Flashback: More from the “weather is not climate” department.
NOTE: These are news stories about unusual July weather in Argentina from 2007 which I thought might interest readers. Please note these stories are not from 2009.
Picture: snow falls over the obelisk, in the center of Buenos Aires. From Clarin.
Killer Cold Snap Grips South America
Argentina’s capital, Buenos Aires, has seen snow for the first time in 89 years, as a cold snap continues to grip several South American nations.
Temperatures plunged to -22C (-8F) in parts of Argentina’s province of Rio Negro, while snow fell on Buenos Aires for several hours on Monday.
wait for it….
From Treehugger:
Snow in Buenos Aires: Was it Global Warming?
“It does not have to do with climate change, though climate change could have cooperated somehow by increasing humidity”.
Teleconnection perhaps?
from the BBC:
Buenos Aires residents came out on the streets to see the snow
|
Argentina’s capital, Buenos Aires, has seen snow for the first time in 89 years, as a cold snap continues to grip several South American nations.
Temperatures plunged to -22C (-8F) in parts of Argentina’s province of Rio Negro, while snow fell on Buenos Aires for several hours on Monday.
Two deaths from exposure were reported in Argentina and one in Chile.
In Bolivia, heavy snowfall blocked the nation’s main motorway and forced the closure of several airports.
In Argentina, several provinces in the Andes have been placed under a storm alert, according to the national weather centre.
h/t to Ron de Haan
One of the most important cold spells to affect Southern Brazil in recent times brought record low temperatures, widespread and severe frost as well as snow to the region. On Thursday (July 12th), the state of Rio Grande do Sul was whitened by frost.
The freezing temperature was associated to the same air mass that prompted the first snowfall to the city of Buenos Aires (Argentina) in 89 years. Temperature in the city of Bage, state of Rio Grande do Sul, fell to minus 3,8 degrees Celsius, the lowest since 1955. Nearby, inside Uruguay, the national low in Mercedes was minus 6,6 degrees. At least three Uruguayans died in consequence of the cold temperatures. On Wednesday (July 11th), Porto Alegre, the state capital of Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, had one of its lowest ever recorded daily highs under clear sky conditions. The high only reached 9 degrees. In the following morning, the city awoke with frost inside the urban heat island, a rare fact not observed since July 14th 2000. The low temperature of 0,3 degree was the lowest since July 14th 2000. In the green areas of southern Porto Alegre, a 1.5 million inhabitants city, frost was intense and even the water has frozen in the ground. At midmorning ice could still be seen over cars parked in the streets.
The high today in Rockford, Illinois is estimated to be 68 F.
Current temp 11:23 AM local time is 65F.
Impossible. Doesn’t that Argentinian snow know that the world has never been hotter than it is now?
More from Treehugger:
“… we can speak about ‘extreme phenomena’ that happen more often. Some examples are the droughts, flooding or the snow at unusual places that accompany the global warming process”.
And we wonder why we can’t have a serious debate with these people…
Snow in Buenos Aires is not in itself significant.
A large area of cold for a long period of time is significant.
The cooling phase of the oceans is coincident with a sun less active than for 100 years.
The air circulation systems are clearly nearer the equator than they were during the recent warming spell.
We can now say that a peak of warming has been passed and we must now wait to see what the Earth has in store for us.
Not a propitious time to engage in climate manipulation.
Ummm…. I recall reading this exact piece of news last year.
Maybe a Deja Vu?
Nope, It did happen two years ago.
http://www.clarin.com/diario/2007/07/09/um/m-01453873.htm
Sorry is in Cervantes’ tonge, but you can see the very same pic you use in this blog entry and the newspaper is dated 07 July 2007
http://www.elpais.com/yoperiodista/articulo/Periodista/Republica_Argentina/nieve_en_buenos_aires_congreso_de_la_nacion_argent/Nieve/Buenos/Aires/elpepuyop/20070709elpyop_7/Tes
Here is another one, also in Spanish, dated 10 July 2007
REPLY: Yes, please see the update. I had this on “schedule” intending to come back later and finish it while I’m waiting for a plane at the airport today. But after going to get a shower this AM discovered I had bungled the “schedule” feature and it was actually live. See the update from Metsul.
– Anthony
Didn’t it snow in Buenos Aires last winter ? I think that they now have had two succesive years of snow.
This is news from 2007…
Maybe the way they put their dates mislead you.
REPLY: Please see the update. I had this on “schedule” intending to come back later and finish it while I’m waiting for a plaine at the airport today. But after going to get a shower this AM discovered I had bungled the “schedule” feature and it was actually live. See the update from Metsul.
– Anthony
This cold spell also effected Brazil.
Anthony, maybe you should add this article to the current posting:
http://www.metsul.com/secoes/visualiza.php?cod_subsecao=32&cod_texto=858
Here is one from the Guardian in English.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/jul/10/argentina.weather
Late April’s fool, Antony?
Please note that this report was from back in July 2007…
REPLY: Yes, please see the update. I had this on “schedule” intending to come back later and finish it while I’m waiting for a plane at the airport today. But after going to get a shower this AM discovered I had bungled the “schedule” feature and it was actually live. See the update from Metsul.
– Anthony
Doesn’t South America have poor temperature sensor coverage?
Then, depending on whether the cold hits key stations that are used to interpolate into the uncovered areas, this cold snap may not get the proper representation. On the other hand, maybe everything is good with the interpolation schemes and we’ll see uncovered SA areas cool off on the world temperature color charts
It seems also to snow here in Europe:
Austria, in some regions roads over mountain passes: compulsory snow chains on cars:
http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20090718_OTS0012
Just for the record, we have seen similar events last year.
Al Gore was right, expect cold in some areas and records to be broken. It’s just 70 here in Ky today and expected to get in the 50’s tonight. Gore was right, the cold is coming to all places of the earth. It’s all caused by CO2 and Global Warming!!!!
Well, this was 2 years ago but next Thursday morning something similar MAY
happen…But if the next snowfall after that occurs in 2099…STILL only weather…
Looks chilly:) Let me just add that to the list of first time in almost 100 year events we have been seeing on the cool side of weather lately.
“BBC: Last Updated: Tuesday, 10 July 2007, 09:27 GMT 10:27 UK ”
REPLY: yes, please see the update, this wasn’t a finished article and accidentally went live before it was finished. It is finished now. – Anthony
Is this a recyled news ? I hear about snow in Buenos Aires just one or two years ago.
