By Steve Goddard
View from NCAR’s roof this morning (NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research)
From the “climate models are not climate” department.
It was seven months ago today that the NCAR scientist sent out this infamous E-mail shown below:
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Michael Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Myles Allen <allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter stott <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, “Philip D. Jones” <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Benjamin Santer <santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, James Hansen <jhansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).
The Colorado Front Range is now entering it’s eighth month of winter. Yesterday I had to cancel soccer practice for the sixth time in six weeks due to winter weather. Here is what CU experts running climate models forecast two years ago.
DENVER — A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow on lower slopes.
On the other side of the pond, The Guardian reports :
Snow and frost bring winter chill to May Snowfall, overnight temperatures of -1C
Confirming once again The Met Office Forecast from 10 years ago:
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
Not to mention this gem of modern science:
Scottish ski industry could disappear due to global warming, warns Met Office
How did that prediction turn out?
Scotland records coldest winter. Scotland has suffered some of the coldest winter months in almost 100 years, the Met Office has confirmed.
Scotland’s ski resorts are enjoying one of their most successful seasons ever, with a big rise in visitor numbers and the best conditions in a generation.
Most of the US has been running well below normal temperatures since October 1.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/WaterTDeptUS.png
I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
“Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.” – Albert Einstein
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm
LOL!
“If carbon emissions increase, the average temperature at Park City will be 10.4 degrees warmer by 2100, and there likely will be no snowpack, according to the study.”
Don’t these people ever get tired of looking like fools?
Friends in Estes Park, Colorado report 15″ of snow, while another friend on the other side of Estes says “at least a foot.”
A foot of snow last week in town. Buffalo, Wyoming.
Two inches of cold, cold rain and a few inches of cement snow.
The Bighorn Mountains have received four FEET of snow in the past two weeks.
And we always have tourists from back East coming out in May and wondering why it isn’t summer, yet. This year – they will really be wondering.
PS – No complaints about the moisture, though.
We really need it.
“Snow is a thing of the past.”
It’s May!!
What fools! lol
The GCMs are not intended to predict short-term variations in regional weather. I’m certain there are many localized regions where the GCM missed the mark by a few degrees, for a few years(decades?). In 30-40 years, we may know with some certainty whether or not GCMs are useful for predicting long-term climate. 😉
It’s comforting to know that God has a sense of humor.
Will reality check, as this one, change or stop UN´s World Governance project?. No, neither a million WUWT blogs. That kind of projects, as other previous historic projects, now extinct, can only be stopped utilizing more convincing and direct means. There were needed two atomic bombs to stop one at the pacific, and 50 million “casualties” (a neologism for crude deaths) to stop another in europe, designed to last a “thousand years”. Hope this time the “Chosen Ones”are clever enough to ponder on the consequences of such dreams for power.
Live cam from Estes Park, Colorado:
http://www.estesparkweather.net/index.php
Living in the Front Range (closer to Boulder than I’m going to admit), I’m really surprised the map shows Boulder only minus 2 degrees cooler than normal. Based on the above email, you’d think they’d have a case for closer to four degrees less than normal.
I think the excuse will be cooking Tofu turkeys creates more heat than real turkeys…
Not certain of this, but I’m pretty sure Kevin Trenberth has never been the director of NCAR. If that’s the case, this post has a factual error in the first complete sentence, which might be a new record!
“Weather forecasters record coldest May night since 1996”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8677263.stm
“The night time UK average is normally 4-7C at this time of the year.
But -6C was recorded in the Highlands of Scotland, -3.1C in Oxfordshire, -4.3C in Wales, -5.3C in Cumbria -3.9C in East Anglia and 0C in London.”
Hi Steve,
interesting article, but we all know by now that weather is no climate.
But just in case, be on the lookout for the first polar bears entering Colorado.
After all that warming in the Artic they must look for high places so they will not drown…
But wasn’t the winter just gone the hottest ever recorded?
Mailman
Clearing the snow off Snowdon mountain railway line
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8608357.stm
“Spring has arrived across much of Wales but on Snowdon the people who operate the mountain railway have embarked on a race against time to get the track to the summit open again.
It was the coldest, snowiest winter for decades and thousands of tonnes of snow remain on parts of the line”
“Even if emissions are reduced, winters will be warmer and less snowy than in the past because there’s a 50- to 70-year lag between release of the carbon and the effects, the researchers said.”
Wow, that’s a howler and a half. They really do make it up as they go along, don’t they?
I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?
It’s going to feel like 43 @ SFO, 25 @ DEN, 32 @ SLC, 47 @ PTJ, 45 @ SEA, 56 @ LAS, 57 @ LAX, 35 @ MOT – – – It’s either the Pacific or someone forgot to close a refrig. door in Japan….
Johnny D,
You are correct that Trenberth is not the director. He is listed as :
Dr. Kevin Trenberth, Senior Scientist, CAS Section Head
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
Glad that you are keenly focused on the central points of the article. It is the sign of a sharp intellect.
REPLY: title changed to simply “scientist” -A
RHS
I feel the same way. This winter has been much colder than the NOAA maps show. Possibly the result of TOBS and homogenization adjustments?
Gene Zeien
One might expect trends predicted by climate models to at least have the correct polarity.
Oh but wait!
Scientific experts at the WWF predicted all this. Here’s what they said about Russia:
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/05/07/french-weather-event-proves-climate-change/
(Not meaning to promte my own site here). I’m sure the US WWF climate expert has the same conclusion – all predicted by GCM.
The cold Pacific temperatures are apparently due to all that “excess heat in the pipeline” which Hansen warns of.
Oops
Here’s the WWF quote:
“In the future we [Russians] can anticipate a somewhat warmer and much more unstable climate, including snowfalls in May and July.”
