Global Warming and “The Early Spring” Part II

Guest post by Steven Goddard

https://i0.wp.com/news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46128000/jpg/_46128797_fcfe6bfa-ec94-44f3-94ec-edb52a60a151.jpg

Photo Credit : BBC News

Last April, I wrote an article titled Global Warming and “The Early Spring” which highlighted one of the favorite AGW myths, that CO2 is making winter warmer and spring arrive earlier.  Here is the 2010 UK update.

In 2005, the BBC wrote this article :

Wildlife winces at early spring.  A survey involving 65,000 wildlife sightings suggests that frogs and bumblebees are among the hardest hit. “Climate change is not something that is happening a million miles away – it is going on in our own back gardens,” said nature presenter Bill Oddie.

Here is one from Global Change Biology :

Early spring in Europe matches recent climate warming August 25, 2006 Conclusive proof that spring is arriving earlier across Europe than it did 30 years ago is published today in the journal Global Change Biology.

Real Climate wrote about it last year :

Breaking the silence about Spring.  Early Spring has the potential to be immensely influential, a real turning point in the popular appreciation of climate change impacts among laypersons and scientists alike. Read it.

http://www.climatehotmap.org/

England – Earlier first flowering date. One of the most comprehensive studies of plant species in Britain revealed that the average first flowering date of 385 British plant species has advanced by 4.5 days during the past decade compared with the previous four decades: 16% of species flowered significantly earlier in the 1990s than previously, with an average advancement of 15 days in a decade. These data reveal the strongest biological signal yet of climatic change. Flowering is especially sensitive to the temperature in the previous month, and spring-flowering species are most responsive (Fitter and Fitter, 2002).

From The Daily Mail

Riot of colour: As spring comes earlier and earlier each year, such species as hawthorn and hornbeam will cut off more and more light to the bluebell which will cause it to decline disastrously

* So how is that warm winter/early spring theory doing in 2010?

From The Guardian

Severe winter delays bluebell season National Trust predicts three-week wait for nature’s blue carpets

Usually from about now they spring up in the far south-west then spread like a Mexican wave across Britain. But the National Trust says today that nature-lovers could have to wait until the end of the month before carpets of English bluebells begin to appear in woodlands. The charity believes that after the coldest winter for more than 30 years the English bluebell season is likely to be up to three weeks late. The plants depend on warm ground temperatures and the prolonged frosts will have impacted upon their ability to grow.

From The Guardian

Small is fatal for our songbirds in Britain’s great winter freeze.  A survey by the public in Britain’s gardens reveals the toll on wildlife caused by weeks of Arctic conditions

Few people may have been wanting more evidence of the ferocity of recent weather. Nevertheless they got one from an unexpected source last week: the Big Garden Birdwatch. Organised by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), it involved members of the public reporting bird sightings in their gardens over the last weekend in January. More than half a million responses were received and a count showed precisely how this year’s winter – the coldest in 30 years – has taken a toll of the nation’s small songbirds, such as the goldcrest and the coal tit.

From The Guardian

Spring about to ‘explode’ in Britain, conservationists say Experts believe release of pent-up energy after such a long, hard winter could produce the most spectacular spring in years

From The BBC

Why is it going to be a stunning spring? I’s been the longest and coldest winter in years, but the pay-off will be a spectacular spring, conservationists say
Conclusion :  An early spring is climate, but apparently a late spring is just weather.  When can we expect retractions from The Guardian, BBC and Real Climate?

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182 thoughts on “Global Warming and “The Early Spring” Part II

  1. Catastrophic AGW appeantly stopped during the English 2009/2010, the coldest winter in 30 years, and the cold is just weather.

    Uh huh!

  2. Oh fiddle sticks!!

    Catastrophic AGW apparently stopped during the 2009/2010 English winter, the coldest in 30 years, and that the cold is just weather.

    Uh huh!

  3. “Wildlife winces at early spring”
    Sure, to refute this argument, you Just need count the corpses of the small animals in a harsh winter: Wildlife loves mild winters.

  4. Global warming, we see it before our eyes.
    Every Spring, when natural forces decide.

  5. The weather in my part of the UK has been cold, persistently so, for several months just as the weather has been warm for so many years before that.

    But, it’s the persistence of cold rather than the coldness that, to me, seems more noteworthy.

  6. “Last April, I wrote an article titled Global Warming and “The Early Spring” which highlighted one of the favorite AGW myths, that CO2 is making winter warmer and spring arrive earlier.”

    The piece that tried to make inferences about Global Warming from 7 days of May 2009 data from ‘selected’ areas representing less than 5% of the Earth’s surface?

    Reminds of the media hype on the other side. I guess that’s called ‘balance’ these days.

  7. There is no sense of proportion and of very recent climate history in my country anymore, the “we’re all doomed merchants” hold sway and the naysayers and realists are pooh-poohed.
    There are a bunch of gloom mongers who have a large following and are treated as demi gods in my country because they are ‘of the earth’ and gardening is like a religion here.
    There is no God given correct ‘time’ of year for early flowering plants, but in Britain it used ( since my childhood) to be snow drops and primroses in late Jan to early Feb followed by Crocuses in late Feb early March, then Daffs, Mar – April and Tulips and Bluebells in May, this was the sequence (usual but by no means always) in the North of England.
    This natural cycle has been earlier in recent years but then who can argue with mother earth?
    We have had in recent times some quite mild winters and very good it has been for the birds, flowers and bugs.
    So when BBC gardeners who have the attention span of some garden birds start pontificating on how the planet is changing and gaining considerable traction, I inwardly groan.
    But in some people’s small minds, a mild winter is a harbinger of greater and more serious consequences and put a few mild winters together and bingo! Man-made Global Warming.
    2009 was quite cold, 2010 was even more so and I find that spring seems to be finding it’s old rhythm quite nicely and we will have bluebells in May as we did in the past~ no panic!

  8. No no no. Early spring or late spring this is all due to man made climate change. Al Gore has blamed both hot and cold on climate change. There is nothing climate change can’t do!

  9. Steven…, in the case of Britain, it should be renamed thus: “The British Urban
    Heat Isles…” [BUHI] (The Mother of all Heat Islands)…Here in Sweden, the correlation of cold winters=late springs and mild winters=early springs is not that obvious as
    we have SW/W winds predominating…Snowcover here in Solna just NW, 3 km
    from Stockholm inner city arrived Dec 14 and in a few hundred sq metres down
    “my” hill, Framnäsbacken, “Huvudstafältet” aka Capetown Field, shadowed and
    windshielded, there is still 15-20 cm, and 2 cm new snow yesterday that
    covered the 4 m high mountains of old snow nearby, when will these monsters melt??
    Not very many days into January the evening tabloids started webb questions
    “Do you fancy more snow? Alt 1. Yes, I love it Alt 2. No, it’s enough…
    Late January: Alt 1 Yes, bring it on Alt 2. No Alt 3. I’ve already emigrated
    south…[Between the lines you could read this…But you get the idea] We had
    a long winter but only 7-8 days were sunny and cold which is nice, I still
    think at 54…

  10. One of the few places left in the British MSM to have your say about “climate change” is in the biggest-selling newspaper, the Murdoch-owned Sun.

    They are offering everyone who registers and logs in an opportunity to tell the politicians what they think. In case you missed it, the General Election is a mere month away -May 6th.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/mysun/2896598/No-green-light-for-eco-issues.html

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    TOP boffins have been warning of the perils of man-made climate change for years – and been met with a frosty reception. But as world leaders meet and scientists compare notes and cry for immediate action, MY Sun users on our news forum are giving alarm scares the cold shoulder.

    Do climate claims have you worried?

    TIREDAGE60 definitely knows exactly where he stands – alongside the sceptics:

    “For goodness sake, hasn’t anyone learnt yet what lying, thieving, cheating charlatans this government are and their capability to use any means necessary to extort more taxes out of us plebs, even if it means lying through their teeth?

    “Scientists are prepared to say whatever their paymaster wants them to say regarding climate change.

    “WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE! You’ve been had, big time! Accept it!”

    And yet Jekyll79 thinks he spots a flaw in the logic: “You make the assumption it is a conspiracy led by our government. As far as I am aware, climate change is a world wide issue. Not just something the Labour government dreamed up.”

    Conspiracy
    “The whole ‘hoax’ is just an international conspiracy to shake the pockets of the rich nations and give to the poor ones so they can waste it,” explains Wotsaname.

    Scientists do not know squat. They just follow the party line
    Brian615
    “If the technology really worked and it was so important governments would cover every roof in the land with photovoltaics… Talk about being ‘suckered’.”

    “Today’s scientists don’t know squat,” claims Brian615. “They just follow the party line so as not to upset the apple cart.”

    So egg-heads aren’t so hard to crack then?

    Zaust is not one to be preached at: “It’d take about five minutes’ research and half a brain to realise that climate change is no more proven than your average religion.

    “I have no doubt that trying to cut back is a good thing but the doomsayers really need to realise that there’s been NO ice at the poles many times before without the world ending.”

    That’ll be a comfort to the polar bears, I’m sure.

    Or maybe it’s all part of the circle of life? “This planet has gone through climate change since it was first formed. It will go through climate change again, no matter what mankind does,” insists Weefatshug.

    “This is not a new phenomenon. Ice core samples show that much bigger changes occurred in the past. Even the Gulf Stream switched off at one stage, causing an Ice Age in Europe.”

    Xanadu2012, however, is sceptical about the sceptics: “I think that many people who deny climate change exists are just afraid that they will have to make more compromises in their life rather than basing their beliefs on relevant facts.”

