Updated 9AM PST Friday 8/21
Bill continues to weaken and is looking less organized. It now has 115 mph sustained winds.
Bill is visible in the center of the image below. This satellite image will update every 30 minutes.
Animate this image: >>> 
OR Switch to Hurricane Sector View
The probability plot for 120 hours out shows Bill likely to make a sharp turn to the north, affecting Nova Scotia, but with no landfall. It’s remnants may affect northern England:
BULLETIN HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009 CORRECTED FOR TRACK PARAGRAPH ...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SATURDAY. BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE OF BILL. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.
Thank You, oh churner of quiet waters.
Hey, should I leave the state this weekend? The guy on the TV sure was all hot and bothered about his first “storm” of the season.
One MPH away from poof. Isn’t it great that we can measure with such precision things we cannot hardly even see?
Yet the temperature data from real live thermometers goes missing.
Need something to change the focus from Obamacare, how obvious is this.
Aha! “The Watt Effect” ☺ ☺ ☺
Reply: Watts
Come on, now. It’s August and we’re over two months into the season. Unfortunately, hurricanes aren’t like sunspots — they don’t totally disappear.
What Watts, where Watt was wrong? Weird, Why?
It’s a sign!
Two named storms in twelve hours!
The end times are upon us! We are to be punished for ignoring that Great Prophet Gore!
{whispering in the background} What?
{more whispering} Oh, okay.
Never mind – it’s just weather.
Clive (15:54:59) :
Aha! “The Watt Effect” ☺ ☺ ☺
Reply: Watts
What?
The man’s name is WATTS.
Back to the hurricanes, please. Rather sharp swing to the north, I think, is called for.
It´s somebody taking a shower bath down there. Just two tropical showers.
“Hurricanes united will never be defeated!!” Raise red signals!!
As long as we don’t talk about the economy, we should be safe.
Oops…
(aren’t we supposed to have tropical storms this time of year?)
Anthony– You have the ability to stir the pot in the opposite direction and defuse this bad girl and boy.
This is one heck of a late starter…anyone have some data from before the AMO shift?
# 2008: May 31
# 2007: May 9
# 2006: June 10
# 2005: June 8
# 2004: July 31
# 2003: April 20
# 2002: July 9
# 2001: June 4
# 2000: August 3
# 1999: June 11
# 1998: July 26
# 1997: June 30
# 1996: June 19
# 1995: June 2
I Warned you. I Begged you.
But, would you listen?
NOOooo.
Oh, and for those who want to follow the evolution of this hurricane season there is one pretty good website-which happens to be run by Roy Spencer-here:
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2009/Hurricane-Atlantic-2009.htm
The Weather Channel this afternoon was just giddy about these two storms. Excited, hyper, exuberant, …. Thrilled even! Caught the two anouncers even dropping back into the “this is the most severe …” language that “will have damaging winds” terms they are used to needing for real hurricanes.
even the storms over FL this afternoon had “tropical rotations” ..
Latest spaghetti models show:
-Ana heading to FL and the Gulf but possibly dissipating as it hits land masses along the way
-Bill curving north and likely spinning away from any North American landfall
Rambly musings….
1) Mike McMillan … The Watt Effect? Just a play on “The Hansen Effect.” (Search here.) Just funnin’ ☺
2) Those winds that are making the wx channel dudes all giddy…that’s just a calm day here in southern Alberta. (The wind stopped once and we all fell over. ☺) We actually call our local hockey team, the Hurricanes.
3) AGW is raging so badly here in Western Canada, that it froze in some places early this morning … August 15!! Ugh! Jasper, Alberta’s frost-free period this summer was 42 days. Woohoo! ☺
Cheers!
Clive
A site as informative, in it’s own way, as WUWT:
http://spaghettimodels.com/
The guy does it as a public service, for free. Best Hurricane site.
Where’s the edit button?
infirmative = informative
/sigh
I find it hard to get excited about these two storms (or most storms of the past 4 years, for that matter) when their winds are just 30-40 mph. Heck…where I live the max wind speed for every month this year has never been less than 44. In fact, so far this month, the max wind speed has been 62.
Why do they raise all that ruckus about piddly little systems that are little more than a brisk Oklahoma breeze? (“Where the wind comes sweepin’ down the plain”)
Ana is not a tropical storm. Bill at least shows some circulation. Strange reading the forecast discussions, they seem to be more like wishes.
One the other hand, nice little hurricane in the Pacific. Over there NOAA keeps predicting it to fall apart and/or move N of HI islands. Has moved due west lately and still holding together more so now than in the past few days. Predicted to diminish as it passes over cooler waters though we have just been told that we have record warn oceans!!!
The development a little southwest of Tampa should be of more concern for the fellows at NOAA. May well become another Opal for the panhandle.
Is the performance of those hyper weathermen on TV bonus related?
Why don’t they just catch all the butterflies in the world and put them in a sealed room where they can flap their wings all they want without causing all these hurricanes?
Oh. I know. The greens wouldn’t even let us do that…
Jimmy Haigh (23:46:29) :
But Jimmy, there is an officially (PETA no less) approved way to capture bugs:
https://www.petacatalog.org/prodinfo.asp?number=HP220
Jack Simmons (00:21:06) :
“… there is an officially (PETA no less) approved way to capture bugs”.
