UK's Met Office loses 25% of its funding

As someone pointed out on another blog a few days ago, the Nature News item that is quoted in the Register blog post has this gem from Gavin Schmidt:

“Climate research should be as open and transparent as possible,” says Schmidt, “and institutional links with the defence establishment can sometimes impede that goal.”

Kind of (but not really) OT, it’s funny that the hockey team still doesn’t realize that their buddy politicians are going to throw them under the bus as soon as it is politically expedient.

Terry (17:59:22) :
“Kind of (but not really) OT, it’s funny that the hockey team still doesn’t realize that their buddy politicians are going to throw them under the bus as soon as it is politically expedient.”
This comment caught my eye: so true. Hell have no wrath like a politician cornered. Once it is realised just how non-existent the “science” behind global warming is, and therefore just how bad (and damaging) resulting legislation has been, its going to be a case of “those scientists’ lied to us”. The most interesting to watch will be Al Gore. Notice how he doesn’t really commit himself, but always uses the “scientists’ tell us” approach. Fortunately, in his case at least, I don’t think the plausible deniability will work.
Fortunately we have a Senator in Australia who has the balancing vote in the upcoming carbon tax legislation vote (our version of Cap and Trade). He is trying to understand the basics of the science: ie why, if CO2 continues to increase steady, temperature isn’t. Like anyone who starts to try to understand man-made global warming, he’s beginning to realise it’s a crock.

“The pull-out will be the first time Met Office climate research has gone without MoD money. For several years now, the MoD has been the Hadley Center’s primary customer and funder for climate modeling.”
The war against the Western economy’s must be over, just like Iraq It’s Mission Accomplished.

I forecast an increase in predicted temperatures of 25%.

“Now how will they pay for the electricity to run “deep black”, the 1.2 megawatt supercomputer they just purchased?
Prophetic…… Pedal faster Nigel!

And they expected what – a never-ending gravy train? The feel-good, agenda-driven science might wrap itself in the plight of the poor polar bear, but MOD is driven by a need for results; get it wrong too often and the MOD folks will look to cut their losses, just as politicians most everywhere seem to be quick to cut military spending.

Is that “dart board weather station” a photo of the Met Office’s new computer?
But where’s the power cord?

bill (19:29:17)
The warm fortnight in June will be a fond memory if we have the same bleak summer school holidays we had for the last two years, not predicted by the Met. office. I hope there isn’t a repeat of the unpredicted weeks of snow we had earlier this year, in a few months time. I suspect too many squaddies may have complained of being frozen on Salisbury Plain.

Bill,
They may getting temperatures close, but have you noticed that on the BEEB at least, no two Met Office forecasts are the same and that the weather tomorrow in the UK will not be that forecast today.
Take last Friday. All week the met office forecasters on the beeb were telling us it would be fine all week then rain all weekend. Rain Friday, beautiful weekend. Spot on. Not.
If they can’t forecast for tomorrow with any accuracy, why should we give their climate predictions for a hundred years hence any credence?
As an aside, being ex-RAF, wonder whether the reduction in MoD funding means the Met Office forecasters at military bases are at threat from redundancy?
Cheers
Bil

John F. Hultquist says:
“If a country wants to trade with the USA that country will have to have at least as stringent laws as the USA. Otherwise there will be import duties (tax).:
Ok, So tell me what happens when American companies want to export products somewhere? Do you think that the US trading partners are simply going do nothing while the US imposes arbitrary import duties in the same of ‘saving the environment’.
In fact, I believe the bill actually exempts exporters from the CO2 limits which means that any trading parter could do the same for their exporters and claim that they have “equivalent” regulations.
The bill better die in the senate or the US will be in for some major economic hardship which will unfortunately affect people around the world.

FatBigot
…but no tennis at Wimbledon lost to rain (yet). Didn’t you just know that putting that retractable roof on centre court would guarantee a dry summer?

I hadn’t heard about this, but I’m not surprised, the Army needs every penny for bullets etc. and they don’t need the Met Office to tell them that Afghanistan is hot. Our own Dear Leader, Gordon Brown, has crocked the nation’s finances; winning two elections for the Great Leader, Tony, by creating the illusion of prosperity by borrowing, then being caught out by the global economic downturn and having to borrow even more. Basically we have no money and there are big cuts coming in health, education and defence, let alone climate change. The only up-side is that we cannot afford to join in with the orgy of self-flagellation that is CO2 reduction, and hopefully the politicians will want to quietly sideline the issue.

