By Steven Goddard,
Surely the world must be coming to an end, preceded by the demise of Arctic Ice. Some of my current favorites are listed below.
PIOMASS shows that Arctic ice volume has dropped to unprecedented lows.
Ice melt has been the fastest on record.
Hottest ocean temperatures on record.
Skeptics are incompetent and unqualified.
Ultimately, the best way to make a name for oneself as a scientist is to overthrow the conventional hypothesis “but to do that it takes extraordinarily good science,” Schneider notes. Climate change contrarians have yet to do this.
(But it is OK for the IPCC to do “extraordinarily bad science.” Only 24 years till the last glacier melts in the Himalayas)
We are making bigger hurricanes.
Skeptics are Holocaust Deniers.
Less than a minute into President Obama’s Oval Office address, my heart sank. For the umpteenth time since the Gulf of Mexico oil spill began, an anxious nation was informed that Energy Secretary Steven Chu has a Nobel Prize. Obama’s speech pretty much went down hill from there.
Nobel Prize winner Al Gore has been busy with masseuses of late. This seems to have slowed down his activities to save the planet, just when his planet is screaming out to him.
She said she was intimidated by his physical size, calling him “rotund,” described his “violent temper, dictatorial, commanding attitude” — what she termed a contrast from his “Mr. Smiley global-warming concern persona.”
and IPCC lead Dr Pachauri has been busy writing porn novels, when not publishing other fiction.
Surely, with ice at a record low volume, at record hot temperatures, with record decline of ice, the hottest sea surface temperatures ever, and the oceans turning acidic – we must be headed for a nearly ice-free Arctic this summer. Anyone who has been touting these undeniable facts from the leading experts, must be willing to sign up for a huge record minimum. Like Wilson, who is predicting 1.0 million km². What are you waiting for? If you believe all this stuff, Wilson is your man.
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2010/june
Wilson (No organization provided); 1.0 Million Square Kilometers; Statistical and Heuristic 2007’s El Nino did three things to melt off 40% of ice volume relative to 2006: (1) 2007 was hot, 2010 was more so; December was the highest monthly anomaly ever, February was 4th highest, March 10th highest, April 7th highest and the warmest April ever
I wonder if Lewis Pugh is getting his kayak ready again?
30 August 2008
This year, for the first time, scientists predict that the North Pole could briefly be ice free and that has inspired Mr Pugh to try to find a way through….”Nobody has ever attempted to kayak to the pole before. In fact, it would have been impossible last year because it was frozen over,” he said.
It should be an easy trip, because the New York Times reported 10 years ago that the North Pole had already melted, like the Wicked Witch Of The West :
Ages-Old Icecap at North Pole Is Now Liquid, Scientists Find
By JOHN NOBLE WILFORD Published: August 19, 2000
The thick ice that has for ages covered the Arctic Ocean at the pole has turned to water, recent visitors there reported yesterday. At least for the time being, an ice-free patch of ocean about a mile wide has opened at the very top of the world, something that has presumably never before been seen by humans and is more evidence that global warming may be real and already affecting climate. The last time scientists can be certain the pole was awash in water was more than 50 million years ago.
Not to mention that the New York Times predicted an ice free Arctic over 40 years ago. After they predicted an ice age 80 years ago. And before Time Magazine predicted an Ice Age in 1974.
Hopefully this is all perfectly clear. “Just Do It”
Apparently getting headlines is more important than thinking.
I, for one, welcome our new climate overlords!
Great compilation Steven.
Button and Badge ideas can be found here:
http://sweasel.com/archives/6403#comment-50440
Inconvenient Proof has a ring to it and humor seems logical.
Some attempts at humor:
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4121/4739377148_b1a014bc3c_b.jpg
Make some more suggestions when you get a chance.
http://www.globalwarmingskeptics.info/forums/thread-14-post-5454.html#pid5454
He he…,
how quickly they forget their own regular complaint against the skeptics stating that there has been a cooling trend since 2001 or something like that.They would comeback with something like this,there MUST be at least 30 years long temperature record before we can say if it is a cooling trend or not.
But a 4 month trend proves everything in their minds.
To summarize:
Thus it MUST be 30 years before we can say there is a cooling trend.
But it is perfectly fine to claim 1-5 months time period and prove that there is a powerful warming trend going on.
ROFLMAO!
