NCAR's missing heat – they could not find it any-where

Just another epicycle…

“He wasn’t there again today,
How I wish he’d go away.”
Like the heat

Sounds like a travesty to me

In most fields of science, people develop theories based around observations.
In climate science, people frequently seem to craft the data to conform to their theory.

1) If Joules are “missing” now, in 2010, why does Dr. Trenberth believe that there were not hidden or missing Joules in, say, 1910, which were steadily released over the past 100 years to deceive Dr.s Mann, Trenberth, Jones, Hansen and Mr. Gore into believing the planet was warming due to accumulation of plant food in the atmosphere? Is it at all possible that the last century of heating been due to release of hidden heat?
2) Re: the statement “Earth’s surface temperatures have largely leveled off in recent years. Yet melting glaciers and Arctic sea ice, along with rising sea levels, indicate that heat is continuing to have profound effects on the planet.”
How can Dr. Trenberth and his co-authors continue to use declining Arctic ice as evidence of a “profound effect” today, in 2010, when Arctic ice has steadily increased since 2007? Glacier melt (natural rate)? Rising sea levels (steady)?

Dr. Trenberth could do like astronomers, and theorize that there is DARK HEAT building up, an exotic form that we cannot feel or measure. As with Deep Thought (in the HGTTG series), there should be 750,000 years of employment for the Alarmists if they can get this going.

Have they looked in space yet?

“However, I do not see how such large amounts of heat could have transited to depths below 700m since 2005 without being detected.”
Osama bin Laden is using it to heat his cave.
Or Bernie Madoff has it.
This is truly insane. But only if you ignore the word “believed”…
“Current observational tools cannot account for roughly half of the heat that is believed to have built up on Earth in recent years”
In other words, we still can’t figure out where Saddam hid those darn WMDs, but we’re sure they are there.

BB King wrote about it:
The heat is gone,
The heat is gone away
The heat is gone, baby
The heat is gone away
You know you think I’m wrong, baby
And I’ll be sorry someday

Yep, heat balance is the key (or before some physicist comes along and bops us all on the head, the Earths internal energy + kinetic [does that cover it?] energy balance with the rest of the Universe is the key.)

You know Anthony, your artistic talent is really blossoming with these images, and now poetry! 🙂
I’m going to guess that the heat jumped into the mantle, and that’s why iceland popped.

WOW, not one word of the ocean salinity changes!

“Some of the missing heat appears to be going into the observed melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as Arctic sea ice, the authors say.”….huh? Are they watching the same ice we are? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/11/visualizing-changes-in-arctic-ice-since-the-2007-record-low/#more-18362
And then there was the story about more sea ice in the Antarctic…..Haven’t heard much about Greenland lately, but I’d suspect if the Arctic sea ice is increasing, so too would Greenland’s…….
But, wait, I’ve got it!!!! It went to the volcanoes in Iceland and that’s why we witnessed the first of many eruptions!!! Witness the previous article here on WUWT!!! Should I call Kevin and tell him where it went?

Magic?

That’ll be dark heat then.

Violent Femmes.
I should be ashamed.

Kevin Trenberth could not possibly know the answer to the final question posed because the data is not robust enough as stated, but it is obvious that the amount of energy stored there would be the imbalance he calculates less the V.s paper estimates because he thinks the heat is missing.
You see this is how they model AGW, and how they continue to work; they calculate everything they can account for and assign the remainder to GHG concentrations, and in this case to deep ocean heat content.
SOP 2.0

Assuming this heat is missing and not just missed in the analysis and measurements, I think it is best that we spend some time and money on finding it. I guess getting that funding requires getting the attention of the politicians that seem more interested in going to Mars then understanding our home planet. If I remember my physical oceanography, admittedly a good number of years back, the understanding of deep currents was less then satisfactory. I remind everyone that making any predictions and prognostications based on a poor understanding and inadequate models is most unhelpful.

I agree with Trenberth position on this. There seems to be heat coming into the system we cannot account for. A _lot_ of heat.
Unfortunately, Trenberth himself disagreed with Trenberth’s (current) position when he wrote his paper on the energy budget. He choose to disregard the heat the satellites told us was there, and other measurements that didn’t give him the answer he (at the time) wanted, and instead went with the numbers Hansen’s climate model gave.
A much more honest approach would have been to simply state we don’t know how much heat is coming into and leaving the Earth and we can’t confidently create an energy budget from the variety of possible answers we currently have.

