WUWT readers may recall seeing this article last week:
Arctic temperature is still not above 0°C – the latest date in fifty years of record keeping
In that article, Joe D’Aleo presented a graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that showed that the area above 80 degrees north had still not climbed above freezing point of fresh water. Granted sea water doesn’t freeze until around -4°C, but that not is what was most interesting. It was the flat-top appearance of the graph which when you go back though the years provided on the DMI web page, doesn’t seem to have appeared before.
This is the the DMI graph (annotated by WUWT) from yesterday’s data, July 1st, which appeared today. There is a one day update lag. The original graph is available here at DMI.
I also provided a 2x magnified inset of the current period of interest.
The current temperature derivation (T799) is in red, while the 1958-2002 mean from their data is in green. I had expected by now that the “flat-top” would be growing into a rise similar to the top of the mean curve, but it has remained flat.
Again, this flat-top doesn’t seem to be found in any of the older data. If I were of a Mannian mood, I might be tempted to label this as “unprecedented” since record keeping began.
But there may be some other explanations. As we’ve seen with NSIDC, they’ve had some sensor problems, while that is unconnected here, the possibility of such things exists not only in the input data, but also in the processing of the data. There may be a software change or some other contributing factor.
The floating ice buoy I referenced in my last post, the “North Pole Cam” operated by NOAA (Link is here: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html )still has air temperatures from its two probes below the freezing mark, ~ minus 2°C which you can see here:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/weather_data/2009/07100_hdr.wx
So the data may very well be real. Notice also that the trend in DMI plots for the last few years since 2000 has been ever so slightly below the mean. Since the sea ice melt may be driven more by wind and currents, what effect it may have on the 2009 sea ice melt season remains to be seen. I think it would be safe to say though, that NSIDC’s director, Mark Serreze won’t be issuing an “ice free north pole” soundbite this year.
I’m putting the DMI temperature plot into the “widgets” section of the WUWT sidebar, as I expect there will be continuing interest.
I will be very surprised if that turns out not to be a measurement or processing problem.
Are you sure the sensor is not snow/ice covered!
If you do a Mannian preferred component analysis to remove data values you did not expect, isn’t there unprecedented warming underway up there?
Presenting actual data that has not been properly filtered can only mislead readers, don’t you think?
The link on the – appreciated – widget is not functioning (yet?)
Regards
Theo Richel
REPLY: Live editing, try now – A
Go, Baby Ice, Go
==========
How do you test data collection? There could have been a few sensors that recieved warmer water at the time the graph reached zero that brought the average upward early.
Is there a surface temperature station in the vicinity that can confirm this lack of temperatures above freezing?
I did a little check at noaa – FWIW http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/global_temp_accum.shtml
Northern Canada appears above average
Northern Alaska appears below average
Spitsbergen appears above average
“North pole” data, still below zero though … as it should, see the other years …
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np_weatherdata.html
JUNE (month end averages) NSIDC
1980 Southern Hemisphere = 13.2 million sq km
1980 Northern Hemisphere = 12.3 million sq km
Total = 25.5 million sq km
2008 Southern Hemisphere = 14.5 million sq km
2008 Northern Hemisphere = 11.4 million sq km
Total = 25.9 million sq km
2009 Southern Hemisphere = 14.4 million sq km
2009 Northern Hemisphere = 11.5 million sq km
June Total = 25.9 million sq km
May Total = 24.8 million sq km –Northern Hemisphere = 13.4 million sq km
Mark Serreze won’t be issuing an “ice free north pole” soundbite this year.
He’s probably on the back foot after the way the “ice death spiral” soundbite worked out.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa1.jpg
Well compared to what we saw at this time last year (with melt patches appearing), it does look colder up there.
It’s a cool NH year. I wonder if anyone else heard that it was below freezing in Edmonton a few nights ago (-0.6C), and that is at 53° 34′ N. As usual, I offer the disclaimer that even though SOME people think Canada is a land of igloos and dog sleds over tundra, it’s not. An overnight below freezing at this time of year is potentially devastating to crops.
Here in Calgary, it’s almost Stampede week… usually that is the sign that we can definitely rely on summer temperatures (most often with a daily thunderstorm). So far we’ve only seen a bare handful of days you could call “warm”, and the few thunderboomers wandering by have been relatively anemic.
I know, I know, it’s all anecdotal and non-scientific. Too bad. The last year I remember being like this was 1992, and we all know what happened then.