Hmmm. Not sure about this for butterflies though. It looks as though it would damage their hurricane-causing wings.
Hey – maybe it’s the other way round? Maybe ‘global warming ‘ (I don’t buy it myself) was caused by hurricanes caused by butterflies flying? I can see the headlines in the MSM: “AGW cuased by butterflies”.
I just know those warmist BBC hacks are salivating in anticipation…
Mike McMillan (16:45:29) :
Clive (15:54:59) :
Aha! “The Watt Effect” ☺ ☺ ☺
Reply: Watts
What?
Whats on first, whose on second….
By using Mannian methods and climate models I can say that we´ll have over 300 storms by the end of the year,
The best site I know to watch hurricanes is: http://www.stormpulse.com/
Great graphics. You can overlay Atlantic forecast model tracks, U.S. radar and clouds. They are currently showing the projected storm track for Anna. Bill is there but no track yet. You can scroll to see clouds anywhere in the world.
More on stormpulse… You can also see the forecast track for Bill as well as TD4 by clicking on the active storm list. Pacific tracks are also available.
RACookPE1978 (20:13:18) : “even the storms over FL this afternoon had “tropical rotations” ..”
I guess they did (you could see it on local radar).
Power Grab (20:56:17) : “Why do they raise all that ruckus about piddly little systems that are little more than a brisk Oklahoma breeze? (”Where the wind comes sweepin’ down the plain”)”
Cause these piddly little systems can turn into devastating monsters very quickly.
I’ll put my money on them spinning North and away from the usual LZ’s. Perhaps doing the twist right into Nova Scotia?
I hope I am correct… (Well, maybe not the Nova Scotia bit)
Tom in Florida (05:14:22) :
Cause these piddly little systems can turn into devastating monsters very quickly.
—-
Maybe they “can” but for the past 2-1/2 seasons have not. Is it a coincidence that the 2007 and 2008 seasons were quiet–just as the sun has been quiet? The sun is still quiet.
I saw an impressive X-class flare on spaceweather.com in 2005 not long before Katrina got big. There is nothing like that happening now.
OTOH–there was an “unexpected” aurora mentioned on spaceweather.com on 8-14-09. The usual indicators were quiet before it happened. Perhaps that was the influx of power needed to zap up some storm systems.
This is such an interesting solar cycle, isn’t it? If we will, we can probably learn quite a bit about the influence of space weather on our weather. Heh–I’m beginning to think the sun is only the dashboard indicator light, reflecting the influence of the power that comes this way from elsewhere in the cosmos.
Is it me, or has one of them faded away?
Grumbler (02:51:51) :
Mike McMillan (16:45:29) :
Clive (15:54:59) :
Aha! “The Watt Effect” ☺ ☺ ☺
Reply: Watts
What?
Whats on first, whose on second….
Who’s on second!
For a little entertainment, track a storm by grabbing a copy of the 5 day cone about three times a day for the duration of the storm. Then after the storm is over, ask yourself this question. If we can predict the climate in 100 years, we should be able to predict a storm track, never mind the intensity, fairly accurately. How did we do? Cycle through the images of the 5 day cone in order and track the changes.
For a little more fun. Draw a 5 day cone all by yourself. How did you do? Better then the guys spending m/billions?
Looks like Claudette will be named today and make landfall near Panama City, FL tonight. I’m sure the veterans down there aren’t concerned at all. Just have to aim a little further left of the flag with that 6-iron.
Claudette should also dissipate rapidly. Plenty of rain for the SE, though.
Power Grab (06:09:35) : “Maybe they “can” but for the past 2-1/2 seasons have not. Is it a coincidence that the 2007 and 2008 seasons were quiet–just as the sun has been quiet? ”
You might want to ask those in Haiti and the Dominican Republic how they feel about your “quiet” 2-1/2 seasons. Perhaps you have forgotten or are just terribly US-centric.
“Tropical depression four” was named Claudette about an hour ago…
gtrip (22:24:17) :
Paul Coppin (11:46:10) :
Right! And this goes to the very heart of what some of us have been saying on other threads herein. Years ago #4 probably wouldn’t have been “seen” or counted as it will be over land and dissipating in less than 24 hrs from any significant formation. Proof of this is the “No name” storm that hit Tampa area inn the mid nineties. While some of us here on the west coast of FL saw “something” out there yesterday that looked like enough mass and the start of circulation, the NHC/NOAA computers and experts did not. While a lot of people hang on every word the NHC experts say about storms ONCE THEY form, most of us fully realize their track predicting skills include VERY WIDE margins of error and their formation and strength predicting abilities are very weak. Both Charlie in 2004 and Katrina a year later are excellent examples of that fact. That is why if you live along the coast if your smart your self sufficient.
AlanG (04:13:44) :
Thanks. That is a VERY interesting and well done website.
Tropical DISTURBANCE Ana was downgraded. That (Ana) was the biggest reach to “name” a storm I have ever seen. This is what is wrong when agencies make forecasts; they do whatever they can to make their forecasts look correct.
