Last year the Northern Hemispheric snowcover was the second highest in the NOAA snow history back to the mid 1960s. It trailed only the legendary 1977/78 winter. It fell just ahead of 2007/08, pushing it to third place. The winter of 2002/03 dropped to fourth place and the bitter winter of 1978/79 fifth.
All through last winter the snowfall was above normal from the end of the first week of December through the third week of March.
The pattern will continue cold across the western parts of Canada, much of United States and across Eurasia. A strong blocking high pressure will push back from the North Atlantic to the Davis Straits. Snow will be heavy along the edges of the cold air and near the unfrozen Great Lakes where many feet will accumulate. More bitter arctic air – perhaps coldest since 1894 is forecast for the UK.
Looks like a White Christmas in many areas much like last year.
See PDF here. White Christmas forecast coming.
Will this be the year the ice sheets start their march?
😯
<:-(
😉
Very good info. Maybe we could compare the northern and the southern hemisphere. Afterall, global means….not to leave any unturned stone.
I do recall some record of snow on the ground on all lower 48 states (US) last year. Also, the southern hemisphere suffered some spectacular winter conditions. Not to confuse weather with climate, however; when coastal marine gradually cools/warms the climate is still coastal marine with changes in average temps.
Ahaaa!!! I just realised why Hansens November anomaly is so far off the other three data sets.
He has a thermometre smack bang in the middle of that warm anomaly between Canada and Greenland as shown on the GFS ensemble.
He then extrapolates that to the rest of the Arctic sub-Arctic regions. Brilliant
Having just gotten a foot of snow in six hours and a forecast for rain and snow mixed over the next week – color me decidedly “un-merry.”
Sort of related (I think); this time last year, the Denmark Strait looked like it was going to freeze over completely, but it didn’t.
It might make it this winter – although if I feel good about this, I’m not sure why.
http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/9832/arcticseaicesome004.png
Googled this too:
According to The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300 – 1850 by Brian M. Fagan:
“Between 1680 and 1730, the coldest cycle of the Little Ice Age, temperatures plummeted, the growing season in England was about five weeks shorter than it was during the 20th Century’s warmest decades.”
“Conditions around Iceland were exceptionally severe. Sea ice often blocked the Denmark Strait throughout the summer. In 1695, ice surrounded the entire coast of Iceland for most of the year, halting all ship traffic.
What is this snow stuff that you are all talking about? Just played 18 holes today in shorts and a short sleeve shirt at 75 degrees!
Believe me, I know – having suffered through the 1977/1978 blizzards in upstate New York and New England.
TVNZ’s main news tonight (Sunday, New Zealand time) had three interesting articles on it. The first was the news that the Scottish Minister for Transport resigned after admitting that the Govt. hadn’t done enough to prepare for the calamity of too much Globull Warming causing mayhem. The minister was quoted as saying that the cold weather was unpredicted! Teach him for relying on British Met forecasts?
The second item was on the bitterly cold weather hitting 28 states of the U.S. right now. One person complained of being able to handle a foot of snow, but having to dig your way out of your home was just too much. See, humans can adapt!
The 3rd item was courtesy of the BBC regarding the outcomes of Cancun. Veteran announcer Peter Williams had as a backdrop an ocean view filled with as many tall iconic buildings etc such as the Eiffel Tower, sticking out from the water to ram home the consequences. If the BBC were meant to be balancing their coverage of this topic then this must be classed as a blast from the past, just like the current NH weather!
Peter Williams, consumate professional that he is, kept a straight face throughout. The casual observer eating their evening meal surely can’t help but see the dichotomy of the supposed threat of global warming will mean to us, while so much of the northern hemisphere is being hammered by the opposite of what the CAGW crowd have continually predicted.
Lots of early snow in our mountains this year too.
On The Great Divide Trail
This is great. I think it very important to the economy of the southern states for us northerners to have a normal winter every now and again. Keeps all of my gray haired contemporaries spending their dollars down there.
You wouldn’t believe what it’s like on CO slopes this year…
Mark
“By the year 2012, snow will only be found in museums.” The Weather Clown
Dear Dr. D’Aleo,
the labelling of your first figure is slightly off, it is not “inches” for the vertical axis, but is is millions of square kilometers.
Werner Weber says: “Dear Dr. D’Aleo, the labelling of your first figure is slightly off, it is not “inches” for the vertical axis, but is is millions of square kilometers.”
The chart is correct within climatological accuracy standards.