“Kevin E. Trenberth is head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He was a lead author of the 2001 and 2007 IPCC Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (see IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) and serves on the Scientific Steering Group for the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_E._Trenberth
Yo Johnny D,
Here is what that font of climate truth, Wikipedia, says about Mr. Trenberth.
Kevin E. Trenberth is head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
So, yes I guess you scored another glorious victory over a “denialist”. He is only the head of the Climate Analysis Section of the NCAR, but since this post is about, you know climate, Steve’s small mis-statement is probably not what you would call a big deal.
Of course you can now run this tid-bit over to the screeching monkeys at Deltoid and Tim Lambert will trumpet your triumph over the “denial-o-sphere” to the faithful.
You’re a real hero.
It may or may not anything to do with the sun and the ‘microdots’ masquerading as sunspots.
If it is the sun, than there is a lot worse to come, as Livingstone & Penn are forecasting.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC14.htm
I’m heading back to Scotland at the weekend for my annual visit. I usually go in May/June. For the last 4 years there has been fresh snow on the hills and a couple of times at low levels (below 1000ft).
stevengoddard — “Glad that you are keenly focused on the central points of the article. It is the sign of a sharp intellect.”
The central points of the article — like conflating short-term weather and long-term climate? How does a snowy winter in 2010 disprove predictions of less snow in the 2050s?
Well I don’t give a fig what you say Mr. Goddard, I am going to firmly believe in GW this spring/summer, and grow some sweet bell peppers in my garden with no protection!
🙂
One good thing about the cold weather is that the Cottonwood trees have just started leafing out. Had this heavy snow fallen on fully leafed out trees, there would be much more property damage from falling branches. That happened in 1996 and made a huge mess.
My understanding is that out of 100 climate regions any one model might get 3 right for a 3% accuracy rate that is less than or equal to random chance! The longer the runs the worse the results. But what do you expect from Nintendo?
We’re back to the winters of the 80’s in Colorado. Snow beginning in October through May. Precip/snowpack at or above average. Summers that don’t reach the normal highs (never could get my tomatoes to turn last summer here in the Front Range). The ski season used to never begin until at least Christmas. Artificial snowmaking has extended it into early October. Shorter ski seasons, right. The reason the resorts closed in mid-April this year was due to economic reasons, not a lack of snow!
Shorter ski seasons, wrong!
I can only wonder when they (the GCM advocates) will start to switch their baselines towards a period that gives a lower average temperature so that the anomalies for the current “lower” temperatures will still appear to be “higher” than average…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/weather
Contents of the page are quite a contrast in perspectives….
April Showers bring May Blizzards.
Colorado weather can do just about anything. And frequently does.
At 2:10pm in the Denver Metro area, the snow is now melted, typical for spring, but the temp is 37 degrees. Not that this is unusual. For those newbies who did their planting last weekend, the rule is not to plant until the Sunday after Mother’s Day. That should be spot on this year.
It could be spring any day now though. I’m REALLY tired of being cold.
The best thing that could happen to this planet, and everything on it, is that it gets warmer…..
…..how is this world did that get spun into a bad thing in the first place?
Gene Zeien says:
May 12, 2010 at 12:22 pm
The GCMs are not… In 30-40 years, …
by then the data, source code, and results will have been eaten by the resident canine. The senior scientists in charge will have retired, or died. Their subordinates will be left holding the bag.
Well here in southern England we’re having to remove delicate flowering plants each night this week to the garage – then back out in the morning. Frost will visit again tonight – very unusual for mid-May here in this part of England!
The average temperature for May in England is 12 deg c (last 10 years). It’s currently averaging just 8 deg c for the month so far!!! Every month since the year began has been cooler than the average of the past 10 years. January was 3.6 deg c cooler than average, but May will beat it if it carries on like this.
Scientists Stunned as Grey Whale Sighted off Israel
This sounds like a good thing to me, but it’s actually a sign of climate change! Yes, it’s worse than we thought because the grey whales are returning after hundreds of years.
In the real world (outside of Academia), those who get paid to forecast and predict future scenarios are only as good as their last attempt. Those who consistently hit the bulls eye are rewarded, those who don’t soon find themselves out of a job.
“climate models are not climate” – LOL
The heat is hiding. The “pretend science” circle sure sound superstitous. The E-mails leaked out an inconvenient amount of truth.
Joe Romm said the droughts were caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Wet and cold are the opposite of hot and dry.
I say enjoy the snow and rain. They don’t have to get all political every time they uncover their eyes and look outside.
WCR – good for bad, bad for good paradigm of global warming impacts
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2010/05/11/a-rare-bird-or-whale-indeed/
I love their wry humour.
For John Egan:
Still snowing in Buffalo, WY at 2:35PM today so I guess a little AGW would’nt hurt us too much. Maybe those ships spraying water into the air that the computer geek Bill Gates dreamed up would give us a little more rain to boot! Got to remind those tourists that this is a 5000 ft elevation desert, here, and the mountains make their own weather.
HA HA HAAA, THE BILL, LET ME AT IT! LET ME AT IT!! GONNA TEAR THAT FRICKIN’ THING TO PIECES! – Kerry-Lieberman bill – all 987 pages http://bit.ly/aTAw8t
Yep, winter marches on here in Colorado – getting pretty tired of it though; Although we only has 2″ of snow last night on the edge of the SW foothills of Denver- more snow north with this storm. It’s been the worst spring cycling season since I have lived here (last 13 years). Still a 44″ base at A-Basin this AM. See http://www.coloradoski.com/
Hit the slopes!
Gene Zeien says:
May 12, 2010 at 12:22 pm
The GCMs are not intended to predict short-term variations in regional weather. I’m certain there are many localized regions where the GCM missed the mark by a few degrees, for a few years(decades?). In 30-40 years, we may know with some certainty whether or not GCMs are useful for predicting long-term climate. 😉
__________________________________________________________________
Yes but we are NOT talking about just a day or two in only one or two places. I am in NC and it has been cold for TWO years.
