Australia delays carbon trading

Details here at news.com.au

Meanwhile, let’s all sleep in tomorrow.

carbon_trading

INTRODUCTION of the Federal Government’s emissions trading scheme has been delayed until mid-2011, 12 months later than originally planned.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd made the announcement in Canberra today, saying the Government had also decided to increase the upper limit of its carbon reduction target range to 25 per cent of 2000 emission levels by 2020.

The Government had planned to introduce the scheme in July 2010 despite opposition from business, green groups and the Coalition.

Legislation setting up the scheme was due to be introduced to Parliament next month.

The announcement follows a decision by the Australian Greens to compromise and lower their demand for a 40 per cut in carbon emissions to 25 per cent.

Mr Rudd said the “significant” changes to the scheme were made because of three factors: the impact of the global financial crisis on the Australian economy; the need to provide a strong outcome at the Copenhagen (climate) meeting at the end of the year; and third, because it was in Australia’s fundamental national interest to provide “business certainty and investment certainty for the future”.

A one-year fixed price period will be introduced – permits will cost $10 per tonne of carbon in 2011-12 – with the transition to full market trading to begin on July 1, 2012.

“This, we believe, represents an appropriate response to the current uncertainty,” Mr Rudd said.

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91 thoughts on “Australia delays carbon trading

  1. “Current uncertainty.”

    I love how they think the uncertain will become certain in 2 years. But, at least, they did delay it. It’s a small step, and I’ll take it.

  2. Does anyone reading this have access to GCM model runs?
    I’m curious if there is a higher probability of a ten year pause in temperatures between different models?
    Been having this back-and-forth on Chris Colose’s blog(‘Decadal scale coolings no unlikely), and this is a bottleneck.

  3. I wonder why Mr. Rudd left out the getting voted out of office factor in his list of drivers of significant changes to the scheme.

  4. For some context, the Greens in Australia are represented in the Senate. They get about 8% of the vote in national elections.

    The opposition Australian Liberal Party (conservative) are yet to respond. With the current parliament they or all the Greens and two independents are required to pass legislation.

    The government look like they will delay attempting to pass any legislation regarding such a scheme until after Copenhagen. After that they will they have to get support for the legislation in the Senate as described earlier.

  5. Whatever the justifications Mr Rudd uses his decision has to be good news. Maybe in 2011 a further delay may be put in place because of significant current global cooling. Here in NZ our new government has gone one step further by completely canning (with lid firmly on) any ETS until further notice.

  6. Looks like our Canadian Federal Liberal party is still thinking of introducing a Carbon Tax if they are elected. It didn’t work in the last election and it won’t work in the next.
    http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2009/05/02/9327116-cp.html

    As for our other minority party, the NDP, here are some quotables from their official web site: http://www.ndp.ca/press/ndp-brings-back-first-climate-change-accountability-act

    “Our legislation sets tough but achievable targets that will ensure Canada does its share to avoid the dangerous two-degree increase in average global temperature that scientists warn us about,”

  7. Although on the face of it it seems like a win for common sense, the issue is a two-edged sword. Sure the delay gives them an “out” of the ets especially if the Climate continues its downhill spiral. But these are out of touch pollies. Rudd is pandering to business. The delay may well mean higher ets targets as a trade-off. A lot hangs on what will happen at Copenhagen later in the year.

    Don’t count ya chickens. Rudd is no smarter than Obama when it comes to AGW.

  8. “Time works for us. Only for us.”
    Having told a warmist he’s a fool for taking the BS and chips as read and not using his eyes, I then really wind them up by refusing to continue the conversation saying, ‘Let’s discuss this in five years and see how many admit to having believed in AGW’.

  9. I’m shocked by the Australian Greens – cowards – willing to compromise their ideals – what are they thinking, that saving GAIA from the depradations of callous humanity can wait for another year?

    Now, if only the local Conservative Oppostion (Liberal Party) would grow a spine, and a brain, and come out of the AGW Realist closet.

  10. The latest date for the next Australian federal election is end of 2010. By then Kevin Rudd and his socialist government will be just a memory for those of us Aussies who wish to remember. I listened to his talk this morning and it was punctuated with in-numerable utterances about ‘climate change. His degree is in economics after all so he has only received information from his ‘advisors’ to muse over. A chief advisor is his Minister for the Environment named Peter Garrett. Some of you might have heard of him in bygone days . He was a rock and roll singer in a band called ‘Midnight Oil’ (I kid you not!).

  11. HEADLINES: Aussies postpone trip to eco-looney bin.
    Canadian NDP prepares to pour the Flavor-Aid:

    “New Democrats are looking forward to a sustainable future where Canada’s economy is buoyed by environmental initiatives.”

    Eco-initiatives have all the economic buoyancy of an osmium blimp. But get a load of the NDP website. We get to gaze right up Jack Layton’s nostrils as he “looks forward” to that blimp taking off. But where is his Kennedy hairdo? Quick, get my sunglasses.

  12. Finally after 17 months of Rudd government I hear some common sense and can agree with something they’ve done. I can’t bring myself to cheer though as I’m sure Peter Garrett and Penny wong (environment and climate change ministers) are wringing their hands in despair and plotting a more powerful ETS for 2011.

    One thing that does cheer me is a radio interview I heard with a sceptic who has met Kevin Rudd. I wish I caught his name at the time. He felt that Kevin Rudd was now a sceptic but alas, didn’t know how to publicly declare his thoughts on the issue. I would think such a turn around from K Rudd is almost impossible as he lives for public acclaim and adoration.