So if it is missing; as in not there; why is there a belief that it exists.
Is this like somebody’s Playstation video-game says it should be there; but nobody’s thermomter can actually see it.
Wonderful direction this science is taking

I skipped ahead to the ending.
*spoiler alert*
The missing Joules are in a U-Store-It in Santa Monica.

Anthony, sorry but your poetry is catching:
They seek it here
they seek it there
they seek it d**** well everywhere
they know the heat
must be somewhere
if we just take sufficient care
we’ll find its footprint trace somewhere
there’ll be no more decline to hide
and no more sceptics to deride
our labours in a higher cause
or say our graphs are only noise
the public will regain their trust
and rapldly endorse the thrust
of science settled – like the dust.

I think that this says it all:
“Until 2003, the measured heat increase was consistent with computer model expectations.”
So it must now be instrumentation errors.
Was this inconsistency pointed out??
Hard to believe that the real problem is obvious and yet ignored. This is what happens when climate religion is combined with a fat paycheck. A clear inconsistency, yet how many on pro-AGW websites will notice.

It is a travesty that we cannot find that heat.

‘Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo are not recognizing’
They appear not to accept that mother earth heats the oceans from within, i.e. that the oceans heat from below. Christ none of these hobnobs know where all the heat comes from in details, and that’s why their cute, but useless, models suck so bad.

[quote George E. Smith (15:55:01) :]
So if it is missing; as in not there; why is there a belief that it exists.
{/quote]
It shows up in the satellites. The amount of missing heat, according to the CERES satellite, is more than 6 times the current estimated effect of global warming.

The heat has to be there, their models prove it. But they can’t find it.
We already had ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy – somewhere in the universe.
Now we can add ‘dark heat’ – somewhere on earth.

What else could it be, the models are never wrong?
Call it dark heat and hit the Gong.
Check the instruments? They’re ‘out there’ drifting along with the calibration electronics. Can’t get to them.
Launch the backup or hit the Reset button.
You cannot measure that which does not exist, and the search for the missing heat is a snipe hunt caught in an infinite loop.
Press ctrl-C to Exit.

I believe the excess joules have transited the earth’s crust and superheated the magma. Perhaps to millions of degrees c.
This “global warming” has resulted in superheated magma which is now boiling though thin spots in Iceland, you may call them Volcanoes.
The volcanic ash plume resulting in Iceland has caused the grounding of all commercial flights in Europe.
Truly, Global Warming IN ACTION. What more proof do you need? A Tsunami?

Missing heat = Found Funding

I would like to thank Kevin Trenberth for pointing out the 1st truth that any empirical scientist learns the hard way. Don’t start talking about data being wrong and not fitting your theory if you haven’t even bothered to characterise the mechanisms behind your theory in the first place. Saying there has to be heat when you can’t even show measurements of the basic driver of your theory or from verified principles that there should be heat, should force one to pause. Not start throwing the toys out of the pram. When I was an eleven year-old cheeky brat on holiday in Australia with my family, my mum bought me a keyring at a market one day, to subtley make her point that I was being a cheeky wee so and so and know it all. It said:
“Be sure brain is in gear before engaging mouth”
It is certainly a multi-layered phrase

If nature is acting different than a model, then the model is wrong.
Trash it, folks.
Stop selling it as “perfect” and only some heat is hidden somewhere you don’t remember. People are not that stupid.
Thank you for making this obvious, Prof. Pielke Sr.

Anthony, I take it the guy’s do not know the significance of currents that move heat around and the absence of this heat means some very nasty weather can be born from warm air and cold water.
Salt being a crystal plays a very significant role in how deep solar penetration of heat can go. Also too much salt can effect evaporation cycles.

old construction worker (15:16:58) :
“Have they looked in space yet?”
I thought that’s how most of them did their work.

Guess who said this?
“the fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a
travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.”
Right, it was Kevin Trenberth in his now famous email to M. Mann, Phil Jones, Gavin Schmidt, James Hansen, etc., etc. on October 12, 2009, which was incidentally, my ex-wife’s birthday.
It would appear he has been looking for missing heat for months, and I find it hard to believe that none of his cohorts have been of any help.
I think it’s a travesty!!

I think it’s pretty obvious that there is a conspiracy among the red neck deniers to steal the heat and store it in their basements, garages and outhouses just so that they can continue to drive their SUVs and rape the earth.

I thought it was settled science where the heat went. Al Gore said himself that just a short distance under your feet the earth is a million degrees. A few years ago it was only a few thousand degrees.