As I commented on another blog – “Shouldn’t be a problem. Surely it can’t cost very much for a laptop and printer capable of printing “The next summer will reach record high temperatures followed by a much-warmer-than-average winter” from a .txt file.
They’re going to be correct sometimes, on the same basis as the “stopped clock” theory.

John F. Hultquist (22:31:07) :
Steven Hill (17:59:15) “. . . by limiting CO2 just in America,”
Not exactly. If a country wants to trade with the USA that country will have to have at least as stringent laws as the USA. Otherwise there will be import duties (tax).
At least I saw that mentioned – haven’t been sent a copy of the full text yet.
Reply not sure Obama agrees.
“…..but he expressed reservations about a controversial provision that would slap tariffs on imports from countries that did not similarly crack down on greenhouse gas emissions.”
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-energy29-2009jun29,0,1735155.story

Slightly OT but UK related.
This is a legal decision subject to appeal, but if it stands AGW is now pretty close to being a religion. At an employment tribunal, Nicholson v Grainger PLC and others ET 2203367/08, the claimant persuaded the tribunal that his belief linked to concerns about AGW are protected under the Religion or Belief Regulations as it affected most aspects of his life, choice of home, means of travel, etc. If AGW is an article of faith there is no more need for rational proof.

Fatbigot and others;
The reason they forecast a wet weekend was the Glastobury Festival. That usually guarantees a downpour or several. Glastonbury just ain’t the same without six inches of mud for the boys and girls to frolic in.
This lack of rain at Wimbledon is also a bit spooky. If at least one test match isn’t rained off, this whole climate change thing will start to look real!

Jim Turner (02:02:19) :
…The only up-side is that we cannot afford to join in with the orgy of self-flagellation that is CO2 reduction, and hopefully the politicians will want to quietly sideline the issue.
That’s not what has happened in Scotland where the idiot politicians have just passed our Climate Bill which commits us to 42% cut in CO2 emissions by 2020! If ever evidence was required for politicians living in an parallel universe this must be it. By the way it is 18’C here, at 1pm BST, when the Sun is at it’s highest – so the Met Offices long heralded heat wave has yet to reach here.

“Not exactly. If a country wants to trade with the USA that country will have to have at least as stringent laws as the USA. Otherwise there will be import duties (tax).
At least I saw that mentioned – haven’t been sent a copy of the full text yet”
That sounds like a good plan for massive inflation.

“Not exactly. If a country wants to trade with the USA that country will have to have at least as stringent laws as the USA. Otherwise there will be import duties (tax).”
They should ask a couple of guys named Smoot and Hawley how that kind of thing turns out.
Not to mention that our new Chinese financial overlords will Not Be Amused.

The conclusions made by the MoD that climate change is not a serious threat stands in steep contrast with the US point of view that describes climate change as a threat to the strategic interests of the US and the US military world wide.
So, besides the fact that there is no consensus among our scientists we now see the same happening among the UK versus US military.
Sometimes budget cuts help us to get the real facts on the table.
I see the MoD move to retract her Met Office Budget as a pragmatic step to reduce the defense budget and a substantial weakening of the climate change doctrine.
Especially because the MoD is part of the British Government.
We now have a situation in Britain where part of the Government is wrecking the economy to fight climate change and another part of the Government simply states
“There is no problem”.
I can only say that I welcome this step and hope that many more influential Defense Ministries will cut there climate research budgets for the same reason.

Rathtyen – Al Gore is far too closely associated with global warming alarmism to have any kind of plausible deniability if/when AGW is discredited. He’ll probably end up moping around on the political fringe with Ralph Nader and Dennis Kucinich.
But we should be very worried about what kind of damage it will do to science. All the politicians and media figures who have staked their own credibility on AGW will be looking for a scapegoat, and they’ll be desperate to blame everything on scientists and environmentalists.

PS Just in case, this was NOT an attack on British troops, but the political system that put them in the mess they’re in, in the first place!
AtB

Richard Heg (03:45:24) :
John F. Hultquist (22:31:07) :
Steven Hill (17:59:15) “. . . by limiting CO2 just in America,”
Reply not sure Obama agrees.
“…..but he expressed reservations about a controversial provision that would slap tariffs on imports from countries that did not similarly crack down on greenhouse gas emissions.”
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-energy29-2009jun29,0,1735155.story
Interesting… Don’t apply the tariffs and you put domestic producers at a disadvantage, apply tariffs and you sparks trade wars. Either way, the law of unintended consequences prevails. This is mindless!