” gtrip (15:39:26) :
Tropical DISTURBANCE Ana was downgraded. That (Ana) was the biggest reach to “name” a storm I have ever seen. This is what is wrong when agencies make forecasts; they do whatever they can to make their forecasts look correct.”
It’s Tropical Depression Ana, just to be clear, and I don’t think it was a reach. The NHC never forecasted it to develop into a hurricane and they have a tendency to be conservative when they name storms. Here’s what they said when making the decision:
DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV MISSION…NOAA BUOY 41041…AND A RECENTLY-RECEIVED ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED.
Using three separate pieces of information, they decided to name it tropical storm Ana. There’s a lot of shadiness and agenda-pushing within the govt, but I’m not sure this was a classic example of such a conspiracy. Plus, they have a long way to go for this hurricane season to matter at all.
As a Floridian I’ve been envious of all the record cold summer reports. The tropical cloud cover might cool things down a bit, though the humidity will be unbearable. We could use a little more rain, just hope we don’t get another loitering Fay.
Steve J (17:13:33)
Neither Ana nor Claudette have shown any cyclonic signatures or low pressure centers that one would consider when classifying (naming) a tropical storm. In my book, Bill should be Ana, Ana should be just another wave, and Claudette TD#3 or 2. Unless of course, we can bore some sediment samples and reclassify Claudette as a Cat 4 or 5 Hurricane!!!
And par for the course, as soon I say Ana is nothing, it starts to show some signs of actually becoming a TD. NOAA’s last update said: VERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ANY RE-STRENGTHENING.
Bill is the only one with any “oomph” and that storm doesn’t look like it will be much of a threat to land. It is currently forecast to turn out to sea before making landfall.
Tom in Florida (11:23:43) :
You might want to ask those in Haiti and the Dominican Republic how they feel about your “quiet” 2-1/2 seasons. Perhaps you have forgotten or are just terribly US-centric.
Maybe I’m just tornado-centric. How many F5s have you lived to tell about?
TD Ana is a good example of more named storms due to better observational tools. Ana adds to this year’s count…but like those super small sunspot specks,100 years no one would notice…
REPLY: Well stated – Anthony
Well put, Kip. 40 years ago that storm is a rain squall moving through the Atlantic/Caribbean. With more observational data and a Saffir-Simpson scale to quantify TD, TS, Hurricane it is now named for the brief period of time in which it was a TS.
How does a TD get alarmed into a Cat 5 threat?
MediaMetrics.
Just flash the teleprompter to have them say whatever you want them to.
If The NHC would have monitored the ANA storm as a wave they might have come up with a better forecast than they have now. It finally looks to be developing into a possible storm with a track that will take it south of Hispania. I don’t have access to the water temps in that area but it should organize and then get pulled north by a slow moving low pressure area that is churning just off of the southeast of the Florida peninsula. Bad news for Cuba but then again, is there any good news for Cuba?
A “Weather Channel” we-need-something-to-talk-about storm:
This from their web page:
“ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall as a 50 mile per hour tropical storm around 12:10 a.m. Central time near the east end of Santa Rosa Island, Florida, just to the southeast of Fort Walton Beach.
As of 1 a.m. Monday morning (Central time), a very small Tropical Storm Claudette still with some 50 mph winds was located just inland near Fort Walton Beach, Florida.
Tropical storm warnings remain in effect from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the Aucilla River, Florida.”
—
50 mph winds are more than a thunderstorm, but this tempest in a teapot is more headline than rainstorm.
Yes, TS#3 is a hoax.
gtrip (23:57:29) :
>If The NHC would have monitored the ANA storm as a wave they might have come up with a better forecast than they have now.
They do, and I’m sure they did. However, they don’t label them as future tropical storm Ana or even TD #xx. From today’s discussion, the next-in-line areas are:
You can get to that from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ , click on Tropical Weather Discussion above the sections on each significant storm. If you look at the archives, I’m sure you can find the mention about the wave that became Ana.
Several of the Ana discussions commented on the expose center of the storm with all the convection displaced to the northeast, an indication of the shear that caused the NHC to stop calling it a TD for a day or two.
I also have an issue with:
gtrip (20:37:11) :
> Neither Ana nor Claudette have shown any cyclonic signatures or low pressure centers that one would consider when classifying (naming) a tropical storm.
Claudette looks pretty lame, but the synoptic maps I see show pressure contours and a low. Winds are 50 mph, well above the depression/storm of 35 mph. If it’s not a tropical storm, what is it? TS that form in the Gulf don’t have to start from a wave so they can start out as a disorganized mess before developing a classic hurricane form.
The NHC is showing more restraint IMHO with naming storms this year. A few years ago the folks at Colorado State were wondering if they’d have to start forecasting more storms due to some marginal sub-tropical storms getting names.
This year there was a July nor’easter that had such a contracted wind field that when it brushed by Massachusetts there was no impact in Concord NH and I was surprised to see it was a major story Boston news. A lot of mets thought it should have been labeled a TS. See http://www.weathernewengland.com/tim-kelley/walks-like-a-duck-tropical-storm-or-not/1004027.html
RACookPE1978 (01:16:43) :
> 50 mph winds are more than a thunderstorm, but this tempest in a teapot is more headline than rainstorm.