As I recall the ‘Arctic Cam’ last year had both the internal and external temperature shown, this year only the internal (which is +2.5C in the latest photo and seemed to be 2-4C higher than the external temp). Any reason they stopped showing the ‘external’ temp?
What about the Catlin exp?haven’t heard much about results lately…
Have to keep in mind too that there have been at least three volcanic eruptions with ‘cooling’ effects. Im not suprised its cooler this year.
This magical air temperature gets another post? Obviously, the air temperature being at/or below zero is not a good measure of whether the ice is melting, because it is anyway- on par with last year.
Water temperature probably is more important since ice mainly melts from below.
What’s up with the ice-free north pole comments? It’s perfectly normal for that to occur; it has and will continue to happen. This very blog recently has a post on it. So if WUWT says it happens, then it’s fine, but if someone non-WUWT makes a comment, it’s grounds for belittlement?
While it’s debatable that warmer temperatures are a sign of AGW, I am absolutely certain that cooler temps are not!
Still, I’m sure somebody will find an ‘adjustment’ to make it all go away.
The temps. just………flatlined.
Whether or not it’s because of Redoubt and Serychev, it really does seem like there’s the start of cooler times at the pole.
And we do know it’s not because of the world’s factories and cars, as a matter of fact Iceagenow recently observed that the CO2 level is still rising at the same pace with no dip or slow-down because of the major global recession.
If it gets any warmer….
Mannian
Hope you don’t mind, but I just submitted this to Urban Dictionary. It was just too good.
Once you’ve begun the death spiral of the arctic, there’s no stopping it. Unless of course, it doesn’t get above freezing.
I’d be willing to bet that sensor is laying in a pool of water on top of the ice, that would explain constant 0°C temps (if air temps were high enough to melt water that is)
Here is up to date tepms at pole
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/synNNWWarctis.gif
and atmospheric pressure
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/arcisoTTPPWW.gif
No mulfuction of the sensors .
at the end of may occasinaly there was +2C
Webside updates 4 times per day
I love the way snarkiness appears as if from elsewhere as soon as a metric formerly supporting alarmism wanders from the fold and anyone has the temerity to report it where it can be digested by many thousands of possible converts. The sound of tables turning.
You do know that we, on this side of your non-debate, have remained even tempered and polite in the face of threatening behaviour and demeaning name calling, amongst other “things”, when we have dared to question credo?
This was one of the pointers that made me seek a deeper truth than that presented by climate scientists and the mainstream media. Also one of the main reasons that has made me angrier than a trapped wasp and determined to see this through to the end.
Please stop acting as if you are right. There is still no evidence that CO2 did it, does it or will do it.
In addition to the temperature charts, I generally look at the webcam a couple of times a day. One thing I have noticed this year is the lack of sunny days up there. It seems like they get overcast skies for days at a time and then only partial sunshine.
George Tobin (10:29:43) :
If you do a Mannian preferred component analysis to remove data values you did not expect, isn’t there unprecedented warming underway up there? Presenting actual data that has not been properly filtered can only mislead readers, don’t you think?
PCA – Preferred Component Analysis
That about sums AGW up, doesn’t it? Valuable addition to the discourse, George. 🙂
Yes, clearly the sensor is covered with ice. Adding a small heater should solve the problem and bring the readings in line with current policy.
and whats about the temperatures between 70 an 80°N?
This would be very interesting, for me and maybe for others…
I have been trying, without success, to down load the temperature and sea ice data from the DMI. I wanted to compare the sea ice to the 2 meter temperature, and see if there was a correlation.
Whenever I submit my acceptance on the conditions of use, I get….nada…
Anybody here get the same results?
bill (10:29:27) : Are you sure the sensor is not snow/ice covered!
I’m betting this is the problem.
and whats about the temperatures between 70 an 80°N?
Equatorial temperatures are also of great interest to some, but hardly germaine to the topic under discussion here.
How have you concluded that the sensor is covered with ice? It was measuring over 0C two-three days ago. It only went below 0 again the past two days. From Jun 11 to Jun 17 or so it was above 0. The graph seems pretty consistent. Since that time it has been very overcast at that station according to the webcam so the temperatures given seem quite plausible.
Henry Galt
>You do know that we, on this side of your non-debate,
>have remained even tempered and polite in the face of threatening
>behaviour and demeaning name calling, amongst other “things”,
>when we have dared to question credo?