These AGW boys are amusing to say the least.
They think only about warming trends,the cooling trends are just numbers and nothing more in the AGW camp.What a myopic view they have.
What a load of horse feathers.
Here’s a good headline grabbing prediction:
Science Daily:
Scientific Expertise Lacking Among ‘Doubters’ of Climate Change, Says New Analysis
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/06/100625185428.htm
The bogus study grabs for headlines.
“All the news that will fit we print” (Truth optional)
The Ny Ålesund Symposium got prime time coverage on Norwegian TV – no wonder with the Crown Prince and foreign ministers being the hosts. Of course, it was all about the “rapid changes in the Arctic”, and nobody mentioned that the Arctic has been warming before. Take for instance Jan Mayen, between Greenland and Svalbard, which has a very long record in the GISS data set: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=634010010003&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
The linear trend for the 1921 – 2008 period was still negative, only in 2009 it turned flat…
It’s very striking how very intelligent they think they are, or is it want to be seen as perhaps?
Since when did any rational person ever use ever with a reference line that isn’t even 30 years in length in time?
The color red really gives contrast to the other colors though, but I’m not going to become a “true” believer anytime soon just because -54.4 is deemed more normal than -54.2, especially with less than 30 years of real consistent measuring.
Its worse than we thought folks!
The polar regions on that temp picture look very red indeed, it looks like the arctic is burning up doesnt it?
Hmmm, remind us again just how many stations it took to cover the entire top of the picture deepest red and what is the difference in temperature between the colour red and the colour blue?
How long do the models tell us we have before we all catch fire and drown?
PNP: Post Normal Propaganda
Perhaps Chu and Gore should have obelisks raised w/AGW heiroglyphics.
There’s a Green Job idea. Need straw and mud too.
FIFA needs instant replays. Half of their referees are incompetent. Mexico added to the long list of countries who have gotten robbed at the World Cup.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa2.jpg
Look! The North Pole is awash with water!
(OK if you look at the archive pictures the melt ponds only appeared a few days ago)
yes, we arer all going to die!..But not today and not because of CAGW!
yes, we are all going to die!..But not today and not because of CAGW!
Nobel Prize winner Steven Chu – Obama’s Nobel Prize winning science advisor. Did I mention that he has a Nobel Prize?
Nobel Prize winner Al Gore
Nobel Prize winner and IPCC lead Dr Pachauri
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
How important is the Nobel Prize? Richard Feynman has a thought on that:
Long-distance swimmer Lewis Pugh plans to kayak 1200km (745 miles) to the North Pole to raise awareness of how global warming has melted the ice sheet.
You can kayak on top of ice? I thought it was done in water. Must be that new kayaking.
Not to mention that the New York Times predicted an ice free Arctic over 40 years ago. After they predicted an ice age 80 years ago. And before Time Magazine predicted an Ice Age in 1974.
Excellent synopsis!!
This is slightly off topic, but there’s so much talk about GISS data being unreliable because they extrapolate the polar temperatures from only a few stations. Does anyone know how the Danish meteorological institute (dmi) calculate their mean temps north of 80N? If this has been discussed in another thread, perhaps someone could point it out to me.
Aren’t rotted ice believers concerned that the blue 2010 line is on a collision course with the dashed 2007 green line?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
Red rover, red rover send 2010 right over!
It’s a good thing 2007 is a dashed line that will allow the blue line through or it would cause a wicked break. Thick ice is pretty much indomitable and anything in its path is crushed. And 2010 ice is thick!
Ramp up the hogwash, the empire strikes back, the alarmists now on the high ground of righteousness and with God and Mammon on their side, how could they lose?
Er………just one thing,,,,,”What’s that?”
“No one told the earth (panic!)…………. it’s not warming!”
The new putsche will not be deflected, the Chicago Carbon Exchange must go ahead, the Goldman Sachs boys say so!
Conspiracy? YOU betcha!
The Terrifying PIOMAS Arctic Ice Volume Anomaly (and trend) chart, last updated on June 18, continues its precipitous decline.
Dropping. Like. A. Brick.
It is unprecedented. Really. Because it is dead straight, a continuous rate, going straight down. The volume had peaked around January/February (near as I can eyeball on that graph) then the Arctic began losing volume as IARC-JAXA continued to show the extent increasing. The highest extent was on March 31, which is about when the current even-sharper decline started.