Not all 50 mph storms are just equivalent to a strong thunderstorm. Claudette at least didn’t have time to gather much moisture, though I’m concerned about that band of rain going northe through Florida and Alabama. One story suggests
Claudette is also moving, which is very important.
Tropical storm Fay had more time to get organized, more moisture, and was slower. Its peak winds were only 70 mph (while it strengthed over land!), but it caused $560 million in damage and brought over 25″ of rain (63 cm) and killed 26 people, 11 in the USA.
Keep in mind that wind damage only affects areas near the coast, a much bigger area can be devastated by floods. I was in Pittsburgh PA while the remnants of Agnes dumped on Scranton and vicinity (including us).
Wind damage makes the best (most exciting) TV coverage, but storm surge and flooding are the real destroyers.
Oh – I forgot this link to TS Fay – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Fay_(2008)
In years past, the NHC would not have named Claudette. The NHC is better than they were, so I have no problem naming a storm even when it reaches that criteria just for one hour. However, people seem to judge how active a year is based on how many names are used. Thanks to the hype weather machine known as the Weather Channel, this is the case. A tropical storm or subtropical storm can form quickly and die quickly. The number of names used is not a fair metric on how active the Atlantic hurricane season is. The number of hurricanes that form is a better metric.
Hurricane Bill, now.
Wade (06:29:08) :
I don’t see where the argument is with Claudette being named. It had a well defined low level center that lasted well over 24hrs and was verified via aircraft recon and radar. If it was over the eastern Atlantic, it may not have been named because we don’t have those resources out there. Also, as long as I’ve been following them, the NHC is generally more likely to name a system near land than not. Some of that is CYA but we’ve seen examples of storms near the coast that ramp up quickly and unexpectedly. Humberto of 2007 being the most recent example.
I would agree that the number of named storms is not a great method to show activity. There is just too much subjectivity in naming them. Number of hurricanes that form is better. I believe ACE is the best.
The 12Z GFS from yesterday showed Bill veering NW then into the open Atlantic. Looks like the SE will dodge a bullet here. Ana, on the other hand, has a better chance to affect the US.
Now as far as naming cyclones goes, Ana is the one that could be argued about. It seemed to lose its LLC yesterday. The NHC is being very conservative in keeping it as a depression. That said, one thing I’ll credit them for is they are usually open about their decisions as shown in their latest discussion:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/171500.shtml
> Neither Ana nor Claudette have shown any cyclonic signatures or low pressure centers that one would consider when classifying (naming) a tropical storm.
Ana is cyclonic, but only weakly so. The radar signature is currently up on my website.
Before going down through the drain they take that spiral shape…:-)
Off topic I know, but… has anyone else had problems viewing the StormPulse website? It worked fine on my XP and Vista computers, but I can’t get it to display on this Windows 7 computer at work…
If it’s a Windows 7 problem then it’s the first I’ve seen.
Global warming causes droughts. Global warming causes more tropical storms which brings more rain to the drought stricken areas. hmmm
These ice charts on the Arctic have to be incorrect….we are going to be ice free this year. Please get them adjusted asap!!!!!
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
Where is Hansen when you need him?
NHC has stopped issuing advisories on Ana (as well as Claudette, but that isn’t surprising). Bill is the only one left out there for now.
Steve J (14:23:46) :
“NHC has stopped issuing advisories on Ana (as well as Claudette, but that isn’t surprising). Bill is the only one left out there for now.”
From my reading of the situation, Bill will devastate the US economy and pull down the rest of the first world with it if it gets voted through!
Ana and Claudette: we hardly knew ye!
ABC’s morning show tried in vain to feature their guy struggling to stand against Claudette’s gale force winds, but none would oblige on camera. They also touted the “slow start to the season, then ‘boom’…3 named storms just like that”.
Looks like Bill was the only real “storm” worth mentioning….
Call me cynical, but I think there are people out there who would love for a cane like Bill to mimic Katrina to become another poster-child for AGW fear-mongering (maybe hitting NYC or something).
When was the last time New York was hit by a hurricane?
Bill the Cat 2
Interesting … and hilarious.
Last time NY was hit hard was probably Hazel.
Coming from the south coast of Oregon from 1986-2008,I lived through many a Sou’Wester.Winds of 75-80 kts not uncommon.My wife’s cousin who married a guy from Cape Cod, was in a Wellfleet resturant one day when a 75 mph.She had lived on the Oregon coast since 1978. They were very worried.She said to the waiter:”75mph?
you are worried about75 mph?” ” Where are YOU from lady?” the waiter replied.
I would be most worried about the Canadian Maritimes; Nova Scotia, PEI and Newfie. Looks like they might be right in the way. It would be extratropical by then but still a good blow. Wouldn’t want to be on the ferry to Port aux Basques when that thing comes through.
This is interesting:
ScienceDaily (Aug. 17, 2009) — Physicists at the University of Rochester have combed through data from satellites and ocean buoys and found evidence that in the last 50 years, the net flow of heat into and out of the oceans has changed direction three times.
and they dont blame CO2!!!!!