So True! You will never find a single bit of snark posted here directed at Gore, or Hansen, or Mann, or Schmidt, or NASA, or any other misguided buffoon fabricating data for the AWGers!
NASA better get up there and generate some heat!
It’s cold up there in the North, much colder than last year. It’s waiting to unleash itself come fall, like it did last year.
3rd year of very low solar activity.
Southern Hemisphere winter (Aust. & NZ) should be a good indication of what is coming for us in the North.
I would not want to be in the Yukon or anywhere close to it this winter.
They got by just barely last winter.
It will be interesting watching this
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
the next few days. Will it take the turn down or remain the same as 2008?
@ak
Yes, it’s quite normal for the North Pole to be ice free in the summer, but don’t try telling that to the NYT or our lurking warmists!
I googled “Mark Serreze” and the second link with this article at ABC News title “North Pole Could Be Ice Free in 2008” http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=4728737&page=1. The article implies this would be something unusual.
I next googled “Mark Serreze” and “ice free” and found the following:
Jos (10:46:33) :
Is there a surface temperature station in the vicinity that can confirm this lack of temperatures above freezing?
Don’t be daft, there’s a complete lack of asphalt and air conditioning units in the Arctic, so they would never be able to find an appropriate location for a weather station. 😉
David Ermer (12:20:43) :
bill (10:29:27) : Are you sure the sensor is not snow/ice covered!
I’m betting this is the problem.
What sensor, those are model data?
Also why would you expect air temperature adjacent to ice in a temperature inversion to be much above 0ºC (which is above the melting point of first year ice)?
KBK (12:06:20) :
Yes, clearly the sensor is covered with ice. Adding a small heater should solve the problem and bring the readings in line with current policy.
Yes, and I don’t think we can chance automation.
It should be remote controlled.
Meanwhile, in other “news” Climate change is shrinking sheep apparently…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8130907.stm
Alert Canada is presently -2C. This is approximately 82N. I’ve checked this about one or two times a week and it has been below zero. This is an excellent interactive map giving temps of selected places around the arctic basin. Northern Russia is relatively warm (Pevek, Tiksi), Hammerfest Norway is +4 and Resolute is +2C
http://www.athropolis.com/map2.htm
The sun is shining.
But the ice is slippery.
realitycheck (13:21:20) :
Meanwhile, in other “news” Climate change is shrinking sheep apparently…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8130907.stm
“The next step is to extend our description of past change into a predictive model,” said Professor Coulson.
“But it’s too early to say if, in 100 years, we will have chihuahuas herding pocket-sized sheep.”
And in a 1000 years…Subatomic sheepicles!
Looking at the IJIS site, the 2009 line is still riding the 2008 line, marginally above 2005. 2005 is my benchmark for this summer. If we stay closely around, or even above, 2005, that would really put a crimp in arctic ice hysteria.
May not happen tho. “2nd year ice” is still a little bit unknown. Last summer’s experience, in my opinion, did prove that “1st year ice” was a real issue to consider. My working hypothesis is that 2nd year ice will be to a degree, but a lesser degree.
Early August we find out for sure. That’s when the 2008 line crossed below 2005 and kept going south, even tho it bottomed well above 2007.
@Gary Young pearse:
great map. there are only two stations on this map above 80°, Alert and North Pole. Alert at -2°.
For those interested in NZ as a possible indicator of the coming northern winter, June has been officially described as much colder than normal.
At the moment it is snowing inland and did so earlier this week. That means that we have the best ski conditions for many years; many roads are again impassable or need chains. A couple of weeks ago, all schools were closed for a day in Dunedin and unusually low snow led to many minor accidents. I had to stay home because the local roads were closed.
This has happened before, of course, but what is unusual this year is the duration of low temperatures, the increased precipitation and the frequency of snow falls (some years we have none). Australia seems to be the same, at least in the ski area.
However, this is not deterring the true believers. Our city council apparently employs a ‘Safe and Sustainable Travel Co-ordinator’ She asked the council to support ‘350’ activities because we ‘will have an ice-free planet in 30 years’. I emailed councillors with a contrary view and did the true believers react.
I am, of course, a relic of an unprecedented anti-AGW funding blitz by Exxon and others; nine of the last ten years were records for unprecedented warming. ‘NASA scientist James Hanson said so’. I need to be silenced because uninformed people might believe me. I’ve just informed our good councillors that eco-activist/scientist was recently arrested for protest activity, while providing some good web links, including, of course WUWT.
