Easy come, easy go. Nicole was upgraded from TD16 at 11 AM and dissipated as a tropical storm at 5 PM. Nicole joins Tropical Storm Chris from 2000 as the only other 6-hour 35-knot maximum sustained wind tropical storm [since 1970 & reliable satellite monitoring]. Nicole joins Bonnie and Gaston from this season as top-ten weakest storms on record. By the way, when you do the post-season storm verification, Nicole + Bonnie + Gaston = 3 storms with a total ACE of less than 1. Danielle + Earl + Igor = 3 storms with a total ACE > 90.
About Chris (August 18, 2000):
There were too few forecasts associated with Chris to conduct a meaningful quantitative forecast evaluation. Despite the prevailing wind-shear environment , all intensity guidance as well as the official forecast incorrectly suggested strengthening.
From the NHC Discussion on Nicole:
SATELLITE…AIRCRAFT…AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER…WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED…HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW…NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF NICOLE…IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Over at Climate Audit, we described this type of storm as a “baby-whirl“. The ACE of Nicole is 0.1225. Here are the top 10-weakest storms from 1970 to 2009 according to ACE in the North Atlantic: [year, name, ACE, max wind (knots)]
2000 CHRIS 0.1225 35.0
1999 KATRINA 0.245 35.0
2002 BERTHA 0.245 35.0
2005 LEE 0.245 35.0
1995 DEAN 0.2825 40.0
2005 BRET 0.3675 35.0
1988 ISAAC 0.405 40.0
1978 DEBRA 0.41 50.0
2005 JOSE 0.4475 45.0
1978 AMELIA 0.485 45.0
2010 GASTON 0.3675 35.0
2010 BONNIE 0.3675 35.0
2010 NICOLE 0.1225 35.0
The naming of Nicole this morning was dumb. They had a pretty good idea TD16 would blow out when it butted up against the extra-tropical low that’s going to flush the seaboard over the next 24-36 hours, what was the hurry to stick a name on it? Maybe there needs to be a new name class for stormlets such as “Snookums”, “Daddy’s girl”, or “Junior” …
This rush to name storms – it’s all about beating the monkey:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/18/think-tank-says-trained-chimp-can-predict-hurricanes-better-than-noaa%E2%80%A6-and-puts-it-to-the-test/
looks like they’re padding the count to meet their predictions…
It is my opinion that NOAA is eager to name storms because they know people think the number of named storms indicates how active a year was. Who knows the ACE? Not many. But who knows letters of the alphabet? Everybody.
“This rush to name storms – it’s all about beating the monkey:”
100% correct
Nicole did not meet their own definition, and they named it anyway…..
The “official” rain gauge says I got a little over 9 inches, it filled up a 5gal bucket before 10am this morning.
Hmmm. Three of the top ten, just this year alone.
Must be a sure sign of Climate Disruption.
If you call things storms that previously would have been considered too weak, then you can point to an increased frequency. Simples, as the meerkat would say.
Nicole!
Watts in a name?
I think the over-calling of tropical storms correlates with the politics of global warming. Scare the public and soften them up for the coming “economy of doom” which is guaranteed to occur with increasing CO2 regulations. Sacrifice in the name of green energy, while the politicians echo the false promise of jobs. It is a sick, sick world in which we live. Doublespeak and deception rule.
I predicted an Atlantic ACE of 129 on August 10th, 2010:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/10/klotzbach-on-atlantic-hurricane-season-analysis/#comment-454057
If the rest of the season is popcorn farts like Nicole I’ll be very very close because ACE was 130 last time I checked.
As Usual, Joe Bastardi sees things differently. He states, “The declaration of the death of Nicole is something I do not agree with. We will be able to track the southern system, the center is near the thunderstorm bomb developing at the southern end of the arcing band of thunderstorms over southeast Florida. The development of the low they are talking about is much further north.”
Just to cover it’s posterior, the NWS at Taunton has issued the following statement: “THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 PM THURSDAY AND 5 AM FRIDAY.”
While a “watch” is not the same as a “warning,” it does seem they are wary of a tropical blob coming up the coast. In pre-satellite days any such warm storm rushing up the coast would have been called a tropical storm. It is only now that folk can argue about “structure.”
And these guys think that they can model the weather 100 years in the future?