This is Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming writ large, do not believe your lying eyes – trust the MSM, Gore, Bankster carbon traders & those for world government taxation.
Kerry & Lieberman introduce Cap & Trade today
http://www.brookfieldnow.com/blogs/communityblogs/93611359.html
***************
Mike Davis says:
May 12, 2010 at 1:09 pm
My understanding is that out of 100 climate regions any one model might get 3 right for a 3% accuracy rate that is less than or equal to random chance! The longer the runs the worse the results. But what do you expect from Nintendo?
******************
Oh well, when the GCMs finally fall, they can use the supercomputer to surf porn faster … wait … were those the climate scientists or SEC employees?
in Paris,France, yesterday May 11th the temperature was the coldest ever recorded for this day : 7°C
Meanwhile, some aren’t content with projecting temperatures a few decades hence. Apparently, there’s a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by
researches from the University of New South Wales in Australia and Purdue University in the US looking up to 2300. The authors predict temperatures might have risen by at least 7 degC by then, making much of the world uninhabitable. One author, Professor Steven Sherwood, has said that “There’s something like a 50/50 chance of that over the long term”. Reported by the indefatigable Louise Grey of the Telegraph.
The heat always seems to find the least populated areas. The Allagash Waterway in northern Maine is a beautiful area and one of the least populated areas in the continental U.S.
Steven, feel for you pard!
We are just about 150 miles further south but it’s at least been tolerable here, usually chilly but snow & frosts has stayed 50 or so miles to the north. Mother nature isn’t equalizing as she should. Naughty, naughty! (or GISS, just possibly, could it be bad data you read from the other locations on this globe or maybe a bit too much of your extrapolation? We don’t want to give mother nature a bad rap, do we?)
vukcevic etc. says:
May 12, 2010 at 12:56 pm
It may or may not anything to do with the sun and the ‘microdots’ masquerading as sunspots.
If it is the sun, than there is a lot worse to come, as Livingstone & Penn are forecasting.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC14.htm
What else could it be? Though some clerics of the warming Gaia creed deny it. Time will tell….current paradigms (beliefs) will change but, surely, freeze.
Johnny D
This is four straight cold, snowy winters in Colorado. 2008 was the snowiest on record in Aspen and many other ski areas.
But no doubt in 40 years, some magical non-linear change will happen to the climate which will make all the snow disappear. You probably didn’t read the rest of Trenberth’s letter, because you were so excited by your brilliant discovery.
“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. “
Jeff L
I feel like I have been cycling into a 20MPH headwind continuously for the last two months.
Mauibrad,
Talk about a government out of touch. What are the most important concerns in America? Economy and jobs!
According to the latest Gallup poll, GW is not even on the list! Leave it to them to focus on a non-issue.
Easy there, Lance. I pointed it out because claiming the director of NCAR was part of the climategate emails is very different from saying it was a middle manager. And it was pretty glaring being right at the beginning of the post (unlike, say, the IPCC Himalayan glacier problem, on page 493 of the second of three huge volumes).
“From the early 1940s until the early 1970s, when NAO index exhibited a downward trend, European wintertime temperatures were frequently lower than normal. “
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/Docs/hurrell0895-science.pdf
Could this possibly mean that European wintertime temperatures from the early 2010s until the early 2040s may frequently become lower than normal?
I am starting to get used to the North Wind here in Norway, but come on, 30 years?
David S
Alarmists have trouble keeping their stories straight. When they aren’t talking about “peak oil” they are making calculations based on increasing use of oil for the next 300 years.
The only comment that ever comes to mind about “climate models” is an old axiom of computer programming, referred to as “garbage in, garbage out”. Data that is contaminated by a. poor observation, b.faulty equipment, and c. wishful thinking is a wonderful method for creating science fiction, but is poor science.
How does a snowy winter in 2010 disprove predictions of less snow in the 2050s?
What an amazingly biased, ignorant, unanswerable, and irrelevant question!
The question itself points to the lack of education and understanding of the questioner.
Steve Goddard,
8 months? When it starts crossing 11 months….you know whats up with that!
@The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley,
I’m in Selsey, West Sussex which is well known for its balmy micro-climate as it is sheltered by the Isle of Wight from any Atlantic sourced stormy blasts. This morning (12 May 2010) we had a very hard frost, sufficiently cold to precipitate out the waxes in the ultra-poor but very expensive diesel sold by our local fuel stations. My Mercedes and my Renault (both diesel) would not start this morning. My petrol powered Vauxhall fired up without any problems. At about 1:00pm, both diesel cars started without any problems, once the ambient temperature had risen.
My vegetable garden is in ruins. Even the potato plants have been savaged by the cold.
I wonder what warming the Zealots are actually talking about?
pgosselin says:
May 12, 2010 at 2:06 pm
Both problems could be solved in one year or two, but it’s gonna be hard and very, very painful.
Any economist has the formula, but who dares to apply it! The longer you take to decide the move to face reality, the harder it will be.
But, as when kids: “Just close your eyes and swallow it!”
the science is irrelevant!
Website of John Kerry: THE AMERICAN POWER ACT:
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING
Lt. General John G. Castellaw US Army, Retired:
“This isn’t an environmental issue, this is a security issue. Our strategic interests, and therefore our national security and the safety of Americans, are threatened by climate change and our continuing dependence on oil. Military leaders know this isn’t about polar bears and ice caps, it’s about international stability and national security.”
also:
General Electric:
“The ‘American Power Act’ represents an important step toward a strong national energy policy, and GE applauds Senators Kerry and Lieberman for their leadership on an issue that is critical to the future of our nation and our economy…
Firelake Capital Management LLC.:
“Comprehensive energy and climate policy that includes a clear market based price signal for carbon that rewards innovation is key for companies across the country to accelerate our transition to a sustainable clean energy infrastructure and market. ..