    Nevertheless this gives me time to gather more information and take it to my local member of parliament. C’mon Aussies, let’s bombard our MPs with information and let them know that the Australian public won’t be fooled. Let the rebellion begin! Demand a proper public debate about AGW. :-)

  13. F Rasmin, I didn’t realize that!

    So, obviously Garret’s personal interest is in stopping the emissions from all those burning beds???

  14. Ahhh, 12 months of wriggle room!

    It will give the greens time to compromise from “it aint going to happen 40%” to “it aint going to happen 25%” to “it aint going to happen…%”

    Why isn’t an Australian in charge of the world?

    Regards

    Michael

  15. F Rasmin (22:58:34) :
    A chief advisor is his Minister for the Environment named Peter Garrett. Some of you might have heard of him in bygone days . He was a rock and roll singer in a band called ‘Midnight Oil’ (I kid you not!).

    More amusingly, ol’ Peter Garrett was waxing lyrical last week over the imminent collapse of the wilkinson ice shelf. When it was pointed out that the picture (and news story) were several years old at that point, the scuffling sound you heard wsa him backpeddling. The other clippity-clop sound was the Minister for Climate Change, Penny Wong, putting as much distance between her Garrett and the ice shelf as possible…

  16. How, exactly, does an initial tax of $10 per tonne of plant food constitute “victory”. Should Australians celebrate the fact that the the Robber Barron’s are only taking SOME of their money? It’s a tax, any way you look at it, on every man, woman and child in the country. Break out the champagne!

  17. For any WUWT readers in Melbourne on Sunday 24th May, I am presenting at a suymposium at Monash University on Natural Climate Change. The symposium is being run by Professor Lance Endersbee. I am on a 3.15 pm – 44 slides in 25 minutes.

  18. He’s not so silly after all! Kevin Rudd is hedging his bets. The political climate here is going against this folly.

    For a pithy, entertaining live discussion between the abovementioned environment minister Peter Garret, Australian Green Senator Sarah Hanson-Young, and bull-terrier tenacious Independent Senator and champion of common sense Barnaby Joyce you should watch Episode 12 of the Australian ABC ‘s live political forum Q and A (Joyce on the far right of panel):

    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/vodcast.htm

    Regards,

    LK

  19. Being from the USA, this is very sad. Waxman, Markey, Pelosi, Chu, and others in the US government make Mr. Rudd sound reasonable and statesman-like.

    While in Canada the NDP wants to “…reduce Canadian greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.”
    The details of that plan must include some science and engineering I’ve yet to hear about. Unless their plan is to turn everything off and move everyone but the natives and the polar bears to Zimbabwe. They will have to walk and swim to get there. Only Gore and the Prince are allowed to use hydrocarbons under these rules.

  20. Michael (23:09:43) : Oh dear God, don’t wish that upon the world! Mr Rudd at the Bali summit just after his election made a comment about uniting the world against climate change. That was the moment I decided his ambition was to be Secretary General of the UN and be king of the world. Ever since, I’ve called him Kevin-Kevin Rudd. Nothing I’ve seen since has changed my mind about his ambitions. :-S

  21. “F Rasmin (22:58:34) :

    A chief advisor is his Minister for the Environment named Peter Garrett. Some of you might have heard of him in bygone days . He was a rock and roll singer in a band called ‘Midnight Oil’ (I kid you not!).”

    And he was famous for not voting too. Strange now he want’s people to vote for him. Voting is compulsory in Australia.

  22. Good for the Aussies. Now if only the Obama administration will adopt a similar position and delay any climate change laws. Delay is on the side of the anti AGW side as this will allow the trend of further cooling which will completely throttle future ideas of Cap and Trade nonsense.

  23. “F Rasmin (22:58:34) :

    The latest date for the next Australian federal election is end of 2010. By then Kevin Rudd and his socialist government will be just a memory for those of us Aussies who wish to remember.”

    I was not able to vote last time, so only those Aussies foolish enough to believe a politician like KRudd747. I will however be able to vote in 2010. Will I want to? I very much doubt it! I have yet to meet a politician that is worthy of my support. So far, since the days of Thatcher in the UK, I’ve seen them feather their nests at my expense. An ETS will just be another layer of feathers.

  24. Pedro X (21:57:39) :

    For some context, the Greens in Australia are represented in the Senate. They get about 8% of the vote in national elections.

    For our non Australians I will expand a little on this and hope you will correct me if I’m wrong.

    The Senate is one of the two houses of the Australian Federal Parliament. It consists of 76 Senators, twelve from each of the six states and two from each of the mainland territories. It has virtually equal power to make laws with the other House of Parliament, the House of Representatives. It is elected by proportional representation, so that its composition closely reflects the voting pattern of the electors.

    Currently the seats are held by these parties.

    Australian Labor Party 32, Liberal Party of Australia 32, Australian Greens 5, National Party of Australia 4, Country Liberal 1, Family First 1, Independent 1.

    The Australian Labor Party would be the equivalent of the Liberals in the US and the Liberal Party of Australia would be the equivalent the Republicans.

    National Party of Australia are generally allied with the Liberals but represent the rural community (farmers). The rest are reasonably self explanatory.

    Labor and the Greens can muster 37 seats and Liberal and Nationals 36.

    So the balance of the house is held by the three minor parties.

    With regards to the carbon dioxide tax, the liberals are weak in that they have not got across the fact that this nasty piece of legislation is a tax on everything used by the public and industry. The Nationals, led by Barnaby Joyce, are well aware of the destructive consequences this will have on all primary producers and nation wide industry. He is often the lone voice of sanity in the entire two political houses of Australia.

