greedy adults who run the world today.

peteremcc says: December 26, 2010 at 9:25 pm

Here’s an article printed here in New Zealand about the UK’s cold winter being because of global warming:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10696652

[ryanm: this research paper is worse than you can possibly imagine. nightmare in fact…]
Keep a tab on this paper for next year, prime evidence of the blatant disregard of commonsense and true science in the face of herd mentality. Prime evidence for the reform needed.

Dateline: June 2020.
“As we continue to fight the scurge of AGW. It is expected that the high level of evaporation from the the seas, causing the the heavy snow worldwide, will subside by 2030 as we reduce the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. With funds raised from the ‘carbon taxes’ we will be providing subsidies for sheep farming in order to increase the wool supply to the clothing industry, food ration coupons until we can increase farming output again and our temporary resettlement of northern states citizens into the south. We will win this fight against AGW, even if it kills us.”

tobyglyn says:
December 27, 2010 at 1:01 am
The Australian non summer.
As I type this 7:58PM Sydney time
Melbourne 13C !
========================================================
English barbecue-summer weather at the MCG? Right up our street 😉

The Sky Is Falling. Fact.
By Georgey Moonbat, Climate Alarmespondent, The Guardian
Unnamed climate scientists are saying that whilst we cannot specifically attribute the cause of the Northeast US blizzard specifically to AGW, we do know that Death Blizzards (as scientists have termed them) will only increase in frequency as capitalists pump more noxious CO2 (not sweet CO2 like Mother Nature provides) into the atmosphere. The precise reason we have record low temperatures right now in the northern hemisphere (where lots of people live) is because in other areas (where no one lives but we have sensors within a 1200km radius to measure the heat) it is boiling like Hell. This heat sends moisture around the world in the form of snow. And if one substitutes the word “sky” for “snow,” one can now genuinely say that the sky is indeed falling. And that’s a fact.
The Scientific Community™ have explained this phenomenon as being based on the same set of principles as how whilst we can’t blame any single Poly Bear death on AGW, we know that they are dying in their millions due to the overall cumulative effect of AGW. Thus this is why the Poly Bear population is increasing – because the poor bundles of fluffy love have gone into breeding overdrive to offset the increased death rate. This is entirely consistent with climate supermodels (after adjustments to make them predict postdict the currently known figures).
“It is difficult to see how one can seriously deny the climate now,” the Scientific Community collectively said yesterday. “Apart from a couple of Big Oil-funded fringe lunatics in need of psychiatric treatment, everyone now accepts that Climate really does exist, and cannot be denied.”
So there you have it. And yet we know that in the face of all this incontrovertible evidence, there will be those who continue to deny Climate. Meanwhile conservative estimates have it that the world has warmed between 0.9 and 2.6°C in just the blink of an eye. That’s approximately 65397 x10-to-the-power-of-24 times the heat produced by my toaster this morning, which is a reasonable analogy because if we go on like this it will be Mankind that is toast. Time to wake up and smell the toast.
© 2010 G Moonbat

Wait a minute…wait a minute….we’re all wrong here. It’s cold = it’s just WEATHER. Falls outside the realm of AGW. No need to discuss it any further. Now in April when it’s a tad warmer than “usual”-that we can talk about! That will be Globull Warming!

I know that people don’t like to give politicians credit for anything these days, but you have to admit that they really figured out a way to control the climate. You all may think of them as just a visual blight on the countryside, but not so. Those wind turbines certainly did the trick and brought back those old-fashioned winters we’ve all been missing so badly.
I think, based on current events, that they may have overdone it but, it’s early days for this technology and we can surely fine tune it by having even more of them not rotating and taking too much carbon out of the atmosphere. I’m certain that within five years, “scientists” will have mastered the technology and we will have our Arctic ice back, and the climate will be perfect again.
Thank you great leaders and wind turbine manufacturers for surely saving our climate and our planet, our polar bears and our grandchildren, etc. ……

“A” Train Riders Stranded in Seven-Hour Ordeal
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local-beat/A-Train-Riders-Stranded-in-Seven-Hour-Ordeal–112498574.html
In an amazing story out of NYC we read about the horror of 400 or so people who nearly froze to death when the temperatures when up so high that the subway train engines could not work. MTA spokesman Jeremy Soffin said, “unfortunately, we could not use the computer model by NASA that predicted this even because it will be unavailable until early next week.” Anonymous NASA spokes man James Hansen told this reporter that Anthropomorphic Heat Related Engine Failure (AHREF) was a well known principle in the climatology community and he was surprised that the NYC subway authorities needed to actually see the prediction in advance of the event; especially since official NASA predictions are normally made after an event.