That’s a large chart to begin with, and I have stared at it at 400% zoom. That line is straight. There are some periods of decline that look like they may have a similar average rate. But for this one, there are no bumps, no zig-zags. It is a monotonic constant-slope dead-straight line, period, even after around three months have passed. By that chart, the Arctic was losing volume while growing extent, then after maximum extent it started this very long line, over a long period, and someone just looking at that segment alone would conclude it is a simple graph of a linear equation with time as the variable.
The absolute straightness of that line for that long on that graph is unprecedented. The Arctic sea ice Chanters of Doom gleefully point to that chart as fulfillment of the prophesies they have embraced. They do not question that line, they accept it without doubt or reservation. And that is a travesty. 😉
SKEPTICS ON CLIMATE CHANGE SHOWN TO HAVE LESS EXPERTISE IN SCIENCE
Posted June 27, 2010
Editor – Those scientists who believe human contribution to climate change is insignificant have far less professional background in climate research compared with scientists who are convinced, according to a study led by Stanford researchers.
http://greenheritagenews.com/entries/environment/skeptics-on-climate-change-shown-to-have-less-expertise-in-science
People that confuse newspaper articles with careful analysis will be sorely disappointed:
No wonder Steven is in a foul mood. He believed the hype.
Here’s an example of careful analysis:
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Data%20sources/Perovic%20ice%20cover.pdf
There was an extraordinarily large amount of ice
bottom melting in the Beaufort Sea region in the summer of
2007. Solar radiation absorbed in the upper ocean provided
more than adequate heat for this melting. An increase in the
open water fraction resulted in a 500% positive anomaly in
solar heat input to the upper ocean, triggering an ice–albedo
feedback and contributing to the accelerating ice retreat.
The melting in the Beaufort Sea has elements of a classic
ice–albedo feedback signature: more open water leads to
more solar heat absorbed, which results in more melting and
more open water. The positive ice–albedo feedback can
accelerate the observed reduction in Arctic sea ice.
Arctic amplification – look into it.
Or watch it unfold, slowly, this summer.
http://www.solarnavigator.net/inventors/albert_einstein.htm
Einstein worked in this patent office from 1902 to 1909, holding a temporary post when he was first appointed, but by 1904 the position was made permanent and in 1906 he was promoted to technical expert second class. While in the Bern patent office he completed an astonishing range of theoretical physics publications, written in his spare time without the benefit of close contact with scientific literature or colleagues.
Ralph says:
June 27, 2010 at 2:13 pm
Stanford researchers
Stephen Schneider is from Stanford. No surprise this comes from Stanford.
The Communists, when in power, pushed lies down the peoples’ throats, hiding the truth all the way.
Climate Change Alarmists, politicians and their cronies in the MSM, currently in power, are pushing lies down the peoples’ throats, hiding declines, coolings, thick ice in the N_Pole and a record sea-ice cover in the S_Pole and other truths.
I am not sure why this is not being given the right exposure: The S_Pole has been afflicted, since mid-May, with a cold spell and a record sea-ice cover never seen before by satellites.
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png
Communism collapsed in a few months.
Climate Change Alarmism is crumbling fast.
I am seeing a correlation between the way communism collapsed and the way the alarmists are acting to prop up the collapsing political stage/gravy train.
Amino Acids in Meteorites
‘How important is the Nobel Prize?’
Not very any longer. They have changed the criteria numerous times since Alfred Nobel put pen to paper. If I remember correctly it was supposed to be for young people and their “good but non violent” doings that would or really could benefit rest of society, not old farts who have to wait until they get even older farts. The peace price has of course become a bogus construction of peace incentive rather than peace itself–it’s become more important to say you want a decrease in the numbers of bombs rather than actually reducing the number of bombs and if you’re a horrible enough person to say so… LoL that should’ve been obvious with the nominations of the likes of Hitler and Stalin, they too just wanted people to leave them be in peace.
Regarding Al’s masseuse, her name was Antarctica and she was indeed HOT. But Al wouldn’t cool it so …. sorry, just can’t resist. File this under silly.
Anu
The term coined by Hansen was “polar amplification” not “Arctic amplification.” Since Hansen first wrote about it nearly 30 years ago, Antarctic temperatures have dropped steadily.