  25. From Michael (23:09:43) :

    “Why isn’t an Australian in charge of the world?”

    Michael – it’s not all as it seems!

    A brief summary:

    – Kevin Rudd heads the Australian Labor Party. They are a left leaning socialist party.

    – Kevin Rudd was elected on a platform of saving the environment and saving jobs from the evil John Howard (The Liberals – right leaning party).

    – Kevin Rudd signs the Kyoto Protocol (to much applause) and promises to introduce an emissions trading scheme (ETS), to much fanfare.

    – The ETS draft is released with a 5% reduction of 2000 levels by 2020. This is laughed at by the Greens who want a more drastic target of 40% or greater – but with no idea on how this will be achieved (!).

    – The opposition party wants to block the ETS, but only on the grounds that it not be rushed through and be fully considered. (The opposition party are in favour of an ETS, however, not one that is not introduced it until 2012).

    – The opposition party and the Greens party have the balance of power and can block the ETS legislation in our Senate, which gives them bargaining power – hence the 25%. So in fact, Kevin Rudd has had to bow to the Greens to get the target from 5% to 25%!!

    – In the meantime, our carbon intensive industries (of which we have many) have been decrying the ETS and giving an indication of job losses. Many of the job losses are “blue-collar” (working class) jobs that Kevin Rudd vowed to protect! (As a side note, Kevin Rudds political was founded by the union movement (teamsters eqivalent) in Australia – so he’s painted himself into a corner).

    Kevin Rudd is basically buying himself some time. He’s still publicly an AGW believer. He is also a populist, career politition, so he will do what ever is needed to stay in power.

    Just recently Kevin Rudd said that reducing “carbon pollution” is the “biggest moral issue we face this century”. It appears that morals can be moved to fit his agenda.

    Trust me, you don’t want this bunch of Australians in charge of the world. Pity us, don’t congratulate us! AGW is a big political football in this country

    Andrew.

  26. C’mon Aussie c’mon. Keep this up and you can have the ashes (in the unlikely event of a repeat of 05)

  27. Hey! I know! Let’s ban R-744! I mean, banning R-12 worked. Why not just ban R-744 and call it a day?

  28. Looking Pedro X and my posts, it is necessary to explain that the Federal house can pass legislation but if it is not endorsed by the senate it cannot become law.

    Kevin Rudd (Prime Minister) has the majority in the House of Representatives but not in the Senate.

  29. Michael,
    If you want to put an Australian in charge of the world, I hope you are considering only kangaroos and koalas. I suppose a wombat would be OK as well, but please not an Australian politician.

  30. Carbon trading should be a crime punishable by 200 hours of community service. Anybody that buys into this hair brained idea should be forced to redo every year of schooling they ever had starting with kindergarten and ending with 12th grade, with an emphasis on learning the fundamentals of science, math and economics.

    Even if CO2 was a problem carbon trading could not possibly be the solution.
    Amazing how someone could try to get money to flow by getting people to behave in exactly the same way that they are now. Charging someone for it, and then claim that it is “solving” the CO2 problem.

  31. And in the U.S., House Reps Waxman & Markey find themselves facing a similar dilemma — their cap-and-trade fantasy faces the reality of not only Republican opposition, but that of Democrat opposition as well from members whose districts emit CO2 (where refineries or coal-fired power stations are located). They also fear doing something that’ll get killed in the Senate. So they’ve delayed their bill — and will probably keep on delaying it until it dies in committee.

    Let’s face it, despite their well deserved derision, politicians aren’t totally stupid. Faced with the prospect that voters in their district will rebel at what amounts to a major energy tax, each member will vote ‘No’ to anything that’ll hit his voters and get him kicked out of office.

  32. MikeN (21:48:52) :

    The GCMs are so hardwired with positive feedback on CO2 I doubt they ever show a decadal cooling.

  33. As an Australian skeptic I would not call this good news. Industrialized economies rely on energy. The threat of carbon taxation has caused a serious reduction in energy investment. The resulting energy insecurity is a major contributing factor in the present economic recession. Kevin Rudd’s spineless move will only serve to make the recession longer and deeper than it need be. I personally believe the faster politicians and the media admit to the errors, mendacity and malfeasance involved in the global warming hoax, the faster economies will recover. Kevin Rudd might have a chance at the next election if he admits to the truth about global warming before then. His present weaseling and delay benefits no one.

    Slightly O/T – Q. Why do surgeons find operating on politicians easy? A.They have no brains, no spine and no balls. The only two working parts are the mouth and the @$#hole, and those are interchangeable…

  34. Not on Australia, but on 2050 targets, this morning in ScienceDaily (As Swiss-Canadian, I perk up on publications like that – this review, quoting the Swiss author extensively, sets all the records straight… sarc off):

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090502092019.htm

    “The behaviour of CO2 in the atmosphere is best described as a full bathtub,” says Reo Knutti, professor at the Institute for Atmosphere and Climate at ETH Zurich, and co-author of one of the two studies. The inflow of the bathtub is large, but the drainage is small. The CO2 emissions are increasing every year, but the CO2 is only removed from the atmosphere very slowly. To not let the bathtub overflow, the inflow must thus be stopped early enough. “It is wrong to believe that the temperature will remain constant with constant emissions,” says Knutti.”

    The study represent more elaborate computer models “simulating thousands of combinations of scenarios and assumptions”

    but, here is the big question: Is the basic assumption correct? Namely the long residence time of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere? As someone who has worked on stable carbon isotope ratios as a bulk tracer of global carbon cycles in the early days (when each sample was purified ‘manually’ in an elaborate vacuum line and then run through a massive Mass Spec – 2 samples per hour…) I am with the short residence times observed and inferred by Segalstad, Spencer and used by Dyson (and many others).