“……….Douglass further notes that the team found no correlation between the shifts and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/08/090814103237.htm
REPLY: thanks for the tip, Anthony
OT – sorry, not getting an option to post on Notes and Tips Page currently. I’ve been following the progress of the 7 or 8 so boats trying to navigate the North West Passage this summer, here’s a summary if anyone is interested:
West to East:
Silent Sound – first to arrive at Iqalukttutiaq (Cambridge Bay) http://www.openpassageexpedition.com/live_tracking.htm
Baloum Gwen – http://www.arcticcalling.net/wordpress/ (French yacht, also just arrived at Cambridge Bay). Therri usually translates the daily blogs into English.
Ocean Watch – http://www.aroundtheamericas.org/ big American yacht also just arrived at Cambridge Bay. Blogs are worth reading, especially about Barrow and the Canadian Inuit settlements they have stopped at.
Arctic Mariner – http://www.arcticmariner.org/ – Two hardy UK Marines is an open 17ft Norseboat which they can sail, row or if necessary, haul over the ice. True adventurers, and to their credit their website does not mention the ‘fragile acrtic environment’ or the threat it faces from ‘global warming’ once. These guys are still west of Cambridge Bay, and have already had to haul the boat over 4 miles of ice.
East to West:
Fleur Australe – another French sail boat which just arrived at Cambridge Bay (from the east) so will very probably be the first to make a sucessful crossing of the passage this summer. Very experienced skipper. No website afaik.
Yacht Fiona – http://www.yachtfiona.com/fnn.htm – left Resolute a few days ago and heading south. Currently stuck in thick ice and have radioed a canadian Ice Breaker for help.
Bagan – http://northwestpassagefilm.com/arctic/ – big yacht also heading south towards Gjoa Haven – about to get into thick ice.
Cap’n Lem, Corsair F-31 UC (sail) http://www.arcticsolosail.com/index.php likeable old boy’s solo attempt which started in the Great Lakes back in April, and got to Labrador but has now postoned 2009 attempt, storing boat at Goose Bay until next year.
Polar Bound – customised trawler skippered by highly experienced Arctric sailer David Scott Cowper, http://www.cruising.org.uk/about/honorary/DavidCowper.shtml but no blog and no-one seems to know where he is.
There is also a Norwegian boat currently halfway along the North East Passage – http://www.seilmagasinet.no/id/31923 – not sure how they got permission from the Russians. Click on:
http://share.findmespot.com/shared/face/viewspots.jsp?glId=0sh4D6qB4SbUlL8PQTx67P76naNiL79ys for location. If they get through I assume they will overwinter in Alaska and then plan to sue the NWP to get back to Greenland/Norway.
Ice charts available at http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/app/WsvPrdCanQry.cfm?CanID=11081&Lang=eng or if it is clear weather you can get an idea of the ice coverage from the realtime satellite images: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/ For some reason both Satellites are not imaging Nunuvut, Greenland and the north Atlantic just now. See http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T092151850 for an image taken on August 3rd when skies were clear across most of the passage.
” Andrew P (23:43:55) : ”
Let us know when a freighter makes the trip.
I wouldn’t consider the passage “clear” until commercial shipping uses it. Until then, it is a novelty.
Thanks Andrew P
I can’t help but smile at the different attitudes of the Royal Marines to the Carlin Crew per this observation from http://www.arcticmariner.org/#about
“It seems from the photos that two days ago you killed a seal and starting dragging it behind the boat. Then yestyerday you had a big fire and cooked it (the picture’s grainy but it looks like the seal in the foreground and you’re toasting strips on the fire?). IS THIS LEGAL? Are there some special Inuit permissions that you’re abusing or is it simply that youy have a gun and there’s no one else around?”
No CO2 guzzling planes or fuel dumps here!
Hi all-
Unlike most people who do think that AGW is occuring, and I do, I don’t think that stronger hurricanes are necessarily part of our future.
Why?
Hurricanes transfer heat from the tropics to the temperate zones.
If the temperate zones heat as fast as the tropics, the average temperature gradients don’t change much, and hurricane intensity could remain about the same.
This makes growth in hurricane intensity a kind of secondary side effect of AGW.
We should be more concerned about direct effects of AGW such as forest fires, insect infestations, the Arctic ice/albedo feedback, and melting permafrost, especially the potentially runaway positive feedback consequences of these direct effects, IMO. We should be especially concerned with traditional carbon sinks turning into carbon sources and increased production of methane from melting permafrost and methane hydrates.
Absence of increases in intensity and frequency in hurricanes, or only a slight increase, does not refute AGW, IMO.
If the temperate zones heat as fast, or faster, than the tropics, the net increase might be small and not statistically significant, I think.
crosspatch (23:49:32) :
” Andrew P (23:43:55) : ”
Let us know when a freighter makes the trip.
I wouldn’t consider the passage “clear” until commercial shipping uses it. Until then, it is a novelty.