Alarmists have disowned Antarctica, except for a few thousand square kilometres on the Peninsula located on an active volcanic ridge.
Alex the skeptic
Thanks for the link. It will going in this week’s sea ice news.
She said she was intimidated by his physical size, calling him “rotund,” described his “violent temper, dictatorial, commanding attitude” — what she termed a contrast from his “Mr. Smiley global-warming concern persona.”
Well, now we know why Tipper reached her ‘tipping point’ with him …
1DandyTroll says:
June 27, 2010 at 2:53 pm
Amino Acids in Meteorites
‘How important is the Nobel Prize?’
“Not very any longer…. The peace price has of course become a bogus construction of peace incentive rather than peace itself–it’s become more important to say you want a decrease in the numbers of bombs rather than actually reducing the number of bombs and if you’re a horrible enough person to say so… LoL that should’ve been obvious with the nominations of the likes of Hitler and Stalin, they too just wanted people to leave them be in peace.”
It seems that nominations that did not result in the award of the Nobel Peace Prize are not as important as some of those that did. Consider these examples:
2009, Barack H. Obama
2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr.
2001, United Nations (U.N.) , Kofi Annan
1994, Yasser Arafat, Shimon Peres, Yitzhak Rabin
1992, Rigoberta Menchú Tum
1989, The 14th Dalai Lama (Tenzin Gyatso)
1978, Mohamed Anwar al-Sadat, Menachem Begin
1973, Henry A. Kissinger, Le Duc Tho
1926, Aristide Briand, Gustav Stresemann
Source: http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/
Anyway, one consolation is that the fit for Al Gore is no worse than that for some of the others on the list.
“Surely the world must be coming to an end…” = More Climate Ca$h for the climate “scientists”!
Remember that in 2009 our climate scientist friends had their snouts in the government stimulus trough to the tune of millions of dollars, all while our economy tanked. They’ve now squandered their stimulus funds and therefore seek more Climate Ca$h to refill their troughs. What better way than to gin up more hysterical media press releases!
Headlines correlate to the PDO cycle…at least that is the impression I get from the following:
http://butnowyouknow.wordpress.com/those-who-fail-to-learn-from-history/climate-change-timeline/
The colour coding is fun.
“…She said she was intimidated by his physical size, calling him “rotund…”
Now, now! Rotund implies sphericity. Al is not spherical; he’s more prolate, like a…a great big watermelon.
“…She said she was intimidated by his physical size, calling him “rotund…”
I think she meant robust 😉 .
Only when we look back at some of the alarmist nonsense on both warming and ice-age since 1815 do we see a cycle of man-made climate alarm:
Ice age fears
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914,00.html
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,945635,00.html
(150 of global warming and cooling fears)
http://newsbusters.org/node/11640
(1895-2008 warming and cooling fears)
http://www.almanac.com/sites/new.almanac.com/files/1895_cvr1_0.png
(numerous new ice-age articles from 1970s)
http://anotherviewonclimate.wordpress.com/2010/01/15/time-announces-approaching-ice-age/
My favorite headline of the last few months:
“World to end, blame Fox News” !
stevengoddard,
More interesting than a phrase that Dr. Hansen might or might not have used 30 years ago are the measurements concerning the bottom melting of sea ice: autonomous ice mass balance buoys were deployed in the sea ice cover as part of the North Pole Environmental Observatory, the Beaufort Gyre Environmental Observatory, and the Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies Program. These buoys monitor changes in snow deposition and ablation, ice growth, and ice surface and bottom melt.
Figure 2c shows the measured values of bottom melt, from an ice mass balance buoy drifting in the Beaufort Sea, of 11 cm/day in late August.
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Data%20sources/Perovic%20ice%20cover.pdf
WUWT talk about winds and currents and “ice compaction” miss this important part of the Arctic summer melt. Losing ice out the Fram Strait varies from year to year, but the Arctic ice is clearly trending down:
http://www.ifm.zmaw.de/fileadmin/files/images/research/remote_sensing/sea_ice_RS/FSVolFlux/MothlyVolFlux.png
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
All that record-breaking open water is absorbing heat from the Sun and melting the adjacent sea ice from below.
July will probably be a good time for “skeptics” to start ignoring the Arctic and concentrate on other topics that “prove” their worldview. Perhaps Al Gore will have an affair with a golf pro – that could supply blog fodder for two months or so.
