England Buried In Snow – image from The Times
According to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, last month had the second greatest December Northern Hemisphere snow cover since records were started in 1966. Snow extent was measured at 45.86 million sq. km, topped only by 1985 at 45.99 million sq. km. North America set a record December extent at 15.98 million sq. km, and the US also set a December record at 4.16 million sq. km.
Source: December Snow Cover from Rutgers University
Source: December Snow Anomalies from Rutgers University
This is not an isolated event for 2009, as can be seen in the graph below. Seventeen of the last twenty-one Decembers have had above normal snow cover.
Source: December Snow Cover Anomalies from Rutgers University
Nor is it an isolated trend for the month of December. January, 2008 was the second snowiest January on record, and six out of the last eight Januaries have had above normal snow.
Source: January Snow Cover Anomalies from Rutgers University
October, 2009 was the snowiest October on record in the US, and sixth snowiest in the Northern Hemisphere. Twelve of the last fifteen Octobers have had above normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, similar to the pattern of the 1970s.
Source: October Snow Cover Anomalies from Rutgers University
A favorite mantra of the global warming community is that reduced snow cover will reduce the albedo of the earth and provide positive feedback to global warming – causing additional warming. Clearly that is not happening, at least not during the October through January time period.
2010 is also getting off to a fast start. Most of Europe and North America is covered with snow, as is much of Asia.
Daily Snow Cover from Rutgers University
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Brrrrrrrrrr. If that snow makes it to my neck of the woods, I’ll have to buy some warmer clothes.
Absurd. There is no snow. No ice. Everything is melting. Except where it isn’t.
Looks like the UK has a lot of snow. What does that do to wind turbines? Blade unbalance, anyone? Considering that they plan to run the entire country with them.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/01/08/wind-farms-power-uk/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%253A+foxnews%252Fscitech+%2528Text+-+SciTech%2529
(this is so long it probably won’t work, but I have yet to figure out tiny.url)
The weather outside is frightful, the damage to AGW delightful…
In unrelated news, the Sun continues to produce anaemic sunspecks in an abject travesty of a solar cycle.
Of course, we all realize that this is “rotten” snow…
Down here in SC we had 2 good snow storms in December which rarely happens, much less having the snow stick around for as long as it has. Asheville, NC (home of the NCDC) still has snow on the ground…. go figure.
I’m sure that someone will trot out the old, “This is not inconsistent with our models” fare. Someone needs to ask those guys exactly how much snow and cold it would require for them to admit that their models have nothing to do with reality.
Something I have noticed this winter season is the seesaw of statistics–Cold, snowy October followed by fair November, then a rough December. So on this basis, maybe January will moderate some, then look-out for spring.
The winter of 1948-1949 was hell in the western U.S. I wonder how some of the months of that winter season would compare?
Actually feel sorry for the lady in the 2CV- good car in weather not on hills.
mainly due to the clearance and FWD…
What are the predicted effects of AGW? Is it colder and more snow? Or warmer and wetter? Hmm…
Can’t wait for the “extreme weather events are consistent with the theory of anthropogenic global warming” statement.
Isn’t there an increase of precipitation when CO2 rises? (ie. Global Warming)
Do the Brits have snow tires?
NOAA animation of last 31 days of snow cover. It ends with January 10, it isn’t just for the month of December.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/nhem-1mo-loop.html
I voted ‘yes’ because of the Arctic blast that’s reaching southward and turning what would have normally been rain in January into snow.
Saw this on Gizmodo. Brrrrrr!
A favorite mantra of the global warming community…
They also say that warming will cause increased snow in winter from the humidity that warming creates. But this extra snow is not from a warming climate but from a cooling climate. So their hypothesis couldn’t apply to this snow.
Cross Country skiing anyone??
Remember, weather isn’t climate (unless it’s hot weather in which case it proves that Global Warming is true).
A few good graphics like these from the Rutgers Snow Lab are indeed worth a 1000 words (and then some). All one can say is that right now wherever the sun is shining in the Northern Hemisphere, a whole lot of solar energy is getting reflected from all of that snow-covered ground. . . .
SIDEBAR: CNN had a pretty good few 5 minutes or so on CNN Newsroom tonight; on the extent of the cold and snow cover all over the Northern Hemisphere. They didn’t focus on climate change; but gave a pretty good overview of how cold and snow-covered it is in much of N.A., Europe, and Russia.
If you are not into Skiing, how about dog sleds and snow shoes. I hear the Inuit would eat the dogs if things got really tight. Can’t do that with a snow mobile!!
Interesting. I suppose snow cover is a little harder to fake than temperatures (although who’s counting these millions of square units?). 17 of 21 Decembers is fascinating, especially since that includes what is supposed to be the two warmest decades ever.
However I noticed that February through September show BELOW average snow cover, and in fact if you follow the links and fiddle with the dates, months like June show 19 of the last 21 years having much below average snow cover…
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6
…this data almost suggests that summers and winters are both becoming more extreme… thoughts?
lots more in here anthony….
9 Jan: Philly Inquirer: Climate expert in the eye of an integrity storm
By Faye Flam
Mann points out that the hockey stick is not widely seen as a smoking gun implicating human activity in global warming. And it was not the giant graph used in Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth. That was a graph of the carbon dioxide component of our atmosphere – which also is rising sharply.,,
Michaels also flagged an e-mail in which Mann discussed a reference he was writing for Jones. In that, Mann misstated a number called the “h index,” which measures a scientist’s productivity and influence.
Mann said it was just an error in a hastily typed private e-mail, in which he meant to say 52 but instead said 62. He produced a copy of the official letter, in which he got the number correct.
He said he was surprised that Michaels would castigate him over a typographical error. “They’ve sunk to a new low,” Mann said of the e-mails. “This shows they’ve given up legitimate debate.”
There is still much debate over how big a role human activity plays in the current warming trend, and how the future will be affected. Climate science – and earth science in general – is not expected to make the kinds of sharp predictions that chemists and physicists can make with repeated experiments. “It would be nice if we could do controlled experiments,” Mann said. “But we have only one Earth.”
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepage/81058187.html?viewAll=y
jonova: The Carbon Market Blinks — $130b trainwreck slows
Point Carbon issued a report this week estimating that the world wide market in carbon trading in 2009 totalled around $136 billion dollars, which is not much higher than the 2008 figure. After years of living in a rapacious bubble, prices are about 60% below the peaks of 2008, carbon traders are starting to peel out into other commodities, and the sails are looking decidedly flat on the Maxi Yacht known as Carbon-Credits Inc….ETC
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/01/the-carbon-market-blinks%e2%80%94130b-trainwreck-slows/
Increased snow cover will increase the albedo of the earth and provide positive feedback to global cooling – causing additional cooling. Not a good thing.
Carl Chapman (19:51:23) :
>Remember, weather isn’t climate (unless it’s hot weather
>in which case it proves that Global Warming is true).
Umm…I’ve suffered a defeat by a hair in posting that.
Hello.
“Because Steven Mosher had the files several days before they reached the internet.”
http://bigjournalism.com/pcourrielche/2010/01/10/peer-to-peer-review-part-ii-how-climategate-marks-the-maturing-of-a-new-science-movement/
I know, I know – it’s weather, not climate, but it’s getting old (both the weather and hearing that lame mantra).
Buffalo’s snow season started a bit late but we’re now about 3″ above the season average through today, with a few more coming in tomorrow. Guess I can look on the bright side – we haven’t had a string of days with snow totals measuring over 6′ – yet.
I voted “no” on the poll – the long term trend for the next 15 days is for warmer, zonal pattern to develop. Here in the central part of Illinois, it is rare for us to keep snow on the ground for more than two weeks. I suspect that much of it will melt off if the forecast is correct…
Well…..
I would like to think we were better than a bunch of savages being hypnotized by a witch doctor. But alas……
The ancient give us your virgins and your crops or we’ll ruin the weather trick is as old as humanity. You gotta give Gore et al credit for going with what works.
The modern witch doctors made a grave mistake in claiming there was only one direction to to the anger of the gods to which they alone were privy.
Even a third rate purveyor of snake oil knows to focus on the anger not the outcome…….LMAO
Monty
Well, temps. have now warmed up across Canada. I’m in the warmest location where it’s a balmy 12 deg. C (53.6F). Unfortunately, it’s been umbrella weather, with no end in sight. Welcome to the “Wet Coast of BC”.
Damn you El Nino!!
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/canada_e.html
Voted No.
We lost at least 50 percent of our snow cover in the past two days here in Southern Alberta. By next weekend ,I’d guess a large portion of where I live will be bare. (90% bare : 10% snow)
That smart car wasn’t looking too smart… old technology seems to work fine, however:
http://thereifixedit.com/2010/01/08/bugs-try-to-adapt-to-wintry-weather/
anthony,
just found your thread on the michael mann interview. been watching too much tennis and must have missed it.
REPLY: You can’t take your eyes off WUWT for more than a few seconds or you’ll miss something. – A
Clive (20:46:42)
Voted No.
We lost at least 50 percent of our snow cover in the past two days here in Southern Alberta. By next weekend ,I’d guess a large portion of where I live will be bare. (90% bare : 10% snow)
The first nations of Southern Alberta referred to chinooks as “Snow eater”. Just when the cross country skiing here in Calgary was excellent….guess I have to drive a little further.
If cooler summers are upon us, such as was seen in Europe for two years, we be in for trouble. It isn’t the amount of snow in winter that is the telling measure, it is the amount that does not melt in summer because of cooler temps that brings on the next little ice age.
Alvin (19:43:04) :
Do the Brits have snow tires?
They are available, as well as snow chains which for the vast majority of England would probably be more cost effective.
Most major roads are clear, just getting to them can be a problem.
We’ve had a warm year overall in eastern Oz, and there’s been plenty of reportage of that. Curiously, however, we’ve had a drought break during an El Nino – with little discussion. The opposite situation would have been hyped for sure. Also curious: the lack of reportage of the very damp, very cold winters of ’07 and ’08.
Thanks for the post…but couldn’t some alert WUWT reader in the Second-Best Hemisphere find a Prius buried under snow?
Talk about snow jobs.
Who is paying $136 Billion for carbon offsets?
What are these folks smoking? I have several bridges for sale.
Oops, I forgot – global warming is causing the snow – It never snowed before and we really want to kill all plant life (by hiding the CO2).
Does anyone else think the insane are out of the asylum?
I am a EE and not a scientist but I have followed AWG from its inception with a great deal of interest. It is my right as an informed person just as it is anyone’s right to understand the world we all live in.
What amazes me is we should be apologetic and offer proof man made global warming doesn’t exist. I believe from what I learn that there is be global warming. I believe it is a good good thing; we are still coming out of the Little Ice Age and temperatures have yet to fully recover from that episode.
What concerns me more than anything is the wholesale dismissal that anything good can come from warming temperatures. The message from AWG proponents is:
1) Our climate is perfect now.
2) CO2 is a toxin.
3) Human activity affects the climate.
1) Who says? What is the norm? 200 years ago it was a little cooler, a thousand years ago it was warmer. 15,000 years ago it was ice-age colder. Who picks what’s just right? Let me help out here; humans are hairless apes and they do best when temperatures are 25C or better.
The northern hemisphere has a disproportionate land area north of the tropics. An awful lot lies above the arctic circle. Can you imagine a world that was warmer and made these lands productive and livable? It would be a warmer world than we have now.
2) CO2 is the staff of life. All mammalian life depends on flora. We happen to be humans. Herbivores eat plants, we eat plants, we eat herbivores who eat plants. Meanwhile plants eat CO2. Our present levels of CO2 are at near famine level concentration for plants; trees die when concentrations drop below 200 ppm and we are at only 380 ppm. Plants need CO2; every indoors pot farmer knows this, that is why they flood the growing area with 1,000 ppm CO2. They are the true pragmatists.
CO2 may be a greenhouse gas but it’s a poor one in effectiveness and quantity. The 800-lb gorilla is water vapor, it is far more potent and far more plentiful. Why pick on CO2, its concentration has always lagged temperature by centuries rises in the past. It is a follower, not a leader. It has no effect on temperate directly.
3) Human activity. This is pure hubris. Where ever did we get the idea we are so important we think what we do has any effect on our earth’s climate? A few medium size volcano eruptions can place more CO2 and SO2 in the atmosphere than all of our human efforts. A little bit of humility would go a long way to understanding our true place in the greater scheme of things.
We have people that thought otherwise. They came up with 1-3 for the most debased of reasons, to make money. The CRU crew and others were government funded (as opposed to big oil funded) scientists and they crafted a nearly perfect crime. Their sponsors, the politicians, invented a way to make money with cap-and-trade. Meanwhile the scientists whored-out science itself to keep the grant money coming in. It was a match made in heaven and this synergism worked very well for 15 years until Nov 21, 2009.
Yeah yeah weather isn’t Climate. But didn’t these wags take measurements of weather from thousands of individual locations (each with it’s own micro climate) and extrapolate 100yr Climate projections from those?
