NIWA's Kiwi Kaper

http://weblog.greenpeace.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/cilamte-kiwi.jpg

One of Greenpeace New Zealand's pitches

It should be noted that NIWA is not the official Meteorological Service of New Zealand. From their FAQs:  Is NIWA the Met Service?

No, the MetService is a separate company which can be found at www.metservice.com. NIWA does perform climate prediction and monitoring services, however, but these are more long term.

and…NIWA is a Crown Research Institute, established in 1992. It operates as a stand-alone company with its own Board of Directors and Executive.

– Anthony

Crisis in New Zealand climatology

by Barry Brill

May 15, 2010

The warming that wasn’t

The official archivist of New Zealand’s climate records, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), offers top billing to its 147-year-old national mean temperature series (the “NIWA Seven-station Series” or NSS). This series shows that New Zealand experienced a twentieth-century warming trend of 0.92°C.

The official temperature record is wrong. The instrumental raw data correctly show that New Zealand average temperatures have remained remarkably steady at 12.6°C +/- 0.5°C for a century and a half. NIWA’s doctoring of that data is indefensible.

The NSS is the outcome of a subjective data series produced by a single Government scientist, whose work has never been peer-reviewed or subjected to proper quality checking. It was smuggled into the official archive without any formal process. It is undocumented and sans metadata, and it could not be defended in any court of law. Yet the full line-up of NIWA climate scientists has gone to extraordinary lengths to support this falsified warming and to fiercely attack its critics.

For nearly 15 years, the 20th-century warming trend of 0.92°C derived from the NSS has been at the centre of NIWA official advice to all tiers of New Zealand Government – Central, Regional and Local. It informs the NIWA climate model. It is used in sworn expert testimony in Environment Court hearings. Its dramatic graph graces the front page of NIWA’s printed brochures and its website.

Internationally, the NSS 0.92°C trend is a foundation stone for the Australia-New Zealand Chapter in the IPCC’s Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. In 1994, it was submitted to HadleyCRUT, so as to influence the vast expanses of the South Pacific in the calculation of globally-averaged temperatures.

The Minister of Research Science and Technology, the Hon Dr Wayne Mapp, has finally become alarmed at the murky provenance of the NSS. The Government has directed and funded a 6-month project to produce a new national temperature record, with published data and transparent processes. The replacement record is to be the subject of a scientific paper, which is to be peer-reviewed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Hon Rodney Hide, a climate sceptic who is a Minister in the current Government and leader of the junior coalition partner, the ACT Party, has called upon his ministerial colleagues to formally repudiate the NSS and to withdraw all publications and formal papers which are based on the spurious warming trend of 0.92°C. The Government has not yet responded to this challenge.

New Zealand is a small country, with a strong tradition of open Government, and is not an easy place to keep secrets. The acceptance of the NSS for so long offers evidence of the dictum: “you can fool all of the people some of the time..” But if that can happen in New Zealand, how much greater is the probability that similar shenanigans could be happening in larger, more complex, jurisdictions?

BACKGROUND

The New Zealand Meteorological Service, with its forebears, has been measuring and recording our weather since 1861. In 1992, it published a booklet containing a detailed history of all its weather stations, along with 140 years of climate data. In that year, NIWA came into being and has now published most of the Met Service data online.

In 2007, the then Prime Minister announced her party’s intention that New Zealand should lead the world in fighting climate change, and aim to be the world’s first carbon-neutral country by 2025.

Earlier in 2007, NIWA produced a web page, followed by a printed brochure, with a graph showing that New Zealand had already warmed by an amount far in excess of global averages. The web page claimed a temperature increase of 1.1C during the 144 years of Met Service records, and a 0.92°C trend during the 20th century.

These are remarkable claims. They came out of the blue and do not accord with any written histories, or the personal impressions of our older generations. They don’t square with “hottest day” records held in provinces and city archives. They were not accompanied by big changes in rainfall or winds or sea levels. In these claims, NIWA is a very lonely orphan.

Read the entire substantial essay here at Quadrant Online

h/t to WUWT reader A C Osborn

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
kim

Partisan thermometrics.
===============

kim

Through the Thermometer Glass.
==================

H.R.