Yes, I agree. According to http://trawlercrawler.net/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=103
there is one commercial ship making an attempt on the North East Passage this year:
http://www.oldsaltblog.com/2009/08/beluga-group-attempts-the-northern-sea-route
I’ve lived in Queens and Long Island my entire life (since 1955). Everybody here thinks they know what hurricane is but they have no idea.
I barely remember Donna in 1960 but I do remember my mother walking me to kindergarten (and holding my hand tightly). NYC schools never closed when I was a kid.
I remember Belle (mid ’70s). No big deal. I drove home from an upstate camping trip in the middle of it. More like a nor’easter.
The worst I remember was Gloria in 1985 and that’s what most people here regard as a hurricane. By the time it got here, it was moving very fast (~30 kt) and sustained winds weren’t too bad. Not even very much rainfall. I even went outside a few times during the height of the storm when I wasn’t raining. A few gusts really got my attention, though. Things got bad around 9:00 AM but by 1:00 PM, the sun was out and it was all over. I think Connecticut got it worse than Long Island. Here, there was very little property damage but there were a ridiculous number of trees and limbs down, which took down power lines everywhere. I was without power for 4 days and I was one of the lucky ones. For weeks and weeks, people were placing piles of branches at the curb; each pile generally about the size of a van.
The UK Marines seem to be little different than US Marines.Guess which parties will be the most sucessful?..
To John A: Take a look at the great Atlantic hurricane of September 14, 1944. I know (read: remember) it doing significant damage in central New Jersey. Also, I believe there was one in 1948.
OK, I’m dating myself…
The ultimate path of the storm depends on the strength and speed of a series of upper-level troughs due to pass through eastern North America in the next three days.
However far Bill passes off the New Jersey coast, he should still kick up some watchable surf. Friday afternoon will find Your Correspondent hanging ten at his favorite saloon on the beach at Long Branch enjoying whatever show the ocean is putting on, not to mention tucking into a pint or three of Sam Adams Summer Brew and some excellent lobster quesedilla.
Skoal!
An excellent account of the Great Hurricane of 1938, which redesigned the coastlines of eastern Long Island and southeastern New England is __The Sudden Sea__ by R.J. Scotti
There’s common myth about hurricanes that often circulates in the media here on Long Island. The NWS calculates the probability of a major hurricane striking Long Island as once every 78 years. Since it has now been 81 years since the 1938 “Long Island Express”, you often hear “we’re due” – mostly from ignorant members of the media (not meteorologists), but especially, dumb-@$$ politicians. As if hurricanes are like earthquakes. The probability is the same as it was in 1939 (climatological variations notwithstanding).
Andrew P (23:43:55) :
One swedish yacht is also trying for the Northeast Passage:
http://www.skinnarmo.com/
They are of course fully PC with respect to AGW etc. They are currently trying to round Cape Chelyuskin on exactly the same date as Nordenskiöld did in 1878, having had a great deal more trouble with ice in the Kara Sea than he had. They haven’t commented on this strange phenomenon.
tty – thanks for that, will add to my list.
Uh oh, here comes Bill the Cat2. Better tell Opus to reign him in…
Just flippin loverly I tell you ! Just think of all those Gigajoules getting unstored from the ocean and headed off back out into space where they came from.
Hurricanes are really nifty things when you think about it; Too bad that humans can’t figure out not to built resorts in the paths of Hurricanes. Remineds me of that famous moveie “Elephant Walk” about some British bozos in india or Somewhere in Asia trying to set up shop right where the elephants were taught by their ancestors, was the best way to get from A to B. So the elephants just kept on walking on their same paths. Seems like some jerk ended up getting squished by one of those neomastodons for his trouble; one of those loverly British Colonial movies.
The Hurricanes aren’t likely to pay much attention to where overly rich idiots want to build their seaside palaces.
My bet is on the hurricanes coming out in front.
We need Bill improves to Cat4 and changes its trajectory a bit to the southwest. Orange trees are thirsty dying. We have also plagues of thrips and Tetranychus urticae; again, thanks to El Niño… No, it’s not possible; we had the same plagues last year under La Niña.
Ursus americanus and other animals have been coming from the mountains down to the city. “Experts” say it is due to El Niño, though I have not seen children shooing bears from the mountains. The last year those “experts” said it was La Niña, and the same, I didn’t see girls shooing bears from the mountains. Perhaps it is Bill?
🙂
Gee Bill, don’t go flushing out the arctic ice or we will be capped and traded to death.
NHC eagerness to name every band of thunderstorms is going to get people – enured to wolf crying – killed.
As someone who lives in Halifax, NS, I’m more interested in the post-120 hour tracking. C’mon, Bill, turn a little more out to sea now! 😎
Bill is now a Cat 4. Could there be another storm developing off Cape Verde? Looks like there is a big swirling cloud mass on the radar…
Not to be an alarmist, but folks in New England and the Canadian maritimes do need to keep an eye on this storm. Here is the track from “The Great New England Hurricane of 1938” very similar to Bill.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1938_New_England_hurricane_track.png
It seems to me that if you include evaporation as the major ocean->air heat transfer mechanism, then a hurricane is hoovering an awful lot of heat out of the ocean. Presumably this goes straight up and increases Hadley Cell/trade wind circulation while radiating away the heat from evaporation.