I wonder if AlGore and his mates are skiers If thay are I bet thay wear a balaciava
I could not help but notice that of the 12 years with highest snow cover, 2 were in the ’60’s, 4 in the ’70’s, 3 in the ’80’s and 3 in the 2000’s. None in the ’90s!! Could this be a metric for warming in this region?
It’s been mentioned before on this blog, but it was in 1978 that the Leonard Nimoy TV ‘In Search Of’ series produced ‘The Coming Ice Age” featuring amongst others the redoubtable Stephen Schneider (as himself).
Australia also has been experiencing ‘interesting’ weather which, to this old coot with just enough working synapses left to remember, is reminiscent of the 70s.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=maxanom&period=3month&area=nat
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=anomaly&period=3month&area=nat
(The temperature maps refer to 1971-2000 average while, for some obscure reason, the rainfall maps refer to 1961-1990 average).
Will the global temperature c. 1974 – c. 1984 mystery period ever be solved?
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/the-perplexing-temperature-data-published-1974-84-and-recent-temperature-data-180.php
Weather is not climate….everyone knows that but no one can help but be influenced by it. Weather like this really helps in keeping the public opinion somewhat sane.
Here in Australia the south east of the continent is having one of the wettest years on record. Subsequently our daytime temperatures are down. In Canberra last year we had 21 days above 30C and two of almost 40C in November and December to date. We have yet to have a day over 29C this year. Pretty much like the early 1970s. Forty year cycle anyone?
>>Will this be the year the ice sheets start their march?
And the glaciers too. The snow remained in Scotland this spring/summer, through to June, which is the first time this has happened for a long time.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10238296
It would only take a few winters where the snow remained all year, for small glaciers to start in Scotland. And if they can start there, they can start/extend elsewhere in the north.
I’m with Andrew on this one; I’ve been in the outback for weeks & it’s still quite mild (and wet too – matter of fact i’ve been flooded out)
Here on the east coast it’s summer… and i’m still wearing jeans & long sleeves most days…. Sitting here in shorts & T-shirt at the present, thinking of rugging up a bit :s
There once was a Professor Jones
who was known for his too-frequent moans
that the snow and the ice
meant the temperatures rise,
feeling it to the core in his bones.
[very good! ~jove, mod]
Sub-surface water in the central and eastern Pacific has remained cooler than usual during November, says BoM, with central areas more than 4°C cooler than usual.
Back to back La Nina may be more common during a cool PDO, which would produce more winter snow in the US?
Heard on the news that in Minnesota some festival was cancelled due to the snow; first time in 19 years. Weather really doesn’t cooperate with climate, does it?
There once was a juggler called Mann
juggling data in front of his fan;
then performed the great trick:
hitting them with his stick,
sent them safe into his frying-pan.
It seems it was a first in a long time. If it happens again next June what will the Warmists say. “It’s caused by global warming.” Yaaaaaaan!
Not a thing of the past then?
Snow glorious snow:
http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2010/12/12/weather-service-warns-state-midwest-blizzard/
The Gates of Hell, inspired by another blogger.
I have seen the great alarmists,
I have heard them scream and yell.
I have listened to their prophets,
I have watched their “show and tell”.
I endured the mainstream media
hit and hit the warning bell
so the greed could be what feed ya!
I have seen the Gates of Hell.
I have read the temperature readings,
I have seen them been adjusted.
I have heard the liars’ pleadings,
and they have still not been busted.
I have seen the truthful waver
in the fight where science fell
and the path for mankind’s saviour
straight into the Gates of Hell.
I have seen the truth been covered,
I have seen the hope lie dead,
and the truth may be uncovered
only when a blogg is read.
I know what they’re going after:
evil, in which they excel.
In the end, both truth and laughter
tear down all the Gates of Hell.
This thread didn’t look too stale, but perhaps it’s old enough (by blog standards) to mention something a bit off topic. I live in northern Arkansas. They’re calling for a low of 9 degrees F tonight (Dec. 12). -4 wind chill (which is the number my wife likes to take). It’s currently spitting snow and 20 degrees F (Dec. 12). Single digit temps 9 days BEFORE winter officially starts. And it’s been cold here besides. The implications of this make me shiver. No, really. Single digit temps are not common here in the worst of winter, let alone 13 days before Christmas.
Looking at those charts, I can’t help but remember something I read somewhere many years ago, about winter weather and a relationship between temperature and snow which is not quite what common sense says it should be. The reasoning went something like this: the colder an air mass is, the less moisture it can carry. The less moisture there is in the air, the less snow it can produce. Very cold air has so little moisture that it produces very little snow. However, air that is warmer but still below freezing can carry more moisture, and produce more snow. This means that on the average, a winter that is relatively warm but still below freezing will produce more snow cover than a winter that is very cold. So, in a devious way, a more snowy winter might indicate climatic warming.