“[…] For nearly 15 years, the 20th-century warming trend of 0.92°C derived from the NSS has been at the centre of NIWA official advice to all tiers of New Zealand Government – Central, Regional and Local. It informs the NIWA climate model. […]”
(Emphasis mine.) So any claims that “the models agree” with observed data is an indictment of the models. Tsk, tsk, tsk.

geo

Good grief. That makes Phil Jones look like a careful and conscientous documentarian!
In northern Iowa this morning for some surfacestation hunting!
[REPLY – Great! Be SURE to include measurements from pavement or buildings, and if possible, make the shots include all such heat sources/sinks with the station visible. I’ll be having to add a Google Earth measurement view to any surveys you make, and it can be very difficult without all that. But you are an old hand at this, so this is just a reminder. Thanks, and happy hunting. There’s nothing more exhilarating than that initial spot! ~ Evan]

Baa Humbug

Peer reviewed by the Australian BoM? You got to be kidding. That’s like appointing Bernie Maedoff to audit the Enron accounts. What a crooked joke.

PJP

Absolutely amazing.
Why is it, that even in developed countries, a single individual can get away with manipulating “official” records so dramatically and for so long, and government policy be blindly driven by this forged data?
We have seen it in the UK, we see it in the US and now in NZ.

Gary Pearse

A compact country like NZ is an ideal place to choose as a control on a science out of control. The big problem in climatology is impatience. There is no need to alter historical records at all except to insist on quality siting. If there is warming of significant amount the record will show it to us without fudging, fiddling and trying to tease out of the data more than is in there. Same with sea level. It’s fine to manipulate data for research purposes and for speculation on what may be, but it’s unacceptable to alter the official records. To do that is like altering the genetic code to make a match with that of a suspect in a crime.

stan stendera

I wonder if Dr. Salinger is any relation to J. D. Salinger, the famous FICTION writer.

Adam Gallon

“Internationally, the NSS 0.92°C trend is a foundation stone for the Australia-New Zealand Chapter in the IPCC’s Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. In 1994, it was submitted to HadleyCRUT, so as to influence the vast expanses of the South Pacific in the calculation of globally-averaged temperatures.”
Take that 0.92°C trend out of HadCRUT and what happens?

geo

Hahaha. Good point, H. R. Wanna bet that if forced to remove the influence that somehow that model will end up with roughly the same results anyway? These people may be zealots, but they’re intelligent zealots and they’ll figure out a way to get where they want to go anyway!

Jeff L

Makes you wonder what other shennanigans are going on with other data sets. With the AGW issue being so political, it is hard to trust at face value any data sets presented by government entities

We should have more sunlight, the world’s best disinfectant.

Just how many wheels does this wagon have? Surely there cannot be many left to fall off.
Expect to see this splashed all over the MSM as New Scientist claim happens … not!

A C Osborn

My concern when I highlighted this to Anthony was do with the Global Temperature asa well as the sheer arrogance of what was doen here.
Is New Zealands Temp series used for any fo the surrounding “Grid Bins”?

old construction worker

tarpon says:
May 15, 2010 at 7:07 am
‘We should have more sunlight, the world’s best disinfectant’
I’m going to push for more sunshine laws. If it takes putting audio and video recording devices in very hook and cranny in every corner of every room in Washington, so be it. There will be so much light it will make the streets of London look like the dark side of the moon.

jaymam

NIWA have since named a different list of nine mainland stations “with long-term records where no significant site changes have occurred” and challenged anyone to download the data which is available on the NIWA site..
Here are the 9am temperatures at those stations from 1960 onward (there’s no data earlier). There is a slight downward trend.
http://i40.tinypic.com/353dra9.jpg
Here are GISS temperatures for Auckland Airport from 1880 to 1990.
There is an insignificant trend.
http://i43.tinypic.com/643tba.jpg

Something the article didn’t mention is that one of the stations in the NIWA Seven Station Series is dropped from the NASA GISS product because GISS can’t do there UHI correction on it. This was something I stumbled across months ago when I found Auckland NZ had no final adjusted output from GISS even though it is in the station list for stations used by them. I sent an Email to GISS and got areply back from Dr. Rudy about that station and why GISS doesn’t use it:

