By Steven Goddard
I found a computer simulation of Arctic ice produced by The University Of Washington, which struck me as being particularly disconnected from reality.
This group is forecasting that September extent will be lower than last year.
Below is their simulation map.
After watching their map animate, I noticed something which bothered me. They are showing that by August 18, all ice will be gone north of Barrow, AK.
The problem is that NSIDC shows 3+ year old ice in that region:
The computer model is predicting that 3+ year old ice (which is probably in excess of 10 feet thick) is going to melt by early August. That seems rather far fetched. Below is an overlay of the NSIDC map and the U of W simulation for August 18. Note all the multi-year ice that needs to melt.
Last June, temperatures in Barrow averaged 35F. In July they averaged 44F. It is a tall order to melt 10 feet of ice at those temperatures. This is how Barrow looks today:
I am a big fan of computer models – when they produce useful information. Garbage in, garbage out.