Have I stepped back in time?
These articles are from 2007.
REPLY: Please see the update and other explanations in comments further up. I apologize for the confusion. – Anthony
I wish that snow will also fall in Manila and other cities near the equator. Even for just an hour… Then the warmers in our country will have nothing more to say.
I’ve come to the conclusion that our politicians are purposely ignoring the evidence that Anthropogenic Global Warming is a fraud. (Probably apparent to this audience for sometime).
I’ve written my Congressman several times highlighting the lack of correlation between CO2 and Temperature, decreases in hurricane activity despite increases in CO2, Arctic ice and Antarctic ice expansion, global sea ice at record levels, problems with surface station siteing, etc…… in a vain attempt to have him change his vote regarding Cap & Tax each time receiving a form letter thanking me for my “support” and indicating his “concern” for the “health” of the planet and his rationalization for supporting draconian regulation/tax increases to combat this mythological “climate” boogeyman.
In other words, THEY DON’T CARE ABOUT THE FACTS. They are hell bent on legislating control over citizen’s personal lifestyles and the means of production to fit their socialist model employing underhanded political tactics, agenda driven science, payoffs and deception to accomplish it.
This is not “right wing hyperbole” or scare mongering………government wrestling control over industry and our personal lives is happening right now despite the evidence that proves AWG is a sham. No doubt about it.
Strong words I know, but there is no disputing this now. Everyone has had the opportunity to do the research on their own and become informed.
Weather becoming Climate?
Snow in Brasil and Uraguay
5 Sep 2008 … What began in the morning as granular snow and sleet quickly became … that produced the first snow in Buenos Aires since 1918 last year. …
http://www.iceagenow.com/Snow_in_Brazil%20and%20Uraguay.htm – Similar
2007 – Other parts of the world
Historic snow in Buenos Aires – First snowfall since 1918!!!! And record winter in South America. Bariloche breaks cold record with MINUS 22ºC smashing …
http://www.iceagenow.com/2007_Other_Parts_of_the_World.htm – Similar
Record_Lows_2001
In Buenos Aires, snow fell for the first time since 1918. In Peru, 200 people died from the cold and thousands more became infected with respiratory …
http://www.iceagenow.com/Year_of_Global_Cooling.htm – Similar
In 2004 a working paper from the UK Tyndall Centre contained these observations:
“In this paper, we explore under what conditions belief in global warming or climate change, as identified and defined by experience, science and the media, can be maintained in the public’s perception.”
“As the science itself is contested, needless to say, so are the potential policy changes. So how then do people make sense or construct a reality of something that they can never experience in its totality (climate) and a reality that has not yet manifest (i.e. climate change)?”
“To endorse policy change people must ‘believe’ that global warming will become a reality some time in the future.”
“Only the experience of positive temperature anomalies will be registered as indication of change if the issue is framed as global warming.”
“Both positive and negative temperature anomalies will be registered in experience as indication of change if the issue is framed as climate change.”
“We propose that in those countries where climate change has become the predominant popular term for the phenomenon, unseasonably cold temperatures, for example, are also interpreted to reflect climate change/global warming.”
Thus did cold become hot and black become white.
“The Social Simulation of the Public Perception of Weather Events and their Effect upon the Development of Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change”
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp58_summary.shtml
All of a sudden Intellicast is forecasting for Wichita to be a bit cooler than normal for the last half of July, when we see temperatures around 93-94 for the high and the highest they’re forecasting is 91.
And guess the latest revision for their forecast for the high next Tuesday, a whopping 77 degrees, we still have a ways to go before the hot season is usually over though, though it may or may not get hot again.
Weather may be not climate, but apparently there’s reports of abnormal cold this month in both hemispheres, and then there’s El Nino (TAO site again) starting to look like it may end up struggling to stay alive later on or not making it another month and going *poof*
Anthony may have boo-booed slightly, but this has still been a cold winter in s America:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8146995.stm
“Children die in harsh Peru winter”
I think this was covered in WUWT, but I can’t find where.
What it does show is how cold weather kills more than hot weather – but of course, weather is not climate……
DennisA (10:22:04)
That Tyndall document is highly incriminating and deserves wider dissemination.
The link wouldn’t let me save it. Can it be saved and distributed more widely ?
Is it protected in any way and are you in a position to release it ?
In a normal Dutch summer we have 3 days with highs above 30 degrees Centigrade.
In 2006 we were very lucky and had 11 days above 30 degrees.
2007 and 2008 were summers below average: just one day above 30.
In 2009 we are still waiting for the first hot summerday.
“Having listed the variables, it must be restated that our concern is with the process of belief formation, that is, with the dynamic interaction of the above events in the social construction of the reality of global warming or climate change”.
The above is an extract from that Tyndall Centre document referred to by DennisA.
Quite incredible.
A clear confession that the science has been subordinated to political manipulation.
Tyndall would have a fit.
Went to a conference in Geneva Switzerland last week hosted by World Intellectual Property Organization (UN affiliated agency). Topic: “Intellectual Property and Public Policy” and one of the four main policy areas was “Climate Change” where speaker after speaker used that term as a synonym for global warming, took it as gospel, and called for innovative technology to capture carbon and mitigate the impact of rising temperatures and oceans, etc. These people are part of THE global policy elite and for them it’s a done deal.
By the time they wake up and smell the coffee, which they will do only at gunpoint, the policy and legal and financial damage will be far along. Very, very depressing.
Anthony:
You must be on your plane by now, but I think the post is still a bit confusing, even after the update. I may be a little slow, but it took me a few reads and clicking on the Metsul link to figure out that the Metsul link was actually a current event and not just part of the flashback. Just a heads-up for the sake of clarity.
Enjoy reading the site and appreciate all the hard work you and the contributors put in.
Long range forecasts are showing big drops in August.
What with the continued lack of sunspot acitivity (and the kitchen sink which come with the territory), falling temps leapfrog Southern Winter to Northern Winter. Each jump comes with it’s freeze multipliers..
Anybody who can’t figure out what comes next, go sit in the corner with your Pie a-la-Gore.
However…NOAA says the sea in front of Buenos Aires is RED on fire:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomw.7.16.2009.gif
How do you call this?
This is bit off-topic, but I would like to mention that the University of Colorado has just updated their website http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ with about 3-months worth of 2009 sea level data. It is even more clear now that sea level is no longer rising.