Walter Schneider says:
June 27, 2010 at 4:23 pm
It is difficult to defend some of the Nobel Peace Prize winners, e.g. the terrorist Menachem Begin, leader of the militant right wing group Irgun, responsible for the King David Hotel bombing which killed 91 and wounded 46:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_David_Hotel_bombing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irgun
Of course, one mans “terrorist” is another mans “hero”, as Nelson Mandela has pointed out.
Martin Luther King Jr. was lucky to win his Peace Prize at a young age, before he was murdered at age 39. Mohandas Ghandi was not so lucky, even though he wasn’t murdered until age 78.
Probably the most deserving winner was the woman who won in 1966 and again in 1972. But a close second is Le Duc Tho, the only person who refused to accept his “Peace” prize, pointing out quite correctly that there was no Peace in Vietnam (this was 1973). Henry Kissinger, who didn’t have to live in Vietnam, had no such reservations, and was happy to accept his half of the Prize.
Anu
It should be obvious that sunlight warmed water can only melt ice which is very local. i.e. It doesn’t melt ice 100 km away, and the Arctic summer is very short.
The ice edge is determined by the wind, not the sun.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
June 27, 2010 at 2:11 pm
“…There are someThat’s a large chart to begin with, and I have stared at it at 400% zoom…. The absolute straightness of that line for that long on that graph is unprecedented. The Arctic sea ice Chanters of Doom gleefully point to that chart as fulfillment of the prophesies they have embraced. They do not question that line, they accept it without doubt or reservation. And that is a travesty.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The travesty is you analising a graph using your computer zoom, decidedly bizarre. Just download the daily readings, make a day to day graph, see the wriggles in the line and discover that the average is a straight line. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
I note that some are drawn to the World Cup soccer in the comments. May I propose organising a match between 2 international teams; the Alarmists and The Skeptics, to be held on the North Pole, at summer solstice asap. If we wait too long, they may have to be water-polo teams.
Alex the skeptic says:
June 27, 2010 at 2:38 pm
“….The Communists, when in power, pushed lies down the peoples’ throats, hiding the truth all the way.
Climate Change Alarmists, politicians and their cronies in the MSM, currently in power, are pushing lies down the peoples’ throats, hiding declines, coolings, thick ice in the N_Pole and a record sea-ice cover in the S_Pole and other truths.
Communism collapsed in a few months.
Climate Change Alarmism is crumbling fast.
I am seeing a correlation between the way communism collapsed and the way the alarmists are acting to prop up the collapsing political stage/gravy train….”
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Have you shared your delusion with Christopher Moncton?
North of 43 and south of 44 says:
June 27, 2010 at 6:28 pm
“…She said she was intimidated by his physical size, calling him “rotund…”
I think she meant robust 😉 .
Maybe we should take to referring to him as ‘His Robust Robustness’ …
Out of sight, out of ear shot, real science procedes without fanfare, little noticed, little understood, unimagined mini-steps gradually move toward understanding and discovery. In the press, on the tube, hacks and quacks procede with fanfare, greatly noticed, clearly understood, their lies and political giant steps swiftly move toward power and treasure.
Life’s a beach! Be careful who and what you believe, and how deep you go.
Curious Yellow
We are a week past the solstice and the ice at the North Pole is about three metres thick. You seem a bit confused.
I note a few Koolade drinkers have migrated from the Guardian CIFGreen blog. Someone must have told them to go forth and be missionaries for George the Moonbat – God knows he needs all the support he can get after making such an ass of himself over ‘Africagate’. No reply has appeared to the comments re ‘Africagate’ by Mssrs Dellingpole and Booker.
Roald says:
Does anyone know how the Danish meteorological institute (dmi) calculate their mean temps north of 80N?
Nobody seems to have answered this yet. If you look at the DMI pages, they write that it’s based on the ECMWF numerical weather prediction model (in different versions, from January in their new very high resolution version). I’m not a meteorologist, but as far as I can understand from the explanation here this model uses heterogenous sources, but most of it comes from satellites. Hope this helps a little! (Maybe Anthony or other meteorologists can explain better and more)
Curious Yellow says:
June 28, 2010 at 3:34 am
[–snip for brevity–]
The travesty is you analising a graph using your computer zoom, decidedly bizarre. Just download the daily readings, make a day to day graph, see the wriggles in the line and discover that the average is a straight line.
