The news last week was the quick turnaround, this year it is the speed of ice growth.
JAXA extent shows sharp growth, exceeding the 2009 rate, and almost as fast as 2005:
JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent -15% or greater – click to enlarge
In the last week, over a half million (505,938) square kilometers of Arctic Sea Ice has been added, one of the fastest gains in the satellite record.
On October 6th 2010 JAXA sea-ice extent has now broken through the 6M km2 line with 6,015,156 km2
10,04,2010,5892656 10,05,2010,6001406 10,06,2010,6035625 10,07,2010,6095781 10,08,2010,6205781 10,09,2010,6316563 10,10,2010,6398594
The DMI 30% extent chart could very well exceed the 2006 line in the next day or two, it has already exceeded the 2005 line.
And, compared the 2007 year, the refreeze is looking strong at CT:
Note though that Cryosphere today’s image has not updated since 10/07/10. Hopefully it will be back online tomorrow. There’s been some sensor issues seen at the NANSEN sea ice page the last few days, and since CT also uses the same data, that may be the issue.
UPDATE: Reader “AJB” offers this plot:
At Antarctica, after a weather induced dip, ice is rebounding and above normal, as well as ahead of this time last year. We have bipolar growth this week.
NSIDC Antarctic Sea Ice Extent – 15% or greater – click to enlarge
Is it just me or does the 2007 line seem to be a steeper gradient? either way it is recovering quick which is brilliant the more data to show that it is earth business as usual the better.
Jolly good show! This winter it will take the Catlin Expedition even longer not to reach the North Pole.
But…… IIRC, a Great Prophet foreboded in 2008 that the Arctic ice would disappear altogether in 2013.
“We have bipolar growth this week.”
You two?
Query,
What would the star patterns in our night sky look like if we didn’t have that space time continume thing to worry about? I mean, what would it look like if we were only 1/4 light year away. Those stars up there would look in a very different position than they appear to our naked eye. There should be a mathamaticial simulation to show us what their current position is, from a closer view, as opposed to the way we actually see them many many light years away, on a nightly basis.
Why does the autumn dip have a greater curvature than the spring peak?
Does this mean it is worse than…. oh, never mind.
I am beginning to hope that those Polish forecasts are wrong but ice re-freeze seems to be accelerating, or is that just me? Seems that a cold winter is on the cards.
Oh dear, how inconvenient.
Is it just me or does the 2007 line seem to be a steeper gradient?
It’s not just you, but it is an effect of the way people look at graphs. You are looking at the slope to the side and noting that it is steeper. But that is for a later time period.
You need to be comparing the slope directly below for the slope at the same time of year.
The slope for 2008 is a bit steeper, for the same period, but that is largely because the rebound was so strong from the bottom. From minimum to this time the increase is about the same.
You blokes are so naive. Can’t you see that it’s rotten ice and doesn’t count?
How many Manhattans??
Looking at what’s happening in Antarctic ice I think God has a sense of humor.
Mr Gates? Mr Gates?
The 2010 line in DMi has gone up higher. It’s on top of 2006 now.
http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/2730/icecover2010crop.jpg
—-
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_2010.png
tokyoboy:
He even held up 5 fingers to the listening dinosaur to make sure it understood.
Does looking at the ice maximum in March and April, or the ice minimum in Sept. and Oct. provide us the most useful info about long term sea ice trends? While I can see those two times have the largest variation, look at the tight bands of sea ice in June and January. Every year the ice seems to find its way back to almost the same amount of sea ice, even though its distributed differently every year. I wonder if the amount of ice in June is any less important than the ice in Oct.?
Also, someone who’s good with the numbers. Is there a correlation between the extreme ice min or max and the speed of the increase/decrease of the ice that follows it?
Ice growth (and therefore thickness) is related to time at a temperature below freezing. Instead of looking at only the area or extent of the ice, I suggest that comparing the time domain for the growth side of the curve is more useful.
This year the ice has reach the 6 Mkm^2 level several days sooner than the level was reached in 2008 or 2009. It is a couple weeks sooner than the 2007 rate. That indicates that this new ice will have more time to grow thicker than the prior years.
If you look at the growth in 2009 that way, it was several days to a week later than 2008 through October and November, indicating less time (thinner) for first year ice growth. Hence, a precurser to the this year’s min below 2008.
2008 was consistently weeks ahead of 2007, thus thicker first year ice and an increase over the 2007 min.
The flat curve for 2006 through November was an indication of stalled ice growth and contributed to the lower summertime min in 07, although the wind and weather made it
This type of comparison does not consider the ice movements, but, for me, it seems to puts the growth curve in context better than the area or extent levels alone.
That is good news, maybe carbon was not the best thing for the global warming crowd to hang their hat on, or maybe it was all just a snow job from the beginning. They seem to be hanging on to it but when the ship is sinking, best to let go.
Gain rate slowed a little over the past week. Now similar to 2004.
Chart: http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/6281/13day20101008.png
@ Mooloo [1:58 am]
“… an effect of the way people look at graphs…”
It’s not every Monday that you get whacked with an epiphany like that. I hadn’t even thought of it until you mentioned it.
Thanks.
The iceman cometh!
from today’s NSIDC front page:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html
“Arctic sea ice reflects sunlight, keeping the polar regions cool and moderating global climate. According to scientific measurements, Arctic sea ice has declined dramatically over at least the past thirty years, with the most extreme decline seen in the summer melt season.”