Like Kim mentioned earlier…
The Mystery of Global Warming’s Missing Heat – March 19, 2008
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025
“Kevin Trenberth at the National Center for Atmospheric Research says [the missing heat is] probably going back out into space. The Earth has a number of natural thermostats, including clouds, which can either trap heat and turn up the temperature, or reflect sunlight and help cool the planet.”
It would be interesting to know why Trenberth doesn’t consider this to probable now, particularly if they can’t find the heat anywhere else.
Also, if “the Earth’s surface temperatures have largely leveled off in recent years,” why is every month the warmest since records began?

As I understand it, there is an imbalance between the incoming heat, and the outgoing heat, at least as it is being measured.
I would address the following questions, in order:
1. Do we know that our measurements are accurate? Do we have a control measurement to calibrate the tools?
2. Are we aware of all methods of heat exhaustion (not sure if that is an appropriate word here) from the planet? Is there a mechanism whereby heat is transferred, say, to the poles, and it is not being properly measured leaving there?
3. Is there any way this heat could have been transformed into movement of some kind, such as increased current speeds or suchlike?
Now, I am only speculating from a standpoint of limited physical understanding, but as an intelligent amateur, I would have thought these (or similar) would be the first places to examine. Having said that, perhaps they have already, and are now moving on to more complex and very much less likely possibilities whereby the heat is hidden in some way.
Or perhaps they have an unshakable religious belief, and are attempting to fit all perceived data to that belief. That has some serious precedents in human thinking.

And this explains why the oceans have risen in recent years. Wait……..???

1DandyTroll (16:09:09) :

‘Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo are not recognizing’
They appear not to accept that mother earth heats the oceans from within, i.e. that the oceans heat from below. Christ none of these hobnobs know where all the heat comes from in details, and that’s why their cute, but useless, models suck so bad.

If that were true, surely we’d be seeing more heat leaving than arriving?
I agree, it must be true to some extent. The interior of the Earth is cooling (all those ‘millions of degrees’ have to go somewhere 😉 and thus the oceans, and indeed the land, must be warming. I suspect the overall rate of this warming is irrelevant compared to the Sun’s input however. The sun heats up the land about 10C to 20C each and every day. You have to go a long way down before you get any heat from the interior, and most land below a few metres remains around 3C or 4C at all times, as I understand it.

The AGW hypothesis assumes that Downward Longwave Radiation from Anthopogenic Greenhouse Gases has a measurable impact on OHC. It does not.
As posted here at WUWT and linked many times, Ocean Heat Content (0-700meters) is dominated by ENSO in most ocean basins:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/09/enso-dominates-nodc-ocean-heat-content.html
OHC is a product of ENSO, sea level pressure (North Atlantic Oscillation), and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) in the North Atlantic:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/10/north-atlantic-ocean-heat-content-0-700.html
And OHC is a function of sea level pressure (NPI) in the North Pacific:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/12/north-pacific-ocean-heat-content-shift.html
Like Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, the North Atlantic OHC has the highest trend over the term of the NODC OHC data. The North Atlantic contributed more than 30% of the total rise in OHC though it represents about 15% of the global ocean surface area. The decline in OHC over the past few years is dominated by the drop in the North Atlantic.
http://i50.tinypic.com/2eexa8w.png
If the North Atlantic OHC continues its decline for a multidecadal period, it is unlikely that global OHC will rise significantly over that period. I briefly touched on this in the most recent OHC update, under the heading of BIG IFS:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/02/ohc-linear-trends-and-recent-update-of.html

“”” magicjava (16:14:56) :
[quote George E. Smith (15:55:01) :]
So if it is missing; as in not there; why is there a belief that it exists.
{/quote]
It shows up in the satellites. The amount of missing heat, according to the CERES satellite, is more than 6 times the current estimated effect of global warming. “””
I see your point; perhaps I should rephrase my comment:-
If the heat is there as in; it shows up in the satellites; why is there a belief that it is missing ?
Now that should correct my former error.

The all powerful models predicted the increase in temperatures and they also predicted melting icecaps, glaciers, etc, so the missing heat cannot be there as it was already predicted by the expected heat anyway. Saying that the predicted heat AND the missing heat is going towards melting ice sheets and glaciers etc is double counting it, unless we were seeing more melting than was forecast – which we are clearly not.