    Are you an eco worrier? Or does climate chaos leave you cold?
    Add your comment in the box below to join the debate
    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/mysun/2896598/No-green-light-for-eco-issues.html#ixzz0kIxD3LK7
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

  11. Yep earlier & earlier Springs etc, yawn, yawn! What contemptible arrogance mankind has to think that “nature” is unable to adapt to subtle changes in climate, like it has been doing for millenia! We’re the ones who are failing to adapt, not “nature”. As for the RSPB banging on & on about AGW & CC caused by mankind, causing the demise of so many birds, their habitat, their food supplies, they secretly admitted a little while ago that the demise of many a small bird in & around towns, was the increase in feral cats allowed to go wild by their stupid owners’ failure to look after them properly! Law of nature, too many predators = not enough food!

  12. Let’s check out a different basket of cherries…

    Halifax sun sears new record
    Last Updated: Monday, April 5, 2010 | 7:21 AM AT
    CBC News

    The hot, sunny weather in Halifax on Sunday turned out to be a record-breaker.

    The temperature registered 23 C at Halifax Stanfield International Airport, according to Environment Canada, which shatters the old record of 17.7 C set in 1981.

    That’s nearly 10 degrees Fahrenheit above the old record

    New York Will Approach Daily High Temperature Record Tomorrow
    April 05, 2010, 10:22 AM EDT

    By Brian K. Sullivan
    April 5 (Bloomberg) — New York City may flirt with record warmth tomorrow as temperatures remain about 20 degrees above normal until late this week, the National Weather Service said.

    How about South Carolina?

    Tuesday’s high temperature could set record in Anderson

    Nikie Mayo Independent Mail
    Posted April 5, 2010 at 6 p.m.

    ANDERSON — Temperatures in Anderson County on Tuesday could break records set more than 50 years ago, as the Upstate feels the effects of an unusual warm-weather pattern that is expected to last through Wednesday.

    Well that’s April. What about March?

    Canada basks in record high temperatures
    Last Updated: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 | 9:10 PM ET
    CBC News

    Many Canadians enjoyed the warmest St. Patrick’s Day ever Wednesday, with many places in the country logging record high temperatures with spring still officially a few days away.

    Even Florida

    Editorial: Record heat puts a spring in everyone’s step

    By Jackson Citizen Patriot staff
    April 05, 2010, 1:14PM

    The calendar says spring started more than two weeks ago, but it truly arrived on Thursday. Record or near-record temperatures at the end of the week put all memories of winter in the rear-view mirror.

  13. “When can we expect retractions from The Guardian, BBC and Real Climate?”

    You’re kidding of course, right?

    I will think that the word ‘retraction’ is unknown in their lexicon …

  14. ““Climate change is not something that is happening a million miles away – it is going on in our own back gardens,” said nature presenter Bill Oddie.”

    I hate to inform Bill Oddie but there’s really nothing of anything a million miles away other than the empty cold vacuum of space with an occasional near Earth asteroid and a solar observing satellite passing by. It’s cold empty space weather there for sure (except if you’re absorbing sun radiation in which case it can get plenty hot).

    Also it’s not climate that happens in our back gardens, it’s WEATHER that happens there! Climate happens in abstract mathematical statistics collected over 10 to 30 years or more! Well, except for that other definition of climate, as in which climate do you live in? Oh, in Vancouver we live in a wet coast rain forest type of climate in the Fraser river delta so there are a couple types of climate zones in the area, mountains too. Other than that, climate is an abstraction and it’s WEATHER that unfolds second to second and minute to minute.

  15. You should maybe look at Germany, France and the Nordic nations also.

    Maybe also a look at drought doomsday stories for North Africa and Southern Europe – this winter appears to be warmer and wetter there, which is good for filling up water tables etc.

    Reasons? Jet stream alterations means atlantic front systems follow a different path to recent years. Note I don’t use the word ‘normal’. There isn’t a ‘normal’, there’s a number of modes with a myriad of minor oscillations from them.

    Certainly the basis for a paper to discuss this sometime??

  16. As far as I can tell, the seasons have warmed unevenly in the UK. Winter has warmed very little, if at all. Summer shows some warming but not much. Spring has warmed, with March being prominent. Autumn has warmed most of all with October standing out as by far the warmest month.

    Yes, I know, warming is no proof of cause of warming.

    Does anyone from either side of the AGW divide (sceptic or believer) have a reason why warming has been so selective?

  17. I put this again:

    Spring coming in FInland, described using river Tornionjoki ice melting day from the end of year (red) and sunspot activity (blue) after Maunder minimum:

    This is quite perfect match. Now it is intresting to see what happens now when sunspots are down. This spring’s ice meltings seem to happen much later than last few years, if weather forecasts for coming 2 weeks hold. Ice is also quite thick because of cold winter.

  18. “…conservationists say Experts believe release of pent-up energy after such a long, hard winter could produce the most spectacular spring in years…

    So, the Experts believe that Spring is, quite literally, a spring.

    Okay, got it.

  19. “… experts believe release of pent-up energy …”

    Pent up energy? Eh? Where is it pent up? What kind of energy? Heat energy? Cold energy? Electricity? Where is it stored? What are they talking about?

    The sun goes around the other side of the sun and the angle of the earth’s tilt, ~23 degrees, let’s the sun heat the northern instead of the southern hemisphere. How is that “pent” up like a battery?

    In the oceans? that’s both cold and warmer, isn’t it?

    In the ice? that’s all cold and cold sucks heat to melt, lots of heat.

    What the heck are they talking about? Can’t they ever be specific with their slosh stories?

  20. Oops, too late… no editing capability.

    The EARTH goes around the other side of the sun and the angle of the earth’s tilt, ~23 degrees, let’s the sun heat the northern instead of the southern hemisphere. How is that “pent” up like a battery?

  21. The Earth is on a slow rotisserie as it orbits the sun Sol alternating between heating the northern and southern hemispheres (summer) while heating the other hemisphere not so much (winter).

    Do these journalists and alleged scientists forget this basic physics fact? It’s stunning.

    Unless the Earth moves closer to the sun, or alters it’s axis angle to 0 degrees, or the atmosphere becomes as thick as Venus, or we nuke everywhere (or something like that), the Arctic will always be below zero celsius in the winter thus there will always be sea ice coverage. The planet would need to warm up like what 30c to 50c or more for there to be no ice at all. If that were to happen we’d really be in Al Gore’s death scenario. Not likely from CO2 though.

    Correct me if I’m wrong.

    It amazes me how little people even attempt to think.

    Now maybe I get stuff wrong but at least I’m willing and able to admit it when I do and learn from the correction and apply it to thinking again.

    The Earth is tilted. I’d love to know more about how this fact impacts weather and climate. If Anthony or someone else informed with the depth of knowledge would write an excellent article on that and how said fact impacts “weather” and “long term (ahem) climate” soothsaying, ahem predictions, please do so. I would be grateful and maybe we’d all learn something too.

    Heck, do the climate models even take it into account? If so how? How accurate is it modeled? Really?

    “Earth’s axial tilt is 23.44°”
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axial_tilt

  22. During the 1920-30s in the British Isles there was a pronounced warming period (comparable with that claimed in the late 20th C) which naturalists then termed ‘climatic amelioration’. This was part of a North Atlantic warming phase that affected Grenland, Iceland and the Svalbard area – as I found on links to Nordic sites posted on WUWT last year. One (seemingly forgotten) consequence was that during this period Iceland became colonised by several species of waterfowl spreading north from Europe.

    Unfortunately, there were few British naturalists in those days to record the effects of this warming phase on wildlife; and spring phenology in general was poorly documented and is now difficult to locate. Certainly, any data are not readily accessible nowadays for comparison with recent trends. ‘Climate science’ was virtually unheard of and there were no eco-warriors concerned about harmful effects on the environment. One can only wonder what Jones et al. would have made of it all had they been active in those decades.
    Like the MWP, the 1920-30s warm phase has been erased by the entire AGW lobby. Those decades need to be re-examined in depth, prefereably on both sides of the Atlantic, to assess whether recent spring advances in timing of plant growth and other events are really so unusual. I suspect strongly that they are not; it has all happened before.

  23. “… experts believe release of pent-up energy …”

    This means they are not experts. There is no such thing as “pent-up energy”.

    How stupid do they think we are?

    As for the BBC, they don’t call it the “British Brainwashing Corporation” for nothing. The BBC’s malign and corrupting influence pervades all the British media covering this subject. This situation will continue until such time as all the BBC’s staffers’ pension funds have divested themselves of all their investments in carbon trading companies.

  24. >>pwl (01:52:43) :
    >>“… experts believe release of pent-up energy …”

    >>Pent up energy? Eh? Where is it pent up? What kind of energy?
    >>Heat energy? Cold energy? Electricity? Where is it stored?
    >>What are they talking about?

    Carbon-based chemical energy in plants, I presume. Normally, spring blossoms over a couple of months, this season it is all going to happen together in a couple of weeks.

    .

  25. Tom W (1:11:40) I beg to differ…Weather On Line 25C…Weatherunderground
    24C …We have three numbers already 2 days after…Halifax Int AP that is…
    Different thermometers?? The 1930’s were not just hot, also 10 of the US state
    cold records still stand, I think…versus heat records: 25! And where do all
    UHIs go…This energy just doesn’t disappear ??? Or???

  26. A few more winters like those we’ve just experienced and they can resurrect and update this piece:

    Newsweek, April 28, 1975:

    In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant over-all loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually.

    Meanwhile, from AP, comes this latest scare of the day (see http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100405/ap_on_sc/us_northeast_flooding_climate )

    BOSTON – The Northeast is seeing more frequent “extreme precipitation events” in line with global warming predictions, a study shows, including storms like the recent fierce rains whose floodwaters swallowed neighborhoods and businesses across New England.

    To balance out all this hype, here’s what we’ve seen this winter in Buffalo — a short snow season that saw measurable snowfall only from 1 Dec 2009 to 28 February 2010, a rare event indeed. Guess we sent all our snow to D.C., Baltimore, & Philly, since we received nearly two feet less snow than normal.

  27. “Pent up energy? Eh? Where is it pent up? What kind of energy? Heat energy? Cold energy? Electricity? Where is it stored? What are they talking about?”

    That will be Gaia energy.