Since water vapor is the primary arbiter of solar irradiance and global temperature, I think we should start a hydrogen budget and start a trading scheme for hydrogen credits. What is your hydrogen footprint?
Also, scientists should start a way to sequester hydrogen to keep it out of the atmosphere. We could freeze water and store it deep into the earth’s mantle where it cannot get out. I think we should do a Request for Proposals for giant freezing machines. Then the EPA can declare dihydrogen oxide a pollutant, even more dangerous than CO2 since it is a more powerful GHG, and set California automobile standards appropriately. We could design cars to work on wind power, similar to ice sailing sleds, or solar powered cars to replace the hydrogen polluters.
Regarding the first chart (and its previous sort):
Say you took a dozen colored threads and braided them into a rope and then laid it on the floor and pushed it into the shape (roughly) of a sine-wave. Next take a photo of this thing on the floor, project it onto a wall and ask a group of 33 learned scientists to explain the character of the blue line versus the red line versus the orange line.
50 minutes later what would we know?
I bet the AGW supporters club got all excited when it dipped and looked like a new min and now it is recovering big time, you could almost think it was the wind what done it! what has happened to the lce floe that calved from Greenland?
Here is Al Gore at Copenhagen in December, 2009 saying more or less the same thing.
Then when the Arctic ice goes in the opposite direction they will talk of uncertainties. As Booker once said we have the weather and time on our side.
Bubbagyro, (@9:21)
All good ideas, except the Goracle has instructed us about the high temperatures deep in the Earth so that probably isn’t a good place to store frozen stuff. Consider the top of wind machines. Build them tall enough to reach really cold temps and they would also be strong enough to have a container perched on top. The blades could be about 3 kms long and produce lots of energy. Two birds with one stone, as they say.
Freddie says:
October 11, 2010 at 3:19 am
How many Manhattans??
————————————————————————————————
Apparently ~1 every 2 minutes.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/11/death-spiral-arctic-ice-at-a-record-high-in-the-dmi-database/
Chris Edwards says:
October 11, 2010 at 9:58 am
You mean what happened to the calved Ice Shelf from the Pederman Glacier?
It got cemented into the rapidly freezing Nares Strait as it rounded the corner, and should now be known as the Pederman Plug.
Scott BL says:
October 11, 2010 at 5:13 am
“Also, someone who’s good with the numbers. Is there a correlation between the extreme ice min or max and the speed of the increase/decrease of the ice that follows it?”
________
To my mind, the area under the curve has more meaning than max/min extent alone conveys. As you point out, the speed of the increase/decrease is also of interest. IMO ice volume changes would be the best measure for annual comparisons but for that you need thickness.
rbateman says:
October 11, 2010 at 10:50 am
Chris Edwards says:
October 11, 2010 at 9:58 am
You mean what happened to the calved Ice Shelf from the Pederman Glacier?
It got cemented into the rapidly freezing Nares Strait as it rounded the corner, and should now be known as the Pederman Plug.
Actually it didn’t, it’s presently drifting into the mouth of Glacier strait between Ellesmere Island and Coburg Island.
If you don’t know the answer you don’t have to make one up.
Phil. says:
October 11, 2010 at 12:50 pm
Actually it didn’t, it’s presently drifting into the mouth of Glacier strait between Ellesmere Island and Coburg Island.
If you don’t know the answer you don’t have to make one up.
Did you bother to watch as it got deep-froze into place by all the rapidly accelerating sea ice by visiting the daily Aqua/Terra images?
As for your assertion that I don’t know the answer:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100903072655.htm
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Earth_From_Space_Giant_Iceberg_Enters_Nares_Strait_999.html
http://www.polarfield.com/blog/tag/petermann-glacier/
The world seems to disagree with you, Phil. . They say it drifted into the Nares Strait.
I watched it get surrounded and pinned by advancing Sea Ice.
What exactly is your point?
If you look at the nice new graphic on the sea Ice pages out up by Ryan Maue;
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/nh_raw_temp_000.png
there is one heck of a warm up going on (from -40C to -10C) over Greenland that has been the result of an ongoing massive snowstorm as the 74 degree dew point air left over from “TS Nicole” and lately “Otto” dropping down to -10 to -12 degrees C, (can you say two week long white out Blizzard?) that makes me think the mass loss of Greenland is slowing down at the moment.
There is already developing a lot of the loopy jet stream pattern that I think is going to dominate the global circulation for the next 3 to 4 years before we drop back into a more uniform zonal flow pattern again.
It is a good thing they renamed “Global Warming” to “Climate disruption” cause the GW handle sure isn’t gonna fit.
@Mooloo
Great, thanks for pointing that out, of course it would recover quicker with a colder climate, makes sense. 😉
Maybe I should be on the IPCC I can read graphs and get out of them what I think not what they say. Would be nice to have near double my wage for forging err… citing brochures and essays.
Amazed that Phil & de Witt pain even bother any more…. the game is definitely over. NH ice is tracking 2006 and the AUC (area under curve for period is ABOVE 2009). Ice will “normalize” (which is meaningless anyway but the AGW crowd like it) completely this year 2010-11, and looks like tempos are dropping dramatically too….hahahaha
Richard Holle says:
October 11, 2010 at 1:55 pm
It is a good thing they renamed “Global Warming” to “Climate disruption” cause the GW handle sure isn’t gonna fit.