A couple of notes: (1) Apparently all the data have been edited, so to work with one of the data sets one needs to download it all, and (2) if cubic polynomials are fitted to the data sets, they all four show local maxima in 2008 or early 2009 (no need to point out to me that this is not very sound analysis–I know that already).
Adam from Kansas (10:25:49) :
“Poof” is what’s left of Wall-E Nina after Eva Nino shot him with her raygun.
and this :
“By quasi-reality we mean a reality that thus far is
defined by expert knowledge and is surrounded by uncertainty.”
The cold spell will last three days more: (acording to http://www.clarin.com )
http://www.clarin.com/diario/2009/07/12/um/m-01957073.htm
As I said: look at the red burning spot noaa shows in front of Buenos Aires…
Snow in Buenos Aires was a rare event, at least during the 20th Century. But during the Little Ice Age the extremley cold climate/weather was the main cause for the extermination of the first settlers in 1516. The extense frosts prevented the small population to raise cattle and have decent crops. They mostly perished of hunger, and the rest was killed by the Indians when they were so few and weak that couldn’t defend thmeselves.
But Buenos Aires is now a huge heat island (about 12 million people) and has a big buffer in the Río de la Plata that keeps the temperature amplitude down. Temps in the city are consistently about 6ºC higher than in the country 60 miles away, where extense “black” frosts have been happening during the last weeks.
One notorius thing is that most cities founded by Spanish Conquistadores were during the winter. Expeditions came always from Santa Cruz, in Bolivia and Asunción, Paraguay, quite in tropical areas. But they had to stop and make camp due to the terrible cold weather/climate they encountered. My city, Córdoba, was founded on July 6th, 1573. We are at 34ºS, 64ºW and our clima is “mediterranean”, with a wide temperature amplitude. An example: in my house, 10 miles west of Córdoba, a ranch in open country, we had -6.20ºC in the morning, but at 4:00 pm we had 20ºC because the sun was shinning nice and there was a warm breeze coming from the northwest.
During the cold winter of 2007 it snowed in the entire central region of Argentina, and even snowed in Tucumán, on the Tropic of Capricorn. In my area there always snow in the mountains 40 miles west of the city (from 1500- to 2200 m altitude) when there is enough humidity for clouds to be formed. This year it also snowed but not as much as in previous years due to the severe drought we have been experiencing.
According to an analysis of records I did in 2004, our area has been cooling noticeably since 1987. The article (in Spanish, though the graphs are universal) can be found in: http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Calen5/CordobaTemp.html
But as temperatures have been going down since 2004, the cooling trend is even greater. I must (and will) update the graphs.
not sure what the point of this is other than to show an old cold weather event. In that case it was cold at various times in the past few years here in Vancouver except when it wasn’t.
I posted a comment yesterday in this blog saying that I was watching Le Tour de France live on TV and while they were climbing a mountain, I can’t remember if it was Platzelwasel or Firstplan, it was snowing.
It wasn’t the Alps, like I said yesterday, but in North-East France, close to the border with Germany. The thing is that these mountains are not as high as the Alps (the road through Platzelwasel is 1200 m over sea level) but it was snowing, nonetheless.
Stephen Wilde (10:48:02) :
DennisA (10:22:04)
That Tyndall document is highly incriminating and deserves wider dissemination.
The link wouldn’t let me save it. Can it be saved and distributed more widely ?
Is it protected in any way and are you in a position to release it ?
I’ve saved it. Just open the .pdf and then click the floppy disc icon in the Adobe screen toolbar, select the destination, cick and it’s done.
Simple.
rbateman: Can you show us the long range forecasts that show these big drops for next month, I would like to see them and whether they have been proven when it comes to accuracy, will you please provide the links 🙂
Yesterday, I heard an AGWist talking about the current meteorological phenomena. He said (in Spanish): “The climate is changing and it is happening due to the global warming caused by the carbon dioxide emitted by the human beings.”
He said it on a top-audience hour through a high-rating radio-station. He’s a radical environmentalist, not a scientist or an engineer, who makes his life from environmentalist activities. Unfortunately, the anchor was absolutely on this irrational posture and didn’t question a single word but, to the contrary, agreed with the posture.
Regarding the assertion of the environmentalist, I would take the first phrase, “The climate is changing” and would add “Because the climate has been always changing”. On the last two phrases I would say, “It is impossible that global warming produces global cooling”, and “the carbon dioxide, whether emitted by humans beings or not, is heated up by the energy transferred from the surface, but does not heat up anything”. It is similar to a water bucket placed on a stove burner. The heat emitted by the burner heats up the water, water would not heat up suddenly if there is not a primary energy source at a higher temperature than water’s own temperature. Similarly, the hot water would not warm up to the stove burner until you reach the temperature at which the stove burner was when it was on fire, but until you reach a temperature of equilibrium.
If they had requested me for evidence from nature, I would have given them data obtained from the daily observations that I made during twilight -nighttime- sunrise from spring to autumn. I started measuring the radiation emitted by the surface during twilight per each hour using a radiometer. The first hour the temperature of the soil was 26.3 °C. The next hour the temperature had dropped down to 25.4 °C, and so it went dropping down until midnight when the temperature of the soil was 24.3 °C. The radiation emitted during sunrise caused a soil’s temperature of 19.2 °C.
On the other hand, sometimes the temperature of the atmosphere was 1 °C to 0.4 °C higher than the temperature of the soil and other times it was lower than the temperature of the soil. The equilibrium temperature happened between 20:00 and 23:00 hours; however, the soil was not heated up by the atmosphere because the equilibrium temperature was given by decreases of the temperature of the air, not by increases of the temperature of the soil. The latter phenomenon is evidenced by the higher temperature of the soil after the crossed points occurred. The explanation for this increase of the temperature of the soil resides on the transfer of energy from the subsurface materials of the ground, which exhibited a larger energy load than the upper surface of the ground.
Sometimes the air was at a lower temperature than the soil; however, the relative humidity was higher than during the hours previous to decreases of the temperature of the air. In none of the latter cases the temperature of the soil increased by the effect of radiation emitted from the atmosphere. The evidence from this data is that the relative humidity is inversely proportional to the temperature of the surface and the air.
You can get your own conclusions.
Stephen Brown (12:03:49)
Thanks, it worked this time.
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp58.pdf
I think it crosses certain moral and ethical boundaries.
Those people are paid by the taxpayer to tell the truth as best they can.
If the truth is in doubt then they should not hide that.