Anyway, folks, if your winter echoes ours so far, its going to be a ripper!
I looked around the website that hosts that figure and I can’t seem to find the data that generated it. Can anyone help me out? Maybe I was looking in the wrong spot.
Steven Hill (12:48:50) :
What about ice mass? I mean, surface area I would expect to follow that curve (+/-) every single year, even if global temp was up 4-5 degrees.
Its really kind of a silly metric isn’t it? Maybe I am ignorant, if so, please feel free to tell my why.
Ben
The DMI archive goes back to 1958 and the annual graphs are almost amazingly consistent at the tops of the curves. I’d suggest that this anomalous flatline be treated with a large degree of suspicion until the information can be backed up or verified. The real proof of the pudding will probably have to wait for the down leg of the curve, where recent years have been rather consistently above the mean line of the graphs.
Isn’t it at all possible that the wind blowing ice out of the Arctic actually released heat from the water?
What I mean is that the freezing of newly exposed areas of water has to have used up some energy.
Ben–
No one doubts ice volume would be a better metric. Unfortunately, it is one we don’t have available to us, neither in current real-time nor in historical comparison. So we use what we have.
That’s a problem for AGW science in general, really. So much certainty expressed for such large holes in the data. It sort of reminds me of what a US Supreme Court justice once said about his job –“The hard part is to sound 100% sure when you’re only 51% sure”.
Eureka is located basically at 80 degrees north (near and dear to me as i worked there in 79-80) and for much of June it was above zero, see:
http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html
and select Eureka Nunavut
And from OZ. Thredbo is waking up to white this morning, with a deep blanket of snow across the mountain and all the way to the village. Freshies for breakfast today…
It’s a fresh snow Friday in the mountains. Another 20cm fell overnight making that 65cm since Tuesday night. It is still snowing. Great snow cover, with freshies galore in the off-piste and sweet smooth groomed for those cruising. The snowmakers also added to the cover on the upper trails.
http://www.thredbo.com.au/
But we were also treated to a daily dose of AGW propaganda on ABC radio about the few misguided people being funded by Exxon just like what happened with tobacco misleading the public. Here’s hoping for a bumper season.
Synop based information over the Arctic: http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?zona=artico&base=bluem&proy=orto&ano=2009&mes=07&day=02&hora=18&vte=Te&enviar=Ver
Anyone have a link to how the winds are doing up there?
Mabie I should invest heavily in winterwear companies…
Interesting site, it is a real time temp map looking down from the North Pole. Unfortunately it only shows over land.
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/arcisoTTPPWW.gif
I really wonder if the increase in volcanic aerosols, along with a solar minimum (increased GCR = more clouds) is having an effect here (more Sun be reflected back?). 2009 extent has been following 2008 lately in the overall, but particular seas are running different than last year. So there has been a change in how it has been melting. It’ll be the minimum that will be of great interest here. 2+ months to go.
-NZ is much colder than last year at the moment. (at least for Wellington)
– Summer in Greece hasn’t showed up properly yet, lot’s of clouds and temperature is below normal, if it continues like this for the rest of July then we’ve skipped summer…
The flatline of temps 100+ days in is not long after the Redoubt eruptions. And the recent eruptions of Sarychev in the Kuril islands has put out quite a bit of SO2 recently, as well. And it’s all staying in the higher latitudes.
The DMI data is not direct measured data. It is reanalysis data – which is the output of a climate model, after direct observations are fed into the model.
Such data is supposed to be most reliable for quantities directly constrained by physical observation such as temperature. The quality is generally much better in the middle lattitudes, and less reliable in polar regions, near the surface, in the tropics or in the stratosphere.
http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-25/3rac/program/V1-201.pdf
realitycheck (13:21:20) :
Meanwhile, in other “news” Climate change is shrinking sheep apparently…
Could it not be that with the warmer climate of the last few years resulting in higher survival rate of the sheep from year to year resulting in greater competition for the available feed the sheep would naturally be of smaller size.
Any farmer who increases their stocking rate grows smaller animals
Sheep have “evolved” since 1985? Darwin’s pocket sheep? You guys have to stop reading Mad Magazine.
I made a prediction about a year ago that 2009 ice would come in about what 2005 ice did. But at this point it is really hard to tell. There is really a mixed bag of temperatures. Places like Anchorage, AK are having a warmer summer this year than last while places like Chicago are cooler.
It certainly “seems” like temperatures are cooler over a wide area this year … but try telling that to someone in the UK this week.