They cannot come straight out and admit natural Global Cooling as Earth’s
response to natural Global Warming, nor can they summon the nerve to point the stick in the direction of anything but CO2.
It’s all about a trace gas inflating a trace hypothesis with ginormous taxes to fight a trace problem.
Following thier terminology:
Global Warming (warm phase)
Climate Change (twilight zone of warming/cooling phases)
Global Climate Disruption (cool phase).
Record ice gain is entirely consistent with climate disruption.
Where is Mr. R. Gates? I want to hear his views on this bi-polar disorder. ;O)
James Allison says:
October 11, 2010 at 2:46 pm
Record ice gain is entirely consistent with climate disruption.
=====
LOL, here we go — Weather is now Climate.
Or, have we given up on Climate because the world knows the models are a mess and just throw darts at whatever is currently happening and call it a problem?
Sorry James,
I couldn’t resist and realize you were joking.
Anthony, thanks for the Antarctic Ice graph.
It’s about time that the very remote South end of this Planet was given some exposure so as to speak as after all it does contain many times more ice and covers a lot more area than the Arctic which draws all the available research money and attention.
The Great Southern Ocean rings the planet right around the Antarctic continent and as the Southern Ocean is also the only connection between all of the world’s major ocean basins it may eventually prove to be far more influential in the long term changes in the Global Climate than any Arctic influences ever were.
The state of the Arctic ice and temperature regimes may be an indicator only of the short term global climate.
The state of the Antarctic ice and the Great Southern Ocean may be eventually be proven to be some of the more influential drivers of the long term global climate.
We simply don’t know because the Antarctic continent and the Southern Ocean, two of the largest features of this planet, are basically ignored by nearly all of the northern hemisphere based climate researchers as well as those of just about every other discipline.
Yawn….
Wake me if:
1) The Arctic Sea Ice extent ever gets back above it’s longer term (30+ year) average.
2) CryoSat 2 Data is released.
Otherwise, it’s business as usual as the Arctic Sea ice extent continues below average, and currently, global sea ice total extent is as well.
REPLY: As you wish! We’ll hear no more from you then until one of these conditions are satisfied, all future comments from you on sea ice will be rejected. – Anthony
I’m not impressed yet. We’re looking at short periods of jiggly numbers. Slopes of jiggly plots are even goosier, less accurate than the numbers they’re derived from. Wait until the 2010 curve hits “the kNovember knot” where geographic constraints usually start affecting the growth of ice. Then we’ll see some action. Or (k)not.
Envisat ASAR image of the Petermann Ice Island
from Sept. 10
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=D32C361E-1&wsdoc=6B9146E8-209E-47E5-9F0E-383422E0BF42
NASA MODIS
from Sept. 16
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&xml=228FCC0E-EF3B-45E9-A879-86D2DFF3DD4A
The Petermann Ice Island fractured into two pieces on September 9 after colliding with, and then scraping along, Joe Island at the mouth of the Petermann Fiord.. On September 17, Environment Canada successfully dropped a beacon on PII-A. It can be followed here:
http://sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=47557
It did circles north of its present position for 10 days and today moved into the entrance to Jones Sound.
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=D32C361E-1&wsdoc=082CD667-6A9B-4205-AE25-A12B00D4E32B#Update2
Also from EC: “At the end of September, the two Petermann Ice Island fragments were respectively located in Kane Basin and at the entrance to northern Baffin Bay.” So it looks the gig island has broken free, but it does not have a beacon.
Anthony,
Why should R Gates be banned just because we are watching our belly buttons on Arctic ice Extent. I quite like his irritating posts.
WUWT seems to allow dissenting points of view. And if those dissenters insist on shooting at their toes, why clamp down?
Explain this:
The AMSR-E area plot shows the 2010 area greater than or equal to 2005 and 2006.
But,
The Cryosphere area anomoly plot has the current anomoly substantial less than the minimum anomolies for those years.
How can that be right?
Well I finally found Mark Serreze’s Arctic Sea Ice Death Spiral;
http://lh6.ggpht.com/_QiMvdrrujF4/TLPZq5hb2tI/AAAAAAAAABM/IZzS7s4yRmY/Arctic%20Death%20Spiral.png.jpg
It goes round and round, as it goes down and down.
UIUC Data Source;
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
Scott BL says:
October 11, 2010 at 5:13 am
It’s just a personal opinion but I still think it’s the Mpemba effect. i.e. the warmer the surface waters are, the quicker they turn into ice.
Steve from Rockwood, I don’t think he has been banned, he just will be woken when one of those two events happens. The first not likely, the second not too far away now.
It’s nice to see the ice recovery happen so people can forget how low it got this summer compared to most guesses on here 😀
Andy
rbateman says:
October 11, 2010 at 1:43 pm
Phil. says:
October 11, 2010 at 12:50 pm
Actually it didn’t, it’s presently drifting into the mouth of Glacier strait between Ellesmere Island and Coburg Island.
If you don’t know the answer you don’t have to make one up.
Did you bother to watch as it got deep-froze into place by all the rapidly accelerating sea ice by visiting the daily Aqua/Terra images?