    I have a tai chi video which talks of how you “feel” lighter and “feel” energized; both of which are true. But then it throws in energy-mass equivalence!

  28. Staffan Lindström (02:55:43) PS. I just checked Environment Canada : Halifax
    March EXTREME MAXIMUM : 19980331 +25,6C… April DITO: 20040430: +26,3C
    Yes, Tom W … THANKS for the cherry jam…DS.

  29. Climate change is coming. At least, political climate change.
    Sooner the better too. Perhaps a new government lead by a different party will get off the AGW bandwagon and take a realistic look at the science.

  30. Early spring in Europe matches recent climate warming August 25, 2006 Conclusive proof that spring is arriving earlier across Europe than it did 30 years ago is published today in the journal Global Change Biology.

    What kind of papers would you expect to find in a journal called Global Change Biology? Lets look at its webpage: http://www.wiley.com/bw/journal.asp?ref=1354-1013

    Global Change Biology exists to promote understanding of the interface between all aspects of current environmental change and biological systems, including rising tropospheric O3 and CO2 concentrations, climate change, loss of biodiversity, and eutrophication.

    Early View now available
    Global Change Biology publishes Early View articles – fully peer-reviewed and proof-checked articles are published online ahead of final issue compilation. To view the latest articles in Early View please click here.

    Wow…peer reviewed. With that name I wonder if they accept papers showing ecosystems not being affected by anthropogenic global warming, or being affected positively.

    Waiting for a Climate Change or a Global Warming Journal, but I don’t want to search it, I am afraid of founding it.

    Anyway, the bluebell should be in Al Gore’s coat of arms, damned if the spring comes earlier, damned if it comes late. Either way is man’s fault, you can’t be wrong. Better than Nostradamus.

  31. Ralph: Interesting graph. Do you have data for the last 10 years?

    Unfortunately no. Here’s the data:

    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1278929/tj_jaat.XLS

    C = melting day from the end of year

    And here

    http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/trends-in-the-ice-breaking-date-in-the-tornio-river-finland

    is amazingly stupid conclusions that changes are due greenhouse gases. Simple spline smoothing shows, that changes are mostly driven by solar activity. This would be worth more detailed analysis for those familiar with suitable methods.

  32. Here’s the headline:

    “Global Warming causes the coldest winter for more than 30 years”

  33. There is a weather saying in Britain “Cast ne’er a clout ’til May is out” that is commonly taken to mean “Don’t shed any Winter clothing until the end of May”, but I recently heard another, perhaps wiser, meaning.

    Hawthorn is also called the May Tree (as in “Queen of the May) so an entreaty that you cannot be sure of warm weather until the May tree is blossoming makes more sense. Love that weather lore.

  34. ““Climate change is not something that is happening a million miles away – it is going on in our own back gardens,” said nature presenter Bill Oddie.”
    ——————-
    Reply:
    Yeah, well, I’m now sitting in 4 inches of “Early Spring” and more is coming down as I write this. I expect the storm will deposit another 3 to 5 inches before it heads east, which it is doing at a very slow pace.

    Happy SPRING!

    Now, where did I put that snow shovel?

  35. Spring – the time of warming days from winter and lengthening day length towards the summer solstice. Biological processes in nearly all organisms (at least those that live on the surface of this earth) are driven by photoperiodism – the precise measure of the number of hours of light versus that of darkness. Nearly all species of plants and animals use photoperiodism to maximise their reproductive output (and hence genetic capital) in the evolutionary process. To get ahead of the game, use photoperiodism as the clue for ‘good times ahead’ to drive the reproductive effort to produce offspring just when the maximum level of a food source will be available to the parent to feed the offspring. Do this by using the clue of lengthening day length to time your reproductive effort to maximise the survival of your offspring for future generations. But the genetics of photoperiodism is not necessarily temperature compensated, so a lengthening photoperiod combined with an ‘unusual’ increase in temperature can drive the reproductive effort to occur earlier than normal based on lengthening day length alone. However, this can increase your reproductive output for that (and other) seasons – meaning that you are potentially the big evolutionary winner and will inherit the earth. Such is Darwinism. It is beneficial that you breed earlier as most animals/plants will not breed that much longer as they eventually enter a photorefractory state and stop breeding – and this is not temperature compensated so the reproductive effort is terminated by a critical day length (for example late spring or summer) to allow the adult to recoup its energy requirements to survive the next bout of winter (or energy limitation) to allow it to breed in the next season (basically it is all about life long reproductive output). OK, the point is, that an earlier warmer spring means that the majority of spring breeders are benefited in evolutionary terms, not penalised. In short, bring it on for earlier warmer springs – it is the long harsh winters and late springs that will do you and your offspring in, but in the meantime you have potentially left sufficient more offspring behind to be ahead of your competitors. During periods of early springs (whatever the cause) results in major long term evolutionary impacts that take advantage – i.e. the early bird catches the worm. OK, this is pretty way-of-the-mark for the typical meteorological thread of this group but life is all about evolution and (at least in temperate climes) early springs mean good things for your reproductive output (talking non-homids here) and ones long term ‘genetic’ survival.

  36. More signs of global warming! :o(

    BBC – 16 March 2010
    “Harsh winter delays spring blooms”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8570239.stm

    *****************

    BBC – 16 March 2010
    “The Woodland Trust say they have uncovered striking evidence that spring flowering is weeks behind.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8569000/8569757.stm

    *****************

    BBC – 19 March 2010
    “The harsh winter may have had a devastating impact on Britain’s wildlife, it has been warned.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8575537.stm

    *****************

    BBC – 23 March 2010
    “It’s been the longest and coldest winter in years…

    Daffodils, traditionally given at Mother’s Day, have been in short supply, their blooms delayed by the coldest winter in 30 years. ”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8582532.stm

    *****************

    Daily Mail – 31st March 2010
    “Colder than Moscow: Thousands of homes without power and drivers stranded as Britain is battered by blizzards and gale-force winds”
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1262265/Homes-power-drivers-stranded-UK-hit-snow-wind.html

    *****************

    The Guardian – 5 April 2010
    “Spring is very late this year and the daffs are only just in bloom. ”

    “The Woodland Trust’s ongoing survey, Nature’s Calendar, confirms that this is one of the most unusual springs in recent years. Observations by their 30,000 participants suggest that some natural phenomena have been delayed by as much as four weeks compared with recent years. ”
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/05/spring-natures-winners-and-losers

  37. Bill Oddie used to be funny. Now he’s just the “poster boy” for Top Gear speeding in Japan.

  38. @ Tom W (01:11:40)

    If we “cherry-pick” enough regions of the earth then we eventually approach a global data set, right? Okay, my contribution to the cherry basket are Russia and Siberia:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1260132/Russian-weatherman-strikes-blow-climate-change-lobby-announcing-winter-Siberia-coldest-record.html

    “‘The winter of 2009-10 was one of the most severe in European part of Russia for more than 30 years, and in Siberia it was perhaps the record breaking coldest ever,’ said Dr Alexander Frolov, head of state meteorological service Rosgidromet.”

    “Mr Frolov also offered bad news for Russians hoping for a speedy respite from the long winter.

    ‘We can officially say that beginning of the spring in Russia is postponed for another seven to 10 days,’ he warned.”

    “Climate change adherents say the planet is warming due to man-made factors but Russian expert Professor Arkady Tishkov said yesterday that Siberia and the world are in fact getting colder.

    ‘From a scientific point of view, talk about increasing average temperatures on earth of several degrees are absurd,’ he said.

    ‘Of course we can’t say that global warming is a myth and falsification. In many regions of planet the temperature is higher than expected because of human impact.

    ‘But the climate system of the planet is changing according to different cycles – from several years to thousand of years.

    ‘From the scientific point of view, in terms of large scale climate cycles, we are in a period of cooling.”

  39. Jimbo (04:29:27) : More signs of global warming!

    Apparently Jimbo thinks

    the UK = the globe.

    I expect those who know it occupies less than 1/10th of 1 % of the surface of the Earth may find that difficult to swallow.

  40. The Met Office have just announced that March was half a degree C warmer than ‘normal’. In fact, March was half a degree cooler than an average of the past 10 years – which is more ‘normal’ than a baseline. February was cooler, January was cooler, 2009 was cooler, and 2008 was cooler.

  41. Staffan Lindström (02:55:43) PS. I just checked Environment Canada : Halifax
    March EXTREME MAXIMUM : 19980331 +25,6C… April DITO: 20040430: +26,3C
    Yes, Tom W … THANKS for the cherry jam…DS.

    The Halifax record I cited (from the CBC) was for a particular day, 23C on April 4, 2010. The record you cite was the extreme for the entire month which occurred on April 30, 1980. It is no surprise that the former is less than the latter. What is surprising perhaps is that the April 4, 2010 temperature came within a couple of degrees of breaking the record for the entire month….even though it is early in the month.

  42. With the record cold AO affecting the record cold winter weather in Europe and Asia, I went back to see how the negative AO affected the weather for the following spring and summer.

    AO 1950-2009 [60 years]

    Number of winters DEC, JAN, FEB AO all negative , 18 or 30%
    Of the 18 all negative AO winter, 11 or 61% went negative to March as well[Indication of a cool spring?]
    Of the 18 all negative AO winter, 13 or 72 % had negative months into the spring and summer [Indication of cool year?]

    Regionally, UK and Europe could have a cool spring, summer and the year if historical patterns repeat. I notice that a negative AO although much less negative is still continuing into April as in the past.

  43. I like this website for its content, but some of the articles are written in a very poor way. Why not raise the standatd a bit?

    E.g. each article should have an abstract/summary which can be read quickly to get the main point of what the article is saying. Many of them just seem to ramble on and some require two reads before we can see what the point really is.

    Another great element would be to have some proof reading and editing (I mean grammer and suggestions to the writer as to bits that appear to ramble/need rearrangement because to point gets lost) etc…

    I am sure there are many here who would be willing to commit some time to that process.