    Wonder what esteemed WUWT commentators and the experts think about these next-gen super-computer models, that support politically correct policy pathways.

  35. Kevin Rudd said “Climate change is the great moral challenge of our generation” before the election.
    But he will delay ETS until after the next election.
    Is he waiting for the science to be validated, or is he just a socialist wimp?

  36. Every age has its peculiar folly: some scheme, project, or phantasy into which it plunges, spurred on by the love of gain, the necessity of excitement, or the mere force of imitation.

    —Charles Mackay,
    Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, 1841

  37. Putin must be rolling on the floor laughing at the USA’s idiocy.
    The sloshed vodka and smashed glasses at Medvedev’s house is off the scale.
    Western World (except Australia) shoots self in foot over idealogical fairytales of Global Warming.
    Tears of hyterical laughter shake the midnight hour.
    Nice USA doggie, roll over and you’ll get a carbon cookie.
    Play dead, and you can get Dog Tag with Hero Al Gore on it.
    You don’t have to worry about ANWR any more, Uncle Pooty will suck the oil from under the Ice Cap for you. Then Pooty will process it, pipe it over to Sarah’s place. You Betcha.
    Who will fork out $$$ for Carbon Credit IPO?
    You guessed it, the nations that sell the Fossil Fuels to the Fossil Fools.

  38. David Archibald (23:35:38) :

    For any WUWT readers in Melbourne on Sunday 24th May, I am presenting at a symposium at Monash University on Natural Climate Change. The symposium is being run by Professor Lance Endersbee. I am on a 3.15 pm – 44 slides in 25 minutes.

    Thanks David…not withstanding a global catastrophe I will be there.

  39. I don’t know about that, Leon. For a bunch of them in power, they really have themselves convinced that they are on a mission from Gore. A few of them woke up in the shower when the hot water heater petered out. As for the majority, Fossil Fools Day is every day.

  40. The Australian E.T.S. (Cap and Trade_) will never see the light of day. It’s political suicide in Australia. The people vote with their back pocket – The one with their wallet in.

    This ETS will be compromised again and then and put off until 2012 which will then become 2015 in which time climate hysteria will long be exposed.

    KRudds government panders to the minority parties to stay in power.

    The Minister of the Environment – Peter Garret is a former (and current) rock star and green activist. The Minister of climate change has been put in the unenviable position of pushing a barrow that even many members of her own government are sceptical about.

    Stay tuned to our Prime Minister Mr. KRudd. There seems to be a rumor around that he is looking more than a little interested in the opposing point of view.

    Australia had it’s own version of your current U.S. situation. 30 years ago. A socialist government was elected with it’s own Godlike charismatic leader. These socialists changed the social fabric of Australia and in doing so in a few short years plundered the nations wealth. This government was almost on the brink of bankruptcy when the Queens representative in Australia sacked the government.
    (The U.K. Queen was and still is the head of state in Australia)

    An election was held shortly after where the socialists were decimated at the ballot box.

    I can see similarities where the U.S. Going down the same path as we did then. Australia is still paying for that governments incompetency.

  41. An Australian in Charge

    Cmon Guys…You know that when the chips are down no matter what Australians have said beforehand they are extremely pragmatic and get in and do what’s necessary. Rudd said what he had to to get elected and now he’s doing what he has to to stay elected.

    When you have the wellbeing of 22 million people as your responsibilty it also provides some clarity to cut through ideology.

    Regards

    Michael

    PS, where on Earth did Penny Wong come from?

  42. Australian E.T.S. situation part II.

    Prime Minister Mr KRudd is a fluent Mandarin speaker with very close ties to the Chinese administration.

    Australia’s long time economic future is closely tied in with China.

    Chinese investment consortium’s are moving into Australia’s vast mineral deposits and are putting up big money (no doubt ex US ) to try and acquire some of Australia’s biggest mining companies and operations. This includes interest in Australia’s massive black coal and natural gas reserves – not to mention Iron ore,copper,gold etc etc etc.

    Australia’s mining companies are some of the biggest in the world.

    Australia’s power generation and public transport companies are for the most part privately owned. The Chinese consortium’s are looking into moving into and buying these assets.

    An ETS (Cap and Trade)will not suit China’s entrepreneurial ambitions at all.

    I don’t expect to see any Climate change initiatives on the Chinese mainland in the near distant future.

    On another note. Chinese car companies will be moving in to the Australian market in the next six months or so. It is expected that these imports will decimate the local car industry with their low pricing. Prices of their vehicles are expected to be 25% cheaper than the comparable vehicle from other manufacturers.

    The raw materials for these cars are sourced from Australia. Their factories are for the most part powered by Australian coal and gas.

  43. Still on the subject of Kevin Rudds Minister for the Evironment, Heritage, and the Arts Peter Garrett. In his time as a rock singer (it is not known if these antics continue in in parliament ) Wikopedia states, ‘He is known for his trademark “stiff and sudden” dance movements that resemble spastic tics in his performances and the promotional videos’.

  44. I am stunned and appalled by the ignorance of many posters. Global warming is not a hoax. Many of you appeared to have swallowed the lies concocted by the likes of ExxonMobil (http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.greenpeace.org%2Fusa%2Fnews%2Fexxonsecrets-2007&ei=M9z-SZnsJ5jMjAf_rZWsAw&usg=AFQjCNFvatGmrnzDKPvySyMGTiEnWYMN9Q&sig2=sE5CXxWOYLIv3-hPycOGfw). I am saddened and angry that we are still debating whether global warming is real or not and it is considered acceptable to delay anti-warming measures “for economic reasons”. Bloody hell – is the medium-term wellbeing of life on the planet not a good economic reason to do everything we can to halt global warming?