As for your assertion that I don’t know the answer:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100903072655.htm
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Earth_From_Space_Giant_Iceberg_Enters_Nares_Strait_999.html
http://www.polarfield.com/blog/tag/petermann-glacier/
The world seems to disagree with you, Phil. . They say it drifted into the Nares Strait.
I watched it get surrounded and pinned by advancing Sea Ice.
What exactly is your point?
That you don’t know what you’re talking about and that the Petermann ice island is not surrounded and pinned in the Nares strait and therefore you couldn’t have watched that happen!
I told you where it is but apparently you can’t read a map.
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=47557
This just in: ice forms in the Arctic once it gets colder
Anthony
Its your bliog of course, and one of the great things about is that it lets dissenting views have a say. R Gates is no troll and his views stimulate comments. Banning him from sea ice threads will surely only let your detractors point out to the wider world that WUWT is no different to other blogs that censor views.
As I say its entirely your call but R Gates has always been polite and knowlegable even if he can be opinionated and (we think) wrong.
tonyb
R. Gates says:
October 11, 2010 at 5:01 pm
Yawn….
Wake me if:
1) The Arctic Sea Ice extent ever gets back above it’s longer term (30+ year) average.
2) CryoSat 2 Data is released.
Well that post is deserving of retribution is it not? What possible contribution to this blog does his arrogant dismissal make? It looks like he was aiming for to insult and deride and belittle and even though I look enjoy reading many of his posts this particular one was childish.
I would hope that R Gates sees the error of his ways and makes his apologies to the ‘PTB’.
We need different voices with different views and perspectives IMHO however we could do without the sarky childish silliness of someone who cannot engage and so tries to spoil the debate. Come on Mr Gates man up and big up eh?
Cassandra King
We have many contributors who make silly or frivolous comments at one time or another. R Gates is not unique in this. As I say it is Anthony’s ‘home’ but the punishment-and its consequences for the reputation of this blog-seem rather severe in comparison to the crime.
tonyb
tonyb,
I see your point but where is the line drawn? I think AW made the right call on this and it might just offer R Gates the attitude adjustment he needs.
I hope he comes back later because I enjoy reading his perspective and most of his posts.
Dear Mr. Watts:
Would it be possible to include the 1979 to 2000 average on the Arctic ice extent graphs or otherwise provide this information so we can do an arctic comparison on the same basis as the antarctic graph?
Also, could you include an arctic image comparable to the Cryosphere Today images for October 7th that shows the average for that date or the mean level for the month of October over the period 1979 to 2000 so we can measure the arctic ice recovery against this historical base rather than comparing it to the lowest possible level which occurred in 2007?
Comparison of multiple year averages would be preferable as variations in daily ice extent clearly exist from year to year as the JAXA extent graph provided above shows. Based on the JAXA extent graph, the lines for the various years do not show any extended period of time that any two years report the same values. In 2010 the ice extent for the month of April appears to have been higher than it was for any of the other years on the graph, but this did not prevent the 2010 line from falling to a level below the other years in June. In July, 2010 did not remain below all the years. Another example is June of 2007 which was greater than 2006 and 2010, but this did not prevent July of 2007 from falling well below 2006 and 2010. Based on the graph, the best prediction appears to be that the level for a given day in 2010 will not be the same as any other day in the 2002 to 2009 period. Based on the JAXA extent graph, it also does not appear possible to use the average for a particular month as an indication of where the ice extent will be in relation to other years in future months. Due to this annual variability it might be more meaningful to use a multiple year average to discern any trend in the state of the Arctic ice rather than watching ice extent on particular days and comparing it to a date with the lowest observed ice extent coverage.
Would ice volume provide a better indicator of the state of Arctic ice than ice extent?
As you are aware, PIOMAS has an ice volume anomaly chart based on a model (direct observations are not available for all periods), that if accurate (and I take it you do not believe it is accurate), may provide a better indicator of the state of the arctic ice. Direct satellite observations from CRYOSAT-2 should let us know if the PIOMAS model has been providing accurate information or not. The value of the PIOMAS volume anomaly chart is that it compares current conditions to the average conditions for multiple years for a given date.
Could you post an ice extent anomaly chart that compares current conditions to the average for that date for the 1979 to 2009 period? Cryosphere today may have such a chart. This would appear to be a better indicator of arctic ice trends than comparing 2010 to years after 2002, since all the years after 2001 appear to be below the 1979 to 2000 average ice extent.
The fluctuations in ice extent in the JAXA graph would appear to be clear indicators that more than just arctic air temperature affects the ice. Warming of waters entering from the Pacific and in some cases from the Atlantic which cause basal melting may exceed the impact of surface melting of arctic ice from air temperatures. Additionally, the amount of ice export through the Nares and Fram straits and weather systems over the Arctic also have an impact on ice extent. With so many factors which influence ice extent, it appears preferable to use multi-year averages to develop a trend line rather than using the conditions of any given day or a short time period to determine if a recovery of arctic ice has occurred.
REPLY: Visit the Sea Ice Page, available from the menu bar – Anthony
Found it, thanks.
In spite of the recent growth, it looks like 2010 is below the average and the multi-year trend is toward less arctic ice. Per the anomaly chart for today it appears the arctic ice needed another 1.499 million km squared of growth by this date before it recovered to the average while antarctic ice is .540 million km squared ahead of the average.