  44. Vukcevic[02:58:06]

    Your graph well illustrates how spring tempertaures dropped during past 20-30 year cool climate cycles[ see 1900-1920’s and again 1960-1980’s]. Sign of things to come ?

  45. CO2 News:

    New King Coal: Spring comes early out there*.
    …-

    “Australian Port Congestion Gives Clues To A Staggering Surge In Demand From Japan, Korea, And China

    Despite recent infrastructure expansions, Australian ports have been clobbered by an enormous rebound in demand for coal from Korea, Japan, and most notably… China.”
    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2487503/posts

    (*H/T Yogi B.)

  46. Both global warming and global cooling will be a local and regional thing (we are not a smooth round ball folks). Evidence will not be global for either case. It is entirely appropriate to use climate zone and micro-climate zone data to follow climate change. The trick is in what you attribute it to. Natural causes should be the gold standard by which any other forcing is compared to.

  47. Tom W (00:45:13) :

    Easter snow, 2008
    Sleet, snow and storms yesterday made it one of the most miserable Easter weekends in years – with more bad weather to come.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/23/weather

    October snow 2008
    Parts of south-east England had more than an inch of snow last night while London experienced its first October snowfall in more than 70 years as winter conditions arrived early.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/oct/29/weather-london

    2008-2009 Winter
    Coldest winter in UK for 13 years
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7921230.stm

    2009-2010 winter
    Britain facing one of the coldest winters in 100 years
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6921281/Britain-facing-one-of-the-coldest-winters-in-100-years-experts-predict.html

  48. That is a beautiful picture of snow covered fields at the top of the post. Such a shame that will be a thing of the past so very soon…

  49. I vote for a late spring. I suffer from oak pollen alligeries and the longer the winter the longer I’m allegery free. Then there is rageweed season if the summer is longer the ragweed season is longer. I’m ready for cooler temps.

  50. Posted by Tom W;
    By Brian K. Sullivan
    April 5 (Bloomberg) — New York City may flirt with record warmth tomorrow as temperatures remain about 20 degrees above normal until late this week, the National Weather Service said.

    The record still stands and it was from the 20’s. The weather is all over the map as per usual. That mitigates against AGW claims.

  51. Along the Front Range, Spring seems to be running at least four weeks late – as we are just starting to see the first Crocus buds. Some years we get them in February.

  52. Tom W (05:06:12) :

    Jimbo (04:29:27) : More signs of global warming!

    Apparently Jimbo thinks

    the UK = the globe.

    I expect those who know it occupies less than 1/10th of 1 % of the surface of the Earth may find that difficult to swallow.
    ————————-
    Reply:
    Oh really? And how about Russia and Siberia in the post just prior to yours? Do they also constitute a mere fraction of the earth’s surface?

    Your denial is beyond that famous river in Africa.

  53. For Tom W:

    ““Last April, I wrote an article titled Global Warming and “The Early Spring” which highlighted one of the favorite AGW myths, that CO2 is making winter warmer and spring arrive earlier.”

    The piece that tried to make inferences about Global Warming from 7 days of May 2009 data from ’selected’ areas representing less than 5% of the Earth’s surface? ”

    Tom, if the article was written last April (which would have been April of 2009) how is it possible that the article would have used data from 7 days of MAY 2009? That would have been an interesting trick indeed!

  54. It’s about this time of the year this Texan starts paying attention to the Alaskan
    http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com
    where they had a “very mild winter, with temperates only reaching -40 degrees for 2 days and average temperatures for the rest of the winter ranging between 45 degrees and -35 degrees.”

    Ticket sales for their contest ended April 5th, a contest to predict when exactly the ice will break at a particular railroad bridge. The contest began in 1917.
    (They must be redoing the website, as parts of it seem to give me a 404 error)

  55. RockyRoad : “Oh really? And how about Russia and Siberia in the post just prior to yours? Do they also constitute a mere fraction of the earth’s surface?”

    Oh really? And how about the ENTIRE Southern Hemisphere which in 2009 was the hottest since the late 1800’s. I could play this silly game all day but since it’s a complete waste of time. I won’t.

  56. The bipolar bears can’t decide if they like hot or cold.

    I am tired of this record setting long cold and wet winter.

  57. PeterB in Indainapolis (06:33:10): Tom, if the article was written last April (which would have been April of 2009) how is it possible that the article would have used data from 7 days of MAY 2009? That would have been an interesting trick indeed!

    Actually the article was written on April 5, 2009 and the data was was from April 6 – April 12, 2009. How you say? I hadn’t noticed but Steve used the FORECASTS not the actual data. A very weird thing to do indeed.

  58. The UK is only a tiny portion of the Northern Hemisphere but as I look out of my study window there are no leaves on the London planes and silver birches. The buds look as if they might open next week if the warmer weather that started today continues. In Richmond Park none of the 1,000 or so oaks and other majestic trees are yet in leaf no matter that on some reckonings we are already nearly six weeks into spring.

    Less than a week ago parts of Cumberland suffered a snowstorm of more than 18 inches and the “unseasonal” snow in Southern Scotland resulted in at least one death.

    However we have been reassured that this year we really will have a “barbecue summer”. Perhaps we will and perhaps we won’t because the weather still does not understand that it must behave as climate models say it should.

  59. Steve Goddard (06:30:19) : No warming seen in March temperatures in the Northern US for at least 30 years.

    Which suggests that it no longer true if you consider the entire US, otherwise you can be sure Steve would be hyping it.

  60. England was cold this winter, all right, but posting data from a single island is meaningless.

    Timing of the onset of spring only means something on a global scale. If this task hasn’t been taken on, I’ll look around a bit myself. All of the studies that I have seen demonstrate substantially earlier spring arrival in the last 20 years, especially in the Arctic.

    I look forward to your posting the global data after I find it.

  61. Justa Joe (06:22:24) :”The record still stands and it was from the 20’s. The weather is all over the map as per usual. That mitigates against AGW claims.”

    Interesting given that you posted that before the afternoon of the day it was suppose to ‘flirt with the record’, i.e. today.

  62. Tom W (07:05:45) :

    All of your hot air is not going to speed up the arrival of Spring.

  63. OT, RockyRoad you wrote on another thread that Equatorial temps rise by 5 degrees Celsius during Ice Age conditions. Would it be possible to provide links or any more information about that?

    Back on topic, the pessimistic navel-gazing of modern climate-watchers is a wonder to behold. The Catlin crew learned a thing or two about “early spring” last year.

  64. Steve Goddard (06:15:55) :
    Cherry-pick, cherry pick, cherry-pick

    Sorry Steve I have a bad back and am losing interest in cherry picking.

  65. To give you an idea of the standards held dear by the UK’s media, the Daily Telegraph in an article on this very subject earlier this year, suggested that lambs were being born earlier in the spring due to AGW.

    The farmers amongst you may be able to spot the ‘deliberate’ mistake in that one.

  66. The worst part of the entire early spring or any other observation is that it provides nothing in the way of a link to CO2 emissions.

    Yet the global directive from warmers is that we must believe there is a link.

    There only evidence is their theoretical climate modeling which they inflate with rhetoric about there not being any other explanation.

  67. Borenstein, Seth, AP reporter: “Global Warming Hastens Arrival of Early Springtime”, March 19 2008. Borenstein quotes several scientists.

    Root, Terry: “Human Modified Signatures Induce Species Changes: Joint Attribution”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 2008. Early spring, including data about blooming, bird migrations, etc.

    I also recommend that WUWT readers go outside and ask the older residents of their neighborhood if spring is arriving earlier than when they were children.

    Game over. Let’s move on.

    REPLY: “Game over. Let’s move on.” Mike, despite your self image of moral superiority, you don’t run this blog, thus we’ll continue this discussion. – Anthony

  68. “pwl (01:39:34) :

    ““Climate change is not something that is happening a million miles away – it is going on in our own back gardens,” said nature presenter Bill Oddie.”

    I hate to inform Bill Oddie but there’s really nothing of anything a million miles away other than the empty cold vacuum of space ”

    That empty cold vacuum had also established itself in Bill Oddie’s head – even the BBC was forced to drop him for his excruciatingly vacuous, emetic, anthropomorphic TV utterances last year. Even his fellow presenters were embarrassed – no mean feat considering their bunny hugging green credentials and demonstrable loss of a grip on reality.
    Unfortunately a high proportion of my countrymen are said to have enjoyed the programme and even more unfortunately will be allowed to vote on May 6th……..
    Mean while, here on the Scottish Solway we have our heating on, despite my wife’s Aberdeenshire origins!

  69. Xi Chin (05:34:57) :

    “I like this website for its content, but some of the articles are written in a very poor way. Why not raise the standatd a bit? ” …”I mean grammer (sic) and suggestions”

    Funny. Hmmm – Would that include spelling as well ?

    ; )

  70. @ Tom W (06:47:44) :
    Oh really? And how about the ENTIRE Southern Hemisphere which in 2009 was the hottest since the late 1800’s. I could play this silly game all day but since it’s a complete waste of time. I won’t.”

    The Southern Hemisphere is mostly water, not land. And we’ve been in an El Nino since July–the oceans are giving off heat.

  71. We did get an early Spring here in Western Washington. The opposite of last year, when locals were lamenting the late Tulip blooms due to extended cold.

    There is no global anything going on. Warm and cool spots just get pushed around the planet by winds and oceans, like they always have. Sometimes those warm and cool spots are centered over areas where there are lots of thermometers and people go nuts.

    It’s just so incredibly silly.

  72. Tom W (07:05:45) :

    The winter of 2008-2009 was extremely cold in the UK. I wrote several articles about that last year. Perhaps you should read them, rather than drawing conclusions from one sentence you misquoted out of context?

  73. Tom W (06:47:44) :
    Oh really? And how about the ENTIRE Southern Hemisphere which in 2009 was the hottest since the late 1800’s.

    Oh, really? And your basis for claiming we knew the temperature over the ENTIRE Southern Hemisphere back before there were weather satellites is…?