Rob Sisson, President, Republicans for Environmental Protection:
“We cannot afford further delay in adopting a national policy that addresses our many energy-related challenges. We call on members of Congress to work together constructively across the aisle to pass this prudent and carefully balanced legislation this year. There have been few instances in our nation’s history when legislators have the opportunity to leave a lasting legacy– to have the appendage ’statesman’ added to their names by appreciative future generations. This is one of those rare occasions.”
Exelon:
“Exelon commends Senators Kerry and Lieberman for their leadership in crafting federal climate legislation to address the nation’s energy security, jobs and environmental goals. We are pleased that the draft bill announced today by Senators Kerry and Lieberman proposes a system for putting a price on carbon, which will use market forces to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the lowest possible cost, as well as a firm price collar to protect consumers. As the nation’s largest nuclear operator, Exelon also appreciates that the senators have recognized nuclear power as a low-emission source of baseload electricity with an important role to play in the country’s transition to a low-carbon economy.”
Jeff Immelt Chairman and CEO, General Electric:
“National policy – including an effective price on carbon and a strong, nationwide clean energy standard – is needed to drive increased investment, which in turn creates new technologies and jobs.”
Nuclear Energy Institute:
“The nuclear-related provisions of this legislation provide a solid platform for the expansion of nuclear energy to meet our electricity needs, create thousands of jobs and help achieve the desired reductions of greenhouse gas emissions…
Jonathan Murray, Operation Free Campaign Director and former US Marine:
Taking a strong stance on carbon pollution could deprive Iran, one of the world’s most aggressive and unpredictable nations, of up to $100 million a day. Given their record of hostility to us and our allies, we can’t afford to allow them even one more dime.”
Major General Paul Monroe US Army, Retired:
“We make a profound strategic error if we underestimate the impact that climate has on regional and international stability. Some of our most worrisome trouble spots around the world are dangerous because of a combination of climate problems and social unrest – Somalia, Nigeria, and Yemen are strong examples. Congress must pass this legislation to make the world a safer place.”
Shell Oil:
“Shell commends Senators Kerry and Lieberman for introducing an energy and climate bill designed to strengthen our economy, create jobs and enhance our energy security while reducing greenhouse gas emissions ..
http://kerry.senate.gov/americanpoweract/pdf/APAwhattheyaresaying.pdf
also includes: Statement from Alliance for Climate Protection, Audubon, Center for American Progress Action Fund, Climate Solutions, Defenders of Wildlife, ENE (Environment Northeast), Environment America, Environmental Defense Fund, Environmental Law and Policy Center, Fresh Energy, Green For All, League of Conservation Voters, National Tribal Environmental Council, National Wildlife Federation, Natural Resources Defense Council, Oxfam America, Sierra Club, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, The Wilderness Society, Union of Concerned Scientists, World Wildlife Fund
“Today’s action by Senators John Kerry (Mass.) and Joe Lieberman (Conn.) jumpstarts the Senate debate over America’s energy future. Their unwavering leadership has been critical to the progress made thus far. Every day the Senate fails to pass comprehensive clean energy and climate legislation we put our economy, our national security and our environment at greater risk. Inaction is too costly, and the challenge is too urgent. The Gulf Coast oil catastrophe is yet another reminder that the United States must reduce its dependence on oil to protect our security, economy and environment. The millions of Americans we represent demand a Senate vote on comprehensive clean energy and climate legislation. President Obama and leaders of both parties in Congress must provide the leadership necessary to develop a clean energy and climate solution that becomes law this year.”
Johnny D
Trenberth isn’t “implicated” in anything. His e-mail is an honest discussion of the fact that the climate models don’t accurately represent the current climate. The word he used to describe the disparity is “travesty.”
Steven, maybe it will warm you up just to see what the sun was up to years back in the actual warm years when February felt like spring: http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/Sunspot_activity_hits_1,000-year_high.html?cid=3990930
pgosselin says:
May 12, 2010 at 2:06 pm
Mauibrad,
Talk about a government out of touch. What are the most important concerns in America? Economy and jobs!
According to the latest Gallup poll, GW is not even on the list! Leave it to them to focus on a non-issue.
—————
Reply: But to them, it IS the issue, just like health care was a non-issue to everybody except the administration. They didn’t enact health care for us, they enacted it for THEM (because it wasn’t about health care in the first place)! They aren’t enacting Cap & Trade for us, they are going to enact it for THEM! (again, because it isn’t about the environment at all).
Folks had better wake up and vote for if they don’t, they will no longer be able to vote with their feet; there will be nowhere else to go.
That “hot dot” in south-central PA is spurious. It is an obvious artifact on visible on pretty much every temp map on those HPRCC maps.
Quotation marks should be reserved for people’s actual words. I never used the word “implicated”; you’re refuting a point I didn’t even make.
It seems you have your head buried in the show.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Johnny D
So what is your point? Trenberth said that no one can explain the “lack of warming.”
You seem to want to talk about anything except for the topic of the article.
Mike
The slope the GISS graph is 0.65C/century. Scary, scary stuff.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/oimg?key=0AnKz9p_7fMvBdEhPYkw3LUViOHBvOERSSUF3ZjJwcVE&oid=2&zx=5bzt70-oy3rcf
Like a couple of other posters above, I too am in Southern England.
After may years of seeing my Cherry tree blossom around Easter, and then lose it all within a week (usually due to high winds) this year the blossom is much later and has hung around (hardly any windy days recently). Most of the deciduous trees seem much later getting their leaves, in fact some still seem short of the full complement.
After 4 lousy summers, my grass is looking appalling, and set to get worse.
I am wearing winter clothes when I take my dog for walks, and my wife is bringing in the potplants to avoid the frost. In May.
This is going to be another UK Year Without a Summer.