So then, if someone does something out of the ordinary, but which in no way affects the facts of the matter, why they are to be derided?
And what about what the ice was doing say 50 years ago, or 100, or 300, or 1000?
That’s not relevant? Only today’s data is? Is it your thought that only today —or only the most recent history— matters?
Curious Yellow says:
June 28, 2010 at 3:50 am
I note that some are drawn to the World Cup soccer in the comments. May I propose organising a match between 2 international teams; the Alarmists and The Skeptics, to be held on the North Pole, at summer solstice asap. If we wait too long, they may have to be water-polo teams.
Well, you see? Right off the bat you’ve both mislabeled yourself, and mischaracterized your opponents, the Skeptics.
You would be more correct to label your team as the ‘Propagandists,’ inasmuch as they endeavor to present skewed information, and resort to repeating the same tired pablum as if doing such will make it become the truth of the matter. And your mascot should be T.D. Lysenko.
Now, the Skeptics might take you up on your offer, but only after there has been a sufficient period of investigation using REAL SCIENCE ™ as opposed to ‘nature tricks’ regarding the thickness of the ice and the location of the game.
Alexander K says:
June 28, 2010 at 7:08 am
I note a few Koolade drinkers have migrated from the Guardian CIFGreen blog. Someone must have told them to go forth and be missionaries for George the Moonbat …
______________________________________________________________________
One hopes that at least some have the intelligence to actually see what is said here at WUWT. From some of the comments I have seen at neutral blogs, luke-warmers wandering onto WUWT are very surprised that it is not the “unscientific” kook blog they have been lead to believe it is, and that it compares quite favorably to Realclimate.
From: Curious Yellow on June 28, 2010 at 3:34 am
Another travesty (a real one) is in your rush to criticize you have supplied a link to the IARC-JAXA extent data (which I already have in a spreadsheet w/ graphs) when I was talking about the PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume anomaly chart. If you have a link to the PIOMAS numbers that are being graphed then supply it. Without it, staring at that graph is about the best and fastest method I have for getting PIOMAS info.
“Curious Yellow says:
June 28, 2010 at 3:50 am
I note that some are drawn to the World Cup soccer in the comments. May I propose organising a match between 2 international teams; the Alarmists and The Skeptics, to be held on the North Pole, at summer solstice asap. If we wait too long, they may have to be water-polo teams.”
It might surprise you but ice-free leads at the north pole in summer are nothing unusual.
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
See also
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead_(sea_ice)
Last year during the Modoki, we in the North Central did not get to the 2300 degree days to mature the corn. Rough luck in late rain and cool temps left much of the crops north of say, 43 degrees latitude, were left in the fields.
This year we’re 48 degree days behind near the end of June. Climate certainly has its effect, but last year’s pattern and this are different, yet the same result in this one effect.
So where’s the heat? April was hot but May and June not.
stevengoddard says:
June 27, 2010 at 9:08 pm
Anu
It should be obvious that sunlight warmed water can only melt ice which is very local. i.e. It doesn’t melt ice 100 km away, and the Arctic summer is very short.
Except of course that the Arctic sea ice is warmed by Atlantic water flowing under the ice.
Nice try Phil
http://www.wsag.unh.edu/arctic/project.summary.html
“Since the water masses beneath the Arctic Ocean surface waters are warmer than the surface waters in contact with the polar ice, the maintenance of the physical separation provided by the stratification provided by saltier layers below is essential to the existence of the permanent polar ice cover. Without this permanent stratification, the ice cover would melt. This would greatly affect the climate of the polar regions because the ice reflects much more of the incoming solar radiation than seawater.”
stevengoddard says:
June 28, 2010 at 6:47 am
Curious Yellow
We are a week past the solstice and the ice at the North Pole is about three metres thick. You seem a bit confused.
Hmm, the measured thickness at Camp Barneo at the beginning of April was 1.6m.
stevengoddard says:
June 28, 2010 at 10:17 am
Nice try Phil
http://www.wsag.unh.edu/arctic/project.summary.html
“Since the water masses beneath the Arctic Ocean surface waters are warmer than the surface waters in contact with the polar ice, the maintenance of the physical separation provided by the stratification provided by saltier layers below is essential to the existence of the permanent polar ice cover. Without this permanent stratification, the ice cover would melt. This would greatly affect the climate of the polar regions because the ice reflects much more of the incoming solar radiation than seawater.”