Winnipeg Canada suffers another month of below normal temperatures http://robsobsblog.blogspot.com/
Maybe the Caitlin team knocked over the sensor.
Mark Bowlin (19:00:48) :
Maybe the Caitlin team knocked over the sensor.
Maybe they took it with them and are trying to find somewhere warmer…
Regarding the ice widget, you can click through all the years since 1958 and it’s amazing how closely the actual temperature follows the mean for virtually every year “since records began”! Until this year, that is…
It looks dodgy – either something is not reading correctly, or, something strange is happening this year…
Jimmy Haigh,
did you miss all the posts on the sun, GCR’s, and volcanoes??
It looks strange, even if we’re at aphelion. I don’t know if they’re any measurement problem, but it doesn’t seem to correlate very much with the melting that can be observed rightnow. Take a look at the following from JAXA (date-extent-daily sea ice loss):
7/2/2009 9605000 -117813
7/1/2008 9645000 -77656
7/2/2007 9126875 -162031
7/2/2006 9159063 -79531
7/2/2005 9556719 -58750
7/1/2004 10060625 -32344
7/2/2003 9895938 -71093
7/2/2002 10007813 -36093
2009 is the 4th lowest (5th highest) in the last 8 years but most importantly it has the second most rapidly decaying sea ice: only 2007 did “better”. For example it is decaying rapidly compared to 2008, which as I said is not really coherent with lower temperatures up there.
Crosspatch
“It certainly “seems” like temperatures are cooler over a wide area this year … but try telling that to someone in the UK this week.”
You have just perfectly illustrated the nonsense of national temperatures let alone Global ones. The world is comprised of milions of micro climates. Whilst London (Uhi in a Valley) sweltered in up to 31C we (South West coast of England) have had pleasant mixed weather around 21-23C. Yesterday it rained most of the day and reached 17.5C.
Tonyb
Hi Antony
Thanks for that information. It’s interesting to see a different view, and some interesting data and data sources presented.
As it happens, the weather in London is really hot right now (if you tune into Wimbledon you can see that we’ve all roasting in the sun and both the grass on Centre Court and the spectators there are turning browner by the day).
We had a snowy week last February which you recorded in great detail, and I recall you memorably mentioning then that the London temperature hadn’t exceeded 30C for 1,000 days. Your implication then, as in this story, was that evidence of cold weather meant that global warming clearly wasn’t happening.
Now the temperature here has now been up around and above 30C all week, meaning that it’s hotter now in London than at any time across the past three years. Shock, horror !
Following your logic and reporting criteria (as indeed applied in this story above) we must view this as extremely alarming since it provides such firm and compelling evidence that global warming is back and indeed sharply accelerating here in London.
Unless perhaps your logic works entirely differently during periods of warm weather than it does for cold snaps ?
Anyway, just a thought. Keep up the good work — and meanwhile as in the case of melting Arctic ice perhaps we’ll take such a selective reporting style with just a pinch of salt … !
The graph shows temperatures about +/- 0 C …It’s a calcutated temperature not observed.
Despite the low temperatures in the Arctic it can also indicate a extrem high melting… when the ice melts i sucks all the heat-energy out of the air and water
Flanagan (22:40:13) :
You think its looks strange because the coldness does not fit the melting at this moment.
Flanagan, i understand 100%
But the thing is, the meltings are happening around South East Greenland, West Greenland and certain other regions far from 80 degrees north.
This means that the Core of the arctic ice is likely to be very robust this year.
In August most of these southern areas are normaly melted away, and what will determine the real september minumum is the robustness of the ice north of 80 degrees.
But important (!!) take a look at South east Greenland sea ice extend.
Its very small and indicates that there is not so much ice floating down from the north. This might partly explain why the ice north of 80 degrees is practically without any open sea areas, even small. And this again explain why the temperatures are so low. No open sea ares.
And this lack of ice in South east Greenland is contributing to the low iceextend today, but wil contribute to high ice extend in september.
K.R. Frank
(Ahh, Hej Sven Erik!!)
Could it be that the ice is in the process of absorbing the heat from the atmosphere which is keeping the temperature down and flat for now?
From my article http://pathstoknowledge.wordpress.com/2009/02/22/how-could-we-melt-enough-ice-for-a-20ft-rise-in-sea-levels/ are the following quotes that might be relevant.