You found one of the 284 urban or peri-urban stations that were droppedin our homogenization procedure because there was not a sufficientlylong overlap of its record with a combination of at least 3 ruralneighbors.
There are 2 rural neighbors within 500 km and a third one within 1000km. The overlap of the combination of those 3 records and the Aucklandrecord was 19 years, just 1 year short of the 20-year limit that ourprocedure requires. Non-rural stations whose trend cannot be adjusted to match their ruralneighbors are dropped. The effect is similar to using only ruralstations to find the global temperature trend.
Thank you for your interest in our web site.
Reto

Amazing how NIWA thinks that is a good station to use but even GISS doesn’t use it because it can’t be properly adjusted.

latitude

“Take that 0.92°C trend out of HadCRUT and what happens?”
poof
Then they would have to explain the trend going down.

bubbagyro

PJP says:
May 15, 2010 at 6:44 am
The governments are not blind. Their key people have horses in that race.
This just shows how the deletion of monitoring stations is so dangerous. Just one perpetrator in a grid can alter, using “interpolation” algorithms, all the data sets in the world.
I wish we could have a benefactor to set up monitoring stations in the many remote “holes” that have become so critical. Here’s where Bill Gates could put some of his “mad money” to good use.
I would place improved Stevenson screens at slightly higher altitude, away from the ground effects, fully automated, taking readings every few seconds, and with satellite radio then reporting to a secure server. I’m sure it’s been thought of.
Maybe then, perhaps, climatologers can begin to be climatologists again.

Henry chance

Post modern math. You can draw the slope from a single point. When I grew up, (the olden days) it took two points to create a line and see the slope.

jaymam

Here’s Auckland NZ Decadal Average Temperature by Month (a Willis type graph) – -data ex GISS
http://i41.tinypic.com/311ur2t.jpg
1950 was the highest decade between 1881 and 1993 (the only data at GISS). 1990 was the lowest in June.

stan stendera

I’m going to recomment.
I wonder if Dr. Salinger is any relation to J. D. Salinger, the famous FICTION writer. J. D. Salinger is well known for being secretive.

Zoltan Beldi

Wow…If the GISS don’t even want to use it. it must really stink.

Tim Clark

GISS…..NSS……. It’s no coincidence they’re all truncated to *sses.

Pat Moffitt

PJP says:
May 15, 2010 at 6:44 am
Absolutely amazing.
Why is it, that even in developed countries, a single individual can get away with manipulating “official” records so dramatically and for so long, and government policy be blindly driven by this forged data?
Policy is not set by the data. The data is transformed to fit the policy. Social Justice was the solution and climate change was the “problem”.

John Blake

The more we read of CAGWists dementia in widespread venues, the more it seems –as emphatically stated in this article– that virtually everything published by Warmists’ Green Gang of peculating ideologues since the early 1980s must be excised, extruded, excreted from body politics by root-and-branch.
Briffa, Hansen, Jones, Mann, Trenberth et al. uniformly operate in bad faith, under false pretenses, to the extreme detriment not only of disinterested public policy but of objective, rational scientific enterprise. What makes climate hysterics’ ongoing calumnies, pejorative vituperation, insufferable is that their self-righteous rants are based on conscious, knowing fraud which they will go to any lengths to hide.
Nothing one can say does justice to this extraordinary forfeiture of public trust. Not for one moment do Climate Cultists “pastoralize” their own behavior– quite the contrary, as Al Gore exemplifies. Society’s defense demands that these incredibly ill-willed poseurs face real-world consequences now, not in tenured Neverland a generation hence.

D. King

“It should be noted that NIWA is not the official Meteorological Service of New Zealand. …- Anthony”
“It was smuggled into the official archive without any formal process.”
http://tinyurl.com/268febg