In this case they go further. They admit that the truth is in doubt but for public consumption there is a consensus and the science is settled.
That may be a criminal deception.
In a democracy it is for the people to make decisions through the voting system. To make decisions they need the truth.
Denial of the truth by a taxpayer funded body is a criminal misuse of taxpayer resources.
Manipulation of perception is a negation of democracy because decisions made without full knowledge are decisions denied.
That paper is the sort of thing that would have been common and unexceptional in pre 1989 Russia.
OT: Sealevel updated from Colerado university, here downloaded data in graphic:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/sealevelmar2009.gif
Adam from Kansas (12:12:10) :
http://theweatherwiz.com/forcast-usa.php
You have to go at least 11 days into the future, otherwise it links you to standard forecasts.
Pick the city of your choice, and jot down the results.
Have some fun.
And – and – The ‘heat wave’ in North Central Texas came to an end with an unseasonable cold front (and rain!) from the north … we saw temps this morning in the low 70F range whereas we usually see morning low temps in the low to mid 80F range …
.
.
.
Frank Lansner (13:44:20) :
OT: Sealevel updated from Colerado university, here downloaded data in graphic:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/sealevelmar2009.gif
It’s on topic, indeed. We’re leaving the icehouse period characterized by a regression phase which in turn will evolve towards a warmhouse characterized by a transgression phase which a highstand similar to the Pleistocene highstand phase. Nothing new under the Sun.
The problem is that some people attributes this kind of natural phenomena to human activities, which is utterly pseudoscience as the idea gives no chance to realistic natural explanations. Have you noticed that the detractors of the natural explanation never use experimentation for support their arguments? They say, for example, Svensmark’s theory is erroneous and purely non sense; but they never say on what real events they are basing their heckler rhetoric.
They could say something like “in 2000 models made by such and that scientists demonstrated the unfeasibility of Svensmark’s theory”, but they cannot say something like “the reproduction of Svensmark’s experiments by such and that scientists gave opposed results”. Got it?
Stephen Wilde (10:48:02) : Re: the Tyndall document
The title of this is: The Social Simulation of the Public Perception of Weather Events and their Effect upon the Development of Belief in
Anthropogenic Climate Change
and this seems to be a “research” report rather than a statement of policy. For example, from page 11:
“Based on our assumption that the framing of the issue has a significant impact for the public’s social construction of the issue we begin with two preliminary propositions:
Proposition 1. a. Only the experience of positive temperature anomalies will be registered as indication of change if the issue is framed as global warming.
Proposition 1. a. Both positive and negative temperature anomalies will be registered in experience as indication of change if the issue is framed as climate change.
Figure 4 displays the process by which the data from the natural sciences is entered into the model and subsequently …”
There are two 1.a. terms in the original; may be a typo
However, as to saving the thing, I went to the link above and then right clicked on the Full document link there and saved the full 41 page PDF. But I haven’t read all 41 pages.
Nogw (11:05:33) : “However…NOAA says the sea in front of Buenos Aires is RED on fire:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomw.7.16.2009.gif”
NOAA also had “light snow” in Key West FL last week.
Europe has also been hit each winter with record freezing temeperatures. In the summer they get record heat waves. Yes, there is climate change and all is not good with change. Take Obama – NO GOOD CHANGE.
http://newsbird.wordpress.com/
Poor Argentinian People!
Argentina has faced a series of disasters in last year:
1) March 2008: a massive peasant strike and uprising against the 50-60% taxes over agro-exportations
2) October 2008- until now: the country is badly hit by the global recession and financial crisis
3) January-March 2009: the worst drought in recent aregentinian history, nearly a million catlle died of stavation. Argentina may need for first time in history meat imports
4) May 2009 until now: Argentina is the worst hit country in the world by the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic, whith a mortality rate over 5% the highest in the world, if this trend persists, millions of argentinians will die of viral influenza pneumonia.
5) July 2009: The present cold wave, that will surely made the pandemic situation worse, because the infection and death rates will increase because of the cold weather.
My solidarity with the Argentinian People, and shame on the current incompetent administration!
Rick (11:31:41) :
“not sure what the point of this is other than to show an old cold weather event. In that case it was cold at various times in the past few years here in Vancouver except when it wasn’t.”
Fascinating. I’m sure if you Team up with Dr Mann, the two of you can invent some new statistical method, and by smearing some temperature anomalies from nearby measurement sites in Maui and Oahu, you would be able to show consistent unprecedented warming in Vancouver even when it wasn’t.
My view is that the Metsul story should have been posted on top, cause’ the warmistas will use it against (us) just a personal view .. the global climate wars LOL…
@urederra
It was between Vittel and Colmar in Vosges mountains (NE of France) and it was only rain.
http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/LIVE/us/1300/videos.html
Looks like record cold in North Alabama tonight.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=35976
We call this the Christy/Spencer effect.
🙂
Frank Lansner (13:44:20) :
OT: Sealevel updated from Colerado university, here downloaded data in graphic:
Frank: Looking at your plot, I get the impression that you copied the new 2009 data and appended it to data for earlier years that you copied some time in the past. If so, you may wish to recopy the entire data set, going back to 1993, because Colorado has changed the prior numbers a bit as well as putting out the 2009 data. The revised graph, and polynomial, will be slightly different.
Commonsense, I agree with most of what you said about Argentina misfortune in the last 7 years of the present Kirchner family kingdom. But I beg to disagree about the “swine flu” pandemic. Figures given by our officials are made up (they make up the inflation index showing an inflation 20-30% of the real one).
Actually, the “pig flu” as we know it, has about 0,4% mortality, compared with 2-5% of the common flu we have every year. They count as people with the A1 flu (the pig one) all people who have some lines of fever and group them under the “pandemic” A1 flu label. We have in my city (1,3 million) only 9 deaths out of 3000 suspicious cases, and all of them were people with previous critical lung condition that would have died anyway even with a common cold.
Our previous national health minister (a lady with a degree in accounting!) resigned and the new minister is a corrupt one that two years ago was caught making up statistics on child mortality in his province (Tucumán) to prove his governor’s and party’s health policies were fine.
In Argentina nobody can trust any figure, number, statistic or claim made by any person in the government. We know that and laugh at politicians but—what else can we do? There is no way we can get rid of politicos by voting differently. It only aggravates the problem, as what they call here “democracy” is just the shortest path to “demagoguery” and the institution of a “tyranny of the majority” that always oppresses the minorities –that is, common people who work hard and only hopes a real terrible disease will kill all politicos in the country.