By the way, the Taunton NWS office is in Massachusetts.
from wiki…
Naming issue
During the 1950s and 60s, subtropical cyclones were simply called “semi-tropical”. There was much discussion between meteorologists in the late 1960s as of what a subtropical cyclone was. So, in 1972, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) officially classified the word under a new category, different from actual tropical cyclones. During the 1970s, the NHC began making a new list of names, separate for subtropical cyclones, although that process was soon canceled because it was rejected by many scientists. After that, subtropical storms were just numbered, such as Hurricane Karen from 2001 which was originally named Subtropical Storm One.[2] But on 2002, a policy change had tropical and subtropical storms share the same list of names for the whole season, which started with Subtropical Storm Nicole in 2004.
They changed policy in 2002…. hmmm I question the timing.
Paul Coppin says:
September 29, 2010 at 4:18 pm
“Maybe there needs to be a new name class for stormlets such as “Snookums”, “Daddy’s girl”, or “Junior” …”
Good one! If you’d have added “First!” it would have been perfect.
Does that mean the warmth we’ve heard of in the ‘Hot Atlantic’ and now Caribbean must just be skin deep? Seems the hurricane lovers are getting a bucket of cold water this affair.
20 years ago, no way this storm is given a name. No. Way. They are naming any group of could that registers a gust of 10mph these days…
Caleb says:
September 29, 2010 at 5:42 pm
” In pre-satellite days any such warm storm rushing up the coast would have been called a tropical storm. It is only now that folk can argue about “structure.””
True but in all fairness we’ve had satellite images for 50 years since the launch of TIROS I in 1960.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_Infrared_Observation_Satellite
“where’s the Kaboom?, there’s supposed to be an Earth shattering Kaboom…”
Marvin the Martian
From the NWS discussion in Wilmington, NC:
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/…
as of 9 PM Wednesday…an epic and historic flooding event is
ongoing across the Cape Fear region. Rainfall records that were
set during 1999’s hurricane Floyd…a once in 500 year storm…are
going to be threatened over the next few hours as a tremendous
stream of deep tropical moisture continues to slam onshore.
Reports of Road closures are piling up across southeast North
Carolina and travel is strongly discouraged tonight.
An unseasonably strong upper low over north Alabama is directing
deep tropical moisture north out of the Caribbean and into the
Carolinas and Middle-Atlantic States. Poes total precipitable water
imagery confirms model projections of precipitable waters in the 2.5 inch range.
A surface front stalled just off the coast is enhancing lift and
low-level convergence…increasing precipitation efficiency. The
remnant circulation of former Tropical Storm Nicole will not
directly affect the region tonight…but a new baroclinic low
is developing along the front along the Georgia coast and will
move north through the area overnight. This low will deepen
rapidly…and should drag the surface front back into the Cape
Fear counties after midnight.
-Chris
People (and phenomena) can live-up to their names, as I can attest from personal experience.
I have known 2 Nicoles in my time.
One was gentle and frigid, just like this storm.
The other “lasted all of 6 hours”, just like this storm. Go figure.
they named Nicole, and even TD16 when it wasn’t that organized, with no storms near the center. However, it looks better now then it ever has before, and will probably strengthen and organize going into the coast as it’s OWN entity, and should still carry the name Nicole
Let them name weak storms. let them count weak storms. the more the merrier.
All it means is that someone will point out that the storms ‘average’ intensity is falling.
silly.
Mr. Joe Bastardi has a lot riding on number of storms/hurricanes and how many make landfall. Which isn’t happening so far.
Sure was a bright day in Ohio and Indiana today. First time in three years I wanted to grab sunglasses. I think things are brightening up. But, too, the solar wind has been up for several days in a row pushing the cloud banks back. Still, from what I observe, the dimming in the NH from volcanic activity seems to be letting up a bit. That could change but if it does stay bright that might help take some of the edge off this winter. *crosses fingers*
When it comes time to say “See, I told you so”, this 6 hours will not matter. It’s in the “Yes” column in perpetuity for the “was it really a storm of biblical proportions” category.
These people never sleep.
I’m sure Ryan is the only person in the world who gets excited by small storms and low ACE !
🙂
Andy
Today the moon is Maximum North declinational culmination @ ~23.7 degrees, the enhanced primary tidal bulge in the atmosphere just East of the Rocky Mountains is centered over Huntsville, Alabama, where it has been pioviting around for two days. With the polar air to the west of Huntsville and the equatorial air mass East to the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean.
For the next six days we should continue to see the high precip rates move North along the eastern seaboard. Starting early yesterday the 28th those two areas of tropical moisture off the west coast of Africa now at 12.5 deg N and 50 deg W being the “dig daddy” with his “little sister” to the east, should become active with real circulation and eyes like a normal TS, like Igor and Julie or Earl and Fiona, did earlier.
