But just barely…see Danielle in lower right of image
Latest news:
WTNT31 KNHC 250256
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010
…DANIELLE A HURRICANE AGAIN…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…18.2N 49.8W
ABOUT 795 MI…1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR…BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW…WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
Dr. Ryan Maue formerly of FSU, and Dr. Robert Hart, Professor of Meteorology at FSU maintain websites with various model graphics that allow the average meteorologist see some of what the professionals at the National Hurricane Center use to issue their long-range forecasts for Danielle — and her soon-to-be friends in her wake…
Tropical Cyclone Maps — GFS, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF updated 4-times daily
GFS, HWRF, GFDL, ECMWF wind swath maps — 0 to 180 hour forecasts + model spaghetti and animations. — updated at least 4-times daily.
Maue also daily updates the climatological ACE and year-to-date for the global basins on his Tropical Page at FSU. While the Atlantic is heating up, with the GFS forecasting 3-hurricanes at once in the next 6-days to be happily spinning in the Central Atlantic, the seasonal ACE is struggling to keep up with climo (previous 30-year average). The Western Pacific is at storm #6 (Mindulle) while Danielle is technically AL06 … and the ACE’s are roughly identical. The climo ACE in the Western Pacific is 300% that of the North Atlantic — and 2010 is so-far shaping up to be a somewhat typical La Nina summer/fall.
Isn’t the Earth supposed to have 30% cloud cover? That doesn’t look like
30% to me.
NOGAPS the movie (runs till the 30th)
http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml
Current Spaghetti;
http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12468-1282706077.png
intensity forecast models;
http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12468-1282706101.png
Funny.
You’d think they’d have better display and printer technology now than 1940’s – era teletypewriters and all cap’s …… 8<)
Richard Holle says:
August 24, 2010 at 9:10 pm
NOGAPS the movie (runs till the 30th)
http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml
==================================
I hope the NOGAPS and the GFS are not sniffing something out in the long run….
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Tomorrow it will be down to a tropical depression, to the chagrin of the pro AGW worshippers.
Decorum (and the fear of being snipped) prohibits me from saying it. However, I can let Elton John say it for me:
RACookPE1978 says:
August 24, 2010 at 9:29 pm
> You’d think they’d have better display and printer technology now than 1940′s – era teletypewriters and all cap’s …… 8<)
From http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/faq.php#caps :
Seems to me they could free all-caps versions to places that need it.
Richard deSousa says:
August 24, 2010 at 9:54 pm
Tomorrow it will be down to a tropical depression, to the chagrin of the pro AGW worshippers.
========================
No, not quite true. If it falls apart, the AGW dogma will just rewrite their creed for the day.
They will say that AGW is causing it to fall apart.
Sort of like during winter seasons, they try to have it both ways….namely it causes more snow and less snow.
Doublespeak.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
A true lady. Can’t make up her mind what to wear, should it be the tropical storm frock or perhaps the hurricane twin set dress suit with pearls?
We mere gentlemen will have to wait and see however long it takes.
Kindest Regards
savethesharks says:
August 24, 2010 at 9:53 pm
The latest run now shows that the ridge to the North develops a gap for Danielle to slip through if she wants to head NEast instead.
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical168.gif
Headed for Ireland on the 1st. Sept.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_240l.gif
Its models ya know! wait 6 hours, and the inputs changed, the output changes as well.
what a difference a day makes huh? Its close to a full moon today the tidal effect as it passes over head, is pulsing the size and development of Danielle’s wind field and growth rate. (Who would have guessed that, watch it cycle again tonight.)
Just noticed the links to Bob Hart’s FSU site above, don’t recall seeing them there when I first came in here. Save time and money go direct, I’ll quit distracting the flow of the thread.
Anthony – do you need a Tropical Cyclone Page too (as you have done for Sea Ice)?
Is it really necessary to make a special post every time somebody decides that the wind speed somewhere increased or decreased by 10 km/h ?
Following a storm in real time with 2 or 3 posts per day seems really to be an inefficient use of a science blog – it doesn’t give important news and it doesn’t lead to interesting or even relevant comments . Everybody just repeats the generalities already said 100 times during the past 3 days .
And it makes interesting posts slide faster beyond the horizon .
If this particular storm is considered as being of great interest for some reason , wouldn’t it be much more efficient to keep for few days just ONE sticky post with updates ?