If I am allowed to say, Argentina (my country) is the best example of the ruling of Murphy’s Law: “If something can go wrong, IT WILL –but in the worst possible sequence of events.”
Nasif Nahle (12:28:37) :
”… and “the carbon dioxide, whether emitted by humans beings or not, is heated up by the energy transferred from the surface, but does not heat up anything…”.
The Warmist view is the sun (neglecting the infrared spectrum) radiates energy down through a transparent atmosphere with no transfer of energy to the greenhouse gases When the energy hits the earth, high level radiation in the UV and visible range is transformed into heat or infrared energy. The infrared energy is radiated up and on the way from the earth to outer-space the greenhouse gases absorb the infared energy and keep it from reaching outer-space. Then the COOLER atmosphere transfers this earth derived heat energy back to the WARMER earth raising the earth’s net temperature. Since the Second Law does not allow this with out work (a la heat pump) Rabett says the SUN is the driver (heat pump) so the second law is not violated.
This Warmist view neglects the excitation of CO2 electrons by direct sunlight. Some of the excitation energy must be from the sun. If we keep to the time sequence, during the day, the sun’s energy would have first priority since the energy goes sun-air-earth and then back to air. Only CO2 molecules not at a high energy state already would be available to be excited by energy radiated back from the earth. Second the amount of infrared energy from the sun is much greater than that from the earth. (the graphs shown by the Warmists change the scale on the earth radiated infrared energy so it looks the same as the sun’s instead of much less)
Let us look at nature:
At the same latitude the climate with a high humidity will be moderated compared to a desert. Very high day time temperatures followed by low night time temperatures are the norm in low humidity. This means that the action of the greenhouse gases is to SLOW the energy transfer from the sun. Moisture captures some of the incoming energy from the sun during the day thereby lowering the day time temperatures. “….Water vapor absorbs heat and releases it slowly….At night, when the humidity is high, the atmosphere retains more heat, and nighttime temperatures stay somewhat high. On dry nights, however…., the atmosphere cools off rapidly.,,,” Straight from a Warmist paper the full quote is below.
“…Water vapor is the main reason for the greenhouse effect, in which certain gases in the atmosphere allow sunlight to pass through, but absorb heat released from the Earth (when sunlight strikes the Earth it changes from visible light to infrared radiation, or heat). Without this effect the Earth would be about 33°C cooler than it is at present (that is, 60°F cooler). Human-caused emissions, leading to increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases in the atmosphere may accelerate the greenhouse effect. Water vapor absorbs heat and releases it slowly. At night, when the humidity is high, the atmosphere retains more heat, and nighttime temperatures stay somewhat high. On dry nights, however, with little water vapor to absorb heat, the atmosphere cools off rapidly….” http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Ce-Cr/Climate-Moderator-Water-as-a.html
The fallacy is neglecting the role of sunlight in warming up greenhouse gases during the day and attributing the warming to black body radiation from the earth ONLY. In other words “greenhouse gas” interrupts the journey of some of the infrared energy from the sun to the earth during the day and then releases the energy at night. This model is consistent with the temperature moderation seen when the humidity is high. (College thesis anyone?)
Geez….! Snow every 89 years…. That’s as about as infrequent as Halley’s Comet!
The price of food is going to go through the roof.
Buy grain and make money.
I have noticed that daytime temperatures have not been reaching forecast highs. Usually during summer months the high is higher than forcasted.
(Denver Colorado)
Forecast models are indicating a huge polar air incursion in South America in the next few days. If the models prove to be correct, it will be one of the coldest events – not the coldest – in the region in recent memory, maybe decades. Here is the latest ECMWF model run to next Thursday.
http://www.metsul.com/__editor/filemanager/files/2008/europeu1707a.JPG
Temperature ranging from -8 to -10C in 850 hPa are quite rare to see in the Buenos Aires region.
Gail Combs (18:50:25) :
The Warmist view is the sun (neglecting the infrared spectrum) radiates energy down through a transparent atmosphere with no transfer of energy to the greenhouse gases When the energy hits the earth, high level radiation in the UV and visible range is transformed into heat or infrared energy. The infrared energy is radiated up and on the way from the earth to outer-space the greenhouse gases absorb the infared energy and keep it from reaching outer-space. Then the COOLER atmosphere transfers this earth derived heat energy back to the WARMER earth raising the earth’s net temperature. Since the Second Law does not allow this with out work (a la heat pump) Rabett says the SUN is the driver (heat pump) so the second law is not violated.
The second law is not violated for the system Sun-Earth. Nonetheless, as it is formulated by AGWists, it is violated for the system atmosphere-Surface.
This Warmist view neglects the excitation of CO2 electrons by direct sunlight. Some of the excitation energy must be from the sun. If we keep to the time sequence, during the day, the sun’s energy would have first priority since the energy goes sun-air-earth and then back to air. Only CO2 molecules not at a high energy state already would be available to be excited by energy radiated back from the earth. Second the amount of infrared energy from the sun is much greater than that from the earth. (the graphs shown by the Warmists change the scale on the earth radiated infrared energy so it looks the same as the sun’s instead of much less)
This is the best part of your explanation because it implies induced negative absorption given that photons at a given frequency interact with matter particles. During daytime, the solar photon stream is stronger than the surface photon stream, so the photons emitted due to negative absorption by the interaction between solar photons and matter particles follows the trajectory of the stronger stream, the solar photon stream in this case, and thus the energy is absorbed by the surface. The amplitude, wavelenght and frequency of the photons emitted back by the surface allow another photon stream weaker than the solar photon stream, i.e. the surface photon stream. Given that this photons interact with the air molecules whether they are or not excited, but instead they vibrate at the same frequency of the photons of the surface photon stream, the trajectory of the induced negative absorption of the air molecules is the same than the trajectory of the surface photon stream. This way, the Sun does not act as a “heat pump” during the energy transfer from the surface to the atmosphere and there is no violation of the second law of thermodynamics. That’s what nature exhibits and there is no need of implausible invented mechanisms like “climate loops” and Rabett’s “solar heat pumps”.
Gail Combs (18:50:25):
The fallacy is neglecting the role of sunlight in warming up greenhouse gases during the day and attributing the warming to black body radiation from the earth ONLY. In other words “greenhouse gas” interrupts the journey of some of the infrared energy from the sun to the earth during the day and then releases the energy at night. This model is consistent with the temperature moderation seen when the humidity is high. (College thesis anyone?)