Has anyone ever done any serious studies of the effect that thousands of ice breakers- and the ships that follow them- have on the breaking of arctic ice which then becomes more vulnerable to melt and wind dispersal.
tonyb
I was cautioned strongly when I was a physics major against extrapolating from two points on a curve. Which is what “trends” represent. I also know that people see what seem to be patterns in random distributions which really aren’t there. I also accept that it is impossible to predict the future, whether by consulting an Oracle, examining chicken entrails, or using computer models, or by any other means.
Given the huge failures to date in attempting to make long term predictions of weather itself, and even a good many failures in quite short term predictions of weather, I would support reasearch in how to improve weather predictions, which I would imagine would take a great deal more developement of instrumentation and much more and better instrument placement than is available to folks like Anthony as of now.
From history itself, I know that there have been warm periods and cold periods, and that before the Petroleum Age, which began in the 1850s, life was pretty darn miserable for humans and “critters” alike. Life was far more tolerable during warm eras, and said warm eras have been few and far between in history.
This effort to artifically make temperatures cooler is akin to mass suicide, IMHO. Variance of temperature at the top end is not that important, in agriculture, but relatively minor variations at the low end determine whether crops fail or not, and I know from personal experience, having been reared on a farm in NW Iowa, from the time I was 3 years old through the summer of my 13th year, 1949, that excessively wet springs or wet autums play havoc in raising and harvesting crops.
There is a finite amount of air on Earth at any time, and air is a compressible fluid. When colder air comes towards the equator from either polar region, the approximate same volume of warmer air has to replace it. Some years, or series of years, more cold air moves towards the equator, sometimes little. I can’t imagine why anyone would get excited over natural processes such as this, unless they were making the error of extrapolating from two points on a curve into the future (projecting a so-called “trend”).
“Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.”
tonyb says:
October 12, 2010 at 12:29 pm
Has anyone ever done any serious studies of the effect that thousands of ice breakers- and the ships that follow them- have on the breaking of arctic ice which then becomes more vulnerable to melt and wind dispersal.
tonyb
_____________________________________________________________
A better question is how many icebreakers can go through one metre thick ice?
Or how many icebreakers can go through two metre thick ice?
I’ll assume 100 icebreakers total.
Then the next question is how often (annually) do these icebreakers travel through said ice thicknesses?
I’ll assume ten trips/year, and a mean travel length through the sea ice of 1,000 km.
The final question is, how wide of a path does each icebreaker make? I’ll assume 40 metres or 0.040 km.
So I get 40,000 km^2 annually, or 110 km^2/day.
Which I think is a small number with respect to daily sea ice growth/decay.
We also need to consider natural breakups and movements of the ice pack, given my albeit very limited understanding, the ice pack moves and breakups occur 247.
Also the wetted surface of the ice pack is ~2D, meaning the difference in the wetted surface going from a uniform ice pack (100% concentration) and say 0.001 km^2 (1000 metres^2 or ~30 metres on each side for a square chunk) separated chunks, at say one metre thick (ignoring rho of ~0.92 for the moment) is 4*30*1/1000 = 0.12 0r a 12% difference, which is << 1.
You are most welcome to come up with your own set of assumptions and numbers thereof.
IMHO, icebreakers have little effect on the Arctic sea ice pack in total on an annual basis.
The large Ice free area on the russian side where the Island Ostrov Kotel lies will be the main area that fuels the continued steeply upward graph motion…By the time it gets iced over we can move on to the Bering Straits & everywhere else.
I’m finally starting to relax….there will be Winter this year!!
EFS junior
You are exactly right on the number of dedicated ice breaking ships. But look at this from the US army corps of Engineers who conducted a 1994 feasibility study on the practicalities of greatly expanding the existing Russian northern sea route.
http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/techpub/CRREL_Reports/reports/NSR.pdf
The number of ships capable of breaking ice- cargo vessels etc-as opposed to ships specifically built for breaking ice, numbers in the thousands.
The extent of the sea routes travelling through the arctic has startled me. i suspect the constant breaking of ice must have some impact on overall ice levels.
tonyb
LarryOldtimer says: (October 12, 2010 at 12:44 pm) There is a finite amount of air on Earth at any time, and air is a compressible fluid.
And I continue to wonder what the volume of air contained under pressure in the millions of car, truck and tractor inner tubes would be. The air just seems thinner than it was when I was breathing it as a youngster…
TonyB says:
October 12, 2010 at 3:55 pm
EFS junior
You are exactly right on the number of dedicated ice breaking ships. But look at this from the US army corps of Engineers who conducted a 1994 feasibility study on the practicalities of greatly expanding the existing Russian northern sea route.
http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/techpub/CRREL_Reports/reports/NSR.pdf
The number of ships capable of breaking ice- cargo vessels etc-as opposed to ships specifically built for breaking ice, numbers in the thousands.
The extent of the sea routes travelling through the arctic has startled me. i suspect the constant breaking of ice must have some impact on overall ice levels.
tonyb
_____________________________________________________________
Hmm, my first real job was with CRREL back in 1975, I then moved on, and finally ended up here working at WES for the USACE ERDC.
Most of my work experience is with deep-draft harbors, moored ship motions, navigation at entrance channels, and military sealift (LOTS/JLOTS), I’ve been on about 40 cargo ships, even a Russian icebreaking tanker (inbound and outbound transits of Barbers Point Harbor, HI).