    I could play this silly game all day but since it’s a complete waste of time. I won’t.

    Promises, promises.

  74. Tom W (07:05:45) :
    I hadn’t noticed but Steve used the FORECASTS not the actual data. A very weird thing to do indeed.

    AGW’s basic premise — that we’re heading for runaway heating — is *based* on forecasts.

  75. Let’s not be surprised at the BBC, everyone. It’s sad, but true – the BBC’s newsgathering and current affairs departments have lost credibility with millions of people. The tradition of journalistic enquiry has long vanished from its national output, except where they can be seen to be supporting the consumer or unmasking some low-life. What this once proud organisation will not do is court controversy, If we had waited for the BBC to blow the whistle on the UK MPs instead of the Daily Telegraph newspaper, we would still be waiting.

    Ever since the Andrew Gilligan affair they have toed the establishment line and dare not say boo to any Government goose. Enquiry into AGW issues are, in particular, a big ‘No-no’. Even the Today programme, once vaunted current affairs showpiece of the Beeb, nods its head like an obedient lapdog at any AGW proponent and hardly ever allows anyone from ‘the other side’ to have their say. Most disappointingly, no one is tackling the science. They have so-called environmental correspondents who give earnest pieces to camera which just parrot the establishment line.

    Don’t expect to be invited by the BBC to take part in any prime time discussion on AGW, Anthony – they would run a mile!

  76. Sorry Steve you wouldn’t make a good global warming alarmist, you just don’t get that sun and snow are proof of global warming, just like a man made camp fire is proof the whole forest is about to burn down, well thats what the forest scientist/warden told me as he also reminded me that i had to pay him all my money to look after said forest (smelling of firer starter fluid).

  77. Anyone who goes camping on May long weekend will tell you it gets colder every year. I’m still waiting for a nice weekend like the one i had 10 years ago.

  78. Tom W (05:06:12) :
    Jimbo (04:29:27) : More signs of global warming!
    Apparently Jimbo thinks
    the UK = the globe.

    Late arrival of Spring is more global than I might have presented Tom. Still, we are all going boil in our own man-made co2 juices!!!!

    Minnesota
    http://www.fatboydanfishing.com/showthread.php?p=831
    Washington
    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011526436_apwaspringweather.html
    Ukraine
    http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:LKI.L&display=discussion&id=6106831&action=detail
    Beijing
    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/culture/2010-04/06/c_13239143.htm

    *******************

    Going OT now we can take a look back to Florida.
    ““In Florida, evening and early morning temperatures dipped below freezing over the course of about 10 days during Jan. 2-13, with the coldest readings since December 1989 recorded on Jan 11. Consecutive daily record lows were recorded across the state and as far south as Miami on Jan 10-11.””
    http://southeastfarmpress.com/vegetables-tobacco/florida-vegetables-0406/

  79. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8592408.stm

    Monday, 29 March 2010
    Struggling to survive Mongolia’s freezing winter

    In Mongolia, what aid agencies are calling a slowly unfolding disaster is underway as extreme cold continues to devastate nomadic herder communities. As the BBC’s Chris Hogg reports, about 10% of the country’s livestock has perished and thousands of families have lost everything.

  80. Pamela Gray: Exactly, Pamela. Have you noticed the Local Paper and it’s fixation
    on El Nino? Warm weather-nice open winter(I know it’s all relative for NE Oregon)
    Cold snowy, late March/early April snow pack catches up to near normal-El Nino. Can’t wait for next year-Got Snow?…

  81. Bill Tuttle (08:05:05) : “AGW’s basic premise — that we’re heading for runaway heating — is *based* on forecasts.”

    7 day weather forecasts? Nope.

  82. I would have expected a more complete statistical analysis that spring is not on average starting earlier. Many of the statements you cite (not all) are based on statistical studies over long time periods which are not refuted by one data point.

  83. “Oh, really? And your basis for claiming we knew the temperature over the ENTIRE Southern Hemisphere back before there were weather satellites is…?”

    Just as it is not necessary to poll an entire country to get a fairly accurate estimate of voters intensions, it is also not necessary to know the temperature over an entire hemisphere to get a good estimate of the hemispheric temperature. This of course involves being careful…cherry pickers need not apply.

  84. Spring has been getting progressively later in the UK for the last few years. It’s also been getting more colourful.

    I have two ponds in my garden, a large one for koi and a smaller, shallower one for frogs and other pond loving creatures. This year I have more frog spawn in the small pond than I’ve ever seen. I guess frogs know how to pass a cold winter.

    The dawn chorus is the noisiest I’ve heard in several years and I’ve seen no shortage of small birds. But then, people tend to ensure that birds have food and water throughout harsh winters. I keep the air pumps running so that water is available through the winter even if the filter pumps freeze up.

    The snowdrops and crocuses were spectacular this year and the daffodils, open for more than a week now, are equally as breathtaking. My blossom trees are laden with buds and my camelias and magnolias are about to burst into flower. With the seasons sliding back “into place” after the recent decades of warming, the plants are getting a good rest over the winter and it’s noticeable. My rose bushes, so used to flowering almost the year through, are showing robust growth after the harsh winter stopped growth, None of those weedy, exhausted shoots of recent milder years.

    Of course, I must mention that the butterflies and bees in the UK were in great profusion last summer. I think the message of Mama Nature is loud and clear. Shame the alarmists, who profess to worship her, wear industrial strength earplugs…

  85. All I can say, is that at the beginning of November last year, I started splitting logs for our wood burner. This weekend, Easter, and the first weekend in April, I’m still splitting logs! Last Easter, I was relaxing with a beer in the garden!

  86. Tom W (09:35:07) :

    If you keep posting enough, perhaps you can change the fact that winter 2008-2009 was a long, cold winter in the UK.

  87. Another reminder … If it does trend warmer for several decades, and even if we gained 2 degrees… someone explain to me again why this is a bad thing?

    We just had a mild winter and warm summer here in the last year in the northwest. It was FANTASTIC!

    Ice “melt” won’t be that dramatic. Seasons will be longer, with crops more bountiful. We know now that storms won’t be much different. We would need to adapt, manage water resources carefully. Polar bears will sunbathe. Where’s the crisis again?

    I also recall Indur golanky’s report showing almost 20% greater mortality in winter than summer.

    All AGW alarmism attempts to paint some dark outcome of a warmer earth.
    To be sure, there would be winners and losers. But all alarmist references are negative, when in fact, a little warmer is better for (nearly) all living things.

  88. vjones (03:42:02) :
    There is a weather saying in Britain “Cast ne’er a clout ’til May is out” that is commonly taken to mean “Don’t shed any Winter clothing until the end of May”, but I recently heard another, perhaps wiser, meaning.

    Hawthorn is also called the May Tree (as in “Queen of the May) so an entreaty that you cannot be sure of warm weather until the May tree is blossoming makes more sense. Love that weather lore.

    Weather lore is rather interesting. Here’s another one:
    ‘Ash before oak – in for a soak; oak before ash – in for a splash’.
    This refers to the appearance of the trees’ flowers, and is used as forecast regarding the coming summer weather.

    Last spring, it was ash before oak, and July was the wettest in Wales for 40 years. (I wish I’d remembered that before falling for the MetOffice’s ‘Barbeque Summer’ and getting a new summer dress …).

    In the last few days, the first flowers have opened on the ash trees, while the oaks still look as if its the depth of winter. (Better get some new waterproofs, methinks …)

    Are there similar weather lore sayings for the USA, and what are they?

  89. Steve Goddard (07:56:01) :
    Tom W (07:05:45) :

    The winter of 2008-2009 was extremely cold in the UK. I wrote several articles about that last year.

    I haven’t denied that.

    Perhaps you should read them

    If the issue were the local UK climate I would. It’s about global warming however and since you seem intent on cherry-picking I won’t.

    rather than drawing conclusions from one sentence you misquoted out of context?

    My 07:05:45 post didn’t quote you, so I have no idea what you are on about.

  90. Spring just won’t come here in N. Calif. At least not the kind that leaves all the snow and wind and rain behind.

  91. Kate (02:33:37) : “’… experts believe release of pent-up energy …’ This means they are not experts. There is no such thing as ‘pent-up energy’. How stupid do they think we are?”

    Stupid enough to believe one of the worst winters in recent history was nothing but ‘a cold snap.’

  92. rbateman (10:23:27) :”Spring just won’t come here in N. Calif. At least not the kind that leaves all the snow and wind and rain behind.”

    Apparently S Cal is stealing it from you.

    ANAHEIM, Calif., March 16 (UPI) — A warm spell in Southern California has brought unseasonable Santa Ana winds along with warnings to motorists on one Orange County highway, officials said.

    Gusts up to 41 mph in local canyons affected drivers on the 241 Toll Road in Anaheim Tuesday, The Orange County Register reported.

    Santa Ana winds caused by high pressure over the western United States are most common between October and January, but can occur later in the winter, the newspaper said.

    The combination of high pressure and strong, dry winds pushed temperatures to higher-than-normal mid-to-upper 80s in Orange County Tuesday and the warm spell is expected to last until Friday, forecasters said.

  93. Tom W (10:23:12):

    “It’s about global warming…”

    Wrong. Global warming/cooling is normal and natural.

    But “catastrophic anthropogenic runaway global warming” is a fabricated scare story, invented by climate alarmists to divert the public’s tax money into their pockets, and it has been very successful doing that.

    But the whole scam is bogus. Here’s your “catastrophic global warming”: click

    Also, didn’t you just make the point that climate is local? Thanx for the local Anaheim report.

  94. The hoaxers have got to do something about the Internet and it’s keeping things around for so long. It makes for so many inconvenient truths that even Al Gore is now crying. In the old days when there was just three network channels and the local newspaper, propaganda was so much easier to distribute.

    Resist all net neutrality government power grabs, it leads to government control and censorship of the Internet. And why would anyone want to censor free speech?