Judah Cohen’s op-ed piece is complete garbage (I know the link appears several times in these comments, but here it is again).
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&ref=opinion
It is the best example I think I have ever read, illustrating how any weather phenomena can be linked to global warming, no matter how flawed the logic is. First Dr. Cohen states (emphasis added):
“And though it is well documented that THE EARTH’S FROZEN AREAS ARE IN RETREAT, evidence of thinning Arctic sea ice DOES NOT EXPLAIN why the world’s major cities are having colder winters.” Then in the very next paragraph, he contradicts himself:
“But one phenomenon that may be significant is the way in which seasonal snow cover HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE even as other frozen areas are shrinking.”
So, Arctic sea ice is shrinking (since 1979), but NH snow cover extent is increasing and Antarctic sea ice is increasing…that doesn’t sound like earth’s frozen areas are in retreat. But we can’t say that 1/3 frozen areas on Earth are shrinking, can we!?
Then, Dr. Cohen amazingly makes the link between changes in Arctic sea ice and the cold we are experiencing now, after saying it “DOES NOT EXPLAIN” it! Apparently the lack of sea ice in the Fall leads to more snowfall in Siberia, and this influences the jet stream making it less zonal and more meridional. Wow, every winter I have experienced in my 31 years have had periods of one type of flow or the other! I guess before I was born, according to Dr. Cohen, winters were much less cold and snowy, since there were no deep mid/upper level troughs to bring down cold arctic air!
And now that we’re talking about less Arctic sea ice causing more snow in Siberia, let us analyze and compare both the sea ice extent and snow cover from Sept./Oct./Nov. of 2009 and 2010. Well, it appears that there was MUCH less ice in the Barents and Kara Seas during the fall of 2009, than in 2010. According to Dr. Cohen, that means there should have been more snow in Siberia. However, is that the case? Look at some NOAA National Ice Center Interactive Snow Map (IMS) images. Oct 15 2009 vs. Oct 15 2010.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2009/ims2009288.gif
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2010/ims2010288.gif
Of course these are just snap shots, but you see the trend. Less ice in the Kara and Barents Seas in 2009, less snow, not more. Pick any other date, especially later in the Fall. You sea comparable ice extent, but the snow cover is much different. Where’s the correlation?
Okay, let’s look at 2007 also. We had record sea ice minimums:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2007.html#17October
How’s the Fall snow cover doing in Siberia?
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2007&ui_month=10&ui_set=2
Huh, the anomalies suggest that there is below average snow in Asia/Siberia. Anthony, what’s up with that!?
Dr. Cohen also states:
“however, because the primary drivers in their models are the oceans, WHICH HAVE BEEN WARMING even as winters have grown chillier.”
REALLY? Warmer? http://www.jisao.washington.edu/datasets/global_sstanomts/
All of this data was found spending about 20 minutes researching. Obviously much more analysis would need to be done, over much longer time periods. But at least I am not just typing opinion without any references or facts to support my claims. To the average greenie, these articles must sound so convincing. Unfortunately none of them are intelligent enough to think for themselves and look at the data. The warmists continue to have it both ways – and somehow all WEATHER, stormy, calm, flood, drought, hurricanes, snow storms, heat waves, cold spells, are all due to CLIMATE CHANGE. The weather/climate distinction has completely evaporated.

As noted above, the New York Times already had an op-ed on Christmas Day, by Judah Cohen, explaining how the cold in Northern Hemisphere is being caused by global warming.
But what did the AR4 predict would be the consequences of global warming for the areas now beset by serial harsh winters?
North America: “For most combinations of model, scenario, season and region, warming in the 2010 to 2039 time slice will be in the range of 1 to 3ºC…The projected warming is greatest in winter at high latitudes and greatest in the summer in the south-west U.S. Warm extremes across North America are projected to become both more frequent and longer (Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3.3). ” (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch14s14-3.html#14-3-1)
Europe: “The warming is greatest over eastern Europe in winter (December to February: DJF) and over western and southern Europe in summer (June to August: JJA) (Giorgi et al., 2004). Results using two regional climate models under the PRUDENCE project (Christensen and Christensen, 2007) showed a larger warming in winter than in summer in northern Europe and the reverse in southern and central Europe.” (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch12s12-3.html#12-3-1)
So far so good?