Is there any validity to this?
I’ve read that this past November was by far the warmest in the recorded temperature record on a global average basis. Has something to do with lack of ice west of Greenland and in much of Hudson’s Bay. Temperatures were very warm in mid November, which matches my recollection, although they cooled off during the last week of November. I read that parts of Greenland are still getting rain, not snow, this week. Any truth to this evidence of warm temps in the arctic regions?
You can almost hear it now…
“These are extreme weather events, and extreme weather events are one result we expect to see from global warming. Therefore, while these results do not match predictions of reduced snow cover, the extreme nature of these results are not inconsistent and actually reinforce global warming ideas.”
Interestingly enough, the start to the snow season along the Colorado Front Range has been one of the LEAST snowiest ever. I am a snow spotter for the NWS & I have recorded only 1.2″ so far. At my spotter location, I would normally be up above 40″ by this date. The 1.2″ has come it just little dustings here & there – not one real storm yet. This is a local anomaly though. The adjacent mountains to the west are doing great (snowpack is 126% of normal as of this morning) & just to the north in Wyoming there has been plenty of snow.
By analog, comparing to 77-78 at the top of the article, Denver was also very dry at the start of that snow season, with most the snow falling in Mar-May of 78.
Watching the various runs of the GFS, I would say our odds of a white Christmas aren’t looking too good with the pattern in place continuing.
In Wallowa County, this degree of snow cover over an extended period of weeks this early in the snow season is unusual at best and may set more records than it already has. It is reminiscent of the 1877 Oregon Trail blizzards my great-grandfather encountered on his way to his original destination, the Willamette Valley. He decided to stay through the winter here in Wallowa County as the blizzards had closed the passes through the Blues before December. By Spring he then decided to stay permanently and is listed as one of the last pioneers to settle the valley. His name is on the concrete commemorative arch at the County Courthouse in Enterprise. James H. Haun.
Just announced that the inflatable roof of the Metrodome in Minnesota where the Vikings play has collapsed from snow load.
Brian H says:
December 11, 2010 at 9:07 pm
‘Will this be the year the ice sheets start their march?’
Well, as an old pagan, at this time of year I shall pray fervently to Sol Invictus that it is not. We do not need even a little Ice Age.
Parallels with 1978: Heavy snow. Early cold on-set. Bitterly cold temps. The only thing missing is talk of the “coming ice-age” that was so prevalent back then. That should start any day now. /sarc
The key effect of more snow is an increased albedo. It will not warm as much after the snow stops and the next blast of cold air will be even colder as a result.
If this continues it will be a very cold winter.
Gary says:
December 12, 2010 at 5:15 am
“I live in northern Arkansas. They’re calling for a low of 9 degrees F tonight (Dec. 12).”
I monitor St. Louis closely because I experience such joy in no longer being in its winter weather. The bottom is dropping out there ten days early this year. Such an early crash in temperature is very unusual.
>>Andrew
>Here in Australia the south east of the continent is having one of the
>>wettest years on record.
But we were told that the great Australian drought was a sure sign of Global Warming. You don’t mean that they were telling us porkies. do you? … 😉
.
I am utterly SHOCKED that the 1976-77 season isn’t on that top ten list.
I am even MORE shocked that the 1978-79 season isn’t.
Both those years (as was 1977-78) saw the Alberta Clipper in full force.
All I have to say is that if we in Chicago have to go back to those kinds of winters to to not have global warming, SCREW the alarmists and give me AGW. It is NICE to not have white-outs and blizzards. And it is NICE to be able to swim in the summertime. Those winters were beyond brutal.
Funny, I live just outside Detroit and we are presently getting our first snowfall of the season. 2 – 4″. My latest client work has been in Chicago. Basically the same story there … Not that I am skeptical, but the map does show Michigan covered in snow which, until today, was not the case. I have empirical evidence to prove it!
“Just announced that the inflatable roof of the Metrodome in Minnesota where the Vikings play has collapsed from snow load.”
I’ll have to sub Kitna for Manning or forfeit.
Surely the UN can establish some better fantasy football rules for this eventuality.
Since this roof collapse is consistent with “the models”, I should collect compensation for the possible collapse of my Fantasy Football playoff hopes. The winner this year should have to pay me, and any other affected team, a 25% mitigation fee.