The report you cited, AFAIK, lists only icebreakers, so I don’t know exactly where in the CRREL report you cited, where the “number in the thousands” comes from.
If you don’t mind, could you point me to the section of that report (or other sources) that mentions “numbers in the thousands” as somehow I am unable to find that sentence/section in said report?
BTW, the ultimate ship database source is Lloyd’s Register, both online and hardcopy, annually (but it’s been awhile since I’vve used their data products;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd's_Register
http://www.lr.org/sectors/marine/Services/Classification/index.aspx
Hidden in R. Gates post is the sneaky comment about waking him up when Arctic ice grows back to the 30 year average. I wonder what would happen if these long term averages were “arbitrarily” centered on 2007.
EFS Junior
Sorry, I was doing this late at night on a 7 inch screen and came across a variety of very long reports which I scanned through and saw this reference as a passing quote in one of them. I pasted it to here in case I couldnt find it again this morning when I used my regular computer
In one of the items I came across it mentioned that the detailed information was contained in an Appendix of some report. It was along the lines of the numbers of ships capable of moving through ice up to 0.5m in thickness and how they rode over the ice to crush it rather than pushing it aside. (the laymans perception) It mentioned there were 110 ice breakers in the world and that the USA had only a couple at that time and it was a plea to get the govt to fund more in order to exploit trade.
The report I cited here (which may or may not be the one with the Appendix) was the most comprehensive and interesting (to me) as it was in a narrative form, rather than a technical one. It listed various sources of sea ice information prior to the satellite era which I required for an article I’m writing on the Arctic ice melt during the 1920-1940 period.
It also mentioned arctic sea routes which I was also interested in as we had some discussion here a few months ago regarding the opening up of a northern sea route. The tonnage moving through these arctic sea routes I found astonishing (but it wouldn’t be news to you with your background)
The report was also intriguing as it listed the years when it was impossible to get through the routes, for example it wasn’t possible in 1971 but it was in 1958.
I will have a proper read through of this report on a decent sized screen and see if I can find the reference again relating to the numbers involved of ‘ice breaking ships’ or whether it ocurred elsewhere.
As I say I was originally more intersted in the pre satellite ice information which partially related to my query as to whether shipping (in all its forms) caused any seasonal break up of ice cover that would not otherwise occur.
Sounds like you could write a book on your experiences. Can you suggest any good sources of pre 1979 sea ice coverage?
tonyb
tonyb says:
October 13, 2010 at 2:12 am
EFS Junior
Sorry, I was doing this late at night on a 7 inch screen and came across a variety of very long reports which I scanned through and saw this reference as a passing quote in one of them. I pasted it to here in case I couldnt find it again this morning when I used my regular computer
In one of the items I came across it mentioned that the detailed information was contained in an Appendix of some report. It was along the lines of the numbers of ships capable of moving through ice up to 0.5m in thickness and how they rode over the ice to crush it rather than pushing it aside. (the laymans perception) It mentioned there were 110 ice breakers in the world and that the USA had only a couple at that time and it was a plea to get the govt to fund more in order to exploit trade.
The report I cited here (which may or may not be the one with the Appendix) was the most comprehensive and interesting (to me) as it was in a narrative form, rather than a technical one. It listed various sources of sea ice information prior to the satellite era which I required for an article I’m writing on the Arctic ice melt during the 1920-1940 period.
It also mentioned arctic sea routes which I was also interested in as we had some discussion here a few months ago regarding the opening up of a northern sea route. The tonnage moving through these arctic sea routes I found astonishing (but it wouldn’t be news to you with your background)
The report was also intriguing as it listed the years when it was impossible to get through the routes, for example it wasn’t possible in 1971 but it was in 1958.
I will have a proper read through of this report on a decent sized screen and see if I can find the reference again relating to the numbers involved of ‘ice breaking ships’ or whether it ocurred elsewhere.
As I say I was originally more intersted in the pre satellite ice information which partially related to my query as to whether shipping (in all its forms) caused any seasonal break up of ice cover that would not otherwise occur.
Sounds like you could write a book on your experiences. Can you suggest any good sources of pre 1979 sea ice coverage?
tonyb
_____________________________________________________________
TonyB,
Thanks for the reply.
I did my own web search and found this link;
http://www.institutenorth.org/servlet/content/maritime_news.html
Their first link is to the “Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009 Report” see page 71 (75 in Acrobat) Table 5.1 and page 73 (77 in Acrobat) Map 5.1, there you will find ~6000 transits from 2004, however very few of these transits were through the Arctic sea ice proper, as most were either outside or along the perimeter.
The only data prior to 1979 that I’ve used is from this paper;
“Whither Arctic sea ice? A clear signal of decline regionally, seasonally and extending beyond the satellite record”
by Meier, Stroeve, and Fetterer
http://www.igsoc.org/annals/46/a46a251.pdf
Figure 3. Adjusted Hadley September ice extent, 1953–2005 (black), with linear, exponential and quadratic fit lines (gray).
I’ve extracted the TIFF image from Figure 3 and reconstructed their time series, updating it through 2010 (Excel 2010 spreadsheet). The data from 1953-1978 are from various nationals sea ice charts, the original dataset is gridded HadlSST1. I’ve done quite a bit of analyss on this dataset, mainly shifting the 1953-1978 era downward in 0.250E6 km^2 chunks, as I assumed that sea ice charts would cover larger areas than the 15% extent areas from NSIDC 1979-2010.