“When ice melts, it absorbs as much heat energy (the heat of fusion) as it would take to heat an equivalent mass of water by 80 °C, while its temperature remains a constant 0 °C.” – wikipedia on ice
“When you heat a material, you are adding kinetic energy to its molecules and usually raising its temperature. The only exception is when the material reaches its melting or boiling points. At those two temperatures, the heat energy goes into changing the state of the material. After the state has changed, the temperature will rise again with added heat. The rate temperature changes is the specific heat of the material. The amount of heat required to melt the material is called the latent heat of melting.” – Ron Kurtus
Also see: http://pathstoknowledge.wordpress.com/2009/02/22/a-sea-level-calculator/
Roads
Glad you are enjoying the completely normal hot June days-down here in the South West temperatures tend to be more moderate.
According to CET we have just expereienced the warmest June in the UK since..err…2007.
Tonyb
Roger (12:22:38) :
and whats about the temperatures between 70 an 80°N?
Equatorial temperatures are also of great interest to some, but hardly germaine to the topic under discussion here…
aha,
now i think its not useless to know whats going on at the N pole. like we find some “hot spots” in little regions on the earth, depending on weather coditions. so now, if we look at the arctic, it should be important to know, if there are bigger aereas which are cooler than avererage or only 2 stations.
lets have a look at the weather:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html
high pressure around the pole and low gradient, a subsidenz inversion, positive t at 850hpa and prognosted 0°C at the surface…
Looking at the Cryosphere graphs, anyone else see the very strange sudden drop in ice extent in Antarctica? This is either a reporting error or something that is extremely unusual this time of year..
Regarding the “flatness” of the recent “current temperature derivation” — I merely emailed the contact name for the DMI Center for Ocean and Ice and asked if it was due to a sensor error. I received a prompt reply which I quote:
“Yes – it can seem a little artificial that the mean temperature North of the 80 N parallel follows the melt-line of water, for the past week or more.
However, I do believe the data are all right and just reflect a relative stable period i the Arctic.
When the lower atmosphere is stable, the air temperature will approach the temperature of the surface, which in this case is the ice surface at about melting point. I believe the temperature will approach the climate curve when the lower atmosphere will be less stable and the air will be mixed by stronger winds.
Further, the temperatures that are plotted in the graph are retrieved from an ‘analysis’ model field. That is (a brief version :-)): all available observations are put into a mathematical formulation, that finds the best possible temperature field that fits the observations with the least error. Therefore, it is very unlikely to be a sensor error.”
This response came from a scientist with the “Sektion for Polar Oceanografi”. As this was a response to a personal email I will withhold his name.
Hope this is of interest!
Michael Jennings (06:40:04) :
Looking at the Cryosphere graphs, anyone else see the very strange sudden drop in ice extent in Antarctica? This is either a reporting error or something that is extremely unusual this time of year..
Firstly, it’s area not extent, secondly, it is normal for this time of year once the growth curve starts to roll off (look at the same time last year for example).
SunSword (06:40:07) :
Very informative explanation. The graph still looks unnatural to me. Let’s see how it looks in another week.
Frank Lansner (02:20:47) :
Flanagan (22:40:13) :
You think its looks strange because the coldness does not fit the melting at this moment.
Flanagan, i understand 100%
But the thing is, the meltings are happening around South East Greenland, West Greenland and certain other regions far from 80 degrees north.
This means that the Core of the arctic ice is likely to be very robust this year.
Like it was in 2007?
In August most of these southern areas are normaly melted away, and what will determine the real september minumum is the robustness of the ice north of 80 degrees.
True, but so far there is no sign of any robustness over and above 2007 say.
But important (!!) take a look at South east Greenland sea ice extend.
Its very small and indicates that there is not so much ice floating down from the north. This might partly explain why the ice north of 80 degrees is practically without any open sea areas, even small. And this again explain why the temperatures are so low. No open sea ares.
The flow out of the Fram strait was strong this winter, perhaps it was thinner than usual and broke up faster? As stated above the area north of 80ºN looks about the same as it did in 2007.
And this lack of ice in South east Greenland is contributing to the low iceextend today, but wil contribute to high ice extend in september.
Doubtful.
Phil. (07:53:31) if you look closely at the CT SH anomaly chart, 2009 for July 2, area is 203,703 sq km ahead of same date 2008. That’s 11 pixels, with 54 pixels =1 X 10^6 sq km. 2009 is 55K less area than 2007, 3 pixels, but 2007 was strange as ice was increasing at this time of year, from a minimum in Dec. 2006. NASA says 2007 had unusual currents and winds causing the mass migration of ice out of the arctic.