Unless I am the eventual winner.
I want my globull warming!
When will AGW 2.0 be out–I’ll take a beta release. The copy I have is defective.
All our thermometers are going where no thermometer has been before (or at least not lately). I wish I knew where to find tabular data for this area this year, and for the year I moved here (1989-1990)(Omaha). I think is colder now than it was then and then was the coldest I’d been since the last time I was near the Arctic Circle in the Atlantic (or even since I was last in Palmdale in the winter).
But I am 20 years older–maybe that makes the difference.
Just flew back from the Big Island to San Jose yesterday and no I did not offset my carbon emissions. On Saturday, the island was hit by a major storm bringing the rare and exciting white stuff to the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. At a more habitable elevation it rained and rained hard the entire day. Lots of small scale flooding as a consequence. So if you are going to the Big Island for Christmas, you can take your skis along, there is plenty of snow there on top. Looking at the jetstream all that “pineapple express” weather will visit BC next then eventually find its way to the midwest in time for another pre-Christmas snowfall. Cheers!
Is the cooling of the planet just the tip of the forthcomming iceberg?
It would be very interesting to have someone put up the total rainfall/moisture for the same regions as covered by the snowfall chart. 4 inches of light fluffy snow does not represent the same water content (or energy to tranport it there) as 4 inches of heavy wet snow, or 4 inches of rain. If the acceleration of the hydrological cycle hypothesis is correct in relation to the 40% increase in CO2, it would be the total annual moisture falling that should increase. Snowfall amounts alone do not indicate anything specific related to AGW, as there could be disruptions in global circulation patterns that would cause more or less snow to fall in any given year. In general though, during the winter months (at least during these early years of AGW) snow will still fall and we may get more of it if more moisture is being evaporated from the oceans due to AGW and the accleration of hyrdological cycle. While increased snowfall is counter-intuitive, it related to an acceleration of the hydrological cycle.
Fit_Nick says:
December 12, 2010 at 10:18 am
Is the cooling of the planet just the tip of the forthcomming iceberg?
____
Except for the fact that the planet isn’t cooling.
“Except for the fact that the planet isn’t cooling.”
Is that before or after all the “adjustments” and “corrections”?
Does it involve the use of thermometers, or is it all “computer models”?
Speaking of “Sol”–when I was a kid I picked up the notion that “11” was an important number.
Do the years 1956 (the year I graduated from high school and spent the winter (56-57 in Great Lakes , Illinois and near froze my butt off, and spent some time in the hospital with cold-related respiratory diseases), 1967-68, 1978 (mentioned here), 1989 (also mentioned here), 2000, and 2010 have any connecting notion?
R. Gates says:
December 12, 2010 at 12:01 pm
“Except for the fact that the planet isn’t cooling.”
Obviously a wittism must now include actual data to backup their related humour.
Or maybe some people just don’t have a sense of humour?
wolfwalker says:
So, in a devious way, a more snowy winter might indicate climatic warming.
Is there any validity to this?
No. For the simple reason that it confounds temperatures with heat flow. As does most of “climate science”.
The show represents a boat load of heat lost in the upper atmosphere as the snow formed (the ‘heat of fusion’ dumped to space) so REGARDLESS OF TEMPERATURES snow means heat lost. And that means cooling.
balaciava
Is that the Greek desert thing with the walnuts….?
“Or maybe some people just don’t have a sense of humour?”
There is a real problem there. Some people with a dry humour get dumped on for not taking things seriously.
So I no longer have an anchor to attach my scale to for deciding what is meant to be taken seriously.
Maybe we can adopt some kind of signal to show that are trying to be funnyt?
+^_^+
Fit_Nick says:
December 12, 2010 at 4:33 pm
R. Gates says:
December 12, 2010 at 12:01 pm
“Except for the fact that the planet isn’t cooling.”
Obviously a wittism must now include actual data to backup their related humour.
Or maybe some people just don’t have a sense of humour?
________
2000-2009 was the warmest decade on instrument record:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html
If the decade of 2010-2019 is cooler, you can claim that the planet is cooling, but not until.
E.M.Smith says:
December 12, 2010 at 4:41 pm
wolfwalker says:
So, in a devious way, a more snowy winter might indicate climatic warming.
Is there any validity to this?
No. For the simple reason that it confounds temperatures with heat flow. As does most of “climate science”.
The show represents a boat load of heat lost in the upper atmosphere as the snow formed (the ‘heat of fusion’ dumped to space) so REGARDLESS OF TEMPERATURES snow means heat lost. And that means cooling.