What if Yamal Peninsula (of the tree ring fame) experienced weather extremes during the 2000yr reconstruction? Didn’t these wags claim this data was indicative of global climate? They produced hockey sticks from this data to “prove” their point.
They can’t have it both ways, if weather isn’t climate (and it isn’t) than any weather data isn’t useful.
These data should be put aside along with the IPCC and a whole new climate regime started.
It is only a matter of time….rather moments….when “they” declare this NH record snowcover…as being caused by AGW.
Everything is caused by AGW. Hot….cold…..snow….rain….drought.
Believe what you want to believe, Michael Mann, and your limp-wristed hockey team that never plays by the rules.
But, sports aside, I personally am more apt to “believe” in the fact that humans (not exempt from swarm or schooling complexities) do, even in their current level of evolution, behave just like other “lesser” species, that is, in a SWARM fashion.
We are only beginning to breach this area of study in organism behavior….and humans are not exempt.
Nay….the great hoax of the AGW religion is a great case study.
The earth is cooling dumb-***! Prepare for it. Or prepare to meet a darwinian end.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
I am also an EE by schooling and we seem to have reached similar conclusions independently of each other.
Strange that the Arctic sea ice extent is still rather low.
REPLY: well, that’s where you’d be wrong for example http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=01&fd=01&fy=1999&sm=01&sd=01&sy=2010
Retired Engineer (18:58:53) :
What does that do to wind turbines? Blade unbalance, anyone?
It’s worse than that. Large modern windmills can throw 4′ long shards, (javelins, really) of ice up to several hundred meters. These can skewer cars, pets and houses.
http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/ice-tossing-turbines-myth-or-hazard/
joshuahedlund (20:02:19) :
…this data almost suggests that summers and winters are both becoming more extreme… thoughts?
—-
Reply: I’ve read scientists that say weather will get more extreme just before another ice epoch begins. Considering the timeline since the last glacial and the length of this interglacial, it could very well be that’s what we’re seeing. And when it comes (for I believe it is inevitable), everyone (but global warmers in particular) will be shocked with the totally inhospitable weather nature will be serving up. Snow accumulations across Canada, Russia and Europe could amount to 10 feet a year with little or no melting in the “summertime”. Grim, indeed.
savethesharks:
The White House has already confirmed that it’s because of CC.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xbsvib_gibbs-worldwide-record-cold-result_news
Check out the UK Winter Deaths for the last few years (35,000 last year). This year they think it could be much much worse.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=574
Who told you that warming is bad ?
It depends on how you look at arctic ice coverage. If you look at 30% coverage like DMI does, then we have the greatest coverage today that we have had in the past 5 years. If you look at 15% coverage, then we are pretty close to where we have been for the past 4 years.
The thing is that maximum coverage has no relationship to where we will be at summer minimum. 2006, for example saw pretty low maximum coverage but greater summer minimum than any year since. 2008 saw much more coverage at winter maximum but had less coverage at summer minimum than 2006 had.
If you look at these graphs you will see that ice area is *just* outside of 1 standard deviation from the average … or just about “normal”. Ice extent, however is lower but right about where it was last year. Having a “normal” ice area but a lower ice extent means that what ice exists is compacted and more consolidated than normal. Imagine you have 100 square miles of ice but it is broken and scattered. The ice area is 100 square miles but that ice extends over a great area. Now imagine you have 100 square miles of ice but it is consolidated. You still have 100 square miles of ice, the area didn’t change, the the extent changed. In my opinion, the only thing that matters is area, not extent. It is area that tells you how much ice you have. Extent only tells you how stormy it has been.
You can have a greater “extent” with a given area but in the end you still have just as much ice. For climate purposes, area is the only thing that matters, in my opinion.
I voted no. In a completely unscientific analysis, I seem to have noticed that these extreme cold periods see-saw in and out. I’m not betting Jan will set a record. But February…. ?
The warmers seem to think we’ve had a couple sunspots, so now we’ll warm up. But I’m expecting a protracted decline over several years. Spots or no spots.
If we start another Dalton (or worse) I’m expecting that more snow will fail to melt from higher elevations at lower latitudes in successive summers.
On Channel 10 news tonight in Australia, while it’s getting a bit warmer here in Sydney, there are freezing conditions in Florida apparently, turtles “out cold” due to the cold waters, ice-locked cars. Citrus fruit growers are a bit concerned about the predictions of more cold to come. Price of OJ to rise? And -42 in Nroway, a 20 year record.
2010 will be an interesting year.
While you’re off topic on sea-ice; when the Arctic Oscillation dropped and brought snow to Copenhagen the ice extent growth was unusually slow. You can clearly see the circle from the Beaufort gyre on the October charts. Less ice extent but much thicker ice I’m guessing.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2009/110309.html
Oops, sorry, I had written a long boring post, meant to cut out the Copenhagen part too. AO was negative in October too :\
If the globe keeps warming like this we will all freeze to death.
Dr A Burns (22:16:23) :
Strange that the Arctic sea ice extent is still rather low.
REPLY: well, that’s where you’d be wrong for example http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=01&fd=01&fy=1999&sm=01&sd=01&sy=2010
**************************
Given the fact that most of the Northern Hemisphere is freezing its collective butt off, I can kinda see the good Dr’s point. Without more detailed analysis, you might expect more sea ice extent.
Upon further examination though, there are explanations – for example, the link on Tips and Notes showing the unusual gulfstream flow up the West Coast of Greenland.
What I’m amazed at though is the fact that the Denmark Strait IS going to freeze over completely this year.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.some.004.png
I’m predicting that the JAXA sea ice extent will be higher than ever measured previously come late February. They started measuring in 2001/2 right ??
Anthony; I checked out the above sea icesite, WOW! took a while to digest the information presented. People out there you have got to see this. or maybe WUWT will post an article.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2010-01/11/content_12787170.htm
and it continues to worsen in China.
as Marie-Antoinette Gore would say, if they can’t have fish, let them eat cake…..
regards
Frank (19:34:45) :
What are the predicted effects of AGW? Is it colder and more snow? Or warmer and wetter?
Yes.
And colder and less snow, and warmer and drier.
I think I’ll get a pair of these.
http://www.icebike.org/images/inuit_large.jpg
It’s cold in Chicago…the Chicago Carbon Exchange, that is…
The green line is temperature…no, wait, it’s the price of carbon credits…my bad.
http://www.chicagoclimatex.com/market/data/summary.jsf
Ten cents a ton????
If you look at the state of the world when all of this started, I don’t think that the creators of the AGW scare considered the idea that the Internet would allow people to share information to the extent that it has. I think they were living in a world where the main media outlets controlled what people knew about things. Think about it … what was YOUR email address in 1989?
What has derailed “the plan” was the ability for people to make an end run around the people who controlled information flow at the time the idea was being put forward. Nobody at that time had any inkling that the “unwashed masses” would be allowed access to the Internet and be able to exchange information and opinion freely to anyone who cared to read it.
The whole notion of AGW being used to manage government spending relies on the ability to “manage” public opinion and with the Internet, there is no longer any guarantee that the traditional information outlets will be able to manage that opinion.
Here’s to Liberty!
People are skating on the canals in Amsterdam.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8451006.stm
Fairly rare.
Maybe we should start heating things up a bit.
Anyone for geothermal?
Or, if we are brave, maybe a few thousand nuclear power plants?
We need time to build either system and if we have 20-30 years before an ice age – times-a-wastin!
BTW-wind and solar are not enough to cut it-there is not enough energy there.
I would double check those figures, I know for a fact that it hasn’t snowed in W. Yorkshire for over an hour now.
Mann O Mann (23:25:38) :
People are skating on the canals in Amsterdam.
RRkampen will be ecstatic.
Crosspatch (23:23:5c) I’ll drink to that! One large scotch on the rocks. ‘To Liberty and free flowing dissemination of information.’
Speaking of ice: ‘ Hazardous zone! Menace of flying ice shards on Windmill Hill’.
Maybe if we try really hard… “we can HIDE THE DECLINE”!!!
We had snow down to 1000metres here in canterbury new zealand last night in mid summer.
Alvin (19:43:04) :
Do the Brits have snow tires?
Alan the Brit should answer that question (actually, any Brit will do, but I like Alan the Brit’s handle0.
06/01/2010 | 17:00
Record Heat Measured in Iceland in December
The weather was unusually warm in Iceland last December. On December 12, the temperature rose to 15.1°C (59.2°F) at the automatic weather station at Skjaldthingsstadir, east Iceland, which is a record high for that day since temperatures were first registered in Iceland.
The snow in Akureyri in December 2009. Photo by Eygló Svala Arnarsdóttir.
The previous heat record in Iceland on that day was 14.5°C (58.1°F), Morgunbladid reports. Daily records were also broken in Reykjavík on December 11 and 12, when the temperature rose to 11 and 11.5°C (51.8°F and 52.7°F), respectively.
North Iceland saw significant precipitation in December but south and west Iceland little precipitation. The first day of the month was relatively cold but then a period of heat began, which ended on December 18.
Last December was characterized by cold and still weather. However, on Christmas Eve stormy weather and avalanche risk was reported in northwest Iceland. Wind damages were reported in east Iceland and in the Westman Islands on December 19 and 20.
The highest temperature in December 2009 was 15.5°C (59.9°F) in Siglufjördur, north Iceland, on December 11. The month’s lowest temperature in inhabited areas measured -24°C (-11.2°F) at Mývatn in northeast Iceland on December 28.
Click here to read more about the weather in December and here to read a summary of the weather in 2009.
http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=16567&ew_0_a_id=356184
More records on the way?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html
Just found the above article in the Daily Mail of all places
-7 deg C at moment in what is supposed to be the second warmest place in France
David Corcoran (22:21:43)
Luckily the wind isn’t blowing so no flying four foot ice javelins, no electricity either but better safe than sorry (the precautionary principle).
I live in Eastern Oz. The last month and a half has been summer. Apparently. It’s been the coldest wettest summer I can remember.
I fear an ice age is just around the corner and that will be much more dangerous then a warmer world.
The White House in response to a reporter’s question about whether the record-breaking cold is due to global warming:
Someone please get two signatures and a bed for this man!
Hmmm-what happened to the link?
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xbsvib_gibbs-worldwide-record-cold-result_news
Larry (00:01:26)
No but I have got Norwegian socks.
http://www.snowchains.co.uk/main/weisssock.htm
Video is excellent, a pretty girl (with a pink bobble hat) driving an Alfa Romeo in the snow.
But you forgot to mention November, which was a bit mild.
So because of the differential of the linear regression line applied to the RegM calculation we’re actually in the middle of the hottest winter in the last 2000 years.
Looking at the October snow anomalies, you’d say that there was a definite sinusoidal pattern with full cycle of around 30 – 40 years.
Does the data go back further to confirm or refute that suggestion?
With the flip in 1977, you’d hazard a guess it was linked to PDO cycles??
Alvin (19:43:04) :
Do the Brits have snow tires?
No we don’t (over here they are Tyres).
When I was a lad in the sixties in Scotland we used to have winter tyres but of course that was when we were expecting an ice-age any minute.
Do you suppose that all this warm weather we are having has anything to do with the following?
source
I live in South Colorado (near the New Mexico border) since 1991, and this is the first year in my memory when the snow cover didn’t melt for a single day since November. Usually in our neck of the woods snow goes away after two or three sunny days. Not this year. Temperatures are consistently below 0C almost all the time. I feel like in Siberia (home sweet home); politically, too.
December temperatures are among the most volatile.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET2.htm
Here it can be seen that the volatility is poorly represented by moving averages (but useful to show general trend).
Summer / winter temperatures trend:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETt.htm
More temperature records at
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GandF.htm
Michael Jankowski (19:38:29) :
Can’t wait for the “extreme weather events are consistent with the theory of anthropogenic global warming” statement.
http://www.newssniffer.co.uk/articles/298120/diff/17/18
Mr Cameron said: “To be fair this is a very long and a very deep cold snap, so I think we have to be fair about that.
“But we are going to see more extreme weather events and we have to prepare for them better, and we probably do need to have larger stocks to make sure councils have larger stocks so they can cope with longer sessions.”
“Seventeen of the last twenty-one Decembers have had above normal snow cover”
A small comment about terminology – I think the use of the word “normal” in contexts such as these should be replaced with the word “average” , after all measurements such as snow cover, rain, temperatures, etc etc are generally never going to be “normal”, as they’ll either be higher or lower. It’s an average value it’s being compared with, else it’s normal to be abnormal!
Great blog, I love reading the posts. Keep up the good work.
At the risk of being 2ldr (too long didn’t read)
There are a few large factors “they” don’t consider in the models, (that were supposedly proven useless in the 50’s, before computers and peer review came around.)
The Moon drives the tides in the oceans (that they know) the Moon in it’s declinational (North to South) movement moves the atmosphere around and is the strongest driver of global weather patterns. (this is the problem with the models with handling time scales past 3 days to 20 years)
The answers can be found to both enhance short term, (3 days to monthly) forecasts and climate models out to about 15 years or more, by incorporating the periods of the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides and their resultant effects on the Rossby waves and Jet stream patterns, into the models.