Indeed. AGWists are compelled to neglect the role of the Sun on Earth’s climate because they are urged to validate their fallacies. The first obstacle to their idea is the Medieval Warming Period, so they have tried to erase that period.
Second, the main source of energy for the climate, the Sun, is hindrance to their ideas, so they are trying to unlink the Sun from our planet. They say that the carbon dioxide heats up the Earth when the carbon dioxide is not a primary source of energy. As you have said, the Sun heats up the surface and the surface heats up the atmosphere.
Third, those enormous concentrations of carbon dioxide present during geological eras when the Earth was undergoing frosty temperatures, and vice versa, constitute a foremost stagger for them, so they are picking up small periods from the geological timescale for attempting to mislead the public through masking their ideas with real observations.
Finally, the most efficient “greenhouse” gas is, undeniably, water vapor; however, AGWists turn a blind eye for not including strongly the water vapor in their models adducing that its concentration is highly variable. That’s an evasive argument, of course.
It seems AGW proponents are trying to rewrite science, or to construct a new pseudoscience, with solipsist deconstructive arguments.
Stephen Wilde: At last someone else agrees with me about the insidious nature of the government funded propaganda campaign. Whilst indeed it was a working document, it shows quite plainly the thinking that has driven the Tyndall Centre since its inception. In November 2007, I had a paper published in Energy and Environment based on the document. Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Number 6, pp. 805-813, November 2007. Abstract here: http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=19047320
An earlier parent document with some of the content can be found here: http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/Spinning%20temperature%20out%20of%20control.pdf
The campaign about aviation emissions started with them and they are widely quoted by the aptly named Plain Stupid activist group. The idea of individual carbon credits with your own swipe card started life with them. They have been working closely with NGO’s since their inception, especially Greenpeace and FoE.
Try this one as well:
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 72: Does tomorrow ever come? Disaster narrative and public perceptions of climate change
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp72_summary.shtml
· The general public garners most of its knowledge about science from the mass media (Nelkin, 1987; Wilson, 1995). Therefore the role of the media is significant in the public’s cognition and perception of climate change issues.
· The ways in which television, radio and newspapers communicate complicated issues of science, technology and politics to the public has reached a critical point in post-industrial society as the media has become highly influential and immensely powerful (Wahlberg, 2000, Weingart, 2003). Its sway over the public psyche is evident in all sectors with public understanding of science in particular being communicated by media eager for topical news.
· The media play an important role in reporting often the most shocking and attention grabbing climate change headlines to lay audiences.
· Science and the media tend to inhabit a grey or undefined region within the socio-political psyche, a void in which the metrics of scientific process are often lost in translation from academic findings to news headline.
· Moser and Dilling (2004: p.41) advocate the use of more relevant or ‘trusted messengers’ in order to improve credibility and legitimacy in the communication of climate change to lay audiences. They suggest that pioneering industry leaders will appear more legitimate or relevant to industry audiences, religious leaders more legitimate in providing the moral argument and (in the case of climate change) even using the skills of artists, story-tellers and musicians to popularise what is seen by many as a ‘dry’ scientific matter, as a “deeply human affair”.
All sound familiar?
The Institute for Public Policy Research, one of the UK government’s favourite think tanks, had this advice for public agencies interfacing with the public in August 2006:
“Treating climate change as beyond argument
..it is our recommendation that, at least for popular communications, interested agencies now need to treat the argument as having been won.
This means simply behaving as if climate change exists and is real, and that individual actions are effective.
The ‘facts’ need to be treated as being so taken-for-granted that they need not be spoken.
The certainty of the Government’s new climate-change slogan – ‘Together this generation will tackle climate change’ (Defra 2006) – gives an example of this approach. It constructs, rather than claims, its own factuality.”
And it’s all about “The Science” isn’t it?
I would never think it snows there. It always seems warm. Snow is a mess to drive in. I rather have warm weather all year long.
If one were to post “Golden Coldies,” we could post Feb. 1934 in NYC when it got to -15 Fahrenheit.
More to the point for Buenos Aires, check out how cold it’s supposed to get there this week. The Weather Underground is predicting SNOW throughout much of the pampas, along with very heavy drought-busting rain (and unusual cold) in the Federal District. Could history repeat itself?
It’s official, the temperature in my area of Alabama set a record low last night, one that is 7 degrees below the average and one degree below the previous record.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/K8A0/2009/7/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Hmmm….. Didn’t hear about this anywhere!
Stephen Wilde (10:55:25) :
Tyndall would have a fit.
I notice a lot of the founder members of the organisation are from the University of East Anglia.
Now who do we know from there who is behind HADcru?
Three nights of record low temperatures at the KCI airport, supposedly an official temperature site, although it doesn’t show up in any of the climate network websites. Can anybody tie all of these monitoring stations/official temperature sites/ etc., together?
tallbloke (13:33:59)
I notice a lot of the founder members of the organisation are from the University of East Anglia.
Now who do we know from there who is behind HADcru?
Absolutely right. University of East Anglia is a network centre for several climate institutes, including Tyndall and the Climate Reseach Unit: http://www.uea.ac.uk/zicer/. This is how consensus works, you set up a new institute every few months, using mostly the same staff, the same data and the same agenda and you have yet another scientific body adding their weight to the consensus.
The current Tyndall Director of Strategy and chief scientific advisor to DEFRA is Bob Watson, ex IPCC chairman before Pachauri, former Chief Scientist and Director for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development (ESSD) at the World Bank. Before the World Bank, he was Associate Director for Environment in the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Executive Office of the President in the Clinton/Gore White House. Prior to that he was Director of the Science Division and Chief Scientist for the Office of Mission to Planet Earth at NASA.
Hadley itself is part of the Met office and under the control of the MoD.
This is how certain Hadley were about global warming in 2005, just before the Exeter Conference on Dangerous Climate Change:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/index.html (I can no longer find this on the Hadley site but I do have the pdf)
Stabilising climate to avoid dangerous climate change — a summary of relevant research at the Hadley Centre, January 2005
What constitutes ‘dangerous’ climate change, in the context of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, remains open to debate
Once we decide what degree of (for example) temperature rise the world can tolerate, we then have to estimate what greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere should be limited to, and how quickly they should be allowed to change. These are very uncertain because we do not know exactly how the climate system responds to greenhouse gases
The next stage is to calculate what emissions of greenhouse gases would be allowable, in order to keep below the limit of greenhouse gas concentrations. This is even more uncertain, thanks to our imperfect understanding of the carbon cycle (and chemical cycles) and how this feeds back into the climate system
The science is settled…..