Nice Cherry picking Steve.
According to Maslowski (my emphasis):
“Oceanic heat advection has contributed significant forcing (>60%)
to sea ice melt during the last decade
4. CCSM3/HadGEM1 (and potentially many other GCMs) simulations
compared to NPS and observational estimates:
a) have too weak northward heat fluxes through Bering / Chukchi seas,
which explains why they have too much ice in the western Arctic
b) have too weak northward and recirculating fluxes at Fram Strait, which
allow too much ice in the Greenland Sea
c) simulate too much volume and heat flux through the Barents Sea and
try to melt the sea ice cover from the eastern side
which is why their predictions are too conservative”
Someone suggested recently I should read something at Logical Science (which has a cute “A Rundown of the Skeptics & Deniers” set of lists BTW). Well, it used to be a Blogger (Blogspot) site, on which I found this wonderful past prophesy of ARCTIC DOOM:
Out of the twelve comments, of which the last ten are spam, we have this wonderful reply to an “Oh, please!” comment:
Sadly the apparent sheer wrongness of this prophesy is not unprecedented.
Oh well, two years to go. They might still get lucky. 🙂
Phil,
According to Maslowski, the Arctic will be ice free in three years.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Phil. says:
June 28, 2010 at 11:31 am
stevengoddard says:
June 28, 2010 at 6:47 am
Curious Yellow
We are a week past the solstice and the ice at the North Pole is about three metres thick. You seem a bit confused.
Hmm, the measured thickness at Camp Barneo at the beginning of April was 1.6m.
About as thick as your skull, eh, Phil? 🙂
Phil. says:
June 28, 2010 at 11:45 am
[–snip for brevity–]Nice Cherry picking Steve.
According to Maslowski (my emphasis):
“Oceanic heat advection has contributed significant forcing (>60%)
to sea ice melt during the last decade
4. CCSM3/HadGEM1 (and potentially many other GCMs) simulations
compared to NPS and observational estimates:
a) have too weak northward heat fluxes through Bering / Chukchi seas,
which explains why they have too much ice in the western Arctic
b) have too weak northward and recirculating fluxes at Fram Strait, which
allow too much ice in the Greenland Sea
c) simulate too much volume and heat flux through the Barents Sea and
try to melt the sea ice cover from the eastern side
which is why their predictions are too conservative”
Phil,
What happens to the polar sea water, when the polar ice melts?
HINT: Heat exchange.
If the polar waters cool sufficiently as a result of the melting ice, how much more sunlight will be needed to bring those waters back to equilibrium?
And you can’t resort to CO2 since it is ~already~ absorbed by the ice and the water.
Catch 22 time: IF CO2 were to any kind of agent for so-called CAGW, then the ice would have all melted by this time, and the waters would be roiling!
Any agent which facilitates energy transfer, will exhibit a coequal ability to either heat or cool.
HINT #2: CO2 isn’t a diode, nor does it react as one.
Re: stevengoddard on June 28, 2010 at 12:09 pm
Interesting contrasts between this and the piece I dug up:
December 11, 2007: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
December 12, 2007: Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
December 12, 2007:
December 11, 2007:
Ah, the difference a day makes. 🙂
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
June 28, 2010 at 12:49 pm
[–snip for brevity–]
Ah, the difference a day makes. 🙂
You have to wonder if those characters aren’t reading from a script …
Excerpt from: stevengoddard on June 28, 2010 at 6:47 am
Steven, FWIW Topaz (Nansen) currently shows (June 28 map) the North Pole right on a dividing line, roughly the 0-180° line, by eyeball it looks like 1.7 meters currently, when zoomed in you could argue it’s 1.9 m. It’s also showing some seriously thick ice at the edges (scale maxes out at 3 meters) I presume offhand where you said the compaction would be.
Comparing with the zoomed-in PIPS map, I can see similar features that match up, the 0-180° line is there, and what looks like the 2.75 m shade of green could be at the North Pole.
However, it is also arguable, up close to the pole, whether or not Topaz and PIPS are agreeing as to which side of 0-180° the thicker ice is on. My, this ice thickness modeling stuff can get tricky. 🙂
Teleconnected ice?