Dear Sir,
Your doggerel is strongly reminiscent of Theodor Geisel
I could not, would not, find it in a house.
I could not, would not, find it with a mouse.
I could not find it with a fox.
I could not find it in a box.
I could not find it here or there.
I could not find it anywhere.
I could not find the heat my man.
I could not find it, Sam-I-am.
My congratulations Sir and my apologies to Dr. Seuss.
Helen Hawkins (15:13:32) :
Us Red Necks in the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy (and proud of it) say: “God is Great, Beer is Good, and People are Crazy”.
http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/billy-currington-god-is-great-beer-is-good-and-people-are-crazy/7c12e49c6f825a3c07da7c12e49c6f825a3c07da-1597228056817
Regards,
Steamboat Jack

I’m sure that more taxes and carbon credit trading will find the missing heat.
Has anyone thought to measure the hot air coming out of Al Gore? Maybe that’s why he looks so bloated lately. Yes, that’s where it is!

ScientistForTruth: May I call you Elijah?
All others: If the heat is hiding in the ocean, then thermal expansion would have flooded New York City. And Major Bloomberg’s plaNYC would have been right after all.

I recall a recent discovery where it was found that thunderstorms along the tropics release much more heat into the upper atmosphere than previously realized.
Unless you are able to measure all the heat released from all large thunderstorms, you are going to get the energy balance wrong.
So the heat is not hidden, it just sneaked out through the thousands of daily atmospheric windows we call thunderstorms.

I visualize the oceans as a layer of sweat on the earth just like your body, as heat is absorbed the ocean surface evaporates, change of state heat loss.
Heat does not readily travel vertically in the oceans as different temperature masses of water are different densities and they form thermocline interfaces.

This is the problem with an ‘energy budget’! The supposition that ‘energy in/energy out = thermal state’ requires that all energy sinks (attractors) that aren’t thermal are known and can be excluded from the energy budget.
Looking for unaccounted heat in deep ocean can’t really be justified. When you think about it water begins to expand again when it’s cooled to more than ~4°C, so there’s only an ~8°C range at most that can ‘hide’ heat in great ocean depths. There’s a large volume there though.
Best regards, suricat.

you will not have to worry about the missing heat if the KATLA volcano erupts we will be looking for the heater

Haven’t we done all this before? Here are the facts.
1. Some glaciers are melting, some aren’t. Local variations are the most important factor.
2. Arctic sea ice has been expanding since 2007, and has reached the average.
3. Antarctic sea ice has been increasing, and is above the average.
4. There has been no statistically-measurable increase in temperature for 10 or more years.
Trenberth, there is no heat hiding in the ocean. You are grasping at straws, sir, and making yourself look foolish, or more foolish than usual. Give it up, man.

Can anyone say, instrument drift?
DaveE.

Surely if there was substantial missing heat stored in the deep ocean, we’d be able to see it by the effect of thermal expansion on sea levels. It would be interesting to do the calculation, but orf course we’d first need to know how much missing heat is being talked about.

Omg – its so EMBARRASSING! I feel sorry for them. But to highlight this with a PRESS RELEASE? “Attention – look how pathetic and stupid we are, clinging to our obviously flawed models”?
“It must be there, only we can’t see it, didn’t catch it as it transited the parts we CAN see, and – you need to be afraid of it!”
If I did science like that, I’d be fired.
Good LorD.

Some of that missing heat must have been hiding in my coffee cup this morning. Burnt my tongue it did….. and only last week it ruined my toast.
It would seem this missing heat is more insidious and malevolent than we first thought!…..;-)

This press release is a barometer of the sad state of climate science. Speculations put forth with insufficient data should be confined to the private conversations of scientists as they banter back and forth in smoke filled–I mean CO2 filled–rooms.
Instead scientists are lending their personal credibility to such speculation in an effort leverage their own theories and maintain public credibility (and, if I may be so jaded, funding).
What is your hypothesis? What is your data? What is the criterion of falsification?

Ya, global warming can’t be seen because it’s sinking in the ocean. I guess it’s sinking because it hit an iceberg named ClimateGate.

I shake my head at the foolishness of saying global warming is sinking into the oceans.

There is no missing heat. It never was there, except in the models. When are they going to admit that?

Makes you wonder how they build climate models if they can’t get the global heat balance correct. “Fudge factors” perhaps ?

