Well, that was quick. Watch this animation from my radio station web page to see Hurricane Danielle start to disorganize:
Here’s the latest bulletin from NHC:
WTNT31 KNHC 241442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010
…DANIELLE UNEXPECTEDLY WEAKENS…BUT FORECAST TO REGAIN
STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.6N 46.5W
ABOUT 985 MI…1585 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH…130
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH
DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED…RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.
Rats, I was hoping to follow this storm for a while yet . . .
Cooler water in that section of the Atlantic.
According to the NHC bulletin, it ain’t over ’til the avoirdupois-challenged lady sings. Give it another couple of days.
Here in Buffalo, one of our on-air meteorologists went off script and got it right. He said it would curve out to sea (we’ll see) but he also said it was entering a pool of dry air, not kind to storm development/intensification.
So much for the models.
Of course, weather being weather, it could all change in a day or two and she could intensify. Or she could fizzle and really leave the forecasters scratching their heads.
Danielle, stop it…stop it, I say. I am counting on you becoming a Cat 5 hurricane and hitting a major American city like Miami, or Houston. Where it can do the most good for my global warming predictions.
Signed,
A true believer
What caused them to miss this one?
Is it just an area of cooler SST or is it more?
Is it the dry air?
Is it both, and/or forces unseen?
I have never, ever seen the NHC issue a statement “_____ unexpectedly weakens”, nor have I ever seen a cyclone unwind as fast as this one did with such favorable conditions aloft.
Yesterday this time with its buzz-saw look that there should have been anything to stop it!
Maybe Paul Pierett is on to something.
And from the NHC discussion:
“The period of rapid intensification has ended with a thud. The
low-level center of Danielle has become exposed between a ragged
central dense overcast to its east…and a broken convective band
to its west. All along…microwave imagery since about 0300 UTC
showed a dry slot wrapping around the western and southern side of
the circulation…and as a result the eyewall became eroded. Data
T-numbers have fallen quickly and are now as low as t3.9 from the
hurricane intensity estimate…an experimental form of the UW-CIMSS
ADT. The initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt at this time…
which could still be generous. SHIPS guidance shows westerly to
southwesterly shear increasing to between 15 and 20 kt over the
next 24 hours or so…and it is unclear how well Danielle will be
able to mix out the dry air. Only slow strengthening is indicated
in the official forecast…and the intensity at days 4 and 5 is
held just below major hurricane strength to maintain some sort of
continuity…but this is now above many of the intensity models.”
Chris
Hide the decline!
Leon,
It is nice to have seasoned meteorologists that use their knowledge and experience and not just repeat things other people have said. There aren’t too many of them left. As far as reporters doing that those numbers are even smaller.
Remember the monkey that predicted the number of storms and their intensity this year? Compared to NOAA, the monkey is kicking butt.
Now renamed Hurricane Cameron.
2009 had six named storms between August 15 and September 8. So far 2010 has had one since August 15. This is the normally busiest three week period of the year.
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2010/named-storms-climatology.gif
Oh, mon petir Danielle!, you see, crying is good, as soon as you cried all your troubles ended.
In terms of hurricanes and lost lives the ten worst happened before 1970 – according to the following page.
http://library.thinkquest.org/C003603/english/hurricanes/tenworst.shtml
Sooooooo that Hopey Changey thingy doesn’t work for hurricanes either.
That’s like the micro-spots on the sun… as soon as there is a little twisting winds above the Atlantic Ocean they put a name on it and they get the count up.
Slightly off topic but that NEXRAD radar image to the right is way out of whack. Currently shows widespread rain over central Texas, when it’s currently hot and sunny.
Why is it news that less favorable to the uber-liberal or uber-democrat causes always happens “unexpectedly”?
Home sales “unexpectedly drop 27%”
Unemployment claims “unexpectedly rise to 500,000 this week”
Hurricane Danielle “unexpectedly weakens”
Could there be a set of agendas in the main stream media? Nah, journalism is neutral, unbiased. Just ask the hundreds of “journalists” on Journolist.
3×2 says:
August 24, 2010 at 9:23 am
Now renamed Hurricane Cameron.
Yes, and it’ll just sneak out the back, up the coast.
This will be a nice example of a hurricane that (in the past) would never have been detected as a Cat 2.
But it will be entered in todays modern databases as a Cat 2 max intensity (if even just a few hours).
Ray says:
August 24, 2010 at 9:45 am
“…That’s like the micro-spots on the sun… as soon as there is a little twisting winds above the Atlantic Ocean they put a name on it and they get the count up.”
