Atlantic Tropical Update – TS Danny looks to follow in Bill's "cold track" footsteps

Updated 8AM PST Thursday 8/27

Danny continues.  It now has 60 mph sustained winds.

TS Danny is visible in the center of the image below. This satellite image will update every 30 minutes.

Animate this image: >>> OR Switch to Hurricane Sector View

Click for larger image

NOTE: Commenter “nogw” tips us to this unique sea surface temperature image that appears to show the “cold track” left by hurricane Bill (last week off the east coast turning toward Nova Scotia) as it transported energy from the ocean to the atmosphere.

click for larger image

note the "cold track" off US east coast- click for larger image

The probability plot for 120 hours out shows Danny following a similar track and likely to make a sharp turn to the northeast, affecting NY, MA, ME and Nova Scotia, but with no landfall. With SST’s lower in that area, it may not strengthen much.

[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL  HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009

1100 AM EDT THU AUG 27  2009

...CENTER OF DANNY WOBBLES WESTWARD...

INTERESTS FROM THE  CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.  A  TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR

PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER  TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE  UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND  WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER  SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR  AREA

OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR  NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER  OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1  WEST OR ABOUT

320 MILES...510 KM...NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 550  MILES...

885 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH  CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST  NEAR

13 MPH...20 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO  CONTINUE

TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN  FORWARD

SPEED FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60  MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING  THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP  TO 205 MILES...335 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL  PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT  INFORMATION...

LOCATION...27.5N 73.1W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60  MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL  PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL  HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 PM EDT.
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43 thoughts on “Atlantic Tropical Update – TS Danny looks to follow in Bill's "cold track" footsteps

  1. The jet stream is still in its Northern La Nina track (regardless of the El Nino condition we have in the Pacific). It is my understanding that this track allows these Atlantic cell storms to stay in their normal “up the Eastern Coast” track instead of pushing them South and into the Gulf of Mexico. Is this also the precursor to mixing North Altantic layers, causing upwelling of cold water and furthering the flip from warm to cold in the AMO?

  2. When the global air temperature is declining then the equatorial air masses appear to contract with all the air circulation systems moving more equatorward.
    I wonder whether that increases the opportunity for tropical storms in the Atlantic to be picked up by the mid latitude jet streams and turned north eastward to join the mid latitude depression tracks rather than driving westwards into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
    Is there any relevant study or body of data on the issue ?

  3. I admit I don’t know enough about these kinds of subjects but I’m curious about something. Could the fact that the Gulf Stream is closer to shore (which resulted in that wonderful story about how warm the water was off of Boston) have any effect on pushing Bill and now Danny quickly up the coast and keeping them from making landfall between Florida and the Carolinas?
    “Yes it is a little stronger this year and maybe a little closer to the coast than usual.”
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/20/sea-surface-temperatures-warmest-on-record-but/#more-10122

  4. Stephen Wilde (06:46:24) :
    Here you see a cold track in the atlantic, also a very peculiar nino/nina with hot water mostly above the equatorial line in the pacific. What is your interpretation of this?

  5. NOAA’s Jane Lubchenco has previsouly speculated that the winds causing upwelling are caused by global warming winds.
    Lubchenco,
    “We are seeing wild swings from year to year in the timing and duration of the winds that are favorable for upwelling. … This increased variability in the winds is consistent with what we would expect under climate change.”
    Google this “jane lubchenco upwelling dead zones” and see the extensive reach her fabrication has traveled.
    Her ginned up link bewteen upwelling and AGW has circled the globe in science publications and many other media/blog reports.
    It’s the perfect example of how the warmers can make up a whopper and it get’s delivered to the “reality” of AGW by rumor spreading.
    So much so that regulars at RC insist convinved the link has been scientifically established.
    And they do so with pompous certainty.
    So egregious is this unethical approach to science that school children in Oregon are now being told global warming is causing ocean dead zones of the Oregon coast.