I think most people in the UK think weather forecasting is now an even bigger joke than it used to be in the past.
The Met Office are never happier than when they are putting out their Severe Weather Warnings and the latest ploy is to dictate how we should look after ourselves in a heatwave. I know heatwaves are not as common in the UK as they are in some parts of the world but most of us have managed to live through them before without weather forecasters all of a sudden becoming health experts. If their pay cut stops this nonsense I’m all for it!
We must remember that the current panic is based purely and simply on the fact that it is likely to get a bit ‘ot in London in the next couple of days. In the US you have the Beltway; over here we have the M25. According to our MSM (and those who feed them) anything happening outside that doesn’t really exist. The 5-day weather summaries on the BBC’s Ceefax facility last night showed nowhere else across the UK with temps above the mid-20sC. North-east coast and east Scotland is barely getting out of the teens.
We peasants tend not to bother over much about these things; we just take off another layer or open the odd window and drink lots of cool beer till things go back to normal.
When we go back to drinking hot tea!

This is what it’s been all about from the beginning– all the data hoarding, data laundering, reluctance to discuss or engage on the issues, refusal to explain statistical methods, etc.: they were petrified that if the truth became known, i.e. that their claims were dubious and that their work product was inferior, that they would lose funding.
Now it’s happening anyway. They are losing funding because of a deep recession causing a loss in tax revenue and a political scandal that is eating away at government credibility. Government is in the process of straightening out it’s affairs, and when that happens it means job losses and cuts.
Maybe they will be more forthcoming with the data from here on out, but I won’t hold my breath. But as long as the temperatures continue to drop, the pressure for audit and review will increase.

Peter Hearnden (09:50:37) :
“The UK Met Office have been forecast a heatwave for several days – it has duly arrived. Well done the Met office for another correct forecast.”
Care to provide your sources?
Here’s London Heathrow right now, in the hottest part of the day:
27C / low of 16C. Forecasts do not rise to the level of “heatwave”.
http://weather.msn.com/local.aspx?&wealocations=wc%3aUKXX0085&q=London%2c+GBR&setunit=C
Here’s a report of the Met from a week ago (19 June):
“The Met Office says it is too early to tell whether it will be a very hot summer this year, but the signs so far are that it will be warmer than our last two summers and conditions could well trigger its heatwave warning system.
In London, this would mean daytime temperatures had exceeded 32C and night-time temperatures were over 18C degrees. In the North West, it would be 30C and 15C, respectively.”
And here’s a current story:
“Britain sizzles in heatwave”
“The Met Office has issued a “heat health” warning for this week, with a 60 per cent chance of temperatures reaching 32C (89.6F) while night time temperatures in some areas could remain as high as 18C (64.4F).”
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20090629/tuk-britain-sizzles-in-heatwave-dba1618.html
A 60% chance of a nearfuture event? A “could be hot” summer forecast?
89/64F just doesn’t sound like a heatwave to me.
This does:
“At 14:32 BST on Wednesday, July 19, 2006, it was confirmed that the previous highest July maximum temperature, (36.0 °C, 96.8 °F at Epsom, Surrey in 1911), had been beaten at Charlwood, near Gatwick Airport with a temperature of 36.3 °C (97.3 °F). Later it was confirmed that 36.5 °C (97.7 °F) had been recorded at Wisley, Surrey. This confirmed that the period of prolonged warm weather was a true heat wave. However, despite some predictions, the United Kingdom’s all-time temperature high of 38.5 °C (101.3 °F) attained at Faversham, Kent, on 10 August 2003 was not reached.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_heat_wave_of_2006

Oops, I left out the link for the 19 June quote, and it was 19 May.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8057528.stm
The “current story” link I posted would seem to be adequate to disprove that a Met forecast has “duly arrived” and/or is “correct”.

Peter Hearnden : rather than defending the Met Office and the Hadley Centre with platitudes and beatifying the actors therein, maybe you could respond specifically to the behavior detailed in this post:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6324

Peter Hearnden (09:50:37)
“But, then, perhaps I’m the only person here ever to have actually met and listened to a scientist from the Hadley Centre,”
WRONG

It strikes me that we are all missing the most salient point revealed by this story, which is the relatively great deal the people of the UK are getting for their money. Using the arithmetic I learned from the nuns in Catholic school, long, long ago in a galaxy far, far away, the fact that $7 million equals a 25% cut would mean that their precut budget was $28 million. Hansen and the crew at GISS have been setting us back for over a billion/year for quite a while to rather incompetently replicate what NOAA is providing already at similar levels of cost and skill. Not to mention the other billions we are providing to fund highly cogent studies of ” The Effect of Global Warming on the Prevalence of Clubfoot in the Population of Three toed Sloths of Lower Patagonia” and thousands of other research topics deemed relevant for funding almost exclusively by the inclusion of the magical syllables “Global Warming” in the title. One could only wish that the taxpayers of the US would be subjected to so meager a dunning to pay for our daily dose of Warmisr propaganda as our compatriots in the UK.