Leif Svalgaard says: December 27, 2010 at 5:09 am
Geoff Sharp says:
December 26, 2010 at 11:56 pm
Current EUV figures are not far above the minimum figures that were recorded 2 years ago at cycle min and they are still dropping since February this year.
The height of the Thermosphere is at the lowest measured which supports the instrumental data. There is no doubting that EUV levels are very low right now.
The height of the thermosphere is the combined effect of EUV and geomagnetic activity and the latter was low. EUV levels ‘right now’ are on par with what they were in 2007 and larger than at the previous minimum. The error in EUV level is between 6 and 20%.
Leif are you contradicting Geoff’s comment, saying we can’t tell because of error magnitude, or what? I find your message often inscrutable, in what you assert as fact. This AGU paper from Aug/2010 seems to support his position.
http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2010/2010-28.shtml

Joe Bftzlk says:
December 27, 2010 at 6:28 am
I don’t understand the sneering at the agw crew because the local weather is cold. Isn’t everyone agreed that the planet as a whole was warmer in 2010 than it has been since whenever?
There may be other reasons for sneering at them, but a blizzard in the Northeast US isn’t one of them.
Yes, it was warmer in 2010 than whenever, we’re all agreed on that. It was also cooler than another time whenever. And indeed for the last 10 or 11 years there has been no warming (inexplicable by the AGW hypothesis, which is a travesty).
But the reason we are – to use your word – “sneering” at the alarmist crowd – is because said crowd is now claiming that heavy snow blizzards and 3 cold winters in a row are supportive of the AGW hypothesis, when only a few years earlier the very same people were saying that the mild winters were evidence of their hypothesis. It is pretty obvious now that whatever the state of winters to come, anywhere in the world – mild or cold – they will claim it as evidence of their hypothesis. And this just seems like insanity to the rest of us.
Now do you get it, or should I draw you a picture?

Judah Cohen’s discussion gives up the ghost. The micro-climate phenomena are the drives of the macro-climate statistics. Consider it as a baseball game. In each game, a player starts with a blank sheet of statistics. Now, you can look at the player’s previous game statistics, and try to deduce a trend for how this player is hitting. What’s that? He has hit only 13% of the time in April? Well, this player is going to be awful today! Of course, you could be completely wrong, and this player could hit 3 home runs this day. It’s just a fluke you say, and you would initially be right, but in the month of May, this player hits .500. All of a sudden, it’s time to say he is shaping up to have a really great June. Of course, there is an opposite way to look at it, which has helped me in choosing players for my fantasy baseball team (yes, I play it). Usually a guy who has a bad month follows it up with a month that returns him, more or less, to his long term normal for batting average. Same goes for WHIP. Earth has an equilibrium, and it is only out of phase with the equilibrium because water changes states based on incoming energy. Expanding areas where water is solidified is not an indication of warming, just as a bad April is not a predictor of a bad May. It is an indication that some people, in their mission to explain the depth of the seas to the cores of the stars, have been overlooking some of the more detailed nuances of the Earth.

As an average person, I find it hard to reconcile my stupidity increasing as an integral of CO2. Does this indicate that lowering CO2 will make me smarter, or that it will allow a smaller group of us to battle a half-wit? I think I have even read that the stupidity of an average person doesn’t even correlate with CO2 at all, but with rising postal rates. As AGW seems to be the answer to many conundrums, perhaps it can even be shown to be the cause of falling intelligence in our schools. Maybe the governments plan to raise the cost of soda pop can have a positive effect, by reducing the individuals direct exposure to CO2. 🙂

@ Joe Prins and Joanna: Two gems in a row. I especially liked Joanna’s inclusion of the appeal to the wisdom of little children. And Prins’s take on the cluelessness of journalists: ‘Reports from the University of Anglia in Scotland’….Priceless!

This just in:
The Eastern seaboard found itself buried under the holy fire rained down by DPRK and Iran known as global warming. The global warming, or ‘holy fire’, was smuggled across the Eastern US border today disguised as snow, which caught most weather aficionados off guard. Unfortunately, capitalist imperialist pig dog greed has snarled air traffic from London to Boston, and the promised holy fire of global warming is now in the United States, showing clearly what a hot and bleak future of holy fire the world will now endure. Clearly, it is time to submit and find other ways to maintain our society and leave the making of global warming to the tolerant peoples of Iran and North Korea, who know how to use holy fire.

Lets see if we can make this simpler for them.
Given that the IPCC is NOT projecting adverse surface temperature scenarios until about 2060 (unless you wish to discard IPCC findings in favor of MSM muse), all news media articles claiming a current correlation between weather events and AGW impacts should be dismissed as fiction.
Scenarios: 2010-2030. Part I
by Judith Curry
http://judithcurry.com/2010/12/23/scenarios-2010-2030-part-i/
“The IPCC AR4 projected a near term global average temperature increase of 0.2C per decade.  Further, the AR4 showed  an insensitivity of global average surface temperature to emission scenarios prior to about 2060.”
[ryanm: damn John, you are simply making too much sense here — and giving away the entire game. Tho citing “moderate” Judith Curry gets you a bonus point for something (?)]

