From Rasmussen Reports: 41% Now Say Global Warming is Caused By Human Activity, More Say Planetary Trends
Most U.S. voters continue to be concerned about global warming but still are more inclined to think it’s caused by planetary trends rather than human activity.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters finds that 41% think global warming is caused primarily by human activity, while 47% say long-term planetary trends are to blame. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This is consistent with findings for nearly two years. A higher percentage of voters have consistently blamed global warming on planetary trends rather than human activity since early February 2009 despite the insistence of President Obama, the United Nations and a large part of the world scientific community that humans are the bigger culprits.
Regardless of what’s to blame, voters take global warming seriously. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say it is at least a somewhat serious problem, including 32% who see it as Very Serious. But this concern has fallen since last November when the so-called ‘Climategate’ scandal broke, raising questions about the reliability of pro-global warming research. Thirty-eight percent (38%) now do not see global warming as a serious problem, including 16% who say it’s Not At All Serious.
The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on December 7-8, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted byPulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Unfortunately, Rasmussen polling is not worth the paper it is printed on.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
Sitting here in my heatless office, (they turn the heat off on weekends) I ‘d like a little
AGW right now-Wife’s got the space heater…
The colors of the reasons why folks are skeptical: The fickle ocean playing with the ever changing wind. The result? La Nina dresses in colorful costumes don’t she. It is the prerogative of a woman to change her mind and she does it with gusto under her rule. El Nino, that staid and quiet man, dresses in the drab colors of “not much going on”.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/
That said, the rend is away from AGW, thanks to sites like this one.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/126560/americans-global-warming-concerns-continue-drop.aspx
http://woods.stanford.edu/docs/surveys/Global-Warming-Survey-Selected-Results-June2010.pdf
Brad,
IIRC, Rasmussen was one of the most accurate polling organizations covering the 2008 presidential/congressional/senate elections, besting Gallup and most others.
Reading the comments, even pollsters are accused of bias.
Rasmussen tries diligently to be accurate, for the sake of credibility — something severely lacking in 538’s organizational structure.
Globaloney warming is caused 100 percent by human activity, the deletions of the coldest temperature sensors, as shown a few days ago on this site by the graph of temperatures versus number of weather stations.
There is no (or very little) physical effect, planetary or otherwise.
Brad ,
In the past few election cycles , Rasmussen polls have been the most accurate . The NYT is simply gloating that they weren’t this year . Most media outlets have complained of bias in Rasmussen , but results have disproven this , and being a little off on one election changes nothing . How well do NYT polls perform ?
I’d like to see the percentage of people who believe that global warming/climate change/global climate disruption is an invented, fraudulently and politically-motivated (non-)problem designed to scare the masses into accepting a centralised world government. They can count me in that group.
Looks like climategate had a lot more impact over here in UK than in the US. Entrenched political positions?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8500443.stm
tallbloke says:
December 11, 2010 at 1:02 pm
Looks like climategate had a lot more impact over here in UK than in the US. Entrenched political positions?
more like entrenched media.
and people will overwhelmingly choose belief over reality.
They passed health care with much less support. That is scary.
There is a good reason Ras might be biased more thannormal this year, and it is likely to get worse as 25% of households are currently cell phone, and Ras does not call cell phones. A Pew study shows that this creates bias alone:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1806/growing-gap-between-landline-and-dual-frame-election-polls
Additionally, Ras uses a very cheap polling method that firms like Gallup won’t touch, he uses automated calling, does not ask for certain household members, does not call houses back if noone answers, does not try to get people who refuse to actually participate. All of these cause bias, additionally he uses a correction for party affiliation that he does not publish anymore.
Ras is not a good pollster…
As for 538, there model was dead on this election, and was also very good in ’08 – the elections where Ras seems to be slipping.
David-
Agree, the entire thing is afraud and noone has polled that question, I would love to see a follow question up about AGW being complete BS.
Opinion polls show what impression people have of any given situation.
This is why Hansen et al continue to trumpet doom and gloom. It keeps the idea first and foremost in the public mind and eye.
Without Climategate to draw attention to the more nefarious aspects of climatology, we must continue to pursue every avenue of exposure to make sure that the reality of the situation trumps those jokers every time.
peterhodges says:
December 11, 2010 at 1:31 pm
tallbloke says:
December 11, 2010 at 1:02 pm
Looks like climategate had a lot more impact over here in UK than in the US. Entrenched political positions?
more like entrenched media.
and people will overwhelmingly choose belief over reality.
The mainstream media has said little about climategate here either, apart from a couple of vocal bloggers like Delingpole. But UK people are very cynical about government whitewashes, and read between the lines.
The disconnect between Camoron and the people is huge here.
The BBC should take another poll now! I’d bet the results will even be more anti global warming given the second year in a row the UK is buried in snow!