I am offering here for your use, the process to fix these problems. If you look at the “forecast maps” generated by the aft mentioned process, you will see they did much better than the NOAA forecasts in the article above.
Notice also the large spring outbreak of tornadoes coming around the 22nd through 25th of march of 2010, is mentioned, hidden in the middle of this rather lengthy read, (maps of the days mentioned can be found posted on the site, updates under the national maps will be updated 2 months in advance to reflect areas of the states expected to be affected, by this outbreak of severe weather.
One of the problems with the current models is the reference time frame is very narrow for initial conditions, and changes with in the past three days, a lot of times, will introduce presistance of inertia, to the medial flows, for several days, consistent with the actual flows, as the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides, make their runs across the equator from one poleward culmination to another.
Then as the tide turns and we have the severe weather bursts at declinational culmination, they get confused, or surprised, as the initial inertial effects reverse for about four days before the sweep to the other pole, that brings back the smooth flows, the models understand.
So that when the Lunar declination went to Maximum North on December 3rd, turbulence and shear introduced into the atmosphere, from the turning tide, (the models do not know about), surprised them with the usual couple of tornadoes. Now (12-13-09) that we are ~20 degrees South Lunar declination, the models have a full buffer, of five days of linear inertial movement, from the Moon’s trip South across the equator (12-09-09) and is slowing it’s movement.
Coming up on the Southern extent culmination, producing a secondary tidal bulge in the Northern Hemisphere, bringing us to the mid point of a 27.32 day declinational cycle (one of the four routine patterns that cycle on an 109.3 day period). This particular one (#1) that started back on Dec 3rd, has incursions of polar air masses that come down from Western Canada, through Montana and the Dakotas, to make up the Northern part of the atmospheric tidal bulge.
So I would expect to see a large invasion of cold dry air sweep almost all the way to the Gulf coast again, then the produced frontal boundary with the interesting weather, that includes change state intense precipitation. Freezing rain, where the warm over runs cold, and snow where the cold undercuts the more sluggish warm air, still moving North East by inertia alone, severe weather to form in that trailing edge of the warm moist mass, that gets over taken from behind by the polar air mass that tries to follow the tidal bulge back to the equator, which for the next 4 of 5 days powers up the cyclonic patterns generated by carolis forces, and finishes out as the Moon approaches the equator again.
Expect the same type of interaction again for a primary bulge production by the passage back North, culminating on 12-30-09, pumping in a solid polar air mass very consistent with the pattern we had on 12-03-09, (the North “lunar declination culmination”)[LDC], then (#2) the next Rossby wave / jet stream regime pattern, comes back into play with much more zonal flow, and air masses invading from the Pacific, (of the two sub types of) phase with lesser amounts of Gulf moisture entrainment in this one, more in the other #4.
The (#3) third 27.32 day pattern with polar air masses invading in from the Minnesota / Great Lakes area and sweeping out through the Eastern sea board, and mostly zonal flow out west, from 01-27-10 till 02-23-10, comes next.
The fourth 27.32 day cycle, that looks very similar to #2 but with much more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, usually has more hail and tornadoes associated with it than Pattern #4, and typically flows up Eastern side of tornado alley. Will be in effect from 02-23-10 through 03-22-10, and should produce the first big surge of severe tornado production, from about March 20th 2010, until about March 26 or later as the Next polar air mass cycle is coming out of western Canada, and should make for steep temperature gradients, and ion content differences.
Richard Holle
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx
From a viewpoint of how the assemblage of parts seamlessly fits together,the only thing you have to do, is to watch the (short but seemingly) endless stream of (every 15 minute) infrared and/or vapor satellite photos animated, (after fixing the jumping around of the originals, due to lack of foresight, that they might be useful some day), and synchronized by 27.32 days periods, to see the repeating cycles.
To set up five tiled windows, in the first show day #1 through #27 sequentially, then as they continue on in the same stream, the cycle of the first 27 days continues anew in window #2, synchronized by Lunar declination to #1. Till they spill over into window #3 stepping in phase with the other two, #4 the same idea gives you the four basic patterns of the Rossby wave 109.3 day cycle, of global circulation, that then repeat but seasonally shifted.
In window #5 then would be the first repeat of window #1 in the same phase of the same pattern, and should look a lot like window #1. As the progression through the total series, proceeds, when you get 6558 days into the five stacks, a 6th window opens and the original day #1 in window #1 opens as #1 in window #6. As the series progresses on, real data can be viewed, in the real interactions going on.
This would give you a look into the cyclic pattern that develops from the repetitive interaction of the inner planets, and tidal effects, caused by the Lunar declination, phase, perigee/ apogee cycles.
By adding a sliding ball, vertically moving up and down a +-30 degree scale bar (referenced from the Equator), on the side of each tile space, that shows the plot of the current Lunar declination for the time of each frame. Which will allow you to see the shifts in the Lunar declinational angle’s effects, as the 18.6 Mn signal progresses.
By adding another slide bar of +-30 degrees (with the heliocentric synod conjunction with Earth, as the zero reference), at the top, of each tile you could view each outer planet as we pass them, as color coded discs labeled, J, S,U, N, shifting from left to right. From viewing this progression of the outer planets, the merit of their influences, can then be seen in the additional surges in ion flux as they go by. You can watch the changes in the normal background, of the global circulation driven by the moon and inner planets, affected by the outer planets.
By adding in the surface maps for the past historic temperatures, dew points, precipitation, types, and amounts, as overlays onto the IR/VAPOR photos, the patterns will be abundantly clear to 10 year old school kids. At the same time, generating a good long term forecast, set of analogs to base the models upon.
Once the amount of additional angular momentum, and the process of it’s coming and goings can be clearly seen, it can then be measured, it’s effects calculated, and incorporated into the climate models, as a real quantized feedback. thereby giving us a much better picture, of the interactions, of all of the parts of the puzzle.
All of the necessary data is in the archives, and free to use, to those that have the where with all, to assemble the real truth, be it inconvenient or not. I will probably spend the rest of my life, trying to do it alone, out of my own funds, as I have done so far.
If you bothered to read the above, you will understand that there are four patterns of global circulation that alternate, (as stated above) from ones of high zonal flow to ones of High medial flow.
This is why the weather patterns run warm during the high zonal flow patterns ( September and November 2009) then cold during the alternate months of October, and December2009.
The patterns induced by the Lunar declination run for 27.325 days at a cycle, as this is just short of a month the pattern slews into and out of phase with the “Monthly periods” so data stored “by Month” has problems with this slewed cyclic corruption. It would help if “they” used sets 27.325 days long to plot trends as they would see sets of clean alternating trends in resultant data sets.
“They” could filter for the long term cyclic patterns, to reduce the noise in the composite signal, to the point that low frequency patterns caused by solar cycle shifts in activity, could also be filtered out leaving the residual surges in solar wind flux caused by the outer planets influence. Then when that is found, and defined well enough to filter out.
What would be left should be the CO2 long term forcing, that will probably be very small, but conform well to the CO2ppm increases, in the atmosphere. THEN we would be able to decide rationally what if anything, needs to be done, about carbon foot prints, and suggestions for controls.
Richard Holle
Here is a nice article from the dailymail about a starting mini ice age.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html
Regards
Dirk
But “it’s a warm snow!” … It must be. If we’re to belive the all time record burning up earth distroying warmth story, then we must have “warm snow” if we’re covered in the stuff.
Anyone know how to write a grant request? I’d like to get a grant to study “warm snow”. I fugure $2 million, 4 or 5 tops, ought to do it. I’ll start with Snow in the Mexican mountains (and I understand it even survives indoors in something called a “frozen Margareta” and then head off to Brazil, where I’ve heard they got “Southern Snow” last year. After that, maybe some Hawaiian Snow ( “Blended Pina Collada?”) and I’ve even heard stories of Snow in Africa. Now THAT has got to be something!
Finally, an in depth study of this odd phenomenon of snow on the Mediterranean coast of France for about a year, with a comparision study of the snow in northern Italy and the Swiss Alps as a control for another year.
After that, a slow careful search for warm snow via a series of stops ending in the south of Greece; where after a “few years” writing up my results, I’ll present them to the U.N. and collect my followup grant money 😉
Isn’t that how this all works? It’s what I see all the other guys doing…
Mark.R (00:00:57) : We had snow down to 1000metres here in canterbury new zealand last night in mid summer.
You got a summer this year? I’m so jellous ! /sarcoff >
Unfortunately, ” I’ve got a bad feeling about this “…
We’re watching a turn in a system that moves incredibly slowly and we bounced off the top in 1998 / 1999. We’re now into it 10 years of acceleration and the sun is not holding up it’s end of the cyclical bargain…
Even if things DID start to decelerate, we’ve still got a bunch of years of “run from the top” built up. Somehow I think this is only the beginning…
E.M.Smith (01:40:21)
I want to sign up. Can I cover the ‘special’ kind of snow that survives even in very warm temperatures in Colombia. A few hundred thousand should do it….
As (anti)cyclones move they cool/heat one area, leaving their source areas to experience the opposite. GLOBAL temperaturesare a different matter. The warmist environment columnist in the UK D Telegraph has correctly shown a world map of temperature differences (undated, but recent). This shows that north of the current snow falls the arctic is much warmer than usual.
If that data is freely available then WUWT should show it.
Alarmists are always talking about the loss of albedo involved, if the ice in the Arctic Sea is less. But what about the increase in albedo when a winter like this one occurs? Even in cases where snow cover only lasts a few days, during those few days a huge amount of solar radiation must be reflected into outer space. Calculations, anyone?
Another factor came to my mind via Dr. James Hansen, of all people. At some point, when pressured to explain the current lack of warming, he stated a lot of the atmosphere’s “available” heat becomes “latent” heat, when water changes from the solid state to the liquid state. His point was that heat was being gobbled up by the melting ice caps, glaciers, and so forth.
The problem is, this same process works in reverse. When liquid water becomes solid water, a lot of “latent” energy is released and becomes “available.” (The same occurs when gaseous water becomes liquid.)
Therefore the creation of this huge snow-cover should have released a lot of heat to the earth’s energy budget. The creation of all the snow should have created a slight up-tick in world temperatures. I couldn’t see any. However I imagine a lot of the freezing occurred way up in the upper reaches of blizzards, where the heat was easily lost to outer space.
In any case, the snow is now laying about. To melt it, “available” energy will get sucked up, becoming “latent.” This should create a slight down-tick in world temperatures.
We’ll see.
More and more I am seeing temperatures, as measured by thermometers, are only a partial measure of the larger and more fascinating energy-budget of a wonderful planet.
Off topic but there’s no comment box in Tips & Notes…
From the Times about the Met Office:
Climate change experts clash over sea-rise ‘apocalypse’
Climate science faces a new controversy after the Met Office denounced research from the Copenhagen summit which suggested that global warming could raise sea levels by 6ft by 2100.
Link: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6982299.ece
Jason Lowe, a leading Met Office climate researcher, said: “These predictions of a rise in sea level potentially exceeding 6ft have got a huge amount of attention, but we think such a big rise by 2100 is actually incredibly unlikely. The mathematical approach used to calculate the rise is simplistic and unsatisfactory.”
E.M.Smith (01:50:43) :
But “it’s a warm snow!” … It must be.
You should also, for purposes of your study of course, visit England where often there is ‘a wrong kind of snow’, which is hardly surprising since occasionally there is even ‘ a wrong kind of rain’.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/4434770/Snow-Britain-Wrong-kind-of-snow-strikes-again.html
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article821624.ece
Hi,
two remarks:
1- it should be noted that the IPCC atually knows about and recognizes the increased snow precipitations in NH high latitudes
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-3-2-3.html
2- let’s take a look again at the figures for 2009. The snow cover has been well below mean during the spring and summer months. This is the time of the year where insulation is the longest and thus the albedo effect is the most important. Moreover, the cummulative anomaly is largely negative, meaning that, on average, 2009 was well below average in terms of snow cover.
SandyInDerby (01:03:37) :
Winter tyres are a bargain, if you consider the alternative. A lost no claims bonus is just the starter. The risks of death or injuries are much greater in snow.
Two Federal Himalaya WS2 205/50 R16 87H tyres for my automatic front wheel drive Volvo V70 T5 cost me only £92-80 and are mounted on two inexpensive steel wheels. Selecting “winter mode” enables me to drive around High Wycombe (well named) and permit speeds up to 130 mph, where applicable. http://www.mytyres.co.uk/
I’ll refit the Eagle F1 summer tyres in April. The Federals should be good for 3 seasons.
Yes but the snow is rotten.
E.M.Smith,
The warm snow hypothesis could catch on: Scientists discover that CO2 raises melting point of snow. Warmer world will lead to more snowy disasters.
From the Daily Mail (UK) part of the MSM.
If this is the start of a long cooling period then I don’t see how AGW can survive the onslaught of mother nature (and WUWT). :o)
[Reply: I wonder if anyone told Mark Serreze? RT – mod]
John O (00:40:32) :
I live in Eastern Oz. The last month and a half has been summer. Apparently. It’s been the coldest wettest summer I can remember.