The posts in this forum are truly an inspiration. Our spirits will not submit to the tyranny of climate PC. Maybe this could become a regular feature.
[ryanm: the sad thing is that what our commenters have come up with in jest may actually be printed in the NY Times as factual]

Kaboom
hace unos años atras los alarmistas decian que el calentamiento global iba a provocar inviernos calurosos
por que ahora dicen que el calentamiento global provoca mas frio ?????
a quien le creo ????
hasta cuando dejaran de decir payasadas ????

Here’s what I have seen in nearly 60 years of life, making my living for nearly 30 of those in the Air:
One, nature is cyclical- in all aspects Atmospheric, Oceanic, Solar,
Two, as much as we admire our models and computers that make them.
they can be and usually are, wrong. Climate modeling is not the same as modeling
wing joints on a Boeing 787 or engines on an Airbus 380. (well maybe).
Three, to ignore history and/or modify it (like the denial of the MWP)
is to repeat it as what appears to be happening now. I value what I hear
from old Fishermen, Ranchers and Farmers, when some oldboy says:”I think we are
going back to the way the weather was in the late 40’s early 50’s” pay attention to
those people. You have more insight on they way things are from the seat on a John Deere, or the Wheelhouse of a Crabber running the Umqua bar….

[ryanm: the sad thing is that what our commenters have come up with in jest may actually be printed in the NY Times as factual]
LOL! Oh, the joy.
On reflection, that is not a bad thing. That could give us a bit of control.

[ryanm: damn John, you are simply making too much sense here — and giving away the entire game. Tho citing “moderate” Judith Curry gets you a bonus point for something (?)]
LOL, if you want to get rid of rats you may as well use rat poison. I can’t tell you the number of times I’ve posted comments on news stories only to get 20 replies that “if the IPCC says its so it must be true”.
I also figured quoting Judith was the easiest way to diffuse any question about the source. If they want to dispute this, let them banter with Judith.
It does bring up a very interesting point, all articles claiming a current correlation between weather events and AGW impacts should be dismissed as fiction if the IPCC AR4 is the accurate. Or, is it possible the Warmists and Skeptics agree on something : ) ?
[ryanm: yep, apparently the 2080-2100 time-splices have been moved up to the present day. whew, that was fast. If only more than 3-8C of warming had taken place since 1998 like they said it would…]

shoot — s/b if IPCC AR4 is the source.

Leif Svalgaard says:
December 27, 2010 at 8:49 am
The total energy we receive from the EUV in the 26-34 nm band quoted is 0.0001 Watt/square meter.

Its not about energy, I covered this the other day. EUV is the main player in the density and height of the Thermosphere, the solar wind and geomagnetic field are also important but perhaps play a modulating role while EUV sets the baseline. The two are similar in output but not hard linked. CO2 is also a smaller player but I am not sure if there is much fluctuation going on there. Perhaps someone else could advise?
The Thermosphere link to the NAO and AO via pressure changes is the area of interest. Ulric and I are currently looking to see if there is a link between arctic pressure and the solar wind.

Where are the measurements for CO2 in the Thermosphere?
CO2 is heavier than air, how does it get up there? It is one and a half times heavier than air: “Because CO2 is heavier than air, it doesn’t readily rise into the atmosphere and, instead, tends to pool in low areas.”
http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volccanowatch/2005/05_06_02.html
Who first began promoting the SuperMoleculeCO2 that can defy gravity and air pressure?
AGWScience says this SuperMoleculeCO2 has extraordinary powers to stay up in the air for hundreds and even thousands of years, accumulating in the atmosphere. Is this SMCO2 a genetic mutation randomly generated in evolution, or what..? No longer of any use to plants who require it to be available at ground level because they take it in as food from the underside of their leaves, so what ecological niche does it exploit?
Heard on the grapevine that there are a couple of forests where the plants are organising a protest to save their bog standard CO2 food source against the continuing production of this genetically modified sterile SMCO2 by some global industry giants such as Modinsanto. Rally to their cause, spread the word to your gardens.

Tallbloke is on to something….as is Geoff Sharp…..as is Robert Bateman. Three of the smartest guys on here.
It’s not completely figured out right now….but they are on to something.
The question is: “Will the ‘experts’ actually give them a good listen?”
As long as they (the “experts”) have closed their minds…they most definitely won’t.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

Leif Svalgaard says:
December 27, 2010 at 8:27 pm
The thermosphere having a mass of 1/1000,000 of the troposphere exerts negligible pressure [and pressure changes].
The Thermosphere doesn’t need to expert pressure, but changes in its density seem to correlate with pressure cell changes in the Troposphere. There wont be just one factor to look for, just as we see in the temperature record. Instead of pushing your non scientific one sided views, sit back and relax and allow this solar cycle to tease out some clues.