Thus if Willis’s ITCZ cu-nims act as a daily regulator of tropical ocean heat flow, maybe the hurricanes provide a similar seasonal feedback?
Skeptic tank:
A good moniker for anyone who lives on LI, especially in mostly sewerless Suffolk County!
Gloria in 1985 probably hit Fire Island as a waning Cat 2; still, it virtually destroyed the power grid in Suffolk, which had to be rebuilt from the substations up. My cousin in Shoreham was without juice for ten days in an all-electric house; down the road a piece in Rocky Point, another family set, ardent Mets fans all, had no TV for five days just when the Amazin’s, after a decade of struggling for mediocrity, were finally in the midst of a late September pennant race (‘wait ’til next year’ came true, for once).
Bob in 1992 gave the North Shore east of Northport a rather nasty sideswipe, spawning mini-tornadoes and bringing down thousands of trees. Another shining hour for LILCO, or whatever its name is now.
Both of these most recent hurricane impacts on LI occurred when the AMO was still in its cool phase. Also, both storms were coast-huggers disrupted by interaction with land. If Bill’s path were to follow the westernmost edge of the TPC’s current (0900 UTC) probability cone, it would make first landfall on Cape Cod, after traveling over open water significantly warmer (warm phase of the AMO) and would almost certainly bring hurricane conditions to the Twin Forks (hurricane-force winds should extend at least a hundred miles to the west of the center). There are still model runs that bring the storm even further west; a westward correction of a few degrees would bring Bill along the path followed by the Long Island Express of 1938.
It all depends on how Bill interacts with a series of upper troughs. There should be a greater degree of certainty by tomorrow evening. My eyes will be glued to the water vapor loop on the TPC site.
Hmm that implies one needs a temperature/depth profile of the ocean before a hurricane goes by and then one after.
I presume there will have been a temperature drop and that may give an idea of just how much heat was taken from the ocean by the monster, and from what depth range (deeper mixing layer in storm).
One more Long Island hurricane story. Back when __Weatherwise__ magazine was still worth reading, they ran an excellent article on what Hurricane Bob looked like as the eye passed over Block Island, from the vantage of Montauk Point, fifteen or so miles to the west.
Don’t Worry; Be Happy. HOWEVER, if one is going to be an Alarmist, it makes far more sense to fret about this sort of huge hurricane. Be a boy scout: “Be prepared.” Even a 95% probability it goes out to sea leaves that 5% “IF.”
People tend to think the 1938 hurricane caught people off guard because they had no satillites back then. However if you look at its track you can see the 1938 storm was curving out to sea very nicely. The weather beureau was well aware it was there, and paying close attention. However it was only in the final 18 hours that the steering currents altered, and the hurricane swerved back towards land. It also sped up, and charged north at over 45 mph.
Even with all our satillites and other gadgets, a sudden shift in the structure of steering currents could put us in similar shoes. Just imagine the traffic jam, as thousands and thousands of cars all attempted to escape Cape Cod on short notice. (It would make a good movie.) Even there is only a 5% chance of this occurring, Be Prepared.
Bill’s Turning Point
hurricanes by seablogger
Today is a crucial day in the history of hurricane Bill. The hurricane has reached category four force, but it is also fending off some sheer from the southwest. That sheer originates from a mid latitude trough which is expected to weaken and elongate. The hurricane will win. But first it will turn. How soon, and how much? That’s the key to its future track.
There is a lot of divergence in the models. Some do bring weakening Bill close to eastern New England, and a direct hit on Nova Scotia is a distinct possibility. This does happen sometimes. A few years ago hurricane Juan caused extensive damage at Halifax.
Today’s initial turn will determine how much longitude Bill gains before the decisive turn caused by a much more powerful polar trough moving eastward from the Great Lakes. If Bill holds course today with only a slight waver, then there is danger for Cape Cod, down east Maine, and especially Nova Scotia. If Bill responds to today’s sheer by shifting from WNW to NW course, it will stay well out to sea.
From http://www.seablogger.com
You should see what it’s like in south Florida … They are crestfallen now that there were two ‘sploosh’ fizzles and one waving at us.
For a few days the excitement was so great you couldn’t go near the TV weather without protection on.
Molon Labe (03:19:37) : “NHC eagerness to name every band of thunderstorms is going to get people – enured to wolf crying – killed.”
What exact storm do you think shouldn’t have been named and why? Everything I’ve seen has been exactly within their normal guidelines. The only thing I saw was they kept Ana around for a day longer than it deserved, but they were erring on the safe side and didn’t have direct evidence that it had dissipated. As soon as they had a plane confirm there was no closed circulation, they stopped issuing advisories. Do you have a problem with their guidelines, and if so, what would you change?
I agree with Scott B.
In an environment where “climate” and “weather” have somehow become politicized, I do not have a problem with a NHS that is hair-trigger on storms. No matter how much people want to discuss, argue, or debate what is going on out there, it seems prudent to be aware of all storms during this time of year.
Also, this IS one case where the “precautionary principle” actually has meaning. Those things swirling around aren’t vague possibilities of 100-year future issues, as obviously everyone knows.