Phil. (07:53:31) :
“doubtfull” you write. Yes, that true, i failed to write that my assumptions are indeed just a guess.
But Phil, my point is, that the ice flow from the area north of 80 degrees down via South East Greenland is smaller than 2007, and that this is of relevanse to the minimim 2009 sep. You dount agree??
Steve Keohane (10:32:18) :
Phil. (07:53:31) if you look closely at the CT SH anomaly chart, 2009 for July 2, area is 203,703 sq km ahead of same date 2008. That’s 11 pixels, with 54 pixels =1 X 10^6 sq km.
I’m not sure what you mean by ‘ahead’, on the CT SH graph the area is about 500,000 sq km less than in 2008 (11.937 Mm^2)
2009 is 55K less area than 2007, 3 pixels, but 2007 was strange as ice was increasing at this time of year, from a minimum in Dec. 2006. NASA says 2007 had unusual currents and winds causing the mass migration of ice out of the arctic.
This appears to be related to the NH not SH but I don’t see the relevance.
Frank Lansner (10:35:21) :
Phil. (07:53:31) :
“doubtfull” you write. Yes, that true, i failed to write that my assumptions are indeed just a guess.
But Phil, my point is, that the ice flow from the area north of 80 degrees down via South East Greenland is smaller than 2007, and that this is of relevanse to the minimim 2009 sep. You dount agree??
What data do you have to support that assertion?
The Russian base NP-36 is drifting in that direction at average velocity of ~8 km/day over the last week, occasionally up to 12 km/day.
Perhaps the lack of ice there is because the SST is high there?
http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/cgi-bin/amsr/polar_sst/polar_sst.cgi?lang=e
My earlier post about the flatline after 100 days looks pretty normal. I looked at all years (which I should have done before), and that happens in quite a few of them. This year looks quite similar to 2005, except this year is slightly cooler through the Spring up until now. And again, the Arctic is melting off a bit different this year, so there is a different pattern working.
Henry Galt (11:58:26)
Great post – agree with all of it, especially the suggestion that the warmists are shooting themselves in both feet with their intolerance and chippy attitude.
This might be obvious, but it confirms the problem:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/07/02/people_like_congenial_news/
I especially liked this comment from the Professor: “those with little confidence in their own beliefs who are least willing to consider opposing views”
Phil, its quite common knowledge that 2007 had unusual winds etc. leading ice to drift away faster than normal. Or?
Since I have not seen a debate over this “fact” i have not questioned it.
here a random description from the internet:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/10/05/unusual-winds-caused-arctic-ice-melts-not-global-warming
Heres some drift graphics, and its true, hard to see the big difference between 2007 and 2009 from this:
ftp://ftp.ifremer.fr/ifremer/cersat/products/gridded/psi-drift/quicklooks/arctic/amsre-merged/6-daily/
But you are sure that 2009 have similar wind phenomenon pushing ice away from the arcic as in 2007? Howcome we havent heard of this?
Here are graphic temperature data in the arctic 23-25 june 2009:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/arktisjuni25.gif
29 june 2009:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/arktis29juni.gif
2 july 2009:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/arktis2juli.gif
So if everyone believes these data are some error, its very unlikely that so many stations shouls have error at the same time.
No, face it, it has indeed been record cold up there this year. Amazing.
And i agree fully with “Bill” : This is an error and the missing high temperatures are due to frozen themometers 🙂
First we have the biggest survey made this year showing that ice is thicker than expected (Wegner) then we have cold temperatures.
Nature knows how to make a thriller.
June and July at Alert 82 degrees north has seen a majority of below freezing temperatures.
http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html
Using my knowledge of Arctic history and observing the cool PDO and the low level of activity of the Sun I am predicting another increase in the minimum level of ice this year. Basically my use of common sense against the consensus of science. I haven’t yet figured out what the consensus of scientists use to make their predictions of less and less ice. I don’t think they use science.
Bremen Arctic ice for July 3 2007
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2007/jul/asi-n6250-20070702-v5_nic.pdf
Bremen Arctic ice for July 3 2008
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2008/jun/
Bremen today
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/arctic_AMSRE_nic.png
Bremen 2008 index of Arctic ice here
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2008/jul/
Frank Lansner (14:03:54) :
Phil, its quite common knowledge that 2007 had unusual winds etc. leading ice to drift away faster than normal. Or?