  95. Smokey (10:33:26) : “Wrong. Global warming/cooling is normal and natural.”

    To tell you the truth I’m not much interested in unsubstantiated declarative sentences.

  96. Tom W (10:01:22) :
    Just as it is not necessary to poll an entire country to get a fairly accurate estimate of voters intensions, it is also not necessary to know the temperature over an entire hemisphere to get a good estimate of the hemispheric temperature.

    “Dewey Defeats Truman” comes to mind. And you didn’t say the temperature in the Southern Hemisphere in 2009 was higher than that which was *estimated* since the 1880s, you said it higher than the temperature for the entire SH — and, considering there was only random sampling of both the air and water temps in random locations which *didn’t* include Antarctica, we return to my original question: how do you determine the *actual* temperature of an entire hemisphere when you don’t have the assets to measure it?

  97. Tom W (10:44:46) :

    Smokey (10:33:26) : “Wrong. Global warming/cooling is normal and natural.”

    To tell you the truth I’m not much interested in unsubstantiated declarative sentences.

    Climatologist Roy Spencer: No one has falsified the theory that the observed temperature changes are a consequence of natural variability.

    Substantiated.

    Unless, of course, you are a climatologist?

    Didn’t think so.

  98. Tom W (10:44:46) :
    Smokey (10:33:26) : “Wrong. Global warming/cooling is normal and natural.”
    To tell you the truth I’m not much interested in unsubstantiated declarative sentences.

    Except when you make them?

  99. I had a lovely early spring here. Positive proof of global warming. Of course last year when we stayed below freezing throughout all of April with the lakes frozen over well into May that was just weather.

    Do I have that right?

    I am so glad someone else is having a cold year this year. We had two years of absolutely brutal springs I needed a nice one

    Do I have that right?

  100. Tom W (10:48:53) :
    Climate science is settled – the world is warming
    Published Tuesday April 6th, 2010
    http://telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com/opinion/article/1007536
    Time to pack it in lads…

    I can only presume you’re being facetious. From the article:

    “Somewhere in a 3,000 page UN global warming report, two minor details may have been overstated. Himalayan glaciers may not be melting at quite the pace the IPCC report had at first had reckoned. In fact, it may take two or three generations for those glaciers to disappear – not just one. Holland is still at risk of flooding, but the inundation may fall short a few centimetres than was first estimated. Imminent global catastrophe due to man-made greenhouse gas emissions is no less real.

    When plankton, krill, crustaceans and mollusks vanish as their calcium carbonate shells dissipate, so too will the food web that sustains marine ecosystems globally. Our voracious consumption of fossil fuels will result inevitably in catastrophe, with or without global warming.”

    He wrote an *opinion* piece. And, considering he doesn’t even know that plankton and krill don’t use calcium carbonate in their shells, his opinion on the subject is worth exactly squat.

  101. Smokey (11:01:45) :
    Bill Tuttle (10:57:17),
    See post @10:56:00.
    You lose.

    You got to play while I got stuck in moderation! Not fair!

    I need to reclaim the language of democracy and

    Oh. Wrong thread. Never mind.

  102. Bill Tuttle,

    My apologies. I misunderstood that as an attack. I’ve asked my friendly mod to delete my post.

  103. Bill Tuttle (10:46:27) : “Dewey Defeats Truman” comes to mind. ”

    Sure there is always a chance that error is large. The odds however favour small error. Without additional evidence it would be foolish to assume otherwise

    “considering there was only random sampling of both the air and water temps in random locations which *didn’t* include Antarctica,”

    Read this and get back to me

    hadobs.metoffice.com/crutem3/HadCRUT3_accepted.pdf

  104. no early spring here.

    2ft of new snow, and looks like the lakes will still be frozen over for opening day of fishing season.

    usually before opening day the FD does a first aid refresher, this year we are doing an ICE RESCUE refresher

    ;)

  105. Tom W (10:01:22) :

    “Just as it is not necessary to poll an entire country to get a fairly accurate estimate of voters intensions, it is also not necessary to know the temperature over an entire hemisphere to get a good estimate of the hemispheric temperature. This of course involves being careful…cherry pickers need not apply.”

    This reminds me of Mann / Bristlecones and Briffa Yamal. Sample and smear accross the board :0) If you think linking to one article means you have ‘won’ the debate then you must be pretty new to WUWT.

  106. Jimbo (04:29:27) brought us this link:

    BBC – 16 March 2010
    “The Woodland Trust say they have uncovered striking evidence that spring flowering is weeks behind.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid

    Tooooo funny!!! What “striking evidence” did they ‘uncover??? Did they shovel off the snow to uncover it?

    BBC = Monty Python’s Ministry of Truth.

  107. Steve Goddard (11:37:02) : Tom W (10:48:53) :

    230 glaciers in the Himalayas are growing. The IPCC says they will all be gone by 2035.

    That was Working Group II. Working Group I, the scientific committee, said no such thing.

    Here is a math problem for you. How long will it take for a glacier that is growing to disappear? Those IPCC scientists are first rate, if you consider failing 3rd grade math to be acceptable.

    I guess that’s why they weren’t on the scientific committee.

  108. Jimbo (11:39:05) : If you think linking to one article means you have ‘won’ the debate then you must be pretty new to WUWT.

    I fear you are right. Scientific arguments seem to have little impact here.

  109. Tom W (10:48:53) :

    Thomas Mueller says

    Continued fossil fuel consumption will continue to raise ocean acidity levels to as much as 150 per cent the preindustrial level over the next century and a half. As a result, marine ecosystems will collapse in our lifetime because of ocean acidification.

    When plankton, krill, crustaceans and mollusks vanish as their calcium carbonate shells dissipate, so too will the food web that sustains marine ecosystems globall

    Unfortunately Mueller has little understanding of the Kolmogorov complexity of biological systems eg Kolmogorov, A. N., I.G. Petrovskii, and N.S. Piskunov

    A Study of the Equations of Diffusion Accompanied by an Increase in the Amount of Matter, and Its Application to a Biological Problem 1937

    Here there is a significant constraint embedded in the Biology this is called evolution and is well understood eg Darwin 1856.

    A good example is Hendricks and Rickaby

    Abstract. An urgent question for future climate, in light of
    increased burning of fossil fuels, is the temperature sensitivity
    of the climate system to atmospheric carbon dioxide
    (pCO2). To date, no direct proxy for past levels of pCO2 exists
    beyond the reach of the polar ice core records. We propose
    a new methodology for placing a constraint on pCO2
    over the Cenozoic based on the physiological plasticity of
    extant coccolithophores. Specifically, our premise is that the
    contrasting calcification tolerance1 of various extant species
    of coccolithophore to raised pCO2 reflects an “evolutionary
    memory” of past atmospheric composition. The different
    times of evolution of certain morphospecies allows an upper
    constraint of past pCO2 to be placed on Cenozoic timeslices.
    Further, our hypothesis has implications for the response of
    marine calcifiers to ocean acidification. Geologically “ancient”
    species, which have survived large changes in ocean
    chemistry, are likely more resilient to predicted acidification.

    In terms of underlying genetic mechanisms, currently, little
    is known about genetic controls on calcification (e.g.
    Marsh, 2003; Nguyen et al., 2005), or the detailed photosynthetic
    mechanism of coccolithophores. Coupling of calcification
    with species-specific Rubisco specificity provides
    a tangible means to preserve the CO2/O2 composition at the
    time of origin of photosynthetic phyla (Giordano et al., 2005;
    Tcherkez et al., 2006). The preservation of calcification ability
    at high pCO2 in C. pelagicus may occur through genetic
    redundancy (Wagner, 1999), or variance in genetic expression
    whilst the adaptation of E. huxleyi and C. leptoporus to
    the modern low pCO2 niche could be associated with gene
    inactivation of pathways associated with high pCO2 (Hittinger
    et al., 2004). The high proportion of duplicate genes
    within plant and algae genomes is indicative of a high rate
    of retention of duplicate genes (Lynch and Connery, 2000).
    Gene duplications contribute to the establishment of new
    gene functions, and may underlie the origin of evolutionary
    novelty. Duplicate genes can exist stably in a partially redundant
    state over a protracted evolutionary period (Moore
    and Purugganan, 2005). A half-life to silencing and loss of
    a plant gene duplicate is estimated at 23.4 million years such
    that remnant duplicate genes, which can be reactivated by
    environmental conditions to encode calcification within coccolithophores
    under “ancestral” conditions representative of
    60 Ma, appears reasonable.

  110. Leone (03:37:59) :

    I agree. Here’s a few links to show them. Sorry, don’t have the time to argue with them myself.

    Per J. Lean et al

    Data source for graph: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/solar_variability/lean2000_irradiance.txt

    Draw a linear regression with the data. The slope was actually greater with some satellite TSI instruments (TIM I think) reading 1367+ in late 1990’s and is now per SOURCE below 1361 and sometimes touching 1359 W/m2. It’s something like this, ~1367 W/m2 / ~1361 W/m2 * ~288 K – ~288 K = ~1.27 ºC. There’s your “sooner river breaking” date across the ~300 years. And point to them the up tick since ~2003 at end of cycle 23. They won’t believe you but at least you told them the some truth.

  111. Tom W (11:57:12) :

    Jimbo (11:39:05) : If you think linking to one article means you have ‘won’ the debate then you must be pretty new to WUWT.

    I fear you are right. Scientific arguments seem to have little impact here.
    ___________________________________

    Oh I don’t know some people have come in here with lots of ideas with data to back them up and have made rather strong impressions.

    Science is not about beliefs and opinions, it’s about ideas and data, concepts about correlations that have substantive mechanisms as their inner working that can be verified and when applied actually generate forecasts that DO WORK!

    Have you brought any of those with you today?

  112. Tom W (11:57:12) :

    Jimbo (11:39:05) : If you think linking to one article means you have ‘won’ the debate then you must be pretty new to WUWT.

    I fear you are right. Scientific arguments seem to have little impact here.