Nah, let them name every bank of thunderstorms… it’s just more paperwork for them anyway.
Well, if you are an alarmist, it doesn’t realy matter if it makes land fall or not, it is a sign of AGW. Of course, being that the first large storm started in mid august, I think that this is a sign of Global Getting Nicer-ing (GGN).
RACookPE1978 (01:16:43) :
“A “Weather Channel” we-need-something-to-talk-about storm:
This from their web page: “ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall as a 50 mile per hour tropical storm around 12:10 a.m. Central time near the east end of Santa Rosa Island, Florida, just to the southeast of Fort Walton Beach.”
As of 1 a.m. Monday morning (Central time), a very small Tropical Storm Claudette still with some 50 mph winds was located just inland near Fort Walton Beach, Florida.”
From the local (FWB) newspaper on Tuesday the 18th: “A recording station in Destin clocked a wind gust of 45 mph. The highest wind gust in Crestview was 30 mph, while winds at Eglin reached a peak of 38 mph early Monday. The Panama City Airport recorded a 36 mph gust, while Milton clocked a gust to 28 mph.”
I’m just north of Fort Walton Beach (Niceville that had 2+ in. rain) and I doubt we had 35 mph wind gusts, let alone sustained winds.
The Weather Channel has become the “Weather Entertainment Channel.” I noticed a graphic they had last week with a big low spinning clockwise.
Go Bill Go ! Just get out there and stir the ocean; we can use all the global cooling you can muster. Watch out for those little islands out there somewhere. I know a lot of people moved down to the coast so they could watch you guys (and gals) stir the oceans; but you make such a mess of their stuff when you go by. Y’alls be careful out there now, and don’t hit anything rich.
“”” Jimmy Haigh (23:46:29) :
Why don’t they just catch all the butterflies in the world and put them in a sealed room where they can flap their wings all they want without causing all these hurricanes? “””
Not to worry Jimmy; those butterflies probably flap with a Maxwell Boltzmann distribution, so they aren’t likely to stir much if you get them all together. However the heating effect of their agglomeration would be an interesting phenomenon.
Say didn’t something like this happen last year aboiut this time; seems to me they are always having big storms this time of year around Florida; maybe that’s why all the tourists go there to watch and help board the place up.
does anyone think that bill gates and his wild, swirl-producing machine caused this? just kidding, i had heard of bill’s interest in weather modification, but this hurricane looks only to be partially man-made.
@ CodeTech:
“Nah, let them name every bank of thunderstorms… it’s just more paperwork for them anyway.”
Okey-dokey. I’d like to know what they would call the system that dumped a foot or more of rain just north of Enid, Oklahoma earlier this week! Seriously!
Ummm…that’s dry wheat country, y’know….
Another hoax.
George E. Smith (10:47:52) :
“Not to worry Jimmy; those butterflies probably flap with a Maxwell Boltzmann distribution.”
Thanks for putting my mind at rest George! But do butterflies know the flap with a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution? I’m sure that, if I knew that I did that, that would put my blood pressure throught the roof! -and probably increase my core temperature above 98.4 to boot! And I would then, for the first time in my life, contribute to Anthopogenic GLOBAL WARMING. (The caps there were for those harbingers of climate change doom who used to be called global warmers.)
Sideswipe
hurricanes by seablogger
Hurricane Bill has weakened slightly due to continuing upper-level shear, but it remains a large and fierce hurricane as it sideswipes the Leeward Islands. I’ll bet there’s some spectacular surf at St. Martin this morning, as rollers come south from the dark-smudged horizon. It will be the same at Cape Hatteras in a few days, except the cloud edge will be further off — spokes of cirrus streaking in the distance beyond the foaming breakers. At Cape Cod the sideswipe will be closer. Darkness will cover half the sky. Stiff north winds will curl off the tops of mighty waves. Some abandoned houses will fall in the water for sure. Nova Scotia may take a direct hit from the dying storm, or its center may skim just offshore.
It’s worth mentioning that some models turn Bill more sharply as it reaches the latitude of Hatteras, and force it northeast, in which case it will just be a distant cirrus cloud for all points further north. Bill is a sideswiper, a typical September hurricane, shunted aside by polar systems. A big chilly high pressure cell will settle over the eastern as Bill passes. But it’s not September. Models of the coming weeks project conditions normally seen at the equinox. Does this presage a severe winter for the northern and eastern US. Not necessarily, but it may. Meanwhile there is no sign of additional activity in the Atlantic tropics. The three-storm flurry will be over with Bills demise.
From http://www.seablogger.com
Guess their gonna have to bring all the “news” anchors back to New York to experience the edge of this latest “storm of the century that proves global warming and the ice caps are melting and the whole world is drowning and is gonna kill us all, AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!”
Film at eleven.
God is merciful.
wow.. best science blog? congratulations.. hopefully, earth become healthy.. safe our children..
phoenix mattress (08:45:24) :
God is merciful.
Because He provided that the seas were cool so as not to energize up this tropical storm…so…
THEY know it but will keep scaring people.
Happy to report that Bill underwhelmed most Nova Scotians, including me.