Where the most work needs to be done in educating the public is the beneficial effect of warming (predominantly at night, in the winter, and in higher northern latitudes) extending the growing season for the primary producers in the food chain (green plants). Moreover as CO2 increases in the atmosphere it increases the growth rate of green plants substantially while at the same time making them use less water per unit of growth. Fresh water is a resource that’s dwindling faster than fossil fuels! Adding yet more good news from increased CO2 the optimum growth temperature for green plants also rises with increasing CO2.
This should not come as a surprise. It’s the handiwork of a billion years of evolution wherein most of that time the earth was much warmer in the higher latitudes and CO2 levels were up to ten times what they are today. The biosphere today is a faint shadow of what it’s like with an optimum climate i.e. the climate where it spent the most time evolving.
I’d like to see how many people here in the UK still support CAGW in February 2011. It’s shaping up to be a real stonker of a winter here!
To top-off everything else, Insurance companies have decided that the fitting of winter tyres to one’s car constitutes a ‘modification’ incurring higher premiums. A lot more snow is forecast in the next month or so but I can’t afford to buy winter tyres and pay the increased insurance premiums.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/road-safety/8184361/Motor-insurers-slide-into-winter-tyre-row.html
Alvin says:
December 11, 2010 at 1:35 pm
“They passed health care with much less support. That is scary.”
It’s gonna get unpassed. The promise of it not raising the cost of health insurance has already been broken. Just about everyone who pays for health insurance has been given notice of 30% or more rate increase for 2011.
Obama voters got their change alright but it wasn’t the change they wanted. An entire generation of new voters just wised up and lot of older voters who should have known better than to switch horses midstream wised up too.
There is a good reason Ras might not be as good as he once was – Ras does not call cell phones, and fully 25% of households are cell phone only. It has also been shown by other pollster that there is skew caused by calling only landlines:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1806/growing-gap-between-landline-and-dual-frame-election-polls
Additionally, Ras uses automated calling, does not ask for certain household members, does not call houses back if noone answers, does not try to get people who refuse to actually participate, to participate. Gallup uses a very different method. That said, Ras was closest on the ’04 presidential, although he missed 7 states in 2000.
As for 538, their model was dead on this election, and was also very good in 2008.
Brad,
You’re heavily partisan, I get that. But the fact is that Rasmussen’s polling is pretty accurate. Even the far-Left leaning Wikipedia grudgingly admits that.
Rasmussen advised the G.W. Bush campaign, and Bush spanked both Kerry and Gore despite strong opposition from the mainstream press. Results matter, and Rasmussen produced. You can complain all you want, but the fact is Rasmussen’s polling is more accurate than most.
This is just too silly.
I don’t care if 99% of ‘the public’ say that global warming is caused by …..this…. or …..that…… . They are simply irrelevant to the truth.
Get a grip people! Science does not, repeat not, depend upon how many people propose a theory. Again and again in the history of science, individuals have shown the predominant paradigm to be wrong.
Therefor I cannot understand how such a poll as this is useful for anything except, perhaps, toilet paper.
Tall Bloke
The BBC madeup theirmind some years ago – they believe the “science is settled”. They are in the same class as the MSM.
Interesting but still distressing numbers… While the blue line is above the red line, I see convergence rather than divergence. Per the hockey analogy of a previous post, the score is still 5 – 2 so we need to keep our stick on the ice and our head up because this game is far from over.
The bbc are so on message ,it makes me cringe.
I`ll give you the gist of it.
BBC Drone..”Well…it seems you clever campaigners have saved the planet…and all our lives!!”
Environment Bothererer…”Yes indeed!”
BBC Drone..”Thank you! ..and now over to…..”.
Smokey-
I am not heavily partisan, Zogby was best is 2000 and has been terrible since. Ras has several problems with his model and approach, to not admit means you are heavily partisan and do not want good data. Gallup is a repub leaning firm, use them instead.
I love the BBC but they seem to really not get this. They are still going to have a special on warming in the coming weeks, truly clueless.
” 41% think global warming is caused primarily by human activity, while 47% say long-term planetary trends are to blame”
Long-term planetary trends such as . . . . . . . .
I’m posting from MN where we’re in the midst of a blizzard with 45 mph sustained wind, roads are closed, and whiteout conditions. Oh, and a foot of snow has fallen and there are already 6′ drifts.
Global warming hereabouts is much anticipated and would be greatly appreciated.
Missing from the Rasmussen poll is the question of where the ‘pollee’ gets news, old MSM vs internet and Fox . Many people, especially older ones, have never heard of Climategate, because they are entrapped by the Associated Press, Reuters, and the old local TV newscasts, all who never stop drumming the message of Al Gore.
tallbloke;
Cue the big pushback:
“Why don’t they believe us??”, he sobbed.