  45. Politicians the world over can back human caused global warming because they realise that climate change real or imaginary is or can be a very very slow process indeed.

  46. jorgekafkazar (23:02:26) :

    > Eco-initiatives have all the economic buoyancy of an osmium blimp.

    That’s a dense thing to say. :-)

  47. Biowrite.

    Stick around this blog for a while..
    You might learn some things that tickle your mind.

    Anthony Watts and other commentators here have not swallowed the concoctions of the likes of the multi-billion dollar industry of Big Carbon.

    BTW do you know which Big Oil company is the largest manufacturer of green energy products?

  48. Rudd is playing a smart move here. He doesnt have control of the upper house and wants it bad. This is a double dissolution stunt to gain ultimate power and invoke whatever carbon trading scheme he and senator Wong would like to dream up….beware.

  49. Biowrite – Ha ha ha, that’s a good parody of the typical braindead AGW rant! No facts, all emotion, and you even threw in the canard about how no more debate of any kind is acceptable! The sky is falling! the sky is falling! BRAWWWK!!!! Nice job.

  50. “biowrite (05:15:15) :

    I am stunned and appalled by the ignorance of many posters. Global warming is not a hoax. Many of you appeared to have swallowed the lies concocted by the likes of ExxonMobil (http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.greenpeace.org%2Fusa%2Fnews%2Fexxonsecrets-2007&ei=M9z-SZnsJ5jMjAf_rZWsAw&usg=AFQjCNFvatGmrnzDKPvySyMGTiEnWYMN9Q&sig2=sE5CXxWOYLIv3-hPycOGfw). I am saddened and angry that we are still debating whether global warming is real or not and it is considered acceptable to delay anti-warming measures “for economic reasons”. Bloody hell – is the medium-term wellbeing of life on the planet not a good economic reason to do everything we can to halt global warming?”

    Actually, it was Enron who “first” mooted the possibility of a “carbon trading system” (CO2 trading system, I wonder why), but go figure! I mean “big oil”, “big business” and big govn’t” in the “business” of “carbon trading”, you mean the “elite”? If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it is, by all reason and definition, a duck.

  51. biowrite (05:15:15) :

    I am stunned and appalled by the ignorance of many posters. Global warming is not a hoax. Many of you appeared to have swallowed the lies concocted by the likes of ExxonMobil

    ExxonMobil are not paying me anything. I prefer facts to speculation. If you want to claim that catastrophic climate change is happening/going to happen your evidence has to be beyond any reasonable doubt. Would you not agree?
    You have no such evidence. Theory suggests that the maximum that doubling CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere can do is increase temp by 1-2 C. Do you agree with this point?
    We have already had more than half this increase (logarithmic CO2/temp relationship). Temp looks OK to me.
    The Global Climatic Models assume feedbacks (mainly water vapour) ramping up a small increase caused by CO2. Why are these feedbacks not working?
    And if they existed, why did they not cause this effect with some other forcing e.g. climate optimum?

  52. “biowrite (05:15:15) :
    I am stunned and appalled by the ignorance of many posters. Global warming is not a hoax.”

    I used to believe in global warming until I opened my eyes and realised that what I was told was a pack of lies. Since you have come to this site, have a look at all the data that exists here. Read them and form your own opinions. For example, none of the following has anything to do with oil companies. In brief:
    a) The earth has been cooling for the last several years
    b) Antarctica is not melting
    c) The Arctic ice is nearly up to 1979 levels this winter
    d) The Sun, the source of global warmth, is not behaving as expected
    e) Hurricane intensity has dropped
    and so on. Unless global warming is capable of all of these things, there is something else going on and its not a warming Earth.

    The question, ultimately is, do you have the courage to open your mind to the information that exists outside of the global warming groups.

  53. Les

    You’re a little off with where the Oz coal exports go – it’s a common misconception that a lot goes to China. In fact, the major destinations are Japan and South Korea, with only 1% to mainland China, they’ve plenty of coal of their own.

    http://www.australiancoal.com.au/the-australian-coal-industry_coal-exports_coal-export-details.aspx

    Watch out, Rudd is a very skilled politician. The main (Liberal) opposition said we support an ETS, only 1-2 years later. Rudd needs their support to get this through the upper house, otherwise he needs the greens and the independents. Now Rudd has delayed 1 year, so the Libs look like they are nitpicking to oppose what they were asking for all along. Turnbull (Lib leader)might just find himself outmanoeuvred.

    have a nice day

  54. While my lefty liberal leanings are substantial in that I believe the Republican platform to be nothing more than big moral brother at its heart, I can be persuaded to join that party and leave my democratic and irreligious libertarianism behind if the Republican party were to remove all vestiges of its moral legislative intrusiveness into private lives. Why? As it stands, it seems that our democratic party has planked a similar big brother intrusiveness (moral faith based plank related to controlling my breathing and global climate change) for the same wrong reasons that the republican party has one (moral faith based plank related to control of my private life). If it weren’t for Ron Paul and his similar religious nonsense, I would have voted libertarianism in this last election. Bottom line, I can’t stand faith-based platitudes (be it Giah or God) in party planks, governmental programs and the politicians bent on ramming them down by throat.

