Guest post by David Archibald
Professor Jan-Erik Solheim of the University of Oslo recently contributed an article to the Norwegian magazine Astronomi with the title: “The Sun predicts a colder (next) decennium”. Oddbjorn Engvold, a Norwegian solar physicist, has summarised the article in English:
In the first section he refers to the earlier work by Eigil Friis-Christensen and Knud Lassen who showed a connection between the length of a solar cycle and temperature in the northern hemisphere.
The next section deals with “sunspot periods and temperatures in Norway”. He selected series of temperatures for a total of 10 locations in Norway. In these series of temperature he detected no, or hardly any, correlation between length of the sunspot cycle and temperatures averaged over the cycles. On the other hand, he found a strong dependence between the length of the sunspot cycles and the mean temperatures in the following period.
The diagrams shown on the following pages should be self explaining. The ledger at the bottom of the pages containing a map of Norway and the 10 diagrams says:
The red dots shows the measured temperatures at ten place in Norway (averaged for the sunspot periods; y-axis) and the length of the preceding sunspot periods (x-axis). The dark ellipses represent the predicted mean temperatures for the coming 11 years, while the mean measured temperatures for cycle 23 (1996-2008) are indicated with the circles.
If one trusts these findings, Solheim mentions that since the period length of previous cycle (no 23) is at least 3 years longer than for cycle no 22, the temperature is expected to decrease by 0.6 – 1.8 degrees over the following 10-12 years, relative to the mean values for period no 23.
Jan-Erik Solheim asks readers of this magazine to search for long temperature series in their home places and check whether or not the published correlation can be confirmed.
The table in the lower right on third page gives the starting years and lengths of the solar cycles from no 5 to no 24.
The final subsection discusses briefly possible explanations for the puzzling correlation that he presents here. I shall rather leave it to Jan-Erik himself discuss his ideas directly with you and others once he returns from his travel around 25 July.
It is my personal view that Jan-Erik’s results are astonishing and could potentially represent a breakthrough in our understanding of the Sun’s influence on climate.
The results that Professor Solheim got for the west coast of Norway are very similar to what Butler and Johnson found for Armagh in Northern Ireland in their 1996 paper.
I derive a steeper correlation for a number of sites in the north-eastern US, such as Hanover, New Hampshire.
Of course Norway has been at the forefront of wasting money on the global warming scare. It has been storing CO2 at the Sleipner gas field off the Norwegian coast since 1996, and more recently built another facility to waste money at Mongstad in 2008. Now comes a big whacking from the Sun.
Note: There is no English version of the article, but you can try your luck reading it here with Google Translate. Messy, but best I can do.
Also for those that wished to order Archibald’s latest book covering many of these elements, but could not, there is good news.