  6. Steve S. (07:02:12) :
    NOAA’s Jane Lubchenco has previsouly speculated that the winds causing upwelling are caused by global warming winds.
    Lubchenco,
    “We are seeing wild swings from year to year in the timing and duration of the winds that are favorable for upwelling. … This increased variability in the winds is consistent with what we would expect under climate change.”
    Exactly,Steve, Lubchenco is a Gorish acolyte and does not care,see or want to know about anything that might disturb her dogma of warmist theology.Like the “dead zones being a part of the nature of the Oregon coast for-centuries….
    As we speak, the former Sec.of State for Oregon,Bill Bradbury(who my wife and I know from his days as an Sixes river hippie) and local south coast broadcaster,
    -more than enough qualifications to talk about Global Warming- is going
    about the state yet selling his bottles of “Dr.Gore’s Global Warming Cure..”
    Preaching to little children and their parents the dangers if being “Sinners in the
    hands of an angry Gaia…”

  7. Wow! This is a beautiful image. Is there some way to calculate the energy “used up” in running this tornado (anyone)? It also seems to be a sufficient swath to reduce the NH’s anomaly to negative over about 15 to 20% of the temperate-tropical zone.
    Also, the overall image doesn’t look like that of an all-time record high July SST touted recently by NOAA. This might be a good addendum to Willis Eschenbach’s “Thermostat Hypothesis” – recall he posted it on WUWT and proposed that the oceans and atmosphere have an automatic temp regulating mechanism:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/14/the-thermostat-hypothesis/
    Hurricanes appear to be significant SST regulators too.

  8. Danny is now visible on the visible satellite loop. It has an obvious circulation, but does it have a warm core or any other tropical characteristics? How are these measured?

  9. Nogw (06:59:24) :
    “Stephen Wilde (06:46:24) :
    Here you see a cold track in the atlantic, also a very peculiar nino/nina with hot water mostly above the equatorial line in the pacific. What is your interpretation of this?
    The link:
    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomw.8.27.2009
    I’d guess that the pattern in the Atlantic is the lagged effect of the last La Nina which was quite strong.
    In the meantime there is a weak El Nino in the Pacific which will not feed it’s effects into the Atlantic for a year or two by which time we could have another La Nina and continued net global cooling.

  10. “Pamela Gray (06:43:14)
    The jet stream is still in its Northern La Nina track ”
    I think the jets are more equatorward during a La Nina event and more poleward during El Nino with that poleward situation enhanced during a positive PDO phase and the equatorward situation enhanced during a negative PDO phase.
    How do you see the jets as more to the north (poleward) during La Nina events ?
    I wonder whether you are referring to the increased latitudinal diversions of the jets that occur when the equatorial air masses are smaller during a cooling period.

  11. Stephen Wilde (08:44:29) :
    Perhaps it is the first time we see a track like that. It appears now because it took the last remnants of heat of that area and it couldn´t have happened before, at least from the 80´s to 90´s. Interesting times indeed!

  12. I have seen these cold tracks with other storms and asked in a different thread last week if a persistent pattern of storms that track along the gulf stream might be able to influence the heat transported to the Arctic if enough storms took that path in a year. If instead of tracking across the gulf stream in to Florida or the Gulf of Mexico, a storm rides along he stream for a significant distance, I would think it could extract quite a bit of heat energy and dump it into space.
    So what I was wondering is if there is any correlation between years with storms that track up the Atlantic coast and colder winters in Ireland.

  13. Pierre Gosselin (09:11:03) :
    “With SST’s lower in that area, it may not strengthen much”.
    Low SSTs?
    This recent graphic suggests the contrary:
    http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

    The track is in it too, but like a small oval area, and as in the NOAA map still warmer areas are closer to the coast, just waiting for the new global warming ERASER!

  14. Eric (skeptic) (08:31:35) :

    Danny is now visible on the visible satellite loop. It has an obvious circulation, but does it have a warm core or any other tropical characteristics? How are these measured?

    If it were a cold-core (extratropical) storm, it would have lateral temperature differences, i.e. warm and cold fronts, to provide the power for the heat engine. So, just where and how it formed say tropical, it would be confirmed by air temperature reading by satellite and airplane, etc. Extratropical storms have a broader wind field than do tropical storms, you can watch that transition when Danny passes New England and merges with a cold front.