“Either the satellite observations are incorrect, says Trenberth, or, more likely, large amounts of heat are penetrating to regions that are not adequately measured…..”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Kevin Trenberth would have been good at measuring the Emperor’s new clothes.
😉

John from CA (17:10:00) :
TGSG (17:12:55) :
Caleb (17:34:13) :
My previous reply was kinda short. here’s a more detailed one.
1) The CERES satellite shows the amount of energy entering the Earth at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) to be 6 watts/meter -2 more than the the amount of energy leaving the Earth at the TOA.
2) The current estimate for Global Warming is 0.9 Watts/meter -2, so the data from CERES is more than 6 times there current estimate.
3) There are several other ways to measure the heat energy imbalance. None of them give the same answer as any other method.
4) All of the methods have large margins of error, to the point where you can ignore the data if yo so choose.
5) It is my own personal belief that the CERES satellite is somewhere in the neighborhood of correct.
6) If the CERES satellite is correct, then we don’t know where the extra heat entering the Earth is going. This is because…
7) We know where the extra heat _isn’t_ going. It’s not being absorbed by CO2 or Water Vapor. It’s not showing up in there surface, troposphere, or stratosphere temperatures. It’s not _anywhere_ where we currently measure temperature. Hence it’s called “missing”.
8) Trenberth enumerated a few places we don’t currently measure heat and thus these areas may contain this “missing” heat.

I’m waiting for a video to be released of Kevin Trenberth searching under all of the furniture in a conference room, looking for the missing heat. (Reminiscent of the video of George W. Bush doing the same, in search of Saddam Hussein’s missing WMD’s.)
Hint: Mr. Trenberth should consult Al Gore, who knows where the missing heat is stored, i.e. the temperature of the core of the earth is now several million degrees.

Little Bo-Peep has lost her heat
And doesn’t know where to find it
Leave it alone
And it will come home
Dragging its joules behind it
Seriously, this whole sorry episode reminds me of the soap powder adverts from the nineties along the lines of “our powder destroys hidden odours”. Hidden odours? You know; the ones you can’t smell. People caught on and the brand ceased to be within the decade – will AGW go the same way?

Dear Roger……..
“Our article highlights the discrepancies that should be resolved with better data and analysis, and improved observations must play a key role.”
Kevin
============================
The excerpt above needs to be sent to the Library of Congress,
as a record of our current ….dilemma, regarding Catastrophic AGW.

I wouldn’t have thought it was possible for this “missing heat” to hide away in the depths of the oceans.
The ocean deep is rematkably uniformly around 1-2DegC, wether near the poles or the equator.
Physically impossible for heat to transfer into deep oceans.
But I do agree some heat has been sequestering away since 1998 in the shallow waters (down to 100mtrs, the depth sunlight can penetrate) . THAT’S THE HEAT THAT’S BEEN EXHAUSTED OUT BY EL NINO.
Once that heat is gone, and the low activity of the sun, brrrr baby brrrr for the next 30 years.

“The heat will come back to haunt us sooner or later,”
Rising from its hiding place in the Deeps, bringing retribution to mankind for its sins of modernity ?
Like, uh, a giant, radioactive firebreathing reptile ??
So we are edging closer to a new paradigm – the Godzilla Hypothesis of planetary balancing mechanisms ???
Cooool !!!

Maybe the missing heat is under the thimble where the pea is supposed to be.

Well, the missing heat may be below 700m, but that’s only because it’s “rotten” heat…

Have they tried…
“Ally Ally In Come Free”
or
“Come out, come out, wherever you are?”
Apparently they don’t know the rules of the Climate Heat “Hide and Seek” Game.

It had gone out to space, from whence it came.

I thought the heat is just starting with the various investigations underway? Monckton is just warming up his instruments to apply the heat.
“Current observational tools cannot account for roughly half of the heat that is believed to have built up on Earth in recent years, according to a “Perspectives” article in this week’s issue of Science.”
It’s not heat, it’s “believed heat”. It’s “conjectured heat”. It’s predicted “heat” based upon, ahem, models meaning it’s “soothsaid heat”. “Illusionary” indeed.
How about getting BETTER TOOLS for better observations before spouting off about your pet hypothesis? Oh right, GREEN grant $$$MONEY$$$.
It’s fine to have a hypothesis, but please indicate that that is what it is. It’s like the NOAA et. al. temperature anomaly graphs that use fabricated data via interpolation without labeling indicating that the visualization is based upon invented, fabricated data via statistical interpolation.
Where in the world is Joules and where did he hide the heat? Joules who? How do you hide heat? It want to radiate in all directions by default. Water or air or ice or magma or rock would need to move it.
“I’m going to guess that the heat jumped into the mantle, and that’s why Iceland popped.”
Yup must be that a cold zone (oceans) can contribute HEAT to a hotter zone (mantle with hot magma)! That’s some physics I’d like to see!
“Heat transfer is the transition of thermal energy from a hotter mass to a cooler mass. When an object is at a different temperature than its surroundings or another object, transfer of thermal energy, also known as heat flow, or heat exchange, occurs in such a way that the body and the surroundings reach thermal equilibrium; this means that they are at the same temperature. Heat transfer always occurs from a higher-temperature object to a cooler-temperature one as described by the second law of thermodynamics or the Clausius statement. Where there is a temperature difference between objects in proximity, heat transfer between them can never be stopped; it can only be slowed.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_transfer
THE THREE METHODS OF HEAT TRANSFER in RAP