Since I have not seen a debate over this “fact” i have not questioned it.
But you asserted that “the ice flow from the area north of 80 degrees down via South East Greenland is smaller than 2007”, which is what I questioned.
But you are sure that 2009 have similar wind phenomenon pushing ice away from the arcic as in 2007? Howcome we havent heard of this?
I don’t know why, I’ve pointed out the strong flow through the Fram several times during the winter/spring.
At the ARCUS site you can find the following:
“Although fall 2008 had almost 0.5 million square kilometers more multiyear sea ice extent than fall 2007, on 1 May 2009, the perennial ice extent had been reduced to 2.1 million square kilometers, which is virtually equivalent to the 2.2 million square kilometers of perennial ice extent on 1 May 2008. The sea ice on the Eurasian side of the North Pole is primarily second-year sea ice remaining from summer 2008; indications are that part of this sea ice exited Fram Strait under the influence of a more positive Arctic Oscillation climate pattern in winter and spring 2009.”
Phil. (11:41:41):
“Perhaps the lack of ice there is because the SST is high there?”
http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/cgi-bin/amsr/polar_sst/polar_sst.cgi?lang=e
If there had been large amounts of ice being melted by the seawater in that area, wouldn’t that cause the SST to fall due to the influx of cold melt-water as well as energy for the phase change being drawn from the sea surface water?
Perhaps you got the cause and effect switched, and instead the high SST there is because of relatively less ice being pushed out through the Fram strait.
Also see:
SunSword (06:40:07) :
“Regarding the “flatness” of the recent “current temperature derivation” — I merely emailed the contact name for the DMI Center for Ocean and Ice and asked if it was due to a sensor error. I received a prompt reply which I quote:
“Yes – it can seem a little artificial that the mean temperature North of the 80 N parallel follows the melt-line of water, for the past week or more.
However, I do believe the data are all right and just reflect a relative stable period i the Arctic.
When the lower atmosphere is stable, the air temperature will approach the temperature of the surface, which in this case is the ice surface at about melting point. I believe the temperature will approach the climate curve when the lower atmosphere will be less stable and the air will be mixed by stronger winds.
Further, the temperatures that are plotted in the graph are retrieved from an ‘analysis’ model field. That is (a brief version :-)): all available observations are put into a mathematical formulation, that finds the best possible temperature field that fits the observations with the least error. Therefore, it is very unlikely to be a sensor error.”
This response came from a scientist with the “Sektion for Polar Oceanografi”. As this was a response to a personal email I will withhold his name.”
At least DMI seem to think that the unusually low June temperatures above 80N is due to stable lower atmosphere, i.e. less wind pushing the ice out of the Arctic down the Fram strait.
Regards
As of July 2, it seems a bit early to assume that the temperature record has flat-lined as a peak, but it is certainly possible. (Unlikely, but possible: The current “flat-line” could be the peak temperatures for 2009.) But – if the Arctic temperatures remain at today’s levels for only another 2 weeks, then, yes, they may will be at their peak. Remaining at this level (near zero) for another 3 weeks would be a good indication that this year has vert low, very long flat-lined peak that indicates:
that 2007 low sea-ice measure has been recovered from,
that the theoretical scare-case scenario of Arctic ice melting -> uncovering bare ground and open water -> the bare ground and open water heating the air even more -> the heated air melting even more ice the next winter is completely wrong.
Realistically, we cannot influence nor change the temperatures up there, but can only watch, record, and wonder. (Of course, it is more fun to predict and argue about what the Arctic temperatures and sea ice measures will do than just to watch …)
—
The Arctic is critical to AGW-CO2 theory because it is so cold, so dry up there that the greenhouse gas effect oF CO2 dominates that of water vapor: so the AGW-greenhouse gas theory REQUIRES that Arctic temperatures increase faster and more visibly with increases in CO2 ion the Arctic.
One thing I haven’t yet figured out is why the end of one year’s data is not the beginning of another. Click 1999 on the data set, and then 2000. Note the end of 1999 is far lower than the beginning of 2000. Why?
But the ice anomaly sinks…
Looks as if the snow has blown away from the sensor! Temps now seem to be rising.
The temp sensor is supposed to be 1metre above snow? But the turbine and “box” in the picture show no such instrument.
Is the sensor on the camera location? If so then the camera has visually been in a snow drift for the last few weeks. Would the sensor therefor be covered also?