    That said, I think it is more likely that the democratic party will discover they have been bamboozled regarding climate change way before the republican party will disavow their “god”. Too bad. They will miss the chance of the century to make a difference.

    It sounds as if Australian politicians are putting a toe in the water of “wait just a goddam minute” regarding CO2. Our republican party should take note. This is the republican’s ticket back to the majority party in power if they would just step outside the very private and personal god stuff I and many others detest so much.

  55. RESEARCH in Australia has found the heaviest element known to science, the element tentatively named Auspoliticum, has no protons or electrons and so has an atomic number of 0. However it does have 1neutron, 125 assistant neutrons, 75 vice neutrons, and 111 assistant neutrons, This gives it an atomic mass of 312.
    These 312 particles are held together by a force that involves the continuous exchange of rudd like particles called morons. It is also surrounded by vast lepton like particles called peons.
    Since it has no electrons, Auspoliticum is inert. However, it can be detected chemically as it impedes every reaction it comes in contact with. According to the discoverers, a minute amount of Auspoliticum causes one reaction to take over 4 weeks to complete when it would have normally occurred in less than one second.
    Auspoliticum has a normal half/life of approximately 3 years, at which time it does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which assistant neutrons, vice neutrons, and assistant vice neutrons exchange places. In fact, an Auspoliticums samples mass actually INCREASES over time, since with each reorganization some of the morons inevitably become neutrons, forming new isotopes. This characteristic of moron promotion leads some scientists to speculate that perhaps Auspoliticum is spontaneously formed whenever morons reach a certain quantity in concentration. This hypothetical quantity is referred to as critical morass.

  56. biowrite – I am stunned and appalled at the ignorance if the Warmists. I am saddened and angry that Warmists still insist that the debate is over.

    It isn’t.

    Maybe you should be examining the motivations of Al Gore who seems poised to make a mega-killing should cap and trade be passed into US law. You should also ask yourself why he won’t share a public platform with a so called denialists and have a public debate on the matter. Telling everyone the debate is over before it has even begun is the act of a charlatan who has something to hide.

    You might be willing to see third world countries penalised for daring to want energy. You might be willing to see Western countries adopt policies that will see technology smothered and destroyed. You might be willing to sacrifice the world’s poor so you can salve your eco-conscience. Realists are not.

    Science, not computer models, say you are wrong. Maybe if we had more science and less hystrionics and baseless alarmism we might get somewhere. No one denies that climate change exists. It’s always existed. Strange that the warmists have suddenly chosen to rename AGW as climate change given the latest scientific data that indicates a cooling trend. AGW weasel words do not alter facts.

    As for your link to the Greenpeace site – that’s more hysterical bilge. Greenies advocate the reduction of CO2, label it a pollutant. Maybe you should set fire to your hockey stick graph, remove the intellectual blinkers and discover for yourself the real relationship CO2 has with climate change. Be prepared for a shock.

  57. Biowrite: We do not care if your personality is so feeble as to postrate before the Prince of Darkness. That guy has fooled you, believe me.
    CO2 is the gas you exhale, it is not dark black as your prophet´s interests.
    If you are to back GW scam, don´t be fool, make “them” pay you for that in return, they are making a lot of money out of your sincere convictions.

  58. Robert Bateman (04:25:11) :

    “Putin must be rolling on the floor laughing at the USA’s idiocy”.

    YOU GOT IT FIRST!
    EVERYBODY IN THE WORLD LAUGHS AT YOU, BUT NOBODY WILL TELL IT TO YOU
    AS LONG AS YOU “HELP” THE WORLD WITH YOUR TAX MONEY!!
    YOU ARE IN THE “KING IS NAKED” SITUATION.
    How did you get so many idiots in just one generation?

  59. You are really omnivorous: You swallowed global warming, swine flu, whatsoever!
    Really funny!
    With the almost unique exception of WUWT. Hope WUWT will be remembered in the future for defending reason and common sense, against the idotic hordes.

  60. I don’t know the conversion equivalent of “$10 per tonne of carbon” is to $ per barrel of oil or $ per ton of coal. I suspect that it is a high tax relative to the overall energy costs.

    Businesses aren’t stupid; they don’t want to go bankrupt. (Fundamentally, I don’t believe planning to go bankrupt and expect a government bailout is good business plan) Businesses will look to minimize costs including energy costs. Obviously, governments need solvent business to maintain economy.

    Australia’s delay is a political stance. Officially, it is all for controlling CO2 emissions, but on a practical level there are international competitive advantages not taxing their export industries. What a Win-lose situation! Countries that don’t carbon tax “WIN, Governments that carbon tax “LOSE”!

  61. …They can take airplanes and drive SUVs. And pay me to just stay in bed.

    This just isn’t shovel-ready thinking. See Paul Krugman’s, “An Affordable Salvation” to see how a nobel-winning economist parses out the win-win economics of global warming.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/01/opinion/01krugman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

    The important thing is that the planet is in danger, and the longer we wait the worse it gets. But it is an extra reason to move quickly.

    So can we afford to save the planet? Yes, we can.And now would be a very good time to get started.

    Krugman has been passed over by Obama team recruiters once. If it happens again, it won’t be for lack of effort on his part.

  62. biowrite is stunned, appalled, saddened, and angry. That’s quite a list of emotions. However, biowrite did correct the problems with a strongly worded blog post, and a reference to an agenda-driven web site, thus changing the minds of everyone who stunned, appalled, saddened and angered him/her.

    Tell you what, biowrite, there is a LOT more agenda-driven manipulation and dishonesty coming from greenpeace than will EVER come from the entire oil industry.