Is Kevin Trenberth suggesting a NEW way of heat transfer? Via entangled quantum physics teleporting the heat across ocean layers maybe? Or maybe it’s sneaky heat?
““The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” Trenberth to Mann, ClimateGate email:
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1048”
Can’t account for it according to what exactly? Why does Kevin Trenberth think there is travesty in the lack of heat? Nature isn’t here to confirm our theories, she could care less about us. It is obvious from his comment that he’s trying to find the missing heat otherwise his hypothesis crumbles to the ground in pieces. I wonder how long it will be before some of these guys give up on their hypothesis? When will they realize that their hypothesis has been falsified by Nature? What will it take for them to say the hypothesis is falsified and needs to be toss aside?
Kevin Trenberth, what specifically is your hypothesis? In full detail please.
Do the alleged climate scientists even have a notion that their hypothesis is supposed to have a test for falsification? What is their Null Hypothesis?
I’ve directly asked the following (plus a number of other) questions point blank to at least one climate scientist who works that the National Center for Atmospheric Research and haven’t received an answer yet. They don’t seem to want to answer these sorts of basic questions fundamental to the scientific method. I’m still waiting for an answer to be fair.
(1) What is AGW?
(2) How can the alleged AGW hypothesis be falsified?
(3) What is the Null Hypothesis that you work with?
DirkH thanks for the violent fems video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT4rRUONgRU). One of my favorite 100 songs that was missing, now I feel the heat of it again!!!
Heat that haunts with taunts by Trenberth et. al..
Cudos to Craig Moore for Liquid Heet! It goes where you need it!
Joule thieves is by far the best explanation. “Kevin may just be posturing. Now he goes and gets a 13 million dollar grant and looks for the joule thief.” One can buy a lot of jewels with the funds from the search for the missing joules! Nice. How do I get into that racket? Oh wait, I can’t take the heat that might come back to haunt me from the travesty of sticking to a hypothesis regardless of the counter evidence. That’s why hypotheses are supposed to have tests that falsify them, so one doesn’t get struck blind by a pet hypothesis that cripples one’s mental capacity for critical reasoning!
“Whom the gods wish to destroy they first drive mad.” Does this apply to those, such as Kevin Trenberth, who stick to their hypothesis through thick and thin? Is the real travesty that their alleged AGW hypothesis has no falsification tests, thus they are like flies to a light? It’s the light, it’s the heat, move towards it, fast before it’s lost again! ZAP! ZAP! Nature zaps all hypotheses that are false, dead, dead, dead!
The Mystery of Global Warming’s Missing Heat – March 19, 2008. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025
“Kevin Trenberth at the National Center for Atmospheric Research says [the missing heat is] probably going back out into space. The Earth has a number of natural thermostats, including clouds, which can either trap heat and turn up the temperature, or reflect sunlight and help cool the planet.”
Isn’t that what Lindzen and Choi have shown and quantify in their paper, “On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data”?
Does this mean that Trenberth is agreeing with Lindzen?
“If you draw a boundary between the outer atmosphere and space and treat the planet (with atmosphere) as a closed system, at equilibrium the amount of energy released through the boundary must be equal to the amount of energy passing into the boundary from the sun. As a baseline, everyone assumes that the amount of energy passing into the system from the sun remains constant. If the temperature of the system inside the boundary is to increase, it is absolutely necessary that the total energy passing through the boundary must go down, at least temporarily, permanently trapping the energy in the system and raising the system temperature. Dr. Lindzen’s paper shows that once a temperature increase occurs — regardless of the reason — the system responds by moving out of equilibrium and releasing more energy into space than is provided by the sun. Thus, the temperate falls from the new (perturbed) temperature to a level between the initial equilibrium and the post-perturbation temperatures, until the equilibrium is reestablished.
Any model that results in a system temperature above the initial perturbation (above roughly 1C for doubling of CO2) MUST, mathematically, do so by reducing net radiation released into space below the equilibrium point so that the additional energy can accumulate and the temperature can rise. Only by reducing net energy released into space can the system heat itself. All other forms of heating must, by definition, simply move energy within the closed system resulting in redistribution of energy but no net heating. The author of the note above notes “Models that assumed otherwise [from increased radiation resulting from increased temperature] would have near infinite temperatures.” Dr. Lindzen addresses this explicitly in his paper. “Indeed, Figure 3c suggests that models should have a range of sensitivities extending from about 1.5C to infinite sensitivity (rather than 5C as commonly asserted), given the presence of spurious positive feedback. However, response time increases with increasing sensitivity [Lindzen and Giannitsis, 1998], and models were probably not run sufficiently long to realize their full sensitivity.” – Jim, http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2009/11/lindzen-choi.html.
For your further enjoyment, where the joules went and how: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuJI2VBiqic.
Kevin Trenberth et. al., NATURE, as in The Objective Reality of Nature and not the magazine, is always the final judge of a hypothesis, not your peers! Stop paying attention to your peers and start paying attention to Nature! Thanks.