Post modern philosophy and its consequence: post normal science and politics
A philosophical/scientific/political tradition in which the one who holds power gets to tell the story. The story is by definition, the “truth”, without reference to fact or fiction. That is because the meta-story is that truth its itself a prior fiction and what it actually is cannot be known by man. Hence the use of “consensus” to determine the story to be told. This so called “consensus” is often the result of intellectual fraud and extortion. Yet, once the story is published and “reviewed” by the “relevant experts” it becomes the “truth” not to be questioned by test or counter evidence.
Out of this comes the circumstance in which the masses pay with their lives and fortunes and the political elite get to play without consequence. This works as long as there is wealth to steal and victims to sacrifice. We, the prospective sacrificial victims are not to question our “betters”. Why? They get to tell the story. That’s the sole reason and nothing else. We don’t have a say in the matter or so they hope.
One interesting side effect is that the political elite don’t learn from history because they believe that history is simply the “story” told by the previous political elite. They conclude that it has no more relation to actual truth than their own story and is thus subject to their whim this time. They are always surprised when things don’t work out to match their story. However, they are ready and willing to make up a new story that does not contain the “failed” parts of their old story.
Question: Why do we victims cooperate with and even vote for such a thing? Its been going on since man invented governments. Always with the same path and the same end in the dark abyss. Only the places, names of the guilty, and the body counts are different.
Observation: Its not post modern anything. Its as ancient as the alliance between a tribal chieftain and his witch doctor.

Robert of Ottawa

I know that the Kiwis are an advanced lot, inventing atomic physics ‘n all, but Auckland Airport in 1880?

David Ball

You will find this hilarious. I heard on “alternative radio” a “debate” on cap and trade. The two opposing views were represented by Joe Romm on one side and the head of Greenpeace on the other. Talk about an echo chamber !!! They have zero scruples these people. As you might conclude, it was not a very informative debate. Epic fail.

tty

Actually this New Zealand caper has no effect on CRUTEM, since CRU doesn’t use the doctored version. They use the raw data. As somebody said earlier, in comparison with this Phil Jones is beginning to look rather virtuous.

DirkH

Linked newspaper article says Lucy Lawless, activist singer, appears in court case of Salinger re his unfair dismissal. Quick google for “Lawless Salinger” gives interesting results. e.g.:
Lucy Lawless and Jim Salinger at Beehive – [ Diese Seite übersetzen ]
18 Nov 2009 … Lucy Lawless and Jim Salinger visit Parliament to present nearly $5000 fundraised to get PM John Key to Copenhagen …
Greenpeace link already dead, ministry of truth in purge mode it seems.
http://www.greenpeace.gen.nz/media/main.php/v/…/presentation/ – Im CacheLucy Lawless and Jim Salinger offer Key Copenhagen cash | Sign On – [ Diese Seite übersetzen ]
18 Nov 2009 … Lucy Lawless and Jim Salinger rocked up to Parliament, with a giant Copenhagen boarding pass and a fat cheque in hand. …
http://www.signon.org.nz/…/lucy-lawless-and-jim-salinger-offer-key-copenhagen-cash – Im CacheLucy Lawless and Jim Salinger offer nearly $5000 to John Key | Sign On – [ Diese Seite übersetzen ]
Auckland Wednesday November 18 2009 – Actress Lucy Lawless and top climate scientist Jim Salinger will visit Parliament today to present Prime Minister John …
http://www.signon.org.nz/…/lucy-lawless-and-jim-salinger-offer-nearly-5000-to-john-key – Im Cache
Weitere Ergebnisse anzeigen von http://www.signon.org.nzLawless and Salinger offer Key ticket to Copenhagen – Story … – [ Diese Seite übersetzen ]
18 Nov 2009 … Actress Lucy Lawless and Jim Salinger will offer John Key $4781 to get him to a climate change conference in Copenhagen Lawless and Salinger …
http://www.3news.co.nz/Lawless-and-Salinger…/Default.aspx – Im Cache

Al Gore's Holy Hologram

The poster screams of brainwashing children with this rebranded prehistoric climate religion

DirkH

Seems i made a job title mistake, sorry, activist ACTRESS Lucy Lawless, not activist singer Lucy Lawless.

A C Osborn

tty says:
May 15, 2010 at 10:09 am
But do they use the specially selected Sites?

David Davidovics

This reminds me of a point in the fable “Animal Farm” where the founding principles were revised secretly when it became politically advantageous. Eventually all the core values were completely lost or adjusted and only the oldest generation could remember and recite them but by then it was too late. Just a story, right? I’m glad George Orwell isn’t here to see this.
We are talking about revising history here. I can’t think of a greater scientific loss than to have original historical source data disappear which can never be replaced.