  15. What I see is Nino gone by winter Boreal, and Neutral to Nina by early spring.
    I keep hearing from my warmist cohort that this is going to be bigger than the 1998 Nino.Ok.-“Because Hansen says so!-He’s a scientist you know!”…

  16. Nogw (09:32:47)
    I agree. New observations from new technology and a ‘sea’ of new data to interpret.
    Looking at your graphic I see the anomalous coolness in the South Atlantic being filtered across the equator and guided by the Earth’s rotation and the continents on either side into a funnel of anomalous coolness circling up into the Gulf Stream.
    I suspect that it is that oceanic pattern that is affecting the preferred track of the tropical cyclones and the air circulation systems above rather than those cyclones causing the pattern (though they may well enhance and/or prolong it).
    Only continuing observations will resolve the issue.

  17. If I remember Bob Tisdales video correctly there was a atlantic type of “El Nino” early this summer (now La Nina it seems). Those warm sst’s went north. Could Bill & Danny be a further extension of heat transport from SH to NH? Any suggestions…

  18. Well usually it is the north east corner of a hurricane that creates the most damage, because of the CCW rotation and the generally northward travel.
    So that section of Danny would be closer to Bill’s cold track, so it would tend to be getting turned off in that region.
    We need to get back to studying the ice falling all over the edge of the Greenland basin; that seems a much more imminent threat than Danny.
    And the at red arctic ice line is still perking along nicely and not getting down to the 2008 level; shameful, that these things don’t comply with predictions

  19. The discussion I read yesterday said Danny’s circulation was only “slightly” more tropical than extratropical. It was apparently a tough call in calling it a “tropical” storm.

  20. crosspatch (9:45:06) …You mean “Danny (Boy)” aka “Londonderry Air” aka…[HWGA…]
    Ric Werme (10:43:55)…But as you may know the “Hurricanes of the Arctic(and
    Antarctic)”
    the polar lows, may have warm cores….

  21. I agree this is a rather peculiar Nino. Just back from a visit to the heart of Ninoland (Galapagos) where it is supposed to be hot, wet and green during a Nino. It was cool, dry and brown.
    The locals said it was rather cloudier than usual for the time of year, otherwise nothing special.

  22. Intersting ‘cold track’, which I would think is due more to cold water uplifting, than atmospheric energy transport.
    Were the High July SST’s significantly impacted by the unusually low level of tropical atlantic storm activity?

  23. Thanks Ric Werme (10:43:55)
    I’m guessing there’s an occluded front of sorts to the east of the core. On the discussion they call the core a low level circulation, but it looks more like a mid level low to me. That could push midlevel air into the front from the west. On visible satellite it’s more of a mess than a tropical storm.

  24. “He’s a scientist you know!””
    Yup. But he isn’t a climatologist. He’s an astrophysicist.

  25. STAFFAN LINDSTROEM (12:15:07) :

    Ric Werme (10:43:55)…But as you may know the “Hurricanes of the Arctic(and
    Antarctic)” the polar lows, may have warm cores….

    No, I don’t, however several nor’easters that “bomb out” (the scientific term is bombogenesis!) off the new England coast develop something that looks like an eye. The suspicion is that while the water is way too cold to support a true tropical storm, the even colder air aloft combined with the baroclinic energy of the nor’easter limits how far the inrushing air can come and an eyewall of sorts develops. Or something like that. Unfortunately, no one has ever been ready with a hurricane hunter plane and daring enough to fly into such an icy storm.
    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/188/
    http://www.toddgross.com/todd_gross_new_england_we/2007/02/bombogenesis_an.html

  26. The NHC is not longer expecting Danny to become a hurricane, though they note some models still do. From http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

    DANNY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED
    WITH THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
    IMAGERY.  IN ADDITION...BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SSM/IS TOTAL
    PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR DANNY
    IS DRY.  THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT LACK OF
    ORGANIZATION...SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOW AT BEST
    DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.  THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DANNY
    TO STRENGTHEN FROM 24-36 HR AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDER AN
    UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  AFTER THAT...IT WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG
    SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...WHICH
    SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
    

    The happiest tropical storms have an anti-cyclonic region above them to help blow out all the air that the storm convects upward. The notes about dry air can really clobber a big storm. While shear blows off the tops of the convection, entraing dry air cuts off convection at its knees and can amazingly quickly knock a cat 5 storm down to cat 3 or 2.
    For something as messed up as Danny, dry air just seems to be another factor against development. I think the relatively light wind means that it doesn’t suck a huge volume of dry air so it takes more time for the impact to be realized.