I know where it be. the Kraken ate it, ate the heat, and we all know the Kraken very rarely breaks 1000 fathoms, unless it’s for revenge.
THe walker circoolation is gonna go Maelstrom, aargh.
It’s Doom, now all I need is a Disney contract. I smells an acadmey award and a Nobel Gunpowder Prize, on the wind Nor be Nor West.

You find Waldo and you will find the missing heat.

That great prophet George Orwell misnamed his book. It should have been 2010 not 1984. The sheer lunacy of the warmest cult defies description.
On another note, the literary tone of this blog has improved considerably since Climategate. We have people in this one thread writing poetry [including Anthony] and quoting BB King and the immortal Ella. I for one love it. So do my birdfeeder visitors who get more seed when I’m in a good mood.

Don’t worry Kevin, I just hooked up with me ol mate Nemo, as parte’s to the code and we will poon that monster heat eater fishy for yer, we will let yer cut it up to get the heat out.
But we needs some of them Grant Doublooms, act fast the world is doomed and only me and me matey Nemo can saves all the widows and orphans and Fancy swells as well polar bear cubs being ate by vultures.
Almost forgot,
Aaargh.

Jerome, the final “S” in “KISS” is what seems to be getting in the way of the alleged climate scientists implementing the “KISS” approach! [:)]

Oh, by the way I have an large collection of never used Write Only Memory (WOM) chips available, Large capacity, 1 Terabyte per chip, write time is 10 picoseconds, read time is infinite. IBM partnumber is: 1256useless-45-56-Jdp. Asking price is only $25.00 each, but I will take a good used Yugo in exchange for the entire lot.
Cheers, Kevin

The missing heat is in outer space. The so called “greenhouse theory” is a false premise. According to the second law of thermodynamics, heat can only be transmitted from a warmer object to a cooler object. The global warming alarmists say that CO2 traps heat radiated from the earth and this heat is re-radiated back to earth (Impossible!), because the earth is at a higher temperature than the “so called greenhouse layer in the atmosphere”. This heat is simple radiated out to the “night sky” (outer space). End of argument!

MattN (18:51:02) :
There is no missing heat. It never was there, except in the models. When are they going to admit that?
Maybe when they can’t make a living from global warming anymore.

Oh well, I will just have to take my fiction writing skills somewhere else, I heard a rumor there are science fiction jobs opening up at Hadley CRU and even NASA.
CSIRO and BOM in Australia may need a good science fiction essayist, Not the same money unfortunately.

The heat isn’t missing, it is clearly present on NOAA’s temperature anomaly map for March present between Canada and Greenland. It seems Climategate has got the “Team” so spooked that they no longer communicate with each other the way they use to. Otherwise Trenberth and NCAR would have been told as much by NOAA.
/Sarc off

There it is!
http://www.monticellodrug.com/products/heet.html

“It is so sad to see Cognitive Dissonance of this magnitude present itself. AGW theory as truth has become so solidified in the minds of so many, there is virtually no cure for the completely infected. Cognitive dissonance prevails in those individuals and their minds cannot reconcile a more valid explanation other than AGW.”
M J N
The AGW Theory Induces Mass Psychosis in Large Numbers of Vulnerable Individuals.

Re: magicjava (Apr 16 19:03),
Thank you for this precis.

