From the “WUWT never reports warm events” department: After a drop last month, this is not unexpected, given the time of year. With an El Nino present the tropics and southern hemisphere warmed the most.
November 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.50 deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
2009 9 +0.422 +0.549 +0.294 +0.511
2009 10 +0.286 +0.274 +0.297 +0.326
2009 11 +0.496 +0.418 +0.575 +0.493
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly rebounded from +0.29 deg. C in October to +0.50 deg. C in November. Both hemispheres, as well as the tropics, contributed to this warmth. The global anomaly for November of +0.50 deg. C is a period record for November (since 1979); the previous November high was +0.40 deg C. in 2004.
Following is the global-average sea surface temperature anomalies through November 2009 from the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite:
As usual, the trend line in the previous figure should not be construed as having any predictive power whatsoever — it is for entertainment purposes only.
Didn’t these people throw out some large number of the ocean robot temperature takers? It seems to me that these temperature trends seem to be linked more with them dropping stations that are trending cooler and relying on more and more stations trending higher?
Any smarter than me people have a position or experience on this?
The rise in TLT anomalies reflects the jump in NINO3.4 SST anomalies during November. I posted the preliminary global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies a couple of days ago.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/preliminary-november-2009-sst-anomalies.html
NOAA will post the official monthly data for November on December 6th, but the monthly values are in line with the weekly data (also in that post) and the weekly data is official.
Regards
Is the Current Anomally better, or worse than we expected, compared to the Medieval Anomally?
This is the reason why i am ashame to be a Quebecois sometime. Jean-charest is under fire right now. The liberal party has been found to be involved in corruption relating to contrac given to construction company. They have also been pushing lots and lots of law lately like lowering alchool limit from 0.08 to 0.05, forcing poeple to wear helmet will riding bicicle, raising taxes, ……. there is lots and lots more but the most important thing is that they are pushing lots of new environnemental law. The poeple are getting really mad seeing everything that is going on right now and especially since we were threated like ginuea pig lately whit the A H1N1. The governement has been pushing the vaccine on us and threatening people to force vaccination on them and now putting pregnate women in isolation if they refuse the vaccine. 50% at least of the pregnate women refused to get vaccinated and between 30% to 40% of the population was vaccinated even tho they were saying we needed a minimum of 80%.
‘Is the Current Anomally better, or worse than we expected, compared to the Medieval Anomally?’
Uah only goes back 30 years so we don’t really know 😀
November was really nice in North Texas. Mostly sunny and temps 5 degrees above normal.
But, December is starting out 5 degrees below normal.
Of course, Whistler shattered its all time record for snow in November.
The temps should have climbed, the el nino has strengthened.
Holy sh*t, we’re all going to die. (Well, actually, we all are, unfortunately (sorry to break the news)). But this is, I believe, El Nino.
Hehe… so this ‘Temperature Anomaly’ number has been shown to be the climate equivelent of a FICO score: an intesting number because of the secrecy of it’s creation but utterly useless in it’s predictive power.
Confusion is normal for me so I feel no shame by asking this question.
If surface temperatures increase and let’s totally ignore the issues of veracity or relevance of what the numbers actually represent, does that mean that more thermal energy is transported into space at a time when the thermal influx is somewhat waning.
So we’re losing Joules, mayhaps, but still warming!
This CO2 stuff is truly amazing!
Anybody know the margin of errors on those measurements?
I can’t find a contact email, so I’ll make this comment here.
I see that you put RealClimate on your blogroll (good) and RealClimate does not have you and Climate Audit (bad). Someone should point this out to the blogosphere, perhaps in a post with traffic statistics. Blogosphere geeks would find this significant info about openness to discussion.
And what strength is this El Nino?
Weak, Moderate, Strong ??
Stephane (18:49:50) :
Je vous comprende. Comme habitant, vous n’avez pas de chois, mais beaucoup de joix. Malheureusement, votre gouvernement est laxe, il s’en fut du peuple. Pourquoi? Parceque le peuple le lesse. Je m’en fut de vos pleintes!! Vous ne faissez de rien!
We had one of the warmest Novembers ever here in Saskatchewan, Canada. That makes record breaking cold August and July. Record breaking warm September. Record breaking cold October … and now an El Nino November from heaven.
Up, down, up, down … Yes, if recent history is any predictor then Dec. is likely to be down. After a warm Nov. in the midwest we are also getting cool temps to start the new month.
Predicting snow for Houston on TWC. That should take some of the luster off the warm November.
The last thing you want when the earth is cooling is for high surface temperatures to happen. That’ll cause the planet to lose more heat and accelerate the decline! Time to start praying for Mr Sol to spark up.
I believe Senator James Inhofe should call for an FCC investigation of the MSM networks for ignoring their fiduciary responsibility and purposely failing to report the greatest scientific fraud of our time. Perhaps a few networks should lose their FCC license over the blatant lies of omission perpetrated by the networks.
The Northern Hemisphere came in about where I expected … higher anomaly than October but less than September. It was the Southern Hemisphere that was the “shocker” for me.
Anthony,
In your opinion, how trustworthy is this dataset?
Study Finds Ozone Hole Repair Contributes To Global Warming, Sea Ice Melt
http://www.popsci.com/environment/article/2009-12/study-finds-ozone-hole-repair-contributes-global-warming-sea-level-rise
Bob Tisdale — thanks for the sea surface temps. I note you say:
“If one considers only the linear relationship between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and Global Temperaures, if NINO3.4 SST anomalies were to rise x deg C, then global temperatures should respond approximately three to six months later by rising x deg C multiplied by a factor of approximately 0.09.”
Some of us non-experts are wondering how big el nino is looking to be, and if that is likely to push a new air temp record during 2010 (during a continuing solar min? and as predicted by Hansen).
I would say these numbers are unexpectedly high. They are obviously El Nino influenced and the tropics change shows this to be the case, but it shouldn’t have had made this much change for November.
There is variability and this could be one of those. But we will have to watch and see if the El Nino moves temperatures even higher in the months ahead because history says there is more to come yet.
The El Nino peak is forecast for early January and temperatures should peak about 3 months after this.
So, is this trend mainly driven by the SST’s? Are the warmer SST’s driven by the lack of Hurricanes? What are the land trends?
I tend to think the good ole Ocean is serving it’s governor function.
In Lord Monckton’s latest paper he states that the satellites are calibrated using the surface temp data. (note: SPPI seems to have taken down the long paper he posted yesterday and substituted a very short one). I guess this only affects the starting point and not the ongoing data:
“Since the satellites do not have thermometers on board, and would be in the wrong place for taking the Earth’s near-surface temperature even if they had them, their atmospheric measurements have to be processed and reconstructed so as to become a temperature record. That requires the measurements to be calibrated. And what are they calibrated against? The instrumental surface-temperature record, of course. Therefore, if the surface temperature record has been accidentally or artificially enhanced in order to show greater warming than what has in truth occurred, the satellite temperature records that were originally calibrated against it would tend to show the same inaccurate overstatement of “global warming”.”
Off topic but interesting:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/local/Former-NASA-climate-scientist-pleads-guilty-to-contract-fraud-8613137-78268862.html
Plus there was a blocking ridge dominating the East Pacific for much of the month.
A crack may be forming.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-climate-emails3-2009dec03,0,2224917.story
In my opinion (since 2002 at least) UAH is probably best temperature trend metric available. The station keeping satellite solved a lot of problems
Humans don’t control physics, except for super humans like Mann.
This “cold phase” PDO recently experienced a “warm spike” which reinvigorated the El Nino. Waiting for PDO Index November numbers.
SST Sep was 0.52, Oct 0.27. If trend in PDO continues into negative territory, perhaps this El Nino will weaken and eventually fizzle out.
A letter to the community from Ben Santer:
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/02/a-climate-scientist-on-data-mining-for-dirt/
Re:
D. King (20:11:24) :
A crack may be forming.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-climate-emails3-2
“A crack” is an apt description.
I did a few searches of the LA Times and this story appears to be their first mention of the climategate emails. It is a whopping 31 word, single sentence (not including the headline).
From the above mentioned LATimes article”
…Boxer said. “To me, what’s important is, e-mails aside, is there global warming? Is it being affected by human activity? And there’s nothing out there that says otherwise.”
I think she has it bass ackwards.
not having any scientific background whatsoever, i would like someone on this site to explain if anything in the following link is meaningful. thanx.
SPURIOUS WARMING IN NEW NOAA OCEAN TEMPERATURE PRODUCT: THE SMOKING GUN
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D. | August 27, 2009
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/blogwatch/spurious_warming.pdf
O.K. Been looking for this. Here’ s a forecast where Joe Bastardi is making his NA winter weather forecast, and he’s talking about this El Nino. The long and short of it is that it ain’t showing up in the atmospheric data like the 90’s ones did.
I guess the video must be on the Accuweather pro site. Nuts.
not sure if the url went thru properly. please note:
SPURIOUS WARMING IN NEW NOAA OCEAN TEMPERATURE PRODUCT: THE SMOKING GUN
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D. | August 27, 2009
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/blogwatch/spurious_warming.pdf
Briffa 1998 shows N hemisphere temperatures falling steeply from 1945 to 1978, a slight rise to 1984, the a fall again.
http://eas8001.eas.gatech.edu/papers/Briffa_et_al_PTRS_98.pdf
Is there any other data to support this trend ?
Radiosonde data seems to roughly fit the post 1958 section.
Re: David Walton (20:28:10) :
It is a whopping 31 word, single sentence (not including the headline).
Ooops, I didn’t scroll down far enough on the first pass. Much longer.
O/T In case you still thought climate scientists weren’t politicians, it looks like Phil Jones just starred in his first political cartoon…
http://townhall.com/cartoons/cartoonist/GaryVarvel/2009/12/1
In the LA Times article linked to by D King it says this:
“‘The e-mails do nothing to undermine the very strong scientific consensus . . . that tells us the earth is warming, that warming is largely a result of human activity,’ Jane Lubchenco, who heads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told a House committee. She said that the e-mails don’t cover data from NOAA and NASA, whose independent climate records show dramatic warming.”
However, that is a direct contradiciton to this said by CRU in response to their raw data being destroyed:
“Refuting CEI’s claims of data-destruction, Jones said, ‘We haven’t destroyed anything. The data is still there — you can still get these stations from the [NOAA] National Climatic Data Center.'”
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/10/14/14greenwire-scientists-return-fire-at-climate-skeptics-in-31175.html
So how can NOAA and CRU be completely independent while at the same time saying that NOAA has all CRU’s data? These guys either can’t get their stories straight or they know they are lying but hoping to not have people realize what they say in one part of the world will also show up in other parts of the world to see if the stories match. Actually if you look into what CRU says about the data destruction, they just wont admit that they destroyed their unique data but are instead trying to trick people into thinking two different data sets are the same data set (with all their tweaking and incestuous relationships, I think they make sure their numbers basically match, but it doesn’t mean you can say the raw NOAA data is the raw CRU data).
Perhaps someone can tell me how ENSO causes an increase in global temperature. Is ENSO a release of stored energy? I understand that ENSO causes predictable weather changes, with some places becoming hotter and wetter and others becoming colder and drier or some combination of the states. But it would seem that globally temperatures would balance out, ENSO or not. Or is there a problem with data collection?
Ben Santer needs to be invistigated. HIs letter is his attempt at PR now that his hand has been caught in the cookie jar. Santer in his emails made it very clear that he was obstructing FOIA requests in coordination with CRU’s own FOIA obstruction. He also pre-emptively calls the leak something done by a criminal hacker, but of course we don’t know who did the leak, so they very well could have been a whistleblower who would be entitled to protections. These emails also weren’t private as they related to work paid for by the taxpayer, but he just shows how he thinks he’s got his own little fiefdom.
Aaron W. (19:04:15) :
The temps should have climbed, the el nino has strengthened.
So what happens when the energy from El Nino dissipates?
All I did was talk to the Independent about what I thought 2007 had in store weatherwise. With an El Nino going on, I thought it might be a record and just trotted off the typical things that happen in El Nino years.
Cheers
Phil
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=762&filename=1167928837.txt
“Or is there a problem with data collection?”
I expect the more we look into this, we will see there are problems with data collection…at least to when it comes to if the world’s economies shold be reworked.
royfomr (19:26:23) :
The last thing you want when the earth is cooling is for high surface temperatures to happen. That’ll cause the planet to lose more heat and accelerate the decline! Time to start praying for Mr Sol to spark up.
I was thinking the same thing. But the sun isn’t in the mood.
Would you like a little ice with your crops?
chainpin (20:28:09) :
A letter to the community from Ben Santer:
If we don’t pay attention to his letter is he going to want to meet us all in a dark alley?
Warm Saskatchewan, ElNino, it’s all just weather. I still see a cooling trend.
royfomr (19:26:23) :
accelerate the decline
it can be hidden
My God! Its warm – so it must be caused by us, obviously.
The internet, which Al Gore invented, was hot in November because of ClimateGate, like millions of degrees. Resultant warming for Copenhagen. So you see that’s proof it was Al Gore that leaked ClimateGate.
I found this e-mail disturbing as Trevor Davies discusses having to divvy up what is a limited pot of cash with universities. See b)
From: Trevor Davies
To: m.kelly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,j.palutikof@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: CRU Board
Date: Tue, 04 May 1999 09:08:24 +0100
Mick,
CONFIDENTIAL
I think I’m missing out on something here (refer also to Keith’s email
where he talked about “CRU being railroaded by ENV”). My recollection was
that it was agreed that I should approach Reading to see if they are up to
anything & sound out if they might be interested in talking about a joint
bid. The suggestion may have been mine originally, but I do not have
absolute recollection over that. Southampton have approached us via the
Registrar and via Peter Liss. As far as I am aware, nobody from UEA has
approached them (although I have certainly argued with Jean that we should
at least talk with them).
I now have a leaked document which spells out some of the research
councils’ thinking. I will get a copy over to CRU today. Please keep this
document within the CRU5, since it may compromise the source. NERC and
EPSRC are signed up. ESRC are not yet. Given the EPSRC stake, it will
certainly be be useful to get RAL etc involved. The funding might be
2million per year. That might imply that the Councils favour multi-site,
clusters, etc, but they stress they have no preconceptions.
Given some of their requirements, the JIF bid may be useful.
An important requirement seems to be to attract an “internationally
renowned and charismatic scientist” to be overall Director. Do you think we
should sound out Schneider? Watson? ??
Trevor
At 11:17 01/05/99 +0100, Mick Kelly wrote:
>I can’t make the re-arranged date so here is my input on some of the items
>I know are on the agenda:
>
>National Climate Centre:
>
>1. I feel even more strongly after learning more of the opposition that we
>should make a single site bid and capitalise on our proven track record as
>the only UK university which has covered and can cover all aspects of the
>climate issue from hard science to policy and philosophy.
>We should
>continue to firm up our links with NERC institutes, Hadley Centre, etc.
>But if we reach out to other universities we will:
>a) reveal what we see to be our sectoral weaknesses – a very bad strategic
>move
>b) have to split what is a limited pot of cash
>c) create a potential adminstrative monster that we know ERSC don’t like
>from CSERGE experience
>d) weaken our comparative advantage as the place where all aspects of the
>issue are covered.
>It’s my understanding that the CRU 5 have already decided in previous
>discussions that this is the way we should go? Trevor – do you want to
>argue against this? It’s notable that we haven’t been approached by other
>universities!
>
>2. Kerry reckons that likely limited lifetime of ESRC presence
>(Global Env programme office) at SPRU means it’s not worth approaching
>them – so I haven’t.
>
>3. I propose a working group be set up to move forward the centre proposal
>and ensure coordination/representation of views. 2 from CRU Bd,
>2 from CSERGE (Kerry and Neil?), Dean. Chair from CRU would be my vote –
>this should not all be loaded on Trevor’s shoulders.
>
>Studentships
>To report on situation re my proposals:
>1. Craig Wallace (ex MSc) is reserve candidate (joint with Tim Osborn).
>2. My candidate for my solo topic was switched to the ESRC/NERC
>interdisciplinary bid by the studentship committee even though I’d told
>them we definitely couldn’t put him forward for this – so that’s
>scratched. They thought my topic was not NERC-friendly – but didn’t tell
>me this till after the event. A number of phrases spring to mind but maybe
>they were just having a bad day.
>3. My feeling is best tactic for next year
>if we want more students – do we or are we at saturation point? – is to
>advertise early (now?), advertise applicants must have/be in line for a
>first or MSc with distinction, ensure we get feedback on topics from the
>committee and submit candidates early on in the process. Obvious, really.
>
>CRU 5 employment/salaries situation
>What is the current situation?
>
>AOB: Desk space for students
>Can I repeat that I think we should have policy on registration only ie
>post three year grad. students to be adopted when Nick finishes and before
>we hit the next late submitter? My feeling is a desk for 6 months then
>they move out to our overflow rooms in ENV. We should prioritise desk
>space in CRU for first year students. What does ENV do in this situation?
>
>Regards
>Mick
>
> ______________________________________________
>
>Mick Kelly Climatic Research Unit
>University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ
>United Kingdom
>Tel: 44-1603-592091 Fax: 44-1603-507784
>Email: m.kelly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/
>______________________________________________
>
>
>
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Professor Trevor D. Davies
Dean, School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ
United Kingdom
Tel. +44 1603 592836
Fax. +44 1603 507719
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=104&filename=925823304.txt
Dark alleys and scientists go together so well. Like Einstein, he was always beating people up. Galileo, he busted a guy over the head with a telescope. And don’t even get da Vinci started!
Why does no one ever track theta-e or something else that better measures total energy?
Only slightly off topic, but I think the Tom Wigley emails and the 1940’s
‘blip’ are the strongest evidence of falsifying data. There is one email from Tom Wigley at UCAR that discusses fudging Sea Surface Temperatures to try and hide the warm period spanning the 1930’s and 1940’s. When combined with CRU data from 2005/2008 which shows these warm ‘blips’ all over the world, and the CRU code which lowers land data (ground stations) in this period while raising current temps, you have plenty of evidence of falsifying data.
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11685
Gene Nemetz (21:04:26) :
Correct me if I have this wrong:
The El Nino transports ocean heat to the land, which gets you high surface temps which blow off into space…hence the loss. And after that, it’s downhill quickly with an idle Sun not holding the equilibrium in place. And that would be the last thing you would want to see happen.
Right?
Re:
Dave (20:50:01) :
In the LA Times article linked to by D King it says this:
“‘The e-mails do nothing to undermine the very strong scientific consensus . . . that tells us the earth is warming, that warming is largely a result of human activity,’ Jane Lubchenco, who heads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told a House committee. She said that the e-mails don’t cover data from NOAA and NASA, whose independent climate records show dramatic warming.”
However, that is a direct contradiciton to this said by CRU in response to their raw data being destroyed:
“Refuting CEI’s claims of data-destruction, Jones said, ‘We haven’t destroyed anything. The data is still there — you can still get these stations from the [NOAA] National Climatic Data Center.’”
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/10/14/14greenwire-scientists-return-fire-at-climate-skeptics-in-31175.html
More detains on that here in a story published yesterday –
CRU data loss account in dispute
http://www.examiner.com/x-28973-Essex-County-Conservative-Examiner~y2009m12d1-CRU-data-loss-account-in-dispute
I think I feel a headache coming on.
Looking at SST anomalies in the Pacific it doesn’t seem to be getting warmer currently.
Andy
For everone who wants to learn about El Nino, this is the link you need.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/
Click the PDF file. It is updated every monday. The current equatorial SST anomaly is around 1.5 degrees celcius, all natural.
OT but both Joe Bastardi and Piers Corbyn predict awfull cold weather for Copenhagen summit.
El Nino does tend to spike global average temperatures…though an El Nino with a cold PDO has the opposite affect in the mid latitudes in the winter months (you can see this by doing composites on NCAR’s reanalysis composite page)…which is why the smart money is on a cold and snowy winter in the southern and eastern US, much of Central Europe and the far east.
David Walton (21:54:06) :
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Tom Karl called up in front of the Senate.
Between him & Jones proprietary process, was there any outside opinion or effort possible?
Michael (21:25:42) :
Very troubling, and what does this mean?
… NERC and EPSRC are signed up. ESRC are not yet.
Given the EPSRC stake, it will certainly be be useful
to get RAL etc involved. …
This has got me seeing conspiracies everywhere.
I need to recalibrate.
“People write ridiculous e-mails when they’re in the middle of a fight,” Boxer said. “To me, what’s important is, e-mails aside, is there global warming? Is it being affected by human activity? And there’s nothing out there that says otherwise.”
I’d be curious as to Boxer’s stock portfolio changes in the last 2 weeks.
Richard Black [BBC “Environment correspondent”] has done it again…….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8389706.stm
Conclusion from RB
“The broad outline, though, deviates little from the IPCC’s conclusions -unequivocal evidence of warming, more than 90% likelihood that humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases were principally to blame, projections of temperature and sea level rise, declining crop yields, mountain glacier melt, and considerable damage to ecosystems and the human economy.”
Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
Anthony, can you put a straight trend line on that? Looks to my untrained, naked eye that we’ve warmed about 0.3C in 30 years. Or 0.1C per decade.
To me, this slow, non-catastrophic increase in temperature should be expected. It seems pretty consistent with the (pre-existing) trend of the world emerging from the Little Ice Age. Steady as she goes, eh?
At this pace we’ll be at +1C by 2070. Then I expect nature will pull temperatures back down (as she did after the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Warming and all the others before them).
In New Hampshire November was a blessing, after a cold October with two snowfalls scared my socks off. Concord, N.H. was +4.1 for November. after being -2.4 for October and -1.8 for September.
The warm November allowed me to get some important outside chores done.
I know some folk pray for cold weather, because cold and snow irritates the heck out Alarmists. However have some mercy on us old fools who farm. If you must pray, pray for snow on Copenhagen.
I think a sound-bite of flakes falling, as delegates attempting to talk about Cap and Trade, would influence the general public more than an upward blip on a graph.
pat (20:40:43) :
Wow. So, what, are they all unionized there? Can’t fire the incompetents, and the decent scientists just move on?
“Perhaps someone can tell me how ENSO causes an increase in global temperature.”
I’ve been wondering the same thing.
Does El Nino suck more heat out of the sun?
Does El Nino trap more heat from the sun?
Does El Nino achieve nucular fusion at its core?
How can a weather pattern warm the earth?
I understand how a weather pattern can move heat around on the earth, and this may result in higer averaged surface temperatures. But given that there is no additional heat coming in and no additional being trapped vs non El Nino periods, that implies that average surface temp is not a measure of ‘global warming’, except perhaps over some period of (unknown?) length …
NCEP CFS forecast shows cold PDO remaining despite warm El Nino. (The cold PDO shows up as a backwards letter “c” in the Pacific water temperature anomalies.)
Back during the last cold PDO the El Ninos were weaker and didn’t last as long.
I think the NCEP CFS model is based upon more recent data, which includes data from a warm PDO. Therefore it may predict the El Nino will be warmer and last longer than it does.
The NCEP CFS model predicts the El Nino will still be up around 1.0 next June. I will bet you a nickel it will be below .5 (and therefore officially “neutral,”) by next May.
As expected. It’ll help the coasts, but the mid continents will be cold and snowy in the N.H. winter.
So we have a new record high for november anomaly? Even higher than 1998 or any other year before that in the sattelite history?
OK, there’s an el nino, but there’ve been a lot of el ninos before that and the one we’re having rightnow is pretty weak. Why is this leading to such a record?
Looks like December in the US is going to be chilly. Big blast of cold air settling in to the middle of the country. California is going to get blasted by a major storm next week (look for the potential of several feet of snow in the Sierras next week).
Santer’s letter is nothing more than special pleading — he avoids the issues exposed in the leaked e-mails.
The only reliable global temperature record starts in 1979, i.e. UAH LT or RSS LT.
Michael (21:25:42) : copied from your posted leaked e-mail:
“our proven track record as the only UK university which has covered and can cover all aspects of the climate issue from hard science to policy and philosophy.”
We knew it all along but they admit it themselves that they go beyond hard science.
I see that some people here question this data. We should not. Let us not behave like warmists, but accept what is and isn’t happening. The UAH and RSS are the only two data that we can reasonably trust. If warming in the LT continued then we’d have something to answer, no matter how uncomfortable it may be. However, my personal belief is that it will fall again – and the warmists will have to explain why. Let’s trust Christy, Spencer etc. as this is the best of a less-than-perfect bunch of ways to study the temperature anomaly if there is one.
Just out of curiosity, why a 13-months running average ?
I would have expected a 12-months, to even up seasonal effects.
BernieL: You asked, “Some of us non-experts are wondering how big el nino is looking to be, and if that is likely to push a new air temp record during 2010 (during a continuing solar min? and as predicted by Hansen).”
I don’t make predictions. But for this El Nino there have been lots of concern about it turning into a Super El Nino, so I did a quick comparison of subsurface images.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/will-200910-el-nino-become-super-el.html
My conclusion read, So if these comparisons of subsurface anomalies can be used as a predictor of the peak SST anomalies, the current El Nino would peak somewhere between the 1991/92 El Nino and the 1972/73 El Nino. Will it? Dunno. I don’t make predictions. The current El Nino may have some surprises in store.
Here’s a graph of NINO3.4 SST anomalies that include those El Nino events:
http://i35.tinypic.com/73du8j.png
And being at a continuing solar minimum versus a “normal length ” solar minimum would have no effect on the amount of energy introduced into tropical Pacific Ocean during the last La Nina event(s). It is lower than it would be if the solar cycle was at maximum, but minimum is minimum.
The amount of downward shortwave radiation introduced during a La Nina also appears to be depedent on the strength of the Trade Winds at the time. The 1995/96 La Nina wasn’t anything exceptional, but the curious 1995/96 upsurge in tropical Pacific OHC…
http://i36.tinypic.com/eqwdvl.png
…was explained in McPhaden (1999) “Genesis and Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino.” It is the result of “stronger than normal trade winds associated with a weak La Nina in 1995–96.”
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/mcph2029/text.shtml
The stronger trade winds reduce cloud amount, which, in turn, allows more DSR to warm the ocean. The stronger trade winds also feed that warm water to the Pacific Warm Pool at an elevated rate.
The relationships are explained in detail in my post “More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents”.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-detail-on-multiyear-aftereffects_26.html
The oceans vary the rate at which they release energy to the air.
The upper atmosphere varies in the rate at which energy is released to space.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/AGU-SABER.html
Contrary to expectations an active sun cools the upper atmosphere and a quiet sun permits it to warm.
The Earth system temperature and especially the energy in the troposphere depends on the interplay.
I have tried to analyse the climate implications here:
http://climaterealists.com/attachments/database/The%20Missing%20Climate%20Link.pdf
Yesterday I updated my ongoing 12 month temperature tracking based on 100+ year Bureau of Meteorology records from 32 locations within the 2.5 million square kilometres of Western Australia, and the results are in line with the UAH readings for a jump in southern hemisphere temps in November.
In the 12 months to and including October, the average mean minimum at all 32 locations combined was .39 degrees C higher than the average in the early 1900s. The average maximum was .6 degrees C higher. However, in the 12 months to and including November, the average mean minimum was .49 degrees C higher and the average mean maximum was .89 degrees C higher than 100 years earlier… i.e. November was unusually warm across Western Australia, reversing an earlier cooling trend. See http://www.waclimate.net
A 1 year vs 30 year comparison from the early 1900s isn’t valid but it was by far the biggest increase in maxima that I’ve seen since I started calculating the monthly comparison about six months ago. The cynic in me wonders if the BoM itself warmed things up in November in preparation for Copenhagen, but I can see no evidence of such.
OT – Stephane (18:49:50) :
This is the reason why i am ashame to be a Quebecois sometime. Jean-charest is under fire right now. The liberal party has been found to be involved in corruption relating to contrac given to construction company. They have also been pushing lots and lots of law lately like lowering alchool limit from 0.08 to 0.05, forcing poeple to wear helmet will riding bicicle, raising taxes, …….
Since you mention bicycle helmet laws, I can’t resist pointing to another site I maintain at http://www.cycle-helmets.com
I often marvel at the similarity between the climate change and bicycle helmet debates – statistical evidence vs a profound public belief (largely based on parental fear). The pre and post helmet law results in Western Australia clearly show more annual hospital admissions despite about 30% less people cycling (and keeping fit) because of the law. Several hundred more cyclists end up in hospital each year compared to pre-law road numbers, including more head injuries because of the significantly increased overall accident rate. Since 1992, it’s been impossible to find a law supporter or journalist who will even look at the government’s own hospital and road survey data and I cop abuse for pointing out the facts … which is exactly what happens when I talk about climate change. Never let the facts get in the way of a popular belief.
If anybody wants to abuse me because of my helmet site, please do so via my site rather than this forum because the moderators won’t be impressed.
Reply: As long as you’re not talking about tinfoil helmets it’s fine with me. ~ ctm
ctm: “As long as you’re not talking about tinfoil helmets it’s fine with me.”
Another great response. We’re gonna have to create a thread with ctm-isms.
Jurav
Look here. There is potential for extreme cold just after or during the COP15
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx
tallbloke (00:10:03) :
It surely is not helping warm things here, mid-US Pacific coast. The real cold will hit this weekend.
Richard (22:54:32) :
And I wonder if Boxer would even change her tune if a foot of snow fell in Sacramento or the doors to Congress froze shut. There’s nothing else out there because nothing else is allowed in there.
rbateman (21:40:13) :
And after that, it’s downhill quickly with an idle Sun not holding the equilibrium in place. And that would be the last thing you would want to see happen.
Nah, heck, everyone is up for damaged crops from cold, especially poor countries. They think it’s a hoot.
Gene Nemetz (03:27:17) :
One of my favorite quips is “driving the wrong way on the freeway”.
I had the unenviable pleasure one day of seeing a speeding car coming over a rise on US 395 …straight for me. I had time to put the car on the inside freeway shoulder, and not a split second more. The white car was by me in a flash, and all I could see in the rear-view mirror were cars scattering left & right.
When policy is aimed opposite the flow of nature, things will be upon us in an instant.
Would anyone know where I could find global land surface temperature anomaly maps for November 2009? – sorry lost the link.
The Eastern half of South Africa has been experiencing below average temperatures since early November, and near constant rain and cold; different from the hot and dry conditions normally experienced during El Nino.
pat:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/08/spurious-sst-warming-revisited/
I guess the msm will be all over this like flys to (snip)
Please forgive my ignorance, but I wonder if someone could explain.
From my school chemistry days the by products of burning fossil fuels were CO2 and H20. If water vapour is a more potent greehouse gas than CO2 why aren’t we more concerned about the H2O in the atmosphere. Also does anyone know just how much water has been released through burning fossil fuels and what effect, if any, this might have on sea levels.
Be kind, just trying to learn :o)
Thanks.
@PaulH The AGW thesis was that the CO2 was supposed to produce a hot spot in the lower stratosphere due to increased evaporation. Needless to say, it has not been observed. The thing with water vapor is that while it may absorb a lot of energy, it releases it when it condenses and creates a thing (aka a cloud) that has a high albedo that reflects the incoming solar energy back out into space. It is somewhat self correcting.
The re-intensification of the El Nino is interesting in the context of Ian Pilmer’s thesis that earthquake swarms in the area off of Asia have a triggering effect on the El Nino. We certainly have had some interesting earthquake activity this year and the El Nino re-intensified. Correlation is not causation, but it is interesting none the less.
just a question the sst anomalies go from 60 north to 60 south, is there a global figure, is this the scenario on the amsu website, and finally is the .5 figure representative of the entire globe or is it missing parts of the antarctic and arctic ?
just a few questions: the sst anomalies go from 60north to 60 south, is there a global figure, is this what is repesented on the amsu website and finally is the .5 figure representative of the entire globe or is it missing parts of the antartic and artic?
If anybody wants to abuse me because of my helmet site, please do so via my site rather than this forum because the moderators won’t be impressed.
Reply: As long as you’re not talking about tinfoil helmets it’s fine with me. ~ ctm
When I think about it, the mandatory bicycle helmet issue is entirely relevant to climate change so abuse of my site can be channeled through WUWT without upsetting anyone (except me if the abuse is really, really good :-).
Australia has just changed the leadership of a major political party and as a result its Senate has rejected proposed laws aimed at cutting greenhouse gases, with the legislation to again be tabled in February. Yet it is one of only two countries in the world that actively discourages cycling and thus encourages the use of motor cars through the imposition of national all-age bicycle helmet laws. Repeal Australia’s bike helmet laws and it’s guaranteed to cut greenhouse gases.
Maybe new Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott should take note if he seriously wants alternative ways to cut greenhouse gases other than an Emissions Trading Scheme, if he seriously wants the Liberal Party to oppose Labor policies, or if he seriously wants the Liberal Party to represent liberty.
Does anyone know why Hudson bay is freezing slower than normal this year?
Prof.Piers Corbyn has issued a document which says:
Prof Phil Jones has ‘stood aside’ (1st Dec) as Director of the Climatic Research Unit (‘CRU’) of the University of East Anglia while an ‘independent’ review of ClimateGate is carried out.
“This is a token intended to enable a coverup of the shameful suppression of differing science and the hiding of data on world cooling by those in charge of this data.”
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23595663
Ben M (23:33:03) :
Anthony, can you put a straight trend line on that? Looks to my untrained, naked eye that we’ve warmed about 0.3C in 30 years. Or 0.1C per decade.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/plot/uah/trend
Pretty close Ben, about 1.2c per decade.
Thank you, Stephen Wilde. So, heat is indeed stored in the oceans, which periodically release heat to the atmosphere, where periodically it is released to space.
oops… that would be .12c per decade. I should try proof reading.
If anyone out there is interested in true science, you must read the following report:
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/Monckton-Caught%20Green-Handed%20Climategate%20Scandal.pdf
Well, as much as I hate to admit it, it looks like we are re-entering a warming trend. The up side of that is, I believe, that warmer earth=better earth. And my jetski likes warm weather!
Wasn’t the satellite data at some point calibrated using surface readings? Makes me wonder if maybe even the satellite measurements are skewed positively.
Satellite data is calibrated with balloons. Balloon data is highly accurate, if I recall correctly. Obviously, we can’t send ballons up four times a day at 100 miles equidistances across the earth. Not sure where surface readings come into play.
One month does not make a trend.
We’ve been pretty much all over the place in 2009… unusually cool summer, a warm spike in September, unusually cool October, pleasantly warmer November, and we’re going into December with nothing but cold in the forecasts.
Seems to me there IS no trend. Overall, my lake thawed and froze within a few days of average, according to my personal 15 year record of it. It’s December, we can expect snow. Purely from a local standpoint, I welcome and encourage any El Nino activity we can get. Temps go up, temps go down. Welcome to “weather”.
From a local aspect here, it has definitely been warm for a couple three weeks now, after a generally cold year.
lars…
thanx for the link explaining the correction.
I followed global sst images last month. November did get warm, but as of now the El Nino is being encroached with expanding cool waters. I’m new to this, but it appears El Nino will weaken from now on.
I don’t know that this has any significance, but my weather widget from WUWT is showing that CO2 went DOWN to 387.75 ppm last month. That is the first time I’ve seen it go down in the time I’ve been paying attention to this stuff. Any real significance to that?
REPLY: Normal variation, only a small drop from last month, negligible .25 PPM -A
Caleb (23:40:52) : said
In New Hampshire November was a blessing, after a cold October with two snowfalls scared my socks off. Concord, N.H. was +4.1 for November. after being -2.4 for October and -1.8 for September.
The warm November allowed me to get some important outside chores done.
I know some folk pray for cold weather, because cold and snow irritates the heck out Alarmists. However have some mercy on us old fools who farm. If you must pray, pray for snow on Copenhagen…
That is why this old fool moved out of the NH/MA area to NC. I HATE chipping ice out of my stock tanks and draining water hoses. I do not have heaters here as I did in NH. Even so I am praying for snow in Florida, California and Texas and a month long blizzard in Washington DC.
With luck Obama will get snowed in and they will not be able to chip him out until April.
Since Mother Nature seems to have a sense of humor perhaps we will get the snow we need to cool of the Global Warming hysteria.
Someone asked what this meant. These are all British Research Councils. Publicly funded bodies which channel research money. Sometimes they do the research themselves; sometimes it is done by, or in collaboration with, the universities. The most relevant one to climate science I would have thought was NERC (Natural Environment Research Council )
EPSRC=Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
ESRC=Economic and Social Research Council
RAL=Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (mainly high energy physics, technology and engineering); nowadays forms part of the STFC – Science and Technology Facilities Council – from its website:
However, when that email was written, RAL was part of CCLRC – Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils.
What it all means in this context (Climategate), I haven’t a clue 🙂
I’ll take all the tinfoil helmets you can locate ChasMod. Tin is a valuable commodity, and any time you can get your hands on some it is way better than Dollars; particularly paper dollars.
Now aluminum foil helmets; you can keep those.
From the UAH website:
From Nov. 16, 1978, through June 30, 2007, the global lower troposphere has warmed about 0.4 Celsius (about 0.72° Fahrenheit), or global warming at the rate of approximately 1.4 C (about 2.52° Fahrenheit) per century.
Most of the warming that accounts for that trend, however, has happened since January 1998 in the northernmost third of the globe.
There has been little or no net warming in the tropics over the past 28+ years, while there is very slight warming in the southernmost third of the globe.
While this warming is within the range of natural climate variation, some of the warming is consistent with human effects — especially warming in the coldest air over the Northern Hemisphere, according to Christy. “That cold air has very little water vapor in it, so if you add another greenhouse gas you have an opportunity to trap more heat.
“When you go to the tropics, where there’s lots of water vapor, the extra carbon dioxide doesn’t have as much effect. As a greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide’s greatest effect is in the driest, coldest places.”
apologies, slightly off topic…as theres NO contact ability.
check this out re antarctic warming/ozone waffle, and the comments are…classicly warmie
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/01/ozone-antarctica
now I would have thought ozone closing stopped the force of the suns rays a tad? so how the hell is it supposed to make it warmer?
and
the ice shelf is IN the water…so how? again would it make the sea rise? ie the ice in a glass doesnt change the level.
blondieBC (06:29:01) :
Does anyone know why Hudson bay is freezing slower than normal this year?
The whole 18 million square mile Arctic region on average is freezing slower, too. After a 2009 Arctic sea ice minimum that was ~1 million square miles greater than 2007 Arctic sea ice minimum & at times was close to the 2005 Arctic sea ice extent, the 2009 Arctic sea ice extent steadily reached & became less than the 2008 Arctic sea ice extent. 2009 Arctic sea ice extent steadily continued right over to the 2007 sea ice extent, too! Most times the 2007 sea ice extent has been a bit of a wall for later periods. But 2009 sea ice extent cut through & became less than the 2007 sea ice extent! Since then, 2009 sea ice extent has weaved itself around the 2007 sea ice extent.
Supposedly, north flowing winds from Siberia have delayed Arctic sea ice freezing north of Siberia.
2009 Arctic ice extent seems to be normal: click
But in any discussion of global warming/cooling, both hemispheres have to be considered. Antarctic ice cover is above average: click
for blondie bc.. umm maybe One reason is… there is a ruddy great volcanic vent somewhere up that way…
iceagenow.com has some clips of them happening, quite speccy:-)
and Ian Plimer also mentions theres one in antarctic area too, NO warmists mention that:-)
how…par for course.
This is likely too late to be read, but the post incorrectly identifies November 2004 as the previous record for a November UAH anomaly. Actually, the previous record was in November 2005, toward the end of the El Nino cycle that started in January 2005. Most of the monthly UAH records were set in the El Nino years of 1998 and 2005.