I’ll keep looking for additional information (I downloaded a bunch of stuff already on Arctic shipping in the modern satellite era, but don’t know right now if it’s of any use, I’ll scan through them though) on pre-1979 Arctic shipping, and Arctic shipping in general, and pass along relevant materials for your search.
In the meantime could you post the link to the information you’ve cited in your post?
Thanks,
Junior
Junior
The info was cited in the link I gave
http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/techpub/CRREL_Reports/reports/NSR.pdf
I’ve looked through it today but can’t see any mention of thousands of ships with ice breaking capability (as distinct to actual ice breaking vessels) I looked through a number of reports on this small screen last night so may be I didn’t see it in its proper context.
I searched (i think) on something like ‘reduction in arctic ice extent caused by ice breaking ships.’ I got lots of stuff most much too technical for my needs.
ll
If you come across anything relating to that subject or -my original interest-arctic ice extent pre satellite- please let me know.
I will read your two links with interest (but not on this small screen!
tonyb
TonyB says:
October 13, 2010 at 3:33 pm
Junior
The info was cited in the link I gave
http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/techpub/CRREL_Reports/reports/NSR.pdf
I’ve looked through it today but can’t see any mention of thousands of ships with ice breaking capability (as distinct to actual ice breaking vessels) I looked through a number of reports on this small screen last night so may be I didn’t see it in its proper context.
I searched (i think) on something like ‘reduction in arctic ice extent caused by ice breaking ships.’ I got lots of stuff most much too technical for my needs.
ll
If you come across anything relating to that subject or -my original interest-arctic ice extent pre satellite- please let me know.
I will read your two links with interest (but not on this small screen!
tonyb
_____________________________________________________________
Well I found a literal ship load of information today after several hours of searching the web, mostly PDF’s and a few Word *.doc’s.
I’ll start with this link;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Barr_(Arctic_historian)
http://www.arctic.ucalgary.ca/
http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/
http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/
Lots and lots of PDF’s in that last link.
Dr. Barr has published extensively on the Northern Sea Route, mostly historical and focused on the USSR/Russia.
I’ve also looked into Historical Arctic Sea Ice charts, Arctic shipping (historical as well as expected futures if the sea ice goes away seasonally).
There also appears to be several texts on Arctic exploration and shipping.
I’ll post some further links in follow-up posts.
I think someone could write a fairly good book on all this stuff.
Correction to previous post;
Last link is a no-go, as it’s their Arctic Journal and has none of Dr. Barr’s publications.
🙁
EFS Junior
Great information, I will look through it thoroughly and follow the links.
I have bookmarked this thread to pick up anything else you might write.
The Northern Sea route is going to be a big thing in the coming years and there will be political and financial repercussions surrounding it. Always assuming nature doesnt thumb ber nose at everyone by reverting to LIA conditions!
tonyb
tonyb says:
October 14, 2010 at 1:46 am
EFS Junior
Great information, I will look through it thoroughly and follow the links.
I have bookmarked this thread to pick up anything else you might write.
The Northern Sea route is going to be a big thing in the coming years and there will be political and financial repercussions surrounding it. Always assuming nature doesnt thumb ber nose at everyone by reverting to LIA conditions!
tonyb
_____________________________________________________________
THE FULL MONTY!
OK, so I found Dr. Barr’s webpage here (with links to publications and transactions);
http://www.arctic.ucalgary.ca/index.php?page=people&cop=view&id=4
This one may have already been mentioned on WUWT;
History of sea ice in the Arctic;
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/oce/mholland/papers/Polyak_2010_historyofseaiceArctic.pdf
Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes (Chapter 8);
http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-2/default.php
ACSYS Historical Ice Chart Archive;
http://acsys.npolar.no/ahica/summary.htm
Environmental Working Group Joint U.S.-Russian Arctic Sea Ice Atlas;
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g01962_ewg_sea_ice_atlas/index.html
Historical Sea Ice Time Series from the Atlantic Arctic;
http://data.eol.ucar.edu/codiac/dss/id=106.267
Advances in sea-ice data sets for XX century within the WMO Global Digital Sea Ice Data Bank (GDSIDB) project;
http://icoads.noaa.gov/marcdat2/P_Vasily_Smolyanitsky.pdf
Investigation of Arctic ice cover variance using XX century historical ice charts information and last decades’ microwave data (WMO FTP, there may be other good stuff there);
ftp://www.wmo.int/Documents/PublicWeb/amp/mmop/documents/JCOMM-TR/J-TR-22-CLIMAR-II-Proceedings-not-web/PDF-files/III_14_Smolianitsky.pdf
Discovery of the Northeast Passage: the Voyage of the VEGA, 1878-1879;
http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42790/1/10708_2004_Article_BF00221241.pdf
Observed sea ice extent in the Russian Arctic, 1933-2006;