    We can’t help it if you refuse to look at them, and instead rely on inaccurate alarmist claptrap…

  113. CodeTech (12:21:30) : We can’t help it if you refuse to look at them, and instead rely on inaccurate alarmist claptrap…

    Speaking of claptrap it is typical of climate discombobulators* to make vague unsubstantiated claims about ‘alarmist claptrap’ without ever even identifying it.

    *Since won’t allow me to use the ‘d’ word even though they can freely use the ‘a’ word, this will have to do.

  114. I love the fact the birds and the bluebells are doomed if spring comes 5 days earlier, and there doomed when its late! They cant win poor things!!!

    Its like they believe the climate has never changed in the UK before and all the plants and birds are sensitive to a few tenths of a degree change – they need to get out into the real world!

  115. Oh I don’t know some people have come in here with lots of ideas with data to back them up and have made rather strong impressions.

    Really? Tell me about it. All I’ve seen is a lot of Gore bashing, unsubstantiated claims and cherry-picking.

  116. Tom W,

    In 2003, Europe had a couple of hot weeks and practically every news outlet in the world cited it as proof of global warming. It was widely described as “what we can expect during summers in the future” due to CO2 and global warming.

    Sadly, I went to the beach in Christchurch (Dorset) a day or two before the heat wave that summer, and nearly froze. I keep hoping for some global warming as promised, but it never seems to happen.

  117. So you english men are not going to have your “Estro” season this year. Kind of a “delayed love affaire” ☺

  118. ♪♪♪Oh my love searching for
    I really need you
    I really want you baby
    I need you and I want you baby
    Spring love – come back to me
    I gotta have you baby
    ♪♪♪

  119. “Have you brought any of those with you today?”

    Let me bring you this.

    Only this week, the president of the Royal Society of London Martin Rees on a visit to Australia told us once more that mainstream science is in agreement; climate is changing, it’s due to us and we need to worry. But why is this attitude, confirmed by leaders of academies and researchers in the field, so much disputed by so-called sceptics? Let me take you to a symposium set up by the American Association for the Advancement of Science especially to illuminate this quandary with facts. Five speakers, and the first is Riley Dunlap from Oklahoma State University, on science books.

    http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2010/2859986.htm

  120. Urederra (03:21:28) :

    “Waiting for a Climate Change or a Global Warming Journal, but I don’t want to search it, I am afraid of founding it.”

    You sure as **** would:

    Asia-Pacific Journal of Climate Change

    Climatic Change

    Climate Change Business Journal

    Energy, economics and climate change.

    Global climate change digest.

    International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management

    International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW)

    Journal of Climatic Change

    Journal of Water and Climate Change

    Nature Climate Change

    Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

    And I’m sure the list is far from complete. It’s getting pretty crowded on the gravy train….

  121. Steve Goddard (10:00:18) :

    It is one year of late blooming. There have been more years of early blooming. The trend is towards earlier although late can still happen. All you are doing is pointing out variation around a long-term trend, which to me, seems irrelevant and pointless.

    Disprove the long-term trend towards earlier or this is a useless exercise.

  122. Tom W (11:24:16) :
    Bill Tuttle (10:46:27) :
    The odds however favour small error. Without additional evidence it would be foolish to assume otherwise
    “considering there was only random sampling of both the air and water temps in random locations which *didn’t* include Antarctica,”
    Read this and get back to me

    [hadobs.metoffice.com/crutem3/HadCRUT3_accepted.pdf]
    Okay, I read it and I’m back.

    From para 3.1, referencing marine and land area measurements:

    “An uncertainty has been estimated for the correction”
    “the uncertainty estimates cannot be definitive”
    “where there are known sources of uncertainty, estimates of the size of those uncertainties have been made”
    “there may be different sources of uncertainty as yet unquantified”
    “the aim of weighting by area was to place more weight on the more reliable [land area] data source”
    “in poorly observed areas [outside of the shipping lanes and] like the Southern Ocean, the [measuring and sampling] error is much larger”

    So, the answer to my question, “How do you determine the *actual* temperature of an entire hemisphere when you don’t have the assets to measure it?” is, “You can’t determine the *actual* temperature — you can only take your best guess.”

    And I actually *did* learn quite a bit about the behind-the-scenes work that goes into *gathering* data — thanks for the link!

  123. Tom W (11:24:16) :

    No matter what links you supply, the fact is that there was not a single permanent weather station in Antarctica before 1957. You never wondered why all the illustrations in that paper you linked to applied to 1969?

  124. Digsby (04:45:25) :

    But the GISS extrapolations showed Siberia to be many, many degrees above normal. WUWT???

  125. AndrewP (14:07:05) :

    Winter in the UK was coldest since 1963, and coldest in northern Scotland on record. Last winter was coldest in 13 years.

    “Long-term trend” is often defined as climate types as “go back far enough to catch the upswing, but not far enough to catch the last downswing.”

    Like in Greenland, where many climate scientists believe that time began in 1980, because the earlier years don’t work with CAGW theory.
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=431042500000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1

  126. @Thomas J. Arnold

    You say:

    > But in some people’s small minds, a mild winter is a harbinger of greater and more serious consequences and put a few mild winters together and bingo! Man-made Global Warming.

    And then segue neatly into:

    > 2009 was quite cold, 2010 was even more so and I find that spring seems to be finding it’s old rhythm quite nicely and we will have bluebells in May as we did in the past~ no panic!

    Do you honestly not see the irony?

  127. Tom W (13:48:57) :

    “Have you brought any of those with you today?”

    Let me bring you this.

    Only this week, the president of the Royal Society of London Martin Rees on a visit to Australia told us once more that mainstream science is in agreement; climate is changing, it’s due to us and we need to worry…

    See, Tom, this is claptrap. Once more, an appeal to authority.

    Mainstream science is NOT in agreement. That’s an outright lie. But you seem to believe it.

    Climate is NOT changing or even varying outside of previously seen norms. That’s an outright lie. But you seem to believe it.

    It’s not due to us, because it’s not happening. We don’t need to worry because nothing out of the ordinary is happening.

    But that won’t work, will it Tom? Because in your head that simply makes me a “denier” and you can safely ignore me. Isn’t that right? Because your Martin Rees is an “authority”, and you are appealing to authority. A valid debating tactic, if you don’t actually care about science or finding out the truth about something… if your only goal is to debate and mock those who disagree with your findings.

    But the majority of regulars here on WUWT are definitely interested in finding out the truth about things, are very interested in the SCIENCE as opposed to the politics. So your feeble reply is valueless.

    But do, please, try again. You are, unintentionally I’m sure, entertaining in your own way.

  128. Spring is building up a massive explosion because of all the pent up energy of the cold weather delay? Gimme a break! Speaking as a Canadian who’s seem many a long cold spring, there is no sudden jump out of the starting gate. It simply warms up and the normal course of events take place.

  129. tty (14:15:03) : No matter what links you supply, the fact is that there was not a single permanent weather station in Antarctica before 1957.

    Which is why there are larger error bars over land earlier on (fig. 12). Had you read the paper you would have learned that the error is not fatal however since it is less than the observed warming signal. This is because

    a) Antarctica represents only about 5% of the area of the Southern Hemisphere and

    b) 80% of the southern hemisphere is ocean (vs 60% in the northern hemisphere)

    The lack of observations in the southern hemisphere is therefore partially compensated by the fact that the surface air temperatures has a much smaller spatial and temporal variability over the ocean than over land and is therefore easier to estimate.

    You never wondered why all the illustrations in that paper you linked to applied to 1969?

    Actually Figs 10 through 17 go back to the mid to late 1800’s. Astonishing how often climate discombobulators mess up simple facts. If I didn’t know better I think it was deliberate.

  130. My SIL and some family members took an early vacation on the Scottish coast.

    She left after 2 days because of the cold, snow and rain.

  131. CodeTech (15:21:57) :Mainstream science is NOT in agreement.

    Nonsense. EVERY national science academy has issued a statement on global warming and none deny the influence of humans. The same is true of every related professional society.

    The usual climate discombobulator argument:

    They begin by claiming there is no consensus and when that is shown to be false they retreat to the claim that consensus is irrelevant.

  132. Tom W (13:48:57)

    the usual sententious nonsense. we can safely ignore climate prognostications from the Royal Society, or any other official institution that decrees an edict as a tablet of stone thrown from above. Thanks anyway. Lets stick to the data and variables across the entire range of climatology – herein lies the paradox – which no scientific institution, nay individual can fathom. The task is more complex than playing 200 games of chess simulataneously and winning them all blindfolded.

  133. P Wilson (17:27:01) : “the usual sententious nonsense. we can safely ignore climate prognostications from the Royal Society, or any other official institution that decrees an edict as a tablet of stone thrown from above. ”

    Far be it from me to infringe on you democratic right to ignore science or wear a loincloth.

  134. FACT: In 1997 the “World Scientists Call For Action” petition called global warming “one of the most serious threats to the planet” and urged immediate action to control greenhouse gases. It was signed by many of the world’s most distinguished scientists, including the majority of living Nobel laureates.

  135. Tom W (16:17:34) :

    The UK Met Office has botched one long term forecast after another – always on the high side – and no one takes them seriously any more – not even The Guardian. But they do argue the consensus viewpoint, which should make you happy.

    When scientific organisations issue statements of consensus that fly in the face of observational evidence, all they do is destroy their own credibility.

  136. “When scientific organisations issue statements of consensus that fly in the face of observational evidence, all they do is destroy their own credibility.”

    Do you have any real examples or just discombobulator boiler plate?

  137. Tom W (17:55:28) :

    Fact: According to CRU’s Phil Jones, temperatures have not increased since 1995. Your Nobel Laureate friends can relax. Their fears appear to be unfounded.

    What most people fail to understand is that physics only calls for a 1C rise with a doubling of CO2. The catastrophic projections are based on some extremely shaky theory of positive feedbacks, that has little or no support in observational evidence.