  27. I just looked at the most recent “live” radar/satellite images in animation, and it appears Danny is already turning to the east. Actual path seems to be NNE, with a movement of about thirty minutes of longitude. It’s hard to tell, because the storm center is too disorganized to see an “eye”, or an actual center.

  28. I have dove the Gulf of Mexico for 32 years, sometimes after these storms have passed through. The normal surface temperature in the Gulf for summer can exceed 88F, and in the wake of these storms, the water is indeed colder to a depth of (as much as) 20 feet. Generally, the temperature difference is physically as striking as this satellite photo suggests. “Experts” have written that heat is only removed from the top 4 feet or so, but that is grossly in error in my experience. Indeed, these things are heat engines, and remove large quantites of heat from the surface of the ocean. For those of us who experience them regularly, it is striking how hot it is inside the hurricane itself, unlike inside a thunderstorm.
    Gerry Parker

  29. Admittedly much of the discussion here is over my head, but appreciate reading the threads.
    I have learned a ton since stumbling on to the site.
    I have a question, maybe something for Bill Gates and Co to consider.
    Are hurricanes and typhoons possibly Mother Nature’s way of releasing some excess heat from the oceans?
    And do the last 2 tracks, Bill and Danny, suggest now the water is not warm enough to feed from?
    Thanks everyone.

  30. Waddya mean “no landfall?” What do you think Nova Scotia’s made of? Scotch mist? Remember who kept you lot in whisky during prohibition, eh?

  31. Gerry Parker (18:26:30) :
    I have had the same experience (diving)- and agree with everything you just said.

  32. Well Danny’s a big flop too; keep the kiddies away from the coast, in case there’s a wave out there; alternatively, if you had taught them to swim, when they were young; you wouldn’t have to worry about waves out there.
    But hey; the weather channel has to have something to talk about besides the weather !

  33. This is August 31st, 4 days after this topic and the cool ocean path still persists. I note the waters off W. Africa where these things are born is also a lot cooler.

  34. Well here we are into September and there doesn’t seem to be an active hurricane thread here at the moment.
    So where is all the West African weather going? Have a look at this evenings EUMETSAT image of West Africa. That’s a lot of convection for Southern Algeria and the Atlas Mountains.
    From Algerie Meteo

    ESTIMATED TIME for Thursday 03 September 2009: Northern Area: Western Region: Time Clear to partly cloudy with thundershowers developing cells isolated highlands. Central and Eastern Regions: Time Clear to partly cloudy with some rain on stormy regions of ‘inland. The winds will be moderate near the coast, from west to south-west to the western regions and variable regions of Central and East. They are weak to variable regions of the interior. The sea is beautiful. REGIONS SOUTH: In the wilaya of El Bayadh, Djelfa, Biskra and Laghouat: Time cloudy to cloudy with some rain stormy local. On Wilayas from south of Adrar, Tamanrasset and Illizi: Activity pluvio stormy locally moderate. Elsewhere clear day to partly cloudy. The winds will be variable moderate to sometimes strong enough on the Far South uprisings with sand.
    ESTIMATED TIME FOR FRIDAY 04 to Sunday 06 September 2009: NORTHERN REGIONS: Weather generally sunny partly cloudy with thunderstorms developing homes insulated on regions of the interior during the afternoon / evening. Maximum temperatures vary between 28 ° c and 31 ° C near the coast and between 30 ° c and 34 ° c inwards with peaks of 36 ° c the wilaya: Relizane, Mascara and Ain Defla day Friday. The winds will be weak. REGIONS SOUTH: Veiled in locally Cloudy on the wilaya: Adrar, Tamanrasset and Illizi with development of homes isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon / evening on the Far South and the Hoggar / Tassili. Maximum temperatures vary between 40 ° c and 44 ° c in general, except on the Hoggar / Tassili where temperatures vary between 28 ° c and 32 ° C. The winds will be weak.

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