1) The CERES satellite shows the amount of energy entering the Earth at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) to be 6 watts/meter -2 more than the the amount of energy leaving the Earth at the TOA.
2) The current estimate for Global Warming is 0.9 Watts/meter -2, so the data from CERES is more than 6 times there current estimate.
The statement is that they were expecting the TOA measurement to confirm the 0.9 global warming retention due to CO2. Instead it looks as if something else is retaining heat.
How could the CERES measurements be wrong?
Do you have a link to the measurements and the method used?
They might be missing radiation leaving (infrared mainly), or measuring too much entering ( large spectrum), or mislabeling radiation as incoming when it is outgoing, or…
The reason I would doubt t the CERES measurement/calibration is that if this keeps up, we will reach the boilng point soon :).
The energy balance argument is a very old argument ( we got hubble’s constant out of it). No matter where the heat is hiding, there should not be such an imbalance for the long term.

To retool an old proverb, “If you can’t find the heat — get out of the ocean.”
Assuming that there is indeed missing heat (and not just over-fudged figures that create an accounting problem by always rounding upwards when exact amounts are not known), then I would suggest that the increased heat is in biomass. Heat does not always translate into delta-T changes in fluid form. Heat energy is converted into chemical form as biomass. That’s the difference between wood and its component elements floating in the atmosphere: wood is stored heat energy. To release the heat, burn the wood.
As has been documented in several peer-reviewed articles, there has been a steady increase in biomass in key world systems over recent decades, almost certainly well-correlated with increases in CO2.
Could it be … naw, that would be too much! … that when the amount of heat stored up in biomass due to increased CO2 is accounted for, it will be found that increased CO2 has a long-term NEGATIVE effect on latent heat in the environment, which leads to a net negative effect on temperature? I wonder if the lag-time for this effect to manifest fully is, oh, let’s say about 800 years? Wouldn’t that be telling!

I’ve caught the lyrical fever as well. Sung by Kevin Trainwreck to Glenn Frey’s “The Heat is On”:
The heat is gone, gone real deep,
Inside my head, makes sense to me,
But that Pielke’s loud, wish he’d subside,
The pressure’s high to keep the theory alive,
‘Cause the heat is gone.
[insert Mann on Sax]
Oh-wo-no, oh-wo-no,
Nowhere close to knowing where energy’s going to.
(Alternate: Caught up in the FOIA, gonna need more funds from you.)
Oh-wo-no, oh-wo-no,
Tell me can you find it?
Tell me can you find it?
Tell me can you find it?
The heat is gone, the heat is gone, the heat is gone,
Yeah a travesty, the heat is – Doh! Doh! Doh! Doh! – gone!

[quote anna v (22:03:49) :]
Do you have a link to the measurements and the method used?
[/quote]
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/TFK_bams09.pdf
Page 3 (labeled page 313 for some reason) briefly discusses the CERES data and its relationship to the energy budget.
[quote]
They might be missing radiation leaving (infrared mainly), or measuring too much entering ( large spectrum), or mislabeling radiation as incoming when it is outgoing, or…
[/quote]
Absolutely the CERES data could be wrong. That’s why I said it’s only my personal belief that it’s at least close to correct. While I’ve never seen satellite data that didn’t have issues, I tend to have much more confidence in satellite data than in land-based data.

Capn jack,
NIWA here in New Zealand are wantin’ good Post Normal writers, yea be welcome here down under.
We’re to the left of Australia, a suburb of Sydney, or a Duchy of Canberra or somesuch….
Kevin the Rudd be our Overlord in waitin’, while Little Johnny Key be our Underlord in Absentia, maybe you could be a scribe to the Lords of Fonterra, Dairy Miners they be.
The seams of full cream run deep in our loam, easy pickings for a hardworking man, or a dodgy Chinese conglomerate – whichever offers the lowest price for our treasures,….he be the winner.

IF kEVIN IS RIGHT WE MAY HAVE A HOT HALLOWEEN THIS YEAR!

When the question in that line

And why the sea is boiling hot

has been satisfactorily answered, will we then throw the might of scientific investigation into answering the puzzlement in the following line?

And whether pigs have wings.

Post Normal Science says we probably will.
p.s. Remember when you used to bend your mind to bringing reality to great visions, America? Such as going to the moon and thence the stars?
May I hope you are just taking a brief rest period?

Joule thieves, eh?
If I remember my movies correctly, the “Pink Panther” was a joule.
And who did they send out to track down that notorious joule thief?
No wonder they can’t find the missing heat…

We know the heat is missing.
Its a travesty we cannot measure it.
What we need are new instruments.
Thermometers are so yesterday!

My 2 cents-
1) The Team seems to have problems with both S’s in KISS.
2) The Team’s arrogance does not allow them to realize they are buying their own B***S***.
3) The Team is working directly for the POLS in a plot from “1984”.
Maybe 5 cents-

It’s a travesty that we can’t hide the decline but I’ll think of something nebulous and nefarious. Et Voilà