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/publications/mahoney/Mahoney_2008_JGR_20thC_RSI.pdf
CCIN Historical Variability of Sea Ice;
http://www.socc.ca/cms/en/socc/seaIce/pastSeaIce.aspx
United States Arctic Research Commission;
http://www.arctic.gov/
Introduction to the background papers (www.arctic-transform.eu);
http://arctic-transform.org/download/Intro.pdf
Arctic Shipping (www.arctic-transform.eu);
http://www.arctic-transform.org/download/ShipBP.pdf
COMMERCIAL SHIPPING ON THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE;
http://www.cnrs-scrn.org/northern_mariner/vol03/tnm_3_2_1-17.pdf
ARCTIC SEA ICE CHANGES AND FUTURE ACCESS FOR MARINE NAVIGATION;
http://acsys.npolar.no/meetings/final/abstracts/posters/Session_4/poster_s4_170.pdf
ARCTIC SHIPPING;
http://repository.tudelft.nl/assets/uuid:2da3ee1c-12be-4ab3-ab6f-b0bc1a4e54a2/SRINATH_BADARI_NARAYANA.pdf
An Arctic Dream-The Opening of the Northern Sea Route: impact and possibilities for Iceland;
http://skemman.is/is/stream/get/1946/6099/1/An_Arctic_Dream_The_Opening_of_the_Northern_Sea_Route_impact_and_possibilities_for_Iceland.pdf
This next one is in Russian, but it is their Polar Museum, I would think that this would be the proverbial “gold mine’;
http://www.polarmuseum.ru/
http://www.russianmuseums.info/M132
Russia and the Arctic Circle;
http://se2.isn.ch/serviceengine/Files/RESSpecNet/56816/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/EA9555BF-CA2F-4176-86B6-8F4DEB6689E3/en/Russia_and_the_Arctic_Circle.pdf
The Northern Sea Route;
http://www.sof.or.jp/en/report/pdf/200103_rp_ar0103e.pdf
The Northern Sea Route;
http://www.fni.no/doc&pdf/clr-norden-nsr-en.PDF
Across The Top Of The World: USCG Northwest Passage 1957;
http://www.uscg.mil/history/articles/Northwest_Passage1957.pdf
International Northern Sea Route Programme;
http://www.fni.no/insrop/
Accounts from 19th-century Canadian Arctic Explorers’ Logs Reflect Present Climate Conditions;
http://seagrant.uaf.edu/nosb/2005/resources/arctic-explorers.pdf
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA);
http://amap.no/acia/
About the Arctic Portal Mapping System;
http://arcticportal.org/maps
A Tsarist Attempt at Opening the Northern Sea Route: The Arctic Oeean Hydrographie Expedition, 1910-1915;
http://epic.awi.de/Publications/Polarforsch1975_1_6.pdf
Unprecedented low twentieth century winter sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas since A.D. 1200;
http://www.gcess.cn/UserFiles/File/john-Macias-Fauria_2009_ClimDyn.pdf
Northern Sea Route Cargo Flows and Infrastructure – Present State and Future Potential;
http://se2.isn.ch/serviceengine/Files/RESSpecNet/96621/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/AC98AB8E-7FE2-4441-88FA-8A026C799787/en/FNI-R1300.pdf
Bibliography on the History of Arctic Marine Science of the 20th Century;
http://scilib.ucsd.edu/sio/hist_oceanogr/Day_Bibliogr_History_Arctic_Marine_Science.pdf
Can we reconstruct Arctic sea ice back to 1900 with a hybrid approach?;
http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/4/955/2008/cpd-4-955-2008.pdf
http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/4/S600/2008/cpd-4-S600-2008.pdf
The Dehn Collection of Arctic Sea Ice Charts, 1953-1986;
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g01111_dehn_charts/index.html
National Ice Center Arctic Sea Ice Charts and Climatologies in Gridded Format;
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02172_nic_charts_climo_grid/index.html
Sea Ice Charts of the Russian Arctic in Gridded Format, 1933-2006;
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02176_aari_charts/
Environmental Working Group Joint U.S.-Russian Arctic Sea Ice Atlas;
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g01962_ewg_sea_ice_atlas/index.html
Remote Sensing of Sea Ice in the Northern Sea Route (Book $$$);
http://www.springer.com/earth+sciences+and+geography/geophysics/book/978-3-540-24448-6
http://www.springerlink.com/content/m7q5743v750705l0/
Arctic Sea Ice Data Sets in the Context of Climate Change During the 20th Century (Book $$$);
http://www.springerlink.com/content/hx2566t765q322k0/
Perspectives of Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage in the twenty-first century (Paper $$$);
http://www.springerlink.com/content/m1323270759m0242/
THAT’S ALL FOLKS!
Ice just begining to form off Pt barrow,Ak beach
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam
There was some Slick ice forming when I posted but that has gone…Beach water temps are at 29 degrees so it could happen anytime..
Phil. says:
October 11, 2010 at 10:33 pm
rbateman says:
October 11, 2010 at 1:43 pm
Phil. says:
October 11, 2010 at 12:50 pm
Why disuss it when you can see for yourself where they are in the radar image from October 12, 2010 which shows the location of the Petermann Ice Islands A, B, C, D, just above Coburg Island and several pieces that don’t have a letter.
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=D32C361E-1&wsdoc=B75BC3BC-8FD3-45D2-AA65-FDF066FB0231
Per Canadian Ice Service:
“October 18, 2010 – – On October 8, 2010, the PII-A and PII-B almost re-united off the southeastern tip of Ellesmere island. Shortly after, PII-B broke into 3 pieces with many smaller pieces nearby the “parent” icebergs. Two small pieces found their way 140 km further south and lay almost due east of Devon Island. ”
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C140C5D-1&wsdoc=082CD667-6A9B-4205-AE25-A12B00D4E32B