Then the one liners would be just updates (f.ex at 13:00 it became H1 , at 21:00 it went back to TS etc etc) and the discussion would be kept to one post only , avoiding to clutter the whole blog .
That would be a compromise between people who want to follow a storm RL and people who find this issue completely without interest .
Just a suggestion .
Well framer John how ’bout now?
Shut it and help me find my aaaaaaaaaaaayZOMG I’m flying!
TomVonk says:
August 25, 2010 at 2:53 am
> Is it really necessary to make a special post every time somebody decides that the wind speed somewhere increased or decreased by 10 km/h ?
I mostly agree with with your comments. Give it time – for a while everyone here (well, most people, I guess) was ga-ga over every new SC24 sunspeck and now they’re ignored and a blank Sun garners one or two OT comments the latest discussion.
Perhaps if we overdose on this storm, one that has little chance of hitting land as a tropical storm, people will be exhausted and we can wait for a storm that has a chance of landfall.
One thing about the multiple posts is it does show how quickly hurricane intensity can change and that our ability to forecast the track is much better than forecasting intensity. (The track forecast for Danielle so far has been pretty simple, that will change in a couple days.)
————
I noted above:
> Seems to me they could free all-caps versions to places that need it.
Note to self – go to bed earlier. And don’t write in public with an empty glass of Cointreau nearby!
Aren’t hurricanes supposed to have an eye? Where’s the eye? I might have seen it in one frame of an animated loop but it was difficult to be sure. I guess it’s a weak CAT1, so no eye? Or am I not looking close enough?
Since it was already a hurricane once, does it now count as 2 hurricanes for the season? 😉
It’s unprecedented that a Hurricane is this erratic. Proof postive of AGW! /sarc off
If Danielle did run into Ireland as has been suggested , would this mean England would get heavier drizzle ? Cant cope with that , we are still waiting for Summer !!
At the 8 am update there’s a 100% likelihood of invest 96 becoming a tropical system. We can expect to hear all about Tropical Depression Seven within the next 30 minutes or so. Once it gets a name (Earl) will he be as fickle as the filly that preceded him?
Sure enough — TD7 it is, right on time.
Here is the Kerry Emmanuel paper where he forecast reduced frequency of hurricanes due to global warming.
ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Emanuel_etal_2008.pdf
National Hurricane Center bias. Today’s 11:00 am (EDT) discussion no. 16, estimates Danielle’s intensity at 75 kt and says the windspeed number ‘is generous’ ; meaning perhaps too high given model data from satellites. This is standard practice with NHC forecasters; making tropical storms into hurricanes with known consequences ie, preserving its own estimates. In instances where model data show a storm on the borderline for hurricane classification, why can’t NHC define the cyclone as ‘tropical storm/hurricane’ to avoid media histronics over the hurricane designation?
why can’t NHC define the cyclone as ‘tropical storm/hurricane’ to avoid media histronics
because media histronics is exactly what they want to accomplish.
“”” Sleepalot says:
August 24, 2010 at 8:27 pm
Isn’t the Earth supposed to have 30% cloud cover? That doesn’t look like
30% to me. “””
No, I believe it is supposed to be about 60%; and that photo doen’t look like 60% either.
But when you see how white and reflective it is on top; and imagine how dark and black it is underneath; you can appreciate how those clouds trap the heat, and make the water underneath warm up to supply the energy that is needed to make a hurricane work.
The famous “Earthrise” picture from the moon, gives a better idea of what the “Blue planet” more typically looks like.
Of course AlGore in his famous Nobel Prize winning book has some rare photos of planet earth duing those fleeting moments when there isn’t a single cloud anywhere on earth. Well if I took pictures like that, I too would expect to win the Nobel Prize for it..
But back at the picture in hand; I can’t tell which of those blobs is supposed to be the Hurricane/storm/whatever.
coaldust says:
August 25, 2010 at 6:14 am
Yes, under CDO – “Central dense overcast”, pretty much so (at least eye
not visible), no.
The eye is clear because air from the top of the storm sinks into the eye. The air loses moisture during convection, so as it comes down, warming evaporates any remaining clouds. The process takes some time, and the eyewall isn’t quite as
firm as it will be soon.
George E. Smith says:
August 25, 2010 at 4:21 pm
If you visit http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html (IR photo of Caribbean, plus), Danielle stand out well. The water vapor image at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html shows a heap of dry air in the way, I’d expect the NHC discussions would talk about it.
If you visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml , the “Floater” images are of active storms and can be helpful.