Heh, heh.
Kohl says:
December 11, 2010 at 3:18 pm
This is just too silly.
I don’t care if 99% of ‘the public’ say that global warming is caused by …..this…. or …..that…… . They are simply irrelevant to the truth.
Get a grip people! Science does not, repeat not, depend upon how many people propose a theory. Again and again in the history of science, individuals have shown the predominant paradigm to be wrong.
Therefor I cannot understand how such a poll as this is useful for anything except, perhaps, toilet paper.
Because, sweet Kohl, scientists do not control the public purse, nor conduct business, nor are they brave independent souls who refuse adamantly to cook their results to suit their paymasters.
Those whose livelihoods and futures are being put up against the wall by the forces manipulating climate science are turning against them. Not before time.
Owen says:
December 11, 2010 at 4:13 pm (Edit)
” 41% think global warming is caused primarily by human activity, while 47% say long-term planetary trends are to blame”
Long-term planetary trends such as . . . . . . . .
You see that bump on the left of the graph? That’s the medieval warm period that Mann now admits the existence of. Now, you see that big dip between then and now? That’s the little ice age. And we started coming out of that around 1700, long before co2 levels rose significantly.
Now, you see this chart of solar activity. The average number of sunspots from 1720 is around 40. The average in the second half of the C20th was going on double that.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/07/21/nailing-the-solar-activity-global-temperature-divergence-lie/
I have found that far more people are open to the idea of disaster being a man-made thing than it being something natural. A lot of people seem to need someone- *anyone* – to blame for bad things in their life. I would be interesting to see a large scale poll done asking questions like: Do you think the world will end in your lifetime? Do you want the world to end in your lifetime? Who do you think is responsible for global climate change? Do you think someone should be punished for global climate change? etc.
Of course the questions would have to be better thought out – but I think the answers would be eye-opening.
Sorry I meant to add to my last comment: These questions should be specifically put to Scientific communities, Academic communities, government workers versus individual workers/professionals.
Tallbloke, You may be tall and probably are a bloke (in the best sense of the word), but your sunspot ideas are unique to you. We are at a 100 year minimum in solar activity as measured by both sunspots and TSI. Ellipticity of orbit, axial precession, and axial tilt all indicate we should be cooler, rather than warmer (see http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/clisci100ka.html# ). People taking that Rasmussen poll have no idea of what is going on in climate science. We might as well ask a group of sheep (not that I have anything against sheep).
Now Owen, that might be a baaaad idea.
mutten good will come of it.
even if they come flocking to you…
I cannot see ANY poll being truly accurate. whether steps are taken to collect data from uncooperative people or not, there is still the opinion of the people that refused to take the poll. Why do they refuse to take the poll? Is it because they are truly cynical about the subject matter? Do they find the subject so ridiculous, so biased, and so pointless that they refuse?
maybe we need to take a poll on why people refuse to take polls.
I have three comments to make.
First, the poll does not allow for the middle way. Personally I’m quite happy to believe, having looked at various data quite carefully, that CO2 has an effect but only for about half of the recent warming. I think you’d find a big cadre to support that. And that’s important, because modest CO2 warming isn’t scary, and as we know, most Minnesotans are for it.
Second, the graphs show a dip in AGW support after Climategate, but then a rise again. This is worrying – it suggests that the MSM is succeeding in papering over the vast cracks in the walls of CAGW.
Third, re the difference in opinion in UK v US (and I am English), tallbloke’s link points to a February 2010 article. That is too old to count now.
Rich.
@Brad says:
December 11, 2010 at 4:05 pm
I love the BBC but they seem to really not get this. They are still going to have a special on warming in the coming weeks, truly clueless.
*******************************************************
I used to love the BBC but their immense bias and misinformation on this topic now makes me question almost anything they say. Strictly Come Dancing votes? We all know that they want Pamela Stephenson to win…;-)
I look forward to their “warming special” happening during the depths of another exceptionally cold winter (becoming less and less of an exception, of course).
The more the environutters scream out their message, the more normal, sane people will see through the insanity.
Brad,
Both Rasmussen (leans right) and Gallup (leans left) are close to accurate. This survey result is statistically significant.
Mauibrad
So now we’re “blaming” planetary trends, are we? The planet will be sooo upset.
and now I see Klimate Disruption has attacked the Minnesota dome in the form of a ‘snow caused roof collapse’, just two days before their Monday Night game pitting Brett Farve and the boys against the evil NY Giants or perhaps it was some gremlims.
Its the 41% of population that are unable to reason due to emotional insecurity and ignorance, who pose the most the most danger to human society. They will believe someone merely because they love or fear them. Replace AL Gore with a modern Joseph Goebels, and there is no difference except in physical appearance; Gore isnt wearing a Swatstika……yet.