PaulH

In 1992, it published a booklet containing a detailed history of all its weather stations, along with 140 years of climate data.
It sounds like the Kiwis could use a Surface Stations project right about now.

ShrNfr

I would say that global warming is causing kiwis, but that comment would be for the birds.

D. King

tty says:
May 15, 2010 at 10:09 am
CRU doesn’t use the doctored version. They use the raw data.
I thought Jones lost the raw data.
The CRU uses raw homogenized data, which
is like raw data, …only homogenized. : )

Who said the warming is not man made?

JimB

“Robert of Ottawa says:
May 15, 2010 at 9:53 am
I know that the Kiwis are an advanced lot, inventing atomic physics ‘n all, but Auckland Airport in 1880?”
Funniest comment here… 🙂
You’ve got to love the study of feedback loops. Everyone in business knows of them. They’re the means by which you measure the value of a subsystem or action within a process. Change the action, observe the feedback, and then act.
These systems we’re observing have no feedback loop. They run completely open…meaning there’s never any MEASURE/RESPONSE to one of the actions. Until recently, last Nov to be exact, there was no downside at all for pols or scientists squawking about AGW. It was all upside. And when one of them were charged or found out?…didn’t matter one iota. Business as usual, keep those grant cards and money comin’ in, folks. No feedback = no accountability.
Even with what happened…the rest of the shillsters haven’t recieved or haven’t paid attention to the outcome.
JimB

Walter Cronanty

John Blake says:
May 15, 2010 at 9:19 am
….
What makes climate hysterics’ ongoing calumnies, pejorative vituperation, insufferable is that their self-righteous rants are based on conscious, knowing fraud which they will go to any lengths to hide.
Lionell Griffith says:
May 15, 2010 at 9:46 am

Observation: Its not post modern anything. Its as ancient as the alliance between a tribal chieftain and his witch doctor.
Well said, well said. If one reads the life story of King David, there truly is nothing new under the sun. I can’t determine whether the most vociferous CAGWers are: 1) oldtime shysters, using the hysteria for their own monetary gain; 2) oldtime socialists, using the new “green” tag as a method of grabbing economic and/or political power; or, 3) oldtime true believers, to whom the phrase “the end justifies the means” is a commandment.

DirkH

“JimB says:
[…]
These systems we’re observing have no feedback loop. They run completely open…meaning there’s never any MEASURE/RESPONSE to one of the actions. […]”
I don’t think so. There was and is a positive feedback: Sketch a terrible catastrophe on the horizon, murmur the mystical words “More research is needed” and you get further funding. This is how the entire cacophony that poses as science grew and grew; an economist would call it a bubble. And economists know what happens to bubbles.

Wren

NIWA stands by its scientist
http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/news/all/niwa-stands-by-its-scientists
They say there is ample evidence of warming trend in New Zealand, including glacier melting.
The claim there has been no warming trend probably is based on a faulty analysis.

The CRUTEM3 database shows there has been no warming in NZ in the last 40 years. All of the official warming is artificially created through adjustments.
See: New Zealand Regional Summary for an examination of the CRUTEM3 data and individual station adjustments.

kwik

One wonders how much this has cost the taxpayers in New Zealand so far?

John in NZ

@ Robert of Ottawa says:
May 15, 2010 at 9:53 am
“I know that the Kiwis are an advanced lot, inventing atomic physics ‘n all, but Auckland Airport in 1880?”
Good point. As a child in the 60’s I vaguely remember going to what I think was the opening of the Auckland Airport. Is there a step in the record in the 1960s.
Salinger btw worked at CRU some years ago.

DirkH

“Wren says:
May 15, 2010 at 12:18 pm
NIWA stands by its scientist
http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/news/all/niwa-stands-by-its-scientists

So the UNadjusted 11 station series looks nearly exactly like the adjusted 7 station series… how bizarre.

James Allison

“I know that the Kiwis are an advanced lot, inventing atomic physics ‘n all, but Auckland Airport in 1880?”
Air Kiwi – the flightless airline.

Mike McMillan

geo says:
. . . In northern Iowa this morning for some surfacestation hunting!

Hooray, that area’s been blank for a long time. Here’s the Iowa wish list –
Fayette, Indianola, Iowa Falls, LeMars, Rockwell City, and Storm Lake.