How many of these do we have to get, before the warming fantasists are finally laughed out of town. Even today, we had to suffer the awful Roger Harbinger (of doom) on the BBC coverage of the new government appointments. Gleefully (well, as close as a Harbinger of Doom can get to being gleeful) stating that the LibDems will be delighted that Chris Huehne will be tackling climate change.
A couple of weeks ago, another BBC propaganda effort had a “scientist” talking about human evolution, and how by the end of this century there will just be a few of us left, hanging on at the Poles, whilst the rest of the world fries.
The only climate change around here is that it is getting colder. Do these idiots have such contempt for the intelligence of normal people that they reckon they can keep on peddling their fantasies, and we won’t notice?
Stephen Brown
I was at the beach in Christchurch during July, 2003. It was miserably cold, but about two days later the heatwave of 2003 hit. After two weeks of hot weather, it was declared to be a sure sign of runaway global warming.
The rules are – two weeks of warm weather is climate. But several years of cold weather is just weather. Anyone who doesn’t understand it is breathtakingly ignorant.
PSU-EMS-Alum said on May 12, 2010 at 3:04 pm:
I tracked that dot down before. Looks like Penn State’s Altoona campus. They offer a BA in Environmental Studies (click here, go for it, there’s a nice pic), thus lots of students betting their careers on solving global warming issues, with the university gladly selling them the vitally-needed education for a long and profitable career solving global warming issues.
Thus I suspect that hot spot is Mann-made warming, or at least Mann-related.
Tony B (another one);
A couple of weeks ago, another BBC propaganda effort had a “scientist” talking about human evolution, and how by the end of this century there will just be a few of us left, hanging on at the Poles, whilst the rest of the world fries.
The only climate change around here is that it is getting colder. Do these idiots have such contempt for the intelligence of normal people that they reckon they can keep on peddling their fantasies, and we won’t notice?>>
Just once I’d like to see the interviewer ask… “so, are you buying property in the far north of Canada as a hedge to protect the future of your family, your children and grandchildren? No? You’re just going to let them fry? Al Gore too, same thing, no interest in the good real estate? Wow, what martyrs all you warmascaramologists are.”
So in answer to your question… if no one notice that, then no one noticed much else.
“Johnny D says:
[…]The central points of the article — like conflating short-term weather and long-term climate? How does a snowy winter in 2010 disprove predictions of less snow in the 2050s?”
Climatologists never make predictions, only projections. Predictions are verifiable so they avoid that.
John Egan
I just got back from Buffalo. Really enjoyed the Occidental hotel there on a Thursday night. Drove across the Big Horns in a snow storm. The snow really surprised me too. All of the Rockies seem to be getting lots of late snow. I hope some will be left when I return to them in September.
Right now I’m waiting for Steven Goddard to get around to some sea ice news. I want to see when the ice around the Bering Strait got so thinned out, with presumably lots of open water, that grey whale was able to swim from the North Pacific ocean, across the Arctic Ocean, and end up off the coast of Israel.
Personally I think it more likely it wound up just to the east of Africa and wandered up the Suez Canal, or went around the southern tip of Africa or even South America, than that it came down from the Arctic. But then I am not qualified to speculate on such oceanographic issues as this is blamed on global warming and I don’t have a doctorate in climatology.
(BTW I was telling my mother about the whale being there, and while she was drinking her coffee I told her “they blamed it on global warming.” She survived, just.)
Of course, this can also be readily blamed on aliens. They have a thing for whales (ref: Star Trek IV). 🙂
stevengoddard: You seem to want to talk about anything except for the topic of the article.
As I stated earlier, “The central points of the article — like conflating short-term weather and long-term climate? How does a snowy winter in 2010 disprove predictions of less snow in the 2050s?” The Trenberth email you’re referring to is clearly around-the-water-cooler-style complaining about the weather (like we all engage in). Then you try to refute predicted changes in *long-term* (mid-century) snowfall in Scotland by saying that Scotland had a snowy 2010. That’s nonsense. Comparing long-term climate predictions to short-term weather is meaningless at best and misleading at worst.
And this from the above Guardian (May 12 2010) link:
Then there is this gem from the BBC in 2004
——–
12 May 2010 – Skegness managed an overnight temperature of -1C, snow flakes fluttered down on Tyneside
“travesty” is a good word to search for in the CRU emails. There are 10 associated emails that are worth rereading. There are only a month away from the release of the emails. I wonder if this exchange is what made someone decide to blow the whistle on the whole mess.
1255532032.txt
From: Michael Mann
To: Kevin Trenberth
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 2009 10:53:52 -0400
Cc: Tom Wigley, Stephen H Schneider, Myles Allen, peter stott , “Philip D. Jones”, Benjamin Santer, Thomas R Karl, Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer
thanks Kevin, yes, it’s a matter of what question one is asking. to argue that the observed global mean temperature anomalies of the past decade falsifies the model projections of global mean temperature change, as contrarians have been fond of claiming, is clearly wrong. but that doesn’t mean we can explain exactly what’s going on. there is always the danger of falling a bit into the “we don’t know everything, so we know nothing” fallacy. hence, I wanted to try to clarify where we all agree, and where there may be
disagreement,
mike
…
On Oct 14, 2009, at 10:17 AM, Kevin Trenberth wrote:
Hi Tom
How come you do not agree with a statement that says we are no where close to knowing where energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter. We are not close to balancing the energy budget. The fact that we can not account for what is happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!
Kevin
stevengoddard said on May 12, 2010 at 3:30 pm:
Weather is not climate unless weather is climate change.
Temperature anomaly outlooks, apart from the America`s, West Europe and East Asia, are positive. http://wxmaps.org/pix/clim.html
There are still a lot of incursions of polar air occurring due to weak polar vortex chilling some areas dramatically. Winter has gone for some places, but not for others.