  63. Bill P (08:16:18) :
    So can we afford to save the planet? Yes, we can.And now would be a very good time to get started.
    To what planet are you referring to?, to Venus perhaps?
    Because here, in the planet earth, our atmosphere can not hold enough warm as to heat up, it only holds 3,227 times less warm than water (volumetric heat capacity, ya know).
    In our planet earth we use to breath oxygen and exhale CO2 that plants breath, ya know.
    If deprived of CO2 our lungs overventilate, we feel dizzy, and our life span decreases, by increased oxydation, and we would die right away, ya know.
    Are you perhaps on Titan or Io? Tell us, we are interested in your very peculiar physiology, it’s quite awesome, ya know.
    We have been informed you have a King whou reigns over you with dictatorial powers, is he who you call AL the fatty fellow?

  64. >>Putin must be rolling on the floor laughing at the
    >>USA’s idiocy. The sloshed vodka and smashed glasses
    >>at Medvedev’s house is off the scale.

    That’s why Putin has been busy inflating all the temperatures in the Siberian region, to try and dupe the USA into believing AGW and thus joining the Carbon Credit pyramid-selling scheme. Russia got a whole load of Carbon Credits to trade, because of its high emissions – and an increase in price per CC would be really useful.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/15/giss-noaa-ghcn-and-the-odd-russian-temperature-anomaly-its-all-pipes/

    http://www.freezerbox.com/archive/article.php?id=499

    I like the analogy here between Carbon Credits and the Catholic Church’s old habit of selling indulgencies to sinners – it has a very familiar ring to it. Unfortunately, the EU has got this all a** about face, because we are the losers in this ‘indulgence game’, not the winners.

    .

  65. Biowrite is offended by our refusal to believe her religious convictions, it appears we are heretics who are blind to the sacred knowledge, it appears we must believe what the AGW/MMCC holy scripture orders and dictates?

    I sense an intolerence and hatred running through the post, like all beliefs that require obedience to the narrative dissent is abhorent, denial is a sin and the desire for actual facts instead of dogma is a terrible threat to their belief system.

    I also sense a certain desperation also, the heretics/infidels are reaching more and more people with rational arguments and sensible enquiry, the natural human instinct to question authority is a valuable gift and one that is a mortal enemy to monotheistic belief systems such as marxism etc.
    The AGW/MMCC narrative requires mindless obediance and the follower to abandon the human instinct of both free will and natural sceptisism, the invidual free will must be destroyed to make way for the will of the whole.
    The above description perfectly fits a dictatorship like the USSR or national socialist Germany.

    I am a heretic and I am a realist, I desire not doctrine but the truth, I demand nothing less than the right to control my own destiny and I will not be forced to believe those things I feel are wrong or contrary to reason, your truths and certainties are not my truths and certainties biowrite, where you seek to enforce mindless obediance to your narrative I seek to create my own narrative with all the free information I desire to find.

    I am proud to call myself a heretic and a sceptic.

  66. Re: Putin laughing….

    As it says in this article:

    Quote:
    Because the benchmark year for measuring reductions was set at 1990, the collapse of Russian industry after Perestroika guaranteed that Russia would not be close to that level by 2012, Kyoto’s deadline. Depending on the breaks, Russia may not approach 1990 levels for another 20 years.

    Thus not only does Russia not have to make any cuts in its emissions during the next four years, but it was handed thousands of Kyoto-stamped “emission reduction credits” — basically carbon stock that can be sold on the international market or saved for an unseasonably rainy day.
    Endquote.

    http://www.freezerbox.com/archive/article.php?id=499

    Thus any increase in CC price that Russia can wangle, via duping the USA into joining the CC trading scam, is free cash in Russia’s wallet. Knowing the Russians very well, I can promise you that organising a tweak here and there in the temperatures of their remote Siberian stations (which are difficult for any other nation to validate) would be absolute child’s play. In fact, everyone would be in on the game – anything to get one over on Uncle Sam.

  67. Biowrite: I have reconsidered my opinion and position: YOU ARE RIGHT, i must sincerely apologize, come on! save the planet!, meanwhile tell all those bad polluters to come to my country, all of them, US citizens and US corporations alike, you will be friendly wellcomed as you have allways been!

  68. On a slightly related note: Australia is one of several places that has had a drought reducing wheat yields. Heard on the news today was that Argentina may have the lowest wheat harvest in 100 years. I’ve collected some links here:

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/05/04/argentine-drought-crop-failure/

    Might I suggest a WUWT article on cold oceans, dry land, and the weather cycles of, oh, 1910 – 1930 or so when last the sun and oceans were acting sort of like they are now?

    IMHO, it is time to assure you have made reasonable preparations for a global reduction of crop yields from a turn to the cold and dry side… And hope that the Ministry of Stupidity does not make things worse as they have done with export restrictions in Argentina ( to keep enough crop at home, but discouraging farmers from growing since they instead grow a crop they can export for cash…)

    So with Argentina down for the count, Ukraine having so quality issues, Kansas having drought, Dakotas and related northern areas a bit late to plant, Texas drought, Canada frozen, and yes, Australia on the dry side; I think its going to be an interesting time in the ag commodity pits…

  69. Pamela Gray (07:06:28)

    well put! I am completely with you (I am not a US citizen, but several of my family are))

  70. I hereby offer options on carbon futures at $9 per ton delivered in 2012. I accept paypal.

  71. biowrite (05:15:15) :

    Oh dear, oh dear oh dear. Thousands of years of human evolution, exponential growth in technology and access to a wealth of knowledge via the internet, open access education and public libraries, and what are we left with? The blind leading the blind. Faith-based Mac-Science not worth the paper it is written on.