_______
You don’t get snow without evaporation which is driven by heat. It takes heat to create a snowstorm as they (like a hurricane) represent incredible amounts of energy. The coolest periods of earth’s history are the driest, not the wettest as there is less energy available for evaporation and the hydrological cycle slows down. So, when you are shoveling 20 inches of snow from your driveway, think about how much energy you expending to move each shovel full, and the multiply that energy over the entire region that got dumped on by the snowstorm and you can get a feeling for the energy it takes to bring that moisture from the ocean to your happy little driveway.
“R. Gates says:
December 12, 2010 at 5:28 pm”
/sarc on
And we all know how accurate, reliable and unadjusted the instrumental record is?
/sacr off
i love it.
just listen to rgates… we aren’t really experiencing cold….all that snow is produced by warming!!
it’s the warmest decade, and warmest year, EVAH!
R. Gates says:
December 12, 2010 at 5:28 pm
[R. Gates quotes and comments on an argument I’ve not followed closely. Then R. Gates concludes with…]
“If the decade of 2010-2019 is cooler, you can claim that the planet is cooling, but not until.”
Well that’s a nice little meaningless truism. In my neck of the woods, I can remove a layer of glacial rubble and find some cool marine fossils from the Devonian. That’s climate change I can believe in. It would seem the Roman Optimum and the Little Ice Age are just weather when compared to really noticable global climate change.
As P. Wilson pointed out to you on another thread, 2010 temperatures are about the same as 1730 according to CET. We seem to be bouncing around in a relatively narrow temperature range right now while we’re waiting for the next advance of the glaciers, eh?
peterhodges says:
December 12, 2010 at 11:27 pm
i love it.
just listen to rgates… we aren’t really experiencing cold….all that snow is produced by warming!!
it’s the warmest decade, and warmest year, EVAH!
______
Try removing 20 inches of snow from your driveway without expending energy. It takes energy to move moisture from the ocean to your driveway. The coolest periods (and places) of the earth are the driest, not the wettest…but I know it makes great fodder for some simple-minded skeptics to think about snow and warming as they apparently can’t grasp the bigger picture.
I am getting more and more confused.
They said that the decline in snow-cover, decline in ice sheets, decline in glaciers, decline in snow caps were all proof positive of AGW (or what ever the prayer book says the Proper Label is this week).
Now we are getting more snow-cover, ice sheets are growing, glaciers are extending, and (where the forests have not be removed) snow caps are growing, and the folks are telling us that is proof-positive of AGW (or what ever the prayer book says the Proper Label is this week). because that all requires precipitation and that requires heat……
WTH?
Fit_Nick says:
December 12, 2010 at 4:33 pm
R. Gates says:
December 12, 2010 at 12:01 pm
“Except for the fact that the planet isn’t cooling.”
Obviously a wittism must now include actual data to backup their related humour.
According to Anthony you should use a ‘sarc’ tag to indicate humorous remarks.
Phil. says:
December 13, 2010 at 9:49 am
“According to Anthony you should use a ‘sarc’ tag to indicate humorous remarks.”
I think the ‘Sarc’ tag should only be used for the benefit of warmist followers as they are the ones who never seem to have any sense of humour at all as they are just too quick in trying to put down any comment which goes against the doctrine, be it serious and by the looks of it ‘sarc’ones too…. and i thought the people on this wonderful site were open minded, intelligent individuals, which in my mind means they should have the simple ability to recognise a simple quip on a ‘seemingly’ cooling of our planet…
Hey ho… thats life..!!
“and i thought the people on this wonderful site were open minded, intelligent individuals, which in my mind means they should have the simple ability to recognise a simple quip on a ‘seemingly’ cooling of our planet…”
Speaking only for myself–because I am (apparently) abysmally [un|mis]informed it is not possible to tell side A is being sarcastic, because they sound like, exactly like side B when they are being deadly serious.
AND VICE VERSA.
“R. Gates says:
December 12, 2010 at 5:28 pm
If the decade of 2010-2019 is cooler, you can claim that the planet is cooling, but not until.”
According to the Hadcrut3 data, the average anomaly from 2001 to 2005 was 0.4554. The first 10 months of 2010 give 0.499 and this number is certain to go down when all 12 twelve months are counted. However even if we use 0.499 for 2010, the average anomaly for 2006 to 2010 is 0.4188. So the last half of the past decade was colder than the first half. See
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt
So while this statement of yours is correct: “2000-2009 was the warmest decade on instrument record”, we have in fact been cooling over this past decade according to Hadcrut3.