  138. The trolls seem to be on the move these days. Any of you been rooting around under bridges and disturbing them?

    Seriously, though, just about every thread for the past week seems to have attracted at least one, and often several, super-energetic troglodytes who seem hell-bent on diverting the discussion.

    I scanned back across a bunch of articles, and noticed that some of them were posting more or less non-stop for the better part of a day or night. Is somebody running an AGW call center out there somewhere? That kind of dedication generally requires remuneration.

    /dr.bill

  139. Tom W

    Most of these societies have been infiltrated with activists obtaining back door appointments.

  140. I’m interested in Digsby’s post above. It flies in the face of the anomoly charts featured on here in recent posts. The speculation was GHCN/GISS, etc., are extrapolating cherry picked warm stations to the entire arctic.

    Digsby’s post seems to imply Siberia was record cold. What gives? I suspect Russians know how to measure temperature in Siberia a lot better than Hansen, et al can extrapolate it for them. WUWT?

  141. Tom W (10:48:53) :

    Climate science is settled – the world is warming

    Published Tuesday April 6th, 2010

    http://telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com/opinion/article/1007536

    Time to pack it in lads…

    ——————–

    Wow – you argue this on the evidence of the mighty Telegraph Journal, a tiny regional newspaper, based in Saint John, New Brunswick, owned by the local oil and pulp-and-paper Irving family, which virtually owns the province of New Brunswick. This family of oil tycoons in the past has been suspected of influencing both provincial politics and the content of the papers. Thomas Mueller, who is based in Rothsay, is well-known to local readers as a frequent writer of letters to the editor on many subjects, his letters always being of a left-wing bent. Kind of a local crank. I’m not a local any more – sometimes his letters also appear in the National Post, and jog my memory. Good to understand what you consider to be quote-worthy authorities on global warming, Tom W. I’ll take you even less seriously in future.

  142. Tom W (16:17:34) :

    CodeTech (15:21:57) :Mainstream science is NOT in agreement.

    Nonsense. EVERY national science academy has issued a statement on global warming and none deny the influence of humans. The same is true of every related professional society.

    The usual climate discombobulator argument:

    They begin by claiming there is no consensus and when that is shown to be false they retreat to the claim that consensus is irrelevant.

    Sorry tom, but that’s just retarded.

    So are you in agreement with everything said on your behalf? Did President Bush speak for you? Or Paul Martin or Chretien or Blair or whoever was your alleged leader? Really? Always? Accurately?

    You’ve now officially jumped the shark.

  143. Steve Goddard (18:09:31) : Fact: According to CRU’s Phil Jones, temperatures have not increased since 1995. Your Nobel Laureate friends can relax. Their fears appear to be unfounded.

    Is that your best example? Not very impressive because it is FALSE.

    What Jones did in fact say is that the period 1995 is too short to obtain a statistically significant warming AT THE 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL but only just. In other words it is implied that he can find statistically significant warming at lower confidence level.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm

  144. Steve Goddard (18:09:31) :

    In fact Jones found a warming of .12 C per decade with a confidence level slightly below 95%, a result far from your claim that he found no warming.

    Who exactly is misrepresenting the science here?

  145. Steve Goddard (20:56:54) :
    Tom W

    Yes, Had-Crut shows temperatures warming out of control.

    Let’s review.

    Right after it was noted that the statistical significance of a warming trend DECREASES with the length of the interval used and that 1995-2009 was too short to obtain 95% confidence. What does Steve do in addition to cherry-picking the starting point 1998? He DECREASES the length of the interval even more to make it even less statistically significant.

  146. Tom W (17:41:12)

    i don’t follow your reasoning. Rephrased: There’s very little reasoning. A great deal of invective and vituperation. That is: Nothing but attitude and arrogance.

    Do you work for the CRU by any chance?

  147. Tom W (21:05:27) :

    No, what I showed you is that any warming that occurred after 1995 occurred prior to 1998 – and there hasn’t been any since.

    Some trend.

  148. Tom W (21:05:27) :

    Last year’s nitpicking issues against a tide of truth. Been there, seen it worked it to death.

    You might as well say that a piece of tissue plus a piece of tissue makes double the tissue in a sea of Andrex. Better still, you might as well argue that doubling the speed of the train will decrease the distance between London and Edinburgh.

  149. “i don’t follow your reasoning. Rephrased: There’s very little reasoning. A great deal of invective and vituperation. That is: Nothing but attitude and arrogance.”

    No big deal. People who hold strong opinions on subjects they know nothing about often claim those who know something are ‘arrogant.’

  150. “No, what I showed you is that any warming that occurred after 1995 occurred prior to 1998 – and there hasn’t been any since.”

    Unlike Jones, Steve doesn’t care about statistical significance.

    At least we have here for all to see.

  151. Tom W (21:20:05) :

    Quite so. Its no big deal. On the other hand, Alice might have thought the Queen of Hearts as fairly arrogant. Oh! But then what did the lion think of the Ice Queen?

    Its time to close the wardrobe door.

  152. Steve Goddard (14:45:18) :

    The UK has been warming for 100 years. Is that far enough back for you? 2 cold SEASONS doesn’t mean diddly squat.

  153. BBC environmental commentator, Richard Black, seems to have
    missed the three week late bluebell and other plants advisory.
    His posting of 7 April 2010 covers a report by Mr. Richard
    Smithers of the Woodland Trust:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8606406.stm

    and describes their data acquisition and processing technique thusly:

    “Mr Smithers’ team developed a technique for blending fragmented records in a way that takes account of where in the UK the records came from, what length of time they cover, and the differences between the flowering times of different species, from the snowdrops of early Spring to the ivy of Autumn.”

    They’ve arrived at a fomula derived from these multiple-source observations that essentially says that for every 1 degree
    centigrade in increased average temperature (based on the
    Central England Temperature Record) you’ll get plants blooming
    five days earlier than they did 30 years ago.

    Thus, 2.0+ degrees increase = 11 days “earlier”.

    Bibbity, bobbity, boo. Climate science is so simple !

  154. R.S.Brown (00:37:53)

    that means three weeks late represents a temperature decrease of 4.8C than was the case three years ago in England, and that the temperature has on average decreased suddenly on a hockey stick formulation back to where it was 33 years ago

    My goodness it is simple

  155. The opinion piece that Tom W linked to, claiming that it was the coup de grace for CAGW scepticism, was, in fact, so pathetically (even laughably) weak that I became instantly suspicious that he must actually have come here to satirize the CAGW side of the argument. And I still can’t decide if that is really the case or if rather he is just another sophist troll who cares nothing for truth but only for massaging his own bloated ego in public.

  156. Tom W (15:55:52) :
    The lack of observations in the southern hemisphere is therefore partially compensated by the fact that the surface air temperatures has a much smaller spatial and temporal variability over the ocean than over land and is therefore easier to estimate.

    The air masses over the ocean are neither homogeneous nor static. Temperatures within *any* maritime air mass will vary by 3°C or more, and they can move pretty rapidly (for air masses) because there’s very little in the way of surface friction to slow them. Temperatures reported at sea until well into the 1950s were from merchant ships or warships transiting the sea lanes. A ship’s thermometer during the analog age was marked in increments of one degree and assumed to have a *standard* calibration error of .2°C. But installation error on those ships was completely ignored, and installation error can be measured in whole degrees C. You can not assume accuracy of a tenth of a degree covering a 5° x 5° grid square based on a single measurement when the instrument measuring it may have calibration and installation errors of two or more degrees C.

    Actually Figs 10 through 17 go back to the mid to late 1800’s.

    Figure 13 is a graph of temperature, the remainder are graphs of anomalies or models and the synthetic adjustment to those models. The anomaly and temperature information also included grids in which *no* measurements were taken before 1920 and, in about 8% of the total area (the Southern Ocean and Antarctica), measurements were sparse or nonexistent until the International Geophysical Year — 1957.

    Astonishing how often climate discombobulators mess up simple facts.

    That’s a two-way street, innit?

    If I didn’t know better I think it was deliberate.

    If I didn’t know better, I’d think you were deliberately ignoring my question — how can you posit an *accurate* (to a tenth of a degree C) measurement of an entire hemisphere during a time period when observations over 60% of the total area were only made in 5% of that area — the sea lanes — and were made by people using instruments that are only marked in whole degrees and which probably had inherent errors of additional full degrees?

    Now add that well over half of the entire hemisphere was only measured sporadically (or not at all) until well into the Twentieth Century and HadCRUT specifically says it *estimated* those maritime surface temperatures -– which means they took a guess.

  157. Tom W (09:06:51) :

    After dominating the board for two days, you invoke the censorship defense and check out.

  158. Steve Goddard (16:19:17) :

    Tom W (09:06:51) :

    After dominating the board for two days, you invoke the censorship defense and check out.

    Did you expect different? And I don’t mean that even in a sarcastic manner… one day someone will troll around WUWT and actually have logical arguments that are reasonable.

    Alas, that day has not yet arrived.

    Meanwhile their ad homs and mocking tone combined with shocking ignorance are actually amusing to some of us. They’re just so certain that they are right. It really doesn’t occur to them that most of us used to argue for cAGW too, until we paid attention…

  159. So I am a kind of a local crank of a left-wing bent. ?! ROTFLMAO!

    Thank you that really made my day. Fact is I am published far more often in the Right-Wing National Post than in the local paper.

    Listen, when the nutbars present get current and cite papers more recent than 1937 and 1865 to contradict me – I’ll get back to you.

    ITMT – I suggest you could begin with
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/

    If that is too much for you – an excellent synopsis of the debate both pro and con:

    http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15719298

  160. Tom W

    The Science Show on the ABC here in Oz. Well, there you go. Look at the list of usual suspects, including the presenter. It’s not worth two bob as an unbiassed statement of the position.

    I’m a graduate Chemical Engineer. I’m also a strong DENIER of any significant AGW and a less strong denier of any GW.

    How dare you imply that I have taken that position because I’m a scientific ignoramus.

    Wash your mouth out with strong soap.

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