We will be selling fur coats at mardi Gras and Carnival.
@Anthony
There seems to be a bit of confusion here (see e.g. Billy Bob above). Both articles are from 2007. The Metsul article is marked as “Alexandre Amaral de Aguiar – 15/07/2007 19:04:21″ at the bottom of the page, the date in the top right corner is the current date – yes, it’s confusing. Also note
Whatever may be brewing in Argentina/Brazil (see Eugenio Hackbart – Brazil (20:49:56)) right now, it is covered in none of your featured articles.
A current 36-hour forecast says today 63°F high, tonight 48°F low, tomorrow 58°F high.
REPLY: Yes this was something that caught my eye that was published along with three other scheduled articles before I left on a cross country flight Saturday. Being with the same July timeframe, it seemed like a good recap. I regret that a combination of lack of time and a mistake in setting up the publishing time put this online before I had a chance to get back to finishing it.
I’ve made a change right above the first photo to make it clearer that these are both from 2007. If somebody still gets confused, not much I can do to help them. – A
Ex head of Tyndall Centre speaks out:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/06/founding-director-of-the-tyndall-centre-for-climate-change-time-to-ditch-consensus/
John Tyndall himself said this in his preface to his book on acoustics:
“The subject is treated experimentally throughout, and I have endeavoured so to place each experiment before the reader that he should realise it as an actual operation.”
And this about the seperation of science and religion:
“religious sentiment should not be permitted to intrude on the region of knowledge, over which it holds no command”
1912, 1917, and now 2009 have seen unusual cold events during periods of unusually low solar activity.
Just a coincidence? I dunno.
It must be the Watts effect again or has Al Gore plans for a visit?
This is no flashback but a real time event building up now.
COLD AND SNOW IN SOUTH AMERICA
By Eugenio Hackbart, METSUL
One of the coldest air eruptions this decade is expected in the next few days in Argentina, Uruguay and part of Southern Brazil. First, a major extra tropical cyclone will develop near Rio de la Plata region this Tuesday and early Wednesday. Forecast models suggest an explosive cyclogenesis and the risk of torrential rain and damaging winds in the Buenos Aires province and Uruguay. Coastal areas could face hurricane force wind gusts. The 985 hPa cyclone will quickly eject to lower latitudes in the South Atlantic, deepening even more to a 960 hPa low, favoring a very cold air incursion in the continent.
The associated front will race trough Uruguay, Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil with possible severe weather (high winds, hails and even isolated tornadoes). A pre- frontal low level jet will transport warm air ahead of the front and could bring gusts of warm and dry wind from the North that could exceed 100 km/h in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, this Tuesday and early Wednesday. The polar air will cover much of Argentina, Uruguay and Southern Brazil on the second half of the week with freezing temperature, frost and even snow.
Snow could fall and even accumulate in parts of the province of Buenos Aires where
snow is not so common. Snow in the city of Buenos Aires could not be ruled but, but an event like July 9th 2007 is unlikely. Snow is more likely in the regions of Tandil, Mar del Plata and Bahia Blanca and could accumulate as not seen for a long time in the higher elevations of the Sierra de la Ventana. Snow is not off the cards also in Uruguay, according to some forecast models. The last time it snowed with accumulation in Uruguay was on August 1st 1991. In the capital Montevideo, the last snow event happened on June 1980. Nights will be extremely cold to the region’s patterns from Thursday to Sunday. In Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil, this winter is the coldest so far since 1996.
From http://www.icecap.us, ICECAP IN THE NEWS, download the PDF about this event.
Joe romm is very distrurbed over this. It can’t validate Soros.
I thought 2007 was hot. Beyond imagination? Surely Algore also is aggitated. His home stat is coolest evah last month and we know his carbon footprint is massive.
Who claims their
“models” predicted the snow and cold?
Second night of record low temperatures in north east Alabama
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/K8A0/2009/7/20/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Last night it was a full four degrees below the record.
Accu Weather published the following article on the recent storm and the following cold wave:
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=rss&article=8
Have a look at the Chaitén Webcam.
There is snow on the hills:
http://www.aipchile.cl/camara/detail.php?cameraID=116
Congratulations, you had me fooled for a couple of days. Just couldn’t take it down after you found out it was from 2 years ago, could you? How I’d love to take a poll of all the people who visit this site and ask if they could remember if this article was for 2007 or for 2009.
You run the best Science Blog for 2008, Anthony. You cannot do this and then not remove it. You really can’t. It’s not proper, it’s not ethical, it’s going too far and I don’t care what the AGW propaganda machine does.
REPLY: I knew while I was writing it that is was from 2007, but it initially got posted before I finished it because I was setting up several blog posts for scheduled release while I was traveling. This was the last one, and I botched the setup for scheduling, but planned to finish it while waiting in the airport which has free wifi. While I was showering and packing I discovered that instead of being scheduled it was live, and I had limited time to work on it then. Sure I could have taken it down, but people had already commented on it. At that point whether I removed it or left it up I’d be damned if I did, damned if I didn’t. For those that can’t seem to read the NOTE at the top, there’s nothing I can do to help you. Besides there’s nothing wrong with reviewing something interesting from a couple of years ago. I covered it then too. Since there’s always some people complaining about virtually every post I make here, this one is no different. I just did a flashback to the moon landings in 1969, which also occurred this month, but 40 years ago, should I remove that too lest some fool that wasn’t alive then think it is from this year?
People that make expectations of me should walk a mile in my shoes and read some of the abuse I get just for putting up regular stories. As for your complaint, I really can’t help you. Its up and it will stay up. – Anthony
Over at Icecap they have a posting on a major winter storm which hit Buenos Aires Wedensday morning, July 22, 2009. There is snow just to the south of the city. If the snow moves a bit north, Buenos Aires will have its second snow in 91 years.
A new “Watts Up Effect?”
Yep, here it is: http://www.perfil.com/contenidos/2009/07/22/noticia_0033.html
My apologies, Anthony, you don’t have to take down the blog post. Or you can save this one for 2011. 😉
So, snowing in Buenos Aires for the second time in 91 years. That cancels out those two recent 14+ day heat waves in Melbourne (which is supposed to happen to happen about once every 1,200,000 years). It’s good to know everything is normal.
Yes, the flashback has become reality within days after publishing.
What are the odds of that happening?
This just in from NWS via wunderground.com:
Statement as of 6:25 am EDT on July 23, 2009
… Unusually cool July for Central Park…
For some perspective… here are the top ten coolest julys on record
since 1869 for Central Park in New York city:
coolest
avg. Temp. Year
70.7 1888
71.9 1884
72.1 1914
72.3 2000/1871
72.4 1891
72.6 1895
72.8 1902/1869
72.9 1956
73.1 1890
73.2 2001
Due to the unusually cool conditions thus far in July… here are
some interesting facts to note…
With an average daily temperature of 71.7… currently running 4.6
degrees below normal… this July is on track for the 2nd coolest
on record. Below average temperatures have occurred on 20 out of
22 days… with the other two days being normal. There have been
zero above normal days.
Central Park has only reached 85 degrees once this month… on the
17th… and has not yet reached 90 degrees this Summer. If this
continues through the end of the month… it will only be the
second time since 1869 that 90 degrees was not reached in June or
July. The only other time this occurred was 1996.
There is a new pdf about the snow storm with weather maps available at Climate Depot: ‘Worst snow event in 50 years’ hits South America
Eduardo Ferreyra : I am happy you appreciate my solidarity with your people.
But my numbers on the flu pandemic were the ones of World Health Organization and also the ECDC ones .Those are updated every day, and wikipedia did updates every day with WHO and ECDC data (now that WHO has stopped the count, wikipedia only put the ECDC data ).
The NUMBERS say that WORLDWIDE the mortality is near 0,5% ( five times the mortality of common influenza) but in Argentina is over 5% ( ten times the wordwide mortality and five times the Mexico one). Remeber that the 1918-1919 pandemic killed between 50 and 100 MILLION worldwide with a mortality smaller than the current Argentinian one.
THIS IS NOT COMMON FLU. The critical data are:
Genetic makeup: mixture of swine , human and avian influenza viruses(“triple reassortant”)
Age groups more hit: ADOLESCENTS AND YOUNG ADULTS (more than 60% of the cases).
Killer mechanism: the virus itself doesn`t kill. What kill you is an overreaction of the immune system, called a cytokine storm. Your immmune system sends million of white cells to the infected lungs, but instead of destroying the virus, this trigger and inflammatory response that destroy the lung tissue, and your lungs get filled with fluids plenty of dead cells ( here in Peru, we call it “pus”). The nightmare reality is that THE STRONGER THE IMMUNE SYSTEM IS, THE WORSE THE LUNG INFLAMMATION. This explain why most victims are YOUNG adults, not weaken old aged or infants .
If you don`t want that your own defenses kill you in an auto-immunitary attack, YOU MUST TAKE THE ANTIVIRAL DRUGS AT THE FIRST SYMPTOMS. Most of the young healthy adult victims died because they don`t take the drugs at time, the virus multiplicated in the lungs and so their immune system got crazy.
The authorities that say that the victims were all already weakened people are not telling you the truth. This is only 30% of the cases.
I read about this killer mechanism in an article about the outbreaks in Mexico. The early may WHO reports( WHO do not did a statistical analysis of the June cases and in July stopped counting) also showed the odd age distribution off illness and mortality.
Remember: BEWARE A/H1N1 2009 swine influenza and save your life!
Commonsense, I have no doubts about the cytokine reaction. But have come to accept Mark Twain’s Golden Rule of Scepticism: “There are lies, damned lies, and Statistics.”
In my province common flue (or “gripe”) has a mortality rate ranging from 2 to 5% according to the years, about the same as the national average. In our 19th week of the year there were already about 300,000 flu cases in Argentina, the vast majority corresponding to common flue, and an “estimated” 100,000 cases of A1H1N1 or “porcine” influenza. Estimates are just that: a guess, and not even an educated or informed guess.
The A1 flu (after a detailed lab analysis) accounts in my province for about 3000 cases in a population of 2.4 million, and only 6 deaths, but on people already having lung problems and inmune system depression (a seven month premature baby, a transplanted patient, etc).
However, our national health officials are lumping together all deaths either from A/H1N1 flu or from common flu as being caused by the A/H1N1 flu. Those flawed statistics are sent to the WHO who has no way of knowing if they are good or not and contribute to the general misinformation that comes from all over the world.
And Tamiflu, the drug designed to cure the “avian” flu (the one that killed less than 60 people in the world in 8 years!) didn’t work with the flu, as it does not work with the porcine flu. What must be investigated is if the vaccine has not killed more patients than it supposedly saved, as it happened with the avian flu.
[snip]
[No religious pronouncements, please. ~ Evan]
Eduardo Ferreyra :
The WHO and ECDC data only count LABORATORY CONFIRMED A/H1N1 ( it is not just A1, it`s H1N1( type 1 Hemaglutinin + type 1 Neuranimidase). These are the only believable data. What is just a statistical guess is that there are more than 100 000 cases in Argentina. The WHO/ECDC data show 197 deaths out of 3056 cases, or a jaw-dropping mortality of 6,4%.
6,4% mortality (1 death every 16 cases) is , if the data are representative, an enormous rate.
Common flu has a mortality of just 0,01% (or 1 out of 2000), mainly among infants or old aged people.
As I said before, the more endangered people by swine influenza are instead YOUNG ADULTS, because they have strong immune systems that can then trigger the suicidal cytokine reaction.
What might happen in your city ( please tell me the name of the city) is probably the same that is happening where I live, Lima ,the peruvian capital: the people that got sick receive at right time the tamiflu drug, and that prevent the cytokine reaction but cannot save the already-ill people from the more common complication of all influenzas: secondary bacterial pneumonia, that must be instead treated with antibiotics.
Oseltamivir (tamiflu) block the neuranimidase protein if the virus, stopping its spread from one cell to the other. The common HUMAN (not swine) A/H1N1 and the avian A/H5N1 are resistant to this drug, but thank God that the SWINE A/H1N1 is still sensible to the drug ( it might become resistant as it evolves or reassort with human seasonal A/H1N1 influenza).
When that resistance will appear, you must get another neuranimidase inibitor called Zanamivir (Relenza), that don`t come in tablets but instead come as an aerosol that you must breath (like the drugs for asthma).