I thought that with the previous systems (TS Colin & maybe even Bonnie) but this was a valid hurricane with an eye & everything…just not for very long.
Jeff
Here is the link to the swath of dry air choking the convection associated with Hurricane Danielle. Looks as though convection is popping off again around the center, but the dry air to the west could continue to remain and inhibiting factor regarding intensity. SST’s are more than conducive for development in that area at about 29C.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html
savethesharks says:
August 24, 2010 at 9:02 am
> What caused them to miss this one?
I don’t know – they see what we see, they should have a better handle on things.
> Is it just an area of cooler SST or is it more?
> Is it the dry air?
I’d go for the dry air. That seems to have given the NHC fits in the past, and it’s probably harder on the models. Also, a sudden collapse like this one is often related to dry air.
Where windshear blows the tops off storms and disrupts convection, dry air feeding into the eyewall cuts the storm at its knees. Especially in category 4 or 5 storms with their prodigious energy demand, a dry feed just clobbers them and they can take days to recover.
I was looking for an example of what dry air does to an intense storm, I wasn’t really expecting to find a Cat 2 example.
Jack says:
August 24, 2010 at 10:18 am
It has been documented that certain groups within the general population suffering from the previously unknown disease Iknoweverythingthereistoknowophobia will often comment on perfectly natural events as manifestations of the exotic or supernatural. In laymans language, the cure is often accomplished by removing ones head from ones ass.
James Cameron must have challenged it to a gunfight and its running away. Oh…wait…I got that backwards.
The NHC has quickly pulled back its intensity projection on Danielle in its 11:00 am (EDT) Discussion (as pointed out above). Anthony and friends saw this coming before the NHC public statement. Keep it up here on WUWT. I’m sure the NOAA crowd will be watching you watch them. This is new and great stuff! Now watch to see if NHC keeps its intensity rating up over the Cat. 1 threshold long enough to keep the MSM’s shorts all knotted-up.
What a relief! Thought Danielle was going to become a screaming dervish which would cause massive havoc as it smashed across the US coast – if you believe what the MSM want to push.
Like the shepherd boy who cried wolf too many times, alarmism is an irresponsible and dangerous thing.
J Solters says:
August 24, 2010 at 11:14 am
That would be a very good advice for them: Just read WUWT everyday just arriving to their job and all their forecasts will dramatically improve in quality.
Tenuc says:
August 24, 2010 at 11:36 am
a screaming dervish?
Your association seems to refer to the dervishes’ dance of the enneagram, where they perform the development of the sacred law of seven (octave). That is a pertinent association.
This is totally consistent with AGW. It’s been known for a long time that one of the effects of CO2 induced global warming is that hurricanes will downgrade as they approach North America. Unless they don’t downgrade…and then that’s consistent as well.
looks like my prediction is still in the running:) Hehe all the best models, monkeys, and squid against a Tarot card.. Im lmao.
There has been almost universal agreement that this would be a big hurricane season from forecasters of all sides of the global warming spectrum.
This certainly is not a skeptics vs. alarmists issue.
@ Carddan (August 24, 2010 at 9:18 am)
I strongly object to you calling him “the monkey” …
“he” is Dr James Hansimian, and he holds a PhD …
moreover, in forecasting the future, any future, his method (2 dice) has been proven to be far more superior than the ubiquitous computer model …
a computer is a great piece of equipment (proof is e.g. this site or the internet), but not for giving even a hint of what is happening tomorrow, let alone in a month …
the 5 pm update now shows wind speeds down to 70mph. i wonder if that was in any of the models…
Now that it is weaker, it is less vulnerable to the upper level steering environment. More west than north, maybe? If it stays weaker, I’d be a little more worried about it sneaking underneath and coming a little closer to the southeast coast for comfort. But that trough is strong, so that is a big plus for them on the coast.
Chris; Just some dry air being pulled into the systems as the secondary lunar tidal bulge slides back toward the equator, when the moon crosses the equator on the 26th, the primary bulge effects will start to pull these all north again.
Should be moving faster by the 27th, 28th, then powering up heading for the North Western point of it’s path by the 30th, 31st.
http://linkification.com/wx/2010/dry3.jpg
I am just shotgunning the crap out of this site today with this comment, sorry:(
Marcos
I commented yesterday that the storm was headed towards cooler water.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB514tiiw2s]
The implication being that it was not likely to turn into a huge storm.