My solar based forecast for this last winter was for very cold conditions at times, with heavy Northern Hemisphere snowfalls. It was based mostly on an astronomical look-back to the winter of 1830/1, 65400 days back to be precise. The cold winter was primarily due to lower solar wind speeds in Oct/Nov, Dec/early Jan and Feb: http://www.solen.info/solar/coronal_holes.html
And current cold areas are due to the exchange of Subtropical with Polar air, hence the speed up in ice melt.
Hi Everyone,
don’t worry I’ve just figured it out. There must have been a brief moment in time recently when the whole world was asleep for just a nanosecond. In that brief amount of time there was a flip of some kind that meant that what we have always referred to as the Northern Hemisphere is now the Southern Hemisphere, and vice versa.
Reading about the climate change going on in many areas on your side of the equator the descriptions sound like the sort of climate that we here downunder should be experiencing, but aren’t. As an example New Zealand is being bombed by sub-tropical lows that are bringing humid, warm, moisture laden skies (and with it much needed rain to the top half of the country). The city of Whanganui just up the coast from me recorded a temp of 23 C yesterday as the national high. Not unheard of in May if one searches the archives hard enough but rare enough so that you can’t easily remember the last time.
It could just be the El Nino Modoki doing its’ thing of course. I’d like to think that we we’re heading into an exceptional southern summer, but I doubt it. My prediction from here is that we should see a sudden change to winter conditions at the end of June, a short harsh winter followed by mild conditions into spring. Having made that prediction based solely on this season being very similar to 2003, I expect the prediction to be obliterated by nature delivering a series of severe winter storms that linger long into the southern spring. This is known in the business as having a Bob (Dime) each way!
Cheers
Coops
‘I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?’
Nope, that cold went up and about and eventually landed in Europe, Russia, and Asia, gooosh, like, everyone knows that. What US got was just a cold weather snap. :p
Weather IS climate. The only difference is the time-scale. Days and weeks versus decades and centuries. There isn’t a distinction between them apart from the choice of the clock you care to use.
There was another damaging frost here in rural western Maryland on May 10th — 30F (-2C). The daytime high w/alot of sun was a mere 54F. There were several inches of snow in north-central Pennsylvania.
“Global warming” seems to have missed this area the last couple springs.
You could say less snow in 10 years which was predicted 10 years ago by someone at the CRU!!!
click
10 years ago we are past the point of no return with global warming
click
Enneagram says:
May 12, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Its more to do with weaker coronal holes than lack of sunspots. Solar minimums with lower sunspot counts, are more likely to above, than below normal temperatures. There are some milder winters on the way.
I think the craziest story this week is about “Wrong Way Willy”, the Pacific grey whale that popped up near Israel. The story claims the whale took advantage of the melt off of arctic ice and, against all odds, decided not to join his mates off Baja California as a winter-over spot, but to race across the northwest passage, hell bound for the Dardanelles, apparently.
The reporter evidently is unaware the arctic ice is at the greatest extent in a decade and has been for some time which one could reasonably presume would lead to Wrong Way Willy’s demise. On the other hand, if Willy and begun his trek and timed his passage in July/August, he’d have been in good company as much of the area is quite free of ice. Perhaps too, Willy just followed an ice breaker. OR! he went around the horn!
It seems a nature story without a nice AGW twist has no chance in the MSM.
I kinda like this new way of covering your arse. I’m going on a diet. I expect heavier as well as lighter weight in the coming months.
Yes. I do like this new way of thinking.
Squaw closed for the season last weekend but it was not for lack of snow. Lack of money was the reason … not enough business volume to justify continued operation in the short term. They could have stayed open until at least Memorial Day if not the 4th of July. More snow expected early next week.
The way mother nature loves irony, I’m starting to believe this whole Gaia thing.
Its interesting comparing gaps in global water vapour with -ve temperature anomaly areas http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
As noted above, many Colorado ski areas closed this year for lack of customers, not lack of snow. I skied a little over a week ago at Loveland and conditions were still, well, lovely.
Cap and trade will raise prices, hurt the economy and, so even fewer people will be able to afford to ski.
Boulder broke the record for snow on this date. Temperatures are dropping now 37F at my house at 9 PM MST, so snow tonight too is certainly a possibility. A few years ago, I would have most of my garden in by now but the past couple of years have been cooler than “normal.” You should see all of the dead tomato plants at Walmart and Home Depot.
Hey speaking of records, I have noticed that several low records set last year in Omaha do not seem to be showing in the books. I remember one very easily as July 17, since it happens to be both my mom’s and niece’s birthdays. I can still look back at the low temp on Accuweather as 2 degrees below the record low.
Jimmy Haigh says:
May 12, 2010 at 12:56 pm
I’m heading back to Scotland at the weekend for my annual visit. I usually go in May/June. For the last 4 years there has been fresh snow on the hills and a couple of times at low levels (below 1000ft).
Jimmy, we have had the coldest start to May in 15 years – and there was snow lying just outside Kenmore yesterday afternoon. Minus 6C on Monday night, somewhere further north, presumably Tulloch Bridge or Braemar. Winds due to turn to the south tomorrow so it may have warmed up a little by the time you get here. Brian’s stuck a nice pic of the new snow on the Glen Lyon hills on his site this morning – http://www.aberfeldyweather.com/
I think you had left school by the time I was at Breadalbane, but you may remember my brother, Jonathan, he used to play guitar with Haggis. Can meet up for a pint if you want to put a face to a name – if so ajp2222 AT gmail dot com.
Johnny D
Please come back in 40 years and tell us how the predictions turned out.
In the meantime, I just drove through another mid-May snowstorm and will probably have to cancel tomorrow’s soccer practice.
Ulric Lyons says: “My solar based forecast for this last winter was for very cold conditions at times, with heavy Northern Hemisphere snowfalls.”
Wonderful. This forecast can be found where?