I fear an ice age is just around the corner and that will be much more dangerous then a warmer world.
Hi John,
I live in Melbourne. 44C today. Enough to freeze your nads right off.
And seven weeks of frigid summer to go.
Solar system is like an old longcase ‘grandfather clock’. There is a fine tuned mechanism driving an oscillating pendulum of the solar activity, geomagnetism, oceans’ oscillations and climate. No man can do much about it, but observe, take note and hopefully try to comprehend its magnitude and majesty !
“ShaneOfMelbourne (03:22:48) :
Hi John,
I live in Melbourne. 44C today. Enough to freeze your nads right off.
And seven weeks of frigid summer to go.”
But that isn’t unusual for Victoria…in summer.
“ShaneOfMelbourne (03:22:48) :
John O (00:40:32) :
I live in Eastern Oz. The last month and a half has been summer. Apparently. It’s been the coldest wettest summer I can remember.
I fear an ice age is just around the corner and that will be much more dangerous then a warmer world.”
It has been cooler in Sydney and the inner west, one indicator are flies. There are none! Just like last year, the coolness has killed them off. We will get a warm day tomorrow, the weather South Australia and Victoria had, but here’s my prediction, it’ll be cooler than the forecast (Just like the last warm bit of weather a few weeks back) and then it’ll be back to cooler again.
Interesting. Iceskating on the canals in Amsterdam. Lots of AGW there.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6
…this data almost suggests that summers and winters are both becoming more extreme… thoughts?
This is the very type of thing in climate that causes the greatest pressures on agriculture. Untimely and extreme weather ruins yields.
And such times we have recorded in history and literature left as a warning signal to us. The warm times are the good and stable times, for the most part.
The cooling times are the worst of times and pose the greatest danger.
A lackadaisical sun, though it has happened before, is not a good sign, and it is neither here nor there that it doesn’t fit like a glove.
nevket240:
Things will not improve in Northern China, Korea and Japan for probably another week, it may improve, however, for a few days after the end of the current round cold spell.
Yet, this is NO mean that this is the end, currently long range forecast indicates the cold air mass shifting westward after this round of cold spell. Without modification of the sea, Southern China would become significantly colder. It should be notice that if moisture and convergence conditions are also favourable, than 2008-type of South China snowness is not out of question.
Well, going back to the IPCC predictions. This is what is said about Northern America, for example (AR4, 11.5.3):
“The ensemble mean of MMD models projects an increase in annual mean precipitation in the north reaching +20%, which is twice the inter-model spread, so likely significant; the projected increase reaches as much as +30% in winter.”
“In western regions, modest changes in annual mean precipitation are projected, but the majority of AOGCMs indicate an increase in winter and a decrease in summer. Models show greater consensus on winter increases (ensemble mean maximum of 15%) to the north and on summer decreases
(ensemble mean maximum of –20%) to the south.”
“The ensemble mean of the MMD models projects a general decrease in snow depth as a result of delayed autumn snowfall and earlier spring snowmelt. In some regions where winter precipitation is projected to increase, the increased snowfall can more than make up for the shorter snow season
and yield increased snow accumulation. Snow depth increases
are projected by some GCMs over some land around the Arctic
Ocean and by some RCMs in the northernmost part of the Northwest Territories. In principle a similar situation could arise at lower latitudes at high elevations in the Rocky Mountains, although most models project a
widespread decrease of snow depth there”
What do you think of this?
” TFN Johnson (02:10:06) :
This shows that north of the current snow falls the arctic is much warmer than usual.
If that data is freely available then WUWT should show it.”
Go to the top of this page and click on the little picture on the right that looks like a bell curve.
The picture that looks like a sine-curve goes to JAXA (maybe the best site for arctic ice-extent).
Rob Vermeulen (02:48:26) :
And the IPCC makes it up as they go along. Nobody is fooled by these hindsighters, they can’t and haven’t been able to predict thier way out of a paper bag for the last 10 years. And when they aren’t backpeddling they are busy altering thier reports and past data with their handy reality-erasing models hidden in ivory towers.
Anybody with thier eye on the world outside could see what was coming long before the last days of the late Northern Summer had gone. Many of us here at WUWT made that plain in those days.
Where was the IPCC then? Fiddling with thier latest excuses for denying the obvious.
When will you Britts learn that 95% of politicians and 100% of businesses are looking out for Number 1, themselves. Your MET office and CRU centers may as well be called businesses. Scientific objectivity left the building long, long ago. These politicians & businesses will spit upon and use the pubic like a dishtowel, and then they sell you for all they can get when they’ve finished wiping the floor. Green my rosy & ample rear end. Green technology & carbon trading is a scam through which politicians & their friends convince you to willingly let them reach into your wallets. Some of the same scientist/advocats were bemoaning the coming ice age in the 70’s. Now, they and their buddies are cashing in on warming at your expense. In 30 years or so, as the multi-decadal oscillation cycle cools us down and you’ve forgotten this abuse, the sons and daughters of these same charlatans will likely try to cash in on cooling alarmism once again. Remember Chicken Little? Your Mom tried to warn you about scams like this!
JER0ME (02:00:29)
I want to sign up. Can I cover the ’special’ kind of snow that survives even in very warm temperatures in Colombia. A few hundred thousand should do it….
Would that be the warm snow called “Spring Skiing”? If so, well, yes… but I have to be second author, especially on the “sauna snow” tests 😉
Vuk etc. (02:39:56) :
You should also, for purposes of your study of course, visit England where often there is ‘a wrong kind of snow’, which is hardly surprising since occasionally there is even ‘ a wrong kind of rain’.
Oh Dear! Would that be why you don’t have any ice in your Whiskey? It’s the wrong kind too? Well. Certainly there would have to be an investigation of “wrong snow”, otherwise I’d risk the headline: “wrong on wrong snow snow study wrongly found studying right snow only!” and that would be wrong…
Vincent (03:17:19) : The warm snow hypothesis could catch on: Scientists discover that CO2 raises melting point of snow. Warmer world will lead to more snowy disasters
Oh My! I can clearly see the need for some laboratory time to study the effect of added CO2 on snow… “The Fizzy Gin and Tonic Icee” and the “Fizzy Margareta” along with the “Rum and Coke Slurpy” all come to mind, (but I will need to deligate the “rum and coke slurpy” due to an unfotunate incident in undergraduate school that has left me unable to face rum and coke on the same day…) Though the “Carbonated Long Island Shaved Iced Tea” could require a great deal of study… especially in the French Polynesian Islands and / or the Bahamas. Well, clearly it will take more than my original grant estimate 😉
Perry (03:04:01)
Do you think if you hadn’t bought a 230 horsepower front wheel drive automatic you could have managed without the winter tyres?
>>Looks like the UK has a lot of snow. What does that do
>>to wind turbines? Blade unbalance, anyone?
The worst problem is ice-shedding, which can be quite dangerous. If you get rime ice or snow build up on the blades, which can happen as they are rotating, it can and will get flung off in very large lumps onto the ground below – perhaps 100m or more away from the turbine.
On prop aircraft, there is a hardened plate on the fuselage to stop the ice going into the cabin, and you can hear great lumps hitting it sometimes. With giant windelecs, I suggest a crash-helmet and body armour while walking anywhere close to one of these things.
.
260 horsepower(!) front wheel drive automatic, sorry.
RealClimate seem to be RealSilent at the moment.
“Perry (03:04:01) :
SandyInDerby (01:03:37) :
Winter tyres are a bargain, if you consider the alternative. A lost no claims bonus is just the starter. The risks of death or injuries are much greater in snow.”
Only if you do not know how to drive. In about 1994, the UK, I recall a small snow furry on the M4 between Newbury and Swindon. I had to laugh as I drove past th enumber of people struggling in the inch or so of snow. What was even more hilarious was the number of tracks off the motorway. It seemed some people were trying to create their own exit ramps, in to farmers fields.
Snow is not a problem, and in fact can assist in stopping believe it or not. Ice is nore of a problem, in particular black ice.
@ Kevin Kilty (19:17:03) :
Something I have noticed this winter season is the seesaw of statistics–Cold, snowy October followed by fair November, then a rough December. So on this basis, maybe January will moderate some, then look-out for spring.
=================================
If I remember right, the winter of 77/78 started out the same way: cold October, warm November, and then a brutal winter that didn’t end till May.
Bulldust (20:57:40) :
Bulldust, Douglas DC also noticed that that is a Citroen 2CV – Deux Chevaux. Once considered one of the ugliest mass produced cars every (the Pontiac Aztek owns that now). A Smart car will leave it in the dust. Lots of pictures of them on the web. I think they even had one in a Bond movie for a chase scene. It needs a downhill, in a hurricane, to keep up on the US Interstates.
It really looks like nature is trying her best to hide it in the initial pic.
TAMPA BAY WEATHER ALERT
I’ve subscribe to their weather alerts, and I’ve been getting from 1 to 4 of these a day for more than a week, each worse than the last:
_____________________________________________________________
Nigel S (04:09:33) :
You’re joking, Right?
Oh, I almost forgot, we had sleet early Sat., moring here near Tampa, Fl, which I saw with my own eyes. No accumulation, but it lasted for at least 1/2 an hour. (Some reported snow, but I’m skeptical) .
ShaneOfMelbourne (03:22:48)
Yeah, right, Shane. I was born and raised in Melbourne and have just returned to KL after 3 weeks down there.
One day 44 (actually 40), next day 20.
Long term Jan average is still 26. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.
Layne Blanchard (22:38:23) :
The warmers seem to think we’ve had a couple sunspots, so now we’ll warm up.
The warmers say the sun doesn’t control climate. So now some say it does?
How do you deal with a problem like a warmer? I just let Mother Nature do it as they look out the window.
nevket240 (23:05:51) :
as Marie-Antoinette Gore would say, if they can’t have fish, let them eat cake…..
Or, if they can’t eat rice let them eat mud. Rice is for the biofuels.
Relief can’t come too soon for Florida and the Deep South:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,582738,00.html?test=latestnews
Many are already getting wiped out of thier tropical businesses.
How quickly did the weather revert back to the 70’s mode with only 2 years of a quiet sun?
It’s not just businesses feeling the bite of the cold, AGW is also getting wiped out…albeit too late for the hapless. I feel for the people who are losing thier shirts. Not so for the Warmists.
In this age of advanced technology, this general unpreparedness did not have to happen. The long-range forecasts were gaffed by untested hypothesis stemming from hijacked science.
What an awful state of affairs.
Shouldn’t be any wonder.
The Arctic Oscillation is practically off the chart!
http://klimazwiebel.blogspot.com/2010/01/cold-snap.html
anthony your tips page is at 3,000 and I cannot add to it:-)
now relating to the above I am worried. I was trying to scan and send to anthony a page or two from an old book, Called
The SIXTH WINTER. Douglas Orgill & john Gribbin.
1979 bodley head is my copy
isbn0-370-30221-4
now what got me perturbed Before! I logged into this item is the mention that this book makes of Blocking cold etc exactly as is happening now.
they state that the science is as correct as 1972 could make it, and damn if a few hairs didn,t stand up on my neck!
It is almost telling the tale of whats now happening.
Pages 21 and 22 sum it up.
If the N.H. gets a mild summer and doesnt thaw much, well another colder winter will follow.
they surmise, that that happening for 6 years is enough to start a new minimum..and with the sun being sleepy ..well it’s a worry indeed I think.
we have had 2 now.
any volcanos going boom would hasten it too?
I scanned the pages but dont know how to get it to anyone to look at.it saved as a jpeg. I would love other more knowledgeable people to see and comment on it.
It will not break the january record because de forecast for britain and western europa are Rain on the coastal area’s. But The recent snowfall in spain could just break it before that happens. So in the europe point of view I will give it a 50% chance.
On front page at Drudge, middle column:
Global cooling may set in for 20-30 years!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html
This from IceAgeNow:
“México is a Gigantic Refrigerator”
photon without a Higgs (04:50:15) :
“. . . How do you deal with a problem like a warmer? I just let Mother Nature do it as they look out the window.”
It doesn’t do any good, hnu sans higgs:
http://blogs.ajc.com/cynthia-tucker/2010/01/08/despite-severe-cold-the-planet-is-still-warming/?cxntfid=blogs_cynthia_tucker
“….Good evening, and welcome, to another episode of ‘Twilight Zone’.
rbateman (04:55:05) :
How quickly did the weather revert back to the 70’s mode with only 2 years of a quiet sun?
No, no, the earth is warming. Look at GISS. And don’t dare say anything negative about James Hansen! He works at NASA. How could GISS be wrong!
😉
Mark.R (00:00:57) :
We had snow down to 1000metres here in canterbury new zealand last night in mid summer.
Ahhh, come on, that’s what happens with global warming. Get ready for some skiing!
Here comes the next guilt trip/fear mongering. This continues the agenda of the Wildlands Project – http://discerningtoday.org/wildlands_map_of_us.htm , and http://www.twp.org/cms/index.cfm?group_id=1000
Partial excerpt:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8449506.stm
“The UN launches the International Year of Biodiversity on Monday, warning that the ongoing loss of species affects human well-being around the world.
Eight years ago, governments pledged to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, but the pledge will not be met.
The expansion of human cities, farming and infrastructure is the main reason.
Dignitaries including German premier Angela Merkel will speak at the launch in Berlin, with a video message from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
Mr Ban is due to say that human expansion is wiping out species at about 1,000 times the “natural” or “background” rate, and that “business as usual is not an option”.
World ‘to fail’ on nature target
The Secretary-General is expected to argue that the failure to protect biodiversity “should be a wake-up call”, leading to effective ways of protecting forests, watersheds, coral reefs and other ecosystems.
The UN says that as natural systems such as forests and wetlands disappear, humanity loses the services they currently provide for free, such as the purification of air and water, protection from extreme weather events and the provision of materials for shelter and fire.
The rate of species loss leads some biologists to say that we are in the middle of the Earth’s sixth great extinction, the previous five stemming from natural events such as asteroid impacts. “
rbateman: and what do you think of my post on the AR4?
Nigel S (00:50:10) :
Larry (00:01:26)
No but I have got Norwegian socks.
The video link:
http://videos.snowchains.co.uk/videos/weisssock.html
You can copy and paste the link from the top of the video window.
More nonsense from the BBC
This methane seepage must have occured on Earth in previous warm periods and we are still here. It’ll be interesting to see what happens this spring and summer.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8437703.stm
What you deniers don’t seem to realize is this is all new snow and not old snow. You should also realize is much of the NH snow is the result of increased evaporation or something. Laugh now, but wait and see; January 2010 will be the 2nd hottest January since King Wenseclas chugged dark ale. And 2010 will be the hottest year since Alexander the Great invaded Costa Rica. Look it up. I’m sure it’s posted on RC somewhere. Idiots!
E.M.Smith (01:40:21) :
But “it’s a warm snow!”
Florida and Alabama got them some of that warm snow.
[Reply: I wonder if anyone told Mark Serreze? RT – mod]
His predictions are in a death spiral.
“George Ellis (04:38:06) :
Bulldust (20:57:40) :
Bulldust, Douglas DC also noticed that that is a Citroen 2CV – Deux Chevaux. Once considered one of the ugliest mass produced cars ever (the Pontiac Aztek owns that now). A Smart car will leave it in the dust. Lots of pictures of them on the web. I think they even had one in a Bond movie for a chase scene. It needs a downhill, in a hurricane, to keep up on the US Interstates.
It really looks like nature is trying her best to hide it in the initial pic.”
The original “Citroen 2CV” concept had very different design parameters to the Smart car. The Smart car would fail those parameters.
rbateman (03:39:59) :
…this data almost suggests that summers and winters are both becoming more extreme… thoughts?
I didn’t see any extreme heat last summer. It seemed like summer was over before it ever even began.
TFN Johnson (02:10:06) :
I take it you are referring to the map shown by G.Lean in Saturday’s Telegraph. Please bear in mind that the map projection used gives undue prominence to the arctic and antarctic areas – you need to appreciate that all that brightly coloured warm at the top is only a small area compared with the rest.
Typical of the spin techniques adopted by warmists to alarm the man in the street.
Apart from which, as it was undated and unattibuted it is totally meaningless in any context.
Jimbo (05:16:39) :
“It’ll be interesting to see what happens this spring and summer.”
That is, if we even have a Spring or Summer this year.
MB (04:21:35) :
RealClimate seem to be RealSilent at the moment.
At the moment? At many moments.
Are they hiding the decline? Can they proxy their way out of it?
Strangely, I don’t remember the WUWT headlines reporting “July 2009: second least snowiest July on record in the Northern Hemisphere” which followed June 2009, which was the second least snowiest June on record in the NH.
Gribben was one of the authors of “The Jupiter Effect” that predicted that California would be torn apart by earthquakes when the the planets aligned on the other side of the sun around 1982. Approach with extreme caution!
jlc (04:44:37) :
Long term Jan average is still 26. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.
Is there water at the bottom of the ocean? And do you ask yourself, “Well, how did I get here”? Just remove the water, just carry the water from the bottom of the ocean.
jeroen (04:58:21) :
But The recent snowfall in spain…
The snow in Spain falls mainly on…. (add your own)
yonason (05:04:31) :
Thanks for the link. I burst out laughing! She actually said it!
pat (21:05:43) :
anthony,
just found your thread on the michael mann interview. been watching too much tennis and must have missed it.
REPLY: You can’t take your eyes off WUWT for more than a few seconds or you’ll miss something. – A
Oh yeah, how true is that.
Patrick Davis (05:23:42) :
The original “Citroen 2CV” concept had very different design parameters to the Smart car. The Smart car would fail those parameters.
Eh alors! Il marche bien le deux chevaux. C’est le meilleur pour portez les peasants tous les temps! Construire avec les boites de sardine, avec un moteur gagne pendent le grand guerre deuxieme d’un motobicyclette Allemande.
photon without a Higgs (05:21:12) :
[Reply: I wonder if anyone told Mark Serreze? RT – mod]
His predictions are in a death spiral.
Sounds painful. Does it make him speak with a squeaky voice?
fresh PP post..
hmm,
http://www.prisonplanet.com/al-gore-answers-his-critics.html
Oh look kids and grandkids, you’re not going to be able to survive global warming! Things like this are going to happen: 100,000 tropical fish dead from global warming.
About 100,000 tropical fish being raised on a fish farm in South Florida couldn’t bear the cold temperatures Sunday….estimated he lost $535,000 in business because of the cold
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/florida/AP/story/1418168.html
The world is getting so warm that soon the only inhabitable place will be the South Pole. Humankind will only survive because of a few ‘breeding couples’ there.
tallbloke (05:52:03) :
Sounds painful. Does it make him speak with a squeaky voice?
I suppose if the cold is affecting certain anatomy that could happen.
Patrick Davis (05:23:42)
Agree, the 2CV was a brilliant solution to its (60 year old) design brief, also the drivers are often far from ugly as you can see.
I have seen one with a pull start (2CV, not driver) using a handle on the dashboard which looked like a recycled parachute rip cord handle, pure French engineering genius and great fun to drive.
Seville in Spain gets its first snow in 50 years!
photon without a Higgs (05:40:34) :
“yonason (05:04:31) :
Thanks for the link. I burst out laughing! She actually said it!”
Did you happen to notice, she’s also a “Pulitzer Prize” winner.
“Political commentary from Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Cynthia Tucker of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.”
Must be giving them thar “Pullet Surprise”things out in cracker jacks boxes now, along with the Nobels.
(Heh, and that video is all about a hen-rustling critter that looks like Pachauri. How apropos!)
Very strange wheather. -30 degrees C in southern parts of Norway. +8 degrees C in Northern part.
The reason of course is the High pressure over southern parts is rotating clockwise, bringing Golf Stream air in over northern part.
“tallbloke (05:49:34) :
Patrick Davis (05:23:42) :
The original “Citroen 2CV” concept had very different design parameters to the Smart car. The Smart car would fail those parameters.
Eh alors! Il marche bien le deux chevaux. C’est le meilleur pour portez les peasants tous les temps! Construire avec les boites de sardine, avec un moteur gagne pendent le grand guerre deuxieme d’un motobicyclette Allemande.”
Indeed, peasants and chook eggs over ploughed fields, unbroken, to boot. Very light, stuff can be pulled off if, very complaiant, long travel, suspension, thin wheels and tyres. Not sure a Smart car can do all that. Ok so the Smart car is made from recycled plastic, which betters the 2CV’s recycled marzipan.
Oh Boy, Ms Tucker took a pasting.
http://blogs.ajc.com/cynthia-tucker/2010/01/08/despite-severe-cold-the-planet-is-still-warming/?cxntfid=blogs_cynthia_tucker
UPDATE: yesteday my sister, living in down town Berkhamstead, broke her wrist thanks to the 18 inches of global warming they have there. Silly cow.Should have hybernated till June.
Ian
Canberra
40C
rob m (19:41:01) :
Isn’t there an increase of precipitation when CO2 rises? (ie. Global Warming)
One doesn’t necessarily follow from the other.
That is, rise in CO2 does not necessarily imply global warming.
The very modest increase in global temperature predicted for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is about one degree Celsius. This extra energy is available to evaporate more water. But think about the evaporation cycle. When water evaporates it takes latent heat from the surface which results in a cooling of that surface. The water vapor raises to the cloud tops where it condenses out to form clouds. Condensing water vapor releases latent energy which now being above most of the atmosphere (and above almost all of the water vapor which is the dominate greenhouse gas) is largely radiated back out into space as outgoing longwave radiation (OLR).
The AGW crowd would have you believe that the atmosphere retains that moisture, that is that the relative humidity will stay constant instead of raining out to keep the global greenhouse factor constant as required by the energy minimum principle. What warrant do they have to make that claim?
We have no where near doubled the amount of CO2 in our atmosphere. The natural variability in year-to-year rain/snow patterns is so great that it would be next to impossible to isolate any increase in participation due to increased CO2 out of the data. But, then again, I haven’t tried to do so either.
Mike Ramsey
@Ralph (04:17:41) :
>>Looks like the UK has a lot of snow. What does that do
>>to wind turbines? Blade unbalance, anyone?
“The worst problem is ice-shedding, which can be quite dangerous. If you get rime ice or snow build up on the blades, which can happen as they are rotating, it can and will get flung off in very large lumps onto the ground below – perhaps 100m or more away from the turbine.”
There may be a worse problem. Especially if you don’t live near them (But still have to pay for them, naturally!).
That is the fact that the birdshredders often don’t work when you need them most. No wind!
So far during this cold snap the electricity generated by the 2,300 UK wind turbines has amounted to less than 0.5% of the total energy needs. Coal fired stations are having to go at full capacity to keep the lights on. And thanks to the EU Large Combustion Plant Directive, that means they will have to be decommissioned sooner than the nominal 2015 cut off date.
Exactly the same thing happened during the January 2009 freeze up.
And the Government’s response?
http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/news/pn10_004/pn10_004.aspx
Why, only another £100 Billion!
And interestingly, guess where all the extra “Green Jobs” claimed might me:-
http://www.thelocal.de/sci-tech/20100109-24461.html
Quite ironic that one of the items on my science department agenda is LowCarbonDay 🙂 Encouraging all schools and school children to reduce their carbon footprint. Thats ok if it is aimed at reducing pollution, but it is yet another fear factor device. It si all about Global Warming and Clmiate Change…. On the days when most state schools are snowed in and not open!! Who says God does not have an ironic sense of humour? Looks like an opportunity for me to dispay lots of graphs from wattsupwiththat.com 🙂
I found it interesting that in the last week with this cold weather throughout the northern hemisphere, the concept of natural variability was discovered. So what is natural variability? It is so simple that even a 68 year old fart with a spreadsheet can do it. All you have to know is the equation of a straight line, how to use the SLOPE, INTERCEPT & STDEV functions and how to plot the data in Microsoft Excel. I go into details on how to do it on my web site:
http://www.socratesparadox.com.
Now that natural variability is out in the open, it is interesting to note that all of the years, from 1880 to 2008 fall within plus or minus 3 standard deviations. The plus or minus 3 standard deviations is frequently used to define the limits of natural variability. In a normal distribution, 1 out of 370 data points would fall outside these bounds. By contrast, the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) quality control procedure simply flags data points with a variance greater than 3 standard deviations and rejects those greater than 5 standard deviations. That would mean only 1 out of 1 million data points would be rejected. Their procedure is defined at:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-monthly/images/ghcn_temp_qc.pdf
Mike Ramsey (06:35:23) :
Also, those clouds increase the albedo. Instead of reaching the earth to warm it, an increased fraction of sunlight is reflected back out to space, thereby further cooling the earth.
manfredkintop (21:12:45) :
Clive (20:46:42)
Next, we’ll be told that Chinooks are a result of AGW!!! Loving this warm ‘weather’ now!
Some one let the kids that struggled in physics class like Joe Romm know that the snow will melt from south winds and sunshine. It is not CO2 that will melt the snow. The laws of physics have not changed from the blizzards in the early part of the century.
Ask a global warming apologist how blizzards were caused 100 years ago. Then what changed?
Oh, that damaging snow! I like this post by Maurizio Morabito:
http://omniclimate.wordpress.com/2009/12/24/be-good-at-christmas-help-save-the-agwer
Be Good At Christmas – Help Save The AGWer.
If the consensus disappears then it will be game over for the AGWer.
Act now. Adopt now. Adopt an AGWer. With your continual support we can do more to help the AGWer in its struggle for survival.
ADOPT your AGWer HERE
Order now.
Et cetera…
Martin Brumby (06:47:51) :
“And interestingly, guess where all the extra “Green Jobs” claimed might [be]:-
http://www.thelocal.de/sci-tech/20100109-24461.html “
The article says, “Dogger Bank will cover 8,600 square kilometres of the North Sea…”
That wouldn’t be the “Artful Dogger” Bank. would it? “Hey, govner, wanna buy a windfarm? Maybe a slightly used bridge over the udson rivah?”
Ref- Frank (19:34:45) :
“What are the predicted effects of AGW? Is it colder and more snow? Or warmer and wetter? Hmm…”
___________
Absolutely!
Ref- Michael Jankowski (19:38:29) :
“Can’t wait for the “extreme weather events are consistent with the theory of anthropogenic global warming” statement.”
____________
They’ve included your comment in today’s press release.
Ref- rob m (19:41:01) :
“Isn’t there an increase of precipitation when CO2 rises? (ie. Global Warming)”
____________
Yes! You’re 150% correctamundo!
Isn’t it wonderful how AGW explains everything? Who needs proof? They say, “The devil is in the details” so they’ve done away with all the silly details. This is revolution without friction. This is “science” at it’s finest hour. Never have so many owed so much to so few. Never have so many been so dupped by so few. Humans have got to be the dumbest species on the planet. No wonder we’re here by ourselves in this issolated part of the universe. Someone must have known this day would come. Look what happened when there were just two of us in a garden of edan, sure enough, we blew it right from the getgo. If you think the 21st Century is going to be more peaceful than the 20th, you’re not paying attention folks.
yonason (07:12:42) :
Mike Ramsey (06:35:23) :
Also, those clouds increase the albedo. Instead of reaching the earth to warm it, an increased fraction of sunlight is reflected back out to space, thereby further cooling the earth.
Yes, you are correct. This is the negative feedback mechanism that Dr. Spencer has been working to elucidate.
One other thought for the AGW crowd; if the relative humidity stays constant as the temperature goes up, what is keeping it from being 100% over the oceans in the tropics right now. 🙂
Mike Ramsey
David Rose has an excellent long article in the UK Daily Mail.
“The mini Ice Age Starts Here”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html#
Does not “talk down” to his readers and goes into some technical details in depth.
The work of Prof Latif and the other scientists refutes that view.
On the one hand, it is true that the current freeze is the product of the ‘Arctic oscillation’ – a weather pattern that sees the development of huge ‘blocking’ areas of high pressure in northern latitudes, driving polar winds far to the south.
Meteorologists say that this is at its strongest for at least 60 years.
As a result, the jetstream – the high-altitude wind that circles the globe from west to east and normally pushes a series of wet but mild Atlantic lows across Britain – is currently running not over the English Channel but the Strait of Gibraltar.”
The Daily Mail claims that it has the second largest UK readership with 8.5 million adults per week.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html##ixzz0cJl40aOC
yonason (06:13:36) :
Cynthia Tucker of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Atlanta was covered in ice for days. Her viewpoint may not be selling well.
For readers outside the USA, Atlanta is in the deep south where cities don’t get ice covered for days.
The original “Citroen 2CV” concept had very different design parameters to the Smart car. The Smart car would fail those parameters.
Exactly, every today car would fail those parameters. Every part of the 2CV is thus constructed that it is as simple as possible, yet giving maximal functionality. The result is that it can be maintained by every handy person forever. Only a good rust treatment is needed after factory. The concept gives the most economic ride with the fewest use of resources but would turn manufacturers bankrupt in the end. Happily for them most of us are addicted to status.
“Climategate” notwithstanding,”;
“”Even if we’re warming, it doesn’t cancel the cold.”
“the planet continues to toast subtly”.
AGW: Gore Al’s Weather, aka Al Gore’s Weather.
…-
“This is global warming?
As teeth chatter, experts say, it’s exceptions proving the rule.”
“So what happened to global warming?
“Climategate” notwithstanding, the data suggest that the planet continues to toast subtly – but on the order of tenths of degrees, hardly enough to snuff out winter as we know it, said Gadomski. “No human being on earth experiences the global average temperature,” he said. “Even if we’re warming, it doesn’t cancel the cold.”
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/health_science/daily/20100110_This_is_global_warming_.html
OT I know but http://www.authonomy.com a very good website for aspiring authors backed by Harper Collins, is looking for short stories and fairytales, about global warming in conjunction with Act On Co2. To inspire people, they have the infamous global warming add from the UK.
All entries will be readable on Authonomy.
Could I suggest that GP Polar Bear goes to Washington is posted,
Submit here http://ad-emea.doubleclick.net/clk;220263951;43795207;g
View some of the entries here
http://www.authonomy.com/ReadBook.aspx?bookid=14926&chapterid=148297#chapter
40 Shades
Wow! Looks like a new Ice Age!. See, those little pebbles falling from the sky, those “cosmic rays”, which BTW still at high levels:
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startdate=1964/12/11&starttime=00:00&enddate=2010/01/11&endtime=19:12&resolution=Automatic choice&picture=on
As being healthy and young proton males like to couple (as nature commands, in no way those self sex marriages being made at CERN) with beautiful electro femaless out there, to make up H-OH (clouds) which will make for mostly covered skies during next autumn and summer over most places..(wherever weather allows it).
Mike Ramsey,
You might also be interested in Wentz’s paper in Science. there was a significant increase in precipitation observed with the warming, presumably including snow. However none of the AR4 models reproduced more than half of this increase in negative feedback. Additionally, there was an earlier spring snow melt associated with the warming, especially in the 90s. Andreas Roesch reported that this positive surface albedo feedback was under represented in all the AR4 models. Perhaps the models were able to “match” the 20th century climate without heat from the under representing of the increased spring snow melt, by using heat from under representing of the precipitation increase. No wonder the IPCC WG1 authors were so confident in their model projections. It is nifty in nonlinear dynamic simulations when correlated errors can still cancel out. Hmmm, but in their simulations of “future” CO2 scenerios the models catch up with the spring snow melts adding extra heat to the systems, is precipitation going to catch up to? Perhaps the model CO2 doubling sensitivities are a bit exaggerated?
photon without a Higgs (05:40:34) :
Here’s another one for the loony bin.
http://hotairpundit.blogspot.com/2010/01/robert-gibbs-worldwide-record-cold-is.html
These people are either pathological liars, or the biggest #$%& fools on the planet. And the scariest part is they are in positions of either power or influence. I’m not sure which is worse, the weather or the politicians and the reporters who love them. (talk about a run away feedback loop.)
photon without a Higgs (07:36:31) :
“… Her viewpoint may not be selling well.”
Let’s hope it isn’t.
typo: springtime instead of autumn
Anthony, I tried to leave this at “Tips and Notes” but the comment box was not available.
David Stockwell has a post this morning which I am sure you will find interesting: http://landshape.org/enm/ramstorf-reamed/#more-3447
He is refering to this article in the Australian: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/sea-level-theory-cuts-no-ice/story-e6frg6so-1225817853987
Mann O Mann (23:25:38) :
People are skating on the canals in Amsterdam.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8451006.stm
Fairly rare.
An “Elfstedentocht” (skating along the 11 cities in the Friesland province of the Netherlands) would certainly affect public opinion over here. the last one was in 1996. Alas there is way too much snow on the ice at the moment hampering the ice growth. The Elfstedentocht also has a nice correlation with the solar cycle, especially in recent years:
http://www.dearend.nl/WeatherLink/nieuws/2004/elfstedentocht_zonnevlekken/elfstedentocht.html
Nothing unordinary for 1998/99 el nino… 2nd warmest. If warmer weather causes snow, as the talking heads oft point out, the data doesn’t quite show it.
Has anyone been paying attention to the GFS 10 day model?
Jan 19-20-21 and beyond are looking pretty hairy for the Southern California and the US Southwest. The potential exists for Arctic air to get entrained at all levels and then taken over the Pacific and then into Southern California. The plots show flow aligned from the surface all the way up to 300 mb with large amounts of moisture. The plots are showing surface gales of 100 mph over the Pacific just off the California coast with onshore vectors around 70 mph from Big Sur all the way down to much of Baja. Day 10 shows a very, very strong upper disturbance still out in the Pacific as cold air is being drawn in from Siberia.
Very unusual to say the least.
Some people are making this site a chat room.Maybe there should be a limit on the number of entries on a given topic for some folks.Maybe some of us should not be allowed to post.
[We don’t censor comments like the alarmist blogs do. But feel free to comment all you like. Most readers enjoy seeing other points of view. ~dbs,mod.]
According to NASA data,
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42260
the freeze is regional, does not indicate global cooling.
Greenland and the Arctic are warmer than usual. The cold and snow has moved from the Arctic to lower latitudes. The Arctic and Greenland will be more vulnerable during the summer for melting and getting the sea level to rise.
I would not be so fast to debunk that the climate is changing.
Now available at: http://bigjournalism.com/pcourrielche/2010/01/10/peer-to-peer-review-part-ii-how-climategate-marks-the-maturing-of-a-new-science-movement/
Peer-to-Peer Review (Part II): How ‘Climategate’ Marks the Maturing of a New Science Movement
Looks like all schools in Uk will get involved in this…http://www.lowcarbonday.com/ one of their links is to a web page “rebutting” skeptic arguments.. some of the comments are breathtaking in their comments 56 struck me! and no mention of climategate except to say some of the comments in the emails were unfortunate.. and then blather on and on about peer review! It would be nice if there were a succinct page like this givihng the skeptic viewpoint in neat catchy phrases. Without knowledge of the argument what child will not believe all this?
yonason (04:38:20) : re: TAMPA BAY WEATHER ALERT
I am in Venice (70 miles south) about 1 mile inland from the Gulf. This morning the temp was at 26F. This is the lowest I have personally experienced in the 19+ years I have lived here. All banana tree leaves are dead (I hope the plants will recover as they did last year), my coconut palm may not make it, won’t know til a week or so, even the periwinkles all died again. Frost on everything that wasn’t covered. Only cold hardy plants survived.
Will someone please try to convince me why we need to cool the planet.
Magnus A (07:16:58) : It will take time for those green jobs to appear. These indeed will be created to remove those windmills after they prove to be a total fiasco.
NOAA reports that December 2009 for the contiguous US was the 14th coolest December in the last 115 years.
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/in-depth/ask/julia-slingo.pdf
a link to the current UK Met Office {propaganda} website where Prof Julia Slingo “answers” those important AGW questions. Not.
Since we all know that the AO is negative, I looked at the AAO and it is also negative. (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml).
Anybody done in studies on how AO and AAO interact with each other?
This whole, hot-cold, warming business creates a picture of a future world where The-Keeper-of-the-Pan stands gravely before a huge pot, alternately feeding huge logs to the fire below and dumping great chunks of ice into the pot from above.
And there he stands — forever.
We are! Environment Canada has listed this as “* unusual”
Everyone who lives in Southern Alberta knows that Chinooks are not in any way “unusual”. They’re freaking awesome! Some of my earliest childhood memories involve Chinooks. When it goes from -30C to +10 in 2 hours, how can that possibly be anything other than awesome?
When I were a lad, 1940s to mid 1950s, on a cloud covered sky in winter, if the temp was below about 25F, the oldtimers would say, “too cold to snow,” and they were always right (with good, unknown to them, chemistry and thermodynamic reasons). In the last couple of weeks, I noted that snow was falling at temps below 10F. Unusual to say the least in my 74 years.
crosspatch@23.23.56
‘The whole notion of AGW being used to manage government spending relies on the ability to “manage” public opinion and with the Internet, there is no longer any guarantee that the traditional information outlets will be able to manage that opinion’
That is why it is imperative we have to keep meddling government hands off the internet – no matter what the excuse to do so is: i.e porn, terrorism, our own protection, etc.
The climate is changing and always will be.
What is important to note is that the climate is not behaving in the way that the climate models predicted.
OT kind of… Dec offically coldest month in 115 years
The average temperature in December 2009 was 30.2 F. This was -3.2 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average, the 14th coolest December in 115 years. The temperature trend for the period of record (1895 to present) is 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit per decade.
2.88 inches of precipitation fell in December. This was 0.65 inches more than the 1901-2000 average, the 11th wettest such month on record. The precipitation trend for the period of record (1895 to present) is 0.02 inches per decade.
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html
mistyped the OT headline and hit enter to quick, sorry, havent had my first cup of coffee yet.
The Times restaurant columnist explains why this all makes sense:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/giles_coren/article6981487.ece
Anthony I was trying to post to your hints and tips but couldn’t work out how. Anyway, I was directed to look at Dominic Lawson’s piece in the Times which describes how the UK Met Office calculates average temperature for the winter by taking the highest 15 readings for November (which is not in the winter but in the autumn, according to their web site). So this winter in the UK is already going to be classified as the warmest on record.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/dominic_lawson/article6982310.ece
Can this POSSIBLY be true???
Totally OT, and if mentioned above, Moderator can snip with my blessings. But I can’t believe what this paragraph says. From http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/dominic_lawson/article6982310.ece
“A period of humility and even silence would be particularly welcome from the Met Office, our leading institutional advocate of the perils of man-made global warming, which had promised a “barbecue summer” in 2009 and one of the “warmest winters on record”. In fact, the Met still asserts we are in the midst of an unusually warm winter — as one of its staffers sniffily protested in an internet posting to a newspaper last week: “This will be the warmest winter in living memory, the data has already been recorded. For your information, we take the highest 15 readings between November and March and then produce an average. As November was a very seasonally warm month, then all the data will come from those readings.”
Can the last three sentences possibly be true, or is the columnist merely being sarcastic?
OOPS – Veronica beat me to the punch – but I am curious.
Veronica. No, it isn’t true, it was a warmist winding people up. He (a guy called Tony) doesn’t work for the Met Office. Please dismantle this myth whenever you see it posted. He must be really laughing as his tiny contribution on a newspaper thread has been all around the world in the past three weeks.
Larryoldtimer. Me too! My mum always used to say “Too cold to snow”. And she was always right.
LarryOldtimer (09:13:44) :
I noted that snow was falling at temps below 10F. Unusual to say the least in my 74 years
Read the post above: JonesII (07:45:39) (from an oldtimer too, but replace “autumn” by “springtime”…the german Dr. you know…)
The mini-ice age is started?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html
Note: The Tips & Notes page is FULL… will need to be cleaned I think.
Unbelievable………….
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/
The Met Office would like to point out that our postcasts are 100% on the money 100% of the time. That is an area where we shine and it should get more publicity.
PhilW (10:04:31) :
Unbelievable………….
Direct link
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/01/pachauri-money-laundering.html
Anyone else spot that there’s a ‘snow covered’ tile on that map… in AFRICA? Now that’s pretty damned freakish.
And thanks to the EU Large Combustion Plant Directive, that means they will have to be decommissioned sooner than the nominal 2015 cut off date.
I think I would be investing in backup generation.
Seriously, what are they gonna do for power?
Veronica (09:33:09) :
I used Met office numbers for December, and looked at November (it was warm in UK) they appear to be ok.
Here are numbers for CET 12 months :
2009 3.0 4.1 7.0 10.0 12.1 14.8 16.1 16.6 14.2 11.6 8.7 3.1
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-Dec.gif
The article has some ‘ambiguous’ statements.
Interesting article in the Daily Mail recently. My apologies if someone else has already linked to this http://bit.ly/6U9bBV. I scanned it quite quickly, but it looked to be a pretty well written article and made a point to say that this research was done by well respected scientists. Not sure if they were taking a dig a the skeptics / deniers with that comment as I read through pretty quickly. Maybe someone from the UK can lend a better idea of the usual tone of the Mail for those of us in the US.
Regards,
Charlie K
Sound and Fury (10:15:16) :
“Anyone else spot that there’s a ’snow covered’ tile on that map… in AFRICA? Now that’s pretty damned freakish.”
Snow is not that unusual in High Atlas mountain of Morocco.
All we want is for our normal 70 degree weather to come back in Florida.
I was shocked to see on the weather channel show the snow cover for the northern hemisphere, and talk about the cold weather and where it was lcoated — Then I realize all along if they wanted to they could have shown with a few mouse clicks what the arctic ocean ice cover was, and put the lies that Al Gore and others tell out to pasture.
But yes, I think January will set new snow and cover records. It’s snowing in Florida after-all.
JonesII (08:47:29). You’re right, but before we remove them Obama will, like Spain did — now with 20 % unemployment — build more turbines and spend 2.3 billion dollars on 17 000 green jobs; 135 000 dollars per job:
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2010/01/08/135295-per-job-obama-announces-2-3-billion-to-create-17k-green-jobs
Britains successful windpower program for 100 billion pund described here, by leftist Guardian who now don’t believe in Gordon Brown :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/10/wind-energy-power-electricity
Britans energy during this cold weather: 45 % coal, 37 % gas, 15 % nuclear, and 0.2 % wind power. (Variability makes wind power a regolatory problem.)
Sure, weather is not climate, but climate is being upstaged by weather.
Computer models say future generations might suffer higher temperature. This pile of snow says I can’t get to work today.
That’s the funny little secret about weather; it’s real.
Was reading up on MJO effects on winter North American precipitation patterns and found this gem:
“There is strong evidence for a linkage between weather and climate […]” – Wikipedia
Didn’t someone suggest wiki has been hijacked by alarmists? Seems so.
As a dedicated X-C skier I am having a wonderful winter. Snow conditions are fabulous here in Michigan. And to think that several years ago, when I still believed in that global warming nonsense I was worried that my skiing days might come to an end!
Charlie K,
Daily Mail is a conservative newspaper that seems to have taken a sceptical position on AGW but is not quite as sceptical as the Daily Express. The article describes possible cooling due to natural cycles, but this idea was floated a while ago and is not opposed by the AGW crowd. Indeed, they warn of warming to return later with a vengence.
Walter Cronanty (09:49:49) :I’ve read the article you linked. How do you explain such a stubbornness in non accepting reality by AGW’ers? , Have they received a lot of money to act like that? How is it explainable?. You are suffering the consequences of an obvious punishable and prosecutable behaviour.
On a related subject…. Fox News just posted this story.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/01/11/years-global-cooling-coming-say-leading-scientists/
“PhilW (10:04:31) :
Unbelievable………….
Direct link
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/01/pachauri-money-laundering.html
”
Stunning – this reminds of the good old days of jounalism. Old Washington Post/Sunday Times type stuff. What journalists should actually be doing. Credit to Richard North.
cheers David
I live in southern Sweden this winter is exceptional, usually you could count at most 2 or at most 3 weeks of some wet snow and cold but not this cold below zero C for any prolonged time.
This year they even clear of snow on ponds in the parks so people can skate. However not much snow, but freaking cold.
Must have been best ever sales of skates, ski, kids sledges and Canada Goose jackets in these parts. And spot prices on electricity are overheating.
Retired Engineer (18:58:53) :
Absurd. There is no snow. No ice. Everything is melting. Except where it isn’t.
Looks like the UK has a lot of snow. What does that do to wind turbines? Blade unbalance, anyone? Considering that they plan to run the entire country with them.
Unfortunately when we had our cold spell there wasn’t much wind so the environmentally friendly, low carbon generation system kept hardly anyone warm and the old fashioned coal and gas stations are on full blast, so much so, we are running out of gas and it has to be rationed. Our glorious leader says we will not run out of gas so I guess I had better make sure our old fashioned fire place is working.
Curiousgeorge (05:07:30) :
“Here comes the next guilt trip/fear mongering…..”
Yes and Obama, Hillary Clinton and her science advisor are already on board.
“There are already too many people living on Planet Earth, according to one of most influential science advisors in the US government.
Nina Fedoroff told the BBC One Planet programme that humans had exceeded the Earth’s “limits of sustainability”.
Dr Fedoroff has been the science and technology advisor to the US secretary of state since 2007, initially working with Condoleezza Rice.
Under the new Obama administration, she now advises Hillary Clinton.
Pressed on whether she thought the world population was simply too high, Dr Fedoroff replied: “There are probably already too many people on the planet.”
“…We need to continue to decrease the growth rate of the global population; the planet can’t support many more people,” Dr Fedoroff said, stressing the need for humans to become much better at managing “wild lands”, and in particular water supplies.”” This from March 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7974995.stm
This is not new and has been creeping forward for years.
“…. along with hundreds of other scenic and cultural treasures around the world, have come under the “protection” of UNESCO through the World Heritage Convention. Signed by former President Nixon in 1973, this treaty gives the United Nations authority to guide the safe-keeping of international sites and monuments “considered to be of such exceptional interest and such universal value that their protection is the responsibility of all humanity.”
What if some Heritage lands are privately owned?
It doesn’t matter. In the eyes of UNESCO, private owners can’t be trusted to guard “a World Heritage which belongs to all humanity”…” http://www.radioliberty.com/kjos4.htm
The whole thing got a major set back at the eleventh hour when the map you show was revealed to the US Congress just before they were going to ratify the UN Bio-Diversity Treaty. The treaty would have set aside 1/2 of all of the USA as “core wilderness” – no humans allowed, and much of the rest of the area as “buffer zones” – only highly regulated activity permitted. Looks like they are going to try it again now that we have a Democratic Congress more interested in being “progressive” than in the good of their citizens. They just keep coming with another way to make us slaves.
This is some information on the last go round. http://www.propertyrightsresearch.org/articles2/wildlands_project_and_un_convent.htm
FoxNews has a nice headline at the top of their website right now:
”What Global Warming ?”
Direct link to the article:
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/01/11/years-global-cooling-coming-say-leading-scientists/
Lead snippet:
”From Miami to Maine, Savannah to Seattle, America is caught in an icy grip that one of the U.N.’s top global warming proponents says could mark the beginning of a mini ice age.”
If nothing else by enough repetition, this message will penetrate the conciousness of more and more average citizens. One step at a time. . . .
JP (05:19:00) :
“What you deniers don’t seem to realize is this is all new snow and not old snow. You should also realize is much of the NH snow is the result of increased evaporation or something. Laugh now, but wait and see; January 2010 will be the 2nd hottest January since King Wenseclas chugged dark ale. And 2010 will be the hottest year since Alexander the Great invaded Costa Rica. Look it up. I’m sure it’s posted on RC somewhere. Idiots!”
Of course it will if it isn’t I am sure Hansen cam make it appear to be for the USA.
http://i31.tinypic.com/2149sg0.gif
We all know how the “climate scientists” (and I use that term very loosely) “Homogenize” the data to get the readings they want. Here is an example for Australia http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/20/darwin-zero-before-and-after/
I grew up on the Canadian prairies so I’ve experienced some pretty chilly winters and one sticks out – it was around -35C to -40C for a good month and when it finally warmed to -20C I recall having to unzip my winter coat just to cool off a bit.
May the northern hemisphere get to enjoy those good old days.
It doesn’t matter one bit to the Arctic if it’s -30 instead of -50. There’s no sun up there for the next 3 months to do any melting about it. It may lead to increased snowfall up there, but not melting.
It does matter to the latitudes below the Arctic, however, as there certainly is increase snowfall and snowcover to reflect incoming back into space.
If the late spring doesn’t get going on melting up there, and the late summer melt likewise fails, as it did last year, the switch is on for global cooling.
The IPCC, Warmists and even NOAA aren’t getting it. Doesn’t really matter, though, as it’s what the Natural Cycles are up to.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/01/11/years-global-cooling-coming-say-leading-scientists/
@ShaneofMelbourne
My brother lives in Melbourne. He tells me that the weather there is fickle (“four sasons in one day”). Looking at http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather and doing a search on “Melbourne”, while it may be 40-odd today, the forecasts for the following days (daytime) are: 19°C, 19°C, 24°C. We can even achieve those last three in England during some summers.
tarpon (10:45:32) :
Instead of putting Gore and the Warmist propaganda out to pasture by showing what was happening in the real world, they blew their loudspeaker, distracting many from making preparations for what was coming.
Damage has been done.
Pay attention! This is really a heat wave. Heat waves make things colder during a period of global warming. Climate and weather are two different things.
“PhilW (10:04:31) :
Unbelievable………….
Direct link
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/01/pachauri-money-laundering.html
”
Wouldn’t be surprise to find that there are many graduates from the ‘Bernie Madoff School of Financial Probity’.
Martin Lewitt (07:46:25) :
Perhaps the model CO2 doubling sensitivities are a bit exaggerated?
That is the 64,000 dollar question.
The expected temperature increase due directly to CO2 is pretty clear and agreed by [almost] all on both sides to be minor.
The AGW proponents take a step further and assert that the slight increase in temperature due to increased CO2 will lead to a runaway increase in the evaporation of water. Atmospheric water vapor is the real greenhouse gas. The more water vapor, the greater the greenhouse effect.
I find the whole proposition silly. We have had both greater levels of CO2 and higher temperatures in the past so why aren’t we already fried? The answer is that the climate is dominated by negative feedbacks that make it insensitive to increased CO2.
Experts like Dr. Roy Spenser are working to understand these feedback mechanisms, the most prominent being clouds and the earth’s precipitation systems.
Mike Ramsey
POFarmer asked:-
And thanks to the EU Large Combustion Plant Directive, that means they will have to be decommissioned sooner than the nominal 2015 cut off date.
I think I would be investing in backup generation.
Seriously, what are they gonna do for power?
Ermm.. the Guvmint with that Poltroon Gordon Brown is investing One Hundred BILLION Pounds in building the Wind Turbine Arrays around the coast of Britain to be the back up to closing our Power Stations…..
Those which the Gods wish to destroy, they first make Mad…
Mariss Freimanis (22:00:13) :said:-
I am a EE and not a scientist but I have followed AWG from its inception with a great deal of interest. It is my right as an informed person just as it is anyone’s right to understand the world we all live in…….etc etc etc.
Brilliant Post…have copied it to forward it on…(hope that is OK?)
A clever way of implying that he’s nuts!
Which is the new tell tale they have concocted now to keep on selling us their green agenda -taxes included- and holy progressive global government?
Found it!…Trouble was that CO2 theory was wrongly understood: As CO2 increases, a negative feedback is what really happened!!…Recently computer models debugging found a wrong code line which provoked such a misinterpretation, IPCC affirms, so we have to necessarily apply anti-pollution policies in order to avoid a disastrous and globally extended ice-age.
All joking aside, here are a couple of facts we know to be true:
1. The last 400 years have been the coolest period in the last 12,000.
2. Previous glaciations came on relatively quickly, indicating that some tipping point was reached, after which positive cooling feedback dominated for 100,000 years or so.
We also know that Milankovitch Cycle insolation is generally responsible, but we don’t know the mechanisms of the cooling (or warming) tipping points. One theory holds that albedo (from snow -> cooling feedback) is a key factor.
My question: what is the estimated heat work decrease (W/m2/day) from the albedo effect of snow?
Gail Combs (11:27:49) :
You should see that graph now http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.lrg.gif
once I’ve figured out how to rescale it I’ll try adding it to that animation.
DaveE.
Jonesll
“How do you explain such a stubbornness in non accepting reality by AGW’ers?”
It is the result of an unshakeable belief. Interestingly, I see a parallel between the AGW’ers inability to adjust to the new reality, and Stalin’s inability to recognise the German invasion in 1941.
Stalin was both a scholar of history, and supremely arrogant in his supposed ability to predict all outcomes in the world. His reading of Bismarck told him that Hitler would never open a second front, an mistake which was based on applying military logic to the complex psychopath that was Hitler.
First came intelligence reports from his own agents in Germany that Hitler was planning an invasion in 1941. Stalin assured his underlings that there would be no war before 1943. Then came reports of German armies amassing on the border. He again rationalised this away as a deliberate attempt to goad the Russians. Reports of the build up continued to pour in, and his generals urged him to make defensive preparations. He refused on the perverse logic that that was what Hitler wanted him to do by goading him into making a provocative move. Finally the invasion happened.
As German bombers attacked Russian cities and millions of men poured across the border Stalin then tried to argue that these were renegade German generals acting without Hitler’s knowledge, and still he did nothing. “There will be no invasion before 1943,” he continued to say, in complete denial of reality.
Being wedded to a belief is one of many known cognitive biases. In AGW, this bias is most noticeable in the repeated mantra that warming is “climate” and cooling is “weather.” As perverse as it sounds to an objective mind, the statement is actually perfectly logical to those suffering from this bias. Because it is manifestly obvious that humans are heating the planet, then any cooling must by definition of their belief, be the result of some quirk of nature – freak weather patterns.
Like Stalin himself, the AGW’ers are only now getting reports of those forces massing on the border.
Charlie K (10:35:45) :
Interesting article in the Daily Mail recently. My apologies if someone else has already linked to this http://bit.ly/6U9bBV. I scanned it quite quickly, but it looked to be a pretty well written article and made a point to say that this research was done by well respected scientists. Not sure if they were taking a dig a the skeptics / deniers with that comment as I read through pretty quickly. Maybe someone from the UK can lend a better idea of the usual tone of the Mail for those of us in the US.
Regards,
Charlie K
Charlie
The Mail is generally right wing by UK standards and targets lower middle-class aspirational citizens who may occasionally be a bit prejudiced/bigoted. In general the UK right wing Press has shifted to a noticeably more skeptical tone in the past 6 months, so this sort of story is not unusual since summer 2009 but would be radical in, say, 2006. The Telegraph is always schizophrenic with Booker a major skeptic and Lean an ardent warmist and Delingpole now allowed the occasional foray on the skeptic side of normality. The Express is quite skeptical. The Guardian is the warmers Bible, loyal bastion of Monbiot’s oracle, although I don’t know if it changed its tack at all recently. The Independent traditionally was extremely warmist, with Hari in particular being a zealot of almost inquisition-style intolerance. There is a rumour going around that Rod Liddle of the Times may be the new editor if Lebedew buys the organ – he is a noted skeptic, so editorial position may change slightly. The Sun is mostly interested in titillating its readers, so take its stories with a pinch of salt!! I do but jest, but ‘global warming means phwoar will come to Britain’s beaches’ might be one tack, whilst ‘global cooling means the lads need to fly to Ibiza to see some hot totty in bikinis’ would be the other editorial line…..
Hope this helps US readers understand the UK daily national Press……if the term ‘phwoar’ is not recognisable, it is the UK Tabloid Press’ way of indicating base male lust at the sight of nubile female forms not completely shrouded in textile protection……..
Snow is not that unusual in High Atlas mountain of Morocco
Well, taking it seriously, where are you planning to emigrate?. Do you think underdeveloped southerners will gladly welcome you?….You were supposed to believe in global warming, now enjoy it!, that’s fair!!☺
Here is a quote from said restaurant critic…
The two things are not related. Nobody who understands the science is claiming that global warming (if it happens) is going to make Britain hotter in the long run.
And then argues that GW is going to stop the Gulf Stream and freeze ’em all to death. I, frankly, have no idea what leads to this sort of thinking.
tallbloke (05:49:34) :
Patrick Davis (05:23:42) :
The original “Citroen 2CV” concept had very different design parameters to the Smart car. The Smart car would fail those parameters.
Eh alors! Il marche bien le deux chevaux. C’est le meilleur pour portez les peasants tous les temps! Construire avec les boites de sardine, avec un moteur gagne pendent le grand guerre deuxieme d’un motobicyclette Allemande.
Eh then! It goes the two horses well. It is the best for carry the peasants all times! To build with limp of sardine, with an engine gains hang large the war second of a motobicyclette German.
Shame on me. I have a house in France but at least I know the babelfish translation is worse than mine.
The Brittas Empire (14:53:48) :
tallbloke (05:49:34) :
Patrick Davis (05:23:42) :
The original “Citroen 2CV” concept had very different design parameters to the Smart car. The Smart car would fail those parameters.
Eh alors! Il marche bien le deux chevaux. C’est le meilleur pour portez les peasants tous les temps! Construire avec les boites de sardine, avec un moteur gagne pendent le grand guerre deuxieme d’un motobicyclette Allemande.
Eh then! It goes the two horses well. It is the best for carry the peasants all times! To build with limp of sardine, with an engine gains hang large the war second of a motobicyclette German.
Shame on me. I have a house in France but at least I know the babelfish translation is worse than mine.
C’est mon francais mauvais. Here’s babel fishes translation of what I was trying to say.
Les deux travaux de chevaux jaillissent. C’est le meilleur pour des paysans toujours. construit avec des bidons de sardine avec le moteur d’un vélomoteur d’Allemand de la deuxième guerre mondiale.
Nigel S (06:04:15) :
Mock not the 2CV. I owned one from new in 1974. It was a great car. I once retrieved it from a steep river bank in the Romney Marsh, (don’t ask) by removing the two spark plugs, putting it in reverse gear and winding it out using the starting handle to drive the front wheels.
As for my T5, “winter mode” locks out the two lower gears, so that traction is enhanced. However, summer tyres are useless for grip below zero centigrade, so winter tyres are my preferred option even in the south of the UK. Read, mark, study and inwardly digest, http://www.caranddriver.com/features/09q4/2009_winter_tire_test-comparison_tests
As previously mentioned, winter tyres cost less than the no clams discount, but then again, (engage sense of humour) I am probably the best driver in the world, with a Swedish car (as was).
yonason (06:13:36) :
Fortunately I keep my feathers numbered for just such an emergency.
WUWT (FWIW)
Ref – jack morrow (08:03:27) :
Jack’s websitelink is ???? “http://google/” ????
Ref – Ken Roberts (09:11:13) :
Ken’s websitelink is ???
“http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/25/another-small-milestone-for-wuwt/#more-11157” ????
______________
FWIW – For What It’s Worth
Tom in Florida (08:32:41) :
LOL
I was surprised that a friend in Tampa has a coconut he grew from seed. I hope yours and his survive.
As to cold hardy plants, my beets and broccoli are getting seriously stressed.
photon without a Higgs (17:30:13) :
“yonason (06:13:36) :
Fortunately I keep my feathers numbered for just such an emergency.”
LOL!
“Patrick Davis (03:34:10) :
It has been cooler in Sydney and the inner west, one indicator are flies. There are none! Just like last year, the coolness has killed them off. We will get a warm day tomorrow, the weather South Australia and Victoria had, but here’s my prediction, it’ll be cooler than the forecast (Just like the last warm bit of weather a few weeks back) and then it’ll be back to cooler again.”
Forceast was for 31c in Sydney which is within normal variations for summer, actual was ~29c, so as I expected, it was cooler than predicted. Inner west (Where I live, as it does vary as you travel further west) forecast to hit ~39c, actual was ~36. And the “scorching” temperatures are going to drop to ~24c in Sydney and about ~30 in the inner west. That’s cool for summer.
Just like last summer, slightest heat in the air the forecaster adds a couple of degees c on just for good measure. Now there are suggestions that the “catastrophic” bush fire warnings (Introduced after last year’s Victorian bush fires) are a little alarmist (No kidding).
Jimbo (05:16:39) :
More nonsense from the BBC
“Scientists have uncovered what appears to be a further dramatic increase in the leakage of methane gas that is seeping from the Arctic seabed…further studies [funding :o)] were still necessary to determine the exact cause of the methane seepage.”
It’s all those cows grazing on the seabed.
Snow extent was measured at 45.86 million sq. km, topped only by 1985 at 45.99 million sq. km. North America set a record December extent at 15.98 million sq. km, and the US also set a December record at 4.16 million sq. km.
Vincent, Rhys,
Thanks for the background on the various UK’s daily papers. When you only stumble across an article and haven’t read the papers it can be difficult to know if they are respected and trusted publications, or if they are the equivalent of the National Enquirer here in the States.
Hope all of you in the UK are coping with the snow over there. It sounds like it has had everything pretty messed up for you lately. Where I live we average ~250″ of snow annually, but everyone is geared up for it. Makes it interesting when you hear news from areas that don’t normally get much snow and they get shut down from a few inches.
Regards,
Charlie K
Woke up this morning, frost on everything, any plants that had survived so far are dead. Freakin dead! Now, once again I ask, why would anyone in their right mind want a cooler Earth????????????????????
I’ve been following the weather with a great deal more interest since I listened to “It’s a cycle…” at iceagenow.com. I’m wondering, is it true that we’ve had increased geothermal and volcanic activity of late? Is it true the surface vulcanism gives us increased solar reflectivity in earths atmosphere?
Is it possible that whatever the forces are that are giving us our magnetic excursion might be affecting the molten core, so that new orientation of flow brings us increased vulcanism? Just speculating of course.
[REPLY – I think it probably has more to do with the oceanic-atmospheric multidecadal oscillations. There’s a pretty fair correlation. About a half dozen of the most important flipped from cold to warm, one by one, from 1976 – 2001 (temps. rose). Then from 2001 – 2007 they were all warm or neutral (temps. were flat). Then in 2007, the PDO and possibly others have started turning cold (temps. are down a bit). ~ Evan]
Thanks! I did see an article indicating 20 to 30 year cycles associated to ocean temps 3000 feet down. The volcanic thing though, is it real in regard to there being increased activity? You see I am also wondering if we have multiple cycles of various things that sometimes coincide, sometimes don’t? And, why would the volcanic activity increase and decrease? The solar activity variations are a trip too!
[REPLY – I’m not up on volcanic cycles (what with 40,000-mile long rifts of them), but I heartily agree that it is a wheels within wheels kind of thing. ~ Evan]
Exactly! Wheels within wheels, yes.
For a while I was speculating that the solar magnetism might actually be strong enough to cut the spinning earth and generate a current that, encountering resistance, would generate heat. I doubt it now. I think the core shifts in response to the sun and other gravitational influences and that it has climate effects. Sometimes the geomagnetic migration coincides with an ice age sometimes not? I’m still trying to get a tentacle on it.
Here’s my impression, from the ideas I gleaned at iceagenow.com, articles etc.
There’s a 90 K.Yr glaciation \ 10K.yr inter glaciation. We fortunate? humans just had our 10. In addition there’s a mini ice age cycle of some sort.
The solar output minimums are at least one thing that seem associated with the little ice age incidents. The longer ice ages seem associated with the earths complete magnetic flip, as are some extinctions. The mere excursion events of the earths magnetic field are also somehow associated with cold snaps of one sort or another. I’m still trying to get that clear. As well, there may be some sort of comet associated impact to the earth involved at one time or another. Anyway, something to explain that ejecta \ Carolina Bays thing that looks like there was some serious splashing of fragments of the earth that have a tear drop shape to them where they came to rest.
That ejecta event seems to have been related to an ice cycle?
Added to the mix we have a higher frequency vibe going with the 20\30 yr deep ocean temp, possibly affected by vulcanism \ geothermal cycles on the ocean bottom, and solar reflectivity influenced by both vulcanism and surface ice.
Then the tilt and possibly distance of the earth changes in relation to the sun and that may be affecting both solar radiation received and motions of the earths core, and we’re back to vulcanism? Agh! Oops forgot the galaxies gravitational effect on the sun and those dratted solar system planets. Never let your cats get into the medicine cabinet before gathering the herd.