    At what point did science become a democratic (theocratic?) process? Einstein did not develop General Relatively based on a vote. Newton did not discover gravity through a lobby group or peer-pressure. Galileo did not determine that the Earth revolved around the Sun based on the “good word”.

    Please, please, please, put your blind faith behind you and go read some books, blogs and anything you can get your hands on – you might actually learn something. But from your attitude, it may be too late – like so many you appear to have donned the AGW goggles – doomed to only see what fits into your little linear plastic building block model of the world. Good luck to you.

    Meanwhile, the rest of us will continue to do what scientists should be doing – being skeptical, considering ALL the data, questioning the motives behind those who make surprising claims that “the science is settled”.

    Carl Sagan was correct on so many levels when he said that “science is a candle in the dark”…

  72. Is there a correlation between carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa and carbon emissions?

    Based on reports of oil and coal consumption the world is consuming 5% less of those two fuels. Yet the seasonally corrected CO2 trend keeps going up.

    Does this mean that if we reduce carbon fuel consumption atmospheric CO2 concentration goes up?

    Year M trend
    2008 1 385.18
    2008 2 384.89
    2008 3 384.41
    2008 4 384.44
    2008 5 385.42
    2008 6 385.53
    2008 7 385.88
    2008 8 385.87
    2008 9 386.37
    2008 10 386.31
    2008 11 386.24
    2008 12 386.34
    2009 1 386.68
    2009 2 386.58
    2009 3 387.24

    I am sure that I am missing something. Somebody set me straight.

  73. ecarreras (11:34:31) :I am sure that I am missing something. Somebody set me straight

    Mauna Loa IS A VOLCANO, and it’s increasing its CO2 emissions, Period.

  74. Bravo Alan Chappel – Wattsup best laugh of the day . Lets hope that the critical “Morass” can disappear in a black hole.

  75. Australian Geologist Prof. Ian Plimer writes in “The Australian” about his critics of his book “IN Heaven and Earth – Global Warming: The Missing Science”

    David Karoly a national embarrassment is addressed along with others. I saw an interview on ABC’s Lateline program where Tony Jones described the book as “The great global warming swindle part 2” and preceded to attack him with a single IPCC type argument “the last ten years has had so many off the hottest records in history etc etc”.

    The ABC needs to wake up and at least present an unbiased view.

    The article can be read here:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25429080-7583,00.html

  76. ecarreras (11:34:31) :

    “Based on reports of oil and coal consumption the world is consuming 5% less of those two fuels. Yet the seasonally corrected CO2 trend keeps going up.”

    The ice cores from Antarctica and elsewhere show that in deep time atmospheric CO2 levels always rise several hundred years AFTER temperatures warm – the leading theory being that warming oceans support less dissolved CO2 (i.e. warming leads to “outgassing”). There is not a single datapoint in those ice cores which would support a mechanism whereby CO2 rises first, causing temperatures to rise later – that just doesn’t happen. Additionally, there is no evidence from those ice cores which shows that temperatures have ever catastrophically ran away under some positive feedback mechanism as proposed in AGW theory.

    The raises the possibility that much of the CO2 increase we have seen in the last hundred years or so is largely natural and the RESULT OF (not the CAUSE of) warming temperatures since the last ice age. Of course, you wont see Al Gore or the Alarmists talk too much about that…

  77. Michael (04:58:22) :

    An Australian in Charge

    Cmon Guys…You know that when the chips are down no matter what Australians have said beforehand they are extremely pragmatic and get in and do what’s necessary. Rudd said what he had to to get elected and now he’s doing what he has to to stay elected.

    When you have the wellbeing of 22 million people as your responsibilty it also provides some clarity to cut through ideology.

    Regards

    Michael

    PS, where on Earth did Penny Wong come from?

    The assumption that Penny Wong is from the planet Earth is still to be tested…

  78. Have you ever wondered why our famous Peter Garrett is not the minister in charge of our ETS instead of Penny Wong ?. This high profile position would have suited this personable former lawyer.
    Who is the more expendable ?
    I think that this government’s ETS plan, even with its extension ,was planned to fail from the start of the Rudd government.
    If so, then start a plan of action to blame someone else and delay the start date.

  79. I agree that this is a political move, not a change of heart on AGW. But it will buy time for temperatures to fall a little more. Also time to read Ian Plimer’s book and time to give everyone you know a copy for Christmas.

  80. It looks hopeful for the opposition to take a stand
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25432145-601,00.html
    However, Mr Turnbull this morning said Ms Wong is living in a “fantasy” if she thinks Australia is going to set the agenda in Copenhagen.

    “That is a fantasy,” Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull told Fairfax Radio on Tuesday.

    There were other countries with emissions trading schemes that were not working.

    “The European scheme has been a debacle.”

    Mr Turnbull said putting a carbon price on an Australian industry competing with developing countries that did not have a carbon price was simply exporting jobs and emissions.

    He may be signalling a change in thinking.That statement is true,hopefully more people will realise it.

  81. >>>Is there a correlation between carbon dioxide measured at
    >>>Mauna Loa and carbon emissions?

    Quote:
    magma resupply to the shallow Mauna Loa reservoir is episodic and is associated with eruption; during repose, extensive CO2 degassing and a low rate of magma resupply minimizes the CO2 content of stored reservoir magma.
    Endquote

    http://www.volcanic.com/library/agumonograph/agumonograph.html

    Hmmm. Not the best site in the world for measuring CO2.

    .

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