Andrew P
“That’s not what has happened in Scotland where the idiot politicians have just passed our Climate Bill which commits us to 42% cut in CO2 emissions by 2020! If ever evidence was required for politicians living in an parallel universe this must be it.”
Nothing new here though. Aristophanes had it summed up in “The Birds” back in x*10^2.441BC or whenever (too idle to look it up) – our leaders (LOL) and their hangers on in the Big Smoke (London to you foreigners) and our other capitals live in “Cloud Cuckoo Land.” They hardly seem to notice that we voters exist. But they will!

Heatwaves? Overhere in the Netherlands you need at least 5 consecutive day in wich temperatures reach 25 degrees or more and in that same period you need three (tropical) days with temperatures of at least 30 degrees.
Its not even close to a heatwave this week, the last one we had was in 2006, the summer of 1947 is still the hottest on record with 16 tropical days (divided of 4 heatwaves). It may be hot here in the Netherlands at the moment, but it certainly is nowhere near any record. Its just weather.

The 42% cut in emissions in Scotland is going to be a good trick if we can do it. All this without nuclear power as well!
It means reducing almost all human activity by at least half. Travel, heating, lighting.
Breathing!
Perhaps the eco-fascists would like to go first. I’d welcome a demonstration on how to reduce my personal CO2 output by half.

I believe ITER Fusion Experiment follow ons will be producing the electricity required in about 100 years. Unless the Polywell Fusion Reactor boys beat them to it.
Another reason not to give up on coal prematurely: reliable sources of electricity will be required to run the climate models.

With regard to the much discussed “heatwave” here in the UK, the BBC has taken to showing a dramatic pale pinkish weather map with a small blood red spot over London which then expands to cover most of the country.
Are they trying to tell (sell) us something?

The Met Office keep prediciting a sizzling summer. Sooner or later they’re going to be right due to the law of averages. And then they will be even more insufferable…

““But, then, perhaps I’m the only person here ever to have actually met and listened to a scientist from the Hadley Centre,”
WRONG”
That’s good!
Maximum temperature 27C or above again today across many part of England – so in the very warm to hot category for our country.

Ron de Haan (07:01:19) :
In adition to my earlier posting: I welcome the MoD to the skeptic community.
Oh I wish!!

Steven Hill (05:25:44) :
“Not exactly. If a country wants to trade with the USA that country will have to have at least as stringent laws as the USA. Otherwise there will be import duties (tax).
At least I saw that mentioned – haven’t been sent a copy of the full text yet”
That sounds like a good plan for massive inflation.
Right Steven, but that is not all.
What to think about consumer freedom, the freedom to choose a product!
And the fact that we will have much less products available.
These are measures which will bring us on the level of the former Sovjet Economy
that we have destroyed by the concept of a free market economy.
This country is run by geniuses holding the standards of real apparatchiks.
Do you already imagine the cues in front of the shops?

“The fact is that throughout 90% of the UK, temperatures have been either average or slightly above average over the past week…with an unremarkable and entirely expected 24c being the maximum temperature in my area”
I’d bet more than 10% of the country will have experience a heat wave (as per Met Office definition) – indeed Doncaster (in your Yorkshire I believe) reached above 26C yesterday (and is 25C as I write) as did some other reporting station in the area.
With places all over the country already above 25C this Wednesday morning (Aberdeen, Inverness, Doncaster, Benson, Manchester, Ross on Wye much or the Area around London for example) it now looks that 32C or 90F may very well be reached either today of tomorrow somewhere in the UK – if it happens that is an unusual event.

To Ron de Haan,
Do you seriously think the US will start imposing trade tarriffs on Chinese made goods. You forget the golden rule of business, he who has the gold makes the rules. Detroit was conspicuously quiet and did not oppose the tightening of the fuel mandates this spring because 2 of the big three were on life support from a liberal US governemt. Well guess what, the US’s governement finances are on life support for the Chinese governements sovreign wealth funds. My guess the tarriffs are there just for window dressing. Obama already said trade barriers and tarriffs in the cap and trade bill are a bad idea. Want to guess why?