With a large swath of Precipitation up along the Eastern seaboard starting on October the 7th. (see the daily maps on my site) being off of the coast of Maine and Newfoundland by the 12th or 13th October 2010, when the Moon will be maximum South.
I expect a large flow or tropical moisture to come into the Western side of the Gulf of Mexico, starting on the 10th. and running until the 14th or 15th of October 2010, with a general return flow of much more moisture up into the Central plains from Texas, Mexico, and the gulf states for the whole 27.32 day cycle.
I don’t mean to be antagonistic, just sticking my neck out of my shell, the truth will be the axe wielder.
[REPLY – Attempting to locate antagonism. Please advise. ~ Evan]
I thought it might be when I made this comment of on the Klotzbach and Gray thread…
Ryan Maue says:
September 29, 2010 at 9:12 am
“”[ryanm: it’s clear that Santa Ana wind events, i.e. offshore flow are becoming more intense, consistent with what is expected/predicted by climate models. those 2.5×2.5 grid cells resolve those mountain passes perfectly]“”
____________Reply;
(I hope you are being sarcastic?) —> ryanm: 😉
Some here say my ideas reek of “Electric Universe concepts” or “astrology” although I have not had much feedback from Anthony or you mods about how close to “over the line” I am being. Was never my intention to stir up trouble, just find the truth no matter what clothes it wares or hides.
4:00 AM EST: Radar seems to show a swirl east of West Palm Beach. I don’t think it can be called a “frontal” storm, because I don’t think the front ever made it that far south. Therefore, for what it is worth, the swirl ought be called “tropical.”
It will be interesting to watch how the low to the north handles the tropical blob to the south, and how strong the blob gets as it swings north over the Gulf Stream.
I really enjoy watching these things. It seems to give me a refreshing break from politics. However then my subconcious intrudes, and I find myself possessed by a overpowering hankering to see the southern low explode, and swing north to clobber Washington DC. So….I suppose modern politics corrupts even my enjoyment of clouds.
5:00 Am EST: On Radar it looks like it is trying to wrap-around an eye, just the slightest bit, over Freeport in the Bahamas.
I’m just a bit nervous the NWS might have dismissed this blob a bit too early. Remember, it is over the warm Gulf Stream, and will be over warm water until it hits North Carolina.
Blast. I have to get off my butt and go to work. I doubt my mind will be on the job.
Thanks to “Nicole” we will be getting our first shot of Northerly dry air here in West Central Florida since the hurricane season started. This will be followed by another reinforcing front over the weekend that will bring night time temperatures down to 70 degrees for the first time since the summer started.
This time of year I always look for these first frontal passages here in Florida, especially if they are amplified by merging with a tropical system, as seems to be the case this time. These fronts and mergers signal the end of the hurricane season. Birds know it too, they are flying south by the thousands, with fallouts all over the state at the moment.
One of the best examples of this was back in 2005 – Hurricane Wilma hit Ft. Lauderdale from the SW. It signaled the end of that hurricane season. No A/C needed for a week after that one.
Sure, we can have a couple of storms come out of nowhere in the next month or so and scare the c*** out of us. Back in the nineties we had a really bad one here in November, not named by the way.
Nevertheless, I’m calling this thing officially terminated :).
We are up to “N” already?!? — John M Reynolds
Whether its called “Confirmation Bias” or described by the adage “You find what you look for” or “What’s measured becomes important” – the long term record of “Named Storms” is getting distorted. Textbook example here – that wouldn’t have been reported 10 years ago.
Its funny the impact a squadron of researchers with new toys can have. I imagine a room full of guys waiting around in breathless anticipation for the latest drop sonde or satellite info that kicks the storm into 35 mph realm. Technically correct perhaps – but applied with little judgment.
Might not be a bigun, but it is p***ing down rain, that’s for sure.
Ironic a “Katrina” is one of the least intense storms on record.
Pissed it down here in the UK yesterday, warm & wet, sunny today, but forecast’s for more wet tomorrow.
We don’t really do extreme weather!
Nicole’s effects put a big dent in a serious drought here in western MD & other areas of the mid-Atlantic states. From Nicole & rain from the previous front two days before that set up Nicole’s track, I got 3.80 inches of rain. The total summer rain here prior to that (June thru late Sept) was a mere 7 inches.
Count padding in your face.