I think it’s important to inform the world that not only was this past winter the snowiest on record in the Northern Hemisphere but that the snow line moved farther south. Global warming predictions say the snow line is supposed to move northward in the Northern Hemisphere and not reach farther south.
The world needs to be informed the earth is cooling. But I think anyone looking out their window already can see that.
Pamela Gray says:
May 12, 2010 at 7:11 pm
I kinda like this new way of covering your arse. I’m going on a diet. I expect heavier as well as lighter weight in the coming months.
Yes. I do like this new way of thinking.
Does it work for the belly too? I haven’t seen my abs since before winter started.
stevengoddard says:
May 12, 2010 at 3:30 pm
Stephen Brown
I was at the beach in Christchurch during July, 2003. It was miserably cold, but about two days later the heatwave of 2003 hit. After two weeks of hot weather, it was declared to be a sure sign of runaway global warming.
The rules are – two weeks of warm weather is climate. But several years of cold weather is just weather. Anyone who doesn’t understand it is breathtakingly ignorant.
——————————————————————————————–
I saw a couple of Senators last week grilling Monckton who are in said state.
Johnny D,
As I pointed out, wikipedia refers to Trenberth as a “head” of the NCAR.
You make the minor quibble that he is not “the” head of the entire NCAR. An irrelevant point that Steve Goddard quickly ceded.
Given the fact that AGW proponents are always claiming that “denialists” are “picking nits” at the periphery of climate science don’t you feel the warm sensation of irony running down your pant leg for picking this tiny nit?
I like it when posts like this inform people that global warming predictions are wrong!
“I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crises. The great point is to bring them the real facts.”
— Abraham Lincoln
Tsk! Those pesky model!
I will stick to the 18th century saying on weather such as,
‘Ne’er cast a clout till May be out’.
For those not into “Old English” see …….
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/walesnature/2010/05/neer_cast_a_clout.html
Ian Cooper in New Zealand: Watch out, because I think your days of being bombed “by sub-tropical lows” will be over sooner than you think. Here in Hobart Tasmania, we had our first real snowfall for the year on Tuesday night and the temp yesterday struggled to post double figures Centigrade. It’s also pretty raw here again today with a significant chill factor adding bite.
Other parts of South-East Australia also received snowfalls and today BOM has announced the El Nino event is over and La Nina is probably taking over. Looks like both hemispheres are equalising!
Cheers to you ,ANZAC friend, and to all other posters. May global warming soon make all your tomatoes ripen!
More of the same in southern France.
http://france.meteofrance.com/france/actu/actu?portlet_id=54866&document_id=22935
http://france.meteofrance.com/france/actu/actu?portlet_id=54866&document_id=22924
Enneagram says: May 12, 2010 at 2:02 pm
vukcevic:“It may or may not anything to do with the sun and the ‘microdots’ masquerading as sunspots. …. there is a lot worse to come, as Livingstone & Penn are forecasting.”
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC14.htm
Enneagram: “What else could it be? Though some clerics of the warming Gaia creed deny it. Time will tell….current paradigms (beliefs) will change but, surely, freeze.”
The Sun – Earth connection may be much more than just the ‘Total Solar Irradiance’ -TSI .
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC1.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC-CETfiles.htm
Hi Keith,
yes I have been keeping an eye on those fronts sweeping into southern parts of Oz icluding one that hit the SW corner under Perth. Those speckled shower clouds on the sat images are a tell-tale sign of a good ol’ southerly buster as they are often called here in Enzed.
I’m not sure why we are getting this sub-tropical stuff, it hit 25 C in Christchurch today, with plenty of 24’s and 23’s aropund the place. It is 20 C in my lounge tonight without any additional heating being applied. I’m sitting around with just a T-shirt on top!
I agree with you my Anzac mate. It is only a metter of time before we see regular southerly fronts rolling up the country with their Antarctic sting. Our last one was in mid March and put the first snow on the volcanic plateau in the central North Island, mainly on the high volcanoes. We’ll just have to put up with this obscene warmth for a little longer!
Cheers, Coops.
heard on the news predictions of a couple of feet of new snow in Wyoming…
This winter isn’t over yet. Maybe by June or July…
“I can only wonder when they (the GCM advocates) will start to switch their baselines towards a period that gives a lower average temperature so that the anomalies for the current “lower” temperatures will still appear to be “higher” than average…”
Can’t be done. That’s why GISS uses 1951-80 rather than the international standard 1961-90. There is no colder 30-year period than 1951-80 available this side of the nineteenth century.
Johnny D says:
May 12, 2010 at 1:00 pm
stevengoddard — “Glad that you are keenly focused on the central points of the article. It is the sign of a sharp intellect.”
The central points of the article — like conflating short-term weather and long-term climate? How does a snowy winter in 2010 disprove predictions of less snow in the 2050s?
This is just downright stupid. Climate models predict warming trends. We have record cold. Response is that we aren’t talking about this year but 2050. First of all, if it was record warm temps this winter it would be proof of AGW. And how is anyone going to prove or disprove a “theory” (and yes folks, AGW is only a theory) if the observable confirmtion is in 2050? Face it buddy, there isn’t a shred of evidence for AGW. Tree rings, fabricated photographs, massaged temperature records, and ice core data aren’t proof of anything. In my book, the cooling trend of the last decade and now a record cold winter around the world is going to be a hard sell of global warming. The AGW crowd screwed up when they focused on the “warming”. Should have focused on “climate change” early on and then they could have their cake and eat it too.
afraid4me says:
May 12, 2010 at 1:09 pm
I think your right.
I was planning a weekend trip for this Friday to go fishing at _________ Creek and _____ River, places I go to almost every year. Usually I can get up there with a fair chance of some nice weather and fishing in April. Forget about it this year and last. Low flows and cold water. This does remind me of the weather in the 70s.
Also, forget about putting in the vegetables here in SE Denver. Way too cold, even for cool weather crops. I’ve had to cover the Bleeding Hearts, the plants, not the social group several times this Spring.
Ah, but Colorado is still the best place to be.
David L
I wouldn’t describe your post as “stupid.” More like cognitive dissonance and a refusal to open up your eyes.
jorgekafkazar says:
May 12, 2010 at 8:37 pm
http://climaterealists.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=350#p7009
Myself and Piers both missed the slightly warmer middle of November, on its diagnosis, I predicted a sharp uplift for the start of April well. I also got the first 2 weeks of January wrong, and have diagnosed this for coming forecasts too. The warming just before Christmass occurred, and the later half of January warmed as expected. The first half of January I had uncertainties with, as I told Gabe of climaterealists and Piers. Otherwise ok. My score for 2009 was 49/52 weeks correct,
I didn`t expect the last week in May to be quite so warm, but all my friends seem to think I got it bang on, and asked for a forecast this year; http://www.sunrisecelebration.com/sunrise-blog/?p=135
Jack Simmons
A friend reminded me yesterday that it is supposed to be safe to plant flowers after Mother’s Day. She lost her entire garden in the snow.
My forecast for April was warming spurts from the 1st, 8th and 17/18th, cooling towards the month end, with a return of rain, after a very dry month. The next uplift was forecasted to be from the 2nd week in May (moderate), and intesifying from the 17/18th, and again from around the 25th.
Ulric Lyons says:
May 13, 2010 at 6:03 am
And because it is all astronomically forced, I can look at this level of detail, backwards in history with uncanny accuracy. Forewards is very interesting too. *
Weather is not climate. Recall a few weeks ago that a cloud of ash covered Europe for awhile. To see a cold outbreak like this follow the ash-event on the other side of the globe (think westerly), I’m not too surprised.
Diesel,
Are you suggesting that the weather knew in October that the volcano was going to erupt in April?
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/WaterTDeptUS.png
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1048&filename=1255352257.txt
GAIA knows the future. But models only can see three days in advance.
To all those in the USA complaining of the cold weather, move north to the Canadian tundra. Temperatures there have been 5-8C above average, yesterday at Churchill (Hudsons Bay) it was 17C (average 3C).
Globally March 2010 was the 4th warmest on record and the number one for ocean temperature .
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100420225712.htm
The weather in the north west USA is not an indicator of the temperatures of the rest of the world (that tiny bit of land outside of the USA)
I find this blog post quite amusing. “Deniers” scream foul when the media points out hot weather then use exactly the same tactic when cold weather appears. Kind of ruins Steves’ credibilty imho.
P.S. I am neither for or against AGW yet, I just like good science.
Cris,
The Canadian tundra is a big place. The northernmost sections were 5-10C below normal yesterday.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/ANIM/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.30.gif
Kind of ruins your credibility imho.
This article is about predictions made for the US and the UK, so clearly the Canadian tundra must be what I was talking about. Right?
Cris says:
May 13, 2010 at 7:46 am
Suits me fine. The global figure fits my solar forecast, those weak jets have been dumping some cold Polar air in some regions, do an animation from the 21st April;
http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/archive/jetstream_archive.html
The Arctic has warmed.
Trenberth: “Where’s the warming?”
Still searching for the bogeyman? In the real world, climate obviously doesn’t work the way Trenberth thinks it does. Unbelievable. And this guy gets paid a lot of our tax dollars to be so obviously wrong that a fifth grader could be more informed.
Study thermodynamics Kevin. Look for large thermal masses. Sheesh.
If Trenberth represents “science,” god help us. We might as well go back to primitive myths to explain climate.
Cris says:
May 13, 2010 at 7:46 am
To all those in the USA complaining of the cold weather, move north to the Canadian tundra. Temperatures there have been 5-8C above average, yesterday at Churchill (Hudsons Bay) it was 17C (average 3C).
Are you sure you’ve looking at the right Churchill? Also, Churchill is not on the tundra.
Cris says:
May 13, 2010 at 7:46 am
Also have a look from 7th January 2010, for 20 day animation:
http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/archive/jetstream_archive.html
and relate to Arctic temperatures:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/times?plot=temps&alert=1
Diesel says:
May 13, 2010 at 7:08 am
Weather is not climate.
And by that logic, neither was Albert Einstein a member of the human race.
Over time, Einstein said a lot about man himself, being part of it.
By itself, weather (as a point in time) does not say a whole lot about climate.
Over a period time, however Weather has a lot to say about climate.
Which is why some have resorted to playing games with the data.
I prefer to call that game ‘Clouding the Observational Record’.
Einstein was an astute observer, and what some of us do here is to observe how the Judgement of Truth & Knowledge is
summarily dashed against the rocks, by the Weather itself.
rbateman
Climate exists only inside computer models. It is nature that doesn’t understand what it is supposed to be doing.
On the Departure from normal temperature graphic, I would like to know where the data is coming from for the norther portion of New York State, in particular the spot that is dark red or maroon. That is where I live and first of all there is no way we are anywhere near 5 degrees above normal temperatures. This has been an average to slightly below average winter/spring, and last fall was way below average. (I don’t keep weather records, I judge the temperature by how much wood I have to burn to keep my house warm. I am up a lot from last season.)
Secondly there is nothing there. Judging from what I can tell from the map the area that is darker red is mostly forest. Take it from me there is not a whole lot up here. Not that that would mean there shouldn’t be higher temperatures, just that I ‘ll bet the temperature data for that very large area is all coming from one station.
Ulric Lyons says:
May 13, 2010 at 6:03 am
“My forecast for April was warming spurts from the 1st, 8th and 17/18th, cooling towards the month end, with a return of rain, after a very dry month. The next uplift was forecasted to be from the 2nd week in May (moderate), and intesifying from the 17/18th, and again from around the 25th.”
Its looking good here: http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast