# Climategate: hide the decline – codified

WUWT blogging ally Ecotretas writes in to say that he has made a compendium of programming code segments that show comments by the programmer that suggest places where data may be corrected, modified, adjusted, or busted. Some the  HARRY_READ_ME comments are quite revealing. For those that don’t understand computer programming, don’t fret, the comments by the programmer tell the story quite well even if the code itself makes no sense to you.

To say that the CRU code might be “buggy” would be…well I’ll just let CRU’s programmer tell you in his own words.

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\oldprog\maps12.proFOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\oldprog\maps15.proFOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\oldprog\maps24.pro; Plots 24 yearly maps of calibrated (PCR-infilled or not) MXD reconstructions ; of growing season temperatures. Uses "corrected" MXD - but shouldn't usually ; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to 

; the real temperatures.

• FOIA\documents\harris-tree\recon_esper.pro; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass Esper et al. (2002) series, ; anomalies against full NH temperatures and other series. ; CALIBRATES IT AGAINST THE LAND-ONLY TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 20 N ; ; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid 

; the decline

• FOIA\documents\harris-tree\calibrate_nhrecon.pro; ; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid ; the decline that affects tree-ring density records) 

;

• FOIA\documents\harris-tree\recon1.pro

FOIA\documents\harris-tree\recon2.proFOIA\documents\harris-tree\recon_jones.pro;

 ; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1940 to avoid ; the decline 

;

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt17. Inserted debug statements into anomdtb.f90, discovered that a sum-of-squared variable is becoming very, very negative! Key output from the debug statements: (..) forrtl: error (75): floating point exception IOT trap (core dumped) ..so the data value is unbfeasibly large, but why does the 

sum-of-squares parameter OpTotSq go negative?!!

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt22. Right, time to stop pussyfooting around the niceties of Tim's labyrinthine software suites - let's have a go at producing CRU TS 3.0! since failing to do that will be the 

definitive failure of the entire project..

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txtgetting seriously fed up with the state of the Australian data. so many new stations have been introduced, so many false references.. so many changes that aren't documented. Every time a cloud forms I'm presented with a bewildering selection of similar-sounding sites, some with references, some with WMO codes, and some with both. And if I look up the station metadata with one of the local references, chances are the WMO code will be wrong (another station will have 

it) and the lat/lon will be wrong too.

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txtI am very sorry to report that the rest of the databases seem to be in nearly as poor a state as Australia was. There are hundreds if not thousands of pairs of dummy stations, one with no WMO and one with, usually overlapping and with the same station name and very similar coordinates. I know it could be old and new stations, but why such large overlaps if that's the case? Aarrggghhh! 

There truly is no end in sight.

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt28. With huge reluctance, I have dived into 'anomdtb' - and already I have 

that familiar Twilight Zone sensation.

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txtWrote 'makedtr.for' to tackle the thorny problem of the tmin and tmax databases not being kept in step. Sounds familiar, if worrying. am I the first person to attempt 

to get the CRU databases in working order?!!

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txtWell, dtr2cld is not the world's most complicated program. Wheras cloudreg is, and I immediately found a mistake! Scanning forward to 1951 was done with a loop that, for completely unfathomable reasons, didn't include months! So we read 50 grids instead of 600!!! That may have had something to do with it. I also noticed, as I was correcting THAT, that I reopened the DTR and CLD data files when I should have been opening the 

bloody station files!!

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txtBack to the gridding. I am seriously worried that our flagship gridded data product is produced by Delaunay triangulation - apparently linear as well. As far as I can see, this renders the station counts totally meaningless. It also means that we cannot say exactly how the gridded data is arrived at from a statistical perspective - since we're using an off-the-shelf product that isn't documented sufficiently to say that. Why this wasn't coded up in Fortran I don't know - time pressures perhaps? Was too much effort expended on homogenisation, that there wasn't enough time to write a gridding 

procedure? Of course, it's too late for me to fix it too. Meh.

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txtHere, the expected 1990-2003 period is MISSING - so the correlations aren't so hot! Yet the WMO codes and station names /locations are identical (or close). What the hell is 

supposed to happen here? Oh yeah - there is no 'supposed', I can make it up. So I have :-)

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txtWell, it's been a real day of revelations, never mind the week. This morning I discovered that proper angular weighted interpolation was coded into the IDL routine, but that its use was discouraged because it was slow! Aaarrrgghh. There is even an option to tri-grid at 0.1 degree resolution and then 'rebin' to 720x360 - also deprecated! And now, just before midnight (so it counts!), having gone back to the tmin/tmax work, I've found that most if not all of the Australian bulletin stations have been unceremoniously dumped into the files 

without the briefest check for existing stations.

• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txtAs we can see, even I'm cocking it up! Though recoverably. DTR, TMN and TMX need to be written as (i7.7)./code>
• FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txtOH FUCK THIS. It's Sunday evening, I've worked all weekend, and just when I thought it was done I'm hitting yet another problem that's based on the hopeless state of our databases. There is no uniform 

data integrity, it's just a catalogue of issues that continues to grow as they're found.

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\mxdgrid2ascii.proprintf,1,’Osborn et al. (2004) gridded reconstruction of warm-season’ printf,1,’(April-September) temperature anomalies (from the 1961-1990 mean).’ printf,1,’Reconstruction is based on tree-ring density records.’ printf,1 printf,1,’NOTE: recent decline in tree-ring density has been ARTIFICIALLY’ printf,1,’REMOVED to facilitate calibration. THEREFORE, post-1960 values’ printf,1,’will be much closer to observed temperatures then they should be,’ printf,1,’which will incorrectly imply the reconstruction is more skilful’ 

printf,1,’than it actually is. See Osborn et al. (2004).’

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\summer_modes\data4sweden.pro

FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\summer_modes\data4sweden.proprintf,1,'IMPORTANT NOTE:'

 printf,1,'The data after 1960 should not be used. The tree-ring density' printf,1,'records tend to show a decline after 1960 relative to the summer' printf,1,'temperature in many high-latitude locations. In this data set' printf,1,'this "decline" has been artificially removed in an ad-hoc way, and' printf,1,'this means that data after 1960 no longer represent tree-ring printf,1,'density variations, but have been modified to look more like the 

printf,1,'observed temperatures.'

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\combined_wavelet_col.pro; ; Remove missing data from start & end (end in 1960 due to decline) ; kl=where((yrmxd ge 1402) and (yrmxd le 1960),n) 

sst=prednh(kl)

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\mxd_pcr_localtemp.pro; Tries to reconstruct Apr-Sep temperatures, on a box-by-box basis, from the ; EOFs of the MXD data set. This is PCR, although PCs are used as predictors ; but not as predictands. This PCR-infilling must be done for a number of ; periods, with different EOFs for each period (due to different spatial ; coverage). *BUT* don’t do special PCR for the modern period (post-1976), ; since they won’t be used due to the decline/correction problem. ; Certain boxes that appear to reconstruct well are “manually” removed because 

; they are isolated and away from any trees.

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\briffa_sep98_d.pro;mknormal,yyy,timey,refperiod=[1881,1940] ; ; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!! ; yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904] valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor (...) ; ; APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION ; yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x)  densall=densall+yearlyadj • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\summer_modes\pl_decline.pro; ; Plots density ‘decline’ as a time series of the difference between ; temperature and density averaged over the region north of 50N, ; and an associated pattern in the difference field. ; The difference data set is computed using only boxes and years with ; both temperature and density in them – i.e., the grid changes in time. ; The pattern is computed by correlating and regressing the *filtered* ; time series against the unfiltered (or filtered) difference data set. ; ;*** MUST ALTER FUNCT_DECLINE.PRO TO MATCH THE COORDINATES OF THE  ; START OF THE DECLINE *** ALTER THIS EVERY TIME YOU CHANGE ANYTHING *** • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\oldprog\maps12.pro; ; Plots 24 yearly maps of calibrated (PCR-infilled or not) MXD reconstructions ; of growing season temperatures. Uses “corrected” MXD – but shouldn’t usually ; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to ; the real temperatures.  ; • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\oldprog\calibrate_correctmxd.pro; We have previously (calibrate_mxd.pro) calibrated the high-pass filtered ; MXD over 1911-1990, applied the calibration to unfiltered MXD data (which ; gives a zero mean over 1881-1960) after extending the calibration to boxes ; without temperature data (pl_calibmxd1.pro). We have identified and ; artificially removed (i.e. corrected) the decline in this calibrated ; data set. We now recalibrate this corrected calibrated dataset against ; the unfiltered 1911-1990 temperature data, and apply the same calibration  ; to the corrected and uncorrected calibrated MXD data. • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\summer_modes\calibrate_correctmxd.pro; No need to verify the correct and uncorrected versions, since these ; should be identical prior to 1920 or 1930 or whenever the decline  ; was corrected onwards from. • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree5\densplus188119602netcdf.pro; we know the file starts at yr 440, but we want nothing till 1400, so we ; can skill lines (1400-440)/10 + 1 header line ; we now want all lines (10 yr per line) from 1400 to 1980, which is ; (1980-1400)/10 + 1 lines (...) ; we know the file starts at yr 1070, but we want nothing till 1400, so we ; can skill lines (1400-1070)/10 + 1 header line ; we now want all lines (10 yr per line) from 1400 to 1991, which is  ; (1990-1400)/10 + 1 lines (since 1991 is on line beginning 1990) • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\oldprog\maps12.pro FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\oldprog\maps15.pro FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\oldprog\maps24.pro ; Plots 24 yearly maps of calibrated (PCR-infilled or not) MXD reconstructions  ; of growing season temperatures. Uses "corrected" MXD - but shouldn't usually ; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to  ; the real temperatures. • FOIA\documents\harris-tree\recon_esper.pro ; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass Esper et al. (2002) series,  ; anomalies against full NH temperatures and other series. ; CALIBRATES IT AGAINST THE LAND-ONLY TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 20 N ; ; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid  ; the decline • FOIA\documents\harris-tree\calibrate_nhrecon.pro ;  ; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid ; the decline that affects tree-ring density records)  ; • FOIA\documents\harris-tree\recon1.pro FOIA\documents\harris-tree\recon2.proFOIA\documents\harris-tree\recon_jones.pro ;  ; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1940 to avoid ; the decline  ; • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt 17. Inserted debug statements into anomdtb.f90, discovered that  a sum-of-squared variable is becoming very, very negative! Key output from the debug statements: (..) forrtl: error (75): floating point exception IOT trap (core dumped) ..so the data value is unbfeasibly large, but why does the  sum-of-squares parameter OpTotSq go negative?!! • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt 22. Right, time to stop pussyfooting around the niceties of Tim's labyrinthine software  suites - let's have a go at producing CRU TS 3.0! since failing to do that will be the  definitive failure of the entire project.. • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt getting seriously fed up with the state of the Australian data. so many new stations have been  introduced, so many false references.. so many changes that aren't documented. Every time a cloud forms I'm presented with a bewildering selection of similar-sounding sites, some with references, some with WMO codes, and some with both. And if I look up the station metadata with one of the local references, chances are the WMO code will be wrong (another station will have  it) and the lat/lon will be wrong too. • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt I am very sorry to report that the rest of the databases seem to be in nearly as poor a state as  Australia was. There are hundreds if not thousands of pairs of dummy stations, one with no WMO and one with, usually overlapping and with the same station name and very similar coordinates. I know it could be old and new stations, but why such large overlaps if that's the case? Aarrggghhh!  There truly is no end in sight. • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt 28. With huge reluctance, I have dived into 'anomdtb' - and already I have   that familiar Twilight Zone sensation. • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt Wrote 'makedtr.for' to tackle the thorny problem of the tmin and tmax databases not  being kept in step. Sounds familiar, if worrying. am I the first person to attempt  to get the CRU databases in working order?!! • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt Well, dtr2cld is not the world's most complicated program. Wheras cloudreg is, and I  immediately found a mistake! Scanning forward to 1951 was done with a loop that, for completely unfathomable reasons, didn't include months! So we read 50 grids instead of 600!!! That may have had something to do with it. I also noticed, as I was correcting THAT, that I reopened the DTR and CLD data files when I should have been opening the  bloody station files!! • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt Back to the gridding. I am seriously worried that our flagship gridded data product is produced by  Delaunay triangulation - apparently linear as well. As far as I can see, this renders the station counts totally meaningless. It also means that we cannot say exactly how the gridded data is arrived at from a statistical perspective - since we're using an off-the-shelf product that isn't documented sufficiently to say that. Why this wasn't coded up in Fortran I don't know - time pressures perhaps? Was too much effort expended on homogenisation, that there wasn't enough time to write a gridding  procedure? Of course, it's too late for me to fix it too. Meh. • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt Here, the expected 1990-2003 period is MISSING - so the correlations aren't so hot! Yet  the WMO codes and station names /locations are identical (or close). What the hell is  supposed to happen here? Oh yeah - there is no 'supposed', I can make it up. So I have :-) • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt Well, it's been a real day of revelations, never mind the week. This morning I  discovered that proper angular weighted interpolation was coded into the IDL routine, but that its use was discouraged because it was slow! Aaarrrgghh. There is even an option to tri-grid at 0.1 degree resolution and then 'rebin' to 720x360 - also deprecated! And now, just before midnight (so it counts!), having gone back to the tmin/tmax work, I've found that most if not all of the Australian bulletin stations have been unceremoniously dumped into the files  without the briefest check for existing stations. • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt As we can see, even I'm cocking it up! Though recoverably. DTR, TMN and TMX need to be written as (i7.7)./code> • FOIA\documents\HARRY_READ_ME.txt OH FUCK THIS. It's Sunday evening, I've worked all weekend, and just when I thought it was done I'm  hitting yet another problem that's based on the hopeless state of our databases. There is no uniform  data integrity, it's just a catalogue of issues that continues to grow as they're found. • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\mxdgrid2ascii.pro printf,1,’Osborn et al. (2004) gridded reconstruction of warm-season’  printf,1,’(April-September) temperature anomalies (from the 1961-1990 mean).’ printf,1,’Reconstruction is based on tree-ring density records.’ printf,1 printf,1,’NOTE: recent decline in tree-ring density has been ARTIFICIALLY’ printf,1,’REMOVED to facilitate calibration. THEREFORE, post-1960 values’ printf,1,’will be much closer to observed temperatures then they should be,’ printf,1,’which will incorrectly imply the reconstruction is more skilful’  printf,1,’than it actually is. See Osborn et al. (2004).’ • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\summer_modes\data4sweden.pro FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\summer_modes\data4sweden.pro printf,1,'IMPORTANT NOTE:'  printf,1,'The data after 1960 should not be used. The tree-ring density' printf,1,'records tend to show a decline after 1960 relative to the summer' printf,1,'temperature in many high-latitude locations. In this data set' printf,1,'this "decline" has been artificially removed in an ad-hoc way, and' printf,1,'this means that data after 1960 no longer represent tree-ring printf,1,'density variations, but have been modified to look more like the  printf,1,'observed temperatures.' • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\combined_wavelet_col.pro ;  ; Remove missing data from start & end (end in 1960 due to decline) ; kl=where((yrmxd ge 1402) and (yrmxd le 1960),n)  sst=prednh(kl) • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\mxd_pcr_localtemp.pro ; Tries to reconstruct Apr-Sep temperatures, on a box-by-box basis, from the  ; EOFs of the MXD data set. This is PCR, although PCs are used as predictors ; but not as predictands. This PCR-infilling must be done for a number of ; periods, with different EOFs for each period (due to different spatial ; coverage). *BUT* don’t do special PCR for the modern period (post-1976), ; since they won’t be used due to the decline/correction problem. ; Certain boxes that appear to reconstruct well are “manually” removed because  ; they are isolated and away from any trees. • FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\briffa_sep98_d.pro;mknormal,yyy,timey,refperiod=[1881,1940] ; ; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!! ; yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904] valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$ 2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor (...) ; ; APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION ; yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x) 

densall=densall+yearlyadj

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\summer_modes\pl_decline.pro

;

 ; Plots density ‘decline’ as a time series of the difference between ; temperature and density averaged over the region north of 50N, ; and an associated pattern in the difference field. ; The difference data set is computed using only boxes and years with ; both temperature and density in them – i.e., the grid changes in time. ; The pattern is computed by correlating and regressing the *filtered* ; time series against the unfiltered (or filtered) difference data set. ; ;*** MUST ALTER FUNCT_DECLINE.PRO TO MATCH THE COORDINATES OF THE 

; START OF THE DECLINE *** ALTER THIS EVERY TIME YOU CHANGE ANYTHING ***

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\oldprog\maps12.pro

;

 ; Plots 24 yearly maps of calibrated (PCR-infilled or not) MXD reconstructions ; of growing season temperatures. Uses “corrected” MXD – but shouldn’t usually ; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to ; the real temperatures. 

;

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\mann\oldprog\calibrate_correctmxd.pro

; We have previously (calibrate_mxd.pro) calibrated the high-pass filtered

 ; MXD over 1911-1990, applied the calibration to unfiltered MXD data (which ; gives a zero mean over 1881-1960) after extending the calibration to boxes ; without temperature data (pl_calibmxd1.pro). We have identified and ; artificially removed (i.e. corrected) the decline in this calibrated ; data set. We now recalibrate this corrected calibrated dataset against ; the unfiltered 1911-1990 temperature data, and apply the same calibration 

; to the corrected and uncorrected calibrated MXD data.

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\summer_modes\calibrate_correctmxd.pro

; No need to verify the correct and uncorrected versions, since these

 ; should be identical prior to 1920 or 1930 or whenever the decline 

; was corrected onwards from.

• FOIA\documents\osborn-tree5\densplus188119602netcdf.pro

; we know the file starts at yr 440, but we want nothing till 1400, so we

 ; can skill lines (1400-440)/10 + 1 header line ; we now want all lines (10 yr per line) from 1400 to 1980, which is ; (1980-1400)/10 + 1 lines (...) ; we know the file starts at yr 1070, but we want nothing till 1400, so we ; can skill lines (1400-1070)/10 + 1 header line ; we now want all lines (10 yr per line) from 1400 to 1991, which is 

; (1990-1400)/10 + 1 lines (since 1991 is on line beginning 1990)

Join 70-291 training program to pass 642-446 test plus get free practice files for next 70-643 exam.

0 0 vote
Article Rating
Inline Feedbacks
stan
November 25, 2009 9:06 am

It would be fun to have these guys under oath in a deposition with a lawyer who really understands code and an expert to consult. Bottom line — the code will be shown to be crap and the results were predetermined.

Phillip Bratby
November 25, 2009 9:07 am

It’s what’s known as a dog’s breakfast.

edward
November 25, 2009 9:13 am

Expose the code and bust the Anti-Trust Climate Team
I suggest that we offer Phil Jones the opportunity to run this code and produce his temperature “product” while the process is being videotaped and broadcast live publicly. He’ll be allowed a time period of perhaps 24 hours to replicate his “robust” temperature results without “fudging” then.
I would suggest the results would be “busted” rather than “robust”.
Shiny
Edward

K-Bob
November 25, 2009 9:14 am

Nice Tricks!!

hmmm
November 25, 2009 9:14 am

It’s almost as if whoever wrote these notes wanted us to find them.

Pieter F
November 25, 2009 9:16 am

It just gets better and better (worse for them, that is). The question remains: is this enough to overcome the momentum acquired by the AGW side since 2005? Senator Inhofe’s commitment to the skeptic’s cause and his ranking minority seat in the Environment and Public Works Committee looms large. But why won’t the mainstream media report on the matter?

November 25, 2009 9:16 am

Perhaps a simple question. Science is all about repeatability and it is quite clear from these programmers comments that the CRU was quite obviously “cooking the books”. So, it stands to reason, if we want a reasonably true temperature record for the globe, from now back to whenever, what would it take to do that? For the current temperature records pains would have to be made to either use only station data that is free of UHI effect, or (somehow) to figure out what the heat signature of each station is in relation to the rural surroundings, and use that as an offset of some kind. For temperature records of the past, why are trees used when they so obviously have a mixed signal (more things affect tree growth than simply temperature) instead of human writings – humans have been recording and reporting on temperature and climate for thousands of years.
What would it take to start over, and make a completely independent temperature record?

BOTO
November 25, 2009 9:17 am

Hi Anthony,
last dinner at Copenhagen!
I love it!
http://i47.tinypic.com/mrxszt.png

November 25, 2009 9:17 am

The last two lines stand out. I wonder what was shown in the data between the year 440 and 1400? Medieval Warm Period maybe??????

Jack
November 25, 2009 9:18 am

Karma is such a heinous bitch.

FredG
November 25, 2009 9:18 am

ouch… it’s worse than I thought!

Steve in SC
November 25, 2009 9:19 am

I believe they were using black powder not smokeless in that gun that was found.

Michael Alexis
November 25, 2009 9:20 am

Simplified code for CRU to use (from an average programmer with no climatology expertise):
For intYear = 1400 to 2009;
floatGlobalMeanTemerature = floatGlobalMeanTemperature + WHATEVER_THE_HELL_YOU_WANT_IT_TO_BE;
intYear++
next
Print “Holy Crap! We’re all going to die!”

John F. Hultquist
November 25, 2009 9:21 am

“a sum-of-squared variable is becoming very, very negative!”
This is an interesting “trick.” Has this issue been figured out yet? Buggy code is hard to unravel even when you are the one that wrote it, but if you don’t have it all and it is someone else’s code (maybe several others) the reason for this may not be discoverable. Did Harry ever figure it out?
“Delaunay triangulation” This seems to mean the code located points outside the region they should have been in, and, it was someone else’s poorly documented code (“off-the-shelf”) so Harry couldn’t figure out what it did or how.

Douglas DC
November 25, 2009 9:21 am

hmmm (09:14:27) :
It’s almost as if whoever wrote these notes wanted us to find them.
Positively Freudian.I know enough about programming though no expert,
just from my own limited experience the commands and data input are
to quote:” Crap crap ‘..

Obvious explanation
November 25, 2009 9:22 am

But gavin says we’re taking this out of context…..
bahahahaha!

Al Gore's Holy Hologram
November 25, 2009 9:23 am

Get better results by oursourcing the coding to medieval Timbuktu

Tim S.
November 25, 2009 9:23 am

“; we know the file starts at yr 1070, but we want nothing till 1400, so we”
Hide the MWP?

November 25, 2009 9:23 am

Oh dear, poor chap. I hope this doesn’t turn into a CLM for him (no, that’s not yet another climate acronym, it’s a programmer one: http://www.jargon.net/jargonfile/c/CLM.html)

Phillip Bratby
November 25, 2009 9:26 am

Apart from Harry, who was doing his best, these guys should be in jail. They knew exactly what the code was (or wasn’t) doing.
Harry spilled the beans.

November 25, 2009 9:26 am

Can there be any doubt that this trail of crumbs was laid deliberately? I think the identity of the whistleblower may be coming into focus.
However, it is curious that the coder makes no reference to brining the problems to the attention of Jones et al

dearieme
November 25, 2009 9:26 am

It’s not just drivel, it’s mendacious drivel.

gary gulrud
November 25, 2009 9:27 am

The pot of gold in Climategate. While we knew via Hansen’s scripts and Fortran77 something beyond incompetence, probably fraud, was afoot, Mann never released anything but McIntyre’s reconstructions are a strong indication of fraud.
This project file of commentary is the sort of file, only much larger, I’ve often used, maintaining old code I’d not developed originally. Usually it’s to establish hierarchies, patterns of attack, this file includes comments better placed in the files themselves, but gives every indication, to me, of authenticity.
The weight of the evidence following Climategate is inescapable.

Lazarus Long
November 25, 2009 9:27 am

“If you torture data sufficiently, it will confess to almost anything.”
-Fred Menger

George E. Smith
November 25, 2009 9:28 am

Totally amazing. I’m no programming expert; but I do routinely construct Optical system models for ray trace simulations; and even they require detailed comment of every element that is in the system, or else even months later, I cannot keep track of why the hell, I included some element. Now this is orders of magnitude more straight forward, than actually writing the code; but I certainly understand the concept that the comments better explain in plain English (and evidently include also some Australian terminology) so anyone can tell what it is supposed to do.
Well I have always believed that the failure to observe Nyquist in sampling strategies, was at the heart of this climate data inadequacy, and reading about all their ad hoc inclusions and exclusions of data sites; clearly shows what total BS they are cooking up.
And If I was paying the bills for that stuff; I would really like my money back, and also see some jail (gaol) time included in the correction process for the varmints purveying this rubbish as science data gathering.

Editor
November 25, 2009 9:29 am

In-bloody-credible! I’ve had to rework crappy code on occassion and discovered that you “can’t get there from here”. I sympathize with Harry. I can’t sympathize with the people who have foisted this garbage on us as “science”.

November 25, 2009 9:29 am

And yet the lap-dog press will continue to embargo the controversy, Obama will “get one more step closer to climate change legislation”, and the scientists (sic) will offer lame but “scientific” excuses.
Maybe the way to nail the bastards will be the old fashioned way, mail-fraud and IRS transgressions. I would imagine there has been snail-mail crimes of some sort , and I’m positive such large amounts of money led to some malfeasance on Mann’s and other’s part. This type of personality would never be clean in their persoanal lives while perpetrating such monumental fraud in academia.

November 25, 2009 9:30 am

I spent a decade or so as a professional programmer. Let’s just say that the excerpts revealed above would not have only gotten me fired, they would have gotten me blackballed and unable to work in the industry forever. And rightfully so.

November 25, 2009 9:31 am

Was the data that the code uses also released?
With the data, one could remove the fudge factors from the code and see what really comes out.
The tone of the comments do raise the question as to whether their author helped release the information.

chainpin
November 25, 2009 9:31 am

Data, I don’t need no stinking data!

Infowarrior
November 25, 2009 9:31 am

Having worked as a research assistant at Columbia University, the only thing that surprises me is the childish language and the tone of all the emails. Scholarship is corrupt to the core and that’s why I decided never to get a PHD.
The number one corruption is that no thesis is approved for research unless the research passes a political litmus test. Translation: Unless you already have a conclusion in mind that does not seriously detract from that of your colleagues, you have no hope of being published.
Now, I am published (only one paper), but it is in the field of Philosophical History, it did not require any grant money, and it passed the political litmus test among Orientalists detracting from those whose background ais Occidental. Translation: the paper is perceived as “progressive” so it is good to go.
Of course it’s a bad idea to base policy upon modern scholarship in highly controversial areas. Unless proposed research is designed to meet, substantiate, or reflect progressive ideals, you haven’t got a chance.
Mainstream scholarship in recent history has got some very obvious things dead wrong because of progressive politics. Just as we heard all the lies about imminent O-Zone disaster to racial integration increasing property value (believe what you will about the social merit of integration, the economic is quite obvious), they are wrong again about yet another one.
However, their arrogance is astonishing in the email and programming notes. It should be no surprise they fudge evidence and conclusions–that’s 95% of scholarship, where position is more important than the truth. The surprise is that they all seem to be knowingly complicit in deception and not care. Everyone whom I worked with believed their crap!

Obvious explanation
November 25, 2009 9:31 am

Context:
“ Around 1996, I became aware of how corrupt and ideologically driven current climate research can be. A major researcher working in the area of climate change confided in me that the factual record needed to be altered so that people would become alarmed over global warming. He said, “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.”
Dr. David Deming (University of Oklahoma)

J.Hansford
November 25, 2009 9:33 am

Oh, good lord!…. and these mob were given a grant of 13 million pounds of British taxpayers money to do climate science?
…. I think the only thing “done” here, was the British taxpayer. They were well and truly “done” over.:-(

November 25, 2009 9:33 am

Funny in that of all the text emails in the Zip file the night this got released, this is the file I read first. And kept reading. The comments looked to be pretty damning, but I wasn’t sure which “official” curve this program contributed to. If this was just a program for some obscure and not relied upon graph, it meant little. If this was something actively promoted by HadCRU then it’s a big deal.

SidViscous
November 25, 2009 9:33 am

“Somebody should Slashdot this, it is exactly the sort of thing the programming geeks there will understand and appreciate. They may also be able to provide valuable insight.”
I’ve been watching Slashdot for this story to come up, obviously this is just the sort of thing that SHOULD show up there.
It won’t. Slashdot is filled with pro AGW types, and controlled by them. I wouldn’t be surprised if it never show up there at all. Even the “science” section is glaringly silent on the issue.
Yes they are the type that would understand this, but for many it would mean exposing their preconceptions to themselves, and that won’t happen.
There is a reason why people will defend the crappy deal they got from a used car salesman.

jonk
November 25, 2009 9:34 am

Another paragraph from the Harry_Read_Me that inpires confidence:
“You can’t imagine what this has cost me – to actually allow the operator to assign false
WMO codes!! But what else is there in such situations? Especially when dealing with a ‘Master’
database of dubious provenance (which, er, they all are and always will be).
False codes will be obtained by multiplying the legitimate code (5 digits) by 100, then adding
1 at a time until a number is found with no matches in the database. THIS IS NOT PERFECT but as
there is no central repository for WMO codes – especially made-up ones – we’ll have to chance
duplicating one that’s present in one of the other databases. In any case, anyone comparing WMO
codes between databases – something I’ve studiously avoided doing except for tmin/tmax where I
had to – will be treating the false codes with suspicion anyway. Hopefully.”
This is like the train wreck that you don’t want to watch, but you can’t look away from.

Reed Coray
November 25, 2009 9:35 am

BOTO (09:17:11) :
Hi Anthony,
last dinner at Copenhagen!
I love it!
http://i47.tinypic.com/mrxszt.png

Great picture, but I have a question. Which one is Judas?

Robinson
November 25, 2009 9:35 am

What would it take to start over, and make a completely independent temperature record?

Judging by the state of the databases with a seemingly unmanaged history and no “method” in use to ensure integrity, it would be literally impossible to make sense of it all in a second pass. I now understand why they resist the release of code and data so strongly. It isn’t that they can’t, it’s that they’re just plain embarrassed by the hideous mess that would be exposed. I said “would”, I mean “has been”.

Michael
November 25, 2009 9:35 am

I know why Warmists deny global warming is not man-made. They are living in a Hollywood dream world and they can’t wake up.

Chris
November 25, 2009 9:36 am

My question is how the HARRY_READ_ME file fits into the greater scope of CRU’s data analysis. It’s not clear to me whether this was some side project for the programmer to analyze a problematic data subset or if this represents his frustrations with the main CRU data set. There is certainly a story here just don’t know if there are more chapters in this novel.

Hosco
November 25, 2009 9:36 am

If this isn’t enough to get MainStreamMedia to actually do their work – then I’ve lost any hope for humanity!

November 25, 2009 9:37 am

You know, I have asked at realclimate.org how they did software quality control. The post was censored ofcourse.
My guess is that they would not be able to verify their data/models/implementation, so that the operational verification would be something along the lines:
This output looks funny, this can’t be right. Lets look at the software and fix it.
Even without malice in complicated software this will lead to software that confirms what the scientist expects, because then it won’t look ‘funny’.
I wrote something along those lines at rc, and apparently it hit very close to the mark, because it was censored.

BOTO
November 25, 2009 9:37 am

Reed Coray (09:35:23) :
in my knewing, the one at the very right (your president…)

November 25, 2009 9:38 am

”22. Right, time to stop pussyfooting around the niceties of Tim’s labyrinthine software
suites – let’s have a go at producing CRU TS 3.0! since failing to do that will be the
definitive failure of the entire project..”
That will be Tim Osborne at a guess and Harry seems to think this manipulation of the data is vital for the ‘project’. The smoking gun is in the data, which is why they won’t give it up without a fight.

Mike
November 25, 2009 9:38 am

One should just run this code on some totally random data series and plot the output.

jamespapsdorf
November 25, 2009 9:40 am

Limbaugh tearing into Obama on the AGW Hoax !!!!
RUSH: Now we go over to the Universe of Lies. This afternoon, President Obama press conference with the Indian prime minister. Here’s a portion of Obama’s opening remarks.
OBAMA: We’ve made progress in confronting climate change. I commended the prime minister for India’s leadership in areas like green buildings and energy efficiency, and we agreed to a series of important new efforts: A clean energy initiative that will create jobs and improve people’s access to cleaner, more affordable energy; a green partnership to reduce poverty through sustainable and equitable development and an historic effort to phase out subsidies for fossil fuels. With just two weeks until the beginning of Copenhagen, it’s also essential that all countries do what is necessary to reach a strong operational agreement that will confront the threat of climate change while serving as a stepping-stone to a legally binding treaty.
RUSH: The president of the United States has just said in an internationally televised press conference that he is going to continue seeking a resolution to a problem that doesn’t exist. There is no man-made global warming. But it doesn’t matter because he exists in the Universe of Lies. And man-made global warming is only a means to an end to him. It is simply a way to once again chip away at the size of this country and the wealth of this country and to make sure that he is able to enact legislation that will allow him to raise everyone’s taxes so that he can begin even more redistribution of wealth. It’s just a mechanism like all liberal ideas are. They are dressed up in flowery, compassionate language to hide the deceit — the insidiousness — of their real intentions. This is mind-boggling, mind-boggling. It’s a hoax! It has been totally made up! It’s been known since Thursday. This is Tuesday.
The president of the United States, in an internationally televised press conference, says, “We gotta move further and we gotta get closer to Copenhagen with a working agreement. We gotta confront climate change.” There isn’t any! The whole concept of “climate change” is a fraud because climate “changes” constantly, and we’re not responsible for it. We don’t have that kind of power. We can’t do it! If somebody says, “Make it warmer tomorrow,” you can’t. If somebody says, “Make it colder tomorrow,” you can’t. If somebody says, “Make it rain tomorrow,” you can’t — and yet to listen to these people, we’re doing all of that and we’re doing it so fast that we are going to destroy our climate. It’s a hoax! It’s a fraud! There is no climate change. There is no global warming. There never has been any man-made global warming. How else can it be said?……..”.
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_112409/content/01125109.guest.html

M.A.DeLuca
November 25, 2009 9:40 am

If a physicist were to submit a paper without showing the math, that paper would (I assume) be rightly ridiculed and sent back with a “show your work” rebuke. It doesn’t seem right that one can hide one’s work in software, and then casually dismiss the absence of documented code upon submitting a paper as these yahoos have done. And yet, that seems exactly the way mainstream climatology works. Do any other sciences permit one to hide calculations in a program and then not publish said program with the paper?

Eric
November 25, 2009 9:40 am

This is just astonishing, and it’s evolving into a serious scandal.
I don’t think most of the public even realize that the computer code upon which these “models” are based isn’t revealed to other scientists for checks/verification/improvement. What’s UEA CRU’s basis for the validity of its predictions? “Trust us, we’re a really nice bunch of English climatologists”???

November 25, 2009 9:41 am

Is this real??????? hot stuff !!!!!!

November 25, 2009 9:43 am

Oops, forgot ‘)’ was valid a URL-char. http://www.jargon.net/jargonfile/c/CLM.html
Trying to look at some of this charitably: It does seem to me that the “fudging” of the decline was done to avoid the calibration of tree proxy to real temperature being thrown off by the known (but unexplained) divergence post 1960, rather than as a fudge to the dataset itself (although the results of that calibration set the offset of the result, of course). If there is a known problem with part of one dataset, it’s reasonable enough to ignore it when you’re trying to calibrate the good parts with something else. The real question (which I don’t know the answer to) is how good is the correlation in the bits that you do believe are comparable (i.e. 1850-1960)?
But even I, stretching my charitable nature to its limit, am pretty worried by the fact that he doesn’t believe in the core gridding algorithm, and the poor quality of the data seems to be all-pervasive, not just noise from a few bad stations. You can’t blame “Harry” for this – quite the opposite – but it does seem quite incredible that something of such huge importance should have been given so little resource and basic software project management for so long.

Vincent
November 25, 2009 9:43 am

It reminds me of Jones public statement:
“So apart from the removal of a few troublesome editors, blocking some FOI requests, deleting emails, blocking a few contrarians from publication, peer reviewing each others papers, cherry picking trees and modifying code to hide the decline: please tell me – exactly what is wrong with our science?”

Yertizz
November 25, 2009 9:44 am

Michael Alexis wrote:
Simplified code for CRU to use (from an average programmer with no climatology expertise):
For intYear = 1400 to 2009;
floatGlobalMeanTemerature = floatGlobalMeanTemperature + WHATEVER_THE_HELL_YOU_WANT_IT_TO_BE;
intYear++
next
Print “Holy Crap! We’re all going to die!”
Fell off my chair laughing!!!!!! No more, PLEASE, it HURTS!!!!!!!!!!

John N
November 25, 2009 9:45 am

Do we know what CRU “software” we are talking about here? The first comments seem to be for ten year old proxy reconstructions, and some of the later ones the temperature “product(s)”
Is there any relationship to, or does this provide any insight into GISS software? It seems that Phil Jones made some winking statement about the CRU temperature anomalies being remarkably similar to GISS, “as they should be” or something similar.
The programming is clearly bad and any output from the software described here would have to be questionable. However, it is very difficult to assess risk and estimate error without knowing which software has problems and for what it is currently used (or which AGM dogmas it supports.)

TerryS
November 25, 2009 9:45 am

Looking at the various values for valadj and they way they are applied its appears that they always lower the values (whatever they are) for the period 1930 to 1955 and increase them for the period 1955 to 1999. I wonder why.

Editor
November 25, 2009 9:45 am

Two interesting coder notes in HARRY_READ_ME.txt are:
“This still meant an awful lot of encounters with naughty Master stations, when really I suspect nobody else gives a hoot about. So with a somewhat cynical shrug, I added the nuclear option – to match every WMO possible, and turn the rest into new stations (er, CLIMAT excepted). In other words, what CRU usually do. It will allow bad databases to pass unnoticed, and good databases to become bad, but I really don’t think people care enough to fix ‘em, and it’s the main reason the project is nearly a year late.”
“You can’t imagine what this has cost me – to actually allow the operator to assign false WMO codes!! But what else is there in such situations? Especially when dealing with a ‘Master’ database of dubious provenance (which, er, they all are and always will be).”

Jaye
November 25, 2009 9:46 am

This is pretty funny
REPLY: on the main WUWT page

PiperPaul
November 25, 2009 9:49 am
Skeptic Tank
November 25, 2009 9:49 am

This is not some random crack from the outside. This is almost certainly an inside leak. 61 Mb is nothing. The probability that any 61 Mb of data, pulled off a file or email server, containing this much salient and inculpatory information is virtually nil.
This data was selected by someone who knew what they were doing, what to look for and where to find it.

J.Hansford
November 25, 2009 9:49 am

Chris (09:36:01) :
My question is how the HARRY_READ_ME file fits into the greater scope of CRU’s data analysis. It’s not clear to me whether this was some side project for the programmer to analyze a problematic data subset or if this represents his frustrations with the main CRU data set. There is certainly a story here just don’t know if there are more chapters in this novel.
—————————————————–
Well that’s a simple problem to solve then….. Just send CRU a FOI request for the data and meta data and check it out;-)

November 25, 2009 9:51 am

O.T. but:
Did you know that the BBC held a secret meeting that decided NOT to give balanced time to GW and anti-GW viewpoints. Apparently, the communique said:
“The BBC has held a high-level seminar with some of the best scientific experts, and has come to the view that the weight of evidence no longer justifies equal space being given to the opponents of the consensus.”
http://burningourmoney.blogspot.com/2007/06/bbc-bias.html
.

rbateman
November 25, 2009 9:51 am

James Hastings-Trew (09:16:45) :
If you have looked at the massive differences between the timespans quoted in HARRY_READ_ME.txt stations like Elko, NV / Charleston, SC / Red Bluff, CA (and dozens of other sites) and what exists today, it’s going to take years to recover, providing that original submitted paper forms have NOT been destroyed.
It’s going to have to be done. Too much damage has occured, and the digital databases are not to be trusted.
Do you (or anyone else for that matter) personally know where the original paper forms submitted are kept?
And where to obtain a legitimate copy of Tom Karl’s 1990 USHCN database?

Ron de Haan
November 25, 2009 9:51 am

[snip]
“These huckstering snake-oil salesmen and “global warming” profiteers — for that is what they are — have written to each other encouraging the destruction of data that had been lawfully requested under the Freedom of Information Act in the UK by scientists who wanted to check whether their global temperature record had been properly compiled. And that procurement of data destruction, as they are about to find out to their cost, is a criminal offense. They are not merely bad scientists — they are crooks. And crooks who have perpetrated their crimes at the expense of British and U.S. taxpayers”. (Lord Monckton)

Alvin
November 25, 2009 9:51 am

SIR, American Thinker tied these events to ACORN in their article today. http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/acorning_the_climate_change_mo.html

Robinson
November 25, 2009 9:52 am

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this isn’t actually model’ code. It’s code for producing the temperature record. The model code must look even worse given the nature of its inherent complexity.

November 25, 2009 9:52 am

All I can say it, WOW. The way in which this programmer commented his work makes me think that he was somewhat frustraded with the fraud that he was being ask to commit. Really, we are now past the point of scientific debate. The skeptics need to have some good lawyers in their camp to help resolve some of these issues. Without taking these people to court, they are simply not going to come clean about what they have been doing.

Chris
November 25, 2009 9:54 am

Gee, I wonder what the GISS data sets are like? Since they won’t release them, despite an FOI request, it makes you wonder.

hitfan
November 25, 2009 9:54 am

I used to sincerely believe in the global warming theory. But one thing that’s troubled me in the past few years were the shrill responses to skepticism regarding it.
Now, I’m not a scientist by profession–but shouldn’t there be room for debate in discussing the following counter arguments:
1. Correlation does not prove causation
2. A true independent, critical peer review
From a brief cursory reading of these emails, it sounds to be like the head of research wants to make the collected data fit the hypothesis.
It’s human nature to be biased and partisan. I wonder if it could be possible to collect the raw data and have it examined by qualified people with no ideological axe to grind–and let the chips fall where they may?
What the global warming proponents want to do is redesign our entire economic system and create layers and layers of bureaucracy in order to regulate almost every aspect of our lives.
I believe in being good custodians of our planet and the environment of course. It is a good thing to eliminate pollutants that are proven to be harmful. As far as CO2 goes, nothing has been proven yet.

K
November 25, 2009 9:54 am

I’ve done programming in a scientific research environment using large codes to do computational physics. All programs had to be well organized, debugged and verified by more than one researcher/grad student . They were also highly commented and even have descriptive documents on the side. Those procedures were absolutely necessary to keep everything in line and to eliminate mistakes, which are easy to make when the machinery is so complex.
If the Harry file is any indication, then I’d say they results from these programs can’t be considered as professional level science at all.

J.Ferg
November 25, 2009 9:55 am

Been looking into the code and data held in the \documents\cru-code\f77\mnew directory. Here is what I have found:
The data sets are master.dat.com, master.src.com. master.src.com is the important file. Don’t open these without changing the extension to .txt otherwise Windows interprets them as executables, and you won’t be able to view them properly anyway. Could send copies capable of being opened in Windows. These contain monthly weather station data with one row per year. I don’t know the exact nature of these files, but some of the data does relate to sunlight duration. A site in Finland suggests master.src.com is temperature related, but there’s a lot of speculation flying around the Internet regarding the leaked files at the moment, so can’t be certain.
There are 3526 stations in all and 2578488 monthly observations. -9999 in a field means the observation for that month is absent. There are 269172 (10%) missing observations in master.dat.com and 14226 complete missing years. The programs are designed to completely ignore any years with no observations. In total there are 200649 rows (years) of observations which should equate to 2407788 months, however due to some years having up to 11 missing months there are 2309316 monthly observations used. Now what’s interesting is how these missing months are processed. Programs such as split2.f, where a year contains one or more missing months actually invents the figures using the following heuristic
If a month is missing try to infill using duplicate. if duplicates both have data, then takes a weighted average, with weights defined according to inverse of length of record (1/N)
That’s from the comment at the start of split2.f
What this really means is more than 4% of the data is being completely fabricated by at least some of the Fortran data processing programs. If this were done in other disciplines this would be extremely questionable.
Also did notice quite a few programs, especially in the documents\cru-code\idl\pro directory are designed to process data deemed anomalous, though this isn’t necessarily suspicious.
This is the header comment from documents\cru-code\idl\pro\quick_interp_tdm2.pro
; runs Idl trigrid interpolation of anomaly files plus synthetic anomaly grids
; first reads in anomaly file data
; the adds dummy gridpoints that are
; further than distance (dist)
; from any of the observed data
; TDM: the dummy grid points default to zero, but if the synth_prefix files are present in call,
; the synthetic data from these grids are read in and used instead
What is ‘synthetic data’ and why might it be applied to dummy gridpoints away from genuine observation points? This could be a recognised statistical procedure, or data massaging, or creating more observations out of thin air to skew certainty levels, just can’t tell and don’t have time to look at anything else in depth right now. Like it says, e-mails can be open to interpretation but it’s the code and what it does to the raw data which really matters. The comment in the Mann code described in the link below is a work-around to a recognised issue with dendrochronology data. During 1960s the correlation coefficient between tree growth rate and temperature altered.
The recent ERBE results are really significant, the discrepancy between IPCC modelled values and the real world figures is quite something.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/22/cru-emails-may-be-open-to-interpretation-but-commented-code-by-the-programmer-tells-the-real-story/

tucker
November 25, 2009 9:55 am

It appears that the barbarians are closing in on Dr Mann’s castle. He appears to be damaged goods now.
http://www.mcall.com/news/all-a1_5warming.7097398nov25,0,5616440.story

BOTO
November 25, 2009 9:56 am

“Judas” is at the very right…
http://i49.tinypic.com/2gy8w9v.jpg

TJ
November 25, 2009 9:57 am

Sorry, but Slashdot will not be of much help. They have become so liberal over at Slashdot that they have drunk the global warming koolaid by the gallon.
REPLY: They did carry the initial hacking story, I don’t see why they would not carry this.

November 25, 2009 9:57 am

In electrical engineering, any unique code used is included in the methods portion.
Because engineers expect to be able to investigate each others’ claims, instead of letting them be hidden in software black boxes.
Of course, that is engineering, not “science”.

Henry chance
November 25, 2009 9:58 am

“OH *UCK THIS. It’s Sunday evening, I’ve worked all weekend, and just when I thought it was done I’m
hitting yet another problem that’s based on the hopeless state of our databases. There is no uniform
data integrity, it’s just a catalogue of issues that continues to grow as they’re found.”
So this tells us what the quality of the data is
We ahve already shown how Mannn uses the guesses from one tree’s rings to over rule a set of global temperature means.
This is more like voodoo and palm reading than science.
I am so not surprised at his use of “weights” to strengthen samples that fit the dogma.

Lichanos
November 25, 2009 9:58 am

Back to the gridding. I am seriously worried that our flagship gridded data product is produced by Delaunay triangulation – apparently linear as well. As far as I can see, this renders the station…
Well, this brings me back to a question I asked here a long time ago: how is average global temperature calculated? Somebody replied, “It’s called gridding.”
This happens to be something I know a bit about through my GIS work. Delauney triangulation (TIN production) would be the last thing I would expect them to use for this sort of a model. Anyway, one must peek into the code to see how the sausage is made, no?
Think about all those attractive colorful thematic maps of the globe, all gridded…

J.Hansford
November 25, 2009 9:58 am

It’s actually quite entertaining to read the programmers notes while playing M4GW’s “Hide the Decline (hide the decline), in the background.
….. it stops you from crying.

Ron de Haan
November 25, 2009 10:00 am

Will there be a Congressional Investigation?
Comment by JamesD
Wednesday, 25 Nov 09 @ 12:24 PM
There will be no investigations with a Democrat congress. No committee chairman will allow it. I hope some of the heavyweight scientists will come to the defense of scientific integrity but I’m not holding my breath. For a long time this naked emperor has been parading down the street. The press and, particularly, the educated public all agree, he’s wearing a fine suit of clothes.
http://carboneconomy.economist.com/
http://carboneconomy.economist.com/content/programme

JCS
November 25, 2009 10:01 am

Steve Gavin at RealClimate has refused more than 6 times to post the following message, are you willing to present this very important point for me?
JCS says:
25 November 2009 at 12:58 PM
Gavin,
I have repeatedly tried to post comments on your website asking you to respond to the following statement:
If the first rule of science is to question everything, and another fundamental rule is that no hypothesis can be proven true, regardless of imposing the precautionary principle, why is the first rule and another fundamental rule being discarded, and any SCIENTIST (SKEPTIC) vilified or or censored for practicing what can only be considered good science.
I am a Climate scientist with a degree in applied science wildlife biology and a masters in climate change and sustainability and I am not convinced by anything I have read, seen, studied or experimented that there is a definitive correlation between CO2/Greenhouse gases and climate variability.
Also I have read much of this information from this hack/screw up/whatever and I clearly see what i would consider malpractice and unethical collusion. Particularly in the case where advice is given in ways to avoid taxes, data has been significantly fudged, code is manipulated and peer review process stacked (more so than usual).
I believe in Climate Variability, I also believe that humans as a whole cause irreparable environmental harm to the planet, however I am skeptical of the hypothesis that is Anthropogenic Climate Change and believe that more research and a more open and debatable approach needs to be undertaken to achieve real results in understanding this. Why is this wrong and why are so many other skeptics with the same opinion vilified and persecuted. Why have you censored more than 6 previous posts I attempted to put up on this topic.
Can you not see how this topic risks the credibility of science as a whole!!!!!!

Bernie
November 25, 2009 10:01 am

Eric (09:40:29) :
In fairness that is too general a statement. It is important to be precise and specific, otherwise folks at RealClimate who actually really know their stuff will simply rip you to shreds. Certain critical pieces of station data have been requested. Certain pieces of code have been requested. More generally, authors of cliamte science research papers have been asked to post their raw data and their code in a way that will allow a complete replication of their results by interested third parties. It is the Institutional and individual refusal to do these simple things that has caused the questioning of the motives of climate scientists in general.

Mark Wagner
November 25, 2009 10:01 am

I don’t have to be a programmer to understand this:
The tree-ring density’
printf,1,’records tend to show a decline after 1960 relative to the summer’
printf,1,’temperature in many high-latitude locations. In this data set’
printf,1,’this “decline” has been artificially removed in an ad-hoc way, and’
printf,1,’this means that data after 1960 no longer represent tree-ring
printf,1,’density variations, but have been modified to look more like the
printf,1,’observed temperatures.’
they have committed fraud. plain and simple.
meanwhile, I note that Washington Post and WSJ have picked up the story, reporting not “it’s taken out of context,” but rather “it’s starting too look like they manufactured the data.” There is yet hope that MSM will take it up and run with it.
for, even though MSM is firmly in the AGW camp, they will not be able to resist a juicy expose. Juicy makes ratings and sells advertising. They will ignore that they have been made fools.

Jonny B. Good
November 25, 2009 10:04 am

How do know that the HARRY_READ_ME.txt file and the data he’s working on represents the official temperature ouput of CRU?
Maybe he is put to work on a special dataset tha has been corrupted somehow?
Surly there is more than only 1 guy doing this stuff at CRU??

November 25, 2009 10:05 am

hmmm (09:14:27) :
It’s almost as if whoever wrote these notes wanted us to find them.

Completely missed the point; these were entered/typed up AS the code was being written/debugged/maintained/retrofitted.
It is almost obvious you have never ‘coded’.
.
.

November 25, 2009 10:07 am

Here is the output of some code from a Briffa related file. If you run a flat temperature graph through it if gives a Hockey Stick. If you run an inconveniently divergent tree ring graph through it, it acts as a trick to hide the decline.
http://i49.tinypic.com/m9vcxv.jpg

Leon Brozyna
November 25, 2009 10:08 am

In reading through this … stuff … I found my mind seemed to be stuck in a goto loop, continuously replaying that YouTube video — “Hide the decline … hide the decline”.
And then I come to this gem —
What the hell is supposed to happen here? Oh yeah – there is no ‘supposed’, I can make it up. So I have 🙂
This is what happens when you approach a problem with a preconceived belief system in place describing what’s happening. Data doesn’t conform to your belief? No problem – fix it so the problem goes away.

Paul
November 25, 2009 10:08 am

Sounds like they have some real PEBKAC errors over there. That is Problem Exists Between Keyboard and Chair.

Editor
November 25, 2009 10:09 am

hmmm (09:14:27) :
> It’s almost as if whoever wrote these notes wanted us to find them.
I disagree, though he is writing for future readers.. Faced with the same morass I likely would have kept something similar to Poor Harry’s Dairy. It would be useful to my manager to help chase after the data providers and document what I had been doing for the next performance review. It would be useful to me as something to refer to when faced with those “I thought I fixed that already” moments (there’s at least one of those comments in his diary). And it would be useful to cram down the original authors’ throats someday.
For a system this complicated, it’s difficult to keep some of the system issues straight in the comments, another reason it’s worthwhile to have a separate document. (Ideally that would be a design specification, but none came with the code. When porting software like this, I generally follow a start with the first things that need to run, end with the things that pull it all together. In the future I’m going add a pass to scan through everything and try to get a sense of what it does. That was my starting point decades ago, but with experience and skill, programmers can develop a “disdain” for the whole and can quickly find their way to the core problems. fortunately I’ve never had to work on something as much a mess as this.)

Jean Bosseler
November 25, 2009 10:10 am

Hilarious:
‘discovered that a sum-of-squared variable is becoming very, very negative!’
Don’t they know ‘ i ‘ ??? imaginary as some theories?
For Europe the subject is less that hilarious!
Schellnhuber is the adviser of Kanzlerin Merkel and of the President of the European Commission Barroso!
A position with extreme power.
Now look at his writings, with Mann, Schneider,Rahmstorf and others, very recent:
http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/
and on the reports in the media:
http://www.n-tv.de/politik/dossier/Noch-gibt-es-Hoffnung-article79835.html
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,663045,00.html

NK
November 25, 2009 10:11 am

Anthony–
can’t express the gratitude we all owe you for pulling these programmer comments out of the code, so revealing. Question– the ‘FOI’ header, where did they come from? what do they signify?

sunday
November 25, 2009 10:12 am

I did some numerical coding for my MSc-equivalent thesis, and in theory is possible to obtain a negative number by the addition of positive ones if the total is large enough to overflow, and the most significative bit of the mantissa is the sign bit, with the value of 1 for negative numbers. With those conditions, an untreated overflow would cause negative numbers.
If the code does not treat that, the results are no good. The solution is the use of data types with more bytes, and some studies about the numerical stability of the algorithms employed is a must. However, it’s amazing that such a newbie error could be made in one of the most prestigious research institutions, so another explanation could be possible. We did not find this problem in our work because we used algorithms that we knew stable with the sets of data employed. Normalization of data also helped 🙂
However, it amazes me that a organization with so much at stake in numbers did not get some basic reference texts* and had to resort to search for algorithms to calculate distances across Great Circles in Wikipedia!
* Such as this, edited in 1992: http://www.amazon.com/Numerical-Recipes-FORTRAN-Scientific-Computing/dp/052143064X

Dean
November 25, 2009 10:12 am

Maybe it’s time to GPL the codes… Make them a true public venture where everyone can see what’s being done.

davidncl
November 25, 2009 10:12 am

No rob it’s not hot stuff. No one cares. Outside this narrow little circle of people who care about truth nobody give a f—
AGW plays to some sort of primitive pre-rational impuse or mythic structures that some people have … and that’s it. There’s no science here. Just stories.
Expect green taxes. No nuclear power stations. Shutting down the coal fired stations we do have.
“My three main goals would be to reduce human population to
about 100 million worldwide, destroy the industrial infrastructure
and see wilderness, with it’s full complement of species,
returning throughout the world.”
-Dave Foreman,
co-founder of Earth First!
More here The Green Agenda
The warmists are essentially the forces of the counter-enlightenment – quite literally the people who want to put the lights out. Do you think they’ll be swayed by truth?

Paul
November 25, 2009 10:12 am

I keep seeing this line in the code;
; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures.

but what does it actually mean?
Observed Temperatures?
Homogenized Temperatures?
Fudge Factor Temperatures?
Not really sure what to make of this statement as yet…

CodeMonkey
November 25, 2009 10:13 am

Having been a developer for 25 years (I’ve written a fair amount of Fortran code), I can sympathize with the programmer. He’s been asked to produce consistent output that appears plausible from a train wreck of ratty source data collections. The collections don’t agree where they overlap, so he’s been told which ones to use over which time periods using what appears (to him) to be a completely arbitrary basis; to make it all fit together he has to “fudge” the numbers and write code to handle each set differently. It’s as if he’s been asked to generate the data for a bank’s corporate tax return using checkbook register copies obtained from customers and the bank’s stock price for the last year, along with general ledger entries from three different internal accounting systems. The results of his efforts are then to be used at the annual shareholder’s meeting in two week’s time, and if they’re wrong, the CEO will make him the fall guy.
Programmers are normally a meticulous bunch, and this is a programmer complaining bitterly about the crap he’s been handed. Further, he’s upset that he’s been asked to produce plausible results in short order by people who as scientists are supposed to care about accuracy as much as he does, but clearly don’t care in this situation so long as the results come out looking like what they want to see. His notes clearly indicate that he wants everyone to know what he was facing and what sort of shenanigans had to be done to make it all look good.
What the public is finally getting to see is just how inconsistent and error-prone all the source data is and just how much manipulation is going on behind the scenes. Everyone has been led to believe that the measurement data sets are pristine, accurate and from data sources shown to be reliable. It’s assumed they are good enough to be used to make decisions that affect millions of people and cost billions of dollars. What public is now seeing is a real shock, and people are coming to a common sense conclusion: The data is crap, and the results can’t be trusted at all.
I feel for the programmer….I would not want to be in his shoes.

marc
November 25, 2009 10:15 am
Cassandra King
November 25, 2009 10:15 am

The ‘science’ behind the AAM narrative can now be seen clearly for what it is a cloak to conceal the true intentions of the political classes.
I suppose the false cloak of science was only meant to cover the political aims until the point had been reached when the political narrative no longer needed a cloak to hide behind.
The BBC.
The university of East Anglia.
The climatic research unit.
The UK meteorological office(met office).
The US link being the Goddard institute of space sciences(GISS).
All of these institutions are involved in the scandal to at least some extent in the scandal and by some strange coincidence all of them are fanatical believers in and supporters of the AAM narrative, they report the science as settled and beyond doubt, they indulge in attacking sceptical scientists and flout the rules when it suits them, they feel they are above reproach and audit perhaps because they have powerful friends?
Of all the world reach media platforms the BBC has been perhaps the most fanatical in peddling the anti CO2 anti capitalist anti industrial anti free market stories of the ‘eco industry’ it has used its nearly unlimited resources to provide a tsunami of supposed evidence however thin and patchy using state of the art visual manipulation and using the propaganda arts to full effect. The link to all of them is money and/or political affiliation, they are a closed loop of interconnected people with a common agenda showing the arrogance of those who know they have friends in high places, powerful and influential allies.
In attacking the fake cloak of science we are in fact not directly attacking the puppet masters driving the entire narrative, like a bull attacking the matadors cloak? The political forces need this sea change in our civilisation and they feel that they cannot be open and honest with us about the reasons for the required changes so they cover it in lies to hide it. Whatever the real reasons for the massive reordering of our entire civilisation are I suspect that AAM is not one of them.
To get at the truth we must expose the entire chain and the links in that chain, the political classes are moving fast now, faster than perhaps they expected to move because the foundations of their scam ie a warming planet is not happening, without the cloak of fake science to cover it the real movers are exposed for the world to see, if the political classes refuse to alter their policies when the science is exposed as fraudulent we will know who is behind the cloak.

JWDougherty
November 25, 2009 10:15 am

John F. Hultquist (09:21:16) :
‘“a sum-of-squared variable is becoming very, very negative!”
This is an interesting “trick.”…. ‘
I had this happen using a common spreadsheet – which shall remain unnamed here – several years ago. I no longer use any spreadsheet for any serious numbers. Under and overflow conditions can occasionally break things. Commercial programs are particularly poor at documenting such things, and worse at fixing them.
On another note, the QC on the climate history data “Harry” is trying to work with is terrible. Whoever was responsible for supervising the primary data entry should have been running consistency checks, possibly every day, before forwarding it to Hadley or where ever. This is particularly important if the data is keyed from written records. Typos, misreadings etc. can creep in, and often, due to the character of the data recording methods, no useful filters can be employed to catch subtle errors during the entry process (e.g. instead of a proper data entry system the data was keyed into a spreadsheet line by line) – and Harry obviously is trying to deal with such ugly data.

John J.
November 25, 2009 10:16 am

OMG! The sum of squares parameter going negative? This isn’t possible! Even if all computed values from the model deviate negatively from the actual data, the squares of these numbers are positive values and thus the sum of squares is always positive.
I had a similar problem fitting titration data back in graduate school where the fitting statistics weren’t working out. It turned out I had coded in an incorrect equation for a derivative, neglecting to multiply by ln(2) in one line out of a thousand lines of code. It was plainly obvious something was wrong with my model from output plots, but wasn’t obvious in the code.
I feel for the programmer, but it’s his job to straighten out glaring problems, particularly when the output is a mathematical impossibility.

Hysteria
November 25, 2009 10:19 am

jamespapsdorf(09:40:10)
the probelm is that quoting Limbaugh, Beck et al will get us no-where – far too easy to dismiss them as politically motivated, and they have no credibility in around 50% of the population (in the USA) and of course a much lower number globally (remember – this is a global issue)
No – I think the solution to this is independant review as called for by Lawson in the UK and I understand one of the Senators in the US.
Attack with facts, deconstruct the code issues and eventually the MSM might, just might, start to run with it.
My opinion – for what its worth – I think we are too late.

Yertizz
November 25, 2009 10:21 am

ralph (09:51:07) : writes:
O.T. but:
Did you know that the BBC held a secret meeting that decided NOT to give balanced time to GW and anti-GW viewpoints. Apparently, the communique said:
“The BBC has held a high-level seminar with some of the best scientific experts, and has come to the view that the weight of evidence no longer justifies equal space being given to the opponents of the consensus.”
This is only partly correct, my friend.
For over 3 years I have been trying to elicit answers from both Mark Thompson (Director General) and Sir Michael Lyons (Trust Chairman). All I had received was sophistry and obfuscation, until I engaged the help of my MP.
Recently it came to light that a report had been commissioned in June 2007 jointly by the Trust and BBC Board of Management entitled “From Seesaw to Wagon Wheel-Safeguarding Impartiality in the 21st Century”. It concluded: ‘There may be now a broad scientific consensus that climate change is definitely happening and that it is at least predominantly man-made… the weight of evidence no longer justifies equal space being given to the opponents of the consensus’.
(SO THEY HAVEN’T EVEN TRIED TO MAKE A SECRET OF THIS…JUST SHOWS THEIR ARROGANCE!)
Despite this damning evidence from their own report, they steadfastly cling to the belief that their impartiality is intact as required by the BBC Charter. Such is their state of denial that Sir Michael Lyons has even tried to deliberately mislead my MP despite evidence I have to the contrary.
In light of this I have posed the question, through my MP: “On whose authority did the BBC cease to be an impartial Public Service Broadcaster, as required by its Charter, and become the judge, jury and sponsor of such dangerously specious political dogma so eloquently described as ‘…the consensus…’?
Answer comes there none! I believe it is time for the BBC to be subjected to an enquiry on this matter.

Henry chance
November 25, 2009 10:21 am

JCS (10:01:28) :
Steve Gavin at RealClimate has refused more than 6 times to post the following message, are you willing to present this very important point for me?
JCS says:
25 November 2009 at 12:58 PM
Gavin,
I have repeatedly tried to post comments on your website asking you to respond to the following statement:
If the first rule of science is to question everything, and another fundamental rule is that no hypothesis can be proven true, regardless of imposing the precautionary principle, why is the first rule and another fundamental rule being discarded, and
XXXXXXX
Real climate says all comments are shut off for 2 days. The adverse comments outnumber the puff comments 10:1. It looks like the outrage is being posted over there.
CEI has sued Schmidt, Gavin for working on the blog instead of doing NASA work. There are years of FOIA requests in the que at NASA GISS that wait being released.
Just to be graphic, Gavin schmidt is pimpin’ global warming when he is not doing work he is paid to do.
Human Resource managers have a problem when people are on the job and doing work for themselves. Earlier a mod named “eric” was doing all the comments and then they shut down. Yesterday Gavin posted a request for someone to volunteer to help.

Charlie
November 25, 2009 10:21 am

The blog post should distinguish between the various bits of code.
The stuff in folders like osborn-tree6\mann and harris-tree\recon1.pro and osborn-tree6\mann are most likely programs used to generate things for peer-reviewed articles.
This is quite different and distinct from the code used to produce the HADCRUT3 temperature series. I am not postive, but it does appear that the HARRY_READ_ME.txt file is about the “CRU Code” as most of us would interpret it — the code used to produce the HADCRUT temperature record.

JP
November 25, 2009 10:22 am

I am a bit worried, though. Nothing is showing in the MSM. The folks at RC seem to be moving on as if nothing happened. It’s almost as if they have all agreed to never speak of it again. The only ones discussing this are us and the likes of Glenn Beck, Limbaugh. This reminds me of “1984”, a surreal situation where everybody knows the truth but everybody pretends that they don’t and keep on shouting that the world is going to burn. I cannot believe that such an opportunity to kill the AGW theory is just going away as if it never happened.
What is going on?, is the world mad, or are we?

Statistics sans Frontières
November 25, 2009 10:24 am

Re. the “sum-of-squared variable is becoming very, very negative”.
I’d imagine that was due to an overflow.
For the non-programmer folks; there are various data types that can be used to represent numbers (signed integer, unsigned integer, float, double etc.) but they aren’t capable of representing arbitrarily large numbers. If you exceed the limit, you generally end up with a negative number of the same magnitude.
i.e. MAX_NUMBER + 1 -> -(MAX_NUMBER + 1)
The fix is simply to use a type that allows larger numbers.

Arn Riewe
November 25, 2009 10:27 am

Obvious explanation (09:22:20) :
“But gavin says we’re taking this out of context…..”
I’m amused by the use of the king of spin to explain away the “inconvenient truths”. It’s sort of like asking the fox if he knows what the commotion in the henhouse was caused by. “Nothing here to see, move on”

Stephen Shorland
November 25, 2009 10:28 am

Just watched ‘The Cloud Mystery’ on Youtube about Svenmark’s work on Cosmic Rays and their creation of the aerosols on which clouds form. Interesting that his experiment was conducted in Copenhagen? – You don’t think December’s meeting is a distraction ploy while a certain group smash his lab up??

Eric
November 25, 2009 10:28 am

>>” Bernie (10:01:40) :
In fairness that is too general a statement. It is important to be precise and specific, otherwise folks at RealClimate who actually really know their stuff will simply rip you to shreds. Certain critical pieces of station data have been requested. Certain pieces of code have been requested. More generally, authors of cliamte science research papers have been asked to post their raw data and their code in a way that will allow a complete replication of their results by interested third parties. It is the Institutional and individual refusal to do these simple things that has caused the questioning of the motives of climate scientists in general.”

Has UEA/CRU released any of their modeling code to the public? The impression gathered from reading the “liberated” e-mails and programming code is that they were doing everything possible to block open peer review of their work, and were instead trying to keep as much of their data (which maybe should be termed “data” given what we’re learning about its quality) and “secret sauce” code concealed from other scientists, let alone non-professional lay scholars and the public.
It’s a little shocking — why on earth isn’t every single piece of modeling code originating in university and public labs released to the public and subjected to open review by computer scientists, code writers, mathematicians and other climatologists? To increasingly learn that it’s not is a surprise even to me. How widespread is this kind of concealment?
HSBC, Citibank and the CIA can keep their internal climate code secret. But there’s no justification for universities and academics to conceal theirs’. It’s a subversion of the scientific process. And it demands that the question of motive be answered.

dr kill
November 25, 2009 10:28 am

The Pennsylvania State University has a prepared statement you may request by calling the Office of Public Information at 814-865-7517. I have it if you can’t get through.

Ben
November 25, 2009 10:29 am

After reading all of this, I would readily bet that Harry is the whistleblower. His words are those of someone becoming really angry, and less and less confident in the scientific integrity of the team he was working for. I cannot put myself in his shoes, but it is not difficult to imagine that, some day, possibly discovering the FOIA stuff, he decided that it was too much.

November 25, 2009 10:29 am

OT: Someone please educate Dr. Jeff Masters over at Weather Underground. If you can. I am beginning to wonder if he is someone who is in bed with these same groups of people because he gleefully talks about warming while hiding cooling. Just look at this blog.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1389

Shona
November 25, 2009 10:31 am

“Mike (09:38:32) :
One should just run this code on some totally random data series and plot the output.”
Given the sustained bias of the “synthetic” corrections, I wonder if it would actually be possible to output anything BUT warming. Would it be possible to put in made up declining data and see what happens? I suspect it would come out as a hockey stick anyway.
I sincerely hope we will find out, and interview the person who wrote Harry. His insight into what was going on was invaluable.

1Spectre4U
November 25, 2009 10:31 am

Now I am convinced it was an inside job. Seeing the exasperation in the comments paints for me a very convincing picture of who the leaker was. Some code monkey, who was probably also doing double duty as an IT tech. He (or she) finally got fed up with the constant demands of the heads to do things that fly in the face of both ethical scientific procedure, and worse still, best practice computer programming.
I guess they worked him one sunday too many, or gave him black marks on his review because he couldn’t get the computer to say what they wanted. The programmer went off the deep end and decided to start compiling a file of some of the more incriminating skeletons in the CRU’s closet.

Mike Nicholson
November 25, 2009 10:32 am

Can anyone tell me why Copenhagen is still going ahead?? !

Roger
November 25, 2009 10:33 am

I have worked as a professional programmer for more than 20 years, and I think that the language in these comments is strange, to say the least. I mean – I have often been swearing over poorly documented spaghetti code – (almost) as bad as this one – but I have NEVER put the swearing into writing. In my opinion, this stinks. It seems that the author of these comments WANTED the world to see them. He is certainly writing to another audience than his fellow programmers. So there are two possibilities: 1) Either, the programmer (Harry?) is the whistleblower, or 2) This is a trap.

juan
November 25, 2009 10:35 am

Hultquist, Bosseler:
I’m not a programmer so I’ll probably say this wrong. I came across a commenter the other day (wish I could remember where) who seemed to have an explanation for the sum-of-squared variable going negative. He said it was a common error for inexperienced programmers to make: recursiively incrementing a variable until the sign bit gets changed. Kind of an overflow problem. He took it as an indicator of the quality of the coding….

November 25, 2009 10:35 am

Henry chance:

Real climate says all comments are shut off for 2 days. The adverse comments outnumber the puff comments 10:1. It looks like the outrage is being posted over there.
CEI has sued Schmidt, Gavin for working on the blog instead of doing NASA work. There are years of FOIA requests in the que at NASA GISS that wait being released.
Just to be graphic, Gavin schmidt is pimpin’ global warming when he is not doing work he is paid to do.
Human Resource managers have a problem when people are on the job and doing work for themselves. Earlier a mod named “eric” was doing all the comments and then they shut down. Yesterday Gavin posted a request for someone to volunteer to help.

I notice that Joel Shore has also stopped posting as of 11/19.
I’ve warned Joel before that every post has a time/date stamp.

Eric
November 25, 2009 10:37 am

>>” Paul (10:12:48) :
I keep seeing this line in the code;
; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures.
but what does it actually mean?
Observed Temperatures?
Homogenized Temperatures?
Fudge Factor Temperatures?
Not really sure what to make of this statement as yet…”

I’ve presumed it means the following: ‘Given the underlying dataset, our model predicts that the years from 1960 onwards should have been warmer…. warmer, that is, than they actually were. If we therefore publish the “unpolished” results from this model, people will be able to compare the predicted temps to the actual temps…. and it’ll become clear that our model makes poor predictions. Then they’d conclude that its predictions about the future obviously cannot be relied upon….’ And we wouldn’t want anybody doubting the model, would we?!
That’s a personal supposition; informed enlightenment requested.

November 25, 2009 10:38 am

Great reporting. With any luck CERN will finally nail it all with their CLOUD experiments.

Richard A.
November 25, 2009 10:39 am

“Do any other sciences permit one to hide calculations in a program and then not publish said program with the paper?”
Yes and no. Journals have differring standards, sometimes they’re enforced sometimes they’re not, sometimes they would go to the length you describe, sometimes not. This particular crew at Hadley has taken heat because the policy implications of their work imply a heavy right to know on the part of the public and especially people who wanted to and were capable of reviewing the methods. At which point the journals policies on the matter were examined and they were prevailed upon to actually enforce them, which they often didn’t, which lead to numerous and multiplying efforts to either get the information through enforcement of their policies or subsequently FOIA requests, which has eventually lead to… this.
But if we’re talking about a study in biology on the contents of the feces of some frog in the far corners of the jungle, it’s likely the journal it’s submitted to wouldn’t enforce their policy, and it’s likely no one would care. People cared here, and these guys having been lifetime academics and thus never actually having to earn a living via the quality of their work, thought they could simply blow off their detractors.

M.A.DeLuca
November 25, 2009 10:42 am

Hysteria, I’m not so sure. O’Reilly has, I believe, said that Global Warming is real and something needs to be done about it. So did McCain during his bid for the Presidency. That indicates a fraction of the conservative base had been convinced this was a real issue that needed to be addressed.
This revelation of subterfuge and skulduggery has certainly made a bunch of conservatives re-think this position, and I’m sure libertarians and a handful of liberals as well. Beat this drum loud enough, often enough, and the support base for global warming hysteria will once again return to little more than tree-hugging alarmists. But the time to act is NOW, before any more talk of ‘cap and trade’ or Copenhagen concessions make their way through Congress.

juan
November 25, 2009 10:46 am

A bit OT, but maybe not too far. A question for the legal beagles out there: When a close circle of researchers conspire to block another researcher’s publication, would that not be tortious interference under the law?

November 25, 2009 10:48 am

Hysteria (10:19:26) :

My opinion – for what its worth – I think we are too late.

It is, however, going to make interesting reading in the history books, on a number of different levels, perhaps even on a par with Piltdown Man(n).

The “Piltdown Man” is a famous paleontological hoax concerning …
The Piltdown hoax is perhaps the most famous paleontological hoax in history. It has been prominent for two reasons: … and the length of time (more than 40 years) that elapsed from its discovery to its full exposure as a forgery.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piltdown_Man

rbateman
November 25, 2009 10:48 am

The worst possible scenario now is that the Sun will continue down it’s degratory path, CERN Cloud will pan out to support Svensmark, the global climate will enter areas we don’t really know signal real trouble. And all because some overzealous hypothesis funding gravy-trained the world’s climate databases into a spaghehtti-coded event-horizon.
This is a perfect example of Murphy’s Law striking mankind due to pure greed.

JDN
November 25, 2009 10:49 am

Examples:
HRM: You may have the chart upside down.
After an industrial accident: Their control code was still waiting for Harry to read it.
If only Harry were here to read this.
Etc.

November 25, 2009 10:49 am
PR Guy
November 25, 2009 10:51 am

Over at Connolley’s blog I posted:
“The Emails show that Jones and Mann can’t be trusted. HARRY_READ_ME shows that the code is incompetent and the code itself shows manual adjustments that have no scientific basis. This is sufficient evidence to call for a third party review of the entire CRU methodology. ”
To which I got two replies:
——
PR Guy – what papers was the HARRY_READ_ME code used on? Have you any evidence it was used at all?
Posted by: Chris S. | November 25, 2009 12:07 PM
—–
PR Guy,do you even know which dataset/product the HARRY_READ_ME code is dealing with?
Posted by: Adam | November 25, 2009 12:46 PM
—-
To which I responded:
“Chris S and Adam, these are very reasonable questions. Perhaps you should submit a FOIA to find out. I’m sure we all agree that answers to these sorts of questions are vital and should not be obstructed.”
This last comment was deleted by William (or maybe the moderator, if there is a moderator). The Team never lets points get scored against them on their court.

Frank Lansner
November 25, 2009 10:51 am

CLIMATE GATE IN NEW ZEALAND!
J SAllingers Climate fraction caught in temperature swindle:
Here NZ temperature graph before and after “adjusments”:
Sallinger has changes NZ temperature trend for the 20´th century from 0,06K to 0,92 K !
The team behind these findings will now move on to other countries.
WAY TO GO!

hitfan
November 25, 2009 10:52 am

I’ve done some programming myself. I used to put in swear words in the code all the time.
In fact, I would even use the F word and variations thereof for variable and object names, LOL.

John Peter
November 25, 2009 10:55 am

Hi Folks
What do you think about this one? It looks as if the “data adjustment contamination” has infected New Zealand as well. Look at
http://www.climatescience.org.nz/
and click on Link at: CLIMATEGATE IN NEW ZEALAND? – TEMPERATURE RECORDS MANIPULATED Science
It is incredible to read how New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) seems to have managed to make a “hockey stick” out of their raw data which apparently shows that there has been no warming of any consequence since 1850. One wonders who else has been involved in this game.

t-bird
November 25, 2009 10:56 am

I guess this proves their point that Global Warming truly is man-made. Totally made up, in fact, by a few.

jcl
November 25, 2009 10:58 am

I mean seriously, [snip]????? “yearlyadj”? Temp proxy declines so just add a ramp to the values??????
;mknormal,yyy,timey,refperiod=[1881,1940]
;
; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!
;
yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904]
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor (…) ; ; APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION ; yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x) densall=densall+yearlyadj Dishman November 25, 2009 11:00 am I had a really scary thought… What if the problem isn’t with the tree rings, but with the temperature series? What if the temperature series is actually off by 2.6C (high) since 1940? Does that mean we’re actually 2C or more below the 1940s temps? Are we screwed? RConnelly November 25, 2009 11:01 am The major problem with climate science (along with much of acadamia) is that they dont use ‘Software Engineers’ following good software development practices to develop the programms, models, etc. Mostly its just PhDs hacking stuff together. They are very smart… but software engineering is not their expertise. Ask them where are the Requirement documents, Design Documents, Review documents, Test Plans, Test results, configuration Control plans etc.. Now they are asking for$100 billions to be spent based to some extent upon software that has not passed any formal testing….

November 25, 2009 11:06 am

JCS
“Steve Gavin at RealClimate has refused more than 6 times to post the following message, are you willing to present this very important point for me?”
LOL. JCS, welcome to the club of thousands who Gavin has moderated out because he finds their comments inconvenient. Gavin is a part of the AGW cabal. He is on the distribution list for many of the e-mails from CRU gate. Some of those comments make it clear that Jones and others consider Gavin as the guy that runs interference for them. I have written a small piece about how debates are orchestrated at RC here:
http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/

November 25, 2009 11:08 am

HARRY_READ_ME is a great work of stream-of-consciousness literature and perhaps Harry was aware of it so when they asked him to delete it after he got all excited about it being included in a Freedom of Information Act package that then was denied release…he said to himself:
“No, so holp me Petault, it is not a miseffectual whyancinthinous riot of blots and blurs and bars and balls and hoops and wriggles and juxtaposed jottings linked by spurts of speed: it only looks as like is as damn it; and, sure, we ought really to rest thankful that at this deleteful hour of dungflies dawning we have even a written on with dried ink scrap of paper at all to show for ourselves, tare it or leaf it, (and we are lufted to ourselves as the soulfisher when he led the cat out of the bout) after all that we lost and plundered of it even to the hidmost coignings of the earth and all it has gone through and by all means, after a good ground kiss to Terracussa and for wars luck our lefftoff’s flung over our home homeplate, cling to it as with drowning hands, hoping against all hope all the while that, by the light of philosophy, (and may she never folsage us!) things will begain to clear up a bit one way or another within the next quarrel of an hour and be hanged to them as ten to one they will too, please the pigs, as they ought to categorically, as, strickly between ourselves, there is a limit to all things so this will never do.” – James Joyce (“Finnegans Wake” 1939)

PhilW
November 25, 2009 11:11 am

Run these numbers, see if that makes a hockey stick…………

November 25, 2009 11:13 am

Are there perhaps some people around still denying this fairly decent evidence of poor science? Is there some term we could use for them perhaps?

Glenn
November 25, 2009 11:16 am

;mknormal,yyy,timey,refperiod=[1881,1940]
;
“; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!
;
yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904]
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor (…) ; ; APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION ; yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x) densall=densall+yearlyadj” ************************************ Hmm. Are there edited versions out there? My file: ; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!! ; yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904] valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$
2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor
if n_elements(yrloc) ne n_elements(valadj) then message,’Oooops!’
;
;
;oplot,timey,tslow,thick=5,color=20
;
filter_cru,5.,/nan,tsin=yyy,tslow=tslow
oplot,timey,tslow,thick=5,color=21
;
oplot,!x.crange,[0.,0.],linestyle=1
;
plot,[0,1],/nodata,xstyle=4,ystyle=4
;legend,[‘Northern Hemisphere April-September instrumental temperature’,$; ‘Northern Hemisphere MXD’,$
; ‘Northern Hemisphere MXD corrected for decline’],$; colors=[22,21,20],thick=[3,3,3],margin=0.6,spacing=1.5 legend,[‘Northern Hemisphere April-September instrumental temperature’,$
‘Northern Hemisphere MXD’],$colors=[22,21],thick=[3,3],margin=0.6,spacing=1.5 ; end Gary Hladik November 25, 2009 11:16 am Reed Coray (09:35:23) : “http://i47.tinypic.com/mrxszt.png Great picture, but I have a question. Which one is Judas?” Easy. They all are. 🙂 Bill Hunter November 25, 2009 11:16 am If I produced work like that I would want to delete it also rather than give it to an auditor. Short of a detailed explanation and the full production of a model establishing this as nothing more than an interim piece of work; Jones should be fired for this alone. He probably should also be held to account for the fraud that this is. This is beyond incompetence for somebody in Jones position if he can’t bring something forward to mitigate this! This would also appear to establish Jones as a liar in suggesting the “to hide the decline” behavior only dealt with modifying a graphic. t-bird November 25, 2009 11:16 am Very disappointing. slashdot.org has only posted the original Nov 20th story about the fact that files had been hacked (or leaked) from the Hadley CRU. No follow-up about the content or the code that is being found. Global economic nightfall, perhaps aided and abetted by programmers, and not a peep out of slashdot? Robinson November 25, 2009 11:17 am I’ve done some programming myself. I used to put in swear words in the code all the time. In fact, I would even use the F word and variations thereof for variable and object names, LOL. That isn’t considered very professional in my business, to be honest. rbateman November 25, 2009 11:22 am Excuse me, Mr. Monbiot. Nobody has given me a copper-coated zinc penny. I want my weather back. Get it? Dishman (11:00:55) : Are we scrooged? Probably. Depends upon whether you can trust GHCN with Jones/Karl online now is not the mangled mess HARRY was tasked with while supposing that the MasterDB will somehow miraculouly appear in a pristine state. Now, just close your eyes, click your heels 3 times, and say “there’s no place like home, there’s no place like home”. Ron de Haan November 25, 2009 11:23 am If we don’t fix the science and clean out the “climate caves” we will have more of this bogus in the future: http://heliogenic.blogspot.com/2009/11/can-it-get-any-more-hysterical.html rbateman November 25, 2009 11:26 am http://www.solarcycle24.com/stereobehind.htm Zzzzzz…….snore….zzzzz…..snuck, snore….zzzzzz Eric November 25, 2009 11:26 am documents\cru-code\linux\cruts This code is used to convert new data into the new CRU 2.0 data format (.cts files). There is another version of this code in cru-code\alpha which is, per comment in the readme file, intended for running on the “Alphas” Data can come in from text files or Excel spreadsheet files (or actually Excel spreadsheets written out to text files from Excel). These programs are designed to read multiple climate data file formats include GHCNv2 CLIMAT (Phil Jones formt) MCDW CLIMAT (original) CLIMAT (AOPC-Offenbach) Jian’s Chinese data from Excel (appears to be text output from Excel) CRU time-series file format – with the comment “(but not quite right)” Data files for running these code files are not available in this archive. Software engineering comment – this collection of programs – very large source code files – is implementing a crude database management system. Most of the source code is uncommented and undocumented. From a s/w engineering perspective, it would have seemed wise to have used an existing DBMS that had been extensively tested and verified. Instead, the approach chosen results in extremely large amounts of custom code being written. There is no evidence provided of software quality assurance (SQA) procedures applied, such as a test plan, test scenarios, unit testing, test driven development and so forth. It would most likely have been quicker and more reliable to use existing software tools like DBMS. The goal of the software is to eventually calculate the anomalies of the temperature series from the 1961-1990 mean. Because station reporting data is often missing, the code works to find nearby stations and then substitute those values directly or through a weighting procedure. In effect, the code is estimating a value for missing data. Station data will be used as long as at least 75% of the reporting periods are present (or stated the other way, up to 25% of the data can be missing and missing data will be estimated). The linux\_READ_ME.txt file contains an extensive description. Of interest, stations within 8km of each other are considered “duplicates” and the data between the stations is “merged”. I have a question about this which may not really matter – but there is no attempt to determine if the nearby stations are correlated with one another. It is possible, for example, that one station is near a body of water (and less volatile) and another is on the roof of a fire station (see surfacestations.org). Or the stations could be at different elevations. In my town, the official weather reporting station moved 4 times over the past century – from downtown in a river valley, to eventually up on a plateau next to a windy airport. These locations would today fall within the 8km bounding area. My concern is that this could skew results in an unpredictable way. Then again, it could be that the situations like I describe are rare and would have negligable impact on the calculations. hitfan November 25, 2009 11:28 am Robinson: I may have exaggerated a bit. I only did it for one particular employer and it was because I was working 14+ hours a day and being placed on 24/7 pager duty with no extra compensation (imagine getting called during your grandmother’s funeral or while in Church on Christmas Eve–yes it happened to me), I survived 20 rounds of layoffs at that company during the dotcom crash. So in order to relieve a bit of frustration, I had a bit of fun with my source code. And one of these programs was literally a SPAM DIALER, which was a robo caller that would annoy people with telemarketing promotions. It was quite efficient, it was able to call about 20,000 people a day (with 2 T1s). Yes, I confess that I programmed a spam dialer during the dotcom crash in order to pay the bills. And there were swear words in the source code! 🙂 (and I don’t feel the least bad about it). The company is now dead and bankrupt and I danced a little jig when I found out about it a few years later! Editor November 25, 2009 11:28 am ManBearPig November 25, 2009 11:28 am Hysteria (10:19:26) : My opinion – for what its worth – I think we are too late. It is, however, going to make interesting reading in the history books, on a number of different levels, perhaps even on a par with Piltdown Man(n). The “Piltdown Man” is a famous paleontological hoax concerning … The Piltdown hoax is perhaps the most famous paleontological hoax in history. It has been prominent for two reasons: … and the length of time (more than 40 years) that elapsed from its discovery to its full exposure as a forgery. . . DennisA November 25, 2009 11:32 am In spite of all this, a BBC program announcement for this eveneing, ref Copenhagen, is: “Can President Obama save the Planet?” I despair. Jeff L November 25, 2009 11:32 am “a sum-of-squared variable is becoming very, very negative!” …nice … the only way to get a large negative with a sum of square is if the numbers are “imaginary” [no pun intended – ie i = sqrt(-1) ] ,,,but an ironic comment none the less given the second meaning of “imaginary” numbers (ie – they made them up) The real meat of this whole deal is likely to be found in the code & how the data has been manipulated. Not that this is neccessarily illegal, but it will clearly show that the science is not nearly as settled as it is reported to be (especially for making trillion dollar decisions based on POS code). It would also appear based on all the information I have seen so far that the magnitude of warming over the recent historical record (roughly 130 years) may be less (possibly significantly less) than has been represented. The significance of the last statement can not be over-emphasized. This is what needs to be determined (or re-determined) ASAP. I wish I had more time as I would delve into it. The original data isn’t neccessarily needed to do this. If a synthetic dataset of reasonable similarity were created & then run through the code, you could look at the output compared to the input & get a sense of how the data has been distorted. With several synthetic datasets that had differenet assumptions, you could test some sensativities to different aspects of input. With that information in hand, you could probably create resonable scalings to estimate what the original data looked like & how it has been distorted & presented to the public. This approach is somewhat similar to what Steve McIntire did with the hockey stick de-bunking, where he adventually showed that even inputing a random number seqence resulted in a “hockey stick”. If someone who has the time & skills could take this same approach with this code, it might not just kill a “hockey stick” but AGW in total – in other words, it is possible no matter what raw data you put in , the global temp tend always comes out increasing. Don’t dismiss this possibility! If this hypothesis was born out, AGW would be catagorically dead. Given the implication, it certainly seems worth the time & effort. The above scenario is interesting to contemplate, but the most like scenario is that the actual warming is less than represented. Keep in mind, if you just do a logarithmic curve fit to the data as currently presented (temp & CO2 have a logarithmic relationship theoretically) that the sensativity in terms of deg /CO2 doubling is already substantially below the IPCC #’s (see my post on “spencer on finding a new climate sensitivity marker”, 10-5-09). So, if the actual temp tend is flatter than currently represented coming out of CRU, it means the sensitivity is even smaller still. Of course, that does mean that going fwd, there is no way to represent CO2 as a significant problem and AGW as a “problem” is dead. JB November 25, 2009 11:32 am Hiding the Decline: Part 1 – The Adventure Begins (Eric S. Raymond) http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=1447 Mark November 25, 2009 11:33 am I’d like to know what the “decline” is. Is it temperature? Eric November 25, 2009 11:33 am documents\cru-code\f77\mnew\sh2sp_m.for This program, sunh2sunp, converts the “sun hours monthly time series to sun percent (n/N)”. I do not have access to the cited reference used for calculation so have not yet determined if the code is implemented correctly. However, in the odd situation where the calculation exceeds 100%, the code, surprisingly, checks for this but then leaves the incorrect value in place: c decide what to do when % > 100 if(sunp(im).gt.100)sunp(im)=sunp(im) For non programmers this says, in simplified form if x > 100, then let x = x Normally, if a value is incorrect, the error is either flagged or perhaps in this case it could be due to round off error – in which case, we might expect something like: if x > 100, then let x = 100 which would force the value of x to never exceed 100. The purpose of this program and how it fits into any analysis is not yet understood. The program appears to date back to 1997 (and probably went out of usage by 2003) and it may no longer be in use. It is entirely possible that the above error condition never occurred – and consequently, this defect in the software would have no impact on the results. In a separate code file (sp2cld_m.for), the above test is implemented correctly: IF(CLD(im).GT.80.0) CLD(im)=80.0 The file exhibits poor Fortran coding standards such as: ratio=(REAL(sunp(im))/1000) IF(RATIO.GE.0.95) CLD(im)=0 Note the lower case ‘ratio’ and the upper case ‘RATIO’ variable names. The variables XLAT and RATIO are not declared. Similarly for iy, iy1, iy2. Fortran 90 permitted this practice and would automatically define the value based on the first letter of the variable name: A through H and O to Z are set to type ‘real’. Use of this feature is discouraged because the compiler is then unable to flag typographical errors – instead of warning of using an undeclared variable, it just defines a new one. This can result in erroneous program operation – if that occurs. Note – this is a software engineering issue and is not the source of any identified execution errors in this program. This is to note that this is poor programming practice. It does not appear to have resulted in an implementation or execution error. Note – the issues I cite do not mean the program’s executed incorrectly. They are more indications of poor programming practices. And I believe we the people deserve the utmost care and professionalism in a matter as important as this. Paul November 25, 2009 11:33 am I have to say, speaking as an OBI/Hyperion system consultant, the biggest issues we have on virtually every project are; 1) Serious data issues 2) People don’t understand the data in the first place. I feel for Harry. November 25, 2009 11:33 am Amazing !!! I can’t believe that this is all real ! dean November 25, 2009 11:34 am The REAL IRONY in this DEBACLE is the INTERNET that GORE INVENTED is going to hasten HIS DEMISE. November 25, 2009 11:34 am Forgive me for jumping in here, as its a bit OT. Richard A. said: ‘But if we’re talking about a study in biology on the contents of the feces of some frog in the far corners of the jungle, it’s likely the journal it’s submitted to wouldn’t enforce their policy, and it’s likely no one would care.’ Not so! To the contrary. Without documenting how many frogs you were studying, and where (not forgetting a control group, heh!) and at what time (dd/mm/yy), you’d get your paper sent back. All this comes under ‘Material and Methods’. Next you have ‘Results’. Thats where all your numbers go, and the stats. The point is, especially in biology, that anybody must be able to go where you went, do exactly as you’ve done, and come up with the same results (given a dead frog here and there …) Then you can talk about what you’ve done and what your results mean. That is why I, a retired zoologist, find these revelations so utterly distressing. If you don’t provide the data on which you’ve built your hypothesis, how can it ever be replicated? How can it be confirmed or refuted? Science is about replication of that what you discovered – its not about secret knowledge which only the select are allowed to share. I am dismayed at the huge disservice these people have done to science. Hank Hancock November 25, 2009 11:36 am M.A.DeLuca (09:40:16) wrote : “If a physicist were to submit a paper without showing the math, that paper would (I assume) be rightly ridiculed and sent back with a “show your work” rebuke. It doesn’t seem right that one can hide one’s work in software, and then casually dismiss the absence of documented code upon submitting a paper as these yahoos have done. And yet, that seems exactly the way mainstream climatology works. Do any other sciences permit one to hide calculations in a program and then not publish said program with the paper?” M.A., I am a medical research scientist with five peer reviewed abstracts published in leading journals. Last year one of the papers I co-authored was selected for oral presentation (a high honor). Before we can even begin a study, we face a panel of experts called an IRB (Institutional Review Board). They review our hypothesis, proposed methodology, demographics, and inclusion criteria we intend to use in the study. This is our first peer review. If we don’t pass this review, the study is dead. While we conduct the study, we must be absolutely careful to follow the study protocol approved by the IRB. If we discover anything that needs to be changed in the protocol, we must stop the study and go back to the IRB to request a protocol change approval. We can’t simply say “we’ll make adjustments here and there to fix the problem.” The IRB holds another review. If we can’t get their approval, the study is dead. When the study is completed, we then submit it to the journal for publication. We are required to disclose all data and methods sufficient to reproduce our results. Typically, we create a resource package containing the database (in XLS format to facilitate import into any database), queries, and formulas. If formulas are calculated using computer programs, we supply the source code. There is no concept of hiding behind intellectual properties in the disclosure – if you can’t provide the means to reproduce the study using our methodologies then the study is summarily rejected. By journal requirements, we must make the same package available to any doctor or center requesting it. We can charge a reasonable processing fee to defer costs in providing the package. We do not choose who the reviewers will be. It is during this official peer review process that we must respond to any and all questions from the reviewers. Sometimes we are asked to include additional information in the abstract or fix up citations and other presentation issues. Assuming we pass the peer review, the abstract is published. All of the above applies even to retrospective studies (most climate studies are retrospective). From what I’m seeing, it appears that the climate journals have little to no independence in peer review and bow quite low to peer pressure. When people say peer reviewed in context to climate, I laugh and remind them its a good ole’ boy network. Bring a case of Mann’s favorite beer and it’ll get published. yonason November 25, 2009 11:38 am This all may be a distraction, to keep our eye off the Copenhagen ball. Make no mistake, they have not given up. Quite the contrary. “Obama says ‘step closer’ to climate deal” http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=975599 They have given us the sacrificial goat, which has served it’s purpose. And, while we have a feeding frenzy, the real beast walks by unhindered, and barely noticed. Phillip Bratby November 25, 2009 11:43 am In less than 8 hours, google hits on “Climategate” have gone from 160,000 to 24,200,000. Hockey stick anyone? Isn’t 24,200,000 about the same as WUWT hits? Coincidence or WATT? Bill P November 25, 2009 11:45 am The bug shown traipsing across this code (in the picture) … looks a lot like the assassin beetles that buzz into our house ever summer. If so, this picture is apt. Ray November 25, 2009 11:46 am Wow, instead of cutting out the lines before 1400, they should have used a low-pass filter. They know how to use a high pass filter already, so why not a low pass filter? How hard is it really to read a thermometer? From what they say, the temperature read on any thermometer is not the real temperature… that’s news to me! I better get a copy of their code because I have many thermometers, RTD and thermocouples in my lab. Damn it, for all my life I thought water was freezing at 0 Celsius and boiling at 100 Celsius at 1 atmosphere… got to go back to school to learn the new rules provided by these bunch of people. Leon Palmer November 25, 2009 11:47 am Proof again (if any was needed) that HADCRUT is untrustworthy for climatology! Should rely on satellite temperatures only from 1979 since the provenance and processing are better documented, better maintained, and independently (UAH vs RSS) validated. November 25, 2009 11:51 am All this blog communicating/ranting is fine but I’m here to tell ya that the Copenhagen ’support change’ bits are rolling on the radios. Sirius Left channel 146 are running them big time. Bill Press, Alex Bennett, Thom Hartmann, Lynn Samuels, Mark Thompson, Mike Malloy and others… google ‘em up, call ‘em up, get email addresses from the sirius left site and give ‘em a hard time. I do, every day! They hang up on me, they know me too well, but you smart people can get through to a real load of people at a perfect time. They are a lot of fun to mess with. November 25, 2009 11:53 am this is so bad. the global financial ramifications of this fraud are incomprehensibly huge. even when one considers damages incurred to date, let alone the future damages of pending legislation, there are at least hundreds of billions of dollars that have been bilked from taxpayers worldwide to fund this insidious mess. it must be the largest single fraud ever perpetrated. anybody an expert on class action lawsuits to recover damages and put the fraud that is global climate change on trial? at least in that case the world may be able to subpoena these groups to get at the truth once and for all… makes one sick to think what a handful of politicians and “scientists” have been able to do to all of us and nearly every industry. as a builder, the entire LEED certification process is nearly fully predicated on data and conclusions put forth by these groups, which has resulted in enormous additional costs on nearly every public construction project. what a sham. i’m all for sustainability, but fraud is fraud. -patternbuilder John Galt November 25, 2009 11:57 am When I was a student, we had to turn in our source code for our projects. We couldn’t just turn in some output and say “see, I got the right answer”. The source code and the output was evaluated. The code had to be properly commented. It’s obvious these programmers never expected any outsiders to view the source code. Is the science as sloppy as the code? By all appearances, yes. Adam Sullivan November 25, 2009 11:58 am Seems to me that “calibration” of tree ring data is a bit of a joke. For the modern periods where we have the highest quality records available we see the “recalibration” where the numbers get “fudged” (the scientific term used in the code is “fudge factor”) in order to make a “calibration” work that makes the pre 1900 data reflect cooler temperatures than if the data had been calibrated to post 1900 data. Not only do we have the “hide the decline at the end” (which can be argued as a plausible treatment if young tree rings are somehow not “ripe”), but the pre 1900 manipulation is just the sort of thing you need to do in order the straighten the handle of the hockey stick, isn’t it? Ken November 25, 2009 11:58 am New Zealand Icebergs — More than 100 icebergs that were first spotted off the coast of Macquarie Island, an Australian territory around 900 miles south east of Tasmania, are now thought to be only 200 miles away from New Zealand’s south coast. This is only the second time in 78 years that large Antarctic icebergs have been sighted so far north. “While the size of the icebergs has attracted a lot of attention, it is not unusual for icebergs to be found in these waters,” a spokesperson for Maritime New Zealand told CNN, who continued to say that alerts for smaller icebergs are not uncommon. But a half-kilometer wide iceberg visible from New Zealand’s coast would represent a very rare occurrence. “An iceberg that size this far north is pretty significant,” Philip Duncan, Head Weather Analyst of the New Zealand-based Weather Watch Center told CNN. It is thought that the current flotilla of icebergs came off the Ross Ice shelf between 2000 and 2002, the same period that produced the 2006 icebergs. The question now is what caused the huge fresh water icebergs to break off from an Antarctic Ice shelf and what has allowed them to travel so far north. “A lot of people are saying it was due to a very cold snap a few years ago in Antarctica that caused more ice than usual and the outer regions of that ice snap off each summer,” said Duncan. SOOOO — despite all the global warming claims, Antarctica was suffering very cold snaps in 2000 to 2002, enough so that more ice and snow deposited, leading to large icebergs breaking off. In other words, all the warming nuts who point to icebergs and scream “The ice is melting we’re all going to die” failed to check the weather, which was COLDER, had more ICE, and naturally lead to more bergs breaking off the Ross Ice shelf. Robinson November 25, 2009 11:58 am Ironically, the University of East Anglia has a Computer Science department: Welcome to the School of Computing Sciences, CMP. With about 35 staff and 500 students we conduct research and teach in the fields of Computer Science, Business and Electronics. We have a consultancy company, SYSCO, and many of our staff have close links with industry. Computing science graduates are well paid and our graduates are among the best paid from UEA and can be found in almost every employment sector all over the world. The fact is that they have the expertise on campus to engineer a decent piece of software. I’m not saying it would neccessarily work that way of course. Most of the good practice in design and implementation I have learnt since leaving University, not while I was an undergraduate. In industry you literally won’t have a paycheck if things don’t work. The problem is that nobody outside of a small circle of users was asked to audit the software, or, I suspect, to contribute to its design or development. It’s quite stunning that its output is being used as “evidence” (cast iron!) forming the basis of trillion dollar government programmes. But anyway, we don’t know that the program is broken. It probably produces the desired output ;). Erik November 25, 2009 12:00 pm The more I read about this, the more disgusted I become. While in college I studied under Chris McKay somewhat (Dr. Terraforming), and the “tricks” that keep showing up here are items that he told me to not do. He always told me to go from “base principles instead of pinning.” What it seems like to me, is that the observed data doesn’t fit the model, so the data is artificially pinned to meet the expectations of the model. Disgusting. Bill P November 25, 2009 12:02 pm ; artificially removed (i.e. corrected) the decline in this calibrated ; we know the file starts at yr 440, but we want nothing till 1400, so we ; can skill lines (1400-440)/10 + 1 header line ; we now want all lines (10 yr per line) from 1400 to 1980, which is ; (1980-1400)/10 + 1 lines (…) ; we know the file starts at yr 1070, but we want nothing till 1400, so we ; can skill lines (1400-1070)/10 + 1 header line Love the euphemisms. “Corrected…” “We can skill lines…?” James Sexton November 25, 2009 12:02 pm While it’s not over by a long shot, this is a taste of vindication for all of those who refused to worship at the alter of Gaia.!!! And cheers to the people here and elsewhere that do the legwork for so many of us. Keep fighting the good fight!!!! Kate November 25, 2009 12:02 pm “Pieter F (09:16:40) : … why won’t the mainstream media report on the matter?” …Because they’re all waiting for each other to be the first to break the story properly, which will take a huge investment and a massive gamble with their credibility to pull off. When the Telegraph exposed our MPs’ expenses they were assigning up to 60 journalists to cover it, and check all the facts before each publication. That’s why all the main papers are still only putting the CRU fraud in sidebars and in non-staffers’ opinion pieces, and not in their headlines. Richard A. November 25, 2009 12:03 pm RE Hank Hancock and Viv Evans Hank is a perfect example of what it’s like when you’re actually held accountable for your work. Note Hank’s field: Medical Research. I agree Viv, these are the standards that should be met. But quite obviously they aren’t always met, or none of us would be here, right now, reading this stuff. MattN November 25, 2009 12:04 pm Wow. *** MUST ALTER FUNCT_DECLINE.PRO TO MATCH THE COORDINATES OF THE ; START OF THE DECLINE *** ALTER THIS EVERY TIME YOU CHANGE ANYTHING *** Just…wow…. Tim Nez November 25, 2009 12:04 pm Folks, I do forecasting for an XX billion $$corp. The program is written in FORTRAN and has over a million lines of code. It was written by mastered programmers and math geeks. The program is documented in 10 volumes and the code contains extremely well defined notes for variable and process outcomes. This was built by a private corporation to manage X billions in yearly expenditures. To see and read anything that looks like this mess is quite disturbing. The company would go broke with this type of programming. BTW – Anthony this is the best site on climate I have ever seen (for 2 years now) and all of you other science geek’s hats off for your contributions. From the girl in the northwest to the guys that can’t figure out what the sun really does to our climate I really enjoy & learn from your inputs and knowledge. I am anal about being analytical and one of these days, one of these days Alice – bang – to the moon. I’ll contribute to this most excellent adventure. Timothy PatrickG November 25, 2009 12:09 pm Swiss Bob (10:38:34) : For those of you who don’t know, the Cloud experiment at CERN is meant to test the connection between cosmic rays (from the sun and galactic centers) and cloud nucleation and hence cloud formation. The rate of cosmic rays entering the atmosphere is controlled by the strength of the earths magnetic field. During strong sunspot activity the earths magnetic field strengthens, limiting the amount of cosmic rays. When the sun is quiet (as it is now) the earths magnetic field weakens allow in more cosmic rays. To summarize the theory: Quite Sun -> more cosmic rays -> more clouds Active Sun -> fewer cosmic rays -> fewer clouds November 25, 2009 12:10 pm http://algorelied.com/?p=3246 Follow that link to a post on my blog speculating that “Harry Read Me” possibly is connected to CRU staffer Ian (Harry) Harrison who has as part of his job description “data manipulation”. It may help in shedding more light on this discussion. b. November 25, 2009 12:13 pm Got to nail these guys, otherwise, to use an apt quote “For if we fail, the whole world will sink into a new Dark Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more prolonged, by the light of a perverted science.” nvw November 25, 2009 12:15 pm Who is Harry? Possibly Ian (Harry) Harris – not Harrison as suggested above. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/ Ron de Haan November 25, 2009 12:15 pm Increddible. Scientists defends climate data he knows is tempered with and calls for an investigation at the same time. That’s what I call “turning on a dime”. “Scam artist” gets a whole new meaning. http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4457&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feedutm_campaign=Feed%3A+co2sceptics%2Fnews+%28CO2sceptics+News+Blog%29 Shona November 25, 2009 12:17 pm Question for the warmists, if you saw data like this having been used for building an aeroplane, would you fly in that aeroplane? Ray November 25, 2009 12:20 pm Only in their world that tree-thermometers are better than real thermometers. Amazing! Jonny B. Good November 25, 2009 12:22 pm [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deiOUtn5Gh8&hl=en_US&fs=1&] Jim November 25, 2009 12:28 pm ************************************* Robinson (11:58:42) : The fact is that they have the expertise on campus to engineer a decent piece of software. I’m not saying it would neccessarily work that way of course. Most of the good practice in design and implementation I have learnt since leaving University, not while I was an undergraduate. In industry you literally won’t have a paycheck if things don’t work. ************************************** Judging from the comments, it probably isn’t the programmer that’s bad, it’s the data. It appears he was being pushed to achieve a certain outcome. If he was disgusted and frustrated enough, he just might do something a little rash like push the code and other info into the wild. Henry chance November 25, 2009 12:30 pm http://www.ems.psu.edu/sites/default/files/u5/Mann_Public_Statement.pdf “Michael Manns articles have been published in well respected peer reviewed scientific journals” Mann brings a new meaning to “scientific peer reviewed journals” Keith W. November 25, 2009 12:30 pm Connected to the station count problem, this was one of my jaw-dropping moments so far in HARRY. It confirms the problem I diagnosed in GHCN concerning station “sphere of influence” effects. “Worked out an algorithm from scratch. It seems to give better answers than the others, so we’ll go with that. Also decided that the approach I was taking (pick a gridline of latitude and reverse- engineer the GCD algorithm so the unknown is the second lon) was overcomplicated, when we don’t need to know where it hits, just that it does. Since for any cell the nearest point to the station will be a vertex, we can test candidate cells for the distance from the appropriate vertex to the station. Program is stncounts.for, but is causing immense problems. The problem is, really, the huge numbers of cells potentially involved in one station, particularly at high latitudes. Working out the possible bounding box when you’re within cdd of a pole (ie, for tmean with a cdd of 1200, the N-S extent is over 20 cells (10 degs) in each direction. Maybe not a serious problem for the current datasets but an example of the complexity. Also, deciding on the potential bounding box is nontrivial, because of cell ‘width’ changes at high latitudes (at 61 degs North, the half-degree cells are only 27km wide! With a precip cdd of 450 km this means the bounding box is dozens of cells wide – and will be wider at the Northern edge! Clearly a large number of cells are being marked as covered by each station. So in densely-stationed areas there will be considerable smoothing, and in sparsely-stationed (or empty) areas, there will be possibly untypical data. I might suggest two station counts – one of actual stations contributing from within the cell, one for stations contributing from within the cdd. The former being a subset of the latter, so the latter could be used as the previous release was used. Well, got stncounts.for working, finally. And, out of malicious interest, I dumped the first station’s coverage to a text file and counted up how many cells it ‘influenced’. The station was at 10.6E, 61.0N. The total number of cells covered was a staggering 476! Or, if you prefer, 475 indirect and one direct.” Henry chance November 25, 2009 12:31 pm Ray (12:20:28) : Only in their world that tree-thermometers are better than real thermometers. Amazing Yep. The tree ring data from 1 tree has the power to over rule sat and human gathered readings. You betcha. Colin W November 25, 2009 12:32 pm As a software engineer I ask: where are the test cases that prove the proper functioning of all this code? Surely there could be test data sets that could be fed in and check that the output is as expected, before applying it to real data? Test handling missing stations, duplicated stations, wildly varying Tmin/Tmax to generate alerts during generation. If this is not done then a simple programming bug introdiced when modifying code will remain hidden and be very difficult to discover. Only code reviews/blind luck would catch this, without test cases. SteveSadlov November 25, 2009 12:33 pm Calibrate to land only poleward of 20N? That takes the cake. Joe November 25, 2009 12:36 pm Finally, someone mentioned Nyquist! It is about time. Hank Hancock November 25, 2009 12:39 pm Jonny B. Good (12:22:06) : Purchase proprietary data products from independent sources: 12,000 Pay programmer to adjust 1940’s and hide the decline: 85,000 Pay publishers to publish the results: 1 case of beer (18.95) Travel to Tahiti: 9,462 Take Andy Revkin out to dinner: 350 (including wine and cheese) Senate investigation: priceless! kato November 25, 2009 12:40 pm I starting to think “climategate” is going to turn into a 100,000,000 (or so) grant to CRU for software engineers to clean up the mess. Jones will be the sacrificial lamb, but he’ll walk with a huge severance package since he brought the huge grant in. Never let a good crisis go to waste, you know. Bob Clark November 25, 2009 12:40 pm Someone should see if MythBusters would like to take a crack at re-constructing the series, Just for Kicks. REPLY: There’s no explosions or high speed crashes involved, doubtful they’d be interested. Climate science can be excruciatingly dull compared to TV science. – A Arn Riewe November 25, 2009 12:40 pm Mark (11:33:11) : “I’d like to know what the “decline” is. Is it temperature?” I’ll take a stab at your question with an offer to have anyone else correct it. The decline is not in the temperature record, but in the proxy data(tree rings, etc.). During a “calibration period”, the temp data is matched up to proxy data for good correlation. The CRU problem is the well known “divergence” that occurred between the proxy data and the temperature record, i.e., the temperatures went up, but the proxy data went down. To hide that decline in the proxy data, the temperature was spliced onto the end of the proxies at a convenient point (1940-1960). Voila, no more divergence Which begs the question: if the proxies diverged after this period, why couldn’t they have diverged before the era of instrumental temp records. Any takers? Andrew November 25, 2009 12:42 pm Of the prople that work there what names do not appear in the emails, what names do not appear as part of a progam or data filename? November 25, 2009 12:49 pm Slashdot comments has an interesting link to a Finnish TV documentary where the reporters discovered the ‘climate scientists’ had flipped a temperature chart that was showing cooling to show warming instead. How do you say Gotcha! in Finnish? Vincent November 25, 2009 12:52 pm Does anyone even know what this code is supposed to do? Ian C. November 25, 2009 12:54 pm We ‘programming geeks’ try to comment our code so we can understand it when we go back to revise it, sometimes years later. Since we expect that we are the only ones who will ever read it, we tend to be very honest in our comments, especially “why” we include/exclude/fudge something. Fudge factors are normal when trying to account for ‘real world’ data with an imperfect model. Anyone involved in modelling knows this. You have to have some way to account for factors that are not understood. The idea is to find a way to bring the results of the model into line with real world’s data. It is never suppposed to be used to twist the data to create an artifical world, which is what this nightmare is trying to do. D. King November 25, 2009 12:54 pm Ron de Haan (12:15:08) : Great link Ron. You’ve got to love Singer. “The Climategate disclosures over the past few days, consisting of some thousands of emails between a small group of British and US climate scientists, suggest that global warming may be man-made after all – created by a small group of zealous scientists!” Wasp November 25, 2009 12:56 pm Averaging day and night temperatures has been reported as enhancing perceived warming in England as daytime alone shows less, or no, warming. This was highlighted this summer, which was dull and miserable. Our esteemed Met Office( see list of usual warmist suspects) put out some spin that it was warmer than usual when they included the night. As trees grow in the sunlight while eating CO2, perhaps the tree ring proxies reflect only daytime conditions. This would make them different from the “real” temperatures if these included the night. This might hide any decline in daytime growth of trees if spliced on after 1960. Eric November 25, 2009 1:00 pm yep – I noted the past tense without surprise. Maybe in academia you could do that in code, but not as a professional in the private sector. Not for long anyway. Robinson (11:17:25) : I’ve done some programming myself. I used to put in swear words in the code all the time. In fact, I would even use the F word and variations thereof for variable and object names, LOL. That isn’t considered very professional in my business, to be honest. Roger Knights November 25, 2009 1:02 pm M.A.DeLuca (10:42:18) : “Hysteria, I’m not so sure. O’Reilly has, I believe, said that Global Warming is real and something needs to be done about it. So did McCain during his bid for the Presidency. That indicates a fraction of the conservative base had been convinced this was a real issue that needed to be addressed.” I saw a comment somewhere (here?) a couple of days ago that McCain has, in the past two months, backed off from his support of CAWG. Jean Bosseler November 25, 2009 1:03 pm Sorry, Statistics sans Frontières (10:24:11) juan (10:35:09) ‘I’d imagine that was due to an overflow.’ This type of incident is clearly signaled with another error message and the programmer would know, at least I hope he is knowing what he does. A very, very negative number is still a number and not an owerflow! Eric November 25, 2009 1:05 pm Ray (12:20:28) : “Only in their world that tree-thermometers are better than real thermometers. Amazing!” it is actually much worse that that. Certain special kinds of tree-thermometers that show the desired signal (identified b/c they show the desired signal) are better than actual thermometers. In the 1960s these special tree-thermos stop showing the desired signal and real thermometers become better. There is no exaggeration in the above statement. No need for it. It is absolutely unbelievable to me that this crap was published. Ed Scott November 25, 2009 1:06 pm Climategate: Alarmism Is Underpinned by Fraud November 25, 2009 – by Ian Plimer http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/climategate-alarmism-is-underpinned-by-fraud-pjm-exclusive/ Stefan November 25, 2009 1:07 pm It is as if climate research is a small field that someone decided to exploit for political purposes. But instead of doing things professionally, they just made up data and fudged methods. The fact that it was fudged together on a shoestring by some researcher up all night, is all the more to the cause’s benefit. If they’d decided to do things rigorously and professionally, there would be no results to speak of, they’d have to say, “come back in 10 years” and see if we have anything we can reliably speak of then. November 25, 2009 1:14 pm But these emails were gotten illegally and CA others are pseudo and non-scientific blogs and Mandia was right. Thus saith a AGW proponent in a comment on my blog. LOL November 25, 2009 1:15 pm People are already talking about the legal implications of all this. Joanne Nova makes a salient point when she says; “Australia is in the extraordinary position of passing legislation that is known to be based on fraudulent science“. Canada Free Press says ‘Greens to be to account‘. SpencBC November 25, 2009 1:17 pm I remain unconvinced that this story will ever see the light of day in MSM. The Canadian and US govs are well on track to introduce a 20% decrease in CO2 by 2020 and I think Copenhagen will move us dangerously close to a global agreement in principle. The science no longer matters. The money, research and legislation already dedicated to this will pass by shear inertia. We are to late to stop it. I just talked to my local MP here in Canada and he was so politically evasive its not even funny, and he is a die hard conservative. I got the real sense that the fix is in and nothing can stop it. To little to late. Only one thing remains. Mass revolt! By mid January we will see people in the streets, perhaps even dying over this issue! The Copenhagen agreement is the most draconian shift of power and sovereignty I have ever read. Folks, you are on the edge of losing all your rights! JoeFromBrazil November 25, 2009 1:18 pm Pamela Gray November 25, 2009 1:20 pm I have done my fair share of hypercard programming (loved that language). HyperTalk supports most standard programming structures such as “if-then” and “repeat”. The “if-then” structure is so flexible that it even allows “case” structured code. The code “F*** This” seems to be missing its “If…” part. What comes after the “Case if…” in order to fill in the “…then F*** This” statement? I can think of a few “If” fill ins. “Case if field (found out) then (F*** This)” comes to mind. And my apologies for very rusty Hypertalk. It has been FOREVER since I have used it. And to really show my age, I cut my computer teeth on a WANG that had the motherboard taking up the entire basement wing of the old VA hospital in Portland. Those were the days. The old WANG terminals wouldn’t let you use swear words. If you did the programmer had put in subroutines that gave you a lecture on using foul language at work. Squidly November 25, 2009 1:20 pm Roger (10:33:00) : I have worked as a professional programmer for more than 20 years, and I think that the language in these comments is strange, to say the least. I mean – I have often been swearing over poorly documented spaghetti code – (almost) as bad as this one – but I have NEVER put the swearing into writing. In my opinion, this stinks. It seems that the author of these comments WANTED the world to see them. He is certainly writing to another audience than his fellow programmers. So there are two possibilities: 1) Either, the programmer (Harry?) is the whistleblower, or 2) This is a trap. I suggest you try working for a defense contractor on DOD, DHS coding projects then. You obviously need to get out of the house more often. This is no trap. I am sympathize with Harry completely. Been there, done that. This is nothing new… Squidly November 25, 2009 1:21 pm oops .. meant to say: “I can sympathize with Harry” Mildwarmer November 25, 2009 1:25 pm I may not understand any of the arguments, but never have I been more convinced about something than I am here. This is shocking. Phillip Bratby November 25, 2009 1:27 pm Magnus November 25, 2009 1:27 pm Have anyone noticed this reasonig regarding FOIA in file FOIA\jones-foiathoughts.doc “Options appear to be: 1. Send them the data 2. Send them a subset removing station data from some of the countries who made us pay in the normals papers of Hulme et al. (1990s) and also any number that David can remember. This should also omit some other countries like (Australia, NZ, Canada, Antarctica). Also could extract some of the sources that Anders added in (31-38 source codes in J&M 2003). Also should remove many of the early stations that we coded up in the 1980s. 3. Send them the raw data as is, by reconstructing it from GHCN. How could this be done? Replace all stations where the WMO ID agrees with what is in GHCN. This would be the raw data, but it would annoy them.” Second option seems quite revealing…. jh November 25, 2009 1:30 pm Robinson (11:58:42) : Ironically, the University of East Anglia has a Computer Science department Apparently & according to the emails this dept. has more FOI requests than CRU! Go figure! Dan Absher November 25, 2009 1:30 pm I heare some time ago that there is no such thing as a global average temperature. The idea is meaningless and about as useful as calculating the average phone number out of the phone book. It looks like the folks at the CRU have produced numbers that are about as useful as the average phone number. DocMartyn November 25, 2009 1:35 pm ” 1Spectre4U (10:31:54) : Now I am convinced it was an inside job.” Imagine that you wanted to evade an FOI request, and all future ones, one would do a round of cleaning of programs, data files and emails. BUT, you would want to make sure you didn’t throw anything important away. So have a dedicated recyclying bin. Put everything potentially dodgy in there, and go through it to make sure that you are not throwing away anything you might need. Put programs in there; then one at a time upload them and read all the read me comments. Keep the ‘censored’ one. Someone could raid the trash and find out what is being thrown away. Andrew November 25, 2009 1:35 pm “I have worked as a professional programmer for more than 20 years, and I think that the language in these comments is strange, to say the least. I mean – I have often been swearing over poorly documented spaghetti code” Having written hundreds of thousands of lines of code, much of it in, believe it or not, qbasic, I can assure you, these comments int he code don’t shock nor surprise me. I wrote much worse in my code. When its 3am, you’ve been staring at a screen for 40 hours straight and you are trying to debug subroutines somoene else wrote, sometimes in a different country, trust me, you’ll write some serious stuff in the comments! Adam Sullivan November 25, 2009 1:38 pm I think that Phil Jones should get 10 to 20 tree rings in jail for this. Jonathan Dumas November 25, 2009 1:40 pm RE: Mark (11:33:11) : I’d like to know what the “decline” is. Is it temperature? Hi Mark, No. It is a decline in a series of values that are supposed to match temperatures. Actually, these numbers are functions of some tree ring width or density. They use these numbers as ‘proxys’ for old temperature, i.e., numbers that are supposedly the best they can come up with for temperatures, given that there were no thermometers then… These proxys do a decent job at matching actual temperatures for the earlier part of the short period (couple of centuries) for which we have thermometer data. But somewhere in the middle of the century, there is a problem. The proxys and the temperature take very different paths, temperatures going well up, and proxys going down. They don’t pick up the last 50 years warming at all. That’s why many question their use as proxys for temperature going back 2000 years: How do we know if trees picked up warming signals then if they do not do now?? This is called the ‘divergence problem’. Climate Audit has nice posts on this. I know that Climate Audit can a tough read for the non scientifically inclined, but it is the best site out there for these questions. for example: http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=570 AKD November 25, 2009 1:46 pm NPR has actually published a somewhat balanced story, with quotes Christy and Curry: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120846593 R.S.Brown November 25, 2009 1:47 pm Here’s a link to the BBC story on the CRU “hack”: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8370282.stm This was originally posted at the start of last weekend. It went from being a “Science and Environment” entry to “Technology” to both and now it’s buried again under the “Technology” header. So far, the text hasn’t changed from when they first posted it. Stop by there via the link to beef up the internal “hit” counters to keep even this pitiful bit of BBC coverage active. November 25, 2009 1:47 pm Glenn November 25, 2009 1:49 pm I found the problem with “APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION” that I couldn’t find in my downloaded file FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\briffa_sep98_d.pro In my file it’s in \documents\harris-tree\briffa_sep98_e This file starts out with the comment: ; PLOTS ‘ALL’ REGION MXD timeseries from age banded and from hugershoff ; standardised datasets. ; Reads Harry’s regional timeseries and outputs the 1600-1992 portion ; with missing values set appropriately. Uses mxd, and just the ; “all band” timeseries ;****** APPLIES A VERY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION FOR DECLINE********* old construction worker November 25, 2009 1:50 pm Petition the Law Makers to Stop this Scam Take it out of EPA’s Hand They say we’ll loose a little Freedom, what’s the fuss Freedom is Cheep there’s plenty of it It was only bought with the others blood The Stick is broken Open your eyes The MWP was grafted Upside Down Real Temperatures can’t be found Stop believing, The IPCC lies Set may CO2 FREE, STOP insanity I Will Not go down that California Road to Prosperity The Question remains, the Question is bound What side will You be on, LAW MAKER As the Team goes Down Will You fight for my Liberties Or sell your Soul for a piece of gold? So, make your case CO2, that “Evil Gas”, Rules the Climate if you can Or declare CO2 a non pollutant Petition the Law Makers to Stop this Scam By FIRE ANT So, Harry read_me, have you sold Your soul for a piece of gold? Eric November 25, 2009 1:50 pm Phil Jones is the director of the CRU. His own email correspondence (even before this leak) said that the CRU had lost original raw data files (even though the CRU founding was, in part, to document and create a record of historical temperatures). Comments in the source code indicate they lost their entire database of cloud data prior to 1995. Comments in the HARRY_README file say show that they had no source code management system in place – taking 3 years to get the code working again after the original author disappeared (died perhaps?). The source code itself used to collect and process temperature data (I am a s/w engineer and have been staying up ’til midnight each night to do preliminary source code reviews) is awful and does not meet any semblance of modern software quality standards that inspire confidence in accuracy or maintainability. The internal organizational culture, per the emails, is a dysfunctional mix of paranoia and tribalism. (I have an MBA too and have had a lot of training on organizational behavior issues and dysfunctional management) He must be held accountable for his own and his staff’s loss of data and poor quality tools. (Would you fly in an airplane if the plane’s aeronautical design model was written like this code?) On the basis of his utter failure as a manager, he must be fired. Even George Monbiot is now calling for his removal within days. George E. Smith November 25, 2009 1:54 pm “”” Adam Sullivan (11:58:14) : Seems to me that “calibration” of tree ring data is a bit of a joke. For the modern periods where we have the highest quality records available we see the “recalibration” where the numbers get “fudged” (the scientific term used in the code is “fudge factor”) in order to make a “calibration” work that makes the pre 1900 data reflect cooler temperatures than if the data had been calibrated to post 1900 data. “”” A tree of any significant (climatically) size, is a relatively voluminous three dimensional object. If you core drill such a tree to obtain a sequence of samples of tree rings, it is the sampling equivalent of sticking a drill into some arbitrarily chosen rock face at some altitude somewhere in the rocky mountains; well maybe the Alps if you are European, and studying the rock samples from the surface to the extent of the drill, and then claiming to know the age, or temperature, or some other historical information relating not only to the rocky mopuntains (or alps; but to also a very lareg are surrounding those mountains. Anyone who has seen a sizeable tree crossection in a museum or a park display, can clearly see, that even in a single section, the tree rings are far from uniform thickness, and one would expect every other property of the material to change around the tree, depending on whether it was on the sun side, or shade side of the trunk. Throw in the additional change in section with height , of the section, and you can see that a core sample is an extremely poor sample of a large three dimensional object. About the one thing we can say about that core sample, is that we are fairly confident of the age of each ring layer. Then certain compositional changes in each layer could be indicative of other parameters, such as C14 dating each ring sample, to get a picture of C14 production rates, since the real age of the sample is known. But as a thermometer; try putting a wooden tongue depressor in your mouth, and then asking the doctor to look at it to see if you are running a fever. A totally crazy idea to believe that tree rings through thick and thin can, tell the temperature under which they were laid down; uncorrupted by any other variable, such as available water, sunlight, soil nutrients and so on. But for a real crazy idea; pray tell me how a sum of squared values (of a real physical variable presumably) can ever go negative; let alone continue to do so. Has anybody ever actually read on a real instrument with the suffix “meter”, or “ometer” any imaginary number of even a complex number. What physical processes yield observable values that can be actually measured, that are imaginary or complex . Engineers at least tend to take the position that if they can get an answer (mathematically), it must be the real answer; so they don’t worry much about existence theorems. No engineer could care whether an absolutely convergent infinite series converges; but mathematicians feel they have to prove that is true. So nyet ! on your increasingly negative sum of squares parameter; it’s a gremlin in your spaghetti code. BrianMcL November 25, 2009 1:58 pm If this is what Dr Phil had to do to get a graph that looks like the American temp trends we’ve really got to wonder which cherries have gone into their pies. That’s another way of saying if CRUtemp has such a tenuous grasp on reality and it’s the same as the other 2 leading temp indicies then presumably they must be wrong too? KRuddWatch November 25, 2009 2:00 pm BOTO (09:17:11) : Hi Anthony, last dinner at Copenhagen! I love it! http://i47.tinypic.com/mrxszt.png Great picture, but I have a question. Which one is Judas? I must object I really must. This artwork does NOT include Prime Minister Kevin Rudd of my country Australia ( the one with the dodgy data – see above). Now Kevvy is a Friend of the Chairman at Copenhagen and -as he is wont to do – a great strutter on the international stage especially when the big fellas (like Obama) are there too. He believes unquestioningly in the IPCC and is about to wreck the country that 2 generations of my family have fought for with a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme law. This cretin really deserves to be in the picture – so please fix! PS He would do a beautiful JUDAS. Claude Harvey November 25, 2009 2:02 pm All these nasty interpretations of the CRU programmers’ notes are really just a simple problem of linguistic translation. You folks simply do not understand “AGW speak”. Let me enlighten: “Artificially adjusted” means “teasing a signal out of random noise – I’ll know when I’ve found it by the smile on Dr. Jones face”. “Real” means “something the general public can measure with their own thermometers”. “Very, very negative” means “very, very positive” (it’s sarcasm, you dolts!) “Dummy stations” means “smart stations – the ones on which to place the greatest statistical weight – they weren’t slipped into the base for no reason,” (sarcasm again). “False references” is a slang term meaning “all data that ever came out of Australia”. “Oh fuck this” means “This body of work is so pure and elegant that I have developed an unnatural attraction for it.” John Galt November 25, 2009 2:09 pm Roger Knights (13:02:50) : M.A.DeLuca (10:42:18) : “Hysteria, I’m not so sure. O’Reilly has, I believe, said that Global Warming is real and something needs to be done about it. So did McCain during his bid for the Presidency. That indicates a fraction of the conservative base had been convinced this was a real issue that needed to be addressed.” I saw a comment somewhere (here?) a couple of days ago that McCain has, in the past two months, backed off from his support of CAWG. Your premise is wrong on two points: 1) Conservatives do not have a list of talking point they must believe in. 2) The term conservative means different things to different people. Senator McCain is a Republican, not a conservative. I don’t know many people who would call McCain a conservative, except for a handful of issues. O’Reilly has said it’s obvious pollution must be doing something to the planet — which shows he believes greenhouse gases are pollutants. November 25, 2009 2:10 pm 1) I don’t understand the technical issues referred to in the above notes and I suspect none of the people saying ‘this is proof of fraud’ understand them either. 2) I can’t believe anyone is surprised by coders swearing and getting frustrated with the code they are working on. It doesn’t mean anything in itself, except that everyone hates their job sometimes. Conclusion: I am not able to draw a conclusion from this data. Anyone who thinks they can draw a conclusion from it is just seeing what they want to see. DocMartyn November 25, 2009 2:11 pm “Robinson (11:58:42) : Ironically, the University of East Anglia has a Computer Science department: …………………………………………………………… The fact is that they have the expertise on campus to engineer a decent piece of software.” I tried to get a computing mathematician/statistician M. Sc. Student for a Summer or for a project while I was part of UCL. No way. The departments were not keen on letting the little birds out of the nests and doing actual problems. It was too difficult to mark their assessment if they actually helped scientists at the coal-face. There is a Statistics unit at UCL, and in most other large Universities, who will aid you in your stats. The main problem is the ‘road to Cork’ problem; too many scientists take their data to the stats people at the end of a study, rather than before they start. Slight changes in experimental design make all the difference to what statistics one can apply. I had a good experience with them, it is disconcerting when they tell you they are not interested in your data, but in what you want your data to be able to explain in a testable manner. We should have to go back to the basics I’m afraid, and teach the Ph. D students both ethics and statistics, right at the beginning as it is apparent that the mentoring system has failed massively. Can you imagine what it must be like for the Ph. D’s and Post-Doc’s at UEA now? They have screwed up their whole lives by association. Phil M November 25, 2009 2:11 pm Just for the sake of fairness, please bear in mind that ‘hide the decline’ is referring to the ‘divergence problem’ – the divergence problem is the fact that the tree-ring data doesn’t track temperature after about 1960. – the tree-ring growth has actually declines since then in many, but not all, NH tree-ring data sets. – so the hockey-teams hide this by stopping the plots in 1960 or 1980, and also seem to mix in a bit of real-temp, in order to give their proxy plots a nice up-tick at the end, as if to say ‘the plot would have continued to go up had we not stopped here…’ – although the decline has been known about for 10 years or more (mentioned in the 1998 Nature article), the reasons for this decline are not known…. – so I do think it is under-hand to ‘hide’ this decline, even if it is ‘hidden in plain view’ so to speak…. – once could speculate that if the proxydata doesn’t track temps reliably in the current time, then they may not track-temp in historical times as well….. Also, the programmer Harry is dealing with getting the HADCRU temp v3.0 going…not hockey-sticks… fred November 25, 2009 2:13 pm Yeah, I know, I’m an a$$#0!e, but I’ll tell you what’s going to happen. The poor schmuck who wrote these comments is going to be blamed for the whole fiasco…UNLESS he can PROVE that he passed these complaints along to Jones. Otherwise Jones will be SHOCKED, SHOCKED, I tell you, to find out that these things were going on and he was not told. Whoever you are you’d better start looking for cover, because they are coming after you. Write it in stone. Henry chance November 25, 2009 2:17 pm “One of the most damaging emails was sent by the head of the climatic research unit, Phil Jones. He wrote “I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow – even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!” Censorship and manipulation. Joseph in Florida November 25, 2009 2:21 pm Hey folks, we have another climategate. This one is down in New Zealand. http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=550&Itemid=1 “There have been strident claims that New Zealand is warming. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), among other organisations and scientists, allege that, along with the rest of the world, we have been heating up for over 100 years. But now, a simple check of publicly-available information proves these claims wrong. In fact, New Zealand’s temperature has been remarkably stable for a century and a half. So what’s going on?” Researchers find records adjusted to represent ‘warming’ when raw data show temperatures have been stable. The pdf file is unbelievable. It should also be worldwide news. I wish we had “publicly available” information here in the USA. 🙁 KlausB November 25, 2009 2:22 pm Found on Icecap: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/global_warming_nz_pdf.pdf A comparison between longterm raw and adjusted temperatures from New Zealands NIWA. Climategate Episode II – Upping The Down Under ? fred November 25, 2009 2:23 pm The corollary to my 14:13:55 is that you will know they have his cojones in a vise when he starts waffling about how it wasn’t really that bad and people are “taking it out of context”. Can’t blame him. Trevor November 25, 2009 2:23 pm Probably been said elsewhere but: “Here, the expected 1990-2003 period is MISSING – so the correlations aren’t so hot! Yet the WMO codes and station names /locations are identical (or close). What the hell is supposed to happen here? Oh yeah – there is no ‘supposed’, I can make it up. So I have :-), This is dynamite Bring on the inquisition tallbloke November 25, 2009 2:26 pm ; Certain boxes that appear to reconstruct well are “manually” removed because ; they are isolated and away from any trees LoL. :-)) mathman November 25, 2009 2:26 pm I am a professional mathematician. My only experience with Fortran was a GE program built to compute the path of a sounding rocket (GEMASS). I make no claim to be a programmer, aside for my elementary excursions into computing pi to 2000 digits, using an early version of Pascal, and some early experiments with the Mandelbrot set. The code which has been published is laughably bad. No wonder the authors refused all requests for the publication of the code. The problem is not in the emails. The problem is in the code. There is no evidence that the code was ever reviewed, either by a competent programmer or by a peer review agency. This is not science; this is a political crusade masquerading as science. When one writes code, it is for the purpose of uniform treatment of a collection of data, as one does with inventory code, accounts receivable code, or any code which processes and interprets raw data. That is, of course, all that a computer can do: a staggering number of computations in order to make sense of otherwise unintelligible data. Just think of the aerodynamic computations which are now routine: one builds a teraflop machine and tests all of the variations in air flow around an aircraft fuselage, obviating the necessity for model building and wind tunnel testing. The reason: making fiddling changes in the fuselage amounts to a trivial tweak of the code, rather than the skills of a model maker. Aircraft are now designed and built by CAD/CAM, because it is cheaper! When one fudges the code in order to alter the raw data, this is called fraud. This is as bad as the Nobel Prize given out a century ago for curing cancer. The programmers were not able to compute the distances between temperature sensing sites? Absurd. This is a trivial exercise in spherical trigonometry. The inability to use the appropriate language to handle text versus numbers? This is a very expensive joke, at our expense. If you cannot include in your documentation the use of unique temporary file cache names, the explicit format of your data files, the precise algorithm used to process the data, and the exact parameters which are used to smooth your data, you have garbage. Smoothing data is a routine exercise; it is used all the time in handling my favorite kind of data, which is the collection of recorded magnitudes of astronomical objects (the search for variable stars, invisible orbiting planets of other stars, and so on). All such data must be smoothed, because measurement is inherently subject to uncertainty of measurement (thank you, Gauss). The standard normal curve of error always applies. The measurement of temperature has only been possible for three centuries or less. When Thomas Jefferson first began his recordings, that was a new thing in the United States. Minimax thermometers are even newer, and thermoelectric temperature sensors newer still. All attempts to infer temperatures before the days from the first calibration of temperature on a digital scale are just that: inferences. And unless one is prepared to defend and separate the effects of rainfall, cloud cover, human activity, animal activity, volcanic activity, to say nothing of other variables which are involved with plant and animal growth, we are left with huge gaps in what we know, as differentiated with what we infer. There is literally no excuse for this ridiculous trash. All of the participants must be immediately prohibited from any further employment in any scientific endeavor or publication in any scientific journal. Al November 25, 2009 2:29 pm Johnathan Dumas: “These proxys do a decent job at matching actual temperatures for the earlier part of the short period (couple of centuries) for which we have thermometer data.” There’s some issues with this. Dendroclimatology has not progressed to the point where they can walk up to a tree, examine the external factors (treeline, soil, elevation, bark) and determine whether it will have a respectable chance of being a decent proxy prior to the coring. Nor is it typical to attempt a true calibration after the fact. (By sequestering some data, etc.) So they tend to take far more samples than they end up including in the final analysis – because lots of the trees “Don’t appear to have any temperature signal.” When you combine that with the divergence of the self-same trees that were previously considered decent proxies as time progresses, you are running across a completely fatal flaw. It is a very strong sign that you’re observing some correlation – but don’t have true causation. They’re coring 100 trees (that all meet the “best criteria” for siting etc.) and picking the 10 with the best correspondance with local temperature. Then sweeping the reevaluation of the exact same trees under the rug when they fail to continue correlating. (See: Ababneh.) as well as obstructing other who would like to recore the identical trees. They’re making the fallacy of assuming they have a valid proxy because it happens to line up sometimes. Robert Wykoff November 25, 2009 2:30 pm I found the line of code in the program that calculates Temperature Tw = 58 + 6 * Log(CO2/ 280) / Log(2) REPLY: It appears they are assuming a basline CO2 value of 280 PPM. LouMac November 25, 2009 2:35 pm Pieter F (09:16:40) : “It just gets better and better (worse for them, that is). The question remains: is this enough to overcome the momentum acquired by the AGW ” Not at all, it was never about the science, so why should it? Fred from Canuckistan . . . November 25, 2009 2:37 pm “Michael Manns articles have been published in well respected peer reviewed scientific journals” English translation . . me and my buds do the peer-review-each-other thing and since each back is well scratched, we can have our papers published and keep out the papers of non members of our mutual admiration and back scratching club. Or something like that . . . and we do the same thing when we write the IPCC reports Phil November 25, 2009 2:39 pm “Averaging day and night temperatures has been reported as enhancing perceived warming in England as daytime alone shows less, or no, warming.” – Wasp This rings bells – have read something similar about day and night temperatures before, probably at CA. Was it that increased night temperatures are an urban heat island effect? Arg, anyone remember this one? (Met Office was announcing today that 2009 begs to be hotter again – BBC are happy to jump in as if being “one of 10 hottest years” is unusual – when you’re on top of a big hill, every step is a high one!) tomm November 25, 2009 2:44 pm Do anyone seriously think that a non-partisan review board can be put together to sort all of this out? 95% of those who would be appointed to it already believe that there is no need because “the science is already done”. The only way to shake things up is to come up with a serious class action suit, see it through the courts and get a big pay out. Maybe some of the people squeezed out of jobs or blocked from publishing in professional journals might have a case??? After all they have suffered professional and personal trauma. Also get the courts to mandate a review of all the information and findings. I am not a lover of our activist court system in the US but they can mandate that things get done when the politicians refuse to move. And we have a Supreme Court that might be sympathetic. Larry Geiger November 25, 2009 2:49 pm Someone asked what this Harry thing is all about. From my reading of things, he is trying to duplicate the results of the original 1.0 and 2.0 versions in a new version called 3.0. It appears that along the way, they really did lose either some data, the instructions on how this works, or the people that originally ran it (Tim??), or the code, or several of the above. My take is that Harry was assigned to take what code he could find and make v3.0. To do that he had to first recreate the original results. If it couldn’t reproduce the original results, then it would be obvious that something was wrong. YMMV. DocMartyn November 25, 2009 2:49 pm Anyone interested in trees should read up on earthworms and their reintroduction into North America by the European colonists. Here is a gem; DOI 10.1007/s10530-009-9523-3 Tree rings detect earthworm invasions and their effects in northern Hardwood forests Evan R. Larson, Kurt F. Kipfmueller, Cindy M. Hale, Lee E. Frelich, Peter B. Reich Biological Invasions (2009) ISSN 1387-3547 (Print) 1573-1464 (Online) Alvin November 25, 2009 2:51 pm [ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEiLgbBGKVk ] REPLY: already on the main page of WUWT but thanks – Anthony Quondam November 25, 2009 2:53 pm Do not the two plots in the following reference illustrate the “trick”? http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/2009/nov/homepagenews/CRUupdate Myranda November 25, 2009 2:53 pm If it’s that bad, maybe it’s time to start thinking about shooting ourselves. Anyeone here got any good reason why not? Mike the QE November 25, 2009 2:54 pm Getting a negative sum of squares was a neat trick. tallbloke November 25, 2009 2:56 pm Colin W (12:32:58) : As a software engineer I ask: where are the test cases that prove the proper functioning of all this code? Surely there could be test data sets that could be fed in and check that the output is as expected, before applying it to real data? Test handling missing stations, duplicated stations, wildly varying Tmin/Tmax to generate alerts during generation. If this is not done then a simple programming bug introdiced when modifying code will remain hidden and be very difficult to discover. Only code reviews/blind luck would catch this, without test cases. Perceptive comment. I doubt the climate ‘scientists’ involved ever found time or advice for this sort of rigor. Richard M November 25, 2009 2:57 pm I just saw this issue discussed on CNN for the first time. The spin was amazing. They stated the old 2500 scientists support AGW and mentioned Obama was still planning on going to Copenhagen and committing to a 17% reduction in emissions by 2020 and 80% by 2050. They also quoted polls that stated 72% of Americans believed in AGW. So, the game is on … Rattus Norvegicus November 25, 2009 2:58 pm I hate to say it, but some of the code cited in FOIA\documents\osborn-tree6\briffa_sep98_d.pro does not exist in my copy of that file. Specifically the line which creates the densall object is not in that file. Also, if you look at that file you will see that the yearlyadj values are *NOT* used in the code. At one point they were, but in the extant version of the code that line is commented out. fred November 25, 2009 3:02 pm Re: Robert Wykoff 14:30:24 Cripes!! That’s 6 degrees Fahrenheit per doubling! Editor November 25, 2009 3:12 pm Robinson (11:58:42) : > Ironically, the University of East Anglia has a Computer Science department: > The fact is that they have the expertise on campus to engineer a decent piece of software. Yes, but do they teach software engineering? I like to distinguish between science and engineering as: Science is the act of developing new tools (e.g. wheels, thermometers, IR sensors) Engineering is the act of developing new systems out of tools created by scientists. (e.g. cars, weather stations, remote sensing satellites). I know several very good computer scientists who could never become good software engineers, they get distracted by new things and don’t focus on the system at hand. The lack of polish, inattention to details, likely development on smaller datasets than what Harry is using, etc, shows up throughout Poor Harry’s Diary. The overflowing sum of squares in the standard deviations calculation is a likely a good example. Sarah from Saskatchewan November 25, 2009 3:14 pm I sincerely hope the police investigating the hack/leak from CRU have retained a backup of the CRU server at the time the crime was reported, so that this code can be verified to be exactly what CRU have been working with. Otherwise we might find in the course of the investigation that CRU’s server has unfortunately suffered a catastrophic and unrecoverable failure. Whoops.. global warming ate my hard drive. Glenn November 25, 2009 3:15 pm Rattus Norvegicus (14:58:28) : Try \documents\harris-tree\briffa_sep98_e Bruckner8 November 25, 2009 3:23 pm I’ve made a good living as computer programmer,and I do stuff like that all the time. If you saw my code, you’d see comments like “The customer insists that I do this even though I know this make the outcome skewed in a [positive/negative] direction.” In one case, I was adding on to an existing program that needed to find the volume of spheres, to calculate material loss (metal). The original program had the volume of sphere as 3/4 (PI)(R³). Obviously, the fraction has been flipped by mistake. When I brought this to the customer’s attn, I was told to leave it alone! For if I changed it, the LOSS would’ve counted LESS (cuz Vol was correct, and higher),and thus the loss reimbursement (which translated into local stimulus dollars) would be lower! So I added a comment that said: “Of course I know the correct formula for volume of a sphere, but the customer insists on the wrong formula.” I have numerous examples of customers insisting on SLOWER-PERFORMING processes, because they didn’t want to raise the expectation of the end users, who might learn to expect data to come back “instantaneously.” So I would add comments like “If you ever want this process to perform better, do X, Y and Z. The customers has requested such-n-such roadblock.” My point: This happens ALL THE TIME, and the programmer is almost ALWAYS working “for someone else,” and not for themselves. “just doing as I’m told.” November 25, 2009 3:24 pm Proving a graph was produced by a programmer who was working with approximations, estimates and a specified goal may say something about that programmer and the process. The code can be replaced, the programmer can find another job. But the fact remains, humanity is polluting the world and could easily do something about that. Global warming and climate change are symptoms of pollution. It is not very progressive to carry on poisoning the air. Free, clean energy is available if we invest in the right things and create solutions. The oil industry is not interested in free energy. But humanity will evolve more quickly. Phil M November 25, 2009 3:26 pm Quondam (14:53:36) : Do not the two plots in the following reference illustrate the “trick”? http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/2009/nov/homepagenews/CRUupdate – yes – you can see how the proxy data stops in 1960 or 1980, and doesn’t follow the real-temp – without the two black lines, you don’t actually get the hockey-stick – but I think the up-tick on the red-line is the ‘trick’ BOTO November 25, 2009 3:31 pm Claude Harvey (14:02:31) : http://i49.tinypic.com/2gy8w9v.jpg there you live, dont you? Peter S November 25, 2009 3:34 pm Anthony Joseph in Florida and KlausB’s messages above concerning ‘Climategate II’ in NewZealand deserves a look and a post of its own. KlausB’s linked pdf – of manipulated temp records – shows a direct connection with CRU… “Dr Jim Salinger (who no longer works for NIWA [National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research]) started this graph in the 1980s when he was at CRU (Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK) and it has been updated with the most recent data.” REPLY: I’ll have a look – A DaveE November 25, 2009 3:41 pm 1st. The HARRY_READ_ME file is a collection of notes from the programmer, (unknown), to Ian ‘Harry’ Harris. J.Ferg (09:55:10) : E.M.Smith is better qualified to answer this & I believe GISTemp does the same thing with station Temps. You note that Months with 9999 are ignored but what isn’t obvious from that is that there may only be one day of readings missing. The obvious thing to do would be to take the average of the adjacent days to salvage the month but they don’t, they just write the month off. Talking of E.M. Smith. I believe he’s fixed the -ve sum of squares problem, though I’ve not been over there to find out. Hank Hancock (12:39:10) : I’m so happy I’d put my drink down, you would have owed me a new keyboard & monitor 😉 DaveE. anaon November 25, 2009 3:45 pm American Free Thinker has an EXCELLENT article the uncovers the code that actually shows tampering with tree ring proxy temperatures to make it match instrument temperatures from 1930 to 1994 in a folder attributed to Michael Mann and between 1904 and 1994 in other code titled briffa_Sep98_d.pro and briffa_Sep98_e.pro. From the article: http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/crus_source_code_climategate_r.html In fact, workarounds for the post-1960 “divergence problem,” as described by both RealClimate and Climate Audit, can be found throughout the source code. So much so that perhaps the most ubiquitous programmer’s comment (REM) I ran across warns that the particular module “Uses ‘corrected’ MXD – but shouldn’t usually plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to the real temperatures.” Here’s the “fudge factor” (notice the brash SOB actually called it that in his REM statement): yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904] valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor These two lines of code establish a twenty-element array (yrloc) comprising the year 1400 (base year, but not sure why needed here) and nineteen years between 1904 and 1994 in half-decade increments. Then the corresponding “fudge factor” (from the valadj matrix) is applied to each interval. As you can see, not only are temperatures biased to the upside later in the century (though certainly prior to 1960), but a few mid-century intervals are being biased slightly lower. That, coupled with the post-1930 restatement we encountered earlier, would imply that in addition to an embarrassing false decline experienced with their MXD after 1960 (or earlier), CRU’s “divergence problem” also includes a minor false incline after 1930. And the former apparently wasn’t a particularly well-guarded secret, although the actual adjustment period remained buried beneath the surface. Plotting programs such as data4alps.pro print this reminder to the user prior to rendering the chart: IMPORTANT NOTE: The data after 1960 should not be used. The tree-ring density records tend to show a decline after 1960 relative to the summer temperature in many high-latitude locations. In this data set this “decline” has been artificially removed in an ad-hoc way, and this means that data after 1960 no longer represent tree-ring density variations, but have been modified to look more like the observed temperatures. Others, such as mxdgrid2ascii.pro, issue this warning: NOTE: recent decline in tree-ring density has been ARTIFICIALLY REMOVED to facilitate calibration. THEREFORE, post-1960 values will be much closer to observed temperatures then (sic) they should be which will incorrectly imply the reconstruction is more skilful than it actually is. See Osborn et al. (2004). Care to offer another explanation, Dr. Jones? anaon November 25, 2009 3:46 pm The debate about the contents of the HARRY_READ_ME.txt and the validity of the programming and modelling techniques is something only experts and argue over. However, what the lay person only needs to know this about the programming (which they can verify for themselves from the HARRY_READ_ME.txt file), this file is a THREE YEAR journal of a CRU programmer describing everything he tried with the data and models in an attempt to REPRODUCE existing results CRU had published. Comments in the file make it clear that “HARRY” tried FOR THREE YEARS (2006-2009)to recreate CRU’s published results AND FAILED. Do you all see the REAL significance of this because it is absolutely fatal to the credibility of anything CRU has produced. What we have here is a documented THREE year effort by a CRU programmer, who had access to all the data, access to all the code, access to all the people who developed the code and the models and still HE could still NOT duplicate CRU’s OWN results. If he can’t it simply means the CRU’s results cannot be reproduced even by themselves and so there is no point anyone else even trying — CRU themselves have proven it’s a waste of time and so they themselves have proven their own results are plain rubbish. That means any “peer reviewed” document CRU produced along with any other papers that cited the CRU papers are based on data the CRU themselves can’t verify. Besides, the absolutly sorry state of affairs in the data handling and software managment the HARRY_READ_ME.txt reveals, the utter and total mess of CRU data and software this document reveals is WHY CRU has not released its data and model software. Given the CRU is one of the most, if not the most cited sources of climate data — upon which trillions of dollars of economic policy is being set, the importance of what the HARRY_READ_ME.txt file reveals becomes scary. A very nice layman’s summary of some of the issues in the HARRY_READ_ME.txt can be found here http://www.devilskitchen.me.uk/2009/11/data-horribilis-harryreadmetxt-file.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheDevilsKitchen+%28The+Devil%27s+Kitchen nadine November 25, 2009 3:48 pm Copenhagen will go on pretending that nothing has happened because it is part of what documentary filmmaker Ann Mcllhenny calls “the moveable feast.” But I do not despair that “we are too late.” The global warming alarmists are at the stage where there are gearing up to demand more more than millions for research and obedient lip service. Now they are gunning for trillions in payments and global governance to enforce the payments. There is going to be pushback from the nation states of the developed word against this, and those doing the pushing are looking for evidence. They have reasons to protect the CRU leak story from being suppressed, as the German princes had reasons to protect Martin Luther from being burned as a heretic. November 25, 2009 3:51 pm John Peter (10:55:08) : “…What do you think about this one? It looks as if the “data adjustment contamination” has infected New Zealand as well….” Looks like they need to call in Phil Jones’s dog to take care of that nasty old ‘uncorrected’ data. November 25, 2009 3:52 pm “The poor schmuck who wrote these comments is going to be blamed for the whole fiasco…” I don’t think so. It’s pretty clear from the comments that he has been told what to do and that he doesn’t like it. He clearly states that he has been told to make up data. I think that the threat to bring law enforcement into this is an idle threat. CRU has way to much to loose to start a legal process against the whistle blower. If they do, the whistle blowers defense attorney will have access to anything and everything that is in the CRU archives – as though he doesn’t already have enough to justify whistle blowing. CRU would like to have this thing crawl under a rug and go away, not to have it fought out in a highly publicised legal battle. SteveSadlov November 25, 2009 3:52 pm Nicholas there is no such thing as a free lunch. b_C November 25, 2009 3:53 pm Among the alarmist crowd, I can readily see where all this controversy about code is leading … http://tinyurl.com/y9zpzlw hysteria November 25, 2009 4:00 pm Nicholas Alexander (15:24:49) [snip] no one here is suggesting wilful and wholesale pollution is a good thing – far from it. I work for a major international oil company and I do not have space to tell you about the time, effort and resources we spend to minimise our impact on the environment – steps which cost$\$ by the way.
The issue is whether the science